NWS Little Rock, AR - Flooding Rain/Spotty Severe Storms on July 16-17, 2024

On the heels of the remnants of Hurricane Beryl (on July 8th/9th), another heavy rain event appeared imminent a week later (late on the 16th into the 17th). A slow moving cold front was set to encounter a very moist environment, and trigger thunderstorms loaded with water. On top of that, the steering flow (to push/guide storms) was weak, resulting in prolonged downpours. This was also going to happen at night while people were asleep. It was a recipe for significant and life threatening flash flooding.

Leading up to the deluge, the heat was miserable on the 16th. Most afternoon heat index values were in the triple digits, and a few heat indices were at/above 115 degrees. A persistent ridge of high pressure not only provided the heat, it was responsible for the aforementioned weak steering flow. 

Scattered storms started developing toward the Missouri border between 400 pm and 500 pm CDT on the 16th. The storms drifted to the south/east, and blew down trees at Strawberry (Lawrence County) and near Tuckerman (Jackson County). A 54 mph wind gust was measured at Newport (Jackson County). Cloudbursts generated several inches of rain in short order from Imboden to Smithville (both in Lawrence County). It was a precursor of more serious issues to come. As the evening wore on, a large area of showers and thunderstorms approached from Oklahoma, and everything went haywire.

Precipitation became more widespread and intense after midnight CDT, and continued into the morning of the 17th. Flippin (Marion County) picked up a whopping 5.76 inches of rain between 200 am and 500 am CDT.

Rainfall rates at Flippin (Marion County) were incredible early on July 17, 2024. From 200 am to 400 am CDT, 5.00 inches of rain dumped. In the next hour, another 0.76 inch of precipitation was measured. The two and three hour amounts exceeded what would be expected in a 1 in 1,000 year event (4.70 inches in two hours/5.39 inches in three hours) according to the NOAA Atlas 14. That's impressive!

At Yellville (Marion County), a nursing home had to be evacuated (at least eighty residents and patients) as water levels became dangerously elevated along Shawnee Town Branch. The local Marion County Courthouse flooded. Thirty to forty people in Flippin (Marion County) had to leave their homes and find shelter, as did up to a dozen guests at a motel. A swollen Fallen Ash Creek pushed a home off its foundation and entered a nearby church. Northwest of town, a bridge along a county road was taken out by strong currents on Moccasin Creek.

In addition to chaos in Marion County, much of a campground was submerged along South Sylamore Creek near Allison (Stone County), and campers were forced to exit. Highway 62 near Cotter (Baxter County) was under water, and a recreational vehicle became stranded. There was also a mudslide nearby. Highway 74 east of Marshall (Searcy County) was flooded, and many roads in the northeast part of the county were washed out. It was the same story in parts of Cleburne and Stone Counties (numerous roads damaged). At Heber Springs (Cleburne County), a few modular homes had water in them, and streets looked like lakes.

Sixty water miles (following Crooked Creek and the White River) to the east of Yellville (Marion County), Calico Rock (White County) had a two-day rainfall total of 4.82 inches (on July 17th/18th). The White River came up more than thirteen feet and topped out at 17.78 feet. The river had not been this high since March 25, 2023 (18.77 feet). More significantly, daily mean flow rates (on the 17th) were the highest for summer (June/July/August) since June 10, 2020. Before that, summer rates were not comparable until early June, 2011.

Farther south, an apartment complex in Greenbrier (Faulkner County) was swamped, as were multiple houses in Conway (Faulkner County). Numerous thoroughfares were impassible (and littered with stalled/stranded vehicles) including Highway 287 between Morrilton and Plumerville (both in Conway County).

While so much bad happened during this event, and it had all the markings of something deadly, the miracle that will be remembered most is there were no fatalities.

Once everything calmed down, a number of locations in the northern half of Arkansas were pounded with over six inches of rain. Forty eight hour totals through 700 am CDT on the 18th included 8.64 inches at Blanchard Springs (Stone County), 7.16 inches at Flippin (Marion County), 7.13 inches at Yellville (Marion County), 6.82 inches at Mountain View (Stone County), 6.61 inches at Greers Ferry Dam (Cleburne County), 6.50 inches at Heber Springs (Cleburne County), and 6.15 inches at Lead Hill (Boone County).

Looking more closely at Lead Hill (Boone County), there was a 5.70 inch amount on the 17th, which was the highest in one day since data collection began in 1927.