Historic Tornado Outbreak of November 17, 2013

 Overview:

Severe weather reports across the Midwest	Severe weather outlook from 7 am Sunday	Doppler indicated rotation tracks Washington Tornado

A major late-season severe weather outbreak occurred across the Midwest on Sunday, November 17, 2013.  Many tornadoes were reported, especially across Illinois and Indiana, and wind damage occurred from the Mississippi River eastward as far as New Jersey and New York City.

Tornado Information:

In central Illinois, survey teams evaluated 10 tornado tracks.  Survey assistance was provided by the NWS offices in Chicago and St. Louis.  Here are the maps for each track (click to enlarge):

A larger scale mapping all of the tracks is below (click image to enlarge). 

Summary Table:

Here is a summary of tornadoes in central, eastern and southeast Illinois:

Reports collected by the Storm Prediction Center are found at: 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/reports/?date=20131117&all#
 

Here is a link to radar loops - on the Chicago NWS office website of the Washington, IL tornado.
https://www.weather.gov/lot/17Nov2013#radar

Information from other nearby areas is available at the following links:

• NWS Chicago -- Northeast Illinois
• NWS North Webster, IN -- northern Indiana, far southwest Michigan, far northwest Ohio 
• NWS Indianapolis -- central Indiana
• NWS Paducah -- southern Illinois, western Kentucky, southern Indiana

Event Setup (by NWS Chicago:)

While severe thunderstorms are extremely complex, the ingredients they need to develop come down to a few simple ones:  1.)  warmth and moisture, which create instability  2.)  strong turning winds with height, creating wind shear and 3.) a focus such as a cold front. The stronger these parameters are, especially wind shear, the greater potential for tornadoes. 

In November, the environmental winds tend to be much stronger than in summer or even spring months.  This leads to even greater wind shear.  Normally though in late autumn and into winter, we do not have sufficient warmth and moisture for thunderstorm development.  A powerful low pressure system across the plains states had steered warmth and moisture northward for nearly two days, with moisture similar to summertime values (dew points in the mid 60s).  Given temperatures of around 70°, there was more than enough instability to get thunderstorms to go.  And this instability was actually off the charts for November.  Combine that with the high wind shear, and a cold front sweeping eastward, and you had all the ingredients you needed for thunderstorms, particularly supercells capable of tornadoes.  With the parameters all extremely high for any time of the year, long-lived significant tornadoes became likely.

The image at left shows the surface observations across the Midwest on November 17.  The colored shades represent the dew point temperatures.  The dark green and blue shades represent dew points in the 60s, while the orange and red shades represent dew points in the 40s and 30s respectively. In the right image, going clockwise from top left:  deep layer wind shear, low level wind shear, cloud base heights, and deep layer instability. Click images to enlarge.

Forecast Information:

	The potential for severe weather was detected several days in advance.  As early as Thursday morning, November 14, most of central and southeast Illinois was included in the severe weather outloook for Sunday.  At that range, areas are highlighted if there is at least a 30% chance of receiving severe weather.  The outlook from late Saturday morning, shown at left, indicates a 45% chance of severe weather over much of the Midwest, and a 10% chance of seeing significant severe weather (defined as either tornadoes of at least EF-2 strength, winds of 75 mph, hail of at least 2" in diameter, or any combination thereof) with 25 miles of any given point.
	Around midnight Sunday morning, the outlook from the Storm Prediction Center highlighted eastern Illinois as being in a "high risk" of severe weather, and by the 7 am update, expanded it further west to near I-55.  The graphic at left shows the tornado probability map for Sunday, from the 7 am update.  The purple shades indicate at least a 30% chance of tornadoes, with a 15% chance in red.  The hatched areas again indicate there is a least a 10% chance of tornadoes of at least EF-2 strength.
	At 8:40 am, Tornado Watch #561 was issued for most of Illinois.  SPC declared this as a "Particularly Dangerous Situation" (PDS) watch, meaning there was a threat for several intense, long-track tornadoes, potential for many reports of large hail over 2 inches in diameter, and damaging wind gusts potentially in excess of 80 mph. The NWS offices in Lincoln, Chicago, Milwaukee, Davenport, and St. Louis participated in a conference call with SPC around 8:30 am to discuss the issuance of this watch.

Additional Reports: Wind and Hail

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 AM     TSTM WND GST     JACKSONVILLE            39.73N 90.23W
11/17/2013  M52.00 MPH       MORGAN             IL   AWOS

1025 AM     HAIL             2 S PRINCEVILLE         40.90N 89.76W
11/17/2013  M0.88 INCH       PEORIA             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

1045 AM     TSTM WND GST     PEORIA INTERNATIONAL AI 40.67N 89.68W
11/17/2013  M70.00 MPH       PEORIA             IL   ASOS

1059 AM     TSTM WND GST     3 SW PEORIA             40.71N 89.65W
11/17/2013  M58.00 MPH       PEORIA             IL   ASOS

1101 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 W HOPEDALE            40.42N 89.46W
11/17/2013  M56.00 MPH       TAZEWELL           IL   MESONET

            IDOT STATION ON I-155 WEST OF HOPEDALE

1109 AM     HAIL             2 S PHILADELPHIA        39.89N 90.12W
11/17/2013  M0.88 INCH       CASS               IL   MESONET

1110 AM     TSTM WND DMG     HENRY                   41.11N 89.36W
11/17/2013                   MARSHALL           IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ONE TREE UPROOTED AND TEN INCH DIAMETER PINE TREE SNAPPED
            OFF AND BLOWN AGAINST A HOUSE. DELAYED REPORT.

1110 AM     HAIL             1 W METAMORA            40.79N 89.38W
11/17/2013  M1.00 INCH       WOODFORD           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

1117 AM     TSTM WND DMG     HARTSBURG               40.25N 89.44W
11/17/2013                   LOGAN              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEMI BLOWN OVER ON I-155. TIME ESTIMATED.

1122 AM     TSTM WND DMG     PETERSBURG              40.01N 89.85W
11/17/2013                   MENARD             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE LIMBS DOWN

1125 AM     HAIL             1 N PETERSBURG          40.03N 89.85W
11/17/2013  M1.75 INCH       MENARD             IL   MESONET

1126 AM     HAIL             PETERSBURG              40.01N 89.85W
11/17/2013  E1.00 INCH       MENARD             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

1126 AM     HAIL             MCLEAN                  40.32N 89.17W
11/17/2013  M1.00 INCH       MCLEAN             IL   PUBLIC

1128 AM     HAIL             2 NW ARMINGTON          40.36N 89.34W
11/17/2013  M1.00 INCH       TAZEWELL           IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

1128 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 NW ARMINGTON          40.36N 89.34W
11/17/2013  M70.00 MPH       TAZEWELL           IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

1130 AM     TSTM WND DMG     GREENVIEW               40.08N 89.74W
11/17/2013                   MENARD             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LARGE TREES DOWN ON RT. 29 AND POWERLINES DOWN.

1135 AM     TSTM WND GST     3 W GALESBURG           40.95N 90.44W
11/17/2013  M64.00 MPH       KNOX               IL   AWOS

1135 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 ENE GALESBURG         40.96N 90.34W
11/17/2013  M65.00 MPH       KNOX               IL   MESONET

            IDOT STATION ON I-74 AT RAILROAD CROSSING SOUTH OF US-34
            EXIT

1135 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 ESE BLOOMINGTON       40.47N 88.96W
11/17/2013  M67.00 MPH       MCLEAN             IL   MESONET

            APRS MESONET

1141 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 N SPRINGFIELD         39.84N 89.64W
11/17/2013  M62.00 MPH       SANGAMON           IL   ASOS

1150 AM     TSTM WND GST     MORRISONVILLE           39.42N 89.46W
11/17/2013  M60.00 MPH       CHRISTIAN          IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

1150 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S TAYLORVILLE         39.51N 89.26W
11/17/2013                   CHRISTIAN          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINES DOWN

1153 AM     HAIL             7 E MORRISONVILLE       39.42N 89.33W
11/17/2013  M1.00 INCH       CHRISTIAN          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

1155 AM     TSTM WND GST     TAYLORVILLE AIRPORT     39.53N 89.33W
11/17/2013  M69.00 MPH       CHRISTIAN          IL   AWOS

1157 AM     HAIL             NORMAL                  40.52N 89.00W
11/17/2013  M2.75 INCH       MCLEAN             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            IN WEST NORMAL

1157 AM     TSTM WND DMG     NORMAL                  40.52N 89.00W
11/17/2013                   MCLEAN             IL   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN ON NORTH SIDE OF NORMAL.

1200 PM     HAIL             2 SW BLOOMINGTON        40.46N 89.00W
11/17/2013  M4.00 INCH       MCLEAN             IL   PUBLIC

            MEASURED 3.75 INCH DIAMETER. LOCATED 1.5 MILES WEST OF
            INTERSECTION OF SIX POINTS ROAD AND OAKLAND AVE. REPORT
            RECEIVED VIA FACEBOOK.

1203 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 N ROSAMOND            39.40N 89.16W
11/17/2013  E70.00 MPH       CHRISTIAN          IL   FIRE DEPT

1208 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 5 E WAYNESVILLE         40.24N 89.03W
11/17/2013  E56.00 MPH       DE WITT            IL   MESONET

            APRS MESONET

1213 PM     TSTM WND GST     BLOOMINGTON AIRPORT     40.48N 88.92W
11/17/2013  M58.00 MPH       MCLEAN             IL   ASOS

1214 PM     HAIL             ASSUMPTION              39.52N 89.05W
11/17/2013  M2.75 INCH       CHRISTIAN          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

1215 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE BLOOMINGTON AIRPO 40.48N 88.90W
11/17/2013                   MCLEAN             IL   PUBLIC

            LARGE POWER LINES DOWN ALONG TOWANDA BARNES ROAD.

1228 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SAYBROOK                40.43N 88.53W
11/17/2013                   MCLEAN             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL TREES UPROOTED. NUMEROUS HOMES WITH SHINGLE
            DAMAGE. TIME ESTIMATED.

1230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S FINDLAY             39.51N 88.75W
11/17/2013                   SHELBY             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL POWER POLES SNAPPED OFF.

1231 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 W HAVANA              40.30N 90.08W
11/17/2013  M59.00 MPH       FULTON             IL   MESONET

            IDOT STATION US-136 AT LACY DITCH

1240 PM     TSTM WND GST     SEYMOUR                 40.10N 88.42W
11/17/2013  E70.00 MPH       CHAMPAIGN          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

1245 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GALTON                  39.74N 88.30W
11/17/2013                   DOUGLAS            IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GRAIN ELEVATOR DAMAGED

1248 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S PESOTUM             39.88N 88.27W
11/17/2013                   CHAMPAIGN          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL GRAIN BINS DESTROYED. POWER LINES DOWN. GARAGE
            DAMAGED.

1253 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG JEROME                  39.77N 89.68W
11/17/2013                   SANGAMON           IL   MESONET

            POWER LINES DOWN. DELAYED REPORT.

0100 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 N NEWMAN              39.87N 87.99W
11/17/2013                   DOUGLAS            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS POWER POLES AND TREES DOWN. POLE BARN ROOF BLOWN
            OFF.

0100 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 WNW PEKIN             40.57N 89.65W
11/17/2013  M58.00 MPH       TAZEWELL           IL   MESONET

            IDOT STATION ON IL-9 AT MCNAUGHTON BRIDGE

0103 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 S JACKSONVILLE        39.69N 90.23W
11/17/2013  M60.00 MPH       MORGAN             IL   MESONET

            IDOT STATION I-72 AT IL-267 EXIT

0111 PM     TSTM WND GST     WESTVILLE               40.04N 87.64W
11/17/2013  M69.00 MPH       VERMILION          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

0111 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S DANVILLE            40.10N 87.62W
11/17/2013                   VERMILION          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROOF OFF HOUSE

0131 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 WSW EAST PEORIA       40.67N 89.57W
11/17/2013  M60.00 MPH       TAZEWELL           IL   MESONET

            IDOT STATION US-24/150 MCCLUGGAGE BRIDGE

0154 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 E DECATUR             39.85N 88.88W
11/17/2013  M60.00 MPH       MACON              IL   ASOS

0215 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NNW DECATUR           39.91N 88.96W
11/17/2013  M55.00 MPH       MACON              IL   MESONET

            IDOT STATION I-72 AT US-36/51

0224 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST WILLARD AIRPORT         40.04N 88.28W
11/17/2013  M59.00 MPH       CHAMPAIGN          IL   ASOS

0245 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST COLES COUNTY AIRPORT    39.48N 88.28W
11/17/2013  M54.00 MPH       COLES              IL   ASOS

0306 PM     TSTM WND GST     LAWRENCEVILLE AIRPORT   38.76N 87.61W
11/17/2013  M64.00 MPH       LAWRENCE           IL   ASOS