Spring 2025 Climate Outlook for southeastern North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina

The winter of 2024-2025 defied expectations and was unusually cold across the eastern portions of North and South Carolina.  Measured by average temperature it was the coldest winter Wilmington and surrounding cities have experienced in 11 years.  

The winter also brought a significant winter storm on January 21-22, unofficially the largest snowfall in Myrtle Beach in 35 years.  La Niña likely helped contribute to consistently dry weather and worsening drought conditions.  Winter rainfall totals were the driest in 14 years in Wilmington, Myrtle Beach, Florence, and Lumberton.

Official outlooks from the NWS Climate Prediction Center show an increased likelihood of above normal temperatures this spring across the southeastern United States.  Rainfall outlooks show no departure from climatological chances through the spring months.

La Niña Should End

This winter experienced weak La Niña as sea surface temperatures across the tropical East Pacific Ocean ran 0.50° to 0.75°C below normal.  La Niña is the cold phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a naturally occurring shift in water temperatures across the tropical Pacific Ocean that brings global weather and climate impacts.

Climate models suggest La Niña will end this spring, replaced by neutral ENSO conditions that may last through the coming summer months.  Unlike during the winter where La Niña is normally associated with mild weather across the Carolinas, this relationship breaks down during the spring and there is little linkage between ENSO phase and temperatures across the Carolinas.  If weak La Niña were to last into the spring, local climatology suggests it may boost the potential that we remain unusually dry.

Drought and Wildfire Risk

The U.S. Drought Monitor shows that the Carolinas are currently experiencing moderate to locally severe drought conditions.  This is due to persistently below normal rainfall over the past six months.  The three months of climatological winter (December 2024 through February 2025) were particularly dry and all four of local long-term climate monitoring stations recorded their driest winter seasons in 14 years. 

Outlooks from the NWS Climate Prediction Center show that drought will likely persist through the spring months.  This will be true even if rainfall were to return to near normal values.  

The combination of water loss due to evaporation plus water usage by plants, together termed evapotranspiration, increases dramatically during the spring.  It would take above normal rainfall amounts to meet this increasing evapotranspiration demand plus overcome the accumulated rainfall deficits of the past six months.  Those with agricultural or water supply responsibilities may need to consider enacting plans to deal with persistent drought this spring.

Dry and windy weather led to multiple wildfires across the eastern Carolinas beginning on March 1.  Forecast rainfall and drought unfortunately suggest the risk of wildfire will remain higher than normal through the remainder of the spring across eastern portions of North and South Carolina.  Wildland Fire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) state "longer term precipitation deficits are extremely concerning" and additional lightning started fires could become an issue later in the spring.

Red areas on the maps below indicate where NIFC meteorologists have specific concerns about an above average wildland fire season this spring.

Last Spring Freeze

Across our portion of the eastern Carolinas the last freezing temperatures of spring typically occur during March or early April.  There is considerable year-to-year variability depending on local weather patterns. The date of the last freeze begins the agricultural growing season when tender blooming plants and annuals can safely withstand outdoor weather conditions.

Beginning March 14, the National Weather Service in Wilmington will issue frost advisories and freeze warnings in advance of any forecast cold weather conditions that could be hazardous to tender plants.

Coastal Flooding

There are two periods of concern for coastal flooding this spring, both associated with New Moons in late April and late May.  Astronomical tides alone during both of these periods could approach within 0.5 feet of minor flood stage at the beaches.  If a storm system is near the area or if strong onshore winds are occurring during these times, coastal flooding could easily occur. 

Our most significant coastal flooding usually occurs during late summer and fall during tropical cyclones or in the winter during strong Nor'easter storm systems.  You can monitor total water level forecasts incorporating tides, storm surge, and other factors for three locations in our area using these links:

• Wrightsville Beach, NC
• Myrtle Beach, SC
• Cape Fear River at Wilmington, NC

Links of Interest

• NWS Climate Prediction Center
• Current ENSO Status Update
• Climatological Last Spring Freeze Dates for Local Cities
• Daily Normals and Records for Wilmington | Florence | N. Myrtle Beach | Lumberton

Research and Page Author: Tim Armstrong
Last Updated: March 9, 2025