2024 Spring Climate Outlook for eastern North and South Carolina

After a mild winter season that saw no snow across the eastern Carolinas and only one notable outbreak of arctic air, the NWS Climate Prediction Center is forecasting slightly increased chances for above normal temperatures through May.  Precipitation outlooks show an increased chance for above normal rainfall this spring. 

El Niño

El Niño began last summer and continues now at the beginning of March.  El Niño is part of a natural variation in tropical Pacific Ocean water temperatures called ENSO -- the El Niño Southern Oscillation.  ENSO's periodic shifts from El Niño to La Niña bring changes in weather across the globe. 

El Niño's most dramatic impact across the Carolinas is a tendency for increased wintertime rainfall.  It's likely El Niño was a contributing factor to the flooding rain we saw in December which included 14 to nearly 16 inches in Georgetown, SC along with significant flash flooding from Georgetown north into Conway.  

The strength of El Niño is measured by how far above normal ocean surface temperatures run across the tropical east Pacific Ocean.  This winter's El Niño had a peak ocean temperature anomaly of +2.0 degrees Celsius during the November through January time period, preliminarily making this a 'strong' event.  This current El Niño episode is expected to end later this spring, replaced by the neutral phase of ENSO.  Chances for La Niña, the opposite phase of ENSO, appear to be growing for this summer into the upcoming fall.

• What are El Niño and La Niña? from the National Ocean Service...

Over the past 50 years there have been five times when El Niño ended during the spring and was replaced by neutral ENSO conditions: 2016, 2010, 1998, 1973, and 1966.  The concept of analog forecasting often allows us to look back at those years when ENSO behaved similarly to what we expect this year to gain an idea how this season might turn out.  However data from NOAA's Physical Sciences Laboratory shows that ENSO's phase (El Niño, neutral, or La Niña) has virtually no correlation to spring temperatures across the Carolinas and only a modest correlation with spring rainfall.  Other seasons of the year have stronger temperature and rainfall correlations to ENSO phase, making it an important factor in seasonal forecasting -- just not during the spring.  The Climate Prediction Center's outlook for this spring is based on blends of long-range climate models with the overall trend toward warmer temperatures as a consequence of climate change.

Last Spring Freeze

The average date of the last spring freeze varies from March 13 in Georgetown, SC to April 4 in Lumberton, NC.  There is significant variability in the date of the last freeze from year to year based on weather conditions.  Click in the map or table below for an historic review of spring freeze dates for various sites across the eastern Carolinas.

Above average temperatures in late January and throughout February caused plants to bloom and leaf out ahead of their normal schedule.  A tally of Growing Degree Days, a measure of how favorable temperatures have been for promoting plant growth, showed values 50 to 100 units above normal at the end of February. This means trees, bushes, and grasses are experiencing advanced levels of growth for this early in the year.  Even if the last spring freeze were to occur near the climatological date, there may still be adverse agricultural impacts experienced. 

• Tips on Protecting Plants During Freezes from NC State Agricultural Extension

Rainfall and Drought

Spring can be one of the drier times of the year across the eastern Carolinas with monthly average rainfall totals less than 3 inches for many locations.  This is because the jet stream lifts northward during the spring bringing fewer wet storm systems our way, but humidity usually hasn't increased enough to support widespread afternoon thunderstorms like we experience during the summer.

Drought conditions improved significantly over the winter and only small portions of the Pee Dee region and southeastern North Carolina are currently classified as "abnormally dry," the lowest classification of drought used in the U.S. Drought Monitor.  With El Niño likely to continue through at least the early portion of spring, increased chances of above normal seasonal rainfall appear likely.  Given current conditions and predicted precipitation amounts, the Climate Prediction Center is predicting no significant potential for drought this spring.

• Current U.S. Drought Monitor - Southeast Sector (updated weekly)
• Latest NWS Climate Prediction Center Drought Information Page

Spring usually sees a shift in the character of rainfall as the season progresses.  Periodic winter-like rain in early spring become less common in April and May, replaced by shorter but heavier showers and thunderstorms.  The potential for severe thunderstorms also increases throughout the spring, driven by warming temperatures from longer days and higher sun angles. 

Tornadoes not associated with tropical cyclones and large hail are more common during the spring than at any other time of the year across the eastern Carolinas.  Local studies indicate 80 percent of all local reports of hail tennis ball size or larger have occurred during the month of May.  

A detailed climatology of severe weather across the area served by the National Weather Service in Wilmington is available at https://weather.gov/ilm/SevereClimo

Wildfire Risk

Forecasters with the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) monitor trends in drought, fuel moisture, and plant growth to create maps highlighting the hazards posed by wildfire. Their outlook shows a below normal wildfire risk for March and April, then a near normal risk in May.  Spring is still the peak time for wildfires across eastern North and South Carolina.  Strong sunshine, relatively low rainfall totals, and frequent cold fronts followed by dry winds can set the stage for conditions that can favor the rapid spread of wildfire.

Avoid outdoor burning on days when low humidity and gusty winds coexist.  Even with the outlook for below normal wildfire risk, check the latest Fire Weather Forecast to see if conditions will allow safe burning.

• National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) Outlook
• Southern Area Fire Environment Outlook (NIFC)

Coastal Flooding

Full moons will occur this spring on March 25, April 23, and May 23, and new moons will occur on March 10, April 8, and May 7. 

There are two periods of potential concern when astronomical tides will be unusually high and coastal flooding could easily develop: April 8-9 and May 7-8, both associated with new moons.  Any period of strong onshore winds or nearby significant low pressure could still result in minor coastal flooding this spring. 

For official astronomical tide predictions, please see the NOAA Tides and Currents page.  For local Total Water Forecasts that incorporate the predicted effects of weather and wind on coastal water levels, check our local forecast pages for Wrightsville Beach, Myrtle Beach, and the Cape Fear River at Downtown Wilmington.  For coastal flooding outlooks extending out farther in time, check the National Ocean Service's Monthly High Tide Flooding Outlook.

Additional Information

• NWS Climate Prediction Center
• El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Blog on Climate.gov
• ENSO Model Guidance from Columbia University
• Daily Normals and Records for Wilmington | Florence | N. Myrtle Beach | Lumberton

Page Updated:  March 8, 2024
Research and Page Author: Tim Armstrong