Tropical Storm Fred - 2021

Photos & Video & Tweets

Storm Surge - Franklin/Gulf County
Elevated Surf at St. George Island.  Image: Franklin County Sheriff Office.	Surge at the St. George Island Bridge. Image: Franklin County Sheriff Office	Sea Turtle nests were destroyed by the storm surge.  Photo: ConeHeads8020 Twitter.	Surge flooding at Indian Pass. Including a car that drove around barricades and became stuck.

Storm History

Information is preliminary and could change with the release of the National Hurricane Center's final report of Tropical Storm Fred (found here when available). 

The National Hurricane Center began tracking a disturbance east of the Virgin Islands and designated the system as a Potential Tropical Cyclone 6 on August 9th. The initial forecast called for a west-northwest track across the Caribbean Islands under the influence of a subtropical ridge to the north. The system was upgraded to Tropical Storm Fred on the 10th and attention to Fred across our forecast area increased as the potential for impacts grew. The combination of land interaction with the rugged/mountainous terrain of Hispaniola and wind shear from an upper low over FL resulted in Fred weakening to a tropical depression the following day. Further interaction with the Greater Antilles caused Fred to open into a wave (a system with no closed circulation) as it emerged into the extreme southeast Gulf on the 14th. This change prompted NHC to designate the system as “Remnants of Fred”, leading to a discontinuation of active warnings in the Keys at the time.

By the early morning hours of the 15th, a Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the FL Panhandle and coastal Franklin County, as the forecast called for a north-northwest motion around the western periphery of the aforementioned ridge. Fred was also forecast to become a tropical storm once again prior to landfall. The Remnants of Fred then regained tropical storm status later that morning on the 15th and watches along the northern Gulf coast were upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning. Fred steadily strengthened over the warm Gulf waters until landfall near Cape San Blas, with max sustained winds of 65 mph on the 16th. Rapid weakening ensued as Fred moved inland and became post-tropical on the 17th near central AL/GA. 

One of the defining traits of Fred was its disorganized nature through much of it's life up until landfall on Monday afternoon August 16th. The models struggled greatly with this disorganized nature of Fred, as they normally do with disorganized systems. That is one reason track forecasts shifted steadily back east the 24 hours prior to landfall. This trend, is not unusual for disorganized storms, but it is another reminder that folks need to always be ready for the uncertainty in tracks. It's also important to remember that impacts occur outside the forecast cone.  

The cumulative storm history from Fred.	Satellite imagery from Fred's beginning stages, this was just before it was named a tropical depression.

Useful Links

Local Post Tropical Cyclone Report.

National Hurricane Center's Tropical Cyclone Report (When Available).

Storm Surge

Even a tropical storm can produce life-threatening storm surge in Apalachee Bay, and that was the case with Fred. As Fred gained strength and focused on the Eastern Florida Panhandle, this set the stage for a long period of onshore flow into Apalachee Bay ahead of the storm that would maximize around the time of landfall. Forecasts for 3-5 feet of storm surge were realized on Monday afternoon as Fred neared Cape San Blas. The tide gauge in Apalachicola recorded around 3.4 feet of storm surge. The surge impacts from Cape San Blas to St Marks were fairly typical for this amount of surge with some areas along the coast inundated. However, the flooding could have been worse had Fred made landfall just a few hours later, near the time of high tide across Apalachee Bay. As Fred moved inland Monday evening, winds over Apalachee Bay diminished and water levels decreased before the high tide Monday night. 

Hydrograph at the Gulf of Mexico Tide Gauge at Apalachicola during Fred. This shows the peak inundation (approximately 3.37 ft MHHW).	Hydrograph at Searcy Creek at White City during Fred. This shows the peak inundation (approximately 2.40 ft MHHW).	Hydrograph at Shell Point during Fred. This shows the peak inundation (approximately 2.41 ft MHHW).	Hydrograph at Jackson River during Fred. This shows the peak inundation (approximately 2.67 ft MHHW).

SURGE REPORTS

MAXIMUM OBSERVED WATER LEVEL (WL)...
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ID     CITY/TOWN       COUNTY     STATE  WL  DATUM  DATE/   SOURCE
       OR LOCATION                      (FT)        TIME
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APCF1  APALACHICOLA    FRANKLIN     FL  3.37 MHHW   16/2018 NOS     
29.7267  -84.9817

JRAF1  JACKSON RIVER A FRANKLIN     FL  2.67 MHHW   16/2130 USGS    
29.7694  -85.0842

SHPF1  SHELL POINT     WAKULLA      FL  2.41 MHHW   16/1218 OTHER   
30.0600  -84.2906

SEWF1  WHITE CITY      GULF         FL  2.40 MHHW   16/2345 OTHER   
29.8849  -85.2197

SBIF1  SPRING CREEK    WAKULLA      FL  2.31 MHHW   16/1245 USGS    
30.0800  -84.3298

PCBF1  PANAMA CITY BEA BAY          FL  1.84 MHHW   16/0812 NOS     
30.2133  -85.8783

PACF1  PANAMA CITY MAR BAY          FL  1.82 MHHW   16/1112 NOS     
30.1523  -85.6669

SUWF1  SUWANNEE        DIXIE        FL  1.70 MHHW   16/1315 USGS    
29.3281  -83.1440

STIF1  STEINHATCHEE    TAYLOR       FL  1.49 MHHW   16/1100 OTHER   
29.6761  -83.3962

NUTF1  NUTALL RISE     TAYLOR       FL  1.35 MHHW   16/1215 USGS    
30.1497  -83.9642

EFSF1  ECONFINA RIVER  TAYLOR       FL  1.33 MHHW   16/1230 USGS    
30.0681  -83.8987

FRHF1  FENHOLLOWAY RIV TAYLOR       FL  1.16 MHHW   16/1215 USGS    
30.0113  -83.7776