SOUTH FLORIDA CLIMATE PAGE

 

 

ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

 

 

PLOTS AND DATA

Link to South Florida Climate Plots and Data (Miami (MIA), Fort Lauderdale (FLL), West Palm Beach (PBI) and Naples (APF)).

Link to NWS Miami Climate Web Page 

 Lastest MIA moisture evaluation compared to the average

Link to South Florida Climate History

 

 

EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) And EFFECTS ON SOUTH FLORIDA

 

 

El Niño

Warming of the Pacific Waters

 

 

La Niña

Cooling of the Pacific Waters

 

 

For a Weak El Nino, the difference in the average water temp in the Central Pacific needs to be at least +0.5C, A moderate El Nino the difference in water temp needs to be between +1.0C and +1.5C, and a Strong El Nino the difference in water temp needs to be above +1.5C. For a weak La Nina condition, the difference in the average water temp needs to be at least -0.5C, for a moderate La Nina the difference in water temp needs to be between -1.0C and -1.5C, and for a strong La Nina the difference in water temp needs to be below -1.5C. Here is the link to Climate Prediction Center outlook for the ENSO Conditions. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Sea.gif

 

South Florida winters are usually dry and warm during La Niña conditions, while El Niño conditions usually bring cool and wet conditions to our region. ENSO effects on South Florida are rather minimal during the summer months, with the exception of tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Basin. 

For more information on  La Nina/El Nino click here. 

 

 

The affects on South Florida Weather from the ENSO Conditions (El Nino, La Nina)

 La NIna Conditions                                                El Nino Conditions

 

 

You can also obtain historical distributions of 3-month temperature and precipitation associated with 3 different ENSO categories - El Nino, La Nina, and Neutral events for a climate division. For South Florida, please click on number 68.

 

 

Here is the Average possibility of Freeze and Hard Freeze for Florida for the La Niña, Neutral and El Niño phases of ENSO.

(data source is from AgroClimate center of the Southeast United states)

 

Average Possibility of Freeze

 

 

Average Possibility of Hard Freeze

 

 

 North American Oscillation (NAO)

While ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) plays a key role in winter weather conditions over most of the globe, including South Florida, other regional oscillations can also influence winter temperatures and precipitation over South Florida. One of these oscillations is the North Atlantic Oscillation, or NAO.

When the wintertime NAO is in a positive phase, South Florida typically experiences near to above normal temperatures due to the jet stream being located far to the north over the Great Lakes and Northeast United States, which allows for the Atlantic subtropical high to position itself near or over the Southeastern United States. This usually causes east and southeast winds from the warm Atlantic waters to blow across South Florida, with the subtropical high blocking the southward movement of any Arctic or Polar air masses.

When the wintertime NAO is in a negative phase, South Florida usually has below normal temperatures due to the jet stream shifting farther to the south over the southeastern United States. This jet stream configuration allows for cold air outbreaks of Arctic or Polar origin to plunge south and deep into the Southeast United States, including Florida.

A strong NAO phase can either override or enhance the overlying ENSO pattern. An example of this was the winter of 2010 when a strongly negative NAO phased with a strong El Niño to produce colder and wetter than normal conditions across South Florida.

(*The NAO is usually forecast for two weeks ahead for the Jet Stream position*)

Link to Current forecast for NAO   

 

 

Arctic Oscillation (AO)

(from State Climate Office Of North Carolina)

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is a climate index of the state of the atmospheric circulation over the Arctic. It consists of a negative phase, featuring below average geopotential heights, which are also referred to as negative geopotential height anomalies, and a positive phase in which the opposite is true. In the negative phase, the polar low pressure system (also known as the polar vortex) over the Arctic is weaker, which results in weaker upper level winds (the westerlies). The result of the weaker westerlies is that cold, Arctic air is able to push farther south into the U.S., while the storm track also remains farther south. The opposite is true when the AO is positive: the polar circulation is stronger which forces cold air and storms to remain farther north. The Arctic Oscillation often shares phase with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and its phases directly correlate with the phases of the NAO concerning implications on weather across the U.S.

 

 

 

AVERAGE FREEZE DATES FOR SOUTH FLORIDA

FREEZE DATES FOR SOUTH FLORIDA

 

OUTLOOKS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA

 

 

 

 

 

 

Drought Status for South Florida

  

 

US Seasonal Drought Outlook

 

Here is a link to the current drought status cross South Florida. 

NOAA National Drought Web Site

 

 

Links to other climate sites

NOAA Climate Services information page

Climate Prediction Center 

Florida Climate Center info

 Southeast Climate Center - This is a page that the Southeast Climatologist Office put together to see the different parameters such as rainfall, Average Min Temperature, and Average Max Temperature the relationship of neutral, below normal, or above normal Enso conditions in the Central Pacfic Waters. The information is broken down by county by county level of each state, and it represents a relative frequency interpretation given different climate states like neutral, El Nino, La Nina, and all years combined.

 

 

Past Weather Data

Here is a link to historical surface, 500 MB, and precipitation maps: NOAA Central Library U.S. Daily Weather Maps Project