WFO Miami Research Page

Journal Articles

Cohen, A. E., and P. Santos., 2012: South Florida flash flooding events. Electronic J. Operational Meteor., 13 (11), 151-172.

Etherton, B. and P. Santos, 2008: Sensitivity of WRF Forecasts for South Florida to Initial Conditions. Weather and Forecasting, 23, 725-740.

Lazarus, M. L., C. G. Calvert, M. E. Splitt, P. Santos, D. W. Sharp, P. F. Blottman, and S. M. Spratt, 2007: Real-Time, High-Resolution, Space-Time Analysis of Sea Surface Temperatures from Multiple Platforms. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 3158-3173.

Santos, P, Carey, K., MacKenzie, W., Zhang, J., Ferraro, R., Yoe, J., 2007: Summary of Global Positioning System (GPS) Integrated Precipitable Water (IPW). NWA Electronic Journal.

Etherton, B. and P. Santos, 2006:  The effect of using AWIPS LAPS to locally initialize the WsEta. NWA Digest., 30, 49-60.

Handel, R. and P. Santos, 2005: Observations of a Wake Low Event. NWA Electronic Journal.

Pfost, P. P. Santos, and T. Warner, 2005: South Florida Sea Breeze/Outflow Boundary Tornadoes, NWA Electronic Journal.

Herbster, Christopher G., Patrick T. Welsh and Pablo Santos, 1999: A Study of Sea Breeze Convective Interactions Using Mesoscale Numerical Modeling. NWA Dig., 23:3, 33-45.

Conference Papers

Kelly, Lawrence , Stephen Konarik and Pablo Santos, 2016: Improving Flood and Flash Flood Forecast Across South Florida, , Presented at the 96th Annual American Meteorological Society Conference, New Orleans, LA.

New, Nathan and J.E. Estupiñán, 2014: Meteorological Conditions Leading to the Saharan Dust Events Observed in South Florida in July 2012,     Presented  at the 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, American Meteorological Society, Atlanta, GA.

Díaz, José, Stephen Konarik, and J.E. Estupiñán, 2014: Using Atmospheric Freezing Level to Predict Severe Hail in WFO Miami's County Warning Area, Presented  at the 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, American Meteorological Society, Atlanta, GA.

Wilson, Michelle and J.E. Estupiñán, 2014: Verification of the FSU/FPL Lightning Model and Analysis of the Meteorological Conditions Leading to the Highest Frequency of Lightning during the 2012 Convective Season, Submitted  to the 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, American Meteorological Society, Atlanta, GA.

Gibbs, Alex, Pablo Santos, André van der Westhuysen, and Roberto Padilla, 2013: Nearshore Wave Prediction System: Enhancing Marine Forecasting Capabilities During High Impact Events, Presented  at the 38th NWA Annual Meeting, Charleston, SC, October 12-17.

Fischer, Michael and J.E. Estupiñán, 2013: A Modified Fog Detection Algorithm Developed at the Miami Weather Forecast Office, Presented at the The 38th Annual National Weather Association Meeting in Charleston South Carolina.

Jenks, E and J.E. Estupiñán, 2012: Performance of Gridded Maximum and Minimum Temperature Guidance and Forecasts at the National Weather Service’s Miami Forecast Office, National Weather Association 37th Annual Meeting, Madison, Wisconsin.

Estupiñán, J.E., Dan Gregoria, Roberto Arias, and K. Voss, 2012: Characteristics of the Saharan Dust Events of July 2012 at Miami Florida: Aerosol Physical Characteristics and Vertical Distribution - Presentation, 2012 SPoRT / NWS Partners Virtual Workshop.

Estupiñán, J.E., 2012: Evaluation of the Convective Initiation (CI) GOES-R Algorithm in South Florida in July of 2012, 2012 SPoRT / NWS Partners Virtual Workshop.

Santos, P., J.C. Maloney, and Juan P. Ramos González, 2012: Validation of the NWS Miami Weather Research and Forecasting System Model Forecasts During the 2011 South Florida Convective Season. 16th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS), Amer. Meteor. Soc., New Orleans, LA.

Gibbs, Alex, P. Santos, A. J. Van der Westhuysen, R. Padilla, and B. A. Mroczka, 2012: Numerical Optimization and Sensitivity Evaluation of the National Weather Service Southern Region Simulating Waves Nearshore (SR-SWAN) Modeling System. Second Conference on Transition of Research to Operations: Successes, Plans, and Challenges, Amer. Meteor. Soc., New Orleans, LA. 

Estupiñán, J.E., Alexis Orengo, Dan Gregoria and Pablo Santos, 2011: Validation of a Convective Sounding Based Worksheet used at WFO Miami to Determine Microburst and Hail Potential during the Summer Time, National Weather Association 36th Annual Meeting, Birmingham, Alabama.

Santos, P., Juan Ramos, Joseph Maloney, and Jeral Estupinan, 2011: Summer 2011 Validation of WFO Miami WRF Runs. National Weather Association 36th Annual Meeting, Birmingham, Alabama.

Case, J. L., S. V. Kumar, P. Santos, J. M. Medlin, and G. J. Jedlovec, 2009: Examining the Impacts of High-Resolution Land and Ocean Surface Initialization on Local Model Predictions of Convection in the Southeastern U.S. PrePrints 13th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Phoenix, AZ.

Howard, K., G. Zarillo, M. Splitt, S. Lazarus, S. Chiao, P. Santos, and D. Sharp, 2009: The impact of atmospheric model resolution on a coupled wind/wave forecast system. PrePrints 16th Conference on Air-Sea Interaction, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Phoenix, AZ.

Lamberton, N., S. Lazarus, M. Splitt, S. Chiao, G. Zarillo, P. Santos, and D. Sharp, 2009: Assimilation of nearshore winds into a high-resolution atmosphere/wave modeling system. PrePrints 13th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Phoenix, AZ.

Santos, P., M. DeMaria, D. Sharp, and S. Kiser, 2009: The Determination of Optimal Thresholds of Tropical Cyclone Incremental Wind Speed Probabilities to Support Expressions of Uncertainty in Text Forecasts. PrePrints Symposium on Urban High Impact Weather, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Phoenix, AZ.

Splitt, M., J. L. Case, K. K. Fuell, P. Santos, S. M. Lazarus, and G. J. Jedlovec, 2009: Impact of Lake Okeechobee Sea Surface Temperatures on Numerical Predictions of Summertime Convective Systems over South Florida. PrePrints 13th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Pheonix, AZ.

Case, J. L., P. Santos, S. Lazarus, M. Splitt, S. L. Haines, S. R. Dembek, and W. M. Lapenta, 2008: A Multi-Season Study of the Effects of MODIS Sea-Surface Tempratures on Operational WRF Forecasts at NWS Miami, FL. PrePrints 12th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface, Amer. Meteor. Soc., New Orleans, LA.

Santos, P., A. Devanas, K. Kasper, and D. Gregoria, 2008: Tropical Cyclone Induced Tornados Associated with the Formation of Tropical Storm Barry. PrePrints Tropical Meteorology Symposium, Amer. Meteor. Soc., New Orleans, LA.

Santos, P., D. Sharp, M. Volkmer, and G. Rader, 2008: Employing Hurricane Wind Probabilities to Convery Forecast Uncertainty and Potential Impact through NWS Field Office Forecast Products. PrePrints Tropical Meteorology Symposium, Amer. Meteor. Soc., New Orleans, LA.

Case, J. L., K. M. LaCasse, S. R. Dembek, P. Santos, and W. M. Lapenta, 2007: Impact of MODIS High-Resolution Sea-Surface Temperatures on WRF Forecasts at NWS Miami, FL. Preprints NWA Annual Meeting, Reno, NV.

Strassberg, G. and P. Santos, 2007: Mesoscale Elements of the 14 December 2006 West Palm Beach Flash Flood. Preprints 22th Conference on Weather and Forecasting, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Park City, UT.

Sharp, D., M.Volkmer, P. Santos, G. Rader, and M. Sardi, 2006: Employing Hurricane Wind Probabilities to Enhance Local Forecasts and Improve Guidance for Decision-Makers. Preprints 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Amer. Meteor. Soc, Monterey, CA.

Lazarus, S., C. G. Calvert, M. E. Splitt, D. Sharp, P. Blottman, S. Spratt, and P. Santos, 2006: Multi-platform real-time sea surface temperature analysis for the initialization of short-term operational forecasts. Preprints 10th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS), Amer. Meteor. Soc., Atlanta, GA.

Etherton, B., and P. Santos, 2006: Sensitivity of WRF forecasts for South Florida to Initial and Boundary Conditions (PDF Version). Preprints 10th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS), Atlanta, GA.

Etherton, B. and P. Santos, 2005: AMS 17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction: A comparison of WRF forecasts made using different sources for initial and boundary conditions. Preprints 17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Washington, D.C.

Etherton, B., P. Santos, S. Lazarus, and C. Calvert, 2005: The effect of using AWIPS LAPS and High Resolution SSTs to locally initialize the Workstation ETA. Preprints Ninth Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS), Amer. Meteor. Soc., San Diego, CA.

Calvert, C. G., S. M. Lazarus, P. Santos, D. W. Sharp, P. Blottman, and S. Spratt, 2005: Assimilation of Multi-Satellite High Resolution Sea Surface Temperatures for a Real-Time Local Analysis and Forecasting System. Preprints Ninth Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS), Amer. Meteor. Soc., San Diego, CA.

Handel, R. and P. Santos, 2004: Observations From The 13 April 2004 Wake Low Damaging Wind Event in South Florida. Preprints 22^th  Conference on Severe Local Storms, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Hyannis, MA.

Etherton, B., and P. Santos, 2004: The Effect of Local Initialization on Workstation Eta. Preprints 16^th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Amer. Meteor. Soc.,  Seattle, WA.

Warner, T., and P. Santos, 2003: The MiamiMetropolitan Area Tornado of 27 March 2003: A Qualitative Assessment of Vorticity Enhancement in a Developing Supercell Interacting With an Advancing Outflow Boundary. NWA 28^th Annual Meeting, Jacksonville, FL.

Santos, P. and E. Smith, 2003: Seasonal Characteristics of the Gulf of Mexico-Caribbean Basin Water Budget during One Semiannual Cycle as Retrieved from Satellite. Preprints 17^th Conference on Hydrology, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Long Beach, CA.

Santos, P., G. Rader, Z. Brown, and D. P. Brown, 2002: The October 3-4 2000 Heavy Precipitation/Flash Flood Event Across South Florida (PDF Version).  Preprints 16^th Conference on Hydrology, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Orlando, FL.

Santos, P. and R. Pfost, 2002: Verification of Local Modeling at the National Weather Service Forecast  Office in Miami, FL and Ingest of Local Data into LAPS and MSAS in AWIPS (PPT Presentation). Preprints Interactive Symposium on AWIPS, Local Modeling, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Orlando, FL.

Other Local Studies

 South Florida Severe Weather Climatology. Gregoria, Dan F., Kirsten Chaney, 2013.
Tropical cyclone quantitative precipitation forecasting. Pfost, Russell, 2003.
Underreporting of heat and cold related deaths in Florida. Lushine, James B., 1999.
Tornado outbreak in the Middle and Upper Florida Keys associated with Tropical Storm Mitch. Rader, Guy E.
  and Jack Gross, 1999.
Summary of Hurricane Irene in South Florida. 1999.
South Florida 1998 Groundhog Day tornado outbreak. Brabander, Kim O., 1998.
An approach to waterspout forecasting for South Florida and the Keys. Brown, Daniel P. and Joel Rothfuss.
Climatological probabilities of precipitation for South Florida. Brown, Daniel  P., 1998.
Summary of severe weather outbreak in South Florida February 2, 1998. Lushine, James B., 1998.
Short Case Studies. Gross, Jack, 1998.
ETA model and radar observations which enabled accurate forecasts and timely warnings of downtown Miami F1 tornado.
  Brown, Daniel P., 1997.
Duration of the summer season in South Florida. Biedinger, Raymond E., 1993. Updated by James B. Lushine 5/19/1998.

Other NOAA Research Agencies
AOML/Hurricane Research Division
National Hurricane Center

Atmospheric Science Journals
American Meteorological Society - Journals or Conference Preprints
National Weather Association - Electronic Journal of Operational Meteorology