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Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
600 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

...Winter Weather Awareness Week in Arkansas...

December 1st through the 7th is Winter Weather Awareness Week 
in Arkansas. The purpose of this week is to remind people what
winter weather can bring, and how to deal with hazardous winter 
conditions. Now is the time to prepare for the upcoming winter 
season.

Today's topic is winter watches, warnings, and advisories.

A watch indicates that conditions are favorable for a winter storm 
to develop over all or part of a forecast area, but the occurrence, 
location, or timing is still uncertain. Watches are generally 
issued when there is a 50 percent or greater chance of a winter 
storm. 

In Arkansas, watches are usually issued 12 to 24 hours in 
advance of the anticipated weather. However, they can be issued as 
much as 48 hours in advance. The term Winter Storm Watch is always 
used no matter what types of wintry precipitation are expected. 

A warning indicates that winter storm conditions are occurring, 
imminent, or have a very high probability of occurring. Warnings 
are generally issued when there is an 80 percent or greater chance 
of a winter storm. 

Warnings are issued for conditions posing a threat to life or 
property. In Arkansas, warnings are usually issued for weather that 
is expected to occur within the next 12 hours. However, they can be 
issued as much as 36 hours in advance. 

Blizzards, heavy snow, and significant ice /sleet and freezing rain/
are often preceded by watches and warnings. 

A blizzard is defined as sustained winds or frequent gusts of 35 mph 
or higher, and considerable falling or blowing snow causing visibility 
to be frequently less than one quarter mile. A blizzard is an extremely 
rare in Arkansas. 

In the Little Rock County Warning Area /47 of 75 counties in Arkansas/, 
snow is considered heavy when there are three inches or more in an event
across southern, central, and eastern sections of the state, and four 
inches or more in the north and west (including the Ozark and Ouachita
Mountains). This is a slight adjustment from the previous heavy snow
criteria, and was made in 2023 as part of a nationwide effort to 
improve decision support services, collaboration between forecast 
offices, and communication to customers and partners. Non-meteorological 
discontinuities were removed to facilitate consistent hazard messaging 
and headlines.

The underlying basis of the new heavy snow criteria is a climatological
dataset used by the Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI). This is a tool 
that enhances communication regarding an event's expected severity. 
The WSSI provides winter storm impact information out to 72 hours.
 
Ice is considered significant when freezing rain accruals are at least 
one quarter inch thick. Heavy sleet covers the ground to a depth of one 
half inch or more.

An advisory is issued for similar conditions to a warning, except 
that conditions are expected to be less serious. In other words, 
snow or ice is expected, but amounts will be less than required for 
a warning. Still, conditions will cause significant inconvenience.

When an advisory is posted, look for less than four inches of snow, 
under a quarter inch of freezing rain, and sleet less than a half 
inch.

Freeze Warnings are normally issued for the first few freezes in the 
fall and for late season freezes in the spring. In far south Arkansas 
where freezes are more uncommon, Freeze Warnings may be issued at any 
time during the winter. 

Frost Advisories are issued for the first few frosts in the fall and 
for late season frosts in the spring. 

There are two new headlines in 2024. Wind Chill Advisories and Wind
Chill Warnings are gone. This winter, the National Weather Service
in Little Rock will issue a Cold Weather Advisory when temperatures 
and/or wind chill index values reach at least 0 degrees for several 
hours over a fairly large area. An Extreme Cold Warning will be posted
when temperatures and/or wind chill index values drop to at least 
-15 degrees for at least an hour.   

Freezing fog Advisories are issued when fog is present with temperatures 
below freezing, and the fog is expected to cause a thin layer of ice to 
develop on bridges, overpasses, and other elevated roadways.

There is a short fuse warning /30 to 60 minute valid time/ that was 
introduced recently. A Snow Squall Warning will be issued when a brief 
period of intense snowfall /moderate to heavy in intensity/ is expected, 
accompanied by gusty winds resulting in reduced visibility /a quarter
mile or less/. Ideally, road temperatures would be sub-freezing. It is 
thought this type of warning will seldom be disseminated.

&&

For more information about Watches, Warnings, and Advisories: 

https://www.weather.gov/lzk/lzkwwa.htm

For the latest Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI): 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/wssi/wssi.php?id=LZK

$$

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