Winter Weather Update

372
FLUS43 KJKL 300212
HWOJKL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1012 PM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025

KYZ079-080-083>088-107-109-110-112>120-301100-
Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-Johnson-
Magoffin-Floyd-Breathitt-Knott-Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-
Martin-Pike-
1012 PM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 193 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible at times into tonight. Some of the
thunderstorms may be severe, especially during the evening hours.
Damaging winds are the primary threat. However, isolated large hail
can`t be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms are possible at times from Wednesday into Saturday.
Some of the thunderstorms Thursday could be strong, with gusty winds
being the primary threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to report any occurrences of damaging wind or
hail tonight.

$$

KYZ068-069-108-111-301100-
Rockcastle-Jackson-Wolfe-Lee-
1012 PM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms are possible at times from Wednesday into Saturday.
Some of the thunderstorms Thursday could be strong, with gusty winds
being the primary threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

$$

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-104-106-301100-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Elliott-Morgan-
1012 PM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms are possible at times from Wednesday into Saturday.
Some of the thunderstorms Thursday could be strong, with gusty winds
being the primary threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated..

$$

CMC/HAL

433
FXUS63 KJKL 300130
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
930 PM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures will persist through Friday, followed
by below normal temperatures over the weekend.

- The potential for showers and thunderstorms arrives this
afternoon and continues at times through early Saturday.

- Some storms late this afternoon and evening may be strong to
severe, with strong to damaging winds and heavy rain the primary
threats. Hail or a brief spinup tornado cannot be ruled out.

- Some of the thunderstorms on Thursday could be strong, with
gusty winds and heavy rainfall the primary threats.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 929 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2025

A band of thunderstorms is dropping slowly south southeast
through the middle of the forecast area. Some cells are
occasionally pulsing for a severe threat (mainly wind). Have
updated the POP for latest radar trends and model runs, with the
current activity dropping further south and weakening late this
evening, but redeveloping over our southern counties overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 300 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2025

CAMS are in excellent agreement on the current MCS traversing out
of Missouri into southern Illinois and far western Kentucky
combining with new downstream convection over central and northern
Kentucky to move across the forecast area this evening. By that
time, a moderately unstable environment may exist across western
and northwestern parts of the forecast area, with CAPE values of
2000 to 3000 J/kg possible. Additionally, 25 to 35 kts of
effective wind shear will support the potential for strong to
severe storms, with the highest risk along and north of Interstate
64, with decreasing risk toward the Virginia border. Strong to
damaging winds will be the primary severe risk, with large hail a
secondary threat. Heavy rainfall will also be possible, but with
no impact on area streams or rivers expected. An isolated tornado
also cannot be completely ruled out, but is not expected.

Thunderstorm activity gradually diminishes after midnight as the
cold front gradually moves into northeastern and east-central
Kentucky from the north, with widespread low ceilings and light
rain/showers expected by Wednesday morning across the north, with
potential residual showers across the southern counties. The front
stalls across the central part of the forecast area by Wednesday
afternoon before lifting north as a warm front late Wednesday
into Wednesday ahead of an approaching upper trough that will pass
Thursday.

With the front over the forecast area Wednesday, another round of
showers and thunderstorms is expected, with low to moderate
instability again expected by late morning into the afternoon. A
passing shortwave late in the morning into the afternoon may
provide just enough shear for a stronger storm or two to develop
north of a Somerset-to-Salyersville line within an overall
environment of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.
Damaging winds would again be the primary threat.

A brief reprieve from shower and thunderstorm activity is possible
late Wednesday into the first half of Thursday as ridging builds
ahead of the approaching upper disturbance that will cross the
area Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2025

An energetic upper trough lifts northeast out of Texas through the
Ohio River Valley Thursday into Thursday evening, with an
amplified upper trough and second cold front following about 24
hours later Friday night into early Saturday. This will bring
continued unsettled weather to the region with several rounds of
showers and thunderstorms Thursday through Friday night. The
Thursday threat will be accompanied by a cold front and will bring
with it at least some threat for strong to severe storms, with
damaging winds again the primary threat, but it is looking
possible that an isolated strong storm or two will be possible
even on Friday if sufficient moisture advection can occur behind
the Thursday cold front passage.

A much cooler and drier regime builds across the area for the
weekend behind the departing cold front Saturday morning, with
temperatures below normal for the weekend. After bottoming out
Saturday and Saturday night, temperatures gradually rise back
toward normal into early next week. However, there may be some
frost potential in some of the deeper sheltered valleys in the
northeastern part of the forecast area Saturday night and perhaps
again Sunday night, though this is very low confidence at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 929 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2025

A band of thunderstorms is dropping south southeast through the
JKL forecast area this evening, affecting much of the area except
near the TN and VA borders at the start of the period at 00Z. The
activity will continue shifting south southeastward this evening,
with models suggesting it diminishes to some extent but then
redevelops overnight over southeast KY and the Cumberland drainage
basin, before eventually mostly dying out on Wednesday morning.
The thunderstorms will bring localized IFR or worse conditions.
Outside of heavier precipitation, mainly VFR conditions are
expected until the overnight hours. Between about 05Z and 10Z,
largely MVFR ceilings are forecast to overtake most of the area
and last into Wednesday morning before largely dissipating by
around mid day. Another increase in showers/thunderstorms may
occur on Wednesday afternoon, but there is less confidence as to
how this evolves.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...HAL