672
FXUS63 KJKL 270559
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
159 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near to slightly below normal temperatures are in store for the
weekend, before above normal readings make a comeback for much
of the coming work week.

- There is a possibility of frost developing in the sheltered valleys
of eastern Kentucky late Sunday night.

- The next significant potential for showers and thunderstorms
arrives Tuesday and continues at times through Friday. Some
storms Tuesday through Thursday could be strong to severe.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 159 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2025

Leftover low clouds continue to erode southeast leaving behind
some high clouds. Forecast fog extent was increased in valleys
through sunrise Sunday while overnight temperatures were fine-
tuned. Expect low temperatures of 40-45F in most locations,
though some sheltered valleys northeast of US-421 could dip into
the upper 30s.

UPDATE Issued at 930 PM EDT SAT APR 26 2025

Have tried to fine tune the sky cover forecast as the back edge of
a low overcast drops south through eastern Kentucky this evening.
Have also made adjustments for cooler valley low temperatures in
many places on Monday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 311 PM EDT SAT APR 26 2025

Cold front will exit southeastern Kentucky this evening with low
clouds gradually scattering out and becoming more limited with time
to the windward side of the mountains toward the Virginia border.
Surface high pressure and dry air advection may allow for lows late
tonight to reach the upper 30s in the typical cold spots in the
northeastern parts of the forecast area, with 40s elsewhere.

Northwesterly flow aloft continues through Sunday between an upper
ridge over the MS Valley and a deep upper trough exiting off the
Northeast U.S. coastline. Surface high pressure will remain centered
over the Lower Great Lakes. High temperatures will be slightly below
normal in the mid-60s north to lower-70s south, with just passing
high clouds.

Approaching upper ridging, light winds, and mostly clear to partly
cloudy skies will set the stage for another chilly night under good
radiational cooling conditions, especially in northeastern counties,
where frost will be possible. With dew points in the lower to mid
30s forecast, minimum temperatures may fall as low as the mid-30s.
Meanwhile, ridgetops may be as warm as the upper 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 311 PM EDT SAT APR 26 2025

Warm advection begins in earnest Monday ahead of a strengthening
system over the northern and central U.S., with temperatures
returning to above normal readings for highs and lows until the
passage of a cold front late in the week around Friday.

Dry conditions are expected Monday with the upper ridge axis still
west of the area despite low-level southwesterly flow increasing
near the surface. However, by Monday night into Tuesday Gulf
moisture will start to infiltrate eastern Kentucky bringing a more
humid air mass, and with that will come increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms through the daytime hours Tuesday, and
then continuing shower and thunderstorm chances through Friday.
Along with the increased moisture will come an increase in
instability and wind shear as the jet stream strengthens over the
area, so we will need to monitor for the potential for severe
weather at times by late Tuesday afternoon and lingering into
Tuesday night, and possibly again Thursday and Thursday night
with the approach of an energetic upper trough and associated
cold front.

Temperatures cool back toward seasonal normals to end the week
behind the passage of the cold front Friday and upper trough
bringing northwesterly flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2025

MVFR ceilings continue to erode southeast to along the VA/KY
border. All TAF terminals have improved to VFR and are expected to
remain so through the forecast period. However, non-TAF lower-
elevation terminals such as K1A6 and KCPF could see flight
category reductions to IFR or worse from valley fog early this
morning. Any fog will dissipate after sunrise, leaving VFR
conditions area-wide through the remainder of the TAF period.
Winds will be light at around 10 kts or less through Sunday night.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...GEERTSON