831
FLUS43 KJKL 290742
HWOJKL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
342 AM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-300745-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
342 AM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible at times from this afternoon into
tonight. Some of the thunderstorms may be strong to severe,
especially during the late afternoon and evening hours. Strong to
damaging winds and heavy rainfall are the primary threats. However,
hail or a brief spin up tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms are possible at times from Wednesday to early on
Saturday. Some of the thunderstorms on Thursday could be strong,
with gusty winds and heavy rainfall the primary threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encourage to report any instances of strong winds, hail,
and heavy rain.

$$

JP

031
FXUS63 KJKL 290618 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
218 AM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures will persist through the work week,
followed by below normal temperatures next weekend.

- The next significant potential for showers and thunderstorms
arrives Tuesday afternoon and continues at times through
Friday. Some storms, especially on Tuesday and Thursday, could
be on the strong side.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 200 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2025

With the gradient increasing between a departing ridge of sfc
high pressure centered off the mid Atlantic coast and a low
pressure system tracking into the Great Lakes and a trailing cold
front into IA to eastern KS to the TX and OK panhandles vicinity
to the Four Corners region, winds aloft have increased. This has
led to some gustiness or mixiness, especially for more open
terrain locations and some coalfield ridges as well as some
locations downwind of Cumberland Mountain and perhaps downwind of
Pine and Black Mountains as well near the VA border. The
temperature at K1A6 has bounced around accordingly recently
reported at 71 following a reading of 64 an hour and a half ago.
Overall with mixiness expected to linger for the duration of the
overnight, this leads to uncertainty in hourly temperatures as
well as min T for the more open terrain locations as well as
coalfield ridges and some areas immediately downwind of the VA
border. Meanwhile, the more sheltered/ protected valley locations
should continue experiencing temperatures falling to the low to
mid 50s.

Overall, hourly grids were freshened up based on recent
observations and trends.

UPDATE Issued at 1053 PM EDT MON APR 28 2025

Late evening temperatures have been blended into the forecast
without any substantive changes.

UPDATE Issued at 934 PM EDT MON APR 28 2025

Temperatures in eastern valleys have dropped off quickly this
evening, and adjustments have been made for the more rapid fall.
This includes also nudging morning minimums down slightly. Low
level flow will be increasing during the night which will hinder
western valleys from decoupling. As is usual in this scenario, the
most questionable forecast is in between these two areas, and to
what extent those valleys mix or decouple.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 300 PM EDT MON APR 28 2025

Warm advection and sunny to mostly sunny skies has resulted in
temperatures returning to above normal levels, as upper ridging
resides to our immediate west over the TN and Lower Ohio River
valleys.

The mid-level ridge axis moves across eastern Kentucky overnight
and exits east through the day Tuesday. Good radiational cooling
at least through the first part of the night will result in
temperatures in the deeper valleys falling into the mid-50s, but
ridgetops and exposed locations will remain warmer in the lower
60s.

Southwest flow will advect increasing humidity and
instability into the area through the day Tuesday, with a mid-
level disturbance arriving in the afternoon and likely firing off
scattered showers and thunderstorms. This will be followed by
additional clusters of showers and thunderstorms through the
evening into the overnight. There will be sufficient shear for
some storms to be on the stronger side in the late afternoon and
evening, especially north of the KY Highway 80 corridor in
southeast Kentucky. Thunderstorm activity should gradually wind
down Tuesday night as a transitory shortwave ridge moves over the
area and mid-level winds diminish.

Temperatures will remain quite warm for late April, as the
associated cold front will stall over the Ohio River Valley,
keeping eastern Kentucky within the warm sector.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT MON APR 28 2025

Showers and thunderstorms continue at times Wednesday through
Friday, with a relative lull late Wednesday into early Thursday as
an upper trough lifts out of TX toward the Ohio River Valley, with
downstream ridging resulting in increasing heights during that
time. Mid-level winds appear to be too weak to support any
appreciable severe weather threat Wednesday through Wednesday
night. Shear and instability increase through the day Thursday,
which will likely support at least a marginal threat for a few
stronger storms, as several rounds of showers and thunderstorms
are expected Thursday afternoon through Thursday night, with a
cold frontal passage the first half of Friday bringing a cooler
air mass to eastern Kentucky to end the week. However, even behind
the cold front Friday showers and possibly a few storms will
linger into the evening as an amplified upper trough passes across
eastern Kentucky.

A cooler and drier air mass moves over the area for the weekend,
with high temperatures falling below normal in the 60s Saturday
and returning closer to normal in the 70s Sunday. Saturday and
Sunday night lows will also be on the cool side, especially in
sheltered valleys where mid to upper 30s may be possible Saturday
night, followed by lows around 40 degrees Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2025

VFR was reported at issuance time and VFR should generally
prevail in all locations through at least 18Z. With winds just off
the surface having increased just off the surface with an
increasing gradient between departing high pressure and a cold
front well to the west, LLWS will be concern through around 12Z to
13Z. This will mainly affect locations along or north of a line
from KLOZ to KJKL to KSJS. Otherwise, with daytime heating on
Tuesday, wind gusts from the south to southwest should pick up
into the 15 to 20K range between about 11Z and 15Z, before winds
slacken toward 00Z. As the front approaches from the west,
chances for showers and thunderstorms increase generally after
18Z, initially at KSYM among the TAF SITES. Chances will increase
further southeast at KSME, KLOZ, KJKL, and KSJS through about 00Z
and remain in place through the end of the period. Any thunderstorms
would bring temporary and localized IFR or worse conditions along
with the potential for wind gusts to 30KT or higher.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...JP