Freezing Temperatures Tonight and Saturday Night

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
636 AM EST Mon Feb 3 2025

KYZ044-050>052-059-060-068-069-079-080-083-086>088-104-106>120-
041200-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-Jackson-
Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-Knox-Bell-Harlan-Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-
Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-
Martin-Pike-
636 AM EST Mon Feb 3 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Thunderstorms are possible at times from Wednesday night into
Thursday evening, and from Saturday into Saturday evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected.

$$

KYZ058-084-085-041200-
Estill-McCreary-Whitley-
636 AM EST Mon Feb 3 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

High water will persist along portions of the mainstem of the
Kentucky River and portions of the Cumberland River today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Thunderstorms are possible from Wednesday night into Thursday
evening, and from Saturday into Saturday evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected.

$$

AR/HAL

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
730 AM EST Mon Feb 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Normal to well above normal temperatures will prevail for the
next week.

- Showers and possibly thunderstorms are expected around midweek
and again as we move into the weekend.

- Water levels on rivers will continue to recede early in the
week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 730 AM EST MON FEB 3 2025

The one issue with the forecast the past few hours have been
temperatures. Temperatures around the area have been all over the
place, with a couple of locations 10 to 15 degrees warmer than the
forecast values. Used the recent obs to freshen up the T/Td/Wind
grids and have recalculated this mornings minimum temperatures
using the latest obs trends. The dayshift will need to closely
monitor temperatures over the next few hours as cloud cover begins
to slowly scatter out to see if today`s highs need to be
increased.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 335 AM EST MON FEB 3 2025

The current surface synoptic pattern across the CONUS is as follows:
An occluded low pressure system is centered over southeastern
Canada, and will be moving east just north of the northern CONUS
border over the next day and a half. A series of frontal
boundaries associated with the Canadian system extend southward
into the Great Lakes and parts of western New England. Another
area of low pressure is centered over central Iowa, and has a
quasi-stationary boundary extending east and west from it from
eastern Wyoming, across the central Plains and eastward again
across the Ohio Valley and into the mid-Atlantic region. An inland
flux of moisture continues to flow into the central west coast
from the tropical Pacific. Another area of low pressure is also
sitting over northern Nevada and, coupled with the strong,
persistent, and moisture onshore flow, and another area low
pressure positioned over the Pacific Northwest and southwest
Canada, will continue to bring widespread rainfall and snow to
parts of California, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming over the
next couple of days and beyond. Further south, high pressure will
be dominant across the country from the northern periphery of the
four corners region and across the central and southern Plains,
mid and southern Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, along with the
southeastern CONUS and the Gulf Coast states out westward out to
the desert southwest. The flow pattern aloft features an extremely
active northern stream, with a series of troughs moving steadily
across the northern CONUS and southern Canada to begin the new
work week.

A weak front boundary sitting to our north will act as a focal point
for cloud formation early today, as moist southerly flow interact
with it and a weak wave of low pressure moves to the east along it.
These clouds should begin quickly thinning out late this morning,
with mostly clear skies expected across our area through early this
evening. After that, the front is expected to push southward and
across the region tonight into Tuesday morning. The boundary should
have just enough moisture to work with, and just enough lift, to
spark isolated rain showers around eastern Kentucky tonight into
Tuesday. Once the boundary clears the area early Tuesday afternoon,
the rain should come to an end and the clouds should thin out a bit,
leaving us with partly cloudy skies by late Tuesday afternoon. The
previous forecast mentioned only sprinkles across our area for
tonight and early Tuesday, but with several high resolution models
all showing isolated rain showers moving through during that time
period, decided to go ahead and include genuine rain showers in the
forecast for tonight into Tuesday.

Winds are expected to increase again today, as winds associated with
a strengthening low level jet mix down to the surface during peak
heating this afternoon. South to southwest winds of 8 to 15 mph,
with gusts of 20 to 25 mph at times, will be possible. Temperatures
are expected to soar to much above normal values today in the robust
southerly flow pattern. Highs in the upper 60s will be common, with
a few locations perhaps reaching 70. With thinning clouds during the
day allowing for good daytime heating, and persistent southerly flow,
it seemed reasonable to go a few degrees warmer than the latest MOS
numbers for todays highs. After a mild night tonight across our
area, temperatures on Tuesday should be much cooler than today`s as
much cooler air spills into the region after the cold front moves
off our south, and winds shift to the northwest and north. Highs on
Tuesday are expected to max out in the lower 50s along and north of
I-64, and in the upper 50s to lower 60s everywhere else. No weather
hazards expected in the short term at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 427 AM EST MON FEB 3 2025

The period will start with a frontal boundary stalled over the
Deep South. We will reside on the southern edge of a very cold air
mass extending south from Canada on the north side of the front,
giving us a larger than normal north/south temperature gradient.
Aloft, a broad and very low amplitude ridge will be moving east
from the high plains. Embedded within it will be a shortwave
trough which will support a surface wave that travels along the
front and pulls it northward. The warm air advection regime will
bring a return of rain and showers to the area from Wednesday into
Thursday. As the warm front moves through, we can also look for a
short-lived return to much above normal temperatures Wednesday
night and Thursday. Once the low or frontal wave passes by, the
boundary will move back southeast through our area as a cold front
on Thursday and Thursday evening and precipitation will taper off.
The front will again stall to our south and put us back into a
set-up similar to that of the start of the long term period.

Another low pressure system is expected to develop and travel east
along the front, pulling it back north through our area roughly
around Friday night. Once the wave passes by, the front comes back
southeast as a cold front moving through roughly around Saturday
night. Like the midweek system, this is likely to again bring a
period of wet weather with a potential for thunderstorms. The POP
wanes on Sunday as colder air again arrives.

There is still some uncertainty concerning the details of how
these systems play out. The NBM run available at forecast time
still appears to be playing catch-up with model trends, and the
most recent NAM, GFS, and ECMWF were blended with the NBM.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 635 AM EST MON FEB 3 2025

VFR conditions at all airports to begin the period. High clouds
will stream over the region this morning and will be BKN for a few
hours. These clouds should begin to scatter out around 15Z, and
will give way to clear skies by late this morning. Low level wind
shear will be an issue until around 15Z as well, but we should see
the winds aloft mixing down to the surface this afternoon during
peak heating. Winds will be out of the south or southwest today
and will increase to 10 to 15 mph by this afternoon, with gusts of
20 to 25 mph possible at times. We will see clouds on the increase
again this evening, as a frontal boundary moves in from the north.
BKN to OVC clouds and isolated rain showers will accompany the
front on its way through the region. Winds may also increase
again and become gusty as the front and showers move through.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...AR