Severe Thunderstorms in the Northeast and Northern Plains; Critical Fire Weather in the West

Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and hail are forecast across the Northeast U.S. and North Dakota today. Heavy to excessive rainfall is possible over eastern New Mexico into western Texas and over the western Florida peninsula today. Critical fire weather conditions will persist today over parts of the interior Northwest and Great Basin. Read More >

Latest Event Reviews

Event Summary of Tropical Cyclone Helene (26-27 September 2024)

Event Review of the 9 January 2024 Claremont, NC Tornado (embedded pdf's)

Latest Journal Articles

Northwest Flow Aspects of Hurricane Sandy

Journal Articles

Research papers by current and past members of the NWS GSP staff

Northwest Flow Aspects of Hurricane Sandy. Steve Keighton, Douglas K. Miller, David Hotz, Patrick D. Moore, L. Baker Perry, Laurence G. Lee, and Daniel T. Martin, Wea. Forecasting 2016, 31:1, 173-195, December 2015.

A Climatological Analysis of Heatbursts in Oklahoma (1994-2009). Renee A. McPherson, Justin D. Lane, Kenneth C. Crawford, and William G. McPherson, Int. J. Climatol., V. 31 No. 4, 531-544, March 2011.

Synoptic Classification of Snowfall Events in the Great Smoky Mountains, USA. L. Baker Perry, Charles E. Konrad, David Hotz, and Laurence G. Lee, Physical Geography, Bellweather Publishing, Ltd., V. 31 No. 2, March-April 2010.

A Collaborative Approach to Study Northwest Flow Snow in the Southern Appalachians. Steve Keighton, Laurence Lee, Blair Holloway, David Hotz, Steven Zubrick, Jeffrey Hovis, Gary Votaw, L. Baker Perry, Gary Lackmann, Sandra E. Yuter, Charles Konrad, Douglas Miller, and Brian Etherton, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 90, 979-991.

Geologic, geomorphic, and meteorological aspects of debris flows triggered by Hurricanes Frances and Ivan during September 2004 in the Southern Appalachian Mountains of Macon County, North Carolina (southeastern USA). - R. M. Wooten, K. A. Gillon, A. C. Witt, R. S. Latham, T. J. Douglas, J. B. Bauer, S. J. Fuemmeler, and Laurence G. Lee - Landslides. Springer - Verlag, Vol. 5, February 2008.

Rainfall characteristics associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Helene in upstate South Carolina -Carlton W. Ulbrich and Laurence G. Lee -Weather and Forecasting. American Meteorological Society, Vol. 17, December 2002.

Model representation of freezing and melting precipitation: Implications for winter weather forecasting -Gary M. Lackmann, Kermit Keeter, Laurence G. Lee, and Michael B. Ek -Weather and Forecasting. American Meteorological Society, Vol. 17, October 2002.

Rainfall measurement error by WSR-88D radars due to variations in Z-R law parameters and the radar constant -Carlton W. Ulbrich and Laurence G. Lee -Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology American Meteorological Society, Vol. 16, August 1999.

NWS Eastern Region Technical Attachments -

A Severe Weather Climatology for the Greenville-Spartanburg, South Carolina, County Warning Area - Justin Lane.

A Comprehensive Climatology of Significant Tornadoes in the Greenville-Spartanburg, South Carolina County Warning Area (1880 - 2006) - Justin Lane - 2008

The Hybrid High Wind Event of March 7, 2004 in the Piedmont of the Western Carolinas - Harry Gerapetritis - 2007

On the Behavior of the Critical Success Index - Harry Gerapetritis and Joseph M. Pelissier - 2004

Intelligent Use of a Lapse Rate Smart Tool in the Graphical Forecast Editor - Harry Gerapetritis and Laurence G. Lee - 2003

A Record Southeastern Snowfall in the Absence of a Rapidly Deepening Extratropical Cyclone -- Benjamin W. Moyer - 2001

A Climatological Analysis of Winter Precipitation Events at Greenville-Spartanburg, SC -- Benjamin W. Moyer - 2001

A Radar-based Climatology of July Convective Initiation in Georgia and Surrounding Area -- Douglas E. Outlaw and Michael P. Murphy - 2000

A study of three-quarter inch hail reports in Upstate South Carolina - 1988 to 1994 -Eastern Region General Interest Paper - Wayne Jones -1999

Isentropic Analysis Applications in Forecasting Low-Level Clouds -Eastern Region General Interest Paper - Kenneth James -1997

Conference Papers and Presentations

An Examination of Preliminary Local Storm Reports during the Historic South Carolina Rainfall Event September 30, 2015 - October 6, 2015. Neil Dixon - 41st Natl. Wea. Assoc. Annual Meeting, Norfolk, VA

Social Media Analysis of the October 2015 South Carolina Floods. Sandy LaCorte, Neil Dixon, Trisha D. Palmer, S. Hunter Coleman, Emily Timte - 41st Natl. Wea. Assoc. Annual Meeting, Norfolk, VA

National Weather Service Impact-Based Decision Support Services Provided During the October 2015 South Carolina Floods. Sandy LaCorte, Neil Dixon, Trisha D. Palmer, S. Hunter Coleman, Emily Timte - 41st Natl. Wea. Assoc. Annual Meeting, Norfolk, VA

Social Media Dashboard -- A Locally Developed Application. Neil Dixon - 2014. 39th Natl. Wea. Assoc. Annual Meeting, Salt Lake City, UT. Abstract

Overview of the 28 January 2014 Southeast Winter Storm. Trisha D. Palmer, S. Hunter Coleman, Patrick D. Moore, Adam K. Baker, Jason T. Deese, Jessica L. Fieux, Alexander R. Gibbs, Steven E. Nelson, and Keith M. Stellman - 2014. 39th Natl. Wea. Assoc. Annual Meeting, Salt Lake City, UT.

Overview of the 11-13 February 2014 Winter Storm across the Southeast. Trisha D. Palmer, S. Hunter Coleman, Patrick D. Moore, Adam K. Baker, Jason T. Deese, Jessica L. Fieux, Alexander R. Gibbs, Steven E. Nelson, and Keith M. Stellman - 2014. 39th Natl. Wea. Assoc. Annual Meeting, Salt Lake City, UT.
An Investigation of a Convective Snow Event Over Upstate South Carolina on 16 February 2013. - Patrick D. Moore - 2014. 71st Eastern Snow Conference, Boone, NC.

Coupling atmospheric and hydrological modeling toward flash flood forecast improvement: An HMT-Southeast case study from the 2013 Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall Forecast Experiment. Kelly M. Mahoney, and F. E. Barthold, D. J. Gochis, J. J. Gourley, T. E. Workoff, L. Bernardet, James Oh, R. Cifelli, and E. Sukovich - 2014. 94th Amer. Met. Soc. Annual Meeting, Atlanta, GA.

Northwest flow snow aspects of Sandy. Part IV: Radar and satellite observations. Patrick D. Moore, Laurence G. Lee, Steven M. Zubrick, and L. Baker Perry - 2013. Extended Abstract, 38th Natl. Wea. Assoc. Annual Meeting, Charleston, SC.

Landslides and Weather: An Interdisciplinary Approach to Anticipating the Hazard and Communicating the Threat. Jennifer Bauer, Richard Wooten, and Patrick D. Moore - 2011. , 54th AEG Annual Meeting, Anchorage, AK.

Overview of the 2009-2010 Snow Season in the Southern Appalachian Mountains. - L. Baker Perry, David Hotz, Stephen Keighton, Laurence G. Lee, J. Dobson, D. Hall, and Charles E. Konrad - 2010. 67th Eastern Snow Conference, Hancock, MA.

The Role of the Great Lakes in the 10-11 February 2005 Northwest Flow Snowfall Event in the Southern Applachian Mountains. - Blair Holloway and Gary Lackmann - 2008. 33rd Natl. Wea. Assoc. Annual Meeting, Louisville, KY.

Snowfall Accumulation forecasting challenges for the southern Applachians. - Douglas K. Miller, L. Baker Perry, Sandra E. Yuter, Laurence G. Lee and Stephen Keighton - 2008. 33rd Natl. Wea. Assoc. Annual Meeting, Louisville, KY.

A Sounding Derived Climatology of Significant Tornado Events in the Greenville-Spartanburg, South Carolina, County Warning Area (1948 - 2006) - Justin D. Lane - 2008. Preprints, 24th Conference on Severe Local Storms, Savannah, GA, American Meteorological Society.

A Climatology of Heatbursts As Detected by the Oklahoma Mesonet. - Renee A. McPherson, Kenneth C. Crawford, Justin D. Lane and William J. McPherson, Jr. - 2008. Preprints, 17th Conference on Applied Climatology, Whistler, BC, American Meteorological Society.

Atmospheric Influences on New Snowfall Density in the Southern Appalachian Mountains, USA. - L. Baker Perry, Douglas K. Miller, Sandra E. Yuter, Laurence G. Lee, and Stephen Keighton - 2008. 65th Eastern Snow Conference, Fairlee, VT.

Synoptic Classification of Snowfall Events in the Great Smoky Mountains, USA. - L. Baker Perry, Charles E. Konrad, David Hotz, and Laurence G. Lee - 2007. 64th Eastern Snow Conference, St. Johns, NL.

Observations of a non-supercell tornadic thunderstorm from a Terminal Doppler Weather Radar - Justin D. Lane and Patrick D. Moore - 2006, Preprints, 23rd Conference on Severe Local Storms, St. Louis, MO, American Meteorological Society.

Environmental aspects of two tornado outbreaks associated with landfalling tropical cyclones - Justin D. Lane - 2005, 4th Southeast Severe Storms Symposium, Starkville, MS, Mississippi State University.

The role of a surface boundary and multiple-cell mergers in the development of the 21 April 2003 tornado in upstate South Carolina - Bryan P. McAvoy - 2004, Preprints, 22nd Conference on Severe Local Storms, Hyannis, MA, American Meteorological Society.

A climatological analysis of heatbursts in Oklahoma - Justin D. Lane - 2002, Preprints, 21st Conference on Severe Local Storms, San Antonio, TX, American Meteorological Society, 87-90.

Investigation of an unusual storm structure associated with weak to occasionally strong tornadoes over the Eastern United States - Bryan P. McAvoy, Wayne A. Jones, and Patrick D. Moore - 2000, Preprints, 20th Conference on Severe Local Storms, Orlando, FL, American Meteorological Society, 182-185.

Short-term forecasting of tornadic environments in the complex terrain of western North Carolina - Harry Gerapetritis - Preprints, 20th Conference on Severe Local Storms, Orlando, FL, American Meteorological Society, 567-570.

Characteristics of WSR-88D velocity and reflectivity patterns associated with a cold season non-supercell tornado in upstate South Carolina - Laurence G. Lee and Wayne A. Jones - 1998, Preprints, 19th Conference on Severe Local Storms, Minneapolis, MN, American Meteorological Society, 151-154.

An analysis of the 4 September 1996 Hickory Nut Gorge flash flood in western North Carolina - Thomas P. Johnstone and Stephen A. Burrus - 1998, Preprints, 16th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Phoenix, AZ, American Meteorological Society, 275-277.

Comparison of reflectivity factors determined from disdrometer and WSR-88D measurements in upstate South Carolina - Carlton W. Ulbrich, Joseph M. Pelissier, and Laurence G. Lee - 1997, Preprints, 28th Conference on Radar Meteorology, Austin, TX, American Meteorological Society, 382-383.

Effects of variations in Z-R law parameters and the radar constant on rainfall rates measured by WSR-88D radars - Carlton W. Ulbrich, Joseph M. Pelissier, and Laurence G. Lee - 1996, Preprints, 15th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Norfolk, VA, American Meteorological Society 316-319.