PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1100 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016
...SECOND SPRING HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS THE SECOND OF TWO PLANNED HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOKS PROVIDING SPRING SNOWMELT AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION
AS WELL AS CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION FOR THIS COMING SPRING. THIS
OUTLOOK CONTAINS INFORMATION WHICH WAS COLLECTED FROM A NUMBER OF
SOURCES...INCLUDING THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY /USGS/...
US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS /USACE/...MIDWEST REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER
/MRCC/...HIGH PLAINS REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER /HPRCC/...US DROUGHT
MONITOR /NIDIS/...AND THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL REMOTE SENSING CENTER
/NOHRSC/.
THE OUTLOOK THAT FOLLOWS BELOW IS A SUMMARY OF THE PAST AND PRESENT
BASIN CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST
IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
*** FLOOD POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTS ***
OVERALL...WITH A CONTINUED DRY AND WARM PATTERN...THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING THIS SPRING IS SHIFTING LOWER. THE OVERALL CHANCE FOR ANY
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOW LOOKING TO BE BELOW NORMAL.
THERE CONTINUE TO BE A FEW PARAMETERS SUGGESTING AN ELEVATED FLOOD
RISK...BUT SEVERAL OTHERS THAT POINT TO A LOWER RISK. CONSIDERING
ALL FACTORS TOGETHER...IT IS NOW LOOKING LIKE THE OVERALL RISK IS
BELOW NORMAL. ANY POTENTIAL WILL BE TIED TO EXCESS RAINFALL FROM
SPRING THUNDERSTORMS.
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH SOME SNOW
ANTICIPATED TO END THE WEEK OVER THE UPPER PORTION OF THE WISCONSIN
RIVER BASIN. BUT THE PATTERN SHIFTS WARM AGAIN NEXT WEEK...LIKELY
MELTING AWAY THE SNOW COVER AGAIN. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME RENEWED
RIVER RISES AGAIN...BUT THE RISK FOR FLOODING FROM THIS IS LOW.
IN TABLE 1 BELOW, THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS GREATER THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING
THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN
HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL.
...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 03/06/2016 - 06/04/2016
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
: FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
LAKE CITY 16.0 18.0 20.0 : 11 25 <5 9 <5 <5
WABASHA 12.0 14.0 16.0 : 28 56 8 19 <5 9
ALMA 16.0 17.0 18.0 : <5 8 <5 6 <5 <5
DAM 5 660.0 662.0 665.0 : 11 27 <5 12 <5 6
DAM 5A 656.0 659.0 661.0 : 11 27 <5 9 <5 5
WINONA 13.0 15.0 18.0 : 19 44 10 20 <5 9
TREMPEALEAU 647.0 649.0 651.0 : 12 35 <5 13 <5 7
LA CRESCENT 641.0 643.0 645.0 : 11 32 <5 12 <5 7
LA CROSSE 12.0 13.0 15.5 : 17 45 10 23 <5 8
GENOA 631.0 634.0 636.0 : 20 48 <5 11 <5 7
LANSING 17.0 19.0 20.0 : <5 9 <5 8 <5 <5
LYNXVILLE 625.0 628.0 631.0 : 10 23 <5 9 <5 <5
MCGREGOR 16.0 19.0 22.0 : 22 52 10 25 <5 9
GUTTENBERG 15.0 18.0 21.0 : 14 43 <5 13 <5 <5
:ZUMBRO RIVER
ZUMBRO FLS 18.0 24.0 26.0 : 7 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SOUTH FORK ZUMBRO RIVER
ROCHESTER 14.0 18.0 20.0 : 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:ROOT RIVER
HOUSTON 15.0 17.0 18.0 : <5 12 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SOUTH BRANCH ROOT RIVER
LANESBORO 12.0 16.0 18.0 : <5 16 <5 <5 <5 <5
:CEDAR RIVER
LANSING 18.0 20.0 22.0 : <5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5
AUSTIN 15.0 18.0 20.0 : <5 13 <5 8 <5 6
OSAGE 22.0 24.0 27.0 : 8 19 <5 9 <5 <5
CHARLES CTY 12.0 15.0 18.0 : 12 24 <5 12 <5 9
:TURTLE CREEK
AUSTIN 10.5 12.0 14.0 : 8 15 <5 6 <5 <5
:TURKEY RIVER
ELKADER 12.0 16.0 20.0 : 31 49 12 19 <5 <5
GARBER 17.0 20.0 23.0 : 23 38 13 21 8 11
:UPPER IOWA RIVER
DECORAH 12.0 13.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
DORCHESTER 14.0 17.0 19.0 : 17 35 7 9 <5 <5
:TREMPEALEAU RIVER
ARCADIA 8.0 9.0 10.0 : 7 16 <5 <5 <5 <5
DODGE 9.0 11.0 12.0 : 24 52 <5 6 <5 <5
:BLACK RIVER
NEILLSVILLE 18.0 20.0 22.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
BLK RVR FLS 47.0 51.0 55.0 : 25 60 8 22 <5 <5
GALESVILLE 12.0 13.0 15.0 : 30 62 17 41 <5 <5
:KICKAPOO RIVER
LA FARGE 12.0 13.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
VIOLA 14.0 16.0 18.0 : 28 33 <5 <5 <5 <5
READSTOWN 11.0 14.0 17.0 : 33 38 <5 <5 <5 <5
SLDRS GROVE 13.0 16.0 19.0 : 20 24 <5 <5 <5 <5
GAYS MILLS 13.0 15.0 17.0 : 49 48 5 8 <5 <5
STEUBEN 12.0 13.0 15.0 : 15 21 <5 8 <5 <5
:WISCONSIN RIVER
MUSCODA 9.0 10.0 11.0 : <5 6 <5 5 <5 <5
:YELLOW RIVER
NECEDAH 15.0 16.5 18.0 : 34 73 14 40 <5 14
*** CLIMATE INFORMATION ***
FROM NOVEMBER 1 THROUGH DECEMBER 28 2015...5 TO 7 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION FELL ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS WAS 2 TO 3 INCHES WETTER THAN NORMAL.
EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 9 INCHES FELL ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA...
AND SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS WAS 3 TO 7 INCHES WETTER
THAN NORMAL. WITH ONE OF THE WARMEST NOVEMBERS AND DECEMBERS ON
RECORD...MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION SATURATED THE SOIL AND THE REST
OF IT WAS CARRIED DOWNSTREAM...WHERE IT CAUSED RECORD FLOODING ALONG
THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
FROM DECEMBER 29 2015 THROUGH THE END OF FEBRUARY...1.5 TO 3 INCHES
OF PRECIPITATION FELL ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THIS PRECIPITATION WAS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH
TEMPERATURES 6 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SINCE MID-FEBRUARY...MUCH
OF THE SNOW MELTED SOUTH OF WISCONSIN 29. THIS WATER HAS ALREADY
ENTERED EITHER SOILS OR IS BEING TRANSPORTED AWAY FROM THE AREA IN
THE RIVER AND STREAMS.
FROM FEBRUARY 29TH THROUGH MARCH 1ST...1 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW FELL
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THE WATER EQUIVALENT WITH THIS
SNOW IS UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH. AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK ABOVE
NORMAL THIS WEEKEND...THIS NEW SNOW WILL MELT OFF QUICKLY.
AS WE HEAD INTO SPRING OF 2016...EL NINO CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE MAINLY NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND THERE
ARE EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. TYPICALLY
DURING AN EL NINO EVENT...MARCH TENDS TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
WITH ITS PRECIPITATION...AND THEY TEND TO BE DRIER-THAN-NORMAL IN
APRIL AND MAY.
*** FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION ***
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL ANALYSIS IS BASED ON CURRENT SOIL AND SNOW
CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH A BROAD SPECTRUM OF POTENTIAL SPRING
WEATHER CONDITIONS REFLECTED IN THE CLIMATE RECORD FROM 1949 TO
2015. THE ANALYSIS BELOW IS VERY GENERAL. A MORE QUANTIFIED RISK OF
FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO CLIMATOLOGY IS AVAILABLE THROUGH WEB
GRAPHICS AND TABLES AT
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/LONG_RANGE.PHP?PERCENT=50
THE FALL AND WINTER PERIOD BEGAN RATHER WET...WITH WARM AND RAINY
CONDITIONS THROUGH NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER. SOILS WERE VERY MOIST
GOING INTO THE FREEZE UP...AND RIVERS WERE RUNNING HIGH. THEN THE
COLD WEATHER FINALLY SETTLED IN FOR JANUARY AND EARLY FEBRUARY. THIS
CAUSED THE MOISTURE TO FREEZE IN THE SOILS...AND RIVERS CONTINUED TO
RUN HIGH ALL WINTER LONG. STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS AS REPORTED BY THE
USGS WERE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE REGION...RUNNING IN THE
HIGHEST 10 TO 20 PERCENT OF ALL HISTORICAL RECORDS. BUT TIMELY SNOW
PUT A BLANKET ON THE GROUND...INSULATING THE FROST FROM GOING TOO
DEEP.
THE PAST TWO OR THREE WEEKS WERE RATHER WARM...MELTING OFF MOST OF
THE SNOW COVER...AND ALLOWING THE BULK OF THE ICE TO RUN OUT FROM
THE RIVER SYSTEMS. BUT SNOW FELL EARLIER THIS WEEK DROPPING A FEW
INCHES BACK ONTO THE LANDSCAPE. WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE REMAINING
SNOW IS LESS THAN A HALF INCH. FROST DEPTHS RANGE FROM ABOUT 5 TO
18 INCHES.
WHEN LOOKING AT ALL OF THE FACTORS...THE OVERALL CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD FLOODING DUE TO SNOWMELT THIS SPRING LOOK BELOW NORMAL.
ANY POTENTIAL WILL BE TIED TO EXCESS RAINFALL FROM SPRING
THUNDERSTORMS.
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 03/06/2016 - 06/04/2016
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
LAKE CITY 9.2 10.2 11.7 12.6 14.2 16.3 16.7
WABASHA 8.9 9.4 10.5 11.4 12.3 13.8 14.1
ALMA 6.7 7.4 8.6 9.5 11.0 13.1 13.6
DAM 5 653.2 653.9 655.2 656.3 658.0 660.6 661.3
DAM 5A 648.5 649.5 650.7 651.8 653.6 656.5 657.1
WINONA 7.2 8.0 9.3 10.3 12.1 15.0 15.7
TREMPEALEAU 641.8 642.5 643.6 644.4 645.8 648.0 648.6
LA CRESCENT 634.9 635.6 636.9 638.0 639.4 641.6 642.3
LA CROSSE 6.8 7.4 8.8 9.9 11.2 13.2 13.8
GENOA 625.5 626.3 627.9 629.2 630.5 632.5 633.3
LANSING 8.7 9.0 9.9 10.9 12.0 14.7 15.7
LYNXVILLE 617.6 618.3 619.6 620.8 622.3 624.9 626.0
MCGREGOR 10.6 11.2 12.8 13.8 15.8 18.8 20.1
GUTTENBERG 9.7 10.2 11.7 12.8 14.1 16.7 17.8
:ZUMBRO RIVER
ZUMBRO FLS 8.3 8.6 9.6 11.2 12.9 14.6 19.3
:SOUTH FORK ZUMBRO RIVER
ROCHESTER 4.3 4.6 5.2 6.4 7.6 8.8 14.5
:ROOT RIVER
HOUSTON 4.9 5.1 5.8 7.5 8.7 10.7 13.7
:SOUTH BRANCH ROOT RIVER
LANESBORO 3.2 3.4 3.8 4.5 5.5 7.8 9.1
:CEDAR RIVER
LANSING 12.3 12.8 13.6 14.2 15.4 16.1 16.6
AUSTIN 5.9 6.4 7.4 8.7 10.6 11.8 12.5
OSAGE 16.6 16.9 17.8 18.8 20.0 21.2 22.5
CHARLES CTY 5.2 5.4 6.9 8.2 9.9 13.3 14.2
:TURTLE CREEK
AUSTIN 3.1 3.3 5.0 6.0 7.3 9.3 10.9
:TURKEY RIVER
ELKADER 7.7 8.3 8.8 10.4 12.4 16.8 18.3
GARBER 9.2 9.8 11.1 13.3 16.3 21.3 28.2
:UPPER IOWA RIVER
DECORAH 3.8 3.9 4.5 5.0 5.9 8.2 9.4
DORCHESTER 9.2 9.5 10.4 11.4 12.5 16.2 18.3
:TREMPEALEAU RIVER
ARCADIA 4.2 4.4 5.4 6.0 6.4 7.5 8.5
DODGE 6.1 6.5 7.6 8.4 9.0 9.9 10.7
:BLACK RIVER
NEILLSVILLE 7.6 8.0 8.7 9.8 11.5 13.4 14.1
BLK RVR FLS 41.3 42.0 43.1 44.8 47.0 50.8 51.9
GALESVILLE 8.0 9.0 9.9 11.1 12.3 13.4 13.6
:KICKAPOO RIVER
LA FARGE 4.6 5.4 6.5 7.2 9.3 10.6 11.0
VIOLA 10.5 11.2 12.2 12.8 14.1 15.0 15.2
READSTOWN 6.8 7.4 8.7 10.4 11.3 12.4 13.2
SLDRS GROVE 9.4 9.7 10.8 12.2 12.9 13.9 14.7
GAYS MILLS 10.0 10.4 11.5 12.8 13.6 14.4 15.1
STEUBEN 9.3 9.6 10.4 10.9 11.6 12.5 12.9
:WISCONSIN RIVER
MUSCODA 3.2 3.4 3.8 5.8 6.6 7.6 8.8
:YELLOW RIVER
NECEDAH 11.8 12.5 13.9 14.6 15.6 16.7 16.9
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE
OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC
FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.
ALL OF THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT
ON THE INTERNET AT: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE
THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED MARCH 3RD.
$$
WELVAERT/BOYNE
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