Flooding Continues in Arenac County Along the Rifle River

                        

116

ACUS01 KWNS 220550

SWODY1

SPC AC 220548



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1148 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025



Valid 221200Z - 231200Z



...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered thunderstorms remain possible from the middle and upper

Texas Coast toward the Sabine Valley late today and overnight. A few

storms could produce at least small hail.



...Synopsis and Discussion...

High pressure will remain situated over much of the central and

eastern states, beneath moderate westerly flow aloft. Within the

southern stream, a shortwave trough will move into the southern

Plains late, with cooling aloft spreading into TX and toward the

Sabine Valley into Sunday morning.



While the surface air mass will remain cool and stable, elevated

instability will develop ahead of this feature, aided by southerly

850 mb winds over 30 kt. Precipitation including thunderstorms

should develop over eastern TX during the afternoon and evening, and

spread eastward across LA overnight.



MUCAPE in excess of 500 J/kg will develop over eastern TX from

evening into the overnight, with increasing deep-layer shear through

the cloud-bearing layer. Model forecast soundings vary with degree

of instability, lapse rate and shear combinations, but cool

sub-cloud layers will favor minimal melting of any hail that does

develop. At this time it appears most hail will be below severe

limits, with sporadic strong cores within the larger precipitation

shield.



..Jewell/Halbert.. 02/22/2025



$$






                

                        

070

ACUS02 KWNS 220654

SWODY2

SPC AC 220653



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1253 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025



Valid 231200Z - 241200Z



...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Thunderstorms are forecast across portions of southern Louisiana and

immediate surrounding areas on Sunday. No severe weather is

expected.



...Discussion...

Elevated thunderstorms will be ongoing across the Gulf at the

beginning of the period with some lightning activity possible across

much of southern Louisiana and perhaps parts of Southeast Texas. The

greater instability, and thus the best chance for marginal severe

hail, will remain well offshore in the central Gulf. By Sunday

evening, the surface low and associated surface front will move far

enough southeast into the central Gulf to bring an end to

thunderstorm activity by mid to late evening. These thunderstorms

may approach the Florida coast by late in the period, but are

expected to arrive after 12Z.



..Bentley.. 02/22/2025



$$






                

                        

014

NWUS53 KAPX 201534

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1034 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2025



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



1033 AM     Snow             4 ENE Arcadia           44.54N 86.15W

02/20/2025  M3.2 Inch        Benzie             MI   CO-OP Observer



            24 hour total. snow depth 24 inches.





&&



$$



JZ








                

                        

197

FXUS63 KAPX 220923

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

423 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Slight chance for light snow today with accumulations

  remaining well under an inch



- Mixed Precip Sunday night/Monday



- Gusty winds, warm temps, and grunge potential Monday



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 1053 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025



Rather quiet night across our Northwoods as high pressure

remains in control. Weak moisture-starved wave is approaching

northern portions of our CWA...resulting only in some additional

mid/high clouds. This will remain the case as we head into the

overnight hours. There is an outside chance of a few light snow

showers toward daybreak...otherwise...expect mainly cloudy skies

and cold temps...with overnight lows in the teens.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 422 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2025



Forecast Pattern...  Broad scale and psuedo-zonal upper troughing

forms over eastern CAN and US today. A surface low moving across the

Hudson Bay will have a trailing cold front move over northern MI

this morning. Down in MI, the feature will be moisture starved and

forcing will likely be washed out (surface winds will remain

southwesterly behind the boundary, indicating most of the boundary

is aloft - winds do turn NW at 850mb). As a result of this weak

forcing and little moisture, clouds and intermittent light

snow/flurries will be seen today. Temperatures will reach into the

high 20s and low 30s but should remain below freezing. Breezy to low

end gusty winds will linger through early Sunday morning, keeping

overnight lows tonight in the high teens and low 20s.



Forecast Details... High confidence in the forecast today. Lake

enhancement could allow a few spots to maybe see up to an inch of

snow, but that is unlikely due to the differing wind directions in

the low levels and lack of overall forcing to begin with. Cloud

cover could be thin enough this afternoon to let enough sunshine in

to warm temperatures up to near or slightly above freezing for areas

south of M-72.



&&



.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Issued at 422 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2025



PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:



1038mb broad surface high centered over the OH Valley. Subtle PV

maxima and attendant upper troughing over the central Plains getting

squashed as ridging builds into the NW US ahead of another Pacific

disturbance. Weak shortwave trekking through the Upper Great Lakes

attm with little moisture and little in the way of surface

reflection. Cooler air mass slowly beginning to sink into central

Canada...where 850mb temps drop well into the minus-teens C with

some polar air. Thermal gradient over central Canada

strengthening...with surface reflection stretching from Alberta down

into Manitoba/Dakotas.



Warm advection in play this weekend...ahead of surface low dropping

out of central Canada. Expecting this feature to slip by primarily

to our northeast...but not without bringing the potential for some

mixed precipitation (maybe even straight-up rain?) to our realm for

a change. BCZ in the wake of this system hangs out over us early

next week...as another niblet of energy digs into the Upper MS

Valley to our west for Monday night into Tuesday. Largely active

pattern continues for midweek and beyond as the upstream pattern

buckles...resulting in longwave troughing trying to settle into the

Upper Midwest again for later next week...with snow and colder

weather trying to return.



Primary Forecast Concerns:



Mixed Precip Sunday night/Monday...Think there could be some

grunge/drizzle/flurries around on Sunday, particularly toward the

EUP...but better chances for actual precip/widespread precip will be

late Sunday night into early Monday morning, as best forcing and

moisture move overhead. Dry slot moves through behind this, which

could aid in potential for convective instability and somewhat more

potent QPF in spots, noting pwats running up above a half-inch.

Guidance currently hints at potential for at least a couple inches

of wet/concrete-mixer type snow for the EUP going into the Monday

morning commute, which bears some watching, depending on how far

north the warmer air is able to get Sunday night/Monday morning.

Otherwise...thermal profiles attm hint at some potential for a

lower/mid-level dry slot that could lead to things flipping between

flakes and freezing drizzle at times. Attm no strong signals for

more persistent freezing rain or sleet, as the warm nose may not

necessarily be strong...but will need to keep an eye on it in case

surface temps end up remaining cooler than expected with the same

amount of warm nose. Certainly possible that parts of northern

Lower, esp toward central Lower, could transition to all rain Monday

morning as the warmer punch of air slips in (less certainty for the

Yoop but not impossible it could end up warm enough for all rain up

here as well). Think we will change back over to a wintry mix Monday

evening as some additional moisture aloft slips in Monday night

along the boundary...and temps fluctuate around freezing.



Gusty winds, warm temps, and grunge potential Monday...Dry slot

could also boost winds higher than perhaps forecast (850, 700mb

winds around 30-40+ kts could mix down if the dry slot is vigorous

enough). More aggressive drying than currently forecast could

certainly lead to temps warming well into the 40s across northern

Lower in particular. However...do worry that increased

moisture/winds over our snowpack will result in fog/low stratus

grunge from melting snow...along with cooler daytime highs...and for

now, have held off on being too aggressive with warmth on Monday.

Have left the fog idea out of the forecast for now, but think

advective fog could very well become a concern going forward. The

increased potential for snowmelt, combined with some additional

snow/rainfall, could certainly heighten concerns for hydro issues

(especially in poor drainage areas and/or where drains are currently

blocked by snow). Think ice jams may be possible on some of the area

rivers at times as well...as temperatures try to fluctuate above

freezing.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 1145 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025



Weak moisture-starved upper level wave will slide thru Northern

Michigan tonight...resulting only in some mid and upper level

clouds. Stronger but still moisture-starved trough axis will

swing thru Northern Michigan on Saturday...resulting in only a

slight chance of some light snow. Prevailing conditions will

remain mostly VFR...with some MVFR cigs across Eastern Upper

Michigan tonight. Surface winds will remain from the SW at 10

to 20 kts.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...None.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LHZ346.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LMZ345-

     346.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ323-

     344.



&&



$$



UPDATE...MLR

SHORT TERM...ELD

LONG TERM...AJS

AVIATION...MLR






                

                        

617

ACUS11 KWNS 191809

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 191808

VAZ000-NCZ000-192315-



Mesoscale Discussion 0118

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1208 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025



Areas affected...Portions of northern/northeast North Carolina into

southeast Virginia



Concerning...Heavy snow



Valid 191808Z - 192315Z



SUMMARY...Snowfall rates around 1 in. per hour are possible within a

snow band in parts of northeast North Carolina and southeast

Virginia. Immediate coastal areas could see slightly higher rates.



DISCUSSION...As mid-level ascent continues to increase across the

Mid-Atlantic this afternoon, a coastal trough is expected to deepen

offshore. By the evening, a deeper surface low should be present off

the coast from the Carolinas. This process should promote

low/mid-level frontogenesis across parts of the region. This already

appears to be occurring in northern/northeast North Carolina into

southeast Virginia. Wakefield, VA ASOS has reported heavy snow

within the last 30-45 minutes. This band should continue to

translate northeastward through the afternoon into the evening.

Moderate to heavy snowfall is probable within this band with overall

rates near 1 in. per hour anticipated. Some areas near the immediate

coast may see slightly higher rates or at least longer duration snow

as the frontogenetic lift should be maximized in these areas.

Snowfall intensity will eventually decrease by late evening into

Thursday morning. With southern extent, towards central North

Carolina, more of a mix of wintry precipitation is possible along

the edge of the snow band as there will be greater influence from

the low/mid-level warm nose.



..Wendt.. 02/19/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...



LAT...LON   35927883 35887899 35857930 35957960 36087975 36247965

            36497933 37137790 37447667 37427611 37347581 37037561

            36597552 36257570 36077666 36027741 35957839 35927883