835

ACUS01 KWNS 281927

SWODY1

SPC AC 281926



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0226 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025



Valid 282000Z - 291200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL LOUISIANA...



...SUMMARY...

A severe storms threat will continue across coastal Texas into

Louisiana this afternoon, with primary risks including a tornado or

two and damaging wind. Isolated severe hail and wind is also

possible this evening/tonight from Nebraska into portions of the

Upper Midwest.



...20z Update...

A Slight Risk was added across portions of far southeastern Texas

into western/central Louisiana with this update. Through the

morning/afternoon, supercell development has been ongoing with

rotation observed on radar. The environment across this region is

characterized by strong low-level shear, which is evident in

enlarged low level hodographs on VAD profiles from LCH and POE.

Daytime heating has led to MLCAPE around 500 J/kg across the region

with dew points in the mid to upper 60s (some 70s along the coast).

Additional thunderstorm development is expected through the

afternoon as upper level forcing increases with a vort max currently

upstream across southern Texas, with potential for more supercells

and a tornado or two.



Elsewhere, the Marginal Risk across Nebraska into the Upper Midwest

remains unchanged. See previous discussion below for more

information.



..Thornton/Smith.. 03/28/2025



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025/



...Coastal Texas into Louisiana...

Satellite imagery late this morning shows a mid-level trough over

south-central TX into northeastern Mexico, and a vorticity max over

the middle coastal plain of TX.  Largely displaced from incipient

outflow-generated air from a couple of western Gulf thunderstorm

clusters, southeasterly low-level flow is advecting richer moisture

into southeast TX/western LA.



Cloud breaks will lead to some heating from the middle to upper

coasts of TX into western LA.  Surface dewpoints ranging from the

upper 60s near the coast to the mid 60s as far north as I-20, will

contribute to 250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE per model forecast soundings.

Sufficiently enlarged low-level hodographs (0-1 km SRH 100-200

m2/s2) and a moist boundary layer and appreciable 0-3km CAPE, will

support a conditional setup for several mini supercells.  The main

threats with this highly dependent mesoscale scenario would be a

risk for a couple of tornadoes and localized damaging gusts.

Uncertainty is rather high regarding this forecast due to low

confidence in a few warm sector cells developing this afternoon.

However, if isolated to scattered storms were to develop, the

greatest potential severe threat would occur primarily in the 18-00

UTC period.  This potential activity would likely diminish by early

to mid evening owing to the loss of daytime heating.



...Nebraska into the Upper Midwest...

Upper ridging will be gradually suppressed today as a low-amplitude

shortwave trough moves eastward across the northern/central Plains

and Upper Midwest through the period.  Modest low-level moisture is

forecast to continue streaming northward along/south of a sharpening

warm front across MN/WI, and east of a cold front that will develop

southward across parts of the northern/central Plains by this

evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop by mid to

late evening along/near both fronts as low-level warm advection

strengthens, from central NE northeastward into southern MN and

central WI. Steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in the development

of moderate MUCAPE, while deep-layer shear appears marginally

supportive of organized convection. Any sustained thunderstorms

could produce isolated severe hail and damaging winds. This activity

will likely be elevated with eastward extent into the Upper Midwest

through the evening and overnight, with a continued hail threat.



$$






                

                        

722

ACUS02 KWNS 281729

SWODY2

SPC AC 281727



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1227 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025



Valid 291200Z - 301200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF

NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from northern Oklahoma

into the Lower Missouri Valley on Saturday evening/night. Large to

very large hail should be the primary hazard, but a couple of severe

gusts and possibly a tornado or two may occur.



...Synopsis...

The upper-level pattern across the Rockies and Plains will be

somewhat disorganized. However, two low-amplitude shortwave troughs

are expected to eject into the Plains during the period. At the

surface, an initial surface cyclone in western Kansas will evolve

into two distinct lows as the two shortwave troughs eject in

succession. One low will move through the lower

Missouri/mid-Mississippi Valleys while the other will shift through

western/central Oklahoma before weakening by Sunday morning.



...Eastern Kansas/western/central Missouri/northern Oklahoma...

Dewpoints should increase ahead of the dryline/cold front during the

day. Most model guidance suggests upper 50s to low 60s F will be

possible. Confidence in storm development is highest in these areas.

Forcing for ascent from the secondary shortwave trough, surface

low/dryline, and the cold front should promote widely scattered to

scattered storms initially from north-central Oklahoma into

northeast Kansas. Effective shear will be strong enough for

supercells. Near the triple point into southeast Kansas, supercell

structures have potential to last longer into the evening given the

more orthogonal shear vector orientation to the dryline. From the

Flint Hills into northeast Kansas, supercells would likely persist

for a short period. Very-large hail is possible with any supercell,

but will become less likely with time as storms will tend to congeal

along the cold front in eastern Kansas. Given that the boundary

layer will be rather well-mixed and the low-level jet will increase

during the evening, some upscale growth into one or more clusters

seems probable. Large to very-large hail will be the primary threat.

Isolated severe/damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two are also

possible. The primary area of greater tornado risk, conditional on

supercell storm mode, will likely be from northeast Oklahoma into

southeast Kansas where low-level hodographs will be more favorably

curved/enlarged. There is some question how far east strong/severe

storms will persist into Missouri. The current Slight risk has been

maintained as is, but model trends will continue to be monitored.



...Central/western Oklahoma into Central Texas...

In Oklahoma, capping from an elevated mixed layer should suppress

convection along the dryline through the afternoon. With 850-700 mb

winds generally veered in the vicinity of the dryline, it becomes

rather uncertain if convection will be able to initiate given

parcels short residence time in the narrow zone of ascent.

Furthermore, mid-level ascent will not arrive until after sunset.

Models continue to show a very weak signal for any development as a

result. Should a storm or two manage to develop, the environment

will be conditionally favorable for supercells capable of

large/very-large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a tornado.



Farther south into Texas, a similarly capped environment will exist.

Stronger heating may lead to a few convection initiation attempts

along the dryline (a scenario hinted at by the ECMWF/GFS as well as

some CAMS). Additional potential will exist in far southern

Oklahoma/North Texas near a triple point feature along with a

strengthening low-level jet core. Isolated large to very-large hail

and severe gusts would be the primary threats with this activity,

should it develop.



...Lower Missouri into mid-Mississippi Valley...

The lead shortwave will promote a surface low to deepen in the

Kansas City vicinity and track roughly north-northeastward through

the evening. A few, likely elevated, storms could produce large hail

given the steep lapse rates aloft. An isolated strong/damaging gust

is also possible but should be spatially limited and conditional on

a more organized cluster developing. The northern and eastern extent

of the threat are the most uncertain for these region.



..Wendt.. 03/28/2025



$$






                

                        

532

NWUS53 KAPX 241400

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1000 AM EDT Mon Mar 24 2025



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



1000 AM     Snow             Indian River            45.42N 84.62W

03/24/2025  M6.0 Inch        Cheboygan          MI   Public









&&



$$



msb








                

                        

499

FXUS63 KAPX 281854

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

254 PM EDT Fri Mar 28 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Significant ice accumulations developing across eastern upper

  and parts of northern lower Michgian tonight.



- Potential for another round of significant ice develops on

  Saturday.



- Another round of accumulating freezing rain/icing returns

  Saturday evening/night. Freezing rain focuses mostly on

  elevated terrain of northern lower along with the Straits.



- Variable weather conditions swing across northern lower this Sunday

  as warm air builds with shower/storm chances, followed by a

  cold front returning mixed precip and snow Sunday night into

  Monday.



- Quiet and cool conditions build through the first half of

  next week. Additional precipitation chances return to the

  Great Lakes region around the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Issued at 251 PM EDT Fri Mar 28 2025



Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:



All eyes directed at multi-layer frontal features and attendant

intense thermal gradient found across the Great Lakes early this

afternoon. Actual focused surface front/warm front slowly bowing

north from southern Minnesota to southwest Michigan, with this front

delineating much cooler air to the north and springtime warmth to

its south. Two areas of organized precipitation, one along and north

of that aformentioned warm front (driven by intense and moisture

rich isentropic upglide)...with another zone of mixed wintry

precipitation arching from northwest to southeast across southern

Ontario into Lake Superior (with this area been driven by deep

frontogenetical response along right entrance region of 120+ knot

upper level jet). Primary concern tonight will focus on the latter

as it slowly drifts south, encountering a sustained cool and dry low

level flow rotating around high pressure sliding across southern

Canada...with an off the deck warm nose supplied by elevated warm

air advection only adding to the complexity. Impressive surge of

deep layer isentropic upglide takes center stage tomorrow as low

pressure begins to lift out of the southern plains. No doubt about

it, above yields one complicated and relatively low confidence

forecast tonight and Saturday.



Primary Forecast Concerns:



Primary concerns remains centered on freezing rain/sleet

evolution, amounts, and attendant impacts/headline management.



Details:



About as tricky of a forecast as they get, with both an elevated

warm nose and with a marginally cold low level thermal profile to

contend with. Best educated guess to follow:  Expect precipitation

to continue to expand and build south into upper Michigan into the

Straits region this evening as elevated fgen response and deep

moisture convergence does the same. Cool east flow will only

intensify with time, keeping temperatures near or a touch below

freezing tonight for areas north of the big bridge. Latest trends

suggesting warm nose across eastern upper may not be quite as robust

as initially thought, perhaps supporting a mix of freezing rain and

sleet...with more sleet the further north one goes. Still, looking

at upwards of a quarter of an inch or more of freezing rain for at

least parts of eastern upper Michigan by sunrise Saturday...

definitely enough to cause some significant impacts...including

minor tree damage and power outages. Cold air bleeds south with time

tonight, bringing freezing rain concerns into the Tip of the Mitt

counties. A bit later start and a more marginal low level thermal

profile (likely some modification from Lake Huron) should limit

overall ice accumulations, but again still looking at a tenth to

quarter of an inch by sunrise Saturday. Biggest question is just how

far south the freezing line descends...with some evidence for at

least some icing impacts along and north of M-32 stretching from

eastern Otsego to Western Alpena counties. Tentatively believe this

area will only see minor ice accumulations/impacts...not worthy of

any headline tonight. To top all this off, will likely see some

embedded deeper convection within the larger rain shield...

supporting some isolated to scattered thunderstorms. While nothing

severe is expected, cool profiles could result in some smaller size

hail with any more organized updrafts.



Thermal gradient and attendant precipitation slowly sags south and

likely decreases in organization Saturday morning, with likely some

regeneration later in the day as isentropic upglide again increases.

That southward sagging thermal gradient supports near to sub-

freezing temperatures expanding across a good portion of interior

north central and northeast lower Michigan. Freezing rain appears

likely, more so on elevated surfaces as solar insolation increases

through the day. Would again expect some increased impacts,

especially as we head toward evening (with more ice expected

Saturday night). Winter storm watches have been issued to account

for this significant ice potential.



&&



.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Issued at 251 PM EDT Fri Mar 28 2025



Pattern Synopsis:



Current stationary boundary set up across Michigan`s Upper Peninsula

will remain over the northwoods until the beginning of the long term

period. At the same, surface level low pressure will begin to

develop and make its way to the midwest this weekend. With

temperatures once again near freezing at the surface and warmer

air aloft, another round of freezing rain Saturday night into

Sunday morning. Warm air advection associated on the warm side

of the system will eventually return showers to the entire CWA

this Sunday. Conditions quickly overhaul however as cold air on

the backside of the low will switch precipitation from rain to a

wintry mix/snow before departing to the east coast.



Quiet weather thankfully returns this Tuesday as longwave troughing

over Canada pushes cool and dry continental air into the region. The

midlevel pattern upstream remains pretty active however as another

wave of energy develops over the rockies and ejects itself into the

Great Lakes. "Beautiful" spring surface and low level temperatures

hovering around freezing will continue chances of multiple precip

types around the Wednesday/Thursday times frame. At this time, more

rain favors areas south of the bridge while sleet/snow stays along

eastern upper, but that is likely to change as future guidance

determines the track of low pressure.





Primary Forecast Concerns:



Describing this system as messy would be an understatement due to

the rapidly changing and variable weather types across the CWA this

weekend. Biggest impacts for the entirety of the forecast period are

at the beginning as thermal profiles indicate freezing rain and

continue overnight into Sunday morning. Forecast remains extremely

tricky as temperatures across the CWA are at or below freezing.

Areas likely to see accumulating ice will be east of I-75 and north

of M-72 where overnight lows drop into the upper 20s while the low

level jet keeps H8 warm enough to melt any falling precip.

Accumulations at this time for these areas are likely to be around a

quarter inch by Sunday morning, but favorable areas such as elevated

terrain may see even more. Obviously roadways are a concern with ice

build up, but 20-30 mph gusts combined with the added weight of

liquid on branches/powerlines could lead to power outages across the

region. As for areas outside of favorable icing... Some small

accumulations of a glazing of ice to a tenth or so remains possible,

but luckily surface temps remain warm enough to limit build up for

the more populated areas near Traverse Bay.



Warm air advection quickly surges temperatures into the 40s and 50s

this Sunday, eventually (breifly) transitioning all areas to

rainfall. Instability aloft will lead to some convective driven

showers and thunderstorms as the warm sector builds across the

region. A couple stronger storms near the southernmost parts of the

CWA could perhaps produce severe hail, but overall this period

should provide a brief lull before cold air build on the backside of

the surface low and returns a final round on rain transitioning to

snow. Snowfall amounts will be pretty minor on Monday, with only a

tenth or so expected for parts of northern lower and eastern upper,

but rapidly freezing temperatures could once again result in icy

roadways and poor driving conditions for the Monday commute.



Cold polar air from the north will unfortunately keep temperatures

cooler than normal with highs in the 30s and 40s next week. Another

chance of precipitation returns later next week as a shortwave

trough deepens and tracks across the Great Lakes around the

Wednesday/Thursday timeframe.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 150 PM EDT Fri Mar 28 2025



Widespread MVFR to IFR conditions expected to spread across the

taf locations later this afternoon through Saturday morning,

with low cigs and a mixture of rain and freezing rain. Some

significant freezing rain is expected at both KCIU and KPLN,

with some minor ice impacts likely at KAPN. The one exception

will be at KMBL which looks to remain largely VFR tonight as

lower cigs pass to the north. Gusty east to northeast winds will

continue.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT

     Saturday for MIZ016>018-098.

     Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday

     morning for MIZ022>024-028>030.

     Ice Storm Warning until 11 AM EDT Saturday for MIZ086>088-

     095>097.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for LHZ345>349.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for LMZ323-341-

     342-344>346.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for LSZ321-322.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...MSB

LONG TERM...SJC

AVIATION...MSB






                

                        

773

ACUS11 KWNS 282027

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 282027

LAZ000-TXZ000-ARZ000-282200-



Mesoscale Discussion 0276

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0327 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025



Areas affected...Parts of east TX/western LA



Concerning...Tornado Watch 66...



Valid 282027Z - 282200Z



The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 66 continues.



SUMMARY...Some threat for a tornado or two and locally damaging

gusts may persist through the remainder of the afternoon.



DISCUSSION...One small but long-lived supercell has shown signs of

weakening to the southeast of Shreveport, with other transient

supercells noted from east TX into far western LA over the last 1-2

hours. While most of these cells have apparently remained sub-severe

thus far, the KSHV/KPOE/KLCH VWPs continue to depict rather strong

southerly low-level flow and modestly favorable 0-1 km shear/SRH for

at least a low probability tornado/wind threat. However, generally

weak midlevel lapse rates and only relatively modest deep-layer

shear could continue to limit storm organization to some extent. A

tornado or two and/or localized damaging gusts remain possible with

the ongoing storm cluster near the Sabine River through the

remainder of the afternoon, and some threat could extend just north

of WW 66.



Farther southwest, some increase in low-level flow has been noted on

the KHGX VWP, and deep convection continues to increase immediately

in advance of a midlevel vorticity maximum approaching east-central

TX. A modest increase in storm organization across this area could

result in a threat for locally damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado

in and near the southwestern portion of WW 66 through the remainder

of the afternoon.



..Dean.. 03/28/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...



LAT...LON   29959320 29679352 29429455 28799549 29409535 29619534

            29869552 30419509 31179471 31919466 32489445 33049429

            32949334 32479323 32049313 31539302 30999292 30509303

            29959320



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH