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Modernizing Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimation

Since the late 1940s, the NOAA’s National Weather Service has provided PMP guidance and at the request of various federal agencies and with funding provided by those agencies. This funding has diminished and gradually ceased, and as a result the NWS could not continue the PMP activities.

With the 2022 Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL), NOAA received the first-ever direct Federal funding to update PMP estimates for the entirety of the United States. To assure that the best science is applied to this important task, NOAA is first sponsoring a study by the National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine called “Modernizing Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimation.” Please see the project website for more information and a way to sign up for project updates.

NWS Legacy Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) Documents

NOAA’s National Weather Service continues to provide copies of PMP studies on this site. pmp_figure

pmp_figure

Regions covered by different NWS PMP documents (as of 2015).

Viewing the documents requires the Adobe Acrobat Reader (click here to download).
Viewing the shapefiles for HMR 58 and HMR 59 requires a Geographic Information System (GIS).

Document link	Title	Date	Size (MB)
Hydrometeorological Report No. 39	Probable Maximum Precipitation in the Hawaiian Islands	1963	3.4
Hydrometeorological Report No. 41	Probable Maximum and TVA Precipitation over the Tennessee River Basin above Chattanooga	1965	5.7
Hydrometeorological Report No. 46	Probable Maximum Precipitation, Mekong River Basin	1970	16.2
Hydrometeorological Report No. 47	Meteorological Criteria for Extreme Floods for Four Basins in the Tennessee and Cumberland River Watersheds	1973	1.8
Hydrometeorological Report No. 48	Probable Maximum Precipitation and Snowmelt Criteria For Red River of the North Above Pembina, and Souris River Above Minot, North Dakota	1973	1.6
Hydrometeorological Report No. 49	Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimates, Colorado River and Great Basin Drainages	1977	6.2
Hydrometeorological Report No. 51	Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimates, United States East of the 105th Meridian Digitized maps	1978	3.5
Hydrometeorological Report No. 52	Application of Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimates - United States East of the 105th Meridian	1982	7.8
Hydrometeorological Report No. 53	Seasonal Variation of 10-Square-Mile Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimates, United States East of the 105th Meridian	1980	3.3
Hydrometeorological Report No. 54	Probable Maximum Precipitation and Snowmelt Criteria for Southeast Alaska	1983	4.6
Hydrometeorological Report No. 55A	Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimates - United States Between the Continental Divide and the 103rd Meridian	1988	103.5
Hydrometeorological Report No. 56	Probable Maximum and TVA Precipitation Estimates With Areal Distribution for Tennessee River Drainages Less Than 3,000 Mi² in Area	1986	8.5
Hydrometeorological Report No. 57	Probable Maximum Precipitation - Pacific Northwest States. Columbia River (including portions of Canada), Snake River and Pacific Coastal Drainages	1994	28.3
Hydrometeorological Report No. 58	Probable Maximum Precipitation for California - Calculation Procedures	1998	10.9
Hydrometeorological Report No. 59	Probable Maximum Precipitation for California HMR58 and HMR59 shapefiles (2.9 MB)	1999	21.4
NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS HYDRO 39	Probable Maximum Precipitation for the Upper Deerfield River Drainage Massachusetts/Vermont	1984	1.9
NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS HYDRO 41	Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimates for the Drainage Above Dewey Dam, Johns Creek , Kentucky	1985	1.4
Technical Paper No. 42	Generalized Estimates of Probable Maximum Precipitation and Rainfall-Frequency Data for Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands	1961	4.2
Technical Paper No. 47	Probable Maximum Precipitation and Rainfall-Frequency Data for Alaska	1963	3.1

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