2018 Annual Weather Highlights - Fire Weather

Overview

2018 was an above average fire season for New Mexico. The total number of wildfire acreage and ignitions ended up above average. The number of emergency responder and land agency site specific (spot) forecast requests were above average. Red Flag Warnings are issued in New Mexico to highlight periods of strong wind, low relative humidity, an unstable atmosphere and dry fuels. The number of Red Flag Warning days was also above average. Moderate to large sized fires did impact the state (Figure 1). The Buzzard Fire located 10 miles east of Reserve burned 50,296 acres. The Buzzard Fire was caused by an illegal abandoned camp fire. The Ute Park Fire, located near U.S. Highway 64 in Ute Park burned 36,740 acres of state and private land. The Ute Park Fire cause is still under investigation. Several other large fires impacted the state but these fires burned the most acres and required significant resources.

The pre-significant green up period of February and March was active with wildfire. Conditions were unusually dry due to the lack of precipitation events and there was some carryover grass from 2017. Several Red Flag Warnings were issued in late January with an unusually high number in February and March.

Very dry conditions continued into spring. Significant wind and low relative humidity periods were common in spring. Fire danger peaked during May and June, which is average for New Mexico. Dry early summer conditions eventually gave way to increased low level moisture related to the North American Monsoon during early July. 

Active prescribed burning occurred during the late summer to fall to early winter period. Late October and November were especially dry and allowed burners to conduct several large burns. November ended up being one of the driest Novembers on record statewide. Pile and several small unit burns continued well into December, especially during the first half of the month. 

Figure 1.

Wildfires greater than 100 acres across New Mexico during 2018.

Graphic courtesy of Southwest Coordination Center (SWCC).

The average number of acres burned in New Mexico since 2000 is near 306,000. Around 360,500 acres burned across the state in 2018. The average number of wildfire ignitions is 1460. The number of fire starts in New Mexico during 2018 was 1334. See the two graphs below (Figs. 2 and 3).

Figures 2 and 3.

Acreage for human caused fires in 2018 was near one third the average acreage of 135,000 but keep in mind there were 222,185 acres where the cause of the fires was listed as unknown. The amount of lightning caused fire acreage in 2018 was 98,414, closer to the average of 135,000. Managed or resource benefit fires are started from lightning. Land agency officials review several factors, including the latest and expected trends in fire danger, in order to efficiently manage a lightning caused wildfire. See Figs. 4 and 5 below. 

Figures 4 and 5.

The National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque issued Red Flag Warnings for 54 separate days during 2018. That is 16 days greater compared to 2017. The average number of days since 2000 is 39. Warnings are issued to highlight the combination of weather and fuel dryness that promote critical fire behavior and fire growth. A total of 533 site specific or spot forecast requests were made to NWS Albuquerque. The average number since 2000 is 530. See Fig. 6 below. 

Figure 6.