Dangerous Cold Weather for Most of the Country; Rare Winter Storm for the South; Fire Weather Concerns for Southern California

Arctic air will filter south and east through early this week. As this cold air moves across the South, a rare winter storm is forecast to develop from Texas, Gulf Coast States into the Southeast through early this week. Several new daily record low temperatures are expected, including new record-low maximum temperatures. For Southern California, fire weather concerns increase this week. Read More >

Overview:
Hurricane Debby developed from Tropical Depression Four, that formed along the southern coast of Cuba around 11 PM EDT on August 2. The depression moved into the southeast Gulf of Mexico and strengthened into Tropical Storm Debby at 5 PM EDT on August 3. Debby continued organizing while turning northwest then north on August 4, strengthening to a hurricane at 11 PM EDT while centered about 100 miles west-northwest of Tampa. The hurricane gradually turned north-northeast while continuing to strengthen and made landfall near Steinhatchee, Florida, around 7 AM EDT August 5. Debby produced storm surge and wind damage across west central and southwest Florida as it passed by the area to the west. However its most significant impact was river and flash flooding caused by torrential rainfall, which in parts of Manatee and Sarasota counties totaled between 15 and 20 inches, prompting the closure of numerous roadways and requiring water rescues from stranded vehicles to homes and apartments in area neighborhoods. You can explore the impacts in the tabs below. Please note: this review and the data provided are preliminary. They are subject to updates and corrections as appropriate. The National Hurricane Center is responsible for conducting the official post-analysis of all tropical cyclones. Once compiled, the Tropical Cyclone Report is posted here.


Most images in the tabs below can be magnified by clicking, and resized back to original size with a second click.

Rainfall
Flooding
Winds
Other Links

Rainfall:
The images below show the rainfall analysis for West Central and Southwest Florida for the 24-hour period of 8 AM EDT August 4, 2024, to 8 AM EDT August 5, 2024 when most of the heavy rain fell, and for the 72-hour period of 8 AM EDT August 3, 2024, to 8 AM EDT August 6, 2024 which covers the entire event. Please note, these rainfall analysis graphics may contain errors and not all data may be considered official. Also, a detailed listing of rainfall amounts for sites across the region can be found within our Post Tropical Cyclone Reports page.
24-Hr Analysis with Point Values	24-Hr Analysis without Point Values	24-Hr Annual Exceedance Probability*

72-Hr Analysis with Point Values	72-Hr Analysis without Point Values	72-Hr Annual Exceedance Probability*

*

What is Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP)?
Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) is the probability associated with exceeding a given rainfall amount for a specified duration and at a given location in any given year at least once. Therefore, looking at the 24-hour Annual Exceedance Probability image above we see that in parts of central Manatee County that the AEP is 1 in 200 (dark green area). In other words, the annual chance of seeing this much rain in 24 hours is 0.5%.

A zoomable rainfall analysis in a GIS format can be viewed at Hurricane Debby - NWS Field GIW/GIS Mutual Aid.

Flooding:
Heavy rainfall caused signficant flooding in portions of Manatee and Sarasota Counties and sent rivers in and around this area into Major Flooding.
Centre Lake Subdivision Photo Credit: Manatee County		Centre Lake Subdivision Photo Credit: Manatee County
Golf Course Road Photo Credit: Manatee County		Golf Course Road Photo Credit: Manatee County
Gamble Creek Photo Credit: Manatee County		Tallevast Road Photo Credit: Manatee County

River Gauges:

Manatee River near Myakka Head at SR 64 Located in east central Manatee County		Manatee River at Rye Bridge Located in central Manatee County
Little Manatee River near Wimauma at US 301 Located in southern Hillsborough County		Alafia River at Lithia Pinecrest Road at Lithia Located in east central Hillsborough County

Winds:
There were also some strong wind gusts associated with Debby. Observed peak winds across West Central and Southwest Florida reached Tropical Storm Force in many locations. Portions of Levy County in the Florida Big Bend reported strong tropical-storm force winds, with isolated gusts to hurricane-force. A detailed listing of wind gusts for sites across the region can be found within our Post Tropical Cyclone Reports page.
Analysis with Point Values		Analysis without Point Values
Please note, this Preliminary Wind Gust analysis may contain errors and not all data may be considered official.

A zoomable wind gust analysis in a GIS format can be viewed at Hurricane Debby - NWS Field GIW/GIS Mutual Aid.

Dangerous Cold Weather for Most of the Country; Rare Winter Storm for the South; Fire Weather Concerns for Southern California

Hurricane Debby - August 2024