41st NOAA Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop3-6 October 2016, Orono, MEClimate Prediction S&T Digest |
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CONTENTS
OPENING ADDRESS Contemporary challenges in short-term climate forecasting 1. 2015-16 EL NIÑO The 2015-16 El Niño 2015-16 El Niño seasonal weather impacts from the OLR event perspective Winter 2015/16 atmospheric and terrestrial anomalies over North America: El Niño response and role of noise 2. CLIMATE MODELING, MME, PREDICTION & PREDICTABILITY Do statistical pattern corrections improve seasonal climate predictions in NMME models? Exploring the impact of SST on the extended range NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System Improved climate prediction services for Australia Status of week 3-4 activities at the Climate Prediction Center Assessment of ensemble regression to combine and weight seasonal forecasts from multiple models of the NMME Evaluation of an NMME-based hybrid prediction system for eastern North Pacific basin tropical cyclones Integration of systems engineering into weather-climate model optimization Objective, temporally and spatially skill-weighted consolidation of dynamical model forecasts for Week-2 outlooks Preliminary results of evaluation of week 3-4 reforecast data from Environment Canada Assessing performance of calibrated multi-model ensembles in the 3-4 week forecast period Roles of remote and local forcings in the variation and prediction of regional maritime continent rainfall in wet and dry seasons To improve hydrological prediction: the value of Medium Range Forecasts Observed tropical climate variability and long-term trend influences on U.S. temperature and precipitation forecasts for weeks 3 and 4 Evaluating CPCÂ’s operational seasonal temperature forecasts: Why aren't we beating a categorically warm forecast? 3. ENSO & Recent Climate Anomalies Remarkable increase in global sea surface temperature in 2014 and 2015: How was it related to El Niño and decadal variability? Atmospheric secular mode and its possible impact to recent El Nino teleconnection Interaction between the Indian Ocean dipole and ENSO associated with ocean subsurface variability What is the variability in US west coast winter precipitation during strong El Niño events? A staged communication approach to advising Australian industry on the risk of El Niño or La Niña developing 4. PREDICTION, ATTRIBUTION & ANALYSIS OF HIGH IMPACT EXTREMES CLIMATE EVENTS Enhancing resilience to heat extremes: Forecasting excessive heat events at subseasonal lead times (week-2 to week-4) Assessing temperature extreme trends in western ME and NH A new dataset to analyze extreme events in New England February 2015: A month to remember in New England for record cold Causes of extreme ridges that induce California droughts Attribution and prediction of China droughts across scales The Quantification of Rainfall Needed to Overcome Drought: Study in North Texas An operational drought monitoring system for the Caribbean and Central America 5. CLIMATE SERVICES Consultation with industry to improve AustraliaÂ’s climate prediction services Application of seasonal rainfall forecasts to inform the implementation of drought contingency triggers in selected water supply reservoirs in Texas 6. ARCTIC CLIMATE & LINKAGES TO LOWER LATITUDES Verification of experimental sea ice forecasts at the NCEP Climate Prediction Center Recommendations on categorizing Arctic air mass intensity/coverage and improving the monitoring of Arctic source regions across the Northern Hemisphere Prediction of seasonal Arctic sea ice extent using the NMME The rapid Arctic warming of January 2016: Impacts, processes, and predictability 7. GENERAL SESSION: CLIMATE DIAGNOSTICS, PREDICTION, ANALYSES AND REANALYSES Rediscovering the MJO extratropical response: Streamfunction as a preferred variable for subseasonal teleconnection analysis Variations of Mid-Atlantic trough and associated American-Atlantic-Eurasian climate anomalies A preliminary examination of a conventional ENKF atmospheric reanalysis Initial assessment of the Conventional Observation Reanalysis A process-based attribution to the difference in the annual variation of surface temperature between the monsoon and non-monsoon regions An analysis of the MJO influence on the rainfall in subtropical coastal areas of East Asia APPENDIX
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