Thunderstorms and Heavy Rainfall from the Plains to the Mid-Atlantic

Severe thunderstorms producing damaging winds are most likely over parts of the Dakotas into Minnesota from this afternoon into the overnight, with other isolated storms producing hail or wind over the northern High Plains. In the Northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic, heavy to excessive rain may bring flash and urban flooding through Wednesday. Read More >

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FXZS60 NSTU 070105
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
205 PM SST Mon Jul 6 2026

.Discussion...
A high pressure system to the south continues to generate breezy
conditions and isolated showers for the territory. Meanwhile, cloudy
skies extending from a trough to the north were throughout the
day. Latest satellite trends confirm this pattern, with cool and
dry air from the south dominating weather as we speak. However,
expect these conditions to gradually diminish Tuesday, as the
trough tracks towards the Samoa Island chain.

Model guidance has been consistent in bringing the trough over
the Islands Tuesday night through the Wednesday night. The
potential for flash flooding continues to increase, especially as
current observations indicate the trough remains active. If
thunderstorm activity still holds when it moves over the Islands,
expect heavy showers and thunderstorms for the Tuesday night
through Wednesday night timeframe. Winds are expected to be light
and variable as the trough moves directly over the Islands, but
with thunderstorms in the vicinity, winds may be gusty at times.

By Thursday, the trough is expected to weaken over the area as
another high pressure system builds over New Zealand. Breezy south
winds and generally fair weather are expected to return through
the weekend.

&&

.Marine...
Latest wave heights observed at the Aunu`u PacIOOS buoy are around
8 to 10 feet, which is higher than forecast. This is due to a
southeast trade wind regime that prompted a High Surf Advisory
this afternoon. Expect high surf, strong rip currents, and choppy
seas to continue through Tuesday. As winds trend to a light breeze
Tuesday afternoon, expect seas to gradually subside by then.
Although wave heights are forecast to be lower by midweek into the
weekend, a strong south swell may keep seas elevated and prolong
the advisory through the end of the week.

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory
Small Craft Advisory

&&

$$

TM