American Samoa's Tropical Cyclone Outlook 2025-26

Below Normal to Near Normal Tropical Cyclone (TC) Activity anticipated for American Samoa in the 2025-26 TC Season Read More >

814
FXZS60 NSTU 060045
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
145 PM SST Fri Dec 5 2025

.Short term [tonight through Sunday night]...
Mostly clear skies associated with stable weather was observed
over Tutuila island early this morning. However, low-level
cumulus clouds have been observed building over the territory
this afternoon. This afternoon`s RAOB upper-air sounding depicts
an atmosphere with increasing instability, favorable for passing
showers. This is consistent with model data depicting potential
for passing showers increasing from isolated (<20%) to scattered
(50%) tonight into the weekend. Flooding is not expected from
this activity.

A low pressure system will develop along the southern portion of
the Fiji island chain this weekend. This will turn winds out of
the northeast across the territory this weekend. These
northeasterly winds are expected to be breezy and may reach as
high as 20 mph at times. This northeasterly flow will pull
equatorial moisture over the territory, increasing rain chances
to numerous showers by Sunday night.

.Long term [Monday through Friday]...
The northeasterly winds are anticipated to continue to hold
numerous showers over the area through at least early Tuesday as
the associated low pressure slowly moves to the south, between
Fiji and New Zealand. The confidence is low regarding the
potential for flash flooding during this time frame.

By late Tuesday into Wednesday, as the low pressure moves further
away to the south, its influence on the wind field across the
area is forecast to decrease. This will allow winds to slightly
weaken and turn out of the east, decreasing showers to scattered
and passing across the territory. By Thursday night into Friday,
models indicate surface convergence of the winds developing
within the easterly flow regime, which would once again increase
rain chances for late week.

&&

.Marine...
Seas of 4 to 6 feet have been observed througout the day today
with peak period times between 10 and 15 seconds. These favorable
marine conditions will remain tonight. As winds turn out of the
northeast and increase, seas are forecast to begin building this
weekend. Seas are forecast to reach advisory levels by late
Saturday and remain rough (6 to 8 feet) for the remainder of the
forecast period. Additionally, peak period times are expected to
remain somewhat elevated, in the 10 to 15 second range, which may
contribute to strong currents at times.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Barton