Areas of Dangerous Heat and Heavy Rain with Possible Flooding into this Weekend

Hot temperatures and high humidity are forecast to continue across much of northeast Texas into the mid-Mississippi Valley into this weekend with heat advisories in effect. Heavy to excessive rainfall occurring at times through Saturday could bring areas of flooding across parts of the central Plains into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes, and Four Corners states. Read More >

583
FXZS60 NSTU 170101
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
201 PM SST Wed Sep 16 2026

.Discussion...
Westerly winds continue to steer a trough located west of the
Samoa Islands towards the island chain. Latest satellite
observations indicate showers developing over Upolu and Savai`i
as the trough moves into the area. However, the trough appears to
have weakened since this morning, so the risk of flash flooding
remains low. Nonetheless, this afternoon`s upper air sounding
depicts a moist and unstable profile, suggesting that periods of
heavy rainfall remain possible.

Model guidance suggests the trough will linger in the area
through the new week. Expect brief, passing showers during this
timeframe, with periods heavy rainfall possible. Light and
variable winds will persist through the forecast period.

.Marine...
Wave heights observed at the PacIOOS buoy are around 7 to 9 feet,
currently exceeding forecasted values. Expect elevated seas to
persist through Thursday as a high pressure system to the south
continues to generate breezy winds nearby. As the high tracks
eastward, seas should gradually subside Thursday night. Light and
variable winds expected over the weekend should allow seas to
remain relatively calm.

Additionally, a strong south swell remains evident across coastal
waters, with observations indicating peak periods near 15
seconds. Model guidance suggests the swell will subside by
Thursday night and continue to diminish through the weekend as it
exits the region. However, another strong southwest swell is
expected to move into the area by Monday.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory
Small Craft Advisory

&&

$$

TM