El Nino Possible Impacts & What you can do

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705
FXZS60 NSTU 050109
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
209 PM SST Sun Oct 4 2026

.DISCUSSION...
Showers embedded within the easterly wind flow continues to move
across the islands from time to time. This pattern is supported by
this afternoon`s (05/00Z) upper air observations (RAOB) showing
moisture concentration at the surface boundary layer. Model data
show these patterns remaining over the area throughout the
forecast period. Model solutions show a high pressure system to
the south continuing to produce moderate to fresh east winds
tonight through at least Monday night, turning southeast as it
increases to a strong breeze by Tuesday. This high pressure system
will also hold the trough to the north through at least midweek.

As the week progresses, model data shows another high pressure
system moving in from the southwest, maintaining the strong
southeast breeze as it also continues to hold the trough to the
north of the islands. Therefore, expect scattered to numerous
showers with moderate to strong east-southeast winds for this
forecast period.

&&

.Marine...
Combined seas have slightly subsided as winds decreased to a
moderate east flow. Data from the PacIOOS buoys together with the
latest model run show seas trending ownward, briefly tonight
through at least Monday night. This prompted the cancellation of
the high surf advisory. By Tuesday when winds begin to increase
to a fresh to strong (20 to 25 knots) east breeze, seas will
gradually build as well. Winds this strong will keep choppy and
unfavorable conditions across the coastal waters for the majority
of the forecast period. A high surf advisory will likely be re-
issued for this time frame. In the meantime, the advisory for
small crafts will remain in effect. Additionally. the threat of
high surfs have subsided and the risk of strong rip currents are
now at low to moderate levels, especially for the southeast to
east shorelines.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

High Surf Advisory is cancelled.
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect.

&&

$$

JTAllen