American Samoa's Tropical Cyclone Outlook 2025-26

Below Normal to Near Normal Tropical Cyclone (TC) Activity anticipated for American Samoa in the 2025-26 TC Season Read More >

834
FXZS60 NSTU 010102
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
202 PM SST Tue Mar 31 2026

.DISCUSSION...
Moderate north wind flow continues to push single cell pop-ups
carrying brief passing showers over the islands throughout the
day. These north winds have also aided in pushing the trough
further south and away from the islands. Satellite imageries show
improving conditions as drier and more stable air moves over the
area for the next couple of days. The atmospheric profile
displayed on the upper air observations (RAOB) from this afternoon
(01/00Z) supports a conditionally stable environment, similar to
the last 24 hours. Hence, the threat of flash flooding has
diminished, and the flood watch is now cancelled.

Although model data shows improving conditions over the area
tonight and the rest of the short term period (thru Thursday),
model data also shows a shortwave trough moving through the
islands late Friday night through Saturday. This will again
briefly increase the potential for showers across the territory.
By the new week, model data shows a low pressure system
materializing to the west of the Fiji Islands, turning winds
northeast as it migrates southeast. Gentle to moderate east-
northeast winds with embedded showers will prevail for the rest of
the forecast period.

&&

.Marine...
Ocean conditions continue to gradually subside throughout the
day. Observations from the PacIOOS buoys show heights around 6 to
8 feet with peak periods around 9 to 11 seconds. Although these
values are peaking at the small craft advisory threshold (8 feet
and/or 20 knots), seas will continue to subside further below
these thresholds, overnight tonight. The trend expected for
tonight through at least Thursday night will be favorable for
mariners and water recreational activities alike. The only
exceptions of unfavorable conditions are the likelihood of seas
and winds elevated by thunderstorms nearby from time to time.
However, model data shows the trough moving away from the area,
minimizing the threat of thunderstorms. Model data also shows a
large south swell moveing closer to the islands on Friday. This
will likely prompt the issuance of alerts for this time frame. By
Sunday, seas will subside to below advisory thresholds again.
Thus, the advisories for small crafts and high surfs are now
cancelled.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

High Surf Advisory Cancelled
Small Craft Advisory Cancelled
Flood Watch Cancelled

&&

$$

JTAllen