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403
FXZS60 NSTU 170102
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
202 PM SST Thu Jul 16 2026

.DISCUSSION...
Fair weather patterns remain across the territory as strong
trades continue to push open-cell cumuli clouds over the area.
A strong high pressure system near New Zealand will continue to
generate fresh to strong east-southeast winds for the remainder of
the week. As the high pressure system maintains its strength as it
migrates east, it will also continue to hold a trough to the north
of the area through at least Monday night. This scenario will
keep scattered showers with gusty winds from time to time through
this time period.

However, by Tuesday night to the end of the forecast period, model
data shows a low pressure system embedded within the aforementioend
trough, moving closer to the islands The aforementioned high
pressure system will be well to the southeast of the area,
decreasing east-southeast winds to a gentle to moderate breeze,
and also allowing the low pressure system and trough to move
closer to the area. This will also increase the potential for
showers for the latter part of the forecast period.

Therefore, expect periods of scattered showers with fresh to
strong east-southeast winds with higher gusts to remain for
tonight through at least Monday night. Numerous showers with gnelt
to moderate east-southeast winds is forecast for the remainder of
the long term period.

&&

.Marine...
With strong east-southeast winds moving across the island
throughout the day, combined seas are also gradually building
across the coastal waters. This is supported by the latest data
from the PacIOOS buoys, with wave heights around 11 feet and 8
seconds short. These wind-driven waves are producing dangerous
surfs, elevated seas, and strong rip currents at all coastal
areas, especially the south and east facing shores. Also shown on
the latest model data is the possibility for seas to build to
warning levels (>15 feet). These conditions will be monitored as
more data becomes available. Thus, the advisories for small crafts
and high surfs continue to remain in effect for tonight through at
least the weekend.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory
High Surf Advisory
Small Craft Advisory

&&

$$

JTAllen