American Samoa's Tropical Cyclone Outlook 2025-26

Below Normal to Near Normal Tropical Cyclone (TC) Activity anticipated for American Samoa in the 2025-26 TC Season Read More >

229
FXZS60 NSTU 020158
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
258 PM SST Thu Jan 1 2026

.Short term...

Satellite imagery continues to show a low pressure system to the
south/southeast moving away from the region. This low pressure
brought drier air from the south over the American Samoa islands
throughout the past few days. However, a high pressure to the
east/southeast of the territory is moving this trough towards the
islands and expected to move over American Samoa on Friday.
However, wind convergence is to decrease, which is to decrease
the strength of the trough. Therefore, scattered to numerous
showers (50% to 60% chance) is forecast for Friday, but flash
flooding is not expected. Winds remain light.

Another trough is anticipated to move in from the northeast on
Saturday night through early Monday due to the equatorial ridge to
the northeast. Showers increase to numerous (60 to 70% chance) and
winds increase from the northeast to around 15 mph. At this time,
the trough is not anticipated to be strong enough to cause
damaging flash flooding, but ponding on the roadways may occur
throughout this time. More clouds than sun is anticipated with
temperature at to below average.

.Long term...

By Monday evening, the trough is forecast to move west. A high
pressure system to the southeast is to bring easterly trades
around 10 to 15 mph. If showers occur, it would be in the passing
form. As we are in the middle of our rainy season, the week`s
forecast is to bring rainfall below average for this time of the
year.

&&

.Marine...

The latest data from the PacIOOS buoy located to the west of
Tutuila and to the east of Aunu`u shows sea heights below advisory
levels. Swell is to be coming from the north beginning tomorrow,
but is not anticipated to build seas to Small Craft Advisory
levels. Winds remain light through Friday, but become a gentle to
moderate northeasterly breeze by Friday night before becoming a
moderate northeasterly breeze on Saturday night and to remain
through the weekend. Even though seas are be choppy, seas and
winds are low enough to keep below Small Craft Advisory levels.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE

&&

$$

LaPlante