El Nino Possible Impacts & What you can do

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FXZS60 NSTU 100104
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
204 PM SST Fri Oct 9 2026

.DISCUSSION...
Waves of open-cell cumuli clouds embedded within the wind flow
continues to move over the islands throughout the day. These
clouds are expected to continue to produce brief scattered to
numerous showers for tonight through at least Monay. This is due
to a high pressure system to the south generating the strong and
gusty winds. This has also prompted the issuance of a wind
advisory, earlier. Thus, expect scattered to numerous showers and
strong winds with higher gusts to persist for tonight through at
least midweek.

However, the major threat is an active trough currently stationed
just north of the territory, oriented west to east, and likely
held by the strong east-southeast winds in place. Model data show
the aformentioned high pressure system exiting to the east-
southeast, decreasing winds to a moderate flow, and allowing the
trough to move over the area by late Monday into Tuesday. Model
data also show the trough moving closer to and over the area,
increasing the potential for flash flooding conditions.
Additoinally, model projections show embedded low pressure systems
moving along the trough line as the potential for any one to
develop, increases. Winds will slightly decrease by midweek as
this scenario plays out. Will continue to monitor conditions and
issue alerts as more data becomes available.

&&

.Marine...
Elevated seas and increased winds has been observed within the
last couple of hours. This has prompted the issuance of a wind
advisory, earlier. These conditions are expected to remain across
all of American Samoa coastal waters. As model data suggests, the
strong winds will likely peak on Sunday, and seas will potentially
build futher to warning levels by this weekend. The threat of rough
seas, higher than normal surfs, strong and gusty winds, dangerous
rip currents, and possible thunderstorms is expected for this
forecast period.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory
High Surf Advisory
Small Craft Advisory
Hydrologic Outlook

&&

$$

JTALlen