169
FXZS60 NSTU 070043
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
143 PM SST Wed May 6 2026

.DISCUSSION...
Satellite imageries continue to show remnants of a trough
connected to a low pressure system to the south of the area, near
the Tonga Islands, move across the territory. Shallow convections
produced by land induced clouds have been observed throughout the
day, evident of brief passing showers and some thunderstorm
activity on satellite imageries. These conditions are also
supported by the upper air observations (RAOB) from this
afternoon (07/00Z). Elevated threshold values of thunderstorm
signals, instability, and gentle to moderate northwest winds shows
an unstable atmospheric environment over the area. Model
solutions are showing these conditions remaining over the
territory through at least early Thursday. By Thursday night,
light winds will shift east as it increases to a gentle to
moderate wind flow pattern for the short term period. Thus, expect
scattered to numerous showers, heavy at times with light and
variable winds for tonight through Thursday night, turning east at
a gentle breeze on Friday.

By Saturday through the end of the long term period, models are
showing a broad high pressure system further southeast and a
weaker high pressure system just south of the Fiji Islands,
merging as it generates moderate trades with embedded showers.
These trades are expected to remain over the area through at least
Saturday night. By Sunday, winds will shift east and remain for
the rest of the period. Expect scattered to numerous showers
through the midweek.

&&

.Marine...
Seas and surfs have gradually subsided to below advisory
thresholds (8 feet and 10 feet respectively) throughout the day.
This trend will continue for tonight and Thursday. However, model
observations show seas slightly elevating on Thursday night
through at least Friday night. This is likely due to a south swell
generated by a low pressure system south of the area, migrating
further south. Once this south swell passes, combined seas will
beging to subside to more favorable conditions on Saturday through
the rest of the forecast period. Nevertheless, model data also
show trade winds increasing to moderate breeze by Saturday and
remaining through the rest of the forecast period. These winds may
generate white caps and choppy conditions for small crafts.
Therefore, will continue to monitor these conditions as more data
becomes available. In the meantime, advisories for small crafts
and high surfs are now cancelled.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory Cancelled
Small Craft Advisory Cancelled

&&

$$

JTAllen