American Samoa's Tropical Cyclone Outlook 2026-27

Above-Normal Tropical Cyclone (TC) Activity anticipated for American Samoa in the 2026-26 TC Season Read More >

206
FXZS60 NSTU 010133
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
233 PM SST Sat Oct 31 2026

.Short term...

Satellite imagery from this morning showed a weak trough over the
American Samoa islands. This produced cloudy skies and light
showers. ASCAT imagery showed converging winds over the territory
to confirm the trough`s location.

However, the trough is slowly moving westward and away from the
area. Scattered to numerous showers (50 to 60% chance) is forecast
for the evening with clouds slowly decreasing. East/southeasterly
winds slowly increase as well.

For Sunday through Tuesday, drier air aloft will reduce clouds and
the rainfall to scattered showers (30 to 40% chance).
East/southeasterly trades may reach up to 20 mph at times. If
showers occur, it would be in the passing form. The risk of flash
flooding is very low during this time.

.Long term...

A ridge from the southwest early this week will move eastward for
mid to late week. This will bring is cooler air than normal with
elevated east/southeasterly tradewinds. Showers remain scattered.
There is no threat for severe weather during this time.

There is no risk of tropical development for the next 7 days.

&&

.Marine...

Benign sea conditions remained today throughout the American Samoa
coastal waters. The PacIOOS buoy to the east of Aunu`u shows waves
around 6 feet with northerly swell and less than this at the buoy
to the west of Tutuila.

Conditions are forecast to change beginning Sunday. A moderate
east/southeasterly breeze is expected to become fresh throughout
the day and remain for the majority of the week. Seas are to build
throughout the week and may reach up to 13 feet by Tuesday night
and Wednesday. Winds may decrease slightly for the rest of the
week, but seas are to remain rough.

Expect Small Craft Advisory conditions beginning Sunday and to
remain for the rest of the week. With waves possibly reaching up
to 13 feet, a High Surf Advisory is likely from early to at least
mid-week.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE

&&

$$

LaPlante