Remnants of Arthur and Heavy Rainfall Across the South; Fire Weather Threat in the West

Life-threatening, potentially catastrophic flash flooding expected along the central Gulf Coast as the remnants of Arthur track across the area. Isolated brief tornadoes and damaging gusts remain possible overnight in the Southeast. Isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms may cause lightning-ignited fires and erratic behavior due to gusty winds across parts of the West Friday. Read More >

579
FXZS60 NSTU 190112
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
212 PM SST Thu Jun 18 2026

.Short term...

Satellite imagery has shown increasing showers over the American
Samoa islands as a trough is seen to the north of the territory
and a front to the southwest. These showers are not anticipated to
be heavy enough to cause flash flooding. The trough to the north
is anticipated to weaken as it moves closer to the territory. The
trough to the southwest is to move over the area Friday and Friday
night. Throughout this time, the risk of showers is numerous (60
to 70% chance). More clouds than sun are expected for Friday.
Winds are forecast to become southeasterly tonight and to increase
to around 15 mph on Friday.

By the weekend, the aforementioned trough is to move to the north
of the islands. Southerly winds are forecast to increase up to
around 20 to 25 mph by Saturday with trade wind showers expected.
A ridge of high pressure is projected to bring drier than normal
air over the territory by Sunday, which will decrease the risk of
passing showers to isolated to scattered (30% chance) with more
sun than clouds during the day.

.Long term...

For early to the middle of next week, the aforementioned high
pressure system is to weaken. Southerly winds are forecast to
decrease during this time as the aforementioned front moves
further away from the region to decrease the interaction with the
ridge. Rainfall is anticipated to be below average and no severe
weather is expected. More sun than clouds are forecast throughout
the days with temperatures slightly above average.

&&

.Marine...

Finally, ideal sea conditions were observed today across the
American Samoa coastal waters. However, conditions are forecast to
become adverse beginning on the second half of the day Friday
through the weekend. Southeasterly trades are to increase
throughout the day on Friday with Small Craft Advisory conditions
likely late in the day. By Friday evening, winds increase to a
fresh south/southeasterly breeze and to peak at a strong
southerly breeze by Saturday. Wind driven waves may peak at 12
feet by Saturday before slowly easing by the second half of the
weekend. However, Small Craft Advisory conditions remain likely
through the beginning of next week.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE

&&

$$

LaPlante