American Samoa's Tropical Cyclone Outlook 2025-26

Below Normal to Near Normal Tropical Cyclone (TC) Activity anticipated for American Samoa in the 2025-26 TC Season Read More >

066
FXZS60 NSTU 170046
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
146 PM SST Thu Apr 16 2026

.DISCUSSION...
Partly cloudy skies with minimal moisture lingered over the
islands in the morning hours. However, as the afternoon hours
approach, open-cell cumuli clouds moving in from the east-
northeast together with mid to upper level clouds associated with
a trough to the west is increasingly building over the area. These
conditions are also shown on the upper air observations (RAOB)
from this afternoon (17/00Z), increasing instability and moisture
over the islands, tonight. Thus, expect numerous to widespread
showers with embedded thunderstorms and light and variable winds
to prevail for tonight through early Friday. By Friday afternoon,
model data shows improving conditions and remaining for the rest
of the weekend as a high pressure system to the south-southwest
continues to push the aforemtioned trough further east. Expect
passing showers with gentle to moderate easterlies for the rest of
the weekend.

By the new week, model data shows a short-wave trough moving
through the area as it produces brief passing showers on Sunday
night through midweek. Model solutions also show the aforementioned
high pressure system generating gentle to moderate easterlies
with embedded showers as it continues to migrate east for the rest
of the long term period. Therefore, expect scattered to numerous
showers with gentle to moderate east-southeast winds for the rest
of the new week.

&&

.Marine...
No significcant swell is expected for this forecast period
(tonight through Tuesday). Observations reported by the PacIOOS
buoys (Aunu`u and King-Poloa) show calm and smooth conditions
across the American Samoa coastal waters. These conditions have
been remaining over the area for the last few days. The Wave Watch
III model data continues to show favorable seas for the rest of
the forecast period. Seas of 4 to 6 feet will likely remain in the
area for tonight through the end of the forecast period.
Nevertheless, elevated seas and gusty winds is possible for
tonight due to an increased probability of thunderstorms embedded
within the aforementioned trough. Otherwise, no other significant
swell is expected for this time frame.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

JTAllen