Synoptic discussion for American Samoa.

619
FXZS60 NSTU 110054
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
154 PM SST Tue Nov 10 2026

.Short term [tonight through Thursday night]...
The pressure gradient between a ridge of high pressure to the
south and a trough of low pressure to the northeast (now denoted
invest 95P by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center) will continue to
generate breezy trade winds across the Samoan Islands region.
Expect winds up to 25 mph with higher gusts across the American
Samoa islands over the short term time period.

A trade wind inversion is currently holding mostly stable weather
conditions for American Samoa with only scattered passing showers
expected. However, by late Thursday a weak area of convergence is
expected to develop in the low-level trade wind flow. This will
act as a surface trough, forcing upward motion and should bring at
least a slight increase in rainfall. However, given the subtle
nature of this trough, confidence is low that enough rain will
fall to provide any relief for the Moderate Drought (D1)
conditions across American Samoa.

.Long term [Friday through Tuesday]...
Enhanced rainfall due to the subtle trade wind disturbance may
continue into the beginning of the weekend. However, mostly
stable trade wind conditions are expected to return by at least
Sunday. Breezy trade winds of up to 25 mph with higher gusts
should continue to persist through the end of the forecast
period as strong pressure gradient between high pressure to the
south and low pressure to the north remains.

Invest 95P is not projected to lead to any direct impacts to
American Samoa over the next 7 days aside from its
strengthening of the pressure gradient and associated trade
winds. However, we will be closely monitoring the progression of
Invest 95P, particularly for the middle of next week through next
weekend. Uncertainty remains regarding the progression and
movement from any potential tropical development. We will
continue to provide updates as we get closer to this timeframe as
confidence improves. As we are in Hurricane Season, it is
important to be prepared and have a plan before a storm occurs.

&&

.Marine...
Wave heights at the PacIOOS Aunu`u buoy have built to almost 12
feet today and are projected to peak tonight according to the
ECMWF Wave model. This could push wave heights as high as 14 feet
tonight, with surf nearing warning levels. Beyond tonight, seas
are expected to subside slightly but remain hazardous (9 to 12
feet) for the remainder of the forecast period, driven by the
fresh to strong trade wind breeze. Expect hazardous, choppy wind
driven waves near or exceeding 10 feet throughout the forecast
period, high surf for south through east facing shorelines, and
increased risk of powerful rip currents throughout the forecast
period. Mariners and those in surf prone areas alike should heed
caution as High Surf and Small Craft Advisories should remain in
effect throughout the week.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory
Small Craft Advisory

&&

$$

Barton