American Samoa's Tropical Cyclone Outlook 2025-26

Below Normal to Near Normal Tropical Cyclone (TC) Activity anticipated for American Samoa in the 2025-26 TC Season Read More >

328
FXZS60 NSTU 050118
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
218 PM SST Wed Mar 4 2026

.Short term...

Satellite imagery this morning and early afternoon showed a few
passing showers over the American Samoa islands. Otherwise, a mix
of sun and clouds remained over the territory with decreasing
easterly winds. To the east and southeast of Ta`u, showers from a
trough is seen on visible satellite imagery. This trough is
anticipated to move over the islands tonight and remain through
Friday. This will increase the risk of showers to numerous showers
(60% chance). More clouds than sun are forecast during the days
throughout this time with winds becoming light and variable.
Forecast confidence in rainfall is medium as there is a chance
that the majority of this rainfall is to remain to the south to
decrease the risk of rain.

.Long term...

For Friday night and Saturday, the trough is anticipated to slowly
move away from the region. Mainly cloudy skies remain in the
forecast with the risk of showers lowering slightly to scattered
to numerous (50 to 60%) with a light northerly breeze.

For the second half of the weekend and into the middle of next
week, a ridge from a dominant high pressure system to the east is
forecast to generate easterly trades up to around 20 mph with
passing tradewind showers.

For the next 7 days, there is no risk of tropical development near
American Samoa.

&&

.Marine...

As easterly winds decreased since the overnight hours, seas eased
throughout the morning and early afternoon. Seas are to remain
below the Small Craft Advisory criteria tonight through early
tomorrow. During the day Thursday and Friday, a
south/southwesterly swell is projected to move through the
American Samoa waters. This is generate long period seas during
this time. Therefore, we are not expected choppy conditions and
breaking waves are not anticipated over open waters. However, surf
heights are expected to build throughout this time to become at
least close to High Surf Advisory levels for the western and
southern coastlines.

Seas are to ease on Saturday. However, winds are to increase to a
fresh easterly breeze for Sunday and into early next week to build
seas with choppy conditions.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE

&&

$$

LaPlante