American Samoa's Tropical Cyclone Outlook 2025-26

Below Normal to Near Normal Tropical Cyclone (TC) Activity anticipated for American Samoa in the 2025-26 TC Season Read More >

447
FXZS60 NSTU 020051
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
151 PM SST Wed Apr 1 2026

.DISCUSSION...
The threat of flash flooding and heavy showers has significantly
decreased in the last 12 to 16 hours. Partly cloudy skies with
minimal to no rainfall was observed throughout the day. These
conditions are further supported by the stable atmospheric profile
shown on the upper air observations (RAOB) from this afternoon
(02/00Z). Additionally, the latest satellite imageries show the
trough south of the area as gentle north winds remain across the
territory. Model projections show a light to moderate east wind
flow prevailing after tonight. With the east wind flow, embedded
passing showers is expected.

By the end of the week, model data shows a low pressure system
developing to the west-northwest of the Fiji Islands, migrating
south-southeast. As this system migrates closer to the Fiji
Islands and south of the territory, it will slightly turn winds
northeast with embedded passing showers to remain. Model data
projects no impacts to the territory from this system.

Therefore, expect isolated to scattered showers with light to
moderate north winds for tonight turning east on Thursday through
the end of the forecast period.

&&

.Marine...
Data collected at the PacIOOS buoys show calm and serene
conditions. Seas of 5 to 7 feet are projected to remain tonight
through at least Friday. The Wave Watch III model data shows a
large south swell reaching shorelines by Friday night through the
end of the forecast period. This swell is expected to reach
advisory thresholds as peak periods are projected to reach 20
seconds or longer. Seas of 7 to 9 feet are expected, and with the
long periods, high surfs and strong rip currents will likely be
a threat for this time frame. Thus, expect favorable conditions
for tonight through Friday, becoming unfavorable for the rest of
the period.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

JTAllen