658
FXZS60 NSTU 090100
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
200 PM SST Thu Oct 8 2026

.Short term [tonight through Saturday night]...
A ridge of high pressure to the south continues to hold an active
trough near and to the north of Swains Island, while bringing a
breezy southeasterly trade wind regime to the rest of American
Samoa. This ridge is holding a stable profile over American
Samoa, with a trade wind inversion capping convective activity at
around 6500 feet above ground level as seen in this afternoon`s
00Z RAOB upper-air observation. Therefore, limited rainfall with
only brief passing showers is expected, showers remaining shallow
with cloud tops capped at the inversion layer, as the trade wind
regime remains in place through the short term forecast period.

A Wind Advisory may be necessary this weekend as the ridge
slightly increases southeasterly trades near the advisory
threshold of 30 mph with higher gusts possible, especially in
high terrain areas. These winds will bring increased travel
difficulties for high profile vehicles, and be capable of blowing
around loose un-secured objects.

.Long term [Sunday through Thursday]...
Windy and stable conditions continue to start the long term
forecast period. However, as the ridge of high pressure moves
eastward and away from the area, trade winds will slightly weaken
and the trough will drift southward towards the territory. Most
model guidance indicates the trough drifting fully over American
Samoa by late Tuesday or Wednesday and remaining through the
week. Model data projects that the trough will remain strong and
active, potentially even strengthening further as embedded areas
of low pressure develop along it. Flash flooding is possible as
this trough will bring the potential for heavy and/or persistent
showers, thunderstorms, and gusty winds associated with said
showers or embedded low pressures.

&&

.Marine...
The gusty southeasterly trades are combining with a long period
south-southwesterly swell to produce large and hazardous sea and
surf conditions. Conditions are projected to worsen further this
weekend as trade winds strengthen into a strong to near-gale
force breeze. Wave heights on Sunday are projected to near 15
feet with surf heights approaching the High Surf Warning
threshold. South and east facing beaches and rockfaces prone to
high surf should be avoided, and swimming will be dangerous with
an increased potential for rip currents. Conditions will begin to
slightly improve to start the new week, but will still remain
hazardous. Inexperienced mariners operating small vessels should
be prepared to remain in port for an extended period of time.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory
Small Craft Advisory

&&

$$

Barton