490
FXZS60 NSTU 120054
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
154 PM SST Sun Oct 11 2026

.Discussion...
A strong high pressure system to the south continues to maintain
strong trade winds across the territory. Winds have been reaching
gusts up to 30 mph, with sustained winds around 25 mph recorded at
the weather station. As a result, the Wind Advisory has been
extended through Monday, rather than ending tonight as previously
forecast. Expect wind conditions with showers embedded within the
trade wind flow to persist through Monday before winds slightly
weaken on Tuesday.

Model guidance continues to suggest the active trough to the north
shifting closer to the islands as the high pressure system
slightly recedes southward. Although the high is not expected to
retreat completely (this would keep tradewinds in the area), it
may weaken just enough to allow the trough to approach the
islands by midweek. Earlier model runs suggested showers could
begin increasing as early as Tuesday night. However, the latest
guidance indicates a delayed arrival, with the potential for
flash flooding increasing by Wednesday night and continuing
through the weekend.

Model guidance continues to indicate several low pressure systems
to form within the trough, which could bring active weather to
the territory from midweek through the weekend. However,
uncertainty remains regarding the position of the trough, as some
models keep the trough axis farther north than previously
anticipated, potentially keeping the bulk of active weather away
from the islands. On the other hand, if the high pressure system
weakens more than forecast, the trough axis could shift more south
and over the territory, which would develop the aforementioned
lows directly over us.

Given these uncertainties, the forecast will remain highly
dependent on the strength of the high pressure system and the
positioning of the trough over the next several days. Trends in
model guidance will continue to be monitored closely as confidence
in the midweek to weekend forecast improves.

&&

.Marine...
Lastest observations from the Aunu`u PacIOOS buoy show wave
heights around 10 to 13 feet, with short peak periods around 8 to
10 seconds. These short periods indicate that seas remain largely
wind-driven due to persistent strong tradewinds across the
territory. Although surf remain just below the High Surf Warning
criteria of 15 feet or higher, hazardous marine conditions
persist.

Wave heights are expected to remain elevated due to the lingering
trade winds, but should slightly diminish Monday into Tuesday as
winds gradually weaken to just below the advisory thresholds of 20
knots. By midweek, the approaching trough may also bring the
potential for thunderstorms across the area, further contributing
to hazardous ocean conditions.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory
High Surf Advisory
Small Craft Advisory

&&

$$

TM