American Samoa's Tropical Cyclone Outlook 2025-26

Below Normal to Near Normal Tropical Cyclone (TC) Activity anticipated for American Samoa in the 2025-26 TC Season Read More >

836
FXZS60 NSTU 290127
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
200 PM SST Jan 28 2026

.Discussion...
The monsoonal trough that brought nearly three inches of heavy
rainfall this morning continues to pose a risk for flash flooding
across the area through Saturday. Latest satellite data shows
active thunderstorms over Upolu and Savaii, along with cyclonic
activity east of Manu`a embedded within the trough. Although
low-pressure systems are evident within the trough, no tropical
cyclone development is expected at this time. However, model
guidance continues to indicate unsettled weather through the
end of the week with the trough axis moves over the Islands Thursday
This unsettled weather includes: heavy rainfall, flash flooding,
possible thunderstorms and winds approaching advisory levels.
Widespread showers will persist through Saturday, however,
windspeeds are forecast to increase as it turns north-northwest
Thursday through Friday. Winds from this direction may strengthen
downslope mountains, causing some villages, particularly harbor
areas to experience stronger gusts. As we remain within hurricane
season, the public is encouraged to stay informed and be prepared,
as conditions remain unstable.

By Saturday, a ridge to the east will push the trough southward,
resulting in a decrease in shower activity across the territory.
Scattered showers with north winds of 10 to 15 mph are expected
to persist through Sunday. However, as a ridge of high pressure
to the east weakens Sunday night, the trough may shift back
over the islands, increasing shower activity once again Monday
through the end of the forecast period.

&&

.Marine...
Latest wave heights observed at the PacIOOS buoys are near 8 feet.
Seas are expected to build through Friday as winds increase, with
wave heights potentially reaching around 10 feet. Conditions will
continue to be closely monitored, as surf may reach warning levels
depending on the strength of the winds.

As the trough shifts farther south on Saturday and winds diminish,
seas are forecast to subside below advisory levels and remain
relatively low into the new week.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch
High Surf Advisory remains in effect
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect

&&

$$

TM