American Samoa's Tropical Cyclone Outlook 2026-27

Above-Normal Tropical Cyclone (TC) Activity anticipated for American Samoa in the 2026-26 TC Season Read More >

148
FXZS60 NSTU 020021
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
121 PM SST Sun Nov 1 2026

.Short term...

After a cloudy early morning with light rain showers through
around 9 AM, clouds parted to give a mix of sun and clouds for all
islands of American Samoa. Throughout the morning,
east/southeasterly trade wind speeds aren`t as high as anticipated
but are forecast to increase throughout the rest of the
afternoon.

Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a ridge of high pressure
entering the region and is to remain over the islands on Monday.
More clouds than sun are expected through the day with
east/southeasterly trades around 15 to 20 mph. The risk of
showers reduces to isolated to scattered (20 to 30% chance) in the
form of passing showers throughout this time.

We are monitoring a trough that is currently well to the east of
the American Samoa islands, which is likely to move over the
territory on Tuesday. The risk of showers increases to numerous
showers (60% chance), but flash flooding is not likely.

.Long term...

For Wednesday through the rest of the week, another ridge moves
over the islands. A mix of sun and clouds are forecast with
slightly cooler than average temperatures. Southeasterly trades
are anticipated to remain at 15 to 20 mph with isolated to
scattered passing showers.

By the weekend, more clouds than sun are expected with the risk of
passing showers back to scattered due to the ridge weakening as it
moves away from the territory.

Overall, no severe weather is forecast for the next 7 days. There
is no risk for tropical development during this time.

&&

.Marine...

Lighter than expected trades this morning led to seas building
more slowly than expected. However, this afternoon, the PacIOOS
buoy to the east of Aunu`u shows seas at 7 feet. Seas are
forecast to continue building Monday through late Tuesday with
waves potentially reaching up to 12 feet on Tuesday. Expect the
Small Craft Advisory to continue during this time. A High Surf
Advisory is likely beginning Monday/early Tuesday.

Seas slowly subside starting on Wednesday. Even through 6 to 8
feet with no significant swell are forecast for Thursday into the
upcoming weekend, rough seas are likely with a fresh
east/southeasterly breeze.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect.

&&

$$

LaPlante