El Nino Possible Impacts & What you can do

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FXZS60 NSTU 080100
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
200 PM SST Wed Oct 7 2026

.Short term [tonight through Friday night]...
Persistent ridging of high pressure to the south of American
Samoa will continue to hold an active trough to the north of the
islands while maintaining a trade wind pattern for the territory.
These trade winds will be breezy at up to 25 mph with higher
gusts. Expect brief and shallow passing showers embedded in the
trade wind flow below the stable trade wind inversion (seen in
the 00Z RAOB upper-air sounding).

Therefore, expect southeasterly trade winds up to 25 mph with
higher gusts, and only brief passing showers with no significant
heavy rainfall for the short term forecast period.

.Long term [Saturday through Wednesday]...
Trade winds are projected to slightly increase this weekend,
likely reaching wind advisory threshold of 30 mph with higher
gusts. The trough is projected to slowly drift closer to the
territory, bringing an increase in moisture and increasing the
frequency of trade wind showers by this weekend.

By around Tuesday of next week, the trough is forecast to fully
move over the territory. The trough should remain strong and
active over American Samoa, and may even intensify with embedded
low pressure centers. Widespread showers may be heavy and
persistent at times with the possibility of thunderstorms
beginning Tuesday. Widespread flash flooding may occur from this
rainfall. Landslides will be possible along steep mountainous
terrain. While there is still uncertainty in the exact progression
of the trough, and the associated magnitude and duration of
rainfall, plan now for wet conditions starting as early as next
Tuesday.

&&

.Marine...
The breezy trade winds continue to hold advisory level sea and
surf conditions through the remainder of the week. By the
weekend, already poor conditions worsen further as trade winds
increase into a strong to near-gale breeze. This should push wave
heights well over 10 feet and surf heights near High Surf Warning
threshold. Therefore, mariners and beachgoers should continue to
be aware of poor conditions that are expected to remain for the
foreseeable future.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory
Small Craft Advisory

&&

$$

Barton