Synoptic discussion for American Samoa.

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254
FXZS60 NSTU 150056
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
156 PM SST Sat Nov 14 2026

.Short term...
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...Invest 95P/TD02F, located
approximately 982 miles east northeast of Tutuila, continues to
show signs of organization with a consolidating low level
circulation and persistent deep convection near its center. Latest
satellite analysis and model guidance indicate favorable
environmental conditions for further tropical development. The
system is expected to remain nearly stationary before tracking
west southwestward. Meanwhile, high pressure far to the southeast
will maintain breezy trades and isolated showers tonight through
Sunday. As the pressure gradient strengthens, trades will increase
to strong breeze conditions Sunday night and persist through on
Monday night. Increasing moisture associated with the approaching
disturbance will bring scattered showers on Monday and Monday
night.

.Long term...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...Models generally agree on a west
southwestward track for Invest 95P/TD02F as it approaches the
vicinity of Swains island later in the week. Although current
environmental conditions favor tropical development, increasing
vertical wind shear closer to the main island chain may inhibit
further intensification. Regardless of development, increasing
moisture associated with the disturbance will likely maintain
numerous showers across the territory on Tuesday through Saturday.
Meanwhile, a tight pressure gradient between the disturbance to
the north and the high pressure to the south will maintain strong
trades throughout the forecast period.

&&

.Marine...
Seas of 7 to 9 feet will persist tonight through Sunday under
breezy trades. As trades strengthen on Sunday night, seas will
build 9 to 12 feet and remain hazardous through Saturday. Strong
trades and elevated seas will continue to pose hazardous
conditions for small craft throughout much of the upcoming week.
Additional increases in winds and seas remain possible depending
on the track and intensity of the system.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory remains in effect
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect

&&

$$