El Nino Possible Impacts & What you can do

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FXZS60 NSTU 110107
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
207 PM SST Sat Oct 10 2026

.DISCUSSION...
Upper air observations (RAOB) from this afternoon (11/00Z)
together with the latest satellite imageries and model data show
dry conditions over the area. These dry conditions was anticipated
as the strong trades with higher gusts hold a trough to the north
of the area. Any brief showers passing from time to time is
embedded within the wind flow, with no deep convections. Both the
GFS (American) and EC (European) model data agree on a strong high
pressure system to the south, holding the trough to the north as
it also continues to produce fresh to strong trades for the short
term forecast period.

However, model data also show the trough moving closer to the
territory as the high pressure system drifts further east-
southeast by midweek. Trade winds will still remain breezy as
tight pressure gradients keeps the strong winds over the area. By
late Tuesday into Wednesday, model data show the trough line as an
embedded low pressure system remains just north of the area. This
will likely bring flash flooding conditions over the area. Model
projections continue to hold the low pressure system to the north
of the area as it tracks east-southeast for the rest of the new
week. In summary, expect the threat of strong trade winds and
flash flooding conditions to remain over the area for the long
term forecast period.

&&

.Marine...
Observations of a decrease in trade winds throughout the day has
also eased seas within the last couple of hours. These winds also
align with data of short period waves reported from the PacIOOS
buoys (Aunu`u & King-Poloa). While wave data from the King-Poloa
buoy show heights well below advisory thresholds, wave heights
from the Aunu`u buoy remains elevated. The short wave periods are
a clear indication of wind-driven waves. As model projections hold
breezy conditions for this forecast period, peaking around
midweek, seas are also expected to remain hazardous, especially
for the south to southeast to east facing shores of all islands.
Addtionally, as the aforementioned trough is expected to move
closer to the territory, there is a possibility for thunderstorms
to be in the area. Therefore, expect the threat of rough and chopy
seas, surfs to remain high and dangerous, and a low to moderate
risk of rip currents within the exposed south to southeast to east
facing coastal areas.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory
High Surf Advisory
Small Craft Advisory
Hydrologic Outlook

&&

$$

JTAllen