American Samoa's Tropical Cyclone Outlook 2025-26

Below Normal to Near Normal Tropical Cyclone (TC) Activity anticipated for American Samoa in the 2025-26 TC Season Read More >

613
FXZS60 NSTU 260059
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
159 PM SST Wed Feb 25 2026

.DISCUSSION...
Passing showers with higher gusts throughout the morning hours of
the day continues as open-cell cumuli clouds move across the
islands. These passing showers may have caused minor floodings
around the islands from time to time. These conditions are also
evident on the latest satellite imageries with the ridge remaining
over the area. Upper air observations (RAOB) from this afternoon
(26/00Z) show a conditionally unstable atmospheric profile, also
supporting the conditions aforementioned. However, model data
shows a mid-level trough over the area on Thursday, potentially
enhancing showers for the rest of the short-term forecast period
(through Friday). Moderate northeast winds with higher gusts
during heavy downpours are to remain for tonight through at least
Friday.

Long term model projections show the ridge remaining for the rest
of the forecast period. The ridge will likely keep scattered to
numerous showers, heavy at times, with moderate to fresh
northeast-east winds throughout this period.

There is a low to no chance of any tropical system developing in
or move into the area of responsibility (AOR) for this forecast
period.

&&

.Marine...
Observation of seas remaining calm and serene in the last couple
of days will likely continue for this forecast period (5 days
out). This is reflected on the latest observations from the
PacIOOS buoys (Aunu`u and King-Poloa), reporting seas of 4 to 6
feet. However, model trends show seas slightly building to around
7 feet, possibly advisory levels (8 feet) on late Friday. This may
likely be due to winds picking up to moderate to fresh breeze.
Will continue to monitor conditions as more data becomes
available. Nonetheless, seas will remain favorable for this
forecast period.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

JTAllen