Synoptic discussion for American Samoa.

614
FXZS60 NSTU 090100
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
200 PM SST Sun Nov 8 2026

.DISCUSSION...
Upper air observations (RAOB) from this afternoon (09/00Z)
together with the latest satellite imageries continue to support
fair weather patterns over the area. An inversion at the 800 mb
level with drier conditions aloft, and a strong high pressure
system to the southeast maintaining the fresh southeast breeze,
and likely keeping flash flooding potential at a minimal. Model
data also show another high pressure system further south of New
Zealand merging with the aforementioned high pressure system on
Monday night. This will enhance the southeast winds to a strong
breeze as it continues to hold an active trough to the north.
Thus, expect scattered showers with fresh to strong east-
southeast winds for tonight through at least Wednesday.

By Thursday, as the high pressure system migrates east, model
data are in agreement in moving part of the aforementioned trough
over the islands as an embedded low pressure system materializes
to the northeast of the area. Winds will turn east on Friday
through at least Saturday, as the high pressure system continues
to migrate east. Although models show this scenario, conditions
will continually be monitored as more data becomes available.
However, the trough moving over the area in the second half of the
week will increase flash flooding potential over the islands.
Numerous showers with moderate to fresh east-southeast winds is
expected for the long term forecast period.

There is a low probability for a tropical system to develop or
move within the area of responsibility (300 nm from Tutuila) for
the next 7 days.

&&

.Marine...
Observations from the PacIOOS buoy near Aunu`u continue to show
elevated seas within the area. This phenomena will likely remain
for tonight through the rest of the forecast period. Although seas
are observed to be slightly less than the high surfs thresholds
(10 ft or more), the fresh east-southeast winds are keeping ocean
conditions hazardous. Additionally, the latest model solutions
show winds increasing to a strong breeze with higher gusts by
Tuesday afternoon through the end of the period (Friday). These
strong winds will likely elevate seas further more, thus,
increasing the threat of rough and choppy seas, dangerously high
surfs, and deadly rip currents. In these conditions, precautionary
measures should be taken for your safety. Therefore, advisories
for high surfs and small crafts will remain in effect throughout
the week.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory
Small Craft Advisory

&&

$$

JTAllen