990
FXZS60 NSTU 010057
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
157 PM SST Tue Jun 30 2026

.DISCUSSION...
Mostly cloudy to overcast skies with moderate trades has been
observed throughout the day. However, winds started to increase to
a fresh breeze in the early afternoon hours. This slight increase
in winds also increased the potential for showers across the
islands. This is also supported by the latest satellite
imageries. A trough responsible for widespread showers in the last
12 to 24 hours continues to remain over the area. Although, the
part of the trough directly over Tutuila, Aunu`u and the Manu`a
Islands is not as active as conditions over Swains Islands, models
are showing the trough shifting southward late overnight tonight
into Wednesday, bringing active weather in the area. Models show
the potential for flash flooding conditions to continue through at
least late Thursday into early Friday morning. Thus, the flood
watch will remain through at least this time frame.

Long term model solutions show the aforementioned trough migrating
north and east as the high pressure system to the south continues
to push it further away. When this scenario comes to play, fair
weather patterns will return over the area by late Friday into the
weekend and new week. Thus, expect cloudy with numerous to
widespread showers and moderate to fresh south-southeast winds to
remain over the islands tonight through at least early Friday.
Flash flooding conditions remains. Expect scattered showers with
gentle to moderate trades for the re3st of the forecast period.

&&

.Marine...
Advisories for small crafts and high surfs continue to remain in
effect as combined seas of 7 to 9 feet with periods peaking at 16
seconds long. These observations from the PacIOOS buoys, the
latest satellite ASCAT swaths, and the FNMOC model data, show seas
on a gradual building trend. Model solutions continue to show a
large south swell moving into the area on Wednesday peaking on
Wednesday night and Thursday at 9 to 12 feet. Additionally,
periods expected with this swell will continue to peak at more
than 12 seconds long. Elevated seas are expected to remain through
the rest of the forecast period (5 days). The elevates seas and
long periods also aligns with the moderate to fresh south-
southeast breeze moving across the islands. Thus, the threat of
enhanced seas, dangerous surfs, and strong rip currents remains
for the south facing shores of all islands for this forecast
period.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory
Small Craft Advisory
Flood Watch

&&

$$

JTAllen