Synoptic discussion for American Samoa.

569
FXZS60 NSTU 120050
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
150 PM SST Wed Nov 11 2026

.Short term [tonight through Friday night]...
The pressure gradient between a ridge of high pressure to the
south and lower pressure to the north will continue to generate
breezy southeasterly trade winds of up to 25 mph with higher
gusts throughout the short term forecast period. This ridge of
high pressure is holding a stable trade wind inversion just above
850 mb as seen in this afternoon`s 00Z RAOB upper-air
observation. This inversion will limit the intensity and depth of
any convective activity, keeping showers embedded within the
trade wind flow brief with no persistent heavy rainfall. The
limited rainfall over the short term forecast period will not
serve to help the current Moderate Drought (D1) conditions that
are present for American Samoa according to US Drought Monitor.

After reanalysis, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has
moved the estimated center point of Invest 95P further to the
north. The new low pressure center location according to JTWC is
now around 950 miles to the northeast of Tutuila island. Invest
95P needs to be watched very closely for potential impacts going
forward, but should remain well to the northeast for the short
term (next 48-72 hours).

In conclusion, expect breezy southeasterly trade winds up to 25
mph with higher gusts to persist, rainfall to remain limited at
scattered to numerous brief passing showers, and Invest 95P to
remain well to the northeast throughout the short term forecast
period.

.Long term [Saturday through Wednesday]...
The ridge to the south should maintain the mostly stable trade
wind pattern through the weekend. Changes are likely going
forward though, as Invest 95P will play a critical role in the
forecast going into the new week. Confidence in the progression
of 95P has increased slightly, with most models now depicting the
system deepening into a cyclone to the northeast and then moving
either due westward or west-southwestward, coming closer to the
Samoa island chain. However, the precise timing, intensity, size,
and positioning of the system continue to vastly differ from
model to model and run to run, maintaining a significant amount
of uncertainty in the long term forecast.

The most probable impact associated with Invest 95P for next week
is an increase in wind speeds. The low pressure is expected to
strengthen the pressure gradient over American Samoa even if the
center of the system remains far from the territory. With gusty
trade winds already being in place, wind speeds could increase to
Advisory levels (30 mph with higher gusts) by as early as Monday.
Beyond a slight increase in wind speeds, other impacts are
difficult to determine at this time due to the aforementioned
uncertainties. If more direct tropical cyclone impacts occur
(tropical storm force winds, flash flooding, storm surge, etc.),
the most likely timeline would be Wednesday (Day 7) or later.
Once again, confidence remains low in the potential and timing
for additional impacts at this time. Now is the time for our core
partners and the public to ensure their Hurricane Plan is ready
before a storm occurs.

&&

.Marine...
The fresh to strong trade wind breeze continues to hold wave
heights in the 9 to 12 foot range at PacIOOS Aunu`u buoy. Not
much change is expected throughout the forecast period as trade
winds are expected to hold the wind driven waves at a similar
height. Expect hazardous, choppy wind driven waves near or
exceeding 10 feet throughout the forecast period, high surf for
south through east facing shorelines, and increased risk of
powerful rip currents throughout the forecast period. Mariners
and those in surf prone areas alike should heed caution as High
Surf and Small Craft Advisories should remain in effect
throughout the forecast period.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory
Small Craft Advisory

&&

$$

Barton