American Samoa's Tropical Cyclone Outlook 2025-26

Below Normal to Near Normal Tropical Cyclone (TC) Activity anticipated for American Samoa in the 2025-26 TC Season Read More >

247
FXZS60 NSTU 120049
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
149 PM SST Wed Mar 11 2026

.Short term [tonight through Friday night]...
High pressure to the southeast will continue to hold easterly
trade winds up to 20 mph over the islands through tonight. Partly
cloudy skies with a chance at isolated to scattered passing
showers is expected tonight. Meanwhile, an area of enhanced
rainfall and embedded thunderstorms is observed in latest
satellite imageries around 600 miles east of the territory.
Forecast models indicate that this activity is result of a weak
low to mid-level distubance (trough) that will pass just south of
the territory late week. This disturbance is expected to bring
increased rain chances Thursday through Friday night, especially
during overnight hours when the low-levels of the atmosphere are
more saturated. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.
Widespread flash flooding does not appear likely at this time.
Wind speeds should decrease as the trough passes over the
territory.

.Long term [Saturday through Wednesday]...
By the weekend through the new week, rainfall returns near to
below average with no significant troughs or disturbances
expected. Easterly flow will once again take over, but is
forecast to be weaker than it is currently due to the high
pressure to the southeast weakening and moving out of the area.

&&

.Marine...
The easterly winds combined with a long period north swell will
continue to bring rough seas across American Samoa`s coastal
waters through tonight. A High Surf Advisory was considered for
north facing shores due to the swell`s peak period time (~17
seconds). However, ultimately a High Surf Advisory was not issued
as the swell is only a small portion of the total combined wave
height, with the swell height only around 2 feet. Still, currents
may be stronger than usual at times, especially along northeast
facing shores that are impacted by both the easterly wind waves
and the northerly swell.

Wave heights are forecast to briefly subside below advisory
levels as winds weaken late week. However, by the weekend another
swell, this time out of the south, is expected to again bring
rough seas to the territorial waters. The swell this weekend will
have an increased chance to bring advisory level surf conditions,
having similar period times to the current northerly swell and
being much larger (~6 feet).

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect.

&&

$$

Barton