Wildfire Smoke and Severe Thunderstorms in the East; Monsoon Thunderstorms in the Southwest

Wildfire smoke continues to impact air quality from the Great Lakes region into New England and the Mid-Atlantic today with widespread Air Quality Alerts in effect. Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, this afternoon into the evening. Monsoonal thunderstorms may bring areas of flooding to the Southwest. Read More >

885
FXZS60 NSTU 180103
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
203 PM SST Fri Jul 17 2026

.DISCUSSION...
Observations from the latest upper air sounding (RAOB) this
afternoon (18/00Z) show a stable atmospheric profile over the
area. These conditions refelcts fair weather patterns as a strong
high pressure system to the south continues to produce strong and
gusty winds, holding a trough to the north and away from the
islands. Model data show this trend remaining through at least
Sunday night, keeping cooler than normal temperatures and breezy
east-southeast winds over the area through at least Monday night.
Periods of fast moving showers are also possible from time to
time throughout the short term forecast period. By Tuesday night,
model data shows the aforementioned high pressure system
migrating away from the region as winds begin to decrease to a
gentle flow for the remainder of the forecast period. This will
allow the aforementioned trough to descend over the area,
increasing the potential for showers, and flash flooding

Therefore, expect scattered showers with gusty winds for
tonight through at least Monday. Numerous to widespread shwoers
with a light and gentle breeze for the rest of the forecast
period.

&&

.Marine...
Ocean conditions from the last 12 to 16 hours have gradually build
to warning thresholds. Hence, the issuance of a high surf warning
for all southwest, south, and east facing shorelines. Combined
seas of 10 to 13 feet with long periods peaking at 18 seconds,
enhancing surfs and strong rip currents are observed along the
shorelines. This is evident with surfs reaching the roadway with
ocean debris at some coastal areas. This scenario will likely
remain for tonight and Saturday, subsiding to advisory levels
thereafter. Model data show seas remaining rough through the end
of the forecast period as fresh to strong winds also remains for
this time frame. Therefore, the threat of elevated seas, dangerous
surfs, and deadly rip currents will remain over the coastal areas
through the new week.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Warning
Wind Advisory
Small Craft Advisory

&&

$$

JTAllen