Hot Temperatures, Excessive Rainfall, and Severe Thunderstorms in the Eastern U.S.

Hot temperatures are expected again today along the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and lower Mississippi Valley. Heavy to excessive rainfall from thunderstorms today in parts of the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic regions may bring areas of flooding. Severe thunderstorms pose a risk for damaging wind gusts across the Mid Atlantic region again today. Read More >

464
FXZS60 NSTU 050002
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
102 PM SST Sat Jul 4 2026

.Discussion...
Current satellite imagery shows the majority of the trough, marked
by a broad band of clouds, that has brought recent continuous and
occasionally heavy rainfall across the territory shifting farther
north. A strong high pressure system southwest of American Samoa
is pushing it away from the islands. Over the next few days, much
drier conditions are expected under breezy trade winds as the
ridge associated with the high pressure system dominates
conditions over the forecast area.

However, this drier pattern is not expected to last. The latest
model data indicate the trough will move back across the territory
from late Tuesday through Friday as the aforementioned high
pressure weakens as it moves eastward. An uptick in showers is
expected during these days and the risk for thunderstorms increase
across the area. Furthermore, during this passage, southeast
winds will diminish and shift counter- clockwise, becoming north
to northwest. By the end of the new week, the trough is expected
to weaken as it shifts northward again, away from the territory,
as another high pressure system build far southwest of the
islands.

&&

.Marine...
Latest PacIOOS wave buoys show a continuing downward trend in
seas today, remaining within the 7 to 9 feet range for both Aunuu
and King-Poloa buoys. Although we are seeing subsiding seas, it
is still within the advisory criteria, especially as we are
continuing to see breezy conditions. Hence, we will continue the
advisories for both high surfs and small crafts through at least
tonight.

Latest wave watch III forecast continues to show these heights
diminishing through at least midweek when another south-southwest
swell reaches our forecast area. Also, tradewinds are forecast to
diminish to 10 to 15 knots by Sunday. From the downward trend in
both winds and seas, the advisories for high surfs and small craft
will likely be cancelled by tomorrow (Sunday), earlier than
expected with consideration of reissuance by midweek if the
expected aforementioned swells meet advisory criteria.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory
High Surf Advisory

&&

$$