Areas of Heavy Rainfall and Heat Early This Week

Excessive rainfall may produce locally considerable flash flooding over parts of South Texas, the western Gulf Coast, and lower Mississippi River Valley today into Thursday. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches are expected. Hot temperatures may cause heat illnesses over central and northern California and the Pacific Northwest through Tuesday. Read More >

906
FXZS60 NSTU 151822
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
722 AM SST Mon Jun 15 2026

.Update...
The trough mentioned in the previous forecast discussion has
progressed towards the Samoan Islands quicker than anticipated in
yesterday`s forecasts, with deep convection already observed via
satellite over Upolu and Savai`i. Given this trend, rainfall
chances have been upgraded to numerous showers for today and
widespread showers with a chance of thunderstorms tonight. A
Flood Watch is likely by this afternoon. Otherwise, the long term
forecast remains consistent.

&&

.Previous discussion... /issued 249 PM SST Sun Jun 14 2026/

Short term...
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A developing low to the west of
Fiji will pull the trough up north near the islands on Monday
night. As the trough moves closer, winds will diminish to breezy
flow on Tuesday before becoming gentle northerlies on Tuesday
night. Numerous showers will move across the islands on Monday
night and persist through Tuesday night. Near gale winds will
persist tonight before diminishing to strong flow on Monday and
further diminish to breezy flow on Tuesday.

Long term...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...The low will move south of the islands
and tracks southeast through the weekend. Showers will diminish on
Wednesday night as the trough shift farther south southeast.
Another high pressure to the southwest will again bring trades
across the islands on Thursday night before increasing to breezy
flow on Friday. Moisture are expected to remain north of the
islands while holding scattered showers through the weekend.

Marine...
Dangerous seas will remain over the islands tonight through
Monday. As winds diminish, seas will also subside 9 to 12 feet on
Monday night. Seas will continue to subside 7 to 9 feet on Tuesday
night. With winds diminishing to light flow on Wednesday night,
seas will also subside 5 to 7 feet. No significant swells are
expected to move across the islands through the rest of the week.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

&&

$$