Heavy Rainfall and Severe Thunderstorms in the Midwest and Southwest; Heat Continues in the Southern U.S.

Heavy to excessive rainfall could bring flooding today through Thursday across parts of the central Plains into the Midwest and southern Arizona and New Mexico. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of eastern Nebraska into western Iowa later today into early evening. Heat Advisories remain in place across much of east Texas into the mid-Mississippi Valley today and Tuesday. Read More >

211
FXZS60 NSTU 140113
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
213 PM SST Sun Sep 13 2026

.DISCUSSION...
A combination of the latest model solutions, satellite imageries,
and upper air observations (RAOB) from this afternoon (14/00Z)
shows a surface trough over the area with moist conditions from
the surface level to around 600 mb (~15,000 feet). Model data
show the trough remaining over the area throughout the week as it
weakens and re-strengthens from time to time. This trough is
expected to produce minor to moderate flooding throughout the
islands. Winds are also expected to remain at a gentle to moderate
east winds for tonight through the rest of the short term forecast
period (through Tuesday).

By Wednesday, winds will decrease to a light to gentle flow as a
high pressure system to the south holds the trough over the area.
These winds together with the threat of scattered to numerous
showers will likely remain for the rest of the period.

&&

.Marine...
The anticipated south-southwest swell arrived as models projected
in the last couple of days. This has prompted the issuance of the
high surf and small craft advisories for west to southwest shorelines
and all coastal waters. This is supported by the latest data from
the PacIOOS buoys. Seas of 6 to 8 feet with periods peaking at 18
seconds long has enhanced surfs to around 12 feet. Wave periods
this long will also pose the threat of strong rip currents. Model
data continues to show this swell lingering in the area through at
least midweek. By late Wednesday, seas will subside to more
favorable conditions. Additionally, winds are expected to remain
at a gentle to moderate (10 to 15 knots) flow throughout the
forecast period. Thus, expect the threat of high surfs with strong
rip currents, and rough seas to impact all shorelines and coastal
waters of American Samoa, tonight through at least Wednesday.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory
Small Craft Advisory

&&

$$

JTAllen