Severe Weather and Flooding Threats for the Central U.S.; Fire Weather Concerns for the Western U.S.

Severe weather and flooding threats continue for portions of the central U.S., with impactful flash flooding possible from southern Kansas to southwestern Missouri. Extremely Critical fire weather conditions will develop across the Great Basin and Southwest on Friday, with dry and windy conditions through the weekend. Dangerous heat will increase across the southern and central U.S. this weekend. Read More >

160
FXZS60 NSTU 260027
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
200 PM SST Thu Jun 25 2026

.Discussion...
The absence of the high pressure mentioned in previous forecasts has led
to light winds and cloudy skies today. Expect this pattern to persist
through this evening before southeast trade winds gradually build overnight.

A trough is expected to develop near the Islands over the weekend, though
model solutions differ on the timing of increased rainfall. The GFS model
suggests an uptick in showers during the Friday night-Saturday timeframe,
whereas the ECMWF indicates a stronger high pressure building near New Zealand,
which is expected to keep the trough farther north.

However, model guidance is in agreement that trade winds will continue to
strengthen through the new week. Additionally, the bulk of the trough is expected
to move over the Islands on Monday, potentially bringing in widespread showers
through midweek. Overall, a wet and windy pattern is anticipated for the new week.

&&

.Marine...
A large south swell is currently being observed at the PacIOOS buoys,
with peak periods reaching up to 18 seconds this morning. This observation
prompted the issuance of a high surf advisory for south facing shores, even
though wave heights remain around 5 to 7 feet, below small craft advisory
criteria. However, as wave heights are forecast to build on Friday, a small
craft advisory is expected to be issued as well. Rough ocean conditions
are expected to persist into next week.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory

&&

$$

TM