American Samoa's Tropical Cyclone Outlook 2025-26

Below Normal to Near Normal Tropical Cyclone (TC) Activity anticipated for American Samoa in the 2025-26 TC Season Read More >

822
FXZS60 NSTU 180100
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
200 PM SST Tue Mar 17 2026

.Discussion...
The latest upper-air sounding continues to indicate a dry profile
due to a ridge of high pressure. Although fair weather is evident
on satellite, some instability is also present and is expected to
increase slightly overnight as a mid-level trough moves in the
area. This may lead to an uptick in showers through Wednesday
night. However, the potential for flash flooding remains low, as
rainfall is expected to be brief and passing.

Meanwhile, winds are forecast to trend toward a gentle east
breeze through Wednesday, before increasing to around 10 to 20 mph
for the remainder of the week. Additionally, temperatures in the
90s may cool slightly if showers develop through the day.

By Thursday, a mid-level ridge is expected to build over the area.
This feature typically brings warmer temperatures, which could
keep highs in the 90s. However, temperatures are expected to
remain below heat advisory levels, as winds of 10 to 20 mph are
likely to persist into the the new week.

&&

.Marine...
Latest wave heights observed at the PacIOOS buoys show seas
slightly elevated than forecast, holding between 5 to 7 feet. A
south swell is also observed as peak periods are increasing to
near 13 seconds. Although the swells are forecast to become
stronger tonight through, wave heights are expected to continue
below advisory thresholds. With this pattern, smooth seas over
open waters is likely, while strong rip currents and high surfs
may be observed for south-facing shores. As this set of swells
passes through Thursday night, a north swell may impact north-
facing showers through the end of the week. We will continue to
monitor observations to see how this plays out. In the meantime,
no advisories or warnings are in place.

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None

&&

$$

TM