Extreme Heat and Tropical Storm Bertha Impacts

Dangerous heat will expand from the Gulf Coast into the Southern Plains and Desert Southwest through week's end. Additional extreme heat impacting the Pacific Northwest will shift to the northern Plains by the weekend. Tropical Storm Bertha is expected to continue to impact portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast from south central Louisiana to the upper Texas coast today. Read More >

074
FXZS60 NSTU 230115
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
215 PM SST Wed Jul 22 2026

.Short term...

After some light rainfall in most areas of American Samoa early
this morning, clouds decreased with plenty of sunshine from the
mid-morning to early afternoon hours. A ridge of high pressure
remains over the islands for the rest of the day today through the
early evening hours. If showers develop, no flash flooding is
expected. Winds remain light and variable expect with possible
gusts near showers.

Satellite imagery to the west of the Samoan island chain shows a
trough between Savaii and Fiji. A high pressure system to the
southwest of the trough is pushing the trough towards American
Samoa. By later tonight and tomorrow, this trough is anticipated
to move over the region. This will give us numerous showers (70%
chance) and plenty of clouds over the area. Showers are not
forecast to produce flash flooding, but there may be ponding on
vulnerable roadways. By Thursday evening, the trough is to weaken
as it moves away.

.Long term...

Models show signs of a subtropical jet forming just to the
southwest of American Samoa on Friday through the weekend.
Uncertainty remains on the exact location of the jet and the
formation of rain that would likely come with it. Even if the
trough comes closer to American Samoa, flash flooding is not
expected. However, scattered to numerous rainfall is forecast
before weakening late Sunday and into early next week. A ridge
from the southwest is forecast to move over the territory to bring
rainfall back to below average for most of next week.

&&

.Marine...

Even though winds have decreased to a gentle breeze, seas remain
rough as a strong southerly swell is currently moving through the
American Samoa coastal waters. The PacIOOS buoy to the east of
Aunu`u shows sea heights around 8 feet early this afternoon while
the buoy to the west shows around 7 feet. However, long period
waves are generating high surf mainly along the southern shores,
but includes the southwest and southeast shores in the high surf
advisory. High Surf is expected to remain on Thursday, before
finally easing to at least the lower end of advisory levels late
in the week. A moderate east/southeast breeze is forecast to
develop on Thursday and remain through the weekend.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

A High Surf Advisory remains in effect.
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect.

&&

$$

LaPlante