American Samoa's Tropical Cyclone Outlook 2025-26

Below Normal to Near Normal Tropical Cyclone (TC) Activity anticipated for American Samoa in the 2025-26 TC Season Read More >

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FXZS60 NSTU 100056
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
156 PM SST Fri Jan 9 2026

.Short term [tonight through Sunday night]...
A strong trough is observed on satellite well south of the
territory stretching from Vanuatu, through Tonga, and south of
the Cook Islands. Further north, several weaker troughs are
observed on satellite embedded within the northeasterly flow and
rich equatorial moisture. Northern portions of one of these weak
troughs brought numerous showers over American Samoa and its
coastal waters throughout the morning and early afternoon hours.
As the trough moves out of the area, a decrease in rainfall is
expected this evening through tomorrow. However, a few passing
showers will be possible.

By Saturday night into Sunday, the aforementioned stronger trough
to the south will move closer to American Samoa, increasing the
potential for heavy rainfall and thunderstorms over the
territory. Winds should generally remain out of the northeast,
but any development of heavy rainfall or thunderstorm activity in
the area may lead to gusty and unpredictable winds at times this
weekend.

.Long term [Monday through Friday]...
Forecast confidence on the day to day range decreases
significantly for the long term forecast. However, winds are
generally expected to remain out of the north to northeast,
maintaining rich equatorial moisture over the area. Multiple
small troughs may be embedded within this regime. Therefore, this
pattern is likely to hold above average rainfall through next
week. However, it is too early to determine if and/or when any
threats for flash flooding may develop over the long term period.

&&

.Marine...
Seas are observed in the 5 to 7 foot range at the Aunu`u Buoy
over the past few days. With winds expected to remain light to
moderate throughout the forecast period and no significant swells
anticipated, wave heights should remain at similar levels
throughout the forecast period. Therefore no marine advisories
are expected throughout the week. However, heavy showers and
thunderstorms may briefly elevate seas at times.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None

&&

$$

Barton