Areas of Severe Thunderstorms and Excessive Rainfall Thursday

Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for strong gusts and/or large hail are possible across portions of the northern and central Plains, the Lower Missouri to Lower Ohio Valleys, and across the Mid-Atlantic Thursday afternoon and evening. Excessive rainfall may bring flash and urban flooding over the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. Read More >

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FXZS60 NSTU 090059
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
159 PM SST Wed Jul 8 2026

.Discussion...
A trough over the Samoa Island chain continues to produce
widespread showers across the territory. However, mid to upper
level wind shear has limited deep convection. This is evident
from the light, misty rain experienced throughout most of the
day. However, this afternoon`s upper air sounding indicates that
the shear gradually diminishing as thunderstorms observed
northwest of Savai`i continues to track toward the territory. If
these thunderstorms maintain their intensity, expect heavier
showers and gusty winds tonight.

As the low pressure system to the south continues to track east on
Thursday, expect the associated trough to shift eastward as well.
Numerous showers will gradually diminish to scattered showers by
Thursday night, while a gentle southerly breeze takes over as a
high pressure system builds over New Zealand. This high pressure
system will hold limited showers and southerly winds of 10 to 15
mph through the weekend. By Monday, southeast trade winds will
become established and persist through the remainder of the
forecast period.

&&
.Marine...
Latest wave heights observed at the PacIOOS buoys remain around 5
to 7 feet. However, active thunderstorms to the northwest may
elevate seas later tonight as they move closer to the Islands.
Therefore, the Small Craft Advisory remains in effect.

By tonight, a strong south swell is forecast to move into coastal
waters, elevating surf heights and generating strong rip currents
for south-facing shores. A High Surf Advisory may be warranted
and could remain in effect through Thursday. By the weekend,
calmer ocean conditions are expected as winds and swell subsides.

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch
Small Craft Advisory

&&

$$

TM