Dangerous Fire Conditions in the Southern High Plains; Severe Weather in the Central Plains and Upper Midwest; Late-Season Mountain Snow

Dry and windy conditions will produce dangerous fire weather conditions across the southern High Plains into the Southwest. Severe storms, including very large hail, strong tornadoes, and winds, are expected in the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Heavy late-season snow and record cold temperatures are expected in the northern to central Rockies. Heat is spreading across the eastern U.S.. Read More >

554
FXZS60 NSTU 170054
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
154 PM SST Sat May 16 2026

.Short term...
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...An active trough forming at the
boundary of a strong high pressure system (centered over New
Zealand) will hold inclement weather for the area through Monday
night. A mid to upper level jet stream visible on current sounding
data also adds to the instability over the territory. Model
trends are in agreement for widespread showers and thunderstorm
development continuing through Monday, thus holding the flash
flood watch in effect until then.

Meanwhile, the aforementioned high pressure continues to produce
near-wind advisory level winds from the southeast at 15 to 25 mph;
higher gusts are possible during showers and thunderstorms.
Expect strong winds to persist through Monday before diminishing
and shifting east as the high pressure system starts to descend
south.

.Long term...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...The trough will move further south by
Tuesday afternoon. Expect variable winds up to 10 mph for the
remainder of the forecast period. Isolated to scattered showers
will persist for the long term forecast.

&&
.Marine...
Latest wave heights observed at the Aunu`u PacIOOS are around 8
feet, due to existing trade winds. Expect elevated ocean
conditions to hold through at least Monday, keeping the small
craft and high surf advisory for this duration. As the winds
diminish to a gentle breeze Tuesday, expect seas to fall below
advisory levels and remain fairly calm through the end of the
week. However, a south swell will linger in the area due to a low
to the south.

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch
Small Craft Advisory
High Surf Advisory

&&

$$

TM