Excessive Rainfall and Potential Tropical Cyclone in the South; Severe Thunderstorms in the Midwest

Excessive rainfall may produce locally considerable flash flooding over parts of the northwestern Gulf Coast, lower Mississippi River Valley, and Deep South through Thursday. Potential Tropical Cyclone One is forecast to become a tropical storm (Arthur) as it moves along or just off the northwestern Gulf coast through Wednesday. An outbreak of severe weather is forecast in the Midwest Wednesday. Read More >

868
FXZS60 NSTU 170102
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
202 PM SST Tue Jun 16 2026

.Short term...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...Satellite shows an active trough
to the southwest of the islands associated with a low pressure far
south of Tonga. Also, another active line of convergence to the
east of the Manu`a islands is enhanced by an upper level low. RAOB
from this afternoon depicts a stable profile. The active trough to
the southwest is expected to swing over the islands on Wednesday
and Wednesday night before descending southeast on Thursday. This
movement will increase showers to numerous on Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Winds are expected to diminish to light flow on
Wednesday night as the col moves close to the islands. Another
high pressure to the southwest will again bring gentle trades
across the islands on Thursday night.

.Long term...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...High pressure will strengthen and
increase trades to breezy flow on Friday. A TUTT moving over the
islands will enhance showers on Friday night to Saturday morning.
As the TUTT passes southeast, showers will again become scattered
in the afternoon. Trades are expected to trend down starting
Sunday to gentle flow on Monday. High pressure will hold stable
weather over the islands to start the new week.

&&

.Marine...
Hazardous seas of 9 to 12 feet will subside 7 to 9 feet tonight.
As winds continue to diminish, seas will also drop 5 to 7 feet on
Wednesday night. A high pressure to the southwest will again
generate breezy trades across the area on Friday. This will
slightly increase seas 6 to 8 feet before elevating 9 to 12 feet
on Saturday morning. As the high pressure weakens on Monday with
winds diminishing, seas will again subside 6 to 8 feet and persist
through midweek.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch is canceled.
High Surf Advisory remains in effect
Small craft Advisory remains in effect

&&

$$