Excessive Rainfall Potential for the Southeast; Heat Expands for Center of the Nation; Critical Fire Weather for Pacific Northwest

Flash flooding threatens areas from the Tennessee Valley to the Carolinas as storms repeat along a stalled front. Monsoonal storms may trigger flooding in the Southwest. Dangerous heat expands across the Desert Southwest, Plains, mid-Mississippi Valley and Southern Tier. Critical fire weather for interior Pacific Northwest. Cooler, drier air brings brief relief to the Great Lakes and Northeast. Read More >

800
FXZS60 NSTU 250132
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
232 PM SST Fri Jul 24 2026

.Short term...

A mix of sun and clouds remained over the American Samoa islands
during the morning hours, but showers have popped up in some areas
in the early afternoon. Satellte imagery has shown the majority
of the rainfall assosicated with the trough just to the south and
west of American Samoa.

This trough is forecast to remain mainly stationary through the
weekend. If the trough moves slightly northward, this would create
an uptick of showers. However, if it stays to the south and west,
then scattered showers (40 to 50% chance) is forecast. Even if the
trough moves closer, this rainfall is not expected to cause flash
flooding. The easterly breeze up to 15 mph is to remain through
Saturday before slowly becoming a light and variable wind on
Sunday. Otherwise, temperatures remain near normal.

.Long term...

By Monday, a strong ridge to the southwest of American Samoa is
projected to move closer to the territory. Winds become southeast
on Monday before increasing up to around 25 mph from Tuesday
through the rest of the week. As there is a sharp wind gradient
with the ridge moving into the region on Monday night, the risk of
rainfall is upgraded to numerous for that time. However, cooler
and drier air is expected over American Samoa from Tuesday through
Friday with scattered showers forecast (30% chance) in the
passing form.

&&

.Marine...

Data from the PacIOOS buoys to the east of Aunu`u and to the west
of Tutuila shows seas building once again this morning with a
moderate east/southeasterly breeze. Southerly swell periods
remain high enough to cause high surf along the southern coasts of
American Samoa. By Saturday evening, seas are forecast to begin
slowly easing and finally fall to at least close to below Small
Craft Advisory levels for Sunday through early Monday as winds
become light and variable. However, another round of southerly
swell is to move through the American Samoa coastal waters
throughout the day on Monday and to remain through the middle of
the week. Southeasterly winds increase to a fresh breeze on
Tuesday through late in the week.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

A High Surf Advisory remains in effect through Saturday.
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect.

&&

$$

LaPlante