499
FXZS60 NSTU 060123
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
223 PM SST Sun Apr 5 2026

.DISCUSSION...
The latest satellite imageries show open cumuli clouds moving over
the territory throughout the day. These clouds tend to move
across the mountain peaks as they build, slowly forming into
towering cumuli clouds before moving westward as it produces
scattered to numerous showers from time to time. Upper air
observations (RAOB) from this afternoon (06/00Z) supports these
unstable conditions. Model data show this weather pattern
remaining over the area tonight through the rest of the forecast
period. Additionally, model solutions show an elongated mid-level
high pressure system lingering over the area throughout this
forecast period. This feature will help in holding Tropical
Cyclone (TC) Vaianu away from the territory as it migrates
southeast then further south of the area. TC Vaianu is expected to
be at its closest point to American Samoa by midweek, yet still
far away to not impact the islands directly.

Therefore, expect isolated to scattered showers with light to
gentle east winds for tonight through the rest of the forecast
period. TC Vaianu (31P) is not expected to impact American Samoa
for the next couple of days. However, due to uncertainties in its
track, intensity and model performance in the long term, a slight
change in its track can potentially shift the whole system on a
different track. Will continue to monitor conditions as more data
becomes available.

&&

.Marine...
Rough seas and moderately high surfs continue to pound the south
to west facing shorelines of all islands. These conditions
resulted in surfs carrying seawater and beach debris on the roads
and nearby coastal areas. Data from the PacIOOS buoys, especially
the King-Poloa buoy show seas of 8 to 10 feet with peak periods
reaching more than 15 seconds long. This combination of values
translate to surfs of 10 to 13 feet high with strong rip currents,
deviating from what models previously projected before its
arrival. However, model data shows a downward trend starting early
Monday morning and remaining through at least Thursday. By
Thursday night into the weekend, as TC Vaianu (31P) to the west of
the Fiji Islands migrates southeast, and at its closest point to
American Samoa, a large south-southwest swell will be generated
and move into the area. This will again elevate seas and surfs and
generate possible stronger rip currents. Model data projects
winds to remain light and gentle from the east throughout the
forecast period. The threat of rough seas, high surfs and strong
rip currents remains over the coastal waters for tonight through
Monday.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory
Small Craft Advisory

&&

$$

JTAllen