Areas of Fire Weather and Severe Thunderstorms on Friday

Critical fire weather is expected Friday across the Northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and southern High Plains due to gusty winds and low humidity. Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, wind damage and tornadoes will be possible Friday and Saturday across parts of the central Plains. Read More >

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FXZS60 NSTU 150129
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
229 PM SST Thu May 14 2026

.Discussion...
Latest satellite data shows a trough just south of the Samoa
Island chain shifting north. The upper air sounding from this
afternoon depicts an unstable trend as the trough draws near.
Model trends show the leading edge of the trough reaching the
Islands by Friday afternoon at the earliest, or Saturday morning
at the latest. Expect numerous showers Friday night becoming
widespread Saturday morning into Sunday. Models suggest increased
precipitation totals for the Saturday to Sunday timeframe, which
could increase the risk for flash flooding. Will continue to
monitor satellite data to see how the trough develops within the
next 24 hours.

Behind the trough is a strong high pressure system building east
to southeast trades of 15 to 25 mph. These winds are expected to
reach the Islands Saturday afternoon, which could be gusty during
showers. Inclement weather is likely for the weekend into Monday.

By Monday night, the trough will moves south, and gradually
weaken winds and showers for the rest of the forecast period.

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.Marine...
Wave heights observed at the Aunu`u PacIOOS buoy are around 6 to 8
feet. A dominant south-southwest swell is evident at the King-
Poloa buoy. This swell is forecast to pass through the area
through the new week. Additionally, breezy trades will likely
hold seas in advisory levels through Monday. Expect rough ocean
conditions and high surf through at least Monday, and elevated
surf to remain through midweek due to the swell.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory

&&

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