El Nino Possible Impacts & What you can do

El Nino Possible Impacts & What you can do - English & Samoan Read More >

260
FXZS60 NSTU 070102
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
202 PM SST Tue Oct 6 2026

.Discussion...
A strong high pressure system to the south of the Samoa Island
chain will continue to drive the weather pattern for the week.
East to southeast tradewinds will prevail, with showers embedded
within the tradewind flow possible. However, the current upper
air sounding from this afternoon suggests that a tradewind
inversion will cap any significant development. Model guidance
shows a similar weather profile remaining through Saturday, with
winds reaching advisory thresholds Thursday.

However, a trough to the north is expected to bring inclement
weather by Sunday as pressure gradients between the high and the
trough tighten over the territory. This means winds would continue
within advisory threshold (25 mph-35 mph) with higher gusts, and
the risk for flash flooding could increase with the active trough.
These conditions are expected to peak Tuesday night through
Thursday. Although model skill tends to diminish beyond 3 days,
previous model runs continue to develop active weather for the new
week with several low pressure systems moving over the territory.
We will continue to monitor model trends to see how conditions
develop.

&&
.Marine...
Wave heights observed at the Aunu`u PacIOOS buoy remain around 7
to 9 feet with peak periods near 15 seconds. Tradewinds continue
to produce hazardous seas, while peak periods indicate a strong
south swell. This prompted the High Surf Advisory this morning,
which is now paired with the Small Craft Advisory. Expect these
conditions to continue through midweek, becoming increasingly
elevated Thursday as winds reach advisory thresholds. Model data
shows an increasing trend continuing into the new week with the
incoming active weather.

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory
Small Craft Advisory

&&

$$

TM