210
FXZS60 NSTU 040104
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
204 PM SST Fri Apr 3 2026

.Synopsis...
An active trough is observed to the north and west of the
American Samoa Islands, over Tokelau, Wallis and Futuna, and
Fiji. In the far northwest corner of this trough is a low
pressure circulation, denoted Invest 91P by JTWC, which is
currently positioned well to the northwest of Fiji. Meanwhile,
over American Samoa, an area of high pressure in the mid-levels
of the atmosphere is holding much drier conditions.

&&

.Short term [tonight through Sunday night]...
Despite a moisture-rich unstable profile observed in this
afternoon`s 0Z RAOB upper-air sounding, sinking air from the mid-
level high pressure has kept showers limited to isolated
throughout the day. Invest 91P is forecast to move southward and
should pull the trough south with it. This is forecast to bring
the trough closer to the territory tonight through tomorrow
morning. This will briefly increase rainfall chances to numerous
showers, but the mid-level high pressure should keep the heaviest
rainfall west and the flash flooding threat low. By Saturday
afternoon, the trough will move away to the south and west of the
area. the mid-level high pressure will then bring stable weather
conditions for the remainder of the weekend. Easterly winds will
decrease to near or below 10 mph tonight and remain light through
the weekend.

.Long term [Monday through Friday]...
Mid-level high pressure will continue to bring mostly fair
weather conditions throughout the long term forecast period.
Invest 91P will past southwest of Fiji, potentially as a TC, by
early next week before turning to the east. By mid to late week
Invest 91P will turn eastward and pass well to the south of
American Samoa. As this system passes to the south, it will turn
winds out of the north to northwest over the territory. These
winds should remain light (near or under 10 mph).

&&

.Marine...
Seas have begun to slowly build at Aunu`u and Poloa buoys but
still currently remain at only around 6 feet. However, with a
strong south swell moving in tonight, seas should continue
building in the 6 to 8 foot range this afternoon, peaking at 7 to
9 feet after midnight tonight through Saturday night. A Small
Craft Advisory has preemptively been issued for seas building 6
to 8 feet this afternoon. With periods expected to exceed 15
seconds as the swell arrives, a High Surf Advisory will likely be
needed for south facing shores later tonight.

With light to gentle winds and no additional swells expected
beyond the weekend, seas will begin to subside by Sunday. Seas
should then be below advisory levels Monday through the remainder
of the forecast period.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory now in effect

&&

$$

Barton