Severe Thunderstorms and Flooding from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes; Record Heat in the East

Widely scattered severe thunderstorms may produce damaging winds, hail, and flash flooding from the southern Plains into the lower Great Lakes. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will persist across portions of the Southwest and Southern High Plains due to gusty winds and dry conditions. An early-season heatwave will challenge temperature records across the eastern U.S.. Read More >

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FXZS60 NSTU 200019
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
119 PM SST Tue May 19 2026

.Discussion...
Latest satellite data indicates unstable conditions diminishing
as the trough that brought considerable flash flooding yesterday
moves further southeast. Fair weather has taken over and will
persist through Thursday. This means limited showers and light
winds are possible for this duration.

By Friday, a strong high pressure system over New Zealand will
extend towards the Samoa Island chain. This feature will shift
winds south and may strengthen it up to 20 mph through Saturday.
Additionally, south winds could usher in cool air from the south.
As the high moves east on Sunday, this will allow for a weak
trough to the northeast to move in the area Sunday night. Expect
an uptick in showers Sunday night through Tuesday until the trough
exits the region thereafter. However, the risk for flash flooding
from this trough is low at this time.

&&

.Marine...
Surf and wind have subsided in the area, which prompted a
cancellation for the high surf advisory. However, as waves
continue between 6 to 8 feet, a small craft advisory will hold
until tonight. Expect ideal ocean conditions Wednesday through
Thursday, before another swell moves in from the south over the
weekend.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory

&&

$$

TM