El Nino Possible Impacts & What you can do

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FXZS60 NSTU 060100
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
200 PM SST Mon Oct 5 2026

.DISCUSSION...
An active trough just north of the territory continues to move
closer to the area. This may increase the potential for showers in
the next 12 to 24 hours. Also, due to east winds weakening to a
gentle breeze throughout the day, this allowed the trough to move
even closer. However, model suggests that winds are expected to
increase again to a fresh breeze by tonight and further increasing
by midweek. The high pressure to the south will migrate east as
it continues to produce breezy conditions with embedded showers
throughout the forecast period.

However, model data suggests that by the end of the forecast
period (Sunday to Monday), the aforementioned trough will move
closer to the territory as it remains active. A low pressure
system embedded within the trough will develop and strengthen. The
threat of flash flooding and stronger winds are expected for this
time frame. Due to poor model performance more than three days,
conditions will be monitored as more data becomes available.

&&

.Marine...
Favorable conditions over the coastal waters will remain for
tonight. By Tuesday, east winds will increase to a fresh breeze
and will likely peak to a strong breexe by midweek. With these
strong winds, seas will likely become choppy and hazardous for
this forecast period. Additionally, thunderstorms inching closer
from the north has the potential to elevate seas and produce
gustier winds nearby. Thus, expect ocean conditions to become
hazardous and dangerous over the coastal waters as the week
progresses. In the meantime, the small craft advisory remains in
effect.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory

&&

$$

JTAllen