365
FXZS60 NSTU 130103
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
203 PM SST Thu Mar 12 2026

.Short term...

Satellite imagery from this morning and early afternoon shows a
mix of sun and clouds over American Samoa. To the east/southeast,
clouds producing showers are seen along a low pressure system
with some isolated lightning detected. The forecast for this
circulation is to move south of the islands, which is projected to
bring the more consistent rainfall to south while having an
uptick of passing showers over the territory. Therefore, scattered
showers increases to numerous showers (60 to 70% chance) for our
forecast after midnight and through the first half of the day
Friday. Flash flooding is not expected. Winds are to slightly
shift from east to east/northeast with winds up to around 10 mph,
but gusts may occur near showers.

The weekend`s forecast for rainfall over American Samoa is below
average. If showers occur, it is expected to be in the passing
form. Otherwise, a mix of sun and clouds are expected during the
day with east winds around 10 to 15 mph.

.Long term...

A weak ridge of high pressure centered to the southeast for the
beginning to the middle of next week is forecast to continue
bringing drier than normal rainfall over the territory. Easterlies
continue with showers in the passing form, if showers occur.
Temperatures, however, are forecast to be above normal reaching up
to around 90 degrees during the day.

There is no risk of tropical development over American Samoa for
the next 7 days.

&&

.Marine...

Choppy seas have occurred earlier in the week throughout the
American Samoa coastal waters due to a fresh easterly breeze.
However, winds decreased to a gentle to moderate easterly breeze
today, which caused seas to ease as seen on the PacIOOS buoys to
the east of Aunu`u and to the west of Tutuila. Winds are expected
to decrease slightly for the rest of the night tonight and
tomorrow as a the majority of the precipitation from a trough
moves to the south of the islands. Therefore, seas are forecast to
ease to 4 to 6 feet throughout the evening and Friday.

Winds increase to a moderate breeze for this weekend. Also,
southerly swell is forecast to move through the American Samoa
coastal waters. This will cause seas to build to around 6 to 8
feet. Seas may not be as choppy with longer periods, but surf is
anticipated to build to near High Surf Advisory levels. For next
week, the easterly breeze is to decrease back to a gentle to
moderate breeze with no major swell. This will cause seas to
around 4 to 6 feet.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE

&&

$$

LaPlante