September 2014 Monthly Climate Summary

...SEPTEMBER 2014 MONTHLY CLIMATE SUMMARY...

September brought warmer than normal temperatures and a mix of above and below normal precipitation totals to the Mid-South. For many areas, September would likely have witnessed below normal precipitation totals if not for the heavy amounts of rain received on September 11^th. It was during this flash flood event that Memphis picked up over four inches of its 4.75 inches of rainfall for the month.

Memphis was the warmest site during September with its monthly average of 76.2 degrees, which was a one degree departure above normal. Currently for 2014 Memphis is 2.1 degrees below normal, thanks mostly to a cooler spring and summer. Tupelo had an average temperature this month of 75.5 degrees, or 1.4 degrees warmer than normal. Tupelo is currently 1.9 degrees below normal for the year. Jonesboro had an average temperature of 73.0 degrees in September, 1.1 degrees above the September normal, while currently being the site with the coolest departure from normal for the year at 2.4 degrees below normal. Jackson was the coolest site this month by over one degree with an average temperature of 71.6 degrees, only 0.2 degrees above normal. Meanwhile Jackson is currently 2.2 degrees cooler than normal for the year. Memphis and Jonesboro recorded the warmest temperature this month with 95 degrees, while Jackson recorded the coolest temperature with 45 degrees. That’s a fifty degree spread across the month, which aids in identifying September as a transition month in the climate across the region.

As previously mentioned, much of the precipitation that fell in September occurred during the heavy rainfall event on September 11^th. The effects of this event were primarily felt in Shelby and DeSoto Counties, where water rose to cover roadways and even flooded several homes. Jackson narrowly beat out Memphis for the most precipitation during the month with 4.83 inches, 1.45 inches above the September normal. Jackson has received 48.51 inches of precipitation so far this year, 9.26 inches above normal. Memphis received 4.75 inches of rain in September, 1.66 inches above normal for the month, while the Bluff City is right at 10.00 inches above normal for the year so far. Tupelo recorded 3.23 inches of rain this month, which is actually 0.22 inches below normal for the month. Tupelo is the only site with a drier than normal precipitation total for 2014, having received 0.74 inches of precipitation below normal. Jonesboro was the driest site for the month, only receiving 1.84 inches of rain, which is 1.22 inches below normal. Jonesboro is currently 1.35 inches of precipitation ahead for the year, having received 35.52 inches in 2014.

TEMPERATURE DATA:

 Memphis    Jackson   Jonesboro   Tupelo

Average Temperature (MONTH)  :   76.2       71.6      73.0     75.5

Normal Avg. Temp (MONTH)     :   75.2       71.4      71.9      74.1

Departure from Normal (MONTH):    1.0        0.2        1.1       1.4

Average Temperature (YEAR)   :   64.0       60.7      60.8      63.5

Normal Avg. Temp (YEAR)      :   66.1       62.9      63.2      65.4

Departure from Normal (YEAR) :   -2.1       -2.2      -2.4      -1.9

Maximum Temperature          :   95.0       92.0      95.0      94.0

Minimum Temperature          :   54.0       45.0      52.0      50.0        

PRECIPITATION DATA:

                                Memphis   Jackson   Jonesboro   Tupelo

Total Precipitation (MONTH)  :    4.75      4.83      1.84      3.23

Normal Precipitation (MONTH) :    3.09      3.38      3.06      3.44

Departure from Normal (MONTH):    1.66      1.45      -1.22     -0.21

Total Precipitation (YEAR)   :   48.47    48.51      35.52     39.17

Normal Precipitation (YEAR)  :   38.47    39.25      34.17     39.91

Departure from Normal (YEAR) :   10.00      9.26      1.35     -0.74

Percent of Normal            :    126%      124%      104%       98%

Climate Outlook:

For October the forecast for north Mississippi is for enhanced odds of experiencing above normal temperatures, while the forecast for the rest of the region is for equal chances of experiencing above, near, or below normal temperatures. Extreme northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel are forecast to have enhanced odds of experiencing above normal precipitation totals for the month of October, while the rest of the Mid-South is again only forecast as an equal chance. An equal chance forecast simply means that there is no clear climate indicator to help determine whether temperatures or precipitation will be above, near, or below normal.

For the months of October, November, and December collectively, the Climate Prediction Center is forecasting parts of west Tennessee and extreme northeast Mississippi to have enhanced odds of experiencing above normal temperatures, while the rest of the area is forecast as equal chances. For precipitation the entire area is forecast as equal chance of experiencing above, near, and below normal precipitation totals.

MAYE