...OCTOBER 2016 MID-SOUTH CLIMATE SUMMARY...

October 2016 was the warmest month of October on record at Memphis, a significant feat for a site with a temperature record extending back to 1875. The month was the third warmest month of October on record at the other three official climate sites, speaking to the degree of abnormality in October temperatures around the Mid-South. Temperature departures from normal were staggering, with all four sites between 6.5 and 7.5 degrees warmer than the October normal for each location. Jonesboro was 7.5 degrees warmer than its monthly normal, with an average temperature for the month of 68.7 degrees. Jonesboro is currently 2.6 degrees warmer than normal for the year to date. Jackson had a monthly departure from normal of 6.9 degrees, with an average October temperature of 67.4 degrees, while currently 2.3 degrees warmer than normal for 2016. Memphis had an average October temperature of 70.7 degrees, 6.6 degrees above normal. For 2016 to date the site is 2.8 degrees warmer than normal, which actually places 2016 through the end of October as the second warmest such period on record, just slightly behind 2012. Finally, Tupelo was 6.5 degrees warmer than normal during October with its average monthly temperature of 69.5 degrees, and remains 2.5 degrees warmer than normal for the year to date. With only two months in the year, it’s a fair assumption that 2016 will not only be warmer than normal, but it could also be one of the warmest years on record for the region.

In addition to record warm temperatures, the region has been struggling with a shortage of rainfall over the past several months. This is a trend that unfortunately was not broken during October, with all four official sites at least 2.50” of rain drier than normal. As a result, drought conditions have persisted and worsened, with some locales of the Mid-South highlighted by the US Drought Monitor product as being in D4 Exceptional Drought, the most severe level of categorization by the product. Northeast Mississippi has suffered the greatest under the dry conditions, evident during October by Tupelo’s monthly precipitation total of only 0.44”, some 3.68” drier than normal. For the year to date Tupelo remains 7.31” of precipitation drier than normal. Jackson is also behind on precipitation for the year to date by 6.29”; for October the site was 2.60” of rain drier than normal. Jonesboro only received 1.64” of rain during October, which was 6.29” below the monthly normal. However, the site remains 6.17” of precipitation wetter than normal for the year to date, with northeast Arkansas the region of the Mid-South least affected by drought conditions. Memphis received 1.22” of rain during October, 2.76” below normal. Memphis is the wettest of the four sites for the year to date, having recorded 51.70” of precipitation, or 9.25” above normal.

The climate data for October 2016 are as follows:

TEMPERATURE DATA:

                                                          Memphis    Jackson   Jonesboro   Tupelo

Average Temperature (MONTH)  :        70.7          67.4          68.7          69.5

Normal Avg. Temp (MONTH)     :          64.1          60.5         61.2           63.0

Departure from Normal (MONTH):       6.6           6.9           7.5             6.5

Average Temperature (YEAR)   :          68.7         64.9         65.6           67.7

Normal Avg. Temp (YEAR)      :            65.9         62.6         63.0           65.2

Departure from Normal (YEAR) :         2.8          2.3           2.6             2.5

Maximum Temperature          :              92.0        92.0          90.0          91.0

Minimum Temperature          :               44.0        36.0          40.0          40.0

PRECIPITATION DATA:

                                                       Memphis   Jackson   Jonesboro   Tupelo

Total Precipitation (MONTH)  :             1.22       1.17           1.64          0.44

Normal Precipitation (MONTH) :          3.98       3.77           4.26          4.12

Departure from Normal (MONTH):   -2.76     -2.60          -2.62         -3.68

Total Precipitation (YEAR)   :             51.70     36.73         44.60         36.72

Normal Precipitation (YEAR)  :          42.45     43.02         38.43         44.03

Departure from Normal (YEAR) :     9.25      -6.29           6.17          -7.31

Percent of Normal            :                122%        85%         116%          83%

October Notables:

Memphis- #1 Warmest October on Record at 70.7 degrees

Jackson- #3 Warmest October on Record at 67.4 degrees

Jonesboro- #3 Warmest October on Record at 68.7 degrees

Tupelo- #3 Warmest October on Record at 69.5 degrees

Tupelo- #7 Driest October on Record with 0.44”

Climate Outlook:

With the area in desperate need for precipitation to alleviate drought conditions, the climate outlooks provided by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) become crucial to effective drought impact mitigation efforts. Unfortunately, the CPC outlooks for both the one and three month periods do not offer hope to the dry situation. The one month outlook for November has the region in an area of enhanced odds of above normal temperatures and also an area of enhanced odds of below normal precipitation. Similarly, the three month outlook for the months of November, December, and January collectively highlights the region in enhanced odds of above normal temperatures as well as enhanced odds of below normal precipitation.

-MAYE