October 2015 Mid-South Climate Summary

...OCTOBER 2015 MID-SOUTH CLIMATE SUMMARY...

October was warm and dry around the region when compared to normal. Memphis was the warmest site and also had the greatest departure from normal at 66.3 degrees and 2.2 degrees warmer than normal, respectively. Also, Memphis recorded the warmest temperature of all the official sites, hitting 93 degrees earlier in the month. For 2015 to date, Memphis is only a tenth of a degree cooler than normal. Tupelo had an average temperature of 64.3 degrees, 1.3 degrees warmer than normal. The site is currently 0.4 degrees cooler than normal for the year. Jonesboro recorded a monthly average temperature that was only 0.3 degrees warmer than normal, the smallest departure of the four sites, while currently sitting 1.6 degrees cooler than normal for the year to date, the largest departure of the four sites. Jackson was the coolest site of the month, with an average temperature that was only 0.7 degrees warmer than normal. Currently for the year, Jackson is 0.4 degrees cooler than normal with an average temperature of 62.2 degrees. Jackson recorded the coolest temperature of all four sites this month with 32 degrees.

Tupelo received the most precipitation during October, with 4.09 inches recorded, only 0.03 inches below normal. Tupelo has received 130% of its year to date normal precipitation, currently at 13.04 inches wetter than normal for the year. Jonesboro picked up 3.34 inches of rain during the month, only 0.92 inches drier than normal. For the year to date Jonesboro is wetter than normal by 7.51 inches. Memphis only received 2.44 inches of rain during October, a 1.54 inch departure below normal. Memphis currently holds a rainfall deficit for the year, sitting at 4.72 inches drier than normal for the year to date. Jackson was the driest site this month and had the greatest departure from normal with 2.02 inches and 1.75 inches below normal, respectively. Jackson is currently 7.47 inches drier than normal for 2015, having received only 83% of its year to date precipitation total. The following are the data for October 2015:

TEMPERATURE DATA:

                               Memphis    Jackson   Jonesboro   Tupelo

Average Temperature (MONTH)  :   66.3       61.2      61.5      64.3

Normal Avg. Temp (MONTH)     :   64.1       60.5      61.2      63.0

Departure from Normal (MONTH):    2.2        0.7        0.3       1.3

Average Temperature (YEAR)   :   65.8       62.2      61.4      64.8

Normal Avg. Temp (YEAR)      :   65.9       62.6      63.0      65.2

Departure from Normal (YEAR) :   -0.1       -0.4      -1.6      -0.4

Maximum Temperature          :   93.0       89.0      90.0      91.0

Minimum Temperature          :   44.0       32.0      36.0      35.0  

PRECIPITATION DATA:

                                Memphis   Jackson   Jonesboro   Tupelo

Total Precipitation (MONTH)  :    2.44      2.02      3.34      4.09

Normal Precipitation (MONTH) :    3.98      3.77      4.26      4.12

Departure from Normal (MONTH):   -1.54    -1.75      -0.92     -0.03

Total Precipitation (YEAR)   :   37.73    35.55      45.94     57.07

Normal Precipitation (YEAR)  :   42.45    43.02      38.43     44.03

Departure from Normal (YEAR) :   -4.72    -7.47      7.51     13.04

Percent of Normal            :     89%       83%      120%      130%

Climate Outlook:

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlook for the month of November has enhanced odds for warmer than normal temperatures. Likewise, the precipitation prediction is also enhanced odds for wetter than normal conditions during November. The three month outlook, encompassing the months of November, December, and January collectively has equal chances of above, near, or below normal temperatures and precipitation amounts. An equal chances forecast simply means there is no clear climate signal to give enough information to produce a confident prediction. Despite the ongoing strong El Nino event, there are other factors which also affect our climate. These factors occur on shorter time scales than El Nino, leaving their potential effects on our region unable to be determined more than a couple of weeks in advance.

The Winter 2015/16 outlook for the Mid-South, encompassing the months of December, January, and February collectively, is now available on our website.

MAYE