March 2014 Monthly Climate Summary

...MARCH 2014 MONTHLY CLIMATE SUMMARY...

Overall, March was both cooler and wetter than normal around the Mid-South, with all four official reporting sites ending the month with an average temperature that was over four degrees below normal, and precipitation totals for three of the four sites that were above normal. Tupelo was barely the warmest official site this month with an average temperature of 49.9 degrees, a 4.1 degree departure below the normal March average of 54.0 degrees. Memphis had an average temperature of 49.5 degrees, 4.5 degrees below the normal of 54.0 degrees. Jackson experienced its seventh coolest March on record with an average temperature of 45.6 degrees, 5.4 degrees below the normal of 51.0 degrees. Jonesboro was the coolest official site this month, and also had the greatest departure from normal, with an average temperature of 44.3 degrees, a 5.9 degree departure from the normal of 50.2 degrees. In addition to being the coolest official site this month, Jonesboro also experienced its sixth coolest March on record.

Memphis was the wettest of the official sites this month with a precipitation total of 7.38 inches, 2.22 inches above the normal precipitation total for March of 5.16 inches. Jackson received 5.84 inches of precipitation, 1.09 inches above the normal of 4.75 inches. Jonesboro recorded 5.01 inches of precipitation, only 0.51 inches above the normal March precipitation total of 4.50 inches. Tupelo is currently experiencing a D1 drought, and also experienced its tenth driest March on record with only 3.08 inches of precipitation. This was 1.74 inches below the normal of 4.82 inches.

All sites recorded snowfall this month, with Jonesboro leading the way with 3.2 inches of snowfall in March. This was 2.5 inches above the normal snowfall for March of 0.7 inches. Jackson received 0.8 inches of snowfall, 0.4 inches above the normal of 0.4 inches. Memphis received 0.5 inches of snowfall this month, 0.1 inches above the normal of 0.4 inches. Tupelo reported the least amount of snowfall for the month with only a trace, which was 0.3 inches below the normal of 0.3 inches.

TEMPERATURE DATA:

 Memphis    Jackson   Jonesboro   Tupelo

Average Temperature (MONTH)  :   49.5       45.6      44.3      49.9

Normal Avg. Temp (MONTH)     :   54.0       51.0      50.2      54.0

Departure from Normal (MONTH):   -4.5       -5.4      -5.9      -4.1

Average Temperature (YEAR)   :   42.2       38.8      37.0      42.6

Normal Avg. Temp (YEAR)      :   46.9       43.8      43.1      47.2

Departure from Normal (YEAR) :   -4.7       -5.0      -6.1      -4.6  

Maximum Temperature          :   77.0       78.0      74.0      77.0

Minimum Temperature          :   15.0       14.0      10.0      22.0

PRECIPITATION DATA:

                                Memphis   Jackson   Jonesboro   Tupelo

Total Precipitation (MONTH)  :    7.38      5.84      5.01      3.08

Normal Precipitation (MONTH) :    5.16      4.75      4.50      4.82

Departure from Normal (MONTH):    2.22      1.09      0.51     -1.74

Total Precipitation (YEAR)   :   15.50    14.00      9.72      9.18

Normal Precipitation (YEAR)  :   13.53     12.99      11.65     14.26

Departure from Normal (YEAR) :    1.97      1.01      -1.93     -5.08

SNOWFALL DATA:

                                Memphis   Jackson   Jonesboro   Tupelo

Total Snowfall (MONTH)       :    0.5       0.8        3.2         T

Normal Snowfall (MONTH)      :    0.4       0.4        0.7       0.3

Departure from Normal (MONTH):    0.1       0.4        2.5      -0.3

Greatest Snow Depth (MONTH)  :      1         1          3         T

Top 10 Coolest Months of March

Jackson                                         Jonesboro

1     37.9  1960                                1     38.8  1960

2     42.4  1965                                2     42.4  1915

3     43.3  1969                                3     43.2  1965

4     44.4  2013                                4     43.8  1906

5     44.7  1958                                5     44.0  1896

6     45.3  1996                                6     44.3  2014

7     45.5  2014                                7     44.6  1958

8     45.8  2001                                8     44.9  2013

9     45.9  1999                                9     45.4  1978

10    46.2  1962                                10    45.5  1924

Top 10 Driest Months of March

Tupelo

1     1.80  1966

2     1.85  2005

3     1.88  1967

4     2.13  1985

5     2.40  1987

6     2.84  2003

7     2.96  1974

8     2.97  2007

9     3.01  1954

10    3.08  2014

Climate Outlook:

For the month of April, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has predicted a 33 percent chance of above normal temperatures, a 33 chance of near normal temperatures, and a 33 percent chance of below normal temperatures for all four official reporting sites. The CPC has predicted a 40 percent chance of above normal precipitation during the month of April for Memphis, Jackson, and Jonesboro, while also predicting a 33 percent chance of near normal precipitation and a 27 percent chance of below normal precipitation for the same sites. It is predicted that Tupelo will have a 35 percent chance of above normal precipitation for the month of April, while also having a 33 percent chance of near normal precipitation, and a 32 percent chance of below normal precipitation. Given that Tupelo is currently in a D1 drought and has experienced below normal precipitation totals since September 2013, it would be very beneficial to have a near normal or above normal precipitation total for the month of April.

The CPC also issues a three month outlook, in which all four official sites have been predicted to have equal chances at above, near, or below normal precipitation totals. This means there is no strong climate signal at this time to indicate which way the precipitation totals may trend. This makes it difficult to see where Tupelo’s precipitation may be over the next three months in order to get the relief needed from the drought.

For the months of April, May, and June as a whole (AMJ), Memphis has a 36 percent chance of an above normal average temperature which would be greater than 72.5 degrees, a 35 percent chance of an average temperature that is near normal or between 71 and 72.5 degrees, and a 29 percent chance of a below normal average temperature or lower than 71 degrees.

For AMJ, Jackson has the same chances as Memphis, albeit with slightly different temperatures. Jackson has a 36 percent chance of an average temperature that is greater than 68.6 degrees, a 35 percent chance of an average temperature between 67.1 and 68.6 degrees, and a 29 percent chance of the average temperature being lower than 67.1 degrees.

Jonesboro has a 37 percent chance of an average temperature that is above normal or greater than 69.1 degrees for AMJ, a 34 percent chance of a near normal average temperature that is between 67.5 and 69.1 degrees, and a 29 percent chance of a below normal average temperature which would be lower than 67.5 degrees.

Tupelo has a 37 percent chance of an above normal average temperature, or one that is greater than 71.5 degrees, during AMJ. Tupelo also has a 34 percent chance of a near normal average temperature of 70.1 to 71.5 degrees, and a 29 percent chance of a below normal average temperature lower than 70.1 degrees.

MAYE

March 2014 Precipitation Graphics