June 2012 Monthly Climate Summary

          June 2012 was a continuation of the abnormally dry conditions across the Mid-South. However, temperatures for the month were near normal. This is due to the cool temperatures that were observed to start the month. The cool start was too much to overcome for the recent blistering hot days to produce a well above normal month. For the year, 2012 is still on track to become the warmest years ever for the Mid-South. The lead is not as large due to the cool start to June. Each climate site lost around 1 degree from their lead for the warmest year. June 2012 was not in the top 10 driest months for the Mid-South either. However, the area was still below normal for precipitation, further aggravating the drought problems for the region. All 4 major climate sites have not received rain since June 11th. Memphis, Jackson, and Jonesboro are all more than 10 inches of rain below normal for the year. Tupelo is only 6.64 inches below normal for the year but the dry trend continues. Here is the climate data that tells the story:           

Temperature data:

                                                  Memphis          Jackson            Jonesboro            Tupelo

Average Temperature (June):        80.2                 75.8                   78.1                   78.0

Normal Avg. Temp (June):            79.6                 76.2                   77.8                   78.1

Departure from Normal (June):     +0.6                  -0.4                   +0.3                   -0.1

Average Temperature (Year):         64.1                 60.6                   61.8                   63.1

Normal Avg. Temp (Year):            59.2                 56.1                   56.0                   58.8

Departure from Normal (Year):     +4.9                +4.5                   +5.8                   +4.3

Precipitation data:

                                                     Memphis          Jackson            Jonesboro           Tupelo

Total precipitation (June):              1.38                 3.02                   2.19                   1.41

Normal Precipitation (June):          3.63                 4.84                   3.75                   4.52

Departure from Normal (June):     -2.25               -1.82                  -1.56                  -3.29

Total precipitation (Year):            14.70               15.94                 14.74                  22.48

Normal Precipitation (Year):         27.91              28.38                 25.03                  29.12

Departure from Normal (Year):    -13.21            -12.44                -10.29                  -6.64

The following tables show the rank, average temperatures, year of occurence, and its departure from the 1981-2010 set of normals.

TOP 10 WARMEST YEARS THROUGH JUNE 30:

The following tables show the rank, precipitation, year of occurence, and its departure from the 1981-2010 set of normals.

TOP 10 DRIEST YEARS THROUGH JUNE 30:

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS:

            For June 2012, the intensifying drought was the main story. Extreme drought conditions have developed across northern portions of the Mid-South. Any crops that are not irrigated are suffering and producing no to low yield. With the very hot temperatures and little rainfall in the forecast, drought conditions will continue to deteriorate.

            There were only a few days with severe weather for the month of June. On the evening of June 3rd, thunderstorms developed across Northeast Arkansas and moved to the southeast. Additional thunderstorms moved across the region during the early morning hours of June 4th. There were numerous reports of wind damage and a few hail reports. Hail up to the size of softballs was reported in Smithville, Arkansas. This is the largest hail report so far for the year in the Mid-South. On June 11th, a large bow echo moved across the Mid-South from the northwest to the southeast. Numerous reports of trees down, roofs blown off, power lines down, and trucks blown over were received. Again, there were only a few hail reports and the largest report was up to the size of golfballs in Cordova, Tennessee. Based on the reports received, the winds with this system were between 60 mph and 80 mph. A few reports of flash flooding were received due to some high rain rates with the storms. This was the last significant rainfall observed across the Mid-South.

CLIMATE OUTLOOK:

            The Climate Prediction Center, or CPC, continues to predict warmer than normal temperatures through the month of July in the one month outlook. The CPC has also forecast the warmer than normal temperatures to continue for the Mid-South in the 3 Month Temperature Outlook for July, August, and September. The precipitation is still forecast as having equal chances of above or below normal amounts over the next 3 months. Northeastern Mississippi has been classified as “abnormally dry” by the Drought Monitor. North-Central Mississippi and Southwestern Tennessee have been classified as in a moderate drought. Northwestern Mississippi, Eastern Arkansas, and Northwestern Tennessee and along the Mississippi River into Memphis have been classified as in a severe drought. Finally, Northeastern Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and extreme Northwestern Tennessee have been classified as in an extreme drought. With no significant rains over the past 3 weeks and no significant rains forecast at the present time, drought conditions will continue to get worse, much worse. Burn bans have already been declared for a several counties across the Mid-South. With the dry weather to continue, many more counties will likely follow suite. Water restrictions will become possible as water sources dwindle in the hot and dry weather. The drought will prove disastrous to any agriculture that is not irrigated. In order to overcome the drought conditions over the Mid-South, a slow moving tropical system or a northwest flow event with several thunderstorm complexes with heavy rains is needed.

RRH