...JULY 2016 MID-SOUTH CLIMATE SUMMARY...

Climatologically, July is the warmest month of the year for the Mid-South, and July 2016 proved exceptionally warm for the region. Temperatures were widely above average for the month, ranging from 2.0 to 2.5 degrees warmer at each of the four official climate sites. In addition to the warmth, the month was dry for much of the region. Only Memphis had an above average monthly precipitation total, with the other three sites all below average.

Of course Memphis registered the warmest average temperature for July with 85.0 degrees, a 2.3 degree departure above normal. Jackson, who had an average monthly temperature of 81.9 degrees, actually carried the greatest monthly departure of the four sites at 2.4 degrees warmer than normal. Jonesboro’s monthly average temperate of 83.0 degrees resulted in a monthly departure of 2.2 degrees above normal, while Tupelo finished the month right at 2.0 degrees warmer than normal with a monthly average temperature of 83.4 degrees. Memphis hit 100 degrees for the first time since August 2014 this month, a feat the three other sites failed to achieve. Jackson recorded the coolest temperature of the sites with a low of 66.0 degrees, while Memphis has not fallen below 70.0 degrees since early June. Following several months of above normal monthly temperatures, the entire region now stands between 1.0 and 2.0 degrees warmer than normal for the year to date.

Memphis was by far the wettest official climate site for July, receiving just over 8.00” of rain, or 3.43” of rain above the monthly normal. Memphis was the only site to have a wetter than normal month, with the other three sites drier than normal. Tupelo received only 2.34” of rain for the month, which was 1.56” below normal. Similarly, Jackson finished July with 2.54” of rain, or 1.95” short of normal. Jonesboro was the site closest to normal, picking up 2.85” of rain during July, only 0.69” drier than normal. For the year to date Memphis is excessively wetter than normal by nearly 12.00”, having received 44.28” of precipitation so far during 2016, or 136% of normal. Jonesboro is also above normal for the year to date by 7.25”, having received 35.82” of precipitation, or 125% of normal. Tupelo and Jackson are both drier than normal for the year to date by 2.52” and 2.79”, respectively. Some areas of the Mid-South have been quite dry over the past few months, resulting in the development of drought conditions. Currently Extreme Drought conditions are highlighted across portions of North Mississippi by the US Drought Monitor product, with Severe Drought conditions highlighted for much of the rest of North Mississippi. Otherwise, the rest of the region is generally abnormally dry with decent crop health dependent on a mixture of irrigation and luck of the draw when it comes to afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

The climate data for July are as follows:

TEMPERATURE DATA:

                               Memphis    Jackson   Jonesboro   Tupelo

Average Temperature (MONTH)  :   85.0       81.9      83.0      83.4

Normal Avg. Temp (MONTH)     :   82.7       79.5      80.8      81.4

Departure from Normal (MONTH):    2.3        2.4        2.2       2.0

Average Temperature (YEAR)   :   64.5       60.8      61.3      63.6

Normal Avg. Temp (YEAR)      :   62.5       59.4      59.5      62.0

Departure from Normal (YEAR) :    2.0        1.4        1.8       1.6

Maximum Temperature          :  100.0       99.0      99.0      98.0

Minimum Temperature          :   72.0       66.0      69.0      67.0

PRECIPITATION DATA:

                                Memphis   Jackson   Jonesboro   Tupelo

Total Precipitation (MONTH)  :   8.02       2.54      2.85      2.34

Normal Precipitation (MONTH) :   4.59       4.49      3.54      3.90

Departure from Normal (MONTH):   3.43     -1.95      -0.69     -1.56

Total Precipitation (YEAR)   :  44.28     30.08      35.82     30.50

Normal Precipitation (YEAR)  :  32.50     32.87      28.57     33.02

Departure from Normal (YEAR) :  11.78     -2.79      7.25     -2.52

Percent of Normal            :   136%        92%      125%       92%

Notables:

Memphis

#8 Warmest July on Record (tied with 1982) at 85.0 degrees

#8 Wettest July on Record with 8.02”

Climate Outlook:

The latest one month and three month outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) do not offer much relief from the above normal temperatures or drier conditions. The one month outlook for the month of August highlights the entire region in an area of enhanced odds of above normal temperatures. Unfortunately for the areas suffering drought conditions, the one month precipitation has most of north Mississippi in more favorable odds for below normal precipitation, while predicting equal chances of above, near, or below normal precipitation totals for the rest of the region. Similarly, the three month outlook encompassing the months of August, September, and October collectively highlights favorable odds for above normal temperatures for the entire region. The three month precipitation outlook also has favorable odds of below normal precipitation totals for north Mississippi and portions of west Tennessee and eastern Arkansas. Meanwhile, equal chances for above, near, or below normal precipitation totals exist in the three month outlook for extreme northwest Tennessee, extreme northeast Arkansas, and the Missouri Bootheel.

MAYE