Thunderstorms, some severe, may produce heavy to excessive rainfall and isolated flooding over portions of the Southern Plains through Saturday. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will spread east into the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Dry conditions, combined with gusty winds will continue to support an elevated fire weather threat in the Desert Southwest. Read More >
July 2012 was a continuation of the abnormally warm and dry
conditions for the most part...but there was some relief to
portions of the Mid-South. July 2012 was also one of the warmer
months of July on record. This is surprising due to the cool
temperatures that were observed during the middle of the month. If
it was not for the cool stretch of temperatures...July of 2012
could have been one of the warmest months of July on record. For
the year...2012 is still on track to become the warmest year ever
for the Mid-South. For the year...all the major climate sites are
4 to 6 degrees above normal. July 2012 was not in the top 10
driest months for the major climate sites in the Mid-South.
However...the area is still below normal for precipitation for the
year. Memphis and Jonesboro are still more than 10 inches of rain
below normal for the year. Tupelo and Jackson saw some relief from
the drought in the form of above normal precipitation for the
month. Here is the climate data that tells the story:
TEMPERATURE DATA:
MEMPHIS JACKSON JONESBORO TUPELO
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (JULY): 85.3 82.1 85.7 83.6
NORMAL AVG. TEMP (JULY): 82.7 79.5 80.8 81.4
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL (JULY): 2.6 2.6 4.9 2.2
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (YEAR): 67.2 63.8 65.3 65.9
NORMAL AVG. TEMP (YEAR): 62.5 59.4 59.5 62.0
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL (YEAR): 4.7 4.4 5.8 3.9
PRECIPITATION DATA:
MEMPHIS JACKSON JONESBORO TUPELO
TOTAL PRECIPITATION (JULY): 2.26 7.03 0.86 5.11
NORMAL PRECIPITATION (JULY): 4.59 4.49 3.54 3.90
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL (JULY): -2.33 2.54 -2.68 1.21
TOTAL PRECIPITATION (YEAR): 16.96 22.97 15.60 22.48
NORMAL PRECIPITATION (YEAR): 32.50 32.87 28.57 29.12
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL (YEAR): -15.54 -9.90 -12.97 -6.64
The following tables show the rank...average temperatures...year of
occurrence...and its departure from the 1981-2010 set of normals.
Top 10 warmest July months on record:
MEMPHIS JACKSON
RNK AVG YR DEP RNK AVG YR DEP
1 88.8 1980 6.1 1 85.2 1980 5.7
2 86.5 1986 3.8 2 85.1 1954 5.6
2 86.5 1954 3.8 3 83.3 1993 3.8
4 86.3 1993 3.6 4 83.2 1952 3.7
5 86.0 2011 3.3 5 83.1 1969 3.6
6 85.4 1930 2.7 6 83.0 1986 3.5
7 85.3 2012 2.6 7 82.5 1966 3.0
8 85.0 1982 2.3 8 82.2 1977 2.7
9 84.9 1934 2.2 8 82.2 1983 2.7
9 84.9 1969 2.2 10 82.1 2010 2.6
JONESBORO TUPELO
RNK AVG YR DEP RNK AVG YR DEP
1 87.7 1901 6.9 1 85.2 1954 3.8
2 87.0 1980 6.2 2 84.9 1943 3.5
3 86.8 1930 6.0 3 84.6 1986 3.2
4 86.2 1934 5.4 4 84.4 2006 3.0
5 85.8 1954 5.0 5 84.1 1952 2.7
6 85.7 2012 4.9 5 84.1 1980 2.7
7 85.5 1986 4.7 7 83.8 2011 2.4
8 85.2 2011 4.4 7 83.8 1956 2.4
8 84.8 1969 4.0 9 83.6 2012 2.2
10 84.7 1993 3.9 9 83.6 1934 2.2
Top 10 warmest years through July 31:
MEMPHIS JACKSON
RNK AVG YR DEP RNK AVG YR DEP
1 67.2 2012 4.9 1 63.8 2012 5.6
2 64.7 2006 2.8 2 62.8 1952 3.4
3 64.6 1921 2.3 3 62.7 1953 3.2
3 64.6 1880 2.2 4 62.3 1954 2.9
5 64.4 1998 2.1 5 62.1 1990 2.5
5 64.4 1981 2.0 6 61.9 1991 2.4
7 64.3 1986 1.9 7 61.8 1998 2.3
7 64.3 1999 1.9 7 61.8 1949 2.2
7 64.3 1925 1.9 9 61.3 1986 2.0
7 64.3 2005 1.9 9 61.3 1972 1.9
JONESBORO TUPELO
RNK AVG YR DEP RNK AVG YRDEP
1 65.3 2012 5.8 1 66.1 2012 4.3
2 64.8 1921 5.5 2 65.2 1938 3.5
3 64.2 1901 4.4 3 64.9 2006 2.8
4 63.9 1925 4.2 4 64.5 1949 2.7
5 63.6 1932 4.1 5 64.4 1953 2.7
6 63.1 1954 3.8 6 64.1 1944 2.4
7 63.0 1986 3.4 6 64.1 1932 2.1
8 62.8 1998 3.2 8 64.0 1954 2.1
8 62.4 1911 3.2 9 63.9 1991 2.0
10 62.2 1908 3.1 10 63.8 1990 1.9
The following tables show the rank...precipitation...year of
occurrence...and its departure from the 1981-2010 set of normals.
Top 10 driest years through July 31:
MEMPHIS JACKSON
RNK PRE YR DEP RNK PRE YR DEP
1 14.72 1901 -17.78 1 14.94 2007 -17.93
2 16.20 1925 -16.30 2 20.22 1969 -12.65
3 16.90 1914 -15.60 3 22.54 1958 -10.33
4 16.96 2012 -15.54 4 22.70 1986 -10.17
5 17.00 1941 -15.50 5 22.97 2012 -9.90
6 17.87 1934 -14.63 6 23.45 1952 -9.42
7 18.11 1931 -14.39 7 23.73 1987 -9.14
8 18.40 2007 -14.10 8 24.12 1985 -8.75
9 18.85 1936 -13.65 9 24.25 1977 -8.62
10 19.51 1986 -12.99 10 25.69 1960 -6.97
JONESBORO TUPELO
RNK PRE YR DEP RNK PRE YR DEP
1 15.02 1941 -13.55 1 17.05 1988 -15.97
2 15.60 2012 -12.97 2 19.18 1943 -13.84
3 17.55 1943 -11.02 3 19.85 1986 -13.17
4 17.62 1925 -10.95 4 20.87 1958 -12.15
5 18.03 1901 -10.54 5 21.06 1941 -11.96
6 19.19 1980 -9.38 6 22.21 1942 -10.81
7 19.46 1971 -9.11 7 22.57 1992 -10.45
8 19.86 1977 -8.71 8 23.01 2007 -10.01
9 20.60 1940 -7.97 9 23.31 1930 -9.71
10 21.26 1996 -7.31 10 23.60 1987 -9.42
Significant Weather Events:
For July 2012...the drought continued to be the main story across
the region. Exceptional drought conditions have developed across
northwestern portions of the Mid-South. Any crops that are not
irrigated are suffering and producing no to low yield. With the
very hot temperatures and little rainfall in the forecast...
drought conditions will continue to deteriorate. There were only a
few days with severe weather for the month of July. No big severe
weather outbreaks occurred across the Mid-South this month. The
days with the most wind reports and a couple hail reports were on
July 5th...6th and 7th. Other than that...there were only a few
wind reports on July 1st...18th through the 20th...the 26th and
the 30th. The majority of the wind reports received were trees
down. There were some reports of damage to roofs and blown out
windows but these were very isolated instances. The low levels of
severe weather for the year has been common across the United
States. 2012 was off to a fast beginning to start the year for severe
weather...but has since been quiet. The last major outbreak of
tornadoes was a tornado outbreak in Kansas...Nebraska and Oklahoma
in mid-April. There have been some higher end wind events recently
but overall 2012 has been a quiet severe weather year.
Climate Outlook:
The Climate Prediction Center...or CPC...continues to predict warmer
than normal temperatures through the month of August in the one
month outlook. The CPC has also forecast the warmer than normal
temperatures to continue for the Mid-South in the 3 month
temperature outlook for August...September and October. The
precipitation is forecast to be below normal for Northeast
Arkansas...the Missouri Bootheel and far Northwest Tennessee in
the one month precipitation outlook. The precipitation is still
forecast as having equal chances of above or below normal amounts
over the next 3 months for the entire region. Northeastern Mississippi
has been classified as abnormally dry to moderate drought by the
Drought Monitor. North-Central Mississippi and Southwestern
Tennessee have been classified as in a severe drought. Northwestern
Mississippi...Eastern Arkansas and Western Tennessee along the
Mississippi River...including the Memphis metro area...have been
classified as in an extreme drought. Finally...Northeastern
Arkansas...the Missouri Bootheel...and extreme Northwestern
Tennessee have been classified as in an exceptional drought. Some
rainfall for the month of July has helped across portions of West
Tennessee and Northeast Mississippi. However...no relief has come to the
northwest portions of the region. Disasters have been declared in
several counties across the Mid-South. Drought conditions will
continue to get worse across Northeast Arkansas...the Missouri
Bootheel and extreme Northwest Tennessee as the below normal
precipitation is forecast to continue. Water restrictions are possible
as water sources dwindle in the hot and dry weather. The drought
will prove disastrous to any agriculture that is not irrigated. In
order to overcome the drought conditions over the Mid-South...a
slow moving tropical system or a northwest flow event with several
thunderstorm complexes with heavy rains is needed.
RRH
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