...JANUARY 2015 MONTHLY CLIMATE SUMMARY...
January was a dry month with temperatures just slightly below normal. Memphis was the warmest official site with an average temperature of 41.0 degrees, only 0.2 degrees below normal. Tupelo recorded the warmest temperature of any official site with 68.0 degrees, and had an average temperature for the month of 40.8 degrees, which was 0.9 degrees below normal. Jackson recorded the coolest temperature of the month with 4.0 degrees, and had an average temperature for January of 37.7 degrees, 0.5 degrees below normal. Jonesboro had the coolest average temperature and the greatest departure below normal of the official sites with 36.5 degrees and 1.0 degree, respectively.
The current US Drought Monitor paints most of west Tennessee, east Arkansas, the Missouri boot heel, and parts of northwest Mississippi in either D0 or D1 drought conditions. D0 conditions signify abnormally dry conditions, while areas under D1 conditions are experiencing a moderate drought. This is evident in the precipitation totals for the month of January, and also for the past several months. In fact, Memphis experienced its 9th driest January on record this month, while Jackson had its 2nd driest on record. Tupelo is the only official site not in D0 or D1 drought conditions, receiving 4.24 inches of precipitation during January, only 0.24 inches below normal, and making it the wettest official site for the month. Jackson had the lowest precipitation total and largest departure below normal with 0.74 inches and 3.33 inches, respectively. Jonesboro received 1.50 inches of precipitation for the month, which was 1.93 inches below normal, while Memphis only picked up 1.30 inches of precipitation in January, 2.68 inches below normal. While all sites except Jonesboro finished 2014 with above normal precipitation totals for the year, a look at the past several months will show below normal precipitation totals. The current Drought Outlook highlights the aforementioned regions of the Mid-South as areas where drought is anticipated to persist or intensify through the end of April. All sites except Memphis picked up a trace of snowfall in January, which was as much as 2.3 inches below the January normal.
The January climate data from the four official sites across the Mid-South are as follows:
TEMPERATURE DATA:
Memphis Jackson Jonesboro Tupelo
Average Temperature (MONTH) : 41.0 37.7 36.5 40.8
Normal Avg. Temp (MONTH) : 41.2 38.2 37.5 41.7
Departure from Normal (MONTH): -0.2 -0.5 -1.0 -0.9
Maximum Temperature : 65.0 65.0 64.0 68.0
Minimum Temperature : 9.0 4.0 8.0 8.0
PRECIPITATION DATA:
Memphis Jackson Jonesboro Tupelo
Total Precipitation (MONTH) : 1.30 0.74 1.50 4.24
Normal Precipitation (MONTH) : 3.98 4.07 3.43 4.48
Departure from Normal (MONTH): -2.68 -3.33 -1.93 -0.24
Total Snowfall (MONTH) : 0.0 T T T
Normal Snowfall (MONTH) : 1.9 2.3 2.2 0.9
Departure from Normal (MONTH): -1.9 -2.3 -2.2 -0.9
Greatest Snow Depth (MONTH) : 0 0 0 0
Winter 2015 Update:
The midpoint of January also marked the midpoint of meteorological winter, which extends from the first of December through the end of February. A quick examination of the data from December and January shows temperatures are currently above normal at this point in the winter by around a degree. Having already discussed the current drought conditions in portions of the Mid-South, it should come as no surprise to find all sites with below normal precipitation totals at this point in the winter. Memphis leads this deficit at 5.82 inches below normal, while Tupelo is only 1.44 inches below normal. The winter 2015 climate data through the end of January from the four official sites across the Mid-South are as follows:
Memphis Jackson Jonesboro Tupelo
December Avg Temperature : 46.2 43.6 42.6 46.7
January Avg Temperature : 41.0 37.7 36.5 40.8
Winter Avg Temperature : 43.6 40.7 39.6 43.8
Winter to Date Normal : 42.4 39.5 38.5 42.9
Departure from Normal : 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.9
Memphis Jackson Jonesboro Tupelo
December Precipitation : 2.60 3.08 2.79 5.08
January Precipitation : 1.30 0.74 1.50 4.24
Total Precipitation : 3.90 3.82 4.29 9.32
Winter to Date Normal : 9.72 9.42 8.20 10.76
Departure from Normal : -5.82 -5.60 -3.91 -1.44
Climate Outlook:
With moderate drought conditions present in portions of the region, there is added importance on the climate outlook for the next few months, particularly in terms of precipitation. Unfortunately, the precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) for both the month of February and the next three months is for equal chances for above, near, and below normal totals. This means there is currently no clear climate signal to indicate which side of normal the precipitation totals may end up on. However, for temperatures, the CPC has predicted slightly enhanced odds for below normal temperatures for much of west Tennessee and north Mississippi during the month of February, with the rest of the region having an equal chance. Slightly enhanced odds for below normal temperatures are also predicted for the collective three month period containing February, March, and April for north Mississippi and portions of east Arkansas. For the short term, the CPC has predicted near normal temperatures to begin the month, with enhanced odds of below normal temperatures to impact the entire region near the middle of February.
Speaking of the CPC, how did their forecasts for January play out? The forecast was for an equal chance of above normal, near normal, or below normal temperatures. The data show temperatures were slightly below normal. The forecast for precipitation was a complete bust, with the CPC predicting enhanced odds of above normal precipitation totals, or a wetter than normal January. In reality, the month was abnormally dry with moderate drought conditions present in some locales.
MAYE
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