April 2015 Mid-South Climate Summary

...APRIL 2015 MID-SOUTH CLIMATE SUMMARY...

April, normally the most active month of the year for severe weather around the Mid-South, was relatively quiet this year. While there were a few rounds of severe thunderstorms that moved through over the month, no tornadoes were recorded, and only two tornado warnings were issued across the entire region. Despite cooler temperatures during the second half of the month, average temperatures for April were above normal at all four official sites thanks to the warmer than normal temperatures during the first couple weeks of the month. Precipitation totals varied around the region, with Memphis coming in drier, while the other three sites were just slightly to significantly wetter than normal.

Memphis was the warmest site of the month, with an average temperature of 65.2 degrees, 2.3 degrees warmer than normal. Despite this, Memphis is still 2.1 degrees cooler than normal for 2015 to date. Tupelo had an average temperature of 64.5 degrees, which resulted in a 2.4 degree departure above normal, the greatest of all four sites. Tupelo currently has the smallest departure from normal of the four sites for the year to date, at just 1.8 degrees below normal. Jackson recorded the warmest temperature of all four sites, with 87 degrees, which occurred earlier in the month. Jackson’s April average temperature was 61.8 degrees, a 1.8 degree departure above normal for the month, while currently the site is at 2.4 degrees below normal for the year to date. Jonesboro was the coolest site of the month with an average temperature of 60.5 degrees, only 0.6 degrees above normal. Jonesboro is also the coolest site so far for the year and has the greatest departure below normal with 43.8 degrees and 3.5 degrees, respectively.

Precipitation totals varied around the region during the month, with Tupelo being the wettest official site with nearly 8 inches, and Memphis as the driest with only 3 inches. In fact, Tupelo received 7.74 inches of rain during the month, 2.96 inches above normal. Currently for the year, Tupelo is 4.28 inches of precipitation above normal, the most of any site. Jonesboro received 5.82 inches of precipitation this month, 0.80 inches above normal, while currently the site is at 1.30 inches above normal for the year. Jackson measured 4.92 inches of rain in April, only 0.06 inches above normal. Memphis was the driest site of the month with only 3.07 inches of precipitation, 2.43 inches below normal. Memphis and Jackson both have a precipitation deficit for the year to date at 4.83 inches and 1.96 inches below normal, respectively. Despite this deficit, reports from area farmers throughout the month indicated a saturated ground and standing water in some fields, which acted to inhibit planting in many locations.

The April climate data from the four official climate sites across the Mid-South are as follows:

TEMPERATURE DATA:

 Memphis    Jackson   Jonesboro   Tupelo

Average Temperature (MONTH)  :   65.2       61.8      60.5      64.5

Normal Avg. Temp (MONTH)     :   62.9       60.0      59.9      62.1

Departure from Normal (MONTH):    2.3        1.8       0.6       2.4

Average Temperature (YEAR)   :   48.8       45.5      43.8      49.1

Normal Avg. Temp (YEAR)      :   50.9       47.9      47.3      50.9

Departure from Normal (YEAR) :   -2.1       -2.4      -3.5      -1.8

Maximum Temperature          :   85.0       87.0      82.0      85.0

Minimum Temperature          :   44.0       33.0      38.0      38.0

PRECIPITATION DATA:

                                Memphis   Jackson   Jonesboro   Tupelo

Total Precipitation (MONTH)  :    3.07      4.92      5.82      7.74

Normal Precipitation (MONTH) :    5.50      4.86      5.02      4.78

Departure from Normal (MONTH):   -2.43      0.06      0.80      2.96

Total Precipitation (YEAR)   :   14.20    15.89      17.97     23.32

Normal Precipitation (YEAR)  :   19.03    17.85      16.67     19.04

Departure from Normal (YEAR) :   -4.83    -1.96       1.30      4.28

Percent of Normal            :     75%       89%      108%      122%

Climate Outlook:

The month of May is the final of meteorological spring, and provides a transition from the more comfortable temperatures of mid-spring to the warm temperatures of early summer. High temperatures during the month normally range from the mid to upper 70s early in the month to the mid-80s by late in the month. Conversely, low temperatures range from the mid-50s in early May to the mid-60s by late May. Normal precipitation totals for the month range from 4.50 inches to near 6.00 inches among the official sites.

With those ‘normal’ values in mind, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has forecast equal chances of above, near, or below normal temperatures and precipitation for the month of May. This indicates the lack of a clear climate signal to provide a confident forecast. Similarly, the three month outlook encompassing the months of May, June, and July collectively is also for equal chances. A continuing factor in our climate that is expected to remain so throughout May and into the summer is El Niño. Currently a weak El Niño is ongoing, but models indicate some strengthening is possible throughout the summer. Local climate studies have shown that the stronger an El Niño event grows, the greater the cooling effect on our local climate (but remaining within one degree of normal). This suggests the possibility for slightly cooler than normal temperatures as we head into the summer months, should the strengthening occur.

MAYE