Light to moderate snow will continue into Saturday over the Great Lakes, Central Appalachians, and Northeast. This weekend into next week, a series of atmospheric rivers will bring gusty winds, periods of heavy rain, and mountain snow to northern California and the Pacific Northwest. Colder temperatures are in store for the weekend from the Great Lakes to East Coast. Read More >
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To determine the relative risk of spring flooding, numerous factors are considered including snow cover, soil moisture, and current river conditions. A significant snow cover with high water content can increase the chances of flooding once warmer weather melts the snow. Elevated soil moisture conditions reduce the amount of rainfall that is soaked up by the ground and increase the amount of water that then runs off into area streams. Above average river levels reduce the river rise required to reach flood stage, while below average river levels would require an increased amount of river rise to reach flood stage.
Here is a general overview of spring flood risk factors across northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana river basins.
| Risk Factor | Has effect on... | Current Condition | Effect on Flood Risk |
| Fall/Winter River Levels |
Space in river for additional streamflow. | Near Average | No effect |
| Fall/Winter Soil Moisture |
Space in soil for additional infiltration. | Below Average to Near Average | Decrease/No effect |
| Winter Precipitation | Snow cover, the amount of water available for spring melt. | Near Average | No effect |
| Winter Temperatures |
Frost depth, the possibility that infiltration could be blocked by frozen ground. | Above Average | Decrease |
| Spring Precipitation |
Amount of water headed to area rivers. | - | - |
| Spring Temperatures | Rate of melt for snow cover. | - | - |
Valid March 14, 2024.
Modeled snow cover across area river basins was 0 inches in all areas.
Valid March 14, 2024. Click here for the latest snow cover information.
Modeled soil moisture values across the area were generally near average to above average.
Frost depth is 0 inches across area river basins.
Valid March 14, 2024. Click here for the latest soil moisture information from the Climate Prediction Center.
River streamflow across the area is generally near average.
River ice spotters, river gauges, and satellite imagery indicate that no river ice exists on area rivers.
Valid March 14, 2024. Graphics update daily. Click here for the latest streamflow conditions from the USGS. Click here for the latest river ice spotter reports.
The long term (next couple months) outlook from the Climate Prediction Center indicates above average temperatures likely over the first several weeks of March. There is a slight signal for above average precipitation during this period.
Although snow cover, soil moisture, and recent river levels can provide some indication of the relative risk of spring flooding, any weather system that produces heavy rainfall could cause flooding. Spring flood outlooks are not able to assess the risk of flooding due to heavy rainfall more than a week or so in advance.
Relative flood risk for river forecast locations can be viewed on the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) page for our area.
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