Fresh Snow and Temperature Outlook Ahead of Christmas Day

If you are looking for fresh snow by Christmas morning or are curious about potential travel disruptions, the best chances for at least 1" of new snowfall early this week exist across the mountainous West, Great Lakes, and Northeast. Otherwise, temperatures this last full week of December will average above normal for much of the lower 48 states. Read More >

How to use the following tools for assessing risk of drought impacts to area rivers.

HEFS

HEFS is a raw-model based system showing a range of river forecasts from dozens of computer models. This product is intended to illustrate the confidence or uncertainty in river forecasts. If you know a particular river stage value or river streamflow value of concern, look at the blue shaded areas in the forecast section of the HEFS plot. Determine if any of the blue shading includes your stage/streamflow of concern. The darker blue shaded areas illustrate where there is a higher probability for future river stages and the middle of the forecasts, and the lighter shaded areas indicate the model runs at the upper and lower ends with a lower probability. If the shaded area is narrower, there is generally more confidence in the future river stages or streamflows. Because HEFS is based upon raw model output, it should be used with caution because no human review or quality control of the information has occurred. Contact our office with questions about interpretation of the data.

For more information, see.

PQPF

PQPF is a system showing a range of river forecasts based upon a range of human-reviewed precipitation forecasts. The range of forecasts include river stages based upon rainfall with only a 5% chance of occurring, rainfall with up to a 95% chance of occurring, and stages in between. One forecast is also included that shows the river model forecast if no forecasted rainfall occurs. This product can help illustrate how much of a river rise is likely to occur based upon rainfall that has already fallen, or may help illustrate confidence in a falling river continuing to fall if even the most extreme forecasted rainfall scenarios do not show a flat or rising river. Contact our office with questions about interpretation of the data.

For more information, see.