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For dual-pol images click here.
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Click image to enlarge. For an unlabeled image, click here. |
March 2nd saw a volatile early spring system impact the Great Lakes, Ohio River Valley, and deep South of the United States. This low pressure had winter-like weather on its north and west quadrants including over northern Illinois, Wisconsin, and Michigan, where rain changed to ice pellets and heavy snow, at times accompanied by thunder. On the system's eastern and southern flanks, a significant severe outbreak unfolded, with numerous apparent long-lived tornadoes. Throughout the entire region, gusty winds were seen as the entire system deepened rapidly.
The below upper air maps show data plots from weather balloon instrument launches across the central U.S. at 6 pm on the 2nd. The maps have further been analyzed by a computer model to show key features, which are described under each image. Below these is a surface weather map from noon on the 2nd. The features depicted on these maps all came together in tandem to develop the widespread high impact weather event.
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March 2nd, 6 pm Upper Air Graphics with RUC Model Analysis |
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300 mb |
500 mb |
700 mb |
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Wind speeds contoured. An impressive 135 kt jet was the key in deepening this system. Note the incredibly tight gradient in the isotachs within a favorable quadrant for lift over northern Illinois. This indicates the potential for significant vertical motion.
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Temperatures contoured with height falls in the dashed lines. The strong cold advection in the mid-levels overriding the warm and moist boundary layer helped to ignite the severe weather to our southeast, and favor scattered thunder in our area. The height fall bulls eye, an impressive 160 meters in 12 hours, is centered directly over the area. Such magnitudes are often correlated with and are reflective of widespread, deep ascent.
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Dew points are contoured, with heights plotted. The 700 mb low over central Lake Michigan had passed across far north central Illinois. Ample moisture in the mid-levels is shown to be wrapped ahead and around of this deepening system. The massive drying across southern IL into central IN, indicative of a system dry slot, further enhanced the instability and associated precipitation rates over northern IL. It also served as an impetus in triggering the convection to the southeast. |
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March 2, 12 pm Surface Weather Map |
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This surface map reveals the massive temperature and moisture discontinuity developing around the system. Note the 71 degrees in southeast Illinois compared to 39 degrees in Chicago. The instability and moisture at the surface was lifted north over the warm front and helped to fuel scattered thunderstorms and heavy precipitation rates across northern Illinois. |
The rapid movement and development of the low pressure area helped to drive the winds. The pressure falls ahead of the low and rises behind it were substantial. This loop below is of analyzed three hour pressure tendency. Note the strong couplet of rises and falls and how they intensify over lower Michigan and northwest Ohio, where 50 mph + gusts were observed,
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March 2nd: Three Hour Pressure Tendency Loop from Late Morning Through Evening |
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During the middle of the afternoon across parts of northern Illinois, moderate rain rapidly changed to heavy snow, including thundersnow. Numerous places saw a change to ice pellets first. The first radar loop below is of reflectivity, or basic energy reflected back to the radar. It is hourly through basically the entire event. Note the change in overlaid observations from rain to snow, at times with a mix. This correlates with higher reflectivity in some places.
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March 2nd: Hourly Radar Loop from 10 am - 8 pm |
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Click to open a loop (~4 MB) |
One of the exciting advantages of the dual-polarization (dual-pol) capability that NWS Chicago received in an October radar upgrade is better determination of precipitation type at the level where the radar is sampling. It is important to note where the radar is sampling as the radar beam height still increases at further distances from the radar due primarily to the curve of the earth. While the data may not necessarily be reflective of what is occurring at the ground at that point, especially at greater distances from the radar, it often can give a very good estimate.
One of the dual-pol elements that can help distinguish precipitation type and estimate the melting layer height is correlation coefficient. This variable describes the differences in shapes and types within the radar sample. Values of 0.98 to 1 indicate a homogenous area of scatterers, while lower values indicate a sample composed of varying sizes and types of scatterers (for example a mix of rain and snow, or rain and ice pellets, or different sized snowflakes). Within the correlation coefficient loop below, lower values of 0.85 to 0.95 are first seen across the Rockford area, and the airport reports a change to sleet. These lower values (green/yellow color) of correlation coefficient shift east through the loop. Soon after, most of the observations change to snow. The values after the change are greater than 0.98, depicting a homogenous composition where the radar is sampling. Knowing the state of the atmosphere behind this change, meteorologists could tell that this indicated all snow (at least at the radar level). From only the reflectivity loop above, one could likely not determine that. This shows the benefit to winter weather analysis and short term forecasting that dual-polarization data brings.
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March 2nd: Dual-Polarization Correlation Coefficient Element Loop from 12 pm - 5 pm (every 5 minutes) |
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Click to open a loop (~5 MB) |
Below you can view the still images of correlation coefficient from every half hour apart to further visualize the changes in the data and observations.
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~1:00 pm |
~1:30 pm |
~2:00 pm |
~2:30 pm |
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~3:00 pm |
~3:30 pm |
~4:00 pm |
~4:30 pm |
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If interested in learning more on the dual-pol radar basics, please visit this public training page by the NWS Warning Decision Training Branch. For more detailed specifics behind the variables of dual-pol radar, please visit the NWS NSSL dual-pol information page here.
The rapid transition of precipitation type was due to cooling of the atmosphere, despite it being the middle of the afternoon. The cooling in part was simply due to cooler air wrapping into the northern and western parts of the system as the wind field begin to evolve counterclockwise around the low center. The widespread precipitation itself also helped to further cool the lower atmosphere. Intense precipitation, such as indicated within the observations and higher radar reflectivity echoes seen across northern Illinois, can often hasten the cooling process. Below are two mid-afternoon temperature and wind profiles from about two hours aprt near Chicago from aircraft equipped with weather sensors. Note the rapid change in the temperature profile within the lowest several hundred millibars. This was sufficient enough based on reports to change rain to more of a mix with ice pellets, and in some places further west to just snow. In the wind barb plots on the right side of each graphic one can see the winds became more northwesterly in the low-levels, aiding the temperature cooling.
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March 2nd: Atmospheric Cooling near Chicago During the Afternoon |
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Snowfall Amounts and Ice Pellet/Hail Reports
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Snowfall Analysis |
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Click to Enlarge |
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NWS Cooperative Observer Reports |
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Snowfall Reports |
Precipitation Reports (Rain and Melted Snow) |
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Snowfall Amounts of at Least One Inch from NWS Cooperative Observers and CoCoRaHS Observers:
Other Reports
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1247 AM CST SAT MAR 03 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0145 PM HAIL AURORA 41.77N 88.29W
03/02/2012 U0.25 INCH KANE IL NWS EMPLOYEE
RAIN MIXED WITH GRAUPEL REPORTED.
0201 PM HAIL HUNTLEY 42.17N 88.42W
03/02/2012 M0.25 INCH MCHENRY IL TRAINED SPOTTER
PEA SIZED GRAUPEL MIXED WITH RAIN.
0205 PM HAIL JOLIET 41.53N 88.12W
03/02/2012 E0.25 INCH WILL IL PUBLIC
PEA SIZED GRAUPEL MIXED WITH RAIN.
0215 PM HAIL WNW PARK RIDGE 42.01N 87.84W
03/02/2012 M0.25 INCH COOK IL COCORAHS
PEA SIZED GRAUPEL MIXED WITH RAIN.
0215 PM HAIL SCHAUMBURG 42.03N 88.08W
03/02/2012 M0.25 INCH COOK IL AMATEUR RADIO
PEA SIZED GRAUPEL MIXED WITH RAIN.
0225 PM HAIL PLAINFIELD 41.62N 88.20W
03/02/2012 M0.25 INCH WILL IL TRAINED SPOTTER
PEA SIZED GRAUPEL MIXED WITH RAIN BEGAN AT 225 CST AND
ENDED AT 228 CST.
0228 PM HAIL WILMETTE 42.08N 87.73W
03/02/2012 E0.25 INCH COOK IL TRAINED SPOTTER
0230 PM HAIL ESE WINNETKA 42.11N 87.74W
03/02/2012 M0.25 INCH COOK IL COCORAHS
PEA SIZED GRAUPEL MIXED WITH RAIN AND THUNDER.
0231 PM HAIL OTTAWA 41.35N 88.84W
03/02/2012 E0.25 INCH LA SALLE IL TRAINED SPOTTER
0234 PM HAIL AURORA 41.77N 88.29W
03/02/2012 M0.25 INCH KANE IL TRAINED SPOTTER
PEA SIZED GRAUPEL MIXED WITH RAIN REPORTED AT THE AIR
TRAFFIC CONTROL CENTER IN AURORA.
0235 PM HAIL 2 SW LISLE 41.77N 88.12W
03/02/2012 M0.25 INCH DUPAGE IL TRAINED SPOTTER
GRAUPEL MIXED WITH RAIN.
0235 PM HAIL SW NAPERVILLE 41.76N 88.15W
03/02/2012 E0.25 INCH DUPAGE IL TRAINED SPOTTER
HAIL LASTED FROM 231 PM TO 232 PM.
0237 PM HAIL WARRENVILLE 41.82N 88.19W
03/02/2012 M0.25 INCH DUPAGE IL TRAINED SPOTTER
PEA SIZED GRAUPEL MIXED WITH RAIN.
0237 PM HAIL NAPERVILLE 41.76N 88.15W
03/02/2012 M0.25 INCH DUPAGE IL NWS EMPLOYEE
GRAUPEL MIXED WITH RAIN.
0237 PM HAIL MOUNT PROSPECT 42.07N 87.94W
03/02/2012 M0.25 INCH COOK IL TRAINED SPOTTER
PEA SIZED GRAUPEL MIXED WITH RAIN
0239 PM HAIL BATAVIA 41.85N 88.30W
03/02/2012 M0.25 INCH KANE IL TRAINED SPOTTER
GRAUPEL MIXED WITH RAIN.
0250 PM HEAVY SNOW MENDOTA 41.55N 89.12W
03/02/2012 U0.0 INCH LA SALLE IL PUBLIC
HEAVY THUNDERSNOW.
0250 PM HAIL OAK BROOK 41.84N 87.95W
03/02/2012 M0.25 INCH DUPAGE IL CO-OP OBSERVER
PEA SIZED HAIL REPORTED
0250 PM HAIL 2 WNW BULL VALLEY 42.32N 88.39W
03/02/2012 M0.25 INCH MCHENRY IL COCORAHS
PEA SIZED GRAUPEL MIXED WITH RAIN FEEL AT 215 PM CST THEN
TRANSITION TO SNOW BY 250 PM CST.
0303 PM SNOW ROCHELLE 41.92N 89.06W
03/02/2012 U0.0 INCH OGLE IL PUBLIC
THUNDERSNOW REPORTED IN ROCHELLE, AT NIU IN DE KALB,
MARENGO, BELVIDERE, CORTLAND AND SYCAMORE. RELAYED BY
BROADCAST MEDIA.
0303 PM HAIL DYER 41.50N 87.51W
03/02/2012 M0.25 INCH LAKE IN TRAINED SPOTTER
0305 PM HAIL LISLE 41.79N 88.09W
03/02/2012 M0.25 INCH DUPAGE IL TRAINED SPOTTER
PEA SIZED GRAUPEL MIXED WITH RAIN.
0308 PM HAIL BOLINGBROOK 41.70N 88.08W
03/02/2012 E0.25 INCH WILL IL PUBLIC
0308 PM SNOW ROSCOE 42.42N 89.01W
03/02/2012 M1.0 INCH WINNEBAGO IL PUBLIC
SNOW TOTAL SO FAR. RELAYED BY WREX.
0315 PM SNOW SSW ASHTON 41.87N 89.22W
03/02/2012 M0.2 INCH LEE IL COCORAHS
SNOWFALL IN PAST 5 MINS. THE FLAKES ARE BIG AND THE
SNOWFALL RATE SO HEAVY THAT VISIBILITY IS REDUCED TO FEW
HUNDRED FEET. HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES.
0315 PM HAIL WARRENVILLE 41.82N 88.19W
03/02/2012 E0.25 INCH DUPAGE IL TRAINED SPOTTER
MODERATE TO HEAVY PEA SIZED GRAUPEL BEGINNING TO COVER
PAVEMENT BEFORE MELTING. LASTED ABOUT TEN MINUTES.
0320 PM SNOW CRYSTAL LAKE 42.23N 88.33W
03/02/2012 U0.0 INCH MCHENRY IL CO-OP OBSERVER
THUNDER WAS BEING OBSERVED AS IT WAS SNOWING. FINE SNOW
FLAKES ARE FALLING COMBINED WITH SLEET.
0325 PM HAIL NEW LENOX 41.52N 87.98W
03/02/2012 E0.25 INCH WILL IL TRAINED SPOTTER
0332 PM HAIL PALOS PARK 41.66N 87.84W
03/02/2012 E0.25 INCH COOK IL TRAINED SPOTTER
SMALLER THAN PEA SIZED HAIL REPORTED. ABOUT 0.1 INCH OF
HAIL ACCUMULATED CREATING EXTREMELY SLIPPERY CONDITIONS.
0341 PM HAIL SUMMIT 41.78N 87.82W
03/02/2012 M0.25 INCH COOK IL TRAINED SPOTTER
PEA SIZED HAIL FALLING WITH HEAVY RAIN.
0345 PM SNOW 1 N OTTAWA 41.36N 88.84W
03/02/2012 M0.9 INCH LA SALLE IL COCORAHS
3 PM STARTED SNOWING LIGHT AND SMALL FLAKES INCREASING IN
INTENSITY SHORTLY THEREAFTER AND WITH LARGE FLAKES
LASTING 45 MINUTES.
0345 PM HAIL HOMETOWN 41.73N 87.73W
03/02/2012 M0.25 INCH COOK IL TRAINED SPOTTER
SHORT PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND PEA SIZED HAIL.
0350 PM SNOW DE KALB 41.93N 88.75W
03/02/2012 M1.0 INCH DEKALB IL TRAINED SPOTTER
1 INCH OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. SNOWING AT AN ESTIMATED
RATE OF 1 INCH PER HOUR.
0354 PM HAIL LAKES OF THE FOUR SEASO 41.41N 87.22W
03/02/2012 E0.25 INCH PORTER IN TRAINED SPOTTER
PEA SIZED GRAUPEL MIXED WITH RAIN.
0403 PM SNOW SOUTH BARRINGTON 42.09N 88.15W
03/02/2012 U0.0 INCH COOK IL TRAINED SPOTTER
SNOW STARTED AT 345 PM. HEAVY SNOW. GROUND ALMOST
COVERED.
0412 PM SNOW FORRESTON 42.13N 89.58W
03/02/2012 M4.0 INCH OGLE IL BROADCAST MEDIA
0412 PM SNOW GENOA 42.10N 88.69W
03/02/2012 M2.0 INCH DE KALB IL BROADCAST MEDIA
0415 PM SNOW SSW ASHTON 41.87N 89.22W
03/02/2012 M1.4 INCH LEE IL COCORAHS
SNOW FALL PAST 45 MINS. SLICK ROADS.
0415 PM HAIL 5 WNW MARSEILLES 41.36N 88.78W
03/02/2012 E0.25 INCH LA SALLE IL COCORAHS
HAIL STARTED AT 1445 MIXED WITH RAIN, 1/4 TO 5/8 MIXED
HAIL SIZE. HAIL ENDED AT 1500. HEAVY SNOW STARTED QUARTER
SIZE FLAKES FOR 1 HOUR. STOPPED AT 4 PM.
0416 PM SNOW HUNTLEY 42.17N 88.42W
03/02/2012 M3.0 INCH MCHENRY IL TRAINED SPOTTER
3 INCHES OF SNOW FELL SO FAR AT REED ROAD AND HALIGUS RD.
0418 PM SNOW E HARVARD 42.42N 88.62W
03/02/2012 M1.5 INCH MCHENRY IL COCORAHS
SNOWING QUITE HEAVY. 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ON GROUND.
0420 PM SNOW 4 W HUNTLEY 42.17N 88.50W
03/02/2012 M2.0 INCH MCHENRY IL COCORAHS
2 INCHES OF SNOW FELL IN THE PAST HOUR. HEAVY SNOW IS
STILL FALLING WITH LARGE SNOW FLAKES. THUNDER ACCOMPANIED
THE SNOW WHEN THE SNOW INITIALLY BEGAN TO FALL.
0430 PM SNOW N HUNTLEY 42.17N 88.42W
03/02/2012 M1.7 INCH MCHENRY IL COCORAHS
1.7 INCHES OF SNOW FELL OVER THE PAST 75 MINUTES. 2
INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. VERY HEAVY SNOW STILL
FALLING.
0430 PM SNOW ROSELLE 41.98N 88.08W
03/02/2012 M0.7 INCH DUPAGE IL TRAINED SPOTTER
0.7 INCHES OF SNOW FELL IN 20 MINUTES.
0445 PM SNOW ST. CHARLES 41.92N 88.30W
03/02/2012 M1.0 INCH KANE IL CO-OP OBSERVER
STILL SNOWING.
0510 PM SNOW 4 NW ROCKFORD 42.31N 89.12W
03/02/2012 M2.5 INCH WINNEBAGO IL CO-OP OBSERVER
2.5 INCHES OF WET SNOW HAVE FALLEN THUS FAR.
0513 PM SNOW W ROCKFORD 42.27N 89.06W
03/02/2012 M2.8 INCH WINNEBAGO IL BROADCAST MEDIA
MEASURED AT WTVO. FAR WEST SIDE OF ROCKFORD.
0530 PM SNOW E HARVARD 42.42N 88.62W
03/02/2012 M3.4 INCH MCHENRY IL COCORAHS
3.4 INCHES OF SNOW HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS.
0600 PM SNOW 2 NE GURNEE 42.40N 87.91W
03/02/2012 M1.5 INCH LAKE IL COCORAHS
RAIN CHANGED TO SNOW AT 4 PM AND SNOWING PRETTY HEAVY
SINCE THEN. WET AND HEAVY SNOW.
0730 PM SNOW 2 WNW BULL VALLEY 42.32N 88.39W
03/02/2012 M4.9 INCH MCHENRY IL COCORAHS
STORM TOTAL SO FAR. LIGHT SNOW FALLING. 32F.
0730 PM SNOW ISLAND LAKE 42.28N 88.20W
03/02/2012 M1.0 INCH LAKE IL TRAINED SPOTTER
STORM TOTAL SO FAR.
0731 PM SNOW ELK GROVE VILLAGE 42.01N 87.99W
03/02/2012 E0.0 INCH COOK IL TRAINED SPOTTER
TRACE AMOUNT OF SNOW. HEAVY SNOW AT 4PM COVERED GRASSY
SURFACES ROADS SLUSHY WITH WET SNOW SOME BLACK ICE IN
OPEN AREAS ON ROADS. 7 PM SNOW STOPPED.
0744 PM SNOW CAPRON 42.40N 88.74W
03/02/2012 M3.2 INCH BOONE IL TRAINED SPOTTER
STORM TOTAL SO FAR. SNOW SEEMS TO HAVE STOPPED FOR NOW.
HEAVY SNOW ON TREES AND WIRES, SLIPPERY SIDE STREETS.
0934 PM SNOW POLO 41.98N 89.58W
03/02/2012 M3.3 INCH OGLE IL CO-OP OBSERVER
3.3 INCHES OF SNOW FALL REPORTED FROM NWS CO-OP OBSERVER
WITH A WATER EQUIV. OF 0.37 INCHES. REGULAR 9PM REPORT.
1200 AM SNOW ROCKFORD AIRPORT 42.20N 89.10W
03/03/2012 M2.9 INCH WINNEBAGO IL OFFICIAL NWS OBS
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Maximum Wind Gusts at Automated Sensors |
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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 457 AM CST SAT MAR 3 2012 /557 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2012/ ...HIGHEST WIND GUSTS FROM MARCH 2ND-3RD STORM SYSTEM... THE FOLLOWING IS A LIST OF MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 35 MPH FROM AUTOMATED SENSORS ACROSS THE AREA. OBSERVATIONS ARE COLLECTED FROM A VARIETY OF SOURCES WITH VARYING EQUIPMENT...EXPOSURES...AND REPORTING TIMES. NOT ALL DATA LISTED IS CONSIDERED OFFICIAL. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE THANKS ITS PRIVATE AND PUBLIC PARTNERS FOR PROVIDING US WITH THIS DATA. ...HIGHEST GUSTS OVER LAND IN THE AREA... SITE................COUNTY...........GUST.. 1 W CARBON HILL GRUNDY 44 MPH VALPARAISO PORTER 44 MPH 2 W COLLEGEVILLE JASPER 44 MPH KANKAKEE KANKAKEE 43 MPH ...GUSTS BY COUNTY... ...... ...ILLINOIS... ...WILL COUNTY... LOCKPORT (590 FT)(COOP) 600 PM MAR 2 40 MPH CHICAGO, IL (672 FT)(COOP) 555 PM MAR 2 40 MPH PEOTONE (720 FT)(APRSWXNET) 620 PM MAR 2 38 MPH CHANNAHON (505 FT)(COOP) 300 AM MAR 3 37 MPH 3 NNE WILMINGTON (488 FT)(RAWS) 605 PM MAR 2 37 MPH JOLIET (COOP) 300 AM MAR 3 35 MPH 4 ESE BEECHER (745 FT)(APRSWXNET) 336 AM MAR 3 35 MPH ...LIVINGSTON COUNTY... PONTIAC (AWOS) 535 PM MAR 2 40 MPH ...LEE COUNTY... 2 WNW DIXON (799 FT)(APRSWXNET) 125 AM MAR 3 36 MPH ...LA SALLE COUNTY... PERU (620 FT)(AWOS) 1035 PM MAR 2 38 MPH ...KANKAKEE COUNTY... GREATER KANKAKEE AIRPORT (AWOS) 315 PM MAR 2 43 MPH ...KANE COUNTY... AURORA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (ASOS) 559 PM MAR 2 39 MPH 1 W BATAVIA (771 FT)(APRSWXNET) 632 PM MAR 2 36 MPH ...GRUNDY COUNTY... 1 W CARBON HILL (576 FT)(APRSWXNET) 522 PM MAR 2 44 MPH MORRIS (479 FT)(AWOS) 535 PM MAR 2 39 MPH ...DUPAGE COUNTY... DUPAGE AIRPORT (754 FT)(ASOS) 549 PM MAR 2 37 MPH ...DE KALB COUNTY... DE KALB (882 FT)(AWOS) 555 PM MAR 2 36 MPH ...COOK COUNTY... LAKEVIEW (620 FT)(APRSWXNET) 705 PM MAR 2 41 MPH CHICAGO MIDWAY AIRPORT (618 FT)(ASOS) 150 AM MAR 3 39 MPH 2 WNW BURNHAM (574 FT)(HADS) 200 AM MAR 3 39 MPH LANSING AIRPORT (AWOS) 335 AM MAR 3 38 MPH CHICAGO OHARE INTL APRT (658 FT)(ASOS) 715 PM MAR 2 37 MPH CHICAGO EXECUTIVE AIRPORT (ASOS) 637 PM MAR 2 35 MPH ...... ...INDIANA... ...PORTER COUNTY... VALPARAISO (ASOS) 1222 AM MAR 3 44 MPH ...NEWTON COUNTY... 5 NE MOROCCO (721 FT)(APRSWXNET) 112 PM MAR 2 35 MPH 4 WSW BROOK (659 FT)(APRSWXNET) 532 PM MAR 2 35 MPH ...LAKE COUNTY... GARY REGIONAL AIRPORT (AWOS) 745 PM MAR 2 41 MPH BROOKFIELD (APRSWXNET) 208 AM MAR 3 35 MPH ...JASPER COUNTY... 2 W COLLEGEVILLE (657 FT)(INDOT) 753 PM MAR 2 44 MPH 2 WNW RENSSELAER (698 FT)(AWOS) 555 PM MAR 2 39 MPH ...... ...OFFSHORE REPORTING STATIONS... CHICAGO CRIB (577 FT)(MARITIME) 730 PM MAR 2 47 MPH BURNS HARBOR (592 FT)(GLOS) 230 AM MAR 3 42 MPH
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