Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce heavy to excessive rainfall over portions of the Central/Southern Plains and Mississippi Valley today. There is a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall and a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms today. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over parts of western Florida today. Read More >
![]() MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0622 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1151 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SC...CNTRL/ERN NC...CNTRL/ERN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 271651Z - 271815Z PORTIONS OF SC...CNTRL/ERN NC...AND CNTRL/ERN VA WILL EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A SVR WEATHER RISK...AND THE AREA WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A WW ISSUANCE. DEEP LAYER S-SWLY FLOW RESIDES ACROSS THE SERN ATLANTIC AND MID ATLANTIC REGION...CHARACTERIZED BY 40 KT SLY LLJ OVERLAYED BY STRENGTHENING SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW /APPROACHING 40 KT/. IN ADDITION...VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S/ COINCIDES WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING /TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S/. THE WARM/MOIST CONDITIONS ARE LEADING TO RAPID DESTABILIZATION AND THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. GIVEN MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG...FAVORABLY STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND STRENGTHENING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILES /EFFECTIVE SHEAR INCREASING TO 35-50 KT...AND ENLARGING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH STRUCTURE/...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ..GARNER.. 04/27/2011 ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE... GSP... LAT...LON 35658107 38147891 38127673 36527643 34697776 33018019 33038123 34018169 35658107 |