The Ides Of March Supercell Outbreak Across Northeast Georgia and Upstate South Carolina

Fresh Snow and Temperature Outlook Ahead of Christmas Day

If you are looking for fresh snow by Christmas morning or are curious about potential travel disruptions, the best chances for at least 1" of new snowfall early this week exist across the mountainous West, Great Lakes, and Northeast. Otherwise, temperatures this last full week of December will average above normal for much of the lower 48 states. Read More >

SPC AC 160107 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0807 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008 VALID 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF S CNTRL AND SERN GA INTO EXTREME SERN SC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM S CNTRL AND SE GA INTO SE SC AND ERN NC... ...E CNTRL AND SE GA THROUGH THE ERN CAROLINAS... PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT EXISTS WITH BAND OF TRAINING SUPERCELLS FROM E CNTRL AND SE GA THROUGH EXTREME SERN SC WITHIN LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME. RECENT CHARLESTON VWP SHOWS DEEP SHEAR OF 70+ KT AND VERY LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY FROM 300-400 M2/S2. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT ESEWD WITH THE THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES NEXT 2-3 HOURS BEFORE EVENTUALLY WEAKENING AND MOVING OFFSHORE. SWD EXTENT OF DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIMITED BY STRENGTHENING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND TENDENCY FOR DEEP LAYER FORCING TO GRADUALLY DECREASE AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL JET MOVE DOWNSTREAM OF THIS REGION. FARTHER NORTH A MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTER CONTINUES THROUGH ERN NC. CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN IS DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 50S IN CONJUNCTION WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN HAVE LIMITED INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA WITH MUCAPE AOB 300 J/KG. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS SHIFTING NEWD THROUGH ERN NC CONTRIBUTING TO LARGE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. HOWEVER...RUC SOUNDINGS FOR NERN NC BASED ON OBSERVED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SUGGEST MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. ...W CNTRL CA... STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ATTENDING VORT MAX DROPPING SWD THROUGH CA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL NEXT FEW HOURS. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH 20+ DEGREE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINTS SPREADS MAY ALSO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET. ..DIAL.. 03/16/2008 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z