Epic Outbreak of Tornadoes Across the Southeast on 27-28 April 2011 Impacts Northeast Georgia and Western North Carolina

Severe Thunderstorms and Excessive Rainfall in the Central and Southern Plains

Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce heavy to excessive rainfall over portions of the Central/Southern Plains and Mississippi Valley today. There is a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall and a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms today. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over parts of western Florida today. Read More >

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240850 SPC AC 240850 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0350 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2011 VALID 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE/SEVERE WEATHER EVENT -- ONGOING FROM THE DAY 3 /TUE. 4-26/ PERIOD -- IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND GULF COAST STATES DAY 4 /WED. 4-27/...AS MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS BOTH FORECAST EWD PROGRESSION OF THE LARGE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH. AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS EWD TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FEATURING MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT CONTINUATION/REDEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER -- INCLUDING HAIL/WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES -- SUPPORTS CONTINUATION OF A LARGE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA FOR DAY 4. MODEL TIMING WITH RESPECT TO THE SURFACE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIFFER MORE SUBSTANTIALLY DAY 5 /THU. 4-28/...THUS CASTING SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO LOCATION AND DEGREE OF THREAT E OF THE APPALACHIANS DAY 5. THEREFORE...WHILE POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES SOMEWHERE BETWEEN LATE IN THE DAY 4 PERIOD AND THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF DAY 5...WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT A SPECIFIC THREAT AREA THIS FORECAST. WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO HAVE SWEPT OFFSHORE BY THE START OF DAY 6 /FRI. 4-29/...FOCUS SHIFTS WWD AS THE NEXT SYSTEM SHIFTS ACROSS/OUT OF THE ROCKIES. MODELS ARE IN MORE SUBSTANTIAL DISAGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION AND PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE...AND THUS WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT ANY LONGER-RANGE THREAT AREAS THIS FORECAST. ..GOSS.. 04/24/2011 CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT