Epic Outbreak of Tornadoes Across the Southeast on 27-28 April 2011 Impacts Northeast Georgia and Western North Carolina

Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook issued at 0600 UTC on 26 April 2011 Day 2 Severe Weather probability issued at 0600 UTC on 26 April 2011
SPC AC 260600
   
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011
   
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
   
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...THE NORTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA...AND NORTHWEST
GEORGIA...
   
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION SWWD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
   
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS FORECAST TO
MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY EWD PROGRESS THIS PERIOD...WITH A POTENT SPEED
MAX FORECAST TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND SHIFT ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION WITH TIME.
   
AT THE SURFACE...A DEEPENING LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE
VICINITY OF AR EARLY NNEWD TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE A
TRAILING COLD FRONT ACCELERATES EWD ACROSS THE OH/TN/MID AND LOWER
MS VALLEYS.  BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE
APPALACHIANS -- WITH A ZONE BETWEEN THE MS RIVER AND THE APPALACHIAN
CREST LIKELY TO SEE A WIDESPREAD/POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT THIS PERIOD.  
   
...LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
***POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT --
INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO OUTBREAK -- REMAINS EVIDENT
THIS FORECAST...CENTERED ON THE MID SOUTH/TN VALLEY AREA.***
   
SOME QUESTIONS EXIST ATTM WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THIS
PERIOD...CENTERED AROUND THE ONGOING STORMS PROGGED TO BE SHIFTING
ACROSS ERN AR AND INTO WRN TN/NRN MS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. 
WHILE THE COVERAGE AND PROGRESSION OF THIS CONVECTION COULD HAVE
EFFECTS ON TIMING/LOCATION OF LATER DAY STORMS AS WELL AS THE
QUALITY OF AIRMASS IN SOME AREAS...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT EARLY STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE ENEWD ACROSS WRN KY/WRN TN/NRN MS THROUGH THE
MORNING...POSSIBLY WEAKENING SOME WITH TIME.
   
HOWEVER...AS HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COMMENCES AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER FEATURE AND AWAY FROM ANY
CONVECTIVELY-COOLED AREAS...STORM REINTENSIFICATION AND NEW STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  
   
STRONG SLY SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING TO 80 TO 100
KT FROM THE SW AT MID LEVELS WILL PROVIDE SHEAR HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR
VERY INTENSE/LONG-LIVED ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  THIS -- COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF
SIGNIFICANT LONG-TRACK TORNADOES AND -- DEPENDING UPON STORM MODE --
THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD/VERY DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL.
ATTM...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS
TN/KY/NRN MS AND NRN AND CENTRAL AL...WHILE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
WIND DAMAGE -- ALONG WITH TORNADO THREAT -- WILL EXTEND NNEWD ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.
   
OVERNIGHT...SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE...THOUGH STORMS MAY
BECOME MORE LINEAR AHEAD OF THE ACCELERATING FRONT AS IT MOVES TO --
AND POSSIBLY ACROSS -- THE APPALACHIANS.  EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS TO PERSIST WITH THE CONVECTIVE LINE...GIVEN THE
OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE LARGE-SCALE SYSTEM.
   
..GOSS.. 04/26/2011
   
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