SPC Mesoscale Discussion 1893 on 14 October 2014

Severe Thunderstorms and Heavy Rain in the Southern Plains; Fire Weather Threat in the Southwest U.S.

Thunderstorms, some severe, may produce heavy to excessive rainfall and isolated flooding over portions of the Southern Plains today and Saturday. Dry conditions, combined with gusty winds and low relative humidities will continue to support an elevated to critical fire weather threat in the Desert Southwest into to early next week. Read More >

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1893 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN INTO NRN GA...WRN SC AND WRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 141731Z - 142000Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...WE ARE MONITORING FOR ANY INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY FOR CONDITIONAL THREAT OF A TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DISCUSSION...SURFACE MAP AND SATELLITE SHOW A COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD ACROSS WRN GA INTO ERN TN/KY WITH A LARGE ZONE OF MAINLY STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION AHEAD ACROSS CNTRL GA INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS. SHEAR PROFILES ARE VERY STRONG ACROSS THE AREA WITH 0-1 KM SRH OVER 250 M2/S2 NEAR ATLANTA AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR BENEATH THE UPPER JET. REFLECTIVITY VALUES HAVE INCREASED ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS WRN GA RECENTLY WHERE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS STRONGEST. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE INSTABILITY...WHICH IS MINIMAL GIVEN LACK OF APPRECIABLE COOLING ALOFT AND MINIMAL HEATING. POCKETS OF HEATING DO EXIST FARTHER N ACROSS WRN NC WITH TEMPERATURES NOW ABOVE 80 F. WITH TIME...THIS AREA OF FORCING MAY EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR FROM NRN GA INTO WRN NC...POSSIBLY PROVING SUFFICIENT FOR A ZONE OF TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. MESOSCALE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH. ..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 10/14/2014