SPC Mesoscale Discussion 1893 on 14 October 2014

Mesoscale Discussion #1893 issued at 1731 UTC 14 October 2014

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1893
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1231 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN INTO NRN GA...WRN SC AND WRN NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 141731Z - 142000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...WE ARE MONITORING FOR ANY INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY FOR
   CONDITIONAL THREAT OF A TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

   DISCUSSION...SURFACE MAP AND SATELLITE SHOW A COLD FRONT ADVANCING
   EWD ACROSS WRN GA INTO ERN TN/KY WITH A LARGE ZONE OF MAINLY
   STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION AHEAD ACROSS CNTRL GA INTO THE WRN
   CAROLINAS. SHEAR PROFILES ARE VERY STRONG ACROSS THE AREA WITH 0-1
   KM SRH OVER 250 M2/S2 NEAR ATLANTA AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   BENEATH THE UPPER JET.

   REFLECTIVITY VALUES HAVE INCREASED ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS WRN GA
   RECENTLY WHERE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS STRONGEST. THE LIMITING FACTOR
   FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE INSTABILITY...WHICH IS MINIMAL
   GIVEN LACK OF APPRECIABLE COOLING ALOFT AND MINIMAL HEATING. POCKETS
   OF HEATING DO EXIST FARTHER N ACROSS WRN NC WITH TEMPERATURES NOW
   ABOVE 80 F. 

   WITH TIME...THIS AREA OF FORCING MAY EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH
   SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR FROM NRN GA INTO WRN NC...POSSIBLY
   PROVING SUFFICIENT FOR A ZONE OF TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.
   MESOSCALE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR A
   POSSIBLE WATCH.

   ..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 10/14/2014