SPC Mesoscale Discussion 1889 on 14 October 2014

Mesoscale Discussion #1889 issued at 1022 UTC 14 October 2014

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1889
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0522 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN GA THROUGH WRN SC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 141022Z - 141145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LINE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF SPORADIC INSTANCES OF DAMAGING
   WIND AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
   REMAINDER OF ERN GA AND EVENTUALLY INTO SC THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL
   APPROACH THE ERN BORDER OF WW 543 BY 11Z...AND EXISTING WW CAN BE
   EXTENDED FARTHER EAST. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
   DOWNSTREAM TO INCLUDE EXTREME ERN GA INTO SC.

   DISCUSSION...LINE OF STORMS FROM NCNTRL GA SWWD THROUGH SWRN GA
   CONTINUES EAST AT 25-35 KT WHILE INDIVIDUAL ELEMENTS WITHIN THE LINE
   MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD. A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 70F DEWPOINTS
   HAS ADVECTED THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY
   RESULTING IN 500-800 J/KG MUCAPE WELL INTO SC. LLJ HAS BEEN
   STRENGTHENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING AS IT DEVELOPS EWD AND NEWD
   THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   LIFTING NEWD THROUGH MS AND WRN TN. VWP DATA FROM WARNER ROBINS
   SAMPLED THE SRN EXTENSION OF THE LLJ WITH 50 KT INDICATED JUST BELOW
   1 KM. STORMS WITHIN THE LINE INTERACTING WITH STRONG LOWER-MID
   TROPOSPHERIC WINDS AND THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD CONTINUE TO
   EXHIBIT OCCASIONAL ORGANIZATION INCLUDING LEWP AND EMBEDDED
   SUPERCELLS AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EWD THIS MORNING.

   ..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 10/14/2014