The Palm Sunday, March 28, 2010, Severe Thunderstorm Outbreak

Day 1 Convective Outlook issued at 1626 UTC 28 March 2010
SPC AC 281626
   
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT SUN MAR 28 2010
   
VALID 281630Z - 291200Z
   
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF GA/SC/NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA...
   
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
FL PENINSULA...
   
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MULTIPLE MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY
MAXES ROTATING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY.  ONE SYSTEM IS NOW
OVER KY/TN AND WILL TRACK INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY TONIGHT.  ANOTHER
VORT LOBE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO AL...AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE
CAROLINAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  AND FINALLY A THIRD
SOUTHERN-STREAM FEATURE TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD
THE FL PENINSULA.  EACH OF THESE WILL RESULT IN A RISK OF STRONG
STORMS LATER TODAY.
   
...GA/CAROLINAS/SCNTRL VA...
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM EASTERN AL INTO THE CAROLINAS ARE
SLOWLY TRANSPORTING 50S DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD AND HELPING TO
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
PROGRESSIVELY MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...WHICH WILL ALSO HELP TO
PROVIDE POCKETS OF AFTERNOON MUCAPE OF UP TO 750 J/KG.  MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS WILL
OCCUR OVER EASTERN GA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD IN VICINITY OF REMNANT WEDGE FRONT INTO SC/NC.  THIS
ZONE WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS. 
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR SHOW LARGE LOOPING HODOGRAPHS
AND RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.  THREAT SHOULD WEAKEN A FEW HOURS AFTER DARK AS
TEMPERATURES COOL QUICKLY BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S.
   
...FL PENINSULA...
A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE WEST COAST OF
FL THIS MORNING.  THESE STORMS WILL BEGIN MOVING INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AND AFFECT MUCH OF THE PENINSULA TODAY AND TONIGHT. 
WIDESPREAD ANVIL CIRRUS FROM STORMS WILL GREATLY HAMPER DAYTIME
HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION.  HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER
60S AND STRONG DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG UPDRAFTS FOR SOME RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL LATER TODAY.
   
..HART/GARNER.. 03/28/2010
   
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