SPC Day 3 Convective Outlook Issued on 12 October 2014

Day 3 Convective Outlook issued at 0730 UTC 12 October 2014

SPC AC 120730

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0230 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014

   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE GULF
   COASTAL STATES INTO THE TN VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND
   AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY
   MAINLY OVER A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES INTO THE SOUTHERN
   APPALACHIANS. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MORE LIMITED WITH NORTHWARD
   EXTENT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD ECMWF WITH A SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED
   SOLUTION AND CLOSING OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY
   REGION TUESDAY AND CONTINUING ONLY SLOWLY EAST DURING THE DAY. BY
   TUESDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM A SFC LOW OVER IL SWD
   THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND WRN AL. THE SFC LOW WILL OCCLUDE OVER IL
   WHILE TRAILING FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND GULF COAST
   STATES.

   ...GULF COASTAL STATES THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIAN AREA...

   AXIS OF RICHER GULF MOISTURE WITH NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS WILL HAVE
   ADVECTED THROUGH THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR INTO A PORTION OF THE
   SERN STATES. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES WILL RESULT IN MODEST INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE REMAINING AOB
   1000 J/KG. LINE OF STORMS WILL BE ONGOING FROM THE TN VALLEY SWD
   THROUGH AL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED IN NEARLY PARALLEL
   DEEP LAYER WINDS...ADVANCING SLOWLY EAST DURING THE DAY.  STRONG
   WINDS ALOFT WILL PERSIST WITHIN ERN SECTOR OF THE UPPER LOW
   CIRCULATION WITH VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINING SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
   STORMS WITHIN THE LINE. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
   LINE...ESPECIALLY WHERE BOUNDARY-LAYER WARMING OCCURS. POTENTIAL
   WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED LEWP AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH DAMAGING
   WIND THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES CANNOT BE
   RULED OUT OVER THE GULF COASTAL STATES.

   ...OH VALLEY...

   INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED /AOB 500 J/KG/ IN THIS REGION.
   A FORCED LOW-TOPPED SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SLOWLY EAST
   DURING THE DAY. WHILE SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STRONG WIND
   GUSTS GIVEN THE STRONG KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT...OVERALL THREAT SHOULD
   REMAIN LIMITED BY THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

   ..DIAL.. 10/12/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z