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Latest PA Weather Summary:

899
AWUS81 KCTP 262110
RWSCTP
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-271115-

Regional Weather Summary
National Weather Service State College PA
510 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

A deep low over eastern Canada this afternoon will keep
a northwest flow of cold air over the Keystone state into
Sunday. Lighter winds and clear skies will likely result
in Sunday night being the colder night of the next several
nights. Temperatures will warm to well above normal on Tuesday,
as high pressure moves off the southeast coast, and a gusty
southwest flow of air develops.

Lows tonight will be tapered some by extensive cloud cover
over the mountains, and a gusty wind. Lows tonight will range
from the 30s across the north and west, to the lower 40s across
the southeast. Morning clouds across the mountains on Sunday
will give way to more in the way of sunshine by afternoon.
High temperatures will range from the 50s across the mountains,
to the mid 60s across the southeast. Lows Sunday night will
range from the upper 20s to mid 30s across the north and west,
to the lower 40s across the southeast. Most locations on Monday
will climb into the 70s. Plenty of sunshine will prevail on
Monday.

$$

Martin

Latest Forecaster's Discussion:

618
FXUS61 KCTP 270530
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
130 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Dry conditions with gusty northwest winds accompany cooler
temperatures late this evening through Monday.
* Warmer temperatures prevail on Tuesday with a severe
thunderstorm risk during the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Northwest winds continue to gust to around 30kts this evening
associated with a tight pressure gradient south of a deepening
surface low over New England. Winds are expected to diminish
only slightly overnight, as the low slowly pulls away from the
region.

Low level instability associated with a closed upper low
passing just north of PA should result in mainly cloudy skies
across the northwest half of the forecast area overnight. Model
RH profiles even suggests the clouds may even expand into parts
of the Susq Valley. Somewhat deeper moisture associated with
the deformation band on the western periphery of the upper low,
combined with upslope flow, could yield a few light
showers/sprinkles over the NW Mtns late this evening (03Z-06Z).
Otherwise, dry conditions are anticipated tonight.

Low level cold advection will push readings downward this
evening, then expect them to level off after midnight as the
upper low and core of coldest air aloft passes. Min temps are
expected to range from the upper 30s over the Alleghenies, to
the mid 40s in the Susq Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Stratocu may linger over the northeast part of the forecast
area into Sunday morning. Otherwise, expect abundant sunshine
and seasonable temperatures, as the upper low lifts away from
the region and surface high pressure builds in from the Grt Lks.
Fairly deep mixing should result in still breezy conditions
Sunday. Bukfit soundings support gusts in the 25-30kt range
through mid afternoon. Model soundings show dry air above a
weak inversion, so have undercut NBM dewpoints during the day on
Sunday which results in RH values in the 20 to 30 percent
range.

Clear skies with light winds are expected Sunday night, allowing
for efficient radiational cooling. Frost potential appears
limited to areas where the growing season remains inactive.
Under a dry airmass on Monday, have also undercut NBM dewpoints
while also slightly increasing temperatures, allowing for MinRH
values in the 20-30% range; however, winds will be much lower
on Monday with high pressure centered over the region. This
should help to limit the potential for wildfire spread compared
to Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
On Tuesday into Wednesday, an amplified upper trough
progressing across the northern tier of states will push a warm
front/cold front progression through the Commonwealth. This
should lead to notably warmer temperatures within the surface
warm sector Tuesday afternoon, followed by potentially active
showers and thunderstorms ahead of an approaching cold front
later Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Ample instability
(1500-2000J/kg CAPE) and sufficient shear (30-40kts) will
combine with the left entrance region of a 75kt mid-level jet
streak to produce the potential for multicell thunderstorms and
perhaps some supercells. The greatest risk for severe weather
appears to be across the northwest mountains, though storms will
likely drift southeastward across PA Tuesday night and bring a
decreasing - but nonzero - threat of severe weather all the way
into the Lower Susquehanna Valley.

Latest medium range guidance supports warm and dry weather Wednesday,
as the cold front stalls out south of the Mason-Dixon Line and
high pressure noses into PA from the Grt Lks. However, the
boundary will remain close enough to justify low POPs across the
southwest part of the forecast area.

Latest EPS and GEFS both track a surface low north of PA
Thursday night, with the trailing cold front coming through Fri
AM. There is a fair amount of model spread regarding the timing
of the attendant warm front, but latest EPS plumes suggest the
best chance of showers will come Thu PM, as the low level jet
and plume of highest pwats overrun the arriving warm front. Most
likely rainfall Thu PM based on EPS plumes ranges from around
0.5 inches over the NW Mtns, to 0.10 inches over the Lower Susq
Valley.

Scattered convection is likely to accompany the trailing cold
front Fri AM, then there is broad model consensus in drier and
cooler conditions Fri PM into next weekend, as surface high
pressure builds in from the Grt Lks. However, diurnal heating
combined with passage of the upper trough supports a slight
chance of an afternoon shower Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At 06z, MVFR cigs were found across the western highlands
(BFD/JST), with borderline MVFR/VFR cigs drifting into the
central mtns (AOO/UNV). Expect similar conds to persist through
the remainder of the overnight, along with NW winds gusting
20-25 kts.

Skies will clear quickly Sunday morning, leaving widespread VFR
conds areawide by midday. It will remain very breezy, with
NW winds continuing to gust 20-30 kts.

Winds should finally diminish Sunday evening into Sunday night,
and it could turn frosty across northern and western PA.

Outlook...

Mon...VFR/No sig wx expected.

Tue aftn-Tues night...Showers and possibly a few t-storms with
restrictions possible.

Wed...A few lingering showers across primarily SW PA.

Thu...Showers and t-storms return areawide with restrictions
possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A return to lower relative humidity values is progged by all
model guidance on Sunday, along with continued gusty winds.
Current forecast for Sunday outlines south-central Pennsylvania
with the lowest RH values (20-30%) with a fairly large footprint
(covering much of central Pennsylvania) in the 35-35% MinRH
range on Sunday. Gusty northwesterly winds are expected to begin
during the predawn hours on Sunday, with the best window for
20-foot winds exceeding 20 mph coming during the
afternoon/evening hours, coinciding with the timeframe for
lowest RH.

However, increased fuel moisture due to recent rainfall should
result in a diminished risk of wildfire spread Sunday across
Central and Northern Pennsylvania. Where rain was not as heavy
across the Lower Susq Valley, greenup is well underway and
should likewise result in a low risk of wildfire spread Sunday.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Bauco/NPB
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Bauco
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Banghoff
AVIATION...Evanego
FIRE WEATHER...Fitzgerald/NPB

Latest Public Information Statement:

703
NOUS41 KCTP 231904
PNSCTP
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-241730-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
304 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025

To: Subscribers:
-NOAA Weather Wire Service
-Emergency Managers Weather Information Network
-NOAAPort
Other NWS Partners and NWS Employees

From: Greg Schoor, Chief
Marine, Tropical and Tsunami Services Branch

Subject: Hurricane Threats and Impacts (HTI) Mosaic Testing on
April 24, 2025

The National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs)
in Honolulu, Hawaii, San Juan, Puerto Rico, and all WFOs in the
contiguous United States that can issue tropical storm and
hurricane hazards will commence with Hurricane Threats and Impacts
(HTI) threat grid mosaic testing on Thursday, April 24, 2025.
Testing will begin at approximately 1500 UTC. Test activities will
take approximately 1 hour; however, NWS dissemination systems may
take up to an hour and a half to purge all test data. All test
data is expected to be cleared by 1730 UTC.

For the test, HTI grids will be created for hurricane Wind Threat,
Flooding Rain Threat, Tornado Threat, and Storm Surge Threat
(where applicable) at each participating WFO. Those grids are
stitched together into storm-scale HTI graphics. The HTI Mosaic
graphics are available in Keyhole Markup Language (KML) format on
the following webpage:
https://www.weather.gov/hti

The mosaics are also available through the National Digital
Forecast Database and on web pages hosted by the Weather Forecast
Offices (WFOs) affected by tropical cyclones. These webpages
include WFO Tropical Webpages and Graphical Hazardous Weather
Outlook (GHWO) Webpages.

GHWO Webpages use the following URL format, where XXX should be
replaced with the 3-letter identifier for the WFO of interest
(note that WFO Honolulu does not have a GHWO webpage):
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=XXX

WFO 3-letter identifiers and the respective NWS Region that each
WFO belongs to is listed at the following page:
https://www.weather.gov/pimar/CWAbyWFO

NWS Eastern, Southern, and Western Region WFO Tropical Webpages
use the following URL format, where XXX should be replaced with
the 3 letter identifier for the WFO of interest:

NWS Eastern Region WFOs:
https://www.weather.gov/XXX/tropical#hti

NWS Southern Region and Western Region WFOs:
https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=XXX#hti

The Tropical Webpage for WFO Honolulu can be found at:
https://www.weather.gov/hfo/hti

User information about HTI can be found here:
https://www.weather.gov/media/srh/tropical/HTI_Explanation.pdf

More specific details on HTI can be found in the Product Description
Document:
https://www.weather.gov/media/srh/tropical/PDD_HTI.pdf

Periodic software and hardware testing in preparation for tropical
cyclone events will continue during the remainder of 2025.

For more information, please contact:

Jonathan Guseman
Warning Coordination Meteorologist
National Weather Service Office
State College, PA
jonathan.guseman@noaa.gov

National Public Information Statements are online at:
https://www.weather.gov/notification/

$$