Light to moderate snow will continue into Saturday over the Great Lakes, Central Appalachians, and Northeast. This weekend into next week, a series of atmospheric rivers will bring gusty winds, periods of heavy rain, and mountain snow to northern California and the Pacific Northwest. Colder temperatures are in store for the weekend from the Great Lakes to East Coast. Read More >
Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA
This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA
See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.
|
623 FXUS61 KCTP 211116 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 616 AM EST Sat Dec 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS... * Scattered lake effect & upslope snow showers linger into Saturday as gusty northwest winds build in * Coldest airmass of the season so far brings single digit low temperatures by Monday morning * Christmas Eve system with mixed precip impacts travel while temperatures continue to moderate through the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Water vapor loop at 11Z shows a sharp upper level trough pushing through Central PA. Strong forcing ahead of this feature will support scattered snow showers across the South-Central Mtns through around 13Z. Large scale subsidence behind this feature should end the risk of snow showers east of the Alleghenies by mid morning. Lingering lake-enhanced orographic snow showers will continue to affect the Laurel Highlands and the N Mtns today. However, falling inversion heights behind the exiting upper level trough will result in only minimal additional accumulations, with perhaps up to an inch along the Laurel Ridge or in the snowbelt of Northwest Warren County. A deepening surface low lifting into the Canadian Maritimes will result in a fairly tight pressure gradient over PA today, producing gusty northwest winds. BUFKIT soundings suggest 20 to 30kt gusts are likely, mainly during the afternoon hours. Early morning satellite imagery is showing developing breaks in the stratocu, especially east of the Alleghenies. However, diurnal heating and cold temps aloft should result in clouds filling in by midday, with mostly cloudy skies even across the Susq Valley at times. Cloud cover and low level cold advection should result in little warming today. Mixing down model 850mb temps of -14C to -16C yields expected highs from only around 20F across the N Mtns, to the low 30s in the Lower Susq Valley. The gusty northwest wind should result in midday wind chills in the single digits over the N Mtns and teens most other locations. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... Dwindling lake effect snow showers/flurries over the NW Mtns/Laurel Highlands are expected tonight, as high pressure approaches from the Grt Lks. The cold will be the main story, with min temps in the single digits over the N Mtns to mid teens in the southeast counties. Although winds are expected to diminish tonight, radiational cooling will not be ideal due to a lingering breeze over the eastern counties and lingering lake effect stratocu over the Laurels and NW Mtns. Mostly sunny and cold weather with light winds are expected Sunday, as high pressure builds over the state. GEFS 2m temp anomalies are 10-15 degrees below average, translating to highs ranging from the mid to upper teens over the N Mtns, to the mid and upper 20s in the valleys of Southern PA. Even though highs will be several degrees below those of Saturday, the combination of sunshine and lighter winds may actually make it slightly more pleasant to be outside on Sunday afternoon. With high pressure overnight Sunday night, ideal conditions for radiational cooling will undoubtedly lead to the coldest low temperatures yet this winter by Monday morning. Lows will generally be in the single digits with below zero temperatures favored in northeast PA. Return southerly flow behind the departing high will help temperatures rebound some on Monday as high clouds stream in ahead of the next system. Current medium range guidance indicates most of the day will be dry, but precipitation could arrive in northwest PA by Monday evening. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A fairly fast moving, northern stream shortwave will cross PA late Monday into Tuesday and bring some light snow to the area. Best chance for -SN and a light accum of a coating to 2 inches will be across the Northern Mtns of the state. Some travel disruptions are possible for I-80, but significant accumulations appear unlikely at this point. GFS and its ensembles are further north with the track of the mid and upper level trough, but QPF along the trailing cold front leads to a similar outcome to the EC with respect to Snow Probs/Amounts. More of a blocky/split flow pattern develops across the entire CONUS as we head through Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Models indicate a general dry and chilly Christmas Day with max temps ranging from the low to mid 30s NE to the low 40s in the Metro Areas of southern PA. With similar temperatures on Tuesday across the region, prospects of a white Christmas are looking rather bleak for all but the northern tier of PA. Later in the week, predictability drops off quite a bit with fairly weak forcing and a very wiggly 500mb pattern. With high pressure to the northeast, it appears precipitation chances will be higher in southern PA. Relatively low moisture/PWATs indicate that QPF should be low, but persistent easterly flow could create some risk for a wintry mix and some freezing rain with any organized precipitation. Have kept precip as all rain or snow at this point, but will continue to monitor the threat. && .AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A few snow showers are progressing across the western airfields this morning causing MVFR to IFR visibilities and ceilings due to snowfall. These upslope and lake effect streamer bands of snow should gradually drift further west as flow over lake Erie becomes more northerly. However low ceilings are likely to persist over BFD until tonight, and upslope snow will keep JST in MVFR conditions most of the day. A few hours of improved conditions should occur at the western sites, but low clouds will likely quickly build back in during the overnight period tonight. VFR conditions will be likely across the Central Ridge and Valley Region after 12Z TAF package. Surface winds will be gusty out of the north today as well, with all sites expecting to see wind gusts near 25kts until near 06Z tonight. Outlook... Sat...Lingering SHSN NW/SW PA; Gusty winds ~25-30kts across the higher elevations during the late AM/PM hours. Sun...SHSN Far NW PA; otherwise, no sig wx. Mon...No sig wx. Tue...Snow enters W PA AM, overspreads area by afternoon. Wed...Residual showers early. Becoming VFR. && .CLIMATE... Astronomical winter (solstice) begins on Saturday, December 21st at 4:19 a.m. EST. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banghoff NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Lambert/Banghoff/NPB AVIATION...Bowen CLIMATE...Steinbugl |
|
Forecaster's |
County-by-County |
Daily Co-operative Station |
Public Information |
|
All NWS State College Text Statements/Forecasts:
|
|||
CLICK ON THE IMAGE BELOW TO USE THE NWS MOBILE WEB APP
|
Radar
Current Weather
Rivers & Lakes
Satellite
Forecast Maps
Hour by Hour Forecast
Winter Weather
Graphical Hazards
Weather Hazards Briefing
Fire Weather
Text Forecasts and Statements
Forecaster's Discussion
Send Us a Report
KCCX Local Radar (Hi-Res)
Drought
Tropical Weather
Follow us on Twitter
Follow us on Facebook
CTP RSS Feed