Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

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Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

381
FXUS61 KCTP 240525
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
125 AM EDT Thu Apr 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Warmer and rain-free through Thursday with low humidity
* Rain showers spread west to east Friday afternoon through
Saturday morning along with a few thunderstorm downpours
* Dry weather returns on Sunday and into Monday with summerlike
warming trend to close out the month of April

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Zonal flow prevailing aloft with flat upper ridging building
eastward from the Ohio Valley overnight. H8 high parked over the
mid Atlantic region with sfc ridge axis extending from Quebec
southward to the Delmarva region. Mostly clear skies will
prevail overnight, with just high thin clouds increasing after
midnight as deep layer moisture increases as the upper ridge
axis shifts eastward. Mins will generally range from 45-50F,
which is +5 to +15 degrees above late April climo (largest
departures over the western Alleghenies).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Moderation to the west of the aforementioned ridge axis moving
off of the eastern seaboard will bring a warmer day throughout
central PA on Thursday. Highs will generally range from 75-80F
which is +10 to +20 over the historical average.

The overall synoptic pattern and forecast soundings support
typical pre-greenup pattern of reduced sfc Td adding a few
degrees to sfc T, and lowering sfc minimum RH. Hires data
suggests minRH could drop into the teens across the southwest
and south central parts of the forecast area. Winds gradually
increase from the south, but likely stay low enough to preclude
an elevated wildfire risk (see fire wx section).

Warm air/theta-e advection pattern ramps up Thursday night into
Friday downstream of sfc low moving into the Mississippi Valley
with increasing clouds and rain probs from west to east. Models
show the low strengthening as it tracks across the Lower Great
Lakes Friday night into northern New England by Saturday night.
The parent h5 trough and attendant/trailing cold front will
drive widespread rainfall and a few t-storms across the area
with max POPs in the Friday evening through Saturday afternoon
timeframe.

PWATs >1.00 inch, relatively strong IWT and some elevated
instability suggests the potential for heavy rainfall
particularly across the northwest part of the forecast area.
This area has been wet relative to the southeast zones and may
be susceptible to some minor flooding concerns. WPC will
maintain the D3 MRGL ERO with increased soil saturation and
lower FFGs.

Influx cooler and drier air via gusty NWly post frontal flow
will spelling drying conditions from NW to SE late Saturday
through Saturday night. Min temps Saturday night/AM Sunday will
be 10 to 20 degrees lower vs. Friday night/AM Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Breezy start on Sunday with perhaps some low clouds lingering
downwind of Lake Erie. Otherwise, another nice stretch of
weather setting up heading into month end.

Key callouts and playbook moves for early next week include
lowering min temps Sunday night-AM Monday given strong PWAT and
MSLP signals. This introduces a frost/freeze risk that should be
monitored in the days ahead.

After bottoming Monday morning, expect another warming trend
into the middle of next week with highs climbing back into the
75-80F range. Models show 500mb ridge cresting the region
Tuesday which should open the door for increasing rain chances
by the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions expected (100% confidence) through the entire
24/06Z TAF package. Scattered clouds across northern PA will
exit central Pennsylvania by 08-10Z allowing for SKC through the
evening hours. Clouds will begin streaming into western
Pennsylvania, generally near-to-after 25/00Z. All model guidance
points to above VFR thresholds being met with current ceilings
hovering in the 8-12kft range. Showers will eventually become a
factor across central Pennsylvania on Friday and bring about
restrictions; however, very high (~90-100%) confidence that
mentions will come after 25/06Z at this time.

Outlook...

Fri...Showers developing during the afternoon and spreading to
the east Friday night with sub-VFR restrictions likely.

Sat...Sub-VFR likely with rain showers and possibly a t-storm.
Wind gusts 20-25kt from 280-310 degrees behind the front
Saturday night.

Sun-Mon...VFR/No sig wx expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MinRH expected to drop into the 20-30% range again Thursday
afternoon with downside risk into the teens across the southwest
and south central districts. Winds will begin to increase from
the south, but should remain below critical thresholds. Fuels
are sufficiently dry to the south of I80 per 4/23 collaboration
with PA DCNR/BOF patterns; so would not completely rule out a
SPS for elevated wildfire risk.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...DeVoir/Steinbugl
AVIATION...NPB
FIRE WEATHER...Steinbugl

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