Latest PA Weather Summary:
063
AWUS81 KCTP 252047
RWSCTP
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-261100-
Regional Weather Summary
National Weather Service State College PA
447 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025
Light precipitation will likely stay to the south of the Mason
Dixon line tonight, with a higher probability of snow showers
downwind of Lake Erie across the northern tier of Pennsylvania
into Wednesday morning. Low temperatures will range from the mid
20s in the northern tier to the upper 30s in the southeastern
portion of the Commonwealth.
Wednesday will be the coldest day of the week with highs ranging
from the mid 30s for the northern tier to the lower 50s in the
Lehigh, Lower Susquehanna, and Delaware Valleys. Gusty winds will
make it feel slightly colder especially over the western and
northern Allegheny Mountains. Decreasing clouds and wind Wednesday
night will allow minimum temperatures to drop below the freezing
mark across most of Pennsylvania by early Thursday morning.
A warming trend in projected Thursday through the weekend with
periods of rain showers possible into early next week.
$$
Latest Forecaster's Discussion:
669
FXUS61 KCTP 251929
AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
329 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
*Breezy conditions will accompany below normal temperatures
through Thursday with clouds/snow showers expected Wednesday
*Late week warming/milder trend continues into the last weekend
of March
*Periods of rain/showers are possible Friday into early next
week within uncertain seasonal March-April transition pattern
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Cloudy skies evident along and north of US-6 this afternoon with
mostly sunny skies farther south. Mid level clouds will
overspread southern PA later this afternoon and evening as
shortwave energy dives southeast from the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley. Clouds are keeping temperatures stuck in the 40s across
the northern tier, while sunshine has allowed deep mixing and
efficient warming farther south where temperatures have made it
into the upper 50s to near 60 this afternoon.
5-8kft mixing heights will continue to promote gusty winds from
the west, which have peaking in the 25 to 35 mph range this
afternoon. The deep boundary layer/dry air mixing sounding
profile has also helped mix down dry air from aloft with min RH
in the 20-30% range across the southern 2/3 of the CWA. The
breezy conditions and low humidity will continue to contribute
to an elevated risk of wildfire spread this afternoon where a
Special Weather Statement remains in effect until 8PM.
Sfc wave passes well to the south of the PA line early tonight
and latest hires data indicates a very low probability of light
rain reaching the southern tier/MD line. Upper level trough
pivots into the area late tonight with rising probs for snow
showers downwind of Lake Erie into early Wednesday morning
thanks to an increasingly colder NW flow. Fcst lows range from
25-35F from NW to SE with some upside risk given a fairly steady
light NW breeze and lake stratocu spilling over the Allegheny
Plateau.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday will be the coldest day of the week with a brisk WNW
flow gusting 20-30 mph and max temps 5-10F below the historical
average for the end of March. We continued to edge dewpoints
lower and wind gusts a bit higher vs. NBM. MinRH is fcst to dip
into the 25-35% range across the southern 2/3 of the fcst area
which should maintain at least a slightly elevated risk of
wildfire spread (although tempered to some extent by the cooler
temps). Scattered lake/terrain enhanced convective snow showers
will be most likely north of I-80, though a few could make it
farther inland.
Cold pocket at 850mb suggests increasing cu/stratocu clouds
into the afternoon coincident with the diurnal cycle, perhaps
all the way down to the I-81 corridor. SNSQ parameter lights up
across higher elevations of northern PA on Wednesday,
illustrating the potential for stronger convective snow showers
and brief reductions in visibility. High temperatures in the low
40s all along the I-80 corridor should mitigate the flash
freeze potential and any need for snow squall warnings, but a
long-fused SPS alerting motorists of reduced visibility in snow
showers may be needed.
Surface ridging and an associated low-pwat airmass building
into PA should support clearing skies and cold temps Wed night
into AM Thursday. Min temps will be below climo and have some
downside risk Thursday morning - potentially falling into the
upper teens across parts of west central PA under the sfc ridge
axis/weakest pressure gradient.
A warming trend is fcst to begin on Thursday as the high shifts
off the NC coast. No precip is expected during the day with
highs projected to rebound +5-10F vs. Wednesday into the 45-55F
range or near average for late March. Things start to get
tricky Thursday night with an early Spring baroclinic zone
setting up over the region. The NAM and CMC (to a lesser extent)
are bullish vs. the other guidance in bringing a stripe of QPF
to the northern tier along a stalled frontal zone; temps over
this area appear cold enough for a rain/snow mix if this occurs.
Confidence is low at this point and the pattern uncertainty
grows heading into late week and the upcoming weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure progressing across the area on Friday supports
a trend toward warmer weather from late week into next weekend.
However position of approaching warm front advancing from the
Ohio Valley will likely spread clouds and some showers into the
region later Friday into Saturday.
Latest guidance suggests the boundary will lift north of I-80
and perhaps even north of the NY border, bringing increasing
sunshine and 850mb temps of 7 to 10C south of the front
supporting widespread highs in the 70s. Still some other
solutions have the front stalling over or even south of PA next
weekend, giving a much cooler and wet scenario. We are
optimistic for the warmer scenario at this time, but are still
somewhat splitting the difference utilizing the NBM to do so wrt
temps and POPs.
There is broad model consensus that an upstream surface low will
track over or just north of PA Sunday night and Monday,
supporting a good chance or rain or rain showers.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Stubborn MVFR stratocumulus deck has persisted into the afternoon
across the northern tier including KBFD. Latest GOES imagery
shows the back edge lifting north of the PA/NY border at 18z,
with VFR conds prevailing farther south. Mostly clear skies are
being eclipsed south of I-80 by open cellular cumulus. Increased
mixing occurring with gusty west winds throughout central PA
airfields into this evening, with frequent gusts to around 25kts
until early evening.
An area of weak low pressure will likely pass south of PA
tonight. The bulk of current model guidance keeps any
precipitation or cig reductions from this system south of the PA
border. During the morning on Wednesday and into the afternoon,
scattered to numerous convective snow showers will break out
across the northwest mountains and drift southeast. MVFR
ceilings are likely at BFD with VFR at all other airfields.
Brief reductions in visibility to IFR are possible, especially
at BFD, in any snow showers that pass over the airport.
Outlook...
Wed PM - Thu...No sig wx expected.
Fri...PM rain/low cigs possible, mainly N Mtns.
Sat...Rain/low cigs possible, mainly N Mtns.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Tracking 3rd driest year-to-date at Harrisburg with with total
precipitation of 4.69" through March 24th. No precipitation is
forecast through Thursday and chances remain low into the
weekend.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl/Banghoff
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl/Banghoff
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/Banghoff
LONG TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald
AVIATION...DeVoir/Fitzgerald/Gartner
CLIMATE...Steinbugl
Latest Public Information Statement:
819
NOUS41 KCTP 182034
PNSCTP
PAZ019-045-190045-
Public Information Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
434 PM EDT Tue Mar 18 2025
...NWS Damage Survey for 03/16/2025 Centre and Clinton County
Downburst Wind Events...
On the afternoon of Sunday, March 16th, a line of thunderstorms raced
across portions of western and central Pennsylvania, producing widespread
wind damage to portions of Centre and Clinton Counties. This included
uprooted and snapped trees, downed power lines, and sporadic structural
damage. Survey crews investigated areas of concentrated damage on March
17th with notable results included below.
.Bellefonte Downburst...
Rating: TSTM/Wind
Estimated Peak Wind: 100 mph
Path Length /statute/: 3.3 miles
Path Width /maximum/: 0.5 miles
Fatalities: 0
Injuries: 0
Start Date: 03/16/2025
Start Time: 03:01 PM EDT
Start Location: Bellefonte / Centre County / PA
Start Lat/Lon: 40.9117 / -77.771
End Date: 03/16/2025
End Time: 03:06 PM EDT
End Location: 3 NNE Bellefonte / Centre County / PA
End Lat/Lon: 40.9444 / -77.7286
Survey Summary:
Just after 3PM on Sunday, March 16th, a strong squall line
slammed through downtown Bellefonte, knocking down numerous trees
and power lines. Notable tree and power line damage was observed
near Saint Johns Cemetery on N Bishop Street and Union Cemetery
on E High Street. Sporadic tree damage was observed throughout
downtown Bellefonte and resulted in extensive power outages that
lasted over 24 hours for many residents.
The strong winds moved east of downtown Bellefonte and damaged a
structure housing 30 pigs on Scott Avenue and knocked down several trees.
More significant damage occurred in the 800 block of Jacksonville Road
where the support beams for a large garage were lifted up and
shifted about 15 feet downwind, resulting in a collapse of the
garage and total structural failure. Tin and other debris from
the garage were thrown upwards of 100 yards downstream along with
knocking down several pine trees to the northeast as the
downburst crossed Jacksonville Rd. A very large tree fell on an
SUV and another house had a tree fall on it farther east on
Jacksonville Rd. Sporadic tree damage continued along Jacksonville
Rd and Lyonstown Road as the strong winds moved east. The end of
the wind damage occurred just north of I-80 at the I-99/US-220 &
I-80 interchange, where dozens of trees were uprooted or snapped
off.
The National Weather Service in State College would like to thank the
Centre County Emergency Management Agency for their guidance and
assistance in completing this survey.
.Beech Creek Downburst...
Rating: TSTM/Wind
Estimated Peak Wind: 100 mph
Path Length /statute/: 0.6 miles
Path Width /maximum/: 300 yards
Fatalities: 0
Injuries: 0
Start Date: 03/16/2025
Start Time: 03:14 PM EDT
Start Location: 1 WNW Beech Creek / Clinton County / PA
Start Lat/Lon: 41.0814 / -77.6009
End Date: 03/16/2025
End Time: 03:15 PM EDT
End Location: 1 NW Beech Creek / Clinton County / PA
End Lat/Lon: 41.0902 / -77.5981
Survey Summary:
A line of thunderstorms producing damaging winds continued moving
east and northeast into Clinton County during the mid afternoon
hours of Sunday, March 16th. The most intense damage was found
northwest of Beech Creek, beginning along Monument Orviston Road
where several large trees fell onto a garage. The downburst
tracked northeast crossing Laurel Run Road and uprooting additional
pine trees while also producing damage to multiple roofs. Extensive pine
tree damage was also observed farther northeast across Berry Road
where several trunks were snapped and uprooted.
The National Weather Service in State College would like to thank the
Clinton County Department of Emergency Services for their guidance and
assistance in completing this survey.
&&
NOTE:
The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to
change pending final review of the events and publication in
NWS Storm Data.
$$
JB/JG
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