Graphical Hydro Meteorological Discussion

729
FXAK68 PAFC 160125
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
425 PM AKST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Tuesday morning)...

It has been a beautiful day across much of Southcentral Alaska
today, with the exception of some low stratus and fog lingering in
the Copper River Valley. Gusty gap winds along the coast will
ease slightly through this evening as a Gulf low pulls south, but
revamp again for early tomorrow morning when a weak surface low
briefly forms just south of Prince William Sound. An potent upper
level trough driving in from the northwest will allow for
snowfall along and east of the Richardson, Edgerton, and Tok Cut-
Off highways tonight and tomorrow morning. The highest amounts
look to fall along the Edgerton with up to 6 inches between
Chitina and McCarthy.

Our attention then turns to a strong low pressure system moving
into the Bering Sea tomorrow, sending a trough over Southcentral
Alaska through Monday night. Light snowfall is possible as the
initial front moves over the Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage bowl, and
the Mat- Su Valley Sunday evening and night. Downsloping in
locations directly in the lee of mountains will likely limit
precipitation Monday morning before a more significant wave of
precipitation moves through during the day on Monday. Most of the
Cook Inlet region could see 1 to 3 inches of snow while favorable
flow and lingering moisture into Tuesday will allow higher snow
totals in the Susitna Valley. This system kicks off a very active
pattern for southern Alaska through much of the next week.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 & 2)...

An occluded low remains anchored over the western Bering this
afternoon with a strong front extending southward through the
Central/Eastern Aleutians into the North Pacific. Gusty southerly
winds will linger into tonight from the Pribilof Islands down to
Atka as the front makes slow eastward progress.

Even further east, a blanket of low stratus and fog has been
persisting across Southwest Alaska through much of the day today.
On the east side of the Kuskokwim Mountains from Sleetmute down to
King Salmon ceilings have been down to around 2000 ft. Coastal
locations near Dillingham have experienced areas of fog during the
morning hours. On the west side of the Kuskokwim Mountains
ceilings have been lower, ranging from 400 to 800 ft. Bethel`s
visibility, in particular, has only recently gone up from a 1/2
mile to 2 miles. Through the rest of the evening hours into
tonight a front will clip the YK Delta with southeasterly winds
helping to break up any remaining fog. The approach of a strong
low into the eastern Bering on Sunday will see winds increase
further over the latter half of the day, which has been the focus
of the Southwest Alaska forecast for the past several days.

A winter weather advisory for snow and blowing snow is in effect
early Sunday morning through early Monday morning. As the
aforementioned low skirts west of Nunivak Island, scattered snow
showers are expected to develop along with increasing winds
gusting from 35 to 45 mph. This will promote periods of reduced
visibility of one half mile due to blowing snow. As the low
continues northward through Saturday night, southerly flow will
see temperatures warm to or above freezing by Sunday morning. The
threat for blowing snow will come to an end at that time. Total
snow amounts will range from 2 to 4 inches from Mekoryuk to
Toksook Bay to Kipnuk. Further inland, conditions will be windy
but to a lesser extent, also with less snowfall. Thus, interior
locations, including Bethel, have been excluded from any winter
weather products.

An extended period of south to southwesterly onshore winds
ranging from 20 to 30 mph will linger in the aftermath of the
departing low for much of the Kuskokwim Delta on Monday. Despite
the lower tide levels, there is still potential for water levels
of 1.5 to 3 feet above the normal highest tide line during the
high tide cycle on Monday morning and again Monday evening. This
will be something to keep a close eye on over the next 24 hours,
and a coastal flood advisory will be issued if confidence
increases in higher water levels impacting the Kuskokwim Delta
Coast.


-BL

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

By early next week, a broad upper level trough establishes itself
over the Bering Sea with several shortwaves rotating around the
base of the trough, sustaining the active storm track in the
North Pacific and Gulf. The long term begins as a front tracks
across the eastern Bering into Southwest Alaska, bringing small
craft to gale strength winds along the Alaska Peninsula and
Bristol Bay coast. As the front reaches the Southwest coast and
moves inland Wednesday into Thursday, southerly flow likely allows
precipitation to fall as rain along the coast, with snow
transitioning to rain for interior locations in the Kuskokwim
Delta and Bristol Bay.

This will be quickly followed by a stronger low lifting out of
the North Pacific towards the AKPen by Thursday morning, at which
this point deterministic model guidance begins to diverge. The GFS
and Canadian models show a stronger, potentially storm force low
tracking across the AKPen towards the Kuskokwim Delta before
pivoting east into the Gulf, while the ECMWF tracks a weaker low
straight into the Gulf from the North Pacific. Although details in
the overall strength and exact storm track will become more clear
in the coming days, strong southerly flow and plentiful moisture
can be expected regardless of which solution ultimately plays out.
Moderate rainfall and snow at higher elevations is expected along
the AKPen and Kodiak Island for Thursday, with heavy rain at sea
level and heavy mountain snow directed at the northern Gulf coast
Thursday into Friday. As the low lingers in the Gulf, showery and
generally unsettled weather continues in the Gulf and along the
Gulf coast through the weekend, while the deep southerly flow
associated with this system will result in temperatures trending
warmer across southern Alaska.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light north to northeast winds will
persist. A passing upper trough could briefly increase cloud
cover this evening, but ceilings are expected to remain well
within VFR range and above 5000 ft.

&&

$$

761
FXAK69 PAFG 160030
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
330 PM AKST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold and dry conditions continue across much of Northern Alaska
today, with areas of low stratus, patchy fog, and isolated snow
showers. A strong low pressure system remains on track to work
north along the West Coast through the Bering Sea starting Sunday
into Monday, supporting widespread gusty winds, snow, and warming
temperatures. An overlap of gusty winds and snow could lead to
significant reductions in visibility at times. Winter Storm
Watches are now in effect starting late Sunday into Monday for the
Yukon Delta, Norton Sound Coastline, and Seward Peninsula for
gusty winds and snow. A continued active weather pattern is
expected to persist in the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska through
midweek, as a series of low pressure systems and fronts moving
into Alaska help to reinforce warmer temperatures, winds, and snow
chances to finish out the week.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Cold and mostly dry conditions will continue across the Interior
through the weekend, with areas of low stratus and patchy fog,
in addition to isolated snow showers tonight into Sunday
primarily out towards Tok, Northway, and Eagle.

- Highs in the single digits above and below zero with lows in the
single and double digits below zero. Coldest locations mostly
out across the Yukon Flats will see highs in the double digits
below zero with overnight lows bottoming out around 20 to 30
below.

- Southerly winds are expected to ramp up through Windy Pass and
Isabel Pass Sunday night into Monday, with gusts up to 50 mph
expected.

- Temperatures trend warmer Monday into Tuesday as isolated to
scattered snow chances return across much of the Interior.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Cold and dry conditions continue across Western Alaska today,
with areas of low stratus, patchy fog, and flurries.

- A much more active weather pattern ramps up starting Sunday into
Monday and continues through much of next week as a series of
storms in the Bering Sea lift north along the West Coast with
gusty winds, widespread snow, and warmer temperatures.

- Winter Storm Watches are now in effect starting late Sunday into
Monday for the Yukon Delta, Norton Sound Coastline, and Seward
Peninsula for gusty winds and snow. Total snow accumulations
around 2-5", locally higher around 3-8" across the southern
Seward Peninsula.

- Strongest winds Sunday and Monday will remain offshore and at
St. Lawrence Island, where gusts up to 50 mph are possible.
Winds elsewhere along the West Coast will see gusts peak around
20-40 mph.

- Temperatures see a steady warming trend early next week as a
moist and warmer airmass moves in with southerly flow.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Cold and mostly dry conditions will continue across the Brooks
Range and North Slope through the weekend, with isolated snow
showers and areas of fog along the Arctic Coast.

- E/NE winds prevail along the Arctic Coast into early next week,
strongest further west out towards Point Hope and the Lisburne
Peninsula where gusts up to 45 mph will continue.

- Highs in the single and double digits below zero in the Brooks
Range and Arctic Plains to single digits above and below zero
along the coast. Lows in the single and double digits below
zero, with coldest areas bottoming out at around 20 to 30 below.

- Temperatures trend warmer starting Monday into Tuesday as
isolated to scattered snow chances return.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Today through Monday Night.
Early afternoon satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across
Northern Alaska, with areas of low stratus, isolated snow
showers, and patchy fog as a cold and dry airmass remains in
place. Moisture from a low in the Gulf of Alaska will continue to
lift north along the Alcan Border tonight into Sunday, leading to
light accumulations around Tok and Northway up to Eagle. There is
an area of high pressure over the Chukchi Sea and an area of low
pressure over Beaufort Sea, with associated troughing extending
over northeastern portions of the state. This setup will continue
to support gusty winds across the NW Arctic Coast, strongest
around Point Hope and the Lisburne Peninsula where gusts up to 45
mph are expected through the weekend. Another weak low tracking SW
from the NE Arctic Coast Saturday into Sunday will help reinforce
broad NE flow over much of our region, helping to keep a cold
airmass in place across the Interior and North Slope, in addition
to supporting isolated snow showers along the Arctic Coast.

Looking farther south and west, a broad areas of low pressure
around 965 mb has moved into the Southern Bering Sea today as a
ridge of high pressure amplifies over the NE Pacific into the Gulf
of Alaska. This will setup the necessary steering flow for a
strengthening low pressure system to work in between these
features tonight into Sunday, as a 960 mb low lift north through
the Eastern Aleutians into the Eastern Bering Sea. Confidence has
increased on the track and strength of this low, favoring a track
north just off the West Coast for Monday into Tuesday. As this
system progresses north, winds will ramp up across the West Coast,
strongest offshore and at St. Lawrence Island where wind gusts up
to 50 mph are expected. Winds elsewhere along the West Coast will
see gusts peak around 20-40 mph. Widespread snow chances will
build into Southwest Alaska and shift northeast Sunday into Sunday
night, with an overlap of snow and winds leading to localized
blizzard conditions at times.

Winter Storm Watches are now in effect starting late Sunday into
Monday for the Yukon Delta, Norton Sound Coastline, and Seward
Peninsula for gusty winds and snow. Total snow accumulations are
expected to be around 2-5", locally higher around 4-8" across the
southern Seward Peninsula. These watches are likely to be upgraded
to a mix of Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories
tomorrow to capture where impacts are highest. A few caveats to
visibility reductions will be the intrusion of warmer air in out
of the south, but we felt for today it was best to issue the
watches out of precaution as the latest model runs have trended
wetter and a bit colder overall. The placement of the low and
nearby features will ultimately determine what pressure gradient
we are able to get in addition to precipitation rate, and we will
continue to evaluate these trends over the coming days. There are
no coastal concerns with this system, as it will be fairly fast
moving.

Across the Interior, a persistent cold and dry airmass will
remain in place through the rest of the weekend, with coldest
areas seeing lows drop to around 20 to 30 below zero with highs in
the double digits below zero. Low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska
and Southcentral late Sunday into Monday will help to create a
moderate gradient across the Interior Sunday night into Monday
This setup will remain favorable for sub-advisory gap winds
through Windy Pass and Isabel Pass with gusts up to 50 mph late
Sunday into Monday. Snow will build into the Interior southwest to
northeast Monday into Tuesday, with more moderate snowfall
amounts expected across the Western Interior and Alaska Range with
lighter amounts further east out along the Alcan Border.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Tuesday through next Saturday.
As a 970 mb low tracks north along the West Coast and into the
Chukchi Sea Tuesday into Wednesday, widespread snow chances will
continue across much of Northern Alaska with an emphasis on the
West Coast and Western Interior. Strongest winds will remain
confined to the West Coast and higher elevations of the Brooks
Range and Alaska Range, where gusty winds and snow could lead to
areas of blowing and drifting snow, potentially significantly
reducing visibility at times with localized blizzard conditions.

For midweek, we are tracking several more low pressure systems
heading towards Alaska through the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska,
with the overall tracks continuing to favor Southern and Western
Alaska. These systems will continue to reinforce snow chances
through the extended forecast as well as keeping temperatures
trending warmer given cloud cover and broad S/SW flow aloft. Given
that warmer airmass, rain and snow may be possible especially
further southwest along the West Coast. At this time, the Central
and Eastern Interior look to remain drier overall, with better
snow chances building in later in the week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Watch for AKZ820-821.
Winter Storm Watch for AKZ822-823-827.
Winter Storm Watch for AKZ824>826.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-810.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ804.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ805-806-811-812-852-856>858.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-807.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ807-853.
Gale Warning for PKZ811-851-857.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812-858.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816.
Gale Warning for PKZ816-817-854.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ817.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ850.
Gale Warning for PKZ850.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ852.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ854.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
&&

$$

MacKay

218
FXAK67 PAJK 160635
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
935 PM AKST Sat Nov 15 2025

.UPDATE... The 06z TAF issuance. The low over the east central
gulf continuing to track south southeast the shower activity
moving to the coast and near the coast is impacting from
Chichagof Island southward now to Northern Price of Wales Island.
Isolated showers reacting as the develop near the coastline are
indicating Thunderstorms by satellite detection. Have kept much of
the same timing and clearing in the TAF`s. Haines and Skagway are
partially stuck in the none clearing as the northerly flow
reforming in the northern panhandle will see some clouds moving
from NW Canada into the northern panhandle.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 231 pm AKST Nov 15...

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Snow/rain showers across the area expected to diminish this
evening. Possible snow accumulation around 1 inch in extreme
northern panhandle and Yakutat.

- Brief break possible Sunday as ridging builds over the Gulf of
Alaska. Possible fog in some inner channel areas.

- Next front incoming from the W on Monday.

SHORT TERM.../Through Sunday night/ A 990 mb low is currently
twisting its way through the central gulf this afternoon while its
associated front lies north to Cape Suckling and then E across
the far northern panhandle. That front brought some snow to the
northern half of the panhandle last night with morning
accumulations ranging from around 1 inch in the Mendenhall Valley
to up to 6 inches at Snettisham. Snow is still being consistently
observed around Skagway and Haines this afternoon as the front is
still hung up in that area though rates are starting to diminish.
The rest of the panhandle is dealing with post frontal showers,
mainly in the form of rain with temps in the low 40s (exception is
Hyder where cold air lingering in the valley has kept temps
around freezing today). Generally lighter winds around the
panhandle with Lynn Canal and Stephens Passage being the stand
outs with 15 to 20 kt southerly winds.

The movement of the gulf low to the E and S through the night
will eventually cause flow over the panhandle to switch to a more
easterly then northerly direction overnight. Shower activity
should diminish as a result by late tonight. Skagway, Haines, and
Hyder expected to remain cold enough for snow, but with decreasing
shower activity accumulations should only be around a inch or two
at most. Skies are also expected to start showing some breaks in
the cloud cover overnight, starting over the central inner
channels. This could lead to fog developing first over the central
inner channels before spreading to the south late so some patchy
fog has been added to the forecast.

Into Sunday and Sunday night, the forecast is rather quiet with
ridging building over the gulf. Cloud cover will still be
somewhat present over the northern panhandle due to some slight
onshore flow there, but the southerly half of the panhandle will
likely see clearer skies with northerly offshore flow dominate
over the area. The result will be colder overnight low
temperatures Sunday night with many areas likely getting near
freezing. Some fog could also develop again mainly over the
southern panhandle. The next front will just be entering the
eastern half of the gulf late Sunday night so all the wind and
rain will remain well offshore of the panhandle at that point.

LONG TERM.../Monday through Thursday/... The next front moves
into the outer coastline late Monday morning, pushing eastward
over the rest of the panhandle by the afternoon and evening. This
will be followed by more onshore flow lasting through midweek as
upper level shortwaves push through and allow for waves to
continue impacting the panhandle. This overall onshore flow from
the S to SW will bring up temperatures and snow levels across the
panhandle, with 850 mb temperatures increasing to around -4 to -5
degrees C over the northern panhandle from this warmer air
impacting the area. Temperatures will drop overnight to below
freezing in the northern panhandle as well as some lower snow
levels over Haines northward, allowing for some snow overnight and
mixing in the morning for Icy Strait corridor northward as showers
still impact the northern panhandle before the front begins to
push in. This will soon change to rain Monday as the front advects
in warmer air to the not exceptionally cold airmass over the
northern panhandle, as the largely easterly winds and lingering
onshore showers will not really be ideal for getting colder air
into much of the northern panhandle overnight Sunday into Monday.
The only areas seeing snow during the frontal passage Monday will
be the higher elevation areas including the Klondike and Haines
Highways, with snow amounts for Monday being 3 to 5 inches near
the border. The rest of the northern panhandle will see up to 1
inch of accumulation from the light snow showers in the morning,
before transitioning to rain when the front moves in. The outer
coast around Yakutat is expected to get around 1 inch in 24 hours
of rainfall, with between 0.25 and 0.5 inches for the rest of the
panhandle.

Following shortly behind this front will be another quick
shortwave moving through, continuing to bring precipitation
across the panhandle Tuesday morning and lingering longest over
the northern panhandle into Tuesday night. Overall the QPF
expected for Tuesday will be even less for the panhandle, with
less than 0.5 inches for the panhandle as this wave moves quickly
through, and another 1 to 2 inches of snow for the highways.
After this is where models begin to show some lack of agreement,
with the low moving into the southern Gulf Wednesday. The clusters
are not much in agreement, as the GEFS appears to have the low
moving northward closer to the panhandle while the EPS has it
moving more south of Haida Gwaii. So far leaning towards the
grand ensemble`s solution of having the low in between these two
solutions, still allowing for a front to move across the panhandle
but largely impacting the southern half of the panhandle. The QPF
amounts are still expected to be highest across the southern
panhandle Wednesday, with between 0.75 and 1.25 inches in 24
hours expected largely along the southern coastline around PoW,
and decreasing to less than 0.5 inches in the northern half of the
panhandle. This is still expected to be largely rain, with the
highways seeing another 1 to 3 inches of snow in 24 hours
Wednesday. The QPF amounts across the northern panhandle and even
the winds along the coast and inner channels may increase if the
the low tracks more northward, however this solution is only being
shown by 20% of the ensemble clusters, making it more likely to
see the low staying further to the south.

AVIATION...Rain and snow continue to be a headache for the far
northern inner channels, though less so than this morning. For the
rest of the panhandle, showers will continue to diminish over the
area later tonight. Heavier showers capable of bringing gusty
erratic winds and ice pellets down to the surface have been
observed and remain possible, primarily for the central and
southern panhandle through this evening. CIGs range from 1000 to
2000 ft in the northern inner channels to AoA 5000 ft for the rest
of the panhandle. Shower activity will lead to variable CIGs as
well as potentially significant drops in VIS for brief periods.
General improvements are expected across the board as a low in the
gulf continues to move southeast out of the area over the next 24
hours. No significant LLWS expected over the TAF period, through
Sunday afternoon.

MARINE...
Inside Channels: Winds will be switching back and forth between
onshore and offshore as the low in the gulf slides southeast
affecting pressure gradients across the channels. We will be
starting out with onshore south/southeast flow this evening with
Lynn Canal and Stephens Passage having winds up to 15 to 20 kt to
start with. This will switch to lighter N and NE flow late
tonight and Sunday as the gulf low slides south of the area. The
channels then switch back to S/SE flow again late Sunday night as
we start to feel the affects of the next front that will be
approaching from the west. Winds are not expected to be that
intense with 20 kt this evening being the highest expected. Seas
will remain mostly 4 ft or less for most areas with seas up to 10
ft near ocean entrances due to high SW swell in the gulf.

Gulf Waters: With the low in the south central gulf, winds will
generally be from the S and E tonight with the highest winds of 25
kt expected near the low center. Winds start switching direction
from the E to the W Sunday as the low moves out of the area and
ridging builds in. Sunday night into Monday will see the winds
switch again to the S and start to increase to 25 kt as the next
front begins to move in from the W. Expect the highest winds from
this front to be mainly on Monday. Seas are mainly dominated by a
8 to 10 ft SW swell (period 11 to 15 sec) at the moment with low
wind wave giving combined seas of 11 to 13 ft. Seas are expected
to peak this evening around 13 to 15 ft, mainly due to the SW
swell, before diminishing down to 8 ft into early Monday as swell
diminishes down to 4 ft from the SW.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99

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