Graphical Hydro Meteorological Discussion

612
FXAK68 PAFC 251306
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
406 AM AKST Tue Nov 25 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The fog around Anchorage and the Kenai Peninsula is much less
extensive this morning, but there are still areas of it,
especially along Knik Arm and the interior of the Kenai. With
increasing northerly flow at the surface today, this fog should
largely dissipate, though there could still be some patchy fog
near the front range of the Chugach and Kenai Mountains.

An upper level low in the eastern Interior extends into the Copper
River Basin this morning and has brought some more widespread
clouds there. This low will track westward through the day and
should allow those clouds the dissipate as it leaves the area.
Areas of low stratus and patchy is likely to persist, but areas
that do clear out will see temperatures plunge well below zero
tonight and Wednesday night.

A front is pushing into the western Gulf and across Kodiak
Island today. Temperatures for Kodiak look to remain in the mid
30s to lower 40s, keeping any precipitation that falls as rain.
Models have a good consensus on the timing of the front, but
differ somewhat on structure and if the front can spin up a low
along its trough axis. When the front likely arrives to
Southcentral Wednesday afternoon/evening, cross barrier flow and
downsloping in lee of the Chugach will help to keep precipitation
amounts light across the Anchorage Bowl. The windward slopes,
however, could see light snowfall accumulations with rain being
the predominant precipitation type for the Prince William Sound.
The front will then stall out along the coast as a potentially
more impactful system enters the Gulf for Thursday

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

There is little change to the forecast for today as high pressure
remains over the Bering Strait with a couple of weak surface lows
along the Aleutian Chain. Northeasterly offshore flow will
continue across Southwest Alaska today, gusty at times across the
Kuskokwim Delta, before shifting easterly on Wednesday. Winds
across the Kuskokwim Delta will diminish as winds flip, but will
increase in Bristol Bay through Kamishak Gap Wednesday
afternoon/evening. Across the Bering and Aleutians, the pattern
continues with small craft to gale force winds. Gales will
primarily be along the eastern Bering, Pribilof Islands and the
southern Alaska Peninsula today with small craft elsewhere.
Additionally, there is a pocket of storm force gusts north of
Unalaska but remains south of Saint George. Winds will diminish
overnight tonight. The pattern in the Bering/Aleutians will become
benign mid to late this week.

A pattern shift is expected tonight into Wednesday morning as an
elongated upper level low over the Interior moves east to west
across Mainland Alaska, pushing the high pressure ridging further
into Eastern Russia. This will allow a series of shortwaves and
fronts to eventually push north into Southwest Alaska from the
North Pacific. As such, conditions across Southwest Alaska will
become unsettled mid to late this week. A warmer air mass streams
north into Southwest, pushing temperatures from the 0s and 10s up
all the way into the 20s to low 30s for much of the region by
Thursday. A couple shortwave troughs will also move up from the
North Pacific into Southwest between Wednesday and Thursday,
ushering in a returning potential for precipitation. The best
chance for steady snow and rain will initially be focused over
northern Bristol Bay, where southerly flow will support upslope
enhancement near the Kilbucks. Areas of rain and snow could be a
little more widespread with the arrival of the second trough and
attendant low moving up into Southwest for Thanksgiving Day.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Friday through Monday)...


A pattern shift to warmer temperatures and precipitation continues
to be seen in the long range models.

A ridge builds in the Pacific Ocean and slowly moves eastward
through the weekend. On Friday and Saturday, its orientation
in the Pacific Ocean results in southerly flow into the Aleutians
and a more southwesterly flow into Kodiak Island and
Southcentral. This brings warm air advection for the Aleutians
resulting in weekend precipitation falling as mostly rain and
strong southerly winds; especially through the bays and passes.
While a main low rotates well east of the Pribilofs in the Bering
Sea this weekend, numerous lows move over the Aleutians bringing
periods of heavy rainfall and winds to the area. As the high moves
eastward Sunday/Monday, the chances of storms reaching the
Mainland increases though confidence in their exact location and
strength through the Bering Sea is low at this time.

Southwesterly flow into Kodiak Island and Southcentral Alaska
persists this weekend with the greatest chance of precipitation
late Saturday into Monday. Right now, mesoscale disagreement
remains for timing and amounts of the heaviest precipitation from
weak lows moving through from the Pacific Ocean into the Gulf of
Alaska. However, this synoptic pattern indicates a warming trend
for Kodiak Island and Southcentral this weekend and into Prince
William Sound Monday as waves of moisture bring periods of periods
of heavy precipitation and gusty winds with warm air advection to
the region.

-Johnston

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC... Low stratus and patchy fog continue to be stubborn this
morning. However, unlike the past few mornings, visibilities are
not expected to be sustained 1/2 to 1/4 mile but rather more like
2 to 5 miles with isolated instances below 1 mile. Visibilities
will bounce around between VFR and IFR as patchy fog moves in and
out of the terminal this morning. Predominant VFR conditions
should return by late morning today. In addition, a weak front
will lift northward through the Gulf today with flow increasing in
the middle to upper levels out of the south and southeast with
surface winds increasing out of the north this evening. This
should result in VFR conditions with the fog fully dissipated
around the terminal.

&&

$$

593
FXAK69 PAFG 252232
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
132 PM AKST Tue Nov 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure has influenced portions of the Eastern Interior
with light snow and/or flurries through this afternoon, and snow is
also being observed along the eastern Arctic Coast. As high pressure
continues to build in over the Chuckchi Sea and further strengthens
as it moves eastward into the Beaufort Sea, it will bring about
blustery, colder, and drier conditions to much of Northern Alaska
going into tomorrow. Stronger winds will begin to blow tonight into
much of the rest of the week for areas along Dalton Highway and for
the White Mountains, and this will last through much of the rest of
the work week. With this, there could be areas of reduced
visibilities due to blowing snow are possible as are difficult
travel conditions over Dalton, Elliott, and Steese Highway Summits.
A pattern shift will occur for this upcoming weekend, as another
round of storms move into the region. This will continue into early
next week, with relatively more mild temperatures and better snow
chances. These storms will bring warmer temperatures and chances for
heavy precipitation across Northern Alaska. There could also be a
wintry mix, and/or a rain/snow mix for portions of the Southwest
Coast, and lower elevations within the Upper Tanana Valley and
southern Interior, as much warmer temperatures are advected up from
the south. If this occurs, it could make travel tricky due to icy
road conditions.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Light snow is possible in the Yukon Flats, Dalton Highway
Summits, and the White Mountains through this evening.
Accumulations would be from a dusting to a half an inch at best.

- Colder and drier conditions continue to set in through the rest
of the work week. Nighttime temperatures will be in the single
digits to teens below zero.

- Clouds will continue to clear through the work week.
Temperatures decrease further in valley locations under clear
skies as stronger temperature inversions develop. Temperatures
and moisture will begin to increase this upcoming weekend with
an increasing chance of precipitation going into the early part
of next week.

- Increasing northeast winds tomorrow night, and last through
much of the week. Areas of reduced visibility due to blowing
snow are possible as are difficult travel conditions over
Dalton, Elliott, and Steese Highway Summits. A special weather
statement has been issued which highlights these details.

- Stronger winds will begin to increase tonight across the Tanana
Valley, which may allow for some of the locations, such as
Delta Junction, to experience wind gusts for up to 50 mph going
into tomorrow morning.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Near normal temperatures are expected until Thursday night when
we see another push of warm air from the Bering Sea.

- Western Interior Valleys could see below normal temperatures
pushing the teens below depending on the strength of the
inversion that develops.

- Winds shift east-northeast along the West Coast will continue
to increase through tomorrow. Easterly wind gusts 20 to 30 mph
by Wednesday.

- Tomorrow night to Thursday evening could see snow showers in the
Y-K Delta. Accumulations from these snow showers would be up to
2". Thursday evening as warmer air begins to move into the
area, these snow showers could turn into a rain/snow mix.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Low Stratus and light snow will continue across the Eastern
Arctic Coastline through tonight, and then continue to taper off
going into tomorrow morning.

- Conditions will begin to dry out tonight, bringing clear skies
and cooler temperatures. Temperatures will remain near normal
with lows near 0 on the coast and teens below on the arctic
plains.

- Easterly winds across the Arctic Coast will be 20 to 30 mph,
and will hang around for the rest of the week.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
High pressure located to the north over the Arctic Ocean, along with
troughing to the south, has produced a tighter gradient across the
Interior and will allow for strong and gusty winds across the higher
terrain, especially for the White Mountains. Due to this, there
could be some blowing snow concerns along Dalton Highway for
locations which have received more significant amounts of snowfall
recently. Because of this, a Special Weather Statement issued which
highlights all of these details. Weak troughing over the Bering
Strait and an area of low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska is
influencing the West Coast with some light snow showers, and onshore
flow is also providing some light snow across the northeast Arctic
Coast. These snow showers will be tapering off overnight and
conditions will continue to cool and dry across the region
throughout the rest of the week before becoming more influenced by
the approaching trough for this upcoming weekend.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Ensembles have continued to show a strong signal of a broad area of
troughing moving up towards the Bering Sea, with multiple major
shortwaves propagating up towards southwestern Alaska. The upper
level jet with this feature will be tapping into moisture getting
advected up from around 20N, which is producing very high PWAT
values since it is derived from subtropical moisture, and thus is
indicating a much wetter and more mild shift in the pattern going
into this upcoming weekend. Depending on the track of these
associated waves, this could prove to be more impactful for our area
if these lows take more of a westerly track into the Bering Sea,
although nearly all of the ensemble members are now trending towards
a less impactful solution as the overall position of the low has now
shifted further south (and now south of the Aleutian Islands) than
what they were displaying yesterday. A strong ridge positioned over
Siberia is going to help to block this area of low pressure from
getting up into the Bering Sea. Ensembles members have also shown a
slight decrease in the amount of precipitable water for portions of
the Interior, which aligns with the low not getting as far north,
and remaining in the Gulf, with downsloping of the southerly winds
across the Alaska Range, instead of the southwesterly flow pumping
in more moisture and warmer air into the Interior if the low was to
take a more northwesterly track.

Deterministic models have been tightening up a bit with better
agreement as to how the primary major shortwave trough will track as
it approaches the Aleutians going into Friday. The latest 12Z runs
of the ECMWF and GFS have the first major shortwave becoming
occluded as it moves into the Gulf of Alaska, with the main low
along the triple-point slightly undergoing cyclogenesis
(strengthening) as it propagates up from the south and just to the
east of Kodiak Island, with the surface low depending to around
980mb, and the decaying low positioned south of Unimak Island. This
track is going to result in a drier solution for the Southwest
Coast and southern Interior, as we get more downsloped. That
being said, there is still some uncertainty with this, and could
still prove to be impactful for some of the Southwest Coast and
Interior (as models have indicated temperatures over freezing at
the 850 mb level within the southerly flow ahead of the frontal
boundary associated with this system), which may lead to potential
icing concerns for some of the lower elevations. This southerly
flow will also keep conditions more moist, with chances of snow
increasing across all of Alaska going into the early next week as
multiple waves continue to move up into the Gulf through then.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802>804-812.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ805>807-810-850-853-854-
856>858.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817-850-851-854-857-858.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ852.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.
&&

$$

Stewey

562
FXAK67 PAJK 260101
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
401 PM AKST Tue Nov 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Rain for the southern panhandle diminishes on Wednesday as a
system departs.

- Offshore flow is looking more likely for the middle of the
week bringing colder temperatures and clearing skies to most of
the panhandle.

- A dry Thanksgiving Day for most of the panhandle, with the
potential exceptions of the NE Gulf Coast (Yakutat, Elfin
Cove, and Pelican).


&&

.SHORT TERM.../Through Thursday Night/

A pattern change is in the air for much of SE AK. While rain
continues across the southern panhandle as a front moves in, drier
conditions have arrived for the northern half of the area. In the
wake of the front`s departure on Wednesday, these drier conditions
will spill southward, bringing with them a welcome break in the
weather for the Thanksgiving Holiday for much of the area.

The upper level longwave trough which has been moving system
after system into the panhandle, has begun to weaken, with systems
temporarily being redirected away from SE AK. One final shortwave
which is moving into the southern panhandle will stall out and
disintegrate through Wednesday, though the chance of some showers
reaching as far as the Icy Strait Corridor cannot be entirely
ruled out through then. Some patchy fog will form Tuesday night
across the central and northern panhandle as skies in these areas
begin to clear.

As chances of PoP diminish through Wednesday for the southern
panhandle, outflow winds will continue to build, and colder
temperatures are expected to linger through Thanksgiving.
Thanksgiving Day itself will be dry for most locations, with the
exception of Yakutat and portions of the NE Gulf Coast (Pelican
and Elfin Cove) where chances of PoP increase through the latter
half of the day as a warm front sideswipes these areas, though
outflow winds will prevent it from reaching the rest of SE AK.
Clearer skies and said outflow winds will also join forces to
contribute to cooler overnight low temperatures, with lows
dropping into the 20s for many locations, especially those in the
northern half of the panhandle.

Main changes to the forecast were to refine the strength and
timing of the outflow winds (which look to be weaker than
anticipated on Thursday), alongside increasing chances of PoP for
portions of the NE Gulf Coast and Yakutat for Thanksgiving Day.


.LONG TERM...
By Friday a series of disturbances will setup to impact the
region through the start of next week; the first being a weak
shortwave trough at 500mb reaching Kodiak by Friday morning. This
feature will drive a gale force front and some moisture into the
northern gulf and begin breaking down the outflow pattern. The
second feature further upstream in the Pacific, an extensive storm
force low, will tap into equatorial moisture, with the parent
500mb low beginning to steer a weak-to-moderate atmospheric river
toward the northern coast by Sunday and additional fronts. The
primary forecast challenge in the mid-range has been break down of
outflow and timing of subsequent wind shifts allowing warmer
temperatures to push into the Panhandle. These points in question
have drastic implications to precip type at the surface for the
central Panhandle. The published forecast has leaned heavily on
warmer air at the surface, with no snow accumulations for
communities outside of Haines and Skagway. The current forecast
will need to be watched closely over the next 48 hours to see how
cold surface temperatures can become and reassessing timing of
precip and wind shift. Another item to watch is significant warm
air advection Sunday into Monday, where freezing levels look to
rise above 3,000ft for the entire region. Dense and wet snow this
weekend in the mountains is expected, becoming moderate to heavy
rainfall by Monday which could exacerbate river response in the
central and northern region. At this time no significant flooding
is expected.

To sum up, current forecast confidence for the communities along
the Icy Strait corridor is rain/snow mix Friday becoming moderate
to heavy rain Sunday with no snow accumulation. If temperatures
are slightly colder than expected, there could be a period of
wet/heavy snow that impacts Hoonah, Gustavus, and Juneau.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions prevail across the panhandle
this afternoon. The exception is the far southern panhandle where
a frontal band from a low near Haida Gwaii is lowering ceilings to
around 3000 ft at times. Concern for lower vis and ceilings
tonight is mainly for the southern panhandle as a low near Haida
Gwaii sends a front with rain into that area. Areas from around
Sumner Strait southward may see vis drop to 5 to 6 miles and
ceilings drop to 1500 to 2500 ft at times. Areas around Kupreanof
and Kuiu Islands may see some brief drops in ceiling and vis as
well early Wednesday morning if the rainfall makes it that far
north but the chance is only 30 percent at the moment. Expect
conditions to improve into Wednesday as that low weakens. The
northern panhandle will mainly stay VFR with offshore flow
conditions, but I can not completely rule out some fog development
in isolated wind sheltered areas overnight with the associated
drops in ceilings and vis. Gusty north winds have started up in
the north this afternoon due to weak to moderate outflow. Gusts to
25 kt are being observed at Skagway, Lynn Canal, Taku Inlet and a
few other outflow areas. Highest winds from these areas are
expected tonight with gusts as high as 30 kt at ground level
before the low near Haida Gwaii weakens and allows the pressure
gradient to slacken. Some gusty winds from the E and SE are also
being observed in the south due to the front this afternoon (gusts
up to 20 kt at times). The greater concern down there is the
higher winds aloft with E wind to 30 to 40 kt at 2000 ASL. So some
speed and directional low level wind shear may be encountered
across the south through this evening. We have also received some
pilot reports of turbulence in the vicinity of Ketchikan below
3000 ft which could continuing to be encountered through the
evening as well. Winds across the south are expected to diminish
late tonight as the low weakens.

&&

.MARINE...

Outside Waters: Waveheights subside through Tuesday night into
Wednesday, diminishing from 9-14 ft to 7-9 feet, as a decaying
system in the southern panhandle is replaced by strengthening
outflow winds. These outflow winds will be (relatively) on the
lower side, and so while stronger plumes of wind may reach into
the Gulf, expect these to be relatively confined in nature. Winds
begin to strengthen from W to E by Wednesday night into Thursday
as a system moves into the Eastern Gulf before sliding northward


Inside Waters: Strengthening outflow winds through Tuesday night,
with Taku Inlet, and other outflow areas increasing to 20 to 25
kt by Tuesday night and may reach 30 kt in Lynn Canal by Wed
night. Clarence Strait will experience sharply varying wind
directions through Tuesday night as a low battles the outflow
winds for prevailing flow direction until said low near Haida
Gwaii starts weakening. Seas mainly around 3 to 4 ft Wednesday and
Thursday, though outflow areas and Lynn Canal will see seas of 5
ft. as the winds increase. Outflow conditions weaken by Thursday
night as the pressure gradient goes more parallel.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ641-661-662.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-031-035-036-642>644-651-652-
663-664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...GFS

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