Graphical Hydro Meteorological Discussion

159
FXAK68 PAFC 260205
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
505 PM AKST Tue Nov 25 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A front moves northward through the Gulf of Alaska the next 72
hours bringing warmer air to Southcentral, Kodiak Island and
Prince William Sound.

Fog has dissipated over most of Southcentral this afternoon
as northerly winds brought drier and cooler air to the region.
This northerly flow for the majority of the interior regions the
rest of this afternoon into tomorrow morning will result in
continued cooler air and mostly clear skies. Therefore,
temperatures will drop into the single digits to below zero in
many places across Southcentral; excluding Kodiak Island, the
Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage Bowl and Prince William Sound coastal
areas. Here, temperatures remain in the middle teens to upper 30s
overnight into Wednesday morning; warmest on Kodiak Island.

The front pushing through Kodiak Island today brings continued
rain showers easterly winds through late this week. As the front
moves northward, easterly storm force winds in the Gulf with
northerly winds in Cook Inlet and Shelikof Strait are likely to
intensify to gale force Wednesday afternoon into Thursday evening.
These winds will also increase to gale force strength late
Wednesday evening into late Thursday in Prince William Sound. Rain
will be the primary precipitation type, though accumulating snow
at elevations above 2000 feet is possible by late this week. The
aforementioned easterly winds will allow for efficient downsloping
to occur in the Anchorage Bowl and eastern Kenai Peninsula with
this storm; limiting precipitation amounts.

-Johnston

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Gusty winds and showers associated with a compact low moving
across the southern Bering Sea, near Atka this evening, is
expected to diminish Wednesday afternoon. This low is embedded
within a larger trough over the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula.
Shortwaves are circulating around its periphery and will likely
keep scattered showers across the Bering Sea and Aleutians in the
short term. For southwest Alaska, a relatively quiet pattern with
offshore flow will trend warmer and transition towards periods of
rain and snow for Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim as each wave lifts
north and then west into the Bering.

Southwest Alaska should expect a gradual warm up over the next
few days. Nighttime low temperatures will likely stay near or
below freezing. Precipitation is also expected to spread across
Bristol Bay beginning as early as Wednesday morning with the best
potential near the Kuskokwim mountains. Daytime high temperatures
will warm into the 30s, but it will take some time for the cool
temperatures to erode and precipitation will likely remain snow,
around 2 inches for interior Bristol Bay, and 3 to 6 inches near
the Dillingham area to Aleknagik Wednesday through Thursday
morning. King Salmon however, could warm enough to see mixed rain
and snow or even completely transition over to rain during the
afternoon hours. There is a small chance during the transition
period for precipitation to briefly become a wintry mix of ice
pellets or freezing drizzle. As the shortwave trough continues
across the Kuskokwim delta, temperatures will warm, but will
likely remain at or below freezing over the next several days.
Light snow may develop over the Kuskokwim, but the atmosphere
should be drier and accumulations will likely be around an inch or
less.

Another trough will lift across the area for Thursday and warmer
temperatures should continue for Bristol Bay. King Salmon is
expected to transition to rain in the afternoon while Dillingham
and the interior will be in the mid 30s with a rain and snow mix.
By this weekend, temperatures could top out in the upper 30s and
low 40s in the Bristol Bay area. The Kuskokwim will continue to
stay in the upper 20s to lower 30s. This trend looks to continue
into next week. Meanwhile, cold air and northerly flow will be
pushed over to the western Bering Sea.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Saturday through Tuesday)...

A signal of warmer than average temperatures and periods of heavy
precipitation continue to be seen in the long range model
guidance. Upper level ridging becomes increasingly amplified this
weekend over the Gulf into Southcentral as a deep upper level
longwave trough situates itself over the Aleutians and North
Pacific. The global models do all show a relatively deep surface
low moving northward from the North Pacific and tracking generally
north to northeastward as it enters the western Gulf. The exact
placement of the upper trough/ridge will be key in storm track,
where fundamental differences in the track of the low can have
huge implications on what kind/levels of impacts areas from the
Alaska Peninsula to Kenai Peninsula will see from this system. As
the low draws moisture in from the south, there will be a fair
amount of warm advection moving across parts of the Southcentral
coast and for some areas inland. It is possible some areas at sea
level warm above freezing for a time this weekend, which
introduces the chance of mixed precipitation types and even plain
rain for some areas, which could cause some travel issues. Snow
levels will also be increasing this weekend as well with
anomalously warm temperatures. Heavy precipitation looks to be the
main hazard for now this weekend, with much less confidence on
winds being impactful.

-AM

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions expected through at least 18-21Z Wednesday
as mid and upper level cloud cover moves in from the south. Fog
and low cloud potential overnight remains low as cooler and drier
northerly flow persists and cloud cover increases. Models are
hinting as the potential for some scattered IFR/MVFR ceilings to
develop after 18Z, but as easterly cross barrier flow over the
Chugach Mountains increases Wednesday afternoon and evening, any
lower ceilings should be brief.

&&


$$

593
FXAK69 PAFG 252232
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
132 PM AKST Tue Nov 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure has influenced portions of the Eastern Interior
with light snow and/or flurries through this afternoon, and snow is
also being observed along the eastern Arctic Coast. As high pressure
continues to build in over the Chuckchi Sea and further strengthens
as it moves eastward into the Beaufort Sea, it will bring about
blustery, colder, and drier conditions to much of Northern Alaska
going into tomorrow. Stronger winds will begin to blow tonight into
much of the rest of the week for areas along Dalton Highway and for
the White Mountains, and this will last through much of the rest of
the work week. With this, there could be areas of reduced
visibilities due to blowing snow are possible as are difficult
travel conditions over Dalton, Elliott, and Steese Highway Summits.
A pattern shift will occur for this upcoming weekend, as another
round of storms move into the region. This will continue into early
next week, with relatively more mild temperatures and better snow
chances. These storms will bring warmer temperatures and chances for
heavy precipitation across Northern Alaska. There could also be a
wintry mix, and/or a rain/snow mix for portions of the Southwest
Coast, and lower elevations within the Upper Tanana Valley and
southern Interior, as much warmer temperatures are advected up from
the south. If this occurs, it could make travel tricky due to icy
road conditions.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Light snow is possible in the Yukon Flats, Dalton Highway
Summits, and the White Mountains through this evening.
Accumulations would be from a dusting to a half an inch at best.

- Colder and drier conditions continue to set in through the rest
of the work week. Nighttime temperatures will be in the single
digits to teens below zero.

- Clouds will continue to clear through the work week.
Temperatures decrease further in valley locations under clear
skies as stronger temperature inversions develop. Temperatures
and moisture will begin to increase this upcoming weekend with
an increasing chance of precipitation going into the early part
of next week.

- Increasing northeast winds tomorrow night, and last through
much of the week. Areas of reduced visibility due to blowing
snow are possible as are difficult travel conditions over
Dalton, Elliott, and Steese Highway Summits. A special weather
statement has been issued which highlights these details.

- Stronger winds will begin to increase tonight across the Tanana
Valley, which may allow for some of the locations, such as
Delta Junction, to experience wind gusts for up to 50 mph going
into tomorrow morning.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Near normal temperatures are expected until Thursday night when
we see another push of warm air from the Bering Sea.

- Western Interior Valleys could see below normal temperatures
pushing the teens below depending on the strength of the
inversion that develops.

- Winds shift east-northeast along the West Coast will continue
to increase through tomorrow. Easterly wind gusts 20 to 30 mph
by Wednesday.

- Tomorrow night to Thursday evening could see snow showers in the
Y-K Delta. Accumulations from these snow showers would be up to
2". Thursday evening as warmer air begins to move into the
area, these snow showers could turn into a rain/snow mix.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Low Stratus and light snow will continue across the Eastern
Arctic Coastline through tonight, and then continue to taper off
going into tomorrow morning.

- Conditions will begin to dry out tonight, bringing clear skies
and cooler temperatures. Temperatures will remain near normal
with lows near 0 on the coast and teens below on the arctic
plains.

- Easterly winds across the Arctic Coast will be 20 to 30 mph,
and will hang around for the rest of the week.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
High pressure located to the north over the Arctic Ocean, along with
troughing to the south, has produced a tighter gradient across the
Interior and will allow for strong and gusty winds across the higher
terrain, especially for the White Mountains. Due to this, there
could be some blowing snow concerns along Dalton Highway for
locations which have received more significant amounts of snowfall
recently. Because of this, a Special Weather Statement issued which
highlights all of these details. Weak troughing over the Bering
Strait and an area of low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska is
influencing the West Coast with some light snow showers, and onshore
flow is also providing some light snow across the northeast Arctic
Coast. These snow showers will be tapering off overnight and
conditions will continue to cool and dry across the region
throughout the rest of the week before becoming more influenced by
the approaching trough for this upcoming weekend.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Ensembles have continued to show a strong signal of a broad area of
troughing moving up towards the Bering Sea, with multiple major
shortwaves propagating up towards southwestern Alaska. The upper
level jet with this feature will be tapping into moisture getting
advected up from around 20N, which is producing very high PWAT
values since it is derived from subtropical moisture, and thus is
indicating a much wetter and more mild shift in the pattern going
into this upcoming weekend. Depending on the track of these
associated waves, this could prove to be more impactful for our area
if these lows take more of a westerly track into the Bering Sea,
although nearly all of the ensemble members are now trending towards
a less impactful solution as the overall position of the low has now
shifted further south (and now south of the Aleutian Islands) than
what they were displaying yesterday. A strong ridge positioned over
Siberia is going to help to block this area of low pressure from
getting up into the Bering Sea. Ensembles members have also shown a
slight decrease in the amount of precipitable water for portions of
the Interior, which aligns with the low not getting as far north,
and remaining in the Gulf, with downsloping of the southerly winds
across the Alaska Range, instead of the southwesterly flow pumping
in more moisture and warmer air into the Interior if the low was to
take a more northwesterly track.

Deterministic models have been tightening up a bit with better
agreement as to how the primary major shortwave trough will track as
it approaches the Aleutians going into Friday. The latest 12Z runs
of the ECMWF and GFS have the first major shortwave becoming
occluded as it moves into the Gulf of Alaska, with the main low
along the triple-point slightly undergoing cyclogenesis
(strengthening) as it propagates up from the south and just to the
east of Kodiak Island, with the surface low depending to around
980mb, and the decaying low positioned south of Unimak Island. This
track is going to result in a drier solution for the Southwest
Coast and southern Interior, as we get more downsloped. That
being said, there is still some uncertainty with this, and could
still prove to be impactful for some of the Southwest Coast and
Interior (as models have indicated temperatures over freezing at
the 850 mb level within the southerly flow ahead of the frontal
boundary associated with this system), which may lead to potential
icing concerns for some of the lower elevations. This southerly
flow will also keep conditions more moist, with chances of snow
increasing across all of Alaska going into the early next week as
multiple waves continue to move up into the Gulf through then.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802>804-812.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ805>807-810-850-853-854-
856>858.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817-850-851-854-857-858.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ852.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.
&&

$$

Stewey

562
FXAK67 PAJK 260101
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
401 PM AKST Tue Nov 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Rain for the southern panhandle diminishes on Wednesday as a
system departs.

- Offshore flow is looking more likely for the middle of the
week bringing colder temperatures and clearing skies to most of
the panhandle.

- A dry Thanksgiving Day for most of the panhandle, with the
potential exceptions of the NE Gulf Coast (Yakutat, Elfin
Cove, and Pelican).


&&

.SHORT TERM.../Through Thursday Night/

A pattern change is in the air for much of SE AK. While rain
continues across the southern panhandle as a front moves in, drier
conditions have arrived for the northern half of the area. In the
wake of the front`s departure on Wednesday, these drier conditions
will spill southward, bringing with them a welcome break in the
weather for the Thanksgiving Holiday for much of the area.

The upper level longwave trough which has been moving system
after system into the panhandle, has begun to weaken, with systems
temporarily being redirected away from SE AK. One final shortwave
which is moving into the southern panhandle will stall out and
disintegrate through Wednesday, though the chance of some showers
reaching as far as the Icy Strait Corridor cannot be entirely
ruled out through then. Some patchy fog will form Tuesday night
across the central and northern panhandle as skies in these areas
begin to clear.

As chances of PoP diminish through Wednesday for the southern
panhandle, outflow winds will continue to build, and colder
temperatures are expected to linger through Thanksgiving.
Thanksgiving Day itself will be dry for most locations, with the
exception of Yakutat and portions of the NE Gulf Coast (Pelican
and Elfin Cove) where chances of PoP increase through the latter
half of the day as a warm front sideswipes these areas, though
outflow winds will prevent it from reaching the rest of SE AK.
Clearer skies and said outflow winds will also join forces to
contribute to cooler overnight low temperatures, with lows
dropping into the 20s for many locations, especially those in the
northern half of the panhandle.

Main changes to the forecast were to refine the strength and
timing of the outflow winds (which look to be weaker than
anticipated on Thursday), alongside increasing chances of PoP for
portions of the NE Gulf Coast and Yakutat for Thanksgiving Day.


.LONG TERM...
By Friday a series of disturbances will setup to impact the
region through the start of next week; the first being a weak
shortwave trough at 500mb reaching Kodiak by Friday morning. This
feature will drive a gale force front and some moisture into the
northern gulf and begin breaking down the outflow pattern. The
second feature further upstream in the Pacific, an extensive storm
force low, will tap into equatorial moisture, with the parent
500mb low beginning to steer a weak-to-moderate atmospheric river
toward the northern coast by Sunday and additional fronts. The
primary forecast challenge in the mid-range has been break down of
outflow and timing of subsequent wind shifts allowing warmer
temperatures to push into the Panhandle. These points in question
have drastic implications to precip type at the surface for the
central Panhandle. The published forecast has leaned heavily on
warmer air at the surface, with no snow accumulations for
communities outside of Haines and Skagway. The current forecast
will need to be watched closely over the next 48 hours to see how
cold surface temperatures can become and reassessing timing of
precip and wind shift. Another item to watch is significant warm
air advection Sunday into Monday, where freezing levels look to
rise above 3,000ft for the entire region. Dense and wet snow this
weekend in the mountains is expected, becoming moderate to heavy
rainfall by Monday which could exacerbate river response in the
central and northern region. At this time no significant flooding
is expected.

To sum up, current forecast confidence for the communities along
the Icy Strait corridor is rain/snow mix Friday becoming moderate
to heavy rain Sunday with no snow accumulation. If temperatures
are slightly colder than expected, there could be a period of
wet/heavy snow that impacts Hoonah, Gustavus, and Juneau.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions prevail across the panhandle
this afternoon. The exception is the far southern panhandle where
a frontal band from a low near Haida Gwaii is lowering ceilings to
around 3000 ft at times. Concern for lower vis and ceilings
tonight is mainly for the southern panhandle as a low near Haida
Gwaii sends a front with rain into that area. Areas from around
Sumner Strait southward may see vis drop to 5 to 6 miles and
ceilings drop to 1500 to 2500 ft at times. Areas around Kupreanof
and Kuiu Islands may see some brief drops in ceiling and vis as
well early Wednesday morning if the rainfall makes it that far
north but the chance is only 30 percent at the moment. Expect
conditions to improve into Wednesday as that low weakens. The
northern panhandle will mainly stay VFR with offshore flow
conditions, but I can not completely rule out some fog development
in isolated wind sheltered areas overnight with the associated
drops in ceilings and vis. Gusty north winds have started up in
the north this afternoon due to weak to moderate outflow. Gusts to
25 kt are being observed at Skagway, Lynn Canal, Taku Inlet and a
few other outflow areas. Highest winds from these areas are
expected tonight with gusts as high as 30 kt at ground level
before the low near Haida Gwaii weakens and allows the pressure
gradient to slacken. Some gusty winds from the E and SE are also
being observed in the south due to the front this afternoon (gusts
up to 20 kt at times). The greater concern down there is the
higher winds aloft with E wind to 30 to 40 kt at 2000 ASL. So some
speed and directional low level wind shear may be encountered
across the south through this evening. We have also received some
pilot reports of turbulence in the vicinity of Ketchikan below
3000 ft which could continuing to be encountered through the
evening as well. Winds across the south are expected to diminish
late tonight as the low weakens.

&&

.MARINE...

Outside Waters: Waveheights subside through Tuesday night into
Wednesday, diminishing from 9-14 ft to 7-9 feet, as a decaying
system in the southern panhandle is replaced by strengthening
outflow winds. These outflow winds will be (relatively) on the
lower side, and so while stronger plumes of wind may reach into
the Gulf, expect these to be relatively confined in nature. Winds
begin to strengthen from W to E by Wednesday night into Thursday
as a system moves into the Eastern Gulf before sliding northward


Inside Waters: Strengthening outflow winds through Tuesday night,
with Taku Inlet, and other outflow areas increasing to 20 to 25
kt by Tuesday night and may reach 30 kt in Lynn Canal by Wed
night. Clarence Strait will experience sharply varying wind
directions through Tuesday night as a low battles the outflow
winds for prevailing flow direction until said low near Haida
Gwaii starts weakening. Seas mainly around 3 to 4 ft Wednesday and
Thursday, though outflow areas and Lynn Canal will see seas of 5
ft. as the winds increase. Outflow conditions weaken by Thursday
night as the pressure gradient goes more parallel.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ641-661-662.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-031-035-036-642>644-651-652-
663-664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...GFS

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau