Graphical Hydro Meteorological Discussion

506
FXAK68 PAFC 261415
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
515 AM AKST Wed Nov 26 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A change in the weather pattern is beginning today as a series
of fronts move into the Gulf of Alaska. This is a result of the
upper level flow becoming southerly which will bring in warmer
temperatures through the remainder of the week. The first front is
fairly weak and is already along the north Gulf coast early this
morning. This will begin the warm-up and precipitation will
increase throughout the day there. Another front is making its way
over Kodiak today which will keep in the rain and stiff easterly
winds. Due to the main low complex associated with these fronts
remaining over the AK Peninsula and Aleutians into tomorrow, these
fronts will not plow northward into Southcentral as much as they
will each warm it up a little more and bring in bouts of
precipitation and stronger winds.

With warming temperatures, precipitation type will become a
significant weather challenge both for forecasters and Holiday
travelers. In particular, Turnagain Arm through Turnagain Pass
should see snow as the main precip type the next day or two, but
an increasing chance for rain as the week progresses. Temperatures
along the Seward Highway should warm above freezing by tomorrow,
but temperatures aloft are right at the cusp of that rain/snow
mix. Therefore, there could be areas of rain in places along the
highway with other areas experiencing moderate to heavy snowfall.
This area in the Kenai Mountains is probably the most challenging
part of the forecast so be sure to check on the latest forecast
before traveling through that area the next few days. Lower
elevations of the eastern Kenai Peninsula are much more
straightforward and should see the switch to rain by Thursday
morning.

For the lee side of the Chugach and Kenai Mountains, easterly
winds will allow for efficient downsloping to occur in the
Anchorage Bowl and eastern Kenai Peninsula with this storm;
limiting precipitation amounts.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A series of troughs/fronts are expected to push north and west
into Southwest Alaska and the Bering Sea from the North Pacific
over the next couple of days. Southwest Alaska can be expected to
see a bit of a warming trend, though overnight temperatures will
stay near or below freezing in Bristol Bay and below freezing
elsewhere across the Southwest Mainland. Precipitation is expected
to spread into Bristol Bay this morning, with the bulk of
expected precipitation confined to the Kilbuck/Ahklun Mountains
and Dillingham west to the Western Capes. Precipitation will
likely remain as mostly snow, with accumulations of 3 to 6 inches
possible from Dillingham to Alekagnik through Thursday morning,
and 2 inches or less for inland Bristol Bay. Iliamna and King
Salmon will be the warmest areas, allowing for transitions from
snow to rain and back to snow as temperatures fluctuate below and
above freezing. As such, there is a small chance during the
transition period for precipitation to briefly become a wintry mix
of ice pellets or freezing drizzle.

The trough continues weakening as it tracks into the Kuskokwim
Delta and lower Kuskokwim Valley. While temperatures will warm,
they are expected to remain below freezing. While drier conditions
are expected for both the Kuskokwim Delta and lower Kuskokwim
Valley, brief pockets of light snow showers are possible. Another
trough will lift across the area for Thursday and warmer
temperatures should continue for Bristol Bay. King Salmon is
expected to transition to rain in the afternoon while Dillingham
and the interior will be in the mid 30s with a rain and snow mix.
By this weekend, temperatures could top out in the upper 30s and
low 40s in the Bristol Bay area. The Kuskokwim will continue to
stay in the upper 20s to lower 30s. This trend looks to continue
into next week. Meanwhile, cold air and northerly flow will be
pushed over to the western Bering Sea.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Saturday through Tuesday)...

A signal of warmer than average temperatures and periods of heavy
precipitation continue to be seen in the long range model
guidance. Upper level ridging becomes increasingly amplified this
weekend over the Gulf into Southcentral as a deep upper level
longwave trough situates itself over the Aleutians and North
Pacific. The global models do all show a relatively deep surface
low moving northward from the North Pacific and tracking generally
north to northeastward as it enters the western Gulf. The exact
placement of the upper trough/ridge will be key in storm track,
where fundamental differences in the track of the low can have
huge implications on what kind/levels of impacts areas from the
Alaska Peninsula to Kenai Peninsula will see from this system. As
the low draws moisture in from the south, there will be a fair
amount of warm advection moving across parts of the Southcentral
coast and for some areas inland. It is possible some areas at sea
level warm above freezing for a time this weekend, which
introduces the chance of mixed precipitation types and even plain
rain for some areas, which could cause some travel issues. Snow
levels will also be increasing this weekend as well with
anomalously warm temperatures. Heavy precipitation looks to be the
main hazard for now this weekend, with much less confidence on
winds being impactful.

-AM

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Northerly winds increase today at the terminal but
generally remain below 10 knots and persist through Thursday.
Ceilings are likely to remain above 5000 ft for the duration of
the TAF period. There is potential for increasing wind shear
beginning tonight as southeasterly winds at 2000 ft or higher
begin to increase to 40 knots. This low-level wind shear
potential lasts into Thursday. There are also some timing
differences with a front lifting across the terminal Thursday into
Friday, which introduces increasing chances of overrunning snow
showers as early as Thursday. This leads to increasing potential
for ceilings/visibility to drop to MVFR in passing showers, though
the probability is considered low at this time.

Quesada

&&


$$

763
FXAK69 PAFG 261435
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
535 AM AKST Wed Nov 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure in the Arctic Ocean is bringing strong northeast
winds this morning to the Interior and West Coast of Alaska. As a
weak low pressure rotates in the northern Gulf of Alaska this
afternoon, these winds will continue to strengthen. Temperatures
will remain seasonable across Northern Alaska until we see a push
of tropical moisture by the end of the week. With this push of
moisture, there will be a return of stormy weather to the West
Coast and Western Interior this weekend. These conditions will
make there way into the Eastern Interior by the middle of next
week.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Seaonable temperatures will continue as daytime highs will be in
the single digits, while overnight lows are in the single digits
below 0. These will continue until Friday when we will see
start to see a warm-up from a low in the Gulf.

- Northeasterly winds are picking up along the Dalton Highway
Summits and Yukon Flats. The strongest winds will be along the
Dalton Highway, and they will gust up to 40 mph. These winds
could cause areas of blowing snow along the Dalton Highway,
impacting visibility at times.

- The Tanana Valley Jet has been quicker to strengthen than
forecasted. The strongest winds will be at Delta Junction with
winds up to 50 mph through tomorrow night. The Tanana Valley
Jet has been making it to Nenana this morning, but winds should
remain less than 35 mph.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Near normal temperatures are expected until Thursday night when
we see another push of warm air from the Bering Sea.

- Western Interior Valleys could see below normal temperatures
pushing the teens below depending on the strength of the
inversion that develops.

- East-Northeast winds are ramping up this morning across the West
Coast. Generally these winds will be 30 to 40 mph across much of
the West Coast, however communities that typically see stronger
winds from the east-northeast will see stronger winds. These
stronger winds are expected to begin to weaken tomorrow evening.

- This afternoon we will see snow showers begin to arrive on the
Lower Yukon and Southern Seward Peninsula. These showers today
will favor southeasterly aspects of terrain, before becoming
more widespread across the region early tomorrow morning.
- With the strong winds and snow showers tomorrow, we could see
pockets of reduced visibility.

- Through Friday afternoon we are anticipating 1" to 3" of
snowfall across the Y-K Delta, Southern Seward Peninsula, and
Lower Yukon.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Low stratus and patchy fog is continuing across the North Slope
this morning with the exception of Utqiagvik. High pressure to
the north should help to scatter out these clouds today.

- Temperatures are expected to remain near normal with low
temperatures in the single digits below 0 on the Arctic Coast,
and lows in the teens below 0 on the Plains. A 10 to 15 degree
warm-up is expected Friday night and continue through the
weekend.

- Easterly winds of 20 to 30 mph are possible across the Arctic
Coastline. The chances for these winds will continue until
Friday.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
High pressure is continuing to influence most of Northern Alaska,
bringing east-northeasterly winds, seasonable temperatures, and
generally clear skies. This afternoon the start to the pattern
shift is expected, as an area of low pressure in the Southern
Bering begins to rotate shortwaves into Western Alaska. These
shortwaves are not connected to the main moisture plume that we
are expecting by Sunday. Any snow associated with these
shortwaves will be light, but with the strongs winds that will
still be in the Y-K Delta and the Southern Seward Peninsula we
could see areas of reduced visibility. Convective allowing models
are hinting at the possibility of snow squalls imbedded, however
with low snow ratios and qpf it does not seem likely that we will
see any. Friday afternoon we will see our first push of warmer air
aloft as an upper-level trough moves into Mainland Alaska. This
trough will not bring moisture with it, so chances are low with
this feature. As we move into the extended forecast on Saturday
there is better model agreement compared to a few model runs ago.
There are still stark differences on the fine details of the
forecast, but the picture is being painted. These model solutions
will be discussed below in the Extended Forecast section.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
As we look towards Saturday night there will be low pressure move
into the Gulf of Alaska. This low will send a warm front into the
Interior that will bring very warm 850 mb temperatures and
additional moisture. By Monday afternoon the ECMWF has
850 mb temperatures approaching freezing. This would reflect at
the surface to temperatures in the upper 30s. Now the ECMWF and
GFS have differing solutions with how warm it could get. There is
an arctic cold front that will drop out of the Chuckchi Sea and
into the Interior sometime early next week. The GFS is much
quicker with this feature which limits how much warm air can get
into the Interior, keeping temperatures below freezing. Depending
on which solution pans out will dictate the precipitation type,
the GFS solution would be all snow across Northern Alaska, while
the ECMWF solution introduces freezing rain and rain potentials
across the Southern Interior.

Comparing model precipitation we see vastly different solutions.
The GFS is much drier than the ECMWF/GEM due to the GFS
downsloping most of the moisture. With the GFS most areas in the
Interior and West Coast would see light snow with the initial push
of the warm front on Saturday night, but will then be dry until a
deformation band forms up Tuesday night bringing heavy snow
potential along that band. While the ECMWF/GEM brings widespread
precipitation across the Interior starting Monday and continuing
through the week. With the ECMWF/GEM being warm and introducing
temperatures above freezing there is the potential to see
widespread areas of freezing precipiation or rain in the Southern
Interior. Models continue to struggle with this pattern, and
getting the details correct, but there is still ample concern for
impactful weather in the Southern Interior and Southwest Coast
come next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-804-812-852.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-806-853-854-857-858.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ805-806-810-850-853-854-
856>858.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807>809-855.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-815-861.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817-851.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ817.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ851.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856.
&&

$$

Dennis

199
FXAK67 PAJK 261504
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
604 AM AKST Wed Nov 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Rain for the southern panhandle diminishes on Wednesday as a
system departs.

- Offshore flow is bringing colder temperatures and clearing
skies to most of the panhandle.

- A dry Thanksgiving Day for most of the panhandle, with the
exception of the NE Gulf Coast (Yakutat, Elfin Cove, and
Pelican) Thursday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Through Thursday Night/...
Only minor changes were made to the short term overnight as the
forecast stays largely on track. The weak low pressure system
south of the panhandle continues to move east into BC and
disintegrate, with the associated front periodically bringing
light rain to the southern panhandle. A majority of the northern
panhandle has seen clear skies overnight, with localized areas
such as the Juneau airport seeing patchy fog develop through the
early morning. Many sheltered communities have light winds which
may contribute to the low fog layers, though stronger northerly
winds have persisted through the northern inner channels
overnight. Northern Lynn Canal through Northern Chatham Strait is
currently reaching northerly gusts between 25 to 35 kts, peaking
near Point Couverden with gusts up to 45 kts and flowing west down
Icy Strait and out of Cross Sound.

As the system in the southern panhandle continues to fall apart
and outflow strengthens through the morning, PoPs will diminish
and skies will clear southward through Wednesday. A majority of
the panhandle is still looking to remain clear, cold, and dry on
Thanksgiving, with overnight low temperatures dropping into the
20s up north. A disorganized low in the western gulf is forecast
to send another front into the northern panhandle Thursday night
into Friday, increasing PoPs for Yakutat and portions of the NE
gulf coast (Pelican and Elfin Cove) and attempting to bring some
upper level cloud cover into the northern panhandle. Outflow wind
speeds were brought down slightly into Friday, though still
remaining raised enough to keep the front from pushing more inland
Friday morning.

.LONG TERM...
By Friday a series of disturbances will setup to impact the
region through the start of next week; the first being a weak
shortwave trough at 500mb reaching Kodiak by Friday morning. This
feature will drive a gale force front and some moisture into the
northern gulf and begin breaking down the outflow pattern. The
second feature further upstream in the Pacific, an extensive storm
force low, will tap into equatorial moisture, with the parent
500mb low beginning to steer a weak-to-moderate atmospheric river
toward the northern coast by Sunday and additional fronts. The
primary forecast challenge in the mid-range has been break down of
outflow and timing of subsequent wind shifts allowing warmer
temperatures to push into the Panhandle. These points in question
have drastic implications to precip type at the surface for the
central Panhandle. The published forecast has leaned heavily on
warmer air at the surface, with no snow accumulations for
communities outside of Haines and Skagway. The current forecast
will need to be watched closely over the next 48 hours to see how
cold surface temperatures can become and reassessing timing of
precip and wind shift. Another item to watch is significant warm
air advection Sunday into Monday, where freezing levels look to
rise above 3,000ft for the entire region. Dense and wet snow this
weekend in the mountains is expected, becoming moderate to heavy
rainfall by Monday which could exacerbate river response in the
central and northern region. At this time no significant flooding
is expected.

To sum up, current forecast confidence for the communities along
the Icy Strait corridor is rain/snow mix Friday becoming moderate
to heavy rain Sunday with no snow accumulation. If temperatures
are slightly colder than expected, there could be a period of
wet/heavy snow that impacts Hoonah, Gustavus, and Juneau.

&&

.AVIATION.../
General VFR to upper end MVFR flight conditions with CIGS AoA
3000ft across the N panhandle this morning from decaying upper
wave in the N Gulf in combination with a weakening low moving NE
over Haida Gwaii.

North panhandle TAF sites: Icy Strait corridor and northward,
including Juneau, VFR flight conditions will continue with CIGS
AoA 4000ft. General overland winds across the N panhandle TAF
sites should remain around 10kts or less with an isolated gust up
to 20kts. Strongest winds will be at Skagway and Haines through
the afternoon, sustained up to 15kts with gusts up to 25kts by 06z
this evening. No major LLWS concerns, but anticipating weak
mountain wave wind development from NE to E winds aloft and
increased surface winds near gap wind prone areas like Taku Inlet
continuing through Wednesday.

South panhandle TAF sites: A weakening low will dissipate over
the Dixon entrance through 20z this afternoon, keeping
intermittent rain and MVFR ceilings around 2500 to 2500ft near
Ketchikan and Klawock through late Wednesday afternoon. Expecting
Ketchikan and Wrangell to hang onto MVFR conditions a bit longer
as the low gradually lingers NE. Better conditions expected
further northward towards Sitka, and Petersburg, with low-end VFR
flight conditions AoA 4500ft gradually scattering out into the
late afternoon. No major LLWS concerns, but winds aloft will be
variable through the afternoon around 15 kts as the low
dissipates. Surface winds near gap wind prone areas like the
Stikine Delta near Wrangell will remain elevated through
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside: Wind speeds decreasing into Wednesday night before a
disorganized front in the central gulf brings southeasterly strong
breezes to near gale force sustained winds (22 to 33 kts) with
gale force gusts (34 to 40 kts) to the northern gulf into
Thursday. Wave heights of 7 to 9 feet continue to diminish into
Thursday before increasing to 11 to 14 ft with the next front.
Outflow winds coming out of channel entrances may stay relatively
elevated up to fresh breezes (17 to 21 kts) through Thursday.

Inside: Outflow winds continue to blow through the channels
overnight into Wednesday, bringing fresh breezes (17 to 21 kts)
with areas of strong breezes (22 to 27 kts) out of Lynn Canal,
Taku Inlet, and other outflow areas. Isolated areas of the
panhandle such as Point Couverden have seen periods of near gale
force sustained winds overnight, though strongest winds will
decrease to moderate to fresh sustained breezes (11 to 21 kts)
with weakening outflow through mid week. Wave heights around 3 to
4 ft will also diminish to 2 to 3 ft into Thursday, though areas
of strong outflow and channel entrances may still see heights
around 5 ft through Thursday morning. Outflow will continue to
weaken through Thursday night as the pressure gradient begins to
turn.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...ZTK

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