Graphical Hydro Meteorological Discussion

344
FXAK68 PAFC 271452
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
552 AM AKST Thu Nov 27 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Saturday)...

A mixed bag of wintry and not-so-wintry precipitation continues for
the Kenai Peninsula and elsewhere across Southcentral Alaska. Latest
radar and satellite imagery shows a front moving north across the
Gulf of Alaska, with precipitation pushing across the Kenai.
Temperatures have warmed significantly overnight, with most
locations along the road system of the southern half of the
Peninsula a few degrees above freezing. Spots around
Soldotna/Sterling, along with Hope and Turnagain Pass remain a few
degrees colder. Several inches of snow accumulation is likely today
for the pass, though possibly melting at times as temperatures
hovering near or just above freezing. Elsewhere, freezing rain
becoming rain is likely. At this point, it appears the window for
rain to fall below freezing should be short in most instances,
therefore limiting ice accretion. Regardless, any ice accumulation
can result in slick conditions.

Aside from a slight warming, the weather will remain rather status
quo today. Anchorage and portions of the western Kenai will likely
remain largely downsloped. Should any precip make it into town in
Anchorage, it may fall as very light rain or snow, with the former
being more likely across the Hillside... closer to the warming
easterly winds.

Precipitation will begin to diminish overnight, with somewhat cooler
air filtering back in to the area. Precipitation may changeover back
to snow in areas marginally conducive for snow during the day. An
open shortwave tracking off to the northeast on Friday may bring
some light snow to Anchorage and the surrounding Cook Inlet region
into the Mat-Su. Accumulations will be on the lighter side-
generally less than inch.

Another front and significant push of warm air and moisture moves
back into the Kenai on Saturday. This looks similar to today and may
be a close repeat to today/yesterday where warm southeast flow will
bring rain to lower elevations of the Kenai, and snow to Turnagain
Pass and higher elevations. Given lack of preceding cold air with
this event, unlike the current one, freezing rain threat appears
minimal at this time.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Gusty winds are expected to peak early this morning across
portions of interior Bristol Bay as winds filter through Kamishak
Gap. Winds gusting 25 to 35 mph through Iliamna, Koliganek and New
Stuyahok will continue through this morning and gradually
diminishing late this morning. Light snow continues to be
favorable for Dillingham and areas west and north today, with
occasional transitions to a rain/snow mix or briefly all rain.
The warmer trend will continue through the end of this week, with
daytime temperatures in Bristol Bay increasing into the mid 30`s
or low 40`s (Iliamna to King Salmon). Elsewhere across the
Southwest Mainland will stay below freezing, with temperatures in
the mid to upper 20`s. Overnight temperatures will drop back below
freezing in Bristol Bay, allowing for potential periods of
freezing rain during transitions between rain and snow. By this
time, however, precipitation should be winding down and coming to
an end.

The next weather system will arrive to the Aleutians late Friday
into Saturday. A North Pacific low will bring a broad front into
the Aleutian Chain with scattered showers and gusty winds for what
will likely be the duration of the weekend. The front and
associated precipitation reaches the Pribilof Islands Saturday
afternoon while precipitation moves into Southwest Alaska Saturday
night/early Sunday morning.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Sunday through Wednesday)...

The Long Term Forecast starts off with continued warm air being
advected northwards from the North Pacific due to a North Pacific
low south of the Aleutians. The North Pacific low will also allow
for widespread precipitation to affect the Aleutian Islands, the
Alaska Peninsula, and the Southcentral Coast including Kodiak
Island on Sunday. The heaviest precipitation is expected in
Southcentral due to a fetch of moisture from the south. Also, the
Western Aleutians will see northerly flow and gale force winds
from the low. The Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay will not see
large impacts with this low and may see light to moderate
precipitation at times with northeasterly winds. The Southcentral
Coast may also see a period of gale force winds as a front moves
into the Northern Gulf.

Monday sees chances for precipitation decrease as the low weakens
and high pressure moves into the Gulf. However, a second North
Pacific low moves up towards the Bering and brings another round
of precipitation and gusty winds to the Aleutians starting Monday
evening and lasting through Wednesday. This time, moderate to
heavy precipitation may make it to the Bristol Bay and the
Kuskokwim Delta. Winds are more uncertain, but gusty northerly
winds may affect the coastal Southwest Mainland as well. These
northerly winds would also allow for much cold air advection,
which would cool temperatures considerably in Southwest Alaska.
Meanwhile, Southcentral will have some potential for precipitation
by Tuesday as the low slowly moves eastward. Uncertainty is
higher for Southcentral, however.

-JAR

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions with northerly winds at or below 10 knots
and ceilings above 5000 ft continue through this morning. Low-
level wind shear continues as well, with southeasterly winds at
2000 ft increasing to around 40 knots. This wind shear diminishes
in the afternoon as southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds likely move
over the terminal through Thursday evening, gusting up to 25
knots and lingering for several hours before returning to light
northerly winds. At the same time, a front lifting across the
terminal Thursday into Friday will introduce a low chance of
overrunning snow, rain, or freezing rain showers as early as
Thursday. This leads to increasing potential for ceilings and
visibility to drop to MVFR with passing showers. Precipitation
chances increase as a band of precipitation looks likely to pass
over the terminal sometime on Friday. This would most likely be in
the form of snow, though a wintry mix including sleet and/or
freezing rain is also possible. A period of IFR visibility with
MVFR ceilings is possible on Friday with this precipitation.

Quesada

&&


$$

280
FXAK69 PAFG 272228
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
128 PM AKST Thu Nov 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A slight warming trend expected through Saturday accelerates
Sunday as a low brings warm, moist air to the West Coast and
Interior. Light snow along the West Coast and Western Interior
through Friday. Additional moisture brings additional snowfall to
the Interior and the possibility of wintry mix, rain, and
possibly even freezing rain to the Yukon Delta east through the
Upper Kuskokwim Sunday through early next week.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Temperatures warm through Sunday with highs in the single digits
to teens increasing to the teens to mid 20s. The Yukon Flats
north to the Brooks Range remains colder with highs rising into
the upper single digits.

- Gusty easterly winds through Delta Junction with gusts up to 60
mph through early Friday morning.

- Cloud cover increases from the southwest through the weekend.
Friday night into Saturday sees areas of flurries with a slight
chance for light accumulating snow along elevated terrain in the
Eastern Interior.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Temperatures warm Thursday with highs in the upper teens to
upper 20s and remain warm through early next week.

- Easterly wind gusts 30 to 40 mph along the coast diminish from
the southwest through Friday. Areas from the Seward Peninsula
south diminish first with gusts weakening substantially by
Thursday night.

- Light snow showers from the Lower Yukon through the Southern
Seward Peninsula Thursday move north to the Northern Seward
Peninsula through the Kobuk River Valley Friday and diminish
Friday night. 1 to 3 inches of snow accumulation expected.

- Chances of rain, freezing rain, and wintry mix from the Yukon
Delta east to the Upper Kuskokwim increase Sunday. Confidence is
low for potential ice accumulations. Chances remain through
early next week. A winter storm watch has been issued.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Temperatures in the single digits above and below 0 Thursday and
Friday. Temperatures rise around 10 degrees Saturday and remain
warmer through at least Monday.

- Mostly clear conditions Thursday and Friday. Isolated pockets of
low stratus and fog still linger.

- Easterly wind gusts 20 to 30 mph across the Arctic Coastline
Thursday diminish Friday. Gustier conditions west of Point
Barrow.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
For Thursday through Sunday.
At the start of the forecast period, Thursday, the overall pattern
is dominated by a strong 547 decameter Arctic high off the
eastern North Slope and a 515 decameter low over eastern Siberia.
A building ridge is developing over the Eastern Interior and
another low, around 520 decameters moves through the North Pacific
towards the Aleutians. The Arctic high slowly weakens and moves
to the southeast pushing into the developing ridge. The Siberian
low moves to the north and pulls with it a few shortwaves and a
weaker low across southwestern Alaska towards the Chukchi Sea.
This will bring snow showers to the West Coast Thursday through
Friday. The ridge will keep the Central and Eastern Interior
mostly dry, although some isolated snow showers are possible late
Friday into early Saturday as the ridge weakens.

By late Saturday the low in the North Pacific will have reached
near the Aleutians. This low was able to tap into tropical
moisture, but the bulk of this moisture moves east into the Gulf
of Alaska due to the low disconnecting from the atmospheric river
fueling it. Despite this disconnect, the low remains very warm and
very moist. Areas of rain are quite possible with the low as it
slowly moves north towards Bristol Bay early next week. There
appear to be two main waves of moisture associated with this
system. An initial wave is expected Saturday night into Sunday
with a high chance of rain for the lower Yukon, moderate chances
for the Southwestern Interior, and low chances for the rest of the
Southern Interior. Any rain is expected to freeze on most
surfaces due to recent cold temperatures. Snow is expected from
the Seward Peninsula north. This system is expected to significantly
weaken and eventually break down the ridge over the Eastern
Interior early next week. The second wave is significantly lower
confidence on the area of potential impacts, but could potentially
bring an even greater area of rain to the Interior late Monday
through Wednesday.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
For Sunday night through next Thursday.
At the start of the extended forecast period, Sunday night, the
initial wave of warmer, wetter, weather will have mostly passed.
The next, less certain, wave approaches the state late Monday as
another low moves around the larger low near the Aleutians,
allowing it to pull additional moisture from further south. There
are two main solutions for this system dependent largely on the
strength of a developing high pressure in Eastern Siberia and how
well this second low phases with the first. If the high builds
quickly and the second low phases slightly slower, then most of
the moisture from this second wave will also move east into the
Gulf of Alaska. The Southern Interior will still see warmer,
wetter conditions, but the potential for widespread rain is
reduced. If the high is weaker or the second low phases more
quickly with the first, then the bulk of the moisture will be
further west allowing much of it to get into the Western Interior
and around the Alaska Range. If this happens then above or near
freezing temperatures are likely for much of the Interior along
with the possibility of widespread areas of rain.

Model confidence is still low on these solutions and details. Run
to run consistency within each model is low as well as the
consistency between different models. The potential for
significantly warmer and rainy conditions is very present for the
start of next week with colder conditions following as that
developing high in Siberia moves east. Ice accumulations are
possible, although it is still too uncertain to give any specific
details on quantity and area of effect.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ837.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803.
Gale Warning for PKZ804-856.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-854.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ805.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-808.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809-810-855.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-814.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-860.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816-817.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ852.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853-857.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ853.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ854.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ856-857.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ858.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
Gale Warning for PKZ861.
&&

$$

Stokes

177
FXAK67 PAJK 271906
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1006 AM AKST Thu Nov 27 2025

.UPDATE...Update to include the 18Z TAF issuance.
The forecast remains mostly on track with cold, dry outflow
pattern over the panhandle for today. Fresh to at times
strong wind over the inner channels and ocean entrances. Have
increased winds for Cross Sound and a Small Craft Advisory is
in effect for today.

&&

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Cold outflow winds persist through Thursday

- Drier weather for most of the panhandle through the end of the
week with the exception of the northern Gulf (Yakutat).

- Another system arrives in the panhandle Sunday.

SHORT TERM.../Through Thursday Night/...
Forecast remains on track as the quiet weather pattern persists
through Thursday. High pressure building north of the panhandle
has continued fresh outflow winds through the channels overnight,
with isolated areas near Rocky Island seeing stronger sustained
winds persist through the morning. Strongest areas of outflow
winds are expected to steadily decrease through the day, though
even the weaker areas of outflow will continue to bring cooler
temperatures and drier, more clear weather across the panhandle
Thursday.

Thanksgiving day continues to look dry and clear for a majority
of the panhandle, with the exception being for the northern gulf.
A system in the western gulf is forecast to send a front into the
northeastern gulf coast Thursday night, bringing around a quarter
of an inch of rain overnight. As this front begins to move in
Thursday afternoon, cloud cover will increase across the northern
gulf coast and eventually push into the rest of the northern
panhandle by Friday morning. Dry outflow through the inner
channels will attempt to keep the heaviest cloud cover and any
precipitation out of the interior panhandle, though chance PoPs as
far as Elfin Cove and Pelican can`t be ruled out. This will also
keep high temperatures on the colder side for Thursday, with the
northern interior panhandle seeing highs in the high 20s to low
30s. The rest of the panhandle will see slightly more normal high
temperatures with highs in the high 30s to low 40s, increasing as
you move south. Outflow continues to weaken into Friday morning as
ridging builds over the eastern gulf, though drier weather looks
to remain in the forecast through the weekend. See the long term
discussion for additional details.

LONG TERM...
A weak shortwave will move across the Gulf, bringing a gale force
front over the NE Gulf and along parts of the panhandle into
Friday. Steeper 500 mb ridging over the Gulf will prevent the
waves moving through Friday into Saturday from reaching as far
into the panhandle, rather funneling most of the precipitation up
into the northern Gulf coastline from Yakutat westward. Slight
chance of precipitation moving further east into the rest of the
panhandle, with decreasing PoPs into Saturday morning as the
associated low weakens further and moves northwestward, before
dissipating ahead of the next stronger system approaching. This
first system Friday will largely begin to break down the outflow
and bring in warmer temperatures in the panhandle, with high
temperatures between the high 30s to low 40s expected Friday after
the warm front moves through and brings in warmer air from the
south. The cooler air mass lingering into Friday near the surface
and the lower snow levels across the panhandle will allow still
some snow in the early morning Friday and Friday night with some
mixing mid day, but by the next more impactful system it appears
like the outflow pattern will be disrupted already.

Largely the forecast remains the same for the Sunday system
moving into Monday, with some questions still remaining on how
quickly the warm air will begin to advect into the panhandle and
begin to warm the surface on Sunday. This next system will bring
another front across the panhandle Sunday, along with more warmer
air from the south, bringing maximum temperatures at the surface
up to the 40s across the panhandle into Monday. Not many changes
were made to the QPF amounts expected for this stronger system,
with up to 2 inches in 24 hours expected along the NE Gulf coast
with the heaviest rates of between 0.4 and 0.6 inches in 6 hours
expected Sunday evening into Sunday night. The rest of the
panhandle is expected to see between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of QPF,
with the only snow accumulation being for the highways as snow
levels rapidly rise and temperatures increase into the mid 40s
elsewhere during the day. The Haines Highway near the border is
expected to see less than an inch in 24 hours, while the Klondike
Highway is expected to see between 3 and 5 inches of snowfall
during the Sunday system, with the snow becoming wetter and more
dense Sunday night into Monday morning as snow levels continue to
rise above 3000 ft. While the warmer temperatures are moving into
the panhandle during the day, the colder and drier airmass in
place overnight will still allow for some chances of snow mixing
in Sunday morning, before the majority of the panhandle aside from
the higher elevation locations will transition to rain by around
late morning to midday. No accumulation is expected even with the
snow mixing in during the morning hours, however.

AVIATION.../through Friday afternoon/...
Aside from some lingering low stratus burning off near PAPG this
morning, general VFR flight conditions expected across the
panhandle through the period with increasing mid to high clouds.
For Yakutat, VFR VIS and CIGs through the evening will lower
overnight into the day Friday, becoming MVFR to possibly IFR with
a mix of rain/snow expected. Winds will generally be less than
10kts for the period, however, winds today 10 to 15 kts are
expected for Haines and Skagway, decreasing tonight. No major
Visibility or LLWS concerns through the TAF period, but
anticipating increased winds near gap wind prone areas like Taku
Inlet and Stikine Delta near Wrangell up to 25kts through today.

MARINE...
Outside: Gulf winds have remained steady overnight, with light to
moderate breezes (4 to 16 kts) in sheltered areas along the coast
and fresh outflow winds (17 to 21 kts) coming out of channel
entrances. The central gulf has been seeing fresh to strong
southeasterly breezes overnight, expected to increase through
Thursday as a gale force front moves into the northern gulf.
Strongest winds will stay in the central gulf up to the northern
gulf coast, where they will increase to easterly gale force
sustained winds along the coast west of Cape Suckling. Outflow
winds primarily coming out of Cross Sound and Southern Chatham
Strait will continue to weaken through Thursday afternoon. Wave
heights of 6 to 8 ft will increase to 10 to 15 ft at a period of
10 to 12 seconds in the northern and central gulf as the front
moves through Thursday night, peaking overnight and steadily
decreasing through Friday.

Inside: Northerly fresh outflow winds (17 to 21 kts) continue to
blow through the inner channels through early Thursday morning,
with isolated areas near Point Couverden and out of Taku Inlet
seeing 25 to 30 kts and 4 to 6 ft seas. Winds are forecast to
steadily decrease through Thursday afternoon, with strongest areas
reaching a moderate breeze by Thursday evening. Outflow will
continue to weaken overnight into Friday as the pressure gradient
becomes more parallel to the panhandle.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652-672.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-644-651-662>664-671.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJS
SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM...Contino
AVIATION...DJS
MARINE...ZTK

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