Climatological Perspective of Recent Warmth

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
639 PM CST WED DEC 9 2015 /739 PM EST WED DEC 9 2015/

...ATYPICAL DECEMBER WEATHER FOR CHICAGO THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

ANOMALOUSLY MILD CONDITIONS FOR METEOROLOGICAL WINTER ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...POTENTIALLY VERY WET
WEATHER IS LIKELY TO UNFOLD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND 
AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. THIS IS A LOOK AT THE FORECAST VS. 
DECEMBER CLIMATOLOGY.

------------------------------------------------------------------
CHICAGO

FIVE CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE FORECAST THROUGH
SUNDAY /FROM DECEMBER 9TH-13TH/. 

- THIS WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME WITH FIVE OR MORE CONSECUTIVE DAYS 
WITH 50S IN DECEMBER SINCE 2001...WHEN DECEMBER 2ND-6TH REACHED THE 
50S.

- THIS WOULD BE THE LATEST INTO DECEMBER WITH FIVE OR MORE STRAIGHT
DAYS IN THE 50S SINCE 1971...WHEN DECEMBER 23RD-27TH REACHED 50 PLUS 
DEGREES.


A HIGH OF 60 DEGREES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

- 60 DEGREES OR HIGHER WAS LAST REACHED DURING DECEMBER IN 2012 WHEN 
THE HIGH REACHED 70 ON DECEMBER 3RD.

- 60 DEGREES WAS LAST REACHED THIS LATE IN THE MONTH IN 2008 ON
DECEMBER 27TH WHEN THE HIGH HIT 61.


MULTIPLE PERIODS OF RAIN ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY
INTO MONDAY. OVER TWO INCHES OF RAIN ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS...THOUGH THIS FORECAST COULD SHIFT.

- TWO INCHES OR MORE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THREE DAYS HAS NOT HAPPENED 
IN DECEMBER SINCE 2.06 INCHES FELL ON DECEMBER 4TH-6TH 1999...WHICH 
WAS ALMOST ENTIRELY ALL RAIN.

- OVER TWO INCHES OF PRECIPITATION HAS NOT HAPPENED THIS LATE INTO
DECEMBER SINCE DECEMBER 24TH-26TH 1982 WHEN 2.18 INCHES FELL...WHICH
WAS ALSO ALL RAIN.


OBVIOUSLY THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY SHIFT SOME THROUGH THE COMING DAYS
BUT THE PATTERN FAVORS AT LEAST NEAR THESE VALUES MENTIONED ABOVE. EVEN 
THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS LATER THIS WEEKEND!

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
707 PM CST WED DEC 9 2015 /807 PM EST WED DEC 9 2015/

...ATYPICAL DECEMBER WEATHER FOR ROCKFORD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

ANOMALOUSLY MILD CONDITIONS FOR METEOROLOGICAL WINTER ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...POTENTIALLY VERY WET
WEATHER IS LIKELY TO UNFOLD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND 
AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. THIS IS A LOOK AT THE FORECAST VS. 
DECEMBER CLIMATOLOGY.

------------------------------------------------------------------
ROCKFORD

FIVE CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE FORECAST THROUGH
SUNDAY /FROM DECEMBER 9TH-13TH/. 

- THIS WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME WITH FIVE OR MORE CONSECUTIVE DAYS 
WITH 50S IN DECEMBER SINCE 2001...WHEN DECEMBER 2ND-6TH REACHED THE 
50S.

- THIS WOULD BE THE LATEST INTO DECEMBER WITH FIVE OR MORE STRAIGHT
DAYS IN THE 50S ON RECORD /SINCE 1905/. THIS HAS ALSO NOT HAPPENED
IN JANUARY...SO ONE COULD SAY FIVE CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF 50 DEGREES 
OR HIGHER HAS NOT HAPPENED THIS FAR INTO METEOROLOGICAL WINTER ON 
RECORD.

- EVEN FOUR CONSECUTIVE 50 PLUS DAYS HAS NOT HAPPENED THIS FAR INTO
DECEMBER. IT ONCE HAPPENED IN JANUARY IN 1944 FROM JANUARY 25TH 
THROUGH THE 28TH.


MULTIPLE PERIODS OF RAIN ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY
INTO MONDAY. OVER TWO INCHES OF RAIN ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS...THOUGH THIS FORECAST COULD SHIFT.

- TWO INCHES OR MORE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THREE DAYS HAS NOT HAPPENED 
IN DECEMBER SINCE 2.07 INCHES FELL ON DECEMBER 23RD-25TH 2009...WHICH 
WAS MAINLY ALL RAIN.

- OVER TWO INCHES OF PRECIPITATION HAS NOT HAPPENED AS LATE INTO
DECEMBER AS THIS COMING WEEKEND SINCE DECEMBER 22ND-24TH 1979 WHEN 2.09
INCHES FELL...WHICH WAS ALMOST ENTIRELY ALL RAIN.

- THE MAXIMUM RAINFALL WITH AN EVENT IN DECEMBER WAS 2.64 INCHES ON
DECEMBER 10TH-11TH 2003...WHICH WAS ALMOST ENTIRELY ALL RAIN.


OBVIOUSLY THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY SHIFT SOME THROUGH THE COMING DAYS
BUT THE PATTERN FAVORS AT LEAST NEAR THESE VALUES MENTIONED ABOVE. EVEN 
THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS LATER THIS WEEKEND!

$$

MTF

Additional Information on Record Warmth to Be Threatened or Broken

Public Information Statement on December 11th

Rockford (click to enlarge)