890
FXAK68 PAFC 050004
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
404 PM AKDT Sat Oct 4 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
A warm front that moved up into the Gulf this morning is now
beginning to slow down and stall out as it approaches the Gulf
Coast this afternoon. Easterly winds up to gale force are
developing out ahead of the front, with the strongest winds
currently centered over the Barren Islands. A shield of moderate
rainfall moving out ahead of the front has now spread into the
Prince William Sound region, while steady rain that fell earlier
today across the Cook Inlet and Mat Valley region is tapering off
for now in the wake of a subtle shortwave passage. Gap winds that
were strong, erratic and gusty across the Mat Valley and much of
Anchorage earlier today are weakening and turning northerly as a
down-inlet pressure gradient develops north of the front stretched
across the Gulf. However, southeast winds gusting up to around 50
mph or so across the Anchorage Hillside are set to continue well
into tonight.
The outlook for the rest of the weekend will continue the same
theme of moderate, steady rain along the coast and more
intermittent rainfall for interior valleys with passing
shortwaves lifting up between a deepening trough out west and a
strong upper ridge over the eastern Gulf. By Sunday night, a more
potent, negatively-tilted shortwave will lift up past Kodiak
Island into the Kenai Peninsula and northern Gulf. This will send
a pulse of more intense rainfall across much of Southcentral as it
lifts north through Monday morning. The heaviest rainfall amounts
with this next round will still be focused where southerly flow
upslopes into terrain, especially near Prince William Sound.
Models diverge in terms of how quickly the trough progresses
northeast on Monday as the upper level pattern becomes notably
more complex. However, the progression is consistent enough to say
with confidence that winds will become westerly (as strong as
gale force) over the Gulf as more steady rainfall tapers off to
showers across most of Southcentral through Monday evening.
For Tuesday, a strong upper ridge is expected to build back
overhead as the system moving through for Monday exits into the
Yukon and Southeast. Things should dry back out for the most part
as well, except across the Talkeetnas and near Broad Pass where
moisture streaming in along an atmospheric river extending from
the Bering into the Interior wrings out moisture via upslope flow.
Following a brief cool down on Monday, temperatures will also
begin to trend warmer once again.
-AS
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...
A fast-moving low crosses the Aleutians into Bristol Bay just
east of King Cove this evening bringing continued rain and strong
winds through tomorrow afternoon. High pressure builds in the
North Pacific and a Kamchatka low moves eastward this upcoming
week causing persistent southwest wind flow, heavy rain and
coastal impacts for the entire region; especially coastal
Mainland.
Overnight, a 992 mb low currently south of Unalaska moves over
the Aleutians just west of Cold Bay and crosses into Bristol Bay
late tomorrow morning before moving onshore tomorrow afternoon
near Dillingham. Northwesterly wind speeds through the gaps and
passes of the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula increase
during this time frame ranging from 35 to 45 knots. Winds begin to
decrease tomorrow afternoon as a weak ridge builds into the area.
A Kamchatka low moves eastward through the Bering Sea early next
week. Also, a 1038 mb high in the North Pacific Monday evening
builds to 1040 mb by Tuesday morning staying fairly stationary
through mid- week. This will bring persistent southwesterly flow
around its northern periphery; primarily from Adak northeastward
to Nunivak Island Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Integrated
Water Vapor Transport (IVT) shows this flow will tap into tropical
moisture from the Pacific Ocean. This moisture, referred to as an
Atmospheric River, will bring heavy rain, from points east of
Adak to the Mainland Tuesday through Thursday of next week.
Southwesterly wind gusts associated with this stream of moisture
will result in widespread gale to storm force winds in the Bering
Sea. Of note, this prolonged period of southwesterly flow could
cause impacts to coastal areas of the Mainland; from Kipnuk to
Quinhagak next Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...
High pressure will dominate south central Alaska through the end
of the work week. By next weekend, a weakening front stretching
across the western half of the state, will help develop low
pressure that will bring rains back into the region. While still a
week out, precipitation type will be something to watch.
Termination Dust should continue it`s descent down the mountains.
At this time, most of lower elevation should remain rain.
Temperatures are definitely cooling, so this aspect will need a
keen eye to remain on it.
Out west... low pressure in the western Bering will sling a front
across the Aleutians through Friday. This weather system will have
a deep tap of moisture (roughly 40N) and should bring abundant
precipitation to the Aleutians and west coast into the weekend.
The deep southerly flow will rebound temperatures. Upper level
high pressure over the state will help to deflect any approaching
western Pacific system from impacting the coast. Friday and into
the weekend, in what looks like a rinse and repeat of the current
weather system, another WNPac low will ride the ridge north into
the western Bering. Another front is expected to drive east across
the Aleutian Chain and AKPen into Sunday. Continued unseasonably
warm and wet weather will continue through the extended forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...The main challenge will continue to be the winds, both at
the immediate surface and for low level wind shear. By late this
afternoon, the surface winds should with to a northerly direction
as opposed to the southeasterly winds that varied wildly in speed
earlier in the day. While the surface winds will be northerly,
the winds aloft will remain from the east-to-southeast 20 to 30
kt. The level this wind switch occurs will range anywhere between
500 and 2500 ft above the surface so we are expecting the low
level wind shear to continue into Sunday.
Periods of light rain will occur through the night and into
Sunday morning. VFR conditions are expected to persist in spite
of the rain, though the ceiling heights could drop into the 3500
ft to 5000 ft range anytime through Sunday afternoon.
&&
$$
566
FXAK69 PAFG 042213
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
213 PM AKDT Sat Oct 4 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather continues as we have an ongoing coastal storm
bringing minor coastal impacts to the West Coast and areas of
rain/snow across Northern Alaska. Alaska Range gap winds will be
gusting upwards of 60 mph today and tomorrow. Isolated to
scattered showers should be expected in the Interior north of
Fairbanks today with more widespread rain in Western Alaska today
through tomorrow. The big story will be a strong coastal storm
Tuesday through Thursday which could bring a wide swath of coastal
impacts including coastal flooding, erosion, wave run up, heavy
rain and strong wind to all of the West Coast and the Western
Arctic Coast.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Isolated to scattered showers north of Fairbanks today and
tomorrow.
- Alaska Range Gap winds gusting up to 65 mph through tomorrow.
- Widespread rain arrives Monday night into Tuesday with the
potential for some spots to receive over 1 inch.
- Southwest winds may begin to increase Tuesday with gusts to 30
mph possible, especially in the higher terrain of the Interior.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- A coastal storm with minor coastal impacts is moving out of the
area today, but rain and gusty winds prevail through tonight
before ending gradually tomorrow.
- A low moves through the Interior on Monday but most of the coast
stays dry through the early afternoon.
- Late Monday afternoon/evening, a low in the Bering brings its
initial front to the coast bringing heavy rain and gusty winds.
- This low will rapidly strengthen on Tuesday bringing strong
southwest wind gust to most of the coastline, potentially as
high as 70 mph in some spots.
- This can result in widespread coastal impacts including coastal
flooding and/or significant erosion. More details can be found in
"coastal hazard potential" section.
North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Stratus and areas of dense fog on the coast today.
- Light snow and rain in the Western Arctic through Monday
morning.
- Light snow develops in the Central Brooks Range Sunday morning
and continues into the evening before ending. More widespread
snow develops in the Central/Western Brooks Range and North
Slope Monday night and ends Tuesday night.
- Snow accumulations around 1 inch or less in Anaktuvuk Pass and
the North Slope, 2 to 5 inches in Atigun Pass and potentially
upwards of 1 foot in the Western Brooks Range north/east of
Shungnak.
- Getting a bit into the extended, expect south/southwest winds to
increase across the North Slope on Wednesday and continue
through Thursday. Winds shift west/northwest through Thursday
afternoon with coastal flooding and erosion possible. More
details can be found in the "coastal hazard potential" section.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A rapidly weakening 985 mb low in the Eastern Bering with a warm
front bringing rain and wind to the coast will continue
transferring its energy northward through tomorrow. This front is
connected with a moisture plume from the North Pacific bringing
precipitable water values of around an inch. A stout ridge
stemming from the North Pacific High settled into the Eastern
Interior this morning bringing chinook flow resulting in
temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s this week. We are seeing
the pressure gradient across the Alaska Range increasing this
afternoon and tonight to around 6 to 8 mb. This gradient supports
wind gusts around 55 to 65 mph through tomorrow morning with
gradual weakening through tomorrow afternoon. With 500 mb
shortwaves moving across the AK Range, we will see an
amplification of the gap winds.
On Monday the next low pressure will move into the Southern
Bering Sea. This 990 mb low will rapidly intensify overnight
Monday and by Tuesday afternoon it will be anywhere from the Gulf
of Anadyr to the Bering Strait. There is a lot of uncertainty
with the track and the strength of this system. But EPS and GEFS
are honing in on a track into the Gulf of Anadyr with a low
anywhere from 948 to 973 mb. Nevertheless, a track in this general
area will provide strong southwest flow to much of the West Coast.
With a monster 588 decameter ridge (nearly 3 standard deviations
higher than normal) moving into the Gulf of Alaska, a track
northward to the Chukchi Sea, then east into the Beaufort by
Thursday is reasonable. Based on the strength of the ridge and
ensemble guidance, we are leaning towards a more western solution
for the low track, but if this ridge moves a bit faster east, an
eastern track would still be entirely possible. But, the favored
western solution would produce a long fetch of southwesterly
winds from SW AK to the Bering Strait Region. The one thing we
are confident in is a period of heavy rainfall and strong winds,
potentially gusting upwards of 70 mph Tuesday and Wednesday for
the West Coast. The wind threat decreases significantly about 15
miles inland, but the heavy rain will move into the Western
Interior on Tuesday and Central Interior as early as Tuesday
evening. The north slope will see impacts from this low Wednesday
night through Thursday and this will be highlighted in the
extended forecast.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
The low in the Bering Sea will begin to move through the Bering
Strait on Wednesday, leaving behind widespread rain showers for the
West Coast and Interior and snow showers for parts of the North
Slope. Wind gusts as high as 70 mph are possible for the Seward
Peninsula and Western Arctic Coast on Wednesday and gusts as high as
60 mph the eastern Arctic Coast Thursday into Friday. Highest
precipitation totals for the entire event will range between 1.00-
1.50".
On Thursday, there will be scattered rain/snow showers on the North
Slope and widespread rain showers for the Western Interior that will
travel eastward throughout the day, transitioning to more snow
showers. Precipitation totals again ranging as high as 1 inch.
Another low moves into the Western Bering Sea on Friday. While this
low is expected to remain just east of the Kamchatka Peninsula in
Russia, there will be multiple shortwave features that will rotate
around the low. These shortwave features will bring chances for
gusty winds and light to moderate rain to the West Coast.
&&
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 through 5...
Coastal Flood Watches have been issued from Utqiagvik to Hooper
Bay. While some places won`t see "warning level flooding" there is
a chance for significant impacts in all of these spots and
every community along the coast. Details below.
A major storm with widespread coastal impacts is becoming more
likely. The aforementioned low in the Bering on Tuesday is looking
to bring a long fetch of southwest wind from SW AK to the Chukchi
Sea. Wind gusts may be as high as 70 mph in spots. Preliminary
water level rises (subject to change) above the normal high tide
line look to be anywhere from 3 to 11 feet with the highest in the
Eastern Norton Sound (Unalakleet to Koyuk). There is a lot of
uncertainty with how high the water will get, but this is looking
more and more like a significant coastal concern. The Arctic Coast
will also get a piece of this storm Wednesday and Thursday as it
enters the Chukchi Sea and moves east into the Beaufort. Winds
will begin from the southwest with potential peak gusts up to 60
to 70 mph along the NW Arctic Coast Wednesday afternoon. Then we
see the winds turn west-northwest on Thursday with widespread wind
gusts of 50 to 60 mph along the entire Arctic Coast. Much more
uncertainty lies in this area, especially with water levels, but
preliminary rises (subject to change) seem to be from 2 to 4 feet
above the normal high tide line.
We are expecting significant erosion for many along the coast
with coastal flooding likely, especially in more vulnerable
locations. Preparations should be made for a strong coastal storm
everywhere along the coast as most, if not all communities will
see some sort of impact.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Coastal Flood Watch for AKZ801>803-815>818.
Wind Advisory for AKZ837-847-849.
Coastal Flood Watch for AKZ820>822-824-825-827.
High Surf Advisory for AKZ821-822.
Coastal Flood Advisory for AKZ825.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801>806-852-853.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807-808-811-850.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ809-816.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810-817-854>857.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ813.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ814-859-860.
Gale Warning for PKZ815.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
Gale Warning for PKZ858.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ859.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ860.
Gale Warning for PKZ861.
&&
$$
Bianco
578
FXAK67 PAJK 050545
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
945 PM AKDT Sat Oct 4 2025
.UPDATE...Update to the aviation section to include the 06z TAF
issuance.
Short term forecast is on track when compared to the
afternoon forecast issuance. Only minor updates were made to
inner channel winds to include spots that saw increased wind
speeds that happened a few hours earlier than expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Key Points:
- A front pushes into the panhandle tonight into tomorrow.
- Winds increase across the panhandle as the front passes and
ridging develops.
- Times of moderate to heavy rain will fall with the greatest total
rain amounts near Yakutat.
Details: A front has begun to push into the Yakutat area and will
continue to push into the panhandle through tonight into tomorrow.
With this front, widespread moderate rain will occur with areas of
heavy rain. Yakutat will see the highest rain totals over this event
with 24 hour rain amounts between 1 to 2 inches and 48 hour totals
around 3 to 4 inches. The rest of the panhandle will see around 1
inch or less in 24 hours, with the majority of precipitation falling
Sunday.
Winds with this front will increase across the panhandle. Throughout
tonight, winds will continue to increase in the gulf reaching strong
breezes late tonight into tomorrow morning around 22 to 27 kts.
Areas along the northern gulf will reach near gale to times of gale
force winds up to 35 to 40 kts. As this front pushes into the
panhandle, winds will increase to fresh to strong breezes near 17 to
27 kts. As well as marine winds, land winds will increase to 10 to
15 mph with infrequent gusts up to 25 mph in the northern panhandle.
.LONG TERM.../Thursday through the weekend/...The long term
forecast starts off with a return to form for SE AK - which is to
say a front moving into the panhandle. The track of its parent
low, which dives NW out of the interior, would during winter
normally herald the arrival of a snow producing system. Given that
this is only early October, anticipate it be primarily a rain
event for most locations, although snow levels dropping down to
3,500-4,500ft will open up the opportunity for the termination
dust line to likely continue to work down the mountainside. The
possibility of snow mixing down to White Pass is possible and
could result in a dusting to minor accumulations for this area
especially during heavier periods of precipitation Thursday into
Friday. Everywhere below 3,000ft is expected to continue to see
rain. Headed into the weekend, high pressure returns across the
Gulf, though the positioning of the ridge could result in some
moderate onshore flow, bringing with it some lingering cloud
cover and shower chances. Long term guidance points towards a near
normal trend for this time of the year. Although places to the
north will likely see a higher potential for above normal
temperatures and above normal precipitation. While farther to the
south, there is a greater chance for near normal temperatures but
potentially below normal precipitation for the next one to two
weeks.
&&
.AVIATION...Clouds and rain have been moving east into the panhandle
this evening. So far, rain has been reported in the northern half of
the panhandle.
As the front tracks inland, CIG and VIS will continue to drop to
MVFR with IFR conditions likely overnight due to lowered CIGs
from moderate rainfall. Conditions will improve Sunday morning.
Wind speeds will increase as the front passes through, upwards of 10
to 15 kts with higher gusts, highest wind speeds in the north.
But once the front clears your area, wind speeds will decrease.
LLWS is a possibility. For the Yakutat area, it should begin after
08 to 09z. For the rest of the panhandle, the potential LLWS will
start to slide in the central panhandle after 14 to 15z and spread
east and south for the rest of the day with decreasing LLWS chances
Sunday evening.
&&
.MARINE...
Outside: Winds increasing across the outside waters and Gulf
tonight into Sunday with a frontal system pushing across. Gales
developing over the outside waters from Cape Suckling to Icy Cape
tonight, then Icy Cape to Cape Spencer Sunday. Small Craft
Advisory conditions developing from Cape Spencer on south to Dixon
Entrance. After a brief lull in winds and waves Sunday night, a
weakening low pressure system will push southeast along the coast
early next week, brining increasing winds and seas. May see Small
Craft Advisory winds for the outer coastal waters, but an elevated
southwest to west swell looks to bring seas up to 13+ feet across
the outside coastal waters.
Inside: Light winds tonight will increase from the south and east
on Sunday with an incoming frontal passage, becoming moderate to
fresh. A weakening low pressure system pushing southeast along the
coast early next week will keep winds elevated. Areas of fog
looks to linger this evening across the central inside channels,
especially across southern Chatham Strait, southern Stephens
Passage and Frederick Sound, before lifting as clouds and rain
move in.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ644-651-652-664-671-672.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ033-641>643-661>663.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...GJS
MARINE...DS
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