347
FXAK68 PAFC 010159
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
459 PM AKST Sun Nov 30 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Wednesday)...
An upper level trough/low is continuing to progress north from the
Gulf into the Prince William Sound this afternoon, with colder
cloud tops on GOES West satellite imagery now shifting northwest
and inland across Southcentral. A surface low in the eastern Gulf
is moving up towards the Kenai Peninsula south of Seward. with a
gale force front extending northeast now just working onshore
along the Gulf Coast. A mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain that
came in to parts of the Mat-Su Valleys and Anchorage earlier
today has mostly tapered off for the time being. This is mainly
due to the position of the incoming trough and surface low,
currently causing a bit of easterly flow and downslope drying off
of the Chugach/Kenai Mountains. The latest Anchorage observed
sounding continues to show a warm layer above freezing from about
1000 to 3000 ft above ground level, and this warm air aloft atop
sub-freezing temperatures near the ground is responsible for the
multiple rounds of wintry mix we`ve seen across parts of
Anchorage, the Mat-Su and Kenai Peninsula over the past 24 hours.
This warm nose is starting to cool compared to this morning,
however, and this cooling trend is likely to continue this
evening.
It remains likely for a transition from a wintry mix to mainly
snow to occur sometime this evening as temperatures aloft cool
while the surface low shifts into Prince William Sound, allowing
easterly flow and downslope drying to abruptly abate. It`s still
not out of the question for several inches of snowfall (and less
freezing rain) to move into parts of Anchorage and the Mat Valley
overnight if the transition over to snow can happen on the earlier
side during the overnight tonight.
Shifting attention over to the east, a southerly push of warm air
aloft has made it into portions of the Richardson Highway
corridor, similarly resulting in a mix of snow, sleet and
freezing rain where low level temperatures are still below
freezing. This has mostly been concentrated along a stretch of the
Richardson between Tonsina and Thompson Pass, where a Winter
Weather Advisory has been issued through midday tomorrow as
periods of freezing rain and snow are set to continue into
tomorrow morning. Most of the rest of the Copper Basin is
continuing to stay cold enough for snow, but there will be a
chance for warmer air to continue to spread north overnight
tonight, possibly resulting in more mixing with freezing rain and
sleet as far north and east as Glennallen and McCarthy from this
evening into Monday.
Looking a bit farther out towards midweek, the warm pattern looks
to persist in the near term. It looks like a bit more of a break
in precipitation is now possible from Monday afternoon into
Tuesday morning as the upper trough curves east towards the Yukon
and as an upper level ridge moves in from Southwest. Areas of snow
will linger for the longest across the Copper Basin, especially
from Glennallen north to Paxon and Mentasta Lake. A strong Bering
low will send another front across the region from the southwest
by early Tuesday, sending another batch of warm southerly flow and
precipitation back into Southcentral. With the exception of the
Copper Basin and northern Susitna Valley, it looks likely
temperatures will be warm enough this time for mostly rain to move
in with this front at lower elevations. Still, some mixing with
freezing rain cannot be entirely ruled out for spots that hold on
to colder temperatures, such as the southern Susitna Valley and
western Matanuska Valley. Rain and higher elevation snow will come
to an end for the most part by Wednesday as the surface front
weakens and hangs up along the Gulf coast and as temperatures turn
the corner towards what could be a rather dramatic cooling trend
later this week.
-AS
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...
...ICE STORM WARNING now in effect from 3AM Tuesday to 9AM
Wednesday for significant icing for the Kuskokwim Delta, Kuskokwim
Valley, including Bethel, Aniak, and Crooked Creek...
...Ice accumulations of one half to three quarters of an inch
expected along the coast by Wednesday morning. Ice accumulations
of one quarter of an inch expected across the Kuskokwim Valley.
Total snowfall accumulations up to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high
as 35 mph along the coast and 15 mph for inland locations...
Our well advertised two fold winter storm is well underway across
the Yukon-Kuskokwim (YK) Delta and Kuskokwim Valley. Current
surface temperatures are in the low 20s for Bethel and mid 20s for
Kipnuk, owing to a stout northeast wind resupplying cold air to
the region. These temperatures are about 5 degrees colder than
what the models think they should be. Farther south from the
Kuskokwim Mountains southward, there has been a wind shift to
easterly to southeasterly, and temperatures have warmed into the
mid 30s. Radar returns and surface observations show snow showers
have transitioned to periods of light freezing rain for Bethel,
with the 12z Bethel sounding showing a modest warm nose with the
wet bulb below freezing. The forecast seems to be mostly on track
as precipitation streams northward across the YK Delta and Valley,
though should remain light due to some degree of downsloping from
the Kuskokwim Mountains. The GFS has been the outlier in previous
runs at being much a colder solution overall, but latest runs
have been more in line with the NAM, which has been the favored
model with this system. Therefore, forecaster confidence has
increased since this time yesterday.
Aloft, weak diffluence still remains across Southwest Alaska
downstream of a trough that has dug its way over the North
Pacific, well south of the Aleutians. A couple of weak vorticity
lobes originating from the trough should move across the area this
afternoon/evening, giving a little more lift/forcing to wring out
more light snow/ or light freezing rain. In advance of a fast
moving North Pacific low, the overall 500 mb mean flow becomes
increasingly difluent once again across Southwest Alaska, and its
front will be accompanied by a plethora of moisture as the
low/front nears the Aleutian Chain. The onset of heavier
precipitation across the Ice Storm warned areas likely begins
early Tuesday morning. By this time, the higher resolution
guidance and the global models indicate that 925 mb temperatures
will be above freezing as winds aloft shift from southeasterly to
easterly. With colder northeasterly winds at the surface, Kipnuk
eastward to Bethel, and then onward to Aniak and Crooked Creek,
will see a high impact ice storm. Every bit of guidance says that
this second wave will be significantly stronger and more moisture
rich than the first, so QPF amounts will be substantially higher
as well. This will be a long duration icing event, and will only
wind down as the diffluence aloft relaxes and the front clears the
area Wednesday morning. Depending on exact timing, freezing
drizzle could linger past Wednesday morning, though the vast
majority of precipitation/icing will fall and occur Tuesday
morning to Wednesday morning.
-AM
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Thursday through
Sunday)...
Thursday begins with the low over the Central Aleutians
weakening. This leads to lower precipitation chances and winds
speeds for the Aleutians and the Southwest Mainland. Southcentral
Alaska will also have a drying trend as higher pressure moves into
the region. All of this less active weather will be accompanied
by a large cooldown due to cold air advection from the north.
Things get more uncertain moving into Friday as the cooldown
continues. Some guidance has the colder air keeping more to the
east, with Western Alaska seeing less cold temperatures whereas
other guidance has the Arctic air taking a more western track and
encompassing almost the whole state. This also has implications
for storm tracks as well. If the colder and more stable air takes
the western track, less active weather can be expected for Western
Alaska, but if the eastern track wins out, there is a potential
for lows to make it into the Bering and cause snowfall and winds
in the Southwest Mainland. The story is the same for the weekend
regarding uncertainty. Regardless of what occurs, what is known
is that Southcentral and Southwest Alaska will experience much
colder temperatures by the end of the week into the weekend and
that less active weather will accompany this cooling trend.
-JAR
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...
Temperatures in the lower atmosphere are expected to hover right
near freezing through the night and into Monday. With
precipitation moving back into the area this afternoon through
overnight hours, all precipitation types are on the table. Rain is
the most likely type for this afternoon, with SN becoming more
likely this evening. The low causing this precipitation is edging
a little farther to the east which will lessen the chance for
freezing rain and keep it more of a question of rain or snow.
Either way, MVFR to IFR conditions are expected this evening until
Monday morning where at least the visibilities are expected to
return to VFR, though MVFR ceilings may persist through most of
Monday.
&&
$$
895
FXAK69 PAFG 302219
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
119 PM AKST Sun Nov 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Cold air from the northwest and warm, moist air from the south
meet across the Interior as a widespread Winter Storm event Sunday
through Wednesday. A band of snow sets up with storm total snow
values of 6 to 12 inches near the center of the band and 2 to 6
inches along the peripheries. This band of snow is expected to run
from the Lower Yukon northeast towards the Yukon Flats. Some
wintry mix is expected, on the south side of the band. Ice
accumulations of 0.10 to 0.20 inches possible for the Lower Yukon
and Upper Kuskokwim with lesser accumulations of trace to 0.05
inches possible for the Middle Tanana Valley and areas south and
west towards the Upper Kuskokwim. Conditions improve rapidly from
the northwest Wednesday as colder, drier air moves into the
region. Significant cooling late Wednesday through the end of the
week brings temperatures next weekend well into the negatives.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Snow showers will continue to lift north of the Alaska Range
Sunday through Monday, supporting widespread light snowfall
amounts with highest totals in the Alaska Range.
- Warmer and wetter weather builds in Monday night into Tuesday,
as light snow becomes heavier and wetter Tuesday and Wednesday.
Total snow amounts through Wednesday around 3-6" with locally
higher totals around 6-10" north and west of Fairbanks. Lowest
totals around 1-3" south and east of Fairbanks.
- Some wintry mix amongst the heavier snow is possible Tuesday for
areas from Fairbanks south. Ice accumulations will be light,
generally a trace to 0.05 inches.
- Southerly winds increase through Alaska Range Passes Monday
night into Tuesday, with gusts up to 55 mph possible especially
north of Isabel Pass along the Richardson Highway.
- Increasing high pressure building in Thursday will lead to much
colder and drier conditions to finish out the week. Low
temperatures in Interior Valleys by next weekend reach below
-20F.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Snow showers will continue to lift north across Western Alaska
Sunday into Monday, supporting widespread light snowfall amounts
with driest conditions across the NW Arctic Coast and the
Seward Peninsula.
- Warmer and wetter weather builds in Monday night into Tuesday,
as light snow becomes heavier and wetter Tuesday and Wednesday
along a corridor extending northeast from the Yukon Delta into
the Western Interior. Total snow amounts through Wednesday
around 6-10" in this corridor with lighter totals north and
south along the periphery of the snow band.
- As warmer air overruns colder air the surface, a wintry mix and
freezing rain will be possible across the Southwest Interior,
Lower Yukon/Upper Kuskokwim Valleys Sunday through Wednesday.
Total Ice accumulations of 0.05-0.20" expected.
- The greatest potential for freezing rain and ice accumulations
is Tuesday for the Upper Kuskokwim and Lower Yukon. Ice
accumulations of 0.10 to 0.20 inches possible Tuesday.
- N/NE winds increase across the West Coast and St. Lawrence
Island today, with gusts up to 55 mph possible through
Wednesday.
- Northerly winds will lead to areas of fog and possible ocean
effect snow showers along north facing coasts facing open
water. There may be periods of reduced visibility.
- Increasing high pressure out of the northwest will lead to
colder and drier conditions across the NW Arctic Coast,
expanding further south Wednesday through the end of the week.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Temperatures begin a cooling trend early this week with areas of
low stratus and scattered snow showers, as a low pressure system
works east through the Arctic Ocean.
- Colder air further north will meet a moist airmass in the
Interior, supporting heaviest snow totals in the Central/Eastern
Brooks Range. Total snow amounts through Wednesday across the
North Slope around 1-3" with locally higher totals in the Brooks
Range around 3-7".
- Breezy winds across the Arctic Coast and in the Brooks Range
could lead to areas of blowing snow at times.
- Increasing high pressure building in out of the northwest
Tuesday into Wednesday will lead to much colder and drier
conditions to finish out the week.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
For Sunday through Wednesday.
At the start of the forecast period, Sunday, a weak ridge
continues to weaken over the Eastern Interior and a large low
stalls near the Aleutians. A trough stretches south from another
low in the high Arctic through the Bering Sea towards the Aleutian
low. A ridge building behind this trough strengthens over Eastern
Siberia through midweek. These features combine to pull colder
air from the northwest towards the North Slope and warmer, wetter
air from the south into the Interior. These features clash Sunday
and Monday and establish a very strong temperature gradient across
the state which will work to establish where moisture from the
Aleutian low could fall as either snow or a wintry mix. Areas from
the Lower Yukon to Upper Kuskokwim south and west are most likely
to see a wintry mix with a chance for some brief periods of
freezing rain Tuesday and areas north of a line from Fairbanks to
Anvik will see mostly snow with slim to no chance for wintry mix.
Areas in between, from the Middle Tanana Valley south and west
towards the Lower Yukon will see mostly snow with some periods of
wet snow and wintry mix Tuesday. The clashing air masses are also
going to fuel gusty north to northeasterly winds along the West
Coast Sunday through Wednesday.
The Aleutian low will provide additional moisture for enhanced
precipitation in two main waves. The first occurs Sunday through
Monday and will be lighter as a shortwave feature rotates around
the Aleutian low. The Aleutian low strengthens and becomes more
organized as the next wave approaches. This wave is being fueled
by a separate low attempting to move east through the progressive
pattern that wraps into the Aleutian low. This secondary low as
it reaches the southernmost extent of its rotation around the main
Aleutian low enhances moisture transport from the subtropics and
pulls warmer, wetter air through the system and into Southern
Alaska late Monday through Tuesday to clash with the Arctic air
mass to the northwest. This second wave of moisture will be
stronger, but so too will the Arctic air mass as the ridge that
was west of it breaks off into a strong Arctic high that will push
against the approaching tropical air.
This will cause the second wave to be an exaggerated repeat of
the first. Widespread moderate to heavy snowfall is expected for
areas north of Fairbanks with a mess of snow, wintry mix, and
periods of freezing rain possible for the Upper Kuskokwim and
Lower Yukon. Areas in between, including Fairbanks, will see the
quickest snow accumulations and the highest chance for wintry mix
Tuesday due to that warm, subtropical air trying to overrun the
wall of Arctic air to the north. A band of heavier snow is
expected to form along the strong temperature gradient with total
snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches near the center of the band
and 2 to 6 inches along the peripheries of the band.
The two air masses will clash Monday night through Tuesday, but
eventually the Arctic air mass will win overnight Tuesday into
Wednesday due to the low center in the Aleutians getting cut off
from its moisture transport. The low weakens rapidly late Tuesday
into Wednesday as the wettest air moves further east towards
Southeastern Alaska. As the low weakens the higher pressure Arctic
air mass will further assert itself pushing the remaining moisture
out of the region and very rapidly cooling the entire region from
the northwest Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
For Wednesday night through next Sunday.
At the start of the extended forecast period, Wednesday night,
higher pressure continues to build into the region from the
northwest. Colder, drier, and clearer conditions are expected
Thursday through the end of the week as this higher pressure air
settles over the state. Temperatures drop precipitously with lows
reaching below -20 for many Interior Valleys by next weekend.
More modest temperatures expected along the West Coast reaching
the single digits above and below 0. For much of the region these
will be the coldest temperatures seen thus far this season.
Lingering moisture from the first half of the week may produce
areas of dense fog in valleys as temperatures first drop late
Wednesday into Thursday.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ824-829-832>835-837>847-849.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ848-850.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ825-826-830-851-852.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-802-804-805-811-852-857.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803.
Gale Warning for PKZ806-807-853-856.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806-810-816-817-851-854-856-
858.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-855.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
Gale Warning for PKZ816-817-850-851-854.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ850.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ853.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&
$$
Stokes
609
FXAK67 PAJK 010641
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
941 PM AKST Sun Nov 30 2025
.UPDATE...Due to the 06z TAF issuance. Most of SEAK has ceilings
of 1200 to 2800 feet, and visibilities in 2 to 5 mile range. So
the expect MVFR conditions with pockets of IFR ceilings below 1000
feet and visibility around 2 miles.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 320 PM Nov 30 2025...
SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- Widespread precipitation and strong winds continue through
Sunday night, with accumulating snowfall in the far northern
panhandle. A winter weather advisory remains in effect for the
Klondike Highway through early Monday morning.
- Diminishing trend in winds and precipitation latter half of
Monday into Tuesday. Lingering showers primarily across
northern panhandle.
- Another system arrives Tuesday night bringing predominantly
rain and warming temperatures into midweek.
- Late week into next weekend, long range models are hinting at a
weather pattern that has been known to produce heavy snow. High
uncertainty at this time but worth watching closely.
SHORT TERM...A gale force front has gradually pushed into the outer
coast today, spreading precipitation to the entirety of the
panhandle. Earlier in the morning, most communities in the inner
channels from Angoon northward were reporting light accumulating
snow. By Late morning, the Icy Strait corridor had transitioned to
cold rain with some very wet snow mixed in and little to no
additional accumulations on the ground going forward. While not
particularly warm, a southerly surge moving up through the inner
channels will continue to prevent further snow accumulation at sea
level for a majority of the inner channels.
The exceptions will be the usual suspects in the far northern inner
channels, Skagway and Haines. Of particular note, the Klondike
Highway is still under a winter weather advisory for accumulating
snow lasting through Sunday night, diminishing through Monday
morning as temperatures finally warm enough for a transition to a
mix and then rain. Overall precipitation over the panhandle will be
on a downward trend Monday, though another weak wave following
behind this front will cause lingering rain showers through Monday
night.
Snow levels will gradually rise during this period as models
continue to suggest a low level ridge will form over the panhandle
along with mid level ridging over the gulf. This combination will
allow for a brief lull over the panhandle Tuesday, primarily for the
southern panhandle, as the ridging will still support onshore moist
flow into the northern panhandle. Any precipitation for that period
should however is expected to be light.
The next front moving through will begin to impact the NE Gulf Coast
and Yakutat areas into Tuesday night, before moving eastward across
the panhandle. This front will move across the panhandle through
Wednesday, bringing another round of rain and continued warmer
temperatures to the panhandle. Highs for the northern half of the
panhandle will be in the mid to high 40s, while the southern
panhandle will see temperatures around 50 degrees, which is close to
some record temperatures for this time of year if these warmer
temperatures pan out. In terms of precipitation, the majority of the
panhandle will see 850 mb temperatures warming to around 0 degrees
C, and snow levels reaching between 3000 and 6000 ft alongside the
warmer temperatures and wet bulbs at the surface. This will lead to
light to moderate rain across the area and snow mixing in only at
higher elevations. The only area not expecting rain will be the
Klondike Highway, with snow levels remaining just around 3000 ft
allowing for wetter snow to continue, but with little to no
accumulation expected as of this forecast. Overall the NE Gulf
coastline will see between 1 and 2 inches of rain in 24 hours from
this system Tuesday night into Wednesday, and generally less than 1
inch in 24 hours for the rest of the panhandle.
LONG TERM.../through this week/...The upcoming week is looking
like another cloudy and rainy week. There will be lulls between
the frontal passages but the overall trend in the long term
forecast is cloudy and rainy this week. But late this week into
next weekend, the long range weather models and ensembles are
hinting at a weather pattern that has been known to produce heavy
snow.
After the midweek frontal passage, continued showery weather with
on/off type rain with above normal temps.
Friday into the weekend, the overall weather pattern looks to
change. The long term weather models and ensembles are hinting at
a low pressure trough to develop to our north with a high pressure
ridge to our south at the higher levels of the atmosphere. This
kind of pattern usually allows for cold air from Canada to slide
southward into SE AK while moisture streams in from the gulf at
the mid to higher levels. This type of pattern is called
overrunning and has been known to produce heavy snow here.
The forecast challenges will be centered around the the cold air
from the north and the flow from the gulf. These two variables
will be fighting each other. Too much cold/dry air from the north
causes the precip amounts to be limited. Too much wind from the
gulf causes the atmosphere to mix and the snow switches to rain.
But where that balance sets up just right is where heavy snow is
likely.
As of now, there is high uncertainty in the details but overall
trend is on the snowy side of the rain/snow spectrum. Stay tuned.
AVIATION.../through Monday afternoon/...
Widespread moderate to heavy rain precipitation expected through
Sunday night. Snow has changed over to rain across the northern
TAF sites except for PAGY, which could remain snow a touch longer
before changing over to rain by Sunday evening. Generally low-
end MVFR flight conditions through Sunday night with VIS and CIGs
lowering to IFR under heavier precip. Flight conditions will
improve slightly on Monday afternoon as precip slowly diminishes,
but MVFR flight conditions likely to remain.
Winds 10-17kt with gusts to around 25kt through Sunday evening.
Winds will then diminish to generally less than 10kt, starting
first for PAYA Sunday night, then across much of the panhandle
Monday morning. Elevated winds look to linger a bit longer into
Monday afternoon for PAHN and PAGY. LLWS also expected across the
region through Sunday night with winds 2kft aloft 30-45kt.
MARINE...
Outer Waters: A strong gale force front is currently moving inland
over the coastal land areas at time of writing. A small pocket of
expected storm force winds have been observed from an ASCAT pass
around 1 PM today, east of Cape St. Elias along the coastline,
mainly influenced by a barrier jet. Expecting to see the cold
occluded front move ENE over the panhandle, with mainly SW flow
behind the front. Expect this SW flow to further enhance the
SW swell, increasing heights to 8-10 ft, for a combined,
relatively consistent height of around 11-13 ft through tomorrow
night.
Inside waters: Wind speeds are beginning to increase from the
strong gale force front moving over the panhandle. Expecting to
see winds increase out of the south in the coming hours,
maximizing around a strong breeze with gale force gusts. Late
tonight into early tomorrow morning, expect to see a S to SW shift
in winds, particularly in Cross Sound/western Icy Strait, and
Frederick Sound. Beyond this timeframe, winds are somewhat likely
to diminish slowly over time, to mostly light air to a gentle
breeze by tomorrow night. There is some indications of some brief
clearing tomorrow night, but was not confident on both clearing
skies and calm enough winds for radiation fog to develop.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM AKST Monday for AKZ318.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031-032-034-036-053-
641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...GJS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...NC
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