007
FXAK68 PAFC 231427
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
527 AM AKST Sun Nov 23 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
Overall a rather quiet weather pattern is over Southcentral today
with a vertically stacked low in the central Gulf brining some
showers just up to the coast, but mainly staying offshore. a weak
shortwave associated with an upper level low in the Interior is
bringing some clouds along the Alaska Range, but the precipitation
is expected to hang up along the Range and not spill any farther
into Southcentral. Between these two features, there is weak upper
level ridging over Southcentral producing northeasterly flow over
the region. This setup is leading to widespread fog across the
Cook Inlet region this morning as it did for most of the day
yesterday. This is the main weather challenge for the day: will
the fog dissipate or remain in place for most of the day and into
tonight? The pattern is not changing and the 12Z sounding out of
Anchorage shows a strong inversion up to around 1500 ft which
should help keep fog in place. It is interesting to see that
almost all NWP models are drying out the lowest levels of the
atmosphere as the day today progresses and largely dissipating
the fog by the afternoon. What this probably means is that while
the fog will likely become less widespread through the day, there
will be some that stubbornly persists through the day and into
tonight. By Monday, there is more reason to think the fog should
largely dissipate as the Gulf low moves farther eastward and the
airmass over Southcentral dries out further.
Looking ahead, the next front moves into the western Gulf and
Kodiak Island on Monday. Gusty southeasterly winds will overspread
the region with showery conditions into the middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 to 3: Today through Tuesday night)...
High pressure centered over the northern Bering Sea combined with
a broad low pressure in the Gulf are driving a light northerly,
offshore flow across Southwest Alaska this morning. Weather
conditions across much of Southwest Alaska and the Bering Sea are
dry under the influence of the offshore flow and waning effects of
the Gulf low, with the exception of some light snow showers
continuing along the Western Alaska Range. Across the Kuskokwim
Delta and Lower Kuskokwim Valley, stratus cloud cover is keeping
temperatures warmer than forecast, with temperatures generally
hovering around 20 degrees. To the southwest of this ridge, a
storm force low is centered just south of Attu, pushing its front
into the western Bering Sea and across the central Aleutians. Wind gusts
approached 65 mph in Adak overnight, but will diminish through
the day today as the front works north and east into the Bering.
As early as this evening, a series of triple point lows are expected
to spin up along the front to the south of the Aleutian Chain,
locally enhancing winds as they cross the islands into the Bering
Sea through Monday night. These features are too small and
transient to pin down with precision, so this will be something
to monitor for forecast adjustments over the next two days. Low
level temperatures will stay warm enough for most of the Aleutians
to see rain close to sea level along this boundary through
Monday. The Pribilof Islands could see a period of snow on the
leading edge of the precipitation shield as it moves up into the
Bering Sea on Monday, but temperatures warm quickly with the
arrival of the front, changing snow over to rain.
For Southwest Alaska, conditions are still on track to stay mostly
dry and cold through early next week. Temperatures will steadily
cool through tonight, dropping into the teens across the vast
majority of Southwest Alaska, with temperatures reaching near 10
degrees for interior locations. Increasing offshore winds will
tend to keep most places from cooling too rapidly as a result of
increased vertical mixing even as cloud cover is expected to
clear out by Monday. Northeast winds around 10 to 15 mph could
push windchill values below zero at times from late Sunday into
Monday. Temperatures will begin to slowly rebound from Monday to
Tuesday as flow turns more southeasterly and as the front tracking
across the Bering and Aleutians slowly approaches the coastline,
with coastal Bristol Bay returning to near freezing by Tuesday.
There appear to be increasing chances for precipitation heading
into mid-week, with the most likely areas to see periods of snow
or rain/snow mix along the Southwest coast as early as Monday
night. By Tuesday night, chances for light precipitation spread to
inland areas of Southwest Alaska.
CQ/AS
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Wednesday through
Saturday)...
Starting on Tuesday, a vertically stacked low and large cyclonic
circulation will be centered south of the Aleutians in a weakening
phase. Short-waves embedded within the circulation will track from
east to west from the western Gulf/Kodiak Island across the Alaska
Peninsula and Bristol Bay and continuing westward across the
southern Bering Sea. None of the features look particularly
strong, so would expect areas of precipitation and wind with
typical winter-time impacts. Precipitation-type will be mainly
rain, with Bristol Bay being the only location cold enough to see
snow. The upper low will open up into a trough by Thursday
(Thanksgiving), causing winds and precipitation to diminish.
Meanwhile, a strong ridge in the Arctic will build southward over
the northern half of mainland Alaska. This looks far enough south
to block any short-waves from the Aleutian trough from reaching
interior SW AK or Southcentral AK. Thus, expect seasonably cool
and dry conditions for these areas Tuesday through Wednesday. A
short-wave will dig down the east side of the ridge on Wednesday,
across the Yukon and into the Copper River Basin. This will bring
marginally colder temperatures, though accompanying cloud cover
will likely limit temperature drops. This trough will force the
upper ridge to retreat back northward and allow a short-wave
trough to approach Southcentral on Thursday. Model agreement with
this feature is not great, but ensembles generally support this
idea. With a cold air mass in place over Southcentral, the most
likely outcome would be widespread light snow arriving sometime
Thanksgiving Day.
As we continue to Friday into Saturday, model guidance is in
excellent agreement on amplification of the upper level flow and
development of an Atmospheric River. However, as would be expected
this far out in time, there is large spread in the location of
the ridge/trough and track of a leading surface low from the
Pacific. This evolving pattern does have good potential to bring
higher impact weather to southern Alaska, with strong winds, mixed
precipitation-types, and warming temperatures. Stay tuned as we
monitor the location of key features and identify the areas where
the greatest impacts are most likely.
-SEB/AM
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...Fog continues to undoubtedly be the challenge this morning
over the terminal. Fog, and associated IFR to LIFR conditions are
expected to remain over the terminal through late morning to
early afternoon before eroding, which may lead to a return to VFR
conditions. Fog, and IFR to LIFR conditions are possible once
again this evening and overnight as flow remains both weak aloft
and at the surface. An inversion near the surface will also help
low-level moisture to be locked in at the surface further aiding
to the ingredients for fog development.
&&
$$
370
FXAK69 PAFG 240024
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
324 PM AKST Sun Nov 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A band of snow showers and/or flurries will be transitioning over
the eastern Interior through this evening, and may allow for an
additional amount of 0.5-1" inch (or locally more). This will all
continue to taper off with clearing skies as high pressure
conditions begin to set in through the mid part of the week. It will
remain fairly dry and colder through the end of the week, with some
locations within the North slope and Brooks Range possibly getting
down into the -30s overnight by Wednesday. Going into the following
weekend, the region will begin to see a return of more mild
temperatures with an increased chance of snow, as a series of storm
systems begin to propagate up from the southwest and into the Gulf
of Alaska.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- The steadier snowfall over the Eastern Interior rapidly
diminishes through this afternoon. Storm total snow amounts from
Snotel observations as of 12AM Sunday listed below.
- White Mountains to Upper Chena Dome- 5 to 10 inches.
- Fairbanks Area- 3 to 5 inches.
- Nenana to Delta- 1 to 2 inches.
- Upper Tanana Valley east of Delta- 1 inch or less.
- Expect possibly 0.5-1" (or locally higher) of additional
snowfall within the Fairbanks area and White Mountains through
this evening as another band of snow is currently moving over
the area from north to south.
- Colder and drier conditions return early this week.
Temperatures fall to highs in the low teens to single digits and
lows in the negative teens to single digits by Tuesday.
- Clouds will continue to clear going into tomorrow and through
the mid part of the week. Temperatures decrease further in
valley locations under clear skies as stronger temperature
inversions develop.
- Increasing northeast winds begin tomorrow and last through much
of the week. Areas of reduced visibility due to blowing snow
are possible as are difficult travel conditions over Dalton,
Elliott, and Steese Highway Summits.
- There will be a transition to a warmer and wetter period going
into the following weekend, with an increase in the chance of
snow.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Colder and drier conditions return early this week.
Temperatures fall from the 20s to single digits over the weekend
to the teens and single digits for highs tomorrow. Western
Interior Valley lows fall to the negative single digits
overnight and into tomorrow morning.
- Winds shift east-northeast along the West Coast today through
tomorrow and increase into Wednesday. Easterly wind gusts 20 to
30 mph by Wednesday.
North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Areas of light snow continue on the Slope, Beaufort Sea Coast
and in the Brooks Range through this evening. Additional snow
accumulations will be around 1 to 3 inches with a couple of
spots near 4 inches in the Eastern Brooks Range and near
Kaktovik.
- Colder and drier conditions return early this week.
Temperatures fall from the teens to single digits today, to the
single digits to near 0 tomorrow along the coast. In the Brooks
Range Valleys temperatures fall into the negative teens and
possibly the negative 20s.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
For tonight through Wednesday.
A weak mid-level shortwave is continuing to transition over portions
of the Interior around the Fairbanks area through this evening, the
actual area of low pressure associated with this feature is located
over Canada, east of the Yukon Flats. This is continuing to
transition south and will allow for possibly another 0.5-1" (or
locally higher) in and around the Fairbanks area, and within the
White Mountains throughout the remainder of this evening. Otherwise,
with the exception of some light snow showers within portions of the
western Interior, and along the Arctic Coast due to onshore
northeasterly flow, most areas are beginning to clear out as higher
pressure begins to set in across the region. This will continue
going into the mid-half of the week as a ridge becomes established
over the Chuckchi Sea, and then transitions over into the Beaufort
Sea and enhances northerly flow. As the Mainland continues to dry
out under high pressure conditions, there will be notably colder
temperatures felt across most areas, with much of the Interior
returning back to highs in the singles by tomorrow.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
For Wednesday night through next Sunday.
Ensembles have been persistent in showing that there will be a large
expansive area of low pressure moving in over the Aleutians by later
this week and going into the weekend. While there still remains to
be some uncertainty at this time, and deterministic models have
continued to struggle with being consistent in terms of the
progression of some of the associated major shortwaves embedded with
this feature. There is, however, agreeance with the ensembles
showing that this will tap into moisture streaming up from 20N
(displaying the characteristics of an atmospheric river), which may
prove to be impactful for the region, depending on the track.
Because there is an ample amount of moisture, and warm air being
advected up with this, there could be some possible icing issues
within portions of the southern Interior and within the Tanana River
Valley. This will all be depended on the tracks of these systems
coming up into the Bering Strait through the following weekend,
although at this time they are too inconsistent to be considered
reliable and will need to evaluated in the upcoming days.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ801-804>806-852.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-803.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ807.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817-854.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ850-853.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ852.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ854-856.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ857.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ858.
&&
$$
Stewey
831
FXAK67 PAJK 240017
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
317 PM AKST Sun Nov 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
&&
.SHORT TERM...Current cool, settled weather conditions across
Southeast Alaska tonight will give way to a more dynamic pattern
as an approaching frontal system pushes moisture into the
panhandle. Current along the coastline, light precipitation and
drizzle have been reported with temperatures in the upper 30s to
lower 40s. In contrast for northern areas, cold air remains in
place, supporting flurries and light snow. Current guidance has
precipitation moving in slightly faster, with the Juneau area
seeing a mix of rain and snow showers late this evening. Looking
to see primarily rain in the Juneau, Gustavus, and Hoonah area by
Monday morning as the shallow, stable cold pool is eroded away by
the incoming frontal system.
Up north near Haines and Skagway is the main impactful elements of
this upcoming system for very early tomorrow morning through the
day. The aforementioned cold pool in the northern panhandle looks
substantially more impressive both in height and stability,
steadily reinforced by northerly winds. A frontogenesis band is
expected to develop almost directly on the Haines area, generating
substantial lift, particularly in the dendritic growth zone.
The only problem with this setup is the uncertainty in moisture
within the atmosphere between 850-500 mb. If the atmosphere is
sufficiently saturated, Haines could very easily see warning level
snow, but the likelihood of occurrence is only around 50%.
Sticking with an advisory for 4-6 inches, and will look towards
latest guidance to see if an upgrade is necessary.
.LONG TERM...For the start of the long term, conditions continue to
remain unsettled. Ensemble guidance is still having a hard time
nailing down specific details as well as deterministic for the
start of the long term. Right now, forecast guidance looks to be
split into two camps with the deterministic and ensemble guidance
for the Euro and Canadian coming together for a more consistent
solution. The other camp is the GFS and GEFS. The Euro/Canadian
solution looks to bring a low farther north and closer to the
panhandle which would increase the chances of seeing rain and snow
showers. The GFS solution looks to keep the low farther to the
south and would favor more of a dry outflow situation. Headed into
Wednesday, it looks like we dry out as high pressure in Canada
becomes the dominant pattern for SE AK. There are still some
disagreements between models on this solution so details could
change regarding exactly what locations dry out. By the time we
get to Thursday, models look to come into more agreement that
outflow will be the dominant weather for the panhandle as high
pressure over the Yukon and British Columbia firmly establishes
control. This will allow for temperatures to cool in locations
that are not usually windy during outflow events while places like
Cross Sound, Lynn Canal, Taku Inlet, and the Stikine River Delta
look to see winds increase. Our attention then turns to a low
pressure over the Alaska Peninsula for our next potential weather
maker. This system is expected to stay west of the area but could
tap into moisture from the south bringing in a significant amount
of moisture to the area. Depending on the location that this low
sets up around, conditions across the panhandle could range from
remaining dry due to high pressure, potentially a significant
rain/snow event, or just a significant rain event if the system is
far enough to the east to mix out the cold air near the surface
and bring mostly just rain. With the disagreement and uncertainty
in the models, this will need to be monitored throughout the week
for updates and changes.
&&
.AVIATION...Sunday afternoon VFR remains widespread north of
Sitka, with MVFR showers impacting the central and southern
Panhandle. Anticipate CIGS and VSBY to diminish overnight as more
extensive precipitation spreads northeast across the Panhandle.
00z TAFs leaned on the dominant precip type Monday morning at the
surface to fall as either snow or a snow/rain mix, which has much
larger implications for dropping VSBY down to 1SM to 3SM. Higher
confidence for all snow north of the Icy Strait corridor. For the
most part, winds remain out of the east- southeast with the
exception of PAGS and Lynn Canal, where winds are northerly in
nature. Through the night surface winds slightly build out of the
south as a weak wave moves over but speeds should largely remain
below 20 knots.
&&
.MARINE...
Inside Waters: Inside waters winds are rather light this
afternoon with most areas reporting 15 kt or less of wind. the
exceptions are near Young Bay and Cross Sound which are both
showing E winds to 20 kt. Wind directions are mainly out of the SE
and E. The exception to that is North/south channels north of Icy
Strait which are flowing out of north today. Slight increase in
winds expected for tonight as a weak short wave moves north
increasing winds in the northern half of the inner channels to 15
to 20 kt, but they are expected to diminish into Monday with the
northern inner channels switching to a southerly wind direction
mid day Monday. Winds are then expected to stay light into Monday
night before a general switch to a more northerly direction is
forecast for Tuesday as a storm system moves south of the area.
Seas are primarily wind wave up to 3 to 4 ft and will generally
stay that height or less through Tuesday. Higher seas near Ocean
Entrances tonight into early Monday as SW swell up to 6 ft in the
gulf gradually diminishes into Monday night.
Outside Waters:
Lingering low pressure in the central gulf is producing some 20 kt
winds E winds for the northern gulf and 20 kt W winds for the
southern gulf today. These winds are expected to gradually
diminish and become mostly Southerly by Monday afternoon as the
gulf low diminishes away. As a new low moves by to the south of
the area on Monday night into Tuesday, gulf winds will continue to
shift to SE and then E by Tuesday and will start increasing to
near 25 kt in the eastern gulf by Tuesday. Seas mainly dominated
by SW swell of around 6 to 7 ft (with a period of 12 to 14 sec) at
the moment with wind wave on top of that giving combined seas of 9
to 12 ft. Seas are expected to gradually diminish down to 6 to 7
ft through Monday night as the SW swell subsides. However, Seas
will start building again late Monday night into Tuesday as the
increasing SE winds begin to build waves from a southerly
direction, especially Tuesday where seas could reach 10 to 12 ft
across a large area of the gulf.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM AKST Monday for AKZ319.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...AP
MARINE...EAL
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