608
FXAK68 PAFC 181343
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
443 AM AKST Tue Nov 18 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
The overall weather today will be very similar to that observed
yesterday with slightly warmer temperatures and training showers
focused on the western Kenai Peninsula, Susitna Valley, and
eastern Prince William Sound. These will continue through
Wednesday morning as the pattern begins to be influenced by a
large trough with multiple embedded lows over the Bering and a
broad, and somewhat deep low moving into the southeastern Gulf.
While these systems approach, skies will generally clear out and
temperatures will drop a few degrees from those observed today.
Moving into Thursday will begin a shift into what could be
multiple days of potentially impactful weather as a deep low moves
into either Bristol Bay and then north, or across the Alaska
Peninsula and into either Cook Inlet or the Gulf. The Bristol Bay
and then north track, which has been the main track of the GFS and
NAM model (until the 6Z NAM) would result in a chinook like
pattern with potential for freezing rain and rain from the
southern Mat-Su south through the greater Cook Inlet region.
Downsloping with the strong winds would likely eat up most of the
moisture coming over the mountains from the southeast, but some
light spill over would be possible. While surface temperatures
would may be above freezing at the time of precipitation due to
the strong winds, there is plenty of snow on the area`s roadways
and after the cold snap of last week, precipitation may freeze on
contact regardless of the air temperatures.
The second storm track, which as of writing this is looking more
likely, or at least trending towards, would stall out the low
south of 60 N and instead either move the low over the Kenai
Peninsula, into Cook Inlet, or south into the Gulf, or some
combination of the three. The threat of freezing rain still exists
in this pattern as well, mainly due to overrunning warm air from
the system in the eastern Gulf on Wednesday. In fact, the threat
of true freezing rain (rain falling into a below freezing airmass
rather than just frozen surfaces) may be higher as northerly,
down-inlet and colder winds would be more likely, and rain falling
into the layer would likely go through a warm nose near
3000ft. For now, the forecast uncertainty is high and the exact
impacts will be storm track dependent, but for now these are the
two more likely scenarios, either the chinook with some
rain/freezing rain, or freezing rain transitioning to snow. Many
areas, especially the northern Susitna and Copper, may see limited
impacts from either scenario, other than continued warm
temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 to 3: Today through Friday morning)...
Cold air aloft continues to move back into mainland Southwest
Alaska today as the strong low that brought active weather across
the area the last couple of days continues its journey north to
the Bering Strait. The cold and unstable airmass is depicted
nicely on both the Bethel and King Salmon radars this morning as
they show showers moving inland of Southwest from the Bering.
Temperatures will remain near freezing today across most of
mainland Southwest. The coldest locations will be along the
Kuskokwim Delta Coast and Nunivak Island while warmer temperatures
in the mid 30s will occur along the northern coast of Bristol Bay
and interior Bristol Bay. Rain and snow showers will continue for
most of the day today across mainland Southwest. The best chance
to see a light snow accumulation will be across the Kuskokwim
Delta Coast, including Nunivak and Nelson Islands, as well as
along the Kuskokwim Mountains from Kilbuck to Aniak. Bethel may
also see a light accumulation before all is said and done there
later this morning into the early afternoon. Across Bristol Bay,
expect mostly rain/snow mix with little to accumulation today.
Shifting gears to farther out west, a front moves across the
Western Aleutians and western Bering with gusty southeasterly
winds and rain. The front makes it to the Central Aleutians later
this morning and to the Pribilof Islands and Eastern Aleutians
tonight. Confidence is higher today than it was yesterday
regarding on where a low would spin up along this front. As the
parent low, currently just to the south of Kamchatka, moves into
the western Bering very late tonight or early Wednesday morning, a
triple point low will spin up just west of the Pribilof Islands
by then. This will help to enhance rain and winds across the
islands, but not overly strong. This new low moves north to just
west of Nunivak Island late Wednesday morning. A strong push of
southerly flow will accompany this system as its front moves into
the coast Wednesday. However, the airmass from the south will not
be overly warm. Most precipitation along Bristol Bay associated
with this front will likely fall as plain rain. However, despite
the southerly flow, Nunivak Island and the Kuskokwim Delta Coast
could remain snow for a longer period Wednesday morning before a
transition to rain/snow mix or even plain rain through the day
Wednesday. This low will depart to the north and make it to the
Bering Strait region by late Wednesday night.
The pattern amplifies further on Wednesday night as the broad
upper-level trough complex across the Bering digs into the North
Pacific. A robust shortwave and associated strong surface low
pressure system will lift from the North Pacific to the Alaska
Peninsula (AKPEN) Wednesday evening. Strong gusty gale-force
southeasterly winds as well as heavy rain are likely along the
AKPEN starting Wednesday afternoon. While confidence for strong
winds and heavy rain is greatest along the AKPEN, there are still
questions about the exact track of this system. Confidence for
precipitation-type and precipitation intensity along Bristol Bay
and the Kuskokwim Delta/Kuskokwim Delta Coast for Wednesday night
and Thursday are extremely low at this time until there is more
confidence in storm track. Behind this low, a colder airmass will
spread across the Bering for Thursday night and Friday with
instability-driven showers likely across the Aleutian Chain,
Pribilof Islands, and southern AKPEN as mainland Southwest will
contend with wrap around moisture from the low that looks to be in
Cook Inlet or along the Kenai Peninsula early Friday morning.
Stay tuned for forecast updates as details on the exact track of
this low will hopefully become clearer with time.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...
Forecast confidence is generally low from late this week through
early next week. Generally expect stormy weather as a low impacts
Southern Alaska on Friday, followed by a brief break before the
next storm moves into the Bering Sea from the west.
Broad upper level troughing will be present over the Bering Sea
by the start of the long term forecast period. A robust shortwave
curving up from the North Pacific will spur the development of a
surface low near the Alaska Peninsula. However, model solutions
remain very divergent, which makes forecast details and potential
impacts difficult to pinpoint. Among the deterministic solutions,
low tracks range from the low curving up the Southwest Alaska
coastline, to the low moving onshore in Bristol Bay, to the low
curving up the Gulf coast towards Prince William Sound. Given the
strength of this low (minimum MSLP as low as 950-960 mb), gales
are likely, with sustained storm force winds possible. All told,
this will be a potentially impactful storm, and one to watch as
forecast confidence gradually improves.
As the aforementioned low gradually weakens and exits out of the
Southern Mainland, a ridge will move in, followed by the front
from a strong low that moves in by Saturday. Winds to storm force
are possible with this front, impacting the Western and Central
Bering/Aleutians. As the front approaches the Mainland by Monday,
secondary lows developing along the front will lead to stormy
weather along the Bering Sea, though uncertainty with low tracks
will once again lead to difficulty pinpointing exact details.
Overall, a low-confidence long-term forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...There are some light showers in the area on radar, but
there is a stout layer of dry air between 800 and 5500 ft to
overcome before any precipitation can reach the surface. With
this, VFR conditions are expected. Skies will clear tonight, which
may lead to MVFR to IFR conditions tomorrow morning with fog
possibly developing in the Inlet.
&&
$$
498
FXAK69 PAFG 180035
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
335 PM AKST Mon Nov 17 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Broad upper level troughing in the Bering Sea will continue to
support a series of low pressure systems moving into Western
Alaska through midweek, with gusty winds, widespread snow, and
warming temperatures along the West Coast, Western Interior,
Central/Western Brooks Range, and NW Arctic Coast. An overlap of
gusty winds and snow could lead to significant reductions in
visibility at times. Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather
Advisories remain in place for the Yukon Delta north through the
Seward Peninsula and NW Arctic Coast for gusty winds and
snow/blowing snow through Wednesday. A rain/snow mix will be
possible across southern portions of the West Coast as warmer
temperatures build in.
Across the Central/Eastern Interior, conditions will remain drier
overall with more isolated to scattered snow chances, as
temperatures also see a warming trend. Best chances for more
moderate snow in this corridor will remain confined to higher
elevations and in the Brooks/Alaska Ranges.
Snow chances are expected to continue across Northern Alaska
through the weekend, as a series of low pressure systems and
fronts in the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska continue to support
moisture transport into our region. Looking ahead, increasing
confidence supports a ridge of high pressure building in over
Alaska starting early next week, supporting cooler and drier
conditions returning.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Conditions remain mostly dry overall with isolated to scattered
snow showers possible through the weekend.
- A warmer airmass will continue to build into the Interior this
week, with highs reaching back into the single digits and teens
above zero and lows in the single digits above and below zero.
- A colder and drier airmass will return heading into early next
week as snow chances diminish.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- An active weather pattern continues through midweek across
Western Alaska as a series of storms in the Bering Sea bring
gusty winds, widespread snow, and warmer temperatures.
- Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories remain in
effect along the West Coast and at St. Lawrence Island, where
the heaviest snow and strongest winds are expected. Localized
blizzard conditions are possible at times.
- Strongest wind gusts through Wednesday night will peak around
30-50 mph, strongest offshore and at St. Lawrence Island where
gusts up to 60 mph are expected. As the first system moves
north, conditions may briefly improve ahead of a second system
moving in Wednesday.
- Temperatures will continue to see a steady warming trend with
southerly flow. While predominant snow is expected, a rain/snow
in place. A mix will be possible across lowest elevations,
particularly the southern coastlines.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- A series of systems moving north across Western Alaska will
continue to support widespread snow moving into the
Central/Western Brooks Range (including Atigun Pass) and NW
Arctic Coast through Wednesday.
- Gusty winds are expected to continue Tuesday into Wednesday
across higher elevations and coastal regions, leading to areas
of blowing snow and significant reductions in visibility at
times.
- Colder and drier conditions are expected to continue in the
Eastern Brooks Range and NE Arctic Coast.
- Temperatures will continue to see a warming trend overall this
week, with highs by Wednesday reaching back into the teens and
20s above zero and lows in the single digits and teens.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Today through Wednesday Night.
Early afternoon satellite imagery shows a 970 mb low just off the
coast of the Yukon Delta slowly tracking northeast, supporting
gusty winds and snow across the West Coast. This system will
continue to lift NE into the Seward Peninsula, as a secondary 970
mb low builds in the Central/Eastern Bering Sea late Tuesday into
Wednesday, continuing to reinforce snow and winds into Western
Alaska. Snowfall accumulations through Wednesday night with this
series of systems will be highest across the West Coast/NW Arctic
Coast, Western Interior, Western and Central Brooks Range, and in
the Alaska Range. Here is where we are expecting a broad 3-6" with
higher totals in that 6-12" range across the Southern Seward
Peninsula, St. Lawrence Island, and higher elevations of the
Alaska Range/Brooks Range, locally higher across highest elevations.
Wind gusts in this area are expected to be strongest offshore and
at St. Lawrence Island where wind gusts up to 60 mph are
expected. Winds elsewhere along the West Coast will see gusts peak
around 30-50 mph. Due to warm air advection out of the south,
there could also be a few locations for the Southwest Coast and
the Yukon Delta which may have a mix of rain and snow. Here is
where after the intrusion of warm air builds in today, there is
lower confidence on significantly reduced visibilities in blowing
snow, which will continue to be monitored. We have extended the
winter products in effect for the West Coast through Wednesday
night to capture the impacts from that secondary system lifting
north.
Across the Interior, a persistent cold and dry airmass has given
way to warming temperatures through the upcoming week as broad
southerly flow encompasses the state. Low pressure in the Gulf of
Alaska and Southcentral overnight and earlier today helped to
create a moderate gradient across the Alaska Range, leading to
gusts peaking up to 60 mph through Windy Pass on the Parks Highway
and gusts up to 70 mph on the Richardson Highway north of Isabel
Pass. Snow has built into the Interior southwest to northeast,
with more moderate snowfall amounts expected across the Western
Interior and Alaska Range with lighter amounts further east out
towards the Alcan Border. Isolated to scattered snow showers will
continue through this corridor through the weekend.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Thursday through next Monday.
Ensemble trends have shown little change with most of the region
being influenced by low pressure. The overall energy from the
broad areas of low pressure is going to move into the Gulf of
Alaska towards the end of the week, and the southerly flow will
keep the relatively warmer airmass in place, which could lead to
some of the coastal areas along the Southwest Coast of the Y-K
Delta to get a mix of rain and snow ahead of the low moving into
the Gulf, but then transition back to snow with colder air
advection on the backside of this system. The moisture from the
south is going to expand across much of the Mainland towards the
end of the week, and then going into the following weekend, there
are beginning signals which indicate that a ridge could be
building back in towards the end of next weekend and will continue
to lead to a cooling and drying pattern.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ814>819-824>826.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ820>823-827.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801>804.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-852-853.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ805.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806-807-812-816-817-851-854-
856-858.
Gale Warning for PKZ806.
Gale Warning for PKZ807.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808>810-855.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ811.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
Gale Warning for PKZ816-851.
Gale Warning for PKZ817-854.
Gale Warning for PKZ850.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ852-853.
Gale Warning for PKZ856.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ857.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......MacKay
KEY MESSAGES...MacKay
SHORT TERM.....MacKay
LONG TERM......Stewey
566
FXAK67 PAJK 180641
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
941 PM AKST Mon Nov 17 2025
.UPDATE...Pulled the trigger on a winter storm watch for the
Haines Highway from Klukwan area to the border for this Wednesday
system. Run to run consistency of models seem to place the trough
a bit further north, bringing additional moisture into the north.
With the low to the south and a negative trough axis, a trowal is
expected to develop somewhere along the Haines Highway. The
greatest uncertainty is where the band of heaviest precipitation
will set up. If it sets up around the upper elevations of Haines
Highway, snow melt cooling from very heavy rates could bring rates
exceeding 1 inch per hour. If the band sets up further south near
Haines, then precipitation will likely fall as rain to rain/snow
mix with little accumulation.
&&
.SHORT TERM...As of 1400 Monday afternoon a near-gale force front
is making landfall along the Chichagof and Baranof coast.
Anticipate gusty 25 to 35 mph winds out of the south and east to
continue or build this late afternoon across the Panhandle as the
front moves over the region, with some snow impacts for Haines and
Klondike Highways. As of this writing light snow is ongoing in
the north, with minimal impacts for Haines Highway. Klondike is
seeing more snow given the elevation, but current forecast remains
confident that 24 hour totals from Monday into Tuesday morning
remain near 4 to 6 inches for the pass; heaviest snow before 12 AM
Tuesday. Winds and rain decrease Tuesday before a more prominent
system arrives Wednesday. More info below.
.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Saturday/...An active pattern
continues across southeast Alaska through the rest of the week with
a complex scenario in the books for Wednesday into Thursday. The
impactful change in the long term forecast is the shift in model
guidance to spin up a much more vigorous triple point low or
embedded trough in the southeast gulf ahead of the parent low. The
primary low is still expected to push into the southern gulf by
Wednesday afternoon, however this extra feature will bring
enhanced winds to the southern panhandle and coastal waters by
early Wednesday morning, spreading northward with widespread
gales. Depending on when and where this embedded feature develops,
it could get a jumpstart from the backside of an upper level
ridge over the panhandle just ahead of the parent low at the
surface. Due to this uncertainty in strength and the range of
potential impacts, a high wind watch has been issued for the
southern panhandle including Ketchikan, Metlakatla, and Prince of
Wales Island. For Prince of Wales Island, the southern coast is
the area where the highest winds are expected to occur. As of this
forecast issuance, the timing of the highest winds with gusts up
to 60 mph out of the southeast would be between 9am and 3 pm
Wednesday.
Regardless of track, strong winds will accompany this feature as it
swings northward through the panhandle Wednesday, along with
moderate to locally heavy precipitation. The heaviest
precipitation is still expected to be limited to south of
Frederick Sound. However, a more northward track of this embedded
trough could bring moderate moisture further north, leading to
higher snowfall for the Haines and Klondike Highways, which are
expected to remain cold enough to maintain primarily snow along
higher elevations. Elsewhere, temperatures in the low levels are
expected to remain warm enough for cold rain, with some snow
potentially mixing in with heavier rates along the Icy Strait
corridor and for Haines and Skagway at sea level. This will likely
be dependent upon how long winds in Lynn Canal stay northerly
ahead of the arrival of precipitation. Overall high temperatures
will continue to range from the upper 40s in the south to the low
40s in the north. Extensive cloud cover and persistent
precipitation will moderate temperatures in the northern
panhandle.
Fresh on the heels of this, another system will form south of the
Alaska Peninsula and push a gale force front across the gulf
towards the panhandle Thursday night into Friday, transitioning
the panhandle to predominantly onshore southwesterly flow Friday
into Saturday. This front is expected to bring gale force winds
to the gulf waters along with widespread moderate to heavy
precipitation to a majority of the panhandle. The heaviest
precipitation is expected along outer coastal communities, with 24
hour totals from Thursday afternoon to Friday afternoon 1.5 to
2.5 inches, and locally higher amounts at higher elevations and
westward facing slopes. For communities in the inner channels,
storm totals look to be closer to 0.75 inches to 1.5 inches. As
with earlier in the week, a lack of a significant cold continental
airmass in the inner channels will likely limit any snow
potential for communities at sea level. Haines and Skagway cannot
be ruled out, especially higher elevations of the Chilkat
Peninsula. Also, the track of the low on Wednesday into Thursday
could serve to prime the northern inner channels for snow if it
induces a northerly gradient for long enough. Stay tuned for
forecast updates as the week progresses.
Overall a very dynamic setup with potential for higher land and
marine impacts if this triple point low develops and tracks just
off of the outer coast. Stay tuned for the latest forecast updates
as we head into midweek.
&&
.AVIATION.../Through Tuesday evening/...
Generally MVFR flight conditions across SE AK through the period
with onshore flow behind the frontal passage this evening. Showers
continue across the north as another surface trough pushes
ashore, helping keep MVFR VIS and CIGs. Across the south, IFR VIS
and CIGs could develop, especially for PAKT and PAPG, as a bit of
clearing and light winds behind the front this evening could lead
to patchy fog/low stratus development. Elevated winds will remain
across the northern panhandle, generally 10-20kt with gusts
25-30kts. Slightly higher winds 25G35kts at PAGY tonight. For PAYA
and the southern panhandle, lighter winds less than 10kts
expected. For Tuesday evening, increasing southerly flow aloft
ahead of the next low will lead to LLWS development across the
southern panhandle and along the coast, spreading across the rest
of panhandle tomorrow night.
&&
.MARINE...Outside (Gulf/Coastal waters):Monday afternoon a near-
gale force front is moving into the coast. Seas reached a minimum
of 6 to 8 ft at 11 seconds from the WSW this morning, with a
combination of southeasterly seas and westerly swell bringing
confused seas of 10 to 13 ft as the front moves through this
afternoon. By Monday evening westerly swell becomes more prominent
for the majority of the coast, focused at 10-13 ft near 12
seconds from the WSW. One item of concern is a secondary low
moving into the northern coast Monday night, bringing another
round of strong breeze to near gale force conditions from Yakutat
toward the Fairweather grounds as the parent low moves into
Yakutat Bay into Tuesday morning. Winds increase to gales early
Wednesday morning, more info below.
Wednesdays 970 mb low continues to trend stronger, with
southerly strong-gales likely for much of the coast. The
published forecast has matched this trend, with southeasterly
seas near 23 to 27 ft likely with the associated fetch duration
and wind strength. There is a chance to see storm force winds
Wednesday morning along the outer coast. Something to watch
carefully over the next 24 hours.
Inside (Inner Channels):
Monday morning winds are southerly through the inner channels in
response a near-gale force front moving northeast toward the
coast. Expect the front to push over the Panhandle through the
afternoon with winds building to fresh to strong breezes for most
of the inner channels. Lynn Canal will likely see near-gale force
conditions, with a brief period of gales as the front moves over
this evening. Generally, winds decrease overnight Monday,
remaining below 25 knots for Tuesday. A storm force low moves into
the coast Wednesday bringing gale force winds to much of the
central and southern inner channels. A healthy fetch of strong-
gale force winds in Queen Charlotte Sound/Hecate Strait will drive
stout southeasterly seas of 12 to perhaps 18 ft into southern
Clarence.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ318.
Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
evening for AKZ319.
High Wind Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening
for AKZ328-330-332.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-
671-672.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...AP
UPDATE...NC
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