118
FXAK68 PAFC 030228
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
528 PM AKST Tue Dec 2 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This
afternoon through Friday afternoon)...
While the worst conditions have largely ended for much of
Southcentral Alaska, several Winter Weather Advisories remain in
effect through 7 AM tomorrow morning:
* Along the Parks Highway from Houston north to Talkeetna: Periods
of light snow/freezing rain continue through tomorrow morning.
* Northern Copper Valley (Richardson Highway mile markers 150 to
200) and Northern Susitna Valley (north of Talkeetna): Up to 5
more inches of snow.
Overall, the forecast aligned pretty well with conditions observed
today. Freezing rain tends to be a borderline phenomenon that is
difficult to forecast, but forecast confidence was unusually high
with this event. There were a few areas where the temperature
forecast was a bit off (observed temperatures were lower than
forecast for Kenai Peninsula and higher than forecast in lower
Matanuska Valley), leading to a few areas where there was less
forecast lead time or where precipitation was more rain than
freezing rain. Still, the impacts seemed to line up fairly well
with expectations.
Looking ahead, another front moves northeastward up the Gulf
towards the Southcentral Mainland. Much of the precipitation will
be focused from Eastern Prince William Sound into the Copper River
Basin as rain/snow, but some precipitation could make it over the
mountains and into Western Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage, and/or the
Lower Mat-Su. If this happens, there is the potential for another
light round of rain or freezing rain. The chance of rain or
freezing rain would be around 20-30% sometime tomorrow morning
through the early afternoon, though timing is uncertain.
Thursday will mark the transition day for Southcentral AK as we
move from this warm pattern featuring repeat freezing rain threats
to a much colder, drier pattern. Several model solutions are
generating light precipitation across a wide swatch of
Southcentral as a trough dropping down from the Arctic interacts
with the moisture in place from the pre-existing frontal zone.
Confidence is admittedly low for Thursday precip, but conditions
may align for a shot of snow for many areas before the intrusion
of significantly colder, drier air.
-Chen/Brown
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...
The strong low in the Bering is currently located south of the
Pribilof Islands. This low is bringing storm force winds in the
Pribilof Islands and gale force winds along the Kuskokwim Delta
coast. The low is also advecting warm air and moisture into the
Southwest Mainland. This warm air has allowed temperatures to warm
above freezing aloft while temperatures remain below freezing in
the much of Kuskokwim Delta and the lower Kuskokwim Valley.
However, the whole column of temperatures remained below freezing
along the southwest and west coast of the Kuskokwim Delta and
Nunivak Island. This, along with gusty winds is allowing for
blizzard conditions for these regions. Meanwhile, Bristol Bay is
warm enough for precipitation types to remain as rain. Gap
regions in the Eastern Aleutians and the Alaska Peninsula are
seeing gusty storm force winds due to favorable wind directions
(southeasterly).
By Wednesday, the low will be weakening, but gusty winds in the
Bering and precipitation in Bristol Bay will continue.
Precipitation chances in the Kuskokwim Delta will significantly
decrease, but some snow/freezing rain showers may still be
possible. Due to this chance, the Ice Storm Warning is still in
effect until 9 AM Wednesday. By Thursday, both winds and
precipitation chances will decrease as a drier and cold air mass
moves in from the north. This Arctic air mass will quickly drop
temperatures across Southwest Alaska, with lows reaching the
single digits in the Kuskokwim Delta and the teens in Bristol Bay
by Thursday night. Also, winds will turn northeasterly. By
Friday, pressure gradients will tighten in the Kuskokwim Delta,
leading to an increase in wind speeds. Looking ahead to the
weekend, this air mass will further infiltrate as an Arctic Low
moves into Southwest Alaska. Winds will become gusty in the
Kuskokwim Delta with temperatures falling below zero. Due to the
combination of gusty winds and below zero temperatures, extreme
freezing spray is possible from Nunivak Island north and west to
Cape Newenham. A Marine Weather Statement has been issued with
more details on this potential.
-JAR
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Friday through Monday)...
Model differences in the long term forecast continue to decrease
forecast confidence, beginning over the weekend and into early
next week. Greatest confidence is in the arrival of an arctic air
mass dropping southward into Southwest and Southcentral Alaska
through the long term period. Gusty northeasterly winds will
accompany the colder air mass with potential for wind chills well
below zero, especially across the Kuskokwim Delta. Winds offshore
of the Kuskokwim Delta coast may also pose a threat of extreme
freezing spray for mariners near the ice edge.
Uncertainty increases more substantially for the Southcentral
forecast. A developing area of low pressure will take shape over
the weekend, though where exactly the low deepens is in question.
A low across the northern Gulf and closer to the coast will
certainly equate to increasing snow for coastal mountains and even
interior Southcentral. A low further from the coast and possibly
further east, will mean drier conditions with colder low
temperatures. For now, the signal is for below normal temperatures
across both Southwest and Southcentral Alaska in the long term.
-BL
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...Low-level wind shear will continue with light northerlies
near the surface and southeasterly winds aloft until a weak
Turnagain Arm wind brings light southeasterly winds at the surface
into the terminal this evening. Winds could gust as high as 20
knots but could be quite variable/intermittent. Winds relax to
light out of the north again by early Wednesday morning. Ceilings
generally remain VFR above 5000 ft through Wednesday morning. At
that point, chances for light precipitation return.
Temperatures cool back below freezing tonight, meaning
precipitation would likely be in the form of another round of
freezing rain, with some potential for light snow instead.
Accumulations are likely to be limited to a light glaze. Patchy
fog is also possible tonight, which could drop ceilings/visibility
to IFR. Chances for freezing rain last into the day on Wednesday,
with more widespread fog potential and therefore increasing
chances for IFR cigs/vsby by Wednesday evening.
Quesada
&&
$$
629
FXAK69 PAFG 022201
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
101 PM AKST Tue Dec 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Precipitation, mostly snow, continues to fall across
the west coast south of Unalakleet and across the Interior.
Expect a transition to all snow overnight tonight as a cold front
along the northwest boundary of the snow begins to push southeast.
Additional accumulations will be 2 to 5 inches for most locations
through Wednesday. High pressure builds for Thursday and Friday
with clearing skies and falling temperatures. Windy conditions are
likely over the weekend for most of northern Alaska with very
cold wind chills expected.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Snow continues across the Interior today and Wednesday, with a
light wintry mix from Fairbanks south today and tonight.
- Total snow accumulations through Wednesday around 3-5" with
highest totals around 5-8" north/west of Fairbanks and in the
Alaska Range and lowest totals around 1-3" SE of Fairbanks.
- South wind gusts up to 55 mph continue through Alaska Range
Passes today, subsiding tonight into Wednesday. Northerly winds
will gust to 35 mph Thursday and Friday.
- Temperatures fall rapidly Wednesday night into Thursday as high
pressure building in will support clearer skies and much
colder/drier conditions. Temperatures in Interior Valleys
dropping to around -20F to -40F starting Wednesday night.
- Windy conditions expected over high terrain and even in some
valley locations especially west of Fairbanks this weekend.
Gusts greater than 40 mph are possible. Forecast uncertainty
remains, but this is a potentially impactful wind event and
combined with temperatures below zero, wind chills will be very
cold.
- A few light snow showers will linger over the far southeast
Interior Thursday through the weekend, mainly southeast of Tok.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Snow continues to increase in coverage across Southwest Alaska
and the Western Interior today, continuing through Wednesday,
with a wintry mix across the Southwest Interior and Lower
Yukon/Upper Kuskokwim Valleys. Conditions remain dry across the
Seward Peninsula and NW Arctic Coast.
- Highest snow totals through Wednesday are expected along a
corridor extending northeast from the Yukon Delta into the
Western Interior, where around 5-10" of snow is expected with
2-5" along the peripheries. Areas north and west of Shaktoolik
to Huslia to Shungnak will see little if any precipitation.
- Total ice accumulations across the Southwest Interior and Lower
Yukon/Kuskokwim Valleys around 0.05-0.20".
- Elevated N/NE winds with gusts up to 55 mph will continue across
the West Coast through Wednesday. Areas of fog, isolated snow
showers, and blowing snow will lead to periods of reduced
visibility at times, especially for the Bering Straight, St.
Lawrence Island, and Southern Norton Sound/Yukon Delta Coast.
- Increasing high pressure out of the northwest will lead to
colder and drier conditions across the NW Arctic Coast,
expanding further south Wednesday through the end of a week.
Coldest locations dropping to around -10F to -25F mid to late
week.
- Windy conditions expected Saturday through Monday from the
Koyukuk Valley south and west. Gusts greater than 40 mph are
possible. Forecast uncertainty remains, but this is a
potentially impactful wind event and combined with temperatures
below zero, wind chills will be very cold.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Temperatures continue on a cooling trend early this week, with
areas of low stratus and scattered snow showers east of
Deadhorse through tonight as a low pressure system works east
through the Arctic Ocean.
- Breezy winds across the Arctic Coast and in the Brooks Range
could lead to areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility at
times through Wednesday night.
- Increasing high pressure out of the northwest today into
Wednesday will lead to much colder and drier conditions to
finish out the week. Coldest locations dropping to around -20F
to -40F starting tonight.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...As of noon Tuesday, the
anticipated band of moisture has moved over Interior Alaska. Snow
is falling north of Fairbanks, though southerly winds gusting
50-60 mph through Alaska Range passes are causing a dry layer than
is evaporating precipitation from Fairbanks south before it
reaches the surface. Temperatures near the Alaska Range are in
the upper 30s and low 40s, and a supplemental 10am weather
balloon launch from Fairbanks showed an above freezing warm layer
from 2500 to 3300 feet. Winds through Alaska Range passes should
trend downward through 10pm as the gradient eases, which will
allow the cold front to the north to begin to pass from northwest
to southeast through the Central and Eastern Interior. All this is
to say that chances for freezing rain remain possible through this
evening before a transition to snow this evening and overnight.
The forecast for 2 to 5 inches across much of the Interior through
Wednesday remains on track.
Across the West Coast, a northerly gradient is keeping coastal
areas quite windy. Snow continues to fall south of a line from
Huslia to Unalakleet to Emmonak and will continue until the front
weakens later Wednesday. High pressure builds in behind the cold
front on Thursday, bringing much colder temperatures and
continued breezy conditions with northeast winds.
For the North Slope, snow will end this afternoon across the
eastern North Slope as a low pressure system moves east. On
Friday, an upper level trough will drop south, bringing light
snow east of Nuiqsut as well as a cooling trend.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Saturday through next Wednesday.
Beginning Saturday, the gradient across the Interior will tighten
significantly. This will lead to a windy and cold weekend for most
areas, especially north and west of Fairbanks all the way to the
Yukon Delta. 850 mb winds may reach 80 knots over the Western
Interior, and some winds will likely mix all the way down to
valley floors. Very cold wind chills are expected with ambient
temperatures zero to 15 below in windy areas and in the 20s and
30s, possibly the 40s below in sheltered areas. East of Fairbanks,
more clouds are likely which will keep conditions moderated.
Windy, dry, and cold conditions look to continue through Wednesday
for all areas except the far southeast Interior, southeast of
Tok, where isolated snow showers will continue.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ824-829-832>835-837>850.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ825-826-830-851-852.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ820-821-827.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801-806-817-853-854.
Gale Warning for PKZ802-851.
Gale Warning for PKZ803-852.
Gale Warning for PKZ804.
Gale Warning for PKZ805.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806-816-817-850-851-853-854.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-856.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861.
Gale Warning for PKZ816.
Gale Warning for PKZ850.
&&
$$
Chriest
963
FXAK67 PAJK 030703 AAA
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1003 PM AKST Tue Dec 2 2025
.Evening and 06z Aviation Update...
No major changes to ongoing forecast this evening as front
continues is trek into the coast, overspreading light
precipitation and low clouds across majority of the panhandle.
Light precip will continue through the overnight period through
much of Wednesday as front pushes inland with overnight low
temperatures remaining steady in the upper 30s to low 40s at sea
level. Winds through tonight will be around 5 mph to 15 mph across
the panhandle, outside of Haines and Skagway which will see
sustained winds around 25mph with wind gusts around 35mph, but
expecting those to slowly diminish into Wednesday morning.
&&
.AVIATION.../through Wednesday evening/
Wide variety of flight conditions across the panhandle this
evening, ranging from isolated VFR & IFR to predominate MVFR with
CIGS AoB 5000ft and visbys between 3 to 6SM within rain and mist.
Through Tuesday night, flight conditions will continue to worsen
as front pushes through the panhandle with high confidence of MVFR
to IFR flight conditions with CIGS AoB 2500ft and visbys around 2
to 4SM by 15z Wednesday morning, persisting through the
afternoon. Winds should remain around 10 kts or less overnight,
except for Haines and Skagway which will to see increased winds up
to 20kts and gusts up to 30kts gradually diminish into Wednesday
morning. Widespread precipitation comes to an end by Wednesday
evening, however again not expecting much improvement in flight
conditions throughout the TAF period.
SE-ly to S LLWS around 30kts around 2k ft ongoing as front pushes
into the coast, as verified by VAD profile winds from PACG.
Anticipating this to continue to push eastward across the
panhandle through the night, with strongest LLWS near 30kts
reaching Petersburg, Klawock, Wrangell, and Ketchikan by 09z to
12z Wednesday morning.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 343 PM AKST Tue Dec 2 2025...
SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- An incoming front is moving into the panhandle this afternoon
and will track through the area tonight.
- This front will bring mainly rain, some increased wind speeds,
and continued warmer-than-normal temperatures that will last
through Thursday.
- Late this week into next weekend, long range models are still
hinting at a weather pattern that has been known to produce
heavy snow. High uncertainty at this time but worth watching
closely.
SHORT TERM.../through Thursday night/...
A passing front tonight is a big character in the early parts of
short term weather story. This quick-moving front will track
through tonight, bringing rain and brief elevated wind speeds.
Total rain amounts tonight will be around a half inch or less, so
not much by SE AK standards.
Continued onshore flow will keep the rainy and cloudy weather in
place over the panhandle. Rainfall amounts tomorrow will be even
lighter than tonight, with most areas receiving less than a half
inch. Light rain lingers into Thursday but the overall trend is
diminishing rain for Thursday.
Overland wind speeds may pick up to around 10 to 20 mph as the
front pushes through. But once the front clears your area, wind
speeds will calm back down and stay on the lighter side through
Thursday.
LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/...
On Friday while one system will likely be passing over the south,
another low pressure will move into the NE gulf with a frontal
trough developing and extending over the northern inner channels.
Meanwhile on the north side of this front, much colder air will
push southward into the area from interior Alaska and Canada,
causing snow levels to steadily fall Friday night through the
weekend across the north. This is looking to bring potential for
significant snowfall to Yakutat, Haines, and Skagway on Saturday
and continuing Sunday. As cold temperatures push southward going
into Sunday, snow levels will fall to sea level across the Icy
Strait area and Juneau. This will cause a change over from rain to
snow with the first significant accumulations of the season in
these areas. Locations like out the road in Juneau will see more
snow than downtown with this type of pattern.
Ensemble models show at least a 20% probability of 24 hour
accumulations exceeding 12 inches, however these models currently
have a warm bias and actual temperatures are likely to be colder.
Our official forecast is trending colder with temps, but expect
them to be pushed colder still with subsequent updates.
Operational models favored for this forecast package were the 12z
GFS and Canadian.
Looking ahead Sunday and Monday, additional low pressure systems
move in while cold air under northerly outflow continues across
the north. This pattern would lead to back to back snowfall events
across the north and central panhandle. Stay tuned to updates
over the coming days on these potentially impactful weather
events, a Special Weather Statement has been issued.
MARINE...
Outside Waters: A front moves in from the west towards the
panhandle tonight through Wednesday morning, bringing a
southeasterly fresh to strong breeze (17 to 27 kt) as the front
moves eastward across the Gulf, with easterly winds up to near
gale (28 to 32 kt) near Cape St Elias later tonight as the front
moves into the NE Gulf coastline. After the front moves through
into tomorrow morning, winds will overall decrease and switch to a
more west to southwesterly direction as onshore flow continues.
Winds continue to diminish into Wednesday night as the surface
ridging develops in the Gulf with winds largely remaining below 15
kt in the Gulf into Thursday ahead of the next low moving into
the Gulf. Seas predominantly 9 to 12 ft tonight into Wednesday,
subsiding Wednesday to between 7 and 9 ft by Thursday.
Inner Channels: Frontal passage over the panhandle tonight
through tomorrow morning will bring southerly to southeasterly
moderate to fresh breezes (15 to 21 kt), with some areas seeing a
brief increase to strong breezes (22 to 26 kt), across the inner
channels as the front passes from W to E. The areas that will see
winds at a strong breeze tonight will be in northern Lynn Canal as
the pressure gradient stays strengthened, from near Point Fanshaw
up to Grave Point as surface ridging strengthens up Stephens
Passage as the front moves in, and Clarence Strait by late tonight
into tomorrow morning. Winds will quickly diminish following the
front even as onshore flow continues, with predominantly a
moderate breeze (11 to 16 kt) across the inner channels by
tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night. Stephens Passage, northern
Lynn Canal and near Point Couverden are expected to stay a bit
stronger with staying at a fresh breeze for longer into tomorrow,
before diminishing as well into tomorrow night. Winds continue
this diminishing trend across the inner channels tomorrow night
into Thursday as ridging sets up in the Gulf.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-033-034-036-053-641>644-651-652-
661>664-671-672.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NM
SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM...Ferrin
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...Contino
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