579
FXAK68 PAFC 200138
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
438 PM AKST Wed Nov 19 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 2)...
While much of the fog is finally dissipating this afternoon,
localized areas continue to impact portions of Southcentral this
afternoon from the Mat-Valley down through the Anchorage Bowl and
into the western Kenai Peninsula. Southcentral remains wedged
between competing weather systems with high pressure between the
two systems and a warm air inversion unwilling to let go of
regional fog entirely. The expectation is for winds to increase
over Southcentral through tonight, as a Gulf low sends an easterly
wave into the Sound through tomorrow morning and a second low
over the Aleutians lifts into Cook Inlet. Winds be strongest over
the Eastern Turnagain Arm and also through Palmer and Wasilla
where a Mat-Valley wind should gust as high as 30 to 35 mph for
much of Thursday. The increasing winds will help remove any
lingering fog while also bringing in warmer temperatures. The
biggest challenge then in the short term is precipitation and
precipitation type.
A quick round of a wintry mix will accompany the easterly wave
tonight across the Chugach Mountains into Turnagain Pass and
possibly into the Anchorage Bowl. Accumulations at the surface
will be on the light side most locations only seeing a dusting,
though up to 1 to 3 inches is possible along the Seward Highway
from near Portage down through Turnagain Pass, Moose Pass, and
Cooper Landing, transitioning to light mixed precipitation as snow
levels rise. Roads could become slick through the morning hours.
Downsloping winds over the Chugach Mountains should limit heavier
precipitation to the Gulf Coast and Prince William Sound tonight
and tomorrow, though the arrival of a low over the Alaska
Peninsula into Cook Inlet will help moisture lift further
northward into the Copper River Basin Thursday afternoon. Thompson
Pass will likely remain all snow with a good 8 to 12 inches of
snow accumulation forecast through Thursday night. Meanwhile, only
an inch to perhaps 2 inches are forecast from Sutton to Mendeltna
along the Glenn Hwy corridor.
Any precipitation that does fall further inland across
Southcentral should be relatively light, with sprinkles being the
likely outcome tomorrow morning for the Anchorage Bowl north into
the Valley. It does appear that a brief window of freezing rain
and a freezing rain/snow mix will develop across the Western Kenai
Peninsula, Anchorage Bowl, and Mat-Valley during the morning
hours on Thursday. Again, however, precipitation amount should be
extremely light with little to no accumulations forecast as snow
level rise to ~2000 ft. Slick road conditions, however, may be
present during Thursday morning`s commute.
Temperatures will continue to warm into the latter half of
Thursday with daytime highs in the mid to upper 30s and the
potential for some locations to see low 40s with the gustier
winds. By Thursday afternoon precipitation should be largely all
rain, and then, just as quickly as temperatures warmed, cold air
advection on the backside of a departing low into interior Alaska
should see temperatures cool and snow levels drop back to the
surface Thursday night through early Friday. On Friday yet another
trough is forecast to push into Southcentral and light snow
chances will return to the region before temporary high pressure
develops on Saturday with drier conditions and a break from
unsettled weather.
BL
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 to 3: Today through Saturday morning)...
Today`s chapter of the Southwest Alaska, Bering Sea, Alaska
Peninsula (AKPEN), and Aleutian Chain starts with two lows in the
Bering Sea; one in the western Bering and one in the eastern
Bering. The low in the western Bering will deliver gusty winds and
showery conditions across the Western and Central Aleutians today.
This low will usher in a colder airmass across the Bering as it
dives southward into the North Pacific by then.
The low in the eastern Bering, currently just north of the
Pribilof Islands, will continue north to between St. Matthew and
St. Lawrence Islands by tonight. Its front will move into the
mainland Southwest coast through today. Initial snow over Nunivak
Island and Nelson Island will turn to rain/snow mix as the morning
progresses with warmer air working in with the gusty southeasterly
winds. Snow accumulations across Nunivak Island and Nelson look to
be light this morning before rain mixes in. Bethel will stay
mostly dry due to strong southeasterly downsloping off the
Kuskokwim Mountains. However, scattered rain and or rain/snow mix
showers could make it over the mountains this afternoon as flow
will turn more southerly.
A North Pacific low, currently between and south of the Central
Aleutians and Eastern Aleutians, continues gaining strength today.
This low will make it to near the southern AKPEN by this evening
and will deliver strong gusty southeasterly winds through the
AKPEN and into southern Bristol Bay. Gusts in the near coast zones
south of Kodiak Island will be around 55 kts tonight and same for
southern Bristol Bay. Of more concern is how this low and
associated upper-level shortwave will interact with the shortwave
currently responsible for the active weather across the Kuskokwim
Delta Coast and Kuskokwim Delta this morning. In addition to
strong gusty winds along the southern AKPEN, heavy rain is likely
starting this afternoon and lasting into tonight. The heaviest
rain corridor looks to be between southern Kodiak Island and Sand
Point, which includes Perryville and Chignik.
A band of moderate to heavy precipitation will setup along the
western Bristol Bay Coast, from the Western Capes to Togiak,
later this morning with the front of the eastern Bering low moving
in. Most precipitation this morning is expected to be rain. As the
North Pacific low moves to the southern AKPEN tonight winds shift
from southeast to east or even east-northeast. Precipitation along
the Bristol Bay Coast and into Inland Bristol Bay becomes moderate
to heavy at times. Due to intense precipitation rates, cold air
aloft looks to be brought down to the surface. Therefore, rain
today will eventually change over to wet snow this evening across
the Bristol Bay Coast and Inland Bristol Bay. Snow may fall
heavily at times tonight. Temperatures will be near freezing
tonight through Thursday. With that said, a Winter Weather
Advisory has been issued for the Bristol Bay Coast, including
Dillingham and Togiak, as well as inland Bristol Bay, including
Koliganek, New Stuyahok, and Aleknagik from 6PM this evening to
6PM Thursday evening. 4 to 8 inches of snow is expected with
locally higher amounts possible, especially along the Ahklun
Mountains. With the antecedent airmass being marginal when it
comes to cold air, precipitation rates will be vital to the
forecast. There is potential for more snow accumulation if heavier
bands set up and persist. However, and conversely, if
precipitation does not fall too heavily, the warmer air could win
out with rain mixing which would lower snow totals. The forecast
and the products reflect a middle ground.
Cold air moves back in across Southwest behind this low on Friday.
Winds will be northerly along the Kuskokwim Delta Coast with snow
showers moving across Nelson Island and Nunivak Island from the
Bering. Blowing snow and reduced visibility are possible Friday
along the mainland coast, and the AKPEN. Another front and low
approaches the Western Aleutians for Saturday as snow showers
continue along the AKPEN. Snow showers across Southwest for
Saturday will remain mostly confined to the mountain ranges. Stay
tuned for further forecast updates, especially regarding the
evolution of the North Pacific set to impact Southwest tonight and
Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...
An omega block pattern will be in place at the start of the long
term forecast period with a dying low in the Gulf of Alaska,
building high pressure over the Bering Sea, and another low just
south of the western Aleutians. The tight pressure gradient
between the Bering high and Aleutian low will create a corridor of
southerly winds up to storm-force through the western and central
Aleutians Saturday night and Sunday. The low will track into the
Gulf of Alaska for the first half of the week, setting up a rex
block pattern with high pressure over the northern half of
mainland Alaska and low pressure over the southern Alaska and the
Gulf. Surface lows spinning up will likely bring elevated winds
and precipitation to the Bristol Bay region, Kodiak Island, and
the north Gulf coast Tuesday and Wednesday while the Copper River
Basin and interior Alaska stays cold and dry.
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...For this afternoon and evening, the potential for fog will
persist. However,a strong front will push into the coast tonight,
but downsloping should keep the area dry and VFR. Northerly winds
will also increase through the TAF period as a low pressure
system approaches the Alaska Peninsula this evening and the
southern Inlet Thursday morning. Wind shear is not expected at
this time due to the strong down- inlet winds, but strong
southeasterly winds are expected above 3000 to 4000 ft.
Thursday has to potential to see a mix of precipitation-types that
will be strongly dependent on the exact track the low takes up
Cook Inlet late Thursday into Thursday night.
&&
$$
020
FXAK69 PAFG 192217
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
117 PM AKST Wed Nov 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Snow continues on the West Coast as a low moves from south to
north over St. Lawrence Island through tomorrow. Isolated areas of
heavy snow are possible, especially in St. Lawrence Island and
southern Seward Peninsula through tomorrow morning. Lighter snow
and snow showers will reside in the Yukon Delta through Saturday.
The Interior will see light to moderate snow begin to develop
Friday afternoon and continue into Sunday. On the North Slope,
light snow will develop as well from east to west on Friday and
continue through the weekend.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Sunny and dry today, clouds increasing tomorrow with snow
showers developing along the AlCan Border north of Eagle.
- Light to moderate snow develops across most of the Interior by
Friday night and continues through Sunday. Several inches of
snow possible from Tanana to the AlCan Border.
- High temperatures in the teens and low 20s with lows near or
below zero through the weekend.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Snow continues for the Bering Strait Region through tomorrow.
Heaviest snow will be in St. Lawrence Island and Diomede with
additional accumulations up to 6 inches in Gambell and Savoonga.
- Locally heavier "ocean-effect snow" bands can bring brief high
rates of snow up to 1" per hour tonight.
- Wind gusts along the West Coast increase tonight, gusting 30 to
40 mph in most spots and up to 50 mph in the Bering Strait and
St. Lawrence Island.
- Weather quiets down gradually tomorrow but light snow lingers,
especially in SW AK and the Western Interior through the
weekend. A few inches of snow is possible.
- High temperatures in the 20s and low 30s with lows in the teens
and 20s through the weekend, coldest in the Interior.
North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Partly clear skies today and tomorrow, but it will become
cloudier through tomorrow.
- Light snow develops from east to west on Friday with steady
light snow from the Brooks Range northward through the weekend.
A few inches of snow are possible.
- High temperatures will be in the teens and 20s with lows in the
single digits through the weekend.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Working from the top down, at 500mb there is broad 491 decameter
longwave trough centered over Wrangel Island. Downwind of this
trough is a 498 decameter low moving towards St. Lawrence Island
through tonight. This progression northwest will help tighten a
pressure gradient resulting in strong wind. In the Interior,
south/southwesterly flow aloft is keeping it dry however, there
will be increasing clouds tomorrow.
A low in the NPAC will move into the AK Peninsula tomorrow morning
at around 493 decameters. This will send a strong front northward
into the Interior late tomorrow and into Friday. The front appears
to run into a 520 decameter ridge over the Beaufort Sea on Friday
causing it to stall and undergo weak cyclogenesis near the Eastern
Brooks Range/northern Yukon Territory. As a weak upper low
gradually develops, it will wrap moisture from the Bering Sea lows
to the Interior. The upper level energy, mid level moisture and
cold temperatures will combine to produce widespread light to
moderate snow this weekend across most of the Interior and North
Slope.
Getting into the snowfall, ocean-effect snow is likely to enhance
some of the snowfall rates in St. Lawrence Island and Bering
Strait Coast tonight. Localized heavy snow along with increasing
wind may result in blizzard conditions. Difficult travel
conditions are expected with low visibility down to one-quarter
mile at times. Additional snow accumulations up to 6 inches
expected. Winter Storm Warnings remain in Effect for the Interior
Seward Peninsula, Bering Strait Coast and St. Lawrence Island.
In the Interior, widespread light to moderate snow from Friday
through the weekend may accumulate pretty substantially in some
spots. There is a bit of uncertainty with where the highest
snowfall totals reside, but widespread amounts up to 4 inches are
expected with localized spots receiving over 6 inches of snow. A
few GEFS, ECMWF Ens and CMC Ens members are showing up to 12
inches of snow in Fairbanks, the White Mountains and Yukon Flats
but they are outliers currently. A Special Weather Statement has
been issued for the Interior and may be followed up by Winter
Weather Advisories or Winter Storm Watches tomorrow.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
High pressure will continue to build for much of the state on
Sunday, bringing drier weather and colder temperatures by Monday.
A low pressure will build south of the Aleutian Islands on
Monday, however the high pressure will be stronger keeping the low
south of mainland Alaska. Ridging will continue through the
entirety of next week, keeping temperatures near or below normal.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ820-821-823-827.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-803.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-852-857-858.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806-812-817-851-854-858.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ807-856.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-855.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ810-816.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813>815-859.
Gale Warning for PKZ816.
Gale Warning for PKZ817-854.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850-853.
Gale Warning for PKZ851.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ852.
Gale Warning for PKZ856.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ857.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860-861.
&&
$$
BB
Extended - SCL
496
FXAK67 PAJK 200618
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
918 PM AKST Wed Nov 19 2025
.UPDATE...Aviation and Winter Storm Update
The frontal system that brought strong winds across the central
coast and southern panhandle and snow for the northern highways
has stalled over the region and weaken, with winds decreasing and
precip lightening up.
While the the high wind warning was allowed to expire of POW
Island, gusty winds up to 40 mph will still be possible through
the evening. Additionally, the Winter Storm Warning was allowed to
expire for the Haines Highway as the heavier snowfall has ended.
However, light snow will continue overnight and an additional 3
inches could fall near the Haines Customs. Snow is also expected
to continue through Thursday for the Klondike Highway, and the
winter weather advisory was expected until 6am Friday.
&&
SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- Gale force front pushes through the panhandle Wednesday night
with another strong front following shortly behind on Thursday.
- Winter Weather Advisory has been extended for the Klondike
Highway near White Pass until 6 AM Friday for long duration
snowfall, with an additional 6 to 12 inches expected through
early Friday morning.
.NEAR TERM.../Tonight/...
A low pressure system sitting in the central gulf has pushed a
strong front into the panhandle Wednesday afternoon. This front is
currently sitting along the outer coast of the panhandle and will
continue moving northeast through tonight before another front
moves into the area Thursday morning. Strongest winds are
currently blowing off the outer coast and up through the southern
panhandle, moving north through the panhandle overnight. Gusts up
to 60 mph in Prince of Wales Island are diminishing through the
evening, therefore the high wind warning will be allowed to expire
at 6 PM.
Expecting light to moderate rain with accumulations around 0.5
inches or less for a majority of communities, with higher elevated
regions seeing between 0.5 and 1 inch. Some of the northernmost
regions may see a rain/snow mix overnight, with higher elevated
areas seeing mostly snow. The northern highways, past mile marker
35 on the Haines Highway and past mile marker 10 on the Klondike
Highway, will see accumulating snow of 3 to 4 inches Wednesday
night. A winter storm warning for the Haines Highway will be
expiring tonight, while a longer duration winter weather advisory
for the Klondike will remain in effect through Thursday.
.SHORT TERM.../Thursday and Thursday night/...
The upper level steering flow continues to remain active across
SE, as an increasingly negatively tilted trough across the Bering
Sea continues to steer impulses along its southern flank up and
into the panhandle. Widespread rain and snow showers in the
immediate wake of a previous front sent into the panhandle
Wednesday night will give way to another organized front on
Thursday.
This second front arriving on Thursday brings with it not only
more rain and wind, but also the chances for more snow for the
Klondike Highway. Accumulating snow through the daytime hours
remains low confidence, as 850 mb temperatures will be marginal,
and snow levels could rise as high as 2500 feet through Thursday
morning as the previous front successfully pushes north. Snowfall
totals during this time frame will be dependent on snow melt
cooling, and QPF rates sufficient to overwhelm the worst of the
WAA. However, this WAA will diminish through the latter half of
Thursday as the pressure gradient goes parallel, winds slacken,
and snow levels begin to diminish once more. As a result, am more
confident in the the possibility for more accumulating snow
Thursday night, though QPF rates will also be diminishing through
this time frame. Think that additional snowfall totals through
Thursday night on the Klondike Highway could range between 6 - 13
inches, as extended the pre-existing winter weather advisory for
the Klondike through Thursday night as a result.
Strengthened winds in the inner channels through Thursday night,
and moved up the timing of the switch to southerly winds in Lynn
Canal. Also increased land-based winds as the second front arrives
on Thursday, and strengthened wind gusts across much of the
panhandle, with strong winds expected for many locations,
including Juneau. Also refined anticipated Thursday snowfall for
the Klondike Highway.
.LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/...
Waves continue to rotate around the low in the northwestern Gulf
through the end of this week, allowing for precipitation to
continue across the panhandle Friday into the weekend. There will
be a general downward trend in precipitation amounts as the low in
the Gulf weakens Friday and Saturday, before ridging begins to
build Sunday into Monday, bringing a drier and colder trend for
early next week.
A shortwave will follow up behind the last wave of precipitation
on Friday, the highest rates being for the late morning through
the evening across the panhandle. Largely expecting between 0.4
and 0.6 inches in 24 hours across the panhandle Friday, with
between 2 and 3 inches of snow in 24 hours for the Klondike
Highway above 2000 ft and less than an inch of snow expected for
the Haines Highway near the border. The snow being expected mostly
in the night and early morning for the Haines Highway and above
2000 ft for the Klondike is due to the higher snow levels and
warmer 850 mb temperatures Friday.
Both snow levels and 850 mb temperatures however will begin to
decrease over the northern panhandle into Saturday from the weaker
onshore flow and less warm air advecting into the area as the low
begins to weaken, and as a high begins to develop to the
northeast / east over British Columbia into Sunday. Precipitation
will linger across the panhandle but largely diminish Saturday
into Sunday, with the highest PoPs remaining along the outside
coastline and southern panhandle by Sunday. The northern panhandle
will begin to rapidly diminish Sunday night into Monday, as weak
offshore flow from the N and E from the surface high pressure
strengthening over Canada while the low diminishes to rather weak
troughing over the Gulf. Snow levels as well as temperatures will
begin to drop into Monday, particularly for the northern panhandle
as 850 mb temperatures decrease to -7 to -9 degrees C, however
the lack of QPF will result in a cold and drier pattern come for
early next week. However, as snow levels begin to drop and
temperatures along with it Saturday night and through Sunday,
there is potential for some rain snow mixing north of Icy Strait
Corridor Saturday night through Sunday. PoPs will decrease
throughout this time frame and becoming a slight chance to chance
Sunday night, and the decreased QPF amounts will lead to very
little to no accumulation even if snow mixing occurs. Even along
the highways, the low QPF amounts Saturday and Sunday will only
allow for around an inch of snow accumulation.
.AVIATION.../through Thursday evening/...
Generally MVFR flight conditions will develop through the night
and continue for most of Thursday as a series of fronts bring
widespread precip across SE AK. IFR VIS and CIGs are possible
under steadier rain, as well as near PAHN where rain may mix with
snow through the morning.
Winds becoming 12-20G22-30kts across much of SE AK as the frontal
systems continue to impact the region. Stronger winds will be
possible for PAJN and PAGY where gusts to 35kts could occur by
Thursday afternoon. LLWS concerns will also remain for the period
as winds 2kt aloft of 35 to 45kts continue.
.MARINE...
Outside Waters: A gale force front is pushing into the panhandle
through Wednesday night, with strongest winds along the eastern
gulf coast diminishing tonight. Coastal buoys currently reporting
southeasterly sustained near gales to gale force winds (28 to 40
kts) with gale to storm force gusts (34 to 47 kts) decreasing
through the next few hours. Wave heights up to 25 ft with 20 ft
southeasterly swell will decrease to 10 to 15 ft overnight with 8
to 10 ft swell. Another strong front will follow close behind,
moving into the gulf overnight and swinging up into the panhandle
Thursday morning. Southwesterly gale force winds will follow this
front through the central gulf, but strongest speeds will only
reach the coast through the early morning hours before pulling
back to stay in the central gulf. Speeds will gradually diminish
to strong breezes to near gales (22 to 33 kts) through Thursday.
Wave heights will increase back up to 25 ft offshore Thursday
afternoon with 15 to 20 ft swell turning southwesterly, but will
quickly decrease to around 15 ft into Friday morning.
Inside Waters: The gale force front is pushing north through the
panhandle through Wednesday night, with southeasterly fresh to
strong breezes (17 to 27 kts) continuously increasing overnight.
Lynn Canal will continue blowing 15 kts or less overnight before
the next surge flips it southerly. As another strong front moves
through the panhandle through Thursday morning, widespread near
gale to gale force winds (28 to 40 kts) will push north through
the channels. Speeds will begin to decrease through Thursday
afternoon, but will still stay elevated at fresh breezes with
spots of strong breezes before decreasing into Friday. Channel
entrances will see wave heights reach 10 to 15 ft with both
systems, dropping down closer to 10 ft in between. The rest of the
inner channels will see around 3 to 5 ft heights increase to 6 to
8 ft with the peak of the front.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM AKST Friday for AKZ318.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ013-021-031>036-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
672.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-012-022-053.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...ZTK
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...Contino
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...ZTK
Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau
