970
FXAK68 PAFC 240535
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
835 PM AKST Sun Nov 23 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
There is very little change to the overall forecast this
afternoon. Our resident Gulf low will finally meander east and
into Southeast Alaska tomorrow afternoon. Areas of fog remain
across Southcentral this evening into tonight, though less
widespread from yesterday. Into the overnight hours chances are
high that fog redevelops and lingers through the morning hours on
Monday. Colder temperatures and the retreating low will maintain
gap winds through Passage Canal, Resurrection Bay, and Valdez
Narrows into Valdez Arm.
The next front moves into the western Gulf later tomorrow with
increasing easterly winds into Kodiak Island Monday night. Current
thinking is that these winds will expand in coverage across the
Gulf, with small craft winds covering much of the Gulf by Tuesday
morning. The strongest winds will be through the Barren Islands
and into Kamishak Bay, with easterly gusts as high as 35 knots.
Southcentral will remain largely dry Monday into Tuesday and the
increasingly drier air mass should help erode more of the fog
tomorrow and Tuesday. The front over the western Gulf will push
into the northern Gulf coast on Wednesday with precipitation
chances returning to coastal mountains and Prince William Sound.
BL
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 to 3: Tonight through Wednesday)...
The large scale pattern across the greater Bering Sea region has
transitioned into a Rex Block formation, with a closed off upper
level ridge centered over Northeast Russia now situated directly
north of a closed off and vertically stacked low moving near the
western Aleutians. This setup is supporting rather strong easterly
flow at and near the surface across much of the Bering and
Aleutian Chain, especially along and north of the frontal boundary
stretching form the parent low south of Shemya out along most of
the Aleutians. Two new lows are developing along the front across
the North Pacific, and both of these new small lows will have a
significant impact on winds near the southern AKPen and eastern
Aleutians as they track northwest over the next day or so. Across
Southwest, most of the region is now seeing offshore,
northeasterly flow develop around the southern periphery of the
strong high anchored over the northern Bering. Stubborn low to mid
level clouds have kept temperatures rather steady-state in the mid
10s to low 20s, and lows overnight tonight could struggle to drop
much below those numbers if the existing cloud cover does not
erode by early tomorrow morning.
Much of the bigger picture for the short term outlook remains
about the same, but a few key changes have been made to the
forecast this afternoon, mainly involving winds and waves around
the pair of lows developing along the front south of the
eastern Aleutians. Confidence for the track of both of these new
lows has improved today, with it now looking likely the first low
will track over Atka and Adak as it moves northwest from tonight
into Monday. This low will help keep a pocket of gale force winds
going over the south central Bering through Monday afternoon, even
as the rest of the front begins to lose definition and weaken.
Meanwhile, the second compact low will similarly enhance winds and
waves as it approaches Unimak Pass near peak intensity on Monday
afternoon. This low now looks likely to track much farther south
and west compared to earlier indications, resulting in notable
changes for expected winds, waves and precipitation near the
AKPen and eastern Aleutians for Monday and Monday night. A period
of gale force winds with Storm force gusts along with moderate
rainfall will follow the low as it heads northwest into the
eastern Bering through Tuesday, shifting from the AKPen to the
Pribilofs as the center pinwheels west into the southern Bering. A
period of especially intense winds could affect False Pass and
Cold Bay given the favorable track for enhanced channeling of
southeast winds through gaps along the southern AKPen. Gusts could
peak as strong as 60 to 70 mph near Cold Bay late Monday night,
depending on the exact track and strength of the low as it crosses
over into the southern Bering. The low will weaken as it wobbles
back south from Tuesday into Wednesday, leaving behind a region of
disorganized low pressure and widely scattered rain/snow showers
across most of the Bering/Aleutians through midweek.
For Southwest, calm and seasonably cool conditions will prevail
along with steadily increasing east winds through Tuesday as the
stronger of the two aforementioned lows moves up into the eastern
Bering Sea. Most of the region will stay dry until late Tuesday
into Wednesday, as an inverted trough lifts up from Kodiak Island
into Bristol Bay. A warmer air mass will also move up with the
arrival of this feature, and surface temperatures could even poke
up above freezing across some parts of Bristol Bay on Wednesday.
Areas of light snow or rain/snow mix will develop along and ahead
of the incoming trough on Wednesday, mostly across Bristol Bay and
the northern AKPen. This looks like the beginnings of what could
become an abnormally warm and very active pattern towards the end
of this week that will be something to keep a close eye on in the
coming days.
-AS
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Thursday through Sunday)...
All attention in the long term should be paid to a likely
atmospheric river event that could span from the Eastern Aleutians
to as far east as the Cook Inlet region Friday and heading into
the weekend.
Diving into the knowns and unknowns, the upper level pattern
looks to become increasingly more amplified Friday morning as a
deep, longwave trough takes shape over the Bering, Aleutians, and
North Pacific with textbook difluent flow downstream over the
western Gulf and interior Southwest Alaska. An anomalously strong
500 mb ridge over Southcentral Alaska, Gulf, and North Pacific
becomes anchored over the weekend, forcing the storm track to
become more north to south, which would track lows from the North
Pacific to the Eastern Bering and northward up the western Alaska
coastline.
Model agreement has decreased since yesterday, but guidance shows
the semblance of a shortwave trough amid the mean upper flow
rotating over the North Pacific as the longwave tries to take a
negative tilt. This combination of forcing develops a surface low
somewhere across the North Pacific and sends it northward towards
the Aleutians and so on. However, location and timing of the low
is poor as of the latest runs of the global models.
Along with being a wet system with periods of heavy
precipitation, the possibility of strong winds are certainly there
depending on the strength of the surface low and its associated
front, though this parameter is of lower confidence. There is also
a question of how much warm air advection the system may bring
into Southwest Alaska, in which case rain and mixed p-types would
likely make for hazardous conditions considering its current
snow/ice cover.
Please stay tuned over the coming days as the forecast comes more
into focus.
-AM
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...Fog and low stratus will prevail over the terminal through
Monday morning. Like yesterday, there may be a period of VFR
ceilings and visibilities this afternoon into early evening as
breaks in the fog develop. However, fog, along with LIFR
conditions are likely to return this evening and persist through
the overnight hours as flow remains both weak aloft and at the
surface. An inversion near the surface will also help low-level
moisture to be locked in at the surface further aiding to the
ingredients for fog development. A developing northeasterly flow
aloft early morning Monday may help to erode and push the fog
bank west away from the terminal by mid-morning Monday. There is
still some model uncertainty regarding this solution. Nonetheless,
it is possible that the rather stubborn fog bank diminishes
earlier on Monday than we have seen the past two days.
&&
$$
370
FXAK69 PAFG 240024
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
324 PM AKST Sun Nov 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A band of snow showers and/or flurries will be transitioning over
the eastern Interior through this evening, and may allow for an
additional amount of 0.5-1" inch (or locally more). This will all
continue to taper off with clearing skies as high pressure
conditions begin to set in through the mid part of the week. It will
remain fairly dry and colder through the end of the week, with some
locations within the North slope and Brooks Range possibly getting
down into the -30s overnight by Wednesday. Going into the following
weekend, the region will begin to see a return of more mild
temperatures with an increased chance of snow, as a series of storm
systems begin to propagate up from the southwest and into the Gulf
of Alaska.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- The steadier snowfall over the Eastern Interior rapidly
diminishes through this afternoon. Storm total snow amounts from
Snotel observations as of 12AM Sunday listed below.
- White Mountains to Upper Chena Dome- 5 to 10 inches.
- Fairbanks Area- 3 to 5 inches.
- Nenana to Delta- 1 to 2 inches.
- Upper Tanana Valley east of Delta- 1 inch or less.
- Expect possibly 0.5-1" (or locally higher) of additional
snowfall within the Fairbanks area and White Mountains through
this evening as another band of snow is currently moving over
the area from north to south.
- Colder and drier conditions return early this week.
Temperatures fall to highs in the low teens to single digits and
lows in the negative teens to single digits by Tuesday.
- Clouds will continue to clear going into tomorrow and through
the mid part of the week. Temperatures decrease further in
valley locations under clear skies as stronger temperature
inversions develop.
- Increasing northeast winds begin tomorrow and last through much
of the week. Areas of reduced visibility due to blowing snow
are possible as are difficult travel conditions over Dalton,
Elliott, and Steese Highway Summits.
- There will be a transition to a warmer and wetter period going
into the following weekend, with an increase in the chance of
snow.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Colder and drier conditions return early this week.
Temperatures fall from the 20s to single digits over the weekend
to the teens and single digits for highs tomorrow. Western
Interior Valley lows fall to the negative single digits
overnight and into tomorrow morning.
- Winds shift east-northeast along the West Coast today through
tomorrow and increase into Wednesday. Easterly wind gusts 20 to
30 mph by Wednesday.
North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Areas of light snow continue on the Slope, Beaufort Sea Coast
and in the Brooks Range through this evening. Additional snow
accumulations will be around 1 to 3 inches with a couple of
spots near 4 inches in the Eastern Brooks Range and near
Kaktovik.
- Colder and drier conditions return early this week.
Temperatures fall from the teens to single digits today, to the
single digits to near 0 tomorrow along the coast. In the Brooks
Range Valleys temperatures fall into the negative teens and
possibly the negative 20s.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
For tonight through Wednesday.
A weak mid-level shortwave is continuing to transition over portions
of the Interior around the Fairbanks area through this evening, the
actual area of low pressure associated with this feature is located
over Canada, east of the Yukon Flats. This is continuing to
transition south and will allow for possibly another 0.5-1" (or
locally higher) in and around the Fairbanks area, and within the
White Mountains throughout the remainder of this evening. Otherwise,
with the exception of some light snow showers within portions of the
western Interior, and along the Arctic Coast due to onshore
northeasterly flow, most areas are beginning to clear out as higher
pressure begins to set in across the region. This will continue
going into the mid-half of the week as a ridge becomes established
over the Chuckchi Sea, and then transitions over into the Beaufort
Sea and enhances northerly flow. As the Mainland continues to dry
out under high pressure conditions, there will be notably colder
temperatures felt across most areas, with much of the Interior
returning back to highs in the singles by tomorrow.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
For Wednesday night through next Sunday.
Ensembles have been persistent in showing that there will be a large
expansive area of low pressure moving in over the Aleutians by later
this week and going into the weekend. While there still remains to
be some uncertainty at this time, and deterministic models have
continued to struggle with being consistent in terms of the
progression of some of the associated major shortwaves embedded with
this feature. There is, however, agreeance with the ensembles
showing that this will tap into moisture streaming up from 20N
(displaying the characteristics of an atmospheric river), which may
prove to be impactful for the region, depending on the track.
Because there is an ample amount of moisture, and warm air being
advected up with this, there could be some possible icing issues
within portions of the southern Interior and within the Tanana River
Valley. This will all be depended on the tracks of these systems
coming up into the Bering Strait through the following weekend,
although at this time they are too inconsistent to be considered
reliable and will need to evaluated in the upcoming days.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ801-804>806-852.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-803.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ807.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817-854.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ850-853.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ852.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ854-856.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ857.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ858.
&&
$$
Stewey
871
FXAK67 PAJK 240639
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
939 PM AKST Sun Nov 23 2025
.UPDATE...to add the 06Z aviation discussion...
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- Active pattern continues through Monday with rain/snow mix for
most areas.
- Winter weather advisory out for Haines for 4 to 6 inches of snow
on Monday.
- Offshore flow is looking more likely for the middle of next week
bringing colder temperatures and clearing skies to most of the
panhandle.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Current cool, settled weather conditions across
Southeast Alaska tonight will give way to a more dynamic pattern
as an approaching frontal system pushes moisture into the
panhandle. Current along the coastline, light precipitation and
drizzle have been reported with temperatures in the upper 30s to
lower 40s. In contrast for northern areas, cold air remains in
place, supporting flurries and light snow. Current guidance has
precipitation moving in slightly faster, with the Juneau area
seeing a mix of rain and snow showers late this evening. Looking
to see primarily rain in the Juneau, Gustavus, and Hoonah area by
Monday morning as the shallow, stable cold pool is eroded away by
the incoming frontal system.
Up north near Haines and Skagway is the main impactful elements of
this upcoming system for very early tomorrow morning through the
day. The aforementioned cold pool in the northern panhandle looks
substantially more impressive both in height and stability,
steadily reinforced by northerly winds. A frontogenesis band is
expected to develop almost directly on the Haines area, generating
substantial lift, particularly in the dendritic growth zone.
The only problem with this setup is the uncertainty in moisture
within the atmosphere between 850-500 mb. If the atmosphere is
sufficiently saturated, Haines could very easily see warning level
snow, but the likelihood of occurrence is only around 50%.
Sticking with an advisory for 4-6 inches, and will look towards
latest guidance to see if an upgrade is necessary.
.LONG TERM...For the start of the long term, conditions continue to
remain unsettled. Ensemble guidance is still having a hard time
nailing down specific details as well as deterministic for the
start of the long term. Right now, forecast guidance looks to be
split into two camps with the deterministic and ensemble guidance
for the Euro and Canadian coming together for a more consistent
solution. The other camp is the GFS and GEFS. The Euro/Canadian
solution looks to bring a low farther north and closer to the
panhandle which would increase the chances of seeing rain and snow
showers. The GFS solution looks to keep the low farther to the
south and would favor more of a dry outflow situation. Headed into
Wednesday, it looks like we dry out as high pressure in Canada
becomes the dominant pattern for SE AK. There are still some
disagreements between models on this solution so details could
change regarding exactly what locations dry out. By the time we
get to Thursday, models look to come into more agreement that
outflow will be the dominant weather for the panhandle as high
pressure over the Yukon and British Columbia firmly establishes
control. This will allow for temperatures to cool in locations
that are not usually windy during outflow events while places like
Cross Sound, Lynn Canal, Taku Inlet, and the Stikine River Delta
look to see winds increase. Our attention then turns to a low
pressure over the Alaska Peninsula for our next potential weather
maker. This system is expected to stay west of the area but could
tap into moisture from the south bringing in a significant amount
of moisture to the area. Depending on the location that this low
sets up around, conditions across the panhandle could range from
remaining dry due to high pressure, potentially a significant
rain/snow event, or just a significant rain event if the system is
far enough to the east to mix out the cold air near the surface
and bring mostly just rain. With the disagreement and uncertainty
in the models, this will need to be monitored throughout the week
for updates and changes.
&&
.AVIATION.../Until 06Z Tuesday/...An atmospheric wave rotating
around an area of low pressure in the gulf continues to move
northward through the panhandle, bringing lowered CIGs, primarily
RA for the southern panhandle, & a RA/SN mix & SN for northern
areas, which will lower VISs. Expect CIGs & VISs to mainly dip
down to as low as the low-end MVFR category through the TAF
period for most areas, potentially temporarily dipping into the
IFR category when heavier precipitation moves through. Sustained
SFC winds should not exceed 12 kt at their strongest, & LLWS
values remain rather benign.
&&
.MARINE...
Inside Waters: Inside waters winds are rather light this
afternoon with most areas reporting 15 kt or less of wind. the
exceptions are near Young Bay and Cross Sound which are both
showing E winds to 20 kt. Wind directions are mainly out of the SE
and E. The exception to that is North/south channels north of Icy
Strait which are flowing out of north today. Slight increase in
winds expected for tonight as a weak short wave moves north
increasing winds in the northern half of the inner channels to 15
to 20 kt, but they are expected to diminish into Monday with the
northern inner channels switching to a southerly wind direction
mid day Monday. Winds are then expected to stay light into Monday
night before a general switch to a more northerly direction is
forecast for Tuesday as a storm system moves south of the area.
Seas are primarily wind wave up to 3 to 4 ft and will generally
stay that height or less through Tuesday. Higher seas near Ocean
Entrances tonight into early Monday as SW swell up to 6 ft in the
gulf gradually diminishes into Monday night.
Outside Waters:
Lingering low pressure in the central gulf is producing some 20 kt
winds E winds for the northern gulf and 20 kt W winds for the
southern gulf today. These winds are expected to gradually
diminish and become mostly Southerly by Monday afternoon as the
gulf low diminishes away. As a new low moves by to the south of
the area on Monday night into Tuesday, gulf winds will continue to
shift to SE and then E by Tuesday and will start increasing to
near 25 kt in the eastern gulf by Tuesday. Seas mainly dominated
by SW swell of around 6 to 7 ft (with a period of 12 to 14 sec) at
the moment with wind wave on top of that giving combined seas of 9
to 12 ft. Seas are expected to gradually diminish down to 6 to 7
ft through Monday night as the SW swell subsides. However, Seas
will start building again late Monday night into Tuesday as the
increasing SE winds begin to build waves from a southerly
direction, especially Tuesday where seas could reach 10 to 12 ft
across a large area of the gulf.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM AKST Monday for AKZ319.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641>644-651-661-662-664-671-672.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...EAL
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