007
FXAK68 PAFC 231427
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
527 AM AKST Sun Nov 23 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
Overall a rather quiet weather pattern is over Southcentral today
with a vertically stacked low in the central Gulf brining some
showers just up to the coast, but mainly staying offshore. a weak
shortwave associated with an upper level low in the Interior is
bringing some clouds along the Alaska Range, but the precipitation
is expected to hang up along the Range and not spill any farther
into Southcentral. Between these two features, there is weak upper
level ridging over Southcentral producing northeasterly flow over
the region. This setup is leading to widespread fog across the
Cook Inlet region this morning as it did for most of the day
yesterday. This is the main weather challenge for the day: will
the fog dissipate or remain in place for most of the day and into
tonight? The pattern is not changing and the 12Z sounding out of
Anchorage shows a strong inversion up to around 1500 ft which
should help keep fog in place. It is interesting to see that
almost all NWP models are drying out the lowest levels of the
atmosphere as the day today progresses and largely dissipating
the fog by the afternoon. What this probably means is that while
the fog will likely become less widespread through the day, there
will be some that stubbornly persists through the day and into
tonight. By Monday, there is more reason to think the fog should
largely dissipate as the Gulf low moves farther eastward and the
airmass over Southcentral dries out further.
Looking ahead, the next front moves into the western Gulf and
Kodiak Island on Monday. Gusty southeasterly winds will overspread
the region with showery conditions into the middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 to 3: Today through Tuesday night)...
High pressure centered over the northern Bering Sea combined with
a broad low pressure in the Gulf are driving a light northerly,
offshore flow across Southwest Alaska this morning. Weather
conditions across much of Southwest Alaska and the Bering Sea are
dry under the influence of the offshore flow and waning effects of
the Gulf low, with the exception of some light snow showers
continuing along the Western Alaska Range. Across the Kuskokwim
Delta and Lower Kuskokwim Valley, stratus cloud cover is keeping
temperatures warmer than forecast, with temperatures generally
hovering around 20 degrees. To the southwest of this ridge, a
storm force low is centered just south of Attu, pushing its front
into the western Bering Sea and across the central Aleutians. Wind gusts
approached 65 mph in Adak overnight, but will diminish through
the day today as the front works north and east into the Bering.
As early as this evening, a series of triple point lows are expected
to spin up along the front to the south of the Aleutian Chain,
locally enhancing winds as they cross the islands into the Bering
Sea through Monday night. These features are too small and
transient to pin down with precision, so this will be something
to monitor for forecast adjustments over the next two days. Low
level temperatures will stay warm enough for most of the Aleutians
to see rain close to sea level along this boundary through
Monday. The Pribilof Islands could see a period of snow on the
leading edge of the precipitation shield as it moves up into the
Bering Sea on Monday, but temperatures warm quickly with the
arrival of the front, changing snow over to rain.
For Southwest Alaska, conditions are still on track to stay mostly
dry and cold through early next week. Temperatures will steadily
cool through tonight, dropping into the teens across the vast
majority of Southwest Alaska, with temperatures reaching near 10
degrees for interior locations. Increasing offshore winds will
tend to keep most places from cooling too rapidly as a result of
increased vertical mixing even as cloud cover is expected to
clear out by Monday. Northeast winds around 10 to 15 mph could
push windchill values below zero at times from late Sunday into
Monday. Temperatures will begin to slowly rebound from Monday to
Tuesday as flow turns more southeasterly and as the front tracking
across the Bering and Aleutians slowly approaches the coastline,
with coastal Bristol Bay returning to near freezing by Tuesday.
There appear to be increasing chances for precipitation heading
into mid-week, with the most likely areas to see periods of snow
or rain/snow mix along the Southwest coast as early as Monday
night. By Tuesday night, chances for light precipitation spread to
inland areas of Southwest Alaska.
CQ/AS
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Wednesday through
Saturday)...
Starting on Tuesday, a vertically stacked low and large cyclonic
circulation will be centered south of the Aleutians in a weakening
phase. Short-waves embedded within the circulation will track from
east to west from the western Gulf/Kodiak Island across the Alaska
Peninsula and Bristol Bay and continuing westward across the
southern Bering Sea. None of the features look particularly
strong, so would expect areas of precipitation and wind with
typical winter-time impacts. Precipitation-type will be mainly
rain, with Bristol Bay being the only location cold enough to see
snow. The upper low will open up into a trough by Thursday
(Thanksgiving), causing winds and precipitation to diminish.
Meanwhile, a strong ridge in the Arctic will build southward over
the northern half of mainland Alaska. This looks far enough south
to block any short-waves from the Aleutian trough from reaching
interior SW AK or Southcentral AK. Thus, expect seasonably cool
and dry conditions for these areas Tuesday through Wednesday. A
short-wave will dig down the east side of the ridge on Wednesday,
across the Yukon and into the Copper River Basin. This will bring
marginally colder temperatures, though accompanying cloud cover
will likely limit temperature drops. This trough will force the
upper ridge to retreat back northward and allow a short-wave
trough to approach Southcentral on Thursday. Model agreement with
this feature is not great, but ensembles generally support this
idea. With a cold air mass in place over Southcentral, the most
likely outcome would be widespread light snow arriving sometime
Thanksgiving Day.
As we continue to Friday into Saturday, model guidance is in
excellent agreement on amplification of the upper level flow and
development of an Atmospheric River. However, as would be expected
this far out in time, there is large spread in the location of
the ridge/trough and track of a leading surface low from the
Pacific. This evolving pattern does have good potential to bring
higher impact weather to southern Alaska, with strong winds, mixed
precipitation-types, and warming temperatures. Stay tuned as we
monitor the location of key features and identify the areas where
the greatest impacts are most likely.
-SEB/AM
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...Fog continues to undoubtedly be the challenge this morning
over the terminal. Fog, and associated IFR to LIFR conditions are
expected to remain over the terminal through late morning to
early afternoon before eroding, which may lead to a return to VFR
conditions. Fog, and IFR to LIFR conditions are possible once
again this evening and overnight as flow remains both weak aloft
and at the surface. An inversion near the surface will also help
low-level moisture to be locked in at the surface further aiding
to the ingredients for fog development.
&&
$$
707
FXAK69 PAFG 231136
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
236 AM AKST Sun Nov 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
As snow in the Eastern Interior diminishes early Sunday, colder
and drier conditions take over from the west. Winds shift easterly
and increase Sunday night into Monday across the Interior and West
Coast. These colder, drier conditions last through Thursday
before warmer, wetter weather returns for late this week.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- The steadier snowfall over the Eastern Interior rapidly
diminishes through early Sunday. Storm total snow amounts from
Snotel observations as of 12AM Sunday listed below.
- White Mountains to Upper Chena Dome- 5 to 10 inches.
- Fairbanks Area- 3 to 5 inches.
- Nenana to Delta- 1 to 2 inches.
- Upper Tanana Valley east of Delta- 1 inch or less.
- Colder and drier conditions return early this week.
- Temperatures fall to highs in the low teens to single digits
and lows in the negative teens to single digits by Tuesday.
- Clouds clear late Sunday into Monday. Temperatures decrease
further in valley locations under clear skies as stronger
temperature inversions develop.
- Increasing northeast winds Monday through much of the week.
Areas of reduced visibility due to blowing snow are possible as
are difficult travel conditions over Dalton, Elliott, and
Steese Highway Summits
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Colder and drier conditions return early this week.
- Temperatures fall from the 20s to single digits over the
weekend to the teens and single digits by Monday.
- Western Interior Valley lows fall to the negative single
digits late Sunday into Monday.
- Winds shift east-northeast along the West Coast Sunday into
Monday and increase Monday into Wednesday. Easterly wind gusts
20 to 30 mph by Wednesday.
North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Areas of light snow continue on the Slope, Beaufort Sea Coast
and in the Brooks Range this weekend. Snow accumulations will be
around 1 to 3 inches with a couple of spots near 4 inches in
the Eastern Brooks Range and near Kaktovik through Sunday.
- Colder and drier conditions return early this week.
- Temperatures fall from the teens to single digits to the single
digits to near 0 Monday along the coast.
- In the Brooks Range Valleys temperatures fall into the negative
teens and possibly the negative 20s.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
For Sunday morning through Tuesday night.
At the start of the forecast period, Sunday morning, a trough
stretches through the Eastern Interior to a 520 decameter upper
level low in the Gulf of Alaska and a ridge in the Bering Sea is
about to be severed from the south to become a 546 decameter upper
level high near the Chukotsk Peninsula. A 505 decameter upper
level low near the Western Aleutians continues east through Sunday
and Monday, cutting off the ridge and pushing the Chukotsk high
further north and east. This high combines with an existing weaker
high pressure over the North Slope and builds to a 552 decameter
high in the Chukchi Sea by Monday evening. As this high builds the
two lows to the south both weaken. The Gulf of Alaska low moves
further east allowing higher surface pressure to build further
into the Southeastern Interior. As this higher pressure builds
we`ll expect colder, drier conditions to take hold. The low near
the Aleutians stalls south of the Aleutians near 170W and 50N. The
building high and stalled low will allow for gusty easterly to
northeasterly winds across the West Coast to set up Sunday night
into Monday and continue through much of the week.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
For Wednesday through next Sunday.
At the start of the extended forecast period on Wednesday, a
strong Arctic high around 552 decameters sits in the Arctic Ocean
west of Point Barrow and a weakening 518 decameter low remains
stalled near 170W and 50N. Another low is moving in from the
Northwestern Pacific and will phase with the stalled low Thursday
into Friday. This will allow this new low to rapidly strengthen
and expand allowing it to tap into moisture from as far south as
20N. A strong atmospheric river event is expected to impact
Alaska Friday into the weekend.
Model confidence is still low on how exactly these two systems
phase though. That would then determine how the resultant low and
atmospheric river evolve and move. Run to run consistency over
the last few days has been poor with the ensemble means in the
latest 00Z run pulling significantly further north than the 12Z or
00Z runs from yesterday. There is additionally some notable
differences in the intensity of the event between forecast models
and runs. Regardless of its exact placement, the presence of the
feature alone gives high confidence in a significantly warmer and
wetter pattern for Friday through the weekend. Wintry mix and
areas of rain are possible as well as high temperatures reaching
above freezing. Where exactly these conditions develop is still
uncertain however.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ833-834.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ838-842.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ801-804-805-807-852-853.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ850.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ856.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ857.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&
$$
Stokes
641
FXAK67 PAJK 231747
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
847 AM AKST Sun Nov 23 2025
.UPDATE...
Update to Aviation discussion at 18z.
&&
SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- Active shower pattern continues through Sunday.
- Rain/snow mix across the southern panhandle Sunday, becoming
light snow sunday night for the northern panhandle
- Offshore flow is looking more likely for the middle of next
week bringing colder temperatures and clearing skies to most of
the panhandle.
SHORT TERM.../ through Sunday night / Broad low in the northern
Gulf of Alaska persisting through Saturday night. Satellite
imagery showing a band of semi organized showers rotating about
the. The showers are from near Kodiak across the northern gulf
and the south to Sitka-Klawock are. A secondary band is behind the
first out over the central gulf. The atmosphere, may be unstable
enough that isolated thunder could develop in the showers so added
this to the forecast, with most of this threat out over the
eastern gulf coast waters. Have not seen any strikes via the
lightning detection systems so may have put too much on it.
The low will weaken through the day and overnight. High pressure
will build from Northern Alaska through Northwest Canada to
Alberta. Surface ridging in the 1020s to lower 1030s mb, is
starting to build the arctic air pool over area with 850
temperatures beginning to lowers to the minus teens Celsius
which is the start to the bigger cold pools for later winter.
Deep winter may be coming, but not here yet.
LONG TERM...Starting Monday morning, a low in the Gulf continues
to weaken while still bringing some onshore flow to the area.
This onshore flow will likely continue to bring showers to the
panhandle. More specifically, the central panhandle looks to be
the main focus for any precipitation that does fall. As this low
weakens, high pressure is starting to look more likely to develop
in the Interior as well as near the Yukon. With this strengthening
high pressure as well as cold air from the Arctic, the pressure
gradient between the coast and the Yukon is expected to
strengthen. With this increased gradient, winds are expected to
increase through the gaps in the terrain bringing us offshore
flow. With the offshore flow, precipitation chances are expected
to diminish as well as colder temperatures are looking more likely
for this upcoming week. Some places could potentially see their
coldest temperatures since last winter. There is still some
uncertainty in ensemble guidance so the fine details are not as
clear yet. But this pattern change is looking very likely headed
into next week. Headed into the latter half of the week, the
uncertainty continues with regards to potentially seeing a warm up
for the panhandle. But with the cold air in place, any moisture
that moves into the area could fall as snow before switching to
rain. Things could still change going forward and will continue to
be watched.
AVIATION...Shower activity continues to plague the Panhandle,
spreading northeast, complicating the 18z TAF package. While VFR
is widespread, leaned pessimistically on the potential to see -SN
mixing down, diminishing VSBY to IFR/MVFR at times and CIGS AoB
2000 ft. Sunday night precipitation activity increases, with -SN
likely impacting more of the Panhandle. Overall trend is going to
be deteriorating conditions through the day Sunday with increasing
shower activity and snow mixing in with rain for heavier showers,
particularly further inland. No significant surface winds or
LLWS, though some erratic winds cannot be ruled out with heavier
showers along the outer coast with isolated lightning potential.
Multiple flying hazards to contend with over the next 24 hours
from lowered CIGs, to significant drops in VIS due to snow or
rain/snow showers, as well as isolated moderate icing.
MARINE...
Outside: Onshore flow from a departing shortwave northern
British Columbia and southern Yukon will give way to a weak,
somewhat vertically stacked low in the northern central gulf. A
short wave negatively tilted trough will move up from the south,
kicking up southerly winds up to a fresh breeze along the NE gulf
coast down to around Cape Decision. As the associated front moves
against the terrain, expect to see a tip jet develop across the
coast of Cape Spencer, with winds exceeding 25 knots. Waves remain
elevated from westerly to southwesterly swell to 12 ft, with
overall wave heights beginning around 13 ft, and diminishing to
around 7 ft throughout through Sunday night.
Inside: The trough expected to move up through the southern
and central panhandle looks to stall around Icy Strait, keeping
Lynn Canal mostly drainage flow past Sunday night. Wind
associated with this trough look to be around a moderate to fresh
breeze from the SE, steadily increasing over the day Sunday.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...AP
MARINE...Bezenek
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