Latest PA Weather Summary:
000 AWUS81 KCTP 041436 RWSCTP PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046- 049>053-056>059-063>066-050445-
Regional Weather Summary National Weather Service State College PA 1036 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024
We are seeing a cloudy and noticeably cooler start to the weekend across central and eastern Pennsylvania, with periods of mainly light rain. Western Pennsylvania will be milder today, with scattered showers and possibly an afternoon thunderstorm. High temperatures will range from the low to mid 50s across central Pennsylvania to the upper 60s to low 70s in the far west.
A steadier rain is expected areawide tonight, with low temperatures ranging from the low 40s in the Poconos to the upper 50s in far western Pennsylvania.
The steadier rain is expected to transition to showers on Sunday. A few thunderstorms are possible later Sunday, with an isolated stronger storm possible across the west. High temperatures will range from the cool low 50s in far northeastern Pennsylvania to the mid 70s across the southwest.
Temperatures will trend warmer next week, but the pattern will remain unsettled with a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms.
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Latest Forecaster's Discussion:
000 FXUS61 KCTP 041724 AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 124 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024
.SYNOPSIS... -Noticeable cool down for the first weekend of May with cloudy skies and periods of rain -Morning ridgetop patchy fog is possible for Sunday and Monday -Remaining unsettled next week with a gradual warming trend
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Light rain continues to move across central Pennsylvania from SW to NE. Current MRMS shows precipitation bands across the mid- atlantic region from central Ohio to the coast of Maryland. Additional rain will likely develop across southern tier of the commonwealth near the Mason-Dixon line in the early afternoon hours.
The latest hires model guidance supports periods of rain throughout today and into tonight ahead of an upper level shortwave lifting out of the Tennessee Valley. The associated southerly low level jet and plume of higher pwats will overrun a dome of cool/stable air (entrenched within a CAD pattern configuration) to bring 0.25-0.75" of rain to the area. This pattern will also ensure a significant cool down from recent days with fcst max temps in the 50-60F range or 10 to 25 degrees cooler vs. yesterday depending on location. Not much change in sensible wx overnight with periods of rain continuing with lows in the 45-50F range or +5-10F above early May climo. Patchy fog will be possible overnight in the higher elevations with low dewpoint departures and relatively stable air near the surface.
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.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Sunday looks to be another relatively cool day for early May due to a persistent southeast flow off of the Atlantic. However, a slight rebound in warmth is expected over the western and southwestern periphery of the CWA as steadier rain tapers off. Fcst highs range from 55F in the Endless mtns and southern Poconos to ~70F in the far southwest corner of the CWA (near Confluence in Somerset County).
Scattered diurnal convection appears likely to the west of the Alleghenies Sunday afternoon which could spill into central PA late in the day as CAPE values increase. The SPC MRGL risk SWO clips a portion of Warren County. Everywhere else remains under general thunder.
The CAD pattern loses its grip Sunday night into Monday as a weak cold front presses southeast from Lake Erie. This will allow for the possibility of night time convection along the cold front. Guidance has been bullish on fog development and the mention of it has increased in coverage in the wx grids. Fcst lows Sunday night are +10-20F above climo for early May in the low 50s to near 60F.
Temperatures are forecast to bounce on Monday with fcst maxes getting back into the 70-80F range. High pressure and low pwat air should dry out the northern tier, but nearly stationary frontal zone will maintain a chance of showers/t-storms over south central PA through Monday night.
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.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Upper level ridging over PA indicates warm and generally dry conditions are likely Tuesday. However, a warm front lifting out of the Ohio Valley could result in increasing clouds with a PM shower/tsra, primarily across the southwest counties. The bulk of medium range guidance supports a very warm Wednesday with scattered convection, as the area briefly breaks into the warm sector ahead of a cold front pushing in from the Grt Lks.
Model consensus supports a better chance for a more widespread rainfall Thursday, associated with a deepening upstream trough and wave of low pressure riding along the stalled cold front just south of PA. The surface low and deepest moisture is progged to shift east of the area by Thursday night. However, falling heights ahead of the upper trough will likely support scattered, diurnally-driven convection Friday, along with a downward trend in temperatures.
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.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The low cigs will continue to expand over the next several hours, with the remaining TAF sites likely dropping to MVFR or lower by mid morning. Confidence in MVFR cigs after 12z is lowest at LNS, where much of the hires guidance shows LNS on the eastern periphery of the MVFR cloud deck through much of the day.
IFR/LIFR conds have already developed across the western airfields (BFD, JST, and AOO) and will expand eastward towards UNV by 14-18z. However, it may take until evening for IFR cigs to reach the Susq valley. Confidence is low in the timing of the lower cigs. Periods of light rain will continue through the day.
Southeast winds of 5-15 kts will continue through the TAF period, with gusts up to 25 kts. LLWS may become a concern from 00z-18z Sun as a southerly LLJ develops with 2kft winds 35-45 kts, strongest through north central PA. The LLJ will also produce the most widespread and heaviest rainfall during this period.
Outlook...
Sun...Widespread restrictions due to low cigs. SHRA likely with a slight chance of TSRA. Areas of fog poss Sun night.
Mon-Wed...AM fog/clouds poss. PM -SHRA possible areawide.
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.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None.
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SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl/Bowen NEAR TERM...Steinbugl/Bowen SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/Bowen LONG TERM...Fitzgerald AVIATION...Colbert/NPB
Latest Public Information Statement:
000 NOUS41 KCTP 251342 PNSCTP PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056>059-063>066-260139-
Public Information Statement National Weather Service State College PA 939 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024
To: Subscribers: -NOAA Weather Wire Service - Emergency Managers Weather Information Network -NOAAPort Other NWS Partners and NWS Employees From: Greg Schoor, Chief Marine, Tropical and Tsunami Services Branch
Subject: Hurricane Threats and Impacts (HTI) Mosaic Testing on April 25, 2024 Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) in the
National Weather Service (NWS) Southern and Eastern Regions will commence with Hurricane Threats and Impacts (HTI) threat grid mosaic testing on Thursday, April 25. Testing will begin at approximately 1500 UTC. Test activities will take approximately 1 hour; however, NWS dissemination systems may take up to an hour and a half to purge all test data. All test data is expected to be cleared by 1730 UTC.
For the test, HTI grids will be created for hurricane Wind Threat, Storm Surge Threat, Flooding Rain Threat, and Tornado Threat at each participating WFO. Those grids are stitched together into storm- scale HTI graphics. The HTI Mosaic graphics are available in Keyhole Markup Language (KML) format on the following webpage: https://www.weather.gov/hti
The mosaics are also available through the National Digital Forecast Database and on web pages hosted by the Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) affected by the tropical cyclone. These webpages use the following URL format, where “wfo” should be replaced with the 3 digit identifier for the WFO of interest:
NWS Eastern Region WFOs: https://www.weather.gov/wfo/tropical#hti
NWS Southern Region WFOs: https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=wfo#hti
More details on HTI can be found in the Product Description Document: https://www.weather.gov/media/srh/tropical/PDD_HTI.pdf
Periodic software and hardware testing in preparation for tropical cyclone events will continue during the remainder of 2024.
For more information, please contact: Jonathan Guseman Warning Coordination Meteorologist National Weather Service Office State College, PA jonathan.guseman@noaa.gov
National Public Information Statements are online at: https://www.weather.gov/notification/
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