522 FXUS66 KSEW 151056 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 356 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front continues to shift eastward today, with steady snow coming to an end in the Cascades. However, expect widespread showers Wednesday across the area in the cool, unstable post- frontal air mass. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon. Drier but cool conditions then develop later this week until the next frontal system approaches the region offshore this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A cold front passed through western Washington yesterday evening/this morning. This is being driven by an upper level low/trough that will dig southward today across the state. The radar remains active this morning with precipitation continuing in the lowlands and Cascades this morning. A convergence zone is keeping showers going between Seattle and Everett. Snow has been falling at all of the Cascade passes, and the surface temperatures up there have been just below freezing. The winter storm warning will continue through 11 PM this evening, with a couple additional rounds of snow expected through the day today. A couple of the snow-bands later may be able to produce heavier snow rates. For the remainder of the area today, the cold air aloft with the trough sinking over will create an unstable airmass for a chance of convection today. SPC has the coastal areas in a general risk of thunder today, although the thunder risk will encompass the entire coverage area today. The risk is capped at 30% (with the coastline and interior/Puget Sound areas having the best chance of seeing thunder). These showers/thunderstorms are expected to be scattered in nature, with any breaks of sun during the morning able to add to the 200-300 J/kg of CAPE in place. The window for thunder will be from late morning through early evening. The main concerns are lightning, and downpours containing heavy rain and graupel/small hail. No organized severe weather is expected. Highs today remain cool - upper 40s to low 50s in the lowlands, and 30s/40s in the mountains. Winds will remain light out of the west 5-10 mph. The trough moves out going into Thursday. North flow behind the trough will bring in cooler Canadian air into the region. Conditions will be dry going into Thursday/Friday. Main concern will be the potential for any fog/frost/freeze conditions next couple mornings to finish the week. Mitigating factors will be the potential for some cloud coverage overnight, boundary layer conditions and the wet grounds from recent rains may favor some patchy fog development in spots. Light to calm winds and any clearing that does take place will allow temperatures to fall into the low 30s and upper 20s Thursday and Friday morning. Probabilities for a hard freeze are greatest in the Chehalis Valley/South Interior areas, with remaining lowland areas more likely to see frost at this point. If frost/freeze conditions do form, it will be important to protect any plants/crops outside susceptible to the cold conditions. HPR && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Ensemble guidance continues to bring the next low pressure system south from the Gulf of Alaska offshore past the region this weekend. There remains a significant spread in the eastward extent of the associated front across the region, which would impact the potential for additional rainfall this weekend. While there remains some mention across most of the area, the chances remain highest across the Olympic Peninsula and coastline. Regardless, this looks to be a weaker system than the currently passing front and a more seasonable air mass with lowland temperatures returning to the 60s and snow levels returning back above the Cascade passes. 12 && .AVIATION... A cold front moved through the terminals this morning, with a post- front convergence zone producing additional showers in Puget Sound. The showers were rotating around an anti-cyclonic meso-low, with some outflow turning the winds northeasterly at KSEA and KBFI this morning. The convergence zone is expected to last through 16-18Z, with winds turning back to the southwest 4-8 kt. Ceilings this morning have ranged between MVFR/VFR, but will trend towards VFR through the day. A trough will dig southward today, with north flow increasing late tonight/Thursday aloft. Breaks in the clouds with sun today will help destabilize the atmosphere for convection during the day. There is a 20-30% chance of thunder in the terminals this afternoon (most likely window is from 20Z-00Z this afternoon denoted with PROB30). Cloud tops on any storms are likely to remain under 20,000 ft. Coverage will be scattered in nature. Main concerns are lightning, heavy downpours that may contain graupel/small hail, and gusty/variable outflow winds. Conditions will dry going into Thursday with an increased likelihood of MVFR ceilings Thursday morning. Winds become light out of the northwest tonight/Thursday less than 5 kt. KSEA...Vicinity showers with a convergence zone to continue through late this morning. Brief NE winds with this feature will switch to the SW 4-8 kt around 16-18Z (few gusts up to 20 kt before the switch). MVFR ceilings improving to VFR this morning, with MVFR likely Thursday morning. Showers to continue through the day and a 30% chance of thunder (most likely window is from 21Z-00Z). Drier conditions into Thursday morning. Lightning, graupel/downpours, and variable breezy winds are possible with storms in/near the terminal. Winds to become light under 5 kt later this evening (brief variable period possible from 22Z-02Z). HPR && .MARINE... Winds have peaked over the waters this morning in the wake of the passing cold front. Widespread showers can be expected through the day with a few stronger ones potentially bringing lightning and stronger wind gusts. Meanwhile, seas remain 7 to 12 ft over the coastal waters as they increase today. Even if short of 10 ft, conditions will be rather steep with a dominant period around 8 seconds over the coastal waters. Conditions begin to subside later in the week with weak high pressure building over the waters Thursday through Saturday. The next front will approach the waters over the weekend bringing another round of gusty winds and building seas over the waters into the weekend. 12 && .HYDROLOGY... No river flooding is expected during the next seven days. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Cascades of Southern King County- Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PDT this morning for Grays Harbor Bar. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. && $$

615 FXUS66 KPQR 151118 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 418 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS...The back edge of a cold frontal boundary which has spread ample precipitatiion and mountain snowfall across the Pacific Northwest quickly progresses through the region this morning followed by a showery airmass and a 15-30% chance for thunderstorms this afternoon. A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for the Cascades through tonight. Concerns shift to cooler overnight temperatures and possible frost/freeze conditions to round out the week. After a brief stint of dry and warmer weather Saturday, precipitation chances return by early next week although forecast confidence Sunday onward is low. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Thursday Night...Early this morning satellite and radar observations show our latest weather disturbance in the form of a cold-frontal boundary and the wide band of stratiform precipitation dropping NW to SE across western Oregon. Snow-levels are expected to quickly bottom out around 1500-2000ft in the cold airmass behind the frontal boundary by late morning with snowfall continuing to be the primary impact with this disturbance focused over the Cascades. We`re still watching for a potential for 1-3 hr period of dynamic cooling artificially lowering snow levels closer to ~1000ft around sunrise this morning, particularly in coast range and southwest Washington southward through portions of Clackamas County. However, as far as travel is concerned, it`ll be challenging to get accumulation on roadways at this elevation should a period of wet snow or a rain/snow mix occur. The chances for a light slush-up gets higher once you reach 1500ft, particularly in the Cascade foothills/valleys, but due to the warm antecedent conditions most impacts remain 2000-2500ft+. The heavier precipitation early to mid morning helping to drive these lower snow levels will also help to boost snowfall rates at pass level, likely reaching 1-1.5+ in/hr until the frost passes. If you plan to traverse across the mountain passes today, please prepare for winter-like travel conditions. Once we get into the midday and afternoon hours we`ll have transition to a more convective and showery post frontal environment thanks to the core of a upper level low moving overhead. Most models still show Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) values peaking around 200 to 500 j/kg this afternoon leading to a 15-30% chance for thunderstorm development across the CWA. The main time period of focus is 11AM to 7PM today when heating between shower bands is maximized. Convective Allowing Model (CAM) soundings are showing a skinny CAPE profile and along with cooler temperatures aloft, this does support tiny hail/graupel development with any thunderstorms that develop and given that when spring time thunderstorms develop within our CWA, they have a tendency to produce a lot of tiny pea size hail. Also be on the lookout for infrequent lightning, gusty winds, and heavy rain associated with any activity. With the loss of daytime heating thunderstorm chances decrease Wednesday night although showers likely persist. At this point the axis of the upper-level low pulls to our east with increasing heights on northerly flow aloft by sunrise Thursday morning helping to decrease shower activity. The lingering cooler temperatures aloft and partial clearing by sunrise should allow overnight lows to drop below normal bottoming out in the mid 30s across the lowlands. Below freezing temperatures are even forecast for the higher coast range/Cascade valleys, including the Hood River Valley, and potentially in the Cascade foothills mainly around and south of OR-22. Give the moderate to high confidence in these low temperatures panning out, have issued frost advisories for much of the region including a Freeze Watch for the Upper Hood River Valley and a couple of the aforementioned Oregon Cascade foothill zones. A few showers likely lingering through Thursday, increasing in the afternoon due to daytime heating, however, the bulk of the activity will be pinned to terrain features in the Cascades and coast range. Similar frost/freeze conditions may develop again Thursday night into Friday morning and additional highlights may be needed for this period. Even though temperatures warm slightly aloft Thursday night compared to Wednesday night/Thursday morning, weak pressure gradients combined with a building ridge of high pressure aloft and better clearing may prove to be a better set-up for frost development. -99/42 .LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...Looking towards the weekend confidence is high among both deterministic and ensemble guidance in a ridge of high pressure continuing to build aloft allowing temperatures to gradually warm and reduce frost concerns. However the pattern remains rather progressive as models show the ridge quickly followed by another low pressure system on Sunday originating from the Gulf of Alaska. WPC Cluster Guidance does favor this low dropping almost straight southward across the eastern Pacific favoring this low holding just off the OR/WA coast. How far this low holds off the coast will heavily modulate conditions locally. Should it stay more to our west, warmer conditions and broad southerly flow would be favored, That said, any moisture riding south to north within this flow pattern could spell the return of convection. Thus forecast confidence Sunday onward into the middle of next week is low. -99/42 && .AVIATION...As we move through the morning hours steadier rain will transition to showers behind the frontal boundary moving overhead - KAST has already seen an improvement back to VFR as a result. Expect a south to northwest wind switch when the front passes this morning as well. However, as bands of showers move overhead, especially during the afternoon and evening hours, brief drop to MVFR or IFR can be expected. On the whole there is a 20-40% chance for MVFR conditions at the coast this afternoon with a 15-25% inland. It`s also worth highlighting there is also a 20-30% chance for thunderstorms for all terminals after roughly 18-21z today with lightning and gusty/erratic winds the primary impacts. Chances for these storms quickly drop off around 4-6z Thur. KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR conditions and breezy southerly winds likely persist until 14-16z this morning while the primary precipitation band sits overhead. After his point winds gain a westerly component while rainfall turns more showery, but at least it trends more towards VFR the remainder of the TAF period. Keep in mind there will be a 20-25% chance for thunderstorms locally after ~20z through -4z this evening. Any robust showers or storms may briefly drop conditions to MVFR/IFR. -99 && .MARINE...A cold frontal boundary is quickly progressing across the coastal waters early this morning with winds switching northwesterly in its wake. Expect gusts between 20-30 knots the remainder of the day as an area of low pressure drops along the Canadian coast toward the region. This feature will also bring a 15-25% chance of thunderstorms over the waters into the evening hours. Seas are expected to persist at around around 9 to 10 ft, building slightly to around 10 to 12 ft tonight as a fresh northwest swell moves through the waters. The Small Craft Advisory remains in place through Thursday morning for both the inner and outer waters, including the Columbia River Bar. High pressure then builds over the waters Thursday into the weekend as northerly winds return and seas gradually subside to around 3 to 6 ft Friday into Saturday. It appears there`s a 40-60% chance for north winds to gust above 21 knots into Small Craft Criteria on Saturday. Looking ahead there is potential for another weather system to impact the waters later this weekend, possibly increasing winds and seas. -99/DH && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ104>107- 109-114>118-123. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for ORZ121-124-125. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for ORZ123. Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ126>128. WA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM PDT Thursday for WAZ204-205- 208. Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM PDT Thursday for WAZ211. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ210. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ251>253- 271>273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

053 FXUS66 KMFR 151101 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 401 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .DISCUSSION...Precipitation ahead of an approaching cold front is falling across areas west of and along the Cascades, with a few stray showers getting farther east. Tripcheck webcams are showing snowfall around Diamond Lake as well as along parts of Highway 97 early this morning. The most active period for this front looks to be through this morning and afternoon. Coastal areas may see periods of moderate to heavy rainfall, with moderate rainfall also possible into the Umpqua and Illinois valleys. Impactful snowfall over the Cascades is also expected to continue in this timeframe, with SPC guidance keeping 80- 90% chances for snowfall rates to reach 1 inch per hour over peaks and ridgelines and 60-80% chances for neighboring areas. Snowfall over the Cascades continues into the afternoon, but at decreasing rates. Rainfall will reach the Rogue and Applegate valleys in this timeframe. Gusty winds look to develop over broad areas east of the Cascades as well. Precipitation and winds ease into the evening and night. Snow levels drop to 2500 feet late tonight and could reach 1500 feet by Thursday morning. At this point, only scattered post-frontal showers are expected and widespread winter impacts are not a concern. The cold air mass behind the front looks to bring cool overnight lows from tonight into Thursday morning and again from Thursday night into Friday morning. A Frost Advisory will be in place for the Rogue, Applegate, and Illinois valleys for tonight into Thursday, as lingering cloud cover looks to keep temperatures just above freezing concerns. Localized freezing conditions may be possible in some areas, notably in the southern Illinois Valley. A Freeze Watch covers the Thursday night-Friday morning timeframe, as there`s some question how cold that night will get. A number of hazard products are in place to further communicate the impacts of this active period. A Winter Weather Advisory for the Cascades from Crater Lake northward and above 4000 feet remains in place through Thursday morning. A Wind Advisory for most of Lake County as well as the Warner Mountains and areas north of Alturas in Modoc County highlights dangerous travel conditions in these areas. An upper ridge will bring drier conditions and warmer daytime highs on Friday and Saturday. Long-term guidance shows a low pressure system approaching from the northwest. Details for this system remain coarse, with some variations between the ECMWF and GFS outcomes. This system may bring a southerly flow pattern that tends to focus precipitation at Curry County as well as parts of western Siskiyou County, per ECMWF imagery. Or it might bounce off a ridge and linger over the Pacific before moving inland on Monday, per GFS imagery. Initial snow levels are in the 5000-7000 foot range, which would limit winter impacts. Showers may continue beyond Monday, depending on how this system behaves. -TAD && .AVIATION (06Z TAFs)... A front will move across the area tonight and Wednesday. This will result in widespread precipitation through Wednesday afternoon. As a result, expect widespread MVFR conditions to develop. Areas of IFR ceilings and visibilities are expected along the coast late tonight and early Wednesday morning. Probabilities were not high enough to include IFR (ceilings/visibilities) for inland sites at this time, but there is an 8%-18% chance for IFR conditions inland. Widespread mountain obscurations are expected tonight through Wednesday. Conditions will gradually improve becoming a mix of MVFR and VFR late Wednesday afternoon and evening. && .MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Wednesday, April 15, 2026...A front will bring rain, strong winds, and steep seas today. Localized areas of very steep and hazardous seas are possible north of Coos Bay today into Thursday morning. Conditions improve late Thursday, but a weak thermal trough may bring gusty northerly winds to the waters south of Cape Blanco late Thursday into Friday. Another active system may bring additional rainfall and steep seas this weekend. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for ORZ024. Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ030-031. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ027. CA...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for CAZ080. Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ085. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$

849 FXUS66 KEKA 150705 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 1205 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Rain through Wednesday, especially for the North Coast. Near freezing to freezing low temperatures expected to return late week. More rain possible late weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Rain is making its way southward along the Pacific Coast. A rainy morning is expected for the North Coast with a period of moderate rainfall around midday as a frontal boundary passes overhead. Rain totals are expected to be around 1.00" for Del Norte Co. and slightly less for Humboldt Co. Lighter precipitation is forecasted for Trinity and Northern Mendocino Co. Trace amounts of rain (<0.10") expected for Lake and southern Mendocino Co. Strong southerly winds will develop along the North Coast before this frontal boundary passing. After this frontal boundary in Lake Co., while there might not be much in terms of rainfall, strong winds are forecasted to develop, especially for the higher terrain. This cold front will advect much colder air over the region. Snow levels drop in response down to ~1,500ft for Trinity Co. and ~2,00ft for Humboldt Co. This drop is not expected to create much snow as much of the precipitation will be over by this time. What this colder air will do is increase the likelihood for frost/freeze conditions for the entire area on Thursday and Friday. NBM data shows the interior valleys are forecasted to get colder than 30F Thursday and Friday mornings. As growing season begins, it is recommended to cover sensitive plants and take other precautions to protect agricultural property these mornings. The GFS and ECMWF are both signaling for another frontal storm arriving this weekend. The GFS ensemble shows light rain Sunday with heavier rain possible on Monday. The EPS shows almost the same, with rainbeginning on Saturday evening. What these models also show is more widespread rainfall over the area with precipitation accumulations up to0.50" in Lake and southern Mendocino counties. DS && .AVIATION...A cold front will swoop across the area on Wednesday bringing MVFR and occasional IFR cigs and vsby`s in light to moderate rain. Initially southerly and southeasterly winds in advance of the front will maintain mostly MVFR conditions. Conditions will initially deteriorate at KCEC with reduced vsby in rain and S-SW gusts to around 30 kt. IFR conditions will then spread southward to KACV by 16Z with about a 30% chance of vsby from 1 to 2SM and IFR cigs in light to moderate rain. A push of moist and gusty NW winds behind the front will keep the threat for IFR conditions and light rain going into the afternoon hours. For UKI, generally VFR is expected with bountiful cloud cover and gusty afternoon and evening N-NW winds. Surface wind decouples late in the evening on Wed and potential for low level wind shear will increase as robust N-NE wind flow develops 1000-2500 AGL. && .MARINE...A vigorous cold frontal boundary will move across the coastal waters on Wed. Southerly and southwest winds with gusts to 25-30 kt will develop early in the morning and then rapidly shift around to N and NW behind the front in the late morning and early afternoon across the northern waters. Widespread seas building to 6 feet or higher are limited on Wed. There are indications from the NWPS model of localized pockets of steep waves from 6 to 8 feet mostly north of Trinidad by early afternoon for the inner and outer waters. Therefore an advisory has been issued even with limited areal coverage of steep wave over 6 ft. An advisory based on wind gusts from 25 to 30 kt appears more solid, but errors in the wind gust forecast could be as much 10 kt. Just about all the mesoscale models have gusts over 21 kt over a sufficiently large enough area to warrant an advisory for small craft. Northerly winds strengthen and steep wave build Wed evening and overnight, especially south of Cape Mendo. Thus, an advisory has been posted for the inner waters south of Cape Mendo. Gale force winds will be possible (30% chance) as early as Wed evening. Greater coverage and longer duration of gale gusts holds off til Thu afternoon and evening - per the HREF. Thus a gale watch has been hoisted for the southern waters. Seas will build to max heights Thu afternoon thru Thu night. Steep waves are projected to reach 11-13 feet for the southern waters and 9-11 feet in the northern waters. Seas may remain steep and elevated on Fri, however a downward trend will commence and continue into Sat. Another front will approach over the weekend and could bring another bout of gusty winds. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ450. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 2 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ455. Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night for PZZ455. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ470. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ475. Gale Watch from late tonight through late Thursday night for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

179 FXUS66 KMTR 151113 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 413 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1214 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Near normal temperatures continue today and Thursday before temperatures warm Friday into the weekend - Periods of gusty offshore winds, especially at higher elevations, Wednesday afternoon through early Friday morning - Increasing confidence for widespread beneficial rain beginning Sunday into the beginning of next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1214 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 (Today and tonight) A weak fetch of onshore flow at the surface is struggling to maintain patches of low stratus along the SF Peninsula and the Salinas Valley late tonight. Progressive ridging aloft has resulted in very dry air in the mid/upper levels, that will persist into the early afternoon. A sharpening trough to our north will reach the North Bay tonight behind the exiting ridge, with a weak associated moisture gradient out ahead. However, increasing low and mid-level onshore flow will result in a moderate increase in cloud cover this afternoon. Breezy west winds out ahead of the dry surface boundary will eventually become northerly overnight as the upper trough pivots east and south. Temperatures today will be similar to yesterday, maybe a few degrees warmer inland where less cloud cover is expected. Temperatures tonight will still be on the cool side across the North Bay and higher elevations across the East Bay Hills with weak cool advection behind the dry surface boundary late tonight. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1214 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 (Thursday through Tuesday) Gusty offshore flow will gradually spread south across our area after sunrise Thursday. The strongest winds will be at higher elevations, especially in the North Bay and East Bay Hills, but not expected to exceed 40mph. Temperatures on Thursday will be similar to Wednesday, right around normal in the 60s to low 70s. Temperatures overnight Thursday into Friday will be chilly once again with cooler air aloft lingering behind the exiting trough and surface wind fields easing simultaneously under clear skies leading to efficient radiational cooling. Thursday night should be an excellent night for star gazing. Progressive, yet high amplitude ridging bumps temperatures up Friday and Saturday, before the next trough arrives from the Pacific Northwest on Sunday. Consensus diverged in deterministic guidance from this time last night, thus confidence in timing, location and intensity of rainfall is still low. However, it still looks most of our area will see at least some light rain Sunday through Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 413 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 There are a few areas of low clouds /VFR-MVFR/ including patchy mist/fog /IFR-LIFR/ this morning. Conditions improving to VFR today. Low clouds /MVFR/ increasing ahead of a cold front from the northwest tonight and early Thursday morning. Vicinity of SFO...VFR-MVFR. West wind increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon, continuing tonight and Thursday morning. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR-MVFR. West winds 5 to 15 knots. && .MARINE... (Today through Monday) Issued at 353 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Fresh northwest breezes and moderate seas will continue over the coastal waters through today. A mostly dry cold front will push through tonight followed by gusty northwesterly winds Thursday. These winds will build rough seas of 10-12 feet across the exposed coastal waters. Winds will ease back to moderate northwest breezes Friday through Saturday, allowing seas to gradually subside. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

400 FXUS66 KOTX 151145 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 445 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Valley rain, mountain snow, and gusty winds today. - Morning lows near to below freezing through Friday. - Drier and more seasonal temperatures Friday and Saturday. && .SYNOPSIS... A cold front passage this morning will bring lowland rain, mountain snow, and breezy to windy conditions. Snowy travel is expected over the mountain passes this morning. Overnight lows will be cold with near to below freezing temperatures. Warmer and drier conditions return Friday into Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Today-tonight: A cold core upper-level low will wobble into the region delivering windy conditions, cooler temperatures, and periods of rain/snow. A majority of the rain will fall along the leading cold front which has recently crossed over the Olympics and will be sliding through INW overnight into early Wednesday morning. Once the front moves through, the threat for steady precipitation will rapidly end with drier post frontal air moving in. Precipitable water values start off nearly 150% of normal and lower to 50% of normal. Snow levels will also be falling rapidly with snow mixing with rain at times on the back edge of the steadier precipitation though there is little confidence for any snow accumulations in the lowlands. In the mountains, it will be a different story. Snow is already falling over the mountain passes with accumulations noted on Stevens and Snoqualmie Passes. Cams indicate snow also falling on Sherman and Lookout Passes. Winter weather advisories and storm warnings are in place through Wednesday morning to address these concerns for winter travel conditions. Lapse rates will steepen behind the cold front with embedded impulses bringing a renewed threat for showers Wednesday afternoon into the evening. These will likely fall as snow and/or graupel. With the low-levels drying out, cloud basis will be high with minimal accumulations. Would not rule out a dusting to few tenths in the mountains. Today will be windy with persistent westerly winds of 10-25 mph and gusts 30-35 mph. Local gusts to 40 mph are expected on the higher ridgetops and in our wind prone areas of the Waterville Plateau and foothills of the Blue Mountains. Skies will clear overnight for much of Central and northern WA and partially for North Idaho. The cooler and drier air mass will result in chilly overnight lows with many areas reaching freezing or colder. Our low elevation zones in the Western Columbia Basin and Wenatchee Area have reached their climatological growing season and have freeze watches in place. Latest forecast numbers range from 30 to 34F with the biggest uncertainty coming from a light steady wind of 5-11 mph overnight. Will this be enough to keep temperatures from reaching the freezing mark? Thinking it will vary based on location with some areas sheltered from the wind dipping near 29-30F and others remaining closer to 34F. Consequently, freeze warnings have been issued for Thursday morning. Thursday-Friday: A shortwave ridge of high pressure builds over the coast on Thursday then slides inland on Friday. Overall, weather impacts Thursday and Friday will be low. Scattered light snow showers pinwheeling around the backside of the departing low will pass through North Idaho on Thursday with a 30% chance for an additional inch at Lookout Pass. Much of Central and Eastern WA will be sunny and dry but with continued breeziness as west to northwest winds continue to be drawn into the departing low. Wind speeds of 10-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph will be common around Wenatchee, Entiat, Waterville, Ephrata, Moses Lake, Pullman, and Pomeroy. Temperatures will once again fall into the upper 20s and lower 30s Thursday night into Friday morning with potential for freeze warnings to be extended for an additional day. High temperatures will only warm into the 50s to lower 60s, roughly 5-8 degrees below 30-year averages. Saturday-Tuesday: There is good agreement of another low pressure system dropping out the Gulf of AK and into the Western US. There is moderate to high confidence for mild and dry conditions on Saturday. Uncertainty in the forecast starts Sunday and continues into early next with uncertainty with the track of the low into the Western US. It is close to a 50/50 split in the ensembles for the low to dive well south of the INW leaving it mild and dry while the other 50 have the low in closer proximity with rain and mountain snow showers. NBM is carrying 20-25% precipitation chances given the ensemble members that support the showery regime. This will not be as cold as the current system resulting in higher snow levels and mostly rain for the lowlands if any at all. /sb && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS: Rain has increased in across Idaho and eastern third of WA and ceilings have started to trend down. HREF has a 70% chance for MVFR cigs and vis at KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, and KPUW and 30% chance at KLWS. Snow levels will lower with the front and increasing precipitation intensities with 30-40% chance for rain/snow mix at KPUW, KGEG, KCOE and very low chances for any accumulations with temperatures well above freezing. Drier air will filter into the region behind the front will swift return to VFR skies. Additional showers will develop from high based clouds in the afternoon falling as mix of rain/snow but little to no probabilities for conditions to lower below VFR. The main issue in the post frontal air mass will be gusty winds of 20-30kts. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is low confidence for the post frontal rain/snow showers this afternoon given the higher cloud bases and dry air intrusion. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 50 29 51 29 54 32 / 80 20 20 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 47 28 49 29 52 30 / 90 40 40 10 0 0 Pullman 45 29 45 30 50 31 / 100 40 40 0 10 0 Lewiston 50 34 51 32 55 33 / 100 40 20 0 0 0 Colville 51 27 55 27 58 28 / 60 30 20 0 0 0 Sandpoint 45 29 46 29 50 30 / 90 60 70 10 20 0 Kellogg 42 27 43 27 47 28 / 100 60 80 20 30 0 Moses Lake 55 30 59 31 60 35 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 51 33 55 34 60 38 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 Omak 53 31 58 32 61 35 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM PDT Thursday for Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Wenatchee Area. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PDT early this morning for Okanogan Highlands. Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM PDT early this morning for Western Chelan County. ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for Central Panhandle Mountains. && $$

780 FXUS66 KPDT 151147 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 447 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mountain snow will persist through Thursday morning - Breezy conditions in the lower elevations through Thursday - Near to below freezing morning lows Thursday and Friday for the lower elevations && .DISCUSSION...Today through Thursday: Satellite and regional radar imagery show a cold front slowly pushing southeast across the PacNW this early morning, with snow showers along the Cascade crest and across the Blue mountains. The cold front has mostly stalled along the Cascade crest this morning, which has resulted in moderate snow showers impacting the Cascade passes. The cold front is expected to pass over the Cascade crest later this morning and continue to push southeast across the forecast area through this evening, while a closed low is expected to arrive to the region by this afternoon. The best chances for precipitation in the lower elevations will be associated with the frontal passage today, with many locations only seeing rain throughout the day. However, snow levels plummeting to around 2kft behind the frontal boundary and anticipated post-frontal showers will bring chances (30-40%) of light snow to portions of central OR this evening. By tonight, the upper low will move over the forecast area, cutting off precip chances in the lower elevations. AS for the mountains, moderate to locally heavy snow showers will continue to develop across the Cascade crest and the northern Blues through this evening, with snow tapering off late tonight into Thursday morning. Multiple winter weather headlines are in effect today through tonight and early Thursday morning in anticipation of impacts from the heavy mountain snow. There remains high confidence (85-90%) in snow accumulations totaling between 6-12 inches for the OR Cascade east slopes above 4000 feet, 4-8 inches for the upper east slopes of the WA Cascade east slopes, and 5-10 inches for the Northern Blues above 4500 feet. The heaviest snow accumulations are expected to occur with the cold front passage this morning, becoming light to locally moderate through the remainder of today. Breezy winds will continue to impact the region through Thursday as the cold front passage and continued cold air advection into the forecast area result in tightened pressure gradients. Confidence is moderate-high (60-85%) that westerly winds will remain between 15-30mph and gusts 25-45mph. That said, wind-prone areas in the Columbia Basin and Blue mountain foothills will see a 65-85% chance of gusts exceeding 45 mph today as the cold front boundary moves through the region. Otherwise, clearing skies, dry surface conditions, and cold air advection into the region will result in near to below freezing morning temperatures Thursday and Friday. Of particular concern are the Kittitas and Yakima valleys, where there is 80-90% chance of morning lows below freezing both days; the northern Blue mountain foothills of OR are also a concern where there is a 60-80% chance of below freezing lows, especially in areas prone to cold-pooling. Freeze warnings have been issued in these areas for Thursday morning, and will likely need to be reissued for Friday morning. Friday through Tuesday: Ensemble guidance is in good agreement of upper level ridging sliding across the PacNW with dry conditions and light winds by Friday (confidence 75-90%). The forecast area will remain under the influence of the ridge through Saturday, but ensemble members disagree on the evolution of the synoptic pattern Sunday into early next week. That said, there is good agreement in some form of upper low bringing another round of precipitation chances across the PacNW, but confidence is low (15-25%) in timing, intensity, and p-type. Lawhorn/82 && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...VFR conditions to prevail through the period. A cold front moving through the region will bring rain shower impacts to all sites this morning, with associated showers diminishing around 18Z. Post frontal rain showers may impact sites DLS/PSC between 22-03Z, while showers may start off as a mix and transition to snow at sites RDM/BDN between 01-04Z. Winds will increase to 12-20kts with gusts 20-35kts at all sites this morning, with these winds prevailing at sites PDT/ALW late into the evening. Winds will shift to the west/northwest behind the frontal passage this morning and early afternoon. Winds will become light, 12kts or less, at sites DLS/RDM/BDN/YKM/PSC around or after 03Z. Lawhorn/82 && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 51 31 54 33 / 90 40 10 0 ALW 51 34 54 35 / 100 60 30 0 PSC 58 34 61 34 / 70 20 0 0 YKM 55 30 59 30 / 30 10 0 0 HRI 56 33 59 34 / 70 20 0 0 ELN 47 29 51 30 / 20 10 0 0 RDM 49 22 49 22 / 90 30 0 0 LGD 49 29 46 30 / 90 60 50 10 GCD 50 26 45 25 / 100 70 50 10 DLS 53 35 57 36 / 80 20 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for WAZ030-522. Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Thursday for WAZ026-027. OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ502. Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ507. Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ509. && $$ DISCUSSION...82 AVIATION...82

764 FXUS65 KREV 150854 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 154 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * A strong cold front brings winds and chances for snowfall tonight into Thursday morning. * Widespread hard freezes Friday morning. * Quiet weather and seasonable temperatures for the upcoming weekend, with active weather possible next week. && .DISCUSSION... * A cold front passage is still on track for later this evening into Thursday morning. Lastest guidance has not changed the timing or magnitude of the winds from the prior forecast. Pre- frontal west winds this afternoon will gust between 35-45 mph across western NV and northeast CA. However, there is a likely (50-80%) chance for stronger wind gusts exceeding 55 mph in northern Washoe County, Pershing County, and the Surprise Valley this afternoon. With the passage of the front tonight, there will be a short 2-4 hour duration of strong winds along the Sierra Front, with gusts between 35-45 mph. For Thursday, the stronger winds shift south of I-80 toward Mineral and Mono counties, with northwest winds between 35-45 mph. * This is not a very wet system; high-resolution guidance shows a quick shot of light snow and rain with the frontal passage tonight into Thursday morning. Amounts are meager, with a 15-40% chance for at least 0.1" inches of snow. Timing is still on track from prior forecast. Showers will arrive between 5-8 PM tonight in Lassen County and northern Washoe County. Snow showers are then possible between 10 PM-7 AM for western NV and the Tahoe Basin. Finally, snow showers will make their way into Mineral County by around 7-9 AM Thursday. * With the passage of the cold front, Thursday high temperatures will struggle into the low 40s in the Sierra communties and near 50 degrees in western NV. With clearing skies, Friday morning low temperatures will likely (>90%) fall well into the 20s for much of northeast CA and western NV. The warmer urban locations, such as Reno, will be slightly warmer Friday morning. * We will clear out and warm up on Friday and Saturday. But, we will keep an active pattern into next week. Ensembles are in some agreement in showing a larger trough pattern over the western US from Sunday through the end of the 7-day forecast period. There are differences in timing and strenght between the ensembles, but overall it remains active weather-wise. -McKellar && .AVIATION... * A cold front will pass through tonight, creating some pre- frontal wind gusts in the afternoon likely up to 35kt. A wind shift from west to north will likely happen between 08-12Z Thursday morning for terminals around the Tahoe Basin and Sierra Front. * Ridgetop wind gusts from the west to southwest around 45-55 kts through the afternoon, increasing to 55-65 kts tonight. This will result in areas of turbulence and periods of LLWS in the Sierra and western NV terminals after 03Z. * There will be a 20-30% chance for light snow showers late tonight through Thursday morning between 05-14Z. Any accumulations will be minimal, with just a 10-30% chance for up to 0.1" of snow. -McKellar && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ005. Freeze Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning NVZ001- 003>005. Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 AM PDT Thursday NVZ002. Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 AM PDT Thursday NVZ004. CA...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening CAZ070. Freeze Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning CAZ070- 071. Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 AM PDT Thursday CAZ072. && $$

445 FXUS66 KSTO 141913 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1213 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Quick moving system Wednesday-Thursday brings light mountain rain/snow, followed by gusty north winds in the Valley on Thursday. - Dry weather late week into the weekend with near to above normal temperatures. - Next weather system brings increasing rain/mountain snow chances and breezy to gusty winds Sunday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... ...Today... As NorCal sits between the departing trough from the weekend and an approaching trough digging across the Pacific Northwest, a period of dry weather and breezy southerly winds remains on track for the remainder of today. Despite mostly sunny skies, high temperatures look to remain below normal, with upper 60s to low 70s across the Valley and 50s to low 60s at higher elevations. A slight chance for a light shower or two will be possible this evening across northern Shasta County with the approaching trough, but minimal impacts are expected. ...Midweek... Moving into Wednesday, shower chances are expected to gradually increase across Shasta County and the surrounding terrain by mid morning, with rain and light mountain snow showers spreading toward mountain locations north of Highway 50 throughout the day. Snow levels look to remain above 6000 feet through Wednesday, rapidly falling overnight into Thursday morning. Despite this, most precipitation is anticipated through Wednesday evening. Given the progressive nature of the system, NBM probabilities of rainfall greater than 0.25" remain around 30-50%, highest across the Shasta County terrain. Accumulating snowfall of a dusting to an inch will generally be confined to locations above 6000 feet. As dry weather continues at lower elevations through this event, increasing north to east winds are looking likely as the system departs on Thursday. Current forecast trends indicate a slight southward shift in the expected midweek trough, which is expected to introduce a slight uptick in winds further southward to include the entire Sacramento Valley and the Delta. Wind gusts 25 to 35 mph are generally expected, although NBM probabilities of gusts up to 40 mph around 30-50% do exist for locations along and west of the Interstate 5 corridor and north of Highway 50. ...Late Week into the Weekend... As the midweek system continues to eject eastward through the end of the week, breezy north winds are likely to persist on Friday before trending lighter by the weekend. Dry weather is expected to persist on Friday and Saturday as a brief period of ridging aloft builds in over the weekend. This will allow temperatures to return to near to above normal through the first half of the weekend with some Minor HeatRisk possible on Saturday from Sacramento southward. Ensemble guidance does indicate another deepening trough arriving Sunday into early next week. While ensemble guidance is in general agreement that this system will introduce additional periods of active weather, there remain some notable timing differences on when precipitation impacts are expected to begin a this time. Regardless, increasing chances for rain/mountain snow, isolated thunderstorms, and periods of breezy onshore winds are anticipated by at least early next week. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Surface winds in the Valley will be breezy out of the west to southwest in the Sacramento Valley and north to northwest in the northern San Joaquin Valley until around 06Z Wednesday. Surface winds then expected below 12kts. There is a 10-20% chance of low clouds developing in the central/southern Sacramento Valley tomorrow morning between 14-18Z, however confidence is low. A weak system will introduce isolated light precipitation over the northern Sacramento Valley and mountains/foothills after 18Z Wednesday with a 5-10% chance for isolated mountain thunderstorms which may lead to periods of MVFR/IFR conditions. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

622 FXUS65 KMSO 150655 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1255 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Today: Pass level snow, potential minor travel impacts. - A potent cold front drops snow levels to the valley floors tonight and Thursday, bringing the potential for sudden snow squalls in southwest Montana and travel impacts over mountain passes. - A brief warm up with drier weather is expected for the upcoming weekend before active weather returns. Today through Thursday: Moisture continues to stream overhead this morning, with the heaviest precipitation focused across north-central Idaho and northwest Montana. Snow levels currently range from 4,000 feet in northwest Montana to 6,000 feet in Lemhi County; consequently, impacts will remain primarily confined to the higher terrain. There is a high probability (60-80%) that Lookout, Marias, and Lolo passes will receive several inches of new snow. Slick and slushy roadways will remain near the to of the passes this morning, as areas just below pass levels are expected to remain mostly wet. A strong cold front will sweep across the region this afternoon and evening, bringing sustained pass-level snow and scattered valley showers. This front will trigger a burst of heavy precipitation and rapidly plunging snow levels, eventually reaching valley floors. - Localized High Impact Potential: Be prepared for sudden snow squalls as the front moves through southwest Montana this evening. These squalls can cause near-zero visibility and rapidly changing road conditions. Expect moderate travel impacts on all mountain passes through Thursday morning. Uncertainty Details: Significant uncertainty remains regarding valley snow accumulations. Current model guidance shows the deepest moisture arriving concurrently with the cold front, a setup that typically limits accumulation in the valleys; however, heavy localized bursts remain possible. Also, models have trended toward a weak backdoor front in Northwest Montana Thursday morning with an outside chance (20%) of 1-2 inches of snow for lower valley locations such as the Flathead Valley. Friday through Next Week: Showery conditions will persist through Friday as the trough exits the region, gradually tapering off late Friday. A ridge of high pressure will build this weekend, providing a brief but welcome return to warmer, drier weather. This break will be short- lived, however, as the next weather disturbance is projected to arrive by early next week. && .AVIATION...Moisture continues to stream into the Northern Rockies today, bringing periods of precipitation. While downsloping will limit intensity for western Montana valleys, light rain is expected at times. Breezy southwest winds will increase ahead of the front, with gusts of 20-30 kts. A strong cold front is timed to reach north-central Idaho by 15/1900Z, Missoula by 15/2300Z, and Butte by 16/0200Z. Expect a window of heavy precipitation and a sharp shift to northwest winds gusting 30-40 kts during passage. Snow levels ahead of the front will range from 4000 feet in northwest Montana to 6000 feet in Lemhi County, behind the front, snow levels will drop to all valley floors. Though post-frontal moisture is limited, scattered snow showers will continue across the Northern Rockies through Thursday. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Thursday for Butte/Blackfoot Region...Potomac/Seeley Lake Region. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MDT Thursday for Lower Clark Fork Region...West Glacier Region. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM MDT Thursday for Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains. ID...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM MDT /5 PM PDT/ this evening to 9 AM MDT /8 AM PDT/ Thursday for Eastern Lemhi County... Northern Clearwater Mountains...Southern Clearwater Mountains...Western Lemhi County. && $$

359 FXUS65 KBOI 151156 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 556 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain, mountain snow and gusty winds on Wednesday, then snow level lowering to valley floors tonight and Thursday morning. - Subfreezing morning temperatures Friday and Saturday in the agricultural areas. - Warmer and drier over the weekend, with another chance of precipitation early next week. && .SHORT TERM /Through Friday Night/... Issued 322 AM MDT WED APR 15 2026 The next strong upper trough from the Gulf of Alaska and surface cold front were approaching our area this morning with another round of moderate to heavy rain and snow today and tonight. At 2 AM MDT the eastward-moving cold front was already onshore in western WA and OR, extending out into the Pacific along 42N. The supporting upper low was near 50/130 near the BC coast and moving southeastward. Radar was already showing areas of light rain and snow in eastern OR and western- most Idaho but little was reaching the ground. But pcpn will increase around sunrise and continue through the day and this evening. This system is colder than the previous one and will lower the snow level to valley floors late tonight and early Thursday morning, but by then most of the pcpn will be ending. The surface cold front is slated to pass through eastern OR this afternoon and western Idaho this evening. Ahead of the front, heaviest pcpn will fall in the Boise Mountains and west Central Idaho Mountains with snow level near 6000 feet, with rain heavy enough to loosen rocks and mud on steep slopes, so travelers should avoid the Banks-Lowman road and similar roads until rain changes to snow this evening. Total pcpn today through Thursday should be 0.75 to 1.25 inch in our northern mountains, and generally 0.25 to 0.75 inch elsewhere, except 0.15 to 0.25 inch in rain-shadowed southern areas. Total snowfall will be 8 to 15 inches above 6000 feet late today through tonight but only 1-3 inches near 5000 feet, including McCall/ID. Pre-frontal southwest to west winds will increase to advisory speeds in the southwest Idaho Highlands, southern Twin Falls County, and in southern Malheur and Harney Counties. A Wind Advisory has been posted for those areas this afternoon and early evening. The frontal passage itself will be marked by a short period of heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms. After that the snow level will lower rapidly and rain will change to snow, with up to an inch accumulation overnight in the Magic Valley but little or none in the Treasure Valley. Thursday will be windy and cold with lingering snow showers as the upper low moves through, then clearing and quite cold Thursday night. A Freeze Watch has been posted for the Treasure Valley and western Magic Valley agricultural valleys for Friday morning and again Saturday morning, but Friday looks like the colder day. Low temperatures Friday will dip as low as 24 degrees in the western Magic Valley which would be a hard freeze, with 27 to 30 degrees in the Treasure Valley, again cold enough to damage young plants unless they are protected. && .LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/... Issued 322 AM MDT WED APR 15 2026 A ridge building in behind the system in the short-term period will allow for dry and milder conditions on Saturday, with temperatures near normal. Saturday morning will be the last morning (in this forecast period at least) with temperatures near or below freezing across the area. Temperatures come Sunday will warm to 5-10 degrees above normal. This next week, guidance continues to resolve a low digging down from the Gulf Alaska and closing off from the main jet stream, but timing continues to be tricky. Over the past few runs, ensemble guidance has continually slowed the system, delaying its arrival into our area. With southerly flow ahead of this low, a slight warming trend would be able to sustain itself into early next week with a slower arrival. The current forecast carries slight precipitation chances come Monday, increasing to 20-40 percent area-wide Tuesday and Wednesday (where the consensus is starting to lean on the low`s arrival). Temperatures should be able to maintain the slight warming trend and remain above normal through Tuesday in the southerly flow, before cooling to near normal behind the system. Breezy south/southwest winds are anticipated early next week as the low inches closer, becoming W-NW following its passage. && .AVIATION /12Z Wednesday through Thursday/... Issued 556 AM MDT WED APR 15 2026 Precip expanding from NW to SE through the day. low VFR/MVFR ceilings in rain, IFR/LIFR in mtn snow. Snow levels 5-7kft MSL. A cold front will bring sharp wind shifts and intensify precip, MVFR/IFR in heavier rain showers. A 25% chance of thunder along the front. Snow levels rapidly lowering to valley floors following the front. Precip becoming scattered early Thu/AM. Surface winds: becoming SE-SW 10-20 kt with gusts to 20-35 kt. Then W-NW 15-30kt with gusts up to 45 kt Wed/PM with the frontal passage. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-SW 25-40 kt. KBOI...Ceilings lowering to MVFR this morning with increasing showers. Periods of VFR early this afternoon. A strong cold front will arrive around Wed/23z-Thu/00z. The front will bring a sharp wind shift, heavier precip, temporary MVFR/IFR, and potential for graupel/lightning. Conditions returning to VFR following the front. Surface winds: Becoming SE 10-15 kt this morning. Then NW 15-25 kt with gusts to 25-35 kt behind the front. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for IDZ012-014-016. Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for IDZ015-030. OR...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for ORZ064. Wind Advisory from noon MDT /11 AM PDT/ today to 8 PM MDT /7 PM PDT/ this evening for ORZ061-063. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....NF SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....NF

506 FXUS65 KLKN 150740 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1240 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Southwest winds of 20 to 30 mph gusting to 50 mph across portions of Northern NV today * Strong cold front moves in from the northwest tonight. Gusty winds and snowfall will produce minor travel impacts, primarily across northern Nevada. * Generally fair weather in place Friday thru Sunday, though breezes will be present Sunday * Next weather system moves in during the Monday timeframe && .UPDATE... Issued at 1228 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Latest guidance has slightly stronger winds across Elko County from late this morning through late this evening. The Wind Advisory currently in effect for Humboldt County from 11AM this morning through 11PM this evening has been expanded to include Northern Elko County along with the Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range. Southwest winds of 20 to 30 mph and gusts up to 50 mph are expected in these areas. Slightly stronger winds are possible across higher terrain. No other changes to the forecast at this time. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Monday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Fair weather in place tonight with overnight lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s, low 20s in the typical cold spots. Increasing west-southwesterly winds Wednesday as the upper level trof and attendant surface cold front approach from the northwest. Isolated light showers are expected by Wednesday afternoon ahead of the front, though showers look to be relegated to the high terrain. Front begins to move into the forecast area Wednesday night, exiting to the southeast Thursday night. A band of light to moderate snow will be embedded along the front as it traverses the forecast area. Greatest snowfall amounts look to be situated over northern Elko County, west of US-93. 3 to 5 inches are currently forecast. A skiff to 3 inches is generally expected elsewhere. Minor travel inconveniences should be expected, especially during the morning commute Thursday across northern Nevada, based on the timing of the front. Though given that this is a spring season storm and sub-surface soil temperatures are relatively warm. Any slush ups or snow that sticks to the road will do so under heavier snowfall rates. Winds shift northwesterly post frontal and remain breezy. Dry weather expected Friday with lighter winds as a progressive upper level ridge begins to move into the western U.S. Generally fair weather defined by warming temperatures and afternoon breezes, especially Sunday afternoon with notably stronger southwesterly gusts present ahead of the next upper level low and dynamic surface cold front that are still expected to move into the forecast area Monday from the west. This looks to bring additional rain and snow to the region along with continued elevated winds. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in a cold front moving thru the forecast area Wednesday night thru Thursday night. Continued high confidence in this weekends weather becoming moderate in regard to the next weather event and cold front passage in the Monday time frame. Significant change to NBM PoP and weather grids this afternoon with the NBM coming in much too early with regard to the weather event Wednesday. Utilized various model blends and WPC guidance. NBM also coming in much lower than previous with snow amount. Manually edited to maintain the snow amount forecast previously which is in line with latest model diagnostics and ensemble model forecast snow amounts. Maintained NBM forecast elsewhere. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected at all terminals tonight and thru the day Wednesday. Breezes across northern NEvada will ease this evening, though southwesterly winds will become strong on Wednesday ahead of a strong surface cold front that will move thru the forecast area from the northwest beginning Wednesday night. Widespread wind gusts 25KT to 30KT or more will be present at all terminals. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ030-031-034. && $$ UPDATE...96 DISCUSSION...92 AVIATION...92