591 FXUS66 KSEW 061650 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 950 AM PDT Thu Aug 6 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level ridge axis and thermally induced surface trough over the area today shifting east tonight. Low level flow turning onshore tonight. Western Washington still on the backside of the ridge through Saturday with just slight cooling Friday and Saturday. Upper level flow becoming zonal Sunday. This combined with increasing low level onshore flow will give the area a few days of normal first half of August weather. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Satellite imagery showing marine stratus starting to retreat from the southwest interior towards the coastline. Smoky skies continue across the interior. Temperatures this morning already approaching the upper 60s to low 70s, with another warm day in store for Western Washington. Upper level ridge over the area today. Ridge axis along the coast will move inland today. At the surface, thermally induced surface trough over the interior. Stratus will retreat back to the coast then dissipate by midday. High temperatures cooler along the coast today, near 70. High temperatures inland similar to Wednesday, in the 80s to lower 90s. Light flow in the lower levels will keep smoke over the area today with degraded air quality. Increasing low level onshore flow tonight as the upper level ridge axis and the thermally induced trough move east of the Cascades. Stronger onshore flow will help scour out the low level smoke while increasing west southwesterly flow aloft pushes the upper level smoke out of the area as well. Stratus reforming along the coast spreading inland in the early morning hours but remaining west of Puget Sound. Lows in the 50s and lower 60s. Low level onshore flow Friday but temperatures aloft remain warm. 500 mb heights still in the upper 580 dms. Shallow marine layer will have a tough time getting east of Puget Sound and with the warmer air remaining aloft high temperatures will only cool by a couple of degrees over the interior into the upper 70s and 80s. Highs along the coast remaining near 70. Slow cooling trend continuing Friday night into Saturday. Temperatures aloft cooling slightly with a little bit deeper marine layer. Stratus will still have a tough time getting east of Puget Sound. Best chance will be in Snohomish county with the stratus coming down the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Lows in the 50s and lower 60s. Highs over the interior in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Highs along the coast in the upper 60s. Felton && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Extended models continue to show good consistency with 500 mb heights slowly falling in response to an upper level low well to the northwest. Low level onshore flow each day. Stratus developing along the coast in the evening spreading inland in the early morning hours each morning. Stratus most of the time only making it as far inland as the Puget Sound. Stratus dissipating in the late morning/early afternoon hours. Highs inland in the 70s and lower 80s and in the upper 60s along the coast. Lows mostly in the 50s. The normal high in Seattle is currently at its peak of 79 degrees. It will drop to 78 degrees Monday the 10th. The first step in lowering down to bottoming out at 46 degrees December 19th. Felton && .AVIATION... Smoke continues to affect visibility at the interior terminals this morning, with visibility ranging between 4-6 SM. Additionally, IFR marine stratus continues along the coast and should see some gradual improvement towards the afternoon. Otherwise, generally VFR cigs with reduced visibility from smoke today. Onshore flow returns tonight, which should gradually mitigate smoke impacts near the surface. Slant-wise visibility impacts should also gradually improve this afternoon into tomorrow as smoke aloft disperses. Another marine push expected tonight bringing impacts to the coast and southwest interior. Guidance suggests this time the stratus will push slightly more east with the possibility (30% chance) of making it to the Kitsap Peninsula. KSEA...VFR conditions through the TAF period with reduced visibility generally around 6SM due to smoke. Visibility may drop to as low as 4SM at times. Smoke conditions should gradually improve tonight as onshore flow resumes. Tonight`s marine stratus is not expected to reach the terminal. NW winds today 4-7 kt, becoming light SW Friday morning. 29 && .MARINE... A thermal trough will begin to move inland today, with higher pressure remaining offshore through the end of the week. Onshore flow will slowly begin to trickle back into the waters through the end of the week/weekend. This will primarily affect the Strait of Juan de Fuca as early as Friday night, with beginning chances of daily occurrences of winds/gusts over 20 kt into next week. Coastal waters may also see wind increases towards 20 kt, but likely below until Saturday night/Sunday, and Thursday as a couple of weak troughs move through. Seas at 4-6 ft today through Friday at around 8 seconds. This increases to 6-8 ft this weekend into Monday, and decrease back to 4- 6 ft Tuesday and Wednesday before increasing again to 6-9 ft. HPR && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated fire weather concerns across the area the next couple of days with warm and dry weather. Minimum relative humidity values lowering into the mid 10s to lower 20s in the drier locations in Cascade zones 658/659 and surrounding valleys. Olympic zones 661 and 652 zones will see mins RHs fall into the lower to mid 20s. While no significant wind or instability is expected today for a red flag warning, maximum caution over new fire starts still should be emphasized. The thermally induced trough will shift into Eastern Washington tonight. Some uncertainty still remains over potential instability and incoming wind in combination with the eastward movement of the thermal trough. This may briefly promote fire growth late tonight into early Friday morning. Hot and dry conditions hold Friday for most of the interior. Elevated fire weather concerns continuing through the day. Increased onshore flow Saturday into into next week will bring cooler temperatures and increased moisture with much better humidity recoveries across the region. Wildfire smoke over the area today could cause localized impacts to fire operations. Felton/41 && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for Eastern Kitsap County-Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-Foothills and Valleys of Thurston and Lewis Counties-Foothills of the Western and Southern Olympic Peninsula-Island County-Lake Crescent Area Including US 101-Lower Chehalis River Valley-Lowlands of Lewis and Southern Thurston Counties- Middle Chehalis River Valley-Northern Hood Canal-Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Port Townsend Area-San Juan County-Southern Hood Canal-Willapa and Black Hills. Air Quality Alert until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for Cascades of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Cascades of Southern King County-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties-City of Seattle-Downtown Everett / Marysville Area-Eastern Kitsap County-Eastside-Foothills and Valleys of Central King County-Foothills and Valleys of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of the North Cascades-Foothills of the Western and Southern Olympic Peninsula-Grays Harbor County Coast- Lower Chehalis River Valley-Lowlands of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish Counties-Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-Middle Chehalis River Valley-Northern Hood Canal-Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Olympics-Shoreline / Lynnwood / South Everett Area-Southern Hood Canal. Air Quality Alert until 11 PM PDT this evening for Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Thurston and Lewis Counties-Lowlands of Lewis and Southern Thurston Counties-Willapa and Black Hills. Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT Friday for City of Seattle- Downtown Everett / Marysville Area-Eastside-Foothills and Valleys of Central King County-Foothills and Valleys of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of the North Cascades-Lowlands of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish Counties-Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-Shoreline / Lynnwood / South Everett Area. PZ...None. && $$

824 FXUS66 KPQR 062120 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 220 PM PDT Thu Aug 6 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry conditions continue through tomorrow as high pressure slowly loses control of the region. Still expecting upper 80s to around 90 degrees tomorrow, yielding moderate HeatRisk for most lowland locations. Temperatures moderate over the weekend with renewed onshore flow keeping smoke pinned east of the Cascade crests. Near normal summertime weather conditions are anticipated Monday through the middle next week. No precipitation expected during the next 7 days across northwest OR or southwest WA. && .DISCUSSION...Tonight through Wednesday...The latest observations across the area indicate lowland temperatures warming into the 80s for most locations with mostly clear skies. Satellite imagery depicts smoke lingering over most locations outside of the coastal areas. Easterly winds have shifted more west to northwesterly as the upper level trough axis shifts east toward the Great Basin. This has helped stop smoke from eastern wildfires from spreading into NW OR and SW WA. Temperatures expected to remain warm with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s expected for interior lowlands and 60s along the coast. A Heat Advisory remains in effect across the inland valleys through this evening highlighting the increased risk of heat-related illnesses. In areas with Air Quality Advisories in effect, it is recommended to keep windows and door shut to prevent smoke from going indoors. Something as simple as a large box fan with a damp towel draped over the front of it can provide effective cooling given the dry airmass in place today if you`re seeking some alternative means of relief. Smoke is expected to linger into Friday but increasing onshore flow is expected to advect cleaner air in from the northwest. Smoke concerns will continue to trend lower except near ongoing wildfires which will persist as crews continue to work on putting them out. The upper level ridge will continue to loosen its grip over the PacNW as it shifts farther east, supporting gradually lower high temperatures into next week. Friday is still expected to be on the warmer side with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 across the interior lowlands. Saturday temps cool a couple degrees into the mid to upper 80s and further on Sunday into the low and mid 80s. Temps along the coast are expected to stay steady in the 60s each afternoon. Marine stratus is expected to influence the coast each night and early morning with low chances for stratus to push past the coast range each night. If you`re searching for any rainfall chances headed through the middle to end of next week you`re likely out of luck as there are no signs of any appreciable precipitation for western OR and southwestern WA headed into the middle of August. -19 && .AVIATION...Through 00Z Fri...Satellite imagery and terminal observations as of early Thursday afternoon depicts IFR/MVFR stratus along the coast with hazy skies from wildfire smoke across the Willamette Valley. Marine stratus continues to dissipate, favoring a brief improvement to VFR at KAST between 21z Thu-00z Fri. Further south toward KONP, high confidence for IFR stratus holding on all day. Tonight, IFR stratus returns to KAST as low level conditions moisten. Light northwesterly winds have helped clear out the smoke from KPDX, but smoke continues to linger across the other Valley terminals and bringing VIS reductions of 3-4 SM. Northwesterly winds will continue to gradually push smoke eastward today, gradually improving VIS back to VFR after 00z Fri. VFR conditions prevail for the rest of the TAF period for Valley terminals. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions at KPDX while east metro locations including KTTD remain in 4SM VIS due to wildfire smoke. Gradual improvement in VIS expected through this evening as smoke gets pushed eastward from northwesterly winds. VFR through the rest of the TAF period. -10 && .MARINE...High pressure at the surface over the eastern Pacific keeps northerly winds in place the remainder of the week through the weekend and into next week as well. Confidence is moderate to high both seas and winds remain below Small Craft criteria through today and Friday. However, winds increase later on Saturday with the NBM projecting a 40-70% chance for at least isolated wind gusts up to 25 kt Saturday evening. Similar probabilities are present during the afternoon/evening hours into early next week so Small Craft Advisories may be needed yet again, mainly across the outer waters. Seas hold around 4-7 feet at 7-8 seconds over the next 5-7 days. -99/10 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ108>118. WA...Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for WAZ204>208. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

316 FXUS66 KMFR 062136 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 236 PM PDT Thu Aug 6 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Hot, dry weather continues this afternoon through Friday. * Temperatures trend cooler by Saturday with more zonal flow. * Smoke from fires around the region will produce unhealthy air quality over some areas. * No chances for thunderstorms until the middle of the month. && .DISCUSSION... Smoke and heat are the main weather hazards over the forecast area this afternoon and again on Friday. It looks like temperatures will still push into the 100`s in our westside valleys Friday afternoon, yet short of any records. In addition, models are anticipating a gradual cool off as the thermal trough has moved eastward and the 500 mb ridge slightly weakens this weekend. We`ll also see some stronger westerly flow aloft, which will push smoke higher in the atmosphere eastwards. During the morning hours, we`ll get our usual south west winds over the forecast area before breezy north to northwest wind sets up during the afternoon and evening hours. This will result in smoke from the Wright Springs fire hovering around Klamath Falls for the next few days. The winds from the Wood Rat fire popping up near Ruch will push smoke into the Rogue Valley and air quality will likely deteriorate over the next 24 hours. 500 mb heights become more zonal for most of the weekend before a short wave moves through the Pacific Northwest around the Saturday timeframe. We looked through the ensembles and we don`t see any chance of showers or thunderstorms over our forecast area as this trough moves through. Another wave also appears to develop along the coast during the Tuesday timeframe with no anticipated impacts around our region. The only other weather feature to mention is around next week when the models are anticipating another deeper wave to move into the Pacific Northwest around Thursday. One would expect a few thunderstorms to be in the forecast, although it is looking fairly dry around Oregon, perhaps because the trough trajectory is dropping in from the north west off the Gulf of Alaska. In any case, it`s still looking fairly dry through most of next week. There is some hope for precipitation in the forecast around Day 10. About 30% of ensemble members are predicting spotty convection over southern Oregon and northern California around August 15th. Some of this could also come in the form of thunderstorms. Something to monitor during future model runs. -Smith && .AVIATION...06/18Z TAFs...A mix of IFR/LIFR over the coastal waters, coast and coastal valleys is expected to improve to patchy lingering IFR this afternoon. IFR/LIFR is expected to form and thicken along the coast again after 02Z early this evening, and persist into Friday morning. Skies will remain clear inland, but with areas of MVFR visibility reduction due to smoke. Smoke concentration will remain highest in southern Oregon, especially south central Oregon (including Klamath Falls and Lakeview). Some improvement in visibility is expected with breezy afternoon winds. But, smoke will settle into valleys again and locally into northern California overnight into Friday morning. && .MARINE...Updated 230 PM PDT Thursday, August 6, 2026...Below advisory conditions continue into early Friday with north wind wave dominated seas. North winds will strengthen Friday through the weekend into early next week. Steep seas are expected south of Cape Blanco Friday morning through Saturday morning, then a gale watch south of Port Orford later Saturday with steep seas elsewhere. && .FIRE WEATHER...Updated 300 PM PDT Thursday, August 6, 2026... Critical fire weather conditions continue west of the Cascades this afternoon as the thermal trough moves eastwards. RHs will still drop down into the mid and perhaps lower teens with the typical NW gusty valley winds west of the Cascades. Overnight recoveries should improve with lighter westerly flow along the coast with moderate recoveries more likely in the coastal range. Poor recoveries seem more likely in western Siskiyou County as very dry air lingers there. Otherwise, the more notable improvement will be Saturday into Sunday with high pressure weakening over the region and deeper westerly flow off the Pacific. This will push humidities notably higher by mid week next week with near normal temperatures for mid August. -Smith && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Friday for ORZ023-024-026-028>031. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ620-622. CA...Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Friday for CAZ080-081-083>085. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ280. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM to 11 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ350- 370. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Friday to 11 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ356-376. && $$

020 FXUS66 KEKA 062048 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 148 PM PDT Thu Aug 6 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Moderate to major heat risk continues through the weekend for much of the interior. * Coastal stratus to continue for much of the North Coast. * Increased winds and low relative humidity will elevate fire danger this weekend. && .SYNOPSIS...Persistent high pressure aloft will remain through the week. Inland areas are subject to abnormally hot temperatures through the weekend. Coastal areas will remain mostly overcast with temperatures in the lower 60s near the water. && .DISCUSSION...A steady ridge of high pressure remains entrenched over the west coast leading to warm to VERY hot temperatures for the inland areas. Most inland valleys can expect high temperatures between 100-110F through the weekend. The coast continues to offer some relief from this heat. Offshore stratus is blanketing much of the western seaboard from the Mexican boarder up through Oregon. Temperatures will struggle to reach 65F for coastal communities due to this compressed marine layer. However, above average SSTs will limit the likelihood of any true daytime fog. Some warming is expected Friday and Saturday across the interior increasing the HeatRisk with moderate to major HeatRisk now being indicated. The heat is expected to peak on Saturday, particularly over Lake County, where conditions are on the edge of warranting an excessive heat warning instead of only an advisory. Regardless, this persistent heat will be dangerous for anyone working outside and everyone in the interior portions of all of Northern California should be drinking plenty of fluids and taking breaks to avoid heat stroke. A couple passing shortwaves on the northern periphery of the ridge will tighten the pressure gradient over the region allowing for a stronger onshore sea breeze each afternoon and evening. With very dry conditions across the interior this will result in increase fire weather concerns. For more details, see the fire weather section below. The ridge will finally see some weakening early next week as a weak trough settles over the west coast. This should allow temperatures to cool several degrees back to around normal for this time of year. /RPA && .AVIATION...Widespread cloudiness remains in place over the coastal waters with IFR ceilings being reported at both ACV and CEC. Inland VFR is prevailing with clear skies and light winds. The coastal clouds will likely persist and spread back into the near coastal valleys this evening, sinking back to the surface, and allowing LIFR conditions to return to most coastal areas. A repeat is likely in store tomorrow but northwesterly winds may start to become stronger along the coast by the afternoon. /RPA && .MARINE...Light to moderate northerly winds are in place over most of the coastal waters at this time with only a few light southerly winds persisting along the northern Humboldt and Del Norte coasts. Friday and into the weekend, a more uniform regime of northerly winds are forecast to return to the area. Gales are possible over the weekend into early next week with the likelihood of gusts >30kts over 80% for most of the outer waters from Saturday through most of next week. Very steep seas will build in response to this increasing winds and gale watches have been issued for the outer water zones for portions of the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER...Conditions are expected to remain hot and dry through through the weekend. This heat wave will likely cause an increase in fire risk as the fuels dry. This weekend, the synoptic weather pattern is likely to change ever so slightly. This change will be felt by an increase in the likelihood of stronger valley winds each afternoon. The primary areas of concern are in the eastern Trinity River valley and on the eastern side of Clear Lake in Lake County. The duration of the stronger westerlies each afternoon should be limited to less than the required 8 hours for red flag warnings. Thus, no fire weather watch been issued at this time but a headline has been introduced into the fire weather forecast product. && .BEACH HAZARDS...Sea levels continue to run approximately 0.8 ft above the predicted tide level in Humboldt Bay. Tides will become more amplified early next week following the normal lunar cycle. The predicted tide at the North Spit is 7.95 ft MLLW at 10:21 pm on Monday the 10th and then 7.99 ft MLLW at 11:17 pm on Tuesday the 11th. If the tide continues to run at around 0.8 ft above predicted, this could result in minor coastal flooding around Humboldt Bay with minor impacts in King Salmon and possibly a few other locations around the bay. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ105-106. Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ108-116-117. Heat Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 10 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ110-111-113-114-118>120. Heat Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 10 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ112. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Friday to 3 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ470. Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday morning for PZZ470-475. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Friday to 3 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

770 FXUS66 KMTR 062136 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 236 PM PDT Thu Aug 6 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1248 AM PDT Thu Aug 6 2026 - Elevated fire weather conditions in the higher terrain Thursday - Warming trend through Saturday will result in moderate to major HeatRisk for the interior through Sunday - Near-critical fire weather conditions in the higher terrain Friday through Sunday - Minor coastal flooding for bayshore locations along the San Francisco Bay, San Pablo Bay, and Monterey Bay Saturday evening through Thursday morning && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 6 2026 (This evening through Friday night) Seeing a lot of similarities today to the last few days...the marine layer foot print from this morning is dictating the "cooler" temps and the hotter inland temps. Latest 24 hr trends follow this foot print too showing slightly warmer temperatures this afternoon across the interior. For tonight...a little bit of rinse and repeat. Marine layer hugging the coast will once again march inland with a slight compression, but still decent inland reach. Nocturnal drying and active thermal belts persist above the marine layer exacerbating the fire weather concerns. Monsoon moisture influx is slowing creeping in from the south as we speak. Latest guidance continues to show increasing moisture through Friday. Normally, focus would turn toward high based convection, but the large ridge and lack of trigger will like limit convective potential. Also, the moisture seems to be rather high (>10k ft) so impacts at the surface may be minimal. Friday and Friday night...large upper level ridge will expand back over the region bringing a more noticeable warm up across the interior. For the coast, same old same old, persistent marine layer influence keeping temperatures in check. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 230 PM PDT Thu Aug 6 2026 (Saturday through next Wednesday) First and forecast, a Heat Advisory has been issue for Saturday and Sunday. The warming trend will continue Saturday and then moderate Sunday. The warmer interior temperatures in the mid 90s to lower 100s will push HeatRisk back into the critical levels (widespread Moderate to pockets of Major). Overnight lows will remain mild and in the 60s to mid 70s for interior and higher terrain locations. There are lots of outdoor events going on around the Bay Area this weekend. Interior locations will want to take some safety precautions for the heat: hydrate, take breaks, seek shade, never leave pets/people in cars. Do expect a warm up at the coast too, but it`s the Bay Area so pack a jacket as the marine layer will move inland during the evening hours. HeatRisk concerns begin to fade on Monday as the large ridge flattens and looks to split into two with sagging H5 over CA coast. The cooling trend will continue through at least Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1101 AM PDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Satellite is showing stratus receding to the coastline where it`ll remain for the rest of the day. Typical diurnal onshore breeze pattern is expected where winds will increase to 10-15 kt through the afternoon and ease to 5-8 kt by sunset. Widespread stratus coverage expected again tonight which will bring a mixed bag of low- end MVFR to IFR ceilings. Medium confidence on whether LVK will be included in the stratus coverage tonight. If there is a sufficient onshore breeze, an MVFR ceiling may develop so TAF hints at the possibility around 12Z. Overall, medium confidence on the exact arrival of stratus tonight. Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the afternoon as onshore winds increase. With a depth of around 1000-1500 feet, the marine layer will bring MVFR ceilings (~OVC010-015) over SFO and OAK this evening around 04-06Z. Medium confidence on the exact timing of ceilings as they may arrive a couple hours later than specified. Stratus should mix out by 17-18Z Friday morning as onshore winds increase. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus should remain confined to the coastline through the afternoon, resulting in VFR conditions. Anticipated stratus arrival is currently around 03Z, though it may arrive as late as 06Z. Prevailing MVFR ceilings are expected for SNS, meanwhile MRY will drop to IFR. SNS may intermittently drop to high-end IFR ceilings overnight. Coastal drizzle associated with these low ceilings are possible. && .MARINE... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1012 AM PDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Gentle northwest winds continue to increase to strong by Saturday morning across the outer Northern coastal waters. Wind-driven moderate seas build to rough (9-12 feet) Saturday night in response to strengthening winds. A long period southwesterly swell of 15 to 17 seconds approaches our coastline Saturday morning and persists through the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1248 AM PDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Elevated fire weather conditions continue Thursday with hot and dry conditions alongside the diurnal sea breeze. PSAs of Mid Coast to Mendocino, Diablo/Santa Cruz Mountains, and Central Coast Interior are all currently in the 97th percentile for ERC with Mid Coast to Mendocino and Central Coast Interior forecast to reach daily record values this weekend. This indicates potential for extreme burning conditions. Even the more marine layer influenced PSAs of Bay Marine and Central Coast are forecast to peak in the 80th-90th percentile. Building high pressure will bring near-critical fire weather conditions Friday through Sunday. Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal with a shallow marine layer in place. Poor minimum daytime relative humidity as low as 10% is expected in the afternoons with little-to-no recovery expected overnight. The one missing piece preventing this from being a Fire Weather Watch/Red Flag Warning as of now is wind, it`s expected to be light. The exception being through gaps/passes (namely Altamont Pass, the Delta, and Pacheco Pass) and down the Salinas Valley. To add onto this, the critical conditions are not expected to overlap spatially (majority of a zone) or temporally (for at least 8 hours) to warrant a product. Sarment && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 10 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ503- 504-510-512>515-517-518. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM....MM AVIATION...Navarrete MARINE...Navarrete Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

379 FXUS66 KOTX 062140 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA Issued by National Weather Service Medford OR 240 PM PDT Thu Aug 6 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread smoke impacts will continue area wide into this weekend, maintaining unhealthy air quality. - Temperatures peak with highs above normal Friday. Where wildfire smoke is thickest, high temperatures could be a few to several degrees lower than forecast. - Dry weather persists both Friday and Saturday with increasing winds. Strongest winds will be across portions of central Washington, but encompass most of eastern Washington and northern Idaho by Saturday. Expect elevated to critical fire weather conditions due to a combination of gusty winds and low relative humidity. - Temperatures drop back toward normal this weekend into early next week, and no precipitation is expected through at least Tuesday. && .SYNOPSIS... High pressure aloft centered over Nevada will extend northward and persist over the area tonight into Friday resulting in very warm and dry conditions. Wildfire smoke will maintain degraded air quality across the area. The smoke will be thick enough in some areas to keep high temperatures a few to several degrees lower than would otherwise be expected. Breezy winds across the area Friday into Saturday will lead to critical fire weather concerns. Temperatures return closer to normal for the start of next week with more/less zonal flow aloft. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight: An upper ridge axis will move overhead resulting in dry conditions. Upper slopes and ridges and even parts of the Basin will only see moderate humidity recovery overnight. Should be a modest increase in winds on the east slopes of the Cascades tonight compared to recent nights. For temperatures, lows will be in the 50s to low 60s. Smoke will settle into same areas as last night, probably most notably Friday and Saturday: The ridge axis shifts east and weakens and brings a zonal flow pattern. Winds will increase as warm dry conditions continue. Winds will be west with sustained speeds in the teens and gusts into the 20 to 30 mph range. The strongest winds are most likely to remain confined to portions of central Washington including the east Cascade valleys and the Waterville Plateau. There is around a 40-70% chance of wind gusts up to 30-35 mph in those locations in central WA Friday and Saturday. One major difference from August 1 is the lack of strong low level winds. 850-700mb winds are only reaching into the 10-20 mph range compared to the 30-40 mph from August 1. It is still an elevated to critical fire weather period due to the continued hot and dry conditions combined with the breezy winds. Fire Weather Watches were upgraded to Red Flag Warnings for most of the area for breezy westerly winds and low relative humidity both Friday and Saturday. Exception, a Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for FWZ702 (Colville Reservation) since it is questionable if winds/low RH align enough to warrant an upgrade. Highs will be in the upper 80s and 90s with humidity in the teens to low 20s. Overnight lows will be in the 50s to low 60s. Minimum relative humidity will reach the 10-25% range with limited recovery overnight. Sunday through Tuesday: Cooler air will filter into the region. Winds will remain diurnally driven with the potential for some locally breezy winds through the Cascade gaps. There is still no decent chance of precip expected through at least Tuesday. Highs will generally be in the 80s with low in the upper 40s and 50s. After Tuesday: There is more uncertainty in the forecast Wednesday and beyond since some ensemble members are showing increasing heights, while others bring a deeper PacNW trough. Precip probabilities remain low, but do show ~15-25% chance showers (thunder?), especially across northern zones Wed/Thu. -Spilde/JDC && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFs: Wildfire smoke will continue to be the primary impact to aviation across the area. Visibilities at the terminals late this morning are mostly in the 5 to 7 sm range, though areas of IFR with visibilities in the 1 to 3 sm range exist from Moses Lake to Wenatchee. Other localized areas in the immediate vicinity of the wildfires are also having reduced visibility. A smoke layer is causing ceilings between 4000 and 7000 feet. Visibilities should improve a bit in most areas this afternoon due to greater vertical mixing, though areas immediately downwind of the fires will continue to have ceiling/visibility reductions. Winds remain relatively light through much of the TAF period (generally under 10 kt), though a little stronger winds, 10 to 15 kt, could arise along the east slopes of the Cascades after 03z Friday. While smoke model guidance maintains some thicker smoke plumes (local IFR) before west winds push layers to the east on Friday, much will depend on exactly how the fires behave. Local burnout operations on existing fires could cause large deviations in smoke output. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in winds generally 10 kt or less for the next 24 hours, though a modest increase in west winds will begin tonight along the east slopes of the Cascades. Moderate confidence in winds increasing to 10 to 15 kt area wide on Friday. High confidence for smoke creating impacts with reduced visibility. Moderate confidence in periods of ceilings due to thicker smoke. -Spilde ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 58 94 60 91 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 58 94 58 90 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 53 91 53 88 52 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 63 100 63 96 63 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 52 95 53 92 51 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 54 91 55 89 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 56 90 56 87 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 59 97 59 93 58 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 67 97 67 93 65 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 62 97 62 93 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA... -Air Quality Alert until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for Central Chelan County-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area- Northeast Blue Mountains-Northeast Mountains- Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau- Wenatchee Area-Western Chelan County-Western Okanogan County. -Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Friday to 11 PM PDT Saturday for East Portion of North Cascades National Park/Lake Chelan National Recreation Area (Zone 697)-East Washington Central Cascades (Zone 696)-East Washington North Cascades (Zone 698)-Eastern Columbia Basin -Palouse - Spokane Area (Zone 708)-Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Foothills of Northeast Washington (Zone 701)-Lower Palouse -Snake River (Zone 709)-Methow Valley (Zone 704)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707). -Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for Colville Reservation (Zone 702). ID... -Air Quality Alert until 4 PM PDT Friday for Central Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse- Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area- Northern Panhandle. && $$

792 FXUS66 KPDT 062211 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 311 PM PDT Thu Aug 6 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated to critical fire weather conditions through the week due to periods of breezy conditions, low RH, and hot, dry, and unstable conditions. Red Flag Warnings in effect Friday morning through Saturday evening for wind and low relative humidity. - Widespread smoke persists today, then westerly winds will likely (80% confidence) bring improvement Friday through the weekend, except in the vicinity of or downwind of ongoing wildfires. - Widespread Moderate to locally Major HeatRisk today and Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Similar to the previous few days, satellite imagery shows widespread smoke and haze across the forecast area this afternoon. While some modest improvement in smoke has occurred in central Oregon and south-central Washington, regional wildfires continue to produce significant smoke which is now being transported to the northeast. Water vapor imagery reveals an upper-level ridge axis extending from the Great Basin through the Pacific Northwest and into British Columbia. Meanwhile, a low-pressure system is located well offshore in the vicinity of 49N, 144W. Under the ridge, hot temperatures will continue through Friday. Widespread Moderate to locally Major HeatRisk is expected (80% confidence) due to forecast afternoon temperatures in the 95-100 degree range and lows in the 50s and 60s (locally into the lower 70s). Wildfire smoke inhibits efficient solar heating so afternoon temperatures may end up being several degrees cooler than currently forecast where smoke is sufficiently dense; this is most likely beneath the plumes from the Grasshopper Fire and Rowe Creek Complex. Have opted to hold off on issuing any heat headlines. A couple shortwaves are likely (95% confidence) to flatten the ridge Friday through the weekend, with the strongest expected Saturday afternoon. This pattern will facilitate breezy to windy westerly winds through the Cascade gaps and across the Blue Mountain foothills and Columbia Basin. Wind coupled with low relative humidity will lead to increasing fire weather concerns and Red Flag Warnings have been issued (see FIRE WEATHER section below). Breezy to windy westerly winds will be capable of scouring much of the existing smoke from our forecast area; while widespread improvement is anticipated (80% confidence), smoke is still expected to be present downwind of ongoing wildfires within their respective plumes, so some areas will see continued smoke while others will be much clearer. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...MVFR or lower conditions will prevail through most of the period. Smoke from area wildfires will continue to impact all sites, resulting in vsby down to IFR conditions and CIGs down to MVFR conditions. Smoke is expected to worsen vsby conditions overnight, especially at sites DLS/ALW/PDT. Winds at sites RDM/BDN have helped to improve vsby, but vsby expected to deteriorate to MVFR again once winds diminish tonight. Tomorrow, increasing westerly winds through the Cascade gaps and Columbia Basin is expected to help improve vsby at most sites. Sites RDM/ALW may not improve until late tomorrow afternoon. Winds will increase to 12-20kts with gusts up to 30kts at sites DLS/PDT tomorrow afternoon, with winds less than 12kts at all other sites tomorrow. Lawhorn/82 && .FIRE WEATHER... Periods of elevated to critical fire weather conditions are anticipated today into at least early next week due to a combination of locally breezy winds and low relative humidity as well as hot, dry, and unstable conditions. Today through Friday, the combination of dry air and hot temperatures will drive afternoon RHs into the single digits to teens. Predominantly poor to fair overnight RH recovery is forecast through the week, except for locally good to excellent recovery in drainages. Of note, deep mixing across the region coupled with locally breezy winds, especially central Oregon and vicinity, may support plume-dominated fire this afternoon and Friday. Have held off on issuing any zone-wide Red Flag Warnings for hot, dry, and unstable conditions. Additionally, high-resolution weather models (12Z HREF and 12Z REFS) continue to highlight some potential (broadly 30-70% of members) overlap of critical wind/RH thresholds in central and east-central Oregon as well as the Cascade gaps of OR/WA this afternoon and evening, but confidence was too low to issue any zone-wide Red Flag Warnings. Friday through Saturday, confidence is very high (95 percent) in a return to breezy westerly winds through the Cascade gaps and across the Columbia Basin as a couple weak shortwaves flatten the ridge. The stronger shortwave appears opportunistically timed Saturday afternoon to coincide with afternoon heating to facilitate more widespread breezy winds. Coupled with the dry air mass, forecast elevated to critical fire weather conditions have prompted the issuance of multiple Red Flag Warnings; confidence in the combination of critical winds and relative humidity is high (80 percent) for Friday and Saturday. Looking ahead, persistent quasi-zonal flow or weak troughing aloft will likely (80% confidence) keep breezy westerly gap winds in place Sunday into at least early next week. Confidence in meeting wind/RH criteria is low (20-50%) Sunday and Monday for wind-prone areas. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 61 97 59 93 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 67 98 66 95 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 60 99 61 96 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 62 99 62 96 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 64 99 64 95 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 63 94 63 90 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 54 97 52 93 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 61 100 59 96 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 59 100 59 97 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 63 96 64 93 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Friday to 11 PM PDT Saturday for WAZ690-691. Air Quality Alert until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for WAZ024-026>030- 521>523. OR...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Friday for ORZ041-044-049-050- 502-503-505>511. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Friday to 11 PM PDT Saturday for ORZ691-701-703. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...82 FIRE WEATHER...86

615 FXUS65 KREV 061903 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1203 PM PDT Thu Aug 6 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * A prolonged period of triple-digit heat across western NV and eastern CA valleys will continue through this weekend. * Smoke and haze from could bring periods of degraded air quality at times, although coverage is expected to decrease in most areas later today through Friday. * Dry conditions persist in most areas, but low-end isolated afternoon shower and thunder chances return Friday through early next week for parts of the eastern Sierra and western NV. && .DISCUSSION... All heat-related advisories and warnings remain in place through this weekend as strong high pressure ridge prevails across the southwest US and much of the Great Basin. The highest daytime temperatures are expected across Pershing and Churchill counties where warmer desert valleys could reach or surpass 105 degrees Friday through Sunday afternoon. An increase in mid-high level moisture brings increased cloud cover from the eastern Sierra into Mineral-Lyon counties this afternoon, then more of this cloud cover expands northward to the Reno-Tahoe region at times Friday afternoon through Saturday. While these clouds may shave off a couple degrees from afternoon highs in the Heat Advisory areas, it would also lead to less cooling for Friday and Saturday nights, with more areas remaining above 65 degrees and warmer valley sites holding above 70 degrees. For those heading to the Sierra communities to escape the valley heat, highs near or above 90 degrees will still feel summer-like, although nights will be notably cooler. This moisture push brings an increase in PW values to 0.6"-0.7" this afternoon into Mono-Mineral-Lyon counties, then climbs to 0.65"-0.85" Friday and Saturday afternoons in these areas and also expands northward to more of western NV. Lack of adequate forcing and warm air aloft should prevent anything more than cumulus buildups, and perhaps a few raindrops reaching the ground this afternoon in southern Mono-Mineral counties. For Friday afternoon, a bit more instability and upper level forcing bring increased shower/isolated thunder chances (25-40%) to the eastern Sierra, with lower chances (10-20%) extending northward into far western NV. Rainfall looks to be sparse unless a cell is able to redevelop over the same area or anchor to a terrain feature, but with downdraft CAPE approaching 1500 J/kg, stronger outflow gusts of 40-50 mph are within reason. A similar scenario sets up each afternoon this weekend, although the majority of the shower/t-storm chances remain limited to Mono, Mineral and southern Lyon counties, with chances dropping to less than 10% north of US-50. Areas of haze and smoke mainly from the Gann Fire in central CA linger through this morning and should lift and disperse this afternoon. Wind patterns near the fire indicate less spread of smoke into the Tahoe-Reno regions tonight, although lighter haze may linger across the Sierra and western NV through Friday. However, the latest smoke trajectory guidance hints at a return of smoke from the larger Oregon fires late tonight along the OR border, then expanding into northwest NV and northeast CA late Friday night into Saturday. Overall winds from today through Saturday resemble a typical zephyr-type pattern with SW-W gusts near 25 mph each afternoon. Looking to next week from Monday onward, the heat will gradually ease with a few 100 degree highs lingering early in the week for parts of west central NV, but by mid-late week highs settle into near seasonal averages of lower-mid 90s for lower elevations and lower 80s near the Sierra. This cooling is likely to be accompanied by increased SW-W winds especially Mon-Tues which would lead to elevated-locally critical fire weather concerns. Dry air spread across most of the region, but lingering moisture and instability in Mono-Mineral-southern Lyon counties could lead to afternoon showers/t-storms in these areas each day through midweek. Later next week, blended guidance favors a northward expansion of these shower and thunder chances, but confidence is lower on this scenario. MJD && .AVIATION... * SW-W wind gusts mainly 20-25 kt prevail at the main terminals each afternoon through at Saturday, generally ramping up between 20-22Z and diminishing by 03-05Z. * VFR conditions continue this week. Lingering areas of haze around the main terminals may produce minor reductions in slantwise visibility, with this haze expected to thin out later today through Friday. * Prolonged daytime heat will result in density altitude concerns through this weekend. MJD && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Heat Advisory until 8 AM PDT Monday NVZ001-003-005. Heat Advisory until 8 AM PDT Friday NVZ004. Extreme Heat Warning from 8 AM Friday to 8 AM PDT Monday NVZ004. CA...Heat Advisory until 8 AM PDT Monday CAZ070-071. && $$

217 FXUS66 KSTO 062051 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 151 PM PDT Thu Aug 6 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Friday through 10 PM for the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys, and foothills of the Sierra. - Hottest temperatures are expected on Saturday, with Moderate to Major HeatRisk across the Valleys & foothills. HeatRisk receding early next week, with lingering Moderate HeatRisk through mid-week. - Elevated Fire Weather Conditions in the northern Sacramento Valley and surrounding terrain, Burney Basin, and Sierra Foothills through Sunday due to hot temperatures and low humidities. - Isolated thunderstorm (10%) chances in the Sierra Crest south of Highway 50 on Friday, increasing chances (15%) this weekend. Elsewhere, prevailing dry weather conditions expected. && .DISCUSSION... Upper-level ridge continue to expand across the western CONUS, while the surface high pressure strengthens. The low-level airmass will warm Friday and Saturday leading to widespread triple digits with very relief overnight due to high minimum temperatures. The heat will increase on Friday and then peak on Saturday. Moderate to Major HeatRisk is expected across the Valleys & foothills. The heat will have impacts on anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. While the HeatRisk begin to recedes on Sunday as the upper ridge begins to break down, overnight temperatures will remain in the upper 60s to mid 70s along with widespread highs in the triple digits. A Heat Advisory is in effect from 10 AM Friday through 10 PM Sunday for the Valleys, foothills, and the northern Sierra. Additionally, as a result of these continued hot and dry conditions, fire weather conditions will remain elevated through Sunday across the northern Sacramento Valley and surrounding terrain, the Sierra foothills, and Burney Basin. The mid-level moisture over southern California is observed tracking northward this afternoon. This moisture pushes will bring an increasing PWAT values of 0.8 to 1.0 inch (125-160% above normal) Friday and Saturday. A shallow instability and upper-level forcing will bring isolated showers/thunderstorms (10%) chances south of the Highway 50 over the Sierra Crest Friday afternoon and evening, with increasing chances (15%) over the weekend. Elsewhere, prevailing dry weather conditions are expected. Heading to next week, temperatures cool slightly on Monday with as an offshore troughing develops to the northwest. Onshore flow will bring increasing humidity over the area. Prevailing elevated fire weather conditions will continue over the Burney Basin and northern Sierra foothills through Monday due to breezy westerly winds combined with low humidity in the teens. The heat is expected to gradually recede early through mid next week, with lingering Moderate HeatRisk through Wednesday. All ensemble cluster suggest this offshore troughing deepening mid to late next week, with potentially more substantial cooling by mid week. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours. Winds generally remain 12 kts or less at TAF sites. West to southwest gusts up to 25 kts in the Delta from 00Z through 15Z Friday. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 10 PM PDT Sunday for Burney Basin-Butte County Below 1000 ft-C. San Joaquin County including Stockton-C. Stanislaus County including Modesto-C. Yolo/NE Solano including Woodland-Central Colusa County Incl. I-5- Central Glenn Co & Interstate 5-Central Motherlode 1000-3000 ft- E. Diablo Range Above 1000 ft-E. Shasta /S. Cascades Above 3000 ft-Eastern Colusa County-Eastern Glenn County-Glenn/Colusa Coast Range Above 3000 ft-Lassen Volcanic NP-N. Motherlode 1000-3000 ft-N. Sac Valley in Tehama County-NE San Joaquin Valley Below 1000 ft-Sac Metro/W. El Dorado/Amador County-San Joaquin County Delta-Shasta County Foothills 1000-3000 ft-Shasta Lake Area & 1- 5 1000-3000 ft-Shasta Metro-Sierra (Cal-Tuo) 3000-5000 ft-Sierra (Sierra-Placer) Above 5000 ft-Sierra (Tehama-Plumas) 1000-3000 ft-Sierra (Tehama-Plumas) Above 3000 ft-Sierra (Yuba-Placer) 3000-5000 ft-Sierra 3000-5000 ft-Southern Motherlode 1000-3000 ft-Sutter/Yuba counties below 1000 ft-Tehama Co Coast Range Above 3000 ft-Tracy Triangle Below 1000 ft-W Tehama Co Foothills 1000-3000 ft-W. Glenn/Colusa Foothills 1000-3000 ft-W. Shasta County 1000-3000 ft-W. Shasta County Above 3000 ft-W. Stanislaus County Above 1000 ft & I-5-W. Yolo County including Capay/I-505- Yolo / Solano County Hills. && $$

098 FXUS65 KMSO 062044 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 244 PM MDT Thu Aug 6 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Warming trend through the rest of the week. - Wildfire smoke will continue to impact the region until further notice. - Ridge of high pressure flattens heading into the weekend. Near- critical to critical fire weather expected due to hot, dry and breezy conditions. A building upper-level ridge will maintain hot, dry, and stable conditions across western Montana and north-central Idaho. Temperatures will warm significantly Friday and Saturday, with lower elevations reaching the 90s and localized spots exceeding 100 degrees. As the ridge flattens into zonal flow this weekend, afternoon surface winds will increase. Hot temperatures, low relative humidity, gusty winds, and critically dry fuels will maintain near-critical to critical fire weather conditions, peaking Friday into Saturday. The main focus for the most critical conditions is expected across southwest and west-central Montana along with the Palouse and Hells Canyon region of north- central Idaho with Fire Weather Watches issued. Wildfire smoke remains a key forecast challenge for air quality and visibility. Strong radiational cooling under smoky skies will yield sharp nocturnal valley inversions each morning, trapping surface particulates. While daytime boundary layer mixing will temporarily disperse valley smoke each afternoon, increased ventilation will also invigorate fire activity and generate thicker plumes aloft. High-resolution smoke models project surface smoke peaking early this afternoon before modestly improving by early evening. Monsoonal moisture tracking along the ridge periphery introduces a slight chance for isolated high-based convection Friday afternoon through the weekend, primarily across southwest Montana. An anomalously dry sub-cloud layer will pose a risk for dry lightning ignitions and erratic microburst gusts of 40 to 55 mph. Forecast confidence is low to moderate but trending upward regarding moisture returning mid/late next week. At this point, the moisture doesn`t appear deep or organized enough for widespread rainfall. A substantial synoptic shift such as a deep Pacific Northwest trough will be required to suppress fire activity and clear smoke. Ensemble guidance shows a 20 to 30% chance of this trough arriving by mid to late next week. && .AVIATION...Widespread wildfire smoke remains the primary aviation hazard over the next 24 hours. Sharp nocturnal inversions and strong radiational cooling will trap surface smoke in valley basins overnight through mid-morning, maintaining periods of MVFR to localized IFR visibilities (along with locally reduced ceilings). Daytime heating will promote boundary layer mixing and yield modest surface visibility improvements by afternoon; however, enhanced ventilation will also invigorate regional fire activity, generating thicker smoke plumes aloft and impacting slant-range visibility. High density altitude will be a prominent operational concern as afternoon temperatures reach the 90s and low 100s. Surface winds will remain light and terrain- driven with a westerly gradient by Friday afternoon. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday evening for Bitterroot...Deerlodge/West Beaverhead...East Beaverhead...East Lolo. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for Flathead Reservation...West Lolo. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Deerlodge/West Beaverhead...East Beaverhead. ID...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Saturday evening for Palouse/Hells Canyon. && $$

787 FXUS65 KBOI 062001 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 201 PM MDT Thu Aug 6 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Continued very hot through Saturday. - Continued smoky through at least Sunday. - Breezy afternoon winds Friday through Sunday. - Slight chance of thunderstorms along the ID/NV Saturday and Sunday as high-level monsoon moisture advances northward. && .SHORT TERM /Through Saturday Night/... Continued very hot through Saturday and also dry and smoky, as the main upper ridge over the Great Basin reaches maximum intensity. Friday should be the hottest day by a slight margin. A weak Pacific cold front and supporting upper trough will weaken the main upper ridge and bring gradual cooling beginning Saturday night. High level monsoon moisture will advance northward to the NV/ID border late Saturday after being kept well south the past two weeks. This moisture, together with the weak incoming cold front, will bring a slight chance of high- based thunderstorms to Owyhee and Twin Falls Counties late Saturday and Saturday night. Afternoon winds will be breezy, especially Saturday in southern zones, as the cold front approaches. Thunderstorm outflow gusts must also be considered near the NV/ID border late Saturday. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/... The gradual cooling will end Tuesday when temperatures are only 3 to 6 degrees above normal under dry zonal flow aloft. Flow will become southwesterly again Wednesday ahead of the next approaching north Pacific trough, and monsoon moisture will again advance northward to the NV/ID border, especially into and east of Twin Falls County. Thursday`s forecast is less clear as the GFS brings the next cool upper trough inland while ECMWF completely eliminates it. We hope for better model consistency tonight or tomorrow. Either way, high temperatures should stay below 100 degrees even under southwest flow aloft, as the main upper ridge continues to slowly weaken and shift south. && .AVIATION /18Z Thursday through Friday/... Issued 1127 AM MDT THU AUG 6 2026 Areas of MVFR visibility and mountain obscuration due to wildfire smoke, otherwise VFR. High density altitude each afternoon due to hot temperatures. Surface winds: W-NW 5-12kt with gusts to 18kt until 07/01Z then variable less than 8 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-SW 5-10kt. KBOI...Wildfire smoke but generally remaining VFR. Mountains obscured at times. High density altitude each afternoon due to hot temperatures. Surface winds: WNW around 10 kt until 07/01Z then SE around 5 kt. Weekend Outlook...Areas of MVFR visibility and local mountain obscuration due to wildfire smoke, otherwise VFR. High density altitude each afternoon due to hot temperatures. Less than 10% chance of afternoon thunderstorms along ID/NV border Friday through Sunday. Surface winds: W-NW 7-12 kt with gusts 15 to 20 kt during the afternoons/early evenings, otherwise variable less than 10 kt. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Air Quality Alert until 2 PM MDT Friday for IDZ011>015-028-029- 033. Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Saturday for IDZ012-014>016-029- 030-033. OR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT /8 PM PDT/ Saturday for ORZ061>064. Air Quality Alert until 1 PM MDT /noon PDT/ Friday for ORZ061>064. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....LC AVIATION.....LC

282 FXUS65 KLKN 061937 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1237 PM PDT Thu Aug 6 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Various Heat Products have been issued for various locations between now through Sunday. * Near record heat in most of Northern and Central Nevada each afternoon today through Sunday * Elevated fire weather conditions in Northern Nevada Friday through Sunday due to hot, dry, and breezy weather && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Thursday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A large upper level ridge of high pressure continues to situate over the southwestern CONUS, keeping high temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal for this time of year. The higher temperatures reaching into the 100s have prompted several Heat Warnings and Advisories over central and northern Nevada. Extreme Heat Warning is in effect today until Sunday afternoon for eastern Elko County from Wells to West Wendover. Heat Advisory is in effect for Ruby Mountains, northern Elko County and White Pine County until Sunday afternoon. Rest of central and northern Nevada are under a Heat Advisory today and will be under Extreme Heat Warning starting 6 AM Friday. For Humboldt County, the Extreme Heat Warning will last until 11 PM Friday, for southwestern Elko, Lander, Eureka, and N. Nye County, the Extreme Heat Warning will last until 11 PM Saturday. A tighter weather gradient just to the north of Nevada will increase westerly wind speeds across the northern zones along the state border. Elevated fire weather conditions for those zones due to afternoon breezes, low relative humidity, and extreme heat. The position of the upper ridge is aiding in producing a monsoonal flow over the southwest with Arizona and the Baja being the main areas for moisture. The ridge will push some of that moisture into southern Nevada and reaching into central Nevada by Friday afternoon, with PWAT values increasing up to 0.5-0.7 inches across N. Nye and White Pine Counties. Despite the increase in moisture, thunderstorm development is expected to be at mid-high levels in the atmosphere, prompting the storms to be more dry than wet, however at this time, probabilities of thunderstorm development remains low for Friday. Over the weekend, probabilities increase for dry thunderstorm development across central Nevada. Storm motions will be slow which may prompt thunderstorms to develop and collapse on themeselves as storm downdrafts will subdue the updrafts. As a result, the storms may be short lived and any outflow wind gusts may reach up to 50 mph. Active monsoonal pattern is expected to last through mid week with chances for dry thunderstorms spreading towards northeastern Nevada by Monday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence continue for near record heat across northern and central Nevada for the remainder of the week and weekend. Moderate confidence of elevated fire weather conditions across the northern zones Friday and Saturday. Low confidence for dry thunderstorm activity across central Nevada Friday and Saturday afternoons. Changes to the weather grids for Friday to better reflect dry thunderstorm potential. && .AVIATION... Look for VFR conditions over the next 24 hours across all terminals. Smoke from active wildfires will still be present across all terminals, however is not expected to reduce flight level category. By Friday afternoon, potential for dry thunderstorms return from a monsoonal pattern into central Nevada yet remain far south from the central terminals. High chances for more widespread coverage of dry thunderstorms by Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Extreme heat returns to all fire weather zones beginning Thursday and lasting through the weekend. Elevated fire weather conditions are present across northern portions of fire weather zones 438/469/470 and to a lesser extent zone 437. Sustained winds of 17-20mph with gusts ranging 20-25 mph combined with extremely hot temperatures and RH values less than 15% will create conditions for quick fire spread and erratic fire behavior each afternoon through starting Thursday through the weekend. The potential for dry thunderstorm activity exists in fire weather zones 425/426/427 beginning Saturday afternoon and continuing each afternoon into next week. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Heat Advisory until 6 AM PDT Friday NVZ030-036>038-040-041. Extreme Heat Warning 6 AM PDT Friday until 11 PM PDT Friday NVZ030. Extreme Heat Warning 6 AM PDT Friday until 11 PM PDT Saturday NVZ036-037-038-040-041. Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Sunday NVZ031-034-035. Extreme Heat Warning until 11 PM PDT Sunday NVZ033-039. && $$ DISCUSSION...97 AVIATION...97 FIRE WEATHER...99