784 FXUS66 KSEW 312050 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 150 PM PDT Sun May 31 2026 .SYNOPSIS...An upper level ridge will gradually build across the Pacific Northwest early this week, resulting in warming temperatures through Tuesday. Temperatures will peak on Tuesday, resulting in Minor to Moderate HeatRisk. Onshore flow increases Wednesday as the upper ridge weakens. The next disturbance approaches Western Washington later in the week. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...Mainly sunny conditions this afternoon as high pressure builds into the Pacific Northwest. High temperatures today will peak in the 60s to low 70s. Upper ridging continues to gradually build over the region on Monday with temperatures warming further into the 70s and low 80s by Monday afternoon. Light offshore flow late Monday into Tuesday with a weak surface thermal trough developing early this week. Temperatures will peak on Tuesday with the upper level ridge axis overhead. Temperatures Tuesday afternoon will reach the 80s for most lowland areas, with the potential for highs in the low 90s across portions of Lewis, Mason, Thurston, and Grays Harbor Counties. These temperatures correspond to widespread Minor HeatRisk, as well as a 50-80% probability for Moderate HeatRisk from Everett southwards across Puget Sound and towards the Chehalis Valley. If you`re heading out on the water, always wear a life jacket and take precautions as lakes and rivers continue to run cold. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...Onshore flow increases by Wednesday as the upper ridge axis slides eastwards and the ridge flattens over Western Washington. This will result in increasing clouds Wednesday, as well as cooler temperatures, with highs back into the 60s and 70s. Of note, there is a slight uptick in precipitation potential Wednesday afternoon into the evening across the Cascades as a weakening upper low approaches Western Washington. NBM probability for thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon ranges 10 to 20% at this time over the Cascades. Onshore flow continues on Thursday with a continued cooling trend, with current forecast highs dropping back into the 60s to low 70s. Light precipitation or drizzle also can`t be ruled out on Thursday as well. Ensembles are consistent that deep troughing approaches the Pacific Northwest from the NE Pacific Friday into next weekend. Unsettled conditions, including precipitation chances, clouds, and cooler temperatures are expected by next weekend with the troughing across the area. JD && .AVIATION...Northerly flow aloft continues into Monday as an upper ridge continues to build offshore. VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period with mostly clear skies. High clouds will increase Monday afternoon. N/NW surface winds of 5 to 10 kts into this evening will become light NE for most sites tonight. N/NW surface winds increase again on Monday. KSEA...VFR conditions through the TAF period with increasing high clouds Monday afternoon. N/NW surface winds ranging 7 to 12 kts transitioning more NE around 5 to 9 kts tonight. JD && .MARINE...High pressure continues to build across the waters today with Northwest flow prevailing over the Coastal Waters into tonight. Northwest winds will briefly be enhanced this evening over the Coastal Waters, with sustained winds ranging 15 to 20 kts and gusts to 25 kt. In addition, increasing west winds are expected through the Strait of Juan de Fuca this evening. Winds are forecast to primarily remain below SCA thresholds, however, brief gusts to 21 kts are possible. Winds will become lighter Monday into Tuesday as a weak thermal trough develops along the coast, briefly turning winds offshore Monday night into early Tuesday. Onshore flow resumes late Tuesday as the thermal trough is shifted eastwards. Onshore flow will further strengthen Wednesday and through the rest of the weak as weak disturbances move across the waters. Small Craft Advisory winds are likely for an extended period beginning Wednesday through late in the week in the Strait of Juan de Fuca. There also remains a 30 to 60 percent chance of gales through the central and eastern Strait Thursday evening. Seas will build to 6 to 10 feet for a brief period later today into tonight. Seas will be steep during this time with a dominant period of 6 to 7 seconds. Seas will fall back to 4 to 6 feet Monday and Tuesday. Seas will generally remain 4 to 6 feet through late week, building to 8 feet at times. JD && .FIRE WEATHER...An upper ridge will setup a dry, warm pattern on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum temperatures will reach the 80s (with low 90s in localized areas) on Tuesday. A weak thermal trough will build north over the region, which results in light offshore developing late Monday into Tuesday. Winds will be rather light during this period, however, a few gusts ranging 15 to 20 MPH will remain possible over the Cascades. Minimum RHs will approach critical thresholds on Tuesday with the light offshore flow, with RHs dropping into the 20% range mainly from King County southwards, and into the Cascade Valleys. However, this stretch will be short-lived as onshore flow resumes Wednesday resulting in higher humidities the second half of the week. && .HYDROLOGY...The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the start of the next rainy season; it will only be updated during this time as needed. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM PDT Monday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. && $$

014 FXUS66 KPQR 312106 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 205 PM PDT Sun May 31 2026 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure persists through Tuesday with temperatures warming each day. Moderate HeatRisk is expected along the I-5 Corridor north of Salem, including the Portland/Vancouver Metro, as temps potentially warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s. Temperatures cool again to near seasonable averages by Wednesday as high pressure is replaced with more zonal flow aloft. Chances for rain remain low (less than 10%) through at least Thursday, except for afternoon showers in the Cascades on Wednesday. Cooler conditions likely by next weekend as a low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska brings increasing chances for rain later Friday into Saturday. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Tuesday Night...Mostly sunny skies today with dry, northerly flow as high pressure continues to build over the northeast Pacific. Seasonable temperatures today are expected to trend warmer Monday and Tuesday as the upper level ridge gradually shifts east over the region. On Monday, upper level ridging amplifies offshore while a broad cut- off low develops east of the Cascades. This will bring dry offshore flow aloft by Monday morning as a surface thermal trough also builds northward along the coast. Temperatures on Monday are expected to jump around 10-14 degrees F warmer than today`s highs, reaching the lower to mid-80s inland, while temps along the coast warm into the mid-60s to lower 70s. Only Minor HeatRisk is expected across the area tomorrow, except within parts of the Portland Metro area where overnight lows dipping into the upper 50s Monday night are suggesting the potential for Moderate HeatRisk. High pressure continues to build on Tuesday as the upper ridge slides east, with the axis of the ridge shifting over western Oregon Tue afternoon. 850 mb temperatures peak at around 14-16C with plenty of sunshine. East winds are also expected to increase out of the Columbia River Gorge Tue morning bringing drier air. Therefore, expect afternoon temps to warm another 3-6 degrees F from Monday, with highs reaching at least the mid to upper 80s across the interior lowlands, and into the 70s along the coast until moderated by the seabreeze. Guidance continues to maintain a 45-65% chance of exceeding 90 degrees along the I-5 corridor from Salem northward into SW Washington. There is also a 10-20% chance that locations within the Beaverton to Wilsonville area exceed 95 degrees. A Moderate HeatRisk is likely (70-90% chance) for Tuesday within the greater Portland/Vancouver Metro area, which means those without access to sufficient cooling and hydration may be impacted by the heat. Therefore, take precautions on Tuesday if participating in outdoor activities, especially during peak afternoon heating. The heat is not expected to last long, though as a decent marine push is expected by later Tue evening ahead of an upper shortwave trough. /DH .LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday night...A negatively tilted upper level trough is expected to swing across the Pacific NW on Wednesday, returning seasonable temperatures with mostly dry conditions. There remains high confidence that temperatures cool back into the 70s on Wednesday and persist through the end of the week. Models and their ensembles are in fairly good agreement that a low pressure system in the NE Pacific weakens as it moves toward the Gulf of Alaska on Wednesday. An associated frontal band well ahead of the surface low will approach the coast, but guidance continues to trend down with minimal, if any, precipitation spreading inland. In fact, NBM guidance generally shows less than a 10% chance of rain through Thursday. Except, there are around 20-30% chances for showers in the Cascades Wed afternoon and evening as the afore- mentioned trough lifts across the region. The timing of the trough could make things somewhat interesting east of the Cascades. Uncertainty increases late in the week and into the weekend regarding the weakened low pressure system potentially dropping down from the Gulf of Alaska toward the Washington coast. In general, there are increasing chances for rain on Saturday, but very low chances for any impactful weather. Ensemble guidance suggests 24- hour rainfall accumulation could range anywhere from zero (10th and 25th percentiles) up to potentially exceeding 0.5 to 1.0 inch (closer to the 90th percentile). Despite the potential pattern shift, onshore flow is likely, which will usher in cooler marine air and thus lower temperatures. The overall spread between the 10th to 90th percentile (essentially the coolest and warmest scenario) ranges from around 61-73 deg F in the lowlands with little to no change along the coast. /DH && .AVIATION...Surface high pressure centered offshore will maintain VFR conditions across the airspace. Diurnal north to northwest winds continue at 15-20 kt with gusts to 30 kt along the coast, and 10-15 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt inland. East-west oriented gaps, such as the Columbia Gorge and including KTTD, remain shielded from the wind and will see lighter flow below 10 kt out of the west to northwest. Winds aloft will turn offshore tonight, while surface winds ease to 5 kt or less out of the north to northeast. Marine stratus is favored to remain west of coastal terminals given developing offshore flow. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions beneath largely clear skies expected throughout the period. Diurnal northwest winds of 10-15 kt with gusts of 20 kt will ease below 5 kt late this evening, after 06z Mon. -36 && .MARINE...High pressure building offshore will continue to generate gusty north winds through much of Monday. A weak feature moving overhead through tonight will support accelerated winds today, before easing overnight and re-strengthening on Monday. Small Craft Advisories are now in effect across all coastal waters for gusts of up to 25-30 kt, with the strongest winds south of Cape Foulweather and weaker flow north of Cape Falcon. The Advisory north of Cape Falcon including the Columbia River Bar is expected to expire late this evening, while areas south of Cape Falcon will maintain hazardous conditions through late Monday evening. Weakening high pressure Monday night through Tuesday will see wind gusts across the waters ease below 20 kt. Seas continue at 4-8 ft at 9-10 seconds with a dominant WNW swell. A pattern change midweek will see high pressure replaced by a trough offshore. Winds will shift southwesterly ahead of a decaying front Wednesday morning, then turn northwesterly again in its wake by Wednesday night. Rain shower chances will reach 30-50% beyond 30-40 NM Wednesday morning, but remain below 15-20% elsewhere as the weakening front moves onshore. Unsettled weather continues through the remainder of the week, with further rain possible next weekend as another front traverses the waters. A persistent westerly swell will support continued seas of 4-8 ft at 10-11 seconds. -36 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ210. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Monday for PZZ251-271. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ252-253-272- 273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

982 FXUS66 KMFR 312150 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 250 PM PDT Sun May 31 2026 .DISCUSSION... There are some cumulus buildups along the Oregon Cascades and other higher terrain locations this afternoon as a short wave moves through the forecast area. Otherwise, clear skies over valley locations as temperatures warm through the 70`s. With clear skies tonight, low temps will drop fairly quickly into the mid 40`s west of the Cascades and lower to mid 30`s east of the Cascades. We`ll begin our warm up on Monday as some light easterly flow off the Cascade crest pushes temperatures well into 80`s west of the Cascades with some mid to upper 70`s along the Oregon coast near Brookings. One could analyze a thermal trough west of the Cascades with a ridge in the 1000-500 mb thickness values and easterly flow persisting off the Cascades around 2000 to 3000 feet above sea level. This will keep things warm into Tuesday and the extreme forecast index is forecasting values around 0.7 to 0.8, so not extreme or record breaking, yet warmer than normal temperatures for early June. By Tuesday night into Wednesday, a deeper negative tilted trough will approach the Oregon coastline. Odds are there will be some showers or perhaps thunderstorms east of the Cascades by Tuesday afternoon. Ensemble members are producing some lighter precipitation west of the Cascades in the QPF. In any case, be prepared for some lighter drizzle of brief showers west of the Cascades Wednesday morning and afternoon even through the NBM is forecasting a PoP near 0. The latest NBM has had an observed dry bias, so the PoP forecast is probably too low. We return to a more zonal flow pattern after the trough passes through Oregon and temperatures remain near seasonal normals for early June. No weather impacts anticipated Thursday into Friday with normal temperatures and seasonal valley breezes. Another deep trough and surface low will arrive in the Pacific Northwest on Saturday. Models are focusing the heavier QPF to our north. However, there are few members(~10-15%) that bring some heavier wetting rains here to southern Oregon. Right now the NBM PoP forecast has a 30-40 percent chance of rain along the Cascades with about 20 percent along the coast, which seems a little strange as it should be higher. In any case, it will definitely trend cooler by the weekend with highs in the lower 70`s. -Smith && .AVIATION...31/18z TAFs...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with typical afternoon breezes. North winds will be strongest along the gust, peaking around 25-30 kt this afternoon. VFR should prevail overnight into Monday morning, but isolated areas of LIFR are possible in the Coquille and Umpqua Basins. /BR-y && .MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Sunday, May 31, 2026...A thermal trough pattern will maintain gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas through Monday. Conditions worsen today as north winds increase to gales south of Gold Beach with very steep seas expected from Bandon southward. Conditions hazardous to small craft are expected for all other areas. Winds ease some tonight and even moreso on Monday, but steep to very steep seas are expected through Monday. Conditions improve for all areas by Tuesday as the thermal trough pushes inland and north winds weaken below advisory levels. Below advisory conditions likely persist through the remainder of the week with a low west-northwest persistent swell. /BR-y && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356-370. Gale Warning until 2 AM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376. Hazardous Seas Warning until 2 AM PDT Monday for PZZ370-376. && $$

606 FXUS66 KEKA 312021 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 121 PM PDT Sun May 31 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Temperatures warm through Monday with building high pressure and limited cloudcover. Breezy northerly winds expected Sunday before winds ease into next week. Marine clouds return Tuesday and a general cooling trend is expected through the week. && .KEY MESSAGES... -Breezy winds at the coast Sunday -Warmer and drier conditions peak Monday -Gradual cooling and return of the marine layer are expected starting Wednesday and continuing through the week. .DISCUSSION...High pressure is building into the area this afternoon. This is bringing clear skies and a notable warmup. The northerly winds will be fairly strong again at the coast and this is expected to keep temperatures near 60 today. Tonight weak offshore flow is expected again. This may not be enough to keep skies clear and some coastal stratus could form again tonight. This is still expected to be fairly limited in coverage and should clear by midday. The near coastal valleys may see some patchy fog again tonight as well. Monday is expected to be the warmest day across much of the area. Once any coastal clouds clear the northerly winds will increase, but generally are expected to be lighter than on Sunday allowing highs to warm into the middle 60s at the immediate coast. This is the current forecast, however there is also another possible scenario. The lighter winds could allow clouds to linger and prevent the immediate coast from seeing much warming. Monday night into Tuesday the upper level ridge axis shifts slightly to the east. Confidence is higher that this will bring a return of marine clouds to the near coastal and coastal areas early in the morning. The question is how close to the coast will the clouds clear. The HREF shows skies clear by midday and returning quickly in the evening. This will also keep areas 20 to 30 miles inland cooler than on Monday due to the marine influence. The areas farthest inland may see a few more degrees of warming on Tuesday. Wednesday an upper level trough moves into the Pacific Northwest and this may bring some rain to the north of the area. This will continue to enhance the marine layer and may bring some coastal drizzle to our area south of the Oregon border. This will cool inland temperatures back into the mid 80s. Thursday and Friday the flow remains fairly zonal and onshore. This is expected to keep inland temperatures near or slightly above seasonal normals. Saturday a few showers or sprinkles are possible in Del Norte county, but confidence is low on this. The ensemble clusters indicate a number of the solution keep the ridge slightly stronger and this may keep the rain farther to the north. MKK && .AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected for terminals throughout Northwest California this afternoon and evening due to gusty north to northwest winds. Gusts from 20 to 30 knots can be expected. The gustiest winds are anticipated for terminals in Del Norte and Humboldt counties with the highest gusts at terminals along the coast and further north in these counties. Winds will decrease later this evening and overnight, especially for Humboldt County. Light offshore flow could help deter coastal stratus formation; however, MVFR to IFR ceilings could still develop tomorrow morning before sunrise. This is particularly true around Humboldt Bay, with stratus potentially pulsing in and out of ACV`s aerodrome. Lighter and more westerly winds can be expected for terminals in Mendocino, Lake and Trinity counties with mostly VFR conditions throughout the TAF period. /JLW && .MARINE...Strong northerly winds will continue through tonight, with gale conditions in the outer waters, and also around Cape Mendocino and Point St George. Steep and hazardous seas will continue in response and are expected to propagate into the inner waters periodically. A Hazardous Seas Warning continues for the northern inner waters, while Gale Warnings remain for the outer zones. Conditions will improve Monday with easing winds and seas. Winds and seas will then remain low over the northern waters through mid week, while stronger northerlies remain in the southern waters, mainly confined around Cape Mendocino. A small, long period southerly swell will slowly build in through early this week. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ450. Hazardous Seas Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Monday for PZZ450. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for PZZ455. Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Monday for PZZ470. Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

059 FXUS66 KMTR 312159 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 259 PM PDT Sun May 31 2026 ...New MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 125 PM PDT Sun May 31 2026 - Long period southwest swell will result in an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents through Tuesday morning - Continued warming for today and Monday - Slightly cooler temperatures for the second half of the forecast && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 125 PM PDT Sun May 31 2026 (This evening through Monday) A compressed marine layer allowed for a quick erosion of coastal stratus in the mid to late morning. Now we`re seeing clear skies into the afternoon with light to moderate winds and temperatures already warming into the 70s in the interior. Highs looks to stay around 60 along the immediate coast with 70s for the more inland areas, 80s for the interior, and a few 90s in the far interior. This is as a ridge pattern takes a better hold onto the region, calling for continued compression of the marine layer, weakening winds, and building temperatures. The compressed marine layer (around 500 ft) will still have good moisture content overnight, leading to very low coastal clouds and pockets of fog. Because of how compressed the marine layer is, don`t expect much of an inland push overnight, causing most of the region to stay cloud free. However, the lack of winds and a slight thermal belt, look to allow some of the day time heat to linger into the night, placing lows more into the 50s than the 40s of the last few nights. This is all to say the warming trend is continuing. Monday will offer similar stratus clearing times, but an overall warmer afternoon. The coast will still be around 60 degrees and the slightly inland areas in the 70s, but much more of the interior will break into the mid to upper 80s and more areas in the far interior will build into the 90s. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 125 PM PDT Sun May 31 2026 (Monday night through next Saturday) Overnight temperatures will continue the warming trend as well with most of the falling into the 50s Monday night into Tuesday, with a few 60s in the higher elevations due to the influence of the thermal belt. Tuesday offers a change of pace as a weak trough disrupts the ridging pattern. This will push some cloud cover through the area and offer better onshore flow. High temperatures will see some modest cooling for most of the district, but mostly on the scale of a few degrees. This change in flow will offer a weak cooling trend for the rest of the work week. More notable cooling looks to arrive as another, deeper trough builds. Our friends in Oregon may see some rain from this through, while our current chances seem to be limited to a coastal drizzle session. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1043 AM PDT Sun May 31 2026 Quiet weather is on tap with VFR conditions prevailing for the majority of the area through the TAF cycle. Breezy onshore winds will return today and the decrease through the evening hours. Beyond that, stratus tries to make a return along the San Francisco Peninsula and then around the Central Coast and into the Salinas Valley. The marine layer looks to be around 500-1000ft which should keep things confined the aforementioned areas. MVFR cigs are likely, though pockets of IFR cigs are possible. Vicinity of SFO...VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with onshore flow increasing through the afternoon. Gusts up to 20- 22kt are expected after 21Z, with winds gradually decreasing after sunset. Opted to hint at a few low clouds developing Monday morning around sunrise, though VFR conditions will remain. The better chance for cigs returning looks to be Tuesday morning. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...The stratus has cleared up for the majority of the Monterey Bay region, leaving terminals with VFR conditions. This should hold through much of the forecast period, with stratus making a return early Monday morning. The question will be, whether we stick to MVFR cigs or go down to IFR. Opted to tweak KMRY to MVFR cigs and hint at the possibility of IFR conditions. For KSNS, kept the more pessimistic forecast given this morning`s observations. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 259 PM PDT Sun May 31 2026 Fresh to strong northerly winds with occasional near gale force gusts and rough seas will continue through tonight. Winds begin to ease into Monday morning, with seas slowly subsiding as well. Lighter north to northwest winds continue through Tuesday, with winds increasing for the middle and later parts of the week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1201 AM PDT Sun May 31 2026 A Beach Hazards Statement will come into effect at 5 AM today through Tuesday morning due to an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents. Long period southwest swell is approaching the Pacific coast, with periods of 18 to 20 seconds and a height of around 2 feet in the open waters. These long period swells result in increased risk of sneaker waves, potentially deadly waves which surge much further up the beach than expected and sweep unaware beachgoers into the ocean, and strong rip currents that can sweep the strongest swimmers away from shore. Never turn your back to the ocean! Inexperienced swimmers should stay from the water. Observe the waves for 20 minutes before moving closer. Swim near a lifeguard if possible, and if caught in a rip current, swim parallel to the coast away from the current, and then at an angle to shore. DialH && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late Monday night for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Murdock LONG TERM....Murdock AVIATION...KR MARINE...KR Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

218 FXUS66 KOTX 312040 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 140 PM PDT Sun May 31 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showery conditions for northeast Washington and north Idaho through Tuesday. Best chances for beneficial showers Monday. - Unsettled conditions mid to late next week with another pair of systems. && .SYNOPSIS... Minor impacts are expected this week. A showery regime early this week will be replaced by a warmer and more unstable regime by Wednesday. There is a 10-30% chance of thunderstorms across the Inland Northwest Wednesday afternoon and evening. Behind this system, cooler and showery conditions return. && .DISCUSSION... Sunday through Tuesday: The early week looks fairly quiet with near normal temperatures and dry conditions in central Washington. Breezy north winds gusting up to 30 mph will continue today and tomorrow down the Okanogan Valley. Eastern Washington and north Idaho will be cooler and occasionally showery (especially near the Canadian border in the Panhandle) as a weak upper level low loiters over north central Montana. The best chances for showers and perhaps an isolated lightning strike early this week will be Monday afternoon in far NE Washington and the Idaho Panhandle as a vort max pivots west from MT into ID. Stronger cells will be capable of pea size hail and gusty outflow winds up to 30 mph. Temperatures will trend warmer across the board by Tuesday as high pressure strengthens in coastal British Columbia, leading to subtle height rises in the Inland Northwest. By Tuesday, temperatures will increase into the high 60s to low 80s. From this afternoon to Tuesday afternoon there is a 20% chance for an additional quarter inch of rain at Kellogg and Sandpoint. Those chances increase to 50% at Bonners Ferry. These chances remain similar to yesterday. Wednesday through Saturday: The next wave arrives Wednesday which will bring more chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms. Forecast instability looks fairly meager around 100-500 J/kg so not expecting widespread severe weather like this past Thursday. This wave will bring fairly widespread but weak synoptic ascent for forcing storms in the afternoon and evening hours. Chances for thunderstorms ranges around 10-30% Wednesday afternoon and evening with the highest chances in SE Washington and the southern Panhandle. Temperatures will peak Wednesday in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Models are in good agreement of strengthening zonal flow ahead of another trough by Thursday evening. This trough will bring another round of cooler of cooler temperatures, breezy winds, and additional chances for showers. DB && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFs: The Inland Northwest remains under the influence of subtle ridging to the west and a stationary upper-level low in western Montana. Moisture from the low will bring a consistent stream of high level clouds across far eastern Washington and North Idaho. For today, VFR conditions will prevail with breezy afternoon winds and infrequent gusts up to 20 knots. Winds will gradually decrease through evening. Shower chances (40-80%) begin to increase across the Idaho Panhandle, including KCOE, KSZT, and Bonners Ferry after 12Z Monday, with the higher chances along the ID/MT border. Shower chances (20-60%) expand into northeast Washington after 18Z Monday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions for all TAF sites. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 47 65 45 71 46 77 / 0 20 10 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 48 63 46 70 48 77 / 10 50 10 0 0 0 Pullman 44 66 43 70 45 75 / 0 0 10 0 0 0 Lewiston 50 73 50 76 51 81 / 0 0 10 0 0 0 Colville 42 68 40 73 41 79 / 0 40 10 0 0 10 Sandpoint 46 59 44 67 45 75 / 50 80 40 10 0 10 Kellogg 47 61 45 69 45 77 / 20 70 10 10 0 0 Moses Lake 49 77 48 79 50 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Wenatchee 54 78 56 79 57 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 20 Omak 51 75 50 78 53 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

159 FXUS66 KPDT 312130 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 230 PM PDT Sun May 31 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions with warming temperatures through midweek. Cooler thereafter. - Mountain showers and thunderstorms return Wednesday into early Thursday, then possibly again over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... An upper low remains over Montana with a larger trough over the Pacific Northwest. Both of these features will remain in place through Monday. By Tuesday, some weak ridging will move over the Pacific Northwest. Due to the proximity of the trough, a couple of passing showers can not be ruled out over far eastern Oregon on Monday, but dry weather is generally expected. On Wednesday, a trough and some shortwave energy will bring a chance of showers and a low chance of thunderstorms (<20 percent), mainly to the mountains, which will linger into Thursday. The trough moves out of the area by Friday, bringing a return to dry weather. There will be some breezy winds with this system on Wednesday into Thursday. NBM Probabilities of wind gusts >=39 mph across the Columbia Basin, Gorge, and Simcoe Highlands are generally in the 30 to 60 percent range. By late Friday or early Saturday, an upper low, off the coast will make its way inland and bring a renewed threat of showers and thunderstorms, again mainly for the mountains. There is still some uncertainty with the strength and location of this low, and therefore what its ultimate impacts will be, but we have 5 days to see how this play out. Depending on the ultimate track, there could be some gusty winds Friday and/or Saturday as well, especially for the Cascade Gaps, Simcoe Highlands, Columbia Basin and Gorge and Blue Mountain Foothills. NBM probabilities of wind gusts >= 39 mph are in the 30 to 70 percent Friday and 50 to 80 percent Saturday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... VFR and dry weather conditions persist through the TAF period. Winds remain fairly light and variable at less than 12 knots, with the exception of the DLS experiencing 10 to 20 knots through the afternoon hours. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 45 76 48 78 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 50 76 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 48 80 51 82 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 48 81 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 46 80 50 81 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 45 76 48 77 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 34 74 41 79 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 41 73 44 76 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 37 75 42 80 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 49 83 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...77 AVIATION...95

697 FXUS65 KREV 311903 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1203 PM PDT Sun May 31 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Slight chance (10-15%) of showers and isolated thunderstorms across NE California and NW Nevada this afternoon, with similar chances in the Sierra of Mono County Monday. * Fog development for fog-prone Sierra valleys again tonight through tomorrow morning. * Above normal temperatures through mid-week, with a pattern change arriving by the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Similar precip chances (10-15%) again today for NE CA and the Sierra Front south of I-80. Like we`ve seen all weekend, we`ll get those cumulus buildups along the higher terrain which will then push eastward due to the zephyr kicking in. Shower chances (10%) shift to the Sierra of Mono county on Monday. Confidence remains low on any substantial impacts from any showers that develop. Fog potential renews for Sierra valleys again tonight through tomorrow morning. Fog development will be more localized to Truckee and the Martis Valley as the weak upper level low exits the region and ridging fills back in, bringing drier conditions. High temps reach the upper 80s (valleys) and upper 70s (Sierra) by mid-week. Moderate HeatRisk is introduced to the lower valleys of the Basin and Range Wednesday and Friday. Make sure to drink plenty of water! There`s a slight shortwave in the upper level pattern Wednesday, which will bring increased afternoon zephyr winds. There`s a 30-60% chance for wind gusts over 30 mph Wednesday. With the warm conditions and low RH values, isolated areas of 2-4 hours of critical fire weather conditions are likely, especially where already dry fuels reside. Long range guidance agrees on a pattern change this weekend, with the arrival of an upper level trough. However, models are having difficulty pinpointing the location and timing of the low. Precip chances will be restricted to far N Washoe county along the OR border, with the main concern areawide being gusty winds. 700 mb winds are increasing in response to the low so, at the very least, expect localized impacts to air travel with bumpy flights. Additional impacts include choppy lake waters and fire weather concerns with 3-7 hours of critical fire weather conditions. -Giralte && .AVIATION... Fog is expected to redevelop overnight at KTRK/the Martis Valley, lowering CIGS/VIS to IFR/LIFR conditions at times between 10Z and 16Z. Elsewhere, VFR conditions and light winds prevail through the morning. An increasing cumulus field should develop along higher terrain this afternoon, possibly obscuring mountaintops. Otherwise, expect another day of widespread VFR conditions and breezy W/NW winds in the afternoon. -Salas && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$

641 FXUS66 KSTO 311923 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1223 PM PDT Sun May 31 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Dry and warming weather this week, with areas of Moderate HeatRisk, low humidity and periodically breezy winds especially late Wednesday into Thursday. -Delta breezes starting Tuesday continuing through the week. && .DISCUSSION... ...Monday... Very interesting upper pattern in place on Monday with a closed weak upper low over Montana, very anomalous heights in central Canada with a stronger closed low in the Gulf of Alaska. California kinda in the middle of all this with short wave ridging with its axis to the west of us. This will result in dry and warm conditions in the lower 90s. ...Tuesday... Above mentioned pattern evolves a bit with Montana low filling and Gulf of Alaska trough moving a bit to the south and east. This places the upper short wave ridge more over the top of us and begins to open us up to onshore westerly flow. Looks like some delta breezes should kick in by Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures warm just a bit for another dry day with temperatures in the lower to mid 90s. ...Wednesday through Friday... A weaker wave will push across northern California and the Pacific Northwest from the Gulf of Alaska closed low. This will increase southerly pressure gradients across the area by Wednesday night into Thursday for some breezy southerly winds. Drying isn`t super bad as far as fire weather is concerned but humidities will drop into the teens during this times. Looking at red flag warning criteria it may be met a few hours during this time, but overall not looking too bad right now. We will highlight this in the fire weather forecast though. Eventually by Friday afternoon, heights lower as the Gulf of Alaska low pushing into the PacNW. ...Saturday... Temperatures should cool due to the upper low in the PacNW. Looks like a fairly good gradient should be in place so breezy conditions seem likely Saturday but relative humidities should be reasonable as far as fire weather conditions are concerned. WMR && .AVIATION... VFR conditions at TAF sites over the next 24 hours. Decreasing northerly flow today. Surface winds generally at or below 12 kts, except in the Delta vicinity with west-southwest winds 10 to 15 kts with gusts to 20 kts from 23Z-06Z and again after 23Z Monday. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

585 FXUS65 KMSO 311953 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 153 PM MDT Sun May 31 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Through Monday: A slow moving weather system will bring prolonged, moderate to heavy rainfall, focused along the divide and in Glacier Park region. - River, stream, and creek rises from widespread rain and snow melt, leading to the potential minor flooding. A widespread rainfall event will continue through Tuesday as a low pressure system spins over central Montana. The focus of precipitation is now north I-90 and east of US-93. Currently, radar is estimating light precipitation rates but it is expected for periods of moderate precipitation to pulse into northwest MT through midnight. An additional 0.50 to 1.50 inches of precipitation is possible from the Mission Valley/ mountains and eastward to the Continental Divide. Some flooding concerns continue, especially at Flathead River near Colombia Falls and Clark Fork above Missoula. These river systems may not peak until Monday afternoon. Most streams and creeks are running cold and fast, exercise caution when recreating in or around any water body. Snow levels are above 7000 feet, the main concern now is cold, wet, and raw back country conditions. Any recreators should prepare for these conditions. A quick mid-week warmup brings us back to normal temperatures or slightly above normal. Late Wednesday into Thursday and again Saturday into Sunday, could bring more unsettled weather producing showers and thunderstorms. More to come on the evolution of these systems. && .AVIATION...A large upper low will wobble around eastern Montana into Monday bringing periods of precipitation into the Northern Rockies. The heaviest precipitation will be north of I-90, mountain obscurations will be common, with visibility and ceilings down to MVFR at times (infrequently to IFR) at KGPI and occasionally KMSO. Other terminal sites and across north-central Idaho will see lower precipitation chances and lesser aviation impacts. West to northwest winds of 15-20 kts will be common each afternoon as well. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Flood Watch through Monday morning for Flathead/Mission Valleys...West Glacier Region. ID...None. && $$

882 FXUS65 KBOI 312021 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 221 PM MDT Sun May 31 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer and decreased wind Monday with temperatures rising to near normal. - Temperatures warming to around 5-10 degrees above normal by mid week. - Breezy Wednesday and Thursday with shower and thunderstorm potential across the north. && .SHORT TERM /Through Tuesday Night/... An upper level low over Montana will slowly move northeast into southern Canada by Monday night and Tuesday. The forecast area will generally remain dry as the low pulls away but on Monday, a weak trough from the Pacific Northwest will move across our area and merge with the Montana low. This will introduce a 10-20% chance of showers and thunderstorms to the central Idaho mountains, mainly over eastern Valley County, and the upper reaches of the Boise River Basin. Temperatures will increase up to 5 degrees on Monday with the upward trend in temperatures continuing on Tuesday as a weak upper level ridge moves over the forecast area. Winds will be lighter Monday and Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /Wednesday through Sunday/... Daytime temperatures will continue to warm to about 10 degrees above normal Wednesday as southwest flow develops ahead of a weak, Pacific trough. The trough and accompanying cold front are forecast to arrive late Wednesday, introducing shower and thunderstorm chances across northern Harney and Malheur Counties, and Baker County, and west-central Idaho Wednesday into Thursday. Winds will become breezy behind the cold front on Thursday, with temperatures lowering by several degrees. Dry and warming conditions will develop once again Friday ahead of the next Pacific trough expected for the weekend. This system will support stronger wind gusts for both Saturday and Sunday as it tracks east through Oregon and Idaho. Models currently disagree on shower/thunderstorm development, but the arrival of the cold front late Saturday will ensure much cooler temperatures by Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z Sunday through Monday/... Issued 1156 AM MDT SUN MAY 31 2026 VFR. Surface winds: W-NW 5-15 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt from KBOI to KTWF/KJER. Winds diminishing around sunset. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-NW 10-20 kt. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: NW 5-12 kt with gusts to around 20 kt. Gusty winds diminishing after 01/01Z. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...TL LONG TERM....TL AVIATION.....TL

063 FXUS65 KLKN 311933 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1233 PM PDT Sun May 31 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Gradual warming trend through the week * Dry weather in store for the region into next weekend * Stronger winds possible next Saturday && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Saturday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper level low to the north over Washington is dragging its axis through the Great Basin Sunday, though a lack of moisture over the area keeps Sunday afternoon and evening dry. The low will broaden its axis into the early week keeping westerly upper level flow over the area for the next few days. After a fairly active weather week for northern and central NV the general storm track over the western CONUS has lifted back to the north. A series of upper level waves will graze the northern border of the state this week riding the flow of a parent LPC slowly migrating eastward along the US-Canadian border. The region is moisture starved through the week so appreciable precipitation will be hard to come by for the next 5-6 days. On Wednesday limited CAPE values and PW values topping out around 0.5 inches along the eastern border in Elko and White Pine Counties may lead to some build ups and maybe an isolated dry thunderstorm though probabilities are long high at this time. Forcing will be of a diurnal nature thanks to a gradual warming trend that has already begun across the area. Thanks to low level southerly flow afternoon temperatures will increase a couple of degrees each day, reaching the mid to upper 80s by late week. This will be about 5-10 degrees above normal though no local records look to be in jeopardy at this time. By late week a strong upper level low will begin to make its way into the Pacific NW. While the bulk of the system will remain to the north of the area its tightening pressure gradient will increase wind speeds across the area on Saturday. Future scrutiny of model runs will be needed to check for the possibility of Wind Products for the upcoming weekend. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in a warming trend this week. Moderate confidence in dry weather through the week. Moderate confidence in stronger winds next Saturday. No major changes needed to the grids at this time. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through Monday afternoon. No precipitation is anticipated through the forecast period. Northeast winds will increase at KWMC overnight tonight up to 15KTs with gusts up to 25KTs before sunrise when winds will diminish. && .FIRE WEATHER... Conditions are expected to remain on the dry side across northern and central Nevada through the upcoming week. Winds will be light with occasional afternoon gusts to 20 mph through mid-week with winds becoming more breezy with gusts to 25 mph. Minimum relative humidity values will be in the single digit to low teen range each afternoon with highs warming to well above normal levels by mid-week. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...99 FIRE WEATHER...86