694 FXUS66 KSEW 220315 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 814 PM PDT Sun Jun 21 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure will build under a ridge across western Washington early this week. Temperatures will increase going into Monday and Tuesday, with highs into the 80s and 90s for many in the interior. Moderate HeatRisk will remain a concern for those spending significant time outside. Additionally, dry air with a weak offshore and thermal trough pattern will lead to elevated fire concerns for grassy and shrubby areas that are dry. The second half of the week is significantly cooler with the first chance of precipitable moisture in a couple weeks, with breezy conditions at times. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Western WA remains quite dry this afternoon, with the surface pattern remaining quite neutral in between lower pressure to the east, and higher pressure to the west. A few high clouds on satellite are moving east across the interior, with some clouds rolling south from B.C., and a large area of stratus offshore. Highs today remain in the upper 70s to low 80s in the interior (but may come in a few degrees cooler due to the high clouds). The coast will stay in the 60s. Lows tonight drop into the low to mid 50s. An upper level ridge offshore will begin to move inland tomorrow and Tuesday, with the thermal trough setting up in the interior (rather than the coastline). As heights build with more sinking motion provided by the higher pressure, temperatures will warm quite a bit going into Monday and Tuesday, with Tuesday being the warmest day this week. There remains a heat advisory across a majority of the lowlands (including Cascade valleys, islands, and all but the immediate Washington/Pacific Coast and mountains). This goes into effect 11 am Monday and expires for at 11 PM Tuesday night (except for Puget Sound which goes through 11 PM Wednesday night). Temperatures will be quite warm (especially on Tuesday), with widespread highs into the upper 80s and low 90s. HeatRisk is moderate for much of the interior, and a couple isolated pockets of major HeatRisk can`t be ruled out for portions of Puget Sound/Seattle metro (although the major likelihood remains at 20-30%). Overnight lows will increase into the upper 50s, with low 60s in the Seattle area. Those spending time outdoors next few days should take breaks in the shade, or in an air conditioned room when possible, stay hydrated, and wear sun-screen and loose fitting clothing to minimize the potential for heat-related illness. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Beginning Tuesday night into Wednesday, the onshore gradients are expected to increase significantly as the ridge moves inland, which should increase cloud coverage significantly going into Wednesday. There remains some model disagreements into how warm it will be exactly going into Wednesday (especially given the timing of the onshore push), but the message of moderate HeatRisk continuing into Wednesday for Puget Sound remains (especially given the overnight lows are the warmest this morning). Thus the heat advisory will continue for now into Wednesday, but there remains a descent spread into the temperatures for the first onshore push (and some limitations of the models handling the first push). As the ridge flattens and move east, ensembles bring in a cooler pattern as the flow transitions to zonal, and eventually a trough pattern going into Friday for the region as a low drops down from the Gulf of Alaska. Highs will cool into the 60s and 70s for much of the interior, and an increase of moisture from the trough/Pacific will lead to the first chance of rain/showers in a couple of weeks. The wettest day appears to be Friday with at least a 10-15% chance of thunder with this activity. Winds will become breezy at times in this part of the forecast. The southwest interior/Strait of Juan de Fuca areas will see the winds first Wednesday, as well as the immediate ridge areas of the Cascades. Friday and Satuday`s front may result in more widespread winds for the interior. While winds gusting over 20-25 mph appear likely, probabilities for over 30 mph remains low. HPR && .AVIATION... VFR conditions remain in place over W WA this evening with mostly clear skies over the area. Current satellite shows marine stratus holding steady over the coast with limited incursion onto land. Stratus having more success moving eastward through the Strait, but no impacts to land, including terminals. Any additional eastward progress will be limited, with only HQM expected to dip down into MVFR to IFR conditions overnight...although CLM may need to be monitored should stratus over the waters of the Strait start to spillover onto land. Terrain driven winds resulting in a variety of directions depending on the terminal, although speeds generally falling into the 4-8 kts range. Winds will continue to ease tonight with many terminals becoming light and variable around midnight tonight. Widespread northerly winds ranging 5-10 kts expected to resume by Monday afternoon, with some variances to the northwest or northeast depending on location. HQM will be the exception, although speeds will be similar, direction is likely to be more westerly. 18 KSEA...VFR expected through the TAF period. Winds stubbornly remaining westerly but still expected to shift northerly by 06Z tonight and remain there into Monday. Speeds overnight generally 4-8 kts, picking up by 18Z to 8-12 kts with occasional gusts up to 20 kts possible. Speeds ease Monday evening with a slight shift to the northeast Monday night. 18 && .MARINE... High pressure will increase offshore early this week as an upper level ridge moves inland. The immediate coastline and coastal waters will likely continue to see north/northwest winds due to the thermal trough setting up closer into the interior. The remaining inland areas will see a mix of light northwest to northeast winds with the pattern through Tuesday night. Onshore will return Tuesday night, with a trough also dropping down with a front by late week. The next best chance of winds over 20 kt will come late Tuesday in the outer coastal waters, with a strong push likely in the Strait of Juan de Fuca Wednesday into Thursday (30-50% chance of gale gusts with this push). The late week front will have the potential to produce widespread winds across most waters with gusts over 20 kt. Seas 4-6 ft through the end of the week, the 7-9 ft seas with short periods of 7-8 seconds with the frontal system late this week. HPR && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure will increase inland under a ridge early this week. This ridge combined with a thermal trough setting up inland in the interior will result in a few days of elevated fire conditions via warm, dry, and conditional unstable air across the region. The offshore flow in the interior/Cascades will result in humidity values dropping into the twenties, and even the teens going into Monday, Tuesday, and potentially Wednesday. Fuels are approaching critical levels, but the main concern remains dry grasses or shrubs, or dead piles of fuels where brush fires may be able to start (as seen the past couple days). Onshore flow will return late Tuesday night and make it inland on Wednesday with improved moisture, and the first chance of wetting rain in a couple of weeks for much of the region. HPR && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-Foothills and Valleys of Thurston and Lewis Counties-Foothills and Valleys of the North Cascades-Foothills of the Western and Southern Olympic Peninsula-Island County-Lower Chehalis River Valley-Lowlands of Lewis and Southern Thurston Counties- Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish Counties-Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-Middle Chehalis River Valley-Northern Hood Canal-Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Port Townsend Area-San Juan County- Southern Hood Canal-Willapa and Black Hills. Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for City of Seattle-Downtown Everett / Marysville Area- Eastern Kitsap County-Eastside-Foothills and Valleys of Central King County-Foothills and Valleys of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Lowlands of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Shoreline / Lynnwood / South Everett Area. PZ...None. && $$

173 FXUS66 KPQR 220529 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 1029 PM PDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Updated aviation and marine discussions. .SYNOPSIS...Over the next 5 to 7 days we`ll get to experience a bit of everything weather-wise as we go from hot/dry to cooler and wet. The hottest days of the week are expected on Monday and Tuesday with inland high temperatures punching into the 90s accompanied by widespread Moderate to near Major HeatRisk values. A Heat Advisory is in effect for the inland valleys Salem northward through the Portland Metro/SW Washington including the Columbia River Gorge. Fairly warm overnight temperatures may provide a limited window of overnight relief in our urban centers. Temperatures begin to slowly trend cooler Wednesday with moderate to high confidence in a cool and wetter pattern (by June standards) taking hold to end the week. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Saturday...Skies have completely cleared this afternoon thanks to a ridge of high pressure amplifying just off the coastline. This ridge feature will help facilitate a period of abnormally warm conditions to start the work week as it progresses overhead with the majority of guidance pointing to high temperatures exceeding 90F across the inland valleys of southwest Washington and western Oregon Monday and Tuesday. However, compared to yesterday, NBM model guidance has decreased projected high temperatures by ~1-4 degrees across the inland valleys areas while also nudging overnight minimum temperatures a touch lower as well. This correction may be due to the NBM finally being within the time period to ingest shorter-range high resolution guidance, and/or better ensemble agreement on the eastward placement of the surface thermal trough axis. Nonetheless, heat related impacts may still be felt from the Central Willamette Valley through the Portland Metro, Columbia River Gorge, and the southwest Washington lowlands where a Heat Advisory is in effect through Tuesday evening. For those hoping to see us rise into the triple digits Mon/Tue those chances are waning but still worth pointing out as the NBM maintains a 10-30% chance for the central/south Portland metro to meet or exceed 100F Tuesday afternoon. We`ll see how these probabilities evolve come tonight/tomorrow`s forecast although they`ll likely continue to drop given the latest trends and overall set-up not appearing conducive for 100+ degree temperatures as we maintain weak NNW flow on Tuesday. If you`re a glutton for truly hot conditions you`d want a much stronger easterly component of the low-level flow (surface-850mb), the surface thermal trough axis placed along the coastline or just offshore, and a stronger ridge of high pressure overhead - in this case it`s weakening temporally. That said, temperatures are still expected to be 15-20 degrees above normal even without the aforementioned variables aligning. Make sure to stay hydrated, wearing light-colored and loose-fitted clothing, wearing sun protection, and taking frequent breaks from the heat. If possible, schedule outdoor plans during the early morning or late evening when temperatures will be less intense. Then on Wednesday the vast majority of ensemble members kick the broader upper-level ridge axis east of the Cascade crest- line during the daytime hours. This should allow for high temperatures to drop a few degrees into the upper 80s to low 90s across the interior lowlands although the greatest day the day temperature change will likely be felt along the coast and in the some of the coast range valleys as westerly flow begins to increase in earnest. The latest NBM still gives a 20-50% chance for highs to exceed 95 degrees Wednesday afternoon from Salem to the Portland- Vancouver Metro - something to watch. At least confidence is very high temperatures begin a noticeable descent back to normal, then below normal, the remainder of the week as the upper-level pattern undergoes a significant shift. Thursday through the start of the weekend the majority of deterministic and ensemble guidance are depicting a upper-level trough of low pressure moving into the Pacific Northwest ushering in a cooler and wetter pattern. There still remains some uncertainty with the exact timing, placement, and magnitude of the trough, and thus there is uncertainty regarding exact precipitation amounts. The latest ensembles, including the NBM, are highlighting late Thursday night into Friday morning as best chance (60-95%) for rainfall during this late week period, mainly focused along the coast, coast range, Portland Metro through SW Washington, and in the Cascades. Should the core of the upper-level trough/low track overhead Friday and Saturday, post-frontal thunderstorms are another concern we`ll have to watch. At the end of the day, any precipitation be can get this time of year is largely beneficial and we`ll take what we can get during this late week/early weekend period. -99 && .AVIATION...Satellite and surface weather observations from 0530Z Monday showed low marine stratus beginning to fill in along the coast with ceilings around 700-800 ft. Expect this stratus deck to linger through tonight at the coast, before scattering out and pushing back offshore around 17-18Z Monday. However, there is a 30-40% chance low clouds will fail to clear out at KONP on Monday. Meanwhile, inland areas will remain clear with VFR conditions. Light winds tonight will increase out of the north late Monday morning into Monday afternoon to 7-11 kt. Winds may occasionally gusts as high as 15-18 kt between 22Z Monday and 03Z Tuesday, except up to 20 kt at KONP. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Clear skies will maintain VFR conditions through 06Z Tuesday. Northwest winds around 7 kt this evening should become light and variable around 08Z Tuesday. Winds increase out of the north after 20Z Monday with gusts up to around 15-17 kt by late Monday afternoon. -23 && .MARINE...Northwesterly winds will generally stay under 20 kt through Monday morning, aside from occasional small craft advisory wind gusts up to 21 kt over the outer waters. Seas will remain steep and choppy around 5-7 ft in the outer waters through at least Tuesday morning. High pressure re-builds Monday afternoon into Tuesday, tightening pressure gradients and increasing north-northwesterly winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the outer waters (beyond 10 NM offshore) until 5 AM Tuesday for the waters south of Cape Falcon. For the outer waters north of Cape Falcon, the Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 5 AM Monday. Expect seas of 5 to 7 ft through most of this upcoming work week. There is only a 10-20% chance for seas exceeding 7 feet at any given hour from Monday to Wednesday. -23/10 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for ORZ108>115-119>123. WA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for WAZ204>210. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Monday for PZZ271. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ272-273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

840 FXUS66 KMFR 220553 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1053 PM PDT Sun Jun 21 2026 ...Updated the Aviation and Marine Sections... .AVIATION...22/06Z TAFs...Onshore flow is producing LIFR at the coast from Cape Blanco northward this evening. Beginning around 09Z, LIFR is also expected along the south coast near Brookings. The coastal LIFR is expected to begin to erode after sunrise, with VFR expected from around 18Z late Monday morning through around 03Z Monday evening. Coastal LIFR is then expected to surge back to the coast for Monday night. Elsewhere, VFR will persist with mostly clear skies. && .MARINE...Updated 1000 PM PDT Sunday, June 21, 2026...North winds will continue to strengthen through Monday evening. The result will be strong northerly winds and very steep seas south of Cape Blanco while steep seas remain across most of the northern waters. There may be isolated areas of gale force gusts through Monday evening for areas south of Cape Blanco. A pattern of northerly winds is likely to continue through mid-week, with winds remaining at Small Craft Advisory strength south of Cape Blanco while fresh swell continues steep seas in the northern outer waters beyond 30 nm from shore. Conditions briefly improve on Thursday. A cold frontal system is likely to bring light rain and a modest increase in fresh west- northwest swell Thursday night into early Saturday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 450 PM PDT Sun Jun 21 2026/ SYNOPSIS...Warm daytime temperatures will create some elevated heat risk for valley locations Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures trend cooler mid week before a cold front pushes through around Thursday night and Friday morning. Light rain will likely fall across most of Oregon Friday. DISCUSSION... Some cumulus fields are building over portions of northern California and south central Oregon this afternoon. A 500 mb ridge over the eastern Pacific continues to build while troughing continues over portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies today. As a result, temperatures should remain right around seasonal normals for mid June. Fog and low stratus will spread back into the coast and coastal valleys later tonight as the marine layer remains compressed with some light onshore flow. Zonal flow aloft with a weak thermal trough west of the Cascades will develop by Monday afternoon. The thermal trough will increase temperatures 7 to 8 degrees warmer for highs with many locations hitting the upper 90`s for highs in south western Oregon. Temperatures have trended cooler compared to previous model runs a few days ago and the risk for heat illness around Douglas County is pretty small from Monday into Tuesday. Therefore, we cancelled the heat advisory for that area. However, small areas of elevated/moderate heat risk persist here in Jackson/Josephine and portions of northern California. Therefore, we continued the heat advisory for those locations. Medford`s normal high for this time of year is 83 and we`re forecasting 97 on Monday and 96 on Tuesday, so a solid 10 to 15 degrees above normal early next week. A short wave will push into the region by Tuesday afternoon, although temperatures only move a few degrees lower. In any case, it should be breezy Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday as a stronger pressure gradient sets up. It should be gusty over higher terrain Wednesday afternoon around Crater Lake and the Siskiyou Mountains. Stronger onshore flow sets up Wednesday night into Thursday as yet another short wave pushes into the Pacific Northwest. The big change will come by Friday morning as models are forecasting a plume of warm moist air to move in ahead of the cold front. This will likely bring rain to the area with a 50% chance of precipitation over locations west of the Cascades. Those probabilities decrease significantly farther to the south in California and east of the Cascades on Friday. With a cold front this strong, one also thinks about the potential for thunderstorms. However, the ECWMF ensemble members are not showing any CAPE with this frontal passage in the morning. Some members are bringing the instability in the afternoon east of the Cascades, so we`ll have to watch out for that in future model runs. In any case, the rain and cooler temperatures will be welcomed with respect to fire weather threats and fuel conditions over the next few weeks. -Smith && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for ORZ024- 026. CA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ080>082. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ356-370-376. && $$

287 FXUS66 KEKA 220703 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 1203 AM PDT Mon Jun 22 2026 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure builds in this week. Warmer and drier conditions will persist through Thursday. Coastal drizzle and breezier winds are possible Friday night into Saturday. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Warming trend for the interior will continue through this week. - Troughing to the north of the area on Tuesday and Wednesday could bring chances of interior thunderstorms. - Cooler temperatures, breezy winds, and a slight chance of rain or coastal drizzle are possible Friday into Saturday. && .DISCUSSION...High pressure continues over Northwest California today. Temperatures continue to rise early this week with triple digits possible for the warmest valleys by Monday. This warming trend is likely to continue through at least mid week. Troughing to the north of the area on Tuesday could bring additional chances of interior thunderstorms. Confidence is not high as instability and moisture currently look meager, but this will need to be watched. Otherwise, dry and warm interior conditions are likely for much of this coming week week. Ensembles are showing fairly high confidence in a upper-level trough moving north of the area late Friday into Saturday. NBM is showing low, but nonzero chances for wetting rain (over 0.1 inches) in Del Norte. The most likely scenario would be coastal drizzle. What is slightly more certain is enhanced westerly wind Friday night into Saturday. There are high chances of gusts over 30 mph in southern Mendocino and Lake Counties, with breezy winds likely across the area. Additionally, Cooler air and cloud cover with this trough will drop interior high temperatures into the 80s. JB && .AVIATION...With high pressure building back into Northwest California, shallow coastal stratus is expected along the coast with more clear conditions inland. IFR to LIFR ceiling conditions are expected for coastal terminals with potential for fog as well. Coastal stratus could linger into late morning. Stratus could travel partially up coastal river valleys; however, VFR conditions are more than likely anticipated for most interior terminals, such as KUKI. && .MARINE...Northerly winds gradually increase today with isolated gale force gusts likely in the lee of Cape Mendocino and Cape Blanco. Seas that are currently dominated by a diminishing mid period NW swell of around 5 to 7 ft will become more dominated by steep wind waves. Steep wind waves may propagate into the inner waters too, even as winds nearshore remain lighter. Winds diminish Monday into Tuesday, especially nearshore, but stronger winds return mid to late next week. JB && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for PZZ450. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for PZZ455. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for PZZ470. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

533 FXUS66 KMTR 220732 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1232 AM PDT Mon Jun 22 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1215 AM PDT Mon Jun 22 2026 - Hazardous beach conditions along the Pacific Coast through Wednesday - Minor HeatRisk with below to near normal temperatures Monday - Warming trend with pockets of moderate HeatRisk possible across the Santa Clara Valley and East Bay Interior Valleys Tuesday through Thursday, peaking Wednesday && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1215 AM PDT Mon Jun 22 2026 (Today through Tuesday) Stratus continues to build into the valleys this morning, with the marine layer hovering around 1200 to 1500 ft. Upper-level ridging from the Eastern Pacific will build overhead through the period, with the warming and drier trend continuing. Temperatures today will still be slightly below to near normal with highs in the 60s along the coast, and mid 70s to mid 80s for the interior valleys. Heights continue to build into Tuesday, bringing high temps around 2 to 4 degrees warmer than today, with a pocket of Moderate HeatRisk possible around San Jose. The marine layer, which is currently around 1200 to 1500 feet, will begin to compress through the period as ridging builds overhead. Expect stratus to retreat back to the coast by this afternoon. Slightly less stratus building inland tonight. The more compressed marine layer may allow patchy fog to develop along the coast and in wind-sheltered valleys this morning with a slightly better potential tonight/Tuesday morning. We continue to highlight a long-period southerly swell that will bring a risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents, with a Beach Hazards Statement out through Wednesday. If heading to the coast, stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean! For more information, see the BEACHES section. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1215 AM PDT Mon Jun 22 2026 (Tuesday night through next Sunday) While the warming trend is still expected to peak on Wednesday, ridging has been tempered slightly, and projected high temperatures are slightly lower than previously expected. Highs will still climb into the 60s to low 70s along the coast, with upper 70s to near 90 for interior locations. A few pockets of Moderate HeatRisk are still possible, with the best potential near San Jose again. Slightly cooler but still warm temperatures for Thursday with an upper-level trough approaching the West Coast. Highs are expected to be about 1 to 3 degrees cooler from their peak on Wednesday. The cooling trend will become more noted Friday into Saturday as upper-level troughing settles the western US. The marine layer will also deepen with the troughing, and drizzle will be possible, especially along the coast. Onshore winds will increase, peaking Friday into Saturday with a frontal passage, bringing gusts 30 to 40 mph across ridgelines and through gaps and passes. A warming trend is expected to favored to begin by late weekend, but overall confidence is low as there is quite a large spread in model guidance this far out in regards to the progression of the upper trough to the east and ridging trying to creep back in from the eastern Pacific. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 921 PM PDT Sun Jun 21 2026 It`s VFR except for stratus /MVFR-IFR/ along the coastline and locally inland. Onshore winds will continue to usher stratus /MVFR-IFR/ inland tonight and Monday morning. Stratus mixes out to the coastline with conditions improving to MVFR-VFR by late Monday morning and afternoon. Coastal stratus redevelops Monday night and Tuesday morning. Vicinity of SFO...Stratus /MVFR-IFR/ is forecast to return to the terminal this evening. Stratus /MVFR-IFR/ prevails tonight and Monday morning with mix out to VFR 19z Monday. Stratus /MVFR/ returns mid Monday evening. West wind near 10 knots tonight, increasing to 12 to 20 knots beginning 19z Monday afternoon, then easing to near 10 knots mid Monday evening. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Vicinity of SJC and OAK...For SJC Airport VFR for the evening, then stratus /MVFR-IFR/ overnight then mixes out to VFR 19z Monday. Northwest wind 10 knots tonight to Monday. For OAK Airport stratus /MVFR-IFR/ prevails tonight and Monday morning, mixing out to VFR 19z. West wind 5 to 15 knots. Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus /IFR/ prevails tonight and Monday morning. Conditions improving to MVFR-VFR late Monday morning and afternoon. Stratus /IFR/ returns Monday evening and night. Onshore winds 5 to 15 knots. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 839 PM PDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Tonight through early Monday morning north to northwest fresh to strong winds continue over the northern outer waters, resulting in hazardous conditions for small craft. For other inner and outer water, north to northwest winds will be light to moderate. Long period southwest swell will persist through the extended forecast. && .BEACHES... Updated at 1215 AM PDT Mon Jun 22 2026 Long period southerly swell at around 14 to 16 seconds will increase to 17 to 19 seconds by the middle of the week as energetic storms in the Southern Hemisphere continue to affect the California coast, especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. A Beach Hazards Statement for Pacific Coast beaches continues through Wednesday afternoon. Be sure to check beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean! && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday afternoon for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Slagle LONG TERM....Slagle AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...Malarkey Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

366 FXUS66 KOTX 220012 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 512 PM PDT Sun Jun 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm temperatures and dry weather continues. Tuesday and Wednesday will be our warmest days over the next week with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. - Locally breezy winds will persist through Monday down the Okanogan Valley and across Central WA. - Weather changes arrive late next week with cooler temperatures, breezy winds, and a chance of showers for next weekend. && .SYNOPSIS... A warm and dry pattern will last into mid-week as a ridge of high pressure shifts inland over the region. Locally breezy winds will persist into Monday across Central WA. The pattern shifts toward the end of the week and into next weekend as a weather system delivers cooler temperatures and a chance of showers. && .DISCUSSION... The rest of today into tonight: Breezy north-northwest winds are still in place this afternoon and should slowly weaken after sunset this evening. Dry air in place with many relative humidity observations of values in the teens across south- central Washington. Quite a bit of fair-weather terrain driven cumulus clouds bubbling up over the higher terrain is keeping skies mostly clear across the Inland Northwest this afternoon. Monday through Wednesday: The forecast has not changed much in the last 24-hours, maintaining the high pressure ridge that will shift over the region early this week and bring increasing temperatures and higher HeatRisk values as temperatures climb to the upper 80s and low to mid 90s for many locations across the Inland Northwest. By Wednesday into Thursday, after a longer period of hot and dry conditions, there is increasing confidence in unstable conditions favoring elevated fire weather conditions as the lapse rates become steep ahead of the next weather disturbance. Thursday through Sunday: The continued agreement in the ensemble suite of models remains above 80% for an upper level trough to drop down into the region late this week through next weekend. Furthermore, most of the ensembles agree on the trough dropping through the PacNW, though the uncertainty remains on the exact timing of arrival and placement of how far south it drops, which will result in uncertainty for the weather outcome for the Northwest. The airmass arriving will bring cooler temperatures and increased moisture, as well as instability which should result in showers and isolated thunderstorms. Instability parameters at this time are low and confined to the higher terrain areas from the Cascades through the northern Mountains, the northern Idaho Panhandle mountains, and the Camas Prairie. These areas carry a 10-20% probability of thunder Friday, Saturday and Sunday afternoon and evenings. As we move into the week ahead, we should get a better idea of timing, location, and what we can expect. /Dewey && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFs: Conditions at regional air fields will continue at VFR levels for the next 24 hours. Breezy north winds will persist down the Okanogan Valley with local gusts to 20-25 knots through Sunday evening. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Confidence remains high for VFR conditions at all terminals through the forecast period. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 53 84 52 85 55 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 53 82 53 85 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 49 81 50 84 52 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 56 89 56 91 59 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 48 85 48 87 52 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 50 80 52 83 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 51 80 51 83 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 60 89 56 91 57 95 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 62 89 63 90 65 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 56 88 57 90 60 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

479 FXUS66 KPDT 220429 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 929 PM PDT Sun Jun 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Dry and warm conditions will persist through Thursday *Heat Advisory Issued* 2. Elevated Fire Weather concerns return Wednesday and Thursday 3. Pattern shift Thursday will bring cooler temperatures and mountain rain && .DISCUSSION... Current satellite show mostly clear skies across the region today. Northwest flow has ushered in some slightly cooler air for today allowing for temperatures to be a bit cooler than past days. NBM has temperatures in the mid to upper 80s across much of the region with a few isolated locations in the Basin hitting 90 degrees with 70-90% NBM raw ensembles probabilities for the Basin, foothills and Gorge and 60-80% for central and north central OR. After today, models show the axis of the ridge to begin to move over the region bringing back the increased temperatures. NBM shows temperatures Monday to be 5 degrees warmer than Sunday with temperatures returning to the 90s in the Basin and upper 80s along the foothills and central OR with 80-90% probabilities. OVernight lows into Tuesday will also be elevated with areas in the gorge seeing lows in the upper 50s to low 60s with raw ensembles showing agreement of 80-90%. With no real overnight relief from the heat an Heat Advisory has been issued for the Gorge as daytime temperatures coupled with no recoveries overnight has the area reaching a major HeatRisk of 3 of 4. The Basin, foothills of the Blues and central OR are all HeatRisk of 2 of 4 while the remaining areas are 1 of 4. HeatRisk of 2 of 4 will remain for the aforementioned areas through Wednesday. With the continued dry and warm conditions over the past few weeks, the RHs have remained critical with little to very little overnight recoveries. With that said, the incoming system Wednesday and Thursday will cause elevated fire weather concerns due to critical RHs and winds. As of now the NBM shows RHs across some isolated pockets of RFW criteria Wednesday with RHs in the low to mid teens and sustained winds of 10-20 mph. Thursday however, NBM in-house calculations show there to be widespread RFW criteria overlap through the Kittitas/Yakima Valleys, the Columbia River Basin of OR and WA with some isolated pockets in north central OR as well. With RHs at 15% and winds at 20 mph, calculations using the two points of information, NBM WSUP Viewer is already showing 30-50% probabilities of areas reaching this criteria with some packets already showing 60-70%. Will continue to monitor as the day comes closer. Thursday morning, models show an upper level system moving into the region from the northwest. Clusters show some variance between the models with mostly amplitude and timing. Regardless, models show the system to bring with it mountain rain and cooler temperatures. Rain amounts will be low with only 25-30% of the NBM raw ensembles showing 0.01 inches of rain Thursday before becoming widespread and only 15-20% of the raw ensembles showing 0.01 inches across the region Friday. Thursday NBM raw ensembles show 80-90% probabilities of temperatures above 80 degrees decreasing to 60-80% probabilities of temperatures above 70 degrees Friday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Expect VFR condtions to continue under clear sky for this set of TAFs. West to northwest winds remain under 10 knots && .FIRE WEATHER... Continued dry and warm conditions will affect the region. Wednesday winds will begin to increase just enough for some pockets of critical fire weather. Thursday is the primary day of concerns as winds are expected to be sustained winds of 15-25 with RHs in the low to mid teens. In-house calculations show 30-50% probabilities over the vast majority of zones WA690 Kittitas/Yakima Valleys), WA691 and OR691 (Columbia Basin of WA & OR) meeting criteria. Will continue to monitor as the day come closer but can say with 50-70% confidence Wednesday and Thursday will be elevated fire days. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 52 88 53 90 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 58 89 58 92 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 57 92 56 94 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 57 90 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 55 91 56 93 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 54 87 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 46 88 51 89 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 48 85 50 89 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 46 89 49 93 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 59 93 63 95 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for WAZ024. OR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for ORZ041. && $$ DISCUSSION...90 AVIATION...71 FIRE WEATHER...90

692 FXUS65 KREV 212006 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 106 PM PDT Sun Jun 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Seasonal temperatures and dry conditions prevail across the area today. * Above average temperatures, and widespread moderate HeatRisk are expected Monday through Thursday for western NV, with typical afternoon breezes. * Upper trough potentially arrives by the end of the week, with an increase in winds, lower temperatures and low chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms near the OR border. && .DISCUSSION... Fair weather prevails today as a zonal flow pattern continues over the region. Only cumulus clouds are observed across the CWA in visible satellite imagery. Temperatures will be warmer than yesterday this afternoon, but will still be seasonal for the beginning of astronomical summer. Typical winds develop this afternoon generally from the west between 10-15 mph and gusting up to 25 mph. An upper level ridge centered over the International Border in the Desert Southwest will expand and stretch towards our forecast area over the next few days resulting in a gradual warm trend. Temperatures are expected to peak on Tuesday with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s for western NV and NE CA, and in the upper 70s and 80s for Sierra communities. The Chalfant Valley and portions of the NV Basin and Range may reach the century mark. Locations like Fallon, Hawthorne and Lovelock in the lowest valleys have a 40-60% chance of exceeding 99F. Towards the end of the week, the ridge is pushed south as an upper trough descends towards the PacNW. This pattern change brings an increase in winds, cooler temperatures (potentially back to seasonal), and low chances (10-20%) for showers and thunderstorms near the OR border. However, there is still uncertainty with the models in respect to the timing and placement of this system. So, we`ll have to wait and see how this system develops over the next few days. -HC && .AVIATION... VFR conditions continue at all terminals. Typical west winds return in the afternoon to early evening with sustained 10-15 kts and gusts 20-25 kts, then light and VRB overnight and in the morning. -HC && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$

740 FXUS66 KSTO 211901 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1201 PM PDT Sun Jun 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warming and drying trend today into next week with minor to moderate HeatRisk. - Breezy onshore winds each day providing relief for the Delta/Sacramento Area && .DISCUSSION... A warming and drying trend dominates the forecast heading into next week as ridging builds over the Pacific NW. Today should see highs in the upper 80s to 90s before Valley highs increase to the 90s to low 100s with Min RH`s in the upper teens to 20s outside the immediate Delta region early next week. Minor HeatRisk continues today before transitioning to patchy Moderate HeatRisk in the Valley early next week. Wednesday has seen conditions trend higher with almost widespread Moderate HeatRisk outside of the Delta/Southern Sacramento Valley. Please continue to practice heat safety, especially those sensitive to heat! Additionally, We will continue to monitor fire weather conditions and watch for any changes as we continue throughout the week. Currently, Wednesday is the driest day over the next several days with Min RHs getting into the low teens over the northern Sacramento Valley. Lastly, we will see a daily Delta Breeze with gusts up to 20-30 MPH each day, strongest in the afternoons. Elsewhere, we will see breezy winds at times in the afternoon and evenings before becoming light at night. Please continue to monitor the forecast and have multiple ways to receive notifications. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period. Winds 8 to 12 kts in the Valley into 06z Monday before becoming light and variable overnight outside of winds through the Delta to the Sacramento sites which will gusts up to 20-25 kts until 12z Monday. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

119 FXUS65 KMSO 211929 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 129 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Showers and isolated thunderstorms along the Continental Divide this afternoon. - Warming and drying trend this week, with a 30 to 60 percent probability of moderate or higher HeatRisk impacts. - Cooler and showery conditions expected this coming weekend, June 27-30. A low-pressure system over Alberta will trigger isolated thunderstorms and scattered showers along the Continental Divide today, primarily focusing around Glacier National Park. As this low-pressure center slowly moves eastward, another round of afternoon and evening thunderstorms is expected over these same areas on Monday. A ridge of high pressure will build over the region Tuesday through Thursday, bringing a distinct warming and drying trend to the Northern Rockies. Temperatures will climb well above seasonal averages by Thursday, reaching the upper 80s to low 90s across most valley locations. Low-elevation areas near Riggins, Idaho, are expected to hit triple digits. There is a 30 to 40 percent probability that moderate HeatRisk impacts will occur in western Montana, and a 60 to 70 percent probability for the valleys of north-central Idaho. Moderate HeatRisk impacts affect anyone sensitive to heat, especially those without adequate cooling or hydration. Long-range forecasts indicate a broad trough of low-pressure will move into the Pacific Northwest by this coming weekend, June 27th-30th. This system will bring significant cooling along with widespread rainfall. Current ensemble forecast guidance has afternoon temperatures topping out 10 to 15 degrees below normal on Saturday. && .AVIATION...A low-pressure system over Alberta will trigger isolated thunderstorms and scattered showers along the Continental Divide today, primarily focusing around Glacier National Park. There is a 30 to 40 percent probability that showers will develop far enough west to impact the KGPI terminal between 21/2000Z and 22/0200Z, bringing light rainfall, and a 10 to 15 percent probability of lightning. Otherwise, breezy afternoon winds with gusts up to 20 knots will develop across all of western Montana and north-central Idaho. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

734 FXUS65 KBOI 220601 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 1201 AM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry conditions through the middle of next week, with above normal temperatures Tuesday-Thursday. - Isolated showers and thunderstorms over southern Boise Mountains and the ID-NV border this evening. - Cooler temperatures and precipitation next weekend. && .SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday Night/... Issued 226 PM MDT SUN JUN 21 2026 A ridge of high pressure will build over the region today, with cumulus build ups and terrain induced afternoon showers and thunderstorms in central Idaho and near the Nevada border. Precipitation chances decrease after sunset, with a warming and drying trend expected for the rest of the short term period. Winds will increase each afternoon in the lower elevation valleys, with overnight gusty drainage winds in the Baker Valley and along the I-84 corridor near Ontario, OR. && .LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/... Issued 226 PM MDT SUN JUN 21 2026 Hot and dry conditions are expected through Thursday as the ridge of high pressure peaks midweek. Temperatures look to be slightly cooler than previously forecast, albeit still 5-10 degrees above normal, with highs generally in the low to mid 90s for most lower elevation valleys. Models remain keyed in on a closed low moving into the Pacific Northwest on Friday, with cooler temperatures and precipitation increasing through the weekend. The initial cold frontal passage on Friday afternoon will likely bring gusty winds and showers and thunderstorms over much of the area. Temperatures will be much cooler, with valley highs only reaching the upper 60s-low 70s. Overnight lows in mountain valleys could get close to freezing Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .AVIATION /06Z Monday through Tuesday/... Issued 1200 AM MDT MON JUN 22 2026 VFR. Surface winds: variable 10 kt overnight, then N-NW 5-15 kt Monday afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W 10-20 kt. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: variable less than 6 kt overnight. Transitioning back to NW 5-12 kt after Mon/15Z, with PM gusts around 20 kt. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....SH SHORT TERM...SA LONG TERM....SA

192 FXUS65 KLKN 211936 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1236 PM PDT Sun Jun 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Warming trend will create moderate HeatRisk this week * Hot, dry, windy fire weather conditions possible Friday and Saturday * System next weekend will bring unsettled weather and cooler temperatures to the region && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Saturday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Zonal flow over the western CONUS will continue into the early week with a ULT over west central Canada positioned to the north and a building HPC over northern Mexico to the south. Low level flow will gain a southerly component and remain WSW over the Great Basin through the week due to a short wave meandering off the CA coast. Temperatures each day will trend upward a few degrees each day reaching the mid to upper 90s across the area by Tuesday. This will create moderate Heat Risk for the region each afternoon through Thursday. While heat products are unlikely, those sensitive to hot temperatures should take precaution to avoid heat related illness. Some diurnal forcing Tuesday and Wednesday could tap into some instability over the area particularly in northeastern NV. Current guidance keeps PWat values (0.4-0.5 inches) a bit too low for nothing more than builds up Tuesday afternoon. Moisture availability is slightly better Wednesday (0.5-0.6 inches) over northeastern NV where a low possibility chance exists for isolated dry thunder. A strengthening LPC and well-amplified ULT off the western coast of Canada will meander southeast into the PNW by Friday. This will tighten the pressure gradient over the region, especially northern NV. Current guidance is growing the potential for hot, dry, windy fire weather concerns both Friday and Saturday afternoon. The system will drags its axis across the northern border Friday PM and Saturday increasing moisture in the area. Forcing seems a bit insufficient at this time for meaningful precipitation or thunderstorm development but future model runs should be monitored. The wave will drag a cold front through the region bringing cooler temperatures to the area by next weekend. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence exists in a warming trend and moderate HeatRisk for the area mid week. Growing confidence in a high dry windy setup for Friday and Saturday continues. Low confidence exists in the timing and placement of a system that will bring unsettled weather to the region next weekend. Sunday PM hourly grids were edited to introduce some Iso DryT along the northern border. This was in collaboration with BOI and PIH offices who were also increasing PoPs in that area. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are forecast and all terminals through Monday afternoon. No precipitation is anticipated at this time. Afternoon winds at KTPH and KELY will gust out of the south at 18-20KTs through early Sunday evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Quiet weather conditions return across the state with warming temperatures reaching into the mid to upper 90s by mid-week. Next round of isolated thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon mainly over east-central Nevada, but probabilities remain around ten to fifteen percent at this time. Winds will be occasionally breezy with no fire weather concerns through Thursday. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...99 FIRE WEATHER...97