769 FXUS66 KSEW 091949 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 1249 PM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Showers continue tonight into tomorrow as low pressure moves through the area. Winds and seas will slowly ease tonight into Saturday. Overnight lows over the weekend may be enough for localized frost and freeze potential. The next front to impact the area looks to arrive late Tuesday into Wednesday for more rain and breezy winds. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Rain has mostly ended across western Washington with the exception of a post-frontal convergence zone centered over Seattle and extending east into the Cascades. This feature will slowly shift south and eastward and weaken this evening as the winds slowly ease. Winds across the area remain in the 10-20 mph range with gusts between 20-35 mph. Winds are peaking now and will slowly ease this evening. High temperatures today in the upper 50s to low 60s will cool into the upper 30s to mid 40s. Another weak low pressure system will move across the area on Saturday, keeping chances for scattered showers in the forecast through tomorrow afternoon. High temperatures remain seasonably cool, into the mid to upper 50s. Skies look to clear out Saturday evening. As the low moves south, offshore flow will begin to pick up Saturday evening with breezy northeasterly winds from western Whatcom county and through the San Juans with gusts up to around 25 mph. Elsewhere, across southwestern Washington, clear skies and mostly light winds Saturday night will promote efficient cooling, with lows reaching from the mid 40s in the metro area to mid 30s in the sheltered valley locations. Our first frost advisory for the season has been issued for portions of the SW WA Cascades and the middle Chehalis river valley. The upper reaches near Olympia and Chehalis could potentially get fog, so there is greater uncertainty there. The winds would be the limiting factor for the foothills and valleys farther north into King and Snohomish counties, but trends will have to be monitored for expansion of the frost advisory. Sunday looks to be drier and sunnier as high pressure builds back in over the area. Breezy north/northeasterly winds look to continue with gusts up to 20 mph, especially over the waters. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Cool conditions continue Sunday night with the potential for more frost. 62 && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Ensembles continue to highlight drier but cooler conditions into Monday. Morning lows Monday will likely reflect the previous couple of nights, in the mid to upper 30s for most areas. Could see potentially another round of frost and freeze potential, particularly in the Cascade valley and southwest interior locations. Otherwise, Monday will be mostly dry with high temperatures in the low 60s. A weak system looks to cross over the area Tuesday into Wednesday for a round of light rain. Beyond the middle of the week, there is uncertainty in the pattern but generally, guidance indicates that a return to high pressure and mild conditions is favored. Mazurkiewicz && .AVIATION... Southwesterly flow aloft becoming northwesterly this afternoon as a frontal system leaves the area. A mixed bag of conditions early this afternoon as a convergence zone continues over Snohomish and King counties. Conditions maintaining MVFR/IFR this afternoon and in areas within the convergence zone will continue to see deteriorated conditions (likely PAE, SEA). Conditions will see improvement later this afternoon with ceilings lifting to VFR lasting into overnight. Southerly winds will slowly shift to the north for terminals KSEA northward, while areas south of KSEA will continue to see S/SW winds, remaining around 8 to 12 knots. MVFR likely to return Saturday morning for most areas. KSEA...MVFR conditions this afternoon with S/SW 9 to 14 knots. Will continue to see periodic gusts up to 20 knots this afternoon, with winds easing past 00z. Winds will turn N/NE at times throughout the afternoon due to a convergence zone near the terminal that will start to dissipate by this evening. Additionally, conditions will gradually return to VFR around 21z-00z and continue through the evening. MVFR conditions look to return Saturday morning 12z-17z along with southerly winds. Mazurkiewicz && .MARINE... Strong onshore flow continues this evening behind a frontal passage that occurred early this morning. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect most of the interior waters except Puget Sound, and the Central/Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca where Gale Warnings remain in effect. Winds through the interior waters are peaking now and will ease below thresholds this evening. Over the coastal waters, Small Craft Advisories continue through mid-day Saturday. Winds will slowly ease overnight into Saturday morning, but seas look to remain above 10 feet through mid-day Saturday. Seas will remain choppy and locally-wind driven with the dominant period being in the 8-10 second range. A weak low pressure system will move through on Saturday, behind which winds will turn offshore Saturday evening. Winds will briefly be enhanced slightly in the Northern Inland Waters near the San Juans and off the coast in the central and southern coastal waters zones, with potential for wind gusts to approach Small Craft criteria overnight into early Sunday morning. Winds ease next week as high pressure builds back in from well offshore. The next low pressure system look to move across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday, but there remains some uncertainty in timing as this is later than previously forecast. After Saturday, seas look to remain in the 5-8 ft range Sunday through the first part of next week. 62 && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Frost Advisory from midnight Saturday night to 8 AM PDT Sunday for Foothills and Valleys of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Thurston and Lewis Counties-Middle Chehalis River Valley. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Saturday for Grays Harbor Bar. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Admiralty Inlet-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm- Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 6 PM PDT Saturday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm. && $$

581 FXUS66 KPQR 092125 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 225 PM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026 .SYNOPSIS...A weak cold front will progress eastward over the Cascades this evening, bringing an end to any lingering rain showers for most locations. Chances for light showers increase slightly on Saturday, however most locations will stay dry through the day with noticeably cooler temperatures. Cool nights will bring chances for morning frost in rural valleys away from urban cores this weekend into early next week. Dry conditions are expected Sunday through at least Monday, with chances for light rain increasing slightly late Tuesday. Temperatures trend a bit warmer late in the week with dry weather as upper-level ridging amplifies over the region. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Sunday night...Radar, satellite, and surface weather observations from early Friday afternoon depicted a narrow band of rain occurring along a southwest-northeast oriented cold front draped over the northern Willamette Valley, Portland-Vancouver metro, Columbia River Gorge, and south WA/north OR Cascades. Behind this weak front, isolated light showers and sprinkles were being observed. As this front continues progressing eastwards over the Cascades this evening, rain will quickly come to an end aside from a few stray showers. Observed rain totals are generally topping out between a trace and 0.10 inches, except for slightly higher amounts at the coast and over higher terrain. While this isn`t very much rain, it at least breaks our impressive 13-day dry streak. Observed wind gusts with this frontal passage have generally peaked between 15-30 mph, resulting in little to no impacts. However, westerly winds in the central Columbia River Gorge and on exposed ridgetops adjacent to the Gorge are not expected to peak until later this evening immediately behind the frontal passage. These areas can expect max gusts between 25-45 mph, strongest on exposed ridgetops. Even then, wind impacts should be minor. Although rain will quickly end this evening in the wake of the cold front, chances for rain will increase again late tonight into Saturday. This is in response to a closed upper-level low that is set to move southward over the region on Saturday, bringing wrap-around moisture on the relatively cooler backside of the low over western WA/OR. Given the light and showery nature of precipitation on Saturday, rain totals will be even lighter than Friday for most locations (70-90% chance rain amounts will be less than 0.10"). In fact, many locations will see little to no rain at all on Saturday, especially downwind of higher terrain where rain-shadowing will be most pronounced. It is also worth noting that clearing skies over the Upper Hood River Valley tonight may support lows dipping into the 30s depending on how quickly westerly winds come to an end. If winds become calm early in the night, lows could easily drop to 33-36 degrees. If winds hang on until sunrise, lows would struggle to fall below 40 degrees. The current forecast suggests winds will become lighter by 4-5 AM, which would allow temperatures to quickly plummet thereafter until sunrise, with areas of frost likely forming shortly before sunrise in wind-sheltered areas where lows below 37 degrees are possible. Dee and Parkdale have the best chance for frost development by sunrise on Saturday (80-90% chance), and these areas have a Frost Advisory in effect to cover this threat. Odell may see patchy frost as well, however chances are relatively lower at around 35-45%. Chances for more widespread and impactful morning frost increase considerably Saturday night into Sunday morning given clear skies and calm winds will be in place through the night. There is high confidence for frost and morning lows between 33-36 degrees over the Upper Hood River Valley, Cascade foothills, north Oregon Coast Range valleys, Battle Ground/Brush Prairie area, and portions of the central/southern Willamette Valley to the east of the I-5 corridor near the foothills (e.g. Lebanon, Scio, Albany, Halsey, Brownsville, Sweet Home, Marcola, Mohawk, Jasper). Sub-freezing temperatures less than 32 degrees are likely in Dee and Parkdale (70-90% chance). Therefore, various Frost Advisories are currently in effect where confidence in frost formation is highest. Anyone growing outdoor plants that are susceptible to frost damage should cover plants or move plants indoors if possible. -23 && .LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday night...The long term forecast is highlighted by seasonable temperatures Monday through Wednesday with temperatures becoming warmer and above average late in the week as an upper-level ridge over the far northeast Pacific early in the week becomes more amplified and moves over the U.S. West Coast. This set-up will bring mainly dry conditions Monday through Thursday night, with one potential exception late Tuesday into Wednesday morning when chances for light rain increase to 10-30% as a weak cold front over the coastal waters attempts pushing inland. Even if this front is able to move inland, it would be decaying, which suggests rain amounts would likely be very light (a trace to 0.10 inches, if any at all). Currently around 50-70% of the total ensemble space from the 00Z/Oct. 9 iteration of the ENS/GEFS/GEPS shows no rain at all Tuesday into Wednesday, with rain most favored over southwest WA, coastal areas, and higher terrain. No impacts are expected with this front. For temperatures, expect chilly morning lows to continue Monday morning and Tuesday morning, especially in rural areas and sheltered valleys where lows in the mid 30s will support frost. Locations that currently have Frost Advisories in effect for Saturday night/Sunday morning are the areas with the highest chances for continued frosty mornings with lows below 37 degrees on Monday and Tuesday (40-65% chance, except 80-90% in the Upper Hood River Valley). Afternoon temperatures will be much more mild, with highs in the mid to upper 60s over the lowlands Monday through Wednesday, warming into the upper 60s to mid 70s on Thursday. -23 && .AVIATION...Through 00Z Sunday...A mix on conditions continue to affect the airspace as a frontal system moves through the area. While coastal terminals have improved to VFR as of 21Z Fri, a mix of conditions from VFR to IFR continue at inland terminals as rain reduces CIGs and VIS. Expect these deteriorated conditions to mix out by 22Z Fri, resulting in VFR conditions throughout the airspace, of which will continue through at least 08Z Sat. Around 08-12Z Sat, chances for low stratus/fog increase at a few terminals, notably at KONP, KHIO, and KEUG with chances of LIFR conditions around 10-20%. As for other terminals, there is a 15-25% chance of MVFR CIGs. Any deteriorated conditions that occur will likely improve back to VFR by 18-20Z Sat. Otherwise, west/northwesterly winds around 6-12 kt continue across the interior lowlands, then ease around 03Z Sat. Along the coast, 10-15 kt winds with gusts up to 21 kt will ease around 03-06Z Sat. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions through the period. West/northwesterly winds around 5-9 kt will ease after 03Z Fri. There is a 15-25% chance of MVFR CIGs between 12-19Z Sat. ~12 && .MARINE...A frontal system has moved through most of the waters today, with the remainder of the front moving through the waters south of Cape Foulweather as of 2 PM. Breezy northwesterly winds with gusts up to 25 kt continue tonight into Saturday morning over the waters north of Cape Falcon. With this frontal system bringing a northwesterly swell, seas will build to 9-12 ft at 9-10 seconds from north to south over most of the waters this evening through Saturday afternoon. As a result of seas building and becoming steep and choppy, a Hazardous Seas Warning remains in effect for the outer waters north of Cape Falcon until 5 AM Saturday. Additionally, Small Craft Advisories remain in effect over all of the waters (including the Columbia Bar) except for the inner waters south of Cape Foulweather and outer waters north of Cape Falcon until 2 PM Saturday due to steep and choppy seas of 8-10 ft at 9-10 seconds. By Sunday, winds weaken and veer out of the north/northeast while seas fall back to 6-8 ft through early next week. ~12/10 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Frost Advisory from midnight Saturday night to 9 AM PDT Sunday for ORZ104-106-113-117-121-123>125. Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM PDT Saturday for ORZ121. WA...Frost Advisory from midnight Saturday night to 9 AM PDT Sunday for WAZ205-208. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ210-251. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ252-272-273. Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ271. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 2 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ271. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

782 FXUS66 KMFR 092359 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 459 PM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026 ...Updated the Aviation Section... .AVIATION...10/00Z TAFs...West to northwest winds will remain gusty this evening, and strongest east of the Cascades at 20 to 35 knots. A cold front will continue across the area this evening, with patches of IFR ceilings and light rain near the coast from Cape Blanco northward. A few showers are also possible this evening into early Saturday morning in the remainder of southwest Oregon and in western Siskiyou County. This will include areas of higher terrain obscuration, but with valleys remaining VFR. Meantime, VFR is expected on the east side. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 320 PM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026/ KEY MESSAGES... * A cold front will bring gusty winds to the region this afternoon into tonight. * Temperatures trend cooler this weekend with frost in some valleys Saturday night and again Sunday night. * The chance of showers remains low later tonight as the front moves through. * The best chance of showers will be Saturday night in northern California as the low sits overhead. * Temperatures trend warmer next week as high pressure builds. DISCUSSION... We`re watching a cold front slowly move through Oregon this afternoon with a very defined cloud shield around central and northern Oregon. As of writing this AFD, North Bend is seeing some heavier showers with 2SM of visibility, so some areas will likely see showers around Coos and Douglas Counties. We`ll see temperatures trend lower compared to 24 hours ago, although they`re still rather warm for October around Medford and northern California. Temperatures should be about 10 degrees lower to the north where the cold front is about to pass through. There is the chance of some showers later tonight around the Siskiyou Mountains in Jackson County. The NBM has been relentless with putting a 20-30% chance of rain with a ~5% chance over the rest of the area. It seems the upslope flow up the Rogue Valley and perhaps some moisture could result in showers or drizzle later tonight. In any case, the 5-10% probability of rain seems more realistic through tonight. The other thing to note is the air will remain unstable in the boundary layer later tonight. We think it will be gusty across the region with wind gusts 20 to 25 mph more likely than not overnight over many locations. The NBM has this strange peak in the wind speeds during this time with sustained winds up to 18 knots in Medford around midnight! However, the ECMWF ensemble doesn`t really show that trend of increasing winds, so that is somewhat suspect. Lastly, the EFI does have values around 0.8 between 0Z Friday and 0Z Saturday, which would imply some stronger winds compared to the climatological October norm. Overall, no impacts anticipated as humidities are moving higher overnight, just pretty interesting to see that surge of winds in the forecast overnight. By Saturday night into Sunday, we`ll see the cooler air settle in with high temperatures in the lower 60`s with some 50`s scattered east of the Cascades. This is about a 25 to 30 degree drop compared to what we`ve been observing earlier this week. Given these colder temperatures and clearing skies, we decided to go with a frost advisory over Josephine and Jackson Counties. Locations east of the Cascades and within northern California have already seen frost a few times this year, so we kept them out of this frost advisory. We`ll have to consider a freeze warning down there as Mt Shasta City hasn`t frozen yet at the airport. One of the Co-op sites have reported a low of 30 earlier in September. However, this will be an even cooler airmass compared to September with slightly longer nights. These cold temperatures will continue into Sunday night with more frost and freezing conditions west of the Cascades. The air will likely be very dry aloft as a thermal trough begins to build over southern Oregon. The GFS model is suggesting some lighter easterly flow and some very dry air building off the Cascades. Temperatures should begin to trend warmer on Monday, although they don`t really spike higher as an upper level low remains overhead. The 5% chance of rain will be restricted to areas east of the Cascades. High pressure will likely build back over the area with highs gradually climbing through the week and peaking by Friday in the lower 80`s. Overall, no moderate or major weather impacts anticipated heading into next week. -Smith MARINE...Updated 230 PM PDT Friday, October 9, 2026...Gusty north winds and steep to very steep wind-driven seas continue across the area through this weekend. Winds will be strongest and seas will be highest south of Port Orford. Occasional gale force gusts are possible just offshore of Brookings. Winds and seas begin to subside Monday, but steep seas are likely to continue into Monday night. Further improvement is likely to follow. Guidance continues to depict the arrival of the first west-northwest long period swell of the season over the weekend, likely originating from the northwestern Pacific near Japan. While the high energy swell is not expected to exceed 6 feet, the arriving swell of 1 foot at 27 seconds on Saturday will build to a peak at around 6 feet at 20 to 22 seconds later Sunday. This could produce dangerous bar conditions, heavier than normal surf, and abnormal currents. Swell will then very slowly diminish Monday into Tuesday, continuing at 4 to 6 ft while period lowers to 14 seconds. -Spilde BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 200 PM PDT Friday, October 9, 2026...The first long period swell of the season begins to arrive Saturday night. Originating from a storm off the coast of Japan earlier this week, the west-northwests swell will arrive in the southern Oregon waters Saturday evening with a period over 25 seconds. Swell will then build through Sunday, peaking Sunday afternoon and evening at around 5 to 6 feet at 19 seconds. This very long period swell will result in a heightened chance for sneaker waves and run-ups of unusual size through Monday evening. While the threat for sneaker waves will be persistent throughout Sunday and Monday, the highest risk is expected during periods of incoming tides. With high tides along the southern Oregon coast expected roughly around Noon to 1 PM, and again around Midnight to 1 AM, the highest risk for sneaker waves will be during the morning and late evening hours...especially during Sunday morning. If visiting the coast Sunday or Monday, stay vigilant for incoming waves. Stay far away from the surf zone and never turn your back to the ocean. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Beach Hazards Statement from late Saturday night through Monday afternoon for ORZ021-022. Frost Advisory from 11 PM Saturday to 8 AM PDT Sunday for ORZ024- 026. CA...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM PDT this evening for CAZ285. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ356-376. && $$

202 FXUS66 KEKA 092146 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 246 PM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * A developing trough will bring much cooler conditions by Friday and the weekend. * Strong, gusty north wind close to shore and along ridges this weekend. * No wetting rain forecast for the next 10 days. && .SYNOPSIS...Strong north winds will impact the area through the weekend. Dramatically cooler temperatures arrive Saturday, with chances for frost or sub freezing temperatures for the interior through late next week. Chances for wetting rain of at least 0.1 inch remain near 0. && .DISCUSSION...High pressure is finally beginning to break down across the area, spelling the end of 6 days straight of much above normal temperatures and shallow marine fog along shore. A broad trough and associated surface cold front will further cool conditions by Saturday and into Sunday. High temperatures will drop back into the 70s. Despite the front, few models show any moisture with front. Some very light coastal drizzle is possible as the marine layer lifts, but chances of wetting rain are below 10%. SOme high resolution models show showers forming along the Sacramento Valley around Sunday, an offshoot of much broader convection in Southern California. That said, general lacking precipitable waters and little to no instability make virga and weak radar returns the most likely outcome. As the trough dips south, there is strong model agreement that there is potential for unusually (EFI values of 0.85) strong north winds Saturday and Sunday. Winds may be particularly enhanced by low pressure detaching from the trough and moving south, though actually instability with this low is tenuous at best. NBM shows most likely wind gusts along shore of 35 mph on Saturday. The strongest winds would be on coastal ridges and headlands during the day Saturday. There is a 80% chance of gusts over 45 mph over the King Range and in the coastal waters, though that chance is only 10 to 20% for more populated areas like Crescent City and Humboldt Bay. Winds will most likely keep marine air scattered out along the coast, especially as winds turns slightly easterly by Sunday morning and into early next week. As winds weaken, clear skies and dry air may allow for freezing conditions in the morning by Monday (20% chance for eastern interior valleys). Even the coast has good chances of lows int he low 40s, the coldest of the year so far. Ensembles remain dry throughout the extended forecast period (next 10-14 days), though much weaker high pressure will generally result in more seasonable temperatures. /JHW && .AVIATION...The lingering shallow stratus scattered out Friday with the approach of a trough and front. The front will disrupt the marine layer, decreasing the chances for LIFR developing Friday night. IFR to MVFR is more likely at this point earlier in the night. The front may actually effectively scatter out the stratus going into Saturday morning with increasing northerly flow. Inland areas can expect VFR conditions will gusty afternoon westerly to northerly winds. Winds could be erratic near terrain as well, possibly causing Low Level Turbulence near terminals. The there are some indications that the passing front could drive stratus eastward over the higher terrain and into UKI, potentially bringing a ceiling below 1700 ft AGL. Confidence is low at this time. DS/JJW && .MARINE...Strong northerly winds and gale conditions are ongoing over the waters. These winds will strengthen through Saturday, with gusts to 40 kts. Near Storm force gusts will develop south of Cape Mendocino. Steep and hazardous seas of 12 to 15 ft are developing as a result. In addition to very steep short period seas, a moderate, very long period westerly swell will impact the waters around Sunday while gale conditions remain in the outer waters and around Cape Mendocino. Winds will gradually subside early next week while the long period swell very slowly weakens. && .FIRE WEATHER...Prolonged much hotter and drier than normal conditions will finally begin to ease today. However due to the lagging nature of heavier fuels, ERC values will crest near the 90th percentile on Friday and Saturday. Such values will most likely be record breaking for October. At the same time, strong north winds gusting 30 to 40 mph will build near shore and along exposed ridges Saturday. Passing low pressure may aid in more moderate winds mixing into usually protected valleys Saturday afternoon. Winds will turn more easterly by early Sunday, helping to further dry conditions and produce poor RH recovery at high elevations. Although by Saturday, conditions will be much more seasonably cool and moist (highs in 70s and RH around 30 percent), the lack of any rain chances and recent drying will still support near record breaking Burning Index values for October around Saturday. All that said, there is potential for much above average fire activity through the weekend. /JHW && .BEACH HAZARDS...The first long period swell of the season arrives this weekend. The west-northwests swell will arrive in the Northern California waters Saturday evening with a period over 25 seconds. Swell will then build through Sunday, peaking Sunday afternoon and evening at around 5 feet at 19 seconds. This very long period swell will result in a heightened chance for sneaker waves and run-ups of unusual size through Monday evening. While the threat for sneaker waves will be persistent throughout Sunday and Monday, the highest risk is expected during periods of incoming tides. With high tides along the California coast at around 11am to 1pm Sunday and Monday along N CA coast. A possitive tidal anomaly is yieling tides around 1 foot higher than predicitons on top of higher than usual tides, adding to the threat. && .COASTAL FLOODING...A new moon lunar cycle is bringing higher than usual tides. A positive tidal anomaly of over 1 foot will yeild high tides that will near or reach advisory levels of 8.8 ft for Humboldt Bay Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. North Spit high tide estimates: Saturday: 8.5 ft at 12:03 pm Sunday : 8.8 ft at 12:32 pm Monday : 8.6 ft at 1:01 pm && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Beach Hazards Statement from late Saturday night through Monday afternoon for CAZ101-103-104-109. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until midnight PDT tonight for PZZ450. Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 9 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ450. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ455. Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ455. Hazardous Seas Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for PZZ470. Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ470. Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

175 FXUS66 KMTR 092344 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 444 PM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 927 PM PDT Thu Oct 8 2026 - Sharp cool-down this weekend and early next week - Coastal flooding during high tides through mid-week - Beach Hazards Saturday morning until Monday evening - Light rain possible north Central Coast early next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 110 PM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026 (This evening through Saturday night) As of 1 PM PDT, temperatures are running between 10-25 degrees cooler than this time yesterday with up to 30 degrees cooler in isolated locations. Needless to say, the cool down has arrived. Early morning stratus was slow to retreat to the coast, but with mostly sunny skies across the interior we are expected this afternoon to still be warm. An upper level cut-off low pressure is approximately 400 miles southwest of the Monterey Bay. This has allowed for a deepening marine layer that is forecast to deepen further tonight and into Saturday morning to around 2000 feet. As such, have added coastal drizzle into the forecast south of the Golden Gate where there is about a 20-60% probability (based off of the HREF) of seeing greater than 0.01" of precipitation from 8 PM this evening through 8 AM Saturday. This is a typical pattern for which we see widespread coastal drizzle! By late tonight and into Saturday morning, a mostly dry frontal passage (minus the drizzle) is forecast to move from north the south across the Bay Area and Central Coast. This will bring temperatures down to below seasonal averages Saturday, generally 5 to 15 degrees cooler. In wake of the frontal passage, winds will increase out of the northwest with afternoon and evening gusts between 35-45 mph in the favored gaps, passes, and wind-prone areas. Winds over the ocean will be even stronger with gale-force gusts likely! && .LONG TERM... Issued at 110 PM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026 (Sunday through next Thursday) Winds ease a bit on Sunday with an even colder air mass settling into the region from the north. Temperatures will struggle to warm into the 60s to lower 70s across much of the region. By Sunday night into Monday, there is a chance for rain showers over the north Central Coast as mid/upper level remnant moisture from Tropical Storm Rachel and an upper level cut-off low move across the region. Across the Bay Area and North Bay, there is a less than 10-15% chance of precipitation. This could change depending on the track of the cut- off low and remnant moisture. Cooler conditions persist into midweek before a gradual warming trend takes palace towards the latter half of the week as ridging builds in from the eastern Pacific. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 426 PM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026 I`m sorry about the Blue Angles today. There`s a better chance Saturday afternoon, but Sunday is the best bet. The marine layer has deepened to 1300` according to the 00Z sounding. This has allowed ceilings to improve to MVFR across the coastal terminals. On the other hand, the deeper marine layer will allow the stratus to push further inland tonight, but MVFR conditions will prevail with a deeper marine layer and a decent breeze to help keep things well mixed at the surface. As the clouds clear midday Saturday, strong onshore winds will develop at the exposed terminals. Vicinity of SFO...The city of San Francisco has been under a blanket of stratus all day, keeping the Blue Angles on hold. SFO on the other hand has been mostly clear. The SW winds are sheltering the terminal today. However as the winds gradually turn more westerly and the marine layer continues to deepen, the chance for ceilings overnight increases. GFSLAMP shows a 50% chance for MVFR ceilings between 07Z and 12Z, but I`m going to keep that in a TEMPO group for now until the walls start closing in. If any ceilings develop, they will very likely clear by 15Z as strong westerly winds develop. Gusts to 30 kts are possible in the afternoon and early evening. SFO Bridge Approach...Broadly similar to SFO, but the approach has a better chance to stay clear through the night. Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR ceilings are already here and will persist through the night. There is some indication that a period of IFR conditions are possible before midnight, but the winds seem too strong for that to happen so I`m ignoring that sign in the guidance. The winds won`t be as strong as the SF Bay Area terminals Saturday afternoon, but a moderate onshore breeze will still develop in the afternoon, particularly at SNS. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 426 PM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026 Strong northerly breezes will continue to spread into the northern waters with frequent gale force gusts expected by late tonight. These winds will continue to spread southward into Saturday, leading to widespread hazardous conditions through at least Sunday morning. Seas will build in response and become rough to very rough seas through Sunday before slowly subsiding to moderate late Monday into Tuesday. A long period southerly swell will collide with long period northwesterly swell on Sunday, creating a confused sea state. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 446 AM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026 Stronger onshore winds will lead to elevated fire weather conditions across the interior and higher terrain Friday. Cooling and moistening trend kicks off Friday with the help of a deeper marine layer and an increase in onshore flow. Moderate to excellent recovery is expected Friday night. Cooler, windier, and more humid conditions are expected over the weekend with light rain possible early next week. Sarment && .BEACHES... Issued at 446 AM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026 Hazardous beach conditions will be present at Pacific Coast beaches Saturday through Monday. Long period southerly swell from distant Tropical Storm Rachel will build in height through the weekend, bringing an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents. Long period westerly swell from a gale force low in the Central North Pacific will arrive Sunday, bringing breaking waves up to 16 feet. The large tidal swings will also result in coastal erosion as water and waves are brought farther up the beach than normal, especially during high tide. Remain off jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure as waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and strong rip currents and never turn your back on the ocean! Sarment && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ006-508-529- 530. Beach Hazards Statement from Saturday morning through Monday evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530. Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ506. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Sunday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to 9 AM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Saturday to 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....RGass AVIATION...Flynn MARINE...KR Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

645 FXUS66 KOTX 092358 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 458 PM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A strong cold front on Friday will bring gusty west winds with the potential for blowing dust across the Columbia Basin. Rapid drops to visibility possible with blowing dust possible through evening. - Weather remains active into the weekend with much cooler temperatures, gusty north to northeast winds, and chances for valley rain showers and light mountain snow. - Overnight lows reaching freezing or below in many areas. Hard freeze expected for mountain valleys in northeast Washington and the Idaho Panhandle by Monday morning. && .SYNOPSIS... A cold front pushing through the area through Friday evening, and an upper low on its heels, will gusty winds, a chance of rain and light mountain snow, as well as cooler temperatures into this weekend. Blowing dust is possible Friday and Sunday. The colder air this weekend and early next week will bring freezing low temperatures to many areas. Drier weather next week, with moderating temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... This evening through Sunday: Winds and cooling temperatures mark this period, with limited precipitation chances. A cold front continues to push east through the northern Rockies this evening. A deepening upper low drops in behind it tonight into Saturday; that low stretches as it shifts east, drawing a secondary backdoor cold front in from the northeast later Saturday into Sunday. This evening`s front will continue to provide light precipitation chances over ID and southeast WA, as well as near the Cascade crest. However these chances will be decreasing; by overnight the main potential lingers near the Cascade crest and the Camas Prairie, the Clearwaters and far southeast Shoshone county. Heading into Saturday precipitation chances are revitalized with the deepening upper low over the region. Chances start to re-emerge around the Cascades and far northeast WA and north ID in the morning, then chances start to expand from the Cascades through central and northeast WA and the ID Panhandle in the afternoon and evening. Overall the best chances are forecast around the axis of the trough, across the Cascades through the Okanogan Highlands with PoPs around 30-50%; PoPs elsewhere in the area outlined above are around 20%. I did go above the NBM in the eastern areas of the CWA, where the northeast quadrant of the low and instability could be enough to pop up a shower. Moisture is limited, so if something develops I don`t think it will be much. Overnight into Sunday morning the precipitation potential retreats to lower Chelan and Douglas county, as well as southeast WA through the central ID Panhandle and wanes. The lull in the winds tonight will allow for some fog risk over the northeast WA and north and central ID valleys overnight/early Saturday. * Snow levels and precipitation amounts: Snow levels this evening around 4.5-8kft, drop to 3.5-4.2kft by Saturday morning, moderating to 4.5 to 5kft Saturday afternoon before plunging to around 1.5-3.5kft by Sunday morning with the backdoor cold front coming in from the northeast, before moderating to 3.5-5kft Sunday afternoon. This will mean some mountain snow around the Cascades tonight, expanding into the northern WA and ID Saturday into Saturday night. Accumulations for the most part will be light, generally less than 1 inch; but some of the higher back-country mountains could see a bit more, up to 2 inches. Campers/hikers should be prepared for colder temperatures and that light snow potential. Heading into Saturday evening snow or a rain/snow mix could also be found in some of the sheltered northeast valleys and overnight toward the central Panhandle to the higher Palouse. By Sunday the main light snow potential lingers over far southeast Shoshone county. As for rain amounts, those look light. Probabilities for precipitation amounts >=0.10 inches is around 10-30% near the Cascade crest and central ID mountains tonight. The risk increases some around the Cascades and northern mountains Saturday afternoon and evening to around 20-50%. Elsewhere precipitation amounts are expected to be less than 0.05 inches, if anything measures at all. Some may not see any more than sprinkles. * Winds/Blowing Dust: The winds will breezy this afternoon and early evening over the open basin, out of the west/southwest at 15-25 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph before then starts to wane after 7-8 PM. A blowing dust advisory remains in place for most of the Columbia basin to WA/ID border through 7 PM; several webcams around the region have shown visibility reduced due to blowing dust around the Upper Columbia Basin and Palouse and West Plains. Later this evening speeds decline to around 5-10 mph, with higher gusts to 20 mph, and less in the sheltered northeast valley. However, winds gradually turn north around the Okanogan Valley to western Basin, with speeds increasing there from mid-morning to afternoon with gusts of 20-30 mph. Winds elsewhere Saturday will be lighter out of the southwest; however, by late afternoon and especially Saturday night the winds turn north to northeast through the region and speeds increase again, including this time much of north and central ID out through the Columbia Basin and continuing down the Okanogan Valley, with gusts of 20-40 mph possible. This continues through Sunday before decreasing later Sunday evening into Monday morning. Additional blowing dust is in the forecast for Sunday to Sunday evening, with the highest risk this time over the Upper Columbia Basin to Waterville Plateau/Moses Lake Area. We will keep an eye on this for impacts similar to today. Temperatures will be cooling over this period. Wind will impact how cool some of the overnight readings get and in anticipation of that I did go slightly milder than some of the NBM numbers for Saturday night/Sunday AM. Highs will be in the 50s to low 60s this weekend, with Sunday the coolest of days with some areas potentially not making it much in the the lower 50s. Lows tonight are forecast to be in the 30s to low 40s; largely 30s Saturday night (save for some lower 40s near the Cascades, deep basin and L-C Valley and some 20s the northeast mountain zones); then Sunday into Monday AM lighter winds will be more conducive to lows in the 20s and 30s over most of the area, coldest in the north and east valleys and outlying areas. A frost or freeze is possible then. Monday to Friday: For the new work week ensembles are in a bit better agreement with the overall pattern than this time yesterday, but confidence is still degraded a bit because I want to see more consistency from run-to-run. Right now this period is drier with weak high pressure, interrupted around Tuesday night and Wednesday with more clouds and limited mountain shower chances as a weak system passes through. Highs remain in the 50s to low 60s Monday, moderating into the 60s and eventually 60s to low 70s mid-week onward to Friday. Lows are forecast to be in the 20s and 30s Monday night/Tuesday AM, then largely 30s to low 40s and some pockets of upper 20s in the northeast valleys. /Solveig && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: Most of the region is the on the backside of the cold front with Southeast WA and Lower ID Panhandle being the exception. The front should exit the region by 02Z. Winds will continue to decrease through the evening and overnight period. Drier air and declining precip chances are leading to VFR conditions through the period. Saturday winds will be highest through the Okanogan Valley impacting OMK. North winds sustained in the teens with gusts near 30 kts expected in this area. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions at airport terminals. /JDC ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 37 56 35 52 32 57 / 0 20 20 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 37 55 35 51 31 55 / 20 20 20 10 0 0 Pullman 36 54 34 51 29 54 / 30 0 20 10 0 0 Lewiston 42 59 40 56 36 58 / 10 0 20 20 10 0 Colville 30 55 28 55 24 60 / 0 40 30 0 0 0 Sandpoint 33 53 32 48 29 55 / 20 20 20 0 0 0 Kellogg 35 52 32 46 28 53 / 60 10 20 20 10 0 Moses Lake 36 60 38 58 31 61 / 0 10 20 0 0 0 Wenatchee 43 59 44 58 40 62 / 0 20 50 0 0 0 Omak 37 59 38 59 33 61 / 0 20 40 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM PDT this evening for Moses Lake Area-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau. ID...None. && $$

225 FXUS66 KPDT 092211 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 311 PM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026 .Updated Aviation Discussion. .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy to windy westerly winds accompanied by patchy blowing dust this afternoon and evening. Wind Advisory in effect for Kittitas Valley. - Near- to sub-freezing morning temperatures Saturday across much of the region. Freeze Warnings in effect for Central Oregon and Wallowa Valley. - Widespread near- to sub-freezing morning temperatures continue early next week across the lower elevations. && .DISCUSSION... Satellite imagery shows notable troughing over the Pacific Northwest region this afternoon: an upper-level closed low is centered over eastern British Columbia; meanwhile, a second vorticity maximum is diving southward along the Alaska panhandle and northwest British Columbia. A cold front is draped across our forecast area, and widespread breezy to windy westerly winds are present at the surface. Most areas have observed sub- advisory winds in the 15-25 mph range with gusts of 30-40 mph. However, especially wind-prone locations across the Columbia Plateau will continue to see sustained winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 40-55 mph into this evening (80% confidence). Opted to issue a Wind Advisory for the Kittitas Valley, valid through 9 PM PDT this evening, where advisory-level winds have been most widespread. Patchy to localized areas of blowing dust have been observed across the Columbia Plateau from late this morning through early afternoon, and will likely continue into this evening (80% confidence). Have issued a Special Weather Statement for the threat of blowing dust, but areal coverage and intensity of visibility drops thus far has been too low to warrant a Blowing Dust Advisory. The cold frontal passage will be dry for most areas, with low- medium (20-50%) chances of a wetting rain (0.10") for the northern Blue Mountains and Oregon Cascades. Elsewhere, a wetting rain has already occurred this morning into early afternoon in the Washington Cascades. A colder, dry air mass (PWATs of 0.4" or less) is forecast in the wake of this afternoon`s cold frontal passage, which will lead to some potential for overnight freezing temperatures. Confidence in areas or widespread near- or sub-freezing temperatures is highest (70-90%) for Central Oregon and Wallowa Valley; Freeze Warnings are in effect for those zones. Elsewhere, confidence in sub-freezing temperatures is medium (40-70%) in the Grande Ronde Valley, just a bit too low to issue a warning. In the Columbia Basin and surrounding valleys, confidence in reaching freezing temperatures is low (5-30%), highest for the Kittitas and Yakima valleys where skies are expected to be mostly clear overnight. On the subject of cloud cover, lingering clouds and northwest winds are the two variables that have the potential to spoil the forecast overnight freeze in northeast Oregon. The aforementioned upper-level systems are expected (99% confidence) to track southward over the Pacific Northwest Saturday through Sunday, facilitating additional cold air advection into the region. While lingering cloud cover and breezy north to northeast winds associated with the low- pressure system remain sources of uncertainty, the region will see continued chances of near- or sub-freezing morning lows Sunday. Due to forecast lighter winds and mostly clear to clear skies, the best chance of widespread freezing morning lows for the lower elevations is Monday and Tuesday mornings, and additional Freeze Watches or Warnings may be issued in the coming days. Warmer, mostly dry conditions are then forecast by mid-week as ensemble guidance indicates an upper-level ridge will likely deflect any notable weather systems to the north (60-80% chance). && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... VFR conditions throughout all sites, which is highly likely (greater than 70%) to continue through the TAF period. Reduced visibility from patchy blowing dust is possible at some terminals, with the best chance being KALW. Breezy winds currently occurring throughout most sites, with gusts of around 20-35 knots. Winds are highly likely (greater than 70% chance) to weaken throughout the TAF period. There`s currently moderate confidence that winds will transition to typical patterns by 16z (30-60% chance), although some sites may transition as early as around 12z. Clouds are also very likely to weaken alongside winds (greater than 70% chance), with clouds limited to at or above 25 kft after 12z for most sites. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 35 58 33 56 / 20 0 0 10 ALW 39 58 36 57 / 30 0 0 10 PSC 38 63 37 61 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 36 61 39 60 / 0 0 20 0 HRI 38 61 36 60 / 10 0 0 0 ELN 32 54 32 55 / 0 20 30 0 RDM 27 54 24 51 / 0 0 0 20 LGD 31 54 32 51 / 30 0 0 10 GCD 32 55 28 51 / 20 0 0 0 DLS 42 62 40 64 / 0 0 10 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Wind Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for WAZ026. OR...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM PDT Saturday for ORZ050-511. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...21/75

995 FXUS65 KREV 091911 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1211 PM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Strong southwest winds will develop today and peak Saturday, leading to critical fire weather conditions and hazardous lake conditions. * A potent cold front will bring a drastic pattern change with significant cooling, widespread rain, and mountain snow showers Sunday into early next week. * Remnant moisture from Tropical Storm Rachel will enhance precipitation chances, especially south of I-80. && .DISCUSSION... Today will be the last day of well above average temperatures. Highs are expected to reach the mid-80s to low-90s in western Nevada and northeast California valleys, with eastern Sierra communities seeing mid-70s to near 80 degrees. As an upper level trough approaches, southwest winds will increase by early afternoon. Gusts of 25-35 mph are likely along the Sierra Front, northwest NV, and northeast CA. These winds, combined with very dry antecedent conditions and minimum relative humidity values of 12-18%, will lead to critical fire weather conditions. Red Flag Warnings are in effect for portions of northeast CA and northwest NV this afternoon and evening. The cold front will move through the area on Saturday, bringing widespread strong southwest winds. Gusts of 35-45 mph are likely across much of the region, with eastern Sierra ridgetops and western NV peaks experiencing gusts between 70-80 mph. These strong winds, coupled with continued dry conditions in many areas (though RH will begin to increase in NE CA/far NW NV), will maintain critical fire weather concerns, especially in the inner basin and range, Sierra Front, and Mono County. Hazardous boating conditions are expected on area lakes, including Lake Tahoe and Pyramid Lake, with Lake Wind Advisories in effect. Temperatures will begin to drop, with highs in the low-70s for western NV and low-60s for eastern Sierra. A significant cool down is expected behind the front. High temperatures will drop by as much as 20-25 degrees from Friday to Sunday, settling 10-15 degrees below average. Western NV valleys will see highs in the low 60s, while eastern Sierra communities will only reach the low 50s. The main upper low will dig into the Great Basin, drawing significant moisture northward from the remnants of Tropical Storm Rachel. This will lead to widespread precipitation chances (50-80%), primarily south of I-80. Snow levels are expected to range from 7500-8500`. Showers are likely to begin Sunday morning in the Sierra, spreading eastward into western NV through the day and night. The upper low will continue to influence the region on Monday, maintaining widespread precipitation chances (50-80%) across the forecast area, with the highest totals expected in the Sierra and western NV south of I-80. Snow levels will remain variable, generally in the 6500-8000` range, leading to accumulating snow in the higher elevations. Temperatures will remain well below average, with overnight lows dropping below freezing in many Sierra valleys (20s-30s) and a 50-60% chance of subfreezing temperatures in northeast CA and western NV valleys. By Tuesday, the upper low is forecast to slowly lift northeastward, with precipitation chances gradually decreasing. A gradual warming trend will begin as ridging starts to build in from the west. For Wednesday onward, we return to drier and warmer conditions. Temperatures will steadily climb back to near- average values by the end of the week. Overnight lows will still be chilly, especially in the Sierra, but the widespread precipitation threat will diminish significantly. -Justin && .AVIATION... VFR prevails today. SW-W winds increase this afternoon with gusts of 20-30 kt, producing mountain wave turbulence along and east of the Sierra. Surface winds ease this evening, but SW winds of 35-45 kt at FL100 favor LLWS overnight into Saturday morning. Looking ahead to Saturday, expect sfc winds to increase out of the SW with gusts up to 25-40 kt for Sierra and Sierra Front terminals. These winds will bring another round of LLWS and mountain wave turbulence, especially Saturday morning. -Justin && .FIRE WEATHER... The seasons first potent cold front will bring increasing southwest winds today, peaking Saturday as it moves through NE California and W.Nevada. Winds combined with low humidity and dry conditions may produce periods of critical fire weather conditions both days. TODAY: Afternoon gusts will reach 25-35 mph as minimum RH falls to 12-18%. The strongest winds will favor areas near the Oregon border, though elevated fire weather concerns may extend along the Sierra Front. Red Flag Warnings are in effect this afternoon and evening for portions of NE CA and NW NV, including fire weather zones 270, 278, and 458. SATURDAY: Winds peak Saturday afternoon and evening, with widespread gusts of 35-45 mph mainly south of I-80. Humidity will increase across NE California and far NW Nevada, while areas south of I-80 may see continued elevated concerns with a more marginal minimum RH of 15-20% on Saturday afternoon. Due to increasing confidence in the strong winds and low RH, we have upgraded our Fire Weather Watches to Red Flag Warnings for portions of W.Nevada including the Sierra Front and the E.Sierra from E.Alpine County into Mono County. SUNDAY ONWARD: Behind the front, highs will drop 20-25 degrees from Friday to Sunday, reaching the upper 50s/low 60s across W.Nevada and low 50s in E.Sierra communities. Wetting rain potential increases Sunday- Monday, mainly south of I-80, as remnant moisture from Tropical Storm Rachel moves northward. The moistures track and precipitation totals still show higher uncertainty, but the overall trend has been wetter. -McKellar/Justin && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening NVZ458. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM PDT Saturday NVZ420-421-423- 429. Lake Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 11 AM PDT Saturday NVZ002>004. Lake Wind Advisory from 9 PM to 11 PM PDT Saturday NVZ001>004. CA...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening CAZ270-278. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM PDT Saturday CAZ274. Lake Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 11 AM PDT Saturday CAZ072. Lake Wind Advisory from 9 PM to 11 PM PDT Saturday CAZ072-073. && $$

017 FXUS66 KSTO 091949 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1249 PM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Wind Advisory for the Delta and vicinity Valley locations in effect 11 PM tonight until 7 AM Saturday. - Pattern chance this weekend-early next week: cooler temperatures, chances for precipitation, isolated thunderstorms, and mountain snow. - Elevated Fire Weather conditions in the northern Sacramento Valley today, then again Sunday-Monday including the adjacent foothills - Potential for first measurable snow of the season in the Sierra Sunday PM - Monday, south of US 50 and above 7000 feet. && .DISCUSSION... ...Today-Saturday AM... Mostly sunny skies with a few high clouds being observed today across NorCal. Today is expected to be the last day of above- normal temperatures before we cool down this weekend. The upper level pattern changes tonight as a PacNW trough and weak closed low form offshore. The resulting pressure gradient will produce gusty west to southwest winds tonight through Saturday, strongest through the Delta and gaps in the Coast Range, but up into the Sacramento Valley as well. Forecast wind gusts around the Delta are up to 45 mph with sustained winds 20 to 30 mph. As a result a Wind Advisory has been issued for the Delta and immediate vicinity Valley locations and is in effect from 11 PM tonight until 7 AM Saturday morning. Gusts through the rest of the Valley will be closer to 25-35 mph. Strongest winds are expected late tonight-early morning hours. Gap flow winds in the Coast Range and Sierra crest will also experience gusts close to 40-45 mph. ...Saturday (rest of)-Monday... Gusty winds will continue through most of Saturday and we will see our first day of more fall-like high temperatures across interior NorCal. Highs are expected to be in the mid to upper 70s, low 80s in the northern San Joaquin Valley. A cold system dropping down from the PacNW will phase with a weak offshore low, bringing chances for the first measurable snowfall of the season in the Sierra Sunday PM-Monday. Snow levels are expected to remain above 7500 feet through Sunday, before lowering between 7000-7500 feet Sunday night into Monday. Forecast amounts are between 0.5-4 inches above 7000 feet, with 2-4 inches possible at the highest peaks. There is still a decent amount of uncertainty regarding the track of this system and forecast amounts, but confidence is high that we will see measurable snow from this event in the high Sierra. Additionally this system will bring wetting rain to the Sierra and foothills (but mainly the Sierra), chances for isolated thunderstorms Sunday and Monday, and continued gusty winds. Recent ensemble runs are continuing to keep the bulk of tropical moisture south of our warning area. Some moisture advection will nose into portions of the Sierra Nevada, mainly on Sunday and Monday. Right now, best chances of seeing 0.50" of rain remains above roughly 3000 feet and south of I-80. With the path of the trough and an eventual low pressure developing/closing off, isolated t-storms will be possible in the higher elevations Sunday and Monday as well. While the NBM keeps probabilities at or below 15%, location of the aforementioned low will provide the lift, cold air/instability aloft to produce t-storms if enough moisture advects. Winds will be onshore for most of the day on Saturday, before shifting out of the north Sunday-Monday. North winds are forecast to gust 30 to 40 mph, with the strongest winds along and west of the I-5 corridor. While overnight recoveries and daytime humidities will be increasing, the drying north winds will bring Elevated Fire Weather conditions to the northern Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills. This system is also expected to bring cold temperatures to the mountains, with overnight temperatures in the low 20s to mid 30s in the Sierra this weekend and into early next week. ...Tuesday-Thursday... By Tuesday, the aforementioned closed low begins to translate eastward, with continued below-normal temperatures on Tuesday. Ensembles depict offshore ridging developing by Wednesday and Thursday, suggesting high temperatures will climb back into the low to mid 80s by the middle to late next week. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions continue across interior NorCal next 24 hours. Surfaces winds for WNW at 5-10 kts for KSCK and KMOD, while SW winds at 5-15 kts for the reminder of the forecast terminals. Breezy conditions with gusts up to 20 mph are expected to developed after 09/20Z in KRDD. Winds will ease across the northern terminals this evening, while become breezy for the airports in the Sacramento Area after 10/05Z with gusts from 20-25 mph possible through Saturday. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 7 AM PDT Saturday for C. Solano County including Fairfield-SW Solano County including Vallejo. && $$

489 FXUS65 KMSO 091831 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1231 PM MDT Fri Oct 9 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Gusty west winds this afternoon will create critical fire weather conditions across southwest Montana, choppy conditions at area lakes, and hazardous crosswinds for high-profile vehicles on I-90 from Deer Lodge to Butte, and I-15 south of Butte. - Strong northeast winds will develop Saturday, causing choppy waves that could pose a danger to docks and boats on the southwestern portion of Flathead Lake. Isolated power outages are possible across northwest Montana through Sunday morning. - The first winter storm of the season is expected to bring wet, heavy snow, cold temperatures, and gusty northeast winds to the mountains and high valleys of west-central, southwest, and central Montana late Saturday through Monday morning. This heavy snow could damage trees and power lines, and will significantly impact backcountry recreation, hunters, and travel. It will be a breezy Friday across the Northern Rockies. Southwest winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph, bringing a 1- to 2-foot chop to Flathead Lake this afternoon. Stronger winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph are possible from Lemhi County to southwest Montana. In addition to dangerous crosswinds on north-south highways, the dry and windy conditions will create critical fire weather conditions across southwest Montana. On Saturday, as a low pressure system moves onshore over Washington and Oregon, northeast winds will increase across much of the region. At the same time, cold, below-freezing air will push south from Alberta, Canada, further increasing the northeast winds. Flathead Lake will again experience choppy conditions, but from the northeast by Saturday afternoon. Northeast winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph could pose a danger to docks and boats from Yellow Bay south and west toward the Narrows and Big Arm. Isolated higher gusts near 50 mph will be possible along Highway 35 on the east side of Flathead Lake. Moisture wrapping around the low pressure system over Oregon will move over the cold air pushing south across western Montana Saturday night. Snow levels will fall to the valley floors along and west of the Divide. The cold air will weaken as it reaches the Idaho/Montana border, so snow levels in central Idaho will remain higher, generally above 4000 feet. Temperatures falling into the 20s at MacDonald Pass, combined with gusty northeast winds and wet, heavy snow, will accumulate on warm ground and make travel conditions slick. This wet, heavy snow may also cause impacts to power lines and trees. Other locations, including Georgetown Lake, Butte, and Homestake Pass, will also experience winter-like conditions. These areas have the highest chances for 3 or more inches of snow. The heaviest rain and snow will fall in a narrow band currently forecast over the Anaconda/Pintler Range and spreading east over Homestake and MacDonald Passes. If this band shifts further north, areas around Seeley Lake and the Bob Marshall Wilderness could see higher impacts, which would also allow rain to change over to snow in places like Missoula. However, impacts will be minimal in the lower elevations, aside from cold temperatures. Lower elevations, including Butte and Anaconda, will also see accumulating snow, though to a lesser extent than the mountain passes. Accumulating snow is also possible for the mountains north and west of this region, including the Bitterroot and Sapphire Ranges and the Seeley-Swan region. On Sunday, moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Rachel (currently southwest of Baja California) is still on track to move northward toward Yellowstone and Wyoming. Forecast models are still divided on how the low pressure system will evolve later Sunday into Sunday night. This key feature will determine how far north and west the moisture will spread. We continue to be on the edge of it, with lingering snow possible Sunday into Sunday night. Snow and gusty east winds will also impact Highway 2 from Essex to Marias Pass and Glacier National Park, with winter weather impacts lingering through Monday morning. As for the highlights, the Winter Storm Watch for southwest Montana has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. A Winter Weather Advisory was added to encompass Highway 2 from Essex to Marias Pass and Glacier National Park. And lastly, a Wind Advisory has been issued for the Flathead Valley, including Flathead Lake for Saturday night. As the weather system pulls away, Monday may bring the first widespread hard freeze of the season. Western Montana may see lows in the upper teens to low 20s, while the lower elevations in north-central Idaho get close to freezing. If cloud cover and precipitation linger into Monday morning, the coldest morning for the week may be pushed back to Tuesday. && .AVIATION...A dry cold front will bring gusty west to southwest winds this afternoon. Terminals KGPI, KMSO, and KBTM may experience the strongest gusts between 25 and 35 knots, although high cloud cover may limit these gusts somewhat. Light showers gradually work north to south through the region tonight into Saturday with brief MVFR conditions possible at KMSO and KHRF along with mountain obscurations at times. Gusty northeast winds will develop on Saturday afternoon across northwest Montana and spread south and west on Saturday night with gusts of 15 to 25 kts at western Montana terminal sites, closer to 35 kts for KGPI. A winter storm will bring low ceilings, visibility and snow along the Divide and points west Saturday night through Sunday night. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to 6 AM MDT Monday for Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Potomac/Seeley Lake Region...West Glacier Region. Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Flathead/Mission Valleys. Wind Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to 6 AM MDT Sunday for Flathead/Mission Valleys. Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Saturday to 6 AM MDT Monday for Butte/Blackfoot Region. ID...None. && $$

328 FXUS65 KBOI 100009 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 609 PM MDT Fri Oct 9 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy conditions this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front, turning much cooler on Saturday. - Active pattern bringing cooler conditions and precipitation chances Saturday through Tuesday. Snow showers above 6000-8000 feet this weekend. - Significant rainfall possible in southcentral and southeast Idaho late Saturday through Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Sunday Night/... Issued 247 PM MDT FRI OCT 9 2026 Columbia and Alberta will move south into northern CA by Sunday with a long stream of moisture connected to the remnants of Rachel. Most of the moisture will stay east of our area though. The trough will bring a strong cold front to the area tonight with much cooler conditions on Saturday and Sunday. Precipitation over eastern OR will generally be limited with this system, with the best chance and heaviest precipitation coming over the Boise Mountains, and eastern Magic Valley through Sunday. Snow levels fall to 5000 to 6000 feet in eastern OR, and north of McCall ID, but precipitation will be limited. Snow levels in ID will be much higher in the warm sector of the system, with 7000 to 8000 feet over the central ID mountains. && .LONG TERM /Monday through Friday/... Issued 247 PM MDT FRI OCT 9 2026 conditions will persist into the start of the coming week. This will be thanks to the upper trough/low that brought our area the cooldown. While uncertainty remains on the placement of the low that closes off, ensemble guidance remains pretty locked in on troughing remaining over our area. The best chances for precipitation will come in southwest Idaho, where south/southwesterly flow aloft will continue to transport the remains of Tropical Storm Rachel. While the best remnant moisture will likely be to our south and east, The western Magic Valley has a 55-65% chance of receiving at least a tenth of an inch of additional rain fall from 6am MDT Monday through 6am Tuesday. Precipitation chances will remain elevated through Tuesday night (15-35%) across the western Magic Valley, Boise Mountains, and Southern Idaho Highlands as the low move off to the east. While there is some uncertainty in the exact track of the low as it moves off east, the aforementioned locations have the better odds of getting clipped by some of the wrap-around precipitation. Thanks to the southerly flow aloft, higher snow levels will limit any dusting of snow to above 7000 feet, with little accumulation anticipated. A warming and drying trend will set in beyond Tuesday, with the shortwave mentioned in previous discussions having trended north out of our area. In its wake, ridging will set in over the west coast mid-week, shifting to the Great Basin by the end of the week. Temperatures at the start of the coming week will be 5-10 degrees below normal, trending upwards to be leaning above normal by Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z Saturday through Sunday/... Issued 516 PM MDT FRI OCT 9 2026 Generally VFR with increasing clouds this evening. Smoke from prescribed burns resulting in localized visibility reductions, mainly near KMYL. Virga/isolated showers this eve and continuing through Sat/PM. Gusts up to 45 kt with showers this evening. Surface winds: SW-NW 5-15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in E-Oregon and higher terrain. Becoming W-NW 10-20 kt with gusts 20-35 kt behind a cold front this evening/overnight. Gusts tapering off early AM/Sat, then 20-25 kt returning Sat afternoon. Winds aloft at 10 kft MSL: SW 15-35 kt. KBOI...VFR with increasing high clouds this evening. Virga/isolated showers passing through the Treasure Valley this evening through Sat/AM, although a low chance (<10%) of rain at terminal. Surface winds: W-NW 5-15 kt, period of gusts to 20-25 kt overnight associated with a cold front. Gusts returning Sat afternoon. Weekend Outlook...Isolated rain showers, with high elevation snow (central ID), Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Then, broad area of precipitation expanding from ID-NV border through s-central and central Idaho Sunday. Precip may become heavy at times. Snow levels 6-8kft MSL across SW Idaho, 4-6kft for SE Oregon. Mountains obscured at times with MVFR/IFR conditions possible in heavier precip and in mtn snow. Surface winds: W-N 5-15 kt with gusts 20-30 kt Sat/Sun. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for IDZ423-426. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....SH SHORT TERM...KA LONG TERM....NF

306 FXUS65 KLKN 092204 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 304 PM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Strong winds will develop across central Nevada Saturday through Monday morning. * Marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall in Eastern Nevada Sunday into Monday. A flash flood watch has been issued for White Pine, northern Nye and portions of Elko counties for Sunday morning through Monday morning. * Most areas across northeast and central Nevada will see decent rainfall accumulations with some locations seeing a half to over an inch of rainfall through Monday. * Lingering showers and much cooler conditions Tuesday. * Dry Wednesday through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Thursday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Skies are partly to mostly sunny at this time across northern and central Nevada. Winds are breezy to locally windy as well. Look for the winds to subside this evening, though some higher elevation locations could see their winds remain up or increase during the overnight. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s. Current synoptic situation has three distinct low pressure systems across the western part of North America. These systems will all play a role in affecting the weather across the forecast area for the short term. Upper low number one is situated across southwestern Canada. Upper low two is just west of California. And upper low three is the remnants of Hurricane Rachel. Models are depicting upper low two and Rachel coalescing Saturday out in the eastern Pacific with upper low one diving to the south. For tomorrow, look for increasing clouds during the day along with higher relative humidity values. Winds will also be on the increase as well. A wind advisory has been issued for much of central and eastern Nevada with gusts of 50 mph expected. Southern Lander and Eureka counties are on the cusp of the strong winds as well but were considered borderline. Afternoon highs will be in the 70s. By Saturday night into Sunday, major changes are in store for the forecast as cooler trough energy (upper low one) will be dropping in from the Pacific Northwest states and will join with upper troughs two and three. Remnants from Rachel will drive precipitable water values up to around 0.80 to 0.90 inches, which has the potential to surpass the previously recorded daily maximum value of 0.74 inches for October 11. In addition, the Weather Prediction Center has placed a slight risk for excessive rainfall for east-central Nevada. Limited surface based CAPE of 100 J/kg will exist, along with marginal instability. Some isolated thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning and afternoon. All of these ingredients are depicting increasing potential for moderate to locally heavy rain across central and northeast Nevada. As a result, have issued a flash flood watch for Nye, White Pine and portions of Elko counties. Concern exists with regards to recently burned areas and these will need to be watched. There may need to be additional locations placed in the watch area based on future model runs. Overnight lows will be in the 50s. Winds will remain on the strong side so will be keeping the advisory going. Sunday night into Monday, the positively tilted upper trough will remain over Washington and Oregon Sunday night into Monday with rain continuing over much of northern and central Nevada. Overall rain amounts are expected to be quite robust with amounts of a half inch to an inch or more in spots. Highs Monday will be in the 60s with lows in the 40s. Remnant shower activity continues Tuesday with clearing conditions Wednesday through Friday with gradually warming temperatures. Highs will start out in the 60s Tuesday with warming conditions in the 70s by Friday. Lows will be in the 30s and 40s. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Changes were made in the short term through Sunday and Monday, increasing wind speeds and wind gusts, PoPs, and weather for the upcoming system. QPF has also come up as well. High forecast confidence regarding strong wind gusts in Central Nevada continues for Saturday and Sunday. High forecast confidence regarding significant rainfall in Eastern Nevada Sunday into Monday. High forecast confidence in a cooling trend Saturday through Monday. && .AVIATION...Conditions across all terminals will be VFR through the upcoming 24 hour period. Winds are expected to diminish this evening but will pick up tomorrow morning between 11Z-15Z. Wind speeds will be SW-W15-25G30-40KT over all terminals. BLDU is possible with the strong winds and could reduce VSBY to one mile or less in the dustier locales. && .FIRE WEATHER...Strong winds and low RH will create critical fire weather conditions for fire weather zones 437, 438, 469, and 470 this afternoon. Even stronger winds are expected Saturday for zones 424, 437, 438, 469, and 470. Strong winds will develop ahead of an upper level storm system as winds out of the west to SW at 10-20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph will be possible today. Saturday winds will increase a bit to 15-30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph possible. RH values today will be near 10% to 20% area wide, however moisture will be increasing Saturday as RH values increase to 20% to 35% or higher as the day progresses. Periods of moderate to heavy rain Sunday into early next week. && .HYDROLOGY...Deep moisture from decaying Hurricane Rachel is expected to move northward, crossing into portions of east-central and eastern Nevada late Saturday night through roughly Monday. This significant moisture will interact with upper level low pressure to bring widespread showers with isolated thunderstorms to the watch area. Moderate to locally heavy rain will cause excessive runoff and may result in rock, mud, and debris flows in and near former fire burned areas, steep terrain, and poorly drained urban areas. Some of the former fire locations include but are not limited to the former Ward Fire, Kearny Fire, Oxley Fire, Secret Pass Fire, Starr Valley Fire, Jones Fire, and Egberts Fire. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Red Flag Warning through 10 PM PDT this evening for fire zones 437, 438, 469, and 470. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM PDT to 11 PM PDT Saturday for fire zones 424, 437, 438, 469, and 470. Wind Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 5 AM PDT Monday for NVZ033-035-040-041. Flood Watch from Saturday evening through late Sunday night for NVZ033>035-039>041. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...86 FIRE WEATHER...86 HYDRO...86