017 FXUS66 KSEW 060924 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 224 AM PDT Wed May 6 2026 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level ridge will remain over western Washington through Thursday. Onshore flow will continue throughout the week and will push additional rounds of morning marine stratus into the area the next few days. A dissipating frontal system will then move into the region on Friday, bringing the next chance of shower activity mainly to the coast and mountains. High pressure then looks to rebuild into the region over the weekend and remain situated across the area into early next week. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Stratus continues to make its way inland early this morning, with latest satellite products showing it filling in across the southern and central Sound as of 08Z. Expect stratus to continue to expand across the interior through the morning hours and for it to remain over much of the Puget Sound area into the afternoon before scattering out between 21-00Z. Much like yesterday, temperatures could end up a bit cooler as a result of the lingering stratus, so expect highs to only top out in the mid 60s to low 70s across the interior today. Latest HREF probabilistic guidance only suggests about a 10-20 percent chance of temperatures exceeding 70 for the interior areas in and around the Seattle metro. The coast will stay cooler under the influence of the marine layer and looks to see afternoon temperatures top out in the upper 50s to low 60s. High pressure will remain in place over the area into Thursday. Expect another round of stratus to push into the interior on Thursday morning and for afternoon highs to generally be in the upper 60s to low 70s across the interior and upper 50s to low 60s for areas along the coast. A weak, dissipating frontal system will then approach the area on Friday as the ridge axis pushes inland. While the majority of the area looks to remain dry, this system will bring back a small chance for some shower activity mainly for areas along the coast and in the mountains. Any rain that does fall looks to remain light, with latest probabilities suggesting less than a 15 percent chance of more than a tenth of an inch of rain falling across the interior lowlands. The more notable impact from this system will be the increased cloudiness and slightly cooler temperatures, with most spots expected to only see highs reach the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Ensemble clusters remain in good agreement that high pressure will build back into the Pacific Northwest over the weekend and remain situated over the area into early next week. Meanwhile, deterministic guidance favors a weaker ridge, and brings some additional rounds of light precipitation to the northern tier of western Washington as systems pass to the north. Overall, expect mostly dry conditions to continue across the area and for temperatures to warm back up to above normal by early next week. More widespread Minor HeatRisk will return, with highs currently expected to be in the mid to upper 70s across the interior lowlands and mid to upper 60s along the coast. 14 && .AVIATION... High pressure continues over western Washington this morning with stratus starting to filter it`s way through the interior. Coastal locations already seeing MVFR early this morning, with stratus reaching the interior around 10z-12z. Latest guidance indicates mostly MVFR conditions are to be expected, but IFR cannot be ruled out at times (30%). Stratus will be slow to clear out, generally around 20-23z with VFR continuing for t KSEA...VFR early this morning will be replaced with MVFR around 09z-12z and lasting throughout the morning and early afternoon hours. There is a chance of IFR conditions this morning (20-30%) with the incoming stratus. Stratus will start to slowly dissipate around 21-23z with the return to VFR. S/SW winds 5 to 10 knots. he remainder of the evening. S/SW Winds 5 to 10 knots this afternoon, with KCLM seeing slightly stronger winds (gusts up to 20 kts possible). KSEA...VFR early this morning will be replaced with MVFR around 09z-12z and lasting throughout the morning and early afternoon hours. There is a chance of IFR conditions this morning (20-30%) with the incoming stratus. Stratus will start to slowly dissipate around 21-23z with the return to VFR. S/SW winds 5 to 10 knots. Mazurkiewicz && .MARINE... Surface high pressure will continue to remain offshore for the next couple of days with onshore flow continuing. Latest guidance has shown decreased probabilities of gale gusts over the Central and Eastern Strait of Juan De Fuca for this afternoon`s push down the Strait as a weak system passes by. Have replaced the Gale Watch with a Small Craft Advisory with more agreement that the wind strength will be less than originally anticipated. A gust or two up to gale strength cannot be ruled out though. Have also issued a Small Craft advisory for all of the coastal water zones as seas start to build towards 9 to 11 feet later this evening, lasting into Thursday - with some gusts up to 25 kts at times. Mazurkiewicz && .HYDROLOGY... The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the start of the next rainy season; it will only be updated during this time as needed. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Gale Watch from this afternoon through late tonight for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. && $$

889 FXUS66 KPQR 061135 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 435 AM PDT Wed May 6 2026 Updated aviation discussion. && .SYNOPSIS...Ridging aloft will maintain largely warm and dry conditions through the next week. The only exception will be a weak system arriving Friday into Saturday, which will bring briefly cooler temperatures but only minimal chances for even light rainfall. && .DISCUSSION...Now through Tuesday...A narrow upper-level ridge just off the West Coast will broaden through the workweek, driving generally persistent weather conditions across the region. Diurnally-varying marine cloud cover will reach inland overnight into the morning each day, yielding mist or drizzle in areas near the coast, before retreating back to the coast or offshore through the day. There remains uncertainty in the timing of daytime clearing which could greatly modulate high temperatures; the longer clouds persist through the morning, the cooler afternoon highs will be. Even in the reasonable coolest scenario, temperatures should reach near seasonal norms, and will more likely be at least a few degrees above normal each day. Diurnal west winds could also become breezy along the central Columbia River Gorge, with gusts to 25-30 mph in the afternoon and evening through the end of the workweek. Friday into Friday night, an upper-level shortwave trough will track over the top of the ridge. This feature has trended weaker in recent guidance, with impacts generally limited to enhanced cloud cover and temperatures a few degrees cooler. Rain chances are now minimal across the region, generally 5-15% along the coast and in coastal terrain from Tillamook northward, and in the Cascades north of US-26, peaking Friday afternoon and evening. To the south and at lower elevations inland, chances for even a hundredth of an inch of rain are now 5% or less. Resurgent upper-level ridging will see the warm and dry weather then continue this weekend into next week, including seasonably warm temperatures in the 60s along the coast and in higher terrain and 70s to around 80 degrees within inland valleys beneath clearing skies on Mother`s Day. -36 && .AVIATION...Latest satellite imagery depicts an increasing inland extent of marine stratus this morning. North of KSLE, stratus has already reached the Cascade crest, while to the south, the Willamette Valley continues to steadily fill with stratus. While coastal and Lower Columbia Valley terminals have maintained MVFR cigs around 1500 ft through much of the overnight period, cloud bases farther inland have stubbornly remained near 3500 ft. All guidance steadfastly supports MVFR cigs at all inland terminals by 12-15z Wed, but observational trends so far do not support this. Have therefore opted to maintain low-end VFR cigs at 3-4 kft at inland terminals, but MVFR cigs cannot be ruled out. With low confidence, the chances of MVFR at inland terminals is estimated to be 30-45% through 20-22z Wed when increased mixing should tend to lift cloud bases to 4-5 kft and yield decreasing sky cover. Calm to light winds out of the west to northwest this morning will build to around 5 kt by 20-21z Wed, then ease below 5 kt again late in the period, after 03-06z Thu. There is higher confidence that cigs will remain MVFR or lower along the coast, however as inland, guidance favors IFR cigs through this morning despite a lack of observational evidence. Have therefore also adjusted cigs higher in the forecast and maintained MVFR cigs of 1-2 kft throughout, with the chance of IFR cigs through 21-23z Wed estimated at 20-35%. Chances increase late in the period for IFR cigs, but confidence is low at this time. Northwest winds will build to 5-10 kt by 18-21z Wed, before easing to around 5 kt late in the period, after 03-06z Thu. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Low-end VFR cigs at 3-4 kft expected to continue through 20-22z Wed, although chances for MVFR cigs are conservatively estimated at 30-45%. By the early afternoon, increased mixing should act to lift cloud bases above 4 kft and to reduce cloud coverage, but the amount of clearing is uncertain. Diurnal northwest winds will increase to around 5 kt by 20-22z Wed, then ease below 5 kt again late in the period, after 06z Thu. -36 && .MARINE...Strengthening high pressure offshore will see northwest winds intensify and turn more northerly through today, while a broader onshore flow regime will favor continued marine overcast which thickens and lowers overnight before lifting and backing offshore each day through this week. These stronger winds by this afternoon along with a building northwest swell will push seas up to 7-9 ft by tonight, but a dominant swell period of 11-13 seconds should keep seas from becoming steep enough to present a hazard to small craft. Isolated gusts may exceed 20 kt this afternoon into this evening beyond 30 NM. As northerly flow weakens through Thursday and turns southerly on Friday as a weak system moves onshore, seas will ease back to 4-7 ft. Southerly gusts may briefly approach 20 kt on Friday afternoon before weakening again overnight. Chances for rain showers on Friday have fallen to 5-15%. High pressure will restrengthen offshore this weekend into early next week, supporting a reintensification of northerly winds. Chances for widespread gusts of 20-30 kt increases daily from Saturday through Tuesday, while seas continue at 4-8 ft. -36 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

895 FXUS66 KMFR 061126 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 426 AM PDT Wed May 6 2026 ...New Aviation Section... .AVIATION (12Z TAFs)... A persistent marine layer continues to impact KOTH with low clouds. This will be the case throughout this valid TAF cycle with persistent MVFR conditions. Inland, satellite imagery shows this layer has spilled into the Umpqua valley, and this will result in MVFR conditions this morning for KRBG before some relief this afternoon, but similar conditions expected again overnight. Otherwise, farther inland both KMFR and KLMT will experience VFR conditions throughout the valid TAF period. Lastly, typical diurnal breezes expected this afternoon and early evening. -Guerrero && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 239 AM PDT Wed May 6 2026/ DISCUSSION (Today through Tuesday)... Key Points: * Limited impacts the next several days - Most notable will be the well above normal temperatures - Some areas 10-15+ degree above normal * Drying trend starts today - No signal for precipitation in the forecast at this time Further Details: A ridge of high pressure will build in over the region today as a long wave trough consumes much of the central and eastern CONUS. Overall, this ridge will be the dominated upper level pattern for the region through much of the forecast with one caveat Friday. There will be a weak shortwave entering the PacNW on Friday, but this is very progressive in the eastward progression and will likely only result in cooler temperatures for our area. Friday is the overall "coolest" day in the forecast, but we are still forecasting above normal temperatures on this day. There is a signal in the extended forecast for this ridge to essentially remain in place through middle parts of May. This could result in continued above normal temperatures and dry conditions which may result in an accelerated period of drying for fuels. Through May, the Climate Prediction Center is indicating a strong signal for above normal temperatures, and a weak signal for below normal precipitation chances. In fact, there is a signal for this trend to continue May-June-July with El Nino chances likely (61% chance) to emerge through this period, and persist through at least the end of 2026. -Guerrero AVIATION (06Z TAFs)... A fairly deep marine layer exists along the coast this evening with MVFR ceilings around 1500 ft. These ceilings briefly broke at North Bend this afternoon into this evening, but will return overnight and could lower to IFR at times as well (in the 500-1000 ft range). Ceilings are expected to fill into the Umpqua Basin again later tonight, so MVFR is likely to return to Roseburg and last through most of the morning before breaking to VFR after 18Z. Medford should remain VFR, though patches of stratus could spill through gaps in the Umpqua Divide to near Grants Pass. Stratus impacting the northern portions of the Sacramento Valley (near Redding) has expanded into areas near and just south/southeast of Mt. Shasta (far SE Siskiyou/SW Modoc counties) and will persist into mid-morning before breaking to VFR again. Elsewhere, conditions will remain VFR through Wednesday evening. -Spilde/DW MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Wednesday, May 6, 2026...An extended period of relatively calm conditions will continue through Friday, with west-northwest swell dominated seas likely remaining below 8 ft. Wind speeds briefly increase Thursday morning south of Cape Blanco, but remain below advisory conditions and quickly diminish in the afternoon. A thermal trough will develop Saturday morning and strengthen through the weekend, resulting in gusty north winds and steep seas through early next week. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None. && $$

167 FXUS66 KEKA 060717 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 1217 AM PDT Wed May 6 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Weak high pressure building into the area will gradually warm inland temperatures through Thursday. Closer to the coast widespread low clouds will linger keeping temperatures cooler. Friday will see slightly cooler temperatures and more clouds. For the weekend and into early next highs are expected to warm each day with many inland areas seeing the 90s by Monday. && KEY MESSAGES: Near to above normal inland temperatures Wednesday and Thursday with some cooling Friday. Breezy north winds this weekend with well above normal temperatures inland. Minor to moderate heat risk is possible on Monday in Mendocino, Lake and Trinity counties. .DISCUSSION...High pressure is building over the area in the wake of a departing low. This will bring clearing skies and warming temperatures for some areas of Trinity county. The coastal counties and Lake county are seeing widespread stratus this morning. Some portions of Trinity county are also seeing stratus. This will likely slow the warming trend in these areas on Wednesday. Clouds are expected to clear back closer to the coast by the afternoon, but the coast is expected to remain fairly cloudy. Wednesday night into Thursday the area is expected to see less stratus, but it is still expected to make it quite a ways inland. This will again likely keep temperatures cooler than expected in these areas. Thursday night into Friday a weak front will bring some mid level clouds and cooler temperatures to Trinity county. This may bring some drizzle to the coast, but at this point no real rain is expected. Friday night into Saturday northerly winds are expected to increase. Offshore flow is expected overnight with breezy afternoon winds. Inland areas are expected to warm again on Saturday and with mostly clear skies areas closer to the coast will likely warm up too. The breezy northerly winds typically keep the immediate coast in the low 60s. The warming trend is expected to continue into early next week. At this point the first day expected to see moderate heat risk in the far inland areas is Monday. However, there is some potential an upper low could develop off the coast weaken the wind flow allowing clouds and marine air creep into the coastal counties limiting the heating potential. MKK && .AVIATION...Widespread stratus remains in place across the coastal counties as well as Lake county. CIGS are generally MVFR in this stratus in the valleys. Towards sunrise as the high pressure builds in this is expected to slowly flatten the stratus and lower the CIGS. Some areas may drop into the IFR category. Through the day Wednesday CIGS are expected to lift and clear in the inland areas. This coast is expected to remain cloudy, but CIGS may lift to VFR or near VFR. Northerly winds are expected to increase slightly in the afternoon to around 10 kt. MKK && .MARINE...The winds remain fairly light out of the north this morning, around 5 kt in the north to 10 kt in the south. Later today and this evening winds are expected to increase slightly to around 10 to 15 kt. This will develop some 2 to 4 foot wind driven waves. In addition there is expected to be a couple northwest swells. It looks like one will be around 12 to 14 seconds and one around 8 to 10 seconds. These both look to be around 3 feet. Winds are expected to remain around 10 to 15 kt through Thursday evening. Thursday night into Friday a weak front approaching the area is expected to bring lighter winds north of Cape Mendocino. Only around 5 to 10 kt and these may briefly become west or southwest. Farther south the winds are expected to increase to around 15 to 20 kt. Behind the front on the weekend winds are expected to increase to near gale or gale force as high pressure builds in again. There is expected to be a fairly small northwest swell through much of the period. Friday night and Saturday behind the weak front the swell may increase slightly with periods jumping up to around 15 seconds, but heights remain around 3 or 4 feet. MKK && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... None. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

425 FXUS66 KMTR 061147 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 447 AM PDT Wed May 6 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1215 AM PDT Wed May 6 2026 - Warmer and drier conditions mid to late week - Well above normal for May with warm to hot temperatures this weekend and early next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1235 AM PDT Wed May 6 2026 (Today and tonight) Cool temperatures and cloud cover left over from the recent 500 mb low continue to linger. Tuesday evening`s Oakland upper air sounding showed ~ 25th percentile temperatures at 925 mb (2500 feet) and 850 mb (5000 feet) for early May, just below a newly developed temperature inversion aloft. The temperature inversion is an early sign of newly warming air aloft with 500 mb high pressure beginning to advance in across the forecast area. With clearing by late morning and afternoon, daytime highs will climb to the 60s coastside and bayside to the 70s to 80 well inland. In areas that received recent rainfall, lingering surface to lower level water vapor availability combining with peak daytime surface heating may cause mainly small cumulus clouds to develop today as well. For tonight, post sunset cooling will diminish any small cumulus clouds while lower level temperatures steadily warm, strengthening the lower level temperature inversion. Coastal stratus clouds return tonight, capped underneath the lower level temperature inversion. The SFO-SAC pressure gradient remains onshore through today, near 3 mb by late afternoon then decreases to 1 mb by early Thursday. Onshore winds will usher stratus inland tonight. Low temperatures tonight in the 50s and 40s. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1235 AM PDT Wed May 6 2026 (Thursday through Tuesday) A 500 mb high pressure ridge moves in from the west and northwest during this time, the ridge flanked on each side by strengthening troughs assisting in dynamic strengthening (meridional north-south wave strengthening). Lower to mid level thermal ridging will move in across the forecast area as well. 500 mb heights will increase to above normal Thursday through Tuesday, peaking over the weekend to early next week. By Sunday, Monday and Tuesday recent ECMWF forecasts show 850 mb temperatures warming up to 20 to 23 Celsius which is right around the max moving average on Oakland soundings for the time of year. This means surface temperatures will become warm to hot, daytime highs in the 80s to 90s away from any marine influence. Early next week a few spots in the southern interior may also reach 100F. We may also get close to a few record highs at the long term stations. If planning to be outdoors please keep in mind that moderate HeatRisk will be developing for inland areas Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. There have been recent positive anomalies observed in the subtropical jet stream winds (stronger than usual) entering the southwestern states. Global models, particularly the GFS shows strength maintaining in both the polar jet stream and subtropical jet stream winds crossing the Pacific during this forecast period. The larger scale pattern may nudge eastward the aforementioned high pressure system a little quicker to our forecast area. This means that late week including Saturday for example may warm up a little faster than currently forecast. Something to keep in mind. Please stay tuned to the latest updates. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 437 AM PDT Wed May 6 2026 MVFR to VFR stratus is blanketing most terminals this morning. The forecast trend is fairly straightforward with clearing in the late morning or early afternoon, moderate onshore winds in the afternoon and early evening, and the return of stratus overnight. The marine layer will be fully reformed by Thursday morning, with lower ceilings expected. Vicinity of SFO...MVFR stratus is filling in the Bay and is now impacting the big 3 terminals. The cloud layer is somewhat patchy over SFO and the southern portion of the SF Bay, and the ceilings may go scattered at times this morning. More pronounced clearing is expected around 18-20Z with strong onshore winds developing this afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...The stratus deck is more patchy across the southern terminals, and MRY has somehow dodged a ceiling thus far. That being said, it could reach the terminal at any point over the next several hours. Expect clearing in the afternoon before stratus returns overnight with lower cloud bases expected. && .MARINE... (Today through Monday) Issued at 437 AM PDT Wed May 6 2026 High pressure over the eastern Pacific will maintain gentle to moderate northerly breezes over the coastal waters today. Fresh to strong northerly breezes develop Thursday afternoon and continue through the weekend, building rough seas across exposed waters. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Canepa LONG TERM....Canepa AVIATION...Flynn MARINE...Flynn Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

823 FXUS66 KOTX 061118 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 418 AM PDT Wed May 6 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated thunderstorms in far North Idaho late Wednesday afternoon and evening. - Gusty winds Wednesday afternoon and evening in Central Washington. - Widespread minor HeatRisk Wednesday, Thursday, and again early next week. This level of heat primarily affects those who are sensitive to heat. - Dangerously cold water temperatures pose a high risk for cold water shock and hypothermia for anyone who unexpectedly falls in. Wear a life jacket if recreating on or near the water. && .SYNOPSIS... A prolonged period of above normal temperatures will continue into the middle of May. Conditions will be dry outside small chances for mountain showers and thunderstorms in the North Idaho Panhandle Wednesday. Winds will be gusty Wednesday and Friday, especially in Central Washington. && .DISCUSSION... Wednesday through Tuesday: The message for the next week is to be prepared for above normal temperatures and generally dry conditions. An upper-level ridge will be dominant over the Northwest through the next seven days. Weak shortwaves will ripple over the the top of the ridge at times, each dragging a mostly dry cold front through. Each front will increase onshore flow, pile marine clouds west of the Cascade Crest and result in breezy to locally windy conditions. The two main cold fronts will be Wednesday and Friday. Each of these days will have winds peak in the late afternoon and early evening resulting in elevated fire weather conditions. As for precipitation, there isn`t much to discuss. The main precipitation threat will come with Wednesday`s cold front with a chance for showers and thunderstorms focused over far North Idaho; all other days are expected to be dry at this time. Wednesday Showers and thunderstorms: HREF mean CAPE for North Idaho and areas of Eastern WA vary from 200-450 J/kg. Closer examination of soundings suggest a stable layer will prevent convection from developing over much of Eastern WA and the lower Idaho Panhandle. The target area for a few cells will be extreme NE WA and far North Idaho largely north of a line from Sandpoint to Colville. Percentages for showers or storms in NE WA are 10-15% and increase 15-30% around Bonners Ferry, Porthill, and Moyie Springs. The strength of the showers and outlook for lightning will depend on how quickly a surge of higher dewpoint air can punch northward into this area, originating from the Columbia Gorge . If dewpoints can increase into the mid to upper 40s prior to sunset, then there could be a few cells capable of a 0.25"or more rainfall and few storms that may need to be closely monitored. Any storms that do develop will pose a threat for downpours of rain and small hail, wind gusts of 30-35 mph, and lightning. If you have outdoor plans in North Idaho Wednesday between 4-7PM, keep an eye to the sky. Wednesday and Friday Winds: As mentioned above, there will be two main bouts of gusty winds. For each Wednesday and Friday, the strongest winds will impact the East Slopes and Western Columbia Basin. There is a 20-40% chance for wind gusts 30 mph or stronger Wednesday which then increases to 30-60% for Friday. The peak of the winds both days will be late afternoon and early evening. Locations like Vantage, Waterville, Entiat, and Ephrata will carry the highest probabilities (10-20%) for brief wind gusts of 40 mph. Wind gusts in the eastern Columbia Basin, Palouse, and Spokane Area will be in the 20-30 mph range with locally stronger speeds in the foothills of the Blue Mountains around Pomeroy and Hwy 12. With the mild temperatures in place through the week (70-80s), minor heatrisk will be present which primarily effects those who are extremely sensitive to heat and not acclimated to the warmer temperatures this early in the season. Folks heading to rivers and lakes should be cautious that water temperatures remain cold with elevated risks for hypothermia without proper gear. /sb && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail under mostly clear skies through the forecast period. Mid and high clouds will increase in the afternoon Wednesday with the arrival of a cold front. Isolated convection will impact far north Idaho around Bonners Ferry, ID with a 15% chance to expand as far south as Sandpoint, ID and 10% chance to develop over extreme Northeastern WA around Ione, WA. Lightning, downpours, and gusty winds will be possible with this activity between 22-03z. Winds will become gusty after 20z over the Palouse, Spokane Area, Columbia Basin, and East Slopes of the Cascades. Wind gusts will remain below 30 mph for Spokane, Pullman, and Lewiston and 30-35 mph around Waterville, Wenatchee, Ephrata, Moses Lake, and Chelan airports between 23-05z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Moderate to high confidence for convection to remain in far North Idaho, lower confidence for cells to develop in extreme NE WA. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail. JW ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 80 52 78 52 74 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 77 50 74 50 70 46 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 Pullman 75 51 71 46 69 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 81 54 76 49 76 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 82 48 83 50 77 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 75 48 74 48 69 45 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 76 48 72 47 70 44 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 86 52 81 51 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 85 55 82 55 76 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 88 52 85 55 81 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

798 FXUS66 KPDT 061101 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 401 AM PDT Wed May 6 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above-normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions through this week into next week - Wind Advisory in effect this afternoon and evening - Periods of low relative humidity (10-20 percent) coupled with breezy to windy westerly winds Thursday and Friday through the Cascade gaps and across the Columbia Basin and Blue Mountain foothills && .DISCUSSION... Satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies early this morning under an upper-level ridge of high pressure. Water vapor imagery reveals the ridge of high pressure extends from offshore northeast through the Canadian Rockies. Later today, a weak shortwave will ride over the top of the ridge across British Columbia and the northern Rockies. Coupled with a cross-Cascade thermal gradient (warmer on the east side, cooler on the west side) due to an established marine layer (evident in Nighttime Microphysics RGB imagery as well as 00Z observed soundings at SLE and UIL) on the west side of the Cascades, this will induce a decently strong cross-Cascade pressure gradient (8-12 mb between PDX and GEG per latest guidance) and result in breezy to locally windy westerly winds through the Cascade gaps and across the Columbia Basin and Blue Mountain foothills. NBM probabilities of exceedance show a medium-high (50-95 percent) chance of reaching advisory-level wind gusts for climatologically wind-prone locations within the aforementioned region, with significantly lower chances elsewhere. Confidence was high enough (70-90 percent) that periods of advisory-level sustained winds and/or wind gusts will be met today, so went ahead and issued a Wind Advisory for multiple zones for this afternoon and evening. Another round of breezy conditions is forecast Thursday as the shortwave exits to the east over the Rockies and upper-level ridging rebuilds over the Pacific Northwest. That said, a drier air mass is forecast to be present Thursday in the wake of the shortwave, and locally low relative humidity (10-20 percent) is forecast. Fuels are not yet ready for Red Flag Warnings, so no fire weather headlines have been issued. By Friday, ensemble mean 500-hPa heights and vorticity show another shortwave from the Pacific entering the Pacific Northwest late morning through afternoon. Confidence is very high (90 percent) in another round of widespread breezy to windy westerly winds through the Cascade gaps and across the Columbia Basin and Blue Mountain foothills. NBM probabilities of reaching or exceeding advisory-level wind gusts are medium- high (40-80 percent) for wind-prone areas within the region outlined above. Similar to Thursday, the dry air mass (ensemble- advertised PWATs of 0.25-0.50") coupled with sufficient downward mixing during the daytime should facilitate some low relative humidity (10-20 percent) prior to the arrival of a more humid air mass by later Friday. Taking a glance at the weekend into next week, ensemble NWP guidance shows little to no signal for organized precipitation until Tuesday as upper-level ridging remains the favored scenario for the bulk of the West. Periods of breezy westerly winds are favored as the ridge axis shifts inland Sunday through early next week and ensemble guidance shows potential for a couple additional shortwaves to ride over the top of the ridge. To briefly touch on forecast temperatures, for most of our population centers high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 90s coupled with lows in the upper 40s to lower 60s will present predominantly Minor (level 1 of 4) HeatRisk. This level of heat primarily affects those who are extremely sensitive to heat and without cooling/hydration. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... VFR conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours. Winds will be breezy to windy later this morning through evening at all terminals, strongest at DLS/PDT. Predominantly mid- to high- level cloud is forecast to increase in coverage by early afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Breezy to windy westerly winds are forecast today, and Wind Advisories are in effect for multiple zones. Locally low (10-20 percent) relative humidity is forecast to accompany breezy (Thursday) to windy (Friday) westerly winds across the Columbia Basin and surrounding lowlands. Poor to moderate overnight relative humidity recovery is anticipated Thursday night for ridgetop, mid-slope, and some basin locations. Above-normal temperatures are forecast this week and into next week, and significant precipitation is unlikely (90 percent confidence). && .HYDROLOGY... The Naches River is forecast to remain near (Cliffdell) or above (Naches) action stage through the remainder of the week and into next week. Significant precipitation is unlikely (90 percent confidence) for the next week. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 82 54 77 51 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 82 56 77 54 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 89 58 83 57 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 88 53 83 51 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 85 57 80 54 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 80 49 77 49 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 83 44 80 43 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 81 48 75 44 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 81 46 78 45 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 83 55 80 52 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM PDT Thursday for WAZ024-026-521. OR...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ041-044-507-508-510. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...86 FIRE WEATHER...86 HYDROLOGY...86

041 FXUS65 KREV 060717 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1217 AM PDT Wed May 6 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Warmer and drier weather prevails Wednesday through at least early next week. * Breezy afternoon winds are likely with a weak system to our north on Friday. * Near record heat is becoming increasingly likely late this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... A few lingering showers remain this morning across areas south of Highway-50 this morning. These showers should end by sunrise as the upper level trough leaves the area. In its wake, northerly flow brings cool and dry air. However, this afternoon will be slightly warmer than yesterday due to mostly clear skies. A high amplitude upper level ridge from the Eastern Pacific extending north towards the Alaska Peninsula takes over through Friday morning resulting in a warming trend. Afternoon highs will be around 5 to 10 degrees above average for this time of the year. Also expect typical afternoon westerly winds each day. On Friday afternoon, a weak upper level shortwave trough pushes through the PacNW. This system will lead to an increase of our typical afternoon westerly winds with gusts most likely in the 25 to 35 mph range with a 10-60% chance of gusts exceeding 40 mph over wind prone areas. The main areas of concern will be north of I-80, including mountain ridges and eastern slopes of mountains. Temps will stop their gradual increase on Friday with this system. The ridge quickly returns on Friday evening and continues a slow eastward trajectory towards the Desert Southwest. This will allow for warmer and drier air to move in leading to higher afternoon temperatures this weekend and early next week. Western Nevada and NE California valleys have high (60-90%) chance of reaching their first 90 degree days of the season (Mon/Tue). The NV Basin and Range lowest valleys may reach the mid-90s by Monday. Moderate HeatRisk is likely over western NV lowest valleys on both days as temperatures have 50-60% chance of breaking the high temp records. By next Wednesday, the backside of the ridge starts to pull subtropical moisture from the Gulf of California towards W NV bringing back clouds and rain chances into the forecast. The cloud cover will help drop temperatures back into the 80s, but we remain 10-15 degrees above average. -HC && .AVIATION... VFR conditions prevail through Thursday morning. The exception will be a few lingering showers near KMMH/KHTH through 15Z this morning. Plus, FG leading to IFR/LIFR conditions at KTRK between 08-15Z each morning. Winds will be generally light and VRB overnight early morning, then become from the north between 18-03Z with speeds to 5-12 kts and gusts up to 20 kts. -HC && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$

184 FXUS66 KSTO 052108 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 208 PM PDT Tue May 5 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Lingering mountain shower and thunderstorm chances into this evening, with drying conditions midweek. - Hot and dry conditions are expected to develop end of the week with widespread Minor HeatRisk Thursday and Friday. - Widespread Moderate HeatRisk Saturday into Tuesday, with triple digit and daily record highs possible. && .DISCUSSION... ...Today... Latest RADAR shows just a few light returns over the Sierra south of Hwy 108. Convective Allowing Models(CAMs) suggest some showers showers and possibly a couple isolated thunderstorms around the I-80 corridor from around 3 to 6 pm, potentially a few more before midnight. Precipitation will be generally light but there may be a few pockets of moderate rainfall at times. Snow levels are expected to remain above 9000 feet, so all but the high peaks should see precipitation in the form of rain. Showers should be ending by around midnight. Highs this afternoon are 5 to 10 degrees below normal, in the upper 60s to low 70s. ...Wednesday through next Tuesday... Wednesday is expected to be dry with near normal high temperatures as the cool low pressure system exits and eastern Pacific high pressure ridging shifts into the region. This is the beginning of an extended period of dry and warm weather. Conditions continue to warm as we move into weekend into early next week. Minor HeatRisk is expected across the Valley Wednesday, becoming more widespread and extending into the foothills and mountains by the end of the week. Some areas of Moderate HeatRisk are expected in the Valley by Saturday, expanding to include the foothills by Sunday. The NBM currently indicates a 60-90% chance of high temperatures greater than 90 degrees in the Valley Saturday, 75-95% on Sunday. Minimum RH values trend lower through the week as well, dropping into the 20s and teens by the weekend. This will coincide with a period of breezy north winds that develops on Saturday which could lead to elevated fire weather conditions in the central Sacramento Valley. Forecast gusts are between 15 and 25 mph. Looking into early next week, models (including the NBM 5.0) continue to show at the potential for triple digit temperatures as ridging amplifies over the region. Some daily high temperature records are in jeopardy. The NBM continues to indicate a 50 to 70% chance of 100 or greater in the northern San Joaquin Valley and portions of the central Sacramento Valley next Monday and Tuesday. There may be some Delta breeze to give influenced areas a slight break for overnight lows. && .AVIATION... Scattered low clouds and ceilings will lead to MVFR conditions this morning in the Valley through roughly 20Z today. VFR conditions through 09Z Wednesday, before scattered low clouds redevelop in the Valley leading to MVFR conditions until around 21Z Wednesday. Low chance (10-15%) of isolated mountain showers/thunderstorms developing this afternoon along the Sierra crest. Otherwise, surface winds will generally be 12 kts or less. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

291 FXUS65 KMSO 060825 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 225 AM MDT Wed May 6 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Showers and possible thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday for northwest Montana - Warming for the remainder of the work week - A weak disturbance on Saturday causing slightly cooler temperatures and potential of light showers near Glacier NP Satellite imagery early this morning indicates a region of dry air over the West Coast indicative of a ridge of high pressure. The Northern Rockies will remain under northerly flow aloft ahead of this ridge today. Expect daytime high temperatures to start to creep up above normal, where they will stay for the remainder of the work week. Mostly clear skies this morning will give way to increasing high clouds this afternoon. Moisture riding over the ridge embedded in the northerly flow will arrive tonight, accompanied by a weak disturbance primarily affecting northwest Montana in the form of showers and thunderstorms during the overnight hours. Some high-resolution model soundings indicate enough instability for isolated airmass thunderstorms capable of producing small hail, lightning, and gusty outflow winds of about 30-40 mph. Northwesterly flow aloft takes over on Thursday as the ridge broadens and moves closer to the Northern Rockies. Showers will linger over the Continental Divide including Glacier Park through Thursday, while the rest of the Northern Rockies sees decreasing clouds. Another weak disturbance arrives on Saturday. About 70% of ensemble model solutions are onboard with widespread cloud cover and light precipitation. Rain or no rain, Saturday will bring a cool-down to near-normal daytime high temperatures. && .AVIATION...Winds will take on a more westerly character today, though stay elevated this afternoon. Expect gusts of about 20 knots this afternoon at KMSO, KBTM, and KSMN. High clouds will increase this afternoon as a weak disturbance approaches from the north. KGPI will see chances for showers and thunderstorms tonight by about 07/0300Z. Chances for thunderstorms are about 10-15%. Thunderstorms that do develop will be capable of small hail, lightning, and gusty outflow winds of about 25-35 knots. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

989 FXUS65 KBOI 061223 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 623 AM MDT Wed May 6 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry conditions through Friday with temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal. - Dry cold front on Friday afternoon brings breezy conditions. - Temperatures warming to 15-20 degrees above normal next Monday and Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Friday Night/... Issued 415 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2026 A backdoor cold front has moved across the Snake Basin from eastern ID and has brought cooler temperatures, breezy conditions and drier air. The easterly winds will be shortlived as the northwest winds aloft mix down to the surface by this afternoon. Temperatures will be steady today with a few degrees of warming on Thursday and Friday as a ridge strengthens over the Pacific NW. A dry cold front will move through the area on Friday afternoon, bringing breezy conditions. && .LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/... Issued 415 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2026 Slightly cooler temperatures on Saturday behind the cold front. Then the upper level ridge redevelops over the western US, with the warmest temperatures of the season by next Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures rise 15 to 20 degrees above normal with highs of 85 to 90 degrees in the Snake Basin. && .AVIATION /12Z Wednesday through Thursday/... Issued 623 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2026 VFR. Surface winds: E-SE 5-15 kt with gusts 20- 30 kt through the Snake Plain. Winds in the afternoon becoming W-NW 5-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: N 15-30 kt, becoming W-NW 15-25 kt after Wed/18Z. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: SE 8-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt in the morning, becoming NW 7-12 kt in the afternoon. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....KA SHORT TERM...KA LONG TERM....KA

282 FXUS65 KLKN 060711 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1211 AM PDT Wed May 6 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Warming trend Wednesday through the rest of the week * High pressure builds into the Great Basin signaling a prolonged stretch of dry weather && .UPDATE... Issued at 1205 AM PDT Wed May 6 2026 As precipitation and storm activity winds down through the night upper level ridging and high pressure are expected to steer the weather pattern for the foreseeable future. The warming trend is on track for the rest of the week with dry weather in store for the region. No major changes to the forecast are needed at this time. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Wednesday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The upper trough that passed over the area will continue moving to the south and closing off over Baja California Wednesday evening. Rising heights due to an upper level high pressure system will be in store for northern and central Nevada. Skies are expected to be mostly sunny with highs in the 60s and 70s. Winds will be out of the north with some gusts to 25 mph. Continued dry conditions expected during the overnight with lows in the 30s and 40s. Thursday through the weekend, models are showing upper ridging maintaining a grip on the weather across the area through the period. This will mean temperatures will climb to above normal levels through about Friday with readings in the 70s and 80s. Overnight lows will be in the 30s and 40s. Winds will be breezy each afternoon with gusts to 25 mph. By Sunday, high temperatures will climb even more with readings in the 80s for the most part. A few near record temperatures may be possible Sunday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Confidence in the warmup through the period continues at a moderate level. No changes were made to the NBM forecast. && .AVIATION... Look for VFR conditions through Wednesday afternoon with some breezes to 20KT. && .FIRE WEATHER... Skies will clear on Wednesday with gradually warming temperatures through the week. No fire weather concerns are anticipated in the short term. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...99 DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...86 FIRE WEATHER...86