ZSE Aviation Forecast Discussions

495 FXUS66 KSEW 041011 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 311 AM PDT Sat Jul 4 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Weak upper level trough over the area today and tonight will move east Sunday. Weak upper level ridge Sunday and Monday will move east Tuesday. Another upper level trough will move over Western Washington Wednesday and remain through the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Satellite imagery shows clouds filling in pretty fast over western Washington early this morning. The aurora was visible on some web cams north of Seattle before the clouds arrived. Temperatures at 3 am/10z were in the 50s and lower 60s. Weak upper level trough over Western Washington today with light onshore flow in the lower levels. Pretty much a replay of Friday with morning clouds giving way to some sunshine in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s over the interior and mid 60s along the coast. Upper level trough hanging over the area tonight before moving east Sunday. Low level flow turning light overnight with northerly flow in the lower levels Sunday. This will thin out the marine layer leading to an earlier breakout on Sunday. Breezy north wind in the afternoon especially near the water. With a little more sunshine highs a touch warmer, in the 70s over the interior and upper 60s along the coast. Temporary upper level ridge building Sunday night and Monday. %00 mb heights rising into the upper 570 dms to lower 580 dms. light flow in the lower levels. Monday will be the warmest day in the next seven days for the interior with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Highs on the coast with an afternoon seabreeze staying in the mid to upper 60s. Felton && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Upper level ridge moves east Monday night with an upper level trough and associated front approaching the coast Tuesday. Increasing onshore flow during the day Tuesday will drop highs in the interior back into the 70s. Highs on the coast in the lower to mid 60s. Upper level trough and associated front moving through Wednesday for mostly cloudy skies and a chance of rain for most of the area. Highs continue to cool with 60s and lower 70s in the forecast. Weak upper level trough hanging around Wednesday night through the end of the week. Low level onshore flow making for a morning clouds afternoon sunshine scenario Thursday and Friday. Highs remaining near or a couple of degrees below normal, in the upper 60s to mid 70s over the interior and mid 60s on the coast. && .AVIATION... MVFR cigs slowly filling in this morning, expecting widespread MVFR cigs in within the next hour or so. Improvement to VFR expected after 17-19z. The coast may see some brief improvement this afternoon to low-end VFR. However, it is possible that ceilings may hover around high-end MVFR. Another round of widespread low clouds expected tonight/early Sunday morning, with latest probabilities around 30-50% for interior terminals and 60-90% for the coast for MVFR cigs. Southwesterly winds in the interior terminals and northwesterly winds along the coast and Strait of Juan de Fuca this morning. Strong onshore flow this evening along the Strait of Juan de Fuca with gusts to 20 kt possible through Sunday morning. This will result in northwesterly winds spilling into Puget Sound terminals this afternoon, then shifting northeasterly in the evening with gusts to 15 kt possible. KSEA...MVFR conditions early this morning. Ceilings expected to improve this afternoon after 18z. MVFR cigs look to return (40% chance) early Sunday morning after 11z. Southwesterly winds this morning 5-7 kt will shift northwesterly this afternoon after 21z to 7-9 kt. Northeasterly winds 8-12 kt after 02z with gusts to 15 kt through Sunday morning. 29 && .MARINE... A rather stagnant weather pattern will persist over Washington`s waters into next week. Broad high pressure over the northeast Pacific and lower pressure inland will keep an onshore flow pattern. This will result in increased westerlies through the Strait of Juan de Fuca each evening, some having the potential to reach small craft thresholds. There is high confidence (greater than 70%) for strong westerlies this evening through the Strait. Guidance also suggests there is a 70% chance or higher for small craft winds to reach Admiralty Inlet this evening as well. Therefore, small craft advisories are set to go into effect the Central/East Strait and Admiralty Inlet later this evening. Winds will also increase for the lower coastal waters late this evening to advisory thresholds. There is high confidence (75-85%) for increased northwesterly winds Sunday evening across all portions of the coastal waters, likely requiring additional advisories. Long term guidance highlights a 60-90% chance for small craft winds through the Strait next week, likely requiring additional headlines. A few weak fronts will move through the waters throughout the week, but high pressure is expected to rebuild quickly over the waters behind the fronts. Seas will build late this evening to 6-8 ft and up to 10 ft through Monday. Seas will gradually subside below 10 ft on Tuesday to 4-6 ft. 29 && .FIRE WEATHER... Even with the slight warming trend into next Monday the low level flow never turns offshore. This will keep good overnight relative humidity recoveries in the forecast and help subdue fire weather concerns despite the warmer temperatures. Another front in the middle of next week will bring a chance of rain to the area keeping fire weather concerns at a minimum. We already have small fires cropping up in the Olympics and Cascades even without elevated fire weather conditions. If you are in the mountains the next few days please be extra careful. Felton && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT early this morning for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Sunday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca- East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Sunday for Admiralty Inlet. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Sunday for Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. && $$

245 FXUS66 KPQR 041002 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 302 AM PDT Sat Jul 4 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Expect a warm and dry 4th of July weekend across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington. Temperatures warm up slightly Sunday and Monday as high pressure builds, leading to localized Moderate HeatRisk. An upper-level trough moving into British Columbia Tuesday to Wednesday will cool temperatures a few degrees and bring chances for precipitation along the south Washington and north Oregon coast. Dry and warmer conditions return on Thursday, however persistent onshore flow will help to maintain near normal daytime highs across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington. Make sure to practice water safety when swimming in local rivers. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Monday Night...Minimal change in the overall synoptic pattern as zonal flow aloft continues to be maintained across the Pacific Northwest as an upper-level trough swings through British Columbia and upper-level ridging continues to build over The Great Basin. This set up will help maintain onshore flow with temperatures near to slightly above normal across the CWA today. Expect afternoon highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s across interior valleys and low to upper 60s along the coast. Sunday to Monday, ensemble guidance continues to show The Great Basin high pressure, building into the region. This will result in warmer temperatures across the CWA. Expect daytime highs in for the interior valleys in the mid to upper 80s and into the mid 60s to mid 70s along the coast. Model ensemble guidance continues to maintain that Monday will be the warmest day. The latest NBM guidance has a 10-35% chance for Monday afternoon highs exceeding 90 degrees along the I-5 corridor from Eugene, OR to the Portland/Vancouver Metro Area, Columbia River Gorge, and Upper Hood River Valley. This will result in localized Moderate HeatRisk on Monday, meaning this level of heat will affect those sensitive to heat, especially those without adequate cooling or hydration. Low temperatures in the 50s across the entire area should provide decent overnight relief from the heat. It is important to remember that while temperatures will be warming up for the holiday weekend and next week, many local lakes and rivers remain very cold and can cause cold water shock. Also, rivers may still have swift currents in some areas, which can quickly sweep you away. Please practice water safety by wearing life jackets, visiting with a buddy, and always being aware of your surroundings. /42-10 .LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday...Looking into the middle of next week and towards next weekend, the majority of ensemble members are showing an upper-level trough from the Gulf of Alaska moving down into British Columbia thus compressing The Great Basin upper level high. Given the more northern track of this trough, most places across the area is expected to be dry. An exception would be the south Washington and north Oregon coast where this system favors a 15-30% chance for light rain from Tuesday night to Wednesday, but it should be noted that current QPF totals are minimal at best. Despite the lack of widespread, if any precipitation, onshore flow will increase and support temperatures cooling a few degrees closer to seasonal normals for early July. West-northwesterly winds are generally expected to be light for most areas during this time. However, will see locally breezier along the central Columbia River Gorge and Upper Hood River Valley, where there is a 25-40% chance for at least isolated wind gusts exceeding 40 mph Tuesday and Wednesday. As for the end of next week, most ensemble members show the British Columbia trough weakening as it moves eastward. At the same time, The Great Basin high looks to re-establish itself. This will bring about a return of zonal flow for the Pac NW which will bring warm and dry conditions back into the forecast. /42-10 && .AVIATION...High pressure will continue to slowly build over the region, resulting in predominately VFR conditions for inland locations through the TAF period. Coastal locations will maintain MVFR conditions through 16Z-19Z Saturday with improvement towards VFR expected afterwards as daytime heating will aid in mixing of the atmosphere. Starting around 06Z-09Z Sunday, marine stratus is expected to return to the coast bringing MVFR flight conditions back into the forecast. Northerly wind less than 10 kt expected through the TAF period, but could see some gusts up to 15 kt for locations in the northern part of the Willamette Valley (KPDX, KVUO and KUAO) from around 00Z-06Z Sunday as well as gusts up to 25 kt along the coast from 18Z Saturday through 06Z Sunday. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions expected to persist through the TAF period. Northerly wind less than 10 kt expected through the TAF period, but could see some gusts up to 15 kt starting around 00Z-05Z Sunday. /42 && .MARINE...High pressure over the region result in increasing winds and building seas through Monday. Northerly winds will slowly increase through the afternoon and will result in gusts up to 20 kt by this evening and continuing to strengthen with gusts up to 30 kt by Sunday. Seas will also build from 4 to 6 ft towards 6 to 8 ft by Sunday. As a result, have maintained the current suite of Small Craft Advisories through at least Sunday night. High pressure will slowly become displaced towards the start of next week, thus easing overall conditions by Monday night/Tuesday which is expected to persist through the remainder of next week. /42 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ251-271. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ252-272. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ253-273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

521 FXUS66 KMFR 040557 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1056 PM PDT Fri Jul 3 2026 ...Updated AVIATION Discussion for 06Z TAFs... && .AVIATION...04/06Z TAFs...Clear skies over inland areas look to support VFR levels through the TAF period, with breezy winds possible in the afternoon hours. Marine stratus has brought MVFR ceilings to North Bend with IFR levels at Brookings as of this discussion. These ceilings look to stay near IFR/MVFR thresholds overnight, with clearing expected late Saturday morning. Gusty winds are expected at North Bend shortly after marine stratus clears. -TAD && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 255 PM PDT Fri Jul 3 2026/ KEY POINTS... * Low impact weather expected through the 4th of July holiday. * Summer like conditions return today with temperatures trending to 5 to 10 degrees above normal, peaking Sunday. * No precipitation in the forecast through Saturday. * Sunday/Monday - Slight chance thunderstorms across northern California and East Side, most likely across northern Klamath/Lake Counties * Wednesday - Dry front raises potential fire weather concerns for gusty winds/low RH east of Cascades. DISCUSSION...Summer conditions return today as heights build slightly and temperatures trend warmer to just a few degrees above normal. Meanwhile, high pressure currently over the eastern CONUS will weaken and expand westward across the southern U.S. This high pressure tries build over the Desert Southwest through the weekend, but energy and moisture from the southeast Pacific will move into southern California late in the weekend, keeping the ridge subdued some. Meanwhile, weak low pressure waves will continue to move into British Columbia, leaving the area under southwest flow Sunday into early next week. We don`t expect impactful weather through the 4th of July holiday. Temperatures will trend warmer over the weekend, peaking around 5 to 10 degrees above normal (upper 80s East/mid 90s West). We don`t expect any heat related impacts into early next week and we should get through most of the Holiday weekend with fairly benign/typical weather. With southwest flow over the region and high pressure in the dessert southwest, we`ve been scrutinizing the pattern for any days where thunderstorms or the combination of gusty winds/low RH could be a concern. Details are becoming clearer, and it now looks like we could see some isolated thunderstorms in the region on Sunday and Monday. We`ll be on the periphery of that previously mentioned moisture and energy that moves into the mid-lattitudes Sunday and Monday, and models show enough moisture/instability in the region for a slight chance of thunderstorms across northern California and east of the Cascades. The better agreement is for area across northern Klamath and Lake Counties, primarily from Chemult eastward, but these southwest flow patterns tend to increase the risk across northern California as well. Instability is currently lacking for Tuesday, so this day looks less concerning for thunderstorm potential. On Wednesday, models are in good agreement for a weakening front to approach the area from the northwest. A deep marine push is possible Tuesday night as this front moves inland and it`s possible there could be a few sprinkles for locations along the coast Wednesday morning. The front really falls apart, however, as it moves inland, so this front will likely go unnoticed for most folks. Temperature will trend cooler by a few degrees on Wednesday, but no where near as mild as we`ve seen over the last week or so. The bigger impact from this front will be enhanced afternoon winds that potentially combine with lower humidities and result in fire weather concerns east of the Cascades. Stay tuned for updates. /BR-y MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Friday, July 3, 2026...Gusty north winds will persist through the weekend and into early next week, maintaining steep to very steep seas. Conditions will be somewhat improved today as winds are lower compared to recent days. Advisory level winds will persist south of Cape Blanco and maintain steep seas south of Port Orford into early Saturday. Conditions worsen Saturday afternoon as north winds increase. Steep seas will return to areas north of Cape Blanco with very steep seas developing south of Cape Blanco and beyond 5 nm from shore. There could be a brief period of gale force gusts Saturday afternoon south of Gold Beach between 10 and 30 nm from shore. These conditions are likely to persist through Sunday, then improve early next week as north winds weaken. /BR-y FIRE WEATHER...There is a slight chance of late day thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday for northern California and south central Oregon, with the highest probability for northern/eastern Klamath and northern Lake counties on Sunday evening. A few thunderstorms may also develop in Lake and Modoc counties on Sunday night into Monday morning. The main model difference regards whether the extent of the risk in northern California will be similar or less than that of south central Oregon. It also bears mentioning that there are also a small minority of ensemble members that extend a slight chance thunderstorm risk into southwest Oregon on either day. Otherwise, high temperatures remain around 5 to 10 degrees above normal, ridge top humidity recoveries will remain moderate, and afternoon breezes remain typical to slightly enhanced during the next week. This will result in very dry conditions near critical wind and humidity thresholds, especially on the east side on Tuesday and Wednesday. Models have trended slightly weaker with a dry cold front on Wednesday, but east side breezes and low minimum humidities may nudge across critical thresholds. Also, gusty northeast winds will continue at coastal ridges during the overnight hours through Sunday, strongest early on Sunday. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Monday for PZZ356. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 2 AM PDT Monday for PZZ350-370. Hazardous Seas Warning from 2 PM Saturday to 2 AM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ376. && $$

684 FXUS66 KEKA 040716 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 1216 AM PDT Sat Jul 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Northerly breezes near the coastline through the weekend. - Hotter temperatures over the holiday weekend. && .SYNOPSIS...Northerly breezes will persist along the coastline through the weekend into the first half of next week. Temperatures will warm into the weekend with interior valley high temperatures in the mid to high 90s. && .DISCUSSION...High pressure is strengthening through the Four Corners region and into Northern California. Temperatures for the interior will warm to the mid to upper 90s, and locally up to 100 through the weekend. This will bring some minor to isolated moderate heat risk through the holiday weekend. Some moisture from tropical system Douglas off Baja, California will be drawn northward Sunday and perhaps Monday as a trough nudges down from the Pacific Northwest. The elevated moisture available for thunderstorm development still looks to stay mainly east of Trinity County through the Sacramento Valley and mid-level lapse rates are weak. This will still bear watching if higher moisture is forecast, or a farther west extent is modeled. Northeast pacific troughing will then weaken the SW high and lower temperatures some. Low clouds and fog potential are depicted for portions of the coast on July 4th. There are some indications effective diurnal mixing may delay the stratus onset around Humboldt Bay, but there are strong indications the stratus will indeed form through the night at some point. Along the coast, in general, there is a 20% chance of ceilings falling below 500 feet by sunset while chances of ceilings below 1000 feet is around 40%. && .AVIATION...Ceilings at KCEC will remain under 1000 feet tonight with IFR conditions continuing through the rest of the evening as southerly winds become the prevailing direction overnight. Into Saturday early morning hours there could be a stretch of LIFR flight categories at KACV and KCEC with light winds out of the south and lower visibility as Dew Points drop towards the temperature. KUKI will have prevailing VFR conditions into Saturday with calm winds overnight transitioning to light southerly winds by Saturday morning and into the afternoon. /EYS && .MARINE...Northerly winds along the coast remain strong as a thermal trough strengthens over the interior keeping the pressure gradient tight. Thus, small craft advisories remain in place over the outer waters zones. The gradient will tighten slightly Saturday night into Sunday and gusts to near gale will be possible in the northern outer waters for a 18-24 hour period. Otherwise, a deepening trough off the Pacific Northwest will finally disturb the pressure gradient enough that small crafts may be able to fully end early next week. /RPA && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ470-475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

960 FXUS66 KMTR 041140 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 440 AM PDT Sat Jul 4 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1200 AM PDT Sat Jul 4 2026 - Marine layer stratus develops each evening and overnight before retreating to the coast each morning and afternoon - Temperatures near to slightly below seasonal averages for Independence Day - Temperatures dip for Sunday and Monday with a slight chance of showers on Sunday, warming trend for the mid to late week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1200 AM PDT Sat Jul 4 2026 (Today and tonight) The marine layer stratus is continuing to make its way inland, as the clouds come into the Sonoma County valleys, the Richmond- Berkeley area and down the Salinas Valley. Stratus will make its way into the coastal valleys through the night, retreating to the immediate coastal regions through the post-dawn and afternoon hours before returning this evening and overnight. The weather pattern this Independence Day will be driven by a ridge set up over the Rocky Mountains and a shortwave trough that develops in the eastern Pacific, with California set up in a kind of transition zone between the two. Low temperatures remain in the lower to middle 50s in the lower elevations, and rise into the lower to middle 60s across the higher elevations. Today`s highs are generally near to below the seasonal averages with highs in the 80s across the inland valleys, up to the lower to middle 90s in the warmest interior spots, the middle 60s to the upper 70s close to the Bays, and the middle 50s to lower 60s along the Pacific coast. Some breezy onshore winds develop in the afternoon and evening with gusts reaching 20 to 25 mph through gaps, passes, and the northern Salinas Valley. People planning to celebrate America`s 250th birthday with fireworks or outdoor cookouts should remember their fire safety, obey any local burn bans, and keep a fire extinguisher nearby when playing with fireworks or cooking with open flames. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1200 AM PDT Sat Jul 4 2026 (Sunday through Friday) The long term outlook continues to show a balance between ridging across the Western United States and a series of troughs in the eastern Pacific through the next few days. A shortwave trough will knock down temperatures by a few degrees on Sunday with around five degrees of cooling within the inland valleys. In addition, as a pulse of moisture comes into the Bay Area and Central Coast, a few convective showers could develop Sunday morning and afternoon. High resolution convective models are showing the possibility for showers to come through the region, and the GFS K Index fields show a potential for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms as the pulse of moisture comes through. However, with dry slots aloft, particularly near the 700 mb level (around 10,000 feet above sea level) and no obvious lifting mechanism besides local topography, confidence is not high enough to introduce probabilities for precipitation or thunder at this time. The oncoming day shift will reevaluate local conditions and make any grid modifications as necessary. Monday will not have a chance for showers, but otherwise conditions should be similar to Sunday. Towards the middle and later parts of the week, temperatures will gradually rise inland as the ridge strengthens and moves into the Desert Southwest, with a particular emphasis on Wednesday and Thursday when local temperature gradients range from the lower to middle 60s at the immediate coast to the upper 80s to lower 90s in the inland valleys, to the triple digits up to 105 within the warmest spots of southern Monterey County. CPC outlooks continue to lean towards temperatures above seasonal averages into the middle of July. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 436 AM PDT Sat Jul 4 2026 Rinse and repeat kinda morning with a similar stratus deck covering the Bay Area. Once again, used a blend of persistence and near term HRRR/HREF. Do expect VFR again this afternoon minus KHAF. Early return of stratus tonight. Conf Moderate to High. Vicinity of SFO...CIGs hold 17-18Z. Gusty onshore develops by 20-21Z. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...LIFR to MVFR through mid-late morning. VFR this afternoon. Early return this evening. && .MARINE... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 436 AM PDT Sat Jul 4 2026 Northerly flow will remain over the coastal waters thanks to high pressure anchored the north. Locally hazardous conditions will persist over the outer waters north of Point Reyes through early Sunday due to fresh to strong breezes. Sunday and into Monday gentle to moderate breezes are expected. More widespread stronger winds and seas will build starting Monday night and continuing through the week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...DialH LONG TERM....DialH AVIATION...MM MARINE...MM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

682 FXUS66 KOTX 041150 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 450 AM PDT Sat Jul 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated to critical fire weather expected for Independence Day with breezy winds and low RHs Saturday afternoon and early evening. - Gradual warming trend continues into early next week. Moderate HeatRisk by Monday and Tuesday with highs in the 90s. && .SYNOPSIS... Independence Day will see seasonally warm temperatures in the 80s to near 90s. Dry and breezy conditions will result in elevated to critical fire weather conditions across the area. Temperatures will continue climbing through Tuesday, resulting in widespread Moderate HeatRisk. The risk for critical fire weather conditions increases Tuesday and especially Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Saturday (Independence Day) and Sunday: The trough off the PNW coast has started to push its way inland, bringing higher heights to the area and an increase in temperatures. High temperatures today are expected to be in the high 80s to low 90s, with lows reaching the high 50s. This is around 5-7 degrees above normal this time of year. Clouds will be sparse, bringing a clear holiday to the Inland Northwest. Sunday will see temperatures very similar to Saturday. A trough off the Canadian coast will also move eastward and into British Columbia. This will usher a weak cold front through the forecast area, resulting in west to southwesterly wind gusts 25-35 mph across the Cascade gaps, Columbia Basin, and Waterville Plateau. Minimum relative humidity values will be 15 to 25 percent, which will result in critical fire weather conditions across the Okanogan Valley, Colville Reservation, Cascade foothills, Waterville Plateau, Methow Valley, and Western Columbia Basin. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for these areas, as well as for the foothills of the Blues, where it will end one hour earlier. With critical fire conditions, rapid fire spread is likely with any new or ongoing fires. Monday through Wednesday: As the ridge moves further inland and strengthens, high temperatures will increase by 4-6 degrees between Sunday and Monday, reaching the high 80s and low 90s. This will bring a return of Moderate HeatRisk to much of the area. Moderate HeatRisk impacts all those sensitive to heat, especially those without access to adequate cooling and hydration. Tuesday will be the hottest day of the warmup, with temperatures in the mid to high 90s and further widespread coverage of Moderate HeatRisk. Please make sure to keep cool and hydrated. On Monday evening, a strong low off the Gulf of Alaska will begin moving southward down the Canadian coast, and by Tuesday will move inland and across British Columbia. This will usher a strong and dry cold front through the area, bringing about a classic fire weather pattern for the Inland Northwest. On Tuesday, ahead of the frontal passage, winds in the Cascade gaps will increase to 25-30 mph. However, on Wednesday with the frontal passage, winds will increase across much of central Washington with gusts up to 40 mph expected in the afternoon and evening. Alongside relative humidity values in the high teens to low 20s, this will bring another round of critical fire weather conditions to the area. This will be closely monitored, with fire weather headlines becoming increasingly likely. Thursday through Friday: Clusters and long-term models show disagreement in the weather pattern to end the work week. Half of the clusters show lower heights continuing to impact the area, which will keep temperatures right at or just below normal. The other half of clusters show higher heights moving through the area, which would favor temperatures rising above normal. /AS && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFs: VFR conditons are expected. A dry cold front will move through the area Saturday afternoon, increasing winds at most terminals late morning, 18-21Z. EAT will see the highest wind gusts at 25-30kts, with other areas seeing less than that throughout the afternoon. Winds are expected to weaken once the front passes through around 01-04Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions regionwide. Main uncertainty comes with precise timing of winds increasing and strength of gusts in the foothills of the East Slopes into the Western Columbia Basin. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 86 53 85 52 90 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 83 53 84 54 89 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 82 50 82 50 87 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 92 59 90 58 94 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Colville 85 48 84 48 90 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 82 52 83 53 87 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 81 53 82 52 89 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Moses Lake 91 53 89 55 94 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 88 59 89 62 93 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 89 53 87 57 93 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Palouse -Snake River (Zone 709). Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Methow Valley (Zone 704)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707). ID...None. && $$

938 FXUS66 KPDT 041015 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 315 AM PDT Sat Jul 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Red Flag Warning for critical fire weather conditions in the Oregon Columbia Basin today, with local enhanced fire weather conditions elsewhere. - Warming temperatures through Tuesday, with isolated thunderstorms in the eastern mountains Sunday through Tuesday. - Another round of elevated fire weather concerns around midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Zonal flow will remain over the region today before the flow becomes southwesterly later Sunday into Monday. The flow will then remain southwesterly though Tuesday before becoming more westerly again on Wednesday. Dry and diurnally breezy conditions are expected today. The dry conditions coupled with afternoon RH values in the teens in many locations has prompted the issuance of a red flag warning for the Columbia Basin of Oregon. In other areas, winds are not expected to be as high, but RH values will still be low, so elevated fire weather concerns are still expected despite no fire weather headlines. As the flow becomes more southwesterly on Sunday, a series of short waves will move through the flow each day. As a result there will be low (<20 percent) chances of showers and thunderstorms, mainly over the eastern Oregon mountains, with the best (albeit low) probabilities Monday and Tuesday. Monday and Tuesday will also see the hottest temperatures, with Monday in the low to mid 90s in the lower elevations and Tuesday in the mid to upper 90s. The Columbia Basin, could certainly make a run at 100 degrees on one or both of those days. HeatRisk is widespread Moderate across the lower elevations on Monday and Tuesday. By Wednesday, an area of low pressure is expected to move into British Columbia and will bring a weak front through the area. Stronger westerly winds will increase later Tuesday and continue behind the front will bring another period of enhanced fire weather concerns, especially for the Columbia Basin, but also for the Kittitas Calley, Simcoe Highlands and possibly other areas as well. RH values will be higher on Wednesday in some areas, before decreasing again on Thursday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds will gust this afternoon and evening to 20 to 25 kts at all sites except PSC, before subsiding to around 10 kts or less. && .FIRE WEATHER... Red flag warning is in effect for this afternoon and evening for OR691 as gust diurnal winds and low RH create critical conditions. For other areas, winds aren`t expected to be as strong but will still have low RH so there will still be elevated concerns. Winds will decrease Sunday into Monday. Elevated fire weather concerns occur again later Tuesday through midweek as westerly winds increase. Will have to see how the RH profile combines with these increasing winds. There is also a low (<20 percent) chance of thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday, mainly over the eastern Oregon mountains. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 89 53 87 56 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 90 58 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 93 56 91 56 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 92 55 91 58 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 92 56 90 57 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 83 51 87 54 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 88 49 89 54 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 89 53 88 55 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 92 52 93 56 / 0 0 0 10 DLS 87 57 92 60 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...OR...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 10 PM PDT this evening for ORZ691. && $$ DISCUSSION...77 AVIATION...77 FIRE WEATHER...82

854 FXUS65 KREV 040819 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 119 AM PDT Sat Jul 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Typical July heat continues into next week with breezy afternoon winds posing minor fire and recreation impacts. * Mostly dry through next week with low chances of isolated showers and thunderstorms each afternoon into early next week. * Hotter temperatures and increasing heat risk possible late next week into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Western US ridging will maintain typical July heat through the holiday weekend with temperatures warming into the mid 80s for Sierra communities and 90s for lower elevations each afternoon through Sunday. These temperatures will support widespread minor HeatRisk with moderate HeatRisk spreading into lower W NV valleys--partly due to nighttime lows near the mid 60s. Otherwise, winds will remain breezy each afternoon, posing minor fire and recreation impacts. This afternoon features a low probability (10-15%) of showers and thunderstorms, but a more subsident mid-level flow should keep any showers/storms isolated and confined to the Sierra and near the Oregon border. Shower and isolated thunderstorm potential increases somewhat on Sunday in response to weak low pressure lifting through northern California. Areas closer to the low (i.e., from Tahoe-Reno northward to the Oregon border) have the best chance of light showers or perhaps a stray lightning strike. Better thunderstorm potential resides across the Surprise Valley and N Washoe County where instability is greatest. Deepening of an eastern Pacific trough will reintroduce southwesterly flow next week, extending very warm, dry, and breezy weather through the middle of next week. Isolated showers and thunderstorms remain possible in the afternoons early next week before drier air filters in and precludes shower/storm formation from mid to late week. Looking ahead, ensembles continue to show strong high pressure expanding across the Four Corners states late next week into next weekend. This pattern tends to result in a period of hot temperatures, and monsoonal moisture intrusions with increasing thunderstorm activity. There is higher confidence in the former as daytime highs are slated to flirt with 90F near the Sierra and 100F for lower elevations from Thursday onward. The latter is much more uncertain at this extended range, but worth keeping a close eye on as we head to mid-July. -Salas && .AVIATION... Widespread VFR conditions prevail today with only a 10-15% chance of showers and thunderstorms near KTRK-KTVL-KMMH. Mid to high cloud coverage will increase Sunday with low chances of showers and afternoon thunderstorms at Tahoe and Sierra Front terminals. Otherwise, expect light morning winds to become breezy each afternoon with typical west gusts of 20-25 kts. -Salas && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$

193 FXUS66 KSTO 031836 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1136 AM PDT Fri Jul 3 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer and more seasonable temperatures today through July 4th, followed by a gradual cooling trend. - Slight chance (5-15%) for isolated mountain thunderstorms today in the Sierra, primarily south of I-80, today through Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Mostly clear conditions prevail this morning across NorCal. Broad upper-level troughing with overall zonal heights aloft are allowing for slightly weaker onshore flow. Current pattern will bring in the possibility of afternoon/evening thunderstorms in the Sierra today through Monday, with a general 5-15% chance and best chances mainly south of I-80. Troughing expected to break down slowly and move east throughout the weekend, allowing for ridging developing in the desert southwest which will help bring in slightly warmer high temperatures today and for Independence Day. Triple-digit heat is expected for portions of the northern Sacramento Valley for July 4th, with areas of Moderate HeatRisk. Elsewhere in the Valley, mid to upper 90s, with Minor HeatRisk. Regardless of the HeatRisk, if you are planning on any outdoor activities for Independence Day be sure to drink plenty of water, apply sunscreen, and always wear a life jacket if you are on area waterways! For evening/night events, temperatures at 8PM PDT will be cooling as the sun sets. Except mostly clear conditions with temperatures in the low to mid 80s in Delta Breeze influenced areas with warmer, low to mid 90s in the northern Sacramento Valley. Similar conditions are expected tomorrow evening/night around 8PM, but Delta Breeze influenced areas will be slightly cooler with temperatures around 70-76, mid 80s in the rest of the Valley, and mid to upper 90s still lingering in the northern Sacramento Valley. Lastly, please remember to practice fire safety by adhering to local and state burn bans, firework laws, properly discarding matches/cigarettes, not driving over dry grass, and report any new fires to 9-1-1. Into next week, broad troughing is expected to redevelop offshore, thanks to an upper low in the Gulf of Alaska. We will see our high temperatures cool once again, to slightly below seasonal normals. Onshore flow is expected to become a little stronger, helping mitigate the temperatures and keep air moving through the CWA. We will keep afternoon/evening t-storm chances in the Sierra through Monday. Overall, Minor HeatRisk with slightly cooler than normal temperatures are forecast through most of next week. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Southwest to west wind gusts 15 to 25 kts in the Delta and over the Sierra Crest. South to southwest winds in the Sacramento Valley (northwest in the northern SJ Valley). Gusts from 10 to 20 kts from 22Z Friday to 08Z Saturday in the southern Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys, otherwise gusts less than 12 kts everywhere in the Valley. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

140 FXUS65 KMSO 040837 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 237 AM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Breezy and warm Fourth of July: Choppy conditions on area lakes. Winds calming and skies clearing for the evening. - Localized heavy rainfall threat Monday and Tuesday with showers and storms. Today and Sunday (The Holiday Weekend): For the Fourth of July, a weather system passing to our north through British Columbia will flatten the upper-level ridge overhead, translating to an increase in westerly winds this afternoon. Expect sustained winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts reaching 20 to 25 mph. This will create choppy conditions on area lakes, so recreational boaters should exercise caution. Fortunately, winds will diminish by dusk, leaving mostly clear skies and calm conditions for evening fireworks and holiday festivities. Sunday promises warm and mostly stable conditions for the majority of the Northern Rockies. The main exception will be across the southern tier of our forecast area (specifically southwest Montana and Lemhi County, ID), where a slow northward creep of moisture will introduce isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Monday and Tuesday: The most impactful weather of the week arrives Monday into Tuesday. Model guidance highlights a robust surge of subtropical moisture pushing into the region, driving precipitable water (PWAT) values well above normal for early July (near or above 1.0 inch). As a mid-level disturbance tracks through this moisture-rich environment during peak afternoon heating, it will trigger organized showers and thunderstorms. Because of this deep moisture profile, any storms that develop will be highly efficient rainfall producers. Wednesday through Late Week: Once Tuesday`s system clears, the remainder of the week looks warm and relatively uneventful. We will return to a more typical summer pattern, with near-daily chances for isolated, pop-up afternoon thunderstorms largely confined to the higher terrain of southwest Montana. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail across all Northern Rockies terminals through tonight. The primary operational impact today will be an increase in westerly surface winds as a weather system passing through British Columbia flattens the upper-level ridge. Terminals can expect sustained westerly winds of 10 to 15 knots with afternoon gusts reaching 20 knots, which may generate localized mechanical turbulence for light aircraft along and near elevated terrain. These gusty winds will decouple and rapidly diminish by dusk, resulting in light, terrain-driven winds and mostly clear skies for the overnight hours into Sunday morning. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

440 FXUS65 KBOI 041200 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 600 AM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot weather expected through Independence Day holiday weekend. - Slight chance of thunderstorms over central ID mountains, southeast OR, and far southwest ID late Sunday, with chances expanding area-wide Monday. - Hot and dry with periods of breezy conditions through next week. && .SHORT TERM /Through Monday Night/... Issued 335 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2026 An upper level ridge centered over the Southern Plains/Four Corners region will build north today and Sunday. The ridge and southwest flow aloft will bring hot temperatures to the area, with high temperatures increasing 5-8 degrees today and another couple of degrees on Sunday. This will place high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s in the lower elevations, with the hottest locations approaching 100 degrees on Sunday. In Boise, there is about a 30% chance of reaching triple digits. In the mountain valleys, highs will be in the 80s to lower 90s. Skies today will be mostly sunny with some afternoon cumulus over the higher terrain. However, there will be a stable layer aloft preventing further development into showers or thunderstorms. By Sunday, forecast soundings indicate this layer will be removed with an increase in mid-level moisture. This will allow for a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms to develop over the higher terrain across southeast Oregon, far southwest Idaho, and the central Idaho mountains. Due to limited moisture, lightning and gusty outflow winds will be the primary threats, with gusts 40-60 mph possible. Outside of storms, expect breezy conditions across eastern Oregon this evening with gusts 20-35 mph, becoming more widespread Sunday. A weak shortwave trough will move across the area Sunday night and Monday. The trough will continue a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight across eastern Oregon and far western Idaho, with additional development on Monday afternoon across the higher terrain. The trough will also reduce high temperatures by 3-5 degrees and bring breezy conditions. && .LONG TERM /Tuesday through Saturday/... Issued 335 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2026 A 10-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue into Tuesday over the higher terrain as enough moisture lingers under southwesterly flow. The flow aloft will transition to westerly Wednesday and Thursday as a trough moves by to the north, pushing moisture to the east. Additionally, winds will become breezy and by Thursday, temperatures will cool to around normal. For Friday into the weekend, the Four Corners high is expected to strengthen and build north while a trough deepens off the coast. Southwest flow will bring increasing temperatures and breezy conditions. Currently, ensembles slightly favor some influence from the trough, keeping temperatures in check. However, if the ridge builds further west, very hot temperatures would develop across the area over the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z Saturday through Sunday/... Issued 544 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2026 VFR. A few cumulus over the higher terrain and along the Nevada border this afternoon and evening, otherwise clear skies. High density altitude in the afternoon/evening due to heat. Surface winds: variable 10 kt or less, becoming SW-NW 5-15 kt in the afternoon. NW gusts 15-25 kt KBKE to KONO this evening. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 10-20 kt. KBOI...VFR under clear skies. Surface winds: SE 5-10 kt, then NW 7-12 kt in the afternoon, becoming variable less than 10 kt overnight. Sunday Outlook...Mainly VFR. Isolated thunderstorms over SE Oregon, far SW Idaho, and the central Idaho mountains late afternoon and evening. High density altitude in the afternoon and evening due to heat. Gusty outflow winds from showers and thunderstorms up to 50 kt. Surface winds: W-NW 5-15 kt. NW gusts 20-30 kt KBKE to KONO and near KMUO in the evening. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....ST SHORT TERM...ST LONG TERM....ST

387 FXUS65 KLKN 040708 AAA AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Elko NV 1208 AM PDT Sat Jul 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Warming trend this weekend into early next week * Potential exists for isolated showers and thunderstorms both Monday afternoon and Tuesday afternoon * Moderate risk for heat-realted illnesses Friday afternoon && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Friday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Model simulations are depicting a slow rise in heights this Independence Day. This will result in increasing afternoon high temperatures. Overall temperatures will warm by 3 to 6 degrees or so versus high temperatures yesterday. Readings will be in the low to mid 90s, with a few of the warmer locales seeing the upper 90s. Skies will remain mostly sunny though the afternoon with light winds. Look for quiet overnight conditions with lows in the 50s with light winds. Height rises are expected to maximize Sunday, with very warm afternoon temperatures. Highs will make it into the mid to upper 90s across much of the area. Winds will be breezy during the afternoon, especially across central Nevada with occasional gusts to 20 mph out of the south. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s. An upper level ridge circulation is forecast to develop across the four-corners region Monday. This will bring a south to southwest flow across Northern and Central Nevada. Precipitable water values will be around two-thirds to three-quarters of an inch. Isolated thunderstorms are possible both Monday afternoon and Tuesday afternoon, with storms generally trending more dry than wet. Highs will be warm, with readings in the mid 90s and lows in the 50s and 60s. Winds will be breezy during the afternoon with gusts of 20 to 25 mph in Central Nevada, though minimum relative humidity values will be in the teens. The upper ridge will be suppressed and move west, as an upper trough treks across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies of the United States Tuesday and Wednesday. As the flow is expected to turn more to the southwest, a slightly drier air mass is expected to filter east. This will keep isolated thunderstorms mainly across Eastern Nevada Tuesday afternoon, with dry conditions Wednesday. Highs will be in the 90s during both afternoons with lows in the 50s. Thursday and Friday, look for dry conditions both days as the models show ridge intensifying. This will bring relatively dry conditions, with temperatures warming again into the mid to upper 90s by Friday. Overnight lows will be in the 50s. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence regarding warming temperatures this weekend into early next week. Low to moderate confidence of an upcoming active pattern as subtropical moisture tries to move north Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions across all terminals over the next 24 hour period. Winds will be generally light at or below 10KT, with occasional gusts to 20KT. AMD NOT SKED for KEKO due to possible communications issue. && .FIRE WEATHER... Warm afternoon temperatures will this weekend. By the afternoon hours this Independence day, high temperatures will be two to four degrees above normal for this time of year. Maximum temperatures will remain above seasonal values each afternoon Sunday through Thursday. A subtropical moisture push from the south may make its way northward into Northern and Central Nevada early next week. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 86