975 FXUS66 KSEW 212205 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 305 PM PDT Sat Mar 21 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Calmer weather is in store for the rest of this weekend, with area rivers continuing to recede into Sunday. A weak system will brush the north coast later today, with dry conditions elsewhere. More active weather returns to the area by the middle of the week for more rain, high elevation snow and gusty winds. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Clearer skies and drier weather are forecast for much of the area over the weekend. A decaying system will brush the north Pacific coast today, but the broader region should stay dry. Temperatures will be in the low 50s this weekend, with lows in the upper 20s in the Cascade foothills and mid 30s in the lowlands. Continued dry weather is expected into Monday, but that will likely be the last calm day for at least the first half of the week as another system is expected to arrive early Tuesday morning and last into Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A strong low pressure system is forecast to move into the coastal waters early Tuesday morning and bring about another round of rain (although less rain than the system from last week), higher elevation snow, and more notably, the potential for stronger winds across western Washington. Some of the forthcoming detail on this system is very dependent on the track of the low pressure system. QPF from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning seems to be only on the order of around a half of an inch for most lowland locations, and upward of an inch or two in the mountains. Stronger southerly winds are likely to pick up on Tuesday morning, and peak late that afternoon. NBM 50th percentile winds show gust potential in Puget Sound up to 35 mph, with gusts to 45-50 mph along the coast. This can and will change as the track of the low evolves, but confidence is higher on elevated winds for Tuesday afternoon and evening. Winds gradually decrease into Wednesday, with rain showers lingering throughout the day. Showers taper and scatter by Thursday and Friday, but low pressure looks to continue to be the dominant feature in the NE Pacific until hints of ridging emerge by late in the week and next weekend. 21 && .AVIATION... Westerly flow aloft will prevail tonight and an embedded shortwave will move through the area late tonight into early Sunday. Conditions across the area terminals have rebounded to VFR across the area, with cloud cover mostly scattering out across the central Sound and only a few lingering showers remaining persistent in the vicinity of Hood Canal. Expect VFR conditions to prevail through tonight. Ceilings will then gradually lower later tonight into early Sunday morning as a dissipating cold front moves across the area. While most spots will remain VFR, a few could see briefly see cigs dip down to MVFR. Light showers will be possible as the system makes its way through the area, especially for terminals along the coast and across the North Interior (KHQM, KCLM, KBLI), but expect many spots to remain dry. Winds are mostly light and variable across the Puget Sound terminals, but are expected to transition to the south/southwest by late afternoon. Winds across the Sound are persisting at generally 6 kt or less. KCLM and KHQM are the exceptions, with westerly winds persisting at 8-12 kts. Gusts to 20 kt are possible through the remainder of the afternoon at KCLM, before winds ease to 6-8 kt. KSEA...VFR conditions at the terminal are expected to persist through the TAF period. Cigs will gradually lower overnight as a weak front approaches the area, but will likely remain VFR, with showers not likely to make it into the terminal. Winds will persist out of the south/southwest at 4-7 kts. 14 && .MARINE... A dissipating frontal system will move across the area waters tonight into early Sunday. Wind gusts across the northwestern portion of the coastal waters may briefly increase to near Small Craft Advisory criteria in the vicinity of the front, but do not expect gusts to be widespread or frequent enough to warrant any product issuance at this time. Seas will persist between 6-9 ft tonight into Sunday. High pressure will then build in the wake of the frontal system on Sunday and remain situated across the area waters through Monday. A stronger, deepening low pressure system will move into the northeastern Pacific on Tuesday and swing a frontal system across the area waters. While uncertainty remains in regards to the exact track of the system, it has the potential to bring strong winds and building seas to the Washington waters. At this time, the most likely solution has winds reaching gale-force across the coastal waters and the Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca on Tuesday. Seas will build towards 17-20 ft across the coastal waters, with the latest GEFS guidance indicating roughly a 40-50% chance of seas building to greater than 20 ft over portions of the coastal waters by Tuesday night. 14 && .HYDROLOGY... A number of rivers are still in varying degrees of flood stage today, but all are still receding and will fall below flood by Sunday night. Additional flooding is not expected, with only small rises expected out of the system arriving Tuesday into Wednesday. Additionally, the landslide SPS was cancelled, though the threat of isolated slides cannot be ruled out over the next one to two days as soils continue to drain. 21 && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...None. && $$

134 FXUS66 KPQR 212143 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 243 PM PDT Sat Mar 21 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Light rain showers continue early Saturday morning, clearing by 9 AM. Dry weather and near normal high temperatures through Monday with morning low temperatures in the 30s, producing widespread frost Saturday and Sunday nights. A weather system brings widespread rain and breezy winds Tuesday into Wednesday along with light Cascades snow Tuesday night into Wednesday. No snow or flooding impacts expected. Dry weather returns Thursday into Friday. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Monday Night...Overall, minimal changes to the forecast as models continue to hold consistency regarding zonal flow through Monday. Satellite imagery shows only a few clouds within the southern Willamette Valley and high clouds over the waters this afternoon. The clearing will set the stage for overnight cooling which is still on track for decreasing low temperatures. Ensembles show around a 60-70% chance of overnight lows reaching 34 degrees F from Salem southward inland, around 40% chance in the Greater Portland- Vancouver Metro, around 5% along the coast, and nearly 90+% in the Upper Hood River Valley. With these types of temperatures, low wind speeds, and a stable atmosphere overnight, frost is a concern. While we are not expecting a hard freeze, for sensitive plants frost may become impactful. Fog is also a possibility for areas that remain above 34 degrees F, though confidence is lower in how widespread it will be. Note that NWS Portland will not begin issuing Frost Advisories and Freeze Watches/Warnings for agricultural purposes until April 1st as this is when the growing season begins to ramp up and impacts from frost and freeze conditions become more significant. Settled weather remains through Monday with clouds filling in through the afternoon ahead of an incoming front that arrives on Tuesday.-27 .LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...A closed low pressure pressure will move into the northeast Pacific from the south Pacific on Tuesday ushering in warmer and moist air. Widespread rain and breezy winds are expected to return Tuesday into Wednesday. Latest guidance is hinting at the possibility of another, weaker surface low pressure system and associated upper level shortwave pushing another burst of rain into the region late Wednesday into Thursday morning though there is a lack of consistency between ensemble type. For example the GEPS is showing more members with precipitation, while the ECMWF stays nearly unchanged. It may be that these two incidences merge into one continuous pattern. Uncertainty still remains on exact precipitation amounts into Thursday, though high confidence remains in limited flooding impacts. Breezy winds are also expected with the frontal passage on Tuesday. Strongest winds will be along the coast and coast range where there is a 60-70% chance of maximum wind gusts exceeding 40 mph. Inland, it is less than a 20% chance. One area to watch will be the central Willamette Valley which tends to see higher winds with this northerly direction. The alignment of the pressure gradient is going to be a component to consider. In terms of Cascade snow, the heaviest precipitation is expected to fall ahead of and along the cold front when snow levels are generally higher than pass level. Snow levels will fall quickly after the front passes late Tuesday into Wednesday to around 3500-4500 ft. However, the lowest snow levels will be in SW WA Cascades with snow levels rising moving south into the central OR Cascades. As showers will continue into Wednesday, there is the potential for some accumulating snow, though due to the current sun angle along with warmer road temperatures, it might be difficult for much accumulation in scattered showers. Snow levels will continue falling through Wednesday, especially Wednesday night, falling to around 2000-3000 ft by Thursday morning. The 10th percentile (only 10% chance of snow levels this low) does indicate snow levels could fall as low as 500-1500 ft by Thursday morning. However, if precipitation really is decreasing by this time, then there will be limited precipitation to even cause snow. Only a few ensemble members suggest any kind of accumulating snow in the interior lowlands like around Portland, and generally less than an inch. NBM probabilities for 6 inches of snow or more in a 48-hour period ending at 5am PDT Thursday continue to back this expectation up, as chances are only around 5% at Willamette and Santiam Passes, and 10% along highway 26 near Government Camp. By Thursday afternoon into Friday, the weather system is expected to move out of the area with upper level flow becoming more zonal. Expecting dry conditions with clearing skies by midday Thursday, which could allow for temperatures to warm into the upper 50s on Thursday and right around 60 on Friday and into the mid 60s on Saturday for the interior lowlands. If you`re someone who loves the warm weather, probabilities for maximum temperatures of 70 degrees have lingered in the 20-30% range for the Willamette Valley. Though, that is still quite far out to have any level of confidence. But, given the overall pattern, it`s not out of the question. -27/03 && .AVIATION...Satellite imagery and terminal observations as of early Saturday afternoon depicts predominately VFR conditions with a mix of SCT/BKN clouds as stratus begins to burn off from daytime heating. VFR conditions prevail across the region with high clouds as dry westerly flow persists. Tomorrow morning after 09-12z Sun, a weak front will brush far northwest Washington. While impacts are not expected for the majority of our area due to this front tracking north, CIGs will trend low-end VFR Sunday morning at KAST along with a westerly wind shift. Elsewhere, winds remain northerly to northwesterly and under 10 kt throughout the TAF period, with occasional gusts up to 20 kt along the central Oregon coast (KONP) through 01-03z Sun. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR with high clouds through the TAF period. Northwesterly winds under 10 kt today, becoming variable and under 5 kt tonight. -10 && .MARINE...High pressure over the waters will maintain northerly winds through Monday. The next very strong ebb will occur around 730 AM Sunday, so a Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the the Columbia River Bar between 5-10 AM Sunday as the ebb builds seas to around 8 ft along the Main Channel of the Bar. A thermal trough develops along the southern Oregon coast Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning, tightening pressure gradients across the waters south of Cape Falcon. This will lead to breezier northerly winds with gusts up to 25 kt; therefore, a Small Craft Advisory has been issued for all waters south of Cape Falcon from 2 PM Sunday through at least 5 AM Monday. Northerly winds may last longer for the outer waters beyond 10 NM offshore, so the Small Craft Advisory for these zones will go through 8 AM Monday. Seas fall to 5-6 ft tonight, re-building to 8-9 ft at 11 sec as wind waves increase from the breezy northerly winds. The next robust weather system returns Tuesday into Wednesday. This system will bring a return of breezy southerly winds across all waters. Current guidance suggests high confidence (90%+ chance) for widespread and frequent small craft wind gusts of 21 kt or greater, and a 35-55% chance for widespread and frequent Gale force wind gusts of 34 kt or greater on Tuesday. Chances for isolated Gale force wind gusts are around 75-90%, with the highest chances beyond 20 NM offshore. Latest guidance suggests the strongest winds occur between 8 AM to 5 PM Tuesday. Seas on Tuesday and Wednesday are also expected to build to around 13-16 ft in response to increasing wind waves along with an increasing westerly swell. There`s a 30-60% chance seas could exceed 15 ft with a 5-15% chance for seas exceeding 20 ft. Chances increase from south to north, peaking across the waters north of Cape Falcon and mainly beyond 40 NM offshore. -10/03 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ253- 273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

069 FXUS66 KMFR 212144 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 244 PM PDT Sat Mar 21 2026 .DISCUSSION... Daytime highs today cool 5 to 20 degrees from the warm conditions observed through much of the past week thanks to a weak cold front flattening an upper ridge. Roseburg hit 77 degrees on Friday and is yet to hit 60 degrees today. Medford is seeing the mid 60s this afternoon after reaching 79 degrees on Friday. Similarly, basins across Lake and Klamath counties are staying in the low to mid 60s after approaching 80 degrees. Areas in Siskiyou and Modoc County are seeing slightly warmer temperatures given the limited impact of that front, with highs staying in the high 60s to low 70s. Clouds are banking in some west side valleys and developing over eastern terrain, but precipitation was limited to the coast this morning and has dissipated. Cold air behind the front will bring cool but not entirely unseasonable overnight lows tonight. Lows for most areas west of the Cascades and into Modoc County are expected to be in the low to mid 30s, with Klamath and Lake County basins possibly getting into the low to mid 20s. While Advisory products are not being issued for tonight, sensitive plants or animals may still be affected by these conditions The ridge rebounds somewhat as the weak front moves eastward, keeping warm temperatures and dry conditions in the forecast for Sunday and Monday. Daytime highs remain 5 to 10 degrees above normal across the area to start the week ahead. Generally, this will mean mid 60s to low 70s for valleys and basins across the area with slightly cooler temperatures at higher elevations. Dry conditions are a concern for this period, with daytime minimum RHs in the 15- 25% range east of the Cascades and into Siskiyou County to start the week. At this time, winds look to be at normal speeds while RH values are at their lowest and RHs look to improve when winds pick up on Tuesday. Even if these conditions do not overlap to reach Red Flag criteria, dry daytime conditions and possible moderate overnight recoveries could represent elevated fire weather concerns. These conditions will continue to be a focus of forecasting and discussions to start the week. A warm front looks to move over the ridge and across the area on Tuesday, but the northeast path of the front will keep precipitation light and west of the Cascades. Coastal areas in Curry County could see around half an inch of rainfall while those parts of Coos County are forecast to see between a quarter inch to one-third of an inch. Precipitation expectations for other areas are limited, and will be overall uneventful. Gusty winds are expected at higher elevations across the area, with those gusts possibly reaching Advisory criteria over Lake County terrain. Confidence in this is still moderate, with the best chances along Winter Rim and the Warner Mountains. Per NBM probabilistic guidance, even these "best" chances are in the 30-60% range for gusts to reach the threshold of 45 mph. Behind Tuesday`s front, warm and unimpactful weather is in the forecast. Light showers may continue over the coast and Cascades into Wednesday morning but should clear out by the afternoon. Warm and dry conditions are present in ensemble guidance and deterministic imagery through the end of next week, but how warm is questionable. ECMWF outcomes have the current ridge weakening and the axis moving to the east, allowing for zonal flow and temperatures a few degrees above normal. GFS imagery shows the ridge staying in place and redeveloping, which would bring warmer temperatures. The absence of precipitation for Wednesday into next Sunday is nearly unanimous between the model meteograms. -TAD && .AVIATION...21/18Z TAFs...Light precipitation along and near the coast will continue to diminish this morning. This moisture in the lower levels is producing MVFR conditions impacting North Bend and Roseburg, but will improve later this morning with VFR conditions anticipated. In fact, all the terminals should spend a majority of this cycle in VFR, but there will be some low to mid clouds at times which could produce MVFR briefly. As the front passes stronger northerly winds will be present at the coast, and east side is expected to get breezy northwest winds as well. By late this afternoon, high clouds will likely be common across the region leading to VFR conditions. -Hermansen && .MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Saturday, March 21, 2026...A thermal trough is strengthening today, bringing gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas to the waters from Cape Blanco south. Brief gales are possible for areas from Gold Beach south in the late afternoons and early evenings today and tomorrow. A Hazardous Seas Warning will remain south of Cape Blanco through early Monday, with small craft advisory conditions north of Cape Blanco. The outlook is for conditions to briefly improve Monday afternoon and evening. Advisory strength winds are likely on Tuesday as a cold front swings through the waters. Gales are also possible if the front is strong enough, especially for areas from Cape Blanco northward on Tuesday. -Hermansen && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356-370. Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376. && $$ TAD/TAD/TAD

600 FXUS66 KEKA 212147 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 247 PM PDT Sat Mar 21 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Dry weather and above average inland temperatures will persist into next week. A weakening front will bring a quick chance for rainfall and a period of increased southerly winds. Otherwise, dry and warm weather will persist. && .DISCUSSION...A weak front passed through the region and brought some accumulating light, coastal drizzle and persistent low clouds over Humboldt and Del Norte counties. Breezy northerly winds developed behind the front. High temperatures are greatly reduced over the interior behind the front as the embedded Desert Southwest ridge of high pressure weakens. Surface pressure is nosing in from the west, and will work to maintain above average inland temperatures. Areas in Southern Mendocino and Lake County will continue to see high temperatures in the high 70s to low 80s, brining some minor HeatRisk. A stronger front will push into the Pacific Northwest early next week, with a trailing portion clipping Northern California. Precipitable water values will be anomalously high (200% above normal), but the front will likely struggle to maintain strength as it descends south against the southern ridge Tuesday through Wednesday. Southerly winds at 925 mb (near 2000 ft) will increase with the front Tuesday. This may bring a period of breezy conditions to some of the North Coast and interior ridges. Probabilities for total rainfall in Del Norte County are only 40%, but a brief period of higher rainfall rates will still be possible is the front maintains better strength. NBM 90% (worst case) 24 hour rainfall does not reach an inch however. Dry warm weather will otherwise persist under high pressure. The next hint of a pattern change toward wetter weather does not arrive until near the end of the month. && .AVIATION...Gusty winds have mixed down, starting a bit earlier than expected at KCEC and KUKI with northerly winds sustained around 15kts gusting 26-30kts. KCEC is expected to have gusts still hanging around 20kts into late evening (~08z) with KUKI gusts easing a bit sooner (~03z). KACV is a bit more protected geographically with sustained winds 10 to 15kts easing tonight by 03z. Cloud cover at the terminals is projected by NBM and HREF to linger around Humboldt bay and south to the halfway point of Cape Mendocino at latitude 40.4 and probably inland to about the longitude -123.8. The post frontal conditions are likely going to have a clearing effect overnight with the exception of the previous area mentioned. Cold cirrus clouds aloft and a slight moisture flux may not be enough to overcome the winds as far as visibility and ceilings go. VFR for our area terminals through the evening and well into Sunday. /EYS && .MARINE...Very hazardous ocean conditions are forecast this weekend. North wind gusts from 34 to 42 kt are highly probable (>80% chance), primarily over the outer waters and inner waters south of Cape Mendocino. A gale warning is in effect. A long fetch of strong northerly winds will generate very steep waves from 10 to 15 feet with periods from 8 to 10 seconds by Saturday afternoon and evening. Waves this large and steep will be capable of capsizing small vessels and mariners are encouraged to remain in port. A hazardous seas warning has been issued for northern inner waters with very steep waves forecast to build to 10 ft or more Sat evening and Sat night. These very steep waves will continue Sunday morning. A secondary ramp up in very steep waves will occur Sunday afternoon and evening for the inners. For the outers, waves will remain very steep and treacherous through at least early Monday morning. Outlook going into next week: Conditions will begin to ease up and subside on Monday with lower seas into Tue. Conditions deteriorate again around mid week as a large mid period W-NW swell arrives and potential for northerly gales increases after frontal passage. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ450. Hazardous Seas Warning until noon PDT Sunday for PZZ450. Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ455. Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ470-475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

901 FXUS66 KMTR 212310 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 410 PM PDT Sat Mar 21 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1257 PM PDT Sat Mar 21 2026 - Cooling trend continues through Sunday - Temperatures near to slightly above seasonal averages next week - Dry weather through the 7 day outlook && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1257 PM PDT Sat Mar 21 2026 (This evening through Sunday) Satellite imagery shows high clouds across the Bay Area and Central Coast as a weak cold front stalls over the North Bay into northern California and promotes a slight onshore flow, while the ridge that gave us the last few days of record-breaking heat flattens and moves off the the east. High temperatures today range from the upper 70s to the middle 80s in the interior valleys, the 70s close to the Bays, and the lower to middle 60s along the Pacific coast. These temperatures are still warmer than the seasonal averages for this time of year, but are still a welcome change of pace from the last week. The high clouds will clear through the evening and overnight hours, and a redeveloping marine layer will allow for some patchy stratus in the coastal regions early Sunday morning. Morning lows will take a dip as the lower elevations reach the upper 40s to the lower 50s, with lows in the middle 50s to lower 60s in the higher elevations. The cooling trend continues through Sunday with more zonal flow developing in the upper levels, with temperatures maybe a few degrees cooler across the region, but conditions remaining similar otherwise. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1257 PM PDT Sat Mar 21 2026 (Sunday night through next Friday) Conditions remain broadly similar through the next week as zonal flow to slight ridging persist across the forecast region. The inland valleys of Monterey and San Benito Counties remain rather warm with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s possible Monday through Wednesday. Otherwise, copying and pasting the temperature outlook for Sunday through the remainder of the 7 day forecast will give you a pretty good idea of what to expect. The next chances for rainfall remain beyond the 7 day outlook, and as the previous forecaster noted, extended range model output suggests a chance for a developing trough pushing a weak low pressure system into the state as March turns into April. A closer look at the ensemble model clusters shows an approximate 50/50 split between the model runs that do show a trough heading into the West Coast and those that keep the slight ridging around. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 409 PM PDT Sat Mar 21 2026 Currently VFR at all terminals. Low to moderate confidence on the return of LIFR conditions to HAF, MRY, and SNS. A dying cold front, which can be identified with the high clouds, is moving through the region towards the southeast. This feature will be the deal breaker on whether or not sub-VFR conditions return tonight. Usually cold fronts act to deepen the marine layer and mix the atmosphere, but the weak nature may do little to the marine layer. Onshore winds will prevail. Haze will reduce slant range visibilities. Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with westerly flow. High confidence in VFR through the TAF period. Westerly winds will prevail. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with westerly flow at MRY and VFR with northwesterly flow at SNS. Low to moderate confidence on LIFR conditions returning to the terminals tonight. Onshore winds will prevail. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 409 PM PDT Sat Mar 21 2026 Fresh and strong breezes with gale force gusts will persist through early Sunday thanks to a weakening cold front. Strongest winds will be over the outer waters and near Point Reyes. The strong winds will lead to steep fresh swell. Winds diminish and seas abate early next week then increase again mid week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10- 60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...DialH LONG TERM....DialH AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...MM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

626 FXUS66 KOTX 212250 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 350 PM PDT Sat Mar 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hydrology: St Joe and Coeur d`Alene Rivers near bankfull with additional small rises into Sunday. Stehekin River falling but levels still high - Next system: Unsettled weather returns Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing valley rain, mountain rain and snow, and breezy to windy conditions && .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather will continue through Monday with colder night temperatures. Unsettled weather is forecast to return Tuesday and Wednesday as the next low pressure system brings valley rain, mountain rain and snow, and breezy to windy conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Monday: Drier air is moving into the region today behind a cold front as noted by surface dewpoints in Central Washington dropping into the teens and 20s, and even single digits in the Methow Valley. As pressure gradients relax tonight and skies clear, temperatures will be much cooler with lows in the 20s to low 30s due to strong radiational cooling. We are not in the climatological growing season yet, but with the mild March it is worth noting that any early bloomers or eager planters will have cold temps to contend with tonight. The dry air persists on Sunday with passing high clouds over northern Washington and Idaho, and seasonal high temperatures in the 50s. On Monday another dry day is in store, but slightly warmer as southwest flow develops ahead of an approaching weather system. Tuesday: This is the wettest day of the 7 day forecast. A moist southwest-northeast frontal boundary takes aim at the region as precipitable water values increase to 200-250% of normal. Thankfully, this boundary is a quick hitter, lasting only 12-18 hours. Thus, while some additional river and stream rises are forecast, the rise is expected to be brief with lower river levels in the Cascades and ID Panhandle compared to those observed this weekend. Snow levels initially start off 3500-5000 feet but quickly rise with the incoming warmer air. NBM shows a 30% chance of 1" or more of snow at Stevens and Sherman Passes before snow level climb. Rainfall amounts are expected to be between 0.25-0.50" inches for Eastern Washington and North Idaho except locally higher near the Cascade crest and ID Panhandle. Less than a tenth of an inch if forecast for most of Central Washington. Wednesday through next Saturday: As a cold front pushes east snow levels fall again with post frontal westerly flow favoring the best chances for snow showers along the Cascade crest and ID Panhandle. Yet the NBM isn`t showing much snow for most of our mountains, with the Cascade crest passes most favored for snow. The NBM from 5 AM Wednesday to 5 AM Saturday for Stevens Pass is showing a 70% chance for 4" or more, 50% chance for 6" or more, and 15% chance for 12" or more. Finally, Wednesday has the potential to be a windy day behind the cold front. For the typical windy spots (Wenatchee area, Columbia Basin, West Plains, Palouse) the NBM is carrying a 50-70% chance of gusts exceeding 40 MPH. JW && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: Drier air will continue to move in today behind a cold front. Mainly flat cumulus over Eastern Washington and North Idaho will dissipate around 02z with the loss of daytime heating. Breezy winds will continue into the early evening and then decrease overnight as well as pressure gradients decrease over the region and winds decouple. VFR conditions will continue for all TAF sites through Sunday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions for all TAF sites through 00z Monday. JW ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 29 52 32 57 41 51 / 0 0 0 0 10 90 Coeur d`Alene 30 50 32 56 40 50 / 0 0 0 0 20 100 Pullman 30 50 35 55 43 53 / 0 0 0 0 10 90 Lewiston 34 55 37 60 46 58 / 0 0 0 0 10 80 Colville 24 55 30 57 38 50 / 0 0 0 0 10 100 Sandpoint 30 50 31 53 38 46 / 10 0 0 0 20 100 Kellogg 31 49 34 56 41 50 / 0 0 0 0 20 100 Moses Lake 30 59 34 60 43 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 70 Wenatchee 34 57 35 57 42 53 / 0 0 0 0 10 80 Omak 30 56 34 58 41 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 90 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

588 FXUS66 KPDT 212353 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 452 PM PDT Sat Mar 21 2026 .UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Minor river flooding in south-central Washington through Monday - Elevated river levels in south-central Washington continue through next week after flooding subsides Monday - Areas of frost overnight in the Columbia Basin and along the Blue Mountain foothills && .DISCUSSION... Clear to partly cloudy skies are present across the majority of the forecast area this afternoon. The air mass is quite dry, PWATs of 0.2-0.3", and some of the dry air from aloft is mixing to the surface. Dew points in the single digits to teens have surfaced in places, notably along the lee of the Washington Cascades as well as north-central Oregon. Elsewhere, dew points have crashed relative to the early morning, but only in the 20s. Anticipating these low dew points will become more widespread through the remainder of the afternoon and evening as dry air continues to mix to the surface. Tonight, mostly clear skies coupled with the aforementioned dry air mass will facilitate chilly temperatures. Areas of near- to sub-freezing temperatures are forecast for the lowlands. While not atypical for late March, they come on the heels of an anomalously warm stretch. Coupled with the fact that flowers and trees are blooming and budding several weeks early across parts of the forecast area, have opted to inject areas of frost into the gridded forecast where temperatures and relative humidity are supportive. Will note, the very dry air mass has the potential to hinder frost formation if surface dew points remain low enough, but thinking the recent precipitation will keep enough moisture near the surface to have at least patchy to areas of frost in cold-prone locations. Sunday, mostly dry conditions accompanied by near-seasonal temperatures are anticipated beneath quasi-zonal flow aloft. Very dry air aloft (single digit to teens dew points) is expected to mix to the surface in places, but the lack of significant wind should limit fire weather concerns. Ensemble NWP guidance shows a plume of moisture from the Pacific moving into the Pacific Northwest by late Monday. Precipitation chances increase by Monday night as a strong offshore surface low tracks northeast towards British Columbia. Its attendant frontal system will move inland Tuesday into Wednesday, with perhaps another cold frontal boundary in its wake later Wednesday into Wednesday night as a 500-mb shortwave moves overhead. The early-week system will also usher in breezy to windy conditions across the forecast area. Looking ahead, there is still significant uncertainty in details of the 500-mb height pattern, but a building ridge is favored (60-70 percent of ensemble members) and mostly dry weather is forecast later Thursday through Friday. 86 && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR conditions prevail for all sites. Winds will be gusting at 20-25 kts through 02Z this evening for KRDM/KBDN and 05-06Z tonight for KDLS/KYKM. Otherwise, the remaining sites will have winds less than 12 kts. Feaster/97 && .HYDROLOGY... River flooding from snowmelt and previous rainfall is ongoing for the Yakima and Naches rivers in south-central Washington. These rivers have crested, or will crest this afternoon, for most locations in the Yakima and Kittitas valleys. Locations downstream towards the eastern end of the Yakima Valley and the lower Columbia Basin have yet to crest, and the Yakima at Kiona is forecast to crest between late Sunday afternoon and early Monday morning. Looking ahead, several forecast points along the Yakima and Naches rivers, including those at Easton, Cliffdell, Naches, and perhaps Umtanum, are then anticipated to remain above action stage through the week according to the latest forecasts from the Northwest River Forecast Center in Portland. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 31 56 34 60 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 35 56 38 60 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 34 60 35 63 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 29 56 34 59 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 33 59 34 62 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 29 52 31 55 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 23 60 30 63 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 28 58 35 64 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 28 61 35 66 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 34 60 38 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...97 HYDROLOGY...86

730 FXUS65 KREV 211900 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1200 PM PDT Sat Mar 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Heatwave continues into next week. * Breezy winds this afternoon will bring recreation impacts to lakes in northwestern Nevada. * The forecast remains dry through next week, but there are hints of cooler and wetter weather to kick off April. && .DISCUSSION... * I`d say rinse and repeat, but we aren`t seeing any moisture to speak of. Bottom line: The unusual March heat continues. While it`s not as hot as say yesterday when we set a new all-time record high of 88 degrees for the month of March at KRNO, high temperatures continue to be near or above record levels through the middle of next week. * Our slight "cooldown" this weekend is thanks to an area of low pressure brushing through the northwest CONUS, leading to a flattening of the potent ridge that is entrenched over the west. With this comes an uptick in afternoon westerly breezes today, with the strongest gusts for areas of northwest Nevada north of US- 50. With wind gusts around 35 mph, Pyramid Lake and Rye Patch/Lahontan Reservoirs will see choppy conditions this afternoon. * Ensembles and AI deterministic forecast models are hinting at troughing moving into the west to start April. While roughly 80% of meteograms are showing cooler conditions and some rain and even mountain snow, this signal continues to be pushed back. We first saw it showing up around March 25-27, then each day it was later and later, now around April 1-3. Time will tell... -Dawn && .AVIATION... * Potential exists for mountain wave turbulence today with the increased FL100 winds around 25-30 kts. Otherwise, anticipate wind gusts of 20-30 kts at terminal sites 19z-03z this afternoon. * Ongoing heatwave isn`t quite hot enough for major density altitude concerns, but it`s still abnormal to even need to consider than one in March! * VFR conditions to continue with typical diurnal wind flow. -Dawn && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening NVZ004. CA...None. && $$

776 FXUS66 KSTO 211946 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1246 PM PDT Sat Mar 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight decrease in temperatures this weekend but temperatures continue to be 10 to 20 degrees above normal. Daily record highs will be possibly again through mid week. - Breezy winds Sunday western side of Sacramento Valley and again next Thursday otherwise dry and hot weather continues. && .DISCUSSION... ...Next 7 days... Dry and unseasonably warm high temperatures will continue across the area for the next 7 days, as upper level high pressure continues to amplify and remain relatively stationary with slight movements to the east. This subtle shift will allow high temperatures to cool slightly for the next several days, however afternoon high temperatures are still going to run around 10 to 20 degrees warmer than normal for the beginning of Spring. Tomorrow as the ridge continues to wobble eastward, northerly winds will strengthen with some gusts along and west of the I-5 corridor around 20-30 mph. Later next week, ridging continues to be the dominant synoptic weather feature, however the ridge will be located south of the Four Corners Region, allowing another period of northerly winds to develop across the Valley. Forecast wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph along the I-5 corridor, as well as gusts of 15-25 mph through the rest of the region and will allow daytime humidity values to fall into the mid to upper teens in the northern Sacramento Valley. Some relief may be on the horizon, as ensembles are showing an eventual breakdown of the ridge with a potential PacNW trough forming by the end of March/early April. Too early to think about what that means for temperatures or any needed precipitation, but something to keep an eye on as we move through the rest of March. If you are outside or planning outdoor activities this weekend into next week, please remember to drink plenty of water and wear sunscreen. As this is an anomalous heat event, individuals may not be fully acclimated to the emerging heat. Local waterways are also running very cold due to snowmelt. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions next 24 hours at Valley TAF sites. Surface winds below 12 kts at all sites except in the northern Sacramento Valley where northerly wind gusts of up 25 kts begin around 15z Sunday. Slight chance (~10%) of BR/MVFR conditions in northern San Joaquin Valley between 12z and 16z Sunday. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

778 FXUS65 KMSO 211800 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1200 PM MDT Sat Mar 21 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Cold front moves through the region today, leading to cooling trend, gusty winds, and scattered showers. - Mild temperatures much of this upcoming week, with next system bringing precipitation Tuesday into Wednesday. A Pacific cold front is tracking southeastward across the Northern Rockies today, with gusty west-northwest winds continuing through the afternoon. Peak gusts this afternoon will reach 25-40 mph across valley areas with gusts of 40-55 mph over mountain and backcountry areas. Unseasonably warm temperatures are causing mountain snowmelt. Combined with an additional 0.25 to 0.50 inch of precipitation, this creates a heightened risk for flooding of small streams and creeks. As a result we expanded the current flood watch from Lincoln County to also include Sanders and Mineral Counties. Currently, only the Fischer River near Libby is forecast into action stage. Additionally, there is concern for a continuation of rock falls and slides. The air mass following the cold front is very dry and the Northern Rockies will remain breezy through Tuesday. Due to low humidities and breezy conditions fire weather risks will be elevated, please use caution with outdoor burning. Tuesday our next system arrives, with increasing prefrontal winds gusting 25 to 35 mph in the mountains and precipitation beginning late afternoon. Snow levels quickly rise 5000 to 6000 feet, so any winter travel hazards will be limited to a slushy inch or two at mountain passes. && .AVIATION...Cold front is currently draped over north central Idaho up into Glacier NP and will be quickly pushing through the remainder of the Northern Rockies this afternoon. A band of light rain is associated with the front with significant dry air behind the front. Gusty southwest winds ahead of the front will quickly become west to northwest after frontal passage with gusts up to 35 knots at area terminals. The winds are expected to diminish after sunset. Fog development on Sunday morning is expected to be fairly limited to the extent of drier air that is being mixed to the surface behind the front. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for Flathead/Mission Valleys...Kootenai/Cabinet Region...Lower Clark Fork Region. ID...None. && $$

597 FXUS65 KBOI 220011 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 611 PM MDT Sat Mar 21 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold frontal passage Saturday will bring cooler temperatures, light mountain showers, and gusty W-NW winds through the evening. - Warm, slightly above normal temperatures will continue the middle of next week. - Another cold front will move through the region by the middle of next week, bringing mountain showers and cooler temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /Through Monday Night/... Issued 224 PM MDT SAT MAR 21 2026 A weak cold front is continuing to push southeastward across the forecast area this evening. While the front is not well defined in surface observations, it is clearly demarcated by a developing cumulus field on satellite imagery. The primary impact has been elevated winds this afternoon and evening, with wind gusts reaching up to 40 mph in wind-prone areas. Precipitation chances remain low as the deepest moisture stays to our north, though a 10 to 20 percent chance of light rain showers will continue for northern portions of Baker and Valley counties through tonight. The ridge begins to build back over the area on Sunday. This will shift the cooler zonal flow further north, keeping our region dry. Temperatures will remain above normal through the period. By Monday night, an atmospheric river associated with a low off the British Columbia coast will begin to approach the Pacific Northwest. While this system will attempt to push moisture and colder air into the region, it will face resistance from the persistent ridge over the Desert Southwest. Guidance today continues to trend warmer and drier; consequently, any precipitation through Monday night is expected to remain light and confined mostly to the higher terrain of Baker County and the mountains of southwest Idaho. && .LONG TERM /Tuesday through Saturday/... Issued 224 PM MDT SAT MAR 21 2026 The large upper level ridge over western US the will flatten out a bit allowing a more zonal west to east upper level flow to bring moisture into the area on Tuesday and Wednesday. The best chances for precipitation will be across the northern half of our forecast area where a 50 to 60 percent chance of rain exists. The southern half of the forecast area will remain dry. The zonal flow pattern should allow temperatures to cool down a bit Wednesday through Thursday, though still remaining above 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Most models show the ridge beginning to rebuild over the western US again by Friday and continue that pattern into the weekend. The forecast for southwestern Idaho and southeastern Oregon responds to that scenario and shows a warming trend starting on Friday with dry weather. && .AVIATION /00Z Sunday through Monday/... Issued 556 PM MDT SAT MAR 21 2026 VFR conditions with scattered mid-to-high cloud coverage this evening and overnight. Breezy NW winds 10-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, lowering to 10 kt or less after sunset, except for KMUO, KTWF, and KJER. Winds aloft at 10K feet: W 25-30 kt. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds NW 10-15 kt with gusts to 25 kt, lowering down to 10 kt or less after sunset. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....JY SHORT TERM...JDS LONG TERM....JB

535 FXUS65 KLKN 211931 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1231 PM PDT Sat Mar 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Record to near record warmth is expected across all of Northern and Central Nevada each afternoon through next Saturday * Dry weather will persist through next weekend * Sunday, as well as Thursday and Friday of next week will be slightly cooler, but temperatures look to rebound quickly afterward. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Saturday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Anomalously strong early Spring upper level ridge of high pressure will remain the dominant player for weather through the forecast period. This ridge currently situated over the Sonora Desert of Arizona and northern Mexico will keep temperatures 25 to 30 degrees above average this week. This will continue the streak of seeing near record to record high temperatures across northern and eastern Nevada through at least next Saturday. There will due to a few disturbances in the westerly flow that will help cool things of for a day or two during this period, However even during those days temperatures will still be near record territory. The first of these cooler days will be Sunday as a upper trough flattens the ridge a bit allowing for increased upper level clouds to move across northern NV in the westerly flow. Temperatures Sunday will be about 5 to 9 degrees cooler than Saturday afternoon ranging in the upper 60s to upper 70s. Monday through Wednesday the ridge restrengthens, sending temperatures back into the upper 70s to upper 80s. Winds Saturday through Wednesday afternoon will be out of the west to southwest at 10 to 25 mph with occasional gusts up to 35 mph possible. Thursday and Friday will see another weak upper trough transit southern Nevada around the periphery of the ridge. This will again help push the ridge slightly east over the Rio Grande Valley of far southern New Mexico, as well as flatten the ridge briefly allowing for height falls across northern and central NV and increasing the upper level clouds. Temperatures will be about 5 to 10 degrees cooler, ranging into into the upper 60s to upper 70s both days. However, again the ridge will be quick to rebuild NW allowing for a quick recovery of temperatures back into the mid 70s to mid 80s for next weekend. The good news is even with the very warm day time temperatures, overnight lows will average into the mid 30s to mid 40s, While anomalously warm themselves, it still allows for good recovery from heat stresses accumulated during the day. For Winds during the Thursday through Saturday period, there will be a shift Thursday and Friday to a northwest direction, and again Saturday to be out of the NE. Speeds will be similar at 5 to 15 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph possible. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence for near record, to record setting temperatures for each day Saturday through next weekend. There is high confidence in the continuation of dry conditions through next weekend. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are forecast through Sunday evening with breezy west to southwest winds of 10KT to 20KT with gusts up to 30KT possible. Increasing mid to upper level clouds will lower CIGs to a minimum of 15kFT. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...98 AVIATION...98