388 FXUS66 KSEW 120502 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 902 PM PST Wed Nov 11 2026 .UPDATE... Forecast on track this evening. Record highs in many locations over the interior today. The high of 69 in Bellingham tied for the second warmest November day on record. Cold front remaining stalled off the coast Thursday but more cloud cover over the area along with weaker southerly surface gradients will keep highs in the lower 60s. Could see another record high in Seattle. The record is 61 set in 2018. What is left of the cold front getting pushed inland by an approaching stronger system Friday. Updated aviation, marine and hydro sections below. Felton && .SYNOPSIS...A warm front has introduced a very mild air mass to Western Washington with near record high temperatures expected today. A cold front will stall offshore into Thursday with mainly dry conditions for interior areas and light rain at times near the coast. A series of frontal systems will bring a return of widespread rain and occasionally windy conditions Friday into early next week. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...Western Washington sits in the warm sector today with a warm front north into B.C. and a cold front stalled offshore. We are seeing very mild conditions with temperatures in the 60s and a few spots breaking daily highs by a degree or two. Meanwhile, it`s still windy along the north coast and north interior but winds will be easing this afternoon - the Wind Advisory will expire at 4 PM today as planned. The cold front remains stalled offshore on Thursday with another mild day planned for western WA. Forecast highs are in the lower 60s or around 5-10 degrees warmer than average. A few light showers may clip the coast, otherwise it`ll be dry in the interior. A deep, stacked, low pressure center will shift E/SE toward WA on Friday, slowly pushing a front inland. While most of the rain will be along the coast, the interior will also see light accumulations. A tight pressure gradient will lead to gusty winds along the coast with gusts to 35-45 MPH. It`ll be gusty too across the Cascades, gaps, and foothills with east winds to 20-30 MPH. In addition, high tides and lower pressure may lead to minor coastal flooding Friday morning. The main area is the shoreline and beaches around the Salish Sea during the time of high tide. 33 && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...Low pressure (from Friday) will shift inland Friday night into Saturday, with another strong Pacific frontal system right at its heels. Coastal flooding remains a concern on Saturday morning too. This second system will bring more lowland rain and gusty winds to the area Saturday/Saturday night. Highest winds will be along the coast with S/SE gusts to 40-50 MPH. It will be windy in the interior as well with winds 20-40 MPH. Troughing keeps the area wet through Sunday. Rain-wise, we`re looking at another 1-2" along the coast this weekend with 0.50-1.00" in the interior. Additional rainfall in the Olympics will keep the Skokomish River running high with flooding possible. Moving forward, showers continue into Monday with weaker troughing overhead. A weak front heads to our south by midweek. 33 && .AVIATION... A stalled cold front will remain offshore tonight with shower activity continuing west of the Olympics well into Thursday. Gusty southwest winds continue in the north interior and the coast this evening, but will decrease through tonight and remain out of the south. A high cloud deck will remain intact tonight into Thursday. Only the coast/Olympics/Cascades have significant probabilities for ceilings less than VFR (MVFR for the coast, and IFR/LIFR for the Olympics/Cascades) tonight/Thursday morning. The high cloud deck will be enough to prevent widespread fog from forming into the interior Thursday morning (though isolated pockets in valley areas cannot be ruled out). KSEA...VFR likely to persist through the TAF period. Low chance (5%) of vicinity fog in the morning near the Duwamish River/east of the terminal. Winds: south at around 5 kt. HPR && .MARINE... The gale warning was cancelled early this evening for the east Strait of Juan de Fuca as winds have decreased well below gale/small craft criteria. The warning continues for the northern inland waters through 10 PM (as well as a small craft advisory for the Admiralty Inlet) as gusty winds continue east of Whidbey Island and up into Bellingham this evening. Strong winds will continue to persist across the coastal waters and northern inland waters today as a cold front remains stalled offshore. This front will weaken as it slowly drifts onshore this evening, allowing winds to slowly ease this evening into early Thursday morning. Seas generally around 15 to 18 feet this afternoon will gradually ease to around 12 to 15 feet on Thursday, with severe bar conditions easing to rough into Thursday at Grays Harbor. A pair of strong low pressure systems will move across the coastal waters late Thursday night into Friday, with the second moving through Saturday night into Sunday. Winds will begin to increase across the area waters by the afternoon Thursday. Gales will begin as early as Thursday afternoon, peaking overnight into early Friday morning. Guidance continues to indicate 50-70% chances for storm force gusts over the outer coastal waters, though higher end gale force winds continue to be more likely along the inner coastal waters. A Gale Watch remains in effect, likely to be upgraded with additional Small Craft Advisories elsewhere. Seas once again will build over the coastal waters on Friday. With the low center tracking closer towards our area, that will send the largest waves farther south towards Oregon. That being said, very large seas are expected, with ensemble guidance continuing to show very high confidence in seas above 20 ft by Friday evening, with a 25-35% chance of seas above 25 ft through Saturday morning. Dominant periods will be long but have come down slightly, in the 14-16 second range. Seas look to briefly ease Saturday morning below 20 ft before another system will send another round of large, long period waves on Sunday with high confidence in seas above 20 ft with chances of seas exceeding 25 ft through early Monday. With these systems, slight shifts in the low tracks will determine where the strongest wave generation/dynamic fetch regions will be. While it is looking more likely that the largest waves will be aimed towards Oregon and California from the Friday/Saturday system, the Sunday/Monday system favors a more northward track with the largest waves aimed towards the Washington coast. There is a 5-10% chance of waves exceeding 30 ft at the peak wave height Sunday night. 62/15/HPR && .HYDROLOGY...The Skokomish River is receding and will fall below flood stage around midnight. The river will remain elevated Thursday into Friday then rise back above flood stage later Friday into the weekend with another round of heavy rain over the Olympics. River flooding is not expected on the other rivers in the area in the next 7 days at this time. Felton && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM PST Friday for Grays Harbor Bar. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Thursday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Gale Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Admiralty Inlet. Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. && $$

410 FXUS66 KPQR 120627 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 1027 PM PST Wed Nov 11 2026 Updated aviation discussion. && .SYNOPSIS...High pressure will result in dry conditions for the most locations through Thursday. An exception is the north Oregon and south Washington coast, where some light showers may clip those areas. The next storm system arrives Thursday night into Friday, returning widespread rain and gusty winds along the coast. Expect lingering showers on Saturday before the next system arrives on Sunday. A cooler and wet pattern continues into early next week. Make sure to clear storm drains and gutters of leaves and debris. If you are along the coast, beware of high surf at the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION...Now through Tuesday...Radar imagery and surface observations as of early Wednesday afternoon depicts mostly dry conditions across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington while a continuous band of light rain associated with an atmospheric river moves into the Olympic Peninsula and western British Columbia. The backside of an upper-level ridge centered over the Rockies is keeping the bulk of the precipitation north of our area and keeping us dry today and Thursday. An exception could be the Pacific County and Clatsop County coast, where there remains a 20-40% chance for light showers clipping these area. High temperatures across interior valleys are on track to the reach the mid to upper 60s this afternoon, which is several degrees above normal and could potentially break some records. Thursday will be slightly cooler as ridging gradually breaks down over our area, but highs remain forecast to peak in the low 60s across interior valleys. Late Thursday night into Friday, the next upper-level trough will approach the Pacific Northwest, pushing the first of a series of surface fronts through the region. This front on Friday will bring a return of widespread rain and cooler temperatures by Friday morning, with high confidence (80% chance) that the majority of places will receive at least 0.25" of rain by early Saturday morning. Chances for 24 hour rain totals exceeding 1 inch from early Friday morning to early Saturday morning are around 15-25% along the I-5 corridor, and 30-60% along the coast, with the highest chances from Tillamook southward. This system will also bring breezy winds from the south along the coast with gusts to around 30-40 mph. Chances for wind gusts exceeding 55 mph along the coast have fallen to 10-20%, so widespread power outages or downed trees along the coast appear unlikely. However, it would still be good to secure any loose outdoor items. Winds are also trending weaker along the I-5 corridor, where chances for wind gusts exceeding 40 mph have also fallen to 5-10%. Across the Cascades, snow levels around 5500 to 6500 will keep Cascade passes snow-free on Friday. This system exits the region by Friday night, with showers lingering across the area on Saturday as we receive a brief break before the next system. Snow levels briefly drop to 5000-5500 on Saturday, so there could be some light snow along Willamette Pass. The next storm system arrives Saturday night into Sunday, bringing another round of widespread rain and gusty coastal winds. There is still uncertainty with specific rain amounts from this system, but for now, chances for 24 hour rain totals exceeding 1 inch from Saturday evening to Sunday evening are around 40-60% along the coast and 5-10% along the I-5 corridor. Snow levels rise back above 5500 feet, keeping the passes snow- free again. Looking at early next week, ensemble guidance continues to favor a general troughing pattern across the West Coast. While the specific timing, placement, and strength of the troughing remains uncertain, this would maintain cool and unsettled pattern for our area with additional chances for precipitation. With several rounds of rain through next week, soils will become increasingly saturated through the weekend, potentially increasing runoff into area rivers and streams. At this time, the probability of widespread river flooding remains below 5%, though isolated flooding cannot being ruled out. In addition, any heavy rainfall could lead to ponding over roads as well as urban and small stream flooding of low-lying and poor drainage areas. While it is too early to determine specific hourly rainfall rates to assess the risk of urban flooding, residents can prepare by clearing gutters and storm drains of leaves and other debris. -10 && .AVIATION...Through 06Z Friday...A stalled frontal boundary just off the coast will remain in place through late Thursday. Southwest flow aloft will continue with mostly dry conditions across the area with the only exception along the northern OR and southwest WA coast where light rain is possible through the overnight. Thinning cloud cover across the interior lowlands has allowed for some fog to develop, impacting the typical foggy spots in the central and southern Willamette Valley and the western metro around KHIO. Some fluctuations in flight level are possible but will generally see sub-VFR conditions through 16-18z Thursday morning. Along the coast, expecting MVFR CIGs through the same time frame. Winds overnight are expected to be light. Winds along the coast will increase tomorrow afternoon as another front approaches. Southerly winds 10-15 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt expected. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Broken high clouds continue to stream overhead with VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. There is a low 20-30% chance for MVFR CIGs to develop late tonight around KPDX. Easterly winds around KTTD should inhibit any low cloud cover. Light easterly winds around 5 kt, except in the eastern metro around KTTD where easterly winds of 8-12 kt with gusts around 20 kt are expected to persist. -19 && .MARINE...A stalled frontal boundary offshore will continue to weaken through this evening into Thursday morning. Southerly winds are expected to gradually ease across the waters with gusts dropping below 30 kt by this evening. Seas of around 12 to 16 ft with a period of around 12-14 seconds are also expected to linger through Thursday morning, maintain marginal hazardous seas across the coastal waters. By Thursday afternoon, southerlies again ramp up ahead of the next low pressure system that will approach the area later Thursday into Friday. A strong Gale Force front is expected to peak early Friday morning, with south to southeasterly winds gusting over 33 kt potentially over a 24 hour period. There is also a 40-50% chance for Storm Force wind gusts to occur across the outer coastal waters during the peak timing, but probabilities remain too low to upgrade to a Storm Watch. Therefore, will maintain and extend the Gale Watch that is in effect for all coastal marine zones from Thu evening through Fri afternoon. Seas are expected to become very steep and hazardous by Friday as a fresh south-southwesterly swell likely develops, building seas to around 14 to 18 ft with a dominant period of around 10-11 seconds. This will be followed by a strong, long-period westerly swell that is expected to build seas above 20 ft Friday afternoon, with a 40-70% chance of seas greater than 25 ft. There is also a 10-30% chance for significant wave heights reaching 30 ft in the outer waters, with highest chances to the south. Another strong front is expected to move across the waters later Saturday into Sunday with high chances for another round of strong southerly Gales, while seas remain elevated through the weekend. /DH && .BEACH HAZARDS...A moderate to high sneaker wave threat continues along the coast through this week as a westerly swell of 12 to 16 ft at 14 seconds continues through Thursday. This will result in waves running up significantly farther on a beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Sneaker waves can suddenly knock people off of their feet and quickly pull them into the frigid ocean which may lead to serious injury or drowning. Additionally, confidence is increasing that a stronger westerly swell of 18 to 24 ft with a dominant period at 16-18 seconds will impact the coast later Friday into Saturday for dangerous surf conditions. Destructive waves may wash over beaches, jetties, and other structures unexpectedly. Extreme caution should be used if you plan to visit beaches this week. The large wave runup may dislodge logs on area beaches and result in them rolling up and down area beaches, which have historically killed or seriously injured unsuspecting people, so there will be much more of a threat than just getting wet from a rogue wave. && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST Thursday for PZZ210. Gale Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon for PZZ210. Hazardous Seas Warning until 7 AM PST Thursday for PZZ251>253- 271>273. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM PST Thursday for PZZ251>253-272-273. Gale Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon for PZZ251-272-273. Gale Watch from late Thursday night through Friday afternoon for PZZ252-253. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM PST Thursday for PZZ271. Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon for PZZ271. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

953 FXUS66 KMFR 120004 CCA AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Medford OR 404 PM PST Wed Nov 11 2026 ...Updated AVIATION discussion for 00Z TAFs... .KEY MESSAGES... * Moderate to high impact marine weather through this weekend * Inland, low to moderate impacts from strong winds and rainfall * Active weather likely to continue through the weekend and early next week && .DISCUSSION... A long wave trough continues to advance over the eastern Pacific towards the western CONUS today. The trough axis extends down from the Gulf of Alaska along/near the 140W south to about the 30N parallel. The southern extent of this trough will split off tomorrow as it heads towards southern California. The northern extent will become a closed low and deepen as it heads towards the PacNW Fri/Sat and will be responsible for much of our active weather through Saturday. Then another low develops behind this first closed low and heads into British Columbia to continue impacts through the weekend with a majority of these impacts near the coast. The strongest wind speeds will likely be between Coos Bay and Pistol River Friday morning. Below are some probabilities for areas along/near the coast where we will likely see the strongest gusts. * 50 mph or greater: 70% to 95% * 55 mph or greater: 60% to 90% * 60 mph or greater: 50% to 75% * 65 mph or greater: 10% to 30% These probabilities have led to enough confidence to issue a High Wind Watch for areas along and near the coast. This includes all of Curry and Coos counties where we technically don`t issue a Wind Advisory. Additionally, Douglas County near the coast, and far western parts of Josephine County are in the watch as well. For Douglas and Josephine counties, these areas may not get upgraded to a high wind warning and it may be Wind Advisory for areas that we allow this product to be issued. The take away is that strong to very strong wind gusts are expected Friday morning which can lead to downed tress, power outages, as well as difficult driving conditions for high profile vehicles. Any unsecured or loose outdoor objects will likely get blown around or damaged. Farther inland, strong wind gusts are expected for Shasta Valley Thurs/Thurs night, and eastside areas Friday afternoon/early evening which has led to a Wind Advisory across these areas. These areas will likely see wind gusts around 45 to 55 mph. Precipitation chances will start Thurs night/Fri morning and continue through the weekend. There will be breaks as we are not expecting a continuous onslaught of rainfall. Rainfall amounts will be highest along and near the coast. Curry County--in typical fashion--will see the higher rainfall rates and amounts. That said, not expecting much in the real of impacts for rainfall, but nuisance type flooding with ponding on roadways will lead to slippery roads and longer driving times. In particular, driving conditions for the mornings of both Friday and Sunday may involve the most nuisance for drivers. Snowfall will be confined to areas above 5000 ft, and we are not expecting any noteworthy accumulations, but highways around Diamond Lake, Crater Lake, and Lake of the Woods could be the areas to watch for light amounts (Trace-1.0") of snowfall. This may lead to slippery roads and longer drive times Friday afternoon through Monday morning. -Guerrero && .AVIATION...12/00Z TAFs...VFR levels are present across northern California and southern Oregon under high clouds or clear skies to start the TAF period. While a relatively stable weather pattern suggests persistence could guide the forecast, the presence of high clouds can reduce chances of fog development. For west side terminals, possible timing of lower flight levels has been included even though confidence in coastal and Umpqua development is moderate to low. Anything that does develop overnight is expected to clear before Thursday afternoon. Areas east of the Cascades are expected to remain clear through the TAF period. -TAD && .MARINE...Updated 200 PM PST Wednesday, November 11, 2026...Gusty south winds, strongest north of Cape Blanco, will persist this afternoon as a warm front lifts north through the region. Very steep and hazardous seas will continue north of Cape Blanco, along with the potential for isolated gale force gusts at times through this afternoon. Winds will diminish behind the front late this afternoon, but steep seas and advisory strength south winds are expected through Thursday. Conditions will rapidly deteriorate late Thursday into Friday as a strong front moves in, bringing strong gales (possibly storm force gusts) and very high and very steep seas. Yet another major long-period swell will move into the waters following this front late Friday. It is expected to peak Friday night with wave heights in the coastal waters forecast to reach 25 to 30 feet with a period of 19 seconds. Another front is expected Saturday into Sunday, and while it will be somewhat weaker than the first front, another round of gales looks possible with this system. Additional, another significant long periods swell will follow that front. Again, likely not quite as high as the first front, but expect very high, steep and very hazardous, even dangerous, sea conditions to persist through the weekend and into early next week. Mariners should keep a close eye on the forecasts as this especially impactful period draws closer. && .BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 200 AM PST Wednesday, November 11, 2026...Dangerous conditions are expected along area beaches Friday through the weekend. Wave model guidance is depicting a major, long period westerly swell arriving with an expected storm system late this week into this weekend. The swell is forecast to arrive along the Oregon coast Friday and peak late Friday night through Saturday morning. Peak wave heights are forecast to be 25 to 30 feet at 19 second period, which translates to breaking surf heights of 33 to 38 feet. This would result in exceptionally high and dangerous surf conditions, with completely inundated beaches, and potential dune overwash and erosion. Another heavy long period swell is anticipated behind a second front late Saturday into Sunday. This is likely to maintain hazardous beach conditions as breaking wave heights of 25- 27 ft persist into Monday. Those with coastal and marine interests should stay up to date with the latest forecasts as this event approaches. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 4 AM PST Friday for ORZ029>031. High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for ORZ021>024. High Surf Warning from 10 AM Friday to 10 PM PST Saturday for ORZ021-022. CA...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 4 AM PST Friday for CAZ081- 084-085. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Gale Watch from Thursday evening through Friday evening for PZZ350-356-370-376. Hazardous Seas Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ350- 370. && $$

998 FXUS66 KEKA 112342 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 342 PM PST Wed Nov 11 2026 .AVIATION...00Z UPDATE...Satellite imagery shows a bank of coastal cumulus clouds making for MVFR conditions at ACV. These clouds are expected to expand through the afternoon before dissipating in the evening. Sounding data shows a weak marine layer forming this evening possibly creating IFR conditions before clearing early Thursday AM. Winds will turn offshore late tonight through dawn, possibly keeping the marine layer away from terminals. Southerlies are still expected to increase tomorrow through the day with gusts up to 20-30kts possible late in the 00Z taf period. Expect SCT to BKN ceilings through the day tomorrow with VFR to MVFR conditions for coastal sites. Inland terminals will see VFR conditions with gusty southerly winds. Expect localized LLT on approach for all terminals tomorrow midday through Friday. DS && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 153 PM PST Wed Nov 11 2026/ KEY MESSAGES... * Dry and unseasonably warm weather forecast through midday on Thursday. * Moderate to heavy rain and gusty south winds across much of the area throughout Friday. * Very large surf Saturday with breaking waves over 25 feet is possible. This will increase beach erosion and possibly bring some coastal flooding. * Additional rain and wind possible over the weekend and into early next week. SYNOPSIS...Unseasonably warm and dry weather is expected today and Thursday. Friday, a strong cold front is expected to bring gusty winds and moderate to heavy rain to the area. There may be a brief break in the rain on Saturday before another system brings more rain and wind Saturday night and Sunday. DISCUSSION...A brief period of high pressure will continue for Northwest California through mid Thursday. Dry air and warmer than average conditions will continue as a result. There is over an 80% chance of high temperatures over 65 degrees along the Mendocino Coast again Thursday with over a 70% chance of high temperatures over 65 degrees along the Humboldt and Del Norte Coast. Offshore flow has aided in increasing high temperatures along the coast today. Interior valley temperatures will range from the low 70s to high 70s. Also, early morning low clouds/fog can be anticipated through this time period for moist interior valleys, as well as a general marine layer along the coast overnight/early morning that will clear and scatter by the afternoon. Tonight and into Thursday morning, a weak front is anticipated to approach the area. Some models show this front bringing isolated light showers or sprinkles to coastal areas. By late Thursday, a cutoff low pressure system will approach the Pacific Northwest. Models also depict a troughing pattern lasting through early next week with a potential for multiple rounds of rainfall and strong southerly winds. Widespread rainfall and gusty winds are expected for Northwest California, as a result. With the first front, southerly winds are anticipated to ramp up by Thursday evening with models indicating rain beginning very late Thursday night or very early Friday morning. The winds will likely be strongest just ahead of the heavier rain. The strongest winds are forecast for Del Norte County along with the King Range in Humboldt County. The GFS and the RRFS both show 55 to 65 kt at 925 and 850 MB as the front moves into Humboldt and Del Norte counties. Lower levels could be unstable enough to enable the higher winds to mix down to the lower elevations, especially along the coast. NBM also indicates at least a 75 to 80% chance of 24-hour max wind gusts of 45 mph or greater for Coastal Del Norte, along with coastal headlands and higher terrain areas of Humboldt and Del Norte counties and higher elevations in extreme northeast Lake County on Friday. A Wind Advisory has been issued for Del Norte County and the higher terrain areas of Humboldt County. This may need to be expanded or upgraded. As of this afternoon, a High Wind Watch may be issued for coastal headlands and higher terrain areas of Del Norte County for Friday morning. Otherwise, also on Friday, there is a 65 to 70% chance of 24-hour max wind gusts of 35 mph of greater for more populated areas of coastal Humboldt along with higher terrain areas of Trinity, Mendocino and Lake counties. Moderate to heavy precipitation is expected through the day Friday, with showers likely through Saturday and the potential for another bought of moderate rainfall on Sunday. Light rain will most likely start very late Thursday evening on the upslope areas, such as the south slopes of the King Range. The heavier rain is expected to begin a few hours before sunrise on Friday morning. The National Blend of Models (NBM) indicates over a 80% chance of 24-hour rainfall totals of 2 inches or more for Del Norte, Humboldt, northern and western Trinity, and northern Mendocino from 4am Friday (11/13) to 4am Saturday (11/14). A 65 to 85 percent chance for 1.5 inches or greater is expected during the same time period for eastern central Trinity, southern Mendocino, and Lake counties. The Humboldt Bay region could see slightly less total precipitation due to a rain shadow effect. Showers are anticipated behind the front, especially in Humboldt, Del Norte and northern Mendocino counties. The heavier showers may bring close to an additional inch of rain with them. There is a potential for some thunder with these showers, as well. The NBM thunder probabilities have come down slightly, but are still around 15 to 20 percent. Generally dry weather is expected on Saturday, although there may be some lingering showers. This will be short-lived, however, with the next weather system moving in Saturday night or Sunday. This one is expected to have lighter winds and rain, but still could see a half inch in Lake county to nearly two inches in the mountains of Humboldt and Del Norte counties. Drier weather is possible Monday and part of Tuesday with another system possible later on Tuesday. /JLW & /MKK MARINE...Southerly winds continue across the waters this morning, but remain only around 10 to 20 kt. A northwest swell of 8 to 11 feet at 13 seconds continues to move through as well. The southerly winds are expected to increase slightly this afternoon, but generally remain around 5 to 15 kt in the southern waters and 15 to 20 kt in the northern waters through tonight. Thursday a weak front is approaching the area and is expected to 20 to 25 kt southerly winds to most of the area. A new northwest swell is expected to move in building waves slightly to 13 to 14 feet at 15 seconds. A strong front is expected to rapidly increase winds across the area Thursday night and Friday. Gales are expected to start near or shortly before midnight in the northern waters and may expand into the southern waters towards morning. There is the potential for storm force wind gusts if the comes in on the stronger side of model guidance and this will need to be watched as it gets into range of the high resolution models. Saturday night into Sunday another system is expected to bring gales or near gales. MKK BEACH HAZARDS...Just as these strong winds are diminishing on Friday afternoon a very large swell is expected. The wave model shows this building to around 25 feet at 18 seconds. This could lead to breakers around 30ft. A High Surf Warning has been issued north of Cape Mendocino from 1pm Friday (11/13) to 4am Sunday (11/15) and south of Cape Mendocino from 4pm Friday (11/13) to 4am Sunday (11/15). COASTAL FLOODING...Water levels inside Humboldt Bay continue to run 1.5 to 2 feet over the astronomical tides. Winds will continue to be southerly which tends to increase water levels slightly. The max high tide is expected to drop each day through the end of the week and into the weekend, yet stronger southerly winds through Friday are likely to offset at least some of this decrease in max tide height. The water levels are expected to be slightly below 8.8 feet the next couple of days around high tide (11/12 @12:527pm, 11/13 @1:04pm, 11/14 @1:45pm). && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Wind Advisory from midnight Thursday night to 1 PM PST Friday for CAZ101>106. High Surf Warning from 1 PM Friday to 4 AM PST Sunday for CAZ101-103. High Surf Warning from 4 PM Friday to 4 AM PST Sunday for CAZ104-109. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until midnight PST Thursday night for PZZ450. Gale Warning from midnight Thursday night to 3 PM PST Friday for PZZ450. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 AM PST Friday for PZZ455. Gale Warning from 1 AM to 3 PM PST Friday for PZZ455-475. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST Thursday for PZZ470. Gale Warning from 10 PM Thursday to 1 PM PST Friday for PZZ470. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM PST Friday for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

321 FXUS66 KMTR 120606 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1006 PM PST Wed Nov 11 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1252 PM PST Wed Nov 11 2026 - Seasonally warm and dry conditions continue through Thursday - Rain returns to the region Friday into the early part of next week - Coastal flooding due to high tides continues through Friday - Hazardous beach conditions prevail with dangerous conditions this weekend && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1252 PM PST Wed Nov 11 2026 (This evening through Thursday night) The warmest day of the week is still on track for this afternoon with a slight cool down on Thursday as the mid/upper level trough deepens off of the West Coast. The deepening of the trough will push the high pressure, which resulted in several days of above normal temperatures, eastward across the Desert Southwest. Thus, temperatures cool some 3-8 deg F on Thursday compared to this afternoon`s maximum temperatures. In the next 24-36 hours, a cut-off low within the larger broad troughing off of the West Coast will develop at move toward Southern California and Baja California. Thus, the Bay Area and north Central Coast will see little if any impacts from this southward tracking low. Prefrontal rain is forecast to return to return in the coastal ranges late Thursday night into Friday morning. Got beach plans? Check out the BEACHES section of the AFD for safety tips and more information on the Beach Hazards Statement/High Surf Warning and Coastal Flood Advisory. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1252 PM PST Wed Nov 11 2026 (Friday through next Tuesday) The first cold front is forecast to move into the North Bay by mid- to-late Friday morning and then push southward across the Bay Area and Central Coast in the afternoon and evening. Southerly winds will increase ahead of the boundary and become out of the southwest just ahead of the cold front. Overall, wind speeds have trended downward with the latest set of guidance and as still forecast to be strongest across the Pacific. There remains generally a 10%-15% chance of thunderstorms across the North Bay and Bay Area on Friday associated with the destabilization of the atmosphere. Rain totals from this system are expected to be around 0.5-1.25" for the North Bay (highest in the coastal ranges), 0.5-1.00" for the San Francisco Bay Area, Monterey Bay region, and the Big Sur coast, and 0.10-0.40" for the inland portions of Monterey and San Benito Counties as well as the typical rain shadowed valleys. On Saturday, mostly dry conditions are forecast over the region aside from some post frontal rain showers into Friday night into Saturday morning. However, temperatures will be noticeably cooler with highs only reaching into the 60s across most low-lying areas and upper 50s in the higher elevations (upper 40s in the peaks). Rainfall from this system is forecast to be mostly beneficial. However, roadways will be slick and minor nuisance flooding in the typical poorly drained areas. While the wind speeds have trended lower, keep up with the latest forecast information as things have the potential to change. Another cold front is on tap to impact the region Sunday into Monday with another one in the middle of the upcoming week. None of these systems are forecast to stall over any one given region, reducing the threat of widespread flooding concerns. Be sure to check back for the latest forecast information as we head into an unsettled weather pattern. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1005 PM PST Wed Nov 11 2026 VFR conditions continue this evening with stratus forming over our offshore waters. The HRRR seems to be depicting this reasonably well and if it pans out has stratus breaching the coast between 08-11Z. Any fog or stratus that does develop should erode by mid morning, leading to another VFR day. Vicinity of SFO...Moderate confidence in the forecast as models struggle to determine if reduced vis and cig return. Kept the mention of MVFR cigs but that could be too bullish. Think the timing for it is reasonable, with VFR conditions returning by mid to late morning. Southerly winds gradually increase throughout the day, potentially getting to 10-15kt for the afternoon and evening. Up to a 20% for rain might sneak into SFO as early as 12Z Fri, though confidence is too low to add in mentions of RA or VCSH. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions should prevail through the early overnight hours. We`re watching some stratus offshore trying to snake its way to the Monterey coastline. Guidance shows it arriving between 9-11Z, and then mixing out by mid to late morning. Winds will then gradually increase out of the south with VFR conditions prevailing. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 900 PM PST Wed Nov 11 2026 Wave heights continue to build to above 10 ft by this evening. Further deterioration is expected Thursday into Friday ahead of a cold frontal passage on Friday. Moderate rain and strong SW winds with gale force gusts are expected Friday into Saturday as the front moves through. By Saturday, incoming NW swell from a distant hurricane force low will result in high seas with significant wave heights between 25 to 30 feet. Wave heights decrease slightly Sunday before another round of high seas takes place Monday. Small crafts will sustain heavy damage and may not survive in these conditions. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1252 PM PST Wed Nov 11 2026 Beach Hazards Statement/High Surf Warning: A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through 6 PM Friday, at which point it gets replaced with a High Surf Warning through 4 AM Sunday. A series of hurricane force low pressure systems will impact the NE Pacific through early next week. These storms will produce very high NW swell that will impact the coast with very hazardous conditions. Initially the forerunners will bring strong rip currents and sneaker waves through Friday, while the breaking wave amplitude builds to 15- 20 feet. As the peak of the swell arrives on Saturday, breaking waves will reach up to 30 feet. These waves bring tremendous power that will overpower anyone in the water and cause coastal erosion. The risk of drowning is very high this weekend. Do not go in the water, avoid climbing on the rocks or leaning over seawalls, and never turn your back on the ocean. Wave amplitude will abate somewhat on Sunday before a new round of very high swell arrives Monday. Coastal Flood Advisory: A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion from warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding concerns across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is expected to be 1.3 ft above normal (7.1 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM Thursday 11/12, 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM Friday 11/13. These predictions include up to 1.5 ft of surge that will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition, long- period swell will create hazardous conditions along the Pacific coast beaches with an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents. RGass && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday afternoon for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530. Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508- 530. High Surf Warning from 6 PM Friday to 4 AM PST Sunday for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Thursday to 9 AM PST Friday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 9 AM PST Friday for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM PST Friday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....RGass AVIATION...KR MARINE...Kennedy Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

162 FXUS66 KOTX 112301 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 301 PM PST Wed Nov 11 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer and drier through Thursday with areas of morning fog. - Cooler storm system moves in Friday into the weekend bringing additional rain, mountain snow, and gusty winds. - Saturated soils and continued rain will pose a continued risk of debris flows and rock slides in the Cascades this week. && .SYNOPSIS... Dry, warming trend continues through Thursday. A cooler storm system arrives Friday into the weekend bringing rain, high mountain snow, and gusty winds. Cool, wet weather will continue into the start of the next week. && .DISCUSSION... Wednesday through Thursday: Upper-level ridging has begun strengthening over the Inland Northwest, and will bring drier and warmer conditions over the next couple days. Combined with the warm front passage yesterday, temperatures will be much higher than normal for this time of year. Today (Wednesday) and tomorrow will see temperatures in the mid to high 50s, more than 10 degrees above normal than what we usually see in mid-November. Though drier air is still moving into the area, moisture left over from the rain yesterday resulted in dense fog this morning. Boundary layer moisture is high enough to bring a returning chance of fog on Thursday morning as well, which could impact morning commutes. Friday through Tuesday: A series of low pressure systems will move through the area Friday through the beginning of next week as the ridge moves eastward. The first system will move through Friday into Saturday, and the second will move through Sunday into Monday. Ensemble cluster agreement is strong for both systems and throughout the extended period, with only minor differences in track and strength. Temperatures will moderate slightly as these systems usher in colder air, with highs in the 50s rather than the low to mid 40s. The second system (Sunday through Tuesday) looks to bring more precipitation to the Inland Northwest than the first. Snow levels will start out at around 7000 feet, but then by Saturday they will lower to 5000, and by Monday will drop to 4000 feet. This will bring snow to mountain passes, but totals have dropped since yesterday. Through Tuesday morning, Washington Pass is forecast to see the highest snowfall totals, with 3 to 6 inches possible, and Stevens Pass looks to see around an inch. Rainfall amounts range from 0.25-0.4 inches in the lowlands to up to 0.75 inches in the mountains. Winds in the Columbia Basin will increase Friday through Sunday as the systems move through, with wind gusts 20-25 mph. /AS && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: The Inland Northwest is under a ridge of high pressure. High cirrus clouds will stream across at upper levels while low stratus cover and fog is persistent in the Cascade valleys, northern mountain valleys, and in the western to southern Columbia Basin. The prognosis is for a slow expansion tonight of where these low clouds are currently this afternoon. The high clouds will limit radiational cooling and the area around KGEG/KSFF/KDEW will take some time to fill back in holding off until 10-14Z when IFR conditions are expected. Boundary layer banked up against the Cascades will also bring low ceilings into KEAT and KMWH with IFR to MVFR conditions expected tonight into Thursday morning. KMWH on the eastern edge of the stratus cover is more likely to see fog develop. Southeast WA with dry east to southeast winds will keep any low clouds at bay and VFR conditions to persist into Thursday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE: The ceiling and visibility forecast for tonight into Thursday morning carries low confidence at KGEG/KSFF/KCOE as there is a lot of uncertainty with how quickly the boundary layer will saturate it at all tonight. High confidence for continued VFR conditions at KPUW and KLWS. Moderate confidence for fog and low stratus to remain and expand into KEAT and KMWH tonight. /SVH ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 39 59 38 60 40 52 / 0 0 0 0 40 20 Coeur d`Alene 40 59 39 60 40 50 / 0 0 0 0 40 30 Pullman 41 61 42 59 40 51 / 0 0 0 0 70 20 Lewiston 43 63 43 59 45 54 / 0 0 0 0 70 30 Colville 33 57 32 59 35 52 / 0 0 0 0 30 40 Sandpoint 39 57 38 56 37 48 / 0 0 0 0 30 50 Kellogg 41 63 40 62 40 49 / 0 0 0 0 40 50 Moses Lake 34 55 35 62 37 56 / 0 0 0 10 30 0 Wenatchee 42 54 41 55 42 53 / 0 0 0 30 60 10 Omak 40 55 39 60 42 54 / 0 0 0 10 50 20 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

571 FXUS66 KPDT 120607 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1007 PM PST Wed Nov 11 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of dense fog redeveloping tonight and Thursday night in the Columbia Basin and adjacent valleys/foothills. - Periods of breezy to gusty southerly winds along the Blue Mountain foothills, Grande Ronde Valley, and valley/canyon areas in Wallowa county through the weekend - Active weather returns Friday through early next week with periods of moderate to locally heavy precipitation in the mountains and light rain in the lower elevations && .DISCUSSION... Visible satellite imagery this afternoon shows the Lower Columbia Basin, eastern Columbia River Gorge, and the Yakima/Kittitas valleys under a stubborn stratus/fog deck, while patchy cirrus streams overhead. The stratus/fog deck has been slowly eroding way the last couple of hours, but has managed to hold on around the Walla Walla Valley and around Pendleton. IN other areas, the dense fog has lifted, but a status layer between 500ft to 2kft above ground level remains. Today through Thursday Night: Mid to upper level high pressure aloft will continue to sit over the intermountain PacNW through Thursday night. This high pressure pattern has led to a strong layer of subsidence aloft (between 950-850mb) developing over the Lower Columbia Basin and adjacent foothills/valleys, which members of the REFS are in high confidence (80-90%) that this pattern will persist through Thursday night. As a result, fog/stratus is expected to persist through Friday morning across the lower Columbia Basin and adjacent areas, with the densest fog expected to redevelop in overnight and morning hours. While the fog/stratus layer will only strengthen over the next 24-36 hours, there is low confidence (20-35%) in the fog/stratus extending into central OR, as well as developing in the Grande Ronde valley and Wallowa valley. Meanwhile, a persistent surface pressure gradient across the Blue Mountains will result in breezy southerly winds (15-25mph with gusts 35-45mph) developing along the base of the Blue Mountains, through the Grande Ronde valley, and through valley/canyon areas in Wallowa county. Thursday night, an approaching strong surface low will result in the pressure gradient tightening further and extending over central OR, resulting in winds across the aforementioned areas to further increase to near advisory criteria. Friday through Tuesday: An active period of weather will be in store for the forecast area Friday into early next week. While mountain precipitation is expected, any snow accumulations will be limited to mainly above 5.5kft through the period, with a rain/snow mix to around 5kft at times (confidence 70-85%). Starting Friday morning, an approaching vertically stacked low pressure system will result in a tightening of surface pressure gradients and a strong (40-60kts) 850-700mb jet developing over central OR and the eastern mountains. Winds will increase further through the morning and early afternoon, with moderate confidence (60-75%) that gusts between 45-55mph will mix down across portions of central OR, the eastern mountains, Grande Ronde Valley, and Wallowa county. Other than winds, the approaching upper low will bring increasing chances of rain showers late Friday morning. Showers will push from west to east throughout Friday, with light showers in the lower elevations and moderate to locally heavy showers across most mountain areas. That said, 24-hr probabilities for 0.25 inches through Friday night are generally between 40-65% across the Blues and eastern mountains, with probabilities between 50-85% along the Cascade crest and east slopes. In the lower elevations, the probability of 0.1 inches is between 35-65%. Light Cascade mountain precip will continue into Saturday with dry conditions elsewhere while a transient ridge follows the exit of the upper low. There`s good agreement amongst ensemble cluster members that an upper level trough will extend equatorward in the northeast Pacific the first half of Sunday, then swing into western CONUS through Monday. Ahead of the upper trough approach, southerly breezy to locally gusty winds (wind gusts 35-50mph) will develop across central OR, the Blue mountain foothills, Grande Ronde valley, valley/canyon areas of Wallowa county Saturday night into Sunday. While the trough approaches the region Sunday, light to moderate rain shwoers will spread west to east across the region. By Monday, a colder airmass associated with the upper trough moving inland will lower snow levels enough for rain/snow showers developing across portions of the mountain zones and snow generally above 5-5.5kft. In most areas, there is moderate confidence (60-75%) in snow accumulations only amounting to an inch during this period, with higher accumulations along the Cascade and Wallowa peaks. By Tuesday, there is moderate confidence (60-70%) in the upper trough weakening as it continues to swing across western CONUS, with light mountain rain and high mountain snow continuing. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Expect visibility to reach below airfield minimums at PDT and ALW, at least at times as visibility waivers between one quarter and one half SM overnight. Stratus in the gorge will lead to ceilings at DLS in the MVFR category and dropping to IFR/LIFR by 8-12z. BDN/RDM are the most probable to remain VFR although brief drops to 2SM occurred this evening at BDN. Least confidence in visibility trends is at PSC and YKM, where the probability of going below 1 mile is relatively small at 30% ans compared to 70% for PDT/ALW. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 37 62 43 68 / 0 0 0 10 ALW 43 62 48 67 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 36 56 35 63 / 0 0 0 50 YKM 37 58 36 57 / 0 0 0 70 HRI 35 56 37 65 / 0 0 0 30 ELN 35 55 34 53 / 0 0 0 70 RDM 35 70 43 57 / 0 0 0 90 LGD 44 61 45 60 / 0 0 0 10 GCD 37 67 40 60 / 0 0 0 60 DLS 42 59 40 56 / 0 0 0 60 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM PST Thursday for WAZ026-029. OR...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM PST Thursday for ORZ507. && $$ DISCUSSION...82 AVIATION...71

073 FXUS65 KREV 112310 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 310 PM PST Wed Nov 11 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry and mild weather continues through Thursday, with breezy conditions and rough conditions on Lake Tahoe Thursday night. * A storm brings strong winds Friday, then valley rain, and heavy, wet Sierra snow Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. * A colder but weaker storm brings mountain snow Monday. Another storm may follow Wednesday into Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Today and Thursday: * Expect sunny and mild weather the rest of this afternoon and Thursday, with highs in the 60s to near 70 in the lower valleys. Tonight will be clear and chilly. * We have issued a Lake Wind Advisory for Lake Tahoe from 10 PM Thursday to 10 AM Friday. Winds above the surface ahead of the storm mix down to the lake Thursday night, hours before they reach the lower valleys of western Nevada. Southwest gusts up to 35 mph will generate 2 to 5 foot waves, highest on the north and east shores. First Storm - Friday into Saturday Morning: * Wind comes first on Friday, strongest from late morning through the afternoon. Wind Advisories remain in effect from 10 AM to 10 PM. For the Reno-Carson City-Minden area and Lassen, eastern Plumas, and eastern Sierra counties, expect gusts up to 55 mph, and up to 65 mph in wind prone spots along US-395 and I-580. For the Basin and Range, Pyramid Lake, and Mineral and southern Lyon counties, expect gusts up to 45 mph, raised to 55 mph for wind prone areas along US-50 and US-95, with 2 to 4 foot waves on Pyramid Lake. A High Wind Watch remains for far northern Washoe County and the Surprise Valley, with gusts up to 65 mph possible. Sierra ridge gusts could reach 70 to 90 mph around Tahoe, up from our earlier forecast, and 60 to 80 mph in Mono County. * Strong winds may also kick up blowing dust from dry lake beds and desert sinks such as the Carson and Humboldt Sinks and the Smoke Creek and Black Rock Deserts. Travel will be rough for trucks, trailers, and RVs, due to the strong winds. * Rain and snow move into the Sierra Friday afternoon, heaviest from about 4 PM to midnight. Snow levels fall from 7500 feet to near 6000 feet by evening and 5000 to 5500 feet by early Saturday, with snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour above 7000 feet. Winter Storm Watches remain for the Tahoe area and Mono County, and we increased snow amounts this afternoon. Around Tahoe, expect near 12 inches above 7000 feet, up to 20 inches along the crest, and 3 to 6 inches at lake level. Mono County could see 1 to 2 feet above 7000 feet, up from about a foot earlier, and up to 6 inches between 6000 and 7000 feet. Travel is not advised during this time, but if you must, carry chains and a winter kit, and check CalTrans QuickMap and NVRoads. * Reno, Carson City, and Minden can expect a third to a half inch of rain, with a quarter inch or less farther east. Watch for ponding on roads. The storm clears Saturday, followed by a dry Sunday morning and early afternoon with highs in the 40s to near 50. Second Storm - Late Sunday Night through Monday: * The second storm is colder but weaker, and confidence is lower than with Friday`s storm. Most of the rain and snow looks to fall late Sunday night through Monday, but models still disagree on how far offshore the low stays and how quickly it moves inland. That creates a wide range of possible outcomes. A faster track closer to the coast would bring more snow at Lake Tahoe and the Eastern Sierra, while a slower track farther offshore would keep amounts light. Plan for possible slick travel over Sierra passes late Sunday into Monday, and check back as the details come into better focus. Mid-to-Late Next Week: * Another storm may arrive as early as Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. Models range from light amounts to a quarter to half inch of precipitation, so confidence is low. Stay tuned. -Johnston && .AVIATION... * KRNO: VFR conditions through Thursday, with valley inversions reducing slantwise visibilities during the morning hours. On Friday, S-SW wind gusts of 30-40 kts are likely from 18Z-03Z, with turbulence and LLWS. Rain showers 00Z-09Z Sat may bring brief MVFR conditions. * Elsewhere: Ridgetop winds increase Thursday night, with chances for LLWS at KTRK, KTVL, and KMMH after 02Z Fri. On Friday, gusts of 30-40 kts are likely at KCXP and KMEV, and 40-50 kts at KMMH. Sierra ridge gusts of 60-80 kts will bring mountain waves and turbulence over and east of the Sierra. * For Friday afternoon into Saturday morning, expect areas of MVFR/IFR in rain and snow, with widespread mountain obscurations. Snow becomes dominant at KTRK and KTVL after 03-06Z Sat, with IFR/LIFR conditions and runway accumulations likely. Conditions improve by Saturday afternoon. Another round of mountain snow with MVFR/IFR at KTRK, KTVL, and KMMH is possible late Sunday into Monday. -Johnston && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening NVZ005. Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM PST Friday NVZ001-003-004. Lake Wind Advisory from 10 PM Thursday to 10 AM PST Friday NVZ002. Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Saturday morning NVZ002. CA...High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening CAZ070. Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM PST Friday CAZ071. Lake Wind Advisory from 10 PM Thursday to 10 AM PST Friday CAZ072. Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Saturday morning CAZ072. Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning CAZ073. && $$

026 FXUS66 KSTO 112127 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 127 PM PST Wed Nov 11 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather, above normal temperatures, and periodically breezy north to east winds through Thursday - A series of storm systems will bring widespread rain, moderate to heavy rain and snow in the mountains, and gusty to strong southerly winds Friday into early next week - Winter Storm Watch in effect from Friday morning through Monday afternoon for the Sierra and Lassen National Park above 6000` - Wind Advisory is in effect from 4 am to 7 pm PST Friday for the northern Sacramento Valley and portions of the central Sacramento Valley && .DISCUSSION... ...Today through Thursday... A ridge will continue to remain in place across the area today into tomorrow, but slowly break down and shift east late Thursday. Dry conditions are expected with above normal temperatures across the area. Highs will be in the 70s across the area, with cooler conditions at the higher terrain. Breezy conditions at times within the higher terrain especially in the gaps and valleys. Potential for lower ceilings and patchy fog during the morning hours on Thursday as dew point depressions near zero across parts of the southern Sacramento Valley into the northern San Joaquin Valley. Visibility reductions to a couple miles will be possible at times especially near waterways. Winds will start to pick up late on Thursday and into the early morning hours on Friday as a trough digs into the southwestern United States. ...Friday and Saturday... The first of several storm systems moves into the region Friday through Saturday bringing mountain snow, rain, thunderstorms and windy conditions to the region. Rain will overspread the region Friday morning and coverage will only increase as we move throughout the day. Heavy rainfall rates are possible with stronger thunderstorms that develop in the afternoon and evening hours. Coverage of rain and thunderstorms start to diminish in the overnight hours, with isolated to scattered chances within the mountains and isolated within the Valley. Total forecasted rainfall will be 0.25 to 1 inch within the Valley, up to 2 inches within the mountains and foothills. Isolated higher amounts are possible especially where stronger storms develop. Latest HIRES guidance has the slight potential for a SCCZ developing during the evening hours on Friday. However, confidence is low on placement, duration, development, and how long one may set up. Increased low level moisture, instability, and wind shear will help develop a few thunderstorms across the Valley/Foothills during the afternoon and evening hours. A few storms may be on the stronger side as noted within atmospheric soundings across the Valley/Foothills. Strong elongated shear, instability up to 400 J/kg, and synoptic support will help initiate thunderstorms for the Valley/Foothills as the system moves onshore across the area. Impacts from stronger storms would be heavy rainfall rates, frequent lightning, gusty winds, and small hail. On top of the rain and thunderstorm chances there will be the strong southerly winds that develop during the morning and afternoon hours on Friday. A Wind Advisory is in effect for parts of the northern Sacramento Valley and central Sacramento Valley from 4am Friday through 7pm Friday due to the strong southerly winds. Gusts up to 45 mph are expected within the Advisory area, with up to 35 mph elsewhere. Strong winds within the mountains as well. There is a chance for an extension to the Advisory to incorporate the southern Sacramento Valley and into parts of the Delta, but confidence is low on how strong winds will be within those areas for Friday. Right now probabilities to see above 40mph wind gusts are 40 percent within the Delta and 30 percent within the southern Sacramento Valley. We will continue to monitor the need for any extension on Friday to incorporate the southern Sac Valley and into the Delta. Now for the snow chances within the higher terrain, snow levels continue to trend lower. Snow levels will be 6500-7500 ft Friday and drop to 5500-6500 feet by Saturday morning. Snow will be heavy at times, with strong winds creating potential white out conditions. Travel could be very difficult during this time impacting the Friday evening and Saturday commutes. A lull in activity is expected Saturday afternoon and evening as the first system moves out of the region and the second moves into CA Saturday night. ...Sunday and Beyond... Lull in activity is expected Saturday afternoon/evening, with the secondary system moving in Saturday night in Sunday. Precipitation coverage becomes widespread once again across the area Sunday throughout the day. A slight chance for an afternoon thunderstorm is possible, but instability is on the lower end along with shear at this time. Rainfall may be moderate at times within the mountains, foothills, and Valley. Coverage will start to diminish along with rain intensity as we move into Monday. The Valley precip chances start to clear out slowly by the late afternoon and evening, with lingering precipitation in the mountains through Tuesday morning. Up to 2 inches of QPF will be possible within the higher terrain Sunday through Tuesday morning. Areas within the Valley will see up to an inch of QPF. Snow levels during this time will be in the 6500-7500 feet Sunday afternoon and drop to 5500-6500 feet Monday morning. Snow will be heavy at times, with reductions to visibility. Travel may be very difficult for the Monday commutes. Looking at both systems together, up to 2 feet will be possible at higher peaks from Friday through Monday. Minor accumulations of up to an inch are possible down at 5000 feet. A Winter Storm Watch is in effect from Friday morning through Monday afternoon for the northern Sierra above 6000 feet, including Highway 50, I-80, the southern Cascades, and Lassen National Park. Another lull in activity is expected Tuesday morning and afternoon, with the potential for the active pattern to continue. There is a potential for further systems mid to late next week bringing more precipitation to the area. Uncertainty arises with the timing, development, and strength of these systems. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, with locally MVFR around the Sacramento Sites and SCK 12z through 17z for low ceilings and visibility. There is the slight chance for patchy morning fog tomorrow as winds remain light and variable across the Valley. Otherwise, skies will be mostly clear through the remainder of today and into tomorrow. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM PST Friday for Butte County Below 1000 ft-Central Glenn Co & Interstate 5-Eastern Glenn County-N. Sac Valley in Tehama County-Shasta Metro. Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Monday afternoon for Lassen Volcanic NP-Sierra (Cal-Tuo) Above 6000 ft-Sierra (El Dorado-Amador) Above 6000 ft-Sierra (Sierra-Placer) Above 6000 ft. && $$

466 FXUS65 KMSO 112031 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 131 PM MST Wed Nov 11 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Through Friday Fog & Low Cloud Potential: Strong high pressure increasing likelihood of valley inversions. - Pattern Shift: A Pacific system will tap into atmospheric river moisture beginning Saturday, snow levels stay above 6000 feet and precipitation amounts light. - Further cooling early to mid next week with potential for snow levels to lower further. High pressure was sufficient enough to produce morning valley fog but low level mixing has broken inversions and dissipated fog. High clouds are moving over the area yet temperatures will warm well above normal for this time of year in most locations. Clearing overnight may allow for some radiational cooling and reintroduction of valley fog Thursday morning. Pacific moisture wraps around a powerful Pacific low pressure system as it drops south along the west coast Friday. While it will bring a warm southerly flow, it will also increase clouds which in turn will limit warming Friday and Saturday (even limited warming will run 10 degrees above normal in locations). A little light precipitation is expected in north- central and Lemhi County ID Saturday with no impacts expected. The next push of moisture arrives late Monday affecting the region through Wednesday morning. Precipitation amounts are light but have trended up over the past couple model runs. Additionally, snow levels that will remain above 6000 feet this weekend slowly lower to around 4000 feet by Wednesday morning. A light accumulation may develop by Wednesday morning in higher valleys of southwest MT and Lemhi County ID, but in the Anaconda and Pintler Mountains a few to 6 inches of snow is possible along with periods of slick driving conditions over MacDonald and Lost Trail Passes. While impacts should be limited to near the passes, they will also dissipate rapidly as the sun rises Wednesday. If precipitation amounts continue to trend up, impacts could increase and expand, stay updated to future forecasts. && .AVIATION...Fog and low stratus has largely lifted out of area terminals this morning as a thick shield of upper level cloud cover moves into western Montana and north central Idaho. Winds will largely remain light and terrain driven, preventing a well mixed boundary layer going onto this evening. Going into tonight, periods of high clouds may limit how widespread fog development becomes in the overnight hours. Despite this, strong radiational cooling is still expected to drive recurring overnight and early morning valley fog mainly along and north of Interstate 90, including KMSO and KGPI. Furthermore, with Flathead Lake surface temperatures remaining near 50F, the cold and stable airmass will allow the lake to act as a localized moisture source, fueling low stratus and fog across the Flathead and Mission valleys (potentially impacting KGPI) through the end of the week. Further south, terminals KHRF, KSMN and KBTM are experiencing drier conditions at the surface and thus fog or stratus development is not likely. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

703 FXUS65 KBOI 120544 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 1044 PM MST Wed Nov 11 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Continued warm, dry days through Friday. Near record high temperatures. - Valley rain and mountain snow along an eastward-moving cold front Friday night and Saturday morning. Additional rain and mountain snow, along with cooler temperatures, next week. - Breezy south or southeast winds, strongest in Harney County Friday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /Through Friday Night/... Issued 236 PM MST WED NOV 11 2026 A strong upper level ridge over the interior western US will build further as the axis shifts eastward to the Continental Divide by late Thursday. Meanwhile, a Pacific upper trough will deepen as it moves eastward across the north Pacific. The highly amplified ridge/trough pattern will maintain warm, dry, and breezy weather in our CWA through Friday. High temps will be near daily records Thursday and Friday. Breezy east-southeast winds will blow in the Snake Basin between Boise and Twin Falls the rest of today, but lighter winds are expected Thursday. On Friday south winds will increase significantly in Harney County, with gusts to 45 mph. Southeast winds will also increase in the Snake Basin Friday afternoon with gusts to 30 mph. The Pacific trough will come inland Friday night and bring several hours of valley rain and mountain snow along an eastward-moving cold front. Latest models move the front across eastern OR Friday evening and western ID between midnight and 6 AM Saturday. Heaviest precipitation will be in the Boise Mountains -- up to .35 inch --, with .10 to .25 inch in other mountains, and .05 to .15 inch in the valleys. The frontal passage will end the gusty south winds in Harney County. && .LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/... Issued 236 PM MST WED NOV 11 2026 will continue to move through the region and then east Saturday, with lingering precipitation ending gradually through the day behind the cold front. Winds will also remain breezy behind the front and gradually weaken in the evening. A brief upper-level ridge will make an appearance Sunday, creating dry and slightly warmer conditions from Saturday. The next system will be fast approaching late Sunday as a deep upper-level trough moves inland from the Gulf of Alaska. Winds will increase yet again late Sunday into early next week as this pattern moves in. This trough will also weaken as it moves over the area while still bringing a cold front and precipitation. While ensembles differ on the exact timing, it is expected to move through between Sunday night and early Tuesday, with Monday seeing the highest (50-80%) chances of precipitation. Light to locally moderate precipitation totals are expected. Snow levels will lower from around 6000 feet Sunday night to 4000-5500 feet by the time precipitation ends, allowing for additional mountain snowfall. Temperatures will trend lower with highs cooling to near normal by Tuesday. Winds will continue to weaken as the system progresses but remain locally breezy. On Wednesday, another low from the Gulf of Alaska will approach the coast with precipitation chances increasing late in the day. && .AVIATION /06Z Thursday through Friday/... Issued 1036 PM MST WED NOV 11 2026 VFR under thin high clouds through Thursday. Local LLWS mostly near the Snake River from KONO-KMUO. Surface winds: E-S 5-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in portions of the Snake Plain and SE Oregon Thur/PM. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: S-SW 15-25 kt. KBOI...VFR. Southeast winds surface and low levels through Thursday. Local LLWS 5-10SM south of the terminal through mid- morning. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....DG SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....CH

823 FXUS65 KLKN 111721 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 921 AM PST Wed Nov 11 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Unseasonably warm both this afternoon and Thursday afternoon * Strong wind gusts Friday and Friday night * Periods of precipitation Friday afternoon into Saturday morning * Periods of precipitation Monday through Tuesday afternoon && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through Tuesday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A ridge of high pressure will build northward over the Silver State this afternoon. This ridge of high pressure will progress eastward tonight and Thursday. High temperatures across Northern and Central Nevada both this afternoon and Thursday afternoon will be around ten degrees above normal for this time of year. An Eastern Pacific storm system will approach the west coast of the United States Friday. As a result, the surface pressure gradient will increase. Sustained south winds 20 to 30 mph, with gusts near 50 mph are expected in Northern and Central Nevada Friday and Friday night. A Wind Advisory is in effect from 10 AM PST Friday morning until 3 AM PST early Saturday morning. A trough of low pressure will pass eastward across Northern and Central Nevada Friday afternoon through Saturday morning, resulting in periods of precipitation. Snow levels will start at around 8,000 feet Friday afternoon, before dropping to about 5,500 feet by Saturday morning. Here are probabilities of one quarter of an inch of liquid precipitation or more Friday afternoon and Friday night: Winnemucca - 67% Austin - 65% Eureka - 60% Battle Mountain - 57% Carlin - 57% Elko - 55% Spring Creek - 53% Owyhee - 53% Ely - 47% Tonopah - 41% There will be a brief break in precipitation the remainder of the upcoming weekend, prior to the next storm system Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon. Snow levels will start at around 7,000 feet Monday morning, before dropping to about 5,000 feet Monday night. Here are probabilities of 0.1 inches of snowfall or more for select locations in Northern and Central Nevada Monday night into Tuesday morning: Austin - 75% Ruth - 75% Lamoille - 70% Eureka - 65% McGill - 65% Spring Creek - 60% Owyhee - 60% Ely - 55% Jackpot - 55% Elko - 20% FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence regarding unseasonably warm weather both this afternoon and Thursday afternoon. High forecast confidence in strong wind gusts Friday and Friday night. High forecast confidence regarding periods of precipitation Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. Moderate forecast confidence in periods of precipitation Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon. No deviations from the NBM model output. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will persist at all terminal through at least the next 24 hours. Winds will be light. KBAM remains AMD NOT SKED due to hardware upgrades. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Wind Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 3 AM PST Saturday NVZ030-031-033>041. && $$ 87