158 FXUS66 KSEW 280346 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 746 PM PST Fri Feb 27 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Mountain snow and spotty lowland rain showers will taper off this evening. A trend towards cooler and drier conditions will emerge over the weekend with areas of morning fog through Monday before the next weather system arrives by the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The latest forecast remains on track with no updates. Light shower activity continues to become more isolated across the north interior this evening. Expect this trend to continue as broad, low amplitude ridging gradually slides east into the area for the weekend. This will lead to mainly dry conditions areawide Saturday through at least Monday. The exception may be across far southwestern Washington where dynamics associated with a cutoff low moving near the Oregon/California border could spread some clouds or even stray precipitation across into those areas. Where we are cloud-free overnight, expect areas of patchy fog to develop and temperatures to fall into the low to mid-30s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As the pattern evolves Tuesday through late next week, the door will open to fairly typical winter frontal systems. The most likely scenario is precipitation spreading from west to east across the area Tuesday into Tuesday night bringing lowland rain, mountain snow, and some areas with breezy winds. At this time, the potential for significant weather hazards appears low and the precipitation looks primarily beneficial for the region, adding some much needed snow to the snowpack in the mountains. That said, given a weak favoring of above normal temperatures, snow levels may limit the overall additions. -Wolcott- && .AVIATION... West to northwest flow aloft will continue into Saturday with a weak upper ridge centered offshore. Low end VFR ceilings will prevail for most areas this evening. Ceilings will then deteriorate to low MVFR or occasional IFR areawide overnight as stratus continues to expand across western Washington before scattering out again Saturday afternoon. KSEA...Low end VFR will lower back to low MVFR or tempo IFR 10Z-20Z Saturday. Low clouds are expected to scatter out Saturday afternoon. Surface winds S/SW 7 to 10 knots through this evening...then backing to N/NE overnight and rising to 9 to 12 knots Saturday afternoon. 27 && .MARINE... Surface high pressure will build into the waters today with onshore flow easing. Winds will transition more northerly or weak offshore over the weekend as a surface ridge settles over the interior of British Columbia. The next frontal system will move into the waters Tuesday into Wednesday. Seas will hover near 10 feet for the outer Coastal Waters through today, before subsiding back into the 4 to 7 foot range over the weekend through Tuesday. 27 && .HYDROLOGY... No river flooding is expected during the next seven days. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...None. && $$

194 FXUS66 KPQR 280515 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 915 PM PST Fri Feb 27 2026 Updated aviation and marine discussion, and hazards. && .SYNOPSIS... Calm weather conditions today with fog/frost again overnight tonight into Saturday morning. This weekend, a weather system moving into northern California will brush the region and return chances for precipitation, mainly from Salem southward. Dry weather returns early next week before another system arrives and brings widespread precipitation Tuesday into Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION...Friday afternoon through Thursday...Mostly clear skies are being observed on visible satellite across NW OR and SW WA early Friday afternoon as upper level flow remains fairly zonal over the region. Temperature observations are on the way to seeing peak temperatures in the mid 50s across much of the region outside of cloud cover today. Another round of patchy fog and frost is expected tonight into Saturday morning across the interior lowlands. Overnight temperatures aren`t expected to be quite as chilly as this morning with most locations falling to around 32-35 degrees, which is still plenty chilly for frost. However, high cloud cover from a weather system to our south could begin streaming over the region by early tomorrow morning, and depending on the timing of this, could impede the cooling needed for frost and/or fog. Ensemble guidance remains in excellent agreement that a cut-off low pressure system will swing through northern California from the northeast Pacific Saturday through early Monday morning. Ensemble guidance has locked in that the low track will be far enough north that wrap-around precipitation from the south will reach at least the southern-most parts of the CWA Saturday afternoon into Sunday, mainly from Lincoln/Polk/Marion Counties southward. For locations north of this, there`s about a 25-30% chance of rain all the way north to the Columbia River on Sunday, including the Portland/Vancouver metro area, and about a 10-15% chance north of this. Not much rain nor impacts are expected from this system. In 48 hours ending 10 AM Monday, general QPF is 0.05-0.45 inch south of Salem, heaviest in southern Lane Co for the valley and the Cascades. Additionally, guidance currently suggests that the wettest scenario (10% chance) is around 0.25-0.8 inch for the interior lowlands. Snow levels will also be around 6000-7000 feet, keeping snowfall well-above the Cascade passes. Transient ridging returns to the PacNW for Monday, leading to a return of completely dry weather and warmer daytime temperatures in the upper 50s. The next weather system approaches the region Tuesday with uncertainty continuing for when precipitation will begin. Many ensemble members have been pushing the start time a touch earlier into Tuesday, though the majority of ensemble guidance still (~75%) favors the dry weather coming to an end by Tuesday evening. At this point, no wind impacts are expected with this system, though could see some gusts up to 25 mph, locally up to 35-40 mph over the terrain, as the front passes on Wednesday. Snow could return to the Cascades as snow levels drop to around 3500-4500 feet on Wednesday. Chances for 6+ inches of snow in a 48 hour period from 4 AM Tuesday through 4 AM Thursday are around 50-70% along the Santiam and Willamette Passes and 20% for Highway 26 at Government Camp, with the most snow falling late Tuesday into Wednesday. On Thursday, rain and mountain snow decrease and transition into showers. -03/10 && .AVIATION...Widespread VFR conditions with a few high clouds around KEUG and lower stratus over western Washington. At this point the clouds have had minimal impact and the overall clear skies has allowed for widespread diurnal cooling. While not widespread, there area few hints of fog or patchy fog beginning to form at some area terminals as saturation occurs. The challenge tonight will be whether or not dense fog forms once again or if conditions frost out first. At this point, temperatures are well above freezing which bodes better for fog development. However, because there has been a lack of rain over the last few days, the amount of available moisture for saturations is very reduced which will hinder fog. Areas with the highest probability would be within the southern Willamette Valley around KEUG where ensembles show around a 35-45% chance of LIFR conditions and a 50% chance of IFR conditions. Given the overall trend, have leaned into a fog scenario for the south. In the north, there is less certainty with a 30% chance of IFR stratus from KUAO north. Towards the end of the forecast, a stratus shield will move over the area ahead of a frontal system in the south. This stratus should prevent any fog/frost from reforming. There is around a 30% chance for rain from KSLE southward. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Current VFR conditions with mostly clear skies will continue through the TAF period. Northwesterly winds around 5 kt or less continue. There is 10-15% chance of IFR VIS after 09Z Sat with probabilities decreasing significantly after 15Z. -27 && .MARINE...Update: Seas have generally over performed due to a combination of a northwesterly swell and northwesterly wind wave. While previously the northern waters of PZZ271 were expected to ease, area buoys still show elevated seas above 10 ft. Therefore, have extended the small craft advisory. In addition, winds with the latest forecast have increased. There will be a short break in between the wave driven and wind driven small craft advisories but shouldn`t be long-lived. Previous discussion follows. -27 A northwesterly swell today continues to bring seas around 9 to 12 ft with wave periods around 14 to 16 seconds. While the swell will decrease slightly tonight into Saturday, north to northeasterly winds will increase, bringing gusts up to 25 kt over the outer waters and up to 15-20 kt over the inner waters during Saturday morning and afternoon. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect for all the waters until 10 PM Friday, then for just the outer waters south of Cape Falcon until 4 PM Saturday. Into Sunday, winds weaken and shift easterly, while seas decrease to around 5 to 6 ft. Seas and winds will likely decrease further heading into Monday, then increasing towards Small Craft conditions Tuesday into late next week as a frontal system approaches. Although seas will likely stay under 10 ft, guidance suggests a 40-50% chance for wind gusts over 21 kt Tuesday through Wednesday morning.~12 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for PZZ251>253. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Saturday for PZZ271>273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

022 FXUS66 KMFR 280520 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 920 PM PST Fri Feb 27 2026 .UPDATE...Aviation and Marine sections updated. && .DISCUSSION...Issued 215 PM PST Fri Feb 27 2026 The axis of an upper level ridge is overhead this afternoon. The fog/low clouds from earlier today have burned off and if lots of sunshine is your thing and these mild late February temperatures aren`t too hard to take, well, then this is a banner day for you. Get out there and enjoy it. Of course, things are expected to change a bit this weekend. A cut off low is still well offshore, but warm advection in advance of it will cause the air mass to moisten considerably and some light rain could break out as early as Saturday morning across NorCal and SW Oregon. As this area lifts to the north, and the flow backs to the SW, the atmosphere will become more unstable Saturday afternoon -- ie, steadier light rain shifts north and precipitation becomes more showery in nature. Models yesterday showed most of the instability to the south of the area, but recent CAM guidance, has nudged the instability (200-500 J/KG) and steepening mid-level lapse rates (6.5-7.5C/km) a bit farther north beneath a decent upper level (~100-kt) jet streak. Lightning probabilities from the NBM are shown to be in the 15-30% range across most of NorCal with probabilities dropping off to below 10% across northern sections of the CWA. While most of the HREF paintball of >40 dbZ (radar reflectivity) shows the majority of the healthier cells across NorCal Sat pm/eve, there is potential (10-15% chance) for an isolated cell or two to move across SE Jackson, southern Klamath or southern Lake counties too. Main risks with any of the healthier showers Saturday afternoon/evening will be lightning, downpours, small hail and brief wind gusts. The jet streak shifts eastward Saturday night and the lightning risk should diminish for a while. But, the cut off low will gradually move eastward, eventually moving onshore Sunday evening. This will maintain unsettled weather across much of the area Sunday with more showers and still a slight chance of thunderstorms. Snow levels during most of this period of unsettled weather will be quite high -- rising to around 8000-9000 feet Saturday, then lowering back to around 6000-6500 feet Sunday night. So, winter weather impacts are not expected or will be minimal at best. This system will shift into the Great Basin on Monday. Still could be some lingering moisture and a chance of showers, but these should be diminishing through the day. Upper ridging will build in at least briefly Monday night into Tuesday morning, but a progressive pattern in WNW flow aloft will bring the next upper trough back into the picture as early as Tuesday afternoon. Rain chances increase along the coast and NW sections of the forecast area then (20-50% chance), but most locations south and east of there should escape with a dry day. Temperatures remain mild for the first week of March with highs in the upper 50s/low 60s west of the Cascades and 55-60F over the East Side. The fairly sharp upper trough is expected to move through Tuesday night into Wednesday. Expect a period of light to moderate precipitation to accompany the cold front (all areas - 60-90% chance) with the focus along the coast and into the Cascades. Snow levels will drop during this event, down to 4000-5000 feet by Wednesday evening, but this will still keep most winter impacts confined to the higher terrain and Cascade passes. There is a high 24-hr probability of 4 inches of snow or greater (85% chance) at Crater Lake National Park through Wednesday night, but the probability diminishes to 40% at Lake of the Woods on Highway 140. Preliminary guesstimates would be for a 3-7 inch snowfall above 5000 feet in the Cascades with higher amounts to 10 inches above 5500 feet. Behind the front, showers probably diminish by Wednesday evening for the Rogue Valley (and southeast of the Cascades), but onshore flow keeps them going along the coast, to around the Rogue-Umpqua Divide and over to the Cascades. Back side energy could still bring low chances (15-30%) of showers on Thursday across NW sections, with dry weather elsewhere. Model guidance is waffling on the details (strength/timing/etc) regarding another potential trough swinging southward late next week or next weekend. For now, it looks like an increase in precip chances again late Friday or Friday night across the NW, but that`s as detailed as we`d like to be at this range. We`ll continue to monitor and let you know how things evolve. -Spilde && .AVIATION....28/06Z TAFS...Areas of LIFR conditions in fog/low clouds are expected to return to the the Umpqua Valley/Roseburg and the Coquille Valley overnight (beginning 08-11z) and persist through mid to late morning (16-18z). Offshore winds are present at North Bend this evening and expect these to weaken late tonight. So, moderate confidence they will see MVFR or IFR in patchy fog late tonight/early Saturday morning. Elsewhere, expect continued VFR conditions. Rain will move into the region from the south Saturday morning and afternoon with increasing mid level clouds, areas of mountain obscurations. Additionally isolated thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and early evening in northern California (15% chance) and potentially into parts of southwest Oregon including near Grants Pass, Medford and Klamath Falls (5-10% chance). && .MARINE...Updated 800 PM PST Friday, February 27, 2026...Breezy north to northeast winds and steep northwest seas are expected across the waters into Saturday morning. Conditions improve Saturday afternoon into Sunday as winds ease and northwest swell subsides. Sub-advisory conditions are expected to persist through early next week. Hazardous conditions may return around mid-week as southerly winds increase and Tuesday into Wednesday followed by an increasing northwest swell late Wednesday into Thursday. && .BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 200 PM PST Friday, February 27, 2026...A long period north to northwest swell is building into the waters this afternoon, bringing a moderate risk of sneaker waves that will persist through the evening hours. If you plan to visit area beaches this afternoon, be sure to keep your eye on the ocean. Sneaker waves can run up significantly farther on beaches than normal, including over rocks and jetties. These waves can suddenly knock people off of their feet and sweep them into the ocean. The waves can also move logs or other objects which could crush or trap anyone caught underneath. If you see someone swept into the ocean, do not go in after them. Remain onshore, call for help and keep an eye on them until help arrives. NEVER turn your back on the ocean! /BR-y && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM PST this evening for ORZ021- 022. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM PST Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$

596 FXUS66 KEKA 280835 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 1235 AM PST Sat Feb 28 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Showers with areas of thunderstorms develop over the weekend. The best chance for showers and isolate thunderstorms will be north of Mendocino county and way from the coast in the afternoon. Mainly dry weather is expected Monday and Tuesday with more light rain possible Tuesday night or Wednesday. Dry weather is expected to return later in the week. && .DISCUSSION...An upper level low with a frontal boundary ahead of it is approaching the area Saturday morning. This is expected to move across the area early int he morning bring a round of light rain. Later in the morning and into the afternoon the instability increases some and there is the potential for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. This will mainly be north Mendocino county with areas farther south seeing a lower potential for showers and thunderstorms. In Mendocino and Lake counties in the morning there is 300 to 500 j/kg of CAPE on the HREF, but at the same time there is quite a bit of CIN which is likely why the model Reflectivity shows so few showers. As the boundary moves to the northeast and heating increases through the day. It looks like there is a fairly brief wind in the late morning and afternoon for thunderstorms. In Weaverville the HREF increase surface CAPE to over 300 j/kg and CIN drops. This may be enough for some thunderstorms to develop. The NAM sounding shows a quick increase of deep cape in the early afternoon for a few hours before it drops back down again. Saturday night into Sunday morning the showers are expected to diminish, although there will likely still be a few around. Sunday afternoon and evening the shower coverage is expected to increase again and there is the chance for thunderstorms over the interior. This is due to the upper level low moving over the area. Instability and lapse rates look less favorable for thunderstorms than on Saturday, but they are still possible north of Mendocino county. Monday high pressure starts to build into the area and showers are expected to come to an end in the morning. Valley fog is likely in many areas due to the recent rain. Dry weather is expected to continue through most of the Tuesday. The next chance for rain is expected Tuesday night and Wednesday. Rainfall amounts are expected to be fairly light, however snow levels are expected to drop to around 5000-6000 feet Wednesday morning. Dry weather is expected to return for Thursday. MKK && .AVIATION...(6Z TAFs)...Outside of brief LIFR to IFR impacts due to stratus and/or ground fog, conditions are likely to remain VFR for the next 24 hours. A fast moving cold front approaches Saturday morning increasing the North Coast`s chance of showers beginning at 15Z (+/- 2 hrs). A very slight chance of lighting is possible for terminals as well beginning around 18Z (+/- 1 hr). VFR conditions are expected through this frontal passage with a chance (20-40%) of MVFR due to decreases in visibilities. && .MARINE...A mid period northwest swell has arrived and has likely peaked at around 8 to 10 ft. A small craft advisory remains in effect for the northern outer waters through 10 AM today for combined seas of over 10 ft. Other areas could briefly see seas over 10 ft as well, but generally this swell will be subsiding through the day Saturday. A weak cold front moves through the area today, bringing a quick burst of northwesterly winds. Even the high end models are showing gusts peaking at 20 to 25 kts. Some locally gustier winds are possible around the strongest showers, along with an isolated thunderstorm. After this passage, winds will diminish again into Sunday. Winds and seas are likely to remain mild through at least Wednesday of next week before northerlies build in as a fairly weak thermal trof set up looks to form over the waters. JB/DS && .COASTAL FLOODING...A nearing full moon phase will bring higher than usual tides over the next several days. The worst case forecast tide levels over Saturday and Sunday are high, possibly reaching as high as 8.3ft, but will remain below advisory and impact level for Humboldt Bay. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for PZZ470. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

685 FXUS66 KMTR 280716 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1116 PM PST Fri Feb 27 2026 ...New CLIMATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1234 PM PST Fri Feb 27 2026 - Well above normal temperatures through Saturday - Slight cooling trend with 20% rain chances on Sunday - Above normal warmth next week with increased chances for bursts of offshore flow && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1234 PM PST Fri Feb 27 2026 (This afternoon through Saturday) Very warm conditions continue this afternoon across the area as offshore flow continues to envelop the Bay Area and Central Coast. Despite increasing MaxT for today in a prior update, temperatures continue to overachieve. The sky cover forecast has certainly been challenging over the last 1-2 days and is likely a big reason for higher-than-expected MaxTs. Given the current satellite presentation, it seems prudent to adjust these grids downward to support upward adjustments in MaxT for the rest of this afternoon and into tomorrow. The fog threat seems limited tonight courtesy of the PBL mixing that`s helping to keep things on the warmer side. Saturday should see more in the way of cloud cover as shortwave ridging is replaced with larger scale troughing. In fact, there may be a few sprinkles across the North Bay during the pre-dawn hours on Saturday morning, but overall the potential for measurable rainfall is greater on Sunday. Saturday will feature another warm day. While the current forecast advertises widespread 70 and 80 degree weather, there`s some potential for things to get warmer than advertised if skies remain more clear through peak heating. The spread is a little less across the North Bay where the initial influx of cloudier conditions is expected earlier in the day, along with an opportunity for showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm. Forecast soundings on Saturday (and on Sunday) do indicate the potential for some mid-level instability, however, the synoptic scale ascent is displaced to the north of our region. For now, we`ll advertise a 15-20% PoP for the North Bay late Saturday and into Sunday with a 10% chance for thunderstorms during the same time period. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1234 PM PST Fri Feb 27 2026 (Saturday night through next Thursday) As noted above, rain chances re-enter the forecast late Saturday and into Sunday. These rain chances persist as late as the pre- dawn hours on Monday. It is unlikely for continuous rain to fall and most areas will remain rain-free. The best chance for sprinkles/very light rain reside across the North Bay and along the immediate coastline. Hi-res NWP (Rapid Refresh Forecast System) do indicate this potential well and we`ll hold onto a 20 PoP for parts of the area. Higher end rainfall scenarios paint a few hundredths of an inch of rainfall as far south as the Central Coast by Monday morning. At this time, the deterministic NBM seems reasonable with rain amounts largely around a hundredth. The noticeable change on Sunday will be the temperature drop. At this time, we`re anticipating that highs on Sunday will only be in the 60s to low 70s as cloud cover and modest cold air advection take shape. The main weather theme next week will be the opportunity for increased breezes, and a times, flow will be offshore. As the upper air pattern turns more northwesterly aloft, this should support shortwave troughs through the Sierra and into portions of the Great Basin. In the wake of these features, surface high pressure will build to the northeast, strengthening the predominantly MSLP gradient. 925mb flow does increase with speeds averaging 30 to 40 knots and the synoptic scale pattern does suggest that winds will at least momentarily turn more offshore. Elevated winds are frequently more probable at the higher terrain and across NW to SE oriented passes/gaps, especially in these upper air pattern. For now, edits were confined to these areas as confidence is greatest in the strongest winds here. Wind gusts here may reside closer to 40 knots (45 mph) Wednesday through Friday of next week. While recent rainfall has supported a modest green up, energy release components (ERC`s) are trending upward across our area. At this time, it`s unlikely that ERC values will exceed critical thresholds for official fire weather products, but areas of dormant/dead vegetation will have the potential to burn, especially if there`s favorable alignment of terrain and wind. We`ll continue to monitor and message this potential through the weekend and into next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 930 PM PST Fri Feb 27 2026 Widespread VFR continues into the night with high clouds continuing to build. Winds become lighter into the night with directions at most sites going variable. Pockets of inconsistent mist will be possible at STS, but look to erode into the late morning, leading to widespread VFR. Winds build slightly into Saturday afternoon, but become weak again that evening and night. Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Expect light to moderate north winds into the night before winds become light and variable. West winds build again into Saturday afternoon and last well into that night. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period. Winds become light into the night. Southeast winds build for SNS into the early morning, but switch to northwest winds Saturday afternoon while MRY goes more westerly. Winds become light again that night. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 930 PM PST Fri Feb 27 2026 Light northerly winds continue across the waters through the weekend. Drizzle is possible across the northernmost zones Saturday and Sunday morning and again into early next week. Low to moderate seas continue into next week with stronger winds arriving in the mid week. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1116 PM PST Fri Feb 27 2026 The following are the record high temperatures at the long term sites for Saturday, Feb 28th. Location Feb 28th Record High Santa Rosa 93 in 1923 San Rafael 78 in 2025 Kentfield 78 in 1929, 1923 Napa 81 in 1929 Richmond 77 in 1986 Livermore 82 in 2022 San Francisco 76 in 1992, 1986 SFO Airport 73 in 1959 Redwood City 77 in 2025 Half Moon Bay 74 in 1954 Oakland Museum 75 in 2025 San Jose 77 in 2025, 1926 Salinas Airport 81 in 2022 && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bain LONG TERM....Bain AVIATION...Murdock MARINE...Murdock Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

445 FXUS66 KOTX 280832 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1232 AM PST Sat Feb 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Drier and warmer through the weekend into early next week. - Mountain snow and lowland rain returns Tuesday night into Wednesday. && .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures will gradually trend warmer into early next week. Active weather returns Tuesday night into Wednesday, with mountain snow, lowland rain, and breezy winds. This is expected to bring winter travel conditions over the mountain passes. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Tuesday: A benign weather pattern will persist across the Inland Northwest. For this weekend, the region will be under a split-flow regime with the polar jet to the north and a subtropical jet situated over Oregon and Northern California, keeping conditions dry. High level clouds will increase this weekend as an offshore trough approaches the California/Oregon coast and spread moisture northward. Precipitation looks to remain south of eastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle, but there could be stray sprinkles or light rain across the Blues and Camas Prairie. Model guidance is in good agreement regarding an upper-level ridge building into the Pacific Northwest Monday and Tuesday as the trough digs moves through southern Idaho/Nevada/Utah. This will support a gradual warming trend into the early week. Temperatures are expected to peak Tuesday, with widespread highs in the 50s. The warmest spots will be in the lower elevations along the Snake River and in the L-C Valley where there is a 70+% chance for high temperatures of 60 or greater Tuesday afternoon. Tuesday night through Friday: A break in the quiet weather pattern is anticipated Tuesday night into Wednesday with the arrival of an upper-level trough. Models are in great agreement on the presence of this trough, with the greatest uncertainty in the exact strength and the resulting precipitation totals and wind magnitude. A strong westerly flow will favor orographic precipitation, with the 10th-90th percentile QPF range for the mountains between 0.50 and 1.5 inches. A pronounced rain shadow is expected across the Columbia Basin and the lee of the Cascades, where totals will likely remain below 0.10 inches. For the rising terrain of far eastern Washington, totals may range between 0.10 and 0.50 inches. Thermal profiles suggest snow levels initially near to slightly above pass level, favoring rain or a rain/snow mix at pass levels before lowering Wednesday morning in the Cascades and Wednesday evening for the Idaho Panhandle. Probabilistic snow totals for the passes remain wide due to the showery nature of post-frontal precipitation with current ranges (10th-90th percentile) between 1 to 9 inches for Stevens Pass and 1 to 5 inches for Lookout Pass. This would result in a period of winter travel conditions over the passes. Instability will increase Wednesday afternoon as the cold pool aloft (500mb temperatures near -29C) moves in behind the front and steepens lapse rates. Model soundings do suggest the atmosphere could destabilize enough to support charge separation with equilibrium level (EL) temperatures below -20C and some CAPE between -10C and -20C. This environment favors spring- like, graupel showers. Confidence is low in the lightning potential with a 5-10% chance for Spokane county to the central Panhandle and areas south. A weak shortwave will quickly slide into the PNW on the leading edge of an offshore ridge into Thursday, with mountain snow showers resulting in periods of winter driving conditions over the passes. Uncertainty increases toward the weekend on the evolution of the next weather system. Models are in good agreement for the offshore ridge to nose into the PNW, bringing drier conditions late Thursday into Friday, though there could be some lingering mountain showers. Into the weekend, about 60% of ensemble members favor a stronger ridge, which would deflect the subsequent trough northward and result in a milder, drier outcome. The remaining 40% suggest a weaker ridge, allowing the trough to dig further south into the region with increased precipitation, cooler temperatures, and stronger winds. /vmt && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS: VFR conditions will continue through the period with middle and high level clouds. Light surface winds. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 50 29 51 31 52 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 48 29 51 30 52 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 51 33 52 33 51 34 / 0 0 10 10 10 0 Lewiston 55 37 55 38 56 36 / 0 0 10 10 10 0 Colville 50 27 51 28 52 30 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 46 28 48 29 48 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 49 31 52 33 50 33 / 0 0 0 0 10 0 Moses Lake 54 30 54 30 55 34 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 54 33 52 35 56 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 52 30 51 33 52 35 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

541 FXUS66 KPDT 280520 CCA AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 920 PM PST Fri Feb 27 2026 .UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Through This Afternoon, expected snow will be little more than a trace up on the ridge tops in Kittitas County from a few showers. The remainder of the area was under sunny sky with the exception of a narrow band of broken cirrus spreading west to east into central Oregon. Breezy to windy and relatively dry conditions are the focus for the forecast Today as high pressure is anchored over the region. Downsloping surface winds have adiabatically warmed temperatures across the Columbia Basin into the low 60s in spots, with highs in the mid 50s in most of the valleys. Short term breezy dry conditions will be replaced with a couple of rounds of precipitation late Saturday Night and again around Wednesday. Increasing clouds on Saturday will limit high temperatures to the lower 50s across the Columbia Basin, and 40s across the Lower Slopes of the WA Cascades. The latest run of the NBM has also backed off intensity of high level snow amounts across the East Slopes of the Oregon Cascades and the Ochoco John Day Highlands, while creating more uncertainty with respect to onset, anywhere from Saturday evening to sometime Sunday. Mean NBM precipitation amounts of a trace up to around 0.10 on Sunday evening followed by a return to dry conditions across the entire forecast area through Tuesday. As the high pressure weakens and local microclimate pressure gradients begin to become more impacting, we see the NBM showing stronger winds up to 20 knots in that zone and a 90th percentile showing 30 knots sustained could be in the range of outcomes. So far the GFS/GEFS are showing a weak signal not indicative of high winds. Another wet period is looking more likely (90%) on Tuesday Night into Wednesday as the ensembles bring in a broad trough with a mid level cold pool and a 100-250 kg/ms IVT atmospheric river broadly inland across the Columbia Basin. With the colder air aloft, snow levels will be coming down (to around the 4,000ft AGL level to promote the return of mountain snows for the eastern slopes of WA and OR Cascades as and to below 5000 ft for the Wallowas. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... VFR conditions prevail for all sites. Cloud coverage will begin increasing around 08Z tonight for KDLS, KRDM, and KBDN. KPDT, KYKM, KALW, and KPSC may see clouds develop around 11Z/12Z Sunday morning (40-50% confidence). Sunday will be a cloudy day for all sites with few-ovc clouds at 25.0kft. Winds will be less than 10kts for this TAF period. Feaster/97 && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 32 52 34 52 / 0 0 10 10 ALW 35 52 36 52 / 0 0 0 10 PSC 30 53 32 55 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 30 52 32 55 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 31 52 34 54 / 0 0 0 10 ELN 30 49 29 50 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 27 55 33 52 / 0 20 20 30 LGD 32 57 35 57 / 0 0 10 30 GCD 32 56 36 57 / 0 20 30 50 DLS 34 52 36 55 / 0 0 10 20 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...71 AVIATION...97

098 FXUS65 KREV 272210 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 210 PM PST Fri Feb 27 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Unseasonably mild through Saturday with light winds and valley inversions persisting. High flows continue on streams/rivers. * Showers chances this weekend with 15-30% chances for thunderstorms across NE California/NW Nevada on Saturday. * Shower chances through Monday, but decreasing T-storm chances. Unsettled weather continues mid-week with a series of spring- like systems bringing chances of rain and mountain snow showers. && .DISCUSSION... Temperatures will feel more like early May than late February through Saturday as high temperatures warm to 10-15F above average. This equates to highs in the upper 60s to around 70 for warmer W.Nevada valleys and mid to upper 50s for Sierra valleys. The weather pattern into next week will feel rather spring-like as a series of weaker low pressure systems sweep through the region. The first of these on Saturday will provide increased chances for showers and 15-30% chance of thunderstorms mainly northward of I-80 into Lassen and far northern Washoe County. Snow levels will be quite high (>9500`) so it will mainly be rain for all elevations outside of small hail or pellet showers in stronger shower or thunderstorm cells. Sierra ridgetops will also become gusty through Sunday with afternoon gusts around 60+ mph. Expect continued light shower chances through Monday with snow levels lowering to 7500-8500` by Sunday, then 6000-7000` by Monday. Overall snowfall potential looks limited during this timeframe with up to 3 inches along the Sierra crest. After a lull on Tuesday, an unsettled pattern will resume around the middle of next week as another series of spring-like lows drift through the region. Additional chances for rain and mountain showers will be possible with each passage along with cooler, but seasonable temperatures. Fuentes. && .AVIATION... 20% chance for FZFG at KTRK but increasing mid-level clouds may keep coverage patchy and shallow. Shower and isolated thunderstorm chances return on Saturday with an incoming low pressure system. Expect 10-15% chances of isolated thunderstorms for KTRK, KTVL, KRNO, KCXP, and KMEV. Higher chances expected north across NE California with 30% chance at KSVE. Winds aloft (FL100 winds 30-35 kts). Fuentes && .AVALANCHE... Weather impacts to avalanche center terrain will be dominated by continued warm temperatures through Saturday, followed by a windy, showery period late Saturday through Monday with limited high- elevation snowfall. * Snow Levels/SLR/SWE: Snow levels remain very high through Saturday evening (9500-10000 ft), then fall to around 6500-7500 ft Sunday night into Monday. Probabilities of at least 1 inch of snowfall above 8000 ft are around 10-20% in the Tahoe Basin, and 30-40% chance through Alpine and Mono County during this time period, with SLRs on the order of 5:1 increasing to 8-10:1 by Monday morning. Overall SWE contributions remain modest, roughly 0.10-0.30 inches along the Sierra crest through Monday. * Winds: Southwest ridgetop winds increase sharply late Saturday morning through Saturday evening, with gusts 50-60 mph likely. Winds remain breezy into Sunday, gradually easing Monday. * Lightning: Saturday afternoon/evening carries a 15-20% chance of thunderstorm Saturday afternoon, with a 10-15% through Alpine County and less than <5% along the Mono County crest. Activity then transitions to more widespread but generally light/scattered showers Sunday into Monday. Fuentes && .HYDROLOGY... All rivers and streams in the area have crested, but flows remain elevated and may respond quickly to continued snowmelt with warm temperatures and any weekend showers/thunderstorms, especially smaller creeks and steams. Use extra caution near rivers and creeks. Prolonged high flows may lead to unstable banks and erosion. No new flooding is forecast, check for river forecasts and observations at www.cnrfc.noaa.gov -TB && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$

906 FXUS66 KSTO 272142 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 142 PM PST Fri Feb 27 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms mainly over the northern Sacramento Valley, foothills and mountains this weekend into Monday, otherwise dry weather prevails - Warming conditions likely over the next week with above normal temperatures - Light showers over the northern Sacramento Valley, foothills and mountains on Wednesday, followed by breezy north to east winds Thursday-Friday && .DISCUSSION... ...Today... Warm and dry weather prevails across the area as ridging remains in place. Forecast highs are expected to be in the 70s in the Valley and foothills, and 50s to 70s in the mountains. Patchy fog may develop tonight into Saturday morning, mainly across portions of the southern Sacramento and northern San Joaquin valleys. ...Saturday - Sunday... Ensemble guidance indicates an upper level low approaching the West Coast and moving into California this weekend into early next week. This will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area with best chances over the northern/central Sacramento Valley and in the foothills and mountains. The National Blend of Models (NBM) shows roughly a 15-40% chance of thunderstorms on Saturday and a 10-30% chance on Sunday over those aforementioned locations with best chances to see storms from 1 PM - 9 PM, potentially lingering into the overnight hours. Heavy downpours, gusty winds, and potentially severe hail are the main threats with any thunderstorms that develop. Very light high elevation mountain snow is possible above 6500 feet late Sunday into Monday, with amounts generally less than 2 inches at the highest peaks. Warmer than average temperatures are also favored to continue over this timeframe with highs generally in the 60s to 70s in the Valley and foothills, and 50s to 70s in the mountains. ...Monday-Tuesday... Lingering showers are expected over the Sierra through Monday, otherwise dry weather is anticipated as ridging builds back into the region briefly. Afternoon highs in the 60s throughout the Valley with fairly quiet weather. ...Mid to Late Week... A trough moving into the Pacific Northwest clips the area by mid- week, bringing some light showers to the northern Sacramento Valley, foothills and mountains north of Highway 50 on Wednesday. Dry conditions return on Thursday, with breezy north to east winds developing behind the system. NBM probabilities of wind gusts greater than 30 mph sit around 50-70% for Thursday, with the highest chances along and west of I-5 and mountains. && .AVIATION... General VFR conditions with light north to east winds until 06z Saturday before patchy MVFR conditions from mist with a low chance of IFR to LIFR conditions impacting the Sacramento area (SMF, MCC, MHR, and SAC) from 10z to 15z Saturday. Chances for vicinity showers over N Sac Valley (KRDD) near 18z Saturday ahead scattered showers and thunderstorms afterwards. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

619 FXUS65 KMSO 280859 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 159 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Localized light rain and mountain snow showers to the southern half of the forecast area Sunday afternoon into Monday. - Widespread precipitation arrives Wednesday with snow levels initially around 5,000 ft. The backdoor cold front that threatened to spill over the Continental Divide has largely been repelled, leaving dry and mild conditions in place west of the Divide. Aside from a few lingering snow showers and a wind shift at Marias Pass this morning. Elsewhere: High pressure will lead to dry conditions, less wind, and high temperatures reaching the 40s to low 50s in the lower valleys today. Sunday through Monday: Confidence is increasing in a subtle shift for our southern regions. Dynamic models are now in better agreement that a warm front will clip the southern half of the forecast area (specifically north-central Idaho, Lemhi County and southwest Montana). Expect increasing clouds and a 30-40% chance of light showers starting Sunday afternoon. This will likely manifest as light rain in the valleys, with light snow for the higher peaks. Tuesday: The mild trend continues as the ridge of high pressure reaches its peak strength. This will likely be the warmest day of the week for many locations. Cloud cover will begin to increase from the west late in the day ahead of the next change in the weather pattern. Wednesday and Thursday: A dip in the jet stream will bring a Pacific trough across the Northern Rockies. Rain and snow showers will return to the forecast. Initially, snow levels will be high (near 5,000 feet) before dropping back to at or near valley floors by Thursday morning as cooler air filters in behind the system. Westerly winds will become breezy once again, especially across the higher terrain and the Continental Divide. Friday through Next Weekend: Unsettled northwest flow looks to persist into the following weekend. While no major storms are immediately apparent, weak disturbances will keep hit-or-miss snow showers in the mountains. We are also monitoring long-range signals for a potential Arctic intrusion towards the end of the first week of March, though confidence in that specific timing remains low. && .AVIATION... Much colder conditions are being observed just east of the Divide which may briefly spill west of the Divide this morning, and a few snow showers are possible in the Glacier Region. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the next 24 hours. Patchy morning fog is possible in the sheltered valleys of north- central Idaho and northwest Montana on Sunday morning, but coverage will be limited. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

489 FXUS65 KBOI 280406 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 906 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2026 .DISCUSSION...Dry, mostly clear, and cold conditions will return for the region tonight. Above normal temperatures will continue through Sunday thanks to a building ridge of high pressure. Early morning low temperatures tonight will be slightly warmer than this morning, especially in mountain valleys. A low pressure system is still on track to bring precipitation and cooler temperatures tomorrow evening into Sunday. Afternoon thunderstorms are possible (<20% chance) near the Nevada border. No updates needed to the forecast. && .AVIATION...VFR. Showers arriving in SE Oregon/SW Idaho from Nevada Saturday afternoon, creating local MVFR ceilings and mountain obscuration. Snow levels: 7000-8500 ft MSL during shower activity. A 15% chance of afternoon lightning in S Harney County. Surface winds: variable 5-15 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: westerly 10-30 kt. KBOI...VFR. SE up to 8 kt, then light and variable Saturday afternoon. Sunday Outlook...Showers expanding northward Sunday. A 15% chance of lightning near NV border. MVFR-IFR developing in mtn snow and heavier rain showers. Mtns obscured. Snow levels: 6-8kft MSL, lower for north. Surface winds: SW-SE 5-15 kt, gusts up to 30 kt with storms. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night...High clouds will continue to hug the NV border overnight, with mostly clear skies to the north. An upper low approaching the northern CA coast will push clouds further north on Saturday. Light precipitation will break out along a warm front late Saturday into Sunday. The front will weaken as it lifts north resulting in liquid totals less than 0.10 inches for most spots from the Snake Plain into the Boise and west-central Idaho Mountains. Areas to the south and west will see higher amounts with a range of 0.1-0.3 inches through Sunday night. Snow levels will rise to between 6-8kft MSL by Sunday afternoon. Snow accumulation will be less than an inch at all but the highest elevations in the Steens. Southern areas along the NV border will see an uptick in the chance of thunderstorms Sat/Sun afternoon. For now the NBM keeps the threat at less than 15%, though some high resolution models are showing signs of t-storm development across SE Oregon Sat/Sat night, spreading eastward along the ID/NV border on Sunday. Temperatures will remain 5-10 degrees above normal through the weekend. LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...Precipitation chances from the upper-level trough will linger into Monday as the system moves further east into the Great Basin. Snow levels will remain high with values ranging from 6000-7500 feet MSL. Brief upper- level ridging builds in Tuesday before another upper-level trough moves across the Pacific NW. Temperatures Tuesday will be the warmest of the period, with low 60s across parts the Snake Basin. Ensembles bring a potent cold front through the area on Wednesday afternoon, with snow levels falling to 3500-4500 feet MSL by Thursday. Snow showers continue over the higher terrain Thursday with the cold unstable air aloft. Conditions dry out on Friday between systems. A return to cool and unsettled by the following weekend. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise DISCUSSION...SA AVIATION.....SH SHORT TERM...DG LONG TERM....CH

254 FXUS65 KLKN 272001 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1201 PM PST Fri Feb 27 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... 1201 PM PST Fri Feb 27 2026 * Unseasonably warm today through Sunday * Periods of mountain snow and valley rain Saturday afternoon through Monday night * Much cooler Monday * Colder storm system Wednesday and Thursday && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through Thursday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A ridge of high pressure will progress eastward across the Silver State tonight. West to southwest flow will advect Pacific moisture across Northern Nevada Saturday afternoon through the remainder of the weekend. Precipitation chances will remain highest north of the Highway 50 corridor. Snow levels will be around 8,000 feet or higher. Here are chances of one tenth of an inch or more of rain for select locations in Northern Nevada Saturday afternoon through Sunday night: Denio - 93% Owyhee - 84% West Wendover - 83% Lamoille - 75% Spring Creek - 72% Wells - 71% Winnemucca - 70% Battle Mountain - 64% Jackpot - 64% Elko - 62% A trough of low pressure will progress eastward over Northern and Central Nevada Monday into Monday night, resulting in increased precipitation amounts. Snow levels will drop to about 6,500 feet Monday night, so precipitation types will remain rain in the valleys and snow in the mountains. High temperatures throughout Northern and Central Nevada Monday afternoon will be eleven to thirteen degrees cooler than Sunday afternoon. There will be a brief period of anticyclonic flow aloft Tuesday, before a colder storm system impacts the service area Wednesday and Thursday. Snow levels could fall to the valley floor Wednesday night. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence regarding unseasonably warm weather today through Sunday. High forecast confidence in periods of mountain snow and valley rain Saturday afternoon through Monday night. Moderate forecast confidence regarding much cooler weather Monday. Low forecast confidence in a colder storm system Wednesday and Thursday. No deviations from the NBM model output. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals for at least the next 24 hours, with light to gentle breezes. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 87