994 FXUS66 KSEW 170348 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 848 PM PDT Sat May 16 2026 .SYNOPSIS...A cold upper level trough will continue to pass through western Washington through Sunday morning as showers taper off tonight. An upper level ridge will build offshore thereafter, with western Washington remaining on the backside of the ridge throughout much of next week. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...Lingering showers will continue to taper off tonight into early Sunday morning. The Winter Weather Advisory continues generally south of I-90 above 4000 feet into tonight. Otherwise, cooler conditions into Sunday morning may allow for patchy frost to develop around Shelton and south of Olympia. The upper level trough will shift southeastward by Sunday morning, with an upper level ridge building offshore. Conditions across much of western Washington will dry out despite a mostly cloudy morning and some sun breaks in the afternoon. Wrap around moisture may result in lingering shower activity across the North Cascades with little to no accumulation. Cooler temperatures will continue across the region on Sunday, with highs peaking in the low 60s across much of the lowlands. Low clouds are favored to develop across much of the lowlands again into Monday morning as high pressure builds into the region. The clouds are favored to break up for most areas by the afternoon, with near normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions for Monday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...Ensembles remain in good agreement over high pressure remaining situated offshore through much of next week. A series of low pressure systems will move inland next week, but are favored to split apart or stay north of the Washington/Canada border. Conditions across western Washington are favored to remain mostly dry through the forecast period with near normal temperatures. JD/15 && .AVIATION...The trough continues to move south, generally ending showers for most of western Washington. Areas of the southern Washington Cascades will see showers continue over the next several hours. Areas of northern Puget Sound are generally west to northwest, with southwesterly winds returning to central and southern Puget Sound. Winds outside of this area will remain out of the southwest- northwest 5-10 kt with a few gusts to 20 kt for terminals near waters. VFR/MVFR ceilings are likely Sunday morning before clearing in the afternoon. KSEA...Showers have ended for the terminal and immediate vicinity. Surface winds have returned to a south to southwesterly, and will linger as such throughout the night between 4-7 kts. MVFR cigs possible between 13Z-16Z tomorrow morning before returning to VFR in the afternoon. Northerly winds 4-6 kts returning after 18Z Sunday, lingering through the rest of the TAF period. 21 && .MARINE...Gusty winds will continue with the onshore flow for the coastal waters, Strait of Juan de Fuca and Admiralty Inlet. There remains a chance of a brief gale gust in the eastern section of the strait early this evening. The onshore push will diminish late tonight/Sunday morning. The pattern will remain onshore as high pressure builds back over the waters Sunday. Another weak front will pass through Monday into Tuesday. Continual pushes of winds down the Strait of Juan de Fuca remain likely through midweek. Seas of 8-11 ft will continue in the coastal waters through early Sunday (with rough bar conditions). They will drop back to 6-8 ft later Sunday through Tuesday before increasing to 8-10 ft Wednesday, and then dropping to 5-6 ft through the end of the week. HPR/21 && .HYDROLOGY...The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the start of the next rainy season; it will only be updated during this time as needed. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM PDT Sunday for Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of Southern King County. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Admiralty Inlet- Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Grays Harbor Bar. Small Craft Advisory until midnight PDT tonight for West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Sunday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. && $$

735 FXUS66 KPQR 170457 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 957 PM PDT Sat May 16 2026 Updated Aviation Discussion... .SYNOPSIS...Showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will diminish tonight. Above 3500 feet including at the major Cascade passes, snowfall will continue to accumulate while showers persist, and Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect along the Cascades through this evening. A warming and drying trend is then expected from Sunday through the workweek. && .DISCUSSION...Now through Friday night...An upper-level shortwave overhead will continue to support numerous rain and mountain snow showers this afternoon and evening. As mid-level temperatures within the trough reach their coldest values of -2C to -3C this evening, peak instability (surface-based CAPE values of 100-250 J/kg) will result in a 15-35% chance of isolated thunderstorms, but their overall intensity will be limited by the low buoyancy and their shallow nature as equilibrium levels struggle to reach 500 hPa. Thundershowers may nonetheless produce brief heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail. Those recreating outdoors should seek shelter if thunder is heard. Cold air arriving aloft has seen snow levels fall to around 4000 ft this afternoon, and they are expected to further fall to between 3500 ft by late this evening. Snowfall continues to accumulate at and above pass level, with a 50% chance of an additional 1-4 inches, and a 20-25% of 6 inches or more, by late this evening. There is a 10% chance of light accumulations as low as 3000 ft elevation. A Winter Weather Advisory therefore remains in effect along the Cascades through 11 PM PDT today as higher elevation road surface are cold enough to support accumulating snow resulting in slippery travel conditions. The trough will exit to the south and east with shower coverage diminishing after midnight. An upper-level ridge building over the Northeastern Pacific will then yield a warming and drying trend through the week. Weak upper shortwaves may continue to track overhead as the ridge amplifies and shifts eastward, but ensembles favor only minor, 5% or less, chances of rain. Uncertainty in the eastward progression of the ridge axis supports increasing uncertainty in potential high temperatures later in the week. Chances to exceed 80 degrees rise from less near 0% on Sunday to 10-25% within inland valleys on Thursday and Friday, with a more eastward ridge axis favoring a warmer solution, while a more offshore ridge axis may maintain onshore flow and cooler temperatures. -36 && .AVIATION...Scattered rain showers, mostly VFR conditions, and northwesterly winds around 8 kt with occasional gusts up to 20 kt continue as of 04Z Sun. Expect rain showers to taper off from north to south, winds become light, and current 10-20% chances of MVFR conditions to lower towards 06-08Z Sun. Beyond 06-08Z Sun, expect dry conditions and VFR conditions through at least 06Z Mon. Around 18-21Z Sun, northwesterly winds will increase to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20-25 kt at the coast and 7-10 kt with gusts up to 17-20 kt possible at inland terminals. Greatest chances for the upper end of these winds and wind gusts are located to the south, around KONP and KEUG. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR through at least 06Z Mon. Scattered rain showers will taper off by 06-08Z Sun. Northwesterly winds around 8 kt become light by 06-08Z Sun, then increase to 7-9 kt by 18-21Z Sun. ~12 && .MARINE... Scattered showers continue to taper off as of early tonight. A mid- period northwest swell will support seas to around 10 to 12 ft, then gradually subsiding back below 10 ft by early Sunday. The Small Craft Advisory remains in place for all waters through 2 AM Sunday. The Small Craft for the Columbia River Bar has been extended to 8 AM for a very strong ebb current expected to peak around 530 AM Sunday morning. Strong ebb currents for the Columbia River Bar are expected during the morning hours into next week, potentially yielding steep and hazardous seas for small craft crossing area bars through much of the week. North to northwesterly winds return Sunday into early next week while seas ease to around 4 to 8 ft as high pressure builds offshore. Sunday afternoon, northerly winds increase to over 21 kt gusts over the inner waters from Cape Foulweather OR to Florence OR, therefore have issued a Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM Sunday. These gusty winds may reach beyond 10 NM from Cape Foulweather to Florence OR. Otherwise, winds will be strongest across the central Oregon coastal waters each afternoon and evening. ~12/19/DH && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PDT Sunday for ORZ126>128. WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PDT Sunday for WAZ211. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ210. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ251>253- 271>273. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ253. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

379 FXUS66 KMFR 170549 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1049 PM PDT Sat May 16 2026 .Updated AVIATION and MARINE Discussions... && .AVIATION...17/06Z TAFs...VFR conditions prevail across the region with gusty northwest to north winds. Scattered showers persist from the Rogue-Umpqua Divide north and westward. Overall, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, including along the coast and over the coastal waters. Winds will generally trend lower tonight, but a potent shortwave moving through the region tonight will maintain breezy north winds. This shortwave will bring a round light showers to the Coast and Umpqua Basin, with some light snow to areas east of the Cascades. Freezing levels will lower to around 3500 ft by the morning. Stronger north to northeast winds are expected to develop area wide Sunday morning and persist through the afternoon, with gusts peaking around 25-30 kt during the afternoon. && .MARINE...Updated 900 PM PDT Saturday, May 16, 2026...Northwest swell will slowly lower through Sunday, but steep seas will linger south of Cape Blanco due to strong north winds. These strong north winds Sunday and Monday will result in steep to very steep seas, with the strongest winds and highest seas south of Cape Blanco. Steep to very steep seas will persist through next week as north winds strengthen and increase wind waves. Through this stretch, winds and waves will peak each afternoon and evening with wave heights around 10 to 15 feet in the outer waters south of Gold Beach. As a result, seas will be hazardous to small craft through much of next week at the very least, but we could see further hazards if wind speeds continue to trend higher. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 442 PM PDT Sat May 16 2026/ DISCUSSION... Scattered showers continue to move through the forecast area this afternoon as cool moist air moves in over areas with sufficient surface heating. The trough to our north is also helping produce some vertical lift. Not a lot of rain is accumulating under these showers with liquid accumulation under 0.1 inches for a lot of surface stations. Look for an additional few hundreths under these showers for the remainder of the evening hours. By tonight, weather concerns and impacts remain very low as the upper level trough traverses the region. Temperatures trend lower compared to yesterday with lows in the mid to upper 30`s in many valleys west of the Cascades and upper 20`s east of the Cascades. During Sunday, it will be another cool day as the upper trough departs, although PoPs will be 0 as some drier north east winds fill into southern Oregon and northern California. Lows will trend a bit lower Sunday night as drier cooler air flows into the region. There is some risk of frost in the valleys overnight, although the latest forecast has lows in the upper 30`s here in Medford. It looks like some of our cooler spots, like Provolt and the Applegate could see frost Sunday night. By Monday, high pressure begins to build in the Pacific with 500 mb heights increasing over our area. Temperatures will respond by warming into the 70`s across the forecast area, almost a 10 degree trend warmer compared to Sunday. This ridge will remain in place for most of next week with some stronger north west to northerly breezes during the afternoon as the pressure gradient strengthens during the afternoon and evening. There is also some hints at a thermal trough building Wednesday night into Thursday. That should make Thursday or perhaps Friday our warmest days, and indeed the NBM is forecasting highs of 90 degrees Friday here in Medford, which is the warmest in the week. The models become more progressive towards the tail end of the weekend and there are some hints of some wetter weather on Memorial Day. It looks like 30% of the ensemble members are pushing a cold front through the region with some wetting rain. So definitely hints of rain of a more progressive pattern for the the last week of May. -Smith && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Hazardous Seas Warning from 2 PM Sunday to 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ350-370. && $$

444 FXUS66 KEKA 170722 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 1222 AM PDT Sun May 17 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Gusty north winds each afternoon will be the highlight of the forecast through the weekend with otherwise mild and sunny conditions. Winds will weaken with warmer conditions early this coming week. && .KEY MESSAGES... -Strong north winds will continue for one more day, today into Monday, with peak gusts near 40 mph. -Generally clear skies and dry conditions, even along shore, through early this coming week. -Slightly cooler conditions will continue today, before warming through this coming week. && .DISCUSSION...While a trough continues to move through to the north, a strong ridge of high pressure will continue to build into the region. A pressure gradient will tighten and align along shore as high pressure continues to build. This will continue to bring unusually strong northwest winds today along the coast and across most higher terrain areas of the interior. North winds will gust near 40 mph in exposed areas this afternoon. Winds will be stubbornly consistent and widespread in the afternoon, though gusts will most likely stay below advisory criteria with limited potential for impacts or damage. Marine influence will dampen for most interior areas of interior Mendocino, Trinity and Lake counties, leading to lower Min RHs in those areas today. High temperatures will remain more seasonal to cool today with temperatures rebounding into this coming week. High pressure will push inland today and into early next week. Today, the strongest North winds will shift towards the Sacramento Valley while winds will remain breezy near shore. Winds in Lake County are anticipated to gust over 40 mph at high elevations and along the rim of the Sacramento Valley. At the same time, north winds will pull more air from the interior, promoting very dry conditions, especially far from the coast. Coastal conditions will remain mostly clear and dry. Winds will begin to weaken Monday through mid week as high pressure settles further onshore and weakens. Conditions will remain very dry with interior highs gradually approaching the 90s by Thursday. Any HeatRisk currently minor at most. A building inversion and weaker winds will likely allow a very shallow and weak marine layer to begin reforming onshore, though offshore flow overnight will generally limit the extent of any stratus and allow it to clear during the day. Some moderate north wind will remain close to shore but be much weaker for the interior. Models diverge on the pattern late next week. Most models show a trough of some description moving over the Pacific around next weekend with a cutoff low off the central California coast, though the relative strength of either is uncertain. Cooler temperatures are near certain, but moisture is highly uncertain. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected to persist through today for terminals in Northwest California. Breezy north winds will continue early this morning with winds picking up this afternoon and into the evening. Early this morning, winds will remain higher aloft, leading to LLWS for ACV and UKI. Northerly gusts from 25 to 35 knots can be expected. && .MARINE...Near-Gale to Gale Force northerly winds continue across the waters today through early this coming week as the pressure gradient tightens (peaking this afternoon). Gale force gusts around 34-45 kts expected across all zones, with the strongest winds downwind of Cape Mendocino. A Gale Warning is in effect for all coastal zones. Steep to very steep, hazardous seas will continue to build with the increasing winds, peaking to 11-17 feet today. By Monday, the pressure gradient will relax slightly with the strongest winds moving off shore. However, conditions will remain hazardous across the waters for much of the workweek with strong to gale force gusts and steep to very steep seas./ZVS && .FIRE WEATHER...High pressure will shift more onshore today. Strong afternoon winds will continue, but the focus of stronger winds will shift closer to the rim of the Sacramento Valley, especially in Lake County. Winds will pull in drier air today, supporting very dry afternoon conditions in eastern Mendocino, Trinity, and Lake Counties with minimum RH near 15 percent. Overnight RH recovery will continue to worsen with upper elevation recoveries very poor by Monday morning. Winds will begin to weaken early week but very dry conditions will remain with increasing day time temperatures. All that said, fuels generally retain a spring character. Although ERC values are forecast to jump up near record values for May, grasses remain mostly green for all locations but some of the hottest valleys in Lake and Mendocino Counties. Heavier fuels are retaining moderate moisture. Despite critical weather variables, fuels are very unlikely to support extreme fire at this time, hence a Red Flag Warning is not currently expected for these conditions in Lake, Trinity, or Mendocino Counties. This event, however, will likely push fuel towards a drier and more conducive state for fire in the coming weeks. /JHW && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Monday for PZZ450-455. Gale Warning until 10 PM PDT Monday for PZZ470-475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

042 FXUS66 KMTR 170425 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 925 PM PDT Sat May 16 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 115 PM PDT Sat May 16 2026 - Breezy to windy conditions, especially along the immediate coast, will result in hazardous beach conditions through Monday - Hazardous marine conditions expected through the weekend - Elevated fire weather concerns continue through Monday across the interior with low humidities and strong gusts && .UPDATE... Issued at 920 PM PDT Sat May 16 2026 Water vapor imagery shows a broad trough of low pressure over the West this evening, with another disturbance digging into the Great Basin this evening. As a result, pressure gradients strengthened once again this afternoon. The SFO-ACV gradient peaked at -10.8 mbs, while the SFO-LAS gradient peaked at 15.7. Meanwhile, several coastal sites have been gusting between 45 and 55 mph this afternoon and evening, with the strongest gust up to this point at Point Reyes peaking with 61 mph. Therefore, the Wind Advisory looks like it is verifying well, especially for coastal Marin and San Mateo Counties. The Big Sur Coast has also been gusting in the 40s mph range, with Coast Road peaking at 48 mph. For now, plan to let the Wind Advisory ride, even though it seems like the higher gusts are becoming less frequent than earlier. Not to leave out the coastal waters, the Bodega Bay Buoy has been steadily gusting around 50 mph and the San Francisco Buoy has been gusting around 45 mph. The Monterey Buoy has also be gusting around 40 mph. Needless to say, it hasn`t been a pleasant day to be out on our waters. The winds will remain the primary concern of the short term though, as the gradient goes from onshore tonight to more offshore Sunday into Monday, as another disturbance digs into the Great Basin. Will need to look closely to see if we need another Wind Advisory for the North and East Bay Mountains. Otherwise, expect one more relatively cool day across the region tomorrow, with a warming trend expected for the first part of the work week. Palmer && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 115 PM PDT Sat May 16 2026 (This evening through Sunday) Low pressure along the British Columbia coastline early this afternoon will push into the Intermountain West throughout the evening and into the overnight. This will tighten the pressure gradient across the San Francisco Bay Area and Central Coast. Thus, expecting the strongest winds to be along the coast and in the higher terrain across the region. Therefore, a Wind Advisory remains in effect through 5 AM Sunday morning along the coast excluding the Santa Cruz region for northwesterly winds of 20-30 mph with gusts as strong as 55 mph (especially along the immediate coast and in the higher terrain). For Sunday, expecting another disturbance rotate through the large scale trough and dig into the Great Basin once again. This will maintain a moderate to strong pressure gradient across the region with winds becoming offshore (northerly or northeasterly) in the higher terrain. Forecast temperatures for Sunday will be similar to or slightly warmer than today. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 115 PM PDT Sat May 16 2026 (Sunday night through next Friday) A broad trough will remain over the Intermountain West through the early part of the workweek, yet is forecast to shift farther to the east. This will weaken the pressure gradient from much of the Bay Area and Central Coast by Monday night and into Tuesday. The one caveat, how deep will the marine layer be heading into early week. Temperatures have the potential to be 10 degrees F cooler along the coast and into the adjacent coastal valleys where low clouds (if they develop) will be slow to dissipate. By midweek, high pressure will begin to build in from the eastern Pacific leading to an inland warming trend. Meanwhile, as the marine layer is likely to deepen during this timeframe, cooler conditions will prevail near the coast and their adjacent valley locations. By the end of the week, ensembles are hinting at another trough approaching the West Coast and cooling temperatures regionwide. However, less confidence in the extended. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 924 PM PDT Sat May 16 2026 Currently VFR at all terminals with the exception of some haze being observed at HAF and SNS. High confidence in VFR through the TAF period; however, haze will reduce slant range visibilities. Strong and gusty onshore winds will relatively diminish overnight before veering and strengthening towards the end of the TAF period. Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with gusty westerly flow. High confidence in VFR through the TAF period. Strong and gusty westerly winds with gusts up to 35 knots are expected through 07Z. Winds will veer tomorrow to become northwesterly by the afternoon and northerly by late tomorrow night with gusts up to 30 knots expected. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently MVFR with southerly flow at MRY and MVFR with gusty southwesterly flow at SNS. Both terminals are observing OVC020; however, a look outside the office which is located adjacent to MRY shows VFR. The ceilometer is likely observing the inversion with lofted sea spray trapped beneath it. Aside from that, high confidence in VFR through the TAF period. Gusty onshore winds are expected through the TAF period. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 924 PM PDT Sat May 16 2026 Widespread hazardous conditions are expected to continue through the weekend. Near gale force to gale force northerly breezes with widespread severe gale force gusts are expected through the weekend. Storm force gusts are expected across the northern outer waters and along the coastal jet region of Big Sur through tonight. Rough to very rough seas have built as a result. Conditions will slowly begin to improve Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 115 PM PDT Sat May 16 2026 Strong and gusty north to northwest winds continue to build through Saturday before becoming north to northeast by Sunday in the higher terrain. Expect peak gusts greater than 30 mph for most areas, with around 45 to 55 mph along the coast, through gaps and passes, and across the ridgelines. Daytime humidity retention will fall to 10- 25% across the interior regions and higher peaks, with limited overnight humidity recoveries. Strong winds persist into the early part of Monday before diminishing, but humidities will be slow to recover as a modest offshore flow continues into the early part of the week. RGass && .BEACHES... Issued at 140 AM PDT Sat May 16 2026 A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for west facing beaches along the Pacific Coast through 9 AM Monday due to strong winds over the marine environment leading to hazardously strong wind waves and overall rough seas. Dangerous swimming, boating, and surfing conditions can be expected. Large breaking waves can overpower swimmers resulting in significant physical injury and increase the risk of drowning. Gusts will stay strong along the immediate coast, causing blowing and drifting sand and increased sea spray. Water rescue attempts may be hampered by reduced visibilities from the sea spray. Remember, NEVER turn your back on the ocean. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for CAZ006-505- 509-530. Wind Advisory until 5 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ006-505-509-530. Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ506. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Gale Warning from 3 AM to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Storm Warning until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Gale Warning from 3 AM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10- 60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....RGass AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

951 FXUS66 KOTX 170752 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1252 AM PDT Sun May 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers with a 20 percent chance for afternoon thunderstorms through Monday and mainly over the mountains. - Cooler overnight temperatures will bring a threat of morning frost Sunday and Monday. This would be impactful to any sensitive plants or crops. - Conditions trend drier and warmer through the workweek. && .SYNOPSIS... Diurnally forced showers with isolated afternoon thunderstorms will continue through Monday. Cold overnight temperatures will bring the threat of frost in the mornings on Sunday and Monday. Precip chances decrease and afternoon highs trend warmer through the workweek, climbing back into the 70s and 80s by Thursday heading into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Thursday night: A deep longwave trough of lower pressure will remain over the CONUS for this weekend through the work week. The axis of this longwave trough will slowly but surely shift eastward from the West this weekend and migrate over the Rockies by Monday through Wednesday and then over the Plains by Thursday into Friday. We will remain conditionally unstable today and diurnal heating will result in an expanding area of convectively forced showers through the afternoon. There will be a lack of support aloft compared to Saturday with more widely scattered convection expected over the higher terrain. Steering flow will be northerly with storms expected to drift off of the northern mountains into the Upper Columbia Basin and over the Spokane Area by mid to late afternoon and the evening hours. Thunderstorms will feature infrequent cloud to ground lightning strikes, pea sized hail, brief downpours, and gusty winds up to 25-30 mph. Speaking of winds, the morning hours for today will see breezy northerly winds down the Okanogan Valley sustained at 15-20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph. Otherwise, winds will be fairly light other than convectively induced outflow winds. There will be less cloud cover as convective showers decay Sunday night into Monday morning. Less cloud cover compared to the past couple of nights will increase the potential for more radiational cooling and a better potential for those colder mountain valleys to drop down near to or below freezing. The Methow Valley, Republic, Colville, Deer Park, Pend Oreille River Valley, Priest River will all see the potential for temperatures of dipping down into the lower 30s into Monday morning. The Spokane Area and Palouse will also see chilly temperatures with lows in the mid to upper 30s. It will be a good idea to bring in or cover sensitive plants to protect them from frost or freeze damage. Areas that will continue to see weak convective potential for CAPE values up to 300-400 J/kg will be the northern mountains and the Idaho Panhandle on Monday. Temperatures aloft do warm a bit more compared to today with the trough axis shifting a little bit further east. This will limit convective potential a bit with showers/thunderstorm coverage expected to be less Sunday into Monday. By mid week (Tuesday through Thursday), I cannot completely rule the potential for showers or even a one hit wonder thunderstorm, but the potential for convection will be limited to the closer to the Canadian border in northeast Washington into the Idaho Panhandle. Otherwise, we are looking at a drying out and gradual warm up of our temperatures for next week. Temperatures warm up above normal by Wednesday with our highs back into the 70s. The risk for morning frost also will decrease as temperatures see a slow warm up next week. Friday through Sunday: Heading into next weekend, model ensembles are in good agreement with a small amplitude ridge of higher pressure nudging in over the region off of the eastern Pacific. This will further decrease our potential for seeing showers and continue the upward trend in our temperatures. Expect widespread high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s for next weekend. /SVH && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFs: A few lingering showers will continue into the overnight hours with a scattered to broken mid level deck of clouds. Much of the region across extreme eastern Washington into the Idaho Panhandle is starting out with dew point depressions within 5 degrees. Breaks in mid level clouds will bring the potential for the surface to radiate and fog to form, especially in the valleys of northeast Washington into the northern Idaho Panhandle. Patchy fog is expected in or within the vicinity of Colville (K63S) to Sandpoint (KSZT), Deer Park (KDEW) and Spokane (KGEG/KSFF) to Coeur d`Alene (KCOE) late tonight through early Sunday morning. A low stratus deck is also expected to form between 10-12Z around KPUW/KLWS to KCOE/KSZT by 10-12Z tonight. Expect IFR to MVFR conditions into the morning hours for these airports. Diurnally forced showers with isolated thunderstorms are expected for Sunday afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is a 60-80 percent chance for MVFR ceilings and a 20-40 percent chance for IFR conditions to develop late tonight into Sunday morning for KPUW/KCOE. For KGEG/KSFF chances are about half those values (30-40 percent chance MVFR, 10-20 percent chance IFR) for late tonight into Sunday morning. The probability for thunderstorms at any one TAF site is too low (less than 20% chance) to mention in the TAF at this time. /SVH ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 63 38 66 41 68 43 / 20 20 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 60 38 64 41 65 44 / 20 30 0 0 0 10 Pullman 57 36 62 39 64 41 / 20 20 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 60 41 67 43 69 46 / 20 30 10 0 0 10 Colville 68 33 69 36 70 38 / 20 20 10 0 10 0 Sandpoint 60 37 63 40 64 42 / 20 30 20 0 10 10 Kellogg 56 36 62 39 64 42 / 50 20 30 0 10 10 Moses Lake 70 41 73 42 74 45 / 0 20 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 70 46 72 48 73 50 / 0 10 10 0 0 0 Omak 70 42 72 44 73 47 / 10 20 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

403 FXUS66 KPDT 170535 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1035 PM PDT Sat May 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mountain snow showers continue through this evening - Slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly Columbia Basin and Blue Mountain foothills - Mostly dry and warming conditions Monday through Friday && .DISCUSSION... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed across the forecast area today as the combination of daytime heating and cooler temperatures aloft under an upper-level low have facilitated steepening low- and mid-level lapse rates. Best chances (15-25 percent) of thunder will be across the lower Columbia Basin and along the Blue Mountain foothills this afternoon and evening, with lower (10-15 percent) chances for the Cascades and Blues of northeast Oregon and far southeast Washington. Small hail, gusty outflow winds, and cloud-to-ground lightning constitute the main hazards with thunderstorms today. Loss of daytime heating should put a damper on the more robust convection by late evening, but forcing from a shortwave rounding the base of the upper low should keep mountain snow showers going into the overnight hours (80 percent confidence). Additional snow accumulations of a trace to several inches are forecast for the Cascades and Blue Mountains this evening into the overnight hours. Widespread breezy to windy westerly winds this afternoon have flirted with advisory criteria for portions of the lower Columbia Basin, eastern Columbia River Gorge, and Blue Mountain foothills, but confidence in sustained advisory criteria across a broad enough region was too low (50 percent) to warrant the issuance of any wind headlines. Winds will slacken overnight. While no headlines for freezing temperatures have been issued, there is low (10-40 percent) confidence in near- to sub-freezing morning lows in the Yakima and Kittitas valleys, lower Columbia Basin, and Blue Mountain foothills Sunday morning. Elsewhere, confidence is higher (40-60 percent) for the Grande Ronde Valley, Simcoe Highlands, and north-central Oregon. Have included a mention of frost in the forecast for the aforementioned areas for messaging. Should cloud cover clear more quickly than forecast this evening, and winds slacken earlier than anticipated, temperatures will have the potential to drop below what is forecast. Monday through Friday, warming temperatures and mostly dry conditions are forecast region-wide as an upper-level ridge of high pressure will likely (80-90 percent chance) dominate the weather. A couple weak shortwaves passing through northwesterly flow aloft may facilitate some showers for the mountains, but PoPs are low (generally 5-15 percent, except 15-25 percent for the northern Blues on Monday). The alternate, less-likely scenario (10-15 percent chance per 12Z ensemble cluster analysis) is for a closed low to dive south from Canada and place the region under cool, showery weather between Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Overall conditions are improving from earlier. VFR conditions prevail over the next 24-hours with 10-20 knot wind gusts. Bulk of the precip has moved out, with a few PROB30`s in BDN/RDM through 08Z. Otherwise, no CIG or VIS issues expected. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 36 64 40 70 / 50 0 10 0 ALW 40 63 44 69 / 60 10 0 0 PSC 38 71 43 75 / 20 0 0 0 YKM 37 71 42 74 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 36 69 41 73 / 20 0 0 0 ELN 34 65 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 26 60 29 68 / 40 0 0 0 LGD 33 55 33 64 / 60 10 0 0 GCD 31 55 31 65 / 60 30 0 0 DLS 39 68 44 73 / 20 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for WAZ522. OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ509. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...95

736 FXUS65 KREV 170811 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 111 AM PDT Sun May 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * A secondary, stronger cold front arrives today bringing gusty northerly winds, even colder temperatures and valley rain and foothill/mountain snow showers mid to late afternoon. * Freezing to near freezing temperatures Monday morning give way to warmer and drier conditions for much of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Get ready for sweaters, pants, jackets and windbreakers today as the second of two weekend fronts swings in today. Additional cooling of around 10-15 degrees will be widespread today, which will lead to a rather chilly late Sunday into Monday morning. Lows may fall below freezing for many western Nevada valleys, and certainly below freezing for Sierra valleys. Precautions for protecting sensitive plants should be taken this afternoon or evening at the latest. While the Reno-Carson-Minden area will be flirting with freezing, there is around a 30% chance to reach those temperatures. Winds will increase out of the northeast today, picking up gusts that could reach up to 55 mph, especially near Mono and Mineral counties. Hazardous travel including bumpy flights and blowing dust as well as crosswinds, and recreation impacts such as choppy lake waters have prompted various Lake Wind Advisories and Wind Advisories across the region. As this front sags south across western Nevada, rain and snow showers above 5000 feet will start to increase in coverage late morning. Amounts should remain light as this is a progressive, fast- moving system. Wetting rains are most possible over the Basin and Range, from east of Lovelock toward Winnemucca (40-90% chances). To the west, from Fernley to Lovelock, chances drop to a range of 20- 40%. There is a bit of frontal interaction that develops showers early afternoon for the east side of the Tahoe Basin to the Pine Nut Mountains, but here again snow amounts will be light to nuisance in nature. Even so, the chance to see snowflakes in the air is best south of US-50 and west of US-95 (30-40%) above 5000 feet. Then, as the front drags into Mineral and Mono counties, the shower chances progress south along the Sierra. By 10-11 PM the bulk of the shower activity has moved toward eastern Nevada and western Utah and out of our region. A chilly start to Monday as mentioned will help to keep temperatures below average through the evening. Temperatures will rebound in earnest by mid week, bringing some 80s back onto our maps. Previous discussions have mentioned the potential for showers to develop next weekend, by we have yet to nail down details for timing, amounts and locations. If we continue to see this pattern in future shifts, confidence will increase and we will begin to draw out some detail for your weekend planning. HRICH && .AVIATION... * Northeasterly surface winds will increase today, with gusts to 50 kts possible near KHTH. Expect turbulence and LLWS to develop after 00z Monday. Blowing dust may be possible for KLOL, KNFL, KHTH today. * Rain shower chances will be highest (25-50%) east of KLOL-KNFL and also at KMMH with snow chances above 5000 feet possible this morning and afternoon. Edan/HRICH && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Monday NVZ002. Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ001. Lake Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning NVZ001. Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ003. Lake Wind Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon NVZ004. CA...Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening CAZ071. Lake Wind Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Monday CAZ072. Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening CAZ073. && $$

372 FXUS66 KSTO 162006 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 106 PM PDT Sat May 16 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - A Red Flag Warning is currently in effect for the Valley and Delta below 1000 feet, and continues until 8 PM Monday. - Critical fire weather concerns for the Valley & Delta, with gusty north winds and low humidity. Strongest winds Saturday night through Sunday along and west of the I-5 corridor. - Above-normal temperatures continue through the forecast period with Minor to Moderate HeatRisk. && .DISCUSSION... ...Today & Sunday... Continued widespread Minor HeatRisk across the Valley today with weak ridging in place over interior NorCal. Highs are expected to be in the low to mid 80s across the Valley, with mountain/foothill highs in the 60s to mid 70s. North to east winds will continue to intensify throughout the day today, with peak wind speeds and gusts expected Sunday. Peak sustained speeds will be in around 20 to 30 mph in the Valley and Delta, with gusts up to 40 to 50 mph. Strongest winds expected along and west of I-5. To this point, we have issued a Wind Advisory for portions of the Valley and Delta from 11pm tonight until 8pm Sunday. Relative humidities trend lower today and again Sunday, with values in the single digits to teens expected in the Valley starting Sunday. Due to these conditions, a Red Flag Warning remains in effect through 8pm Monday. ...Next Week... Winds will begin to trend weaker on Monday, however daytime relative humidities are still expected in the single digits. Overnight maximum humidities will be slow to recover Sunday night into Monday, with values in the 30s to 50s. Over the mountains and through gaps and canyons, north to east winds will gust 40 to 50 mph into Monday as well. Tuesday sees a return to lighter winds across the area, as well as improving overnight recoveries in relative humidity; however, a warming trend is expected, along with daytime humidities that will remain quite low. Widespread single digit to low teen relative humidity values are expected through most of the week, along with increasing areas of Moderate HeatRisk. Slight improvements in daytime humidities, especially near the Delta, are expected Thursday and Friday at least, but elevated fire weather conditions will likely remain in the Valley throughout next week. Please continue to practice fire safety, and monitor your latest forecast to stay up to date at weather.gov/sacramento. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. North- northwest 15-20 kts over the Valley and Delta with gusts 20-35 kts through tonight, increasing to 20-30 kts with gusts 30-40 kts after 12z Sunday. Strongest wind gusts expected over the Sacramento Valley and Delta. Northeast wind gusts up to 20-30 kts over the Sierra through tonight, becoming northeast to east 20-35 kts with gusts up to 35-50 kts after 12z Sunday. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT Monday for Butte County Below 1000 ft-C. San Joaquin County including Stockton-C. Solano County including Fairfield-C. Stanislaus County including Modesto-C. Yolo/NE Solano including Woodland-Central Colusa County Incl. I-5-Central Glenn Co & Interstate 5-Eastern Colusa County-Eastern Glenn County-N. Sac Valley in Tehama County-NE San Joaquin Valley Below 1000 ft-SW Solano County including Vallejo-Sac Metro/W. El Dorado/Amador County-Sacramento County Delta-San Joaquin County Delta-Shasta Metro-Sutter/Yuba counties below 1000 ft-Tracy Triangle Below 1000 ft-W. Stanislaus County Above 1000 ft & I-5-W. Yolo County including Capay/I-505. Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM PDT Sunday for Butte County Below 1000 ft-C. Solano County including Fairfield- C. Yolo/NE Solano including Woodland-Central Colusa County Incl. I-5-Central Glenn Co & Interstate 5-Eastern Colusa County- Eastern Glenn County-N. Sac Valley in Tehama County-SW Solano County including Vallejo-Sacramento County Delta-San Joaquin County Delta-Shasta Metro-Sutter/Yuba counties below 1000 ft-W. Yolo County including Capay/I-505. && $$

751 FXUS65 KMSO 170654 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1254 AM MDT Sun May 17 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Unsettled, cool, and showery conditions persist through the weekend. - Mountain snow Sunday morning will create uncomfortable conditions for backcountry recreation, especially along the Continental Divide. - Widespread frost and freezing temperatures Sunday through Tuesday mornings. While showers continue to rotate cyclonically through the region they are winding down. Both satellite and radar clearly shows northerly flow is developing as a cold front drops out of Canada. Low level moisture interacting with this Canadian Cold Front will produce the last of robust showers along the boundary that could produce graupel. While most of the snow will fall above 4000 feet, a mix of rain and snow is possible north and east of Missoula at lower elevations. The next phase of this cool spring system is the cooler than normal temperatures. Breaks in the clouds this evening have allowed temperatures north of I-90 to lower into the 30s. Overnight lows in the 20s are more likely along the Continental Divide. Monday morning however, 20s will be widespread in western Montana and limited to higher valleys of north-central ID, IE Elk City, Dixie, and potentially as low as Pierce. Temperatures moderate Tuesday morning but will still lower close to 30F for many and upper 20s along the Continental Divide. The rest of the week will see a warming trend. The drying trend is no longer definitive as multiple weak waves will dive south out of Canada, producing chances for showers throughout the week. && .AVIATION... Precipitation has turned to snow above 4500 ft MSL. Snow will be possible at KBTM this morning. North winds will gust 15 to 20 kts at most terminals today. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT Sunday night for Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot Region... Potomac/Seeley Lake Region...West Glacier Region. Frost Advisory until 9 AM MDT Sunday for Flathead/Mission Valleys...Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys. Frost Advisory from 8 PM Sunday to 9 AM MDT Monday for Flathead/Mission Valleys...Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys. ID...None. && $$

588 FXUS65 KBOI 170535 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 1135 PM MDT Sat May 16 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below normal and gusty winds on Sunday. - Rain and snow tonight across SE Oregon with accumulations above 5000 feet. - Patchy frost possible Monday morning in the Snake Plain mainly east of Mountain Home. && .SHORT TERM /Through Monday Night/... Issued 236 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2026 Showers and isolated thunderstorms this evening over e-central Oregon and w-central ID mtns will scale back this evening with sunset. A minor trough off the BC coast this afternoon will deepen as it drops through the Pac NW overnight. It`s a more impressive wave as it pushes through SE Oregon Sunday morning and will bring an area of light to moderate precipitation to southern Harney and Malheur counties in Oregon and far southern Owyhee County in Idaho. Precipitation type will be mostly snow as snow levels drop to 4500 feet. This will result in accumulations of up to 2 inches above 5000 feet with 2-4 inches above 6000 feet (mainly Steens Mtn). Not sure this will impact roads given warm surface temperatures, but Hwy 95 from Blue Mtn Pass to the OR/NV border could see brief slushy accumulation. Instability showers/thunderstorms will fire off over higher terrain on Sunday on the backside of the upper low. Northerly winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 30 to 45 mph will setup across SE Oregon and SW Idaho. In this instance the more northerly component will focus the strongest winds across SE Oregon and from Murphy to Bruneau in the Snake Plain. A broad trough remains over the western US on Monday, putting our area under northwest flow aloft. Daytime heating will bring cumulus buildups over the mountains, which could put down a sprinkle on higher peaks. With the core of the cold air to the east temperatures Monday will run 6-10 degrees warmer than Sunday. Winds remain breezy across SE Oregon and the lower Snake Plain in Idaho with gusts of 25 to 40 mph in the afternoon. For frost and freeze concerns, the wind tonight should be enough to keep frost/freeze at bay across most of the lower Snake Plain. The coldest spots will be Gooding/Jerome/Hazelton area with lows of 35-40 expected. Sunday night will see temperatures a couple of degrees cooler, and forecast remains consistent with forecast lows of 33-37 from Mountain Home to Twin/Jerome. Have added patchy frost wording to areas from Glenns Ferry to Hazelton where the winds are lightest. && .LONG TERM /Tuesday through Saturday/... Issued 236 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2026 Showers will linger across the higher terrain of southwest Idaho Tuesday/Wednesday as the upper level trough makes it`s way east. Northwest flow aloft will prevail behind this trough the work-week, with increasing heights supporting a warming trend throughout the period. Come Friday, a shortwave embedded in the northwesterly flow will graze our area; this will give way to a slight chance of showers, primarily over the West Central Mountains. This shortwave will also slow the warming trend come Friday. Following that shortwave, ridging will likely build in through the coming weekend with a deepening Gulf of Alaska low. Temperatures are forecast to be 5-10 degrees above normal after Wednesday. Winds will be on the breezier side throughout the period, with afternoon gusts to 20-25 mph across the typical windy areas. && .AVIATION /06Z Sunday through Monday/... Issued 1134 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2026 Generally VFR. Snow showers expanding south into SE Oregon, far SW Idaho (south of Snake Plain), and central ID early Sunday AM through afternoon, creating IFR-LIFR in mtn snow. Mtns becoming obscured. Snow levels: lowering to 3000-4500ft MSL by early AM. Scattered rain/graupel showers elsewhere. Surface winds: generally W-N 5-15 kt overnight. Becoming NW-N 15-30 kt with gusts 25-40 kt late Sun morning/afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-N 15-30 kt. KBOI...VFR. A 20% chance of rain/graupel showers Sunday afternoon, capable of producing erratic outflows. Surface winds: NW 5-15 kt overnight. Winds/gusts increasing again late Sunday AM, peaking at 20-30 kt with gusts up to 30-40 kt Sunday afternoon. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Wind Advisory from noon Sunday to midnight MDT Sunday night for IDZ012-014-015-029. OR...Wind Advisory from noon MDT /11 AM PDT/ Sunday to midnight MDT /11 PM PDT/ Sunday night for ORZ061>064. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....SA SHORT TERM...DG LONG TERM....NF

093 FXUS65 KLKN 161921 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1221 PM PDT Sat May 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Breezy and cooler weather conditions today * Cooling temperature trends continue this weekend with high temperatures several degrees below normal * Storm system moves through NE Nevada Sunday into Monday, bringing gusty winds, and chances for valley rain showers and mountain snow showers. * Overnight lows are expected to drop to below freezing Sunday morning and continuing into early next week && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Saturday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper trough of low pressure is pushing into the southwest today with the central part of the low pressure expected over northern Nevada by Sunday. This trough of low pressure will push much cooler air into Nevada with highs today expected to be just a few degrees below normal in the 60s, with high temperatures tomorrow expected to be 10-20 degrees below normal. Overnight temperatures will be below freezing and expected to reach below freezing until mid-week. The trough will tighten the weather gradients that will aid in increasing wind speeds over the weekend. Northerly winds this afternoon up to 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20-35 mph. By tomorrow, winds are expected to be stronger with speeds up to 20-35 mph, gusts as high as 40-55 mph. Recent model runs showing an increasing trend for precipitation chances for rain/snow, however confidence remains low as models are still split on how much precipitable moisture will be in the atmosphere as some models show only 0.3 inches. The track of the storm now has chances for precipitation spread across the entire region with higher values expected over White Pine County, with probabilities of up to 75-95% of seeing more than 0.05-0.1 inches of rain (more than 0.2 inches possible for White Pine County). Thunderstorm chances have also trended upwards with a 20% chance along the US-50 corridor in the afternoon. For northern Nevada, precipitation may start out as snow reaching the valleys as snow levels drop below 5000 feet tonight, yet see slight warming Sunday with snow levels increasing back up around 5500 feet, then dropping again Sunday night around 4000 feet. Central Nevada will have snow levels higher, starting around 8000 feet, dropping to around 6000 feet overnight then back to around 7000 feet Sunday afternoon. Sunday night, snow levels drop below 5000 feet as freezing temperatures move across the region. Snow accumulations are not expected to be less than an inch for the valleys (up to an inch in northern Elko County along SR-225 and US-93), with passes and summits up to 1-2 inches. Mountains will see up to 4-8 inches of snow with Ruby Mountains and Snake Range seeing up to a foot of snow. Monday, quiet weather conditions return as the trough moves eastward out of Nevada. Temperatures expected to remain below normal through Tuesday in the 60s as northwesterly flow stays over the state but is expected to see a warming trend. By Wednesday, temperatures warm back to near normal in the 70s with Thursday and Friday reaching slightly above normal in the 70s to 80s. Next weekend, models are showing another Pacific low pressure pattern that will enter into the western CONUS, however discrepancies in the models on how strong the system will be which may change the timing and position of the low as next weekend approaches. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence of cooling temperatures trends dropping below normal with overnight freezing this weekend. Low confidence of precipitation Sunday as PWAT values remain low. High confidence of strong gusty winds Sunday afternoon. Moderate confidence of below normal temperatures through next week, followed by warming temperatures above normal late-week. Adjusted winds in NBM grids to better anticipate tightning pressure gradients. && .AVIATION... Breezy northerly winds across all terminals this afternoon with speeds up to 10-15 kts, gusts 20-30kts with the strongest of winds more towards the northern terminals. Cloud levels expected to increase in coverage with the lowest CIG levels maintaining around FL080-FL100. Overnight into the early mornings, CIG levels drop down to FL030-FL050 as trough of low pressure brings in precipitation chances. VCSH conditions starting over the northern terminals in the morning, and reaching the central terminals by the afternoon. VFR conditions dominant, however MVFR or lower is possible with the chance of -SHSN over northern terminals as temperatures drop below freezing overnight. Sunday afternoon will warm with -SHRA conditions over all terminals until -SHSN conditions return overnight due to freezing temperatures. && .FIRE WEATHER... Low fire weather concerns over the next few days as an upper level trough bring cooler temperatures. Winds will be strong to gusty Sunday across central and northern Nevada with a wind advisory in effect. Winds will be out of the west initially, but a strong fast moving cold front will shift winds to the north at 20 to 35 MPH with gust up to 55 MPH possible. Humidity will be on the increase with temperatures on the decline as high Sunday hover in the upper 40s to upper 50s. Along with the cooler temperatures there will be a 50% to 70% chance for light scattered valley rain and mountain snow showers, mainly for eastern Nevada, with some light accumulations possible through Monday morning. From Monday afternoon through next weekend NW flow pattern will keep quiet weather conditions, with light to breezy afternoon winds, and slowly warming temperatures. Highs will look to reach back into the mid 70s to mid 80s by next Sunday. .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Sunday NVZ030-031-035-037-040-041. && $$ DISCUSSION...97 AVIATION...97