858 FXUS66 KSEW 161716 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 916 AM PST Mon Feb 16 2026 .SYNOPSIS... A return to an active weather pattern begins today with a trough developing offshore. A few fronts associated with this trough will keep precipitation chances in the forecast through the week, including snow in the mountains. Temperatures this week will also be a couple degrees cooler, with highs in the 40s and lows around freezing for much of the week. && .UPDATE...As of 845 am, snow had begun falling along US 101 west of Lake Crescent. The main update this morning is an expansion of the area of potential snowfall today through Tuesday morning. The latest high-res guidance from both the HREF and REFS indicate at least a 50% chance of 1 inch of snow between now and noon Tuesday from near Lake Crescent southward along the western slopes of the Olympics down to Grays Harbor, the Willapa Hills, and even sneaking into the Hood Canal. Given temperatures in the low to mid 30s, it will be difficult for widespread snow accumulations to develop. However, with the convective nature of this precipitation, heavier showers could result in quick snowfall accumulations and rapidly deteriorating road conditions. In general, the snowfall threat will begin in the northern Olympic Peninsula during the day today, then shift southward tonight into Tuesday morning. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for portions of the Olympic Peninsula and southwest Washington. No other changes were made to the remainder of the forecast this morning. -Wolcott- && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... It is mostly dry this morning across western WA this morning, but that is quickly changing. A trough is expected to develop offshore in the Pacific today, and dig its way southward along the coast, with much of the jet energy focused in California. This trough is expected to be the primary trigger for some of the weather expected in western WA through much of the week. Already on radar this morning, the first showers are approaching the coastline from a cold front offshore that is expected to stall once it gets to the coast. These showers have been light in nature as of midnight, but will increase in intensity/coverage going through the day. The expected mode of precipitation today is bands/areas of showers. There is enough cool air aloft (from 850 mb up to 500 mb) for some instability in the air today (particularly from the coast into the ocean today). This has resulted in a 20% chance of thunder for today`s shower activity along the coastline, and offshore. In addition to the chance of thunder, there is a chance of some snow mixing in (especially as snow levels drop below 1,000 ft late tonight, and below 500 ft Tuesday morning). As far as impacts go for today/Tuesday, the main area of concern is the US-101 corridor from Forks to the Lake Crescent area, where HREF/REFS keep probabilities for 1" of snow at 70-80% (but drops to 50% for 2" of snow). This area of US-101 will continue to be monitored for a possible winter weather advisory as the morning evolves (there remains some uncertainty as to if warmer air from the onshore flow may disrupt some of the cool air down at the surface causing flakes to melt). For the remainder of the region, shower coverage is not expected to be as widespread as the coast today, but a few showers will work their way inland into the interior today into Tuesday. While a few snowflakes may fall in some of the more urban areas, the threat of accumulating snow (an inch or greater) in the interior remains near 0. The snow will be primarily focused in the Olympics/Cascades, with some of the snow in the Olympics potentially reaching down to the Lake Crescent and Hood Canal areas tonight/Tuesday morning. The snow amounts in the mountains Monday-Tuesday are on the lighter side, with just around 1-2 inches in the passes, and 3-6 inches at the peaks of the mountains. High temperatures Monday/Tuesday will range in the low to mid 40s for the lowlands, and 20s/30s in the mountains. Winds will be out of the south/southwest, with a few gusts to 20 mph possible in the interior Monday afternoon, otherwise decreasing in magnitude into Tuesday to around 5 mph. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The same trough will remain in place over the region through Friday, before moving further inland. This will keep temperatures cool through the week, with precipitation chances continuing. With the precipitation mode expected to continue to remain showery, some uncertainty remains in exact amounts of the precipitation going into the second half of the week. The snow impacts will shift more towards the mountains (though a few flakes will continue to remain possible in the lowlands next few overnights). The Cascades and Olympics will see snow through the week, with snow rates expected to remain light enough to keep traffic impacts to a minimum. From early Wednesday through Friday the heaviest of the snow looks to be in the central/south Cascades (with potential for 6+ inches of snow in a few of the passes/peaks Wednesday through Friday). There are split ensemble solutions as to what replaces the previously mentioned trough moving inland. Most members show another trough developing next weekend, while a couple members show a drier/warmer pattern to the east (but just clipping western WA). If a trough does develop, there will be potential for more precipitation, as temperatures increase slightly next weekend. The precipitation will be monitored for possible impacts to travel (as there are signals that some of this precipitation may be heavier in nature). HPR && .AVIATION... A trough will dig along the coast today, with a surface cold front associated with the trough expected to slow as it approaches the coast. This will increase southwest flow aloft. Ceilings this morning are mostly VFR (couple pockets of MVFR to LIFR are present around KPWT).Scattered showers are expected across the terminals in the TAF period. Most of the showers will be concentrated from the Olympics westward, but a few will track in the interior. Additionally, the air along the coast/Pacific ocean is unstable enough for a 20% chance of thunder today. Some of the heavier showers may drop visibilities down to IFR. Additionally, the cool air overnight may lead to a few snowflakes mixing in overnight/early Tuesday morning. Probability for widespread MVFR ceilings increases tonight/Tuesday morning, but some terminals may stay VFR. Surface winds today are out of the SW 5-10 kt (couple gusts to 20 kt possible in the interior this afternoon). Will drop to 4-6 kt tonight/Tuesday. KSEA...VFR high clouds in place over the terminal, with a 60% chance of showers/vicinity showers from 18Z through 00Z, then a 20% chance of vicinity showers through the remainder of the TAF period. A few snowflakes cannot be ruled out mixing down Tuesday morning (if a shower passes over the terminal). Probabilities for MVFR becomes likely after 00Z this evening. Winds: SW 5-10 kt with a couple gusts to 20 kt from 18Z-03Z, decreasing to 4-6 kt tonight/Tuesday. HPR/41 && .MARINE... A trough is expected to deepen offshore in the coastal waters today, and remain over the region through the end of the week before moving inland. A couple of surface fronts will pass through with this trough pattern (the first one expected to slow coming up to the shore today/Tuesday). Precipitation will be showery in nature, with there also being a 20% chance of thunder in the forecast (for Monday only). Winds with this front are only expected to exceed 20 kt in the far outer coastal waters this morning through the afternoon. The winds will be breezy elsewhere out of the south (up to 15-20 kt gusts in the interior), but below small craft headline criteria. The hazard concern transitions to high seas, with an increase to 10-13 ft expected late today into Wednesday, decreasing to 7-8 ft Thursday, and 4-6 ft Friday as the low moves inland. Some uncertainty remains if a system will develop next weekend, but there will be a potential for gusty small craft winds and seas building above 10 ft next weekend (depending on how the system tracks). HPR && .HYDROLOGY... No river flooding is expected over the next 7 days. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Weather Advisory until noon PST Tuesday for Foothills of the Western and Southern Olympic Peninsula-Lake Crescent Area Including US 101-Lower Chehalis River Valley-Southern Hood Canal-Willapa and Black Hills. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST Tuesday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Tuesday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm. && $$

779 FXUS66 KPQR 162208 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 208 PM PST Mon Feb 16 2026 .SYNOPSIS...A deep, upper level trough dropping south out of Canada will bring cooler temperatures along with scattered to widespread showers and the potential for lowland snow. Colder air is expected to maintain daytime temperatures around 5-10 degrees cooler than normal, while lowering snow levels towards 1000 ft. Showery weather is expected to continue through the week and will result in a rain/snow mix for lower elevations and snow for higher elevations. Given the showery nature of the precipitation, there is a 60-85% chance for snow flurries or "conversational snow" to be observed down to the valley floor through the latter part of this week. At the same time, 72-96 hour snow totals for the Cascades are around 1 to 2 feet. While not the most likely solution, there is potential (10-30% chance) for 1 to 2 inches of snowfall occurring below 1000 ft somewhere in NW Oregon/SW Washington Wed night into Thursday morning. Towards the end of next week, precipitation remains in the forecast, but snow levels start to rise towards 3000 ft or higher. && .DISCUSSION...Now through Sunday...Looking at radar and satellite observations a cold front can be seen pushing through the area. This will bring about a more unstable atmosphere as cooler air is introduced into the region. Current model guidance is showing 850 mb temperatures around the -5 to -7 C range and using past observations and trends, this is the typical 850 temperature threshold that snow down to the valley floor enters into the conversation. As this colder air moves into the region, snow levels will continue to lower towards 1000 ft by this evening and as the sun sets, the snow levels are expected to drop further towards 500 ft. Also, with the convective nature of the precipitation, the wet bulb effect could also result in snow flurries/conversational snow being observed down to the valley floor. Again, am not expecting impacts for lower elevations as accumulations will be light, if any. Still, don`t be surprised if on Tuesday morning, there is some minor accumulation on the grass and elevated surfaces. Given all of that information, the current suite of Winter Weather Advisories for the Coast Range, Cascades and Cascade foothills remain on track, with at least a 70-80% chance of exceeding 6 inches at pass level through Tuesday morning, with similar probabilities of at least 2 inches of snowfall for the Coast Range and Cascade foothills. As Tuesday approaches, a deep upper low looks to be positioned over the Pacific NW, which will keep 850 mb temperatures in the -5 to -7 C range and under onshore flow. The upper level low as well as the associated surface low, will slowly push southeastward towards the Central Oregon Coast. Surface low pressure will likely remain offshore near the Washington or north Oregon coast. Cooler 850 mb temperatures will support an unstable and showery pattern. Current model sounding are showing CAPE values around 200-300 J/kg, which is resulting in around a 10-25% chance for thunderstorms on Tuesday. So, while general snow accumulations will be unlikely for the lowlands. Locally heavier showers could briefly enhance snowfall rates, via the wet bulb effect and would likely melt on contact or shortly after the shower has moved out of the area. Any thunderstorms that do form would have the potential for small hail or graupel, along with gusty outflow winds. As we look towards Tuesday and Wednesday, ensembles and hi-res models suggest a bit of a lull in shower activity Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Overnight temperatures are expected to fall below freezing across most of the forecast area. Any showers that do occur early Wednesday would likely produce snow showers, but should be light and widely scattered. Another concern would be any wet roads from precipitation on Tuesday would have the chance to freeze and become icy by Wednesday morning. Wednesday night into Thursday morning becomes a bit more interesting as a few models and ensemble members are hinting at a scenario that could produce accumulating snow for the lowlands, particularly during the morning commute. Models continue to maintain 850 mb temperatures in the -6 to -7 C range, which increases the chance for snow to be observed as well as accumulate for the valley floor. However, the biggest cause of uncertainty at this time is the exact track of the low and associated front. Diving into the ECWMF, GEFS and Canadian models and their ensembles, it looks like there are three general tracks that could occur. Track one would take the low into the Olympic Peninsula, track two would bring the low inland around Astoria, OR and track three would result in the low coming onshore around Florence, OR. For track one details, the path would result in a higher chance for rain for elevations below 1000-1500 ft as relatively warm southerly flow will keep 850 mb temperatures towards 0 to -3 degrees C. While snow being observed cannot be ruled out for track 1, the overall probability would be around 10% for accumulating snow. Track two, would be the "snowiest" a.k.a. the highest impact solution out of the three tracks. 850 mb temperatures around -6 to -8 degrees C would be expected along with precipitation amounts around 0.05 to 0.15 inches of QPF. If track two occurs, the probability of snow accumulations of 1-2 inches or more across the lowlands would be around 30-40%, mainly over the Portland/Vancouver metro and Cowlitz Valley, including Kelso and Longview. Lastly, the third track would also result in snow accumulations for the lowlands, but with the bulk of the precipitation pointed towards the central or southern Willamette Valley. This track would favor snow from Salem to Eugene-Springfield, with little to no snow north of Salem. No matter the track, snow accumulations for the Cascades and Coast Ranges look to be on track where hazardous travel conditions are expected to continue through the work week. While overall snow totals will vary, depending on the track we are still anticipating advisory level snow accumulations somewhere in the Willamette Valley or Cowlitz Valley. Overall, the confidence for lowland snow for Wednesday night into Thursday morning scenario is low. As we move into the latter part of the week and into the weekend, precipitation remains in the forecast, but 850 mb temperatures are expected to warm towards 0 to -2 degrees C. That would result in snow levels rising towards 1500-2000 ft by Saturday and Sunday. /42 && .AVIATION...Moist southwest flow aloft continues ahead of a deepening upper level trough offshore. Expect mainly MVFR flight conditions through 23z Monday with widespread showers as a cold front continues pushing inland. Brief periods of high-end IFR cigs are possible today, mainly with passing showers. Note there is a 15-30% chance of thunderstorms along the coast this afternoon and evening, including KAST and KONP. Thunderstorms and heavier showers will have the potential to produce graupel or small hail and gusty and erratic outflow wind gusts up to 25-30 kt. A few wet snowflakes could mix in as well with heavier showers or thunderstorms. After 23z Monday, conditions will trend towards VFR as showers become lighter and more isolated in coverage. However, a renewed round of showers arrives between 06-12z Tuesday, bringing a return to predominately MVFR cigs. The airmass will be colder at that point as well, favoring snow showers or a rain/snow mix down to the valley floor by 08-12z Tuesday. Expect off-and-on snow showers or a rain/snow mix to then continue through 18z Tuesday. Since temperatures will be marginal and precipitation will be showery, expect very little to no snow accumulation at the terminals, with a dusting of snow on grass at best. Any snow that does accumulate should melt fairly quickly Tuesday afternoon as temperatures warm into the 40s. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Expect predominately MVFR flight conditions through 23z Monday with off and on rain showers. Chances for VFR cigs increase after 00z Tuesday with a brief break from rain showers. However, showers will increase in coverage again between 06-12z Tuesday. This secondary round of showers will likely fall in the form of wet snow or a rain/snow mix, with very little to no snow accumulation expected at the terminal as temperatures will be marginal and precipitation will be showery. At best, a dusting of snow on grass may occur. Any snow that does accumulate should melt fairly quickly Tuesday afternoon as temperatures warm into the 40s. -23 && .MARINE...A cold front moved inland early Monday afternoon, with westerly winds now in place over the coastal waters along with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. However, stronger showers or thunderstorms that develop will have the potential to produce gusty and erratic outflow wind gusts up to 30 kt. Surface low pressure drops south along the Washington coast late Monday into Tuesday, bringing more south to southwesterly winds across the waters. The low pressure likely weakens as it continues to drift south through the Oregon coastal waters resulting in easing wind speeds. A mid-period west-northwesterly swell will push into the coastal waters Monday night, building seas to around 12 to 14 ft on Tuesday, likely highest over the central and southern waters. The southern outer waters may see significant wave heights as high as 15-17 ft (10% chance). Have extended the Small Craft Advisory for all coastal waters through Wednesday morning. Seas gradually subside Wednesday into Thursday with wind gusts most likely ranging between 15-25 kt and seas falling to around 10 ft or less. Winds and seas will likely increase next weekend as there is potential for a stronger system near the waters. There is currently a 60-80% chance for gale force wind gusts over 34 kt February 21-22 with a 50% chance for seas of 12 to 14 ft and a 5-10% chance for seas as high as 16-19 ft. -23/DH && .BEACH HAZARDS...There is a high threat of sneaker waves at the coast on Tuesday, February 17th. This is due to an incoming long period westerly swell. Sneaker waves can run up significantly farther on a beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. These waves can suddenly knock people off of their feet and quickly pull them into the frigid ocean which may lead to serious injury or drowning. Caution should be used when in or near the water, especially those who will be razor clamming. Keep children and pets away from the surf zone. Keep off of jetties, rocks and logs near the surf zone. If you see someone swept into the sea, do not swim in after them. Instead , call 911 and keep an eye on them until help arrives. && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for ORZ106-107- 123>128. WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for WAZ203-208-211. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST Wednesday for PZZ210. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM PST Wednesday for PZZ251>253. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for PZZ271>273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

691 FXUS66 KMFR 162233 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 233 PM PST Mon Feb 16 2026 .UPDATE... Note: Please see previous discussion below for further details. Key Points: * Snow: Widepsread Minor to Moderate Impacts Today-Thurs night - Moderate to heavy snowfall for mountains/passes - Snow levels dropping each day - Down to 500ft - 1000ft Tues & Wed mornings - Light amounts (Trace-1.0") for valley floors - Heaviest amounts for western Siskiyou, Mt Shasta area, Cascades, and Kalmiopsis Wilderness * Rainfall: Minor Impacts - Continues through late this week - Not expecting widespread flooding but roads could be hazardous * Wind - Combination of wind & snow could further disrupt travel by reducing visibilities - Breezy to gusty winds across northern California and eastside - Breezy winds also possible for some westside areas -Guerrero && .AVIATION...16/18Z TAFS...A cold front is slowly pushing through southern Oregon as of late this morning. Scattered showers and some lower MVFR and IFR ceilings are being observed ahead of this front. Behind the front and along the coast, MVFR ceilings mixed with periods of VFR ceilings are most likely for the remainder of the day There is some cold air behind this front and some of the terminals will have a good chance of snow showers later tonight into Tuesday morning. Medford(KMFR) usually under performs under a shower pattern with westerly flow, although a short wave will enhance things tonight. Snow levels will bottom out around 1300 feet, so it will definitely be cold enough for accumulating snow. Look for IFR and LIFR conditions later tonight as this next short wave moves through and produces snow and lower ceilings at many of the terminals. -Smith && .MARINE...Updated 200 PM PST Monday, February 16, 2026...Steep seas continue this afternoon and evening. We`ll see seas move even higher by Tuesday as wave heights approach 16 feet in the outer waters due to an increasing westerly to northwester swell. These conditions will remain hazardous to smaller crafts through Wednesday. The weather pattern will keep this northwesterly swell and breezy northwesterly winds into Thursday. Eventually, a low will likely deepen in the eastern Pacific around 140W. Models are bringing some strong southerly winds to our waters with Gale force winds a threat for the region. -Smith && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1117 AM PST Mon Feb 16 2026/ DISCUSSION.../Issued 433 AM PST Mon Feb 16 2026/ With an upper trough looking to stay in place over the western United States, active wintry weather is expected through most of the upcoming week. Conditions today do look to stay relatively unimpactful but worsen overnight. A low pressure system that was bringing precipitation to northern California weakens and another low approaches the area from the north. Both of these systems will bring precipitation through the day across northern California and southern Oregon, but nothing hazardous for most areas. A Winter Storm Warning remains in place for areas in Siskiyou County over 5000 feet, where moderate to heavy snowfall is expected. Snow levels look to stay at 3500-4500 feet through the morning. As the system from the north approaches, snow levels will start to drop for areas west of the Cascades. West of the Cascades, light snowfall is expected to stay over terrain through today. The Cascades themselves and the Warner Mountains in Modoc County will see significant snowfall of 5 to 10 inches today, and lower elevation areas east of the Cascades look to see fractions of an inch of snowfall. The low pressure system to the north moves over the area on Tuesday, bringing a cold air mass as well as abundant precipitation across the area. Westerly flow aloft will focus activity over western Siskiyou COunty and the Cascades. By early Tuesday morning, snow levels west of the Cascades look to lower to 500-1000 feet, bringing the possibility of snowfall to west side valley floors. For the west side, the most activity looks to take place through the morning. The Mount Shasta region (Mount Shasta City, Dunsmuir, Weed) and areas east of the Cascades will see more activity in the late afternoon and evening. With the exception of the Umpqua Valley, area valleys and basins may see 1 to 2 inches of snowfall. Lingering surface warming and moisture will help to prevent immediate accumulation in these areas, but roadways may be locally slick where slush is present. 5 to 12 inches of snowfall is expected over the Cascades, with 12 to 24 inches forecast over terrain in western Siskiyou County. With low snow levels and precipitation continuing through the day, Winter Storm Warnings are in place for areas at 1500 feet or higher west of the Cascades. This Warning is meant to highlight the chance of dangerous conditions while traveling over area passes. A Winter Storm Warning also remains in place for areas in western Siskiyou County and in the Mount Shasta region for continuing snowfall. All other areas have a Winter Weather Advisory in place starting Tuesday morning. The cold air mass lingers on Wednesday but precipitation becomes more showery and intermittent across the area. Snowfall remains in the forecast for elevated terrain, while valley floors may see an occasional snow shower. One recent addition to the suite of winter hazards is a Freeze Watch for coastal areas early Wednesday morning. Additional information on how the cold air mass looks to behave will help to determine if an upgrade to a Freeze Warning will be needed. Another round of possibly impactful activity is possible on Thursday as another low pressure system looks to slide into the upper trough and swing over the area. Some questions on timing and snow levels in this timeframe remain, and the path of the low could change the expected impacts as well. Please stay tuned for any updates on the forecast as winter weather looks to continue towards the end of the week and possibly into the upcoming weekend. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Thursday for ORZ023-024- 026. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 10 AM PST Thursday for ORZ023>031. Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning for ORZ021-022. CA...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Thursday for CAZ080-082- 083. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 10 AM PST Thursday for CAZ081-084-085. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Wednesday for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$

812 FXUS66 KEKA 162217 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 217 PM PST Mon Feb 16 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Major winter weather impacts with low elevation snowfall expected tonight through Thursday. A warmer storm with significant impacts possible next weekend. && KEY MESSAGES: * Tonight through Tuesday night heavy wet snow will result in dangerous travel conditions, downed trees and possible power outages. Heavy wet snow will impact travel on highways 199, 299, 36, 101 and 3. * Small hail accumulation expected for low elevations along NW California Coast with heavy showers, especially on Tuesday. * Additional periods of rain with low elevation snow are expected Wednesday through Thursday. * Heavy rain with higher snow levels and strong gusty winds possible next weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Cold frontal boundary moved across the North Coast this afternoon. A colder air mass will follow behind a secondary trough passage later this evening and overnight. Snow levels are forecast to plummet to 2000 to 2500 feet later tonight and may dip down to 1500 feet in locally heavy precipitation. Mesoscale and global spectral models continue to show an uptick in convective precipitation tonight through Tuesday as a 500mb cold core digs offshore the northern California coast. Shallow instability and low CAPE (<500j/kg) may result in isolated low topped storms and small hail. Deeper dendritic growth zone from 2000-3000 feet tonight and Tuesday will yield heavy snow for elevations above 2000-2500 feet. Confidence for over 4 inches in 6 hours is highest for Humboldt, Del Norte and southern Trinity Counties where HREF continues to indicate over an 80% chance. Chance for over 4 inches also increases for northern Mendocino and northern Lake, generally above 2500-3000 feet. Greater impacts are likely for lower elevations around 1500-2500 feet, particularly in northern Mendocino on high 101 later tonight or early Tuesday where 1 to 3 inches are expected. The greatest uncertainty is with snow levels. Heavy precip rates will drive down freezing levels and result in bursts of heavy snow and/or small hail that will stick to the roads. For that reason the winter weather advisory has been upgraded to a warning for northern Mendocino and Lake. Confidence in winter storm warning amounts (5 inches or more above 1500 feet) is not high (a 30-50% chance) for locations like Cobb by 10 AM Tuesday. Greater impacts are forecast for Berry Summit on highway 299 and Collier Tunnel on highway 199 where up to 1 foot of snow may accumulate during the next 24 to 36 hours. Lesser amounts are forecast for the Weaverville area (Hwy 299 at Oregon Mountain and Buckhorn Summit) where 2 to 5 inches are expected in 24-36 hours. A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect from this evening through Wednesday afternoon for elevations above 2000 feet in Del Norte, Humboldt and Trinity Counties. Showers and low snow levels (2000 feet) are expected to continue on Wednesday and Thursday as another cold trough drops down from the NW. Models are not in super great agreement with the timing, snow amounts/intensity and snow levels. On Wednesday, ensemble guidance indicates about a 30-40% chance for 2 inches in 6 hours above 2000 feet with a spread of 500 feet either side of that. Chance for > 2 inches above 2000 feet (+/- 500 feet) in 6 hours increases to 60-80% Wed night into Thu morning. This will likely result in more winter weather products with major impacts on our highways, particularly at pass level. This is the first major snow of the season for NW California and it is best to remain off the roads and stay home if at all possible until snow levels increase. A break in the precipitations will be possible on Friday, before a warmer and potentially windier storm takes aim on NW California this upcoming weekend. This storm system could pack a wallop with strong damaging winds and heavy rain. CW3E AR landfall tool, mainly the ECMWF ensemble, is depicting over a 70% chance for a long duration (36-48 hours) of IVT > 250 kg/m/s. GFS ensemble is not as high (50-60% chance) with somewhat shorter duration. The risk for flooding will increase. To what magnitude and exact details remain elusive at this point, but it is large scale pattern that is conducive for hydro concerns (flooding) for our area. Stay tuned for more details. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFs)...VFR to MVFR conditions are being observed at the terminals as rain showers continue. Interior valleys, including UKI saw low stratus and fog this morning with moisture from the recent rains. Mainly MVFR to VFR conditions are expected, except during periods of heavy showers, where IFR ceilings and visibilities are possible. Gusty northwest winds are possible this afternoon and evening, exceeding 20 kts at times. Small hail showers are possible overnight into Tuesday at the coastal terminals. Isolated thunderstorms along with gusty and erratic winds of 30 kts or higher are possible with these showers. There is a possible low level wind shear threat as well with these winds, especially in sheltered interior valleys, including UKI, where winds at 2 kft AGL are likely to be much higher than the surface winds. JB && .MARINE...Northerly winds have increased behind a cold frontal passage, with gusts of 30 kts or higher being observed on the buoys. Gale force gusts are possible this afternoon and evening, especially in the southern waters. Steep seas of 7 to 9 ft will be associated with these winds. Combined seas of 9 to 12 ft are possible when factoring in a decaying northwest swell at around 7 ft. This evening and overnight, winds will turn westerly but remain elevated with widespread gusts of 20 to 30 kts. Greater instability will bring heavy rain showers tonight, the strongest of which could bring isolated thunderstorms, gale force gusts, small hail, and isolated waterspouts. West winds ease slightly Tuesday, especially by the afternoon in areas close to shore from about Trinidad northward, where gusts may subside to 10 to 15 kts. Elsewhere, gusts of 15 to 20 kts are likely through the day Tuesday. The bigger impact will be the mid period northwest swell building Tuesday morning, which is expected to peak at around 14 to 16 ft at 13 seconds. This could bring combined seas up to 18 ft, especially in the outer waters, by Tuesday afternoon. Winds turn southerly again Wednesday as another front approaches the area. Models diverge on the strength of the southerly winds ahead of the front, with gusts up to 25 to 30 kts possible. Winds quickly turn northerly behind the front Wednesday night into Thursday with gale force gusts possible in the outer waters. Steep wind waves are possible with these winds and could propagate into the inner waters. Northerly winds ease Friday into early Saturday as an additional storm system approaches the area. Strong southerly winds, possibly with gale or storm force gusts, are possible by Saturday. JB && .COASTAL FLOODING...High astronomical tides resulted in minor coastal flooding at high tide late this morning, with the tide reaching 8.82 ft above MLLW. The surge was around 1.4 feet at high tide this morning. The same anomaly at high tide tomorrow, which is at 11:30 AM at the North Spit tide gauge, would result in a tide of 8.6 to 8.7 ft MLLW. Should the tide exceed 8.8 ft MLLW, minor coastal flooding is possible around Humboldt Bay, including the Arcata Bottoms and in King Salmon. JB && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Wednesday for CAZ101-103. Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Wednesday for CAZ102-105-106. Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Wednesday for CAZ104. Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST Wednesday for CAZ107- 108. Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM Tuesday to 4 PM PST Wednesday for CAZ110-111-114-115. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST Wednesday for PZZ450- 470. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ455. Gale Warning until 10 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ455. Gale Warning until 10 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

303 FXUS66 KMTR 162207 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 207 PM PST Mon Feb 16 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 206 AM PST Mon Feb 16 2026 - Rain continues today and continues this week as additional storm systems arrive - Strong winds through mid-week; Wind Advisory for the Central Coast today - A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect through Tuesday for minor high tide flooding - Winter Weather Advisory today through Wednesday Central Coast Mts and Santa Clara Hills Tuesday through Wednesday with accumulating snow - Much colder with mountain snow mid to late week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 140 PM PST Mon Feb 16 2026 (This evening through Tuesday) The much advertised active weather arrived today. Pretty fascinating synoptic set up at the moment over the Central Coast region. The digging upper trough from Sunday materialized along the Central Coast today. Rounding the base of the trough, and the fuel for the surface low, is a jet max. GOES West derived wind shows the higher winds speed aloft. It does appear the favored left exit region for larger scale ascent is placed a tad farther south the previously forecast. That was likely a contributing factor for the round of intense convection to the south in the LOX WFO area. Regardless, still enough ascent to assist with cyclongensis. The afternoon WPC surface analysis shows a double- barrel low off the Central Coast with a frontal boundary moving inland. Earlier in the day we had a round of intense rain with a subsequent weakening and now another burst of precip as the cold front moves east. The complex surface setup led to gusty winds, heavy rain (several inches of rain), localized urban/small stream flooding, mud/dirt/rock flows onto roads, and a change over to snow over the Santa Lucia Mts. Tonight through Tuesday: The double-barrel low will weaken and move inland. As this happens winds will remain gusty through this evening then ease overnight. Will keep ongoing Wind Adv over the Central Coast. Rainfall will be light to moderate through this evening and heaviest south of the the Golden Gate. We`ll likely see a lull in coverage and intensity overnight, but won`t say completely dry. Lastly, the cold temps aloft associated with the low helped drop the snow levels. Snow is now falling over the higher peaks of the Santa Lucia and S Gabilan range. Expect this to persist into early Tuesday. As one system exits, and upstream cold front will quickly replace the Monday system during the day Tuesday. This second system and associated cold front will usher in a much colder airmass, another round of precip, additional gusty winds, thunderstorms, and high elevation snow. The latest timing brings rain back to the N Bay late tonight before spreading S and E Tuesday. As such, expect a messy commute for Tuesday. Rainfall amounts for Tuesday into Wednesday: 0.5-1.5" most areas, 1-2" coastal mts, and locally up to 3" Santa Lucias. This will likely result in additional minor flooding concerns on Tuesday given the filling creeks/streams from Monday. As for winds, they`ll increase shortly before sunrise and then increase through the day. They`ll be more widespread and gusty across a the entire Bay Area and Central Coast, unlike the Monday system. That being said, just borderline for Wind Adv at this time with gusts 20-40 mph with local gusts to 50 mph. The colder air aloft with the front will help to destabilize the atmosphere leading to another chance for thunderstorms. SPC has the entire region in a general mention for thunder on Tuesday. The more likely scenario will be convective showers with small hail. Last but not least, kept Winter Wx Adv over the peaks of the Central Coast. In fact, amounts in this region went up a tad. Decided to add in the Santa Clara Hills for a Winter Wx Adv on Tuesday into Wednesday. It`s a low end event with 4-8 inches of snow likely, but impacts to Hwy 130 tipped the scale. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 205 PM PST Mon Feb 16 2026 (Tuesday night through next Sunday) The active weather from Tuesday will linger Tuesday night into Wednesday as the upper trough follows the front. Impacts for Wednesday will be additional showers, lowering snow levels again (1500ft? N Bay), and cold temperatures. Speaking of temperatures, lows Wednesday AM will be cold with temps in the 30s. Will likely need a mix of Cold Wx Adv and Extreme Cold products. This will be the case for Thursday and Friday mornings too. The storm door remains open as a third system arrives late Wednesday into Thursday. This system will bring a renewed push of rain, high elevation snow, and gusty winds lingering into Friday. Rainfall amounts: 0.5-1.0" most areas, 1-2" coastal mts. As mentioned previously, we`ll have cold air in place. The interesting part will be much lingering precip will there be on Friday to accompany the cold air. Still seeing some rather low snow levels for portions of the Bay Area. Given lack of conf on moisture don`t think amounts will be that high, but would not be surprised to see some novelty flakes for very wet flakes below 1000 ft, especially the N Bay. A brief break in the action with just a few showers late Friday into Saturday, but yet another system takes aim as the region Saturday into Sunday. Details will be fine tuned as this event nears. Thoughts on hydro: while no single storm looks like a major hydro event all of these storms piling on top of each other may push some of the bigger rivers into action stage by the weekend. The smaller/flashier streams have a higher likelihood of have issues. Given the filling culverts and creeks, additional Flood Adv will likely be needed this week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 929 AM PST Mon Feb 16 2026 Mixed bag of flt cond across the region this morning as a potent, cold core surface low pressure system moves into the Central Coast of CA. Heaviest rainfall exiting the region late this morning will be replaced by some clearing overnight with isolated low stratus. Another round of rainfall and thick cloud cover on tap for Tuesday morning prior to sunrise lasting thru the rest of the period. Perhaps bigger story for aviators will be gusty post- frontal winds this afternoon, which will likely persist thru the rest of the TAF period with the exception of some sheltered inland valleys. Vicinity of SFO...Current round of light-moderate rain lasting thru 19Z with scattered shra afterward into the afternoon. Mostly dry overnight with gusty NW post-frontal winds likely to persist thru the overnight hours. Another round of rainfall and gusty pre-frontal S-SW winds ahead of the next system just prior to sunrise Tuesday morning, likely to persist into the afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Potential for gusty SW winds along coastal areas as a surface low pressure system moves into the Central Coast. Otherwise heaviest of the rainfall is behind us at least thru midday. Another round of moderate-to-heavy rainfall likely this afternoon across the Central Coast and Monterey Bay regions. Mostly drier overnight with isolated areas of low stratus, but anticipating mostly MVFR/VFR at terminals overnight. && .MARINE... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 929 AM PST Mon Feb 16 2026 Scattered to widespread rain will continue across the waters today before becoming isolated to scattered late in the day. Strong southerly winds continue along the inner coastal waters south of Monterey Bay, while winds elsewhere increase throughout the day. Strong to near gale force winds are expected through midweek, with gale force gusts expected at times. Rough to very rough seas will prevail through the week. Thunderstorm chances increase behind the initial front and linger through Tuesday. && .BEACHES... Issued at 556 PM PST Sat Feb 14 2026 The combination of spring tides and storm surge will bring minor high tide flooding to the San Francisco Bay and Monterey Bay through Tuesday. Up to 1.0 ft of inundation is expected in the San Francisco Bay, with up to 1.5 ft in the Monterey Bay. At the San Francisco tidal gauge, high tide is expected to at 9:34 AM Sunday, 10:16 AM Monday, and 10:58 AM Tuesday. High tide timing varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and throughout the San Francisco Bay, respectively. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PST Tuesday for CAZ006-506-508- 529-530. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 4 PM PST Wednesday for CAZ514. Wind Advisory until 8 PM PST this evening for CAZ516>518-528-530. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST Wednesday for CAZ517-518. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Tuesday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PST Tuesday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Gale Warning until 3 AM PST Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM....MM AVIATION...Behringer MARINE...KR Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

282 FXUS66 KOTX 162254 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 254 PM PST Mon Feb 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A mix of rain and wet snow for valleys Monday evening transitioning to snow showers Tuesday through Thursday. - Periodic hit and miss heavy snow showers next week resulting in winter travel conditions. && .SYNOPSIS... A active weather pattern this week. Mountain snow and rain in the valleys transitioning to on and off snow showers Tuesday into the weekend with lowland accumulations. && .DISCUSSION... Today and tonight: Round 1 has begun to move out of the INW this afternoon. Another surface low and the associated cold front will sweep through the inner mountain west this evening. This wave will feature another band of moderate rain and snow focused in the in extreme eastern WA and north ID as strong warm air advection brings strong low level frontogenesis. The best chances for accumulating snow are on the Camas Prairie and central Panhandle mountains (2- 5). As the surface low shifts east in eastern Montana, precipitation intensity will decrease from west to east into Tuesday morning. Models are still showing the potential for minor accumulations tonight in Spokane, but confidence remains low. Tuesday through Sunday: Northwest troughing will continue with very cold mid level temperatures as cold as -38C. This pattern favors areas of periodic short lived heavy snow showers in the Inland Northwest and will require significant nowcasting. The best chance Tuesday will be in the eastern third of Washington and north Idaho where models show sunshine in the late morning and early afternoon. Ensemble clusters are still in excellent agreement of a very deep trough off the Pacific coast of the Pacific, which favors drier but still unsettled conditions beyond Friday. DB && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: Low stratus will continue to bring IFR/MVFR ceilings across the Basin and valleys (70-90% chance). Snow will continue at KEAT and occasionally mix in at KMWH. KLWS will be warm enough to stay mostly rain. KGEG-KSFF-KCOE-KPUW have potential for snow around 3-9z with the cold front passage ushering in colder temperatures. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Moderate to high confidence in precip type, with moderate confidence in transition times. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 28 39 26 36 22 35 / 80 20 30 40 30 40 Coeur d`Alene 29 39 25 35 22 35 / 90 40 30 60 50 50 Pullman 27 39 27 34 24 34 / 90 40 50 80 40 50 Lewiston 32 45 32 39 27 39 / 90 20 40 50 30 30 Colville 29 38 23 36 20 33 / 70 30 20 40 40 50 Sandpoint 31 37 24 32 21 32 / 90 60 30 70 70 60 Kellogg 29 36 26 34 22 33 / 90 70 50 80 70 70 Moses Lake 26 42 25 39 24 37 / 30 10 10 20 10 30 Wenatchee 26 38 26 37 25 34 / 20 10 10 10 20 40 Omak 29 39 24 36 20 33 / 30 10 20 10 20 30 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for Northeast Mountains. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM PST this evening for Okanogan Highlands. Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Waterville Plateau. ID...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Tuesday for Central Panhandle Mountains-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties. && $$

831 FXUS66 KPDT 162253 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 253 PM PST Mon Feb 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Significant mountain snowfall through Wednesday *Winter Weather Advisories Active* - Additional snowfall Thursday onward, lowland potential && .DISCUSSION... Current radar and visible satellite imagery shows bands of moisture extending southwest to northeast across the area under overcast skies. This is in response to a slow moving cold front passing through our area today, which is associated with an upper level trough that is dropping along the British Columbia coast and becoming a closed low later this afternoon off the Washington/Oregon coasts. This feature will slowly open back up into a trough late Tuesday before sliding through the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. This slow moving low/trough will advect cold air into the region, allowing high temperatures to reach into the upper-30s to mid-40s across lower elevations of the Columbia Basin and Central Oregon with low temperatures dipping into the upper-teens to mid-20s through Wednesday. The trough will also tap into moisture on its decent along the coast, allowing for persistent mountain snowfall to occur through Wednesday, especially across the Oregon Cascades and the northern Blue Mountains. Thus, Winter Weather Advisories are active across both regions until 11 PM Tuesday for the east slopes of the Oregon Cascades and until 3 PM Wednesday through the Northern Blue Mountains as 6-10 inches of snowfall will be possible. Confidence in these snow amounts is high as the NBM advertises an 85- 95% chance over the Oregon Cascades and an 75-85% chance across the Northern Blue Mountains of receiving 6 inches of snowfall or more through 10 AM Wednesday. A reinforcing upper level trough follows closely behind the earlier week system, exhibiting a similar path along the British Columbia coast Wednesday before opening up and moving across the Pacific Northwest on Thursday. This will keep cold air over the region and allow snow levels to drop to near the Columbia Basin floor Wednesday and Thursday mornings. All ensemble members suggest up to an inch of snowfall through the Northern Blue Mountain foothills Wednesday and Thursday morning. In addition, 51% of members advertise up to an inch across the Lower Columbia Basin including the Tri-Cities, Hermiston, and Yakima areas. However, amounts near an inch are more optimistic as the NBM highlights a 35-60% chance of measurable snowfall (0.01" or greater) along the Northern Blue Mountain foothills Wednesday and Thursday morning and less than a 10% chance Wednesday and a 10-20% chance for Tri-Cities, Hermiston, and Yakima on Thursday morning. There is also a 40-60% chance of Thursday morning snowfall across Central Oregon (Bend/Redmond/Madras) per the NBM, but LREF ensemble members are more optimistic with a 70-80% chance. These discrepancies across model suites point to low confidence in expected snow amounts across lower elevations late in the week, which is in response to marginal conditions coupled with the overall strength and path of the incoming upper level system being in question. Unsurprisingly, better chances for measurable snowfall will occur over the Cascade, Blue, and Wallowa Mountains later in the week, with current amounts reaching advisory criteria across the Oregon Cascades (5-8") and near advisory amounts over the Northern Blue Mountains (6-10") Thursday through Friday. This may lead to advisories being issued Wednesday afternoon/evening, but current confidence is low due to the overall spread of 6-8" related to 48- hour snow totals Thursday through Friday. Also of note is that the NBM provides only a 50-60% chance of advisory snow amounts across the Northern Blue Mountains. There is greater confidence via the NBM over the Oregon Cascades of 80-90% of advisory level snowfall, but the 6-8" spread in snow amounts is still present which would barely meet criteria if the 25th percentile snow amount comes to fruition. Stay Tuned. 75 && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Precipitation moving through the region will continue to bring periodic low CIGs with reduced vsby under heavier precipitation at sites PDT/ALW into this evening, with improving conditions overnight. Meanwhile, low CIGs at sites PSC/YKM are expected to improve over the evening, and remain above 3kft through the remainder of the TAF period. Otherwise, mostly VFR conditions will prevail at all other sites...except site DLS where low CIGs around 1kft may develop overnight (confidence 30%). Breezy winds (12- 17kt with gusts up to 25kts) will continue at site RDM and are expected to redevelop at site PDT this late afternoon. Winds will weaken overnight, but site BDN will see winds increase to 12-15kts with gusts 20-25kts tomorrow morning. Otherwise, winds will be light. Lawhorn/82 && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 27 45 27 41 / 60 30 40 40 ALW 30 46 29 41 / 70 30 60 50 PSC 29 48 28 47 / 20 10 20 20 YKM 23 41 23 41 / 10 20 10 10 HRI 29 47 27 45 / 40 10 30 20 ELN 21 36 22 37 / 20 30 20 20 RDM 22 39 18 37 / 20 30 20 20 LGD 25 41 24 37 / 90 50 70 80 GCD 24 39 22 35 / 80 60 50 60 DLS 29 44 29 44 / 20 50 30 40 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM PST Wednesday for WAZ030. OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM PST Wednesday for ORZ502. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST Tuesday for ORZ509. && $$ DISCUSSION...75 AVIATION...82

552 FXUS65 KREV 162017 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1217 PM PST Mon Feb 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Major Winter Storm is Here: The first period of heavy snowfall continues through this evening with the next round Tuesday. Feet of snow expected across the Sierra with widespread travel disruptions expected through Wednesday. Another quick moving storm is increasing snow changes for Thursday at all elevations. * Strong Winds and Blowing Snow: Tuesday`s storm will be colder with lighter, fluffier snow as snow levels crash to all valley floors. This, combined with strong Sierra wind gusts up to 50 mph (100+mph at crest), will cause blowing snow and periods of whiteout conditions. * Foothill, Valley Floor Snow impacts: Snow is most likely in Western Nevada foothills areas above 5500 feet today, with rain/snow mix at times for valleys. For Tuesday, gusty winds with increasing snow during the day, with greatest snow impacts (40-80% of at least 4") for the Tuesday PM/Wednesday AM commutes. && .DISCUSSION... What You Can Do: * Check the roads before you go! Call 5 1 1 or check CalTrans or NDOT. * If you must travel, keep a winter kit in your vehicle. * Plan on significant delays in travel with increased risk of road closures and chain controls. Set the alarm a little earlier the next few mornings. * Keep an eye on the detailed forecast at www.weather.gov where you can read all the latest Winter Storm products. Here are the forecast conditions and impacts for the region through Wednesday morning. For ALL the science-y snow details, see the Avalanche section below. Today`s Briefing - www.weather.gov/rev/BriefingPage ---------------------------------------------------- EASTERN SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA: * Bottom Line Up Front: Non-emergency travel is strongly discouraged with heavy snowfall rates and periods of whiteout conditions forecast through early Wednesday morning. * Timing: Snow continues through this evening with lighter snow showers around 12am. The next shot of snow arrives by 4am-7am and continues through early Wednesday morning. * Snow Totals through Wednesday: Tahoe Basin: 2 to 3 feet, highest on west shore & Alpine county, Above 7k feet: 3 to 5 feet. Mono County: 1 to 3 feet along and west of US-395, 3 to 5 feet at highest elevations of Sierra crest. 2 to 6 inches for Chalfant Valley. NE CA: Surprise Valley 2 to 6 inches, 6 to 12 inches west of US-395, localized totals up to 2 feet west of Highway 89, 4 to 8 inches for valley areas, including Susanville and Doyle areas. * Winds: Plan on strong winds through Tuesday night. Gusts of 50-60 mph are likely (>60%) for wind prone areas in Mono County, with other areas in the Sierra gusting as high as 40-50 mph. Otherwise, ridgetop gusts will likely top 100 mph. Gusty winds will create areas of blowing snow and low visibility at times. ---------------------------------------------------- WESTERN NEVADA: * Bottom Line Up Front: Rain/snow mix into this evening with light accumulations for elevations near and above 5500 feet. Main impacts start this evening for northwest NV and late tonight for western NV as snow levels drop to all valley floors. Plan on hazardous travel midday Tuesday through the Wednesday AM commutes. * Changes: Winter Storm Warning in effect for Reno, Carson City, Minden locales Tuesday. * Timing: Rain or a rain-snow mix will continue for most areas, with some breaks especially from I-80 southward this afternoon. There could be some light snow accumulations after 6pm tonight, especially for areas I-80 northward. The heaviest snow spreads across most areas from Tuesday through Wednesday morning. * Snow Totals: This evening, light accumulations (1" or less) below 5500 feet, with 1-3" of wet snow above 5500 feet. Through Wednesday AM, at least 4" down around the Reno-Carson metro areas and for northwest NV, and 6-12+" for foothills above 5000 ft. For west central NV, up to 3" with around 6" for higher terrain. * Winds: Southwest wind gusts up to 45 mph are likely (>70%), with higher 50+ mph gusts in wind-prone areas. Periods of blowing snow possible with lower visibility late tonight into Tuesday. ---------------------------------------------------- By Wednesday, there will still be some residual snow showers ongoing in the Sierra, but we will start to see some clearing for areas of western Nevada. Although it will be a very brief break. Another system kicks in on this storm`s heels bringing more snow Thursday-early Friday. Friday and Saturday will be quite chilly, but offer a bit of a break between the storms. There are signals for another storm by next weekend, so it appears we have finally entered a more winter-like pattern with an open storm door. -Edan && .AVIATION... * For Sierra terminals, widespread aviation impacts through Wednesday morning. Plan on prolonged periods of IFR/LIFR conditions, particularly on Tuesday, with significant snow accumulations on runways and gusty-strong winds producing widespread turbulence and shear. * Western Nevada terminals will see mainly rain through this afternoon with MVFR/brief IFR conditions. Snow could mix in with the rain at times through the evening, with less than 10% chance for 1" of snow accumulation. Winds and LLWS increase tonight- Tuesday, with surface gusts 30-40 kt at times. For Tuesday, snow begins between 15-18Z and becomes nearly continuous until around 06-08Z, with at least a 40% chance for runway accumulations at least 4" at the main terminals. MJD && .AVALANCHE... Our major, multi-day winter storm is here! Widespread heavy snow is projected from today through early Wednesday morning. * Snowfall totals and rates: Through early Wednesday morning, 2-4 feet of snow along the crest, with up to 5 feet in southern Mono county. Heaviest snowfall rates will be this afternoon, with rates of 1-2"/hr across most avalanche center terrain (localized rates of 3+"/hr in southern Mono county). Another round of higher snowfall rates kicks off around 10 am Tuesday that will persist through the evening. * SLRs and SWE: Lower SLRs at the onset of the storm system (10- 12:1), increasing to 13-14:1 by late tonight. The coldest air arrives Tuesday, increasing SLRs to 15-16:1. SWE of 2.5-4" through early Wednesday morning, with up to 5" along the highest peaks, mainly in the Tahoe Basin and southern Mono county. * Ridgetop gusts: Southwest winds with gusts of 50-60 mph today (locally higher in southern Mono county) increase to 70-90 mph by late tonight. Peak wind gusts of 100+ mph. -Giralte/Edan Avalanche Weather webpage - www.weather.gov/rev/Avalancheweather && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST Wednesday NVZ001-005. Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST Wednesday NVZ002. Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Tuesday to 4 AM PST Wednesday NVZ003. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Tuesday to 4 AM PST Wednesday NVZ004. CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST Wednesday CAZ070. Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST Wednesday CAZ071>073. && $$

260 FXUS66 KSTO 162147 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 147 PM PST Mon Feb 16 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread rain, gusty winds, isolated thunderstorms,and substantial mountain and foothills snow expected throughout the week. - Major travel impacts in the mountains and foothills with light snowfall accumulations possible below 1000 feet in Shasta County on Wednesday and Thursday mornings. - Potential for active weather to continue into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... ...Today through Friday... A strong and cold trough brings widespread moderate to heavy rain, periods of heavy snow for the mountains and foothills, gusty south winds, and isolated thunderstorm chances to interior NorCal throughout the week. Snow levels around 3500-4500 feet today are expected to fall to around 1500-2500 feet from Tuesday onward. Some fluctuations down to 1000 feet along the Sierra and below 1000 feet in the northern Sacramento Valley will be possible, particularly on Wednesday and Thursday morning. Heaviest snowfall, with snowfall rates up to 2 inches per hour, is expected through Tuesday, followed by a brief break of light to moderate snowfall on Wednesday, with snowfall rates up to 1 inch per hour returning by Thursday. As a result, the Winter Storm Warning has been extended through 10 pm Thursday evening and to include low elevation portions of Shasta County. Likewise, as periods of gusty south to west winds continue as the system remains over the region this week, the Wind Advisory has been extended through 10 pm Thursday, with strongest winds gusting 35 to 45 mph, anticipated Tuesday and late Wednesday through Thursday. While periods of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected for most Valley locations, instances of urban and roadway flooding will likely continue, with some potential for rises on small streams and creeks. Additionally, isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon and evening hours tonight and Tuesday, although the highest chances, up to 20%, are currently anticipated on Tuesday throughout most of the Valley. Primary hazards with any thunderstorms that develop will be heavy precipitation, small accumulating hail, and gusty winds, with a low chance for an isolated funnel cloud or weak tornado. Ensemble guidance is generally in agreement that by late in the week, the trough will begin ejecting eastward toward the Rockies. This looks to introduce a period of primarily dry weather to the region on Friday, although some lingering mountain snow showers will remain possible. While some uncertainty remains with respect to the intensity of lingering snowfall on Friday, at least gradual improvements in travel conditions are anticipated at this time. ...Next Weekend... While the aforementioned system currently impacting the region is expected to trail off as it pushes eastward, ensemble guidance is beginning to indicate a separate trough digging southward from the Gulf of Alaska by the weekend. Exact timing and resultant details remain highly uncertain, but there is increasing potential at this time for additional periods of active weather to continue through the weekend and into early next week. && .AVIATION... MVFR/IFR conditions expected in areas of -RA/RA and possible TSRA at TAF sites through 03z Tuesday followed by a brief break in precipitation and a return to generally VFR conditions overnight. Highest chances for TSRA expected between 22z and 03z Tuesday. Additional MVFR/IFR in precipitation then expected to spread through the region after 10z Tuesday. Breezy winds with variable direction up to 11 kts through 00z become predominantly south winds after 03z with an expected increase in wind/wind gusts moving toward 12z Tuesday. IFR/LIFR conditions in SN/+SN expected across the mountains today followed by a brief break overnight after 06z Tuesday with similar conditions returning by 12z Tuesday. Snow levels around 3500-4500 feet begin falling to 2500-3500 feet after 06z Tuesday. West- southwest winds remain gusty through the forecast period with surface wind gusts up to 40 kts at times. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST Thursday for Burney Basin / Eastern Shasta County-Motherlode-Mountains Southwestern Shasta County to Western Colusa County-Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley-Northern Sacramento Valley-Shasta Lake Area / Northern Shasta County-West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas County/Lassen Park. Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST Thursday for Central Sacramento Valley-Northern Sacramento Valley-Southern Sacramento Valley. && $$

605 FXUS65 KMSO 161910 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1210 PM MST Mon Feb 16 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - A cold front arriving Tuesday morning will bring valley snow in time for the morning commute. - There is a potential for snow squallssudden, heavy bursts of snow and windwith the morning frontal passage. - Accumulating snow across north-central Idaho, light snow in western Montana Wednesday. - Expect some of the coldest temperatures of the season Wednesday through Saturday mornings, with lows in the teens potentially stressing newborn livestock. - A shift to a cooler, wet pattern is expected to last through the end of the month and potentially into early March. Weather models remain in good agreement that a cold front will sweep across the region Tuesday morning. While there are minor timing differences regarding when the rain and snow will arrive, the overall impact remains the same: most valleys in western Montana and central Idaho can expect snow for the Tuesday morning commute. Because many areas will stay warm overnight ahead of the front, it is unclear how long snow will melt on pavement before it begins to accumulate. Expect varied road conditions; surfaces may be just wet in some spots but could transition to ice or snow rapidly around shady corners. With this Pacific cold front pattern, snow squalls are a concern. Currently, a widespread outbreak looks unlikely because the front arrives early in the morning before the atmosphere can "prime" with daytime heating. Our computer models for snow squalls show low values through Tuesday. However, based on pattern recognition, the most likely area for sudden visibility drops and heavy snow bursts is east of Missoula along Interstate-90 through Butte. We will monitor this closely, as the early morning timing is the main factor limiting the squall threat. With the cold air mass over western Montana, weak but steady lift over central Idaho on Wednesday will cause light to moderate snow fall Wednesday and Thursday. Expect 2 to 6 inches of new snow in the mountains of central Idaho. After the front passes, a very cold air mass will slide south along the Continental Divide. Current patterns suggest the deepest cold will stay east of the Divide, but a shallow layer is expected to spill into western Montana valleys. This will bring some of the coldest temperatures of the winter so far. Thursday morning looks to be the coldest, with single-digit lows in Kalispell and areas east of Highway 93. Most of western Montana will see lows in the low teens, while central Idaho will remain milder with lows in the mid-20s. These cold mornings will warm up slightly toward the weekend but will persist through Saturday. The combination of cold and scattered snow showers may be stressful for newborn livestock. Overall, we have shifted into a more active pattern with frequent storms and cooler temperatures. This trend is expected to last through the end of February. Standard physics-based models keep this cool, active pattern going into early March, while AI-driven models suggest a trend back toward normal weather to start the month. && .AVIATION...A moderately strong surface low tracking from Lemhi County(17/0900Z/0200MST) to east of the Divide by 1500Z/0800MST will drive a potent cold front through the region Tuesday morning. This system brings a chance of snow squalls, particularly between 1100Z and 1500Z(0400-0800MST), with an area of enhanced snowfall stretching from the Clearwater Mountains of Idaho into west- central/northwest Montana. Expect IFR to LIFR conditions as visibility drops to 1/2SM in moderate to heavy snow, accompanied by vertical obscurations and sharply lowering ceilings. Rapid pressure rises behind the front will support a sudden shift to northwest to west winds gusting 30 to 40 knots, creating localized blowing snow. While snow will be slower to taper off across northwest Montana, the remainder of the region will be breezy and trending toward VFR conditions in the afternoon. A relatively dry Arctic cold front will bring northeast winds along and west of the Divide Tuesday night. A system will bring snow to the region Wednesday, with easterly winds continuing in parts of western Montana. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM MST Tuesday for Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains. Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 5 PM MST Tuesday for Butte/Blackfoot Region...Flathead/Mission Valleys... Kootenai/Cabinet Region...Potomac/Seeley Lake Region...West Glacier Region. Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM MST Tuesday for Lower Clark Fork Region. ID...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Tuesday for Northern Clearwater Mountains...Southern Clearwater Mountains. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Tuesday for Lower Hells Canyon/Salmon River Region... Orofino/Grangeville Region. Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 5 PM MST Tuesday for Eastern Lemhi County...Western Lemhi County. && $$

983 FXUS65 KBOI 162147 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 247 PM MST Mon Feb 16 2026 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night...The turn to active weather is currently under way. Current satellite imagery shows the cold front encroaching farther into eastern Oregon, with the radar filling in. Pre-frontal winds have picked up throughout the day, with a peak gust of 44 mph recorded in Twin Falls. Winds are expected to increase more throughout the day and behind the front overnight. A Wind Advisory has been issued for southern Twin Falls County and the western Magic Valley, with gusts up to 55 mph. As the front moves east through SW Idaho this afternoon, precipitation will fill in (aided by a low that will get steered over our area). The period of heaviest precipitation will come late tonight into early Tuesday morning. For low elevation valleys most of this precip will fall as rain, as snow levels will initially be between 4,500-6,500 ft (lowest west). With snow levels dropping to valley floors overnight, snow/wintry mix isn`t out of the picture for lower elevation valleys early Tuesday morning. However, this will also be when precipitation is ending, so little to no accumulation is expected. Although, with the strong winds in the western Magic Valley, even a dusting of snow can impact visibility. In terms of liquid totals, lower elevations will generally see between 0.5-0.30 inches of rain this afternoon through tomorrow morning (lowest in eastern Oregon where the front has already crossed). In terms of snow, the Winter Weather Advisory remains generally unchanged, with 6-12 inches of snow expected above 6,000 feet and 2-6 inches in mountain valleys. Have expanded the advisory into the Camas Prairie, while snowfall totals will be on the lower side (1-3 inches), wind gusts of up to 55 mph create a blowing snow concern. A brief reprieve from precipitation will come Tuesday morning. However, an incoming trough and cooling temperatures aloft (500mb temps of -30 to -40 come Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon) will allow for some instability to build in each afternoon. This will support more convective snow/graupel showers (10-15% chance of thunder/lightning in showers). These showers will also result in localized visibility reductions as low as a quarter mile as well as gusts up 45 mph. Precipitation totals will be variable because of the showery nature, but locations impacted could pick up another 0.5-1 inch. Continued showers over terrain will give way to an additional 6-12 inches of accumulation above 6,000 ft over the course of Tuesday afternoon through early Thursday. .LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...A trough will remain over the area with cool and unsettled conditions. Cold air aloft will provide enough instability for afternoon snow/graupel showers, especially over the mountains, with partly cloudy skies at night and patchy fog. Temperatures will be around 10 degrees below normal through Friday. Another system moves across OR into NV on Friday, with a reinforcement of cold air aloft, enhancing snow showers over the mountains. Depending on where the center of that shortwave moves, could see a few inches of snow accumulation. A ridge builds into the area on Saturday with drier conditions and warmer temperatures as a strong upper level trough moves south out of the Gulf of Alaska along the West Coast. As this evolves, strong south-southeast surface winds expected on Saturday and Sunday as the system approaches with much warmer temperatures. Lowered precipitation in the far extended as NBM and WPC is too wet for the Saturday and Sunday period as the area is under strong southwest flow aloft and in the warm sector of the system. Temperatures Sunday and Monday rebound into the mid to upper 50s in the valley locations. That system eventually moves inland late Monday with precipitation becoming widespread over the mountains. && .AVIATION...VFR with conditions deteriorating today. MVFR- IFR showers developing along a cold front with mountains becoming obscured by midday in eastern OR and this evening in SW Idaho. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 20-30kt increasing SW 35-50kt this evening. Surface winds: SW-SE 15-25kt, except 25-40kt near KTWF this evening ahead of cold front, becoming W-NW 10-20kt behind the cold front overnight. Brief gusts up to 45kt along cold front in ID. LLWS possible near KJER KTWF this evening. KBOI...VFR. Showers developing this evening with MVFR to IFR, changing to SN around 8z/Tue tapering off around 10z/Tue, and becoming VFR around 12z/Tue. Brief LIFR possible along cold front. Surface winds SE 15-25kt shifting to NW 10-20kt. Brief gusts up to 40kt possible along cold front. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM MST Tuesday IDZ011-013-015-028-029. Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM MST Tuesday IDZ016-030. OR...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM MST /7 PM PST/ this evening to 8 AM MST /7 AM PST/ Tuesday ORZ063. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM....KA AVIATION.....KA

097 FXUS65 KLKN 162039 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1239 PM PST Mon Feb 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... 1237 PM PST Mon Feb 16 2026 * Strong southwest winds in Central Nevada today and Tuesday * A series of storm systems will impact Northern and Central Nevada this afternoon through Wednesday evening, and Thursday afternoon into Friday * Snow levels will drop to the valley floor early Tuesday morning * Winter driving conditions likely on all roads Tuesday night and Wednesday morning && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Sunday) Strong series of upper level troughs on approach to Nevada today will bring strong winds, rain, and snow across the state through Friday. Strong southwest winds have developed across central and northern Nevada ahead of the first upper trough which is currently over California. Winds of 25 MPH to 35 MPH with gusts up to 55 MPH will be possible today lasting into the morning hours with patchy areas of blowing dust possible. Because of this, a wind advisory in effect across central Nevada through Wednesday evening. Precipitation from this upper trough will begin this evening with a winter weather advisory in effect starting at 4 PM. For the valleys and passes, thanks to the warm temperatures of the last few days, precipitation will start as rain. Unfortunately, this winter models have not handled the timing of precipitation change over to well, showing a cold bias in forecast temperatures. Current projections show a change over occurring overnight between 10 PM and 2 AM, which matches the timing of the heaviest precipitation. If timing is any later the bulk of the precipitation with this first wave may well be rain/snow mix for elevation below 6000 ft. After a brief lull, wave two will push into Nevada Tuesday night into Wednesday afternoon. This wave looks to be the strongest wave, and colder than the first. Snow levels by Tuesday morning will have dropped to the valley floors and precipitation type with this wave looks to be all snow. This second wave has trended a bit south over the last few runs with central Nevada looking to pick up the most accumulations with this second wave. Overall valley snow totals have come down a bit due from previous runs due to warmer temperatures and lower overall QPF in the models. Between this evening through Wednesday, northern Nevada valleys could receive between 0.10 and 0.50 of water, of that 1 to 5 of snowfall. N NV passes could see between 2 to 6 of snow, while mountains see all snow with up to 12 to 24 of snow. Central NV Valleys could see between 0.20 to 0.60 of water of which 2 to 6 of snow could fall, US 50 Passes could see between 3 and 8 of snow with central NV mountain seeing up to 2 feet of new snow. After another brief lull a third upper trough looks to pass through Nevada Thursday evening through Friday. Current model forecast show this system to be the drier than the previous two, with overall QPF ranging between 0.05 and 0.35. Good news is this will be in the form of snow with an additional 1 to 3 for the valleys and 2 to 6 for the passes and range summits. For next weekend a shortwave ridge will serve to quiet things down, but models show the potential for a fourth upper level storm system moving in for next Monday bringing more chances for rain and snow for the west. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence in the chances for strong southwest winds with local areas of blowing dust this afternoon and evening. There is moderate confidence for lower elevation rain, mountain snow showers tonight changing over to snow across Nevada Tuesday morning There is moderate to high confidence in a second stronger system moving through Nevada Tuesday evening into Wednesday with snow accumulation in the valleys of 1 to 5, Passes seeing 2 to 8 and mountains seeing between 1 to 2 feet of snow by Wednesday evening. There is moderate confidence for a third system bringing light snow showers Thursday into Friday. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are forecast through Tuesday morning. Strong winds have developed ahead of an upper trough for KEKO, KELY, and KTPH. Expected winds of S-SW20-30G35-45KT possible through 12Z Tuesday. Other locations (KWMC, KBAM, KENV) in the north will see winds S-SW15-20G35KT this afternoon. BLDU from the strongest winds could produce reduced VSBY to one mile or less but confidence remains too low to place in TAFs. VCSH is expected after 22Z across KTPH and KWMC, and by 01Z Tuesday for KBAM, KEKO, and KELY. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PST Wednesday NVZ030-031-035>041. Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PST Wednesday NVZ034. Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST Tuesday NVZ035-037-040-041. && $$ DISCUSSION...98 AVIATION...98