319 FXUS66 KSEW 281649 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 949 AM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026 .SYNOPSIS...A weak frontal system passes across the region today, bringing some reinforcing cloud cover and some light rain chances across mostly the western and northern parts of the area. Conditions trend drier and warmer Wednesday through Friday, but a return of cooler and cloudier conditions are expected for much of the area this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...A weak frontal system will move into the region today, providing for some breezy southerly winds ahead of the front and some reinforcing cloud cover across much of the region this morning. This system will bring some light rain chances across the coastal areas and across the northwestern portions of the area, but it won`t be organized or strong enough to bring much in the way of impact to the most of the interior portions of the region. The exception could be northern Whatcom County where around a 15% chance of a thunderstorm exists (generally north and east of Bellingham). Behind this system, a bit of a transitional day is expected on Wednesday with heights beginning to rise a bit but a typical pattern of morning clouds and sun in the afternoon yielding temperatures near normal. A bit more of an uptick in temperatures Thursday, with Minor HeatRisk across most of the area as afternoon high temperatures return to the mid to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...Ensemble guidance remains in fairly good agreement for the start of the long term period with Friday likely to be shaping up as the warmest day of the week across most of the area with the ridge amplifying and daytime high temperatures reaching the lower to mid 80s across the interior. With this warm up, HeatRisk is expected to remain only in the Minor (Yellow) category for nearly all of the area given the current overnight low temperature forecast. That said, if the pattern shifts earlier enough for a longer stretch of warming that allows for warmer overnight temperatures, this could end up increasing the potential for areas of Moderate HeatRisk to emerge. Looking ahead, ensembles suggest the most likely scenario to be a return of a cooler, cloudier and potentially showery pattern for the weekend. This would bring temperatures near or slightly below seasonal normals, but again keep the rain chances highest near the coastal areas. && .AVIATION...Weak front cliping the area today, with southwesterly flow aloft. MVFR ceilings lingering along the coast and central Kitsap Peninsula. Despite the weak system, ceilings will lift and even scatter out to VFR levels after 19z. KSEA...VFR ceilings above 5000 feet through the day and evning lowering to 2000 to 3000 feet 13z-15z. Ceilings will likely remain VFR through Wednesday. There is a 35% chance of of a brief period of ceilings less than 3000 feet around 15z Wednesday morning. Southerly winds 4 to 8 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots around 18z. Winds easing after 03z, and then are expected to shift to northerly. 71% of REFS members have this shift by 04Z. && .MARINE...Weak cold front moving through the waters today. High pressure will build in behind the front tonight then remain over the waters through Friday. Another weak system will reach the waters over the weekend. Small craft advisory winds over the inland waters into the early afternoon hours today. Small craft advisory winds likely Friday and Saturday evening in the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Seas generally in the 4 to 5 foot range into the weekend. Felton && .FIRE WEATHER...A weak front pushes across the region this morning. While there`s around 40-50% chance of a wetting rain across the northern coast and in the Olympics, elsewhere showers will remain rather light. There is still around a 15% chance of a thunderstorm, but lightning coverage is expected to be rather limited at best if any does develop. Drier and warmer conditions then return Wednesday through Friday, with minimum humidity values reaching the upper 20s and approaching critical thresholds on Friday. However, low-level flow remains onshore to provide for good to excellent overnight recoveries, and this looks to be a short-lived trend as the pattern shifts back to cooler and cloudier conditions for the weekend. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM PDT this afternoon for Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands- Puget Sound and Hood Canal. && $$

346 FXUS66 KPQR 281816 AAB AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 1115 AM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026 Updated aviation discussion. && .SYNOPSIS...Persistent onshore flow will bring near-average temperatures with varying degrees of morning clouds and afternoon sunshine for much of the next week. A series of weak fronts will bring notable chances for light rain and drizzle to portions of the Washington and north Oregon coasts today and this weekend, while Friday is likely to be the warmest day. && .DISCUSSION...Now through Monday...The large-scale pattern will remain fairly steady through the next week with the region wedged between upper-level troughing over the Gulf of Alaska and upper-level ridging over the Rockies and Central Plains. In general, the weather locally will be typical for the mid-summer: morning clouds followed by increasing afternoon sunshine, seasonable temperatures, and largely dry conditions, but with some variations as the relative strengths of these two dominant features change. Today, an upper shortwave passing to the north will tilt the scales in favor of upper troughing, sending front toward the coast resulting in slightly below normal temperatures across the region, namely afternoon highs in the low to mid 60s at the coast and upper 70s to low 80s within inland valleys, as well as chances for light rain or drizzle along the northern Oregon and southern Washington coasts and within coastal terrain. Chances for accumulating rainfall (0.01 inches or more) are less than 10% in Lincoln and Lane Counties, 20-40% in Tillamook and Clatsop Counties, and 50-80% in Pacific County. Inland, chances are lower, only 5-25% from the Portland metro north into the Lower Columbia and Cowlitz Valleys. Wednesday through Friday, the upper-level ridge will strengthen and retrograde westward into the Great Basin, increasing heights aloft locally and tipping the balance toward warmer and drier weather. Continued onshore flow will limit the likelihood of hazardous heat, but except above-normal high temperatures most likely in the upper 60s to low 70s along the coast and in the mid to upper 80s within inland valleys by Friday. These temperatures result in only Minor HeatRisk across the region, with the chances for Moderate HeatRisk of around 5% along most of the I-5 corridor except 15-45% in the Portland/Vancouver metro, highest in the Tualatin Valley. By the weekend, there is higher uncertainty in the evolution of the upper-level pattern, but many ensemble members depict more pronounced troughing returning to the Pacific Northwest, favoring cooler temperatures and further chances for rainfall. At this time, rain chances peak on Saturday along the coast and especially from Lincoln City northward. -36 && .AVIATION...Through 18Z Wednesday...At 18Z Tuesday, satellite and surface weather observations depicted mostly clear skies over the Oregon Cascades and Willamette Valley. A narrow band of clouds with VFR ceilings around 7000 ft remained in place over KPDX amd KTTD, however this cloud deck is expected to scatter out by the early afternoon. Meanwhile, a decaying cold front was beginning to push inland along the south Washington and north Oregon coast. This front will bring a brief period of light rain to KAST between 18-19Z Tuesday. The remaining TAF sites should stay dry. MVFR ceilings at KONP are already beginning to scatter out, and MVFR ceilings are expected to scatter out at KAST by 19-20Z Tuesday. The main uncertainty with the aviation forecast is exact ceiling heights late tonight into tomorrow morning, as well as whether or not cloud cover will be predominately scattered or broken. The latest guidance currently suggests a broken cloud deck will attempt developing over the north Oregon Cascades and portions of the Willamette Valley and Portland metro between 06-12Z Wednesday. However, probabilities currently favor low-end VFR ceilings with this potential stratus deck. Probabilities for MVFR ceilings below 3000 ft peak between 10-16Z Wednesday between 15-35% at all TAF sites, except 45-55% at KAST. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Scattered clouds with ceilings above 7000 ft are expected today, resulting in VFR conditions. VFR conditions will most likely remain in place through 18Z Wednesday, however there is a 15% chance for MVFR ceilings below 3000 ft between 10-16Z Wednesday. Light and variable winds around 5 kt are expected to become northwesterly later this afternoon, with gusts up to approximately 15 kt by the late afternoon with an incoming sea breeze. -23 && .MARINE...Seas of 4-5 ft per buoy observations are expected to continue with a dominant west to northwest swell at 8-9 seconds and a secondary long-period south-southwesterly swell persisting through much of the week. Light southerly winds early this morning will build and veer out of the north to northwest by this evening behind a weak frontal boundary. Maximum gusts will most likely remain in the 15-20 kt range, however intermittent or isolated gusts to 25 kt may occur during the frontal passage, most likely to the north of Cape Falcon. More typical summertime northerlies will then continue through the remainder of the workweek. Another weak front looks to traverse the waters early this weekend, after which northwesterly flow will strengthen and veer out of north into early next week as high pressure builds offshore. Confidence in wind gusts of at least 20-25 kt is moderate to high on Sunday, increasing from around 60% west of the mouth of the Columbia to greater than 90% offshore of Florence. Those chances are even higher on Monday, some 90-95% or higher across the coastal waters. The chances for gale-force gusts on Monday are low but not negligible, generally 10-20% south of Cape Foulweather as well as within 10 NM of the coast from Cape Falcon to Cape Foulweather. -36 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

422 FXUS66 KMFR 280830 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 130 AM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Seasonal weather continues through the week, with a slight 5-degree warmup on Friday. * East side areas may see early morning smoke accumulation, with afternoon breezes helping to clear that smoke out. * Gusty winds possible over the coastal waters, the coast, and some inland areas this weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Quiet, fairly typical summer weather continues for southern Oregon and far northern California. Southwest flow remains in control aloft, between persistent troughing over the northeastern Pacific and a very resilient and dominant ridge centered over the Four Corners region. This flow will keep the area dry for the foreseeable future, but there are a few minor details of interest through the week ahead. Calm overnight conditions may allow for morning smoke accumulation in Lake and Klamath counties as well as parts of Modoc County. Daytime westerly breezes look to be enough to prevent constant accumulation, but this pattern does look to continue through at least Wednesday. A few shortwaves are expected to traverse the steady southwest flow aloft, but most will pass just to our south. The strongest impulse will pass directly overhead Thursday, and despite the ridge blocking the preferred moisture transport vectors, there will be a slight increase in atmospheric moisture. A few ensemble members are resolving isolated thunderstorm development east of the Cascades as the impulse passes on Thursday afternoon, but these members represent only about 5% of the grand suite, so while possible, thunderstorm activity is very unlikely. Daytime highs will remain near seasonal norms across the area, with a slight 5-degree warmup expected on Friday. Forecast temperatures have crept up a degree or two, with parts of the Rogue and Shasta valleys possibly hitting 100 degrees. With overnight lows staying cool and daytime highs decreasing over the weekend, there`s no expectation of any heat headlines. A broad upper level trough and associated dry cold front is expected to pass to the north of the area over the weekend. Atmospheric moisture remains too low for any precipitation, but the front will produce gusty winds as it passes, particularly over the East Side, in coastal areas, and over elevated terrain, but much will depend on the time of day the front passes, and therefore how much momentum can be mixed down to the surface. Depending on the wind`s orientation, the eastern Rogue Valley (Shady Cove to Gold Hill to Ashland) as well as the Shasta Valley may see gusty winds as well. && .AVIATION...28/12Z TAFs...VFR will prevail through the TAF period for most of the area. The exception will be the coast and coastal valleys, where marine stratus is resulting in MVFR/IFR conditions. These will likely persist well into the morning, then clear to VFR by midday. Wildfire smoke impacts will be limited to areas north of roughly Crater Lake/Chemult/Christmas Valley. Expect a similar pattern for the next several days with gusty winds developing in the afternoons, then easing after sunset. -BPN/BR-y && .MARINE...Updated 100 AM PDT Tuesday, July 28, 2026...Light winds early this morning will shift to the north and increase today. Relatively calm mixed seas will become increasingly dominated by wind seas. By tonight, winds will increase and seas become steep enough south of Cape Blanco to warrant a Small Craft Advisory that will then persist through late Wednesday night. On Saturday, a low pressure system passing to the north may bring very strong northerly winds over area waters as it tightens the gradient and enhances the thermal trough. Although the timing and strength of these winds are uncertain, the latest models are showing a high likelihood of gales and very steep seas, and nearly a 30 percent chance of storm force gusts by early next week. -TAD/BPN && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Wednesday to 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ356-376. && $$

438 FXUS66 KEKA 280730 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 1230 AM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Moderate risk for sneaker waves along the Lost Coast and Mendocino Coast through Wednesday. * Elevated fire danger Tuesday for interior areas due to breezy afternoon winds. * Hot temperatures return late week into the weekend. * Coastal stratus likely to form each night and clear each afternoon through at least the middle of the week. && .SYNOPSIS...Near to slightly below normal temperatures are likely for the interior areas, while near to slightly above normal coastal temperatures are likely continue through Wednesday. Breezy afternoon winds elevate fire danger in eastern Trinity, eastern Mendocino, and Lake counties. Hot interior temperatures return late this week. && .DISCUSSION...The extended period of lighter northerly winds has shut down much of the coastal upwelling. This created warmer than average coastal water temperatures, into the low 60s, and a weaker low level inversion. The lack of cool air advection from the coastal waters and quickly dispersing daytime stratus will once again lead to some warmer coastal temperatures Tuesday. The northerlies will be trending higher this week, allowing for more typical seabreeze temperature moderation. A continued troughing pattern will once again bring breezy afternoon wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph in the interior areas Tuesday afternoon, mainly in the higher elevations and channeled terrain (such as Clear Lake and the Trinity River valley). Low afternoon relative humidities in Trinity, eastern Mendocino, and Lake Counties along with these winds brings an elevated fire weather threat. There is high confidence in high pressure rebuilding over the area later this week. NBM is showing moderate to high probabilities for high temperatures in the triple digits for most interior valleys starting Friday and continuing into next week. Currently, minor to moderate HeatRisk is expected. /JB/JJW && .AVIATION...06Z TAFs.Stratus reformed Monday evening after periods of full clearing and VFR conditions. The marine layer has been deepened by a passing weak shortwave, and a second one is forecast to pass through Tuesday. This should maintain mostly MVFR to IFR ceilings Tuesday. Coastal seas surface temperatures have been warmer than average, in the low 60s, and this has contributed to a largely weakened low level inversion. Aside for the potential for some lingering stratus to get driven back to the coast with the afternoon seabreeze, effective afternoon clearing is expected with the weak inversion. VFR conditions will prevail for the interior. Northerly winds will increase through the afternoon hours, with some gusts near 20 kts expected at CEC, ACV and UKI. Stratus will begin expanding back over the coast Tuesday evening, but should not be initially too shallow. /JJW && .MARINE...Northerly winds will begin trending higher over all zones starting Tuesday. Winds north of Cape Mendocino look to generally remain below 20 kts through the week. The focus of stronger northerlies will remain around and south of Cape Mendocino. Northerlies will strengthen to 20-25 kts in these southern zones, locally with gale conditions up to 30 kts around the cape. Short period northerly seas will increase over the waters while a persistent small long period southerly swell is reinforced by a second Tuesday. A ridge of high pressure will strengthen through the weekend, bringing increased chances for gale strength northerlies. /JJW && .FIRE WEATHER...Breezy westerly winds will continue in the afternoons Tuesday for interior areas and may be particularly breezy with gusts of 20 to 30 mph over the ridges and channeled terrain in eastern Trinity, northeast Mendocino, and Lake Counties. These areas are forecast to have low afternoon RHs in the teens and 20s. Localized and brief critical conditions are possible with these low RHs and winds. Overnight recoveries are expected to be good aside from the higher elevations of Lake and eastern Trinity County. Closer to the coast, a deep marine layer brings high RH and perhaps stratus and/or fog into the river valleys overnight. Afternoon RH ranges from 60s to 80s near the immediate coast to 20s to 40s in interior Humboldt, Del Norte, and western Mendocino Counties. Ridging rebuilds later this week into the weekend bringing much warmer high temperatures to the interior with most valleys forecast to reach the high 90s and triple digits. Afternoon RHs will again be in the teens and 20s for the eastern interior. Weak shortwaves arrive over this same period which may support some breezier afternoons along with this heat and low afternoon RH. Confidence is low at this time, but elevated fire weather conditions are again possible. /JB && .BEACH HAZARDS...A long period southerly swell with periods up to 19 seconds remains in from tropical systems in the Eastern Pacific. A second reinforcing long period southerly swell will arrive Tuesday. These energetic swells will bring a low to moderate risk of sneaker waves that would be most hazardous on steep, south and southwest facing beaches along the Lost Coast and Mendocino Coast. Sneaker waves are a unique hazard, with up to 30 minutes between waves. Large, unexpected waves can sweep across the beach without warning, sweeping people into the sea from rocks, jetties, and beaches. These sneaker waves can also move large objects such as logs, crushing anyone caught underneath. Even ankle to knee deep water can knock you down and drag you out when a sneaker wave hits. Pay attention and stay above the high water line and any wet sand to stay safe. If the ground is wet, waves have surged there recently. Stay safe and never turn your back on the ocean! /JJW && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday afternoon for CAZ104-109. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ455- 475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

029 FXUS66 KMTR 282055 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 155 PM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1129 PM PDT Mon Jul 27 2026 - Breezy onshore winds expected each afternoon and evening through early midweek - Gradual warming starting midweek, with Moderate HeatRisk for interior locations through the weekend - Elevated fire weather threat across the interior North and East Bay, Diablo and Santa Lucia Ranges this week - Hazardous beach conditions at the Pacific Coast with an increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents through the end of the week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 155 PM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026 (This evening through Wednesday night) Water vapor imagery continues to show a relatively deep trough of low pressure situated along the West Coast, with an embedded shortwave moving into the Pacific Northwest at this afternoon. Meanwhile, the dry slot remains situated over the Central California, with sunny skies prevailing this afternoon except along portions of the immediate coast, where the marine layer remains. As a result, most locations are running similar to or slightly warmer than this time yesterday. Temperatures today will depend on location, but expect seasonally warm conditions inland, and a litter cooler than seasonal along the coast. Onshore winds are also starting to increase this afternoon, with breezy conditions continuing through the evening hours, which should help moderate temperatures a bit as well. Expect another pleasant evening and cool overnight conditions prevailing. Between the predominately clear skies, decreasing winds, and dry air in place, we should see another night of good radiational cooling. Most locations will be in the 50s to lower 60s, with the coldest spots dipping into the upper 40s despite the time of year. Conversely, the thermal belted regions will struggle to cool once again, with temperatures remaining in the mid 60s to around 70. Expect the marine layer to make a pretty widespread return tonight to the inland valleys, another that next disturbance pushes inland across the West Coast later tonight and during the day on Wednesday. Therefore, expect another very pleasant day across the region on Wednesday, with temperatures similar to if not slightly warmer than today, especially across the inland areas. Palmer && .LONG TERM... Issued at 155 PM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026 (Thursday through next Monday) High pressure will then start to expand from the Desert Southwest into the region on Thursday, and continue to build for Friday and into the weekend. As a result, even drier and warmer conditions will prevail, especially across on inland areas. In fact, confidence is high that the inland areas will be down right hot, with the hottest locations potentially ranging between 100 and 110. 850 mb temperatures support this, as they appear to warm into the mid to upper 20 deg C range, peaking on Saturday. The confidence for the coastal areas though are moderate at best and less clearly defined. Temperatures along the coast will still largely be dependent on the marine layer, which should be considerably squashed, and the wind regime. While winds over all appear to remain relatively light through the period, some weak onshore flow looks like it will continue to persist along the coast, giving coastals areas some reprieve from the hottest temperatures. The ensembles remain divergent for Sunday through early next week, as to whether the heat will linger longer or finally start to retreat. At this point in time, like the idea of the NBM, which kind of splits the difference, with inland areas remaining quite warm, just not as hot as the weekend, while coastal areas are more seasonal. Palmer && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1042 AM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026 VFR is imminent for the Bay Area terminals with KHAF potentially bouncing back and forth through the TAF period at MVFR/IFR. A local circulation will maintain MVFR/IFR ceilings at KMRY through at least 19z with clearing expected by 20z. The relatively unorganized marine layer continues to be a challenge to predict extent and timing. North Bay terminals if they see stratus ceilings it may not be until around sunrise Wednesday. Vicinity of SFO...As mentioned above, stratus clearing is imminent with VFR persisting through at least sunset. Hi-res guidance suggests the potential for stratus spilling over and through the San Bruno gap to KSFO as early as sunset with more confidence in development after midnight, with earlier clearing time as warmer temperatures begin to mix down by Wednesday morning. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Satellite trends indicate a local circulation maintaining MVFR/IFR ceilings as late as 20z at KMRY with KSNS at VFR and will continue through the remainder of the afternoon and early evening. IFR/LIFR ceilings are possible late in the TAF period. && .MARINE... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 1042 AM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026 Northwest breezes will continue to be fresh to strong through the remainder of the week into the weekend. Coastal jet regions along the Big Sur and Point Reyes will likely see gale force gusts with moderate seas becoming rough through the middle of the week as northwest winds increase. Tropical activity will continue to produce long period swell along our coastal waters into the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 155 PM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026 The elevated fire weather threat will continue across portions of the area through at least this weekend. Overnight RH recovery will remain moderate to poor at locations at or above 2,000 feet with values between 35 to 50 percent, with some favored locations struggling to even reach 30 percent. This will be particularly true across the Mayacamas, highest peaks of the East Bay Hills, the Diablo Range, Santa Cruz Mountains, Santa Lucia and Gabilan Ranges. Nocturnal drying (rapid decrease in RH through the pre- dawn hours) may also transpire which will increase the burn period or time in which fire behavior may remain active. Afternoon RH will remain critically dry with values between 20 and 40 percent, with far southern portions of the interior Central Coast potentially seeing min RH near 10 percent. Energy Release Components (ERC) are projected to climb above the 95th percentile across the interior Central Coast. Individuals across the area are advised to avoid activities that may spark a fire. Fire crews are urged to exercise extra caution when executing any prescribed burns, especially where fuels, topography, and weather align. && .BEACHES... Issued at 155 PM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026 Long period southerly to southwesterly swell of 16-18 seconds will continue to impact our coastline over the next several days, bringing hazardous beach conditions to the Central Coast and the San Francisco Bay Area. Sneaker waves and strong rips currents will be the primary conditions, with breaking waves up to 12 feet along some south and southwest facing beaches and break points, such as Santa Cruz, Pacifica, and parts of Stinson or Ocean Beach. This can be particularly surprising when wave heights increase suddenly after a period of seemingly tranquil wave action. In fact, sneaker waves can have 20+ minutes in between the larger sets (breaking waves) with significant "flat/calm looking" times between them. Due to the long period, sneaker waves are powerful and can catch beachgoers by surprise, resulting in people and pets being swept into the cold, turbulent ocean. Rip currents are strong enough to pull even the strongest swimmers away from shore. Check marine conditions before you head out! Swim near a lifeguard, if possible. Maintain a safe distance from the water, and stay away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Never turn your back to the ocean and if you have small children or pets at the beach, please keep an eye on them. Hazardous beach conditions are anticipated to persist through Saturday afternoon. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Saturday afternoon for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Palmer LONG TERM....Palmer AVIATION...JM MARINE...JM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

922 FXUS66 KOTX 281815 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1115 AM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Tuesday will see elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions for Central WA. - Near normal temperatures in the 80s through Wednesday. Above normal temperatures return Thursday through Saturday with highs in the 90s. - Critical Fire Weather expected for portions of the Inland Northwest Saturday, August 1st due to windy and dry conditions. && .SYNOPSIS... Breezy winds across Central Washington on Tuesday will bring elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. Temperatures will remain near seasonal normals in the 80s through Wednesday before warming back into the 90s toward the end of the week. Saturday will be the day to watch for critical fire weather concerns due to strong winds and low humidity. && .DISCUSSION... Tuesday: Upper-level troughing off the PNW/British Columbia coast will move inland, and the associated shortwave will usher in a dry cold front across the Inland Northwest. The resultant dry and gusty conditions will lead to elevated to locally critical fire weather concerns to central and eastern Washington. Areas with the most risk include the Waterville Plateau and Okanogan Valley, which have a 20- 50% chance of maximum wind gusts 40 mph or greater this afternoon. Elsewhere, expect wind gusts 20 to 25 mph with sustained winds 10 to 15 mph. With minimum relative humidity values mostly staying above 20 percent, fire weather headlines have not been issued for this afternoon, but any new or ongoing fires may still experience rapid spread due to the combination of dry conditions and gusty winds. There is a 10 to 20 percent chance of very light showers at the Cascade crest, but elsewhere chances are at or very near zero. Wednesday through Friday: Once the cold front moves through, the region will again be in between offshore troughing and a ridge over the central US. Little change in temperatures will be seen, with highs remaining in the mid to high 80s and lows in the mid 50s. By Thursday, the ridge will begin strengthening and retrograding back west, centering over the Desert Southwest to end the work week. This will result in an uptick in temperatures with Friday being the warmest day of the week and expected highs in the low 90s. This will bring a return of mostly isolated Moderate HeatRisk values, and all those sensitive to heat-related illnesses should take precautions to remain adequately cool and hydrated. While winds on Wednesday will be seasonably breezy, the thermal gradient increasing on Thursday and Friday will bring wind gusts 15-20 mph to the basin, Cascade gaps, Waterville Plateau, and Okanogan Valley areas. These two days will be elevated fire weather days due to the drier air mass ushered in by the cold front dropping relative humidity values into the teens. Next weekend: Long-term guidance and cluster analysis continue to strongly support the next potential critical fire weather day being Saturday. An upper level trough will usher another cold front through the area, alongside a strong surface level low on the lee side of the Rockies creating a strong pressure gradient with the off shore surface high. This will result in a strong push of winds alongside continued dry conditions. Looking at NBM probabilities, a majority of the forecast area, there is a 60 percent chance and above at 30 mph maximum wind gusts. When looking at the chance for 40 mph wind gusts, the chances shrink down to the Waterville Plateau, Okanogan Valley, and upper Columbia Basin areas, which have a 40 to 50 percent chance and and above. Within the Waterville Plateau area, there is even a 30% chance and above for wind gusts 50 mph or higher. These probabilities support the potential for a critical fire weather day, and conditions will be very closely monitored as any new ignitions or ongoing fires could experience rapid spread. Throughout the week into next weekend, chances for precipitation remain at or near zero percent, bringing very little relief at this point of the fire season. /AS && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: Mainly VFR through the 18Z TAF cycle. Visibilities have improved to 10SM for all sites this morning and are expected to stay VFR through the afternoon. Any flight restrictions will be due to lowered visibilities resulting from surface level wildfire smoke and haze likely overnight as inversions set in. West to southwest winds will become breezy this afternoon and evening with most airfields seeing gusts of 20-25kts. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low to moderate confidence in minor impacts to visibilities in wildfire smoke. Moderate to high confidence in timing and magnitudes of wind speeds and wind shifts today. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 56 86 56 88 57 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 55 86 54 88 55 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 50 83 51 85 50 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 62 91 61 92 61 95 / 0 0 10 0 0 0 Colville 50 87 48 90 52 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 53 85 51 87 54 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 54 83 53 86 53 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 54 87 53 89 55 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 60 88 60 89 61 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 55 89 58 91 58 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Air Quality Alert until 11 AM PDT Wednesday for Central Chelan County-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Northeast Blue Mountains-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Chelan County-Western Okanogan County. ID...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Wednesday for Central Panhandle Mountains-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area. && $$

051 FXUS66 KPDT 281721 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1021 AM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Diurnally driven winds Tuesday 2. Chances of dry thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday 3. Dry conditions will persist through the week && .DISCUSSION... Current satellite shows little cloud cover over the region with only a few cumulus clouds forming in the south and some along the Cascades. Mostly clear conditions will persist through the rest of the night with smoke lingering overhead. Southwest flow aloft will continue through the periods with a shortwave making its way across the region. This will bring elevated winds to the region through the day today. The primary areas for elevated winds will be through the Cascade Gaps, Basin, Gorge and the Kittitas/Yakima Valleys. Winds are expected to reach to 25-35 mph with NBM showing probabilities between 70-90%. Winds will settle after Tuesday as the region becomes wedged between the Four Corners high and the upper level low over the PacNW. Westerly winds will then take over. Winds will turn to diurnally driven through the remainder of the week. Even with the elevated winds, the shortwave will bring cooler temperatures therefore raising the RHs just enough that fire weather concerns will be elevated but not critical. Another shortwave will makes its way into the region Wednesday bringing a bit of instability with it mainly across the southern portion of the region. Lightning density shows the southern portion of the region being where the storms are likely to occur with probabilities in the 10-20% range. These will likely be high based storms. Looking at forecast soundings, the NAM has MUCAPEs in the 500-700 range with lapse rates of 8-8.3 C/km, LI of -2, bulk shear of 25 kts and PWATs at only 0.50 inches. These storms will also be dry in nature. With the southwest flow turning to west flow, conditions will remain dry over the region through the week outside of the occasional thunderstorms. Temperatures will be primarily near normal except for through the eastern mountains where temperatures will be slightly above. Temperatures will be in the 80s to low 90s through the week with confidence in the temperatures between 70-80%. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions to prevail through the period. Winds will gust 20 to 30 kts this afternoon, before decreasing this evening. There is still a chance of some MVFR conditions due to wildfire smoke mainly overnight and into the morning hours at any site. && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated fire weather concerns through the period due to winds. RHs will increase slightly as and upper level shortwave moves across the region. The next day for the potential for fire weather concerns will be Wednesday with the possibility of high based dry thunderstorms. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 87 54 86 56 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 90 59 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 92 56 90 57 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 89 55 89 56 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 90 56 89 58 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 81 51 85 54 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 87 47 88 47 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 90 53 90 54 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 92 52 93 53 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 83 58 87 58 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Wednesday for ORZ041-044-049- 050-502-503-505>511. && $$ DISCUSSION...90 AVIATION...77 FIRE WEATHER...90

017 FXUS65 KREV 281937 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV Issued by National Weather Service Elko NV 1237 PM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Hot and dry conditions through the rest of the week, with a warming trend bringing triple digit heat to the lower valleys by this weekend. * Nearby fires producing smoke may reduce air quality and bring impacts to sensitive groups. * At this time, there is no precipitation anticipated the next 7 days. && .DISCUSSION... Dry, southwest flow continues across the region this week. This is due to high pressure over the Four Corners and a long-wave trough off the Pacific Northwest coast. High pressure will gradually move west and strengthen Wednesday through late Saturday. As such, afternoon temperatures will gradually trend upward into the weekend. Well see the typical afternoon breezes each day with gusts of 20-25 mph. We may also see smoke filter into northern Washoe and northeast CA due to fires in ID and OR. Latest guidance indicates a slower warming trend, with temperatures hitting the triple digits for lower valleys now by Thursday, leading to widespread Moderate HeatRisk. From Friday into Sunday, temperatures between 100-105 degrees are likely (>80% chance) in the lower elevations of Mono County, eastern Lassen County, and for much of the inner basin and range. These aforementioned areas will experience Major HeatRisk during this timeframe. Other areas in western NV will also approach triple digit heat, with 80s to low 90s for the eastern Sierra communities. One good aspect of the upcoming heat is that due to the dry airmass in place, well see efficient cooling at night which will help us with heat-related concerns. Ensembles are showing that this ridge will breakdown on Sunday and Monday. At this time, the most this will do is a slight decrease in temperatures, slight increase in winds, and no precipitation. Another ridge builds back into the region by around Tuesday, with a continuation of hot, dry weather. && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$

835 FXUS66 KSTO 281945 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1245 PM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated Fire Weather Conditions in the northern Sacramento Valley, Burney Basin, and Sierra Foothills Friday through Sunday due to Hot Temperatures and Low Humidities. - Widespread Moderate HeatRisk Thursday and through the weekend for the Valley and Foothills. && .DISCUSSION... Satellite continues to show clear skies across CA this afternoon, with temperatures expected to climb into the 90s. Lower 100s are expected in the northern Sacramento Valley. The hot and dry conditions are due to a ridge over the central United States building westward into the western United States. This trend will continue through the week and into the weekend. With the ridge building over the western United States our heat increases, with Moderate HeatRisk expected Thursday through Monday. Main areas affected are the Valley and Foothills, with patchy Moderate HeatRisk in the mountains. EFI signals continue to remain higher for the heat, and our confidence remains medium to high for the widespread nature of the heat. Latest guidance did back off slightly on the coverage of the Moderate HeatRisk and also has only isolated incidences of Major HeatRisk. Thus, we decided to hold off on any product related to heat for this weekend. We will continue to monitor the heat and any deviation of the HeatRisk across the area. With the heat comes dry conditions as well, with increasing confidence in low RH values across the Sierra Foothills, northern Sacramento Valley, and Burney Basin. Low relative humidity values during the afternoon and evenings are looking more probable, with poor overnight recoveries. We have gone ahead and headlined for Elevated Fire Weather Concerns Friday through Sunday due to the heat and low RH values in the Sierra Foothills, northern Sacramento Valley, and Burney Basin. The potential for single digit RH values are possible over the weekend when the heat is at its highest. Areas that could see this would be in the Burney Basin and northern Sacramento Valley. Confidence is on the lower end on when the ridge will break down and move further east. Guidance struggles with the evolution of the ridge. None the less, the heat and dry conditions are likely this weekend so make sure to stay hydrated and limit outdoor activities. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Winds will be out of the southeast to southwest for the Sacramento sites at 5-10kts this afternoon/evening. A few gusts up to 20kts can`t be ruled out this afternoon and evening. Winds overnight go light and variable for the TAF locations, with continued clear skies. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

429 FXUS65 KMSO 281922 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 122 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Hot, dry, and smoky conditions continue with the persistent weather pattern through Saturday. - Dry thunderstorm potential: Thursday afternoon through Friday morning across southwest and west-central Montana. - Elevated winds and fire weather: Saturday and Sunday region- wide. Dry southwesterly flow on the western periphery of the upper-level ridge will maintain hot, dry, and smoky conditions across the Northern Rockies through the next several days. Air Quality Advisories have been updated to remain in effect for Lemhi county through at least Friday. Expect degraded air quality and visibility to persist. Despite the relatively opaque appearance of the sky due to regional wildfire smoke, intense late-July sunshine has still been able to overcome most smoke-shading effects. Temperatures have still been able to climb to within a degree or two of their clear-sky potential, keeping daytime temperatures several degrees warmer than normal for this time of year during the afternoon and evening hours. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances continue in southwest Montana each afternoon. Attention to detail in the forecast indicates the progression of several weak shortwave troughs embedded in this southwesterly flow ejecting into the region Thursday afternoon through Friday morning . Strong mid-level lapse rates and sufficient shear combined with a very dry sub-cloud layer will support dry thunderstorms capable of producing lightning and strong erratic outflow winds even during the overnight and early morning hours. A broad longwave trough off the Pacific Coast heads inland this weekend breaking down the stubborn ridge that we have been dealing with for quite some time. Strong pre-frontal warming will drive temperatures near the 100 degree mark on Saturday particularly for valleys along and south of I-90. As the cooler airmass begins to pass through Saturday into Sunday, expect widespread westerly winds sustaining 10-25 mph with gusts of 25 to 40 mph across the region. This wind/heat/ and low RH combination will significantly elevate fire weather concerns and create hazardous, choppy conditions on lakes and waterways. This system will remain mostly dry with no significant or notable precipitation expected, but temperatures will drop 10-20 degrees behind the front for Sunday and Monday bringing temperatures back to near and just below normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION...Wildfire smoke remains a persistent impact to the regional airspace. Slant-range and surface visibilities continue to bottom out near 5SM at times, especially pronounced during the late afternoon through sunset as optical depth increases and the day`s fresh smoke arrives from fires burning in Oregon and southwestern Idaho. Anticipate continued mountain obscurations. Ridgetop winds will remain out of the west and southwest at 10-20 knots through the forecast period. Hot temperatures will continue to increase density altitudes through Saturday impacting aircraft performance particularly at higher elevation terminals and airfields as temperatures continue to creep into the mid and upper 90s each day. Note: AMD NOT SKED for KGPI due to missing METARs. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

933 FXUS65 KBOI 282006 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 206 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and dry. - Isolated storms in the Magic Valley today and tomorrow. - Smoke will limit high temperatures and continue degraded air quality. - A dry cold front this weekend will bring critical fire weather with gusty winds and very dry conditions. && .SHORT TERM /Through Thursday Night/... High pressure over the four corners will maintain warm and dry southwesterly flow aloft. This will lead to a general warming and drying trend heading into the weekend. Though, embedded shortwaves and lingering smoke will complicate the forecast some. Shortwaves in the flow from a stalled low off the British Colombian coast will trigger afternoon isolated convection near the Magic Valley today and tomorrow. Thunderstorms in this region will be capable of producing outflow gusts up to 45 mph and lightning. Most of the storm activity will be in the eastern Magic Valley and south in the highlands, but traveling gusts and distant lightning still pose a threat to the western valley. Thursday evening, the shortwave position changes and central to eastern Oregon is most favored, especially over higher terrain and mountains. Coverage on Thursday will be very limited, with only a 5% chance of precipitation in this area. Wildfire smoke will be in the area through the forecast period. While it will help cool temperatures by a few degrees each day, degraded air quality will remain. && .LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/... While the four corners high begins to slip out of position Friday and Saturday, warming and drying will continue. Both days will be the hottest in the forecast, with temperatures in lower elevations in the mid to upper 90s. Guidance indicates temperatures around 100 degrees are possible if the smoke clears some, although with southwest flow continuing this is unlikely. The stalled British Colombian low begins to move inland Friday, and is set to bring a dry cold front through the area Saturday evening. With saturday being the hottest day, this combination of heat, very dry conditions, and frontal gusty winds will lead to critical fire weather across the area. Behind the cold front, Sunday will be 5-10 degrees cooler than Saturday, but dry and gusty conditions remain, leading to continued elevated fire weather. Temperatures begin to climb again Monday and Tuesday as high pressure rebuilds over Nevada. Southwest flow resumes the transport of hot and dry air early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z Tuesday through Wednesday/... Issued 1148 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2026 Widespread wildfire smoke continues to reduce visibilities as low as MVFR/IFR conditions throughout the area. While visibilities may improve some in the late afternoon, smoke ceilings may stay in place. Isolated thunderstorms will form near the Magic Valley this afternoon, producing gusty winds. Surface winds: SW- NW 5-15 kt. Valley gusts 20-25 kt in portions of E-Oregon tonight. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 10-20 kt. KBOI...Wildfire smoke resulting in MVFR/IFR visibility. Some improvement expected this afternoon, before degrading again during overnight/morning periods. Surface winds: becoming NW 6-12 kt this afternoon, and briefly variable before W-SW tonight. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Air Quality Alert until 2 PM MDT Friday for IDZ011>015-028-029- 033. Air Quality Alert until 1 PM MDT Wednesday for IDZ016-030. OR...Air Quality Alert until 1 PM MDT /noon PDT/ Wednesday for ORZ061>064. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....JM AVIATION.....JM

965 FXUS65 KLKN 281912 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1212 PM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity this afternoon and early evening across far eastern Nevada * Smoke from area fires causing visibility and respiratory issues over northern NV today * Above average temperatures and a warming trend this week * Increasing HeatRisk by Friday and the weekend && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Monday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: High pressure continues to spread west as the week progresses. Thunderstorm potential still exists today along the Utah border and in northeastern Elko county but chances are low, at about 5 to 10 percent. Chances persist for tomorrow but will be even lower than today. The high pressure system is expected to expand far enough west by Thursday to keep moisture out of the forecast area. Smoke from both local and Pacific Northwest wildfires is also expected to have local impacts during this time, particularly in northern Nevada. A very smoky morning was observed in Elko today and several more are expected to follow. Daytime southerly to southwest flow is expected to help clear smoke during the days, however calm or northerly flow during the nights will allow smoke to increase for the late night to early morning hours. Smoke concentrations are expected to be high enough to cause issues for sensitive groups, especially during early morning when concentrations will be highest. The final focus of this forecast will be the heat. Temperatures are expected to climb as the high pressure system establishes itself and widespread Major HeatRisk levels are expected by Friday and especially Saturday. Widespread high temperatures of 100 to 105 degrees are expected for Saturday, which is 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Low temperatures will be in the 60s, somewhat limiting overnight recoveries. While the heat is expected to be at its worst on Saturday, long term outlooks indicate its not leaving any time soon, with intense heat favored through mid to late next week. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Low confidence in storm potential today and tomorrow. High confidence for smoke impacts through at least Thursday. High confidence in extreme heat, particularly for this weekend. No changes were made to NBM output. && .AVIATION...Smoke is not impacting any terminal at this time but may bring periods of decreased visibility to KWMC/KBAM/KEKO/KENV through the next several days. South to southwest winds are expected today, with gusty winds up to 25KT at KELY and KTPH. There is a low chance of -TSRA at KENV today, and as usual any storms could cause strong erratic winds. Otherwise, VFR conditions and light winds expected through tomorrow. && .FIRE WEATHER...Low percentage thunderstorm chances continue to persist in zones 425 and 470 today. Any storms that form are not expected to persist long enough for meaningful rainfall but could produce new starts from lightning. Gusty erratic winds would also accompany any storms. Otherwise, standard afternoon breezes gusting 20-25 mph are expected across the area, along with dry and warming conditions. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...94 AVIATION...94 FIRE WEATHER...94