ZSE Aviation Forecast Discussions

093 FXUS66 KSEW 250943 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 243 AM PDT Thu Jun 25 2026 .SYNOPSIS... A significant change in the weather pattern will begin to take place today. A frontal system will arrive early Friday and will be followed by a cool and unsettled period across Western Washington that will persist into the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... After an extended period of time in which 12 of the past 13 days featured above normal temperatures and an absence of any measurable precipitation, we`re in for a major shift in the weather pattern beginning today. Stratus is creeping inland from the coast and will reach at least some of the interior lowlands by daybreak. The accompanying marine air mass will knock 10 to 20 degrees off high temperatures across interior lowland locations over those of yesterday with mid and level clouds steadily increasing throughout the day. Some light rain ahead of an approaching front will reach coastal areas by late afternoon or early evening. It`ll likely be slow to spread inland to Puget Sound, but we should see a few showers around by early Friday morning as a dissipating front drags itself slowly inland. After a sojourn at or near record high temperature territory in recent days, Seattle will probably only narrowly miss a record low maximum on Friday. Hope you kept your hoodie near the front of the closet. A post-frontal convergence zone is likely to form Friday afternoon and evening. Thunder chances look fairly slim during the period...mainly 10 to 20 percent. The convergence zone will diminish by early Saturday as an upper low closes off and gradually shifts southward along the coast. It will, however, remain unsettled on Saturday with shower chances in the forecast as moisture wraps around the low just offshore. Temperatures will be held below seasonal norms for a third consecutive day. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Looking ahead into the early portion of next week, cooler and unsettled conditions are likely to stay in the picture. Model ensembles maintain a general mean upper trough position over the western third of the lower 48 with upper ridging centered well offshore around 150 W. While not a particularly wet scenario, it keeps onshore flow in place with heights never really recovering much. That keeps temperatures a little below average, skies a little gloomier, and a lingering threat of showers in the forecast now and then. Longer term ensembles point toward a warming trend...after the 4th. Ah, a small taste of normality. 27 && .AVIATION... Onshore flow has brought IFR stratus to coastal terminals early this morning with nighttime microphysics satellite showing marine stratus spreading inland. The arrival of high level clouds will make it difficult to monitor trends over the next couple of hours, but expecting stratus to fill into SEA/BFI around 13Z. Winds will remain out of the south-southwest 5-12 kt, except for near the Strait of Juan de Fuca where winds will be 10-15 kts with gusts up to 25-30 kts through 20z Thursday. A warm front approaches the coast Thursday, with showers increasing as early as 18Z for the coast. Showers become more widespread over western WA by 03Z Friday. KSEA...VFR conditions initially with moderate confidence (50% chance) for ceilings to drop below 2000 feet between 13-17Z before lifting after 17Z. Isolated showers Thursday afternoon will become more widespread in the evening. Conditions are expected to remain VFR through 05Z Friday, with MVFR probabilities increasing from 20% at 05Z to 60% by 12Z. Winds expected to remain out of the southwest at 5-10kt through most of the period. West/southwest winds will pick up after 00Z Friday with gusts up to 20 kts. && .MARINE... High pressure will weaken over the coastal and offshore waters today as a weak surface low and associated frontal system approach the north end of Vancouver Island. The front will move onshore across Western Washington on Friday morning then gradually dissipate as it moves inland. A broad area of weak low pressure will remain over the inner coastal and inland waters into Saturday while high pressure begins to rebuild well offshore. This will likely lead to gusty northwesterly winds over the outer coastal waters along with increasingly choppy seas building to 8 to 10 feet. Varying degrees of onshore flow can be expected for the first half of next week as low pressure remains in place east of the Cascades with broad surface high pressure anchored well offshore. 27 && .FIRE WEATHER... Cooler and wetter conditions will prevail beginning today and persist into early next week that will limit fire weather concerns. There is a low end chance of thunder (10-20%) on Friday, but is likely to be accompanied by wetting rain...especially in and around the convergence zone and in the higher elevations of the Cascades. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. && $$

264 FXUS66 KPQR 251033 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 333 AM PDT Thu Jun 25 2026 .SYNOPSIS...A significant weather pattern change begins today as a frontal system swings through, bringing cooler temperatures and widespread chances for rain tonight through Saturday. There is also a 10-15% chance for thunderstorms Friday afternoon and a 15-25% chance for thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. Conditions trend drier and slightly warmer Sunday through early next week, but we`ll maintain slight chances for light rain showers across the Coast Range and Cascades. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Wednesday...Today marks the beginning of a large-scale pattern change to cooler and wetter conditions as an upper-level low pressure system remains on track to progress into the Pacific Northwest from the Gulf of Alaska. Satellite imagery as of early Thursday morning depicts widespread marine stratus along the coast with increasing high level clouds across the broader region ahead of this next weather system. Temperatures will cool to near normal with mid 70s across the interior lowlands. High resolution model guidance has rainfall via a cold-frontal boundary reaching the coast by late this afternoon/evening and then spreading into the I-5 corridor by late tonight into Friday morning. We`ll remain in this cooler and wet pattern through at least Saturday, but at least total rain amounts at this time appear beneficial and generally non- impactful. Looking at the latest NBM, chances for 48-hour rain amounts exceeding 1 inch from 5 PM Thursday to 5 PM Saturday has fallen slightly since yesterday for locations west of the Cascades: 30-60% for the coast and Coast Range, 5-15% along and east of the I-5 corridor. Meanwhile, chances remain around 70-80% or higher across the Cascades due to westerly flow bringing orographic enhancement. Will note that the western-most parts of the Willamette Valley (west of I-5 including McMinnville and Corvallis) have a less than 5% chance of exceeding 1 inch during this timeframe due to potential rainshadowing from the Coast Range. The decrease in these chances for 1 inch of rain may be due to the fact that we`re in such a dry air mass. This dry air mass may sacrifice some of the initial rain before the atmosphere becomes completely saturated enough for rain to hit the ground. By Friday afternoon, the upper-level trough continues to move south and eventually centers itself right over-top the Pacific Northwest as a closed low on Saturday. Temperatures will further cool aloft allowing for increasing atmospheric instability during the daytime hours and facilitating CAPE values of 50-100 J/kg Friday afternoon for SW Washington and the Portland/Vancouver Metro, and 100-200 J/kg late Saturday morning into the afternoon across the entire area. This instability plus sufficient lift from the low will support a 10-15% chance for heavy showers and thunderstorms across NW Oregon and SW Washington Friday afternoon, and a 15-25% chance for thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. For now, any convection appears rather weak and unorganized (our typical post-frontal pop-up storms). High resolution guidance suggests effective shear remains below 35 kt; therefore, chances these thunderstorms become severe are unlikely (<5%). Otherwise, any strong shower or passing thunderstorms may produce brief heavy rain, gusty and erratic winds, and a few lightning strikes. Also can`t rule out a cold air funnel cloud or two given the time of year, especially on Saturday. The latter half of the weekend into early next week, the majority of ensemble members are showing the broader upper- level low feature shifting eastward and lingering along the interior mountain west, returning relatively drier conditions and a warm-up of a few degrees to our area. This will put high temperatures just below the seasonal normals with low 70s for the interior lowlands and upper 50s to low 60s for the coast). Will still maintain precipitation chances across the Coast Range and Cascades as westerly flow continues to support orographic enhancement of precipitation, though any additional rain amounts appear very light. Still, we`ll have to keep an eye on subtle shortwave features rotating into the region north to south on the back side of the upper-level low which may expand the coverage of showers temporarily - low confidence on the placement/timing of these smaller shortwave features. Ensemble members then suggest another upper-level trough dropping down into the area on Wednesday, however, there is also very high uncertainty with how much precipitation we get, if any. Westerly winds throughout the week will be breeziest along the central Columbia River Gorge and across Upper Hood River Valley, with chances for isolated wind gusts exceeding 45 mph around 10-35% from Friday through early next week, with the highest chances from Sunday to Tuesday. -10/03/99 && .AVIATION...Satellite imagery as of early Thursday morning depicts IFR marine stratus along the coast and increasing high clouds across the region ahead of the next frontal system. Expect IFR conditions along the coast through at least 17-18z Thu, before improving to MVFR between 18z Thu-02z Fri along the north Oregon coast (KAST). Meanwhile, IFR stratus likely (50-70%) hold throughout the day at KONP. Will note that there is a slight chance (15-25%) that KAST doesn`t improve to MVFR and remains IFR. For inland terminals, predominately VFR conditions throughout the TAF period with CIGs gradually falling. After 00z Fri, rain starts at the coast and gradually spreads inland throughout the evening. At the same time, CIGs will drop to low-end VFR for inland terminals with a 15-30% chance for MVFR CIGs at any given hour through 12z Fri. West- northwesterly winds around 5 kt or less through 18z Fri, turning more southwesterly this afternoon and increasing near 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt at KONP. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions through the majority of the TAF period. Increasing high clouds around 25 kft and gradually falling throughout the day. Low-end VFR CIGs this evening as the frontal system moves in and brings rain. 10-30% chance for MVFR CIGs at any given hour between 05-12z Fri. Northwesterly winds under 5 kt through 18-19z Thu, turning west-southwesterly 6-10 kt in the afternoon/evening. -10 && .MARINE...High pressure will maintain northwest winds across the coastal waters through early this morning. Winds are generally expected to remain under 20 kt. Weakening high pressure will give way to a frontal system approaching the area on today. Winds are expected to back west to southwesterly Thursday afternoon before the cold front pushes across the coastal waters Thursday night into Friday. As the front moves in, pressure gradients will tighten and result in brief small craft conditions with southerly wind gusts up to 25 kt across the inner coastal waters north of Cape Foulweather and up to 10 NM offshore. Therefore, a Small Craft Advisory has been issued for these waters including the Columbia River Bar between from 11 PM Thursday to 5 AM Friday. West to northwest winds will persist behind the front later Friday and into Saturday as weak low pressure lingers near Vancouver Island. High pressure gradually builds across the waters late weekend. Seas around 4 to 5 ft through Friday build to around 7 to 9 ft this weekend as a west-northwesterly swell moves through the waters. -10/DH && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ210-251-252. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

030 FXUS66 KMFR 251136 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 436 AM PDT Thu Jun 25 2026 .DISCUSSION...Breezy winds this afternoon will be strongest east of the Cascades, while it will likely be more than a week until we are again quite so warm and dry. A significant pattern change is expected Friday into the weekend, with much cooler temperatures, higher humidity, and precipitation chances. The probability of rain will be highest in southwest Oregon through Friday night, then into northern California on Saturday. This includes a slight chance of thunderstorms over the Warner Mountains on Friday. A gradual warming trend is expected next week. Rain is expected to develop at the coast north of Cape Blanco around 7 PM PDT this evening, then spread both to the remainder of the coast and east across Douglas and northern portions of Klamath and Lake counties overnight. Tonight`s rain will result mostly from the warm frontal portion of an occluding front. The slow-moving cold frontal portion will follow on Friday with the trailing surface trough and axis of the associated upper level trough on Saturday. A strong cooling trend into Saturday, will get a modest start today with readings several degrees lower than yesterday. But, highs on Saturday will be as much as 30 degrees lower than they were yesterday, which would be around 20 degrees lower than normal. The westerly flow pattern will produce around 0.05 inches to 0.40 inches of precipitation in southwest Oregon tonight through Friday night (highest amounts at the coast and eastern Douglas County), and up to 0.10 inches elsewhere in our area. Often, and likely in this case, we do get our highest precipitation totals when the post-frontal upper level trough axis swings across. This is timed for Saturday with it remaining wet in southwest Oregon (an additional 0.05 to 0.15 inches), but a band of higher amounts (0.10 to as much as 0.50 inches) also developing for southeast Siskiyou County into Modoc County and southward. When all is said and done, much of south central Oregon and much of Siskiyou County will have light amounts of a trace to 0.05 inches, but all of the area will experience the cooler temperatures and breezy afternoons. Clouds and weak but steady overnight winds will limit the east- side frost/freeze potential, but Sunday morning (and to a lesser extent also Monday morning) does have a chance. There is good model agreement that we will be on the back side of the cold upper trough on Sunday into Sunday night with some breaks of sun during the day, and lighter rain chances mostly limited to north and northwest facing slopes of Coos and Douglas counties. Monday will be mostly dry with our area likely to be between troughs, as the next one moves into the Pacific Northwest. Generally, an upper trough pattern remains in the area next week, bringing west to northwest flow with slightly below normal to near normal temperatures and perhaps a few shower chances, especially for the coast and Douglas County northward next week. Details will depend on how strong the trough is and the exact east/west location of the trough axis in relation to our forecast area. The trough dominated pattern will likely allow some modest warming during the week, but with readings remaining below normal. && .AVIATION...25/12Z TAFs...The marine layer will remain well entrenched along the coast today. This will maintain IFR/LIFR through around 16Z, before the low clouds lift to a mix of IFR/MVFR later this morning through this afternoon. Then, a front moving onshore this evening will bring light rain with a return of lower IFR to LIFR conditions into Friday. Gusty west to northwest breezes will develop this afternoon and evening. Gusts to 20 mph will be common, but up to 30 mph east of the Cascades. All of our inland areas will remain VFR through this evening, and inland ceilings will then mostly remain VFR into Friday morning. The exception is that areas of MVFR ceilings and rain showers are expected to spread into the Umpqua Valley after 06Z this evening, and continue through Friday. This also will include obscuration of the southern Oregon Cascades after 06Z this evening. && .MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Thursday, June 25, 2026...Steep seas due to fresh northwest swell will linger in the southern waters early this morning. Winds remain relatively weak today through Saturday night, while a frontal system brings periods of light rain. But, stronger winds in the offshore waters will likely bring a steep, fresh west-northwest swell Friday night into Saturday night. Northerly winds will then be stronger early next week, especially south of Gold Beach. This includes a potential for gales in the southern waters Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT early this morning for PZZ356-376. && $$

565 FXUS66 KEKA 250710 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 1210 AM PDT Thu Jun 25 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure over the area brings dry conditions and warm interior temperatures today. An unseasonably strong cold front will bring rain to Del Norte and northern Humboldt counties on Friday, along with significantly cooler conditions. Chilly and breezy weather continues Saturday before a gradual inland warming trend takes hold Sunday into next week. && .KEY MESSAGES * Temperatures drop 10 to 20 degrees cooler across the interior Friday and Saturday. * Wetting rain (greater than 0.10 inches) is likely for Del Norte County, with a chance of wetting rain extending into northern Humboldt County Friday afternoon into Friday night. * A 10 percent chance of thunderstorms exists over the northeastern Trinity County mountains Saturday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge remains established over northwest California early this Thursday morning, but an approaching upper trough will begin to break down the pattern later today. High temperatures this afternoon will cool slightly into the mid to upper 80s for most inland valleys, though lower 90s remain probable in the deeper Klamath and Trinity river canyons. The marine layer stays compressed along the coast today, keeping low clouds and cool temperatures locked in, while tightening gradients create afternoon interior gusts of 15 to 20 mph. On Friday morning, the upper trough moves onshore, expanding and deepening the marine layer to generate areas of morning drizzle along the north coast. By Friday afternoon and evening, the associated cold front will sweep through, spreading rain across the region. The highest probabilities for a wetting rain (exceeding 0.10 inches) are focused over the mountains of Del Norte County (50 to 60 percent) and taper down to 10 percent at the immediate Del Norte coast. Northern and central Humboldt counties carry a 20 to 40 percent probability of wetting rain, with light totals potentially making it east into the Trinity Alps. Breezy northwest winds accompany the front, with interior ridge gusts reaching up to 30 mph. Dry air filters in behind the front on Saturday, but the presence of the cold core overhead will maintain chilly and breezy conditions, keeping interior highs mostly in the lower 70s. Localized destabilization beneath the cold pool will support a 10 percent chance of afternoon thunderstorms over the higher terrain of northeastern Trinity County. The trough exits by Sunday, allowing heights to rise and building inland temperatures back into the upper 80s and lower 90s early next week. && .AVIATION... A shallow marine layer continues to dictate coastal operations early this Thursday morning, with widespread IFR to LIFR ceilings and visibility restrictions firmly entrenched at KACV and KCEC. Expect some slow, temporary scattering to MVFR/VFR late Thursday afternoon. Inland, KUKI will remain VFR through the period with breezy northwest winds developing late this afternoon, gusting to 21 kt. By Thursday night, the approaching upper trough will lift coastal cloud bases into a more uniform MVFR deck. && .MARINE... Northerly winds will temporarily diminish across the northern waters today as the upper trough draws nearer, with lighter winds gradually spreading south into Friday. A fresh northwest swell will build into the waters on Friday, keeping sea heights elevated even as wind speeds bottom out. Strong northerly winds return rapidly Saturday afternoon and evening. Winds are expected to rise to near-gale force by Sunday, with gale-force gusts continuing over the outer waters into early next week as strong high pressure re-establishes itself. && .FIRE WEATHER... An upper-level ridge brings one last day of warm and dry conditions to the interior valleys today. Highs on valley floors will reach the 90s, with a 10 percent chance of localized triple-digit heat up to 105 degrees in the lowest elevations of the Klamath and Trinity river corridors. Minimum afternoon relative humidities will drop into the teens across these interior zones today. A major pattern shift arrives Friday as an unseasonably strong trough and cold front push ashore. Wetting rain is likely across coastal Del Norte County (50 to 60 percent chance of exceeding 0.10 inches), while a 30 to 40 percent chance of wetting rain exists for northern Humboldt County. Southern and eastern zones will remain dry outside of isolated sprinkles. Interior temperatures will drop 15 to 20 degrees by Saturday. As the core of the cold trough positions overhead Saturday afternoon, localized destabilization will support a 10 percent chance of thunderstorms across northern Trinity County. Winds remain light today with typical afternoon valley breezes. Stronger westerly winds develop behind the front Friday afternoon across Lake and southern Mendocino counties, bringing a 70 percent chance of gusts exceeding 30 mph in lower elevations and a high probability of gusts over 40 mph across exposed ridges. Breezy conditions persist Saturday before winds shift to the northeast across Lake County by Sunday afternoon. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for PZZ455-475. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for PZZ470. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

007 FXUS66 KMTR 251111 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 411 AM PDT Thu Jun 25 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1200 AM PDT Thu Jun 25 2026 - Continued mild and dry for Thursday with winds increasing through the day - An upper trough brings cooler temperatures, moisture, and a deeper marine layer for Friday and Saturday - Gusty onshore winds continue to increase, peaking Friday and Saturday, with mountain passes gusting as high as 50-60 mph and marine concerns through the weekend && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1200 AM PDT Thu Jun 25 2026 (This morning through Friday night) The marine layer continues to slowly compress into this morning to around 800-1200ft, with slightly less stratus inundation expected. Patchy fog again is possible along the coastal terrain. Upper-level troughing will begin to push in today, with heights slowly falling. Temperatures overall will be fairly similar to Wednesday, maybe 1 to 3 degrees cooler due to the decreasing heights. A more significant cooldown will arrive Friday as heights continue to fall with the approaching low to the north. While the low stratus will dissipate, an increase in mid to high level clouds is expected through the end of the workweek as moisture increase with the upper-level trough deepening over the West Coast as a large upper-level low sweeps down the Canadian coastline. Gusty onshore winds could begin as early as this afternoon, increasing through the night. A frontal passage Friday could bring about 40-50+ mph winds for mountain passes and wind-prone spots, and 30-35 mph winds for the coastal waters. Low and mid-level moisture will surge in Friday as well, with a deepening marine layer and 50%+ min RH for every location except the very far interior spots. As a result, fire weather concerns will be limited with excellent overnight recovery into Saturday morning. Spotty drizzle and light rain are possible, although, little to no rain accumulation expected. The long-period southerly swell impacting the Pacific Coast beaches continues to slowly subside. While the risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents has decreased, they could still occur...never turn your back to the ocean. The southerly swell is expected to subside through the end of work week before increasing again by the weekend. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1200 AM PDT Thu Jun 25 2026 (Saturday through next Wednesday) The cooler pattern with gusty onshore winds continue into the weekend, with ample moisture and deep marine layer limiting heating. Saturday will be the coolest day of the period and highs will be about 2 to 4 degrees cooler than Friday, with 50s near the coast and 60s to low 70s further inland. Again, spotty drizzle and rain is possible. While troughing pattern is looking to linger longer over the western US, a slight warming trend is expected to begin on Sunday and continue into next week as the the upper low departs and heights increase slowly. Ensemble members continue to trend more in favor with a troughing pattern prevailing into early week which would support a minimal to slow warming trend compared to the cooler weekend. Lingering breezy winds on Sunday will also trend down into next week as the gradient relaxes. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 410 AM PDT Thu Jun 25 2026 Extensive MVFR-IFR stratus has developed across the region, with patches of LIFR stratus near STS. Stratus will retreat to the immediate coast through the morning, with moderate onshore breezes gusting to 20-25 kt in the afternoon and evening hours. Stratus will redevelop across the Bay Area and Central Coast valleys late tonight into Friday morning, while the North Bay valleys remain VFR as locally downsloping flow precludes the development of stratus. Beyond the TAF period, a passing trough should lead to delayed clearing times Friday morning and gustier winds Friday into Saturday. Vicinity of SFO... MVFR-IFR stratus persists into the late morning hours with strong west-northwest winds gusting to 25 to 30 kt developing this afternoon and evening. Moderate confidence in the timing of the incoming stratus tonight, but ceilings should develop by the early morning hours on Friday and not clear out through the remainder of the TAF period. SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO. Vicinity of OAK and SJC... MVFR-IFR stratus continues at the terminals into the late morning hours. Moderate to fresh northwest winds will develop at the terminals this afternoon and evening, and remain breezy overnight. Stratus should develop at both terminals late tonight into early Friday morning, in SJC`s case this will fall near or slightly after the end of the 24-hour TAF period. Beyond the TAF period, OAK might not clear out at all on Friday as a passing trough and gustier winds promote stratus flow through the Golden Gate. Monterey Bay Terminals... MVFR stratus persists at the terminals through the late morning hours when stratus retreats to the immediate coast. Moderate northwest winds gusting to 15 to 20 kt will develop in the afternoon and evening, with stratus decks returning to the terminals early tonight. && .MARINE... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 410 AM PDT Thu Jun 25 2026 Fresh to strong breezes and rough seas will build through the day through the weekend. Occasional gale-force gusts will develop along the coastal waters north of Point Reyes. Hazardous conditions for small crafts will develop tonight and continue through at least early Friday before resuming over the weekend. Long period southwest swell will persist through the extended forecast. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Saturday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Friday for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Friday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0- 10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM....DS AVIATION...DialH MARINE...DialH Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

170 FXUS66 KOTX 251129 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 429 AM PDT Thu Jun 25 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Windy and dry Thursday with elevated to critical fire weather conditions. - Weather changes arrive Friday into the weekend with much cooler temperatures, gusty winds, and rain showers. && .SYNOPSIS... Warm and windy Thursday will lead to elevated to critical fire weather concerns. Bigger changes arrive on Friday and continue into the weekend as a weather system delivers much cooler temperatures, gusty winds, and rain showers for much of the region. && .DISCUSSION... Thursday: A deep low over the Gulf of AK will begin its trek southward today. A shortwave rounding the base of the low will be slung inland resulting in pressure falls over southwestern Alberta but more important will be cooler marine air piling into Western WA. This will create a tightening pressure gradient across the Inland NW upwards of 7-10 millibars delivering persistent winds of 10 to 20 mph from the south to southwest. The layer of winds will be nearly identical from the surface to 700mb further supporting the idea of consistent blustery conditions. Accompanying gusts will not deviate far from the sustained speeds largely adding another 5 to 8 mph or gusts around 25-30 mph. The air mass over Eastern WA and North Idaho will not cool much from Wednesday with highs remaining in the mid to upper 80s. Humidity levels will remain very dry bottoming out between 12-20%. This combination of winds and low humidity levels will result in elevated to critical fire weather conditions which prompted the red flag warnings for today. Would not classify this as a high end red flag warning but any new starts will have the potential to spread rapidly, a trend we have been seeing with several fires over the last week or so given the status of our fuels. The main threat for showers and isolated thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon will be along the Idaho/Montana border as well as the Canadian border and window will be short-lived coming between midday and early afternoon as drier air works northeast. Friday-Sunday: There remains high confidence for a significant pattern change as the aforementioned deep low comes barreling into the Northwest and remains over the region through the weekend. This will bring several opportunities for rain showers and some periods of afternoon thunderstorms. Friday and Sunday to the best the wettest days with the leading moisture plume and cold front coming through Friday then potential for significant wrap around moisture event for Sunday. The mountain districts carry the highest probabilities for wetting rains (more than a tenth - 80-90%) and anywhere from 50-80% chance for a quarter inch or more. These probabilities drop off drastically the further south and west you travel into the Columbia Basin toward the Tri-Cities, Moses Lake, Vantage, and Wenatchee. This leads to a sharp gradient for Wilbur, Davenport, Spokane, and Pullman. The rain will be mostly beneficial. We will need to keep a close eye on Sunday which has some potential for heavier amounts within a northeast to southwest deformation band. Winds will be breezy to gusty through the period. This could prove to be somewhat problematic in the foothills of the Cascades, Columbia Basin, and Snake River if these areas do receive the beneficial rains. The gusty winds will be a daily occurrence with gust potential increasing slowly each day from Friday to Sunday, especially in the lee of the Cascades as the mean low center drifts east and pulls in stronger northwest winds. The good news will be the cooler temperatures and higher humidity values which will be near 30% around Vantage and Wenatchee and locally higher around the Snake River Valley. Monday- Thursday: Ensembles continue to support the idea of a baggy trough over the Northwest with potential for additional reinforcing shortwaves dropping in. The trend will be toward some degree of warming, likely slow, keeping temperatures in the 60s to 70s. Precipitation chances do not look as robust but a continued threat for mountain showers looks favorable given the synoptic setup. /sb && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFs: VFR conditions will prevail through at least 06Z Friday with breezy west/southwest winds around 10-20 kt. There is a 10-20% chance of MVFR ceilings developing around 09Z-12Z Friday for KGEG-KSFF-KCOE-KPUW-KLWS as shower coverage increases through the night. There is a 10-30% chance for thunderstorms from 19z Thursday to 03Z Friday for K63S, KSZT, and K65S with gusty outflow winds up to 25 kts. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is moderate confidence with the coverage and timing of convection in far northeast Washington and north Idaho. Confidence is also moderate to high for persistent south to southwest winds Thursday ahead of an incoming cold front. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 86 53 70 49 67 46 / 10 30 70 60 30 20 Coeur d`Alene 85 55 67 50 65 47 / 10 40 80 70 40 30 Pullman 83 50 68 46 64 43 / 10 50 70 40 20 10 Lewiston 91 59 75 55 71 51 / 10 50 70 70 20 10 Colville 87 50 70 44 68 42 / 20 30 70 90 80 50 Sandpoint 84 52 64 47 63 45 / 20 20 80 80 60 30 Kellogg 83 53 65 49 62 46 / 10 50 80 70 60 30 Moses Lake 88 55 77 50 72 47 / 0 10 20 20 20 10 Wenatchee 85 60 74 55 71 54 / 0 20 50 10 10 10 Omak 89 58 76 51 72 49 / 10 10 40 80 50 30 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM PDT this evening for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-Eastern Columbia Basin - Palouse -Spokane Area (Zone 708)-Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Lower Palouse -Snake River (Zone 709)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707). ID...None. && $$

875 FXUS66 KPDT 251056 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 356 AM PDT Thu Jun 25 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Multiple Red Flag Warnings in effect Today due to breezy winds and low relative humidity - Cooler, breezy, and showery weather is likely (95 percent confidence) Friday into the weekend && .DISCUSSION... Cooler temperatures are expected this afternoon by 5 to 10 degrees on average as more dense sky cover overspreads the region during the afternoon in advance of an upper level low ans westerly jet over the northeast Pacific spreading westerly diffluent mid level flow across the Cascade range. This will bring isolated to scattered mountain showers to the Cascades crest mainly This evening with low enough instability that thunderstorms are not showing up across the HREF members. Broader, stronger surface winds indicated b the NBM showing 25 to 35 knots (roughly 30 to 40 mph) are seen across the Simcoe Highlands, and Lower Columbia Basin/River Gorge This Afternoon, with breezy conditions in all other other zones, barring the eastern mountains. The coolest temperatures of the next 7 days fall over the weekend, as the EC/GFS and Canadian models all drive a second shortwave farther south into SW Oregon/nrn CA helping to carve out the upper low broadly over the Interior NW with unseasonably cool air aloft (560dm 500 mb low). Precipitation probabilities jump to 90% across the Cascades and Eastern Mountains by Friday Afternoon and Evening and begins to back off over the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Showers will develop late in the day across the Cascades and possibly spill over to terminals like DLS/RDM/BDN (30-50% confidence for individual terminals) during the evening. Stronger/gusty winds will develop earliest at DLS (by late morning). Weaker gusts around 20-30 mph will develop by early afternoon at most of the other terminals. Despite potential for precipitation VFR conditions will prevail. && .FIRE WEATHER... Despite increasing cloud cover and not quite as hot temperatures, critical fire weather is possible to likely across several zones This Afternoon. The breezier to gusty winds will be the tipping point as an incoming system aids the development of gap winds and gusty winds across the Lower Columbia Basin. Went ahead and added WA694 to the group of Red Flag Warned zones as eastern sections of this zone came in with 70-80% confidence in 25% or less RH and 15 mph or higher winds this afternoon, especially western sections of the Toppenish Ridge and vicinity. No other changes to previous red flags, which include OR703, OR/WA691 and WA690. For Friday, the breezy winds continue however relative humidity levels drop out of the critical criteria. As the cooler air aloft moves in over the next 2-3 days, increased wetting rain opportunity unfolds Friday Afternoon and overnight into Saturday morning for the higher elevation mountain zones. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 85 52 75 48 / 0 40 40 30 ALW 87 57 76 53 / 0 30 40 30 PSC 89 56 80 51 / 0 20 20 10 YKM 86 56 78 50 / 0 30 20 10 HRI 87 55 78 50 / 0 40 20 10 ELN 81 51 70 45 / 0 30 50 20 RDM 82 47 71 39 / 0 40 30 10 LGD 85 54 71 47 / 0 40 80 90 GCD 86 51 72 43 / 0 60 80 80 DLS 83 57 74 53 / 0 50 40 20 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM PDT this evening for WAZ694. Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM PDT this evening for WAZ690-691. OR...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT this evening for ORZ691. Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ703. && $$ DISCUSSION...71 AVIATION...71 FIRE WEATHER...71

643 FXUS65 KREV 250838 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 138 AM PDT Thu Jun 25 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Warm, dry, and breezy today with choppy lakes and isolated critical fire weather conditions this afternoon for W.NV. * Critical fire weather concerns for W.Nevada due to gusty winds and dry conditions with a strong cold front on Fri & Sat. * Temperatures cooling 10-20 degrees below average over the weekend with light showers possible Friday-Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... One more day of warm, dry, and breezy conditions today before significant changes arrive with a series of cold fronts over the weekend. Highs today will remain in the low 90s for W.Nevada valleys with upper 70s/low 80s for Sierra valleys. Along with increasing cloud cover, wind gusts are expected to increase to around 25-35 mph late this afternoon/evening. Continued dry conditions with gusty winds may yield isolated areas of critical fire weather conditions this afternoon across W.Nevada. Choppy lake waters are expected for W.Nevada lakes including Pyramid. The main weather highlight will be our significant cool down and gusty winds Fri-Sat. Gusty winds prevail on Friday with SW sustained winds of 20-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Stronger winds are expected Saturday with higher sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph across the E.Sierra and W.Nevada. The first frontal passage on Friday will provide a band of light showers north of I-80 late Thursday night into very early Friday morning before tracking south of I-80 through the afternoon. Shower chances will be around 15-25% with a 10-15% chance of an isolated thunderstorm. Accumulations are expected to be light with only about a 10% chance for up 0.10" of precipitation with 15-25% chances northward of Susanville to the Oregon border. The secondary front on Saturday will keep shower chances (25-50%) mainly northward of I-80 with the best potential for up to 0.25" of rainfall mainly across far N.Lassen County into far N.Washoe county near the Oregon border. The overnight hours of Saturday into Sunday may also bring a dusting of snow to higher elevations of the northern Tahoe Basin and Warner Mountains as snow levels snow levels drop to around 7500-8000`. Expect temperatures to drop about 10 degrees from Thursday to Friday with the first front, and then another 5-10 degrees by Saturday/Sunday. This translates into low-mid 70s for W.Nevada and mid-upper 60s for Sierra valleys. Below freezing temperatures for Sierra valleys are most likely (50-70%) by early Sunday and Monday mornings with most W.Nevada communities remaining in the low-mid 40s, but colder rural valleys could dip into the mid-30s. Temperatures will then rebound back in to the mid-upper 80s early next week, then to the low 90s by Independence day. Fuentes && .AVIATION... * VFR conditions today with increasing clouds (FL200) and westerly afternoon gusts around 25-30 kts. Areas of mountain turbulence and LLWS are an increasing likelihood after about 06z this evening for Tahoe terminals and also along Sierra Front terminals including: KRNO, KRTS, KCXP, and KMEV. * A strong, spring-like cold front will bring gusty winds to area terminals Friday and Saturday, where gusts will range 35-45 kts. Additional hazards include LLWS, mountain waves, and visibility reductions for KLOL, KNFL, KHTH due to blowing dust. Fuentes && .FIRE WEATHER... * Critical fire weather concerns are expected this weekend across W.Nevada as series of potent cold fronts track through the area. Red Flag Warnings now in effect for the Sierra Front eastward into the W.Nevada Basin and Range Friday and Saturday. * We will begin seeing isolated areas of critical fire weather conditions by late afternoon today as our afternoon westerly gusts increase to 25-35 mph while afternoon RH drops into the single digits. * Friday will see more widespread gusty conditions as the first front moves through. Southwesterly sustained winds of 20-25 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph are expected across both the E.Sierra and W.Nevada by mid-afternoon through early evening. RH will be trending higher with afternoon minimums around 12-20% across W.Nevada. In addition, there will be 15-25% chances of light showers with a 10-15% chance for an isolated thunderstorm. * Saturday will see stronger wind potential as the main front sweeps through. Higher sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph are expected with W.Nevada afternoon RH dipping back down to 10-18%. Overall, slightly higher RH values these days may negated by the stronger winds, dry fuels/grasses, and recent lightning holdover potential from last weeks storms. * E.Sierra fire weather zones are also expected to see these same strong winds with ridgetops seeing wind gusts near 80 mph. However, fuels have not been reported to be critical and minimum RH is expected to be around 30-40%. * Critical fire weather conditions will lull Friday night into early Saturday as humidity recoveries increase to around 40-70%, but winds will remain breezy for mid-slopes and ridges. Fuentes && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Friday to 11 PM PDT Saturday NVZ420. Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 2 AM PDT Saturday NVZ001>004. Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM to 11 PM PDT Thursday NVZ004. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Friday to 11 PM PDT Saturday NVZ423- 429. CA... Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 2 AM PDT Saturday CAZ071- 072. && $$

960 FXUS66 KSTO 241925 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1225 PM PDT Wed Jun 24 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry this week with minor to moderate HeatRisk. Breezy onshore winds each day will provide relief for the Delta/Sacramento Area. - A weather system moving across the Pacific NW into the Great Basin will bring breezy onshore winds Friday into Saturday with a few showers north, followed by a north wind event Sunday into Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Warm and dry conditions expected today as ridging remains in control of the large scale pattern over the area. Above normal temperatures will rule with 90s across the Valley. This will bring minor to moderate HeatRisk but no concerns for heat headlines. Delta Breeze will continue to bring evening relief through the Delta into the Sacramento area. Thursday is a transition day as a cooling trend begins and continues into the weekend. A deep trough from the Gulf of Alaska will slowly dig into the Pacific Northwest Friday into the weekend and gradually move east into the Great Basin. This will increase onshore flow for our area on Friday and into Saturday, with breezy southerly winds across the area and slightly increased moisture profiles. There is a slight chance (10-20%) for light showers and isolated mountain thunderstorms on Saturday, primarily in the Burney Basin, southern Cascades, and far northern Sierra. As trough departs, potential for a north wind event increases for Sunday into Monday. There is still some uncertainty in ensemble solutions with timing, strength, and exact path of the trough, but there is some potential for elevated fire weather conditions on Sunday and into Monday. Check back in for updates to the forecast as the weekend gets closer! && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period. Winds 6 to 12 kts in the Valley through 06Z Thursday before becoming light and variable overnight, outside of winds through the Delta and Sacramento sites which will have gusts up to 15-25 kts through 12Z in Sacramento and through the forecast period for the Delta. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

654 FXUS65 KMSO 250817 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 217 AM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Another round of thunderstorms for western Montana today. - A cold front Friday will bring more storms, and a big cool down for the weekend. - Wet weekend and start to early next week. - Potential for mountain snow and an all around hypothermia risk in the mountains this weekend and early next week. An upper level shortwave over the area is supporting thunderstorms and showers across northwest Montana this morning. For most of the morning, these storms should stay around Libby, Kalispell, and areas north of there. But as the sun comes up this morning and destabilizes the atmosphere, we can expect an early start to convection by noon across much of western Montana, especially along Interstate-90 and areas north. Storms are not expected to be severe, and will mostly produce heavy rain. Tomorrow, a cold front will sweep across the region causing a drastic change in the weather pattern. It will start with thunderstorms, but behind the front the snow levels will fall and we can expect to see some snow falling by Sunday morning in the Anaconda-Pintlar, Sapphire, and Bitterroot mountains as well as along the Continental Divide. The upper level low and cold air will mainly be centered south of the region, so the lowest snow levels are actually expected south of Interstate-90. This system will move slowly, and last through the weekend causing a lot of rain, with many locations south of a line from Missoula to Helena having a 70-90 percent chance of picking up 1 inch or more of rain by Sunday morning. In central Idaho, areas east of Grangeville and south of Highway-12 will be the hardest hit, especially along the Salmon River corridor. All of these areas should be on the lookout for rapidly rising small streams and rivers. If you`re out recreating on any small streams and rivers, be prepared for rapidly changing flows and much cooler temperatures. If you`ll be out in the back country in the mountains, conditions this weekend will favor hypothermia if you`re unable to stay dry. Sunday into Monday especially have potential wet, heavy snow above 6,000 ft. By Monday the upper level low starts to move faster, but is forecast to move directly over western Montana. This is when Northwest Montana will see their heaviest precipitation with this system. Though Glacier National Park will start to see more austere conditions by Saturday, late Sunday into Tuesday will be the toughest conditions up there. && .AVIATION...Isolated thunderstorms will continue this morning across northwest Montana, potentially impacting terminal KGPI even in the early morning hours. By 25/18Z convection will initiate along Interstate-90 and areas north and east. A few ensemble members also show some isolated cells in central Idaho affecting Grangeville after 25/20Z. The most likely terminals to be affected by thunderstorms are KGPI and KBTM, with KMSO being in the area where they form but are not yet mature. Terminals KSMN and KHRF are less likely to be impacted as the upper level feature supporting the storms will have moved farther east. Storms are expected to end early, sometime around 26/00Z due to the upper level shortwave moving out of the region to the east. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

291 FXUS65 KBOI 251215 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 615 AM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and thunderstorms this morning in the central ID mountains. - A significant pattern change arrives Friday as a cool upper level trough pushes a cold front through, bringing widespread showers and cooler temperatures. - Temperatures around 15 to 20 degrees below normal Saturday and Sunday. - Significant precipitation and light snow above 7000 feet possible Saturday through Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Saturday Night/... Issued 419 AM MDT THU JUN 25 2026 A weak shortwave is moving over the area this morning with isolated showers extending from the Owyhee Mountains to the Boise Mountains this morning. Showers may produce brief gusty winds this morning. These showers will move east by mid morning with partial clearing and another warm day this afternoon. The upper level trough off the Pacific NW coast will bring increased clouds late this afternoon and evening. Generally cloudy skies with virga and gusty winds this evening as it takes some time to moisten up the lower levels of the atmosphere. Showers become widespread on Friday morning in eastern OR and spread across southwest ID by midday. Then partial clearing expected Friday afternoon as cooler air aloft moves overhead. This will lead to unstable conditions with scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. Showers continue into Saturday with isolated thunderstorms. Breezy northwest winds continue behind the cold front. Temperatures lower to around 15 to 20 degrees below normal Saturday. Significant precipitation possible with this system, but will be showery in nature, and depending on where the track of the system goes. As it stands right now, precipitation amounts of up to 1 to 1.25 inch possible over the central ID mountains, with lesser amounts in eastern OR, where 0.25-0.5 inch expected. Snake Plain will generally see 0.25 to 0.5 inch. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/... Issued 419 AM MDT THU JUN 25 2026 Cool and showery conditions continue Sunday with a slight chance of thunderstorms as the trough slowly moves overhead and northeast. Temperatures remain around 15 to 20 degrees below normal Sunday. Light snow possible on the peaks above 7000 feet Sunday morning. Conditions dry out with breezy and continued cool conditions on Monday. Models are now trending toward keeping unsettled conditions through Wednesday, with a weak shortwave moving over northeast OR on Tuesday, and showers favoring the mountains. Below normal temperatures expected through Wednesday but temperatures slowly warm to near normal by Thursday as conditions dry out. && .AVIATION /12Z Thursday through Friday/... Issued 615 AM MDT THU JUN 25 2026 VFR. Isolated virga/light rain showers with isolated thunderstorms through midday, mainly east of KBOI and north of KJER. Increasing clouds with virga and showers developing late, with a cold front approaching from the west. Surface winds: variable 10kt this morning becoming SW-NW 10-20 kt during the afternoon, and NW 10-20kt tonight. Gusty winds with virga and onset of showers late. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-SW 10-20kt. KBOI...VFR. Showers developing Fri morning. Surface winds: W-NW 5-15kt, gusty with virga and showers Fri morning. Weekend Outlook...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. Mountains obscured. Snow levels lowering to 6500-7500ft Sunday morning. Breezy west-northwest surface winds during the afternoons. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....KA SHORT TERM...KA LONG TERM....KA

841 FXUS65 KLKN 250944 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 244 AM PDT Thu Jun 25 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon across eastern Elko county, White Pine county and NE Nye county * Critical fire weather conditions are possible Friday across Central and NE Nevada due to gusty winds and low humidity * Strong wind gusts are expected throughout Northern and Central Nevada Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening * Much cooler this weekend * A Frost Advisory may be required for the valleys of Northern and Central Nevada both Saturday night and Sunday night && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Thursday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The gradual cooling trend continues today as trough energy approaches from the northwest. Most locations will be a degree or two cooler than Wednesday, with highs this afternoon generally in the upper 80s to low 90s. Remnant mid-level moisture along with weak instability will keep a 10 to 20% chance of thunderstorms this afternoon across Eastern Elko County, White Pine County and portions of Northeastern Nye County. Any storms that may develop today would be expected mainly between 11AM and 5PM PDT, with wind gusts of up to 50 mph possible. Less available moisture and weaker instability today should limit precipitation to either pea sized hail or light rain ranging from virga up to possibly a tenth of an inch. Friday the upper level low approaching from the NW will be centered along the BC coastline, with associated trough energy impacting northern and central Nevada. Much of northern NV (north of I-80 and west of Highway 93) can expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms on Friday. Winds across both northern and central NV Friday afternoon will generally be in the 15 to 20 mph range with gusts of 25 to 35 mph. Highs on Friday will be significantly cooler, ranging from 70s across northern NV to 80s across central NV. The upper level low that is projected to be near Vancouver Island on Friday is progged to be centered over eastern Oregon Saturday afternoon, with the associated strong jet across northern and central NV. Breezy to windy conditions are expected Saturday afternoon and evening, with westerly winds of 15 to 30 mph gusting 40 to 55 mph. Slightly stronger winds across higher terrain. Saturday night into Sunday the upper level low shifts slightly east, centering over the Intermountain West and Great Basin region. Much cooler Saturday night through Sunday night. Lows each night are expected to dip into the low to mid 30s for most valley locations, with highs Sunday in the 60s. Warmer early next week, though still below normal. Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected by Thursday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Deviated from NBM guidance with respect to thunderstorm chances this afternoon, increasing the dry thunderstorm probabilities in order to get isolated dry thunderstorms across Eastern Elko County as well as most of White Pine County and portions of NE Nye County. Moderate confidence in dry thunderstorms this afternoon, highest along the Utah border and near Great Basin National Park. High confidence in increasing winds over the coming days. High confidence in a cooling trend, with moderate confidence in lows Saturday night and Sunday night reaching into the 30s. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected at all TAF locations today and tonight. West to SW winds of 10 to 15 knots and gusts of 20 to 25 knots are expected across the region this afternoon into the early evening hours. The other primary concern this afternoon will be a 10-20% chance of thunderstorms across eastern NV, including KEKO, KENV and KELY. At this time confidence of any TS activity over or in the vicinity of these terminals is too low to add to the TAFs. As for KWMC, KBAM and KTPH, thunderstorm chances this afternoon are less than 5%. && .FIRE WEATHER...Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible (10-20%) this afternoon across zones 470, 425 and eastern portions of 426, mainly between 11AM and 5PM. Zones 469 and eastern portions of 427 will have a 5 to 10% chance of dry thunderstorms this afternoon. West to southwest winds of 12 to 17 mph and gusts of 20 to 30 mph are expected across the region this afternoon, with minimum relative humidities in the 5-15% range in most valley locations, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions. A storm system approaches Nevada from the Pacific NW later this week which will result in stronger winds across all fire weather zones Friday into the weekend. Strongest winds are still expected on Saturday. The approaching system will however give a boost to the RHs, especially across northern NV fire weather zones. For now the Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for Friday afternoon and evening for all zones except 437. Latest guidance suggests RHs Friday will be above critical levels for zones 438, as well as most of zones 469 and 424. If this trend continues the main concerns on Friday will be limited to zones 470, 425, 426 and 427. As for Saturday, strong winds everywhere with westerly winds of 15 to 30 mph gusting 40 to 55 mph, however the low afternoon RHs currently look to be limited to zones 425, 426 and 427. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for NVZ 424, 425, 426, 427, 438, 469, and 470 && $$ DISCUSSION...96 AVIATION...96 FIRE WEATHER...96