401 FXUS66 KSEW 190438 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 938 PM PDT Thu Jun 18 2026 .SYNOPSIS... The pattern remains very dry across western Washington for the next seven days. A weak ridge will pass overhead on Friday with slightly warmer temperatures. A weak trough will follow on Saturday, with slightly cooler temperatures. A larger ridge offshore will amplify over the weekend, and move over western Washington early next week. Highs in the 80s and 90s with moderate HeatRisk remains likely, with elevated fire weather concerns due to dry relative humidity values. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... It`s a near crystal clear afternoon across western Washington on the satellite, with just a couple cirrus clouds. The synoptic picture remains relatively the same from the past few days, with a large jet streak/stream over the northern United States under an upper low in Manitoba/Ontario. Washington remains on the right entry region of the jet stream, so in turn the weather pattern remains dry with the sinking motion associated with this region of the jet. Highs for Thursday remain on track to climb into the 70s, with a few 80s in the south interior. Winds remain out of the north at around 5 to 10 mph with a few gusts up to 20 mph this afternoon in Puget Sound. Lows tonight will drop into the mid 50s. A weak ridge will pass overhead on Friday, with a slight warmup from Thursday. Highs will still range in the 70s and 80s, with a few more 80s in Puget Sound/slopes of the Cascades. While HeatRisk will largely remain minor for the region, a few areas in metro Seattle away from the water (particularly from Bellevue to Tacoma and down to Olympia) will have a 60-80% risk of seeing isolated areas of moderate HeatRisk. A trough will pass to the north late Friday into Saturday. This trough will pass through dry, although cloud coverage will increase overnight Friday into Saturday, and also result in overnight temperatures in the mid 50s. The clouds Saturday morning will cool the high temperatures, with highs in the 60s and 70s. Expect winds to turn to the southwest with a few gusts up to 25 mph in the south interior during the overnight period. The Cascades Crest also has the potential for a few gusts from the west up to 20 mph. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Ensembles are locked in on a ridge amplifying offshore the Washington coastline Sunday, as it gets sandwiched in between two upper level lows in the Gulf of Alaska, and far northern Alberta. This ridge will shift inland on Monday, and move out of the area on Tuesday. A thermal trough is also expected to build along the coast Sunday, shifting inland Tuesday into Wednesday. This pattern is quite similar to the couple warm days previously seen the past Sunday and Monday across the state. As such, a brief warm spell is in the forecast in this period, with temperatures peaking on Monday and Tuesday. There remains somewhat of a temperature spread, but mean highs have temperatures peaking into the 80s and 90s, with the warmest temperatures in Puget Sound areas away from the water, through the Chehalis Valley and southwest interior. A couple instances of 100 can`t be ruled out either for areas west of Olympia. Overnight temperatures again will be warmest in the Seattle metro, with temperatures only dropping into the low 60s (everywhere else will likely see mid and upper 50s). HeatRisk on Monday and Tuesday will likely be moderate for those in lowland or mountain valley areas, with Seattle southward through Tacoma/Olympia having a 20-30% chance of major HeatRisk. Due to dry relative humidity values with the light offshore pattern, low relative humidity values will produce elevated fire concerns (see fire discussion below). There are some model discrepancies as to how quickly the region cools off as the ridge moves inland. The immediate Washington coast will see quick relief with the return of onshore flow, but the interior may take an extra day to cool off, as there is a descent spread in the high temperatures on Wednesday. If the high temperatures remain in the mid 80s in the interior, the Seattle metro may see another day of solid moderate HeatRisk. The temperatures continue to cool into Thursday, with HeatRisk reducing to minor, and most areas out of the 80s, and into the 70s. HPR && .AVIATION... Northwest flow aloft with VFR conditions under mostly clear skies across Western Washington this evening. Winds turn to the northeast overnight and ease. IFR probabilities remain highest along the immediate Washington coastline and south Cascades Friday morning with probabilities for ceilings elsewhere remaining very low. Any low ceilings will dissipate by around 18Z, for VFR regionwide Friday. Winds will turn northwest again Friday afternoon and evening at 6 to 12 kt, with a few potential gusts to 20 kt in the Puget Sound. KSEA...VFR through the TAF period. Winds turn northeast around 5 kt overnight, but winds Friday afternoon out of the northwest 8-12 kt gusting to 20 kt. && .MARINE... High pressure remains centered offshore over the Pacific. Strong northwest flow continues in the outer coastal waters, with a trough moving into southern B.C. Friday behind a weak ridge. Winds and seas in the inner coastal waters have dropped during the day (based on buoy observations). The latest small craft advisory update for the inner coastal waters cancels the inner coastal zone, with the segment for the outer coastal zones continuing through Friday night. Winds up to 20 to 30 kt, and seas of 9 to 12 ft remain likely in the outer coastal waters through Saturday, as the larger ridge offshore begins to amplify and move inland. A thermal trough will also build along the coastline, resulting in weak north to offshore flow going into early next week. Once the ridge and thermal trough move inland, onshore to northwest flow will return with stronger winds for the outer coastal waters, and the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Seas will continue to drop from 8 to 11 ft today to 6 to 8 ft Saturday, and 4 to 6 ft Sunday through Tuesday before building to 6 to 8 ft briefly Tuesday. HPR && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated fire weather concerns remain for Friday and again Monday and Tuesday with minimum relative humidity values dropping into the 30s. In some locations Monday and Tuesday, minimum RH values will be as low as the 20s and teens. Fuels will continue to dry and the atmosphere may become conditionally unstable with the surface thermal trough Monday and Tuesday. Even though the fuels have not reached critical levels, fine fuels like grass and brush will ignite quickly with it being so dry. Felton/HPR && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Saturday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm. && $$

855 FXUS66 KPQR 190434 AAB AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 934 PM PDT Thu Jun 18 2026 Updated aviation discussion. .SYNOPSIS...Warmer than normal and dry conditions expected to continue through the middle of next week. Confidence is increasing that hot temperatures peaking Monday and Tuesday will support Moderate to Major HeatRisk, however there remains uncertainty in the temperature forecast at this time. && .DISCUSSION...Tonight through Wednesday...There has been very little change in the forecast since the last package. An upper- level ridge axis currently centered over the northeastern Pacific will shift eastward and inland through Saturday bringing warmer temperatures with a typical summertime northerly wind pattern. Temperatures peak on Friday for inland locations as troughing aloft supports a return to stronger onshore flow Friday into Saturday. As daytime highs reach to near 70 degrees on the coast and 80s to near 90 degrees on Friday, this will result in Minor HeatRisk for most areas within our CWA and locally Moderate HeatRisk from Salem, OR northward towards Kelso/Longview, WA and across the greater Portland/Vancouver Metro area. Aforementioned troughing and onshore flow will yield cooler temperatures near 60 degrees for Friday along the coast, with persistent onshore flow will help to cool inland locations down, which will bring daytime highs into the upper 70s to low 80s on Saturday. Ensemble guidance remains in good agreement that renewed ridging will develop from Sunday into early next week, raising the chances for another period of hot temperatures for the start of next week with the warmest days looking to be Monday and Tuesday. Uncertainty in the position and amplitude of the ridge axis remain, leading to uncertainty in the temperature forecast, but given the model consensus, there is 85-95% probability for daytime highs to exceed 90 degrees F throughout inland valleys Monday and Tuesday. The chances to exceed 95 degrees similarly peak at generally around 40-85% chance Monday and Tuesday, while the chances to reach 100 degrees reach 25-40% only from Salem, OR north to Vancouver, WA on Monday and 20-40% from Corvallis, OR north to Kelso/Longview, WA. These daytime temperatures combined with overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s support widespread Moderate HeatRisk inland both Monday and Tuesday, with the coverage of Major HeatRisk largely dependent on the occurrence of overnight low temperatures falling into the mid 60s. Looking beyond, towards the middle of next week. Long-range guidance is favoring a cooling trend beginning Tuesday night and continuing into later next week, but there`s still a 30-50% chance for temperatures above 90 degrees to persist on Wednesday. It should also be noted that there are no strong signals for any precipitation through the entire forecast. -42/03 && .AVIATION...Dry with widespread VFR conditions over the next 24 hours. Northerly winds transition to the west-northwest after 10Z Fri. Clouds will be minimal inland, but along the coast, the addition of westerly flow will cause CIGs to drop to MVFR levels. Chances for IFR conditions have increased to around 60% after 11Z Fri. Given the persistent pattern with less wind than previous days, there is very little to mix out the cloud cover. Therefore, expecting at least MVFR CIGs to persist through the forecast from KTMK south. Around KAST, there will be periods of reduced CIGs, but will not be as persistent. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR with northerly winds. Diurnally driven northwesterly afternoon winds after 21Z Fri. -27 && .MARINE... High pressure offshore will maintain a summertime pattern through the remainder of the week. Diurnally driven northerlies are expected to peak each afternoon and evening through at least Friday but there will be a slightly more westerly wind pattern in the inner waters. Winds are expected to peak each afternoon and evening with gusts to 25-30 kts, decreasing a bit in the late overnight to morning hours. Winds will likely ease over the weekend as high pressure weakens and low pressure moves into northwest WA, turning winds more northwesterly on Saturday. Seas around 9 to 11 ft at 9-10 seconds persists into early Saturday as a fresh northwesterly swell persists across the coastal waters. For those traveling across the Columbia River Bar, strong ebbs are expected around sunrise Friday morning. Seas are expected to subside later Saturday into Sunday. -27/03 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 10 AM PDT Friday for PZZ210. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ251>253. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ271>273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

704 FXUS66 KMFR 190621 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1121 PM PDT Thu Jun 18 2026 ...Updated the Aviation and Marine Sections... .AVIATION...19/06Z TAFs...LIFR stratus is expected at the coast overnight through Friday morning, with some slight improvement to IFR and patchy breaks likely during the afternoon and early evening. A return of thicker, more widespread stratus, with a mix of IFR/LIFR is expected Friday night into Saturday morning. Inland, VFR will persist but isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected during Friday afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms will be focused upon northern California and south central Oregon, including Yreka/Montague, Mt. Shasta City, Klamath Falls, Lakeview, and Alturas. But, a few cells may also develop in Jackson and Josephine counties, including Ashland. Though with diminished coverage, nocturnal thunderstorms are possible Friday night, mainly east of the Cascades. && .MARINE...Updated 800 PM PDT Thursday, June 18, 2026...Overnight into early Friday morning, winds will diminish. But, fresh swell will continue very steep seas south of Coos Bay and beyond 20 nm from shore, while all other waters remain steep. For Friday morning through Saturday morning, fresh swell dominated seas and weak winds will result in steep seas in the outer waters. On Saturday afternoon, a thermal trough pattern starts to develop, bringing gusty northerly winds south of Cape Blanco. Steep seas are likely to move into the inner waters south of Cape Blanco on Saturday evening. Very steep and hazardous seas may be present south of Gold Beach by Sunday afternoon. Long-term guidance suggests the thermal trough will stay in place next week, with an increase winds for Tuesday into Thursday (including gales possible south of Gold Beach). && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 243 PM PDT Thu Jun 18 2026/ DISCUSSION... Mid level clouds have slowed down surface heating this afternoon as observed temperatures are roughly 10 degrees cooler than the hourly temperature forecast in some locations. In addition, some cumulus build ups are starting to form in southern Siskiyou County as the atmosphere begins to destabilize. We still have isolated thunderstorms in the forecast for Siskiyou and Modoc County this afternoon. Any storms that develop should be weak and fairly brief given the lack of convective available potential energy(CAPE) and shear. Temperatures trend a little cooler tonight into Friday as a upper level low approaches the California coastline. Models are starting to initiate thunderstorm development in the morning hours around Siskiyou and Modoc Counties based on high resolution ensemble forecast(HREF) data. CAPE profiles are very slim with very elevated moisture. So we`re thinking the chance of storms is quite low during the morning hours. In any case, the threat of storms will increase into the day with surface heating and increasing mid level moisture. Severe storms are unlikely, although some shear profiles will be supportive of some stronger and longer lasting storms. By Saturday, the axis of the 500 mb trough will be pushing into the coastline with some embedded energy moving into eastern Oregon in the afternoon hours. The threat of isolated thunderstorms and perhaps some showers will still linger for Lake County on Saturday afternoon. The NBM is also predicting a 15% chance of precipitation around Mount Shasta City. In any case, thunderstorms and lightning activity should be limited Saturday afternoon. The flow pattern becomes more zonal for the start of next week as temperatures begin to warm. A thermal trough will likely develop west of the Cascades by Sunday night into Monday and persist into Tuesday. High temperatures in Medford will approach the 100 degree mark on both Monday and Tuesday. Heat risk becomes elevated/moderate during these days as low temperatures cool into the lower 60`s. As a reminder, moderate heat risk affects those who are sensitive to heat, especially those without cooling. On a side note, the extreme forecast index(EFI) is showing values around 0.7-0.85 for maximum temperatures through Thursday west of the Cascades. These values suggest the ensembles are forecasting unusually warm temperatures for this time of year, yet by no means extreme. Conditions will begin to cool down by Thursday and Friday. -Smith FIRE WEATHER...Updated 300 PM PDT Thursday, June 18, 2026... Thunderstorms are the main fire weather threat through the next 48 hours. We`ll probably see some isolated thunderstorms today in northern California. Thunderstorms will become scattered on Friday as some mid level moisture arrives throughout the day. We have high confidence that the storm mode will be a mix of wet and dry storms. Based on past experiences, storms could definitely be drier than what we`ll see on Friday. However, abundant lightning on dry fuels is exactly what we`ll see and it should be spread out over northern California and locations east of the Cascades. Storm motion should be to the north to northeast around 20 mph, so not super fast storms. precipitable water(PWATS) are also around 0.7 to 0.9 depending on the model you look at, so enough moisture to get storms going, yet not really wet thunderstorms. Overall, we issued a red flag warning for our northern California Zones and Oregon zones east of the Cascades. A few storms could occur outside of our warning areas, although the majority of lightning should be within the red flag areas. Lastly, it will become hot and dry the start of next week. Some holdovers will likely pop up once a thermal trough settles west of the Cascades. -Smith && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Red Flag Warning from 8 AM to 7 PM PDT Friday for ORZ621. Red Flag Warning from 1 PM Friday to 1 AM PDT Saturday for ORZ624-625. CA...Red Flag Warning from 8 AM to 7 PM PDT Friday for CAZ280-281-284- 285. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ370-376. && $$

054 FXUS66 KEKA 190715 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 1215 AM PDT Fri Jun 19 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will continue to cool today with marine influence deepening and pushing inland. Scattered dry thunderstorms will impact high terrain locations over the interior Friday. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures ease through Saturday with only minor HeatRisk - Slight chance of dry thunderstorms over higher terrain of northern Humboldt and Trinity counties this morning. - A lifting but persistent marine layer at the coast. - Warming trend returns next week. && .DISCUSSION...An upper level trough approaching the area will continue to bring cooler and more moist conditions Friday and Saturday. Most interior valleys are expected to have highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s with the hottest valley locations barely getting over 90. Increasing marine influence will also keep RH higher (over 30 for driest valleys). The trough will cross inland today and bring more cloud cover to the region. The trough will also help increase upper level instability. Combined with a moisture surge up the Sacramento Valley, there is potential for thunderstorms as early as sunrise this morning. High resolution models show a weak convective signature, but chances of actual lightning remain low to moderate at best (15%). Models generally focus convection over northern Humboldt and Trinity counties though just a few want to put storms as far south and west as the King Range. Uncertainty remains high, as many model soundings show moisture too high in the unstable layer with weak forcing, making lightning potential questionable. That said, these setups are typically not well resolved by models. In general, potential for thunderstorms is generally 20 to 30 percent, with the highest potentials for Trinity County (particularly the NE portion of the county). Otherwise cool conditions will bottom out on Saturday with gradual warming and non-impactful weather next week. Temperatures are anticipated to return to the 90s with only moderate HeatRisk expected. /JHW && .AVIATION...A persistent marine layer continues to blanket the coast early this morning causing LIFR/IFR conditions. Approaching instability from an upper level trough continues to deepen the coastal stratus. Another intrusion of low ceilings into the Russian River Valley are expected this morning. Increasing instability will most likely help further lift ceilings today. /JHW && .MARINE...Winds have generally dropped to gentle or even calm across all waters. Moderately steep short period seas are gradually falling and will generally fall below 6 feet Friday morning. Beyond the wind waves, there is a minor but persistent mid period northwest swell around 4 feet that may be more obvious with the calmer seas. North winds will gradually increase again this weekend with near gale force gusts in the outer waters by Sunday afternoon. These winds will pull closer to shore brining steep short period seas to all waters through early next week. /JHW && .FIRE WEATHER... && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Red Flag Warning from 8 AM this morning to 7 PM PDT this evening for CAZ403-406-409-410. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT early this morning for PZZ470. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

041 FXUS66 KMTR 190828 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 128 AM PDT Fri Jun 19 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 112 PM PDT Thu Jun 18 2026 - Hazardous beach conditions with increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents continue through the extended forecast - Minor HeatRisk through the end of the week with below normal temperatures expected this weekend - Temperatures warm and Moderate HeatRisk concerns return by midweek across the interior && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1245 AM PDT Fri Jun 19 2026 (Today and tonight) Stratus is filling back in once again early this morning as a marine layer around 2500 feet deep resides over the area. Additionally, satellite reveals scattered mid to high clouds developing over the North Bay as an upper trough approaching the coast taps into weak elevated instability. This will bring a very low (generally less than a 5% chance) threat of showers and thunderstorms, primarily to northern Napa and Sonoma counties. While thunderstorms are unlikely, the trough will aid drizzle development along the coast this morning. Despite light amounts, any drizzle could make roadways slick. The trough, deep marine layer, and onshore winds will continue the cooling trend today. Highs near the coast will range from the upper 50s to around 70 degrees, with highs inland reaching the 70s to low 80s. These values are near to slightly below normal along the coast, but 5-15 degrees below normal inland. Clouds should recede this afternoon, but may hang on along the coast as moderate to strong onshore flow interacts with terrain. Winds this afternoon and evening will be breezy, especially through gaps/passes in terrain and near Monterey and San Francisco Bays where gusts 20-30 mph are possible. Tonight, expect stratus to redevelop within the marine layer with areas of drizzle along the coast. The long-period southerly swell will continue to bring a risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents, with a Beach Hazards Statement out through late Saturday night. See the BEACHES section for more information, but the main takeaway is to never turn your back to the ocean! && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1245 AM PDT Fri Jun 19 2026 (Saturday through Thursday) Temperatures will remain below normal on Saturday as a trough lingers along the coast. Coastal drizzle is also possible within the marine layer Saturday morning. By Sunday, the trough will start to weaken and the marine layer should begin to compress. This will begin a warming trend, especially inland, where highs will reach the mid 70s to upper 80s, and even a few readings around 90 degrees in the warmest locations. The warming trend will continue early next week as a ridge builds across the western U.S. Confidence is high in hotter inland temperatures, with highs in the 80s and 90s becoming common Tuesday through Thursday and an increased concern for Moderate HeatRisk. Near the coast, confidence in the temperature forecast is low to moderate, but some warming is expected. More significant warming would likely be tied to a weaker onshore or even offshore wind pattern, which is low confidence at this time. The warming trend is definitely worth keeping an eye on and is a reminder that, despite our currently below normal temperatures, impacts from heat will become more likely next week. Finally, by Wednesday and Thursday, a minority of ensemble guidance indicates a plume of elevated instability rotating around the upper level ridge (centered over the Desert Southwest) and across the Central Coast and Bay Area. While confidence in this pattern is very low (currently around a 10% chance of occurrence), it bears monitoring as thunderstorms would be possible in this scenario. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 935 PM PDT Thu Jun 18 2026 Breezy winds easing this evening though still persistent through the night into the day on Friday. Low clouds continue to fill much of the area terminals. MVFR will remain in place through tonight into the morning hours with slow clearing expected 16-20Z for areas closer to the coast. Confidence in marine layer depth and inland spread is moderate to high and should be similar to what was observed earlier this morning, potentially slightly deeper. Vicinity of SFO...Breezy southwest winds subsiding after 08Z. The marine layer will begin to move back inland, with MVFR cigs around 1500-1700ft likely reaching the terminal by around 07-08Z with moderate confidence on timing and cig heights. Conditions will improve again after sunrise, with cigs forecast to erode by 16-18Z Fri. SFO Bridge Approach...Lingering clouds over the bay may continue to reduce visibility overnight. Otherwise, conditions should be similar to SFO. Vicinity of SJC and OAK...Low clouds near 1500ft will move into OAK over the next couple of hours with lower confidence in cigs near 2000ft reaching SJC in the 11-15z time frame. Typical diurnal winds expected on Friday. Monterey Bay Terminals...Marine stratus will continue to fill in over the region with cigs near 1000-1500ft overnight into Friday. morning. Moderate confidence in clearing time on Friday near 19-20Z Fri. && .MARINE... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 849 PM PDT Thu Jun 18 2026 Fresh to strong winds have been gradually weakening and will continue into the night. Fresh to strong winds will return Friday afternoon and early evening leading to hazardous conditions for small crafts in the San Pablo Bay, San Francisco Bay, Suisun Bay and Monterey Bay. Expect slight to moderate chop along with the increasing afternoon winds each day. Southwesterly swell with light to moderate seas will continue into the weekend, with moderate west to southwest winds across the outer waters. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1245 AM PDT Fri Jun 19 2026 Long period southerly swell at around 15 to 17 seconds will persist through early Sunday as energetic storms in the Southern Hemisphere continue to affect the California coast, especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. A Beach Hazards Statement for Pacific Coast beaches continues through late Saturday night. Be sure to check beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean! && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late Saturday night for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Friday for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tangen LONG TERM....Tangen AVIATION...Roser MARINE...Malarkey Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

769 FXUS66 KOTX 190847 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 147 AM PDT Fri Jun 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm temperatures and dry conditions continue. Tuesday and Wednesday next week will be our warmest days over the next week with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. - A cold front will bring dry and breezy to windy conditions on Saturday, particularly over central Washington with critical fire weather conditions possible. && .SYNOPSIS... Today will be warm and dry. A cold front will then brush across the region on Saturday and bring breezy to gusty winds across central Washington and a return for increased fire weather concerns. Little to no precipitation is expected through the middle of next week. Warm temperatures and dry conditions continue into next week. && .DISCUSSION... HOT, DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SATURDAY... Today through Sunday: Friday will be another warm dry day similar to Thursday. Highs will be in the 80s to low 90s. HeatRisk will range from minor to moderate across the Basin and through the Okanogan Valley. Overnight lows will be in the 50s to low 60s. A Low is expected to slide down the BC coastline through the day and overnight. It will move through the Southern BC on Saturday. Ensembles have decent agreement on the timing and track of the Low. It will swing a dry cold front through the region. It will bring another period of gusty winds. Highest winds will be through the Okanogan Valley and the western Columbia Basin including Wenatchee and Moses Lake. These areas have probabilities of 50-70 percent for sustained winds above 20 mph and gusts above 35 mph. Minimum humidity will be in the teens to low 20 percent. These conditions are leading to heightened fire weather concerns for Saturday. The front will bring slightly cooler temps for Saturday and Sunday with highs a few degrees cooler than Friday. The only chance for precip for the region will be on Sunday and over the extreme North Idaho Panhandle. A trace to couple of hundredths are only expected. HeatRisk will be mainly minor through the weekend. Monday through Friday: For the start of next week, models are in fairly decent agreement of high pressure ridge leading to a stable warm, dry pattern. Temperatures climb back into the upper 80s and 90s. Wednesday has breezy winds through the Cascade Gaps as a thermal trough sets up along the Cascades. Toward the end of the week, models start to diverge. The deterministic GFS brings a low with increased precip chances late Wednesday into the Thursday. The EC keeps the ridge in place. Ensemble clusters do show the ridge pattern weakening on Thursday with increased precip chances and cooler temperatures for the end of the week. /JDC && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFs: VFR conditions will continue through the period. Winds will be light through the period as stable pattern continues. High clouds will pass through the period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions at all terminals through the forecast period. Low confidence in smoke/haze impacts to KSFF due to the nearby Upriver Fire. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 85 54 86 54 82 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 84 56 84 53 80 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 84 52 80 50 79 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 91 60 89 56 86 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 87 52 84 50 82 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 82 53 82 51 77 50 / 0 0 0 0 10 0 Kellogg 84 54 81 52 77 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 91 58 89 56 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 90 64 86 59 86 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 90 57 86 57 85 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707). ID...None. && $$

396 FXUS66 KPDT 190537 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1037 PM PDT Thu Jun 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Moderate HeatRisk Friday and again Monday through Wednesday - Fire Weather Watches in effect Saturday && .DISCUSSION... Heat and Fire weather risks are the main couple weather setups going forward that may result in impacts over the next week or so across the PDT CWA. Deep subsidence continues into Friday, keeping winds light across the across the region. 850Mb temperatures in the 20 to 22C range will promote mixing of hotter afternoon temperatures reaching into the the mid 90s. HeatRisk is most pronounced Friday and then again Monday and Tuesday. Tuesday is forecast to be the hottest day of the week where lower elevation Columbia Basin areas can easily exceed 100F with overnight lows Monday night and Tuesday night between 65 and 70F. HeatRisk in the Columbia River Gorge and surrounding valleys is approaching Level 3 (red) during this time frame. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... VFR conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours. Skies will range from mostly clear to BKN mid/high cloud. Diurnally and terrain-driven winds are forecast through mid-afternoon Friday, followed by breezy and gusty westerly winds through the Cascade gaps late afternoon and evening. There is a very low (5-10 percent) chance of high-based showers and thunderstorms affecting BDN/RDM Friday afternoon and evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Poor to fair (30 to 60%) RH recoveries overnight into early Friday morning. Higher confidence in critical fire weather probabilities well exceeding 60% across OR700, OR691 and WA690 would favor a Fire Weather Watch for Saturday afternoon and evening. The Eastern Columbia River Gorge will be an area of enhanced dry and breezy winds Friday afternoon. Critical combined RH and wind of 25% and 20 mph winds come in at about 30-40% confidence in the afternoon and evening. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 54 91 59 84 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 59 93 64 86 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 58 95 61 91 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 60 94 59 90 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 57 94 63 86 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 55 90 57 82 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 50 91 51 83 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 52 91 55 83 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 50 94 54 86 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 63 95 63 81 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for WAZ690. OR...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for ORZ691-700. && $$ DISCUSSION...71 AVIATION...86 FIRE WEATHER...71

660 FXUS65 KREV 182101 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 201 PM PDT Thu Jun 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Summer-like heat will maintain widespread moderate to areas of major HeatRisk today. Widespread minor with isolated moderate HeatRisk tomorrow will reflect the cooler, more seasonal temperatures arriving for the weekend. * Thunderstorm activity increasing today and peaking Friday. This will bring impacts to fire, recreation, travel and aviation on both days. * A warming trend resumes for next week, with a return of typical afternoon breezes. && .DISCUSSION... Clouds leftover from last night`s showers and storms demonstrate the existing moisture in mid and upper levels of the atmosphere as the surge of subtropical influence and the upper trough move into the region. Various model guidance shows CAPE fields blossoming across the Sierra and gradually spilling over into the Sierra Front. CAPE fields will start over the terrain, with added orographic influence boasting values ranging 2000-3000 J/kg depending on the guidance and timing. Some solutions represent values spilling to the Sierra Front in the later portion of the afternoon, and remaining into the overnight hours. This suggests elevated instability support for overnight showers and storms to linger into Friday morning. Today`s chances (15-35%) focus on the Sierra for storm initiation with the same potential for lightning. Upper level winds are expected to sweep storms to the north once they grow to an appropriate height to realize the upper jet steering winds. Hazards for today include possible brief heavy rain under storm cores, gusty and erratic outflow winds up to 50-60 mph, frequent lightning and potential for small hail accumulations with stronger storms capable of producing isolated instances of up to 1 inch hail. For outdoor recreation or work, have multiple sources for receiving weather warnings, pay attention to the skies and have plans in place for sheltering should a storm develop overhead or nearby. The trough advances on Friday, bringing another round of similar parameters of CAPE with a slight increase in atmospheric moisture content. If the overnight convection holds into Friday morning, we could start the day with storms over far northwestern Nevada and northeastern California. Another solution keeps the clouds from the overnight convection, that may act as a capping mechanism for instability into Friday morning. Whichever solution, expect cloudy morning skies once again, with a ~5% chance for ongoing showers to linger. As the afternoon heating develops, guidance suggests the cloud field will lift to the northeast, as showers and storms once again initiate along the Sierra. Similar storm motions will steer the storms to the north-northeast, which will introduce the threat to the Basin and Range into the late afternoon. So, similar weather parameters will produce similar hazards on Friday, but these will have more widespread coverage than today`s showers and storms. Shower chances also increase and move slightly northeastward, with a focus on Lassen, Modoc and northern Washoe counties where chances range 40-60%, and an area that includes Reno-Carson City-Minden to the Smith and Mason valleys and out to Fallon and Lovelock, where chances will range 30-80%. Additionally, the potential exists for blowing dust over dry lake beds and desert sinks, such as the Carson Sink or Black Rock Playa, will emerge as strong gusty outflows blow northeast across the Basin and Range. Both days present critical fire weather danger, today more so for a lightning threat, Friday for the widespread lightning threat as well as areas of low relative humidity and gusty winds across Mineral County. See the Red Flag Warnings as well as the Fire Weather section of this discussion. Behind the trough, we will take temperatures back toward seasonal readings, with upper 80s to near 90 across western Nevada valleys and Sierra valleys with upper 70s to low 80s. We also return to typical summer afternoon breezes. The ridging pattern resumes heating next week, sending temperatures back to the upper 90s to near 100 across western Nevada and upper 80s to near 90 for Sierra valleys. HRICH && .AVIATION... * Density altitude concerns continue today at terminals in NE CA and W NV due to afternoon heating. * Showers and storms developing within the region starting around 21-22Z today. The Sierra and Sierra Front have around a 15-35% chance for precipitation today. Storms may contain increased gusty outflow winds up to 55 kts, brief periods of heavy rain and frequent lightning. Terrain obscuration, LLWS and turbulence may also be present near storm cores. MVFR conditions are possible at most TAF sites should a storm develop or pass nearby. Another round of showers and storms is forecast for Friday with increased chances and coverage which expect to bring similar aviation concerns. 078/HRICH && .FIRE WEATHER... Fire weather concerns today and Friday with thunderstorm potential across the region. Antecedent hot and dry conditions with poor overnight recoveries have helped in drying fuels further which also increases fire danger. Storms will move quickly toward the north-northeast once developed, with a mix of wet and dry storm modes. This increases potential for dry lightning strikes outside of wet storm cores as well as dry storms that produce more lightning than moisture. Gusty, erratic outflows of 50-60 mph are possible, increasing the threat of rapid wind direction shifts. An area over Mineral County (US-95 and east) will have a lesser threat of storms, but will retain the Red Flag Warning due to RH around 10-15% and the potential for gusts from gusty outflow winds that could reach up to 60 mph. A Red Flag Warning is in effect today across the Sierra Front from 1 pm to 10 pm. A Red Flag Warning is issued for Friday, see details in the Red Flag Warning product. 078/HRICH && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Red Flag Warning from 8 AM to 11 PM PDT Friday NVZ458. Red Flag Warning until 10 PM PDT this evening NVZ420-421. Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM PDT Friday NVZ420-421. Red Flag Warning from noon to 11 PM PDT Friday NVZ423-429. Heat Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday NVZ004. CA...Red Flag Warning from 8 AM to 11 PM PDT Friday CAZ270-278. && $$

441 FXUS66 KSTO 190414 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 914 PM PDT Thu Jun 18 2026 Evening Update: Confidence has increased in thunderstorm probabilities and coverage for Friday morning through afternoon. Red Flag Warning has been issued for portions of Shasta County for lightning outside the main precipitation core in wet thunderstorms, isolated dry thunderstorms and gusty outflow winds. The rest of the AFD is unchanged, see WWA section at the bottom for updated RFW details. We have also added in shower/thunderstorm chances for Valley, foothills, and mountain areas north of Interstate 80 for this evening into the late night due to observed conditions. For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler and more seasonable weather through Saturday before a return to hot and dry conditions Sunday through next week. - Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated due to the potential for elevated mountain thunderstorms and gusty thunderstorm outflow winds. && .DISCUSSION... Conditions across the area this afternoon show mostly sunny skies with temperatures in the 80s to mid 90s for daytime highs. Warmest temperatures are expected in the northern Sacramento Valley. Upper level pattern has a weak shortwave moving along the California coast and shifting inland through the early part of the weekend. Moisture influx and instability increase as the shortwave moves onshore. HIRES guidance has indicated the potential for isolated thunderstorm activity within the Sierra for this afternoon and evening (along and south of I80), with soundings indicating modest moisture in the low levels along and west of the crest. There is a potential for a few isolated dry thunderstorms mainly in the Sierra and along the crest this afternoon/evening. Probabilities are 20 percent for occurrence as the soundings indicate sufficient moisture content. None the less, this brings the elevated fire weather concerns for today. Chances for continued isolated showers and thunderstorms overnight and into Friday, with coverage increasing along the northern and northeastern section of the forecast area Friday morning. This would include the southern Cascades into portions of the coastal range near Shasta county. As the center of shortwave moves onshore, initiation of thunderstorms start in the southern Cascades and coastal range through Shasta county. Some dry air is noted in the latest HIRES atmospheric soundings showing slight inverted V structures at times. Elevated fire weather concerns are anticipated from isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms during the morning and afternoon hours on Friday. Main threats from the dry thunderstorms would be new fire starts and gusty outflow winds. Uncertainty arises with the coverage of the dry thunderstorms and how much dry air is near the surface through 700mb. As of right now the probabilities of thunderstorms is around 30 percent with the highest in the southern Cascades. This is where the CAMS have picked up the highest chances for initiation of thunderstorms as the short wave moves onshore. Because of the remaining uncertanity in coverage and nature of thunderstorms, we do not anticpated the need for a Red Flag Warning at this time. We will conitnue to monitor the latest trends and if the need arises for the increased messaging for fire weather concerns. Around the mid to late afternoon hours, chances for storms begin to dwindle as the wave moves further east. Concerns for fire weather start to dwindle by the evening and overnight hours. Moving into the weekend and beyond we will start to heat back up into the 90s across the area, with the potential for lower 100s as we move into the new work week. Conditions will start to dry out quickly and RH values begin to drop. Confidence is increasing in the potential for breezy conditions at times next week on top of the drier conditions. We will continue to monitor the fire weather conditions for next week. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds are light and variable, but increase out of the west for the Sacramento sites this afternoon and evening. Sustained winds up to 15kts are possible. Periods of gusts of 20-25kts for Sacramento sites this evening. RDD and RBL will see southerly winds this afternoon and evening, while SCK and MOD see WNW to NW winds. Winds do go light and variable overnight and into tomorrow morning. Otherwise, higher terrain isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 5 AM to 7 PM PDT Friday for Burney Basin- E. Shasta /S. Cascades Above 3000 ft-Shasta County Foothills 1000-3000 ft-Shasta Lake Area & 1-5 1000-3000 ft-Shasta Metro-W. Shasta County 1000-3000 ft-W. Shasta County Above 3000 ft. && $$

963 FXUS65 KMSO 190755 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 155 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Thunderstorms return to Lemhi County Idaho and southwest Montana this weekend. - A warming trend continues through mid-week with generally mild weather ahead. A surge of southwest monsoon moisture currently visible on water vapor satellite imagery in northern California and southern Oregon will work its way into our region this evening. Tomorrow that moisture will interact with a shortwave dropping out of the northwest, and cause some thunderstorms in Lemhi county, ID and southwest Montana. Some of the very sparsely populated wilderness areas in southern Idaho count may be impacted also. The amount of moisture isn`t exceptional, but it will be enough to fuel some thunderstorms and cause cloud to ground lightning. Otherwise, pleasant weather continues to be the norm with a ridge axis over the US West Coast. The weak trough that will trigger some thunderstorms in southwest Montana tomorrow will just cool temperatures a few degrees across the region through Monday. Then the ridge will strengthen again and expand eastward. That will cause a warming and drying trend across most of central Idaho and western Montana, along with lighter winds. High temperatures are expected to peak near 90 degrees in western Montana on Wednesday, which will be one of the hottest days of the year so far. && .AVIATION...The ridge along the US West Coast will continue to keep mild conditions across the region through the next week. The only potential interruption we can see so far is some scattered thunderstorm potential affecting terminals KSMN and KBTM tomorrow (Saturday). && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...&& $$

579 FXUS65 KBOI 190613 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 1213 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Hotter Friday. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms late Friday through Saturday. - Storms late Friday and Friday night could produce strong outflow winds. - Storms Saturday will be wetter with locally heavy rain, especially over higher terrain in Idaho. && .SHORT TERM /Through Sunday Night/... Issued 213 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2026 Friday looks 3-6 degrees hotter than today as a transitory upper ridge passes through the area. A Pacific trough will begin scattered thunderstorms in southeast Oregon early Friday afternoon, Harney County first, then Malheur County. Showers and chance of thunderstorms will advance eastward into Idaho south of the Snake Basin Friday night, then northeastward across remaining Idaho zones Saturday, as southeast Oregon begins to dry out. Initial thunderstorms in Oregon Friday will feature mainly gusty downdraft and outflow winds, with little rain, but storms Friday night and Saturday will trend wetter as they spread into southwest Idaho. Latest models target the Boise Mountains and West central Idaho mountains for heaviest rainfall on Saturday, possibly up to 0.50 inch. Thunderstorms should end by sunset Saturday and showers should end by midnight Saturday night. With clouds and showers around, Friday night will stay mild with lows in the 50s in the mountains to mid 60s in the valleys. But Saturday looks 10-15 degrees cooler than Friday as showers continue and the Pacific upper trough moves through our CWA. && .LONG TERM /Monday through Friday/... Issued 213 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2026 The upper trough will steer out of the region Sunday, keeping the area under northwest flow and seasonal normal temperatures. Monday through the end of the extended period, a ridge of high pressure will build back over the northwest region, leading to a return of dry conditions and a steady warming trend through midweek. Tuesday and Wednesday are still expecting to see temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above normal. Come Thursday, a dry shortwave trough from the Pacific coast will dig across our area. There is considerable guidance uncertainty about this trough, but for now, a potential cooling trend with dry conditions will remain for Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z Friday through Saturday/... Issued 1207 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2026 VFR. Showers and thunderstorms moving north from NV towards the OR/NV and ID/NV borders Friday afternoon/evening. Primary hazards include: thunderstorm outflow gusts 40-50 kts, small hail, and lightning. High density altitude Friday afternoon. Surface winds: light and variable overnight. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-NW 10-20 kt. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: variable under 7 kt. Weekend Outlook...Mostly VFR. Scattered MVFR showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon through Saturday. The stronger storms could produce outflow winds gusts up 40-50 kt, small hail, blowing dust, and brief heavy rain. Highest chances of heavy rain over the central ID mountains on Saturday. Mountain obscuration Saturday morning through late afternoon. Clearing skies Sunday with breezy winds through the Snake Plain. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Red Flag Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon MDT Saturday for IDZ423-426. OR...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM Friday to 5 AM PDT Saturday for ORZ670-672. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....CH SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....JY

850 FXUS65 KLKN 182027 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 127 PM PDT Thu Jun 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Temperatures in the 90s through Friday * Heat Risk continues through Friday afternoon for those sensitive to warm temperatures * Incoming weather system increases chances for thunderstorms and light precipitation Friday, along with cooler weekend temperatures && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Southerly flow aloft this afternoon is bring increasing atmospheric moisture and instability. Confidence is low, still cannot rule out the potential for convective buildups and isolated dry thunderstorms in central Nevada. Better thunderstorm chances are forecast for tomorrow when the upper ridge gives way to a weak upper trough. Precipitable water values around 0.5-0.7 inches and CAPE values 200-400 J/kg in northern Nevada will favor scattered mixed wet and dry thunderstorms. While shower activity remains in the north, central Nevada will experience gusty south winds fueling fire weather concerns. A few showers or thunderstorms linger in far northern Nevada for Saturday but the main story will be cooler temperatures, with highs up to ten degrees lower than those experienced this week. The relief looks short lived however, as upper level ridging returns behind the trough and kicks off another dry and warming period beginning Sunday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Low confidence in isolated thunderstorms in central Nevada today. Moderate confidence in thunderstorms tomorrow but low confidence in specific placement. Moderate confidence in cooler temperatures this weekend and in warming conditions early next week. Thunder potential was increased for today and tomorrow to better reflect the convective environment. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions and light winds expected through the next 24 hours. Clouds will be increasing through the period but are not expected to impact flight categories at this time. && .FIRE WEATHER...Isolated dry thunderstorms remain possible over the central Nevada fire zones through this evening. Activity will increase for tomorrow, with isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms across northern Nevada in zones 424, 437, 438, 469, 470, and northeastern portions of 427, transitioning to mixed wet and dry thunderstorms as the day progresses. At the same time, winds will strengthen in central Nevada over zones 425, 426, and the rest of 427, combining with single digit min RH values to create critical fire weather conditions. Fire weather watches for both events have been upgraded to Red Flag Warnings. Showers and mixed thunderstorms continue in far northern Nevada on Saturday, but cooler temperatures and increased RH values are expected to limit fire weather potential. Dry and warming weather returns on Sunday, with temperatures continuing to rise through early week. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Red Flag Warning from Friday morning through Friday evening NVZ425-426-427. Red Flag Warning from Friday afternoon through Friday evening NVZ424-437-438-469-470. && $$ DISCUSSION...94 AVIATION...94 FIRE WEATHER...94