096 FXUS66 KSEW 310324 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 824 PM PDT Sun Aug 30 2026 .SYNOPSIS... An upper-ridge looks to remain in place to start the week before a well-organized system arrives on Wednesday and lead into Thursday with the potential for widespread rainfall gusty winds. This disturbance will remain in the vicinity through the weekend keeping conditions cool and unsettled. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Latest satellite imagery shows mid to high clouds across Western Washington this evening. Otherwise, conditions are dry and to remain that way as we start the new week. An upper- level ridge is building over the region and remain in place into Monday. For tonight, areas of fog and low clouds are slated to develop. Overnight lows are forecast to bottom out in the mid 40s to mid 50s. As mentioned, dry day on Monday with upper-ridge axis directly overhead in response to an upper-trough digging offshore. Monday may likely be the warmest day of the week as temperatures top out near average. Highs for the interior are to range between the lower 70s to lower 80s. Coastal areas firmly in the 60s. The pattern will begin to turn active on Tuesday as the upper-low associated with the aforementioned upper-trough tacks inland, increasing shower activity across the area. The activity will maintain overnight. Low temperatures are to bottom out in the lower to mid 50s from max temps of 60s and 70s earlier in the day. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Widespread precipitation and gusty winds are favored on Wednesday and Thursday as a well-organized disturbance remains on track to enter the region. NBM 24-hour probabilities of rainfall ending Thursday morning over an 1.00" ranges between 15-30% across the interior while the coast and Olympics have 75-95%. More QPF expected to fall throughout the remainder of the day on Thursday. Although there is uncertainty, the upper- trough may maintain over the region through Sunday. Cool and unsettled conditions trending into the weekend as temperatures measure well-below normal. && .AVIATION... West to northwest winds continue aloft with brief upper level ridging over the area. High clouds will continue to remain overhead overnight. The biggest forecast question will be if patchy fog/low stratus will be able to develop early Monday morning. High clouds should limit its extent, put areas of fog cannot be ruled out at the most prone places including HQM, PWT, OLM, and PAE. Probabilities remain low at LIFR conditions (10-20%). VFR conditions then continue into tomorrow with high clouds. KSEA...VFR conditions this afternoon will continue through the TAF period. High clouds will continue to stream overhead tonight. Fog development is uncertain (around 10% chc), but is more likely to remain outside of the terminal. N wind 5-10 kt. 33/62 && .MARINE... Winds fairly light today as the coastal waters of Washington remain in-between systems. High pressure will briefly nose in on Monday for increasing northwesterly winds. Winds will start to increase once again late Tuesday as a frontal system approaches from the north. The system, which has been delayed slightly in more recent runs, will move through through the middle and latter half of the day with the strongest winds then. The coastal waters (60-80% chc) and the eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca (50-60% chc) will be the most likely places to see gale force gusts, with Small Craft Advisory winds likely elsewhere. Winds will slowly ease Wednesday night into Thursday as the system moves to the south and weakens. Seas remain around 3-6 ft until Wednesday, rising up to around 8-11 ft then as the system moves through. 62 && .FIRE WEATHER... A brief warming and drying trend will occur Monday into Tuesday ahead of the next weather system. Relative humidity minimums in the central and southern Washington Cascades will decrease to around 30 percent tomorrow afternoon. Finer, flashier fuels will be more apt to respond to the dip in RH. More clouds arrive ahead of the stronger system for only partly sunny skies on Tuesday. By late Tuesday night into Wednesday, the stronger system arrives for widespread rain, windy conditions, and slight chances for thunderstorms. 21 && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...None. && $$

027 FXUS66 KPQR 310437 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 937 PM PDT Sun Aug 30 2026 Updated aviation discussion. && .SYNOPSIS...High pressure will result in dry and warm conditions across the area today and Monday. A significant pattern change begins on Tuesday with a return of cooler temperatures, rain, and breezy southerly winds through the end of the week. Wednesday and Thursday are expected to be the wettest days with also a 10-20% chance for thunderstorms. Conditions trend slightly drier over the weekend, but there remains chances for lingering showers. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday Night...Satellite imagery and surface observations as of late Sunday morning depicts mostly sunny skies across the area with some scattered clouds across southwest Washington and far northwest Oregon. Will maintain dry and warm conditions today and Monday as shortwave ridging sets up over the Pacific Northwest. Expect afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s today across interior valleys, and 60s along the coast. Tomorrow will be the warmest day of the week as the ridge reaches its peak amplitude, with highs warming up into the mid 80s across interior valleys. This dry and warm weather will be short-lived as we head into a significant pattern change beginning Tuesday. Monday night into Tuesday, the aforementioned ridge will weaken and get pushed eastward as the first of two upper-level troughs drops down from the Gulf of Alaska. This trough will track towards southern Oregon and northern California, bringing increased cloud cover and a 25-50% chance for light showers. This will support cooler temperatures across interior valleys, with Tuesday afternoon highs falling into the low to mid 70s. Winds will also begin to turn out of the west/southwest, generally remaining light with gusts below 20 mph. An exception would be the Columbia River Gorge and Hood River Valley, where westerly gap winds Tuesday afternoon could gust to 25-35 mph with a 30-50% chance for maximum gusts exceeding 40 mph. -10 .LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday...Wednesday into Thursday will be the more significant soaker days as the majority of ensemble members are showing a second, much deeper upper-level trough dropping down into the Pacific Northwest. The associated surface front swings through on Wednesday, bringing widespread rain, cooler temperatures, and breezy winds from the south. In addition, there will be a 10-20% chance for thunderstorms. Chances for exceeding 1 inch of rain in 48 hours between 5 AM Wednesday to 5 AM Friday are high (70-90%) across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington, with the highest chances along the coast, Coast Range, and Cascades. Chances for exceeding 2 inches during this same timeframe are around 30-50% for these higher terrain features, and 5-15% along the I-5 corridor. Orographic enhancement will play a big role with providing higher rainfall amounts to the mountains. Thursday afternoon to Saturday, the upper-level trough remains over the Pacific Northwest and we transition into a post-frontal environment with lingering showers. Given that there will be cooler air aloft, this will favor increasing atmospheric instability and thus chances for thunderstorms. There will be another 10-20% chance for thunderstorms on Thursday following the initial frontal passage. Any passing thunderstorms may produce lightning, heavy rain, erratic winds, and small hail. Overall, while the upcoming rain will not quite yet be a "fire season ender," it will definitely slow down fire season and help put a damper on ongoing wildfires. -10 && .AVIATION...Through 00z Tuesday...Prevailing VFR conditions expected across NW OR and SW WA through the majority of the TAF period. Light offshore (north to northeast) winds overnight will limit chances for MVFR cigs to 20-30% along the coast and in the Willamette Valley. Winds will generally remain light less than 6 kts through Monday morning. East winds through the central Columbia River Gorge will locally increase to 12-15 kts with gusts up to 20-25 kts through the day Monday. An approaching weather system will slow shift winds back offshore (west to northwest), first along the coast around 18z Mon with northwest winds increasing to 10-14 kts through 03z Tue around and north of KAST. Winds then shift west to northwest inland after 20z Mon to 00z Tue. This onshore shift will also allow for the return of marine stratus to the coast Monday evening with a 60-80% chance of MVFR/IFR cigs returning south of KTMK between 02-06z Tue. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions expected throughout the period, with low chances (10%) of MVFR cigs after 09z Mon. Northwest winds less than 6 kts, turning west after 21-23z. -03 && .MARINE...Transient ridging over the Northeast Pacific will see northerly to northwesterly winds continue into Tuesday morning. Thermal troughing along the coast will yield strengthening near- shore winds Monday afternoon, reaching 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt within 10-20 NM north of Cape Falcon and including the Columbia River Bar, where a Small Craft Advisory has been hoisted from 2 PM to 8 PM PDT Monday afternoon and evening. Largely wind-driven seas will persist at 4-6 ft during this period. On Tuesday, winds back out of the south-southwest as a broad pattern shift sees troughing develop over the Northeast Pacific while ridging moves inland. By Wednesday, a robust frontal system will traverse the coastal waters of OR/WA. Southerly winds ahead of the frontal passage are likely (50-75% chance) to yield at least intermittent gale-force gusts. Sustained winds are less likely (30-60% chance) to reach gale- force, with higher chances generally to the north and closer to shore. Gale Watches may be needed if confidence persists in the duration of potential gusty winds across enough of the coastal waters. These strong winds will also see seas build to 8-12 ft, with chances for significant wave heights to reach 15 ft remaining less than 10%. Behind this system, winds and seas should ease from late in the week into next weekend. -36 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM to 8 PM PDT Monday for PZZ210- 251. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

309 FXUS66 KMFR 302304 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 404 PM PDT Sun Aug 30 2026 .Aviation discussion updated... && .AVIATION...31/00Z TAFs...VFR levels under clear skies persist across northern California and southern Oregon. Gusty north winds along the coast will ease into the evening. MVFR/IFR ceilings are possible along the coast late tonight into early Monday morning, but a slight easterly component to winds may limit ceiling development. Any coastal ceilings that do develop look to clear out before Monday afternoon. Elsewhere, VFR will continue to prevail for at least the next 24 hours. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 302 PM PDT Sun Aug 30 2026/ KEY MESSAGES... * Dry and windy conditions are expected on Monday, bringing critical fire weather concerns to the Scott and Shasta Valleys as well as broad areas east of the Cascades. Other areas may not reach thresholds, but have elevated concerns for similar conditions. * Tuesday marks a transition to active weather expected on Wednesday. A cold front will bring below seasonal temperatures across the area. Rainfall is expected west of the Cascades, with lighter showers possible to the east. * Light scattered showers and cool conditions are expected for Thursday and Friday. DISCUSSION...Zonal flow aloft behind a trough moving off to the northwest will bring summery weather across northern California and southern Oregon today. Coastal cities will see periods of gusty winds this afternoon as well as chances for marine stratus to develop overnight. North-northeast overnight winds may keep the skies clear or reduce development. An upper ridge passing over the area on Monday looks to raise daytime highs about 5 degrees for most Oregon counties. Northern Lake County may see temperatures increase by up to 10 degrees, while Siskiyou and Modoc counties will see smaller fluctuations. In addition to those warm and dry conditions, southerly flow will bring gusty winds into the Scott and Shasta Valleys, northeast Siskiyou County, Modoc County, southeast Klamath County, and southwest Siskiyou Counties. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for these areas as gusty winds and dry conditions reach critical levels. Tuesday will be a transition day ahead of midweek active weather, so forecasting may change as models get a better hold on that change. The overall pattern has not changed; A weak shortwave trough will swing over the area ahead of midweek activity. Temperatures look to cool by 5 to 15 degrees for most areas, depending on the timing and path of that shortwave. This trough may bring some initial activity to western Siskiyou County and along the Cascades. While slight thunderstorm chances (5-15%) remain in the forecast for these areas, CAPE values trending lower and moisture trending marginally upward might mean that some light showers be a part of any thunderstorms that do develop. Those chances do linger into Tuesday night, then ease on early Wednesday morning. On Wednesday, a cold front from an approaching low pressure system will bring cool temperatures and rainfall across areas west of the Cascades as well as some rainfall to the east. The most rainfall is expected over Curry County, with 1.0 to 1.5 inches at lower elevations and over 2 inches possible over terrain. Coos and northern Douglas counties as well as the Illinois Valley could see 0.75 to 1 inch of rainfall. Roseburg and westernmost Siskiyou County could see around 0.5 inches, with 0.25 inches possible in the Rogue Valley and northern Klamath counties. Eastern Siskiyou, southern Klamath, and northern Lake counties may see a few hundreths of an inch. Overall, impactful rainfall is not expected. However, as this is the first substantial rainfall in a while, water accumulation is possible in areas where debris blocks drainage routes. Additionally, oils may rise to road surfaces and bring locally slick conditions. Extra caution while traveling is advised. For Thursday and Friday, the low pressure system lingers to the west just off the Oregon coast and keeps a trough over the area. Cool temperatures will continue through the end of the week. Shower chances linger but decrease to 40-60% on Thursday and 20-40% through Friday. The higher chances tend to stay west of the Cascades, but southwest flow around the trough may help light showers reach Modoc and southern Lake counties late Thursday into Friday morning. Forecasting for next weekend is somewhat erratic, as ensemble members show a variety of outcomes. Meteogram guidance shows light activity continuing through the weekend. Beyond that, rain signals are a minority (10-20% for the ECMWF ensemble, 5-10% for the GFS) and are fairly erratic but are definitely not absent. -TAD && MARINE...Updated 230 PM PDT Sunday, August 30, 2026...Gusty northerly winds and steep seas continue across area water this afternoon. Winds start to ease late tonight and seas fall below advisory levels near sunrise on Monday. An atmospheric pattern change will bring gusty southerly winds and the possibility of light marine showers on Tuesday. Winds and rain peak on Wednesday, with steep to very steep and hazardous seas possible for most area waters. Southerly winds ease on Thursday, but westerly swell may support continuing unsettled seas. -TAD && FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM PDT Sunday, August 30, 2026... A brief, but strong warming and drying trend will continue on Monday. Winds will increase Monday afternoon as a trough approaches from the west. Wind and humidity conditions will reach critical levels in the Scott and Shasta valleys and east of the Cascades due to gusty south to southwest winds and dry humidities. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for portion of FWZ 280 (Scott Valley) and FWZs 281, 284, 285, and 624. On Tuesday, gusty winds will again reach critical levels in that area. But, humidities will be slightly above thresholds as temperatures trend cooler. There will also be chances for light showers and a 5%-15% probability of late of day thunderstorms, especially near the Scott Valley in west-central Siskiyou County, and in far northern Klamath County. A trough dominated pattern will follow for the remainder of the week with a strong cooling trend and increasing chances for rain. Gusty winds, and a wetting rain are likely from the coast to the Cascades, and in northern Klamath County. This will be followed by shower chances Friday into Sunday while slightly warmer temperatures remain below normal. The outlook for day 8-10, early next week, is for warming and drying. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM PDT Monday for ORZ624. CA...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM PDT Monday for CAZ280-281-284- 285. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$

049 FXUS66 KEKA 302223 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 323 PM PDT Sun Aug 30 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Breezy afternoon winds will elevate fire weather concerns for Trinity county Monday afternoon. * Warm temperatures to continue Monday before much cooler temperatures arrive in the area. * Isolated thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. * An early season reason may bring widespread rain to the area Wednesday night and Thursday. && .SYNOPSIS...An approaching upper low will deepen the marine layer Monday. A few showers are possible Tuesday and Tuesday night as this low moves overheard. An early season storm is expected to bring a widespread wetting rain Wednesday afternoon through Thursday, although uncertainty remains on how far south it will make it. && .DISCUSSION...Ridging over the area is bringing warm temperatures to the area today and this will likely be the warmest day for a while in most areas. Tonight and Monday an approaching trough is expected to deepen the marine layer and bring some cooler temperatures to much of the area. This is also expected to bring some increased winds in the afternoon. These will be west to southwest and this will help to increase afternoon RH. For more details see fire weather section. Tuesday is expected to see moisture aloft increasing as the trough cuts off and moves towards the coast. A shortwave rotating around the low may provide enough lift with some instability aloft to produce a thunderstorm or two. These may be fairly dry initially with PWATS around 0.6 or 0.7 inches. Currently the models are showing some convective precip Tuesday evening , but the profiles don`t look very favorable for thunderstorms. So this will need to be monitored. At this coast this may bring some light rain or drizzle. Later Tuesday night some light rain is possible in the interior areas as well. Wednesday it generally looks like there may be a break between this trough and the next on. Wednesday evening and overnight into Thursday the system is expected to bring a wetting rain to much of the area. The models are still struggling with how far south this rain will make it. The NBM is showing over a 60 percent chance of a wetting rain for most areas north of Willits by Thursday afternoon. Most of Humboldt county is showing a 60 percent chance of over a half inch of rain. Farther north in Del Norte county there is a 70 percent chance of over an inch of rain. Some of the models are still showing drier solutions so this will need to be monitored as it gets closer. Late in the week and over the weekend another system moves by to the north, but at this point it looks like any significant precip will remain north of the area. MKK && .AVIATION...Stratus is expected to return this evening or tonight and become fairly widespread towards morning. With the approaching trough we are not expected a lot of low fog, but more just IFR or LIFR CIGs. Monday the stratus may linger at the coast through much of the day, although the CIGS will likely lift to IFR or MVFR. Areas farther inland, including UKI, are expected to remain clear through Monday. MKK && .MARINE...Strong to near gale force winds continue across the waters this afternoon. These are expected to start diminishing tonight near the coast and more broadly on Monday. These are expected to become southerly near the coast. Wind driven waves are around 7 to 10 feet and are expected to diminish tonight and Monday along with the winds. A southerly swell of 2 to 3 feet at 17 seconds continues as well. This will slowly diminish over the next several days. Tuesday an early season weather system starts to approach the area switching winds across the area to southerly. These southerly winds are expected to slowly increase through Wednesday afternoon. Current models showing them peaking around 20 to 25 kt in the northern waters. Some models are showing these southerly winds reach 30 kt Wednesday afternoon. These southerly winds are expected to continue through the week, although for now it looks like they will remain under 15 kt or so. Next weekend northerly winds may return. MKK && .FIRE WEATHER...Hot weather and low RH continue today. Monday an approaching upper level low will enhance and deepen the marine layer. This will cool temperatures slightly across the area with more cooling in the near coastal areas. Tuesday additional cooling is expected. Low level RH is expected to be much higher, only dropping to around 35 to 50 percent in the afternoon. Late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night the upper low moves overhead bringing the potential thunderstorms. There is not much instability so this may end up just being a few light showers or even just some virga. There are some dynamics with the low which could help make use of the instability at higher levels. Still the threat for thunderstorms looks fairly minimal. Wednesday afternoon or evening there is the potential for some widespread wetting rain. At this point there is still quite a bit of uncertainty on how far south it will make it. Probabilities drop off quickly in southern and eastern Lake county. Rainfall amounts over an inch are possible in Del Norte county. Some of the models are are still showing a drier solution with precip only making it into northern Humboldt and northern Trinity counties. MKK && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for PZZ450. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for PZZ455-470. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Monday for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

574 FXUS66 KMTR 310451 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 951 PM PDT Sun Aug 30 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1232 PM PDT Sun Aug 30 2026 - Slight chance for coastal drizzle during the night and morning hours through Tuesday morning - Cooling trend continues through at least midweek && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1232 PM PDT Sun Aug 30 2026 (This evening through Monday night) Stratus has retreated to the coast as of early afternoon with mostly sunny skies across the interior. Thus, temperatures inland temperatures will warm into the 70s to mid 80s and the lower 90s across the far interior. Meanwhile, persistent onshore flow and the marine layer will maintain cooler conditions near the coast, generally reaching into the 60s. The marine layer is likely to deepen overnight to around 2000 feet and with an increased potential for coastal drizzle tonight and into midmorning on Monday. Expecting a slower clearing of stratus Monday morning as troughing off of the Pacific Northwest coast develops and deepens. As such, afternoon maximum temperatures will be 5 to 15 degrees below average. Heading into Monday night, another round of night/morning drizzle is expected along the coast and in the favored upslope regions. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1232 PM PDT Sun Aug 30 2026 (Tuesday through next Saturday) Tuesday is now forecast to be the coolest day of the week with afternoon temperatures some 10 to 20 degrees below normal for this time of year. Temperatures remain below seasonal averages throughout much of next week with the potential for rain particularly across the North Bay late week as a weak frontal boundary sags southward across the region. This is as a cut-off low develops off of the northern California coast Tuesday with troughing persisting through the remainder of the week and potentially into next weekend. Still keeping an eye on the tropical eastern Pacific as it remains fairly active for any moisture that may be brought northward into California. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 950 PM PDT Sun Aug 30 2026 VFR prevails except for nearly continuous stratus and fog/mist /MVFR-IFR/ along the immediate coast from Point Reyes southeastward. The earlier steady erosion on the northwestern edge of stratus has paused while nocturnal radiative cooling is underway; it is dry to very dry above the marine layer. Additional coastal stratus, fog/mist and drizzle will form including an inland intrusion tonight and Monday morning. Conditions improve to MVFR-VFR along the coastline Monday late morning and afternoon. Robust lower level cool air advection will deepen the marine layer especially Monday through Monday night. Stratus and patchy drizzle redevelop Monday night and early Tuesday. Vicinity of SFO...VFR except stratus /MVFR/ ceiling 10z-18z Monday then a stratus ceiling redevelops 04z Monday evening. West wind 8 to 15 knots. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus /MVFR-IFR/ tonight and Monday morning. Tempo light drizzle KMRY 10z-14z, conditions improve to MVFR-VFR late Monday morning. Stratus /MVFR/ returns Monday evening. West to northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 934 PM PDT Sun Aug 30 2026 Fresh northwest winds diminish to a moderate breeze overnight, allowing rough seas to subside to moderate by Monday morning. The long period southerly swell continues to decrease tonight. Northwest to westerly winds remain gentle to moderate through the remainder of the work week as slight to moderate NW seas prevail. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....RGass AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

833 FXUS66 KOTX 302334 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 434 PM PDT Sun Aug 30 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Trending warmer and drier into early next week. Temperatures will be in the 80s Monday and Tuesday. - Active weather returns mid week. Wetter conditions with widely scattered rain showers. There is a 50-70% chance of at least a quarter of an inch of rain Wednesday through Wednesday night in the mountains. - Gusty southerly winds Wednesday afternoon across the Columbia Basin and Okanogan Valley may result in visibility reductions from blowing dust. && .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers will continue over northeast Washington and north Idaho through early Sunday morning. Temperatures remain cool on Sunday before warming back into the 80s for Monday and Tuesday. Active weather returns Tuesday night through the rest of the workweek with widely scattered showers, breezy winds and temperatures cooling back below normal. && .DISCUSSION... Sunday night through Tuesday: An upper-level ridge will build into the Pacific Northwest behind the exiting trough and ahead of the next incoming weather system. Temperatures will trend warmer early in the week, with highs climbing into the upper 70s to upper 80s on Monday. Further warming into the 80s is expected Tuesday as an upper- level trough digs offshore of northern California and Oregon, amplifying the ridge across the northern Rockies with deep southerly flow across the Inland Northwest. Relative humidity values will trend lower, driving a slight rebound in fire danger, though the risk for new fires remains low. Tuesday evening through Thursday: Model guidance remains in good agreement that the offshore upper-level trough will take on a negative tilt as it moves inland, though discrepancies persist regarding track and timing. A faster, more northerly track would bring the strongest synoptic dynamics through the region Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning, introducing shower and thunderstorm chances as early as Tuesday night. A slower, more southerly track would focus most of the dynamics over north Idaho and delay precipitation onset until later Wednesday morning or afternoon. Precipitable water values will climb above 130% of normal, favoring wet thunderstorms. However, lightning strikes outside of the main rain cores will result in risk for new fire starts along with gusty outflow winds. South-southwest wind gusts of 30-40 mph are expected on Wednesday across the western Columbia Basin and Okanogan Valley. Since blowing dust was observed on Saturday (Aug 29) with similar wind gusts we move more into the winter wheat planting season, reduced visibility from blowing dust will be a concern in areas that miss out on rain in the Columbia Basin and Waterville Plateau. A leading shortwave accompanied by an anomalous moisture plume, perhaps a weak atmospheric river, will shift inland Wednesday night into Thursday. Ensemble consensus is strong regarding the presence of this system, though differences remain on the timing of the initial shortwave and the placement of the trailing low as it digs southward. This moisture plume brings a 50% or greater chance of 0.25 inches of rain across the Cascades, far eastern Washington, and the Idaho Panhandle. Probabilities for at least 0.10 inches drop to 40-50% in the immediate lee of the Cascades and central Columbia Basin. Friday through Sunday: Unsettled weather continues Friday into Saturday, though guidance diverges significantly on the evolution of the upper-level low. 59% of ensemble members move the low slowly inland across the Pacific Northwest, keeping temperatures cool with continued precipitation chances. The remaining 41% of ensembles retrograde the low offshore, allowing upper-level ridging to rebuild Saturday into Sunday with a warming trend for the weekend. /vmt && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFs: VFR conditions expected to prevail into Monday. A stratocumulus cloud deck with ceilings above 6 kft AGL will be in place over the northern mountains through the rest of today. These clouds are expected to dissipate through the evening with mostly clear skies developing overnight. Smoke and haze will be present in the Cascades valleys primarily down the Entiat River drainage and Lake Chelan, and north of the Wenatchee Airport (KEAT). Winds will continue to weaken this evening, and expected to be light by Monday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions to continue at TAF sites. A low probability alternate scenario is for some smoke and haze to filter down drainage into KEAT by Monday morning, but little to no chance for visibility to drop below 6SM. /SVH ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 46 83 50 85 53 71 / 0 0 0 0 50 60 Coeur d`Alene 47 83 51 86 53 71 / 0 0 0 0 50 70 Pullman 40 83 48 81 45 69 / 0 0 0 10 50 70 Lewiston 51 88 56 87 58 75 / 0 0 0 10 50 70 Colville 38 80 42 85 44 71 / 0 0 0 0 40 70 Sandpoint 40 79 45 85 48 69 / 0 0 0 0 40 70 Kellogg 43 80 50 86 49 68 / 0 0 0 0 40 80 Moses Lake 48 85 54 85 53 75 / 0 0 0 0 20 30 Wenatchee 58 82 63 85 61 74 / 0 0 0 0 30 40 Omak 48 81 54 85 55 74 / 0 0 0 0 40 50 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for Central Chelan County-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Chelan County-Western Okanogan County. ID...None. && $$

168 FXUS66 KPDT 310508 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1008 PM PDT Sun Aug 30 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Drying and warming trend will continue through early Tuesday as upper level high pressure moves over the region - A series of upper level low pressure systems will bring periods of rain, breezy westerly winds, and isolated thunderstorm chances Tuesday into Friday && .DISCUSSION... Little to talk about this afternoon as satellite imagery shows some wisps of cirrus streaming east of the Cascades and pockets of denser smoke around active wildfires in the Cascades and Elkhorn crest. At the surface, winds have mainly be light, though a few weak gusts have developed across portions of the Columbia Basin. Today through early Tuesday: While temperatures will remain cooler than normal this afternoon behind yesterday`s upper low passage, an upper level ridge sliding into the PacNW will result in another warm-up that will persist into Tuesday. Conditions will remain dry under the high pressure aloft, with mostly light winds into early Tuesday. Behind the upper level ridge, an upper shortwave trough will amplify southward offshore out of the Gulf of Alaska, with southerly flow developing over the region by Tuesday morning. Tuesday and into the weekend: Confidence remains high (75-85%) that an active period of weather will be in store for the forecast area as two low pressure systems impact the area. Tuesday afternoon, the aforementioned shortwave trough offshore the PacNW will lift northeast with scattered rain showers developing along the Cascades, central OR, and the Blues mountains through Tuesday evening. The deep southerly flow ahead of the trough will result in weak instability developing over the area, though isolated thunderstorm chances (10-20%) will be limited to far northeast OR Tuesday afternoon. The approaching upper low will also result in pressure gradients tightening across the region, with breezy westerly winds developing in the lower elevations by Tuesday afternoon. Breezy winds will overlap with low relative humidity in the Harney Basin, promoting elevated fire weather conditions along the southern periphery of the Southern Blue mountains and central OR fire weather zones. Wednesday, there is good agreement amongst ensemble guidance that the upper trough will lift northeast across the PacNW, providing the best chance of widespread rain showers across the mountains and lower elevations through the remainder of the period. During transit, the upper trough will take on a negative tilt that will promote isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing across the Blue mountains in the afternoon and early evening. Breezy west to southwest winds will develop across the lower elevations throughout Wednesday, but the fire weather threat will remain low owing to cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity across the area. The probability of wetting rains (>0.1 inches) will be 30-65% in the lower elevations, and 70-90% in the mountains for Wednesday. Meanwhile, ensemble cluster solutions remain in good agreement that a potent upper low will dive south along the BC coastline and arrive offshore Vancouver Island by Wednesday evening. Thursday into Saturday, ensemble cluster solutions are in general agreement that the upper low offshore the PacNW will continue to impact the region with shower activity (especially over the Cascades), but diverge on the evolution of the upper low in regards to location and timing. The two main solutions are for the upper low to move inland and across the PacNW or stay offshore through the period. While there is agreement on the former occurring, ensemble cluster solutions are split on the timing of upper low moving inland. As what this means for the forecast, the solutions favoring the upper low moving inland will bring light to moderate rain showers to portions of the eastern mountains and the Blues; solutions favoring the upper low offshore keep shower chances tied to the Cascade crest and east slopes. While confidence remains moderate (60-75%) in rain showers continuing into the weekend, confidence is low (20-25%) in the details and timing. Lawhorn/82 && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... VFR conditions with winds 10 kts or less are expected for all sites through Monday. There is a low (<20%) chance that smoke could impact any location, especially towards morning, with BDN and RDM, having the best chances. However, probabilities are low enough to not include in any of the individual forecasts at this time. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 44 86 51 83 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 50 89 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 49 89 53 87 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 54 85 59 87 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 49 88 54 86 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 47 80 54 82 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 41 87 45 78 / 0 0 0 30 LGD 44 88 53 86 / 0 0 0 10 GCD 47 91 54 86 / 0 0 0 10 DLS 55 88 60 79 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for ORZ041-505-506- 509>511. && $$ DISCUSSION...82 AVIATION...77

147 FXUS65 KREV 302017 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 117 PM PDT Sun Aug 30 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Warm and overall dry conditions prevail through tomorrow with typical afternoon breezes returning Monday afternoon. * Gusty winds and low humidity bring elevated to critical fire weather conditions for northeast CA and parts of western NV Tuesday. * Cooler and breezy conditions are expected through the remainder of this week, with rain shower chances mainly in northeast CA and northwest NV Thursday and Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Overall tranquil weather prevails through the remainder of August with a brief warmup to near 90 degrees for lower elevations and near 80 for Sierra communities to close out the month on Monday. Winds today will be on the lighter side (gusts 20 mph or less), then typical zephyr-type breezes with gusts near 25 mph return Monday afternoon. A weak area of low pressure near the central CA coast may produce a few short lived showers (10% chance) near the Sierra crest in Mono County later this afternoon. Then as this low moves inland, a similar low-end 10% chance of showers/thunder shifts to Mineral and far eastern Churchill counties for Monday. As September begins on Tuesday, a low pressure trough approaching the northern CA coast will become the primary weather feature, bringing a more significant increase in winds from around midday through the evening. Precipitation chances are minimal as moisture is limited with this system, leading to fire weather concerns as detailed in the Fire Weather section below, along with aviation and lake recreation impacts. This trough is then projected to eject inland Tuesday night- Wednesday, leaving cooler conditions and continued breezy-gusty winds (gusts up to 35 mph) for Wednesday. A larger area of low pressure than reaches the Pacific NW coast for the late portion of this week, continuing breezy to windy periods, along with 15-30% chances for rain showers favoring northeast CA-northwest NV. Temperatures remain below average through the remainder of this week with highs mainly in the upper 70s-lower 80s for western NV valleys, and upper 60s-mid 70s for Sierra communities and far northeast CA-northwest NV. An early look ahead to Labor Day weekend favors a mainly dry start with decreasing winds, but a potential for increasing shower chances late Sunday through Monday. Confidence is lower due to varied locations of weather systems near or off the west coast, and potentially an additional push of moisture provided by an eastern Pacific tropical system by that time. MJD && .AVIATION... VFR conditions prevail at the main terminals through at least Tuesday with less than 10% chance for brief patchy FG at KTRK early Monday morning. Winds will be lighter this afternoon with gusts below 20 kts at the main terminals, then typical afternoon gusts around 20 kts return Monday. For Tuesday, gusts increase to 30-35 kts with increased mountain wave turbulence and periods of LLWS as a low pressure approaches the region. MJD && .FIRE WEATHER... Periods of elevated to critical fire weather conditions return early this week. On Monday, after a night of more limited humidity recovery, afternoon humidity reaches its lowest levels this week with minimum values dropping to near 10% across areas of northeast CA and northwest NV. SW-W Winds return to near typical speeds with gusts near 25 mph by mid-afternoon, but a few sites could see gusts near 30 mph for an hour or two. Tuesday continues to have the greatest concerns as Fire Weather Watches were issued for parts of northeast CA, northwest NV and extending southward to the northern Sierra Front (including Reno- Carson vicinity). Southwest wind gusts increase to 30-40 mph around the midday hours and continue through much of the evening, In addition, many of these areas north of Reno have received little or no rainfall through mid-late August, resulting in dry vegetation receptive to carrying fire if ignitions occur. By Wednesday, winds only diminish slightly (gusts to 25-35 mph) but minimum RH continues to increase. A few sites near/east of US-95 could see an hour or two of overlapping near-critical wind/RH conditions Wednesday afternoon. Breezy to windy conditions likely persist each day through Friday, but a cooler air mass with rising humidity, along with rain shower chances mainly north of Susanville-Gerlach will further decrease the risk of fire weather concerns. MJD && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening NVZ420-458. CA...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening CAZ270-278. && $$

889 FXUS66 KSTO 301843 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1143 AM PDT Sun Aug 30 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Well below normal temperatures persist through much of the week starting Monday. - Elevated Fire Weather conditions Monday afternoon and early evening in the northern Sac Valley, northeastern foothills, and Burney Basin due to low humidity and breezy winds. - Increasing confidence in areas of unsettled weather and continued cool temperatures late in the week and into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Early Week... Dry weather with near normal temperatures continues today. Monday, as a low pressure system moves through, temperatures will begin to cool to significantly below normal, with Valley highs in the 70s to low 80s by Tuesday. Monday will also see breezy onshore, south to southwest winds, strongest near the Delta and in the northern and central Sacramento Valley, northeast foothills, and Burney Basin. This, combined with relatively low humidities will lead to periods of elevated fire weather conditions on Monday. Tuesday, as the bulk of the trough approaches, there remains a non-zero chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms in the northwestern portion of Shasta county. Chances remain below 10% though. Mid to Late Week... The remainder of the week and into the weekend, troughing will remain the dominant pattern and will help maintain cooler than normal temperatures. Confidence is increasing in the overall pattern, with the low primarily located just offshore. This means while showers are still possible, especially towards the northern end of interior NorCal, chances are low that we`ll see totals more than a couple tenths of an inch anywhere. However, it will keep conditions cooler than normal, and will likely introduce some cloud cover to the area. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions prevail over the next 24 hours across interior NorCal. Surface winds will generally be below 12 kts for TAF sites through 18Z Monday, then increase in the afternoon with sustained SW winds to around 12 kts with gusts to 20 kts for the Sacramento metro area, south 15 kts with gusts to 20 to 30 kt for the northern Sacramento Valley. West southwest gusts up to 20 to 25 kts in the Delta are possible after 00Z this evening, increasing to 25 to 30 kts after 18Z Monday. Breezy to gusty southwest winds are expected after 18Z Monday over the Sierra, gusting up to 20 to 30 kts. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

298 FXUS65 KMSO 301954 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 154 PM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Unseasonably cold temperatures will bring frost to high- elevation valleys Monday morning, marking some of the coldest temperatures seen so far this year. - A brief warm-up with dry conditions and low relative humidities in the teens to low 20s is expected early next week. - A shortwave disturbance on Wednesday will increase thunderstorm activity and winds, posing a near-critical fire weather risk in southwest Montana before precipitation arrives. - An active, cooler weather pattern with above-normal precipitation probabilities returns late next week. Today through Tuesday: Clearing skies and drying air tonight will promote strong radiational cooling, leading to quite chilly Monday morning low temperatures. These morning lows will be some of the coldest temperatures we have seen so far this year. Widespread frost is expected in high-elevation locations, including Seeley Lake, Georgetown, Drummond to Butte, and Dixie Idaho, where temperatures will drop into the upper 20s to low 30s. Localized light frost may also reach lower elevation spots like Stevensville and the western Missoula Valley. Transitory ridging will bring warm, dry conditions Monday into Tuesday, pushing valley highs back into the 80s. With this ridge, a drier airmass will spread across the region, dropping afternoon relative humidities into the widespread teens to low 20 percent range on Monday. By Tuesday afternoon and evening, the ridge will begin to break down, yielding a slight increase in winds, scattered showers, and isolated thunderstorms. High cloud bases showers on Tuesday afternoon elevating the potential for strong, gusty outflow winds. Wednesday through Late Week: A notable shortwave disturbance will move through the area on Wednesday, bringing a definite uptick in winds and more widespread thunderstorm activity, particularly across southwest Montana. Before the precipitation arrives Wednesday afternoon, these stronger winds combined with the dry conditions could create near- critical fire weather conditions in southwest Montana. As the system fully moves in, the showers and thunderstorms will carry the potential to produce moderate to heavy rainfall. Wetting rain probabilities will increase to 50-70% across much of the Northern Rockies during this timeframe. Lingering showers and elevated winds will persist into Thursday and Friday before winds taper off for the weekend. Looking into the weekend, ensemble guidance shows strong confidence that a trough of low pressure will sit over the Pacific Northwest. This will maintain southwesterly flow over the Northern Rockies, keeping temperatures slightly below seasonal averages and favoring an active regime with above-normal precipitation probabilities due to daily shower and thunderstorm activity. && .AVIATION...Showers and lowered ceilings will continue to impact northwest Montana especially between KGPI and Glacier National park, that will obscured mountains at times. Gusty westerly winds will steadily decrease throughout the afternoon into the evening. A ridge of high pressure will be building over the region tonight into Monday. This ridge will allow for the development of patchy fog and low stratus. KGPI will have the best potential of experiencing fog. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

282 FXUS65 KBOI 302156 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 356 PM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool and dry today then warmer Mon and Tue. - Chance of thunderstorms in S-central ID Mon, and Central ID Tue afternoons. - A strong low pressure system expected later this week will bring cooler, windier, and wetter conditions. && .SHORT TERM /Through Tuesday Night/... Issued 203 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2026 Cooler temps today and clear skies will be short lived as a brief ridge builds in Monday alongside warmer southwesterly flow. Temperatures warm about 10 degrees Sunday into Monday, right around seasonal averages for this time of year. Behind the shortwave ridge, a strong upper level low pressure system brings a significant shift Tuesday onwards. The moisture ahead of this system will support isolated thunderstorms in the Magic Valley Monday. Thunderstorm activity moves north into the Central Idaho highlands and mountains for Tuesday. Additionally, winds begin to increase Tuesday afternoon, with gusts up to 30 mph across the area outside of sheltered valleys. The warmer temps are shortlived Monday and Tuesday, before a cool down Tuesday night as the low moves properly into the region. && .LONG TERM /Wednesday through Sunday/... Issued 203 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2026 A chance of precipitation will follow the exiting shortwave trough on Wednesday as a deeper closed low drops down the coast. Initially the low is fairly broad as it spans the exiting trough. This will keep a 30-60% chance of showers across SE Oregon and the w-central ID mtns through Thursday. Precipitation retracts westward on Friday as the low consolidates along the Oregon coast and the region falls under a drier southerly flow, out of the reach of the deeper moisture and dynamics. From here we`ll be watching for when/how the low lifts eastward as this could bring another round of showers and possible thunderstorms. Early guidance would indicate late in the weekend or early next week. The S/SW flow aloft will favor gusty afternoon winds over elevated terrain, the stronger gusts across Harney, Malheur and Owyhee counties. Late afternoon/evening wind pushes across SE Oregon could shift winds to the NW for Thur/Fri. The temperature spread (10-90%tile) increases to 20 degrees for Thur- Sun with the ensemble mean placing high temperatures near or slightly below normal. && .AVIATION /00Z Monday through Tuesday/... Issued 356 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2026 VFR under clear skies. Localized visibility reductions due to smoke near wildfires in Baker County and Boise Mountains. Surface winds: W-NW 5-15 kt this evening, then light and variable overnight. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W 5-15 kt. KBOI...VFR under clear skies. NW under 10 kt winds becoming SE under 10 kt winds overnight. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....NF SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....DG

055 FXUS65 KLKN 301904 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1204 PM PDT Sun Aug 30 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm activity will continue across southeastern Nevada today and across eastern Nevada by Monday afternoon. * A short weather break possible mid-week, followed by more rounds of active weather next weekend. * Temperatures continue to remain at or below normal for the next couple days. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Sunday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue across southeastern portions of Nevada this afternoon, and across eastern Nevada by tomorrow afternoon, as residual moisture slowly pushes eastward. By mid-week, atmospheric stability will increase for a more calm weather conditions as the high pressure over the Four Corners weakens and moves east, while the low pressure system stays north over southern Canada. Another strong low pressure system from the Gulf of Alaska will make it`s way towards the northwestern CONUS. This will extend into the southwestern CONUS, shifting the patterns to a southwesterly flow across the state with much cooler temperatures moving in. Weather conditions remain dry as PWATs stay below 0.4 inches with some southwesterly afternoon breezes up to 15-20 mph, gusts up to 25-30 mph. High temperatures will be several degrees below normal in the 70s to 80s. By the weekend, an interesting weather pattern takes shape with models agreeing that the low pressure system to the northwest pushes further south along the Pacific northwest, strengthens, and situates over Oregon and Washington. At the same time, a Pacific tropical storm will move north along Mexico`s coastline and into the southwestern US, bringing a surge of tropical moisture into Nevada. As for the timing and position, by the end of the weekend the model discrepancies begin to increase, but with little deviations among them. Both consistently agree on the moisture surge and timing, but slight differentiate on the position. GFS pushes towards Southern California, while ECWMF extends a little further outward off the Coast of California then pushes into northern California. The low pressure to the northwest is also showing some deviations within the models with GFS showing the system weakens and pushes east as the tropical system moves in, while ECMWF pushes further out into the Pacific and merges with the tropical system. These systems will be closely looked at as we approach into the next weekend. && FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence on isolated showers and thunderstorms over southeastern Nevada today and eastern Nevada tomorrow afternoon. High confidence for brief weather break over the mid-week with cooling temperatures trends and breezy afternoon winds. Moderate confidence for active low pressure system moving across the northwestern CONUS. Low to moderate confidence on active weather returning next weekend with a tropical system surge into Nevada. No changes to the grids were made at this time. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through Monday afternoon. VCTS at KELY and KENV through early Sunday evening. Any TS that does occur may create momentary MVFR/IFR condtions over terminals. Sunday afternoon wind gusts are forecast for KELY where southwest winds will gust near 20KTs. Monday afternoon wind gusts at KTPH will gust to near 22KTs out of the south. && .FIRE WEATHER...Thunderstorm activity for Sunday will be confined to FWZ425 and the very southern portion of FWZ470. Primary threats will be dangerous lightning, gusty erratic winds that will enhance extreme fire behavior, and localized flooding especially over recent burn scars where debris flows are possible. On Monday storm activity over eastern NV will focus on FWZ 425/438/469/470. This will also include the eastern portions of FWZ 426/427. Primary threats will be the same as those for Sunday. On Tuesday stronger westerly flow over FWZ437 combined with lower RH values will create elevated fire weather concerns in northwest NV. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...97 AVIATION...99 FIRE WEATHER...99