861 FXUS66 KSEW 230508 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 1008 PM PDT Thu Oct 22 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Generally dry and mild conditions are expected through the end of the week, with light precipitation possible over the weekend as low pressure moves south from the British Columbia coast. Weak ridging and drier conditions are forecast through the last week of the month, but a return to a more active weather regime is possible as of the first week of November. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The dissipating front has left mostly cloudy skies across western Washington this afternoon, with highs in the mid 50s and low 60s. Skies will be clearer on Friday and with slightly cooler temperatures. A low pressure system will be moving into Washington waters Saturday for a chance of showers throughout the day. Morning lows on Saturday will be in the upper 30s to low 40s. Mountain valley locations could be in the low 30s for possible frost and freezes. More of the precipitation will be focused along the Olympic Peninsula with amounts of only a few hundredths of an inch inland through Puget Sound. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Some shower activity will linger into Sunday but will remain mostly cloudy. Only a few hundredths of an inch are in the forecast for Sunday but generally conditions look to become drier trending into Sunday afternoon. Some of the ensemble guidance takes the aforementioned low pressure system inland into Oregon early in the week, which would keep conditions on the cooler and cloudier side, other solutions bring in weak high pressure. The majority of the week will be dry. However, there are extended range solutions indicating that the end of the month and into the first week of November may signal a switch to a more active pattern. The probabilistic week two hazards have portions of the CWA highlighted for slight risks of heavy rain, possible mountain snow and some breezier conditions for the immediate coast. Stay tuned to the forecast as details evolve. 21 && .AVIATION... Mostly VFR this evening. With winds remaining light, we`ll see another round of MVFR to IFR/localized LIFR conditions as low stratus and fog expand over the region early Friday morning, particularly south of the Puget Sound and over the Kitsap Peninsula. Flight conditions are expected to improve to VFR across western Washington Friday afternoon under clear skies. Surface winds ease this evening and shift southeasterly early Friday morning, switching back to northerly Friday afternoon. KSEA...VFR with occasionally breezy NW winds 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Winds will ease later this evening and become light overnight, but return to northerly Friday morning. Confidence is increasing over MVFR ceilings developing over the terminal overnight, with a 35-40% chance of cigs below 3000 feet and a 30% chance of cigs below 2000 feet between 12z-18z Friday morning. VFR conditions expected to return by the afternoon. && .MARINE... Northwesterly winds will continue to pick up through the evening and into early Friday in the wake of a weak frontal system. Along with winds, seas will build to 9 to 14 feet over the inner coastal waters, and up to 11 to 17 feet across the outer coastal waters through Friday morning. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory remains across the coastal waters through Friday. While seas will gradually ease along the coast Friday afternoon, seas will come down a little slower further from shore, and the Small Craft goes through Friday afternoon across the outer coastal waters. Have also issued an advisory for Grays Harbor Bar with seas around 10 ft and remaining fairly steep tonight through early Friday. Winds and seas will ease and subside by late Friday, with a more benign pattern settling in over area waters into Saturday. By Sunday, a low pressure system will move southward over the region, though some uncertainty remains over the storm track. While winds are expected to remain low, seas may build over the outer coastal waters to around 10 feet Sunday morning with this incoming system, then ease into next week where they will remain around 4 to 5 feet. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Friday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm- Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-Grays Harbor Bar. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Friday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm. && $$

717 FXUS66 KPQR 230522 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATE National Weather Service Portland OR 1022 PM PDT Thu Oct 22 2026 Updated aviation discussion and watches/warnings/advisories section. .SYNOPSIS...Dry weather is expected through much of Saturday, before rain chances increase through the latter half of the weekend. Persistent seasonable temperatures through the period. && .DISCUSSION...Now through Thursday...A weak upper shortwave passing overhead this afternoon will reinforce onshore flow, allowing for continued seasonable temperatures through the coming days, but is unlikely to produce rainfall. Meanwhile, a cutoff low over California is transporting moisture northward on its eastern flank toward eastern/central Oregon, which may produce light rain showers through this evening in the north and central Oregon Cascades. Much of the precipitation evident on area radar is evaporating before it reaches the surface, with the majority of observed rainfall east of the Cascade crest measuring 0.1 inches or less. If any rain does reach the ground west of the crest, it will likely also only manage to add up to a few hundredths of an inch. As skies clear west of the Cascades tonight, efficient radiative cooling will allow temperatures to fall into the low to mid 30s away from the coast and from urban areas, yielding widespread chances for frost and, within the southern Willamette Valley and sheltered Coast Range valleys, local area where a freeze is expected. Freeze Warnings have therefore been issued from 11 PM PDT this evening until 9 AM PDT Friday for portions of Lane, Benton, and Linn Counties within the Willamette Valley as well as interior valleys of the northern Coast Range including near Vernonia and Grand Ronde. Frost Advisories also remain in effect for the same times elsewhere in the Coast Range, central Willamette Valley, and interior south Washington lowlands. Those with agricultural interests or sensitive outdoor plants should take action to prevent damage. There is then high confidence that dry weather returns tonight through much of Saturday as transient upper ridging traverses the region. As the ridge axis shifts inland on Friday night, light offshore flow, peaking overnight in the Cascades and Coast Range, will see daytime temperatures warm slightly on Saturday, but will generally remain near seasonal norms with afternoon high temperatures in the 50s on the coast and in terrain, and in the low to mid 60s within inland valleys. Overnight temperatures will again fall into the low to mid 30s for many away from the coast on Friday night, with Freeze Watches and Frost Advisories remaining in effect; Freeze Watches may be upgraded to Freeze Warnings if confidence increases in temperatures falling to near or below freezing. There remains good consensus among long-range ensembles that another cutoff low will develop over the Gulf of Alaska on Saturday and track to the southeast offshore of Vancouver Island. By Sunday, there is less agreement on how the low will evolve as it nears the Pacific Northwest. For now, There are modest chances, near 50%, for rain on Sunday across the region, decreasing through the first half of next week as troughing may linger overhead. Cool air aloft will also likely continue to support seasonable temperatures for late October. -36 && .AVIATION...Through 06Z Friday...The surface front has moved east of the Cascades as of 05z Fri. Elevated winds due to the frontal passage have been decreasing, and most terminals should observe winds below 8 kts by 06-10z Thu. Winds along the coast will remain north to northwesterly while winds in interior valleys will become variable. Mainly VFR conditions being observed at inland terminals, though satellite imagery depicts low stratus along the SW WA Cascades pushing south towards the Vancouver and Portland metro areas. There`s a 40-60% chance that MVFR cigs impact KPDX, KTTD, KUAO, and surrounding terminals at any hour between 05-14z Fri. Additionally, there`s a 15-25% chance of MVFR cigs around KSLE, KEUG, and surrounding terminals closer to sunrise, between 12-17z Fri. In terms of fog formation, chances for surface visibilities less than 5 SM at all TAF sites remain less than 10% as it appears winds will remain just strong enough to prevent fog development. Temperatures in the low to mid 30s across the region may result in frost development over metal surfaces between 08-17z Fri. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Predominately VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. There`s a 40-60% chance of MVFR cigs at any hours between 05-14z Thu as stratus observed to the north at 05z Thu pushes south. Light and variable winds expected through the TAF period. -03 && .MARINE...Buoy observations from 2 PM PDT Thursday showed northerly winds increasing behind a cold frontal passage, with sustained winds between 15 and 25 kt and gusts up to 30 kt. Seas were beginning to gradually increase as a northwest swell continues to build over the waters. Seas are expected to continue building this evening, becoming steep and hazardous shortly after sunset. Seas will then remain steep and hazardous through early Friday morning with significant wave heights ranging between 8 and 12 ft and wave periods between 8 and 10 seconds. Small Craft Advisories remain in place for all marine zones until 8 PM PDT Thursday, before ramping up to a Hazardous Seas Warning lasting from 8 AM PDT Thursday until 8 AM PDT Friday for all marine zones, except the main channel of the Columbia River Bar where a Small Craft Advisory is in effect now through 8 AM PDT Friday. Seas will be relatively less steep over the Columbia River Bar with significant wave heights of 7 to 9 ft at 8 to 10 seconds, but will still be hazardous to small craft, especially during ebb currents. It is also worth noting that brief and isolated wind gusts as high as 35 kt are possible through 10 PM PDT Thursday over the Columbia River Bar, but wind gusts of this magnitude are not expected to be frequent enough to justify the issuance of a Gale Warning. North winds weaken late Friday morning into the afternoon with a continued northwest swell and seas becoming less steep. North winds will then persist through at least Saturday afternoon as an approaching low stalls west of the coastal waters. There is still uncertainty on the exact strength and track of this low heading into Saturday night and Sunday. Despite this uncertainty, confidence is high wind speeds will stay below gale-force, as probabilities for wind gusts of 34 kt or stronger are now less than 10% this weekend. Probabilities for seas over 10 ft reach 10-20% Sunday morning and afternoon. -23 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Frost Advisory from 11 PM Friday to 9 AM PDT Saturday for ORZ101>103-105-107>109-111>113-119-123. Freeze Warning until 9 AM PDT Friday for ORZ104-116>118. Freeze Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for ORZ104-106-114>118-124-125. Frost Advisory until 9 AM PDT Friday for ORZ105>107-109-114-115- 124-125. WA...Frost Advisory from 11 PM Friday to 9 AM PDT Saturday for WAZ203>208. Frost Advisory until 9 AM PDT Friday for WAZ203>205-208. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PDT Friday for PZZ210. Hazardous Seas Warning until 8 AM PDT Friday for PZZ251>253- 271>273. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 5 PM PDT Friday for PZZ251>253-271>273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

680 FXUS66 KMFR 230347 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 847 PM PDT Thu Oct 22 2026 ...Updated the Marine Section... .AVIATION...23/00Z TAFs...Showers east of the Cascades this evening will gradually shift eastward. Areas of MVFR and mountain obscuration will accompany the showers. Elsewhere, VFR ceilings will persist with isolated mountain obscuration and also gusty north winds near the coast. Overnight, after 07Z, conditions should gradually improve with prevailing VFR by morning. But, with residual low level moisture and a stabilizing air mass, the period near sunrise into mid-morning around 13-17Z) will create areas of low visibility and ceilings along the coast and in valleys. VFR is expected across the area from Friday afternoon into Friday night. && .MARINE...Updated 830 PM PDT Thursday, October 22, 2026...A thermal trough will strengthen along the coast through Friday morning. This will maintain gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas, with high seas beyond 5 nm from shore. Conditions improve north of Cape Blanco later Friday as north winds ease, but hazardous conditions will persist in the south. Improvement in all areas is expected over the weekend, though with steep seas likely to linger in the southern waters Saturday through Saturday evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1208 PM PDT Thu Oct 22 2026/ KEY MESSAGES... * Widespread showers today will diminish through tonight. While most areas will receive light rain, western Siskiyou County, the Cascades, and far eastern Modoc and Lake counties could receive over an inch of rain through tonight. * Gusty west to northwest winds this afternoon/evening, with gusts 25-35 mph continuing overnight over terrain. * Dry conditions Friday through much of Sunday; clearing skies Friday night expected to bring Frost/Freeze conditions to West Side Valleys Saturday morning. * Low pressure late Sunday into Monday could bring light precipitation along and west of Cascades. DISCUSSION...Low pressure continues to swirl over California, pushing plenty of moisture into the region. Meanwhile, an incoming trough can be seen on satellite approaching the Pacific Northwest. The trough will sweep the California low eastward later today and bring a dry cold front through the region overnight into early Friday. High pressure moves eastward on Friday, lingering just offshore through much of the weekend. Low pressure from the Gulf of Alaska dampens the ridge and moves into the Pacific Northwest late Sunday into Tuesday. Between the two systems today, a deformation zone has developed along a line from western Siskiyou county through the Rogue Valley and over the Cascades to northern Klamath County. This is where the bulk of showers are appearing on radar as of this afternoon. Precipitation amounts will be fairly light overall, up to a tenth, for most areas, but as the deformation zone shifts east and the front approaches later this afternoon and evening, the highest precipitation amounts will be focused across eastern Siskiyou/Klamath/southern Lake Counties and much of Modoc County, where rainfall amounts could reach between 0.5 to 1" (higher end amounts most likely in favored upslope areas of the Warner/Hart mountains). Precipitation chances drop off quickly from west to east as the day progresses today, with showers lingering across the East Side into the evening before this system finally gets swept eastward by a kicker trough from the northwest tonight. This kicker trough will bring a dry cold front through the region late this evening and overnight into Friday morning. Gusty west to northwest winds are expected later this afternoon as this front moves through the region. Since this front is coming through later in the day and overnight, winds won`t be quite as strong as if there was full daytime mixing, but gusts of 25-35 mph will be common across the higher terrain tonight, especially along and east of the Warners/Winter Ridge. This front will be dry for the most part, but guidance is showing some light rain potential along the north facing slopes of the Siskiyous and the Rogue-Umpqua Basin. Otherwise, gusty winds and cooler temperatures for Friday will be the main impacts from this incoming front. Expect some chilly temperatures Friday morning (mid-upper 30s West, mid-upper 20s East), but ample cloud cover should limit frost conditions for West Side Valleys. Dry conditions return by Friday morning as high pressure settles just offshore where it will linger through much of the weekend. Quiet, low impact weather is expected through the weekend. High temperatures trend a few degrees cooler for Friday (low 60s West/low- mid 50s East), then warm by around 5-10 degrees for Saturday and Sunday. With clear skies expected Friday night, low temperatures Saturday morning will be the coolest of the forecast period and this will be the best chance for frost/freeze conditions in the West Side Valleys. A frost advisory has been issued only for the Umpqua and Coquille valleys as all other inland areas have experienced a freeze this season. Guidance is finally coming into better agreement with a trough next week. There is general agreement on a weaker than previously advertised trough coming from the Gulf of Alaska that will dampen the offshore ridge and move into the Pacific Northwest sometime late Sunday through Tuesday. There are location differences in the trajectory of this trough. The EC camp is a bit farther south than the GEFS, which would bring slightly higher precipitation chances/amounts. Either solution favors the higher chances (20-40%) along and west of the Cascades centered on Sunday night into Monday. Precipitation amounts are currently forecast to be fairly light again, which isn`t exactly the best of news considering the dry October we`ve had so far. Temperatures trend a few degrees cooler for early next week and low impact weather looks to continue through much of next week. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM PDT Saturday for ORZ021-023. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ350-356-370. Hazardous Seas Warning until 8 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ356-376. Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 AM PDT Friday for PZZ370. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 8 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ376. && $$

204 FXUS66 KEKA 230702 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 1202 AM PDT Fri Oct 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry, cooler, and breezy conditions are expected today with frost or freezing temperatures possible tonight into Saturday morning. * There is the potential for a pattern change to cooler and wetter weather early next week. && .SYNOPSIS...Dry weather arrives today and likely through the weekend. Cool and breezier conditions are likely today with near to below freezing temperatures possible tonight. Warm and dry conditions are expected Saturday. The next chance for rain for Humboldt and Del Norte is expected by late this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION...The upper low that brought rainfall over northwestern California over the last few days finally moves out of the area today. A dry cold front brings in much drier and cooler air into the area, and also breezy northwesterly winds. Gusts of 20 to 30 mph are possible along the coast this afternoon and evening. Breezy northeast winds are possible in eastern Lake County and along the exposed ridges. Widespread valley fog and lingering high clouds from the upper low will prevent a widespread frost early this morning. However, clearing skies Friday and offshore flow building in the evening and overnight will promote a much colder night across the area. Much of the interior valleys could see low temperatures in the high 20s to the mid 30s. Even the coast, especially a few miles inland, could see temperatures in the mid to high 30s as well. Frost will be possible for much of the interior valleys outside southern Mendocino and Lake, where winds will keep temperatures slightly higher. A relatively warm and dry day is expected Saturday across the area with high pressure at least temporarily rebuilding. There is still a lot of uncertainty on the pattern Sunday into early next week. Around 25% of models still paint a troughing pattern with a weak front arriving Sunday evening or night, bringing rain to Humboldt and Del Norte. The remaining 75% of model solutions show high pressure remaining at least into Monday. Interior high temperatures Sunday may be in the high 60s or low 80s depending on which pattern winds out and how much cloud cover we receive. The pattern remains chaotic into early next week with a near 50/50 split between a ridging or troughing pattern. In terms of potential precipitation, on Sunday there is around a 20% chance of wetting rain (over 0.1") in Del Norte and much lower chances elsewhere. On Monday, there is around a 20 to 40% chance of wetting rain over Del Norte and Humboldt Counties. Chances for wetting rain diminish mid next week, but more wet weather is possible late next week, but model guidance remains just as chaotic. Stay tuned! JB && .AVIATION...(6Z TAFs)...The upper low bringing rain over the area is quickly moving out of the area. A dry cold front is expected to gradually diminish cloud cover over the night. Still, lingering MVFR ceilings are possible through the early morning. Areas of fog, especially in the sheltered inland valleys, are possible from the recent rains. Any lingering cloud cover or fog is expected to diminish after sunrise. Breezy northwest winds are likely at the coastal terminals and may near or exceed 30 kts, especially at KCEC. && .MARINE...Northerly winds are quickly increasing behind a dry cold frontal passage late Thursday evening. Gale force gusts are likely in the outer waters into the evening today. The northern inner waters are likely to see widespread gale force gusts early this morning through late morning. While winds diminish below gales in the inner waters, winds will remain breezy up to 30 kts through the afternoon, with locally higher winds possible around Point St. George. Steep seas of 9 to 13 ft are expected with these winds. Winds and seas diminish Saturday into Sunday as a low pressure system approaches north of the area. JB && .FIRE WEATHER...A much drier airmass arrives today into Saturday as an upper low exits the region. More widespread breezy offshore winds are expected over the higher terrain this evening and overnight. Winds will be most widespread in the higher elevations of Lake County and eastern Mendocino Counties. Overnight recoveries outside the valley floors are likely to be poor given these offshore winds with maximum RHs in the 20s and 30s. While elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely in the highest terrain, recent rains may limit the impact of these conditions somewhat. JB && .COASTAL FLOODING...High astronomical tides associated with the full moon will bring chances for coastal flooding around Humboldt Bay starting as early as Sunday with chances continuing through next week. Astronomical tides at the North Spit tide gauge reaches 7.49 ft MLLW on 11:26 AM Sunday. With the tidal anomaly currently running 1.0 to 1.5 ft above forecast, minor coastal flooding is possible at these levels. The highest astronomical tides, and highest chances for coastal flooding, are forecast to be on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week at 8.04 ft and 8.06 ft, respectively. JB && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for CAZ108-110-111-114-116-117. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Friday for PZZ450. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ455. Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ470. Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Friday for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

074 FXUS66 KMTR 230746 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1246 AM PDT Fri Oct 23 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1231 AM PDT Fri Oct 23 2026 - Gusty offshore flow across the North Bay Interior Mountains tonight through Saturday morning - Below normal temperatures today, increase to near normal for the weekend - Coastal Flooding due to full moon and thermal expansion this weekend through at least the middle of next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1231 AM PDT Fri Oct 23 2026 (Today and tonight) The first rainfall event of the new water year is winding down, after bringing widespread beneficial wetting rainfall across our entire forecast area. Pockets of scattered light rain across the Central Coast remains possible through sunrise this morning. Lingering clouds and moisture will help keep temperatures below normal today before warming to near normal for the weekend. A developing burst of offshore flow will produce gusty winds across the North Bay Interior Mountains this evening through the morning hours Saturday as a relatively weak and progressive `inside slider` trough passes south through the Central Valley today. A much drier airmass will build in behind the trough with PWATs falling from around 0.75" during the day today, to below 0.50" after sunset. The strongest wind gusts will occur above 2500ft, up to 45 MPH with little vertical gradient forcing to help translate stronger winds to lower lying areas. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1231 AM PDT Fri Oct 23 2026 (Saturday through Thursday) The weekend will see a return of temperatures to near normal for this time of year and bright sunny skies due to the drier airmass. Progressive low amplitude ridging this weekend will give way to an upper level low dropping south out of the PNW for the beginning of next week. Overall, consensus in the synoptic patter begins to diverge from there, but either way temperatures appear to remain right around normal with some pleasant Fall days through the extended forecast. Minor coastal flooding due to lunar phase and thermal expansion is possible at normal trouble spots. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 817 PM PDT Thu Oct 22 2026 Current conditions are VFR-MVFR with a few areas of IFR. Lingering showers will diminish tonight. Areas of MVFR-IFR will continue including the development of patchy fog /IFR-LIFR/ tonight and Friday morning. Northerly winds and drying Friday will result in more widespread VFR Friday afternoon and evening. Vicinity of SFO...VFR-MVFR due to low clouds and a few lingering showers tonight. Low clouds clear to VFR later Friday morning with VFR forecast Friday afternoon and evening. West wind 10 to 15 knots decreasing and becoming light northeast Friday morning then shifting to west 10 to 12 knots Friday afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR-MVFR due to low clouds and a few lingering showers tonight. Low clouds clear to VFR later Friday morning with VFR forecast Friday afternoon and evening. West to northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 813 PM PDT Thu Oct 22 2026 Lingering showers tonight will turn to drier weather Friday and over the weekend. Moderate to locally strong northerly breezes will develop resulting in hazardous conditions, fresh swell and steeper wind waves. Northerly breezes ease Friday night and over the weekend. Moderate seas build, becoming rough to very rough across the outer waters Friday into Saturday before abating Sunday into next week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

724 FXUS66 KOTX 230611 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1111 PM PDT Thu Oct 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain will taper off through Friday morning. - Dry and windy Friday Okanogan Valley/Highlands, Waterville Plateau, and Upper Columbia Basin leading to elevated fire weather conditions, potential for patchy blowing dust, and isolated tree damage. - Cooler temperatures Friday into next week. && .SYNOPSIS... Rain continues through Friday morning. Central Washington will miss out on the rain, which combined with dry and windy conditions on Friday will lead to elevated fire weather conditions and the potential for patchy blowing dust. Cooler weather is expected Friday, through the weekend, and into the following week. && .DISCUSSION... Today: The weeks closed Low will push north as a upper level trough dips in from the Gulf of Alaska. The Low center will pass over Western MT and swing a cold front through the Inland Northwest during the morning hours. Rain chances will diminish west to east as the front passes. Short term ensembles have a 25-75 probability of an additional 0.1-0.3 of an inch of precip through Friday. Most will fall through the morning hours. As the backside of the trough moves into the region, a low level jet of 50-60 kts will bring push breezy north to south low level winds through the Okanogan Valley and across the Western Columbia Basin. Wind speeds in the low to mid level (800-750mb) are in the 30-40 kt range. Surface winds in aforementioned areas can expect sustained winds in the upper teens-20 mph and gusts into the upper 30-40 mph range. The Waterville Plateau has a near 50 percent probability of isolated gusts into the 50s. A wind advisory has been issued for the areas of concern. Winds will start to decrease mid afternoon as A ridge starts to fill in behind the exiting trough. Highs will be in the 50s to low 60s. Overnight lows will be 20s to low 30s. Saturday through Thursday: Saturday will be be mainly dry as the region is under a dry slot between the exiting Low and another one located off the coast of BC. Models continue to show a low dropping along the coast. The discrepancy comes with the track of the low. Around 60 percent of the ensembles have the Low pushing through the North Oregon and bringing another round of light precip to the region. The other 40 percent have the Low fizzling out along the coast line with a stronger ridge over the region. Highs for the period will be in the upper 40s and 50s. Overnight lows will be in the upper 20s and 30s. /JDC && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: Showers are currently stretching across the Columbia Basin, northern mountains, and Idaho Panhandle. TAF sites currently impacted are KLWS/KPUW/KMWH/KGEG/KSFF/KCOE. The ample low level moisture has brought IFR/MVFR ceilings/VIS to KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW/KLWS. These ceilings are expected to last through 13Z. VFR skies are expected across Central WA for KOMK/KEAT/KMWH/KCQV. Northwest winds will increase across the Cascades through 12Z. Stronger northerly winds will develop in the Okanogan Valley between 07-12Z and spread toward KMWH. Local gusts around 45 mph expected at KOMK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Moderate to high confidence on the continued IFR?MVFR conditions over KGEG-KSFF- KCOE-KPUW-KLWS. High confidence on the winds for KMWH-KOMK. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 42 57 30 55 34 58 / 100 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 43 56 32 55 33 57 / 100 10 0 0 0 0 Pullman 40 52 28 54 33 59 / 100 10 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 47 57 32 58 36 63 / 100 20 0 0 0 0 Colville 36 58 21 55 25 57 / 60 0 0 0 0 10 Sandpoint 44 55 30 53 31 54 / 100 20 10 0 0 0 Kellogg 43 50 31 53 33 57 / 100 50 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 39 63 27 57 30 58 / 20 0 0 0 0 10 Wenatchee 42 61 36 54 37 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 20 Omak 41 60 30 54 33 58 / 0 0 0 0 10 20 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Wind Advisory until 3 PM PDT Friday for Okanogan Highlands- Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau. ID...None. && $$

176 FXUS66 KPDT 230544 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1044 PM PDT Thu Oct 22 2026 .Updated Aviation Discussion. .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain and slight chance (10-15%) of thunderstorms today, with the best chances of wetting rain (0.10" or greater) over the Blue Mountains (90-99% chance) through early Friday. - Breezy to windy westerly to northwesterly winds late this afternoon into Friday, strongest through the Cascade gaps where Wind Advisories in effect. - Widespread near- to sub-freezing low temperatures in the Columbia Basin and surrounding lowlands Saturday morning (50-95% chance). Freeze Watches issued. && .DISCUSSION... Water vapor imagery shows a large closed low over central California, and a weak mid-level circulation wrapping north- northwest around the parent low is evident over southeast Oregon. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough is approaching the Pacific Northwest from the northeast Pacific Ocean, and is forecast to move onshore late this afternoon. Widespread showers have developed across central to eastern Oregon and south-central to southeast Washington, and isolated embedded lightning has been observed over the Blue Mountains and their adjacent foothills. Modest instability is present (100 J/kg or less MUCAPE per SPC`s RAP-based mesoanalysis), and 12Z HREF mean forecast values remain below 500 J/kg through the day (highest for the northeast Blue Mountains). Aside from the isolated lightning within the ongoing band of showers, the best chance for notable convection will be this afternoon and evening across the Blue Mountains region of Grant, Union, and Wallowa counties; convection developing across southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho will track north to northeast and the portion in Oregon may (50% confidence) clip the aforementioned counties. Main hazards associated with this activity will be lightning and gusty outflow winds. Looking ahead to late this afternoon into the evening hours, breezy to windy westerly to northwesterly winds are forecast to ramp through the Cascade gaps and across wind-prone portions of north-central Oregon as pressure gradients increase in strength (8-11 mb difference between PDX and GEG in latest NWP guidance) and a modest low-level jet (25-40 kts) develops. Confidence is medium-high (60-90%) in reaching advisory-level wind gusts (45 mph or greater) through the Kittitas Valley, eastern Columbia River Gorge, and wind-prone portions of north-central Oregon; Wind Advisories are in effect from 7 PM this evening until 11 AM Friday morning. Precipitation is forecast to taper off through Friday morning from west to east as the shortwave trough moves overhead, and a very dry air mass (PWAT of 0.15-0.40") replaces the moist air mass currently in place. This will set the stage for near- to sub-freezing temperatures Friday night into Saturday morning. While most public forecast zones have observed a season-ending freeze, a widespread freeze has not yet occurred in the lowest elevations of our forecast area. Given the anticipated dry air mass, predominantly light winds, and mostly clear skies, confidence is medium-high (50-95%) that a season-ending freeze will be observed in the lower Columbia Basin, eastern Columbia River Gorge, Yakima Valley, and the foothills of the northern Blue Mountains, so have issued Freeze Watches. Uncertainty in the 500-hPa height field burgeons Sunday through early next week due to continued ensemble spread in solutions regarding the development and evolution of a closed low in the Gulf of Alaska region. Roughly 50-60% of ensemble members depict a compact closed low moving inland Monday through mid- week, while another 20-30% of members show a weaker low, and the remaining members advertise an upper-level ridge over the Pacific Northwest. The scenario that shows a stronger closed low would result in shower chances and cooler temperatures, while the weaker low would warmer and drier, and the upper-level ridge would be warm and completely dry. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Varied conditions across all sites this evening, with VFR at KDLS/KRDM/KBDN/KYKM and MVFR at KPDT/KALW/KPSC due to light rain reducing visibilities of 4 to 5 SM. Rain will continue to depart east overnight, improving visibilities to above VFR criteria. Breezy conditions with gusts of 20-25kts expected for most sites through the morning, with lower winds of around 10kts over KPDT/KALW. Clouds clear through the afternoon. 75 && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 41 57 26 58 / 90 0 0 0 ALW 43 57 32 59 / 100 10 0 0 PSC 42 63 28 58 / 60 0 0 0 YKM 40 65 30 57 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 43 60 28 57 / 80 0 0 0 ELN 40 57 24 55 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 28 53 19 60 / 10 0 0 0 LGD 40 51 25 59 / 100 10 0 0 GCD 37 52 26 62 / 100 10 0 0 DLS 44 63 33 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT Friday for WAZ024-026. Freeze Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for WAZ024-027>029. OR...Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT Friday for ORZ041-510. Freeze Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for ORZ041-044-507. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...75

766 FXUS65 KREV 222148 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 248 PM PDT Thu Oct 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Persistent rain this afternoon and tonight may cause localized flooding in northeastern Lassen County, Surprise Valley, northern Washoe County and northwestern Pershing County, especially near burn scars. * Showers and isolated thunderstorms may produce small hail, gusty outflows and brief downpours this afternoon and evening. Snow bursts above 8000 feet may make Mono County passes slick. * Northeast to east wind Friday night into Saturday bring rough conditions on Lake Tahoe and low wind chills on exposed Sierra peaks. Dry weather and cold nights prevail this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Storm precipitation so far: * 36-hour quantitative precipitation estimates ending 11 AM PDT shows 0.25-0.75 inch around Tahoe/Truckee, Alpine County, Carson Valley and Lovelock/Fallon, locally over 1 inch east of Fallon. Estimates are generally under 0.25 inch across eastern Plumas/Lassen counties, Surprise Valley and northern Washoe County; elsewhere, mostly 0.05-0.50 inch, including Sierra Valley, Reno-Sparks, and Lyon, Mineral and Mono counties. Snowfall reports reached 3-5 inches in the high terrain west of Mammoth Lakes. This afternoon through Friday morning: * Satellite shows the closed low lifting northeast across California, with rain bands from Tahoe/Reno to Lovelock and the Black Rock Desert. Cold air aloft supports 700-500-mb lapse rates near 6.5-7.5C/km. Residual boundary-layer moisture and any heating beneath cloud breaks favor weak instability and a 20% thunderstorm chance, with small hail, downpours and gusty outflows. * Mono County snow levels lower from 8000 to around 7500 feet this evening. Convective snow bursts support keeping the Winter Weather Advisory above 8000 feet through 5 PM, with lighter accumulations thereafter. * Upper-level divergence ahead of a 90-110 kt jet and convergence along the cold front/outflow boundaries will make rain more widespread and persistent this afternoon and tonight. Thunderstorm chances diminish this evening, but continued ascent through moist air sustains steadier, locally heavy rain. * Additional precipitation through Friday morning: 0.5-1.5 inches across northeastern Lassen County, Surprise Valley, northern Washoe County and northwestern Pershing County, locally over 2 inches possible. Expect 0.10-0.40 inch across eastern Plumas/southwestern Lassen counties, Tahoe/Truckee, Alpine County, Lovelock/Fallon and Mineral County; a few hundredths to 0.25 inch around Reno-Carson City-Minden and in Lyon/Mono counties. Locally higher totals remain possible beneath heavier showers. * A Flood Watch is in effect through 5 AM Friday for the heavier- rainfall corridor from northeastern Lassen County and Surprise Valley into northern Washoe and northwestern Pershing counties, including the Biscar and S1-Vya burn scars. Prolonged runoff threatens burn scars, rural roads and culverts. Friday through Sunday: * Cooler, drier air settles in Friday as post-frontal winds diminish. North-northwest winds will generally be 10-15 mph, with gusts to 30 mph mainly in the morning, locally 35 mph near Pyramid Lake, Fernley, Fallon and Lovelock. Winds remain light around Tahoe/Truckee during the day Friday, with northerly winds near 10 mph in Mono County by afternoon. Morning lows range from the 20s in Sierra valleys to the 30s across much of western Nevada. Highs reach the upper 40s/lower 50s in Sierra valleys and mid 50s/lower 60s in lower western Nevada valleys. * Sierra crest winds turn northeast-east Friday night into Saturday, combining with cold temperatures to produce low wind chills on exposed high higher peaks. These winds will also reach lake level, producing rough waters on Lake Tahoe. A Lake Wind Advisory has been issued from 8 PM Friday to 8 AM Saturday PDT. Clearing and lighter winds in sheltered valleys favor Friday night lows in the teens/lower 20s in Sierra valleys and 20s to near 30 from Reno-Carson City through Lovelock/Fallon. Ridging keeps the weekend dry. Monday through next Friday morning: * An early-week shortwave may brush the Oregon border, while most of northeastern California, the eastern Sierra and western Nevada remain dry through next Friday morning, October 30. CPC favors above-normal precipitation October 29-November 4, but confidence remains low in precipitation arriving before Friday morning. -Johnston && .AVIATION... KRNO... Mainly VFR; 30% chance of TSRA through 23Z with brief MVFR visibility and gusts to 35 kt. West gusts to 20 kt 23-03Z, then north winds overnight. Showers return 07-15Z with ceilings near 3500 ft AGL. Regional... SHRA/isolated TS through 00Z bring mountain obscuration, brief MVFR/IFR and outflow gusts to 35 kt. Wet ground/light winds favor KTRK IFR visibility after 07Z. For 12-15Z, 18Z LAMP gives a 40-55% chance of visibility below 1 SM if showers persist. KTVL trends MVFR after 09Z; MVFR ceilings may linger at both through late Friday morning. Weekend concerns: KTRK fog/freezing fog and Sierra crest turbulence Friday night/Saturday. -Johnston && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Flood Watch through late tonight NVZ004-005. Lake Wind Advisory from 8 PM Friday to 8 AM PDT Saturday NVZ002. CA...Flood Watch through late tonight CAZ070-071. Lake Wind Advisory from 8 PM Friday to 8 AM PDT Saturday CAZ072. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon CAZ073. && $$

744 FXUS66 KSTO 221938 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1238 PM PDT Thu Oct 22 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers, thunderstorm chances, and high elevation snow showers through this evening. Lingering mountain showers Friday morning. - Breezy north to east winds develop Friday afternoon into Saturday AM, followed by weaker downsloping winds Sat PM-Sun AM. - Dry weather continues through most of next week, with potential for unsettled weather Halloween Weekend. .DISCUSSION... ...Today through Friday AM... Cloudy skies and scattered showers are actively being observed across interior Northern California. Some isolated moderate to heavy rain will be possible at times, but precipitation will largely be light to moderate. Shower activity will gradually trend down through the afternoon hours, but a few scattered light showers may linger over the Sierra. Given the cloud cover and lack of instability as this weather system treks through Southern California, the threat for thunderstorms has largely trended down, but an isolated thunderstorm (10-15% chance) is still possible over the Sierra and Motherlode this afternoon/early evening. Forecast precipitation amounts for the remainder of the day are around 0.10 to 0.20 inches in the Valley, with higher amounts just over 0.50 inches along the Sierra. Snow levels continue to be around 8000-9000 feet in the Sierra today, with additional snowfall amounts of 1-3 inches at the highest peaks. Best chance for snow will be toward Mono county and into the Yosemite area. Minor impacts are possible at the highest elevations in Tuolumne county and toward Alpine due to the snow. Low clouds and potential for fog development in the Valley are possible tomorrow morning as well and may make the morning commute difficult at times. ...Friday (rest of the day) through Monday... Dry conditions are expected by Friday afternoon/evening, with RH values dropping to the 20 to upper teens for portions of the northern Sacramento Valley. As the trough digs into the southwestern United States and ridging develops off the NorCal coast, winds will shift out of the north in the Valley and north to east along the slopes of the Sierra. We will see gusty winds during the afternoon/evening on Friday with gust up to 35 mph within the northern Sacramento Valley for areas along and west of I-5. Areas within the mountains may see gusts up to 40 mph especially through gaps and canyons. A weaker period of downsloping winds is expected Saturday evening into Sunday morning, with gusts 20 to 30 mph. No broad/large scale fire weather concerns are anticipated given recent rainfall, but isolated fire weather concerns will be possible in places in the Sierra and Valley where little rainfall occurred. Temperatures begin to trend higher as we head into next week as ridging builds, but will remain a few degrees below normal. A few isolated showers are possible over Shasta County Sunday and Monday, but any amounts will be very light as a trough passes through the Pacific Northwest. ...Tuesday and Beyond... Dry weather continues through the rest of the work week, but there is the potential for unsettled weather as we close out October and head into November. Details are fairly uncertain since we`re so far out, but this week will be an ideal time to clear gutters and secure loose outdoor decorations and items in preparation for any additional precipitation that comes our way. && .AVIATION... Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue through the afternoon and evening hours, with localized areas of MVFR to IFR ceilings. Best timeframe for thunderstorms will be 2000z through 0400z for all sites with a 10-15% chance of occurrence. Winds will remain light throughout the day outside of erratic winds near thunderstorms. After 06z Friday, showers linger over the Sierra into Friday 18z and fog and stratus in the Valley overnight after 09z Friday with lowered ceilings as low as IFR to LIFR ceilings. Snow levels 7500-8500 feet until lowering after 12z Friday to around 6000-8000 feet. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

677 FXUS65 KMSO 221848 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1248 PM MDT Thu Oct 22 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Change to more typical fall weather coming Friday. Temperatures warm yet again towards late summer levels, however satellite clearly shows clouds moving up from the south. Showers develop this evening from south to north. A few thunderstorms will also be possible in Idaho and Lemhi Counties. For most locations at least a tenth of an inch of rain is likely, in northwest MT precipitation will be showery along the front and there is a 40 to 60% chance of receiving up to a tenth. After a fairly dry start to October, from Lost Trail Pass through southwest MT there is a 70 to 90% chance of receiving up to 1/2 of an inch of total precipitation by Friday evening. Above 6000 feet, as precipitation is ending a change over to snow is possible with a slushy trace to 3 inches in accumulations at locations like Georgetown Lake and Homestake and MacDonald Passes. Due to the timing of snow around rush hour Friday evening a winter weather advisory has been issued for the potential of slick driving conditions. The models continue to have significant uncertainty after day 3 (Sunday). What is clear is temperatures will catch up to the calendar and October temperatures arrive. High temperatures are expected to be in the 50s for western MT and 60s for north-central ID, while low temperatures routinely fall into the teens and 20s in MT. Weather systems are less clear but there are more solutions depicting a system by mid-week. More details to come. && .AVIATION...A low pressure system will move northward into the Great Basin this afternoon, sending atmospheric moisture and instability northward. This will set the stage for numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms across north-central Idaho and southwest Montana by mid-afternoon through the evening hours. Precipitation becomes more widespread after 23/0600z, with periods of lowered visibility and ceilings expected through 23/1800z. Freezing levels will lower to around 5000 feet Friday evening, and while no impacts are expected, precipitation may end as wet snow at KBTM. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Friday to midnight MDT Friday night for Butte/Blackfoot Region. ID...None. && $$

263 FXUS65 KBOI 230637 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 1237 AM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread precipitation through Friday morning, along with isolated to scattered thunderstorms. - Thunderstorms through this evening will be capable of producing gusty winds and brief heavy rain, and small hail in Southwest Idaho. - Windy conditions will develop late tonight and tomorrow behind a cold front, with much cooler conditions Friday and Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Saturday Night/... Issued 254 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2026 An area of showers and thunderstorms has developed across SW Idaho this afternoon, extending from the OR/ID border into s-central Idaho. The mid-level feature triggering this activity will continue northward through this evening, extending the coverage of showers/storms along its path. The showers/storms will bring gusty winds and moderate rainfall. While the severe wind threat has diminished some, stronger thunderstorms will be capable of wind gusts to 50 mph and brief heavy rain through early evening. Showers continue overnight, with a 10-15% chance of thunderstorms over portions of SW Idaho (mainly the w-central ID mtns). While the wind threat diminishes this evening, brief heavy rain will still be possible from storms overnight and the threat for flooding or debris flows on burns scars remains a risk. The surface cold front will cross the area later tonight, arriving with gusty northwest winds. Widespread gusts of 30 to 40 mph, will develop across SE Oregon and SW Idaho from the Snake Plain to the NV border. Local gusts of 45 to 55 mph will impact windier locations of Baker and northern Malheur counties through sunrise Friday. The upper low lifts to the northeast on Friday with precipitation tapering off from W-E during the afternoon. Post frontal northwest winds will remain gusty with speeds of 30-40 mph through evening. Snow levels will drop to between 4500-6000 feet over Oregon and between 6-8kft over SW Idaho as precipitations wraps up on Friday. Minor accumulations are possible over higher peaks. Saturday will see dry and cool conditions with breezy northwest winds. It could start off frosty at lower elevations, though the breezy winds could keep it localized. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/... Issued 254 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2026 A short lived high pressure system will continue to build in over the region Sunday, bringing slightly warmer temperatures and dry conditions through Monday morning. Clear skies overnight paired with the recent precipitation will allow for valley fog to form late Sunday night and again on Monday night, but it should dissipate by the late morning. A cut off low pressure system from the Gulf of Alaska will move in late Monday-early Tuesday, bringing widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures to the region. Disagreement in the timing of the low pressure system exists, with most models pushing precipitation and cooler temperatures late Monday, while a few outlier solutions delay the arrival to Tuesday morning. Current forecast favors high terrain in northeast Oregon and central Idaho for the best chance of precipitation (30-50% chance) through Thursday, with snow levels anticipated to be around 6000-7000 feet. The low will then push to the east, allowing for another ridge of high pressure to build in by Thursday, bringing another slight warming and drying trend for the region. && .AVIATION /06Z Friday through Saturday/... Issued 1157 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2026 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, then widespread rain and mountain snow after Fri/08Z through the afternoon along/behind a cold front. Conditions will deteriorate with precip and front this AM, becoming low VFR to IFR in rain/low clouds and IFR-LIFR in mtn snow. Mountains obscured. Snow levels lowering from W to E to 5k-7kft by late AM. Precip tapering from W to E Fri aftn/eve. Surface winds: E-S 5-15 kt, transitioning to W-NW 15-25 kt with gusts 25-45 kt behind cold front overnight through Fri afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 10-25 kt, transitioning to NW 15-30 kt around Fri/12Z. KBOI...Increasing rain showers overnight through morning with cold front, then tapering off from W to E Friday late afternoon. A 40% chance of MVFR/IFR due to lowering ceilings in rain between Fri/10Z-18Z, then VFR. Surface winds: SE-SW 5-10 kt, transitioning to W-NW 7-15 kt around Fri/08Z. Increasing to 10-20 kt with gusts 20-30 kt after Fri/12Z. Weekend Outlook...Improving conditions to VFR Friday night through Sunday, except patchy morning fog/low stratus Sat and Sun mornings. Surface winds: variable 5-12 kt Sat/Sun. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for IDZ013. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....SH SHORT TERM...DG LONG TERM....SA

755 FXUS65 KLKN 221936 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1236 PM PDT Thu Oct 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Periods of valley rain and mountain snow continue through Friday. * Thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening. There will also be a chance for severe thunderstorms for eastern Nevada. * Much cooler Friday and Friday night, followed by a modest warming trend and dry weather through Monday. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Large upper level closed low pressure system is now moving across California and western Nevada, and will continue to slowly make its way across the state tonight and into Friday. The closed low currently over Santa Barbara, will weaken as it moves into Nevada eventually opening up into a open trough by Friday morning. The resultant longwave trough will not be long for the world however as the energy splits the trough into two pieces by Saturday morning. One piece will form a new upper low over southern California, while the northern section lifts north into Montana. So for the rest of tonight and into Friday there will be several rounds of scattered showers and a thunderstorms with a marginal risk for a few severe thunderstorms for eastern Nevada, as the dynamic upper level lift and instability will reside over NV. As the trough moves more overhead tonight and into Friday morning cooler air aloft will try and filter in, this will take snow levels, which have been near 9000 feet for majority of time, and drop to about 7000 feet. Timing may allow for snowfall which had been restricted to the mountain summits, to reach some of the higher elevation passes. With Austin summit, Mountain City, Robinson, and Pinto as totals look to range from a trace to 0.5. However the range peaks look to see the best snow chances with up to a 18 possible above 9000 feet across central and northern NV. Rainfall amounts look to be good with this system as most location look to pick up from 0.15 to 0.75 in the valleys and passes, with up to 2.00 of liquid for the mountains through Friday afternoon. Models have been hinting at an band of enhanced precipitation may try and set up over western Humboldt county with some accumulations there reaching up to 1.50 through Friday. As of now this band look to stay just to the west over far eastern California, but will keep an eye out to see if there will be any flood potential shifts east tonight. The upper trough and new low look to push east Saturday which will allow for high pressure to quickly build in on the heels of this weeks system. Models show that this ridge will be firmly in control by Sunday, which will usher in dry quiet weather with cooler temperatures in the upper 50s to upper 60s for highs and cool nights in the upper 20s to upper 30s through next Thursday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence for the potential for several rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms starting this afternoon, and persisting on and off through Friday morning. There is moderate confidence in the probability of a few severe storms developing this afternoon across Elko and White Pine Counties, as the SPC has a marginal risk highlighted for the area, with strong outflow winds being the primary hazard with storms. There is high confidence in the return of upper ridging Saturday through Wednesday of next week which will bring quiet, dry conditions for the region. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions look to be the primary flight conditions through Saturday morning. However there will be several rounds of SHRA along with VCTS and TS tonight through Friday for all terminals as a upper level storm system passes through the area. CIGS will generally remain within VFR limits but as stronger bands of activity move through CIGS will drop to MVFR to even IFR conditions for period of time with ceilings dropping to less than 2000 feet. Thursday afternoon and evening there will be the possibility for severe thunderstorms for KEKO, KENV, and KELY as the SPC has a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms capable of producing one inch or greater hail, and wind gusts above 58 MPH. Winds outside of thunderstorms will be breezy out of the S to SW at 10KT to 25KT with gusts up to 35KT possible, Wind look to shift to out of the NW overnight into Friday morning at 10KT to 25 KT with gusts up to 25 KT possible. && .FIRE WEATHER... Showers and wet thunderstorms will continue to suppress fire weather concerns. Activity is expected to peak today before wrapping up by tomorrow night. Elevated winds will also be a factor across the area, with southerly winds today, becoming north/northwesterly tomorrow and tomorrow afternoon. Dry weather is expected to prevail beginning Saturday. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...98 AVIATION...98 FIRE WEATHER...94