833 FXUS66 KSEW 252203 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 303 PM PDT Mon May 25 2026 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal system has arrived this afternoon which will continue to bring rain, breezy winds, heightened marine activity, and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Unsettled and showery conditions will continue into Tuesday and Wednesday, before high pressure rebuilds later in the week for dry and warm conditions. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Recent radar imagery shows a front moving through the Southwest Interior through Puget Sound this afternoon with mostly light rain falling in these locations, with some convective showers along the coast. Expect this front to move eastward with post frontal showers in its wake for the remainder of the Memorial Day evening. Winds will remain breezy for most of the day for interior locations, with the strongest winds along the coast seeing anywhere with gusts up to 35 to 40 mph. High temperatures have cooled significantly than previous days, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Unseasonably large wave are on track to arrive along the coast later today, which will continue into Tuesday with waves between 14 to 16 feet. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for these conditions Conditions will remain unsettled into Tuesday with an unstable airmass. Can expect scattered showers throughout most of the region with a slight chance for thunderstorms once again, but locations have been trimmed back, so the most likely locations to see any sort of isolated thunder is areas south of the Sound (mainly Lewis county) during the afternoon and evening hours. Conditions remain the same into Wednesday, with isolated chances of thunder possible for all areas of western Washington. High temps will warm into the low 70s on Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Ensemble guidance shows split flow regime which slowly transitions into weak high pressure building back into the region midweek. Temperatures will warm on Thursday into the upper 70s. Guidance then suggests weak troughing over the area later into the week and into the weekend which will cool temperatures down into the low 60s and may bring some showers into the mountains. Long period swell looks to also arrive to the coast on Thursday, which will pose a bigger threat for significant wave runup on coastal beaches as well as the potential for minor erosion. Mazurkiewicz && .AVIATION... Southwesterly flow aloft this afternoon will gradually transition to more northerly by Tuesday morning as an upper level low drops southward across the region. A frontal system continues to push across the interior this afternoon, with latest radar showing the more widespread rain currently moving across the Sound. Cigs have been slow to come down across the interior, with most Puget Sound terminals still reporting VFR conditions this afternoon. Expect cigs to gradually continue to lower, but remain VFR through the evening hours. Cigs and visibilities may temporarily drop to MVFR at times through this evening in any steadier rain, but expect more widespread MVFR ceilings to develop across the area overnight into Tuesday morning. Southerly winds generally persist at 8-12 kt this afternoon and have been gusty to 25-30 kt for terminals from KPAE northward. Gusts to 20-25 kt will still be possible for central and south Sound terminals as the front moves through. Expect winds to subside again tonight into early Tuesday. Winds will then switch to the north between 16-18Z Tuesday and persist between 4-7 kt. KSEA...VFR cigs continue for the terminal this afternoon in rain. Cigs and visibilities could briefly drop to MVFR this afternoon and evening as the steadier rain associated with the front moves through. Otherwise, expect predominantly VFR cigs to persist through tonight, with a lowering towards MVFR expected into Tuesday morning. Southwest winds persist at 8-12 kt this afternoon and could be gusty to 20-25 kt at times into this evening. Southwesterly winds will ease tonight into the overnight period and transition to the north at 3-7 kt between 16-18Z. 14 && .MARINE... A low pressure system will move across the waters today as a cold front continues to push inland across the area. Southerly winds have become gusty across the interior waters this afternoon as the front makes its way through, while winds across the coastal waters have eased back to 10-20 kt. Widespread Small Craft Advisory southerly winds have been observed across the majority of the interior waters, with some brief gale force wind gusts over portions of the eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca and Northern Inland Waters. Winds will ease in the wake of the front this evening into early Tuesday. High pressure will then quickly rebuild into the coastal waters on Tuesday, allowing for winds to transition to more north/northwesterly by Tuesday afternoon. SCA northwesterly wind gusts are expected at times through much of the week for the outer Coastal Waters. Additional systems may move across the waters late in the week, bringing additional rounds of building seas and increasing onshore flow. Onshore flow looks to gradually increase Thursday through late week, with SCA winds (to gale gusts) expected along the Strait late Thursday into Friday. An even stronger push on Friday then looks to bring more widespread gales to the central and east Strait. Seas over the coastal waters around 10-12 ft this afternoon will continue to build towards 12-16 feet late today into early Tuesday. Seas will slowly subside again through the day on Tuesday, but look to remain elevated to around 10 ft through much of the week. With the transition back to northwesterly winds, steep seas will also return to the coastal waters late Tuesday into Wednesday as the predominant wave group`s period becomes 10 seconds. The arrival of a 7-10 ft long period swell with a period of 15-18 seconds on Thursday will help build significant wave heights back up to 10-13 ft. Seas will then slowly subside again towards 10 ft Friday into the weekend. 14 && .HYDROLOGY... The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the start of the next rainy season; it will only be updated during this time as needed. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...High Surf Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to noon PDT Tuesday for Grays Harbor County Coast-Northern Washington Coast. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Tuesday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-Grays Harbor Bar. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for Admiralty Inlet-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands-Puget Sound and Hood Canal. && $$

789 FXUS66 KPQR 252054 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 154 PM PDT Mon May 25 2026 .SYNOPSIS...A cold front moving through the area will bring widespread rain early this afternoon. Rain transitions to showers late this afternoon/evening with a 10-20% chance for thunderstorms. Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue on Tuesday. Warmer and drier conditions return Wednesday to Thursday, but wrap-around moisture will return chances for showers across the Cascades on Thursday and Friday. Cooler temperatures return at the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Sunday...Radar, satellite, and surface observations as of early Monday afternoon depicts widespread rain along the coast and Coast Range as a cold front associated with an upper-level trough pushes through the area. Between now and 3 PM, this band of rain should spread into the I-5 corridor as the front pushes further inland. Rainfall amounts will be light and non-impactful, while southerly to southwesterly winds will be breezy as the front pushes through. Surface observations were showing wind gusts up to 30 mph along the coast. As this front moves inland, expect wind gusts to increase up to 20-25 mph along the I-5 corridor, and stronger gusts up to 30-40 mph through the central Columbia River Gorge, Upper Hood River Valley, and higher terrain across the Cascades. After 2-4 PM today, rain transitions to post-frontal showers as the front exits eastward. Cooler air filtering in aloft with the incoming trough will lead to increased instability across the area. Based on REFS guidance and sounding profiles, CAPE appears limited (50-110 J/kg) this evening with the highest CAPE values along the coast. Therefore, there is a 10-20% chance for thunderstorms through this evening, with the highest chances along the north OR/south WA coast, inland southwest Washington, and the Portland/Vancouver Metro Area. Any passing thunderstorms may produce lightning, brief heavy downpours, erratic winds, and/or small hail. Cool and showery conditions prevail on Tuesday as the upper- level trough turns into a closed low over Oregon and gradually shifts southward toward California/Nevada. Will see another 10-20% chance for thunderstorms on Tuesday, mainly between 11 AM-5 PM. Chances are better along the I-5 corridor for thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon compared to this afternoon as CAPE values are forecast higher around 100-200 J/kg. Temperatures rebound Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure re- builds over the area and the aforementioned low drops down into the Great Basin. High temperatures are forecast near or slightly above normal along the I-5 corridor for this time of year, warmest from the Portland/Vancouver Metro northward. Chances for exceeding 80 degrees across the Portland/Vancouver Metro on Wednesday are around 15-25%, and 30-50% on Thursday. The rest of the interior valleys have a 20-30% chance for exceeding 80 degrees on Thursday. While Wednesday remains predominately dry and warm, will note that wrap-around moisture will result in a 30-50% chance for showers and a 10-20% chance for thunderstorms across the Cascades on Thursday. Areas west of the Cascades still trend dry on Thursday, but can`t rule out a stray shower or two moving into the I-5 corridor. If shower or thunderstorm coverage is more widespread, cloud cover could result in slightly cooler temperatures (lower 70s as opposed to upper 70s and low 80s across interior valleys). Friday into the weekend, temperatures cool down as ensemble guidance suggests another trough moving in from the northeast Pacific and lowering 500 mb heights. Chances for showers remain on Friday due to lingering wrap-around moisture from the Great Basin low, however, conditions dry out over the weekend due to limited moisture despite the troughing. -10 && On a slightly personal note, with Monday being Memorial Day, it is time to remember those who served that are no longer with us. I want to remind everyone that if you are a fellow veteran or know a veteran that needs help, you can always call the VA Crisis Line by dialing 988 and pressing 1 or text 838255 24/7/365. We must take care of and look out those who stood besides us, who came before us and who will follow in our footsteps. Semper Fi. /42 && .AVIATION...MVFR along the coast and VFR inland as a cold front continues to move inland. Light rain continues to move inland while transitioning to showers along the coast. Conditions should maintain low-end VFR for the most part, possible high- end MVFR in a heavier band of rain. Mix of south and southwesterly winds expected through the TAF period. Expect continued winds around 14-17 kt with gusts up to 20-25 kt at the coast until 03-06Z Tue, while inland will see winds increase to around 10-14 kt with gusts up to 20 kt through 03Z Tue. Additionally, there is a 15-30% chance of isolated thunderstorms through the evening, with most terminals at the low end of this probability range. Expect an isolated thunderstorm or two rather than widespread thunderstorms with this system. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Expect VFR conditions through the TAF period with CIGs dropping closer to 5 kft this afternoon. Southerly winds will increase with gusts up to 20 kt through 03Z Tue. There is a 20-40% chance of MVFR CIGs with any passing shower today. Rain in the area with gusty winds may temporarily reduce VIS at times. 15-20% chance of isolated thunderstorms through the evening. -19 && .MARINE...A cold front continues to move east of the waters, leading to decreasing southerly winds through the day. Small Craft Advisories continue across all waters for steep and hazardous seas hazardous to small craft through 5 PM. A Westerly swell moves into the waters later this afternoon and evening, pushing seas in the mid teens around 14-16 seconds. Have upgraded the Hazardous Seas Watch to a Warning for all waters except the Columbia River Bar where conditions are more marginal. The Warning continues through 11 AM Tuesday and at the same time, the Small Craft Advisory for the Columbia River Bar has been extended for the same time frame. There is a 10-20% chance for thunderstorms across the waters this evening. Any passing thunderstorms may produce lightning, brief heavy downpours that reduce visibility, erratic winds, and/or small hail.Seas subside to 10-12 ft by Tuesday evening and gradually subside into Wednesday. -19 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ210. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ251>253-271>273. Hazardous Seas Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ251>253-271>273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

550 FXUS66 KMFR 260003 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 503 PM PDT Mon May 25 2026 ...Aviation Discussion Updated... .DISCUSSION... Key Points: * Strong southwest to west winds will be present through this evening. A Wind Advisory is in effect for Lake County through 9 PM for Lake County and the Rogue Valley. 10-20% RH values will remain this afternoon. * The next low is arriving today, and rain will continue to move inland. * The low will keep shower chances Tuesday, first west of the Cascades, and then in most areas. Satellite shows more cumulus clouds across areas west of the Cascades with marine stratus holding along the coast down through Curry County into Brookings. The next cold front is arriving today, and shower activity has begun at the coast. This line of showers will move inland through the next few hours before starting to fall apart as it gets closer to the Cascades. Rainfall will focus on the coast and Cascades through this evening, and ~0.25" is forecast for the coast with ~0.10"-0.20" near Crater Lake and north through the rest of today. Gusty winds are being reported at the coast and will continue through the late evening. There is a Wind Advisory for most of Lake County including Summer Lake, Fort Rock, and Valley Falls and the Rogue Valley. These winds will start to weaken later this evening. Please see NPWMFR for more information. Overnight, the showers will become more scattered. Coverage will be best east of the Cascades, and overnight there is a 60-80% probability to have a wetting rain by 7 AM Tuesday in Lake and eastern Klamath counties. However, showers west of the Cascades could drop moderate rain at times. Another thing to keep in mind is that snow levels will fall to the 4,500`-5,000` tonight which brings the potential for a few flakes along the Cascades and higher east. Overall, from 11 AM today through Wednesday at 11 AM, near 0.25"- 0.50" of rain could fall at the coast with near 0.10"-0.25" east of the Cascades. Forecast CAPEs values increase Tuesday afternoon, especially east of the Cascades and in Modoc County. There is a 15-20% chance for a thunderstorm in these locations. The upper low will be moving south Tuesday, and with this track wraparound showers will be present through the day Tuesday. Tuesday evening and overnight the showers move across the area with more coverage, although they will be light. Getting back to the temperatures, today was the beginning of a 2-day cooldown. Today`s temperatures will be near normal. Tomorrow another drop brings highs to 10-15 degrees below normal, 50s/low 60s. The low will continue stalling in the area, leaving us with wraparound showers, cloudier skies and below normal temps through at least Wednesday. For now, the low is forecast to move south Thursday, and temperatures will return to normal or warmer. -Hermansen && .AVIATION...26/00Z TAFS...An approaching cold front will bring strong, gusty westerly winds this afternoon and evening. Winds will be strongest east of the Cascades (gusts 30 to 45 kt), and also in the Rogue Valley and Siskiyou County with gusts of around 25 to 45 kt (and locally 50-60 kt) expected. Localized IFR/MVFR visibilities are also expected through 04z across northern Lake County (north of Lakeview) due to blowing dust. MVFR and local IFR will continue at the coast with rain showers this evening. As rain spreads inland this evening and tonight evening, expect mountain obscurations, and lowering ceilings with areas of MVFR, mainly from the Cascades west. These conditions will persist into Tuesday morning, then gradually improve in the late morning and afternoon to VFR with areas of higher mountain obscurations. && .MARINE...Updated 230 PM PDT Monday, May 25, 2026...The two main changes this afternoon were to upgrade to a hazardous seas warning for the outer waters beyond 40 nm from shore during Tuesday, and extend a Small Craft Advisory through Wednesday and Wednesday night (excepting the inner waters north of Cape Blanco where steep seas will still end early Wednesday morning). A cold front will continue through the waters during the remainder of this afternoon bringing rain and increasing seas. Seas have become steep again, with the strongest south winds occurring north of Cape Blanco. Steep, northwest swell builds in strongly behind the front, reaching a peak on Tuesday. These west-northwest swell dominated seas are expected to peak at around 13 to 18 ft at 14 seconds. Diminishing seas are expected to remain steep Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. After brief, slight improvement, high pressure offshore and lingering low pressure inland will again bring increasing north winds on Wednesday afternoon with the strongest winds likely to occur south of Gold Beach. The gusty north winds and a long period west-northwest swell will continue steep seas Wednesday night, and possibly during Thursday and Thursday night also. Conditions may briefly improve on Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Updated 230 PM PDT Monday, May 25, 2026...Elevated to critical fire weather risk today into this evening due to a combination of strong, gusty winds and low relative humidity. A cold front will move onshore today. Strong, gusty S-SW winds (20-30 mph) will develop in advance of the front this afternoon/evening east of the Cascades and in portions of northern California, where gusts of 35-40 mph will be common, even up to 45 mph in some areas of Lake/Modoc counties. Afternoon humidity in these areas could drop to 10-20% for at least a few hours and fuels there are dry enough that if ignitions were to occur, fire would be able to spread rapidly. As such, a Red Flag Warning is in effect from 1-11 pm PDT for southeastern Modoc County in California and from 1-8 pm PDT for most of Lake County in Oregon. Fire conditions are also elevated in areas where it turns breezy/windy this afternoon, but fuel receptiveness is still on the moderate side and humidity levels are just a bit high to warrant additional fire weather headlines. There is also a Wind Advisory through 7 PM for the Rogue Valley with gusts in the 40-45 mph range. Models are showing a substantial increase in humidity and the potential for wetting rainfall, especially east of the Cascades for the rest of the week (Tue-Fri). As such, fire danger should lower significantly in the coming days. -Spilde && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ625. High Wind Warning until 7 PM PDT this evening for ORZ026. Wind Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for ORZ031. Blowing Dust Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for ORZ031. CA...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ285. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ356-370-376. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ350. Hazardous Seas Warning from 5 AM to 5 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ370- 376. && $$

340 FXUS66 KEKA 252231 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 331 PM PDT Mon May 25 2026 .SYNOPSIS...A cold front approaches the area late this afternoon and evening bringing light rain and cooler temperatures with gusty winds. Shower activity and chances for thunderstorms increase Tuesday and again on Thursday. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Light to locally moderate showers this evening through Tuesday. - Breezy west-northwest winds return this evening across the interior exposed ridges and channeled terrain. - Enhanced northwest winds with gusts from 25 to 35 mph across the exposed ridges and channeled terrain Tuesday into Wednesday, shifting to the coastal headlands Wednesday afternoon. - A slight chance (10-20%) of thunderstorms are possible for the interior in Del Norte, Humboldt and Trinity counties. - Increasing chance (15-25%) of thunderstorms in northern Trinity County on Thursday. && .DISCUSSION...An approaching cold front will bring light rain or sprinkles this afternoon and evening across Del Norte, Humboldt, western Trinity and northern Mendocino counties. Mostly dry weather is expected to prevail for southern Mendocino and Lake counties. Breezy west-southwest winds are expected over the exposed ridges and channeled terrain late this afternoon, shifting to westerly this evening in the wake of the front. An upper-level trough center off British Columbia will continue to digging southward and approaching the area, before evolve into a closed low over Northern California and Oregon on Tuesday. This will bring continued shower activity through Tuesday night. Colder air aloft will bring some shallow instability Tuesday morning, capable of produce brief heavy downpours and a slight chance (10-20%) of thunderstorms in Del Norte, Humboldt and northern Trinity counties. Rainfall total amounts forecast up to 0.30 inches for Del Norte and farther northern Humboldt, while few hundredths to 0.25 inches for Humboldt County. Very little rain is expected to make it farther south or east with Trinity and northern Mendocino counties only expected to see a trace to a few hundredths of an inch. Breezy west to northwest winds are expected to increase along the coast and interior ridges Tuesday and Wednesday as the low drive southward across the interior. Gusts from 25 to 35 mph are most likely, with locally up to around 40 mph possible Tuesday into Wednesday across the interior exposed ridges and channeled terrain. Then shifting along the coast on Wednesday, with north- northwest gusts of 25 to 35 mph over the coastal and exposed ridges. Thursday, the back side of the closed low will promote an increasing chance of convective showers and thunderstorms. There is a 15-25% chance of thunderstorms across the interior on Thursday, with the highest chance over the northern Trinity County. Ensembles and deterministic model guidances suggest a weak shortwave ridge building briefly filtering dry air across the area. High temperatures are expected to increase and become more seasonably for this time of the year. A series of shortwave trough may bring an increasing cloudiness and some isolated mountain showers this weekend. /ZVS && .AVIATION...A thick marine layer has maintained mostly IFR to MVFR conditions through the day. An approaching cold front has generated some gusty south and west winds this afternoon and has helped lift the marine layer to at least inconsistent MVFR ceilings. Conditions will remain mixed through the evening as the front passes the area. Predominately MVFR conditions will persist overnight, but some period of IFR are likely alongside light rain. Such conditions are most likely between about 5 pm and midnight. Lingering instability and drier air behind the front will most likely help scatter the marine layer, but mid level clouds spread across the area will continue to maintain MVFR to VFR ceilings through Tuesday. /JHW && .MARINE...A weak cold front is currently crossing the area. This has brought gentle to moderate southerly winds across the waters. Moderate to strong northwest winds will begin to build behind the front with frequent gusts over 21 kts in the outer waters by early Thursday. Do to the systems long travel tome over the Eastern PAcific, steep short period seas up to 14 feet at 13 seconds will build throughout the waters even as winds continue to ramp up. This is particularly notable for the inner waters where steep seas will build before wind even begin gusting over 21 kts on Tuesday morning. Moderate north winds will persist during the day Tuesday before strengthening and pushing closer to shore late Tuesday afternoon and evening. Steep short period seas will persist during this time. North winds will peak around Wednesday with near gale for gusts in the outer waters, particularly the southern outer waters. Calmer conditions will gradually arrive late week. /JHW && .BEACH HAZARDS...Steep mid to short period seas will begin to build in Monday night and into Tuesday. Steep sea will precede stronger north winds on area beaches, particularly those in Humboldt and Del Norte County. Sea build over 12 feet at 14 seconds early Tuesday may provide for some moderate sneaker wave conditions before north winds also push into the inner waters Tuesday evening. /JHW && .FIRE WEATHER...Breezy NW winds with gusts from 25 to 35 mph is expected Tuesday night through Wednesday over the exposed ridges and channeled terrain across the interior, then shifting to the coastal headlands Wednesday afternoon. Enhanced fire weather threat exists for zones 418 and 421 due to gusts up to 40 mph and low daytime RH values around 35 percent and overnight recovery values around 70 percent. Winds are the expecetd to diminish throughout the day on Wednesday for the interior. /ZVS && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ450-455-470-475. Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through late Wednesday night for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

393 FXUS66 KMTR 252345 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 445 PM PDT Mon May 25 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1224 PM PDT Mon May 25 2026 - Cooler Conditions Continue into Tuesday - Cloudy and drizzly to start Tuesday with building winds. - Widespread warming and drying starts Wednesday and continues into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1224 PM PDT Mon May 25 2026 (This evening through Tuesday) The marine layer continues to stay strong with the day starting off with nearly widespread lower clouds. A good amount of drizzle has been reported across the North Bay, but chances have reduced into the late morning. Higher clouds are also moving into the area, which could limit the erosion of the lower clouds, leading to cooler conditions. Expect the coast to remain cool under cloudy skies with highs in the 50s. Then the areas slightly inland will hover around the mid to lower 60s, and the far interior will be in the 70s with possibly one or two spots breaking 80 degrees in southern Monterey Co. Overnight will begin the next pattern change as a cold front begins to pass through the area a low pressure following close behind. This will cause most of the region to see the coolest high temperatures and cloudiest skies of the forecast. The rush of cooler air along the front will off good chances for drizzle across much of the Bay Area and Central Coast, with the best chances being along coastal peaks. While overall precip chances look good, the overall totals look to stay below just a few hundredths of an inch. Winds will be breezy and gusty across much of the CWA during this pattern change, with the higher elevations and favored gaps and passes seeing chances for gusts peaking around 45 mph. The forecast continues to show the front exiting the North Bay early enough in day( and northerly dry winds around the low) for some slight and isolated warming compared to previous days, while the rest of the region remains cool. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1224 PM PDT Mon May 25 2026 (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Cloud cover erodes Tuesday evening as northerly winds build across the region in the post-fontal environment and the parent low pressure pushes east. Winds decrease into the night, but remain northerly. The drier airmass arriving to the region will allow for widespread lows into the 40s for Wednesday Morning, making it the coolest morning of the forecast. Models hint at a weak marine layer reforming as winds reduce, but it looks to not be as moisture rich as the last few days and barely moves inland. From there, the models are in fair agreement over another warming and drying trend as a modest offshore flow develops as the low travels to the east. High temperatures see a notable rebound for Wednesday as skies remain on the clearer side, with temperatures steadily warming into the weekend. However, the weekend itself has a wide range of potential pattern change across models and ensembles. While some keep the warming trend and offshore flow due to modest ridging, others hint at a more zonal (west to east) flow developing and pushing onshore flow at the surface. The current forecast leans on the continued warming trend model outputs, but that can change quite a bit as new model runs publish and higher resolution models come into range. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 444 PM PDT Mon May 25 2026 A cold front associated with a low pressure system to our north will move through the Bay Area and Central Coast overnight into tomorrow morning. This will bring a chance for drizzle to coastal sites with some high res models suggesting some potential for light rain along the coast tonight. Winds remain breezy overnight with gusts between 20-25 knots overnight. Winds are expected to strengthen in the wake of frontal passage with widespread northwest gusts between 25 to 35 knots Tuesday morning into the evening. CIGs are expected to lower overnight but will rise/dissipate after frontal passage occurs. For the Bay Area CIGs clear around 10-12Z while CIGs clear closer to 14/15Z for the Central Coast. Vicinity of SFO...Gusts up to 30 knots are expected to continue into this evening before winds ease slightly overnight. MVFR CIGs are expected to filter in late this evening before dissipating around 10Z after cold frontal passage. Gusts strengthen again tomorrow with gusts in excess of 35 knots becoming likely after 18Z and continuing through late Tuesday. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR conditions have already reached MRY and SNS. CIGs are expected to continue through 14/15Z when cold frontal passage occurs and cloud cover is expected to dissipate. Winds remain breezy overnight and will strengthen further Tuesday morning into the evening. Northwest gusts between 25 to 30 knots are likely at MRY and SNS during the afternoon and evening hours. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 444 PM PDT Mon May 25 2026 West to northwest breezes become moderate to fresh northwest winds with a cold front passing by tonight and Tuesday. Strong and gusty northwest winds developing over the coastal waters Tuesday with gusty afternoon winds also developing over the bays. Expect building rough seas Tuesday and Wednesday, which look to last through the week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning for CAZ006-505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Mry Bay- Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Gale Warning from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Gale Warning from 9 AM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Murdock LONG TERM....Murdock AVIATION...Kennedy MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

257 FXUS66 KOTX 252324 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 424 PM PDT Mon May 25 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold front on Monday will bring isolated thunderstorms to eastern Washington and north Idaho for the late afternoon and evening hours. A few storms may become strong in the Idaho Panhandle producing hail up to the size of nickles and wind gusts up to 60 mph. - Strong winds arrive late afternoon and evening with a cold front passage. - There is a continued threat for thunderstorms Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Some thunderstorms may be strong with a risk for hail, gusty outflow winds, and heavy downpours. && .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will enter Central WA late Monday afternoon and Idaho Monday evening delivering a burst of strong winds. The cold front will also bring showers with a chance for thunderstorms especially in the Idaho Panhandle. Cooler temperatures Tuesday with showers. Widely scattered showers with the potential for thunderstorms Wednesday into Friday. Friday will also be breezy to windy and cooling to near normal into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Rest of today into Monday night: A deep trough of low pressure is stretching down the west coast of Washington and Oregon. The atmospheric "pump" is currently being primed for widely scattered showers with a 20-30% chance for thunderstorms for late this afternoon and evening over the eastern third of the forecast area. Dew point temperatures are steadily increasing into the lower 50s over the Camas Prairie and into the mid 40s into the Central Panhandle Mountains. Surface temperatures warming into the upper 70s to near 80 degrees with cooling taking place aloft is steepening mid level lapse rates. Surface air parcels still need to break through roughly 25-50 J/kg of CIN, but that is expected to take place with the cold front passage between 4-8 PM this evening. The 19Z RAP model indicates some hefty surface based CAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE from the Camas Prairie and southern Idaho Panhandle into the Central Panhandle Mountains. There should be enough dynamics along the cold front to tap into this instability and see deep convection develop in an environment with 40-60 kts of 0-6 km shear. The ingredient look to come into line for a 2-4 hour window of organized convection and potential supercells capable of producing wind gusts of 60+ mph and hail up to the size of quarters. There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms to the Canadian border across the Idaho Panhandle, but instability parameters aren`t as favorable north of I-90. Showers will also develop further west across eastern Washington with the mid level front, but the surface front will cool off lower levels that with much less instability to work with. Showers will bring a shot of some rain and the mid level front will stall out resulting in continued shower develop into the night. Most areas will see up to an tenth of an inch of total rainfall, but I don`t expect much more than that as showers then dwindle down by the morning on Tuesday. The cold front will also bring a burst of moderately strong wind gusts up to around 25-35 mph across much of the exposed areas of the Columbia Basin. Winds are expected to be a bit stronger over Alpowa Pass with gusts up to 40-45 mph expected. Winds may bring a brief period of blowing dust over the Palouse this evening. This will be dependent on how much rain comes with showers and/or thunderstorms before winds increase with the front. Temperatures will cool off tonight and snow levels dropping over the Cascades. Light snow may be experienced at higher elevations in the Cascades. Outdoor recreationists should be prepared for the cold weather tonight into Tuesday if going out into the backcountry, especially if planning to camp at higher elevations. Tuesday through Friday: The upper level low becomes cut off from the Polar Jet by Wednesday into Thursday. Model ensembles are in good agreement that the low will take up residence over western Nevada. This is just far south enough for temperatures to rebound after a cool Tuesday with highs in the 60s back up into the 80s by Thursday. The warm above normal temperatures will result in an unstable atmosphere with CAPEs once again up to around 1000 to 1500 J/kg by Thursday. Only by then, much more of the Inland Northwest will be unstable. The low will be positioned in such a way that it will draw moisture in from the east with origins tracing all the way over to the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. This is typically a much juicer source of moisture and models reflect this with widespread surface dew points into the upper 50s to around 60 regionwide. Where the uncertainty lies is where will the lift come from to kick off convection? Shortwaves rounding the low will bring the potential to kick off convection and will depend on the timing of these disturbances. The general consensus is that convection will fire off east of the region on Tuesday and begin to drift over the Idaho Panhandle late in the day. Then the chances get higher and higher Wednesday into Thursday. Convection is expected to fire over the the Idaho Panhandle on Wednesday, and then the potential spreads further west more across eastern Washington on Thursday. This convection will be working with P-wats near to or over an inch. Thunderstorms that develop Wednesday into Thursday will be slower moving as well and the threat for localized flooding or flash flooding will be a growing concern, especially for urban areas and areas in steep terrain or near burn scars. A shortwave push across the eastern Pacific on Friday will kick out the cut off low. Additional showers and thunderstorms can be expected then. There will be more steering flow which will help with reducing the flash flood threat, but storms will still contain very heavy rain. A cold front will also bring breezy to windy conditions across the region on Friday with gusts potentially as strong as 40- 45 mph through the Cascades and out into the Columbia Basin. Friday night through Monday: Next weekend looks to bring more benign weather. We will continue to see some showers with a 10-30 percent chance. Doesn`t look nearly as unstable with the cold front on Friday ejecting out the juicy mid Atlantic P-Wat air. Temperatures cool to around normal with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s. A ridge of higher pressure nudging in for Monday looks to warm temperatures further with highs returning to the mid 70s and low 80s. /SVH && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFs: DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION MONDAY, GUSTY WINDS IN THE EVENING, AND LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT A cold front will move through this evening. Showers with thunderstorms in the Idaho Pahandle will form ahead of the front. The threat of thunderstorms will continue through 05Z. Main threats associated with these storms will be strong outflow winds, hail, and frequent lightning. KLWS to KPUW will see the best chances for thunderstorms at 20-30% chance decreasing to 15-20% chance from KGEG to KSZT. Rain showers will also develop over the Cascades into the western Columbia Basin closer to the advancing cold front boundary with light rain at KEAT/KOMK/KEPH/KMWH. The surface front pushes through from west to east between 02-07Z. This will bring a period of gusty westerly winds. Strongest winds are expected at KGEG/KPUW/KLWS with gusts up to 25-35 kts. A moistening boundary layer overnight will increase the potential for low stratus cover with widespread MVFR ceilings by 10-12Z and continuing through the morning on Tuesday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is a considerable amount of uncertainty with the potential for thunderstorms and associated impacts; however, the ingredients are present for thunderstorms that develop near KLWS and KPUW to become strong with a 5% chance of becoming severe and producing wind gusts up to 60 mph; and large hail up to the size of quarters also cannot be ruled out. Confidence is high for low stratus and MVFR conditions tonight into Tuesday morning after 10Z at KLWS/KPUW/KGEG/KSFF/KCOE. There is a 15% chance for ceilings below 1,000 ft agl and IFR conditions. /SVH ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 47 66 47 79 52 85 / 40 20 30 10 20 10 Coeur d`Alene 50 65 49 78 54 85 / 60 20 50 20 20 10 Pullman 44 58 43 72 49 80 / 60 20 30 10 20 30 Lewiston 51 63 50 77 54 85 / 70 30 50 10 30 40 Colville 44 72 44 84 48 88 / 60 40 50 20 20 10 Sandpoint 48 67 48 79 52 85 / 70 40 60 30 20 10 Kellogg 48 64 48 80 53 87 / 70 50 60 30 30 30 Moses Lake 44 68 46 84 52 88 / 80 10 20 10 10 10 Wenatchee 50 67 53 83 59 87 / 60 10 10 10 10 20 Omak 49 70 52 85 56 88 / 80 50 10 20 20 10 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

128 FXUS66 KPDT 252335 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 435 PM PDT Mon May 25 2026 .Updated Aviation Discussion. .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy to windy conditions through this evening. - Increasing precipitation chances later this afternoon/evening as a cold front moves across the region. - Shower and thunderstorm chances continue for the next few days with drier conditions for the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... An upper low and cold front will move across the Pacific Northwest today. The upper low will then gradually move south into California over the next few days. However, the larger cyclonic circulation associated with the broader trough will remain over the Pacific Northwest through Thursday. The low is then forecast to move northward and weaken, and be absorbed into a drier southwesterly flow between a ridge over the midsection of the country and a low well of the coast by later Friday into the weekend. As the low and cold front move across the region today, gusty winds are expected. A wind advisory has been issued for portions of the area. Even in locations not under the wind advisory, breezy conditions are anticipated. The combination of breezy to windy conditions and low relative humidities will bring enhanced fire weather concerns, everywhere, but especially across central Oregon and the John Day Highlands, where RH values are lowest. Shoer chances will increase from west to east late this afternoon into this evening and overnight as the front moves through. The best (albeit low) chance for thunderstorms is in far eastern Oregon. On Tuesday, the low will be over the region, beginning to move south. As with any upper low, there is instability for thunderstorms and the best chances (<15%) look to be over central Oregon. After Tuesday night, low rain chances will continue mainly over the mountains Wednesday, then increase again Thursday into Friday as the low treks north. Once again, due to the proximity of the upper low there will be at least some thunderstorm potential. Will have to see how this develops through the week. Beyond late Friday a drier pattern then moves in for the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions currently across all sites, which will stay the course through the period. Widespread wind gusts of 25-35kts will continue through this evening, with light rain also passing associated with a cold front. Winds will stay elevated before slowly subsiding this evening into the overnight period. Clouds will increase and ceilings will drop to 5kft as the system passes this this evening, continuing through the remainder of the period. 75 && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 43 61 45 73 / 90 50 60 10 ALW 47 61 48 75 / 70 60 60 0 PSC 44 68 46 81 / 70 20 40 0 YKM 45 69 48 85 / 30 0 10 0 HRI 44 65 46 78 / 80 20 40 10 ELN 41 63 45 80 / 40 10 10 0 RDM 33 59 35 71 / 30 20 40 20 LGD 41 54 43 73 / 70 90 80 20 GCD 38 55 39 72 / 90 70 90 40 DLS 45 69 50 81 / 20 10 10 10 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for WAZ024-027-521. OR...Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ041-510-511. && $$ DISCUSSION...77 AVIATION...75

315 FXUS65 KREV 252201 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 301 PM PDT Mon May 25 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Warmer than average temperatures persist today, then much cooler conditions are expected from Tuesday through late week. * Gusty winds will bring aviation, recreation, and fire weather concerns today and Tuesday. * Shower and isolated thunderstorm chances forecast today, but return on Tuesday with the highest overall chances Wednesday through Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... The latest RAP analysis of the upper air pattern shows an upper low off the coast of southern BC today. Model guidance projects this low tracking down to over the WA coast late today. At the surface, models are showing a tightening pressure gradient through the day ahead of an approaching cold front currently near the WA/OR coast. This means that increased winds will be responsible for some concerns in the CWA today. The forecast is showing west to southwest winds picking up in the afternoon in NE CA and NW NV with gusts up to around 40-45 mph. Lake Wind Advisories (including Lake Tahoe and Pyramid Lake) and Red Flag Warnings have been issued for the areas today where the fire weather and wind concern are the greatest. Please see the products for more information, but please keep these winds in mind if you have any Memorial Day outdoor plans for later today. Blowing dust may also occur near desert sinks and playas in W NV with these winds. Elsewhere, winds look to gust up to around 25-35 mph. This will also be the last day for warmer temperatures ahead of the approaching cold front with the W NV valleys having daytime highs in the 80s and the Sierra communities having highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. As for precipitation chances today, shower and isolated thunderstorm chances (~15%) look to be confined to south of US-50 today. The window has opened in Mono, S. Lyon, and W. Mineral Counties with spotty showers already popping up. Coverage will slowly spread northeast into more of W NV before ending around 9 PM this evening. Any storms should be sub-severe today, but please be weather aware in case a storm develops near your outdoor activities today. Overnight, Sierra ridge winds pick up quite a bit with gusts up to around 75-85 mph as the cold front continues its approach toward the region. For Tuesday, model guidance has the cold front moving through the CWA as the upper low pushes across OR and over the CWA by Tuesday evening. Cooler daytime high temperatures are on tap as the forecast calls for highs around 5 to 15 degrees below late May normals. Increased winds (gusts up to around 30-40 mph) will continue on Tuesday though direction will shift to northwesterly behind the front. This will lead to a second day of Lake Wind Advisories within the region (refer to the product for details). Currently, precipitation chances (55-85%) are expected for NE CA and Northern Washoe County portions of the CWA during the morning and afternoon hours of Tuesday, but coverage then spreads into the Tahoe Basin as well as eastern portions of Pershing and Churchill counties by the evening hours. Snow levels still look to be around 6.5-7.5 kft so snow could be possibly mixed in with rain at higher elevations that see showers. As for thunderstorm chances, there is around a 20-25% chance that afternoon showers could contain some rumbles of thunder in Plumas, Sierra, Nevada, and S. Lassen Counties with adjacent counties seeing a ~15% chance. Models are showing around 100-200 J/kg of CAPE in these areas, so be prepared in case a storm develops near your location. Tuesday night lows will be colder due to the frontal passage with the NE CA and W NV valleys being in the middle 30s to lower 40s range and the Sierra communities dropping into the 20s. For Wednesday and Thursday, the upper low will reside generally over the CWA though possibly wobbling around a bit. This will push in more cooler air from the north, dropping area high temperatures even more. W NV and NE CA valley will see highs in the upper 50s on Wednesday and in the 60s on Thursday. Sierra communities will have Wednesday`s highs between the middle 40s and the lower 50s and Thursday`s highs in the upper 40s to middle 50s range. More widespread shower coverage bringing rain and mountain snow to the CWA are to be expected on these two days as well. Snow levels are now forecast to drop to around 5.5-6 kft on early Wednesday morning, but gradually rise to around 7-7.5 kft during by the late afternoon. Snow levels more or less stabilize through Thursday morning before rising as the upper low moves east. The latest snowfall forecast shows the highest Sierra peaks around the Tahoe region with up to around 2 inches of snow and the Eastern Sierra peaks in Mono County seeing up to around 6 inches by Thursday afternoon. There is still low forecast confidence on these totals due to the uncertainty in the evolution of the upper low at this time, so will be monitoring how it pans out. Light accumulations will be possible at lower Sierra elevations, but not anticipating any impactful amounts at this time. While thunderstorms may be possible with the showers on Wednesday, Thursday currently sees more widespread and better chances (15-30%). Precipitation lingers into Friday followed by temperatures warming to closer to seasonal normals by the weekend. -078 && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected at all area TAF sites today and tonight. Winds are the main aviation impact today and going through the night. SW-W winds this afternoon will gust up to around 25-30 kt for western NV terminals and around 25 kt for the Sierra/Tahoe area terminals. KMMH may see some vicinity showers and isolated thunderstorms possible through 26/05Z. As FL100 winds still expect to increase tonight with gusts 60-70 kt, turbulence and periods of LLWS are likely, while gusts of 25-30+ kt could mix down to the surface at times, especially for KTVL/KTRK. Windy conditions with turbulence and periods of LLWS continue on Tuesday as a cold front passes through the region. Winds shift to a W-NW direction for most terminals (KTVL sees SSW winds) with gusts up to around 25-30 kt once again. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through Tuesday, followed by increased chances for rain showers Wednesday-Thursday that could bring MVFR conditions at times with terrain obscurations, although wind speeds will decrease. MJD/078 && .FIRE WEATHER... * Red Flag Warnings remain in effect through this evening for northeast CA and northwest NV, including Pershing County where the Quartz Fire continues to burn in the northeast part of that county. Minimum humidity levels will drop to 10-20%. Southwest to west winds ahead of an approaching cold front will be gusty going into the night. * Uncertainty remains on the extent of vegetation that has dried out sufficiently, but information from local fire partners and the growth of the Quartz Fire suggests that areas of cured grasses and sagebrush will be capable of carrying fire in valleys/midslopes of far northwest NV. Farther south, elevated fire weather conditions will be present, but the latest fuel moisture data from local fire partners isn`t showing widespread coverage of dry vegetation. * Gusty winds return on Tuesday and shift to a more northwest direction, as a cold front sweeps through the region. Areas near and south of US-50 in west central NV, and the US-6 corridor in southeast Mono County could see a short duration of near-critical wind and humidity conditions Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise, temperatures cool and humidity rises behind the front on Tuesday, with increasing chances of showers and wetting rainfall Wednesday and Thursday. MJD/078 && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ458. Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ004. Lake Wind Advisory until 2 PM PDT Tuesday NVZ002. Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 5 AM PDT Wednesday NVZ001. Lake Wind Advisory until 5 PM PDT Tuesday NVZ003. Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ423. Lake Wind Advisory from 5 AM Tuesday to 11 AM PDT Wednesday NVZ004. CA...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening CAZ270-278. Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening CAZ071. Lake Wind Advisory until 2 PM PDT Tuesday CAZ072. Lake Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 5 PM PDT Tuesday CAZ073. && $$

479 FXUS66 KSTO 251915 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1215 PM PDT Mon May 25 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty southwesterly winds today combined with low daytime RHs, will lead to Elevated Fire Weather conditions in the Valley. - Chances for isolated showers/thunderstorms Tuesday-Thursday afternoon and evening over the Sierra and Shasta County. && .DISCUSSION... ...Today through Tuesday... Current conditions across the area show higher level clouds in the northern portions of the forecast area around Redding with temperatures in the 70s. Winds have started to slowly increase across the Valley, with gusts of 20-25mph being reported near the Delta. We will continue to see the winds increase throughout the day, with gusts of 30-40mph possible within the Valley and Delta. RH values will drop this afternoon when we get temperatures into the 80s for daytime highs. The low RH values combined with the breezy south to southwesterly winds bring elevated fire weather concerns to the Valley today. The highest chances lie in the northern Sacramento Valley where temperatures are warmer, winds are higher, and RH values are lower. Please do be mindful of any outdoor activities that involve fire/flame; the fuels will only continue to dry as we dive into the dry season. Temperatures will slowly cool off on Tuesday, with highs in the 70s with filtered sunshine. Latest HIRES and NBM guidance has RH values improving tomorrow along with winds diminishing. This has been the case over the past several runs of the NBM. Thus, we decided to remove the Elevated Fire Weather concerns for Tuesday as forecasted conditions have improved. We will continue to monitor conditions across the area for any fire weather concerns Tuesday. A low pressure system will track through the region on Tuesday bringing moisture to the higher elevation and potentially down into the foothills. Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity has been picked up in the NBM and HIRES guidance for Tuesday afternoon and evening. The highest chances lie around Shasta County and in the Sierra. Snow levels will be at 7000 feet, but will slowly drop toward 6000-7000 feet late Tuesday and into Wednesday. Areas south of Highway 50 in the Sierra at the higher elevations have the best chances to see snow. Accumulations are expected to be minor. ...Wednesday and onward... The low pressure system continues to move through the region Wednesday and Thursday, with winds increasing out of the north. Wind gusts of 25-35mph are possible on Wednesday, with the highest winds along and west of I-5 in the Sacramento Valley. The trend for the past couple of runs of the NBM have had RH Values increasing and winds being lighter across the region. This has allowed us to drop the Elevated Fire Weather concern headline for Wednesday. However, we will continue to monitor conditions and the latest HIRES guidance to see if any headlines are needed to be re-added for fire weather concerns on Wednesday. Shower and isolated thunderstorms are possible in the mountains and foothills Wednesday and Thursday. A few of the storms could be on the stronger wide, with small hail and gusty winds possible. There is a slight chance (less than 20 percent) for an isolated shower within the Valley Wednesday/Thursday. Chances for light snow at the highest elevations south of Highway 50 in the Sierra, with snow levels above 7000 feet Wednesday afternoon. Post Thursday, we will start to see temperatures increase slowly as the low pressure system exists the region. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, with breezy south to southwesterly winds. Gusts of 25-35kts will be possible for the Sacramento sites, RDD, and RBL. Winds will be out of the north to northwest for SCK and MOD today, with a few gusts to 20kts. SCT to BKN clouds move through the region later this evening and overnight. Otherwise, winds go light and variable overnight and into tomorrow morning. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

870 FXUS65 KMSO 251924 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 124 PM MDT Mon May 25 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Potentially strong thunderstorms each afternoon/evening today through Wednesday - Primary threats from thunderstorms will be strong, gusty winds. For tonight, there will be about a 10-15% chance of thunderstorm gusts exceeding 50 mph - A cool and wet pattern arrives Tuesday, lowering temperatures and bringing widespread rain through Friday. Satellite imagery this afternoon is depicting an elongated low pressure circulation approaching the coast of the Pacific Northwest. This feature will be a key player in the weather over the next several days. In the near term, flow aloft ahead of this circulation over the Northern Rockies will be southwesterly this afternoon, turning southerly tonight as the low moves south and east. South and southwesterly flow are effective in transporting warmer air and Pacific moisture, key ingredients for convective storms, into the Northern Rockies. Clear skies ahead of the warm, moist air will aid in low-level heating necessary to kick off convection later in the day. Model soundings indicate good instability and a dry lower atmosphere, indicating a primary threat of strong outflow winds. High resolution models indicate showers and thunderstorms developing over Idaho, Lemhi, and southern Ravalli counties by about 2 pm MDT. Storms track to the north or northeast, reaching west-central and southwest Montana (including Hamilton, Missoula, Butte, and I-90 east of about Missoula) by about 3 pm, and lasting until about 8 pm before continuing north through Lake, Powell, and Flathead counties including Flathead Lake. Storms will produce strong, gusty winds of about 40 mph with about a 10-15% chance of exceeding 50 mph. Small hail and frequent lightning will accompany these storms. Tonight, a cold front associated with the main low pressure circulation will enhance chances for overnight convection from about 8 pm to midnight MDT. This second round of storms will be focused further west, including north-central Idaho and northwest Montana. The low becomes positioned to the southwest of the Northern Rockies on Tuesday. Expect another round of afternoon convection, along with more stratiform rain through Wednesday. Most model guidance keeps the low over Nevada into later this week before ejecting northeast this weekend. That scenario will keep a southwesterly moisture feed available in the Northern Rockies, and unsettled weather will accompany that moisture feed. && .AVIATION...Radar returns and lightning detection systems are already showing convection developing over southern Lemhi County early this afternoon. Moisture and warm air from the southwest will be conducive to widespread convective storms this afternoon and tonight. Model soundings indicate ample instability and shear with a dry lower atmosphere. The resulting storms will pose a threat of strong, erratic outflow winds, small hail, brief heavy rain decreasing visibility, and frequent lightning. Expect thunderstorm gusts of about 40 knots, with about a 10% chance of exceeding 50 knots. Convective-allowing models indicate storm development will take place from south to north, starting in Lemhi and Idaho counties as early as 25/2000Z, moving north to Hamilton, Missoula, and Butte by about 25/2100Z, Kalispell by about 25/2200Z. A second round of convection will arrive overnight as a cold front will enhance instability (26/0200Z to 26/0600Z). Another round of thunderstorms are in the forecast for Tuesday afternoon/evening. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

859 FXUS65 KBOI 260104 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 704 PM MDT Mon May 25 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty winds today, resulting in critical fire weather conditions in southeastern Oregon. - Scattered showers/thunderstorms in Idaho today with outflow gusts as strong as 60 mph and blowing dust. - Much cooler Tuesday through the rest of the week as precipitation continues. && .SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday Night/... Issued 241 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2026 Warm today with high temps 10-15 degrees above normal. A strong cold front will pass through eastern Oregon tonight and western Idaho tomorrow morning. Ahead of the cold front, high based showers and thunderstorms are developing in SW Idaho highlands and in Central Idaho Mountains. These storms are capable of producing outflows 40-60 mph in an environment with 1000 J/kg of DCAPE. Also ahead of the front, winds across the area are increasing. In SE Oregon, sustained winds of 20-30 mph and gusts up to 40 mph with dry conditions have prompted the issuance of a Red Flag Warning. Winds in SW Idaho will be slightly lower, 10-20 mph sustained and gusts up to 30 mph outside of thunderstorms. Winds will also kick up blowing dust, locally reducing visibility and air quality. While storms today are high based and dry, tonight and tomorrow behind the front precipitation chances increase and temperatures drop down to near normal. Scattered showers continue over the region through Wednesday, with storm total rainfall amounts around 0.25 inches for much of the area, lower in the Snake Plain and higher over mountains. Thunderstorms are possible each afternoon/evening with gusty winds and heavier rainfall rates. && .LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/... Issued 241 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2026 An active weather pattern will continue through most of the long-term period, as the upper low lingering over the Great Basin will continue widespread showers and thunderstorms Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures will mostly hover near or slightly below normal through the end of the week. An upper trough will slowly steer into the northwest region from off the coast of British Columbia over the weekend. There is strong guidance agreement that this larger system will swallow the low over the Great Basin and steer it as a shortwave trough over our area. This pattern will likely continue widespread showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. Sunday will likely see showers/thunderstorms over higher terrain as this merged system moves out, before a broad ridge builds in and returns warmer and drier conditions early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z Tuesday through Wednesday/... Issued 651 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2026 Generally VFR. Scattered showers thunderstorms lingering over NE Oregon and SW Idaho through evening. Thunderstorms capable of 30-45 kt outflows and blowing dust. Showers increasing across eastern OR early Tue/AM, with ceilings lowering to MVFR near KBKE/KBNO. Surface winds outside of storms: SE-SW 10-20 kt with gusts to 15-35 kt this evening. A cold front tonight will switch winds to W-NW 10-25 kt with gusts to 25-40 kt, strongest near KBKE/KONO. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: S-SW 10-30 kt. KBOI...VFR. Occasional weak showers/virga overnight through Tuesday morning. Showers will increase Tuesday afternoon, with a 20% chance of lightning. Surface winds outside of storms: S-E 5-15 kt. Cold front will shift winds to W-NW around 26/06Z, with NW 5-15 kt behind cold front. Period of gusts to 20-25 kt possible with frontal passage. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ670-672. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....SH SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....JY

841 FXUS65 KLKN 251848 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1148 AM PDT Mon May 25 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Thunderstorms chances 5-10% this afternoon and early evening; 10-15% chance tomorrow * Highs today in the 80s, trending cooler mid-week * Gusty SW winds this afternoon across Humboldt County * Gusty winds Tuesday; strongest across central NV * Unsettled weather Tuesday through at least Friday && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Monday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Increasing southwesterly flow over western Nevada today as a trough of low pressure to the northwest pushes into Nevada. Winds of up to 20-30 mph with gusts as high as 30-45 mph over Humboldt County this afternoon while the rest of Nevada will have generally lighter winds. Increasing mid-level moisture as PWAT values reach up to 0.4-0.5 inches are resulting in seeing thunderstorm chances again this afternoon, yet CAPE values are coming in lower than yesterday, resulting in only a 5-10% chance across the region (15-20% over Jarbidge Wilderness Area along the state border). Precipitation is not expected as the lower levels are dry with little mixing, seeing mainly virga today. Tomorrow, the low pressure system will have moved over Nevada with the central portion over the state. The associated cold front will push through northern and central Nevada by the afternoon, bringing in cooler and wetter conditions, increasing precipitation chances across the region. Ahead of the front, southerly/southwesterly flow will increase with speeds reaching up to 20-30 mph, gusts as high as 45-50 mph across central Nevada in the afternoon. High temperatures expected to cool into the 70s however behind the front, temperatures cooling into the 50s to 60s. Overnight, temperatures drop to just above freezing across the region. Precipitation is expected to be rain in the valleys with mountain snow as snow levels drop to just around 7500 feet, however higher elevations and passes cannot be ruled out at this time for snow accumulations. Latest model runs showing slight increase to precipitation amounts with passes and summits along US-50 seeing up to a trace to one inch of snow overnight. Wednesday through Friday, upper ridging towards the central CONUS will stall the low pressure`s movement, keeping it centered over Nevada. Precipitation chances continue across the region through Thursday, becoming more localized across northern Nevada by Friday. High temperatures stay cool with highs expected a couple of degrees below normal this time of year in the 60s, yet mountain snow expected to be trending down each day as snow levels stay above 7500 feet. Winds will also be trending down with breezy winds over eastern Nevada Wednesday, becoming light winds across the region Thursday and Friday as the low remains centered over the state. Saturday, the system will push north merging into a longwave trough over Canada. Chances for some lingering showers remain across the state in the morning, but probabilities remain low below 20% for any wetting rain. By the afternoon, quiet weather conditions return. Warming temperature trend starting Saturday with highs back into the 70s. By Monday, temperatures expected to reach back into the 80s. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence of strong gusty winds over Humboldt County this afternoon. Moderate confidence for building dry thunderstorms across the state today. High confidence for strong gusty winds over central Nevada with moderate confidence of active weather Tuesday with the passing cold front. Moderate confidence the low pressure remains over Nevada through Friday. && .AVIATION... Look for VFR conditions over all terminals for the next 24 hour period. CIG levels will start to lower in the afternoon as mid- level moisture and light CAPE will develop cloud buildup around FL100-FL120. 5-10% of thunderstorm development today across the state. Outflow wind gusts from thunderstorms that develop could reach up to 45 mph. South/southwest winds this afternoon will generally be between 15-25 kts, however stronger winds expected over KWMC today with gusts reaching up to 30-35 kts. Gusty winds may result in blowing dust which could lower VIS below 6SM. && .FIRE WEATHER... South to southwest winds at 10-15 mph, gusts up to 20-30 across most zones today with the exception of NW Nevada seeing gusts up to 35-45 mph especially over zone 437 as a low pressure system begins to make its way over Nevada. Red Flag warning for strong winds and low RH remains in effect for zone 437 today until 11 pm. Increasing mid-level moisture with some weak instability across Nevada giving a 5-10% chance for isolated dry thunderstorms this afternoon. Tomorrow, stronger winds will shift more towards central Nevada as the storm front moves over Nevada resulting in stronger winds with gusts up to 45-50 mph over zones 425 and 426. Wind Advisory is in effect for those zones on Tuesday with elevated fire weather conditions over those zones as RH values drop below 15%, however fuel moisture remains above critical threshold. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Red Flag Warning from 12PM PDT Monday through 11PM PDT Monday for NVZ437. Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Tuesday NVZ035-041. && $$ DISCUSSION...97 AVIATION...97 FIRE WEATHER...97