596 FXUS66 KSEW 150311 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 711 PM PST Sat Nov 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal system moves across the area late today into Sunday for steadier rain, gusty winds. Post-frontal showers on Sunday. Unsettled conditions continue Monday with troughing over the western US. Another low approaches the west coast midweek with the majority of the precipitation focused south of western Washington. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... The latest forecast remains on track this evening with minor updates to the Aviation section below. Steadier rain will continue to move onshore this evening, moving into Puget Sound tonight. Steadier precipitation then slides into the Cascades by Sunday morning. South winds also increase with this front, with the strongest winds along the coast and San Juan Islands. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for these areas with gusts of 50 to 55 MPH. A Wind Advisory has also been issued for Whidbey Island and Admiralty Inlet region with southeast wind gusts of 40 to 50 MPH. Elsewhere, breezy conditions are expected, mainly ranging 25 to 40 MPH. Post- frontal showers develop on Sunday, resulting in unsettled conditions at times. In addition, weak instablilty (150-300 J/kg) may lead to localized thunderstorms, particularly along the coast and Olympic Peninsula. Otherwise, winds remain elevated on Sunday, but slowly ease during the afternoon hours. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for the San Juan Islands again Sunday morning before tides gradually decrease through this week. Upper troughing over the western US on Monday will keep a limited threat for showers over the area, especially for the Olympic Peninsula and Cascades. Highs in the mid to upper 50s through Sunday will cool on Monday to the low 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Drier conditions are expected on Tuesday as troughing moves into the interior Rockies. A deep surface low approaches the west coast on Wednesday. Ensembles keep the majority of the precipitation focused south of western Washington with this system, however a chance of precipitation remains due to some lingering uncertainty in the proximity of the system. The system moves onshore across CA on Thursday, allowing for another period of drier conditions late week. Uncertainty increases further in ensembles by next weekend, but indications of troughing offshore may result in the return of a more active pattern. JD && .AVIATION... A strong front will move through the terminals tonight/Sunday. Low- end VFR conditions should prevail for most through this evening before rain begins to arrive to the coast and move through the interior overnight. A brief period of MVFR cigs (and vis along the coast in heavier rain) will be possible overnight, otherwise ceilings look to remain VFR (in the 3500-4500 ft range) through much of Sunday as scattered showers continue. There is a low (15-20%) chance of isolated thunderstorms, mainly along the coast. South/southeasterly winds 8-15 kt with gusts to 25 kt will increase tonight, with gusts up to 25-30 kt across the entire area by late tonight. Locally higher gusts 30-40 kt possible along the coast and through the northern interior overnight. Winds will peak overnight but remain elevated through much of Sunday with continued gusts of 15-25 kt as winds will be very slow to decrease. KSEA...VFR through the evening. The next front is slated to arrive tonight with steadier rainfall and the potential for a brief period of MVFR cigs overnight between around 09-15Z Mon. Surface winds remain S/SE. Winds 8-12 kt today, increasing to 10 to 15 kt overnight with gusts up to 25 kt possible through early Sunday. Winds will begin to slowly ease Sunday afternoon with VFR conditions continuing. 62/HPR && .MARINE... A strong low pressure system will send a cold front across the area waters as the low center tracks to the northeast along the British Columbia coast. Winds will continue to increase across the area, with winds peaking overnight. Storm Warnings remain in effect for the coastal waters with peak wind gusts overnight forecast up to 40- 50 kt, particularly across the offshore coastal waters. Gale Warnings remain in effect across the most of the interior waters, with a Small Craft Advisory in effect for the Puget Sound. Winds will begin to decrease Sunday morning but will do so gradually, with most locations seeing Small Craft Advisory level winds through much of the day on Sunday. Winds will finally ease over the coastal waters and northern Salish Sea Sunday night. Seas are slowly easing from their maximum last night, but will remain in the 16-20 ft range before the strong winds overnight raise seas back to around 20-22 ft. These short period waves will ease fairly quickly early Sunday morning to around 15-18 ft before the westerly long-period swell arrives late Sunday morning, with waves peaking in the afternoon/evening hours. Seas will rise to a maximum of around 20-22 ft at around 16 seconds, but could be as high as 25 ft farther offshore. With higher pressure building across the area on Monday, this will allow for a break in the activity, with winds remaining light and allowing for waves to decrease throughout the day, lowering to around 10-12 ft by early Tuesday. A low pressure system will form over the open northeast Pacific and move off to the southeast of Washington Tuesday into Wednesday, making landfall over northern California late Wednesday. While somewhat distant, this system will allow winds to turn offshore and increase, as well as increasing waves for the next round of headlines mid-week. Calmer conditions under high pressure are then favored Thursday into the end of the week. 62 && .HYDROLOGY... The potential for flooding continues on the Skokomish River with another round of steadier rainfall tonight into early Sunday. A Flood Watch remains in effect. River flooding is not expected on the other rivers in the area in the next 7 days at this time. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST Sunday for Grays Harbor County Coast-Northern Washington Coast-San Juan County. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM to noon PST Sunday for Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-San Juan County. Flood Watch through Sunday morning for Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Olympics-Southern Hood Canal. Wind Advisory until 7 AM PST Sunday for Island County-Port Townsend Area. High Surf Advisory until 10 AM PST Sunday for Grays Harbor County Coast-Northern Washington Coast. High Surf Warning from 10 AM Sunday to 10 AM PST Monday for Grays Harbor County Coast-Northern Washington Coast. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST Sunday for Grays Harbor Bar. Gale Warning until 4 AM PST Sunday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Sunday for West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Gale Warning until 7 AM PST Sunday for Admiralty Inlet-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM PST Sunday for Admiralty Inlet-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM PST Sunday for Puget Sound and Hood Canal. Storm Warning until 1 AM PST Sunday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 PM PST Sunday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. && $$

505 FXUS66 KPQR 150635 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 1035 PM PST Sat Nov 14 2026 Updated aviation discussion. && .SYNOPSIS...A rather active weather pattern continues to steer a series of frontal systems into the Pacific Northwest through the middle of next week with rainy conditions persisting at times. High surf, sneaker waves, and breezy winds impacts continue through this weekend as well. Snow levels fluctuate between 5000-7000ft through Sunday before falling near 4000 ft in the Cascades Sunday night into Monday and 3000-4000 ft Tuesday into Wednesday with potential for pass-level snowfall concerns. && .DISCUSSION...Now through Friday...Water vapor satellite imagery reveals the next low pressure system wrapping up in the NE Pacific this afternoon. The 960 mb surface low will remain north as it drifts into the Gulf of Alaska. But, the associated cold front racing across the Pacific today will push across the Pacific NW tonight bringing breezy winds and increasing rainfall across the area later this evening into Sunday. NBM and hi-res guidance suggest rain likely arrives at the coast by 6-8 pm and spreads inland quickly thereafter. A strong southwesterly upper level jet will push into western Oregon associated with IVT values peaking between 500- 750 kg/m2. With the orientation and speed of the frontal system, expect the highest rainfall rates and accumulations to occur along the coast and southwest facing slopes of the Coast Range, as well as into the SW Washington Cascades. Here, probabilities for exceeding 1 inch of rainfall over 24-hours is highest, generally between 30-70% at the coast (highest along the central OR coast), and 50-80% in the Coast Range. The interior lowlands along the I-5 corridor are more likely to see around 0.25 inch total (60-80% chances), where more of a rain-shadow effect is expected. Steady rain transitions to showers on Sunday behind the frontal passage. South to southeast winds increase today ahead of the approaching front. The strongest winds are expected at the coast, likely peaking later this evening (between 8 PM and midnight) with gusts up to 40- 50 mph. There remains around a 10% chance for high wind gusts exceeding 58 mph. Breezy winds inland should max out with gusts around 25-35 mph. Post-frontal showers continue through Sunday, while snow levels gradually drop from around 6000 ft Sunday morning to around 4000- 4500 ft Sunday night. Snow showers may occur down to pass level in the Cascades, but probs for even 1 inch of accumulation remain low (25% or less) through Sunday night. By Monday, the upper level trough becomes stretched and elongated offshore, pushing south of California before sliding inland across the West Coast. This will maintain chances for light showers across the area through the day, while temperatures trend cooler back toward seasonal norms. Ensemble members show increasing confidence in a brief break in the active weather pattern late Monday night through Tuesday afternoon. The next weather system is then slated to approach the PacNW coast later Tuesday into Wednesday, though ensemble clusters still indicate quite a bit of uncertainty in the track of the low pressure system and therefore potential weather impacts. However, NBM`s probability of at least 1 inch of precipitation between 4 AM Tuesday through 4 AM Thursday is only 10-40% along the coast, 10-20% along the terrain, and 1-10% for the interior lowlands, so the trend is for rain impacts to be limited. The airmass will still be on the cooler side when this system hits, and snow levels are forecast to be around 3000-4000 ft Tuesday into Wednesday. Even with the lower precipitation forecast, NBM indicates a 5-10% chance of at least 6 inches of snow at pass level. This increases to 10-20% chance at pass level and up to 50% chance for higher elevations for at least 3 inches of snow. Highest probabilities near Willamette Pass. DH/99 && .AVIATION...Through 06Z Monday...Another frontal system is impacting the region, bringing light rain and gusty south to southeast winds. Conditions remain VFR and are expected to remain borderlines MVFR to VFR through the overnight hours. Chances for MVFR CIGs increases behind the front to 30-50% along the coast through 10z and inland between 8-14z at 10-30%. Conditions trend toward VFR after 17-20z Sun as rain transitions to showers and becomes more hit or miss for the terminals. Any shower that moves directly over a terminal may produce brief MVFR conditions. South to southeast along the coast will continue with gusts up to 30-35 kt will drop to 20-25 kt after 12z. Winds increase inland between 07-12z Sun with gusts peaking 20-25 kts and shifting to the south to southwest after 09-12z Sun. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Another frontal system will bring widespread rain through 16-18z Sunday morning. Expect mainly VFR conditions with heavier showers producing MVFR conditions at times between 09-16z (15-30% chance). Wind gusts increase to 20-25 kts between 06-12z Sun, shifting from southeast to south around 08-11z Sun. -19/03 && .MARINE...Rather treacherous marine conditions are expected to continue into Sunday. Seas are forecast to remain above 20 ft around 20-25 ft at 14-18 seconds through Sunday night. This is due to a combination of an exiting strong westerly swell, increasing westerly winds today, and a fresh westerly swell moving into the waters on Sunday. A Hazardous Seas Warning is in effect through 4pm this afternoon. In addition to these elevated seas, another deep low pressure system in the NE Pacific is pushing a strong front east and will move through the coastal waters tonight into Sunday morning. Confidence is high for storm force wind gusts of 48-55 kt across our waters accompanying this front, especially beyond 10-20 NM offshore, starting late this afternoon and continuing through around 10 PM PST. Thus, a Storm Warning is in effect for the inner/outer waters including the Columbia River Bar during this time period, followed by another Hazardous Seas Warning through Sunday for the elevated seas. Wind gusts will quickly fall down to 30-39 kts behind the frontal passage after 10 PM PST, then lowering to 25-30 kts Sunday morning. Seas are forecast to gradually diminish below 20 ft Monday towards the 10-15 ft range by Tuesday morning, and wind gusts decrease below 20 kts by Monday morning. However, another frontal system will increase winds again Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. There`s a 60-80% chance of Gales for locations beyond 30 NM from the coast during this time and a 30-50% chance for the waters within 30 NM from the coast. Another increasing fresh westerly swell follows Wednesday morning, increasing seas to around 14-16 ft at 14-15 seconds through Wednesday night. There`s a 50-60% chance that seas could reach at least 17 ft beyond 40 NM from the coast. Looking further ahead, there is decent model agreement for seas to slowly decrease through the end of next week, dropping below 10 ft by Friday as the weather pattern briefly calms. -03 && .BEACH HAZARDS...Hazardous high surf conditions will continue along the Oregon and southern Washington beaches through Monday morning. Even though the westerly swell from overnight is slowly decreasing today, the swell still remains higher than normal around 16-18 ft at 15-16 seconds, which still translates to breakers of 20-25 ft. The sneaker wave threat still remains extremely high during this period. Then, another large westerly swell around 20 ft with dominant wave periods of 15-18 seconds arrives Sunday afternoon and lasts into Monday, resulting in breakers up to 25 to 30 ft. A High Surf Advisory is in effect through 10 AM Monday. In these conditions, wave will run significantly farther up on area beaches and jetties than what is normally observed. More simply put, the sneaker wave threat will be very high. Beachgoers should use extreme caution as sneaker waves can suddenly knock people off of their feet and quickly pull them into the frigid ocean which may lead to serious injury or drowning. In addition, large wave runup may dislodge logs on area beaches and result in them rolling up and down area beaches, which have historically killed or seriously injured unsuspecting people, so there will be much more of a threat than just getting wet from a rogue wave. Beach erosion is also expected. Avoid beaches if possible. All in all, please remain extremely vigilant if you insist on visiting area beaches the next several days - your life may depend on it. && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...High Surf Advisory until 10 AM PST Monday for ORZ101>103. WA...High Surf Advisory until 10 AM PST Monday for WAZ201. PZ...Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Sunday for PZZ210-251>253-271>273. Hazardous Seas Warning from 4 AM Sunday to 4 AM PST Monday for PZZ210-251>253-271>273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

093 FXUS66 KMFR 150713 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1113 PM PST Sat Nov 14 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * High impact marine weather lasting through the weekend, including very large and dangerous surf conditions. * Inland, low to moderate impacts from strong winds and rainfall; minimal impacts from snow occuring mainly above 5000 feet with another front tonight into Sunday. * A third front arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday with lower snow levels; winter weather impacts likely for elevations above roughly 3500-4000 ft. && .DISCUSSION...The next strong front is developing offshore. The associated surface low is deepening out and will be positioned near 50N and just inside 140W by this evening. This will send the strong front toward the coast. Models are showing a fairly strong low-mid level jet associated with this front and model probabilities for wind gusts exceeding 55 kt are high over the marine waters (>70%). As such, we have storm warnings out for that. The strongest winds when the front moves onshore later today and tonight will be at the coastal headlands. We could see maximum wind gusts of 70-75 mph at the Capes (Arago, Blanco and Sebastian). Pressure gradients aren`t quite as high as we`d like to see for warning level events (peaking at -6 to -7 mb OTH-ACV this evening), but there was enough evidence for some of the more exposed coastal beaches and Highway 101 seeing wind gusts in excess of 60 mph, so we issued a High Wind Warning from 1pm this afternoon to 1am PST tonight. Farther inland, while we are expecting gusty southerly winds again in portions of the Shasta/Rogue Valleys, there is a more SW component aloft and the mid-level jet isn`t quite as strong as Thursday night/Friday`s front. MFR-RDD gradient also peaks at around -7 mb, about 2 mb less than previous front. This should keep the strongest winds from mixing down to the surface. Even so, we have wind advisories with gusts in the Rogue Valley up to 40 mph and up to 55 mph in the Shasta Valley. East Side areas will be breezy to windy at times as well tonight into early Sunday morning, but peak gusts should be around 40, maybe 45 mph. A last minute Wind Advisory has been issued for the area around Winter Rim, Summer Lake, and Valley Falls, where channeling effects can push wind gusts up to 50 mph. In terms of rainfall, QPF will be marginally lower than the last event, but still expecting around 1-2 inches along the coast, coast range mountains and into western/southern Siskiyou County, including the Mt. Shasta region/Dunsmuir/McCloud. Interior western valleys will see some downsloping in advance of the front, so amounts for Roseburg, Medford and Yreka will be muted, generally around 0.25". Cascades and Siskiyous should get around 0.50-0.75", while east side locations see 0.10-0.25", but perhaps not even 0.10" over the deserts east of Winter Rim. Snow levels remain higher than 5000 feet for this event, so we`re not too concerned about winter impacts, though there could be a few inches up around Crater Lake National Park and around the Ski Bowl at Mt. Shasta/higher area peaks. Perhaps some wet snow will occur overnight into Sunday morning around Diamond Lake, Willamette Pass or even Lake of the Woods. Post-frontal showers continue Sunday night into Monday with moist onshore flow. Showers should diminish Monday night as the upper trough axis moves inland and then east of the Cascades by Tuesday morning. Models then show yet another strong Pacific storm bottoming out sub 970mb around 45N and 135W late Tuesday into Wednesday. This will bring another front toward the coast with main impacts from winds and precip at the coast and into NorCal. The latest model runs this morning are showing a more southerly and offshore track of the surface low, now sliding south offshore and moving onshore somewhere in the vicinity of San Francisco. This supports lower snow levels, but places us more on the northeast side of the low, and therefore shifts the bulk of moisture towards northern California and the far southwest Oregon coast. The result is a higher chance for snow in Siskiyou County and points south, although several inches of snow are still possible for our Cascades and East Side as wrap-around moisture feeds into the area. We will also have to keep an eye on the Mt Shasta City area, where upslope precipitation enhancement could force snow levels lower, potentially down to the Interstate 5 corridor. Confidence is still lower than normal for this event, and the next one or two forecast cycles should help nail down the details. A Winter Storm Watch may be necessary with int he next 24 hours. -Spilde/BPN && .AVIATION...15/06Z TAFs...A front moving inland tonight is bringing strong south winds to the area. Low level wind shear is expected at all TAF locations. Ceilings will lower from west to east as this front moves inland this evening, generally hovering around MVFR levels, though could potentially lower to IFR at times in heavy rain. Wind shear concerns will ease around 10-12z Sunday morning. The expectation is for generally improving conditions after 18z Sunday, but expect shower activity and terrain obscurations to continue through the afternoon. && .MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PST Saturday, November 14, 2026...Very large long period west swell peaked overnight at 30 to 36 feet at 17 to 19 seconds. Peak observations at the buoys -- Buoy 46015 was 36` @19 seconds, 46229 was 33` @ 18 seconds and buoy 46027 was 33` @17 seconds. While swells will gradually lower in height today, these very high and very steep, dangerous conditions will continue. A second strong front is expected this afternoon and tonight. Models indicate southerly wind gusts up to storm force (50-60 kt) with this front. Long period west swell combined with building wind seas will bring very steep and very hazardous seas of 19 to 24 feet at 10-14 seconds. Winds lower late tonight into early Sunday morning. Then, another long period swell arrives late Sunday morning through Monday afternoon with seas at 20 to 25 feet at 16 seconds. Seas briefly diminish, then yet another strong front is likely late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Gales are likely with storm force winds possible again. This front will likely be followed by another high and long period swell on Wednesday, but does currently look to be lower than what`s expected tonight. Mariners are urged to remain in port during this period of extremely dangerous weather, secure vessels and continue to monitor forecasts for updates. -Spilde/BR-y && .BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 1200 PM PST Saturday, November 14, 2026... Very large, long period westerly swell will maintain dangerous conditions along area beaches through Monday evening. A relatively lower period of breaking surf heights, though still hazardous, is expected today as surf heights gradually lower to 20 to 25 feet by this evening, then to 15 to 20 feet overnight into Sunday morning. Conditions worsen Sunday afternoon as breaking waves reach 25 to 30 ft and these dangerous conditions persist into Monday morning. Waves and surf remain hazardous Monday, but gradually diminish through Monday evening. -Spilde/BR-y && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Wind Advisory until 1 PM PST Sunday for ORZ026-031. High Surf Warning until 10 PM PST Monday for ORZ021-022. High Wind Warning until 1 AM PST Sunday for ORZ021-022. CA...Wind Advisory until 1 PM PST Sunday for CAZ081. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Storm Warning until 1 AM PST Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Hazardous Seas Warning until 4 PM PST Monday for PZZ350-356-370- 376. && $$

848 FXUS66 KEKA 142244 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 240 PM PST Sat Nov 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Very large surf today with breaking waves over 25 feet still possible. A second large swell is forecast to arrive late Sunday into Monday with breaking waves of around 22 to 28 feet. Increased beach erosion along with the possibly of some coastal flooding is still possible. * Another cold front arriving this evening and lasting through early Sunday, brings another round of rain and strong southerly winds. * A midweek storm is possible as the storm track remains set up over NW CA. && .SYNOPSIS...A brief break in rain this afternoon will continue before another round of rain and winds arrives this evening and continues into Sunday morning. Large and energetic swell continues today, but will continue to diminish before another large swell arrives late tomorrow. Large breaking waves will continue. && .DISCUSSION...A troughing pattern has set up over the Pacific Northwest, persisting through early this coming week. As showers from the previous system diminish, another frontal boundary approaches Northwest California bringing another round of gusty southerly winds and moderate rain later this evening and continuing into Sunday morning. This upcoming system is still projected to be weaker than the storm from this past Friday morning (11/13). Rainfall totals over the next 24 hours still look to be about half an inch in southeastern Lake County to nearly two inches in the mountains of Humboldt and Del Norte counties. Around an inch to 1.5 inches are forecast for the rest of Northwest California. Showers will continue through Monday. There is about a 10 percent chance for thunderstorms as the main rain band moves in late tonight. Through Sunday afternoon and into Monday, post frontal showers will persist with around another 10 percent chance of isolated thunderstorms. Wind Advisories have been issued for the Del Norte Coast and Northern Coastal Humboldt and the higher terrain areas to the east of Humboldt Bay (i.e. Kneeland) starting this afternoon/early evening and lasting into early tomorrow morning. Weather stations along the Del Norte Coast have already recorded max gusts of at least 40 mph. Remote coastal headlands of the King Range in southwest Humboldt and northwest Mendocino have an 80 percent chances of gusts to 50 mph or higher. The strongest winds will diminish by sunrise on Sunday with showers lingering through Sunday. Another brief reprieve is forecast for late Monday into early Tuesday before another system will impact Northwest California late Tuesday into Wednesday bringing more rain and wind, but also high elevation snow. Models indicate that most of Northwest California will at least see 1.5 to 2 inch precipitation totals in a 48 hour period from late Tuesday evening to Thursday evening. The National Blend of Models (NBM) shows about a 70 percent chance of greater than 3 inches of precipitation in a 48 hour period for southwest Humboldt and northwest Mendocino (the King Range) from Tuesday to Thursday. There is even potential for some higher elevation snow impacts, mainly in Trinity County, during this same timeframe. This next system midweek will continue to be closely monitored. /JLW && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFs)...Valley fog formed in the interior valleys early this morning, including UKI. Low ceilings have started to lift and scatter late this morning, bringing VFR ceilings across the area. Another cold front approaches this evening and overnight bringing gusty south winds of 30 to 40 kts to the coastal terminals. Heavy rain showers may bring IFR to MVFR ceilings and visibilities early Sunday morning to all terminals. JB && .MARINE...A large northwest swell peaked over 30 ft early this morning and has started to subside. Buoys are still reporting seas 20 feet and seas near or over 18 feet are likely to continue into the evening tonight. Meanwhile, a cold front approaches the area this evening and overnight returning strong southerly winds. Strong gales to storm force gusts of up to 45 to 50 kts are possible north of Cape Mendocino as the front passes. Winds ease and turn westerly by mid morning Sunday. Another large swell of 20 to 22 feet at 17 seconds arrives Sunday afternoon, keeping seas above 18 feet through Monday evening. Expect continued storms through next week as the storm track looks to remain fixed over our area through Wednesday at the earliest. JB/DS && .BEACH HAZARDS...The large northwest swell peaked at around 34 feet last night, bringing breaking waves of 30-40 feet with possibly a few sets higher than 50 feet. This swell has diminished to around 18 to 22 feet early this afternoon, but this still results in breaking waves of 22 to 30 feet. This swell will continue to diminish through the evening. The High Surf Warning remains in effect through 4 AM Sunday. A second large swell at 20 to 23 feet at 17 seconds is forecast to arrive late Sunday into Monday. This will likely warrant a high surf advisory with breaking waves of around 22 to 28 feet. High surf in northern California can be very dangerous. It is recommended to stay away from jetties, exposed rocks, steep beaches, and the waterline in general during these events. Large waves can rush up the beach knocking down individuals. Very large logs and tree stumps can also be carried by the waves adding to the hazards on the beach. Low lying parking lots next to beaches could see water inundation and bluffs may be subject to coastal erosion during the peak swell Friday night. Please remain safe and avoid beaches, jetties, and bluffs during periods of high surf. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... High Surf Warning until 4 AM PST Sunday for CAZ101-103-104- 109. Wind Advisory until 1 AM PST Sunday for CAZ101. Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 2 AM PST Sunday for CAZ103-106. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Hazardous Seas Warning until 3 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ450. Gale Warning until 3 AM PST Sunday for PZZ450. Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ455-475. Gale Warning until 3 AM PST Sunday for PZZ455-475. Storm Warning until 3 AM PST Sunday for PZZ470. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

783 FXUS66 KMTR 150543 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 943 PM PST Sat Nov 14 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 103 PM PST Sat Nov 14 2026 - Stay away from the beach! - Very hazardous conditions along the Pacific coast today with breaking waves 25 to 35 feet - Next round of rain and wind expected Sunday and into Monday - Unsettled weather expected to continue into much of the upcoming week && .UPDATE... Issued at 815 PM PST Sat Nov 14 2026 Extremely high surf conditions have impacted the coastal regions today with reports of flooding along the coast in Pacifica and damage to the Capitola Wharf and debris along shoreline roads south of Carmel-by-the-Sea. The High Surf Warning will expire at 4 AM Sunday, with a High Surf Advisory likely to follow. The model trend for a more impactful system on Wednesday and Thursday continues with the forecast rainfall, expected wind speeds, and thunderstorm probabilities all increasing. Model output is starting to converge on a significant low pressure system that may take a direct track over the SF Bay Area through that period. More information will be coming in the full AFD update. DialH && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 103 PM PST Sat Nov 14 2026 (This evening through Sunday night) In wake of yesterday`s frontal passage, isolated to scattered rain showers are forecast to persist across the North Bay and parts of the Bay Area through early evening as many of the CAMs (Convection- Allowing Models) are indicating them to persist. Otherwise, expecting a mix of sun and clouds throughout the day with temperatures slightly below seasonal averages. This is all ahead of our next cold front that is expected to move across the North Bay between 8 AM and 4 PM Sunday, the Bay Area and the Santa Cruz Mountains between noon and 8 PM, and the Central Coast between 4 PM and midnight Monday morning. There are subtle differences in the timing of the front`s arrival, resulting in broader windows of expected arrival times. Southerly winds are forecast to increase ahead of the front, although they are not expected to be as strong as with the previous system. The potential for thunderstorms is also lower. Rain totals will range from 0.50"-1.0" across most of the Bay Area, Santa Cruz County, and the Santa Lucia range, 1.0"-1.5" in the Sonoma County coastal ranges, and 0.25"-0.50" across the interior portions of the East Bay and the Central Coast. Winds will be elevated, but will not be as strong as Friday`s system with southerly gusts of 20 to 30 mph possible across the SF Bay Area, up to 45 mph along the coast and in the higher elevations. In wake of the frontal passage, expecting winds to shift out of the northwest and ease. See the BEACHES section for more details, but to quote: "These waves bring tremendous power that will overpower anyone in the water and cause coastal erosion. The risk of drowning is very high this weekend. Do not go in the water, avoid climbing on the rocks or leaning over seawalls, and never turn your back on the ocean." && .LONG TERM... Issued at 103 PM PST Sat Nov 14 2026 (Monday through next Friday) Another break in rainfall is expected late in the day on Monday and into Tuesday with a mix of sun and clouds. By Tuesday morning, there is the potential for cold weather products (Frost Advisories and/or Cold Weather Advisories) as morning lows are forecast to be in 30s across the North Bay Valleys, southern Salinas Valley, and 40s elsewhere across the Bay Area and Central Coast. Yet another system comes into the region Tuesday afternoon/evening and moves southward across the north Central Coast through Wednesday and potentially lingering into early Friday morning. It is still too early to speak about rainfall amounts, yet there is increasing confidence (as of this writing) of higher rainfall amounts compared to the Sunday/Monday system. There also appears to be greater potential for thunderstorms and stronger winds ahead of the frontal boundary. Best written by my colleague: "The flooding concerns will increase through the next few days as soils saturate and creeks and streams reach bankfull. Beyond the seven-day outlook, the weather pattern remains active with a lean towards rain totals above seasonal averages into the last week of November. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 932 PM PST Sat Nov 14 2026 Currently VFR across the board with conditions to deteriorate by mid to late Sunday morning. A cold front will approach the region overnight with light, southerly winds continuing. Winds strengthen slightly ahead of frontal passage before shifting westerly to northwesterly after passage occurs. Rain chances increase first across the North Bay early Sunday morning and by the late morning/afternoon hours for the rest of the Bay Area. Rain will reach the Central Coast later in the evening. Reductions in visibility and decreases in ceiling heights are likely as the bulk of the rain moves in. Showers will become more scattered in nature by late Sunday and continue into Monday. Vicinity of SFO...VFR. MVFR conditions return by late tomorrow morning/early afternoon as a cold front and rain approach the region. Southerly winds will gradually shift west to northwesterly throughout the day. Rain looks to continue through the end of the TAF period, becoming more scattered in nature around or after 12Z Monday. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Moderate southerly winds continue through the short term with winds shifting more northwesterly towards the end of the TAF period. Rain chances increase after 00Z and continue through the rest of the night. Reductions in visibility and ceiling heights are likely as showers start to arrive. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 932 PM PST Sat Nov 14 2026 Moderate to fresh southerly winds continue across the coastal waters as a cold front approaches from the north. Expect fresh to strong winds to become more widespread overnight and continuing into Sunday with widespread rain. Very hazardous marine conditions and high seas continue into early next week. Significant wave heights have come down slightly from their earlier peak but will remain between 15 to 20 feet through Monday before subsiding Tuesday. Wave heights build again Wednesday into late week as a strong low pressure system moves through the coastal waters and brings widespread rain, near gale to gale force winds, and potential for thunderstorms. && .BEACHES... Issued at 932 PM PST Sat Nov 14 2026 High Surf Warning: A High Surf Warning remains effect through 4AM Sunday. Pretty impressive buoy reports this morning with the highest sig waves exceeding 25-30 ft. Occasional sets of 40-50 ft waves are likely at favored breakpoints (i.e. Mavericks). Swell has peaked and is on the downtrend but wave heights will remain elevated overall. A High Surf Advisory will be issued to replace the High Surf Warning when it expires at 4AM Sunday. A new round of very high swell arrives Monday with the High Surf Advisory to continue from 4AM Sunday through early Tuesday morning. These waves bring tremendous power that will overpower anyone in the water and cause coastal erosion. The risk of drowning is very high this weekend. Do not go in the water, avoid climbing on the rocks or leaning over seawalls, and never turn your back on the ocean. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...High Surf Warning until 4 AM PST Sunday for CAZ006-505-509-529- 530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PST Sunday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Monday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....RGass AVIATION...Kennedy MARINE...Kennedy Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

054 FXUS66 KOTX 150815 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1215 AM PST Sun Nov 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Incoming system to bring light to moderate rains, light mountain snow, and breezy winds through Monday. - Another system impacts the West Coast Wednesday, bringing additional chances for light rain and snow. - Temperatures trending cooler through next week. && .SYNOPSIS... A passing weather system will bring rain, high mountain snow, and breezy winds through Monday. Areas of fog will continue to impact travel each day. Temperatures trend cooler through next week with additional chances for light rain and snow Wednesday through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Monday: A system is slowly pushing through the region with a southwesterly upper level jet support. It is bringing a decent plume of moisture into the Inland Northwest. Precipitable water values will range from 0.6-0.8 of an inch. Rain is likely through the day minus the Central Basin area. The mountain areas have a 25-75% probability of 0.2-0.5 of an inch. The Eastern Basin and valleys range from 0.1-0.4 of an inch. North Cascades has the only snow chances with a 1-3 inch range through Monday morning. Breezy southerly winds across the Columbia Basin and up the Okanogan Valley with sustained speeds of 15-20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph Sunday afternoon. Highs will be in the 40s to low 50s. Lows will be in the 30s. Tuesday and Wednesday: A shallow ridge will bring a brief break from the showery weather. The region will be under a dry, stable air mass. The region will have a cooling trend. It will be short lived as the next low begins to slide south of the region late Wednesday. Highs will be in the 40s. Overnight lows will be in the upper 20s and 30s. Thursday through Saturday: The upper level jet continues to steer the bulk of moisture and energy from the low south of the Pacific Northwest. Ensembles are in decent agreement with the track. Any precip will be in the Idaho Panhandle and extreme Eastern Washington through Thursday. Snow levels will dip to 3000 ft allowing for a chance of snow in these areas. Little to no accumulation is expected. As this low exits on Friday, another one will be right on its heels for Saturday. It is tracking more north and could bring decent precip to the region. Confidence is low on any amounts and timing. Highs continue to be in the 40s. Overnight lows will be in the upper 20s and 30s. /JDC && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: Primarily VFR expected through tonight. A weather system will move in overnight into early tomorrow morning. It is currently near the Cascades and tracking across Eastern WA and North ID from 15Z to 18Z. Ceilings will initially be VFR with the onset of light rain and gradually deteriorate across far eastern Washington and north Idaho Sunday afternoon to 2k-3kft. The exception will be at KPUW and KLWS where easterly winds during the day may inhibit MVFR ceilings until after 00Z. Light southeast winds may also allow or stratus to develop at KEAT Sunday morning between 16-20Z. Ceilings expected to remain MVFR through end of the TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is moderate to high confidence for ceilings to remain VFR for the TAF sites until Sunday afternoon. There is moderate confidence for ceilings to gradually to lower to MVFR at KGEG/KSFF/KCOE with lower confidence on the timing for the trend to MVFR for KPUW and KLWS. Moderate confidence in MVFR conditions for KEAT between 16-20Z. Low confidence on the timing of ceiling improving to VFR. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 48 37 46 35 42 32 / 90 80 10 10 10 0 Coeur d`Alene 46 36 46 34 42 32 / 90 90 20 10 10 10 Pullman 48 36 45 33 42 31 / 90 90 40 20 10 0 Lewiston 51 41 49 38 45 34 / 80 90 70 50 30 0 Colville 47 33 48 30 45 27 / 90 50 10 0 0 0 Sandpoint 45 35 45 33 42 32 / 90 90 30 10 10 10 Kellogg 47 36 43 34 41 30 / 90 100 50 30 20 10 Moses Lake 52 35 48 31 44 30 / 50 10 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 51 37 47 34 43 35 / 30 10 0 0 0 10 Omak 51 37 48 33 45 30 / 90 30 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

633 FXUS66 KPDT 150547 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 947 PM PST Sat Nov 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Active weather pattern will return this evening with mostly rain across the region, and light high mountain snow developing by Sunday - Breezy to locally gusty southerly winds across portions of central and northeast OR will continue through the weekend - A train of upper low pressure systems will bring progressively cooler conditions across the forecast area, with light to locally moderate mountain snow accumulations, and potentially a dusting in portions of central OR && .DISCUSSION... Water vapor satellite imagery this afternoon shows an upper level low and surface cold/occluded front approaching the PacNW from the northeast Pacific. Meanwhile, there is increasing cloud cover along the Cascade crest into central OR, with partly cloudy conditions across the remainder of the forecast area. Area-wide radar imagery shows very light showery activity staying west of the Cascade crest at this time. Today: A transient upper level ridge is sliding across the region this afternoon, and is responsible for the dry conditions with mostly partly cloudy skies across the forecast area. By tonight, the transient ridge will push to the east as the upper low and attendant fronts approach closer to the PacNW and BC. Surface pressure gradients across the Blue mountains are expected to strengthen in response, producing breezy winds along the Base of the Blue mountains and through the Grande Ronde valley. In fact, southerly winds between 25-35 mph with gusts 40-50mph are expected to develop later this evening and persist overnight in the Grande Ronde valley when the pressure gradient is at it`s peak. Sunday through Thursday: Tomorrow, the upper low in the northeast Pacific will swing the cold/occluded front across the region, with a broad upper level trough following Monday through Tuesday. The incoming frontal boundary will push a band of precipitation across the region throughout Sunday, with the frontal boundary stalling across far eastern OR/WA Sunday night into Monday morning. Monday, the upper trough will drop into the PacNW, pushing whats left of the frontal boundary into the northern Rockies, with precipitation mainly limited to the Cascades, Blues, Elkhorn crest, and the high terrain across Wallowa County. During the peak precipitation on Sunday, snow levels will mainly be above 6kft in the mountains, resulting in any snow accumulations being limited to the Cascade peaks, with a rain/snow mix down to around 5kft. Behind the frontal boundary, snow levels will drop to around 4kft, resulting in light snow developing along the Cascades Sunday evening through Monday morning, with rain transitioning into snow along the eastern mountains late Monday morning into the late afternoon. In addition to lowering snow levels, temperatures will cool region-wide through Monday, with mod-high confidence(65-80%) in afternoon high temperatures in the mid 40s to low 50s. Tuesday through Thursday, ensemble cluster members are in good agreement that a transient ridge will slide into the PacNW Tuesday with dry conditions. Tuesday night through Thursday, ensemble guidance now has an upper low swinging into and across southern OR and northern CA, with disagreement amongst ensemble solutions in the strength of the incoming low. For Tuesday, while the ridge is overhead conditions will remain dry, however temperatures will remain cool as a cold airmass remains over the region. By late Tuesday night, the next round of precipitation will arrive to the Cascades, then lift northeast across the region as the upper low pushes inland. There is moderate confidence (50-60%) that snow levels will lower down to around 2.5-3.5kft Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, then increasing to around 3-4kft by Wednesday afternoon and evening. This will result in a light rain/snow mix in some lower elevation locations (confidence 35-50%) Wednesday morning, while there is moderate confidence (35-55%) in 2 to 3 inches of snow accumulations across the Cascades and eastern mountains through Wednesday night. Late Wednesday into Thursday, forecast confidence is low (15-20%) owing to positioning disagreements of the upper low as it continues to move inland as well as 24 hour run to run differences amongst ensemble solutions. From the most recent ensemble run, ensemble cluster solutions range from light mountain snow continuing through Thursday, light mountain snow and lower elevation rain continuing through Thursday, or light rain and mountain snow ending Thursday morning. Lawhorn/82 && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Predominantly VFR conditions for all TAF sites until 06z on the 16th. Low level wind shear present for KPDT(6z - 12z), and KALW(6z- 12z) at 2000ft with southerly winds at 40kt. KBDN(6z-17z) at 2000ft with south southwesterly winds at 40kt. Light rain and rain showers for TAF sites as frontal precipitation band move eastward. Periods of MVFR conditions related to low cloud bases present, with highest confidence at KPDT and KALW closer to the end of the TAF period. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 42 55 37 48 / 30 80 90 10 ALW 45 52 41 47 / 10 80 90 30 PSC 40 57 36 52 / 50 50 50 0 YKM 37 54 31 51 / 70 20 0 0 HRI 41 56 36 50 / 50 70 60 0 ELN 33 48 26 45 / 70 20 10 0 RDM 35 51 25 47 / 20 30 10 0 LGD 37 47 35 46 / 0 90 90 70 GCD 36 50 35 47 / 0 90 90 50 DLS 42 52 37 49 / 70 60 30 20 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...Wind Advisory until 7 AM PST Sunday for ORZ049-507. && $$ DISCUSSION...82 AVIATION...07/86

456 FXUS65 KREV 142028 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1228 PM PST Sat Nov 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * A travel window opens through Sunday, as clearing skies and dry conditions return. * A weaker storm will likely bring snow to Sierra passes and rain in the valleys late Sunday night into Monday. * A stronger and colder storm Wednesday into Thursday could bring heavy Sierra snow and snow down to western Nevada valley floors. && .DISCUSSION... Friday night`s storm brought a burst of snow to the Sierra with totals of 7-14" above 7000 ft and 2-5" below 7000 ft to lake level around Tahoe, and for higher. Rainfall ranged from 0.20-0.50" near and west of US-395 for eastern CA and the main urban areas of western NV, with locally higher amounts up to 1" for foothills west of Reno-Carson-Minden, the Tahoe basin and western Mono County. Along the Sierra crest, liquid totals were generally 1-1.5". The remainder of today through Sunday afternoon brings a good travel window for crossing the Sierra passes, as the next storm is trending a bit slower. While rain may begin across northeast CA Sunday afternoon, the next round of snow for main passes such as I-80 and US-50 is now favoring Sunday night-Monday. Sunday Night-Monday Storm: * While less intense than Friday`s storm, a band of snow is poised to set up as soon as late Sunday evening across the Tahoe region, with best potential during the early-mid morning hours Monday. Expect winter travel conditions mainly near and above 7000 feet for the Monday AM commute with snowfall rates near 1"/hour, where a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued. This band will progress slowly southward along the Sierra through Monday afternoon and lose some of its punch, with lesser totals of 2-5" near the crest in Mono County. Colder air and residual snow showers may keep patchy slick conditions going for the Monday PM commute near the Sierra. * For lower elevations, mainly light rain (0.10" or less, locally up to 0.25") is expected across far western NV Monday AM, pushing eastward to the US-95 corridor Monday PM. As shower activity winds down by late Monday, colder air may yield a few snowflakes down to near 5500 feet, but no accumulation is expected. Tuesday - Break Between Storms: * Cold morning start with teens in the Sierra and mid 20s in western NV, with highs only in the 40s-near 50 for lower elevations and near 40 for Sierra communities. Dry conditions will allow for another travel window over the Sierra Tuesday through most of Tuesday night before a stronger storm arrives. Wednesday-Thursday Storm: * MORE SNOW! This storm is poised to bring another round of Sierra snow and valley rain starting Wednesday which may continue through much of Thursday, with potential to exceed the combined totals of the first two storms from yesterday and Monday. Early projections call for 1-2 feet near the Sierra crest and 6+" down to lake level around Tahoe. Gusty winds are expected to spread into lower elevations Wednesday, with stronger Sierra ridge gusts of 70+ mph. Snow levels could drop to 5000 feet or lower by early Thursday through the storm`s end Thursday night, which may impact commutes for Reno-Carson City-Minden with the first snowfall of the season. The duration of this storm is still in flux as a closed low following Wednesday`s initial moisture band shows some spread in its eventual track, which would enhance or limit the overall Sierra totals, and determine whether snow reaches the lower elevations. Friday-Next Week - Mainly Dry and Chilly, then More Storms toward Thanksgiving?: * Temperatures will be 10-15 degrees below average Friday, with highs only in the upper 30s near the Sierra to mid 40s in lower elevations, followed by a slow upward temperature trend through next weekend. Expect cold nights for late week-next weekend, even dipping to the teens for lower elevations especially if any snow cover is present. Showers may linger into Friday as the Wed-Thurs storm departs, but overall drier conditions are favored into next weekend. However, longer range guidance indicates a potential for additional storm activity near the peak Thanksgiving holiday travel period, so keep posted to our forecast updates and consider alternate plans to avoid the longest delays. MJD && .AVIATION... * KRNO...VFR thru Sunday. Increasing SW ridge winds gusts 40-45 kt Sunday AM with increased turbulence/mountain wave activity through the day. SFC winds light, becoming south with gusts near 15 kt after 21Z. * Regional Outlook thru Sunday...VFR except patchy FZFG with LIFR conditions at KTRK Sun AM mainly 13-17Z. Increasing SW ridge winds with gusts 40-45 kt Sunday AM increased turbulence and mountain wave activity through the day and periods of LLWS at KTVL/KTRK. SFC winds light, becoming south with gusts 15-20 kt after 19Z for KTRK/KTVL and after 21Z for KCXP/KMEV. * 24-72 Hour Outlook...The next storm brings periods of rain/snow and IFR conditions Monday AM (most likely 08-16Z) for KTRK/KTVL, with a shorter period of snow reaching KMMH by Monday PM (most likely 22-03Z). Western NV sites mostly VFR except short periods of MVFR due to rain showers Monday. Winds mainly light, except for stronger ridge wind gusts of 45-55 kt Sunday night with continued turbulence and periods of LLWS, then decreasing Monday. For Tuesday, VFR for all sites except potential for AM FZFG at KTRK (60+% chance). && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM Sunday to 7 PM PST Monday NVZ002. CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM Sunday to 7 PM PST Monday CAZ072. && $$

458 FXUS66 KSTO 142100 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 100 PM PST Sat Nov 14 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Break in active weather today, with cooler high temperatures. - A storm system arrives Sunday bringing widespread Valley/Foothill rain, mountain snow, and breezy southerly winds through Monday; not as impactful as recent system. - Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 4 PM Sunday through 10 PM Monday for the Sierra and Lassen Volcanic National Park above 6000 feet. - Colder, wetter weather system will arrive by the middle of next week bringing widespread precipitation, moderate to heavy mountain snow, and gusty southerly winds. && .DISCUSSION... ...Today... Dry weather prevails across interior NorCal this afternoon. High temperatures will reach into the upper 50s to mid 60s in the Valley and Delta, with upper 30s to 50s in the higher elevations. Our next shot at precipitation will arrive by early Sunday morning as another storm arrives. ...Sunday through Monday... The next system arrives early Sunday morning, bringing widespread rain, mountain snow and breezy southerly winds. Latest WPC guidance indicates around 0.25 to 1" inches of precipitation in the Valley, with 1.5" to nearly 2" over the mountains. The highest precipitation totals are expected across the northern Sacramento Valley and foothills and mountains. Snow levels initially start around 6500-7500 feet Sunday, then drop to around 5000-6000 feet Monday. Total snowfall accumulations of 2 to 6 inches are expected above 6000 feet, with up to 14 inches near Lassen Park. This could bring slippery roads, reduced visibilities at times, and mountain travel delays. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for elevations above 6000 feet for the northern Sierra and Lassen Park. There is the potential for minor accumulations down to around 5500 feet. Periods of breezy southerly winds will also develop Sunday ahead of the system`s arrival, with gusts in the Valley around 20 to 35 mph. Most of the area will see an end to widespread precipitation by Monday afternoon, with lingering showers over the mountains through Monday night. ...Tuesday & Beyond... With potentially clear skies behind the departing system, cold morning lows are forecast on Tuesday, with low to mid 30s across the northern Sacramento Valley and teens to 20s in the mountains. This could bring the potential for morning frost. Break in activity for most of Tuesday across interior NorCal, then a colder, wetter system arrives late Tuesday night bringing renewed chances for widespread rain, gusty southerly winds, and heavy mountain snow. Latest forecast runs have increased rainfall totals and snow totals across interior NorCal. Current NBM probabilities of at least 12 inches of snow above 5000 feet are around 70-100% from Wednesday-Thursday night, and a 40-70% chance of seeing 2 feet of snow. Snow levels will be lower with this system, with accumulating snow above 4000 feet and potentially even lower. Valley/Foothill rain probabilities of at least 1" inch are sitting around 60-80%. Gusty southerly winds look to develop Wednesday into Thursday morning, with latest forecast runs bringing around 50-75% probabilities of wind gusts reaching at least 35 mph on Wednesday. There is also the potential for isolated thunderstorms with this system, with best chances on Wednesday (10-15% probability). We will continue to monitor trends on this system, as snow levels may be significantly lower than the previous storms. Make sure to keep checking the forecast for updates as we move through the weekend and into early next week. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions with patchy MVFR/IFR ceilings at TAF sites through tonight, then local MVFR/IFR in RA/BR after 12Z-18Z Sunday. Winds generally less than 12 kts through 03Z Sunday, then southerly winds increase up to 10-20 kts with gusts 20-30 kts. Southwest wind gusts over the Sierra Crest 35 to 45 kts after 18Z Sunday along with mountain MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions in RA/SN. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 10 PM PST Monday for Lassen Volcanic NP-Sierra (Cal-Tuo) Above 5000 ft-Sierra (El Dorado-Amador) Above 5000 ft-Sierra (Sierra-Placer) Above 5000 ft. && $$

502 FXUS65 KMSO 142145 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 245 PM MST Sat Nov 14 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Mild and showery conditions with overnight fog and low stratus continue through Monday with generally light precipitation amounts. - Colder air arrives Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing mountain snow and a mix of rain and snow to valleys. Expect scattered light showers across western Montana and north central Idaho through this evening. Precipitation will be light, with snow levels remaining above 5,000 feet, confining any snowfall to higher mountains and passes like Lost Trail. Valley fog remains a hazard through Monday morning, particularly along and north of Interstate 90 in the Flathead and Mission valleys where low clouds have persisted. Fog redevelopment in Missoula tonight is less certain due to lingering mid- and high-level clouds that will limit surface cooling. However, if clearing develops this evening, fog development will become more likely. A colder system arrives Tuesday into Wednesday, lowering overnight snow levels to near 3,000 feet. Mountain areas across north central Idaho, Lemhi County and Southwest Montana, including Homestake Pass, Georgetown Lake, Butte, and high passes in Lemhi County can expect between 2 to 6 inches of snow. Elsewhere, valley locations will primarily experience daytime rain that may transition to light snow overnight. Any minor valley snow accumulations will melt during the day but pose a risk of refreezing into patchy ice on bridges and overpasses overnight. By Thursday, another low-pressure system dropping south will maintain chances for periodic light showers, though its exact track and regional impacts are still being monitored. && .AVIATION... Scattered light rain showers will persist across western Montana and north central Idaho through this evening under an active trough axis. Precipitation will remain light with snow levels above 5,000 feet, confining any high-elevation snowfall to high elevations. As precipitation ends, the primary aviation hazard will transition to radiation fog and low stratus through Monday morning, driven by saturated low levels, rapid mid level drying, and clearing skies that will allow the surface to decouple and temperature dewpoint spreads to drop by 15/06Z. High confidence exists for LIFR conditions locking in at KGPI, where ceilings hacen`t improved above IFR this afternoon. At KMSO and KHRF, prevailing MVFR to IFR conditions are expected as residual moisture cools, though dense fog at KMSO could be mitigated if easterly boundary layer winds fail to calm and remain above 5 knots. Conversely, KBTM and KSMN are forecast to remain predominantly VFR. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

568 FXUS65 KBOI 150533 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 1033 PM MST Sat Nov 14 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool and dry conditions expected tonight through Sunday morning with patchy valley fog in the mountains. - Light valley rain and mountain snow tomorrow evening in southeast Oregon, moving into southwest Idaho by Monday morning. - Cooler and unsettled pattern continuing next week with snow levels potentially lowering to valley floors by the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM /Through Monday Night/... Issued 207 PM MST SAT NOV 14 2026 The cold front has shifted to eastern Idaho this afternoon, with some lingering stratus cloud cover over the West Central/Boise Mountains. Trinity Mountain SNOTEL reported 7 inches of snow with this frontal passage and rainfall totals in the Snake River Valley ranged from 0.10-0.50 inches. Cool, dry, and breezy conditions will continue through most of the day on Sunday, with patchy fog tomorrow morning in higher elevation valleys. Another line of valley rain showers and mountain snow will move into southeast Oregon by midday on Sunday. Rainfall accumulations will range from 0.05-0.15 inches of rain with only a few inches of snow at higher peaks. This line will then gradually move into southwest Idaho overnight Sunday into Monday. Snow levels will stay between 5500-6500 feet MSL through Sunday and during the day on Monday, dropping off to 4500-5500 by Monday night. This will bring minor snow accumulations on Highway 55 and 21 on Monday night. Temperatures will linger a few degrees above normal today and tomorrow, still about ten degrees cooler than it has been this week. && .LONG TERM /Tuesday through Saturday/... Issued 207 PM MST SAT NOV 14 2026 Weather in the long term is seasonally typical in terms of temperature, but with continual moisture supporting rounds of precipitation through next week. Tuesday, temperatures finally cool to near normal as a weakening longwave trough moves through the region. Down from 5-10 degrees above normal the day before, cooler air settles in for the week and drops snow levels to around 4-5 kft MSL. These higher snow levels will support a couple inches of snow in mountains and mountain valleys. In lower elevations, up to 0.2 inches of rainfall are possible. Precipitation heads east and the seasonal temperatures and cooler air mass move in. There is a very low chance of snow in lower elevations with this system, as snow levels aren`t projected to fall to valley floors until Wednesday morning; well after precipitation has ended. Conditions briefly dry out Wednesday as a ridge warms up the cold morning temps back to normal that afternoon. However, Wednesday evening, a closed Pacific low pressure system brings a more prolonged precipitation event. Precipitation with this system is most likely Wednesday evening through Thursday morning on the eastern side of the low. Guidance suggests the core of the low will track south of the forecast area, meaning as the peak moisture leaves the area, lingering wraparound moisture will continue precipitation through at least Friday morning with isolated coverage through Saturday morning. Again, snow levels around 4-5 kft MSL will support a couple inches of snow on smaller mountains and in mountain valleys. But, on the highest ridges and summits 6 to 10 inches of snow become possible as snow ratios rise in colder temperatures and orographic lift increases precipitation efficiency. Again, up to 0.2 inches of rainfall are possible in lower elevations. The colder air behind the closed low only drops temperatures by a few degrees, but enough for snow levels to approach valley floors by Saturday morning. With a 10% chance of precipitation in trailing showers there is again a low chance for valley snow. A ridge will begin to build between the exiting low and a strengthening closed low off the Pacific NW coast through the rest of the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z Sunday through Monday/... Issued 1029 PM MST SAT NOV 14 2026 Generally VFR through Sunday morning with increasing clouds from the west. Showers develop over eastern Oregon after 15/15Z, affecting KBNO/KBKE, with MVFR ceilings likely after 15/22Z. Mountains obscured in eastern Oregon. Surface winds: S-SE 5-15 kt, with gusts to 25 kt on Sunday afternoon in southwest Idaho. Winds aloft at 10kft: SW 15-25 kt. KBOI...VFR with BKN ceilings AOA 8 kft. Surface winds: SE 10-15kt. Gusts to 25 kt after 15/17Z, weakening late Sunday night. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....JR SHORT TERM...SA LONG TERM....JM

820 FXUS65 KLKN 142026 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1226 PM PST Sat Nov 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Cooler temperatures continue through tomorrow. * Dry and quiet weather expected Sunday. * A second weather system will bring periods of rain and high elevated snowfall across Nevada Monday and Tuesday. * A third weather system is expected to bring in periods of additional rain and elevated snowfall across Nevada Wednesday and Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Saturday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Skies remain partly cloudy at this time as residual low-level moisture remains stubborn. Winds are still breezy in the downslope areas of West Wendover and lee-side of mountain ranges but should continue to relax as the day wears on. For the rest of today and tonight, look for a shortwave ridge axis to pass over the forecast area, bringing quiet conditions to northern and central Nevada tonight. Overnight low temperatures will dip into the 20s to low 30s. By Sunday, all models are showing upper level low pressure off the west coast of the United States. The previously mentioned ridge will be shifting well off to the east. Southwest flow will commence over the forecast area with afternoon high temperatures climbing into the 50s and 60s. No precipitation is expected in the morning. Model simulations are bringing the upper trough onto the coast of California late in the day Sunday in California. This system is expected to slowly track east into California during the overnight period, with light showery precipitation beginning across western and central Humboldt county Monday morning. Overnight lows will be in the 30s. The upper trough will continue its slow eastward trek during the Monday timeframe. Strong winds are expected to develop Monday afternoon, especially across central Nevada. South to southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts 35 to 40 mph are expected mainly across central Nevada during the afternoon. Highs on Monday will be in the 40s and 50s. Snow levels will start out rather high at 7000 feet and above during the afternoon. On Monday night and Tuesday, the main trough axis is expected to cross western California with a cold front passing through the state during this time. Overnight lows will be in the 20s. Snow levels will eventually drop to around 4500 to 5500 feet by Tuesday morning. All told, many valley locations will see a dusting to an inch in the north, with about an inch or two in central Nevada. Over the higher passes and summits along roadways in the central parts, about one to four inches. Finally, across the higher passes and summits in the north, up to two inches are possible. The rain and snow will be slow to clear during the Tuesday timeframe with near normal daytime highs in the 40s. Winds will be light. A shortwave ridge will bring quiet conditions but it will not last long. On its heels is the next in a series of systems that will affect northern and central Nevada. This system will push across the forecast area during the mid to latter portions of next week. This is expected to be a much colder system and the area could see the snow levels dropping to the valley floors with minor accumulations possible. Will need to continue monitoring this system for possible winter headline products. Highs will generally be in the 30s and 40s with lows in the teens and 20s. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Minor edits were made to the short term wind grids to bump up sustained wind speeds and wind gusts in central Nevada on Monday. Confidence is high with respect to the dry weather through tomorrow. Confidence remains moderate in the next system affecting the area late Sunday through Tuesday. Confidence in the third system is low at this time due to differences in strength and timing. && .AVIATION... Look for VFR conditions across all terminals for the next 24 hours. Winds will remain light at less than 15 knots. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...86