506 FXUS66 KSEW 192025 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 125 PM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level ridging building into the region will lend itself to much above normal temperatures throughout the first half of the week. Dry conditions are expected to accompany the heat for elevated fire weather concerns. The ridge will weaken in the second half of the week as low pressure moves up from the south and may reintroduce chances for thunderstorms in the forecast for later this week. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Mostly clear this afternoon with some scattered clouds over the terrain. The warmup will begin in earnest through the middle of the week as temperatures climb into the upper 80s and low 90s throughout much of the lowland locations. As such, a heat advisory has been issued beginning on Tuesday and lasting into late Wednesday night. Expect widespread Moderate HeatRisk levels on Monday, increasing to Major for the urban heat islands and areas of the south Puget Sound on Tuesday. Warming overnight lows on Tuesday and Wednesday morning contributed to the bump in HeatRisk levels. Overnight lows are expected to be as warm as 60 to 65 degrees for many locations, meaning that adequate relief from the heat of the day may not be fully realized, especially for those who are sensitive to the heat or lack cooling. Temperatures in far northwestern Washington, including the Bellingham and San Juan county area, may be subject to being a few degrees cooler due to smoke coming in tomorrow from active fires in British Columbia. As the flow goes northerly, smoke gets into the Fraser river valley and exits in and around the Bellingham area. A more noticeable haze may be present in these areas tomorrow. Please refer to your local clean air agency for information on the air quality readings and forecast. As the ridge continues to amplify, temperatures reach the upper 80s to low 90s on Tuesday, whilst continuing to be very dry. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The aforementioned Heat Advisory will remain in effect through late Wednesday night as temperatures remain in the low 90s. While temperatures will be decreasing through the end of the week, there is still considerable uncertainty as to the fate of the remnant tropical moisture from Elida or possible monsoonal moisture re-entering the northwest. Specifics aren`t in focus yet, though the ensemble cluster analysis shows signals for a trough coming up the west coast, but in various positions which does have a bearing on what to expect west of the Cascade crest. Some model solutions show the low spinning up some showers in the area come Thursday morning. Thunderstorm chances are low at this time, but cannot be fully ruled out for Thursday and Friday. With the solution possibly being a low pressure system traversing the region late in the week, the resumption of onshore flow can be expected, cooling things off by up to 10 degrees from the peak heat of the week. Temperatures as of now for the weekend are forecast to be in the mid 70s. && .AVIATION... Stratus has now retreated to the immediate coastline, and will remain like so through the remainder of the day for VFR conditions today. Stratus looks to redevelop tonight along the coast, but remain west of the inland terminals. VFR conditions look to otherwise continue tomorrow with high clouds overhead. Increasing smoke across northwest WA on Monday may begin to limit both horizontal and slant-range visibility by Monday afternoon. N/NW winds 5 to 10 kt become 5 kt or less overnight and remain light into Monday. KSEA...VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. NW winds 5 to 10 kt becoming NE 5 kt or less overnight. N winds continue tomorrow. 62 && .MARINE... High pressure will remain centered offshore with lower pressure inland through the week. Breezy northwest winds will continue over the coastal waters today and tonight, making for steep 6 to 8 ft seas. Winds and seas are on track to ease early Monday morning. Onshore gradients will ease through the early part of the week as thermally-induced low pressure develops across Western Washington and Oregon. Stronger onshore flow and pushes down the Strait look to resume in the latter half of the week as the thermal trough shifts eastward. There is more uncertainty in the pattern in the long term, with the potential for disturbances to move across the area late week into next weekend. 62 && .FIRE WEATHER... The building ridge will come with very dry conditions. Minimum relative humidity values are expected to be in the 20 to 30 percent range, with drier locations in the south Sound capable of getting into the upper teens. Elevated fire weather conditions are going to be in place through the middle of the week. While there is still a lot of uncertainty regarding the low pressure system off the coast from what was once tropical storm Elida, chances for thunderstorms late in the week are low at this point, but cannot be fully ruled out. Any thunderstorms that develop after another round of hot and very dry conditions pose a risk of additional ignitions from lightning. 21 && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for City of Seattle-Downtown Everett / Marysville Area- Eastern Kitsap County-Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca- Eastside-Foothills and Valleys of Central King County- Foothills and Valleys of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Thurston and Lewis Counties-Foothills and Valleys of the North Cascades- Foothills of the Western and Southern Olympic Peninsula- Lake Crescent Area Including US 101-Lowlands of Lewis and Southern Thurston Counties-Lowlands of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish Counties-Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-Middle Chehalis River Valley-Northern Hood Canal-Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Port Townsend Area- Shoreline / Lynnwood / South Everett Area-Southern Hood Canal. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Monday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm. && $$

183 FXUS66 KPQR 192022 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 122 PM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026 .SYNOPSIS...A strengthening ridge will keep temperatures on an upward trend through at least the middle of the week. Inland areas will slowly climb towards the low to mid 90s by Tuesday and Wednesday, with the coast noticeably cooler. Hottest conditions Tuesday and Wednesday. Dry weather will persist, and heat-related impacts will become a growing concern across the interior lowlands before temperatures ease slightly late week. && .DISCUSSION...Tonight through Saturday...Minimal change in the overall forecast through at least the middle of the week. High pressure anchored over The Great Basin will slowly build northwestward, which will bring warm and dry conditions for the majority of the CWA. Weak onshore flow near the surface persists, especially closer to the coast, it will only modestly slow the warming rather than stop it. As a result, temperatures will continue to rise each day inland, while coastal communities stay cooler but still trend a bit warmer as well. There remains some uncertainty in the forecast as southerly flow will develop through the first half of the week as a series of lows push northward towards the Olympic Peninsula. Also, the southerly flow will push smoke into the region as well. The hottest stretch of the forecast appears to be Monday through Wednesday, as the ridge reaches maximum strength. Confidence remains fairly high that Monday will bring widespread upper 80s to lower 90s across the interior lowlands, with the coast running around 10-20 degrees F cooler. After that, the forecast uncertainty increase as models and there ensembles are having a challenging time dealing with a series of lows moving northward from the central and southern Pacific for Tuesday and Wednesday. The first low in question is currently centered around 35.53 N/132.06 W, which puts it well west of the central California coast. This low will bring the potential for monsoonal moisture into the region, but models have continued to keep any moisture well east of the Cascades. The more probable impacts would come from whatever remains of TS Elida as it also moves northward and injects remnant tropical moisture into the broader pattern. If that moisture spreads north, even subtle increases in cloud cover could have a noticeable effect on high temperatures. In addition to the potential for cloud cover, southerly flow would also bring smoke/haze from fires in southern OR into the region and that could also result in slightly cooler temperatures than what ensemble guidance is showing. Still, ensemble guidance and cluster analysis continue to show this uncertainty by carrying a broader range of possible outcomes in the middle of the week. However, recent cluster analysis looks to have trended towards the drier solutions when compared to previous runs. Even with those details still being worked out, confidence remains high in the broader message: Tuesday and Wednesday are still favored to be the hottest days for much of the interior. Probabilities remain supportive of widespread 90-degree highs across inland valleys, with the best chances occurring Tuesday and Wednesday. Current deterministic guidance has daytime highs, for inland valleys around 95-97 degrees F. NBM probabilistic guidance is showing a 10-25% chance of daytime highs at or above 100 degrees F on Tuesday and Wednesday. Given that the region will very likely see multiple days of above normal heat and very limited overnight cooling, most inland areas will experience Moderate HeatRisk. As a result, have issued a Heat Advisory starting Tuesday morning through at least Wednesday evening for The Greater Portland/Vancouver metro area, The Columbia River Gorge (to include Hood River County) and Kelso/Longview, WA. Also, there a 35-60% probability of Major HeatRisk for those two days for the areas discussed above. So, drink plenty of fluids, stay in a cool place during the heat of the day, stay out of the sunshine, and check up on relatives and neighbors. As Thursday/Friday approaches, guidance still points towards a modest weakening of the ridge as a broader trough begins to influence the Pacific Northwest and nudges the ridge eastward. That should allow temperatures to edge downward a few degrees late in the week, though temperatures may still run slightly above average for late July. Dry weather is expected to continue through much of the period, with no appreciable precipitation in the forecast at this time. /42~12 && .AVIATION...Predominately VFR conditions across the area Sunday afternoon. Marine stratus likely to return along the coast again Sunday night/Monday morning, but there is uncertainty amongst the guidance on timing. Some guidance indicates it could return as early as 03-06z Mon with others holding off until 08-12z Mon. Expect MVFR/IFR conditions again, improving by 17-19z Mon. VFR conditions inland through the next 24 hours. Expect north to northwest winds 7-12 kt inland with occasional gusts up to 15-20 kt and 10-15 kt along the coast with gusts up to 25 kt. Winds decrease by 04-08z Mon. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours. Northwest winds 7-10 kt, decreasing by 06-08z Mon. -03 && .MARINE...A typical summertime pattern will continue through early this week with persistent north to northwest winds over the coastal waters. Winds will be strongest during the afternoon and evening hours each day, especially today for the waters south of Cape Falcon. Expect wind gusts up to 25 kt, with seas becoming steep due to a fresh northwest swell around 6-8 ft at 7-8 seconds. Strongest winds and steepest seas will be in the waters south of Cape Falcon. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all the waters through Monday morning. Winds decrease below 20 kts early Monday morning, with seas becoming less steep through the day as the swell decreases. Benign conditions expected Tuesday into late next week. -12/03 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for ORZ108-109-111-112-115-119>122. WA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for WAZ204>207-209-210. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Monday for PZZ251-271. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Monday for PZZ252-253-272- 273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

173 FXUS66 KMFR 192346 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 446 PM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026 .Updated AVIATION Discussion... && .AVIATION...20/00Z TAFs...VFR conditions will prevail for most areas with mid-high level clouds streaming over the region. Wildfire smoke will continue to bring periods of MVFR visibilities and/or ceilings to the valleys south of the Rogue-Umpqua Divide, the Shasta Valley and the Klamath Basin as well as the northern portions of Lake County. The marine layer remains just off the immediate coast, and while VFR conditions prevail for most coastal locations, expect the quick return of LIFR conditions once afternoon winds ease by 03z. IFR conditions are already present from Cape Arago northward, including North Bend. Improvement to VFR is expected again by late Monday morning. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 203 PM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026/ KEY MESSAGES... * Smoke will persist for Jackson, Klamath, and Siskiyou counties, with some temporary afternoon into early evening improvement expected for Klamath and Siskiyou counties. Also, an influx of smoke into Lake County today from fires in central Oregon. * Thunderstorms re-enter the forecast beginning Monday, mainly for the Cascades and east side. The highest risk will be on Tuesday and Wednesday, including lesser chances for areas west of the Cascades. * Remaining hot inland during the next week with highs generally 5 to 10 degrees above normal (mid 80s to mid 90s on the east side and lower 90s to 103 for west side valleys). Meantime, near or slightly below normal temperatures at the coast will reach the 60s. DISCUSSION...Our weather pattern for the next week will continue to be characterized by low pressure over the eastern Pacific and ridging centered well inland. The low that had a large influence in bringing gusty late day winds over the past few days has now moved northeast into British Columbia, leaving a more typical pressure gradient/weaker winds inland this afternoon. It will also result in a greater influence of the ridge with a further 2 or 3 degrees of warming anticipated today, compared to yesterday. Late today into tonight and continuing into Monday, a plume of monsoonal moisture aloft will bring high clouds into the area. These clouds have already started filtering in, and will continue this evening. This could generate a few showers, and the convection allowing ensembles are suggesting that showers will be possible, mainly over the higher terrain, but most of any precipitation will evaporate before reaching the ground. Weak instability with shortwave disturbances could produce a couple of lightning strikes tonight into Monday morning. But, of greater certainty is that on Monday afternoon a few thunderstorms will be focused on the Crater Lake region of the Cascades into northern Klamath County. On Tuesday into Wednesday, stronger southerly flow aloft is expected between a trough offshore tracking northward and the persistent ridge over the Great Basin. There is still a modest amount of uncertainty in the convective forecast, with still some possibility of scattered thunderstorm coverage of a broad portion of our area, to include portions of the west side. But, the highest probability is for isolated coverage on both days...focused east of the Cascades. It would be of note that the storms look to trend wetter over time. Though the highest precipitable water values are likely east of our area, with values at around 200% of normal, this could cause some significant rain in thunderstorms. And while a widespread severe weather outbreak is not likely, there always seems to be a few storms that overachieve and produce strong, gusty winds. This looks most likely on Wednesday. The region of greatest instability looks to shift northeastward on Thursday, possibly lingering into northern and/or eastern portions of the east side. For Friday into next weekend, a shift to an onshore flow pattern is likely with a more stable, dry air mass. MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Sunday, July 19, 2026...Gusty north winds will continue with steep seas to very steep seas through this evening. The strongest winds and very steep seas are expected from Port Orford south beyond 5 nm from shore. Steep, short period seas and areas of gusty winds will linger across the waters later tonight into Monday evening. Seas will transition on Monday from wave dominated to fresh swell. Conditions gradually improve late Monday through Tuesday into Wednesday, with below advisory conditions. Northwest swell dominated seas may increase slightly late in the week. FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM PDT Sunday, July 19, 2026... There is an overall increase in confidence in the forecast, and the story for the next week is largely consistent with the inherited forecast. The three main aspects of the fire weather forecast for the next week are: first, the extent of hot, dry, and breezy/windy conditions, second, the potential risk and coverage of thunderstorms during Monday through Thursday, and lastly, a likely transition to dry and slightly cooler weather late next week that would be accompanied by stronger than normal east side westerly winds. The weak trend toward not quite so extreme dryness and normal strength of afternoon breezes will continue this evening. This slight moistening of the air mass today will be accompanied by a late day increase of high clouds, and perhaps some east side cumulus buildups. As has been advertised, with relatively warm air aloft limiting the extend of instability, and high elevation of the moisture plume, it still looks like the main result of an influx of monsoonal moisture from late this afternoon through tonight into Monday morning will be to produce a thick blanket of cirrus. Radar returns are expected to be mostly virga, with the higher terrain having the best chance of isolated light showers reaching the ground. The probability of showers will be highest during Monday morning. Given the arrival of shortwave disturbances over our area in the southerly flow between the trough offshore and Great Basin centered ridge, it is not out of the question for a few lightning strikes to occur with weak, short- lived thunderstorms. A 5%-10% probability of thunderstorms is forecast for late tonight into Monday morning, in line with the NBM and SREF. By Monday afternoon, and into Monday evening, instability still looks to be weak but sufficient for a slight chance mention of thunderstorms at least for northern Klamath County, possibly extending both into northern Lake County and southward across the remainder of Klamath County to the vicinity of the Siskiyou/Modoc County border. Then, on Tuesday and Wednesday, there is a greater concern for increased afternoon and evening thunderstorm coverage. At least isolated activity is expected to be focused east of the Cascades and near Crater Lake, while there is less of a model consensus on whether activity will also extend farther southwest to the remainder of our Cascades and possibly the Interstate-5 corridor. Also to be mentioned is that there is the possibility that with the modified tropical moisture influx in addition to the monsoonal influx of moisture, these storms will become wetter over time. Late in the week (Thursday/Friday), eastward movement in the upper level pattern is likely, which is likely to shift the region of instability east of our area. But, a plausible, slower solution would keep instability and some slight thunderstorm risk over the east side on Thursday. The bigger impact late in the week into next weekend would be the risk of enhanced westerly winds occurring during the afternoons and evenings east of the Cascades. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Monday for PZZ350-370. Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ356- 376. && $$

026 FXUS66 KEKA 192241 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 341 PM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026 KEY MESSAGES... * Warmer temperatures are expected today bringing minor to moderate HeatRisk * Possible showers and thunderstorms across the interior tonight through Wednesday. .SYNOPSIS...Above normal interior temperatures continue today. Monsoonal and tropical moisture arrives tonight into early next week, bringing chances of showers and thunderstorms early to mid next week. && .DISCUSSION...High pressure continues to build over the area, bringing warm interior temperatures into the 90s to just over 100 to most interior valleys. Minor to locally moderate HeatRisk is expected with this heat. Hazy skies are possible from fires in southern Oregon and northern California, but impacts are expected to be minor. Monsoonal moisture has returned. While moisture aloft will be plentiful with PW of over 1 inch, instability is still meager. Some high resolution models do show a little instability (around 100-300 J/kg of CAPE) tonight into early Monday, and again Monday afternoon. Thunderstorm chances remain low at around 10-15% and one of the biggest uncertainties is the timing and location of these storms, should they form. Dry low levels will evaporate most precipitation and any thunderstorms are likely to be dry thunderstorms. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for this dry thunderstorm potential. Moisture from Tropical Storm Elida continues to stream in Monday which will continue the threat for a few showers and thunderstorms. This trend will continue through Wednesday with shower and thunderstorm chances generally increasing each afternoon with Wednesday having the highest chances. Still, chances are low at around 15% mainly in Trinity County. Uncertainty remains high as the path of the remnants of Elida will strongly influence what areas see impacts. Some ensemble members show the center of the low very close to the shore of the North Coast. Increased cloud cover and weaker high pressure will nudge interior temperatures closer to average, though most interior valleys will still see 90s. Most coastal areas will see highs in the 60s with overnight and morning stratus. /JB && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFs)...Stratus blankets the waters and immediate coastline of northwest California. Some periodic scattering is possible this afternoon and evening, but this will be short lived. LIFR ceilings may lift to IFR this afternoon, but confidence is high in LIFR ceilings returning again this evening and overnight. Southerly flow in the interior may support stratus from the Bay Area moving northward up the Russian River Valley into UKI tonight. IFR to MVFR ceilings are likely should this happen, with NBM giving around a 30% chance of low ceilings around sunrise. /JB && .MARINE...Northerly winds continue to gradually ease and move farther off the coast. Still, the outer waters could see peak gusts of 20-30 kts today, with the strongest winds in the lee of Cape Blanco. Winds continue to ease Monday with peak gusts of 15 kts or below likely for all waters. Nearshore winds will be relatively light, and could be southerly along the coast as eddies form. Winds will generally be mild for much of the week. Seas remain characterized mainly by decaying northerly wind waves and small mid to long period northwesterly and southerly swells. Steep seas will slowly ease in the outer waters today and be relatively mild by Monday. A larger southerly swell, peaking at 4-5 ft from Tropical Storm Elida arrives Monday and continues for much of the week. With relatively light winds, seas could be dominated by this swell. This could create some larger breakers than usual on the southern facing beaches, especially south of Cape Mendocino. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Red Flag Warning from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM PDT Monday for CAZ403-406-409>412. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PDT Monday for PZZ450. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Monday for PZZ470-475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

272 FXUS66 KMTR 192354 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 454 PM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 148 PM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026 - Near or slightly below normal temperatures and higher humidity through the first half of the upcoming week. - The marine layer and mid to upper level cloud cover will continue to help keep temperatures cooler under building high pressure. - Approximately 5% chance of elevated showers with isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 148 PM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026 (This evening through Monday night) Marine layer stratus has retreated back to the coastline as of early this afternoon. Increasing coverage of mid/high level clouds streaming northeast out ahead of an upper level low over the EPAC will continue this afternoon and tonight. Elevated showers can be seen on radar approaching our southern outer marine zones and will continue to remain well off shore for the remainder of today and this evening. However, after midnight, elevated shower activity is possible mainly for the Bay Area and the North Bay through mid- morning Monday. Poor lapse rates and thermal instability will limit the chances for thunderstorm activity. Along with the weak instability, very dry air between 700mb-925mb will likely result in little to no precipitation reaching the ground with only a trace to a few hundredths where any rainfall is measured. Temperatures on Monday will be similar to slightly cooler than todays values with the increased cloud coverage. Expecting a typical stratus intrusion tonight into early Monday morning as onshore flow persists, with high clouds helping to limit some of the radiational stratus cloud top cooling that will result in less mist/drizzle coverage than we saw this morning, and mostly confined to coastal areas. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 148 PM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026 (Tuesday through next Saturday) Chances for another round of elevated showers with isolated thunderstorms is trending upward. Not currently reflected in the official forecast but subsequent updates may see increases in coverage and intensity by Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday, mainly across the North Bay and maybe as far south as the Bay Area. The main source continues to be the moisture associated with what will be the remnants of Elida moving north, well offshore of our area by the end of the day Wednesday. Increasing lift, better thermal instability and slightly improved mid-level lapse rates between 7- 7.5 C/km by late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night will provide the best chances for elevated thunderstorms and potentially impactful dry lightning. A similar pocket of dry air from 700mb- 925mb will continue to limit beneficial rainfall. A final wave of elevated instability will move into the North Bay once again late Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours with potentially improved thermal instability, however less lift and weaker lapse rates, with dry air in the mid-levels continuing to limit precipitation reaching the ground. By Thursday into the weekend, the increased mid-level moisture shifts north and we begin to see drier air aloft with a gradual warming trend into the weekend. However, onshore flow will persist will persist through the extended forecast with typical no- sky-July conditions each night and morning. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 440 PM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026 VFR with IFR-LIFR stratus to return overnight. The marine layer is expected to compress tonight which will lead both to lowered ceiling heights and a smaller inland extent. Confidence in stratus reaching SJC is slightly higher than it was this morning while stratus chances for LVK remain minimal. Have kept higher chances for IFR in at OAK/SFO with confidence increasing. Patchy fog is possible along the coast tonight with LIFR CIGs and reductions in visibility possible. Diurnally breezy onshore winds continue in the afternoon/evening. Vicinity of SFO...VFR with MVFR-IFR stratus to return overnight. Moderate confidence of timing of stratus return. Satellite imagery shows a less expansive stratus layer than last night which increases confidence in a later stratus arrival (~07Z). MVFR CIGs are the most likely scenario but cannot rule out patchy IFR CIGs given the compressing of the marine layer. Conditions improve by late morning with some potential for stratus to return again late tomorrow evening. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR with stratus expected to build in over the next few hours. IFR-LIFR CIGs are expected tonight with CIGs to gradually lower early tomorrow morning. There is some potential for fog and reductions in visibility due to the compressing of the marine layer. Moderate confidence in clearing between 17-19Z with a few models indicating stratus could linger longer at MRY. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 440 PM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Gentle to moderate northwesterly breezes will persist through the upcoming workweek with slight to moderate seas. As tropical cyclone activity continues across the eastern Pacific, long period southerly swell is forecast. Southerly swell heights are anticipated to remain in the slight category but mixed seas may result in hazardous boating conditions through the week. Additionally, there are non-zero chances for high based showers which could result in pockets of gusty outflow winds and subsequent steep seas tonight through mid-week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 148 PM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Near to slightly cooler than normal temperatures will continue through the week with typical diurnal intrusion of the marine layer each night and retreat to the coast each morning as onshore flow persists. However, above 1500-2000ft we`ll see relatively weak thermal belting the first half of the week with continued warm overnights and poor RH recovery at higher elevations. Guidance is trending toward an increasing potential for elevated showers and isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening. Chances are below 5% in the official forecast but may increase in subsequent updates tonight and Monday. The primary concern is dry lightning strikes across the North Bay, with lesser chances farther south into the Bay Area. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...Kennedy MARINE...Bain Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

487 FXUS66 KOTX 192325 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 425 PM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warming trend through midweek with temperatures pushing upper 90s to near 100 by Tuesday. - Becoming more unsettled mid to late week with an increased risk for lightning. - Temperatures moderate by the weekend, though dry and breezy winds may cause elevated to critical fire weather conditions. && .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather with light to occasionally breezy winds will prevail through at least midweek. Temperatures will see a day to day warming in this timeframe with increased chances for major HeatRisk Tuesday through Thursday. Increasing moisture in the mid to late week timeframe may bring an elevated threat of thunderstorms. Drier weather returns by the weekend, though breezy winds may cause an elevated to critical fire weather threat in some areas. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Thursday: Strong high pressure ridging extending up through the Intermountain West from the south-central Plains will keep the region mainly dry and increasingly hot for much this week. 850mb temps climbing into the mid and upper 20s (C) will cause the heat to likely peak in the Wed/Thu timeframe. Widespread moderate HeatRisk with pockets of major HeatRisk is expected as early as Tuesday, though by midweek the major HeatRisk area will expand to encompass much of the Spokane/Coeur d`Alene area and west across the Columbia Basin and Waterville Plateau. There still remains some uncertainty in how high cloud cover and wildfire smoke will impact temps, though ensemble guidance continues to indicate high confidence in max temps exceeding the upper 90s or 100s over a sizable footprint of this region; NBM probabilities for MaxT>=100F max out at around 60%-90% Wednesday. As such, heat headlines will eventually be needed once we get a bit closer and the finer details come into focus. The aforementioned cloud cover will be in place as monsoonal moisture slowly advects into the region from the south this week. This moisture plume will likely make it into southern WA and central ID, but will begin to encounter northerly mid level flow coming down from British Columbia and Alberta. Early in the week, in additional to some added clouds, there could be a few sprinkles/virga across Palouse and areas further south Monday though model soundings indicate plenty of dry air beneath 12kft so not expecting any wetting rains. Later in the week, a Pacific trough will attempt to slide into the Northwest as the ridge potentially breaks down. Will need to continue monitoring trends as this added lifting mechanism may lead to increasing chances for convection Wednesday into Thursday. Friday through Sunday: Ensemble guidance spread remains unusually low in the general evolution of the longwave pattern next weekend. A trough pivoting southeastward from Alaska will phase with a shortwave off the Pacific NW coast, with the aggregate trough sliding northeastward towards the crest of the strong high pressure ridge across the desert southwest. This will result in some relief from the heat seen earlier in the week, though the ridge weakening may lead to elevated fire weather conditions with decreasing humidity and breezy winds. Long range ensembles do indicate decreasing PWAT anomalies which signals a decreased threat for thunderstorms, though can`t quite rule out some isolated convection from Thursday rolling to Friday. && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: Mainly VFR will continue to prevail at the TAF sites with light winds. Satellite imagery show significant wildfire smoke from the Kaiser Canyon fire near Nespelem, WA and Modrite Fire southwest of Hunters, WA, which will shift across the region through tonight into Monday. Model suggest some of this spreading across KGEG/KSFF/KCOE tonight into Monday, with possible MVFR visibility developing. Breezy northerly winds channeling down the Okanogan Valley (KOMK) pushing south later tonight into early Monday, possibly coming toward KMWH. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Moderate confidence in impacts to surface visibilities from wildfire smoke at the TAF sites today. Low confidence in vsby impacts at the TAF sites overnight into Monday. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 56 91 62 96 64 98 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 59 91 65 95 66 97 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 53 88 57 92 58 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 63 94 67 100 69 102 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 53 93 58 96 59 98 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 55 89 60 93 61 95 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 56 88 61 92 62 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 59 94 63 99 66 101 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Wenatchee 66 93 71 99 75 101 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 63 95 68 99 70 102 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for Central Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area-Northern Panhandle. && $$

612 FXUS66 KPDT 192342 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 442 PM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Dry and warm conditions will continue through Tuesday 2. Widespread Moderate HeatRisk through early next week 3. Pattern shift Wednesday will bring monsoonal moisture back to the region with isolated to scattered chances of thunderstorms && .DISCUSSION... Current satellite shows some upper level clouds moving in over the region. It also shows plenty of smoke moving across the south eastern portion of the region from the fires in the southwestern portion of the CWA. Temperatures right now are in the 80s across much of the region and are expected to reach into the low 90s with 70s along the ridgetops. As the ridge continues to settle in overhead, warm, dry air will continue to settle over the region. Temperatures will continue to rise with NBM showing 80-90% chances the Columbia Basin, foothills of the Blues and the Gorge will see temperatures in the 100s beginning Tuesday and persisting through Thursday. Overnight lows are expected to be in the upper 60s to low 70s with 60-80% of the NBM raw ensembles in agreement. Probabilistic HeatRisk shows a 60-70% chance of moderate HeatRisk beginning Tuesday for the aforementioned areas becoming more widespread across the CWA by Wednesday with increased probabilities to near 70-80%. With the elevated HeatRisk, heat related impacts may occur. By Wednesday, models are in better agreement and show a slight pattern shift with the upper level ridge shifting towards the Four Corners and advecting some monsoonal moisture up into the region. Clusters show the main difference to be mainly with the amplitude of the ridge. NBM raw ensembles show Wednesday to have 10-30% chance of thunderstorms through Deschutes and Grant counties after 2 PM. Looking at soundings show CAPE values over 400 J/kg, lapse rates 8.0- 9 C/km, effective bulk shear of 25-30 kts and LIs of -4 and PWATs of 0.05-1.0 inches. NBM QPF shows these storms to be more on the drier side with less than 10% chance of a wetting rain. Will continue to monitor as the event draws closer. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... VFR conditions prevail through Monday with winds generally 10 kts or less. THere are some sites tonight, with wind gusts to around 15 kts. These should drop off over the next few hours and become 10 kts or less as well. && .FIRE WEATHER... Fire weather concerns will remain elevated through the week with continued hot and dry conditions. A slight shift in the pattern Wednesday will bring increased chances (10-30%) of isolated to scattered thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon to central OR and the Eastern Mountains with unstable conditions elsewhere. Fires along the outer boundaries of the thunderstorm threat will still see convective build up that could lead to outflow boundaries of 20-30 mph while fire underneath the cells could see outflows of 30-40 mph. Zones most likely affected by thunderstorms are zones OR705,700,696,697,698 and 699. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 61 90 63 97 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 64 93 67 100 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 62 93 65 100 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 62 93 67 100 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 63 92 66 100 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 59 91 65 98 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 59 89 61 94 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 60 91 62 98 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 61 92 60 96 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 65 95 70 102 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday through Thursday evening for WAZ024-027>029. OR...Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday through Thursday evening for ORZ041-044-507. Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for ORZ050-502-503-505- 506-508. && $$ DISCUSSION...90 AVIATION...77 FIRE WEATHER...90

654 FXUS65 KREV 191913 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1213 PM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances each day this week, becoming wider in areal coverage through midweek. * Abundant moisture and slower storm motions will introduce flash flooding from heavy rain as the main concern. * Uncertainty later this week into next weekend on whether the monsoonal pattern will persist or if drier conditions emerge. && .DISCUSSION... Light showers earlier this morning have progressed out of the area, leaving clearing skies behind, providing ample daytime heating to get storms firing today. Southerly flow will allow for a south to north propagation of storms with showers and thunderstorms initially developing along the Sierra of Mono county today (30-50% chance). Storms are expected to track northward into the Sierra Front (chances diminish to ~25%). The 12Z sounding out of NWS Reno this morning recorded a PWAT of 0.9", which is well above the 90th percentile for today`s sounding climatology. The mean wind in the bulk of the profile topped out at about 30 kts, which hints at faster storm motions. So, to get any flooding right now, we would need training storms. However, the decent wind speeds at the LCL/LFC layer indicate that storms today may become tilted (reduces the potential for hail development), resulting in a similar setup to last Monday/Tuesday, which produced localized flooding concerns. Showers are expected to continue into NE CA and northern Washoe county after sunset. Thunder chances for this area decrease to about 15% for the overnight period. CAM guidance places some light showers around the Tahoe Basin tonight, too, though confidence on that materializing remains low. Monday, CAM guidance starts convection once again in Mono county but with a more southwesterly flow, storms are to push into Mineral/S Lyon counties before continuing into the Basin and Range south of I-80. Model PWATs range from 0.8-1.1" and with slower storm motions forecast, flash flooding quickly becomes the concern. As such, a Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the aforementioned counties Monday afternoon through Monday evening. Also, some of the CAM/higher resolution guidance introduces a lower-end chance for narrow shower bands with embedded lighting in parts of northeast CA Monday afternoon-evening. Tuesday, we see larger areas of diffluence aloft associated with typical convection initiation time. CAPE values are pushing 1000 J/kg with PWATs topping out at 1-1.2". Widespread convection will be the name of the game with storms once again developing in Mono county before pushing northward. Storm motions remain slow and with the abundance in monsoonal moisture, flooding is once again a concern. Make sure you have multiple ways to receive weather warnings and never drive through flooded roadways! Model guidance is a bit mixed for later this week and next weekend with the Four Corners high propagating closer to Texas, which would reduce storm chances past Wednesday. However, some models have the high retrograding back towards the Four Corners by the end of the week, which in turn increases storm chances. As of now, the forecast remains on track with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms mainly in west central NV along and east of US-95 and southward to Mono County, though uncertainty in the intensity and areal coverage of storms remains. -Giralte && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail for most of the period today. The exception will be this afternoon from roughly 22-03Z when showers and thunderstorms are expected to impact first KMMH and then KRNO/KCXP/KMEV. Brief periods of MVFR conditions likely due to lower CIGS/VIS from heavy rain. Vicinity showers likely for KTRK/KTVL for a similar time frame, which will allow for mountain obscurations at all terminals. Light showers may develop over KTRK/KTVL late tonight, though confidence remains low. If these showers do develop, the main terminal impact would be light rain and lower CIGS. Another round of showers/t-storms is expected Monday afternoon- early evening, with best chances (up to 50%) at KMMH and lesser chances (10-20%) for the western NV sites (KRNO/KCXP/KMEV). -Giralte && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening NVZ001. CA...Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening CAZ073. && $$

199 FXUS66 KSTO 191930 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1230 PM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated fire weather concerns in the northern Sacramento Valley and higher terrain due to isolated thunderstorm chances today and tonight. - Monsoonal moisture will continue to bring chances for wet/dry thunderstorms in the mountains through mid week. && .DISCUSSION... Current satellite has generally clear skies across California, with a few scattered to broken clouds over portions of northern California. A continued surge of monsoonal moisture today will bring chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon, evening, and overnight for the Sierra. Best chances will be along and south of I-80 along the crest. There does exist a slight chance (10-15 percent) for an isolated shower or isolated thunderstorm over parts of the Coastal range, northern Sacramento Valley, southern Cascades, and through Shasta county this evening and overnight. Confidence remains low on development as instability and lift is lacking over this area of California. The better instability and forcing needed for sustained thunderstorms is over the Sierra and in Nevada. Dry thunderstorms are possible in this region overnight as soundings show dry lower levels. Dry thunderstorms will also be possible in the Sierra this afternoon through the overnight hours. With the isolated wet/dry thunderstorm chances there is an elevated fire weather concern for the Sierra, southern Cascades, northern Sacramento Valley, into the Coastal Range and Shasta county this evening through the overnight. There will be a continued surge of monsoonal moisture through mid week, with the best chances for thunderstorms over the mountains Tuesday through Wednesday. We will continue to monitor thunderstorm chances and any further potential for dry thunderstorms through the mid week timeframe. Otherwise, temperatures will remain seasonal across the area through the end of the week. Winds will be breezy at times near the Delta and southern Sacramento Valley during the evening hours. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions through the TAF period, with slight chances for a shower or isolated storm near RDD and RBL this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, expect SCT to BKN clouds 21z through 12z for areas along and north of Highway 50. MOD and SCK will see FEW to SCT clouds this evening and overnight, with BKN at times. Thunderstorm chances at the higher terrain overnight and into the morning hours. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

391 FXUS65 KMSO 191907 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 107 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Elevated fire weather conditions today due to hot, dry, and breezy conditions, especially in northwest Montana. - Periods of smoke persists across the region today. Low storm chances except over Lemhi County. - Surge of monsoon moisture, aided by remnants of Hurricane Elida, will bring increasing chances for wet thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday. Localized flash flooding is possible. - Hot temperatures are expected this week, with highs reaching 90s up to 106 degrees in the lower elevations of Idaho. Mostly dry conditions with periods of smoke and haze will persist today, originating from wildfires in Oregon and Washington. There is a low chance for isolated storms today into Monday, mainly confined to Lemhi County. Monday night into Tuesday morning ridge-level and gap easterly breezes will develop. These easterly winds could help thin out some of the current smoke, or draw in new smoke from Canada. A notable pattern shift begins later Monday with a push of monsoon moisture, probably mostly in the form of cloud cover and scattered rain showers. Any rain showers could occur more over northwest Montana into Tuesday morning. Residual dry air in place may prevent too much accumulation. From Tuesday through Thursday, more sunshine could allow for destabilization of the atmosphere for showers and thunderstorms. With precipitable water values approaching one inch, which equates to around 200% of normal for this time of year, any storms could produce heavy rainfall. The ridge axis will be generally right on top of us which could work against experiencing widespread shower activity. With the rise of temperatures getting back into the 90s to near 100 or above, those working or recreating outdoors should stay hydrated, limit strenuous outdoor activities during peak afternoon heating, and spend time in air conditioned or shaded environments. By Friday into next weekend, the ridge axis is forecast to shift eastwards, allowing for increasing westerly winds, drier atmospheric moisture and a down tick in shower activity. && .AVIATION...A drier air mass has moved into the region eliminating the threat of thunderstorms for the next couple of days. However, it has brought smoke from wildfires in Oregon and Washington to the region. Main impacts from the smoke will be haze as it is not yet expected to reach concentrations high enough to significantly impact visibility. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

456 FXUS65 KBOI 192359 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 559 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and thunderstorms along the Idaho/Nevada border today. - Areas of smoke in southeast Oregon, drifting into southwest Idaho through the week. - Hot temperatures this week, hottest on Monday with Heat Advisories in the Snake Plain and high desert. - Showers/thunderstorms increase through midweek with heavy rainfall possible especially on Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Tuesday Night/... Issued 159 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2026 Hot and dry conditions as an upper level ridge remains in place. Southwesterly flow today is transporting a band of altocumulus with virga showers in it, but the overall chance of storms is low. Only a small portion of south-central Idaho in our area, south of the Magic Valley, will have isolated thunderstorms. These could produce gusty winds, lightning, and heavy rain, but will stay relegated to that small corner of our area. High temperatures remain hot with temperatures in the Snake Plain around 100 degrees. Some seasonally breezy winds across the area with gusts 15-25 mph. On Monday, southerly flow aloft brings the return monsoonal moisture that evening, but not before the hottest day in our forecast. Heat Advisories have been issued with temperatures in the Snake Plain expected to be as high as 105 degrees with morning temperatures in the low 70s. Shower and thunderstorm chances will rise to 20-40% near the Idaho/Nevada border in the afternoon/evening. Northwest winds will become breezy late in the day with wind gusts 15-30 mph. On Tuesday, increasing moisture will cool temperatures a couple degrees, but it will still be hot. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase across the higher terrain but remain limited over the lower elevations. Storms will be capable of gusty winds and brief heavy rain. Smoke will persist across the area Monday and Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /Wednesday through Sunday/... Issued 159 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2026 Southerly flow aloft will remain over the area Wednesday, with the region between the upper-level ridge in the south-central U.S. and upper-level troughing off the Pacific NW coast. The greatest chances for showers and thunderstorms in the extended period will be on Wednesday, as an embedded shortwave trough lifts north through the Great Basin. This feature should provide additional lift for convection, with most areas seeing a 20-60% chance of showers/thunderstorms. Precipitable water values will still be hovering around the 95th percentile during this time, creating the risk of heavy rain and flash flooding, especially over burn scars and steep terrain. Starting Thursday, the flow aloft will turn southwesterly as an upper trough deepens off the Pacific Northwest coast. This will gradually push deeper moisture to the east with a drying trend from the west through the end of the week. By the weekend, only minimal chances for precipitation will persist across our eastern zones. Southwest flow will bring hot, dry, and breezy conditions late week into the weekend. Smoke will likely continue to impact much of the area through the end of the week, especially across southeast Oregon. && .AVIATION /00Z Monday through Tuesday/... Issued 559 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2026 Mainly VFR. Wildfire smoke across the area will locally reduce visibility to MVFR/IFR, especially near KBNO. Some improvement this evening and Mon/PM. Isolated showers/virga lifting north through SE Oregon overnight. Afternoon high density altitude through the week. Surface winds: Generally variable up to 8 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-SW 5-15 kt. KBOI...VFR. Visibility reduced due to wildfire smoke, although VFR expected to prevail. Afternoon high density altitude this week due to heat. Surface winds: NW 7-12 kt this evening becoming light and variable overnight. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Monday for IDZ012-014>016- 030-033. OR...Heat Advisory from noon MDT /11 AM PDT/ to 9 PM MDT /8 PM PDT/ Monday for ORZ063-064. Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for ORZ061-062. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....NF SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....CH

065 FXUS65 KLKN 191722 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1022 AM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * There is a moderate risk of heat-related illnesses in Northern Nevada both this afternoon and Monday afternoon * There is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall in Southeastern Nevada this afternoon and this evening * There is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall in most of Northern and Central Nevada each afternoon and evening Monday through Wednesday * A few strong thunderstorms possible in most of Northern and Central Nevada each afternoon and evening today through at least Wednesday && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Saturday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper-level area of high pressure will be centered over Northwestern Colorado today. Monsoonal moisture will remain in place over Southeastern Nevada today, resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms. Farther north, in Northeastern Nevada, atmospheric moisture will not be that robust, resulting in less thunderstorm coverage this afternoon and this evening. Regardless of coverage, a few strong thunderstorms are possible in Eastern Nevada today. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be localized flooding, small hail, wind gusts near 45 mph, and dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes. High temperatures throughout Northern Nevada both this afternoon and Monday afternoon will be around five degrees above normal for this time of year. This will result in a moderate risk of heat-related illnesses. Here are probabilities of triple digit heat for select locations in Northern Nevada on Sunday, July 19th, 2026: Battle Mountain - 97% Winnemucca - 96% Crescent Valley - 96% Carlin - 95% Elko - 85% West Wendover - 70% The aforementioned anticyclone aloft will move into the South Central United States Monday through Wednesday. This will push monsoonal moisture northward into most of Northern and Central Nevada, resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening Monday through Wednesday. Here are thunderstorm probabilities for select locations in Eastern Nevada on Tuesday, July 21st, 2026: Ely - 50% Lund - 50% Great Basin National Park - 50% Eureka - 48% Currie - 45% Ruby Lake - 43% Austin - 41% Elko - 36% Wells - 36% West Wendover - 31% Monsoonal moisture should shift eastward Thursday and Friday, but lingering thunderstorm chances (slight) will remain in the service area forecast. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence regarding a moderate risk of heat-related illnesses in Northern Nevada both this afternoon and Monday afternoon. High forecast confidence in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall in Southeastern Nevada this afternoon and this evening. Moderate forecast confidence regarding a marginal risk of excessive rainfall in most of Northern and Central Nevada each afternoon and evening Monday through Wednesday. High forecast confidence regarding a few strong thunderstorms in most of Northern and Central Nevada each afternoon and evening today through at least Wednesday. No deviations from the NBM model output. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions and light winds are expected to prevail at all sites through the next 24 hours, with the exception of a period of gusty winds up to 20KT at KTPH this afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected in the area of KEKO/KENV/KELY again today, and direct terminal impact cant be ruled out. Thunderstorms could cause erratic winds up to 40KT and decreased visibility from heavy rainfall. && .FIRE WEATHER... A few strong thunderstorms are possible each afternoon and evening for the next several days. The primary hazards will be small hail, wind gusts near 45 mph, and cloud to ground lightning strikes. Enhanced runoff and localized flooding is possible in storms that form over areas with antecedent rainfall from earlier this week (especially portions of 470 and 425). && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Monday NVZ030-031-033-036-038. && $$ DISCUSSION...87 AVIATION...94 FIRE WEATHER...87