347 FXUS66 KSEW 202338 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 338 PM PST Fri Feb 20 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Transient ridging will exit the area on Saturday as an upper-low sets up shop offshore. This feature will bring several rounds of lowland rain, mountain snow and gusty winds into next week. Temperatures are slated to warm to near seasonal values this weekend onward. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Ridge axis will shift eastwards tonight as an upper-low sinks south out of the Gulf of Alaska. A few showers may linger across the CWA this evening but mostly dry conditions are favored. Cloud coverage will keep to keep overnight lows relatively warmer than previous night`s. However, temperatures are to remain chilly with lows in the lower to mid 30s. A 995mb surface low will sweep a front across W WA on Saturday, starting on the coast before sunrise and across the interior by mid-morning. Widespread rain, mountain snow and gusty winds are favored. Wind gusts upwards of 40 mph are possible along the coast and Cascade gaps on Saturday as offshore gradients tighten in response to the developing offshore low. Active conditions are favored into Sunday as well as the upper-low swings an additional frontal system across the area. This feature will bring similar conditions as its predecessor though, easterly gap winds are trending lighter. Nonetheless breezy to even gusty conditions are in line along with another round of widespread lowland rainfall and mountain snow. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Ensembles keep the low offshore Monday into Tuesday, with multiple rounds of precipitation continuing during this time. Highs will remain in the lower 50s through the long- term, right around seasonal average for late February. The moisture content of the precipitation will increase on Monday into Wednesday. Hydrologic flooding impacts are becoming a possibility, mainly for the Skokomish River but rises on area rivers may be met. Confidence is increasing on higher snowfall rates towards midweek, but details will continue to be ironed out as the days progress. 41 && .AVIATION... Generally low-end VFR to MVFR with mid level clouds filling in across western Washington this afternoon. Light shower activity will continue along the Pacific Coast this afternoon. A frontal system will spread a band of precipitation northward across the region Saturday morning, resulting in more widespread MVFR conditions and localized IFR in heavier rain bands. More stratiform precipitation will fill in across the region for the remainder of the day, maintaining deteriorated conditions. South to east surface winds will ramp up tonight with gusts reaching 20-25 kt by Saturday morning for the coastal terminals. KSEA...MVFR conditions will likely persist through the evening with a BKN cloud deck at around 2500 feet. Conditions may scatter out briefly to VFR this evening, with showers moving inland over the terminal Saturday morning. E/SE winds will increase as the weather system moves through, with potential for gusts of 20-25 kt Saturday morning. Models also show some potential for LLWS near the terminal mid to late Sat morning, but confidence was not high enough to add to the TAF. Precipitation will fill in by the afternoon with more stratiform rain and MVFR conditions expected through the remainder of the day Saturday with easing winds into the afternoon. 15 && .MARINE... Light offshore flow will continue today with a broad surface trough over the coastal waters. Seas will generally hover between 4- 7 ft. A strong system will move into the area waters later tonight into Saturday, increasing offshore flow and bringing a series of gales and small crafts to the coastal waters and portions of the inland waters throughout the weekend. Seas will build as a result, with potential for waves to build as high as 25 feet across the outer most outer waters with a southerly component. An active pattern will continue through the middle of next week as additional disturbances move across the area waters. Though not as strong as the system over the weekend, these system will likely bringing additional headlines to the area waters. 14/15 && .HYDROLOGY... No river flooding is expected over the next seven days but later next week chances increase significantly for flooding on the Skokomish River. Starting this weekend through next week there will be multiple rounds of widespread precipitation along with warming temperatures to raise the snow level. With the thin mountain snowpack and existence of low elevation snow, rain on snow could produce enough snow melt getting added to the otherwise unimpressive forecast precipitation amounts to result in flooding. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Gale Warning from 4 AM Saturday to 4 PM PST Sunday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM PST Sunday for Admiralty Inlet-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands. Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 4 PM PST Sunday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. && $$

667 FXUS66 KPQR 202259 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 259 PM PST Fri Feb 20 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Rain returns this weekend with a weak atmospheric river on Saturday and again on Monday into Tuesday. Breezy easterly winds near the mouth of the Gorge are possible on Saturday into Sunday morning but confidence is low. Storm and Gale Force Winds over the waters on Saturday. Showers persist on Wednesday through the remainder of the week. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Sunday...The transitional day between systems is nearly over, and the next set of active weather is on deck. Satellite imagery shows two mesoscale low pressure systems off of the Oregon and Washington coasts. These lows are pushing isolated showers inland, and enhancing dense cloud cover over the area. In addition, southerly winds are working their way up the coast both at the surface and aloft which is ushering in warmer air. At 5000 ft, temperatures are right around -2 to 0 degree C. At the surface however, temperatures are much warmer with today`s highs in the mid-40s. Overnight we will see temperatures drop but the persistent cloud cover will help keep conditions more mild for this time of year. The overall weather pattern for Saturday and Sunday is quite chaotic with many moving parts. Synoptically, it is composed of a long wave trough with a deepening low at the based, several shortwave troughs embedded within the larger trough, and even smaller mesoscale lows strewn throughout. Because of the complicated and condensed nature of each of these features, I am going to mainly focus on the sensible weather of what you can expect. More widespread rain will begin early Saturday morning as a warm front (associated with that long wave trough) pushes inland. Rain appears to be concentrated to the coast and Coast Range. This rain will be the initial stages of an incoming weak atmospheric river. The next feature is more of the main weather maker which is a deepening area of low pressure moving northward from the marine waters off of northern California. This low is forecast to deepen to around 980 mb creating a strong east-west pressure gradient. There are two potentially impactful weather components with this low. The first - Rain. High resolution models are suggesting the heaviest rain will occur from around noon Saturday through the evening but where exactly it will end up is unsure. The second - Wind. While widespread wind is not a concern at this point, a strengthening pressure gradient within the Columbia River Gorge is one signal for potentially impactful winds. While the pressure gradient is around -8 mb with some models, others suggest a gradient closer to -3 mb. In addition, there is a lack of temperature gradient between the west and east side of the Cascades. To get widespread impactful easterly winds within the greater Portland/Vancouver metro area, we really look for both of these components. Diving into the models, there is less consistency as one would desire in order to issue any kind of wind advisory headline. While some high resolution models suggest gusts up to 45 mph, others peak around 30 mph. Because of the inconsistencies, have decided against any wind advisories at this time for the eastern metro area. But, that does not mean there may not be impacts seen by folks in Camas, Washougal, Troutdale and Gresham. -27 .LONG TERM...Sunday Night through Friday...As we move into early next week, things become a bit more complicated. Models suggest another round of rain on Monday into Tuesday - this time associated with a slightly stronger atmospheric river. Still on the weaker side, there will be the potential for more widespread precipitation. The challenge is that the precipitation will fall within a narrow band (as is common with atmospheric rivers) and where that band falls is still to-be-determined. Models continue to fluctuate between impactful rainfall, to our typical rainfall totals based on the location of the atmospheric river. Currently it is trending further south, but it easily could shift northward over the next few days. Model ensembles help paint this picture well. The 24-hour rainfall totals in Newport for example range from 1.5 inches to 2.5 inches on Monday into Tuesday, and for Portland Airport span from 0.75-1.5 inch in 24-hours. Given the long duration of the rain in the atmospheric river, the previous days of rain, and the snowfall from the last several days, we cannot rule out isolated flooding. Confidence is incredibly low as there is less than a 10% chance of our most prone rivers reaching action or minor flood stage on Tuesday. However, if this band shifts northward then those probabilities may rise as we will see more of the accumulation. We will continue to monitor, but if you see a widely fluctuating rainfall forecast, the location of the atmospheric river is to blame. Showers persist through Wednesday then the flow becomes zonal as a weak area of high pressure forms late in the afternoon. Some rain potential remains through Friday but overall it resembles that of our typical rain forecast. -27 && .AVIATION...Generally VFR conditions across the airspace with pockets of MVFR conditions within the Willamette Valley. Flight conditions are expected to continue to improve over the next few hours towards VFR. Winds generally southerly across the airspace, but will become more easterly through 00Z Sat as an offshore pressure gradient sets up. This offshore gradient combined with increasing high clouds will help to maintain VFR conditions across the airspace through at least 10Z-14Z Saturday. A weak frontal band starting around 08Z Sat looks to bring a mixture of VFR/MVFR conditions as it moves northward across the airspace. This frontal band will impact areas around KPDX 12Z Saturday. Rain is expected with this front. South/southeasterly winds will also return to the coast with gusts around 25 kt for areas around KONP. The front will also aid in increasing the easterly winds around the western end and the mouth of the Columbia River Gorge with gusts around 25 kt. These gusts are expected to impact KTTD starting around 13Z Sat with a 35% chance of gusts up to 35 kt. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Lingering MVFR conditions should improve to VFR through 22Z Fri. Afterwards, VFR conditions expected to persist with light, southerly winds through at least 10Z Saturday. A weak frontal band towards the end of the TAF period brings a mixture of VFR/MVFR conditions starting around 12Z Sat in addition to light rain. Around 13Z-15Z Sat, easterly winds from the mouth of the Columbia River Gorge are expected to increase, but these increasing winds will likely (75-85% chance) not impact KPDX. -42 && .MARINE...Largely benign conditions tonight across all waters. However, a robust system, moving into the region from the south will bring elevated winds and seas across all waters through the weekend. Expect Gale Force gusts across the outer waters, starting late tonight with gusts up to 40 kt. Inner waters will also see an increase in winds, but should remain below Gale Force, but cannot rule out some isolated gusts up to 35 kt. As the main body of the system continues to track northward, Storm Force gusts up to 50 kt are expected for zones PZZ272 and PZZ273 starting Saturday morning through very early Sunday morning. Zone PZZ271 could see isolated gusts up to 50 kt from Saturday morning through very early Sunday morning. Seas will also build across all waters, peaking Saturday night/Sunday morning in the upper teens for the inner waters and 20-23 ft for the outer waters. Therefore, have upgraded the Gale Watch to a Gale Warning and Storm Warning, with the Hazardous Seas Watch for the inner waters and the Columbia River Bar being upgraded to a Hazardous Seas Warning. On Sunday, winds and seas will start to slowly subside with wind gusts below 20 kt and sub 12 ft seas expected by Monday. Conditions expected to continue to subside further as the middle of the week approaches. -42 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Hazardous Seas Warning from 1 AM Saturday to 7 AM PST Sunday for PZZ210-251>253. Gale Warning from 1 AM Saturday to 7 AM PST Sunday for PZZ271. Gale Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM PST Saturday for PZZ272-273. Storm Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 1 AM PST Sunday for PZZ272-273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

572 FXUS66 KMFR 202335 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 335 PM PST Fri Feb 20 2026 .UPDATE...Aviation Discussion updated. && .AVIATION...21/00Z TAFS...An offshore front will bring increasing mid and high level cloud cover area wide through this evening. Late this evening into early Saturday morning, expect ceilings lowering to MVFR along the coast and MVFR may develop for some areas just inland, mainly into the Umpqua Basin. We don`t think fog will reform tonight in the valleys west of the Cascades since there should be a ceiling in the 4000-6000 ft range initially. With some light precip possible after 04Z from the Cascades west, there could be terrain obscurations as well. Increasing winds aloft and a low-level inversion present around 1500-2000 ft AGL will cause a risk for low- level wind shear (LLWS) from the coast to the Cascades late tonight into Saturday. Stronger south-southeast winds will develop along the coast, from around Cape Blanco southward through Saturday where a period of very strong winds are possible Saturday night into Sunday. Breezy to windy conditions will also develop over higher terrain, the Shasta Valley, southern Rogue Valley and over to the East Side during the weekend. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 253 PM PST Fri Feb 20 2026/ DISCUSSION...Strong low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska will drop southward over the eastern Pacific tonight and linger there through this weekend. This will spawn several areas of low pressure which will bring multiple frontal systems to the coast this weekend into early next week. Initially, tonight, as the first offshore front approaches, snow levels will be fairly low and will start out around 2000-2500 feet. Precip chances increase through this evening along the coast and eventually inland to around the Cascades overnight into Saturday morning. Precipitation from this first system is likely to be quite light, but with lower snow levels, we wouldn`t be surprised to see a little snow around the Mt Shasta region on I-5 or even the passes to the north overnight into Saturday morning. We could even see some wet snow mix in at times tonight at the lower passes west of the Cascades (Sexton/Canyon Mt./Hayes Hill/Camas). Despite the potential for some wet snow, we don`t expect accumulations to be high enough anywhere to warrant winter weather advisories. Meanwhile, the flow will back to the south and southeast tonight into Saturday and this will increase the pressure gradients resulting in an increase in winds. We are already seeing some SSE wind surfacing in the Shasta Valley and along the coast. Winds will increase further in these areas and we have issued a High Wind Warning along the coast. Since the flow is more SSE, we expect most of the wind impacts from the next couple of fronts to be south of Bandon, and especially from Cape Blanco southward at the coastal headlands. Wind gusts of 50-65 mph will be common, possibly peaking at 75 mph during the period of strongest winds at the headlands during Saturday night. Since the strongest low pressure area is forecast to remain a bit farther offshore, winds aloft inland (while still strong) are comparatively weaker. We think we`ll see advisory wind gusts (40-55 mph) in the Shasta Valley and even into portions of the Rogue Valley late tonight through Sunday morning (Rogue Valley), or Sunday afternoon (Shasta Valley). We don`t think stronger winds will begin over the East Side until late Saturday pm/evening at the earliest, so we held off on wind headlines over there for now. It should be noted that wind speeds will increase over the higher terrain during this period (Sat-Sun) as well with gusts in the 40-60 mph range above 4000 feet, but above 3000 feet in more exposed locations. Snow levels will continue to rise Saturday night through Sunday to above 4000 feet. Again, this should keep the core of the winter impacts with a second stronger front arriving at the coast to the higher terrain and directed into NorCal. We upgraded the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Storm Warning for above 4500 feet in Zones 80, 82 and 83 (since that`s where the majority of the heavy snow is expected) for Saturday night through Sunday. Some wet snow could fall/briefly accumulate at elevations below 4500 feet by early Sunday morning, but shouldn`t amount to more than an inch or two. We lopped off the end of the watch (which originally went through Sunday night) because it appears the flow will reorient Sunday night, and by then, snow levels will have risen above 6000 feet and either precipitation will end for a while or snow will be confined to the highest elevations. In terms of rainfall, the steadiest, heaviest rain is likely at the coast late Saturday night into Sunday. There could be a break Sunday night into Monday morning, then another surge of heavier precip late Monday into Tuesday. But, guidance has been waffling back and forth with just how far inland the heavier band gets. Recent 12z models have decreased QPF quite a bit for areas inland compared to just 24 hours ago, but amounts remain substantial along the coast. Generally, amounts for the entire duration (through Tuesday) range from 3-6 inches along the coast (up to 8 inches Curry coast ranges) with 1-3 inches inland and into western Siskiyou County and Mt. Shasta region, with now lesser amounts in the downslope valleys like the Rogue and Shasta Valley with 0.50-1.00 inch. East Side areas may have to wait until Monday night/Tuesday`s front to see much. We are forecasting 0.10 (deserts east of the Warners) to 0.25-0.50 of an inch in most other areas. Winter Rim and other mountains may see slightly higher amounts. For information on flood potential, please see the Hydrology discussion below. The entire system finally pushes east of the Cascades Tuesday night and the latest guidance is bringing higher confidence in a drier, milder pattern evolving for the middle to latter part of next week. MARINE...Updated 200 PM PST Friday, February 20, 2026...The brief periods of lighter winds and lower seas (6-7 ft) will end this evening as a strong storm system moves southward over the eastern Pacific from the Gulf of Alaska and lingers over the eastern Pacific through the weekend. This system will spin up multiple surface low pressures along 130W, the strongest of which is expected Saturday afternoon/evening. Conditions will deteriorate this evening and overnight as the first surface low impacts area waters. Advisory level winds are likely to return through this evening, ramping up to gales overnight. As the strongest low pressure deepens offshore on Saturday, gales are likely to increase to storm force Saturday afternoon/evening, especially for the outer waters. Storm and gale warnings are up. These strong winds will result in very steep and dangerous seas late tonight through Saturday. Winds ease just below gales late Sunday, but seas are likely to remain very steep and hazardous well into early next week. Calmer conditions are likely from Tuesday through the end of the week. HYDROLOGY...A weak to moderate atmospheric river will likely bring periods of moderate to heavy rainfall later this weekend into early next week. The first frontal system is forecast to arrive late Saturday night into Sunday with several rounds of precipitation continuing through Tuesday morning. Early indications point towards widespread 72hr totals around 4 to 6 inches along the coast with locally 8 inches in the favored coast ranges of Curry County. Amounts of 3 to 5 inches are possible in the Mount Shasta region and also other favored areas of western Siskiyou County. For further perspective, the probability for at least 1.50" of rainfall over a 24 hour period is roughly 50%-80% for any 24hr time period starting Sunday and continuing through Tuesday. In fact, there are a couple time periods on Sunday and again on Tuesday where the probability for 1.0"/6hrs is 20%-40%. In other words, there is high confidence for moderate to heavy rainfall. Small streams and creeks are likely to see rapid rises during this event with nuisance flooding and ponding of water on roadways likely during periods of heavy rain. Significant rises on main stem rivers and flashier creeks are also expected. Given that rivers are still running fairly low for this time of year, river flooding potential is a bit lower than usual, but there is at least a low probability of some flooding, especially in the Coquille Basin. We have issued a Hydrologic Outlook (ESFMFR) to highlight this potential. We will continue to monitor the forecasts and update accordingly. Flood Watches may be issued by the National Weather Service if this situation worsens or becomes more likely for flooding. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Wind Advisory from 1 AM Saturday to 7 PM PST Sunday for ORZ026. High Wind Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Sunday for ORZ021-022. CA...Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM Saturday to 4 PM PST Sunday for CAZ080-082-083. Wind Advisory from 1 AM Saturday to 7 PM PST Sunday for CAZ081. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Storm Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 4 AM PST Sunday for PZZ370- 376. && $$

595 FXUS66 KEKA 202356 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 356 PM PST Fri Feb 20 2026 .SYNOPSIS...The first of a series of frontal systems will bring strong to damaging south winds, a period of moderate to heavy rain and mountain snow this weekend. Another frontal system along with deepen IVT plume is expected to bring a prolonged period of moderate to heavy rain, and mountain snow above 6000 feet early into mid next week. && .KEY MESSAGES... * Strong to Damaging southerly winds will bring an increased risk of downed trees and power outages tonight through Sunday morning. Strongest winds expected Saturday evening into Sunday. * Periods of moderate to heavy rain Sunday through Tuesday. * Increased risk for Minor Flooding of smaller river, creeks and streams, urban areas with poor drainage early next week. && .DISCUSSION...Wet and unsettled weather returns this weekend and will continue through early next week as a series of frontal systems along with IVT plume impact the forecast area with strong to damaging winds, heavy snow and heavy mountain snow. High pressure continues to shift eastward this afternoon, while a broad closed upper- level trough continue to drop from the Gulf of Alaska and settle over the Northeast Pacific (NEPAC). An approaching warm front is spreading high level- clouds across the region this afternoon. This warm front will be driven by a compact surface low swinging northeastward toward the Pacific NW tonight. This will bring increasing southerly winds for the coastal headland and exposed ridges tonight as a coastal jet develops along the coast. Gust from 40 to 60 mph are forecast to developed late tonight over the coastal headlands and exposed ridges in Del Norte and Humboldt counties. Mainly light showers are expected from late this evening and persisting into Sunday. Winds are expected to steadily increase Saturday into Sunday, with strong to damaging south-southeast winds over the coastal headlands and exposed ridges. A broad surface low will develop well off the California Coast Saturday morning, and track north- northeast through Sunday. This will favor a strong pressure gradient and a long- duration low level jet at 925 mb from 65 to 75 kts along the NW California Coast Saturday into Sunday. It will be more unstable and strong winds aloft most likely mix down to the surface Saturday into Sunday, especially near or along the surface front. The strong winds are expected to develop from north to south,beginning tonight for Del Norte and Humboldt counties and spreading southward into Mendocino Coast Saturday afternoon, and persist through Sunday morning. Gust up to 50 mph is expected for the Humboldt Coast, Mendocino Coast and northern Mendocino Interior. Up to 70 mph are forecast for the coastal headland and exposed ridges in Del Norte and Humboldt County, with locally up to 80 mph possible over the more prominent exposed ridges. Even Del Norte Coast is expected to be impacted by damaging winds up to 60 mph Saturday evening into Sunday. Have to upgrade the Wind Advisory to High Wind Warning for Del Norte County, Humboldt Interior and Southwest Humboldt. A Wind Advisory is now in effect for Northern Humboldt Coast, Mendocino Coast and Northern Mendocino Interior. CAMs are suggesting a narrow line of organized convection activity with moderate to heavy rain moving from northwest to southwest early Sunday. A few thunderstorms are possible with this line with a shallow instability Sunday morning, especially over the coastal waters and nearshore coast. Total rainfall amounts forecast up to 2.5 inches for Del Norte County from 4 AM Sunday through 4 AM Monday, and 0.75 to 1.50 inches for Humboldt County. Locally up to 3 inches is anticipated over the southwest windward facing terrain. The next frontal system along with a moderate to strong Atmospheric River (IVT`s greater than 500 kg/m/s) is expected to impact the area Monday through Tuesday next week. This have the potential to bring widespread moderate to heavy rainfall early next week. There still uncertainties on exact timing of the breaks in rain will be a big factor in the level of impacts. 48 HR NBM probability indicates there is a 50-75% chance of precipitation exceeding 2 inches across Del Norte, Humboldt, southern Trinity and northern Mendocino counties from 4 AM Monday through 4 AM Wednesday, and a 15-30% chance for around Humboldt Bay and lowest elevations in southern Mendocino and Lake counties. Stay tuned! /ZVS && .AVIATION...Very shallow and localized valley fog aside, VFR conditions have persisted all across the area under mostly scattered skies. Strong southeast winds will begin to build in this evening, with gusts over 30 kts along the coast overnight. Marginal low level wind shear should be expected for coastal terminals. Very light rain showers may move across the area overnight, but ceilings staying over 4 kft will most likely maintain VFR conditions. There is little chance (less than 20%) of ceilings dropping to MVFR. Strong winds will continue to build Saturday with increasing risk for low level wind shear. /JHW && .MARINE...Much calmer conditions have very briefly built over the waters with gusts mostly below 15 kts and short period seas slowly falling below 6 feet. These calmer conditions will be very short lived as winds turn south easterly and rapidly build late this afternoon and Friday night. Widespread gale conditions will build across all the waters by early Saturday morning. Conditions will reach the northern outer waters first and slowly spread south and closer to shore through the day. Confidence is high that storm conditions (gusts over 48 Kts) will effect the outer waters (90% of ensemble members) by early Saturday afternoon. Though gale conditions will build into the inner waters around this time, wind speeds will likely stall during the day before surging later in the evening. There is a 50% chance of at least isolated storm gusts in the inner waters Saturday evening. Very steep short period seas will build in excess of 22 feet in the northern waters, though the Cape will partially protect the inner waters and keep seas closer to 8 to 12 feet. Seas in the southern waters will also be slightly lower. Strong gale to storm force winds will persist into Sunday. Winds will remain gale force but likely fall below storm force during the day Sunday with short period seas gradually falling closer to 12 feet. Short period seas and winds will gradually decline early next week with only a very minor mid period northwest swell up to 6 feet mixing with the short period seas. /JHW && .HYDROLOGY...An Atmospheric River event is expected to impact NW California this weekend and into mid next week. A prolonged period of moderate to heavy rainfall will bring the potential for rapid rises on rivers, streams and creeks across the region. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) included Del Norte County, Humboldt, Mendocino and Lake counties in the Marginal Risk (at least 5%) of excessive rainfall for Day 4 and 5 (Monday and Tuesday). There is a 55 to 80% chance for 24-hr probability of precipitation exceeding 1 inch from 4 PM MOnday through 4 AM Tuesday, with up to 90% chance for the King Range in Humboldt County. A rapid rise of the main stem river is expected Sunday night through mid next week. At this point the CNRFC is forecasting all main stem rivers remain below flood stage during this event. There is a 20-30% chance for the Eel River at Fernbridge reaching or exceeding action/monitor stage on Wednesday. Meanwhile, there is a less of 10% chance for reaching or exceeding action/monitor stage for Mad River at Arcata. The rest of the main stem river are not expected to reach/exceed flood stage as of yet./ ZVS && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... High Wind Warning from 1 AM Saturday to 10 AM PST Sunday for CAZ101. High Wind Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Sunday for CAZ102-104>106. Wind Advisory from 7 AM Saturday to 10 AM PST Sunday for CAZ103. Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM Saturday to 4 PM PST Sunday for CAZ107. Wind Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 10 AM PST Sunday for CAZ109-110-112. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for PZZ450. Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM PST Sunday for PZZ450. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM PST Saturday for PZZ455. Gale Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 1 PM PST Sunday for PZZ455. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for PZZ470. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM PST Saturday for PZZ470. Storm Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 4 AM PST Sunday for PZZ470. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM PST Saturday for PZZ475. Gale Warning from 1 AM to 1 PM PST Saturday for PZZ475. Storm Warning from 1 PM Saturday to 4 AM PST Sunday for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

381 FXUS66 KMTR 202248 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 248 PM PST Fri Feb 20 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 247 PM PST Fri Feb 20 2026 - Mainly dry on Saturday, with northern Sonoma County having a 15- 40% chance of rain. - Pattern change begins on Sunday, with unsettled weather trying to sag into the North Bay . - Unsettled weather with periods of rain and wind through the long term forecast period. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 247 PM PST Fri Feb 20 2026 (This evening through Saturday) An upper level disturbance passes over the region today which brought isolated rain showers this morning and left cloudy skies for the afternoon. Weak upper level high pressure builds over the intermountain west today, while a deep upper level low from the Gulf of Alaska digs into the Eastern Pacific. Flow becomes a bit more zonal on Saturday, which may lead to showers skirting portions of Sonoma County and a mix of sun and clouds throughout the rest of the area. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 247 PM PST Fri Feb 20 2026 (Saturday night through next Thursday) Upper level ridging builds over the Desert Southwest, nudging the aforementioned upper level low to the north some. This should keep much of the region dry on Sunday, with rain chances being confined to the North Bay. This patter looks to hold until Monday, before the ridge flattens and the flow becomes more zonal. The upper level will tap into some tropical moisture, fueling our early-mid week rain and wind. Thankfully, the system doesn`t look to stall in any regions, which will alleviating a pro-longed flood concern. Given recent rains, shallow landslides are possible as well as minor flooding of low-lying, poor drainage, and urban areas. Ponding of water and slick roadways are a guarantee. Mainstem river flooding is not expected with a low probability (less than 20%) of occurrence. Saturated soils, mean there is also a chance for downed trees with any stronger gusts. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 958 AM PST Fri Feb 20 2026 High confidence for VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF period. Passing high clouds will persist through 00Z Saturday with them returning by around 09Z Saturday. Lower cloud cover (still VFR) is forecast to return late in the night across the North Bay and then spread southward throughout the day on Saturday. Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Weak offshore flow will prevail this morning with northwesterly flow possible at times early this afternoon. However, wind speeds are forecast to be generally less than 6kt. Southerly winds are forecast to increase after 18Z Saturday ahead of an approaching system. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. North to northwesterly winds are forecast to develop early this afternoon and prevail through around sunset. Light and variable winds are forecast until becoming southerly around 03Z Saturday and increasing into Saturday morning ahead of an approaching system. && .MARINE... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 958 AM PST Fri Feb 20 2026 Winds will shift to southerly and increase over the weekend, the strongest winds across the northern waters with gale force gusts by Saturday afternoon. As a result, rough to very rough seas redevelop by late weekend into early next week. Rain chances return late Saturday and continue into early to mid next week. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1047 PM PST Tue Feb 17 2026 The following are the record low temperatures at the long term sites for Friday, Feb 20th. Location Record Low Santa Rosa 26 in 1913 Kentfield 27 in 1913 San Rafael 32 in 2018, 2006 Napa 27 in 2018 Richmond 35 in 1990 Livermore 27 in 2018 San Francisco 38 in 1897 SFO Airport 36 in 2018 Redwood City 30 in 1933 Half Moon Bay 28 in 2018 Oakland Museum 36 in 2011 San Jose 30 in 1897 Salinas Airport 28 in 1953 && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM PST Saturday for CAZ504- 506-510-513-515-528. Extreme Cold Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM PST Saturday for CAZ514- 516>518. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 3 AM PST Sunday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PST Saturday for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM PST Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Gale Warning from 3 PM Saturday to 3 AM PST Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Gale Warning from 3 PM to 9 PM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PST Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Gale Warning from 3 AM Saturday to 3 AM PST Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...RGass MARINE...RGass Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

680 FXUS66 KOTX 202213 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 213 PM PST Fri Feb 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light snow returns to the Cascades Saturday. - Wetter and warmer systems arriving Sunday into next week with snow in the mountains and mainly rain for the lowlands. - Winter travel conditions expected over the mountain passes next week. && .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures moderate over the weekend with additional chances for mountain snow and mix of rain and snow in the lowlands. Travel over the Cascades could be challenging at times next week with periods of moderate to heavy snow. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Sunday: Today will be cool and mostly dry as shortwave ridging builds into the region. There is a 15-30% chance of snow showers before sunset this evening. A round of light to moderate snow is in store for central Washington Saturday bringing wintry travel conditions to the region. This is a classic weak upslope setup for central WA with a surface low deepening off the CA coast and moving north Friday night bringing a warm front through the region. Cold air dammed up in the east slopes of the Cascades will keep temperatures cold enough for snow down to the valley floors Saturday. Antecedent dry air from Thursdays cold front passage, the strength of the upslope flow, and the fast speed of the warm front surging north are limiting factors from making this a bigger event. Nonetheless, areas of central WA west of highway 97 can generally expect around 1-5. Some areas may see more from local terrain influence. The snow will become lighter overnight into Sunday but snow levels start to rise ahead of the cold front passage as warmer air continues to filter in from the southwest. The precipitation footprint expands east into much of the INW by Sunday afternoon, but most of the snow will be falling above 3500 feet in the Cascades to 5000 feet in southeast Washington. Monday and through Friday: The cold front passage itself looks to brush the region Sunday, keeping moist air in place Monday. Continuing weak low pressure in the Pacific and a strengthening upper level jet will bring even more moisture to the region (PWAT increasing to 200-220% of normal) by Monday evening. Snow will still be confined to the mountains still Monday evening above 3500-5000 ft. There are varying time frames for a frontal passage Tuesday but the front appears to bring breezy southwest winds. Overall there is an 80% chance of 1+ foot of snow at Stevens Pass Monday and Tuesday. Those chances decrease to 25% for Lookout Pass. There is a 25-50% chance of wind gusts greater than 40 mph Tuesday for the Columbia Basin, Palouse, and Spokane area. Additional shortwaves bring more rounds of light to moderate snow to the mountains next week. /DB && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: A shortwave ridge will build into the region Friday. KLWS-KPUW will be slowest to realize the drier air. There is high confidence for all sites to return to VFR skies this afternoon. There is a 20% chance of -SHSN for KPUW from 20z-00z but impacts will be minimal. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Confidence for post frontal -SHSN is low but moderate to high confidence that these will have minimal impacts in regards to snow accumulations. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 23 42 30 49 38 46 / 0 10 10 30 80 80 Coeur d`Alene 22 42 28 47 36 44 / 0 0 0 30 80 90 Pullman 25 41 32 48 36 49 / 0 0 10 20 60 80 Lewiston 27 46 33 54 39 54 / 0 0 0 10 40 60 Colville 18 38 26 44 33 43 / 0 10 10 40 90 90 Sandpoint 22 37 28 41 34 41 / 0 10 10 30 90 100 Kellogg 22 41 31 47 38 44 / 0 0 0 30 70 90 Moses Lake 26 44 32 49 36 47 / 0 20 20 40 60 60 Wenatchee 25 36 31 41 34 42 / 10 50 40 70 70 80 Omak 21 37 31 42 35 44 / 0 20 30 60 70 70 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

131 FXUS66 KPDT 202246 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 246 PM PST Fri Feb 20 2026 .Updated for Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warming with breezy to windy conditions - Light mountain snow will continue over the weekend - Active weather patter continues through midweek && .DISCUSSION... Current satellite shows clouds beginning to move overhead with some areas already seeing overcast skies. Radar shows no returns with ground observations showing dry conditions beneath the cloud decks. Temperatures are still on the cooler side with the north-northwest flow aloft continuing to being in cooler air. Temperatures will be in the upper 30s to low 40s for much of the region today. Models show a surface weak warm front will make its way across the region from the south east moving to the northwest. With the winds being from the south and southeast, winds will be downsloping through the Blue bringing warmer temperatures across the eastern portion of the Basin with 50-80% of the NBM raw ensembles in agreement that the foothills of the Blues of OR and the eastern portions of the Basin will see temperatures in the low to mid 50 Sunday. This warm front will also bring an increase in winds through the Grande Ronde Valley tomorrow. In house pressure gradient models as well as deterministic models show that there will be a tightening of the pressure gradients of near 5 mb over the Grande Ronde valley. This has lead to a wind advisory being issued from 4 AM through 10 PM Saturday for south to southeast winds between 30-35 mph and gusts nearing 45 mph with confidence is 60-90% these winds will materialize. Models then show the gradients to tighten even farther Sunday and have moved a bit farther northwest over the area which has lead to an High Wind Watch being issued for the Grande Ronde Valley and the foothills of the northern Blues of OR Saturday evening through Sunday evening with south to southeast sustained winds peaking between 40-45 mph and gusts to near 60 mph with again confidence 60-90% these high winds will materialize. Even with the weak ridge moving in over the weekend, models still show precipitation in the for of snow will continue to fall over primarily the Cascades with light accumulations along the eastern mountains as well as the northern Blues. 48-hour snowfall chances of 2 inches is 70-90% for the Cascades and 30-50% for 4 inches. As for the eastern mountains and the northern Blues, 50-70% chances of 0.50-1" is possible over the weekend. Lastly, models are beginning to come into better alignment with the next incoming wave trough. Models show the system to drop down from the Gulf of Alaska and reach the PacNW by Sunday night into Monday. All models show this to be a wet system bringing in continued mountain snow with some low elevation rain through the week. Clusters show that the main variances is the timing/amplitude of the system as well as with precipitation amounts. Regardless, all models and ensembles are leading to a wet start to the week ahead with 50- 70% confidence. 90 && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... VFR conditions were occurring at all TAF sites except for YKM, where some lingering MVFR CIGS remain. Expect the MVFR to continue at YKM and the VFR elsewhere. By morning, some light snow will develop at DLS, RDM and BDN and MVFR is forecast at that time. All the other sites will remain VFR. Some light snow may move into YKM by the end of the period, and return them to MVFR. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 27 46 33 56 / 0 10 10 30 ALW 29 46 35 54 / 0 10 10 30 PSC 27 45 30 53 / 0 20 10 30 YKM 26 38 28 45 / 10 60 40 50 HRI 27 45 30 55 / 0 20 10 30 ELN 23 35 28 41 / 10 60 50 70 RDM 25 44 30 52 / 20 30 10 40 LGD 25 41 33 49 / 0 10 10 30 GCD 23 41 31 49 / 0 20 10 20 DLS 32 41 33 47 / 20 80 40 80 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Saturday for ORZ049. High Wind Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening for ORZ049-507. && $$ UPDATE...90 DISCUSSION...90 AVIATION...77

103 FXUS65 KREV 202042 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1242 PM PST Fri Feb 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry conditions and mostly clear skies persist with cold temperatures through Sunday along with below zero wind chills near the Sierra crest with gusty breezes. * Another storm arrives Monday with valley rain and high elevation mountain snow through Wednesday. Flooding potential exists, but confidence remains low. && .DISCUSSION... Our brief break in the active storm pattern has arrived! Don`t forget to wear your sunscreen and sunglasses because the sun is reflecting off all that fresh snow cover. Looking out to the rest of the weekend, it will be quite cold out, but fairly typical for late February. Morning lows tomorrow will be in the teens for western NV and NE CA, single digits for the Tahoe Basin, and single digits above and below zero for Mono County. Primary concern for the next few days will be wind chills below zero in the highest terrain at the ridges, so be sure to bundle up in layers. The next storm arrives on Sunday as a large trough drops just off the Pacific Northwest coastline. There could be multiple waves with this trough and for now it looks like NE CA and far NW NV will get a little preview of gusty winds and some light showers late Sunday into early Monday. The bulk of the storm is still slated to arrive during the Monday-Wednesday timeframe with the most intense precipitation on Tuesday. Snow levels with this first wave on Sunday will still be relatively low (around 6000 feet), but snow levels will gradually rise from Monday into Wednesday to above 7000 to 8000 feet. With what we are looking at right now, we`d plan on seeing heavy, wet snow in the Sierra above 7000-8000 ft and then mostly rain below that threshold. The combination of rain over snow will lead to rises and fast flows on areas rivers and creeks. While it is still a bit early to say if we will see river flooding, there is a heightened concern. In preparation for the wetter/warmer conditions, everyone should be sure to clear all gutters and drains free of snow. Do you have snow piled up high on your home? Now`s the time to ensure it is safely removed ahead of the wet weather next week. Rain on snow could result in roof avalanches and other atypical impacts. It does look like warmer and drier conditions resume after midweek next week, but we may be dealing with residual rain-on-snow impacts. -EL && .AVIATION... Plan on mostly VFR conditions over the weekend. Some patchy fog is also possible tonight into Sat 15Z at KTRK. Otherwise, dry and cold conditions prevail along with generally light and variable winds. -EL && .AVALANCHE... No snow is forecast through the weekend with mostly sunny skies and occasional high clouds. Winds Saturday: Ridgetop gusts 10 to 40 mph out of the W/SW with wind chills of -10 to -15F. Sunday: Wind gusts begin to increase on Sunday ahead of the next system with winds 50 to 70 mph possible along the highest ridges. Monday PM: The next storm arrives with more snow to the mountains along with gusty winds. However, this system is warmer and may lead to rain over snow in elevations below 7 to 8 kft. -HC/EL && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$

300 FXUS66 KSTO 202135 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 135 PM PST Fri Feb 20 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly dry with cold morning temperatures through Saturday with a few showers and snow showers over the northern mountains and Coast Range - Warm storm brings additional rounds of rain, gusty southerly winds and high elevation mountain snow Sunday through mid next week && .DISCUSSION... ...Today through Saturday... Current GOES-West visible satellite imagery shows partly to mostly cloudy skies for much of interior northern California on this Friday afternoon, with the fresh snowpack peaking through. Drier conditions have returned to the area today behind the passage of the storm system that has exited the region. Another round of cold temperatures will impact the area tonight into Saturday morning, and a Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for the southern Cascades and northern Sierra where lows may drop to the teens to low 20s, with isolated single digits above 7000 feet. Some showers and snow showers will move in tonight through Saturday over the Coast Range and Shasta County mountains, however dry weather is expected elsewhere. Some periodically breezy southerly winds can be expected on Saturday as well. ...Sunday into Next Week... Ensemble guidance indicates increasing confidence in a warm system arriving later this weekend that will bring additional rounds of rain and high elevation mountain snow into next week, along with periodically breezy southerly winds. The snow levels with this storm continue to trend higher, with latest guidance showing snow levels initially around 4500-5500 feet on Sunday, rising to 6000-8000 feet Monday, then 7500-8500 feet Tuesday, and then lowering down to 5500-7500 feet Wednesday into Thursday as precipitation tapers off. The latest precipitation forecast and wind gust forecast has decreased. We will continue to monitor the trends for this storm closely. Slick roads, localized flooding, and minor travel delays will be possible with this next storm. Be sure to check back for updates as we get closer! && .AVIATION... General VFR conditions over the next 24 hours at TAF sites. Surface winds generally at or below 12 knots through most of the forecast period. Southerly winds increase after 18Z Saturday. Periods of MVFR/IFR conditions in the mountains north of Interstate 80 after 06Z Saturday due to showers and snow showers. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Cold Weather Advisory in effect for the northern Sierra and southern Cascades from 10 PM this evening through 10 AM Saturday. && $$

164 FXUS65 KMSO 201908 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1208 PM MST Fri Feb 20 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Quiet Weekend: Snow showers end this evening, then patchy fog potential, mix sun/clouds. - Wintry Weather Returns Monday/Tuesday: Moderate pass level impacts, wintry mix (messy commute potential) in the valleys. - Gusty winds/organized snow showers mid next week Scattered snow showers will continue into this afternoon, leading to brief accumulations on roadways and rapidly changing driving conditions. However, this activity will quickly subside around sunset. High pressure ridging follows for the weekend, bringing a mix of sunshine and high-to-mid-level clouds as daytime temperatures gradually moderate. Patchy morning fog and stratus will be a concern, especially across northwest Montana. Precipitation will begin early Monday morning and last through Tuesday as a weak-to-moderate atmospheric river pushes through the Northern Rockies. A notable concern is moderate impacts at pass levels, with a 50-60% probability of at least 6 inches of snow for the MT/ID border passes. Precipitation type remains the primary uncertainty. Currently, NBM snow levels appear too high for Monday morning given the warm air advection pattern and limited mixing, so we have trended these downward. This adjustment introduces the potential for light snow in the valleys of northwest Montana early Monday. Thereafter, enhanced mixing should allow snow levels to rise, transitioning valley precipitation to a wintry mix, most likely rain and snow at night, changing to rain during the afternoon hours. Overall, prepare for slick pass-level roads and potentially messy valley roads, primarily during the nighttime and morning periods. The character of the event shifts as an upper-level trough and cold front pass through late Tuesday into Wednesday. Westerly winds will increase alongside a threat for organized snow showers and banding. We will be watching this period closely for more significant valley impacts. Looking further ahead, gusty winds are expected through the second half of next week. Friday, in particular, stands out among guidance as a notably windy period and will be another timeframe to monitor as we get closer. && .AVIATION...Scattered snow showers will continue into this afternoon, leading to brief accumulations and low visibility for KMSO, KHRF and KBTM. However, this activity will quickly subside around sunset. A ridge of high pressure this weekend will bring a mix of sun and clouds, with patchy fog each morning, especially across northwest Montana. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

142 FXUS65 KBOI 202133 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 233 PM MST Fri Feb 20 2026 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night...One more cold night as the main upper trough exits east, then 5-10 degrees warmer Saturday and another 5 to 10 degrees Sunday as a broad Pacific upper ridge comes inland and replaces the trough. Warm-frontal clouds will make Saturday night warmer than tonight along with a slight chance of rain and snow in the northern-most mountains, then decreasing clouds in the warm sector will make Sunday warmer than Saturday. In addition, deep surface low pressure off the coast will produce gusty south or east winds 15 to 30 mph in our CWA Saturday through Sunday, even persisting through the nighttime hours. .LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...Warming continues with strong southwesterly flow aloft as a deep low approaches. Temps on Monday reach around 10 degrees above normal with gusty winds ahead of the precipitation coming that night. Precip chances rise to 50- 90% Monday evening through Tuesday as a strong moisture core passes over the area. Chances are higher over higher terrain, but the warm temps will keep snow levels elevated at about 6 kft MSL. Moderate precipitation totals are likely, with heavier amounts in the mountains favored by strong flow aloft. Temperatures on Tuesday will cool by several degrees. Snow levels drop behind the system on Wednesday morning to 3-5 kft MSL, though much drier air will end the period of widespread precipitation. Lingering showers on Wednesday will clear out by Thursday as the moisture moves north of the area. A slight chance of precipitation remains through the rest of the week, though most deterministic runs shows the moisture staying north of the forecast area. Gusty winds continue each afternoon. && .AVIATION...VFR and low-mid level ceilings. Fog in mountain valleys is possible Saturday morning. Surface winds: SW-NW 5-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt near KTWF/KJER, becoming S-SE tonight. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W 10-20 kt. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: NW 4-9 kt becoming SE tonight. Weekend Outlook...Mostly VFR. Local IFR fog in mtn valleys each morning. Surface winds: SE 5-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, except in highlands and the Snake Plain where gusts up to 30 kt are possible. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....JM AVIATION.....JM

694 FXUS65 KLKN 202005 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1205 PM PST Fri Feb 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... 1205 PM PST Fri Feb 20 2026 * Cold Weather Advisory for most of Northern and Central Nevada tonight into early Saturday morning * Low temperatures tonight around fifteen degrees below normal for this time of year * Warming trend Sunday and Monday * Periods of mountain snow and valley rain in Northern Nevada Tuesday and Tuesday night && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through Thursday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Northwesterly flow will advect a very cold air mass into the service area tonight. Low temperatures throughout Northern and Central Nevada tonight will be about fifteen degrees below normal for this time of year. Minimum apparent temperatures tonight will be below zero in the coldest valleys of Northern and Central Nevada. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for most of Northern and Central Nevada from 9 PM PST this evening until 8 AM PST Saturday morning. Here are probabilities of minimum temperatures of 5 degrees or lower for select locations in Northern and Central Nevada tonight: Ely - 100% Eureka - 96% McGill - 90% Elko - 80% Winnemucca - 80% Battle Mountain - 75% Carlin - 75% Spring Creek - 70% McDermitt - 55% Wells -50% A ridge of high pressure will amplify over the Western United States Saturday through Monday. A warming trend is expected Sunday and Monday. By Monday afternoon, high temperatures will be around five degrees above normal for this time of year. A trough of low pressure should pass across Northern Nevada Tuesday and Tuesday night, resulting in periods of precipitation. Snow levels will start at around 7,000 feet Tuesday morning, before dropping to about 6,000 feet Tuesday night. The majority of this precipitation will fall Tuesday night. Forecast confidence is low Wednesday and Thursday regarding the possibility of additional precipitation. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence in the Cold Weather Advisory for most of Northern and Central Nevada tonight into early Saturday morning. High forecast confidence regarding a warming trend Sunday and Monday. Moderate forecast confidence in periods of mountain snow and valley rain Tuesday and Tuesday night. The only deviation to the NBM model output was to adjust POPs downward Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail at all terminal through at least the next 24 hours. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM PST Saturday NVZ030-031-034>041. && $$ 87