831 FXUS66 KSEW 132245 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 245 PM PST Fri Feb 13 2026 .SYNOPSIS...A frontal system will continue to bring lowland rain and higher elevation mountain snowfall into early Saturday. Drier conditions will develop late Saturday through Sunday. Cooler temperatures, along with periods of unsettled weather, are expected at times Monday through midweek with deep troughing over the Western US. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...A front is continuing to move across Western Washington this afternoon, bringing steadier lowland rain and higher elevation mountain snowfall. Precipitation will continue at times through Saturday, although the bulk of the stratiform precipitation will move east of the Cascades by tonight. Snow levels around 3500 to 4000 feet this afternoon will fall to 2000 feet on Saturday. This will result in light to moderate snow accumulation for the Cascades, with total accumulation amounts of 2 to 5 inches for Snoqualmie and Stevens Pass, and near 7 to 10 inches for Mount Baker. Drier weather will return on Sunday as the bulk of the precipitation associated with an upper low offshore is focused into California. Some clearing on Sunday may result in areas of fog Sunday morning. Otherwise, highs will range in the mid to upper 40s this weekend. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...A pattern change begins on Monday as deep upper troughing dives southwards and becomes situated offshore of the Pacific Northwest. This will promote the return of unsettled weather for Western US. Predominantly, this will lead to colder temperatures for next week, especially the overnight lows. Forecasted low temperatures for next week range in the upper 20s to mid 30s for an extended period due to continued troughing. In addition, precipitation is expected to spread northwards early Monday, as the trough deepens offshore. There remains uncertainty in the exact location and intensity of any precipitation on Monday, but a rain/snow mix can`t be ruled out at this point, dependent on the precipitation rates. However, temperatures will be marginal, and with likely south flow at the surface, little to no accumulation is expected in the lowlands. We`ll continue to monitor this feature on Monday. Deep upper troughing will then remain focused over the Western US into midweek, with continued light precipitation at times. This pattern will also promote additional mountain snowfall, as the cooler pattern continues into the extended period. JD && .AVIATION...West to southwesterly flow aloft as a front moves over western Washington this afternoon. Mixed bag of ceilings this afternoon as localized heavier rain is bringing MVFR/IFR to some terminals along the coast and in the interior. Expect widespread MVFR throughout the rest of the afternoon and evening as rain continues with localized areas of IFR. S/SW surface winds generally around 5 to 10 knots. KSEA...MVFR conditions this afternoon with vsbys in the 3-5 SM range as some heavier rain moves through the terminal. MVFR conditions likely will continue throughout the evening and overnight with S/SW winds 5 to 10 knots, decreasing to 3 to 6 knots overnight. Mazurkiewicz && .MARINE...A front will continue to move over the marine waters this afternoon for mainly elevated seas. Brief surface high pressure builds over the weekend for northerly flow over the area waters. A series of troughs look to dig over the coastal waters early next week which will bring unsettled conditions over the water throughout the week. Coastal seas generally in the 10 to 15 feet range this afternoon and will slowly decrease throughout Saturday. Seas look to get below 10 feet on Sunday before building back upwards to 9 to 13 feet by Tuesday. Mazurkiewicz && .HYDROLOGY...No river flooding is expected over the next 7 days. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-Grays Harbor Bar. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm. && $$

094 FXUS66 KPQR 132222 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 222 PM PST Fri Feb 13 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Light rain will spread over the region as a cold front pushes eastward. Lower chances of precipitation on Sunday as low pressure stalls off the northern California coast. There is moderate confidence in the pattern remaining cool and wet through next week as upper level troughing persists over the region, though there is low confidence is exact details at this time. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Sunday Night...A cold front continues to move southeast toward the region, bringing precipitation to the region. Light rain has started along the coast and is expected to spread inland this afternoon. Precipitation totals through Saturday morning are expected to be highest along the Coast where 0.5-1.0 inches are rain are expected. Totals inland through the Willamette Valley and I-5 corridor in WA are expected to be lower in the 0.1-0.3 inch range with slightly higher amounts closer to 0.5 inches in the foothills of the Cascades and Coast Range. Snow levels around 3500-5000 feet this evening will gradually drop as the front moves through and colder air aloft filters in. Snow levels over the southwest WA and north OR Cascades will drop to between 2500-3000 feet while the central OR Cascades see snow levels in the 3500-4000 foot range tonight. Snow totals through Saturday morning are mainly expected above 3000 feet with 1-3 inches expected around Government Camp and near Willamette Pass with slightly higher totals of 3-5 inches around McKenzie and Santiam Passes. The pattern remains active through the weekend as the upper level low pinches off and moves toward central CA, leaving OR in the saddle point between upper level disturbances. As such, post- frontal precipitation chances will persist through the weekend, but will trend lower as the cut-off low develops. Weaker forcing and the more showery precipitation will lead to lighter precipitation totals Saturday evening and into Sunday night. Precipitation totals through this period are expected to be highest across the Cascades and central OR Coast Range with 0.1-0.3 inches expected and lower totals in the Willamette Valley topping out around 0.1 inches. Areas around the Portland Metro and north will see little to no precipitation. -19 .LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...There is decent agreement among ensembles that an anomalously deep upper level trough drops south out of Alaska, bringing colder air aloft to the region early next week. Upper disturbances will also produce periods of precipitation across the region. 850 mb temperatures are likely to be in the -3 to -6 C range, which is marginal for snow to the valley floor with onshore flow. The NBM maintains low probabilities for lowland conversational snow at around 1-10% overnight and early each morning with higher probabilities for elevations above 500 ft. Any snow that does accumulate would quickly melt as temperatures rise above freezing each day, thereby limiting potential impacts. Confidence in snowfall totals over the Cascades remains low but trends support coinciding cold air and moisture which should bring healthy snowfall. Accumulation at pass level seems likely but exact timing and amounts are unclear so will continue to monitor the pattern for impacts. The latest guidance gives the best chances for exceeding 6 inches of snow during a 24-hr period for Thursday through Thursday night, at around 50-60% and 20-40% for 12 inches or more. This time period also corresponds with snow levels potentially falling to around 1500 ft. There is also a chance for snow to reach pass level in the Coast Range, mainly around highway 6 and 26. -19/DH && .AVIATION...The cold front continues to push inland with heavy rain and gusty winds though it has moved slower than previously thought. A mixture of MVFR and VFR flight conditions as thickening stratus moves inland. Most sites continue to bounce between the two levels. South to southwest winds through the period. Rain combined with wind has caused visibility to temporarily lower in some locations, especially along the north Oregon coast. Models suggest there is a potential for prolonged VFR CIGs within the Willamette Valley - likely due orographic lift off of the Coast Range but cooling and settling over night will promote a reduction in CIG level once again. Once day breaks, the front will have mostly exited the area and winds will shift to the north signifying the initial stages of a widespread VFR lift. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions prevail for the next hour or two as the front makes its slow approach towards KPDX. As it begins to rain, CIGs will lower slightly though there is a 50% chance that we could see conditions become MVFR. Rain will become heavy at times which may cause temporary reductions to visibility. Overnight, cooler air will allow for CIGs to settle further and thus, a more long-lived MVFR stratus is forecast. Back building off of the Cascades increases the probability for MVFR stratus to 60% after 17Z Sat. Northerly winds begin around 17-18Z Sat with speeds around 8-10 kt. -27 && .MARINE...Today has been a bit more complicated as the cold front that we had been waiting for stalled over the waters causing winds to increase and created a stronger westerly swell. Seas ended up building to 17 ft at 16 seconds at a number of buoys this morning, with the outer buoys still reporting similar heights. These heights have trended towards the 90th percentile for some of our models. There is a general trend of a slow decrease in wave heights behind the front, but due to it`s slow progress, those heights may linger longer than currently forecast. Winds are non-impactful at this time with gusts generally below 20 kt. As the front exits, winds will become northerly though the background swell remains west-northwesterly. Based on high resolution models, there is around a 20% chance of gale force winds in the southern waters of PZZ273 on Saturday evening into Sunday morning. The next period of concern lies on Thursday as another strong front moves over the waters. There is a 25-35% chance of gale force winds on this day at this point. -27 && .BEACH HAZARDS...A high threat for sneaker persists through Sunday evening due to a long period westerly swell. Waves can run up significantly farther on a beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Sneaker waves can suddenly knock people off of their feet and quickly pull them into the frigid ocean which may lead to serious injury or drowning. Caution should be used when in or near the water, especially those who will be razor clamming. Keep children and pets away from the surf zone. Keep off of jetties, rocks and logs near the surf zone. If you see someone swept into the sea do not swim in after them. Call 911 and keep an eye on them until help arrives. -10 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Saturday for PZZ210. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Saturday for PZZ251>253. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Sunday for PZZ271>273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

576 FXUS66 KMFR 132248 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 248 PM PST Fri Feb 13 2026 .DISCUSSION...Relatively quiet weather is expected through much of the weekend. An upper level trough is approaching the region this afternoon, bringing some increased cloud cover with most precipitation off to the north for now. There are some light returns on radar moving onshore this afternoon, but observation sites haven`t reported any measurements yet. There could be a few drops through this afternoon and early evening, but dry conditions are expected for most locations for the remainder of the day. Energy digs into an evolving trough tonight into Saturday that settles just off the coast of northern California by Sunday. As this pattern progresses, it will push a front onshore late this evening and overnight and the chances of measurable precipitation will increase this evening (from 20-30% to 60-90%) along the coast and into the Umpqua Basin. This front will stall along the coast into the day Saturday, and not make much inland progress. This results in precipitation chances dropping to around 30-50% south and east of the Rogue-Umpqua Divide. Rain amounts are a bit tricky since the front will be weakening in response to the energy digging offshore and the development of low pressure off the NorCal coast. 0.25-0.50" seems like the most likely amount, with up to around 1.00" (coastal areas) where rain is most persistent through Saturday evening. But here in Medford/Ashland, only a hundredth or two is currently forecast. The low spinning up offshore will cause the front to lift back to the north as a warm front late Saturday and Saturday night. This should maintain snow levels around or above 4500 feet through Sunday. Southerly flow will increase Saturday into Sunday and this will focus precipitation closer to the low along the coast and into the usual areas of NorCal, in western Siskiyou County and the upslope region around Mt. Shasta. Breezy southerly winds will pick up in the Shasta Valley Saturday and continue into Sunday. Mid-level flow and pressure gradients at this time don`t quite support wind advisory levels, though gusts to 40 mph are possible. Up until this point, winter impacts are fairly minimal with snow levels hovering around 4500-5000 ft and not much precipitation making it inland. That changes late Sunday into Monday, however, as low pressure starts nudging eastward and the front offshore gets pushed inland Sunday night into Monday. This is when we expect winter weather impacts to increase across northern California. The base of the trough, and the bulk of the energy/moisture looks to be directed into California, but a corridor of moderate to occasionally heavy upslope precipitation will remain directed into portions of NorCal, and especially the Mt. Shasta region. In coordination with our neighbors to the south, we`ve gone forward with with a Winter Storm Watch for all of southern and eastern Siskiyou County (Mt Shasta City Region) and for elevations above 3000 ft in western Siskiyou County starting Sunday night and going through early Wednesday morning. Lighter snow will fall to the north over the mountains (including the Cascades), but amounts look light at this time. We considered the need for a watch for the Cascades and Kalmiopsis Wilderness, but impacts north of the OR/CA border don`t really start adding up until later in the day Monday and into Tuesday when snow levels are dropping. We`ll hold off on any headlines north of the border for now, but look for updates in the coming days. Additional energy from the north dives southward late Monday into Tuesday, bringing a deep/cold trough just off the OR/WA coast, allowing for colder air to filter into the region. Some of that cold air will move in over SW Oregon and this will bring about more widespread impactful winter weather with snow levels dropping as low around 2000 feet (maybe even 1500 feet or so) for the usual spots west of the Cascades (Hayes Hill/Camas Mt). Anytime we get an air mass this cold, there is potential for snow at the valley floors and since the cold air mass will hang around for a while (Tue-Fri), there will be multiple opportunities. A lot will depend on timing of precip and just how sustained it is. Given that the trough looks to be overhead, it could be a scenario where it`s a showery airmass that brings periods of quick and spotty accumulations. And, given the mild pattern we`ve been in for the last month, the ground is quite warm, so nighttime and morning hours will be the most likely times for accumulation at the lower elevations. Aside from the West Side Valleys, winter weather impacts will increase across the Cascades, east of the Cascades as well as elevations generally above 2500 ft west of the Cascades, including the Kalmiopsis Wilderness region, especially as the flow becomes more westerly Monday into Wednesday. If the current forecast pans out, we`ll likely be considering Winter Weather Advisories for areas east of the Cascades as well as the Scott/Shasta Valleys in additions to potential Winter Storm Watches/Warnings for the higher terrain of the region. If you have travel plans Monday through Wednesday of next week, it`s best to check in frequently for updates as confidence increases in the finer details of the upcoming pattern. Here are some probabilities of 72 hour snow accumulations from the latest NBM for Monday 4pm through Wednesday 4pm: * Mountains above 4000 feet from the Cascades west: 60-95% for snowfall of 6 inches or greater. * Cascades and mountains in western/southern Siskiyou County: 70-90% chance for snowfall amounts of 12 inches or more in higher elevations (above 4500 ft). * Mount Shasta City area: 60-80% chance for 6 inches of snow, 40-60% chance for 12 inches of snow. * Lower passes on I-5 near Canyon Mountain and Sexton Summit: 40-60% chance for an inch or more of snow, 20-30% for 3 inches. * Hayes Hill, Camas Mountain, southern Illinois Valley, areas in and around Ashland, and portions of the lower Klamath River valley in western Siskiyou County: 40-60% chance for an inch or more of snow, 20-30% for 3 inches. * Tuesday night into Wednesday snow levels may drop even lower, down as low as 1000-1500 ft (20-30% chance of this occurring Tuesday morning, increasing to 40-50% chance of this occurring Wednesday morning). 20-40% chance for light snowfall (<1") down to lower valleys such as Medford, Grants Pass and Canyonville both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. && .AVIATION...13/18Z TAFs...A fairly large mix of ceilings persists this morning with LIFR ceilings and some fog near Lakeview and along the coast. Elsewhere, MVFR to VFR ceilings continues for valleys west of the Cascades and other locations along the coast. The next system should bering in another group of ceilings around 4000 to 6000 feet later this evening covering most of the forecast area. Rain should also enter the forecast later this evening ahead of the next cold front with rain and MVFR ceilings along the coast. Rain will persist along the coast into Saturday morning as the front stalls out. -Smith && .MARINE...Updated 300 PM PST Friday, February 13, 2026... A long period swell around 14 to 16 feet at 14 to 16 seconds is moving through our waters this evening. These conditions will be hazardous to small craft through Saturday morning and linger in the outer waters until Sunday afternoon. Winds don`t pick up significantly as this front eventually stalls in the outer waters. A weak low will likely develop in our waters late Saturday night into Sunday bringing a quick shot of southerly winds. Overall, unsettled weather will persist this weekend with conditions that are hazardous to small craft. Conditions are likely to improve late Sunday into Monday. But, seas then build again and are likely to become high and steep on Tuesday. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through late Tuesday night for CAZ080-082-083. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for PZZ350-356. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Sunday for PZZ370-376. && $$ MNF/CZS

118 FXUS66 KEKA 132319 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 319 PM PST Fri Feb 13 2026 .SYNOPSIS...An extended period of wet and colder weather that will span through next week will begin over the weekend. Significant mountain travel impacts begin from these systems by early next week and continue through much of the week. && .DISCUSSION...Shortwave ridging continue to shift eastward this afternoon, while an upper level trough deepen from the Gulf of Alaska. An approaching cold front is spreading high- level clouds across the forecast area this afternoon. Meanwhile, coastal stratus and low clouds persist along the river valleys. Onshore flow and some isentropic lifting focusing across the interior will take advantage of this moisture, and may produced some light rain late this afternoon and evening. Unsettled weather pattern return this weekend and continue through mid next week, as a series of cold trough and associated frontal system moves across the area. The first system is expected to evolve into a surface is expected to continue to approaches the area tonight and through the weekend. Pre- frontal showers are expected to increase tonight into Saturday, followed by a widespread precipitation on Sunday. Moderate to locally heavy rain amounts expected, with the heaviest focusing on areas south of Cape Mendocino. In addition, breezy to windy south to southeast winds is expected to developed over the coastal headlands and exposed ridges Saturday night into Sunday as a potent surface low will form well off the coast. However, uncertainties remains regarding of how strong those winds could be as models continues struggling with the placement of these surface low. At this point, breezy to windy south winds is most likely from Saturday into Sunday. NBM 90th percentile (worst case scenario) shows widespread 30 to 40 mph, with locally strongest over the more exposed ridges and coast headlands. A stronger and much colder trough will then dive down from the north Monday. The approaching trough will kick a previously mentioned surface low eastward into the California coast on Monday. An associated compact surface low is expected to track toward the Bay Area on Monday morning, and then shifting inland. Even so, enhanced wind will likely span through Mendocino and Lake counties where wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible over the ridges and some coastal headlands Monday afternoon and evening. This will followed by a potent and broad surface low over the NEPAC tracking southward along the West Coast Monday night through Tuesday. These have the potential to bring gusty west-to Northwest winds Monday night through Tuesday, focusing in Humboldt, Mendocino and Lake counties. In addition, an enhanced in precipitation is expected on Monday, with widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall. A colder air mass will subsequently spread across the West Coast Monday night through Tuesday, resulting in increasing instability and steep lapse rates. These will promote heavy precipitation, along with isolated thunderstorms (10-20% chance) and the potential for accumulating small hail along the coast by Tuesday. Most likely rainfall total amounts range from 1.5" to 3" in 72 hours from early Sunday to early Wednesday morning for most of the CWA, with up to 5.5" in the windward facing terrain. Minor flooding of smaller river, creeks and streams, urban areas with poor drainage will be possible. The main concerns with this system are the potential for heavy mountain snow, which would impact highway passes, along with the potential for lower elevation snow. Snow levels are expected to start about 5,000 feet Saturday and gradually drop to around 2,000 to 3,000 feet MSL by Monday night. There is uncertainty on just how low snow levels could get due to the probability of convective showers, which has the potential to lower snow levels for localized areas. There is a 35-45% chance for snow level less than 1500 feet for the northern portion of the area, and a 25-45% chance for below 2000 feet for Mendocino and Lake counties. A Winter Storm Watch is in effect starting first Sunday morning for elevation above 4500 feet in Trinity County, and then expanded for much of the interior forecast area Monday evening through Wednesday evening for elevations above 2000 feet for interior Del Norte, interior Humboldt and Trinity counties. A Winter Storm Watch is also in effect from Monday evening through Wednesday morning for elevations above 2500 feet in portions of interior Mendocino and Lake counties. Heavy snow, with storm total accumulations at 1 to 2.5 feet for elevations above 3000 feet possible in Trinity County, with locally up to 3.5 feet across the higher ridges in the Trinity Alps. 6 to 18 inches of snow possible for elevations above 2000 feet for interior Del Norte and interior Humboldt counties. Up to 5 inches of snow possible for elevations above 2500 feet in portions of interior Mendocino and Lake counties. Travel impacts are expected across much of highway 3 north of Weaverville and Hayfork Summit, Hwy junction 36 and 3 at South Fork Mountain, Hwy 299 at Berry Summit, Buckhorn Summit and Oregon Mountain, Hwy 101 in Rattlesnake Summit, and Hwy 175 in Cobb. Stay tuned for the latest updates! /ZVS && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFs)...Widespread stratus is being observed across the area, both over the interior valleys and the coast. Conditions are MVFR at all terminals. Ceilings will likely lift, perhaps to VFR conditions by this afternoon, and scatter out for the interior valleys. Coastal stratus is likely to remain this evening and overnight, with MVFR to VFR ceilings expected. Interior valleys, including UKI, could see stratus again tonight, with LIFR to IFR ceilings possible. Light rain showers are possible for Del Norte County by mid Saturday morning. JB && .MARINE...Northerly winds and steep wind waves continue to diminish as winds ease. A large long period northwest swell has built into the waters and is forecast to peak at around 12 ft at 16 seconds. Combined seas up to 14 ft are possible today. North winds continue to subside and turn southerly by this afternoon as low pressure approaches the area. The center of the low pressure is likely to be off the northern California coast, and the exact location of the strongest winds is currently uncertain. Strong northerlies are possible on the western edge of this low with moderate to strong southerlies possible on the eastern edge. High resolution models are showing some potential for gale force gusts Saturday afternoon and evening. As of now these winds look brief and isolated, but winds have been trending upwards in recent model runs. NBM still shows about 50% to 60% chances for gale force gusts in the outer waters. This will need to be watched for any potential upgrades to Gale Warnings. Steep southerly wind waves of 6 to 10 feet are also possible with these winds. Winds are likely to remain elevated through the week as the pattern remains active. There is at least a 30% chance for gale force gusts in the outer waters each day through Friday of next week. JB && .BEACH HAZARDS...A steep, northwest long period swell is building in, bringing a sneaker wave threat. This swell will peak around 12 to 13 feet at 16 seconds. This swell will align with beaches in Humboldt, Del Norte, and Mendocino counties, increasing the threat of sneaker waves. The wave is expected to produce set behavior with breakers leading to rapid and unexpected beach run ups of over 18 feet. Calmer winds and few short period seas along the coastline Friday will further enhance this danger making waves more sneaky, especially on steeper beaches. Take care if going to the beach late in the week. Choose flatter beaches if possible. Stay off of rocks, logs, and jetties. Never turn your back to the ocean! DS && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for CAZ101-103- 104-109. Winter Storm Watch from Monday evening through Wednesday morning for CAZ102-105-106-110-111-114-115. Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Wednesday morning for CAZ107-108. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for PZZ450. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Sunday for PZZ455-470- 475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

127 FXUS66 KMTR 131757 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 957 AM PST Fri Feb 13 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 305 AM PST Fri Feb 13 2026 - Hazardous beach conditions continue through early Saturday morning - Widespread rain and gusty winds return late Saturday and continue through much of next week - Temperatures drop starting early to mid next week as a colder airmass moves in && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 305 AM PST Fri Feb 13 2026 (Today and tonight) Foggy conditions have started developing across portions of the North Bay Valleys and in the vicinity of the SF Bay Shoreline. Given the lack of cloud cover across the interior, there is the potential for patchy fog to develop across portions of the Santa Clara Valley and East Bay Valleys as well. Stratus is likely to be more widespread across the region tonight with coastal sites such as Half Moon Bay and Monterey reporting cloud ceilings around 1000 ft. Overcast skies should clear by late morning/early afternoon before returning again Friday night. Morning temperatures will be chillier than over the last few days with lows in the low to mid 40s across much of the region while the interior Central Coast drops into the 30s. It will be a chilly start to the day but, fortunately, the afternoon will be seasonably warm with highs in the low to mid 60s. Today is last fully dry day of our brief respite from the rain. Take advantage of the day and finish up any outdoor preparations today or Saturday morning before we kick off our upcoming rain event late Saturday. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 305 AM PST Fri Feb 13 2026 (Saturday through Thursday) Another chilly morning is on the books on Saturday with morning temperatures in the low to mid 40s while the interior Central Coast drops into the 30s. Saturday acts as a transition day from dry to wet weather as a deep upper level trough from the Gulf of Alaska pushes in and displaces the upper level ridge to our east. While rain chances don`t increase until late Saturday, high level clouds are expected to build in throughout the day ahead of the troughs arrival. This will keep high temperatures slightly cooler (North Bay and elevated terrain) in the 50s to about the same (rest of the region) in the low 60s on Saturday as on Friday. If not taken care of previously, Saturday morning/afternoon is your best time to take care of any remaining outdoor preparations like cleaning the gutter, securing outdoor objects, or making sure drains are clear before the rain returns. Models are coming into agreement that rain will reach the region late Saturday evening and will continue through much of next week. That is not to say there won`t be any breaks or dry periods this week as models show this unfolding as multiple rounds of precipitation. From Saturday evening to next Friday, 3-5" of rain is expected across the interior while 4-6" of rain is expected across the coastal mountain ranges. The bulk of this rain will fall in the Sunday to Wednesday time frame as a surface low pressure system develops offshore and moves inland over the Bay Area. As we head into Monday/Tuesday, a colder airmass will advect southwards towards the Bay Area/Central Coast as a deep upper level trough pushes in from the Gulf of Alaska and merges with the original trough over the West Coast. The arrival of this second trough will bring additional rounds of rain through the end of the week. Flooding concerns will initially start out low but are expected to increase with each day of successive rainfall as the soils become more saturated. Flooding is largely expected to be nuisance (i.e. ponding on roadways or low lying areas prone to flooding) with mainstream river flooding not expected at this time. A marginal risk of excessive rainfall has been issued for Monday along the Central Coast and South Bay. Embedded thunderstorms remain possible this week but confidence is on the lower end. In terms of thunderstorm ingredients we look for a source of lift, a source of moisture, good low level shear, and instability. Our surface cold front will provide us with a source of lift and we do have decent moisture/MUCAPE on Monday and Tuesday. However, the low level shear does not look to be quite as impressive. While the low-level jet stream does impact our CWA, the upper level support is lacking in terms of the wind as the 200mb jet stream is located farther south over Southern California. In order for our thunderstorm chances to increase we would need the surface low pressure system to shift farther northwards as it moves onto land. Southerly winds strengthen across the region Sunday into Tuesday with gusts between 30-40 mph likely. A Wind Advisory will likely be needed for the coastline in the Monday-Tuesday period as the surface low moves inland. Probabilistic guidance shows a 50-60% chance of gusts above 40 mph along the Monterey Bay Region and an 80% chance across coastal Monterey County (Big Sur extending southwards to SLO county line). Another concern with this system is that temperatures drop starting Monday as the cooler airmass from the Gulf of Alaska. High temperatures will be seasonably cool in the upper 40s to 50s with the highest elevations peaking in the low to mid 40s. Morning low temperatures will get progressively colder each night with widespread lows in the 30s across the interior. Coastal areas will be chilly but remain slightly insulated and only drop into the low 40s (potentially the upper 30s if some of the colder scenarios play out). A mix of Cold Weather Advisories and Extreme Cold Warnings are likely to be needed next week after this airmass arrives. As an example of how cold this airmass is, the 12Z OAK sounding for 2/17 has a mean 850mb temperature of 5.1C. Model guidance is showing an 850 mb temperature of -3C at 12Z on 2/17 which would put it in the bottom 10% of 850 mb 12Z temps for 2/17. If you have any plants that are sensitive to the cold it would be a good idea to move them indoors this week, keep pets indoors overnight, and check on any neighbors who are sensitive to the cold. With the combination of cooler air temperatures and lingering moisture, we will see a drop in snow levels and a few flakes may be possible across the highest peaks of Mt. St. Helena, the Santa Lucia Range, and the Gabilan Range. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 956 AM PST Fri Feb 13 2026 IFR to VFR conditions across the region this morning. IFR/MVFR ceilings this morning are forecast to lift by 19-21Z, allowing for a return to VFR conditions across much of the region. Onshore winds are forecast to increase once again this afternoon, similar to yesterday. Moderate to high confidence for a return of stratus (IFR/MVFR) late in the night and into Saturday morning. KSTS, KAPC, and LVK also have the potential for fog Saturday morning. Going with a persistence forecast with winds easing late in the night. The one caveat, high clouds will also approach the region from the west ahead of our next system due to arrive late Saturday night and moreso into Sunday. Currently expecting conditions to lift and improve by 19-21Z Saturday. Vicinity of SFO...MVFR ceilings across the region this morning are forecast to improve to VFR by 19-21Z this afternoon with an increase in northwest winds. Moderate to high confidence for MVFR ceilings to return early Saturday morning along with weakening winds and continue through mid-to-late morning. Southerly winds are forecast for Saturday ahead of a frontal system arriving late Saturday and moreso into Sunday. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Intermediate MVFR conditions this morning with KMRY forecast to see lingering MVFR ceilings throughout the day (moderate to high confidence). Onshore winds increase this afternoon before becoming southerly overnight and into Saturday morning. Moderate to high confidence for MVFR early this evening and into Saturday morning (potentially lowering to IFR). && .MARINE... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 956 AM PST Fri Feb 13 2026 Hazardous conditions are expected through most of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh northerly breezes will prevail through Friday before winds strengthen and back Saturday morning to become strong and southerly. Rough seas will prevail for the inner waters and outer waters into the next week. Rain returns Saturday afternoon with wet conditions expected into next week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 945 PM PST Thu Feb 12 2026 Hazardous beach conditions are expected at Pacific Coast beaches, excluding the northern Monterey Bay, through Saturday morning. A moderate to long period northwesterly swell will result in an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet. Remember: stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure, remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf, and NEVER turn your back on the ocean! && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for CAZ006-505-509- 530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Saturday to 9 AM PST Sunday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...RGass MARINE...RGass Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

980 FXUS66 KOTX 132305 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 305 PM PST Fri Feb 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - High confidence for winter travel conditions over mountain passes this weekend. Particularly for Stevens Pass Friday night and then Lookout Pass Saturday night. - Unsettled weather pattern next week. A mix of rain and wet snow for valleys early next week becoming colder with snow at times in the valleys by mid week into next weekend. && .SYNOPSIS... A more active weather pattern returns this weekend, with mountain snow and a mix of rain and snow in the valleys. Falling snow levels and colder temperatures will bring the potential for light lowland snow accumulations next week. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Sunday night: Current satellite imagery for Friday afternoon shows a positively tilted upper level trough of lower pressure extending from northern BC into the eastern Pacific. A modest fetch of moisture is pushing across the coastal areas of Washington with a band of stratiform precipitation being picked up by radar. The prognosis for this fetch of moisture is to push east of the Cascades tonight. The eastern progression of the front will stall out and weekend generally from northeast Oregon to western Montana around Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening as the upper level pattern gets a bit more muddled around this time. Over the next 24 hours, we`ll see the upper level trough split with the bulk of the dynamics pinching off with a closed low forming in the southern branch of the storm track. The upper level low will take up residence off the northern California coast with moisture rotating around and feeding northward into the region at times over the weekend. The northern branch of the storm track with a weak shortwave will push through the frontal band and moisture plume through Saturday before it becomes hung up. The cutoff low off of California then increases the 500 mb heights across Idaho with a weak warm front wanting to push northward and this will have the effect of shifting precipitation back across the region for that Saturday night period. The main impacts during this 24-36 hour period will be for precipitation falling as snow over the mountain passes, and specifically over Stevens and Lookout Pass. Tonight will be a bit too mild for impactful snow over Lookout Pass and most will likely just melt. Stevens Pass is a different story as the front shifts across the Cascades this evening. Snow levels will drop and between 3-5 inches of snow is expected over the pass. Light to moderate snow intensity will occur, and doesn`t rise to the level of a winter weather advisory being needed. Anyone looking to travel over this pass tonight through Saturday morning should be prepared for winter travel conditions though. Lookout Pass will see a better potential for accumulating snow and winter travel conditions for Saturday night with a shortwave pushing through and enhanced isentropic ascent. Lookout Pass is expected to receive between 2-4 inches by Sunday morning. The mountains will continue to see minor snow accumulations into Sunday night before the potential for lowland snow increase into next week. Monday through Friday: A colder and potentially snowier pattern will set up for next week. There is a lot of uncertainty with shortwave disturbances and where snow may occur, but confidence is high that temperatures will trend colder and snow levels drop to valley floors. A couple notable periods are beginning to come into focus. The firs is for Monday. Another fairly deep low pressure trough will dig down along the western BC coastline on Monday. This will result in an area of deformation as this trough digs and interacts with moisture wrapping around the upper level low off of the the northern California coastline. Models are indicating an enhancement of precipitation somewhere between Seattle to the Columbia Basin depending on where this trough axis sets up. Easterly flow at low levels will also result in favorable orographics into the east slopes of the Cascades. There is uncertainty with the placement of the band, but the model consensus generally places it over north- central Washington. Timing of precipitation looks to be form Monday morning into Monday evening. It will be during the warm part of the day, which may result in a low snow ratio wet snow and may be a bit difficult to stick on road surfaces down the valleys. Snow may come down heavy enough that mild road temperatures will be overcome. It will be a period to monitor for winter travel impacts around Wenatchee to the Waterville Plateau and Okanogan Valley/Highlands along with in the east slopes of the northern Cascades. Another deformation band pivots across the region as the low off of California is ejected northeast across eastern Oregon. This looks to impact extreme Eastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle for Monday night into Tuesday. Precipitation type looks to be a mix of rain and snow south of I-90 and more likely wet snow in the northern mountain valleys. Temperatures will again be a limiting factor for snow accumulation efficiency. Northern valley locations will see the best potential for wet snow that may make travel for the Tuesday morning commute a little challenging. By Wednesday, the upper level trough centers in over the Northwest bringing us into the coldest and most unstable part of the forecast period. Snow ratios will increase and the increasing instability in the mid levels will bring the potential for more in the way of heavy snow showers. The uncertainty comes in with how much moisture will be available for snow. All areas will see the potential for snow for the latter portions of the work week, but determining where and how much is still very much uncertain. Plan for the potential for quick bursts of snow that could result in more rapid degradation in conditions compared to the weather systems over the weekend into early next week. The cold upper level trough moving in will also result in colder temperatures dropping below normal, which is something that we haven`t been able to say for a long time. /SVH && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: The Moses Lake Area (KMWH) and Lewiston-Clarkston Valley (KLWS) will experience persistent fog through the rest of this morning. The prognoses is for this fog to lift after noon today. The rest of the day into tonight will feature thickening mid to high level clouds with a frontal band moving into the Northwest off of the eastern Pacific. Light rain is expected across much of the Inland Northwest by the evening hours after 00-03Z. Probabilities for measurable rainfall are less in the lee of the Cascades and across southeast Washington with KEAT- KMWH/KPUW/KLWS carrying a PROB30 group in the TAF. More likely for rain across northeast Washington into North Idaho with prevailing rain in the TAF for KGEG/KSFF/KCOE. Ceilings will lower through the night into Saturday morning with widespread MVFR to IFR conditions expected. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Moderate confidence on timing of when fog will mix out of KMWH and KLWS today, but should mix out fairly quickly between 19-21Z. High confidence for VFR conditions after 21Z into the evening. Then moderate to high confidence of ceilings dropping below at least 3,000 ft agl. with rain at KMWH/KGEG/KSFF- KCOE/KPUW after 03-06Z tonight. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 36 43 34 42 33 42 / 80 40 30 20 20 50 Coeur d`Alene 36 43 33 41 32 43 / 80 70 40 30 30 50 Pullman 37 43 37 42 35 45 / 60 70 70 50 30 50 Lewiston 40 47 39 48 36 50 / 40 50 70 40 20 30 Colville 33 43 29 42 30 41 / 80 50 10 10 20 60 Sandpoint 34 40 32 39 30 40 / 90 90 40 30 40 70 Kellogg 37 41 35 40 33 43 / 80 90 70 60 50 60 Moses Lake 33 45 32 46 32 42 / 50 20 10 10 10 50 Wenatchee 33 44 32 43 31 38 / 40 20 10 0 10 50 Omak 34 44 29 42 30 40 / 40 10 0 0 0 40 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

595 FXUS66 KPDT 132306 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 306 PM PST Fri Feb 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Precipitation returns today through this weekend. - Moderate to heavy mountain snow possible Monday onward next week. && .DISCUSSION... A synoptic scale upper trough, positive tiled from nrn BC into the eastern Pacific, will shift toward the region through the weekend, with some feature of a cutoff low at 500 mb developing over the nrn CA coast. A swrly flow aloft will promote vort advection and positive lift into wrn WA Tonight, with Mountain snows increasing with time. IVT around the 100-200 kg/ms will limit the amount of snow and overall lowland QPF. Snow levels are already below pass levels. Ahead of the precipitation onset, HREF ensemble members do not show a returning dense fog signal across the Lower Columbia Basin/Tri-Cities area Tonight and Tomorrow morning, like has been seen the previous 48 hours. For this weekends system, the trend will begin with the mountain snows and low land rains to begin across the Washington Cascades with near 100 percent chances for snow. The snow amounts at pass level will not be significant, as the NBM mean shows about 2-3 inches at White and Snoqualmie Pass. Next week, another AR impacts the region as NBMs 25th to 75th members percentile range of outcomes of roughly 1 to 2 feet of snow at the pass levels for the 3 day period ending Saturday morning. With little if any snow (mean is 2 inches) east of Cle Elum into the Yakima Valley. Similar range of outcomes are showing from the NBM members for the other pass levels of the Washington and and Oregon Cascades, as well as the Northern Blue Mountains near Tollgate. Uncertainty is high as to the overall impacts given these range of outcomes but it seems reasonable to expects some headlines going into the midweek period. Russell/71 && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... VFR conditions currently for all sites except PSC where IFR stratus has been in place all day. Confidence in persistence of stratus this evening and overnight is low (30 percent). Elsewhere (and including PSC if stratus breaks) CIGs will lower this evening and overnight as a weak system moves over the region. Precipitation through Saturday afternoon is expected to be mostly light, and most likely (80 percent confidence) rain with low (20 percent) confidence of it mixing with snow at RDM/BDN. Sustained winds of 10 kts or less are anticipated for all sites. 86 && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 38 46 35 46 / 30 60 70 30 ALW 40 46 37 46 / 50 60 80 50 PSC 36 49 36 50 / 40 30 40 10 YKM 31 46 32 46 / 40 10 20 10 HRI 36 47 36 49 / 30 40 60 20 ELN 30 43 28 42 / 50 10 10 10 RDM 30 44 29 47 / 10 50 40 10 LGD 36 47 36 50 / 30 80 80 60 GCD 35 48 33 50 / 10 60 60 30 DLS 38 47 39 48 / 70 40 50 20 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...71 AVIATION...86

929 FXUS65 KREV 132204 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 204 PM PST Fri Feb 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Warm and dry through Sunday morning, with freezing fog overnight in Sierra valleys. Now is the time to prepare for the upcoming winter storm. * Winds to increase across Sierra ridgelines Saturday, further strengthening into Sunday and Monday. Winds to mix down to lower elevations late Monday into Tuesday. * Snow moves into the Sierra Sunday, with the highest snowfall rates Monday into Tuesday. Lower elevation snow is on the table by Monday night. Snow impacts to continue through much of next week. && .DISCUSSION... * Generally quiet conditions through Sunday morning with seasonably warm days and the only item of concern areas of freezing fog overnight in Sierra Valleys. Take advantage of this time, because we`re gearing up for what looks like the biggest storm we have seen since around Christmas, and unlike the other storms we have dealt with so far this year, it will be cold! * Winds begin to increase in the Sierra Saturday, further strengthening into Sunday and Monday. While a few lower elevation sites will see wind increases by late Monday, the strongest winds are anticipated Tuesday. There is a 40-70% chance for wind gusts to exceed 40 mph in lower elevations, highest for the wind prone locations, and exposed Sierra ridges will gust over 100 mph at times. This will bring rough air for aviation interests, and difficulties for those recreating in the Sierra. * Getting to the Sierra for this holiday weekend will be easy (well, at least as far as the weather goes...), but the question is can you make it home as conditions rapidly deteriorate? There will be a multi-day period with snow impacts starting Sunday evening and lasting through much of the work week. There will undoubtedly be short-lived breaks here and then between waves of the storm activity, but those timing details will need to be ironed out as we near the event. * For now, the highest snowfall rates will push into the Sierra Monday afternoon/night through Tuesday. Between the rates of snowfall and wind, there will be periods of white out conditions in the Sierra. Anticipate long travel delays and/or potential road closures. Check with our partners at NDOT and/or CalTrans for the latest information. * Probabilities to exceed 3 feet in the Sierra from this storm are around 90%, with 50th percentile totals pushing 2 to 5 feet in most Sierra locations. We`re also seeing EC EFI for snowfall lighting up more and more with each model run for a multi-day period. All travel routes in the Sierra will be impacted by snow Sunday through Thursday morning. This is a colder storm, with origins from Alaska, so snow levels may dip below 3000 feet by Tuesday, leading to large areas of snow-covered roads in the Sierra and not just the typical pass-level impacts. * As far as "down here", we will start with rain, but NBM p-type probabilities heavily favor snow by midday into the evening Monday. We`re seeing a solid 80-90% probability of 2+" of snow for foothill locations and around Virginia City, with 25-60% for the Greater Reno/Carson Metro Areas. Further east, there will be lesser amounts of rain and snow, but chances for any measurable snow (0.1"+) still exceed 60%. The commutes will almost certainly be disrupted at times through the week (90% forecaster confidence). * Precipitation chances begin to drop off Thursday into Friday to around 20-40%, but meteograms still show chances for snow at times into next week. -Dawn && .AVIATION... * Widespread VFR conditions across the region into the weekend, with a few clouds lingering over the mountain tops. Overnight, freezing fog will form in Sierra Valleys, including KTRK, which is likely to be LIFR 07z-17z. * SSW Winds begin to increase aloft through the weekend with FL100 winds around 30 kts Saturday, increasing to around 50 kts Sunday into Monday. This will bring rough air downwind of the Sierra. * Major winter storm moves into the region late this weekend and through next week. See main discussion for additional details. - Dawn && .AVALANCHE... A major winter storm will move into all avalanche center terrain late this weekend, lasting through much of next work week. Details on anticipated snowfall rates will be shared as higher resolution models become available. Here`s what we can know for now... * Snow looks to push into SACs terrain Sunday, with the highest intensities Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. For ESAC/BAC, it will be slightly later Sunday evening to begin, with the highest rates Monday night through Tuesday night. Keep in mind that the timing of this storm has been slowing, but has at least been a bit more consistent the past 24 or so hours. * Snow totals at the 50th percentile are 2 to 5 feet in the high country for SAC, with 18 to 30 inches in the lower elevations. For ESAC 2 to 4 feet in the high Sierra, with 15 to 30 inches closer to US-395. * Snow levels will crash Monday and Monday night, starting near 5500- 6000 feet and rapidly falling below 4000 feet. SLRs at the storms onset will be 8-10:1, transitioning to a more powdery 12-14:1 as the colder air arrives. * SWE estimates per 50th percentile guidance generally in the 2-4" range in the Sierra, with 1-3" for valley locations. Highest totals will be on western slopes to the crest which have a 60% chance to exceed 4". * Winds will increase across the ridgelines through the weekend, peaking Monday-Tuesday with peak Sierra gusts 100+ mph. Lower areas of the terrain to see wind gusts of 35-45 mph. Direction will generally be SSW. -Dawn && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Wednesday evening NVZ002. CA...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Wednesday evening CAZ071>073. && $$

689 FXUS66 KSTO 132132 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 132 PM PST Fri Feb 13 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions through Saturday with patchy fog in the Valley and Delta. - Widespread rain, gusty winds, isolated thunderstorms, and substantial mountain snow late Sunday through mid week with Major mountain travel impacts and snow levels in the foothills. - Potential for active weather to continue late next week into the following weekend. && .DISCUSSION... ...Today through Saturday... Mostly sunny and dry conditions are being observed across the region today, with temperatures in the 60s. We expect dry conditions to continue through Saturday and into the early portion of Sunday morning, with near normal temperatures. There is a potential for Valley/Delta Fog Saturday morning, with patchy visibility reductions to a half mile or less. ...Sunday through Next Week... A trough will continue to dig into the eastern Pacific late Saturday and into Sunday with a low pressure system moving onshore to CA Sunday evening through mid week bringing widespread rain, isolated thunderstorms, gusty winds, and heavy snow. Heaviest precipitation moves onshore and into the forecast area late Sunday and into Monday and continues through Tuesday. Snow levels Sunday and into Tuesday morning will be around 4500-5000 feet before lowering toward 3000-4000 feet late Tuesday and into Wednesday. There is some uncertainty with the timing of the cold push of temperatures which will affect snow level exact timing. NBM has been leaning toward a slower push of colder air delaying the onset of lowered snow levels. There exists a scenario (20 percent chance) for faster degradation of snow levels which would lead to higher snowfall in the lower elevation within the foothills around 3000-4000 feet and potential lower to 2000-3000 feet. As of right now forecasted amounts for snowfall are uncertain, but areas around 3000-4000 feet will see around a foot, while areas at the highest elevations will see 4 to 8 feet. If you plan to travel this holiday weekend through the mountains travel now and tomorrow before conditions start to deteriorate Sunday as the system moves onshore. Snow will be heavy and winds will strong with gusts up to 45 to 55mph. Heavy snow and potential whiteout conditions create dangerous to near impossible travel conditions. We will continue to monitor the lower elevations as any deviation of snow levels by a couple hundred feet increase the threat of impacts for communities within the foothills. If you plan to travel this weekend, have backup plans, carry a winter safety kit, and be prepared. Moderate rainfall and isolated thunderstorms are expected for areas within the Valley along with gusty southerly winds Sunday night through Wednesday. Total rainfall estimates are between 1 and 3 inches for areas within the northern San Joaquin Valley and into the Sacramento Valley. Up to 4 inches inches (isolated 5 inches) within the northern Sacramento Valley towards the lower foothills. Slick travel and localized urban and small stream flooding is possible. Winds will also be strong Monday through Wednesday for the Sacramento Valley with gusts of 35 to 45mph. As we push into the later part of next week and into the following weekend, the troughing over the eastern Pacific continues. This has been indicated in long term guidance. So, a potential active pattern looks to continue as we push into the last part of February. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions prevail through 6z before fog starts to develop and clouds move in. Areas around SCK and MOD see visibility reductions from 10z through 16z of 3-5SM while areas near Sacramento see visibility reductions down to 5SM. Otherwise skies will be BKN with winds light and variable 6z through the end of the TAF period for each site. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Wednesday evening for Burney Basin / Eastern Shasta County-Motherlode-Mountains Southwestern Shasta County to Western Colusa County-Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley-Shasta Lake Area / Northern Shasta County-West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas County/Lassen Park. Wind Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 10 PM PST Wednesday for Central Sacramento Valley-Northern Sacramento Valley-Southern Sacramento Valley. && $$

842 FXUS65 KMSO 132118 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 218 PM MST Fri Feb 13 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - This Weekend: Minor pass level snow impacts along with a valley rain/snow mix and pockets of black ice. - Next Week: Cooler, active pattern with snow levels to most valleys floors beginning late Tuesday onward. Moderate winter road impact potential. A pattern change continues tonight as southwest flow delivers light to occasionally moderate precipitation, beginning across northwest Montana and gradually expanding southward Saturday into Sunday. While precipitation will be terrain-focused, expect spillover into the valleys. The highest probability for light valley snow accumulations remains in Northwest Montana during overnight periods, with a rain/snow mix likely for other lower- elevation valleys. Although forecast valley road temperatures do not currently support widespread icing, pockets of slick conditions are possible during overnight/morning period, particularly along US-2 and I-90 west of Missoula. 48-hour snowfall totals for the passes (Saturday- Sunday) are forecast in the 3 to 8 inch range; however, snowfall rates should remain manageable, generally capped at 1 to 2 inches per 6-hour period. Given the light snow intensities, winter weather advisories have not been issued but may need to be considered for Lookout and Marias passes on Saturday night as the environment will be more convective. Regardless, plan for occasional snow covered roads going over passes such as Marias, Lookout, and Lolo mainly overnight/morning periods. Transient ridging will provide a brief precipitation lull on Monday. Active weather quickly returns Tuesday as an upper trough off the West Coast re-energizes with northern jet stream energy. This setup presents a favorable signal for accumulating snow: - Northwest Montana Valleys: 50th percentile amounts in the 1-2 inch range. - Pass Level Elevations (4500 feet and above): 50th percentile amounts in the 2-6 inch range. Of particular interest, is a signal for modified Arctic air infiltrating northwest Montana on Tuesday. If this colder air mass deepens more than currently forecast, snowfall ratios and totals could be locally enhanced. West to northwest flow maintains an unsettled pattern Wednesday through next Saturday (Feb 21), with snow levels pinned to valley floors. Model blends indicate a 30-40% probability of a more significant modified Arctic intrusion into western Montana by late next week (Friday/Saturday). This would increase snow impacts, if it comes together but once again only low to moderate confidence. At a minimum, expect moderate winter driving conditions on passes, potentially in the valleys with room for more impactful stretches depending on the strength of the Arctic front. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail through this evening. Mid-level clouds are expected to increase and gradually lower tonight, leading to widespread mountain obscurations by Saturday morning. Periods of light to occasionally moderate precipitation will develop, initially focusing on terrain north of I-90 tonight before expanding southward on Saturday. While showers may pass over lower valleys, terminals are expected to remain predominantly VFR with ceilings staying above critical thresholds. KGPI may see a light wintry mix early Saturday leading to icy patches depending on runway surface temperatures. Surface winds will shift to the southwest and strengthen on Saturday, with vertical mixing supporting gusts of 15-20 kts at valley locations. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

490 FXUS65 KBOI 132129 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 229 PM MST Fri Feb 13 2026 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night...A flat short wave trough in southwest flow aloft will bring light rain to the northern 25% of our CWA Saturday and Saturday evening. The moist band will shift northward as a warm front Saturday night through Sunday night as the flow aloft becomes more southerly ahead of a Pacific upper low nearing the California coast. Our CWA will therefore become gradually warmer through Sunday night. A cold front ahead of the Pacific low will approach our Oregon zones early Monday morning. .LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...The pattern turns active to start off this coming week, with attention being drawn to Monday night into Tuesday. Confidence continues to be high that as the low off the coast of California fills in and rejoins the main flow, another low digging down the coast will help sling it over our area. Ensemble guidance remains consistent across multiple runs and multiple ensemble suites, highlighting Monday 5pm MST through Tuesday 11am MST as having the heaviest precipitation as it fills in from south to north. Precipitation chances will rapidly increase through the day Monday, reaching 50-95% by Monday night (highest over the mountains). With southerly flow aloft, temperatures on Monday will be 10-15 degrees above normal. As would be expected, snow levels will also start off elevated at 4.5-6kft MSL Monday afternoon and evening. The current forecast is carrying generally 1-5 inches of snow in mountain valleys above 4kft MSL, and 6-12 inches of snow above 6kft MSL (locally higher along peaks) over the course of 5pm MST Monday though 5pm MST Tuesday. This could lead to hazardous travel conditions on mountain routes, especially along passes with winds gusting up to 30 mph across higher terrain. In terms of liquid precip over that same time period, lower valley locations will generally see between 0.10-0.25 inches of rain. Beyond Tuesday morning, Precipitation chances will remain elevated as the the second low (the one that dug down and slung the first one into us) makes its way onshore. This will aid in dropping our temps, and our snow levels, for the rest of the week. By Wednesday, temperatures across the area will be leaning a little below normal; Snow levels will be down to 1.5-2.5kft MSL (A.K.A. valley floors). Temperatures and snow levels will hover there through the rest of the week. While precipitation wont be as significant as the event that started the week, showers will continue as this trough moves in. Strong ridging in the eastern Pacific (above the 90th percentile 500mb heights for this time of year), extending up to the Aleutian Islands, will continue to keep our area in cool northwesterly flow aloft. This pattern will not only keep us cool, but direct the storm track our way. Come Thursday/Friday, some deterministic guidance is hinting at a shortwave riding down the coast of British Columbia. There is also evidence of this shortwave in the grand ensemble. This would allow it to tap into Pacific moisture while maintaining a cold continental airmass. While this is still a week or so out, so details are subject to change, this would be a favorable setup for another round of mountain (and even valley) snow. As it stands now, the chance of seeing measurable snowfall in the Snake Basin between Wednesday 5pm MST and Friday 5pm MST, range from 50-70%. The chances of one inch of snow in that same time frame range from 10-35%, highest near the western Magic Valley and between Boise and Mountain Home. && .AVIATION...Localized MFR/IFR ceilings in low stratus. Low stratus continuing to dissipate under increasing high clouds. Otherwise VFR. Increasing showers north of a KBNO-KONO-KSNT line after Sat/11z. VFR/MVFR in rain, MVFR/LIFR in snow. Mtns obscured. Snow levels: 4- 5.5 kft MSL. Surface winds: E-SE 8-12 kt with localized gusts to 20 kt overnight in the Snake Plain, variable up to 10 kt elsewhere. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-SW 5-20 kt. KBOI...VFR under increasing high clouds. Surface winds: SE 6-10 kt this afternoon. Increasing to SE 8-12 kt overnight. Weekend Outlook...Areas of fog/low stratus Saturday night into Sunday morning, otherwise VFR outside of precip. Surface winds: E-S 5-15 kt Saturday, SW-SE 5-15 kt Sunday. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....NF AVIATION.....NF

603 FXUS65 KLKN 132027 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1227 PM PST Fri Feb 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1024 AM PST Fri Feb 13 2026 * Warming trend continues for Saturday * Strong southerly winds gusts in Central Nevada Monday afternoon, lasting through the evening * A series of storm systems will impact Northern and Central Nevada early next week * Turning colder Monday and Tuesday && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Friday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Skies are mostly sunny across the western sections of the forecast area this afternoon, while low clouds persist in the eastern half. Some low level drying is noted as well as lifting ceilings and improving visibilities in the east. This trend will continue through the late afternoon hours. Look for heights to slowly increase tonight into Saturday as shortwave ridging begins to build from the west. Skies are expected to scatter out tonight with overnight lows in the teens and 20s. Winds will remain light. The ridge axis will be moving off to the east for Saturday. Skies are expected to be mostly sunny tomorrow with warming temperatures in the 50s. These readings will be above normal for this time of year. Some afternoon gustiness is also expected with speeds in the 20s mph range. No precipitation is expected. Another quiet night is anticipated for the overnight on Saturday with lows in the 20s and 30s. An upper level trough will be entering the eastern Pacific and encroaching upon the western United States on Sunday. A warm southwesterly flow will continue over northern and central Nevada and afternoon highs will reflect this. Readings will again be above normal for this time of year with highs in the 50s. Skies are expected to remain partly to mostly sunny with periods of high clouds. Winds will continue to remain breezy in central Nevada with gusts of 25 to 35 mph. Clouds will be lowering through the overnight Sunday with light showers developing in far northwestern Humboldt county by Monday morning. Overnight lows will be in the 20s and 30s. On Monday, a strengthening upper low will be pushing into the Pacific Northwest States. This will send impulses through the flow through roughly mid-week or longer. One such impulse will be hitting California Monday, pushing moisture across the Sierra- Nevada mountains and into northern and central Nevada. Snow levels will be around 5000 to 6000 feet in central Nevada with slightly higher heights in northern Nevada. Highs will be in the 30s and 40s in central Nevada and 40s and 50s in northern Nevada. Winds in central Nevada will be windy in the afternoon with gusts to 50 mph possible. A wind advisory for the central zones may be needed. Winds in the north do not appear to be strong enough for headlines but this will need to Tye watched. Look for shower activity to continue into the overnight with lows in the 20s and 30s. Tuesday and Wednesday, main upper trough will be spinning off the western coast of the United States with southwest flow continuing over the forecast area. CAPE values of 100-200J/kg are forecast across central Nevada with negative lifted indices, so the potential exists for localized convective snow bands over the central areas. This has the potential to bring higher snow rates and snow accumulations as well. Winds are forecast to be breezy once again, which will lead to blowing and drifting snow. Winter weather headlines may be needed for portions of the forecast area as a result. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will be below normal for a change with readings in the 30s and 40s. Overnight lows will be in the teens and 20s. Thursday and Friday, a longwave trough will be hanging around the area which will lead to isolated to scattered showers and cooler than normal with readings only in the 30s for highs and lows in the teens. Overall snow totals for this system are forecast to be around one to five inches across the northern Nevada valleys and three to seven inches in the central Nevada valleys, though higher amounts are possible. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Forecast confidence is high in warm temperatures this weekend. Confidence is increasing to for active weather beginning Monday with cooling temperatures and rain/snow showers. Snow and precipitation amounts stand at low confidence due to strength and timing of features noted in the flow at this time. Moderate confidence exists in strong winds Monday afternoon. Slight changes were made to adjust NBM wind forecast up as a result. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected to continue through the next 24 hours at all sites. Look for breezy winds across central Nevada Saturday with S10-20G25-30KT at KELY and KTPH terminals beginning around 18Z. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...86