722 FXUS66 KSEW 051632 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 932 AM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Seasonal temperatures continue today but a warming trend will follow into early next week as an upper ridge strengthens over western Washington. The ridge will weaken and onshore flow will increase for a cooling trend in the second half of next week. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...No updates planned to the forecast this morning. Morning clouds will clear away then one more seasonably mild day before temperatures rise through the early part of the coming week. Previous discussion follows with update to aviation portion. An upper trough is pushing east of W WA, positioning itself over the Inland Northwest this morning. In its wake, increased onshore flow is introducing more cloud coverage to start the day. Stratus will gradually burn off into the afternoon, but some high clouds may continue to drape the sky. Highs today very similar to the day prior, with temperatures forecast to top out in the lower to mid 70s and 60s along the coast. Overnight lows will bottom into the mid 40s to lower 50s. Modest warming on tap for Sunday as flow aloft becomes somewhat zonal. Temperatures won`t stray too far from average, remaining generally in the mid to upper 70s but locations in the SW interior and Cascade valleys may top out around 80 F. On Monday, 80s will become more widespread as upper-level heights rise in response to stout ridging over the SW. High temperatures will get back into the lower to mid 80s from the Seattle area southward. .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...The warm spell looks to peak on Tuesday. Models have upper-ridging becoming a bit more pronounced as lower to mid 80s continue with upper 80s in the cards for valley locations. Moderate HeatRisk could be of concern on Tuesday. The ridge will then flatten on Wednesday as a deep trough traverses across northern BC. Its influence will be felt here as flow aloft becomes more zonal with increasing onshore flow. Models are indicating similar conditions in store through Friday. The ongoing theme of typically dry conditions for July continues. McMillian && .AVIATION...Westerly flow aloft will continue through the TAF period as an upper trough over the region moves off to the east and another approaches the coast of northern California. Onshore flow will continue in the low levels. Conditions are VFR across the majority of the area terminals this morning, except localized MVFR in stratus along the coast and South Sound. Stratus will scatter by 18Z for a return to more widespread VFR conditions, but high clouds will continue to stream across the area throughout the day. Westerly winds will increase across KCLM and through Whidbey Island again late this afternoon into this evening, while winds across the central and south Sound, persisting at 4-8 kt today, are expected to transition from southwesterly to northerly by this evening. KSEA...A mix between MVFR/VFR with high clouds streaming overhead. Any lingering stratus at the terminal will scatter by 18Z for a return to VFR conditions through the remainder of the evening. Southwesterly surface winds will persist at 4-8 kt today before shifting to the northwest late this afternoon and into this evening and increasing to 8-12 kts. 14/Mazurkiewicz && .MARINE...High pressure will remain over the coastal waters through the weekend and strengthen into early next week. Meanwhile, diurnal westerly pushes will continue over the next several evenings. Winds tonight have already started to ease across the central and eastern Strait and will continue to do so through the early morning hours. The next push tonight will not be as strong, however expect winds to reach Small Craft Advisory strength. A weak front may approach the area waters around midweek. Seas over the coastal waters will generally hover between 3-6 ft over the next several days, though look to become steep at times with persistent northerly winds over the coastal waters. 14 && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Gale Warning until 5 AM PDT early this morning for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Sunday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. && $$

045 FXUS66 KPQR 051813 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Portland OR 1113 AM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025 Updated Aviation... .SYNOPSIS...High pressure builds through the next week with general onshore flow. Increasing temperatures through Tuesday with low elevation inland temperatures near 90 degrees F on Monday and Tuesday. Cooler on Wednesday and Thursday before heating back up on Friday. Breezy onshore winds on Wednesday due to an increasing pressure/temperature gradient. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Tuesday...The shortwave troughs that brought cooler weather the last two days have exited the region and high pressure builds through early next week. A low aloft will park over northern California through Monday which will contribute to the amplification of the ridge. Each day temperatures will rise by a few degrees, except along the coast where temperatures will be moderated. Because the flow will be onshore, humidity is not expected to drop considerably. On Monday, winds aloft will transition to the northeast. This switch will usher in warmer and drier air. 850 mb temperatures, which will mix down, will be around 15-18 deg C. Even at night these temperatures will be elevated so overnight relief will be less, especially in the Greater Portland/Vancouver Metro and Columbia River Gorge. On Tuesday, this ridge will reach it`s peak intensity as the low aloft shifts over the OR/CA border. Winds will slowly shift back to the northwest and increase slightly. On both Monday and Tuesday Moderate HeatRisk is present within the Willamette Valley, Clark County lowlands and the Gorge. Those sensitive to heat should take precautions. -Muessle .LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Friday...Transitioning into Wednesday, the low will continue to trek eastward into Idaho. This will result in increasing northwesterly flow and bring in cooler, moister air. There continues to be shifts from model run to model run trending a bit cooler each day on Wednesday and Thursday. Overall, looking at the upper level of seasonable temperatures with onshore flow on Wednesday and Thursday. Late Thursday, a developing ridge will shift eastward increasing north to northeasterly flow and once again, warmer temperatures. Confidence at this point is low though due to a) a mixed bag of clustered max temperatures with a near 50/50 chance of above or the multi-model mean, and b) yet another newly forming shortwave trough aloft moving over northern California. If this pattern does manifest, could easily a rinse and repeat temperature forecast of Tuesday`s highs.-Muessle && .AVIATION...Visible satellite reveals mostly clear skies across the area as of 18z Sat, save for a shrinking patch of marine stratus along the north OR and south WA coastline. Expect KAST improve to VFR by 20z at the latest as remaining cloud cover erodes. Marine stratus looks to return to the coast 04-08z Sun, bringing MVFR cigs to KAST and IFR stratus/fog to KONP through 15z-18z Sun morning. Stratus should mostly stay confined to coastal areas tonight, with inland terminals remaining VFR through the period. Winds will increase out of the north-northwest this afternoon to around 10 kt at most sites, with a few gusts in the 15-20 kt range before winds diminish after 06z Sun. PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions expected under mostly clear skies through the TAF period. NW winds increase to around 10 kt with gusts to 15-18kt after 21z Sat, diminishing to around 5 kt after 06z Sun. Models depict a ~10% chance for MVFR stratus 12-16z Sun. /CB && .MARINE...Surface high pressure offshore will maintain north to northwest winds across the coastal waters through midweek. The pressure gradient over the waters will increase today into Sunday and Monday as the thermal trough strengthens over the south Oregon coast, bringing stronger northerly winds with diurnal gusts up to 20-25 kt each afternoon and evening. Seas will remain fairly steady at around 3-6 ft through Sunday, building slightly to 4-8 ft Sunday night through Monday. -DH/Picard && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

030 FXUS66 KMFR 051723 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1022 AM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025 .DISCUSSION... Not a lot to talk about this morning as some fog made it into the smaller river valleys. The Marble Complex in western Siskiyou County is putting out a little smoke this morning observable on satellite, but we`re not observing a lot of haze overhead. The weather will remain quiet into the afternoon as a trough departs the area. Another cut off low should approach the northern California coast this afternoon. Read the previous discussion below for more information on the upcoming weather. -Smith && .AVIATION...05/18Z TAFs...All areas are VFR currently, except for a small sliver of coastal IFR stratus near Brookings (even there it should break out in the next couple of hours). Expect VFR to prevail elsewhere through late this afternoon with gusty north winds developing along the coast (up to around 30 kt at North Bend). Over the interior, breezes won`t be as strong, but still around 20 kt in some places. A shallower marine layer tonight into Sunday morning along with a slight veering of the winds to northeast will result in a lesser coverage of stratus, but LIFR where it does form (esp, North Bend). -Spilde && .MARINE...Updated 800 AM PDT Saturday, July 5, 2025...Conditions are quiet now, although winds will increase into this afternoon as the thermal trough rebuilds. Winds and seas will be hazardous to smaller crafts south of Cape Blanco this afternoon. These hazardous conditions will then expand northward with steep seas across the waters by Sunday evening. However, gales are anticipated south of Port Orford by Sunday evening through Monday. Conditions improve slightly by Monday evening. -Smith && .FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM PDT Friday, July 4, 2025... For the remainder of the holiday weekend, more typical summer conditions will return in terms of temperatures and humidities. The persistent thunderstorm pattern finally shifts eastward, and thunderstorms drop out of the forecast for the rest of the weekend. Temperatures will trend warmer Saturday into early next week, and daytime humidities will trend lower. Temperatures look to peak on Monday and Tuesday when high temperatures reach into the mid to upper 90s and maybe even the triple digit mark for some West Side and NorCal valleys. Temperatures trend slightly cooler from mid-week onward, but still remain above normal through the end of the week. Meanwhile, confidence is increasing in yet another low pressure redeveloping offshore of California on Sunday and persisting through around mid-week. There have differences in exact location and trajectory of this low, which leads to low confidence in details regarding timing and location of thunderstorm chances. However, considering models have been consistent in at least showing the presence of this feature, confidence is growing in thunderstorm chances returning to the region for the early part of next week. The deep southerly moisture flow will be cut off during our break this weekend, so it`s possible that this next pattern would have less thunderstorm coverage compared to what we have seen over the past week. We`ve introduced a 10-15% chance of thunderstorms for parts of the East Side and Siskiyou County, but we anticipate changes to this forecast over the next day or so as models become more consistent in resolving this feature. At this time, it looks like thunderstorms could arrive as early as Monday and linger into Wednesday. Stay tuned for updates. Otherwise, the forecast will be for continued near to slightly above normal temperatures, seasonal humidities, and the typical diurnal wind patterns, although general east flow late this weekend into early next week could lead to drying, especially across the ridgelines, where poor to moderate recoveries are possible. /BR-y && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 655 AM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025/ DISCUSSION...A stable air mass will be in place for the rest of the weekend, while a warming trend begins. Above normal inland temperatures and seasonably breezy winds are expected through the week. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms return to the area Monday through Wednesday with isolated coverage most likely during at least the first two of those days. Coastal stratus is already beginning to erode, and night and morning coverage will be a bit more sparse tonight through Tuesday. The next marine push for the coast and coastal valleys looks to be Tuesday night into Thursday morning, possibly deep enough for stratus to briefly reach Roseburg during early Thursday morning. Near normal temperatures today will then rise to several degrees above normal for Sunday, with a peak of this warming trend to follow on Monday with readings from the lower 90s to lower 100s expected in valleys. Yesterday`s trough is tracking toward the Rockies, with ridging today into Sunday as the next trough moves southward. It will make it to around offshore of San Francisco this weekend and close off, before meandering back northward toward Cape Mendocino Monday and Tuesday. Agreement has improved that it will then track across far northern California on Wednesday. As a result, coverage of showers and thunderstorms looks to trend a little greater each of the three days, particularly for Wednesday. Slight differences in the track will affect the location of storms. The forecast reflects a consensus of the 00Z data with a slight chance mention included for the southern Oregon Cascades of eastern Jackson and western Klamath counties. Meantime, the recently arrived 06Z GFS and 09Z SREF shift the focus to Siskiyou County, possibly tracking into Jackson County later Monday evening, with a secondary lobe of energy from Klamath into northern Lake counties. Meantime, a more consistent picture is developing for isolated thunderstorms to occur in the Chemult to Fort Rock area of northeastern Klamath and northwestern Lake counties on Tuesday afternoon/evening. A higher probability over a broader area of the northern portion of south central Oregon is forecast for Wednesday afternoon/evening with shortwaves rotating around the inland moving trough. The 06Z data has slowed the speed of the trough passage just enough to suggest Siskiyou County and southeast Klamath County may need to be added to the region with at least a slight chance of storms. The approach of the trough on Tuesday and passage of the trough on Wednesday should bring a few degrees of cooling of high temperatures for each day. Model differences increase beyond Wednesday, but there is general agreement that we will be in a post-trough, stable environment on Thursday. The shift to a northwest or north flow aloft should bring another degree or two of cooling for Thursday. High temperatures are likely to rebound at least somewhat higher on Friday, though models do not yet agree on whether that is due to stronger ridging or the introduction of southerly flow and weak instability from the next Pacific trough. The strength and track of this trough has wide disparity between the models but is likely to have at least some effect on our weather next weekend, even if it hasn`t already begun to influence things on Friday. Simply too soon to be too definitive about day 7. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM PDT Monday for PZZ350-370. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376. Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for PZZ356- 376. && $$

971 FXUS66 KEKA 050702 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 1202 AM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will generally trend warmer through Monday. Slight chance for interior thunderstorms early next week. Much warmer temperatures possible late next week. && .DISCUSSION...Weak high pressure has started to build back in as an upper-level low moves to the east. Mild temperatures are expected to warm back up into the mid to high 80s for most interior valleys. The deep marine layer will continue to keep the near coastal areas cooler, but still high temperatures will increase at least a few degrees. Additional warming is expected Sunday with highs in the 90s in most areas. Additional warming is expected Monday, but the marine layer may start to return and be more persistent along the coast as an upper level low starts to approach the area. The upper level low approaching the coast brings a very slight chance (5% or higher) of thunderstorms Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday afternoons. So far the highest chances are in the northern portions of the area, including interior Del Norte and northern Trinity. Instability and available moisture both look meager as of now, but subtle shifts in the low could change this considerably and this will need to be watched. Thursday and Friday high pressure strengthens over the area and most inland valleys are expected to see high temperatures near or slightly above the 100 degree marks. NBM is showing an over 80% chance for the valleys of Trinity and Humboldt to see triple digits, while interior Mendocino and Lake is seeing around 50-60% chances. This will bring the potential for Moderate to locally Major HeatRisk. JB/MKK && .AVIATION...Overcast skies continue as ceilings gradually come down below the 2000 to 3000 ft heights that lingered most of the day. Otherwise, WNW flow will continue through the evening with gusts easing to around 3 knots out of the northeast at KACV. Light northerly winds at KCEC with an easterly component overnight into Saturday morning. Stratus expected to redevelop along the coast with IFR to LIFR ceilings and low viz overnight. Hi-res models indicate potential for light mist or drizzle around Humboldt Bay by sunrise Saturday (20 to 50%). && .MARINE...Northerlies are expected to strengthen again late Saturday into early next week as high pressure builds back into the region, with gusts 20 to 30 knots developing in the outer waters late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Models have consistently shown winds strengthening to near gale with gale gusts Sunday afternoon into Monday (NBM 50 to 70% chance) in the northern outer waters. There still exists some model spread in potential coverage spreading further south into Z475. Steep and hazardous wind waves 9 to 12 feet are forecast to develop in response to these winds, potentially propagating into the northern inner waters briefly. && .FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures are forecast to warm over the weekend into early next week while minimum RH`s become drier. Overnight recoveries are generally expected to remain good except for a few exposed ridges where low RH`s may persist through the night. An upper level low is expected to approach the area Monday and this poses a low risk for convection. At this point it looks like the better chances for thunderstorms will be north of the area, but this will need to be watched as it gets closer. The upper level low is forecast to finally eject N-NE by mid next week as a massive ridge over the four corners region expands over the area. Much hotter temperatures and drier humidity are highly probable (80% chance) in the interior late next week. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 3 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ455. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Saturday to 3 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ470. Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for PZZ470. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

007 FXUS66 KMTR 051729 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1029 AM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 320 AM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025 - Temperatures remain below seasonal averages into early next week. - Gradual pattern change bringing warming trend for second half of next week begins Wednesday. - Marine layer increases and expands farther inland for end of the weekend, beginning of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1007 AM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025 Made a small tweak to the forecast this morning to account for the eroding stratus. Guidance shows it potentially lingering along the San Mateo and San Francisco coasts and perhaps the Monterey Peninsula area today, with mainly sunny skies expected elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 320 AM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025 (Today and tonight) A weak upper level disturbance has begun to split off from the northern jet across the Pacific Northwest and will gradually develop into a cut-off low later tonight, and settle off the Central Coast by early Sunday morning. Dry air just above the marine layer continues to make the coastal stratus cloud cover forecast difficult. A sliver of low stratus can be seen at this hour (3AM PDT) building south from the Bay Area toward the San Lucia coastal range, bypassing the Monterey Bay at the moment. Expect stratus to remain mostly confined to coastal locations where it does develop with little inland intrusion. Todays temperatures will continue to be on the cool side with bright sunshine inland and slacking wind compared to previous couple days. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 320 AM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025 (Sunday through Friday) A cut off upper level low will stall off the California Central Coast over the next few days. As the weak upper system slowly meanders offshore we should see an improved fetch of moisture above the marine layer up to approx 500mb, resulting in an expanding marine layer that will penetrate farther inland as we head into the beginning of next week. Early morning drizzle and fog may also be more widespread for the beginning of next week. By Wednesday the stalled upper low begins to make progress inland. Considerable uncertainty remains in the forecast for a potential warm up late next week, however expect temperatures by the end of next week into next weekend to at least rebound closer to normal, with eyes on some potential moderate heat risk if the synoptic pattern supports longer residence time of ridging aloft over our region late in the extended forecast. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1026 AM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025 IFR to MVFR at MRY and HAF this morning with the greatest likelihood to scatter out at MRY. HAF may maintain ceilings through the TAF period. Onshore winds increase again this afternoon with high confidence for IFR to MVFR ceilings returning late tonight across the Monterey Bay terminals as the marine layer deepens. Moderate to high confidence for MVFR ceilings to develop around the Bay Area terminals early Sunday morning and persist through about 17Z-18Z Sunday. Onshore winds increase again Sunday afternoon, however and forecast to be weaker than previous days. Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Onshore winds will increase this afternoon with gusts to around 25 kt. Moderate to high confidence for MVFR (potentially lowering to IFR) Sunday morning. Low clouds will scatter out by around 17Z-18Z Sunday with onshore winds once again increasing by Sunday afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR. Onshore winds will increase slightly this afternoon before easing after sunset. High confidence for IFR/MVFR ceilings to develop around the terminals late this evening and potentially lowering to LIFR early Sunday morning. && .MARINE... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 1026 AM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025 Moderate seas and a fresh to strong northwesterly breeze will continue through the remainder of the weekend. Winds will diminish late Sunday into Monday with a moderate breeze to continue through late next week. Occasional gale force gusts are possible along the Big Sur coastline Saturday afternoon. Winds increase and significant wave heights build beginning late next week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ UPDATE...KR SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...RGass MARINE...RGass Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

481 FXUS66 KOTX 051725 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1025 AM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Morning showers over Eastern Washington and North Idaho on Saturday. - Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms along the Canadian border Saturday afternoon. - Hot temperatures arrive Monday and continue into at least Wednesday. - Increased winds and elevated fire weather conditions Wednesday. && .SYNOPSIS... Showers and clouds will slowly dissipate Saturday morning with clear to partly cloudy skies in the afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms redevelop near the Canadian border Saturday afternoon. Warming and drying trend Monday through Wednesday. Increasing winds late Tuesday into Wednesday to bring increased fire weather concerns. && .DISCUSSION... Today-tonight: A midlevel low will track east out of the Inland NW today. Morning showers over North Idaho and far Eastern WA will dissipate around midday with areas of sunshine returning in the afternoon. A secondary wave sweeping across central BC will provide a renewed area of lift, interacting with (100-500 K/kg) SBCAPE along the Canadian border resulting in redeveloping showers and t-storms. A bulk of the CAPE will be centered below -10C which leads to low confidence for lightning and HREF calibrated lightning probabilities are in the range of 10-20% across northern Okanogan, Ferry, Stevens, Pend Oreille, and Boundary county. Cells in northern Okanogan/Ferry County would likely be early afternoon then mainly late afternoon/early evening threat for points eastward. Cells that do develop will track to the east and northeast back into Canada around 15-20 mph. For Central WA and much of the Columbia Basin, the main story will be breezy west to southwest winds gusting 15 to 20 mph coupled with dry conditions and an abundance of sunshine. Winds through the Cascade river valleys and on to the Waterville Plateau will increase further by the evening with west to northwest wind gusts near 30 mph. Clear skies return region- wide Saturday night with winds decreasing hour by hour, becoming light and under 10 mph prior to sunrise on Sunday. Sunday - Wednesday: Zonal flow on Sunday will give way to height rises for early next week with high confidence for another warming and drying trend. National Blend of Model forecast high temperatures have come down a few degrees, especially for Wednesday but still remain very warm with temperatures returning to the mid 90s to low 100s by Tuesday. Heat risk indicators ramp up from minor heat risk Sunday into moderate heat risk Monday and moderate to major heat risk Tuesday. Needless to say, folks should prepare now for another bout of summer heat. As for fire weather concerns, the combination of heat and lower atmosphere unstable conditions will lead to elevated fire weather conditions for Sunday and Monday with little to no concerns for significant wind impacts. Concerns increase going into Tuesday and Wednesday as the next trough approaches and begins to break down the heat. There are several variations in the ensemble packages how this will transpire which will have major ramifications on timing of winds and alignment with the driest humidities. General consensus with ensemble means are for gap winds to begin to bleed through starting on Tuesday, most likely late in the day or evening. By Wednesday, 75% of the ensembles support a more pronounced flattening of the ridge. This will need to be monitored very closely as pattern recognition indicates the potential for a critical fire weather day. Looking into some of the finer details from the European Ensembles, all but 2 of 50 ENS members have gusts of 30 mph or stronger at Wenatchee AP and 25-30 mph for locations like Moses Lake, Spokane, and Pullman. GEFS is not as strong at this time and this is reflected in the hot, dry, windy plots that range from the values of 500 to 100 or 95th percentile to 25th percentile. All things considered, Wednesday will be a day to watch very closely in the coming days! Thursday into next weekend: Details for late week heading into the weekend are uncertain as models suggest a progressive pattern with periods of ridging and troughs. General consensus is for a dip in the temperatures around Thursday then warming back up for 1-3 days before another dip however timing the waves and depths is proving very challenging and resulting in large spreads in the temperatures by as much as 10 to 15 degrees. Projected highs vary anywhere from the low 80s to low 100s. While some ensembles indicate ribbons of moisture at times, its hard to excited for any appreciable precipitation and moisture this time. As each warming period breaks down, it is likely that there will be periods of winds so overall, looks like we will remain in elevated fire weather conditions and continue to increase fire danger indices until there is evidence otherwise. /sb && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS: The showers we saw overnight from moisture wrapping around a broad low pressure system are beginning to dissipate. Cigs are generally around 6-8k ft AGL with few-sct coverage as low as 2.5k ft AGL. Areas near the Canadian border will see a renewed threat for convective showers and small threat for thunderstorms (20%) between 21-03z. Light winds are expected regionwide through the TAF period with infrequent afternoon gusts of 15-20 kts. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions through the period with the exception of PUW for which MVFR ceilings may linger for the next hour or two. Main threat for convective showers and isolated t-storms this afternoon will be from Oroville to Bonners Ferry. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 80 56 85 56 92 60 / 40 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 76 55 85 56 90 60 / 60 10 0 0 0 0 Pullman 76 49 82 51 89 57 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 85 60 91 61 98 65 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 79 47 85 48 90 51 / 40 10 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 72 51 81 49 88 55 / 70 10 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 72 57 80 58 87 63 / 50 10 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 87 55 90 57 95 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 87 60 90 63 95 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 86 56 89 58 95 60 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

091 FXUS66 KPDT 051701 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1001 AM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025 .AVIATION DISCUSSION...18Z...VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period with mostly clear skies. Winds will be elevated at DLS with 32015g25kt through 04Z then decreasing to 12kts and under. All other sites will be 10kts or less. Bennese/90 && PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 201 PM PDT Fri Jul 4 2025/ SHORT TERM...This afternoon through Sunday...An upper-level low- pressure system is moving onshore into western Oregon this afternoon, inducing widespread cloudiness and precipitation over the forecast area. The first of two shortwaves embedded within the broader low is continuing to move inland across eastern Oregon, western Idaho, and southeast Washington. Activity with this wave has developed into a weak deformation band and is suppressing afternoon temperatures. Meanwhile, clearing across central Oregon and the Ochoco-John Day Highlands early afternoon has facilitated modest (250-500 J/kg) surface-based CAPE. The second shortwave is moving into southwest Oregon and is progged to propagate in inland over south-central and eastern Oregon through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. Coupled with falling heights aloft as the main upper low moves overhead, this should aid additional thunderstorm development primarily for Deschutes, Crook, Wheeler, and Grant counties. Of note, 12Z HREF neighborhood probabilities are highlighting up to a 70% chance of 3-hr precipitation exceeding 1 inch over last year`s burn scars in the Ochoco-John Day Highlands. The main burn scars of concern include those associated with the Wiley Flat, Rail Ridge, Crazy Creek, and Falls fires. After collaboration with BOI, have issued a Flash Flood Watch for the aforementioned burn scars, valid through 8PM PDT. Quieter weather will return Saturday and Sunday as the low exits to the east and drier zonal flow aloft moves overhead. Plunkett/86 LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday...Confidence is increasing in warm to hot weather Monday through Thursday as an upper-level ridge of high pressure builds over the Pacific Northwest. That said, ensemble clusters do depict some differences in the 500-hPa height field over the region, most notably the evolution of a closed low that all clusters show off the NW California coast Monday. Ensemble mean 500-hPa heights and vorticity show the aforementioned low tracking inland across southern Oregon and the northern Great Basin late Tuesday through Wednesday. Farther north across southern BC, roughly half of ensemble members show a shortwave trough propagating inland, significantly reducing the amplitude of the ridge over the Pacific Northwest. The track and timing of the closed low and shortwave will modulate temperatures as well as shower and thunderstorms chances. Probabilities of showers and thunderstorms are currently too low (<10%) to have in the forecast. Forecast HeatRisk ranges from Moderate (level 2 of 4) on Monday and Wednesday to Major (level 3 of 4) on Tuesday. This level of heat would support Heat Advisories for the Yakima/Kittitas valleys, lower Columbia Basin, and foothills of the northern Blue Mountains on Tuesday. Plunkett/86 FIRE WEATHER...Through this evening, a low-pressure system moving over the Pacific Northwest will facilitate widespread precipitation chances, highest for Oregon. Additionally, a chance of thunderstorms is forecast for central Oregon and the Blue Mountains. Chances of wetting rain through the evening are medium- high (50-80 percent for the Blue Mountains) with low-medium chances (30-60 percent) for the rest of central and eastern Oregon. No Red Flag Warnings have been issued due to the anticipated wetting rain, but frequent cloud-to-ground lightning is expected. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall, small hail, and strong, gusty outflow winds in excess of 60 mph across southeast Deschutes, Crook, and Grant counties this afternoon and evening. Plunkett/86 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 85 55 90 58 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 85 60 90 63 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 88 56 92 58 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 87 56 90 61 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 88 56 93 58 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 85 56 88 59 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 81 45 88 49 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 80 52 87 55 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 81 50 89 55 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 85 56 90 61 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...86 LONG TERM....86 AVIATION...90

940 FXUS65 KREV 050919 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 219 AM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Temperatures will warm to near season averages through the weekend with dry conditions prevailing. * Dry and seasonable weather continues early next week with a potential for gusty winds mid-week. * Heat returns next weekend with near triple digits possible for western Nevada valleys. && .DISCUSSION... Temperatures will steadily warm back to near season averages this weekend with overall dry conditions prevailing. Highs this afternoon will warm into the upper 80s this afternoon before returning to low 90s on Sunday. Sierra valleys will warm to the upper 70s to near 80. Afternoon winds will also trend lighter with only a few afternoon clouds developing along the Sierra. The pattern remains quiet into early next week with temperatures remaining around early July averages with dry conditions and late day zephyrs developing each afternoon. However, we could see an increase to our winds mid-week as a closed low positioned off the central California coast begins to move inland. This low could usher in a pronounced dry slot at mid-levels, yielding very dry conditions with poor humidity recoveries and single digit afternoon RH across western Nevada. This combined with the potential for gusty winds around the Wednesday timeframe could produce elevated fire weather concerns. Otherwise we are looking at another heat up next weekend as high temperatures across western Nevada warm to near triple digits once again beginning Friday with Sierra communities heating into the upper 80s. Dry conditions look to continue through next week with typical afternoon breezy conditions prevailing. Fuentes && .AVIATION... VFR through the weekend with dry conditions, seasonable temperatures, and light afternoon breezes prevailing. Fuentes && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$

376 FXUS66 KSTO 042130 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 230 PM PDT Fri Jul 4 2025 .DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... Dry and breezy with below normal temperatures for the rest of today. There is a small (~10%) chance for the far northern Shasta County mountain thunderstorms this afternoon. Onshore flow will continue to bring cooler, below normal temperatures with locally breezy winds for Saturday, with dry weather. A slow warming trend continues over the weekend into Monday with near normal temperatures. && .KEY MESSAGES... * Friday(Independence Day)- Friday night - Mainly dry, mostly clear with breezy onshore winds and below normal temperatures - Slight (10%) probability of showers and thunderstorms through early evening across the mountains of northern Shasta County * Weekend - Monday: - Quiet, dry weather - Onshore winds will keep temperatures below average Saturday - Winds will be locally breezy at times, strongest through the Delta and over the higher elevations - Slow warming Sunday into Monday, with continued dry conditions * Tuesday - Friday: - Increased onshore flow with below normal temperatures. Temperatures trend up by the end of the week with above normal highs and widespread Moderate HeatRisk by Thursday .Changes from previous forecast... - Cooler, below normal temperatures for Tuesday && .AVIATION... VFR conditions across interior NorCal next 24 hours. Periods of breezy onshore winds with gusts up to 30 knots in the Delta vicinity; gusts up to around 25 knots in northern/central Sacramento Valley, until around 10z Saturday. Gusts up to 35 knots across the peaks of the Sierra next 24 hours. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

202 FXUS65 KMSO 050754 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 154 AM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Below normal temperatures with showers and thunderstorms today - A warming trend starts early next week that will culminate in another extended period of hot, dry weather. A trough and low pressure circulation over the region will bring widespread below-average high temperatures today, about 10 degrees cooler than normal. Widespread rain across northwest Montana will shift to occasional showers and isolated thunderstorms across most of north-central Idaho and western Montana by this afternoon. Showers are expected to taper off quickly during the evening. Northwesterly flow will return Sunday, bringing temperatures back to near-normal levels. Most areas should remain storm-free, though some model guidance suggests a shortwave trough may clip northwest Montana, potentially producing showers, especially around Glacier National Park. A ridge of high pressure will rebuild early next week, leading to a warming trend and hot temperatures by Tuesday. Extended models show a weak disturbance flattening the ridge late Wednesday into the latter part of the week. While timing and strength remain uncertain, this feature may bring slightly cooler, but still above-normal, temperatures, increased westerly winds, and a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms to return to the Northern Rockies. && .AVIATION...Patchy morning fog in valleys may reduce visibility at some airfields due to recent rainfall. A trough and low pressure circulation will keep conditions cool today, with highs about 10 degrees below normal. Widespread rain in northwest Montana will obscure terrain through this morning, before tapering to occasional showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon across north-central Idaho and western Montana. Showers should end quickly by this evening. Northwesterly flow returns tonight into Sunday, bringing drier conditions and a return to near-normal temperatures. Expect improving flight conditions by late evening, with most areas remaining storm-free through Sunday, except for a slight chance of isolated showers near Glacier National Park. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

790 FXUS65 KBOI 051548 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 948 AM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025 .DISCUSSION...Seeing mostly clear skies this morning as the upper wave exits into MT. The west-central ID mtns have woken up to some fog, and clouds thanks to yesterday`s precipitation. The fog will burn off by noon, while afternoon instability will continue to feed cloud development. A slight chance of showers and afternoon thunderstorms will be limited to mtns north and east of McCall and Yellow Pine. Otherwise dry a mostly sunny day across the rest of the region with temperatures slightly warmer than yesterday, but still 5-10 degrees below normal. Breezy conditions will develop this afternoon across s-central ID bringing wind gusts to 25 mph. && .AVIATION... KBOI...Generally VFR with some patchy low stratus in mountain valleys mixing out by Sat/18Z. Surface winds: W-NW 5-15 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-NW 10-20 kt. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: NW 8-12 kt becoming variable overnight. Sunday Outlook...VFR with brief periods of IFR due to patchy low clouds in mountain valleys in the morning. Surface winds will be light, mainly NE-NW 5-10 kt. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night...The final piece of the trough that brought the strong to severe thunderstorms yesterday will exit the area to the east this morning. Behind that, we will see mainly zonal flow through Monday morning as a ridge begins to build in from the southeast. Our upper flow will turn a little more SW Monday afternoon into Monday night, and this will increase temperatures notably. Highs today will be around 5 degrees below normal, rise to near normal Sunday, and then get to 5 to 10 degrees above normal Monday. No precipitation is expected for most areas throughout the short term. The only exception is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms today in northeast Valley County. LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...Strong model agreement continues to favor a large ridge building into the area off the four corners region Tuesday and Wednesday, returning higher than normal valley temperatures into the lower 100s on Tuesday and the upper 90s Wednesday. The ridge interacting with a closed upper low off the California coast continues the possibility of steering some monsoonal moisture throughout the week. Wednesday and Thursday will see the low breaking off into a trough that will dig across the area. Guidance uncertainty remains on the potential moisture and precipitation brought by this system. Strong ridging from the four corners region is expected to build back into the area Friday into Saturday. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise DISCUSSION...DG AVIATION.....DG SHORT TERM...SP LONG TERM....JY

676 FXUS65 KLKN 050918 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 218 AM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 155 AM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025 * Warming Trend starts today as high pressure returns. * High temperatures for the start of next week will be in the 90s to 100s while overnight lows will dip into the 50s and 60s. * Upper trough passing through the Pacific NW to bring in slightly cooler temperatures for northern NV Wednesday and Thursday, but heat returns Friday. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Saturday) Issued at 155 AM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025 WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Current synoptic situation depicts upper level ridging over the southern United States/northern Mexico with a weak upper level trough west of California. For today through Tuesday, the upper level ridge is expected to move west, setting up a position across southern Arizona. Meanwhile, the upper trough will close off and maintain a position off the California coast. The weather is expected to remain mostly dry though this time with highs in the 80s to low 90s today but climbing into the upper 80s to mid to upper 90s on Monday and Tuesday. By early next week, highs will be about three to seven degrees above normal. Winds will be breezy each afternoon with gusts to about 20 mph. However, by Monday and Tuesday, winds in the central parts of the forecast area will be a little stronger, with speeds of 30 to 35 mph. Will explain in further details regarding fire weather below in that section. Overnight lows will be in the 40s and 50s through Monday night. The upper ridge is forecast to continue to move to the west and will set up shop over central Arizona, while the upper trough opens and moves northeast. The resulting flow will remain out of the southwest which will keep a drier pattern over northern and central Nevada through Saturday. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s Wednesday but will climb back into the mid to upper 90s Saturday. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence in high pressure ridge building back in over the the Great Basin for the weekend and into the first half of next week leading to warmer temperatures and drier conditions. There is moderate confidence of critical fire weather conditions over central Nevada next Monday and Tuesday afternoon. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) VFR conditions over the next 24 hour period. Winds will be breezy with occasional gusts to 20KT in the afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER...High pressure will begin building over northern and central Nevada through the period. Winds are expected to remain below critical thresholds through the weekend, but by Monday and Tuesday, a passing upper trough may bring wind gusts greater than 30 mph, especially across the central Nevada zones of 425-427. This may warrant fire weather headlines in these areas during this time frame and will need to be watched. Otherwise, minor cooling is expected with this passage with high pressure strengthening for the latter portions of the week with temperatures rising to above normal levels. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...86 FIRE WEATHER...86