213 FXUS66 KSEW 130314 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 814 PM PDT Wed Aug 12 2026 .UPDATE... Mountain showers and thunderstorms have waned this evening through loss of solar forcing. For tonight, mostly dry conditions are expected to take hold. Marine stratus will again march inland into the early morning hours on Thursday. Min temps are forecast to range between the lower to upper 50s. The previous discussion remains below along with an updated aviation section and fire weather discussion: && .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms will continue over the mountains over the next several days under the influence of an upper level trough. Southwest flow aloft will develop over the weekend, bringing some warming ahead of another weak trough at the beginning of next week that will likely bring slightly cooler and unsettled conditions. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... An upper level trough will remain overhead over the next several days as onshore flow continues at the surface, resulting in fairly similar conditions between today and Friday. The marine stratus layer has eroded towards the coast for most inland locations, with enough instability this afternoon to generate showers and thunderstorms over the Olympics and western Cascades. While relative humidities in the mountains remain fairly high as a result of continued onshore flow, fuels are dry enough to cause concern with incoming lightning. The potential for abundant lightning and gusty and erratic outflow winds has resulted in the issuance of a Red Flag Warning through this evening. For more details, see the FIRE WEATHER section below. The region will see another round of low stratus expanding inland tonight, though the stratus layer is not expected to linger too long into the morning Thursday for most inland areas. Continued instability under the influence of the upper level low will maintain chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the Olympics and Cascades, and a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for these areas for Thursday, once again for the potential for abundant lightning and gusty outflow winds. More of the same can be expected on Friday, with morning stratus and chances for showers and thunderstorms over the mountains. Elsewhere across the lowlands, conditions will remain mild with light winds and mostly clear skies through the remainder of the week. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Models remain in good agreement with southwest flow developing aloft over the weekend as a high pressure ridge builds over the southwestern US and a cutoff low drops southward offshore. While temperatures will remain mild, the southwest flow may open the door for moisture to advect into the region, with continued potential for afternoon thunderstorms to develop. By the start of next week, a trough axis is favored to cross western Washington, with slightly cooler temperatures and more widespread chances for light shower activity. However, model solutions start to show a larger spread of solutions beyond the weekend, so conditions into next week remain uncertain. 15 && .AVIATION... Afternoon showers and thunderstorms have waned this evening. Winds have transitioned to the west/northwest around 5-10 kt, and will decrease to 5 kt out of the southwest tonight/Thursday morning. LAMP guidance maintains a 30-40% chance of MVFR in the interior Puget Sound terminals from 12Z-18Z, with a 10-20% chance of IFR. Probabilities for IFR/LIFR increase significantly moving west into the Kitsap, and towards the coast. Additionally, smoke will continue to increase aloft from fires in B.C., but impacts down towards the surface remain minimal. KSEA...VFR through tonight, then a 30-40% chance of MVFR ceilings between 12Z and 18Z Thursday morning (10-20% chance for a drop into IFR). Northwest winds 5-10 kt will decrease to 5 kt this evening, becoming southwest overnight, and northwest again late Thursday morning/afternoon 5-10 kt. HPR/41 && .MARINE... High pressure in the Pacific will begin to weaken by the end of the week and into the weekend as it gets pushed southward with an approaching trough offshore that will slowly move towards land as it splits early next week. Diurnal pushes through the Strait of Juan de Fuca remains the primary impact, although small craft impact potential remains low until Friday afternoon and this weekend. Winds in the coastal waters will decrease going into the weekend as pressure gradients decrease. Seas at 2-4 ft with a brief uptick to 6 ft in the outer coastal waters tonight into Thursday, and early next week. HPR && .FIRE WEATHER... A Red Flag Warning will be allowed to expire this evening for the north Cascades and Olympic Mountains. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the same area plus the southern Cascades for Thursday. Fire weather concerns will remain elevated to critical at times as an upper level trough will remain over the area today through Friday, creating weak instability in the atmosphere. This is bringing onshore flow with higher humidity but also chances of thunderstorms. Area thunderstorm chances have increased for the period, as high as 50-70% over the mountains. Some heavier showers are locally possible with the thunderstorms that, if they last long enough in one place, would put down wetting rains or more. There is a low but non-zero threat of flash flooding and debris flows in burn scars. Fire weather concerns moderate over the weekend. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for East Portion of the Olympic Mountains-West Portion of the Olympic Mountains-West Slopes of the North Cascades Generally above 1500 Feet. Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for East Portion of the Olympic Mountains-West Portion of the Olympic Mountains-West Slopes of the Central Cascades Generally above 1500 Feet-West Slopes of the North Cascades Generally above 1500 Feet. PZ...None. && $$

053 FXUS66 KPQR 122142 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 242 PM PDT Wed Aug 12 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry conditions expected through the weekend with persistent onshore flow. Slight chance (10-15%) for thunderstorms or showers over the Cascades Friday to Saturday afternoon, with the highest chances along the crest. There are low chances for more widespread rain returning early next week, but significant rain does not appear likely at this time. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Tuesday...Satellite imagery and surface observations as of early Wednesday afternoon depicts stratus clouds dissipating across interior valleys. So far, the central and southern Willamette Valley have cleared out, and we are beginning to see the northern Valley and southwest Washington lowlands clearing out as daytime heating progresses. We`re also seeing some cumulus clouds popping up across the Cascades and Coast Range due to increasing instability and moisture from an upper level trough; however, expect to remain dry today. The better moisture for precipitation is further north across the northern half of Washington. Given the widespread cloud cover this morning, temperatures are forecast to peak in the upper 70s across interior valleys and 60s along the coast. Tomorrow (Thursday), models and their ensembles continue to agree on upper level troughing broadening over the Pacific Northwest and maintaining onshore flow as a ridge over the northeast Pacific flattens out and weakens. One nuance is in the mid-levels of the atmosphere (5,000-10,000 ft above ground) tomorrow, where forecast soundings are showing light easterly winds returning, including near the Grasshopper Fire. This could cause some wildfire smoke to drift across portions of northwest Oregon and southwest Washington by Thursday afternoon, mainly causing hazy skies. Can`t rule out some of this smoke mixing down to the surface as well. However, this smoke is expected to be short-lived as winds from the west return Thursday night into Friday morning and push smoke eastward and clear the air once again. Still not expecting precipitation, but some lingering moisture to the north could support a 10-15% chance for thunderstorms across the far northern portions of the south Washington Cascades Thursday afternoon. By Friday through the weekend the aforementioned upper level trough broadens even further off the U.S. West Coast. As more southerly flow aloft returns over the area, will see increasing instability and monsoonal moisture that will support a 10-15% chance for thunderstorms across the Cascades each afternoon from Friday-Saturday, with the highest chances along the crest of the Cascades. Otherwise, the general airmass remains too dry to support any widespread precipitation from this trough. Guidance suggests high confidence for near to slightly above average temperatures for mid-August tomorrow through the weekend, with afternoon highs rebounding into the mid to upper 80s across interior valleys. The question remains whether or not we get widespread rain early next week, but chances for measurable precipitation (>0.01") remains low (15-25%) across the area next Monday and Tuesday. Cluster analysis of 500 mb heights shows a wide range of the magnitudes and placements of the upper level trough offshore, while only 5-10% of ensembles show the potential for any substantial 24-hour rainfall totals above 0.10" across the area. -10/DH && .AVIATION...Through 18Z Thu...Westerly flow aloft continues as an upper level trough moves over the region. Marine stratus has cleared at most inland terminals. Any lingering stratus should clear by 22z Wed. MVFR conditions are being observed along the coast. Lowered flight conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period along the coast with around a 50% chance of brief improvement to VFR/high MVFR in the afternoon hours through 00z Thu. Then there`s a 60-80% chance that IFR/LIFR conditions return along the coast between 02-06z Thu. The marine push will be less strong tonight into Thursday morning, so chances of marine stratus pushing inland during this time is lower with a 25-40% chance of MVFR ceilings at any hour between 10-16z Thu at inland terminals. Any lowered ceilings that do form should improve by 18-21z Thu. North to northwest winds are expected to increase to around 8-10 kt this afternoon, decreasing by 04-08z Thu. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Expect MVFR CIGs to persist through 19-21z Wed, improving to VFR after. Lingering afternoon clouds are expected to gradually lift and scatter out, with predominately VFR conditions likely through the rest of the TAF period. However, there is a 25-40% chance of MVFR CIGS developing again between 10-14z Thu. If these formed, expect improve to VFR conditions again by 18-20z Thu. Northwest winds around 5 kt are expected to increase to 8-10 kt after 23z Wed, decreasing after 06-08z Thu. -03 && .MARINE...No significant changes as high pressure offshore will continue to support northerly winds and fairly benign conditions across the coastal waters through the week and into the weekend. Winds from the north to northwest with gusts less than 21 kts will continue through at least the end of the week. Wind driven seas are expected to remain around 3 to 6 ft through the week. -DH/03 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

327 FXUS66 KMFR 130152 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 652 PM PDT Wed Aug 12 2026 Updated AVIATION section .KEY MESSAGES... * Seasonably warm, dry, and breezy conditions are the overall theme going forward * Thunderstorm chances increase tomorrow continuing through the weekend and perhaps early parts of next week with the main risk being lightning and gusty erratic winds * Areas of smoke remain possible due to nearby wildfires which could bring unhealthy air quality but latest trends show a decrease in smoke && .DISCUSSION... High pressure aloft that has been over the Four Corners Region for several days has started to slide east and southwest over the Gulf of America states. This has allowed a trough to form over the western CONUS. A general trough pattern will remain over the west coast for well into middle parts of next week. Beyond Wednesday the pattern does show inconsistencies with the models out of phase from one another. This has resulted in some uncertainty, especially middle to later parts of next week. This pattern will allow for several days of thunderstorm chances. While uncertainty exists on coverage details due to the isolated nature of these potential storms, the takeaway is that we`re not anticipating these to produce a lot of rain, and lightning is expected to be isolated. DCAPE values are rather high in some model outputs, and this could lead to strong gusty outflows with speeds potentially around 45-55 mph. In fact, some of the stronger storms could potentially produce 60mph winds, but again the isolated nature of these storms makes this forecast difficult. At this time, favored areas are central/western Siskiyou County, east/southeast Modoc County, Lake County, and portions of central to northern Klamath County. Given the isolated nature of these potential storms, we are not anticipated a Red Flag Warning at this time, but if coverage and/or lightning intensity increases we may have to reconsider this. That said, we are in peak fire season, so any lightning over these dry fuels could produce some initial attack starts. Lastly, smoke will be the other factor as the diurnal wind pattern continues to spread areas of smoke across the forecast area. Smoke is very difficult to forecast with uncertainties involved in fire activity/suppression and exactly how much smoke will be introduced into the atmosphere. That said, recent model output is showing a general decrease in smoke over the next couple days which could be due to better fire suppression from better overnight humidity recoveries and the cooler afternoon temperatures. -Guerrero && .AVIATION (00Z TAFs)... Coastal stratus has pushed back in along portions of the coast with IFR conditions near OTH. Those will likely continue through the overnight hours, although there is some clearing that could push in briefly over the next few hours. Otherwise, farther inland VFR conditions will prevail except near the Wrights Spring fire just east of Klamath Falls. There should be some lower visibilities around 6SM around 12Z. Those will eventually clear up as the south westerly winds pick up in the morning hours. -Smith && .MARINE...Updated 230 PM PDT Wednesday, August 12, 2026...Gusty north winds continue through this evening, with areas of gales and very steep seas south of Port Orford and steep seas to the north. Winds will begin to ease Thursday, with north winds at Small Craft Advisory strength south of Port Orford replacing the Gale Warning. In fact, the combination of wind wave and fresh swell will lead to steep seas continuing Thursday through Friday morning. Weak winds and low seas are expected for the weekend and into early next week. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning until 2 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ350. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-370-376. && $$

927 FXUS66 KEKA 122329 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 429 PM PDT Wed Aug 12 2026 .AVIATION 00Z UPDATE...Stratus remains along most of the North Coast as well as most of southern Mendocino coastline leading to IFR/LIFR conditions. Expect northerly winds to shift southerly as fog returns. These overnight, overcast conditions are expected through the mid morning for the coastal areas. Inland areas will experience continued upvalley winds through the afternoon with VFR for the next 24 hours. The marine layer is expected to deepen this evening which could lead to more widespread stratus inland, yet most inland terminals will remain clear. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 329 PM PDT Wed Aug 12 2026/ WHAT HAS CHANGED... Decreased forecast thunderstorm coverage, otherwise no significant changes to the forecast/discussion. KEY MESSAGES... * Warm, near-normal temperatures expected for the interior today. Cooler temperatures are likely late week into the weekend. * Smokey conditions likely from the MP18 Fire, focused in the Trinity River Valley. * Slight chance of interior thunderstorms Thursday into Saturday. * Minor coastal flooding is possible around Humboldt Bay at the midnight high tide tonight. SYNOPSIS...Interior temperatures trend below normal late in the week. Coastal areas continue to have near normal temperatures with overnight stratus clearing in the afternoons along with breezy northwest winds. There is a slight chance for dry thunderstorms in the interior thursday and into Saturday. DISCUSSION...Smoke from the MP 18 fire continues to impact air quality over Northern California, particularly in the interior valleys of Humboldt and Trinity counties. Depending on fire containment, expect a similar pattern to carry through the week. The low level inversion is showing signs of weakening as more of a troughing pattern develops, and this combined with some atmospheric instability will help clear out the smoke more efficiently over the coming afternoons. The troughing will continue to lower interior daytime highs. Temperatures will be lowering to below normals through the extended forecast. The marine layer is deepening and extending farther inland, and will be conducive to producing light drizzle over the coming days. The broad troughing and embedded disturbances will also bring low chances for some showers or perhaps dry thunderstorm activity. A weak surge of monsoon moisture associated with a shortwave disturbance may clip portions of the southern zones Thursday, but even the most aggressive modes keep the bulk of the moisture SE of Lake County at this time. This day will still be watched regarding any dry lightning potential through Trinity County (5-10%), especially if the moisture flux nudges northwest at all. A secondary wave will move NE over Northern California Friday into Saturday morning. This disturbance will carry higher instability and moisture (though still meager), giving a slightly higher chance for some thunderstorm activity. This is mainly expected in Siskiyou County, but could impact portions of surrounding counties (5-10% over Trinty County northward through far eastern Del Norte County, and 10-15% over Siskiyou County and far northeast Del Norte). There would be a potential for nocturnal activity late Friday as well if storms occur at all. That said, this is still a very low confidence forecast; however, it will still be watched very closely due to historical poor model handling of the setup type and the impact even a little lightning would have regarding fire potential over the very dry vegetation. Smoke from the ongoing MP18 fire near Hoopa will likely dampen instability (CAPE) over the afternoon hours. AVIATION...Conditions have only slightly improved as of 20z for the coastal terminals as stratus hangs around. Thanks to eddies and reversed flow near shore, low clouds have been filling back into the terminals. Satellite imagery shows a break in stratus for KCEC which should bring the terminal out of LIFR. Smoke from local wild fires is also visible and trending east, away from the coastal terminals. Both KCEC and KACV have been under LIFR well through the afternoon with ceilings around 400ft or less. Improved visibility at KACV as of 19z could be a sign of flight categories also improving as the marine layer lifts. Model guidance is less optimistic with LIFR conditions lasting well into the early evening. Gusty northerly winds will likely push the marine stratus to scatter out or become broken by 22-23z for KCEC and KACV with ceilings below 1000ft/IFR. KUKI will have prevailing VFR conditions and gusty winds Thursday morning during sunrise hours. /EYS MARINE...Strong northerlies with gale conditions continue in the outer waters. These winds are generated steep and hazardous seas up to 12 ft at 10 to 11 seconds. These larger seas will periodically migrate into the inner waters following the afternoon/evening stronger wind surges. Seas of up to 11 ft have occasionally been observed at the North Spit buoy. Northerly winds will drop below 25kts Thursday afternoon as troughing enters the region. The northerlies will drop more substantially Friday and especially through the weekend as troughing weakens the pressure gradient. FIRE WEATHER...Minimum RH and overnight recoveries will continue to improve with moistening westerly flow and lower daytime highs from the breakdown of the ridge of high pressure. A troughing pattern then takes shape, which will maintain good recoveries and also increases chances for a deepened marine layer to infiltrate farther into the interior. A weak surge of monsoon moisture associated with a shortwave disturbance may clip portions of the southern zones Thursday, but even the most aggressive modes keep the bulk of moisture SE of Lake County at this time. This day will still be watched regarding any dry lightning potential through Trinity County (5 to 10%), especially if the moisture flux nudges northwest at all. A secondary wave will move NE over Northern California Friday into Saturday morning. This disturbance will carry higher instability and moisture (though still meager), giving a slightly higher chance for some thunderstorm activity (5-10% over Trinty County northward through far eastern Del Norte County, and 15% over Siskiyou County and far northeast Del Norte). There would be a potential for nocturnal activity late Friday as well if storms occur at all. Storm movement Friday would be to the north/northeast around 20 mph. Smoke from the ongoing MP18 fire near Hoopa will likely dampen instability (CAPE) over the afternoon hours, further lowering confidence on thunderstorm coverage. COASTAL FLOODING...Measured sea levels continue to run approximately 0.7 to 0.84 ft above the predicted tide level in Humboldt Bay. The tide gage at the North Spit measured 8.82 ft at the highest peak last night with a 0.84 ft anomaly which drove the predicted tide of 7.98 ft near the coastal flood advisory range of 8.9. The predicted high tide overnight will be around 7.84ft and with a similar anomaly it will be just under the criteria for an advisory, but the weakening northerly winds may slightly enhance the anomaly. /EYS && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 1 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ103. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 1 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ415. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ450-455. Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ470-475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

000 FXUS66 KMTR 130029 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 529 PM PDT Wed Aug 12 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 218 PM PDT Wed Aug 12 2026 - Near-critical fire weather conditions Wednesday afternoon through Thursday early morning across Monterey and San Benito Counties due to high based thunderstorms - Up to a 15% chance for elevated rain showers/thunderstorms Wednesday across the Central Coast - Cooling trend through Friday will bring well below normal temperatures, gradual warming trend this weekend into next week - Minor coastal flooding for bayshore locations along the San Francisco Bay, San Pablo Bay, and Monterey Bay through Thursday morning && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 218 PM PDT Wed Aug 12 2026 (This evening through Thursday night) Isolated thunderstorm potential continues through this evening along the Central Coast with increasing confidence compared to this morning. Radar shows a line of storms developing off of the Big Sur coastline and moving in to Monterey County. As of this morning/early afternoon, we have cells moving inland in the vicinity of the Timber Fire which produced lightning both offshore and on land. This cell backbuilt to the southwest with additional cells developing in the wake of the original (inland) cell over the marine environment. These additional storms have been slowly moving inland in the vicnity of the Timber Fire and may also become favorable to produce lightning. Any of these cells will be capable of producing gusty, erratic wind and dry lightning with any rain evaporating before reaching the surface due to the elevated storm nature. Fuels are incredibly dry right now with near critical fire weather concerns across Monterey and San Benito Counties. If dry lightning occurs, it is likely to result in additional fire starts. Residents of interior Monterey and San Benito County (particularly along and within the higher terrain) should stay weather aware, avoid unnecessary activities that may result in sparks/fire, and follow guidance from local officials. Confidence is highest in thunderstorms over the elevated terrain with orographic lift acting as the trigger for storms to develop. This is an ongoing event and we will be paying close attention to the radar this afternoon and evening as it evolves. Tonight into tomorrow, a low pressure system offshore will move into the Central Coast and bring additional chances for thunderstorms through Thursday morning. HRRR guidance shows several hundred joules/kg of MUCAPE moving across the Central Coast tonight into early Thursday with decent upper level support (700-500 mb lapse rates between 7-8 C/km) and lingering monsoonal moisture. Given that storms are currently occurring along Big Sur, it is likely that we will see additional storms again tonight through tomorrow morning across the Central Coast. Storms tonight and tomorrow morning could potentially reach as far north as the Santa Cruz Mountains and the South Bay. Storms are most likely to form along the higher terrain and be driven by orographic lift. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 218 PM PDT Wed Aug 12 2026 (Friday through next Tuesday) Thunderstorm chances diminish after Thursday with drier conditions to prevail into next week. Temperatures will remain well below normal across the Bay Area and Central Coast as upper level troughing persists through this weekend. This will keep highs in the 60s closer to the shoreline and in the 70s to mid 80s across the interior. The exception will be the interior Central Coast where highs will warm into the upper 80s to low 90s late weekend into early next week. Temperatures gradually warm next week as ridging pushes into the Desert Southwest from the Central US and troughing continues over the Eastern Pacific Ocean. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 455 PM PDT Wed Aug 12 2026 Primarily VFR with the marine layer at ~2000ft. Expecting more of an inland push tonight through Thursday morning. Offshore eddys will continue to produce some uncertainty in exact timing for the onset of MVFR/IFR ceilings for the Bay Area terminals. Vicinity of SFO...As mentioned above, low confidence in timing for MVFR/IFR ceilings especially at KSFO. There is chance that MVFR/IFR ceilings develop around sunset tonight at KSFO, though more likely later during the overnight hours. Higher confidence for KOAK to get there around sunset. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Onshore push out ahead of weakening convection already has KSNS in MVFR with KMRY expected to follow suit over the next couple of hours, then both terminals IFR later during the overnight hours. There is a slight chance that KMRY remains MVFR/IFR through the entire forecast period, with KSNS to lift to VFR by late morning. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 455 PM PDT Wed Aug 12 2026 North to northwest fresh to strong winds with isolated near gale force gusts diminish by Thursday morning. In response, rough seas subside to moderate by Thursday night. A long period southerly swell around 16 to 18 seconds approaches our coastal waters Friday night and persists through the weekend. Visibility may decrease due to haze and smoke nearby the Big Sur coastline due to the Timber fire. Thunderstorms with lightning activity has been present along the Big Sur coastline into Monterey Bay as well with the potential for these threats to persist into early Thursday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 118 AM PDT Wed Aug 12 2026 Near-critical fire weather conditions Wednesday afternoon through Thursday early morning across Monterey and San Benito Counties due to high based thunderstorms. Confidence remains low for a low probability/high impact scenario of elevated rain showers/thunderstorms across the Central Coast from a low pressure system that is currently 300 miles southwest of Point Conception. Erratic/gusty outflow winds of 35-45 mph can be expected with any elevated rain showers/thunderstorms. Lightning will pose the risk for new fire starts and has the potential to hinder operations on the Timber Fire in Big Sur. The areas of most concern will be in the higher terrain above the marine layer (1,500 feet), namely the Santa Lucia Mountains and Gabilan Range. Poor minimum daytime relative humidity around 30% is expected in the afternoons with little-to-no recovery overnight. Sarment && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506- 508-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...JM MARINE...Navarrete Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

741 FXUS66 KOTX 122354 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 454 PM PDT Wed Aug 12 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Haze and areas of smoke continues, with some improvement possible in some areas due to gusty north to northeast winds into Thursday. - Red Flag Warning has been issued for scattered showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday evening for portions of Central Washington and into early Thursday morning for portions of Northeast Washington into the Idaho Panhandle. && .SYNOPSIS... A weather system skirting the region will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday Night to portions of Central and Northeast Washington into the Idaho Panhandle. Most of the region will see drier weather Thursday through the weekend except for a chance of showers and thunderstorms primarily in the mountains. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms along the East Slopes of the Cascades and northern mountains will continue to develop into the evening hours due to increased lift and instability with a passing upper level trough. Precipitable water values around 150% of normal and slow storm motion will allow for rain to occur with these storms, which could be locally heavy along the East Slopes of the Cascades and Okanogan Highlands where storm motion is slowest. If a storm goes over a vulnerable burn scar debris flows would be possible and something that will continue to be monitored. Elevated instability over NE WA into the ID Panhandle will allow for some storms to persist into the overnight hours and thus the Red Flag Warning for much of NE WA/N Idaho was extended through 8 AM Thursday. This passing weather system will also allow a backdoor cold front to move in from the north and northeast with gusty winds developing this evening. Several of the high resolution models show widespread gusts of 25-40 MPH developing and thus evening winds were increased. As of 2 PM some of these gusts were already materializing with gusts to around 35 MPH in the Okanogan Valley and 25 MPH around Bonners Ferry. Thursday: As the short wave associated with the upper trough exits large scale lift moves out. However residual moisture and daytime heating is expected to allow isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop over the high terrain, especially along the East Slopes of the Cascades. Friday through Wednesday: Ensemble means show the upper trough retrograding to off the coast putting the Inland NW in a broad south to southwest flow for several days. We will need to closely watch for additional weather disturbances coming through the region. Yet at this time most of these look on the weaker side supporting the chance of daily afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances mainly over the mountains. Regarding smoke: The strong shift in north to northeast this evening, with winds remaining out of the north-northeast into Thursday and Friday may help clear some smoke out of the region, especially over NE Washington and N Idaho. Yet with the potential for new fire starts from lightning this is not a high confidence situation. Several Air Quality agencies have issued Air Quality Alerts and Advisories which remain in effect for several counties. JW && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFs: VFR/MVFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours with areas of smoke and haze. Winds will be breezy through the Cascade gaps including at KEAT. Ensmebles indicate a line of north winds moving across the Basin during the evening 02-11Z for /KMWH/KGEG/KSFF/KCOE. A chance for -shra and -tsra today and tonight, especially across the northern counties, including places like Winthrop, Omak and Colville. Lesser chances at TAF locations and primarily after 00Z for these locations. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in smoke and haze continuing to impact the area terminals, but low confidence in extent of reduced vis/cigs. Alternate scenario near KGEG/KSFF/KCOE, low confidence risk for t-storms after 22-00Z. Outflow winds gusting near 20-30kts possible. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 55 81 54 83 53 87 / 40 10 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 55 80 53 82 53 86 / 30 10 0 0 0 0 Pullman 47 82 46 82 47 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Lewiston 60 88 60 87 60 91 / 0 0 10 10 0 20 Colville 44 78 41 81 43 84 / 80 30 10 0 0 0 Sandpoint 47 72 45 77 46 82 / 60 40 10 0 0 0 Kellogg 52 78 51 78 51 83 / 20 30 0 20 0 0 Moses Lake 57 85 58 86 56 89 / 30 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 63 85 65 84 64 87 / 70 10 20 20 10 0 Omak 57 85 57 85 57 88 / 50 10 20 10 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Friday for Central Chelan County-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area- Northeast Blue Mountains-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Chelan County-Western Okanogan County. Red Flag Warning until 8 AM PDT Thursday for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-Foothills of Northeast Washington (Zone 701)-Okanogan Highlands and Kettle Mountains (Zone 699)-Selkirk Mountains of Northeast Washington (Zone 700). Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for East Portion of North Cascades National Park/Lake Chelan National Recreation Area (Zone 697)-East Washington Central Cascades (Zone 696)-East Washington North Cascades (Zone 698)-Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)- Methow Valley (Zone 704)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)- Waterville Plateau (Zone 706). ID...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Friday for Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area-Northern Panhandle. Red Flag Warning until 8 AM PDT Thursday for Northern and Central Idaho Panhandle (Zone 101). && $$

734 FXUS66 KPDT 122326 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 426 PM PDT Wed Aug 12 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near-seasonal temperatures through the week. - Transition to a convective weather pattern Today with daily shower and thunderstorm chances into next week, mainly for the mountains. - Critical Fire weather due to lightning Risk Thursday afternoon && .DISCUSSION... The region is transitioning into a convective pattern which should linger into the early weekend bringing potential each afternoon and evening of shower and thunderstorms with possible fire weather impacts due to lightning if it is abundant enough. Confidence for measurable precipitation is not high (in the 15 to 25% range) Thursday afternoon across the John Day Highlands/Basin and southern Blue Mountains however the drought with high ERCs have leaned us toward the Red Flag as NBM members area trending around 0.1 flashes /sq mile /5 mins across these zones from mid afternoon and across the overnight hours into Friday morning. HRRR smoke models show a southward push of vertically integrated smoke as showers and thunderstorms can create outflow winds across northern WA and the Upper Columbia Basin overnight and early Thursday. Temperatures continue to remain largely unchained by the pattern with upper 80s and across the Columbia Basin and cooler low 80s into the foothills and mountain zones, warming back into the 90s across the Columbia Basin by Sunday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... VFR conditions prevail with elevated smoke over the area. Some smoke may reach surface level through the overnight hours, temporary bringing MVFR conditions to some sites (5 to 15 percent). Otherwise expecting dry conditions across the board. The main exception may be some shower/thunderstorms developing near YKM over the next several hours, but not expecting T-Storm coverage to reach that far with the main impacts near the downslope of the East Cascades. A stray shower (5 to 15 percent) may pass over YKM through 03Z, but not confident at this time to put it as a line. && .FIRE WEATHER... Red Flag warnings were issued for several Oregon Fire Zones as monsoonal moisture interacts with weak upper vorticity in the mean trough from the Oregon Cascades and eastward Thursday afternoon/evening into he John Day Basin and southern Blue Mountains, even beyond midnight. The seasonal dry period with high ERCs have tipped us toward the Red Flag as NBM members are trending around 0.1 flashes /sq mile /5 mins across these zones from mid afternoon and across the overnight hours into Friday morning and any GC can create new starts. Any convection beyond Thursday will be evaluated against any wetting rain chances, which while are not high, are quite variable and at 10 to 70% on a 24 hr basis highest in the eastern Oregon zones. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 52 85 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 58 87 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 57 89 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 58 88 60 88 / 20 0 10 10 HRI 55 89 57 90 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 55 83 56 83 / 40 10 20 30 RDM 44 84 48 85 / 0 0 10 10 LGD 53 86 55 86 / 0 0 30 30 GCD 52 87 54 86 / 0 0 50 40 DLS 60 91 62 91 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Air Quality Alert until 3 PM PDT Friday for WAZ026>030-521>523. OR...Air Quality Alert until 3 PM PDT Friday for ORZ041-049-050-502- 503-505-506-509>511. Red Flag Warning from 1 PM Thursday to 5 AM PDT Friday for ORZ696>699. Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for ORZ700-705. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...95 FIRE WEATHER...71

254 FXUS65 KREV 121900 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1200 PM PDT Wed Aug 12 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Showers and thunderstorms widespread today and tomorrow with risk of heavy rains and flash flooding. Possible showers overnight tonight. * Temperatures cooling to near or below normal levels through the weekend along with typical afternoon breezes. * No significant heat or strong wind events indicated into next week. && .DISCUSSION... * Showers and t-storms are a good bet (30-80% chances) this afternoon through early evening, mainly along and east of Hwy 395 per the latest HREF/NBM guidance. Main concern is locally heavy rain with rates 1-1.5"/hour along with erratic outflows and lightning. Thursday appears to be the highest risk of heavy rains with another round of showers/storms forecast. If the stars align and we don`t cloud over, storms could produce rainfall amounts of 1.5-2.5"/hour, as such WPC has placed much of the region in a rare slight risk for excessive rainfall Thursday. Flood Watches in effect today and tomorrow. * Impacts wise the major concern is recent and ongoing wildfire burn areas being more susceptible to flash flooding, mud slides, and debris flows - so we will be quick to warn on these spots. The Stallion Fire is notable with steep terrain and a history of debris flows from fires in the vicinity in the last 5-10 years. New fire starts from lightning outside storm cores are certainly possible with very dry vegetation, and outflow winds of 30-40 MPH could drive fire in random directions rather suddenly. HREF suggesting outflows nearing 60 MPH over the dry lake beds between Fallon-Winnemucca today and tomorrow, so blowing dust will be a concern. * Sufficient moisture and instability is present for overnight and early morning showers and isolated storms. HREF is showing this nicely over Western Nevada, Tahoe, and the eastern Sierra tonight, roughly 20-40% odds. Either way, storm initiation Thursday will be earlier than normal, early-mid morning most likely. If we do cloud over quickly tomorrow, on the other hand, then that could reduce the intensity of storms/rainfall rates. * Going into Friday, a bit drier airmass works in but instability remains and with upper trough to our west, chances for storms continue but at a lower confidence level. Roughly 10-20% along Hwy 395 up to 30-40% out along Hwy 95. * For the weekend into early next week, airmass continues to dry but not too excessively and temperatures remain near to just below seasonal normals, coupled with daily zephyr breezes. Guidance is not showing anything too strong on the winds, 10-15 MPH gusting to 20 MPH in the afternoons, so that is good news for any continuing fire suppression efforts. -Chris && .AVIATION... * Showers and t-storms are a good bet (30-80% odds) near and east of RNO-CXP-MEV-MMH today, with more widespread activity forecast for Thursday (50-90% most areas, with 30-40% in the Sierra around TRK/TVL). MVFR-IFR conditions possible in heavy rains, lightning, and erratic outflow winds of 25-35 knots. Blowing dust also possible around HTH/NFL/LOL both days. * Airmass is moist and unstable enough to allow for showers and isolated storms overnight tonight into Thursday morning, 10-30% chances. But the most favored times for storms remain the afternoon and early evening. * Wildfires, specifically the large Bug/Stallion Fires N of RNO, will continue to produce haze and smoke restrictions to visibility (5-10 SM) through at least Thursday depending on fire activity. Winds are more variable today/tomorrow so smoke forecasts are low confidence. New fire starts from lightning also could add to smoke/haze levels. -Chris && .FIRE WEATHER... * Obvious concerns are with thunderstorms today and tomorrow producing heavy rains, strong outflow winds, and new lightning starts outside the cores. * Flood Watch in effect today and tomorrow for increased potential of flash flooding, mud slides, and debris flows on current and recent burn areas, including the Bug and Stallion Fires just north of Reno. Stallion Fire probably slightly higher risk with steeper terrain involved, but any rainfall can create hazardous conditions for movement of fire personnel. Rainfall rates over 1"/hour are expected from any storms both days. * Outflow winds producing sudden shifts in fire behavior and direction are also a concern both days. Latest high resolution models indicating potential for gusts of 30-40 MPH close to active fires, with potential for gusts over 50 MPH out east toward the Highway 95 corridor. * New lightning starts given the very dry fuels are a definite possibility. While heavy rains are favored from storms, lightning outside storm cores can still produce new starts or holdovers that simmer for several days or longer. Fire Weather Watch in effect for the Tahoe Basin Thursday as that has the nexus of slightly drier storms and quicker storm motions, but admittedly confidence is low. * Also of note is potential for overnight showers and storms tonight into Thursday morning - roughly 20-40% chances. So the risk of lightning and outflows and brief heavy rains doesn`t necessarily die off when the sun goes down. -Chris && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Flood Watch through Thursday evening NVZ001-003. Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening NVZ004. CA...Fire Weather Watch from late tonight through Thursday evening CAZ272. Flood Watch through Thursday evening CAZ073. && $$

005 FXUS66 KSTO 121807 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1107 AM PDT Wed Aug 12 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Shower and thunderstorm chances south of Highway 50 today, with best chances south and east of our area. - Red Flag Warning in effect from 5 AM Thursday until 9 PM Thursday for a mix wet/dry thunderstorms and strong outflow winds for elevations above 5000 feet in the Sierra. - Slightly cooler, but still hot, through Wednesday, followed by notably cooler temperatures for the remainder of the week. - Reduced Mountain thunderstorm chances continue on Friday around 10-15% chance as we dry into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Current satellite shows scattered high clouds across our Central Valley and over the Sierra with a slot of more cumulus and convective cloud cover streaming across our southeast late this morning. This is ahead of our trough and present monsoonal moisture fueling activity today leading to a 10-25% chance of mountain thunderstorms this evening, mainly confined the Sierra south of 50 looking through today`s hi-res forecast runs. Confidence remains lower in the short term so it could be very possible our area doesn`t see any resulting precipitation for this afternoon and evening but would be under the threat of gusty outflow boundaries and increased cloud cover with thunderstorms development staying to our southeast. Looking to late this evening into early Thursday morning, given the increased moisture in the area we could see showers over our southeast across the upper foothills (10-20% chance wetting rain below 5000 feet) and mountains with a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms possible beginning tomorrow morning above 5000 feet over the Sierra Crest. This threat will continue and expand along the mountain and by the afternoon be 10-30% across the Sierra Crest. Models have done a poor job handling our monsoonal moisture so confidence remains limited but given the fuel picture and thunder threat... We have issued a Red Flag Warning for the Sierra south of Interstate 80 across Fire Zone 136 Sierra (El Dorado-Amador) Above 5000 ft and Fire Zone 139 Sierra (Cal-Tuo) Above 5000 feet from 5 AM to 9 PM Thursday a for a mix of wet and dry storms combined with gusty outflow winds from any developed storm. This will support new fire starts and rapid spread, even if wetting rain falls within storm cores. Please continue to practice fire/thunderstorms safety and stay up to date with the latest forecast conditions as things could change quickly given the low confidence nature of summer thunderstorm forecasting. Lastly, this pattern will bring notably cooler temperatures across interior NorCal Thursday and Friday, with highs in the 80s across the valleys, mid 90s to mid 80s for the foothills and 60s for the mountains. Monsoonal moisture will gradually push back out of the area after Friday. As result, thunderstorms chances begin to decrease to 10% or less along the Sierra crest heading into the weekend as below normal temperatures and drier weather settle in elsewhere. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions prevail across interior NorCal next 24 hours. Breezy onshore flow will continue today, with surface winds below 15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts this afternoon and evening as Delta Breeze increases. Mountain thunderstorm chances increase around 20z today through 05z Thursday; then return around 12z Thursday morning. Non-zero chance (2-4%) of isolated t-storm in southern Sacramento Valley and northern San Joaquin Valley TAF sites from around 12-18z Thursday. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 5 AM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Sierra (Cal- Tuo) Above 5000 ft-Sierra (El Dorado-Amador) Above 5000 ft. && $$

455 FXUS65 KMSO 121842 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1242 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Isolated to widely scattered storms with gusty outflows in SW and WC MT today, widespread storms along the Canadian border in NW MT. - Strong easterly gap winds accelerate in canyon corridors tonight with temporary surface smoke relief. - Cooler, active shower/storm pattern continues through Friday before upper ridge slowly rebuilds this weekend. Monsoonal moisture interacting with a moist Pacific trough lifting along the Canadian border will trigger convection this afternoon and evening. Across Southwest Montana and areas east of US Highway 93, isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms will develop. Dry sub-cloud layers (inverted-V thermodynamic profiles) will favor an environment capable of mostly dry lightning and microburst outflow exceeding 40 mph. Localized heavy rain will be possible most concerning in deep canyons and across burn scars and disturbed / urban ground cover. In Northwest Montana, shower and thunderstorm coverage will be more widespread primarily along and near the Canadian border, where synoptic forcing is strongest. Convection will persist into tonight while storm coverage wanes and slowly drifts eastward. Meanwhile, a strengthening low-level easterly push will drive a strong northeast wind shift this evening across Northwest Montana, including Flathead Lake where a Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect through midnight. Low-level easterly gap winds will accelerate overnight through east-to-west terrain passes, particularly in known-prone locations such as Bad Rock and Hellgate Canyon. This easterly flow will temporarily clear surface smoke southward, though elevated smoke aloft will likely remain. Scattered to widespread shower and thunderstorm coverage will expand westward across western Montana and north-central Idaho on Thursday and into Friday. Elevated Precipitable Water (PWAT) values and persistent synoptic forcing will increase the potential for localized heavy rainfall, particularly with slower-moving convective cores. Temperatures will remain moderated under cloud cover and easterly low-level flow. Not every location will measure notable nevermind heavy precipitation but the coverage and duration of active weather is favorable for much of Western Montana being able to pull down some long-awaited rain. The upper-level ridge will gradually rebuild over the Northern Rockies this weekend into early next week under southwesterly flow aloft. While afternoon temperatures will warm, monsoonal moisture tapped within the southwesterly flow will keep PWAT values elevated. This will sustain near-daily afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances through the weekend and into next week, preventing a return to completely dry conditions. Wildfire smoke will remain a challenge through the long-term with minimal suppression anticipated at this time in the source regions of the smoke (WA and OR). && .AVIATION...Isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to develop across far northwest Montana, in addition to Lemhi County through southwest Montana by mid afternoon (2-4pm). Lightning chances increase (30% probability) for KGPI and KBTM. Watch for gusty outflow winds to 40 kts near any thunderstorms, mainly across southwest Montana. Another weather impact during this time will be surface wind shifting to northeast from north to south across western Montana this evening into Thursday morning. 30-40 knot winds will exist over the terrain along the portion of the Continental Divide just east of KGPI, with lesser wind speeds further south. KGPI and KMSO are expected to see gusts of 20-30 kts. Wildfire smoke continues to limit visibility but some improvement is anticipated behind the northerly wind shift tonight into Thursday morning. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Lake Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to midnight MDT tonight for Flathead/Mission Valleys. ID...None. && $$

223 FXUS65 KBOI 130010 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 610 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - A 15 to 20 percent chance of thunderstorms near the Idaho/Nevada border this afternoon. - Fire weather concerns increase due to threat of thunderstorms Thursday afternoon through Friday. - Thunderstorms with heavy rain may also increase the risk for flash flooding especially for recent burn scars on Friday and Saturday. - Temperatures cooling to around 5 degrees below normal come Friday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Friday Night/... Issued 219 PM MDT WED AUG 12 2026 An increasingly active convective pattern is expected across southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho as monsoonal moisture continues to push northward into the region. For this afternoon and evening, isolated thunderstorms will focus near the Idaho/Nevada border. Mid-level moisture ahead of a weak trough to the north may also allow isolated convection (15% chance) late this evening from Burns to Baker City and McCall. Gusty outflow winds and lightning will be the main threats with early activity due to dry air in the lower boundary layer. Moisture advection accelerates on Thursday supported by a passing upper-level shortwave. This feature will provide additional lift and support scattered thunderstorm development from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning across southwest Idaho and eastern Oregon. This increases the risk for new fire starts with abundant lightning associated with initially dry thunderstorms. By Friday afternoon, deep monsoonal moisture fully encompasses much of Idaho in southwest flow aloft. Precipitable water values will climb significantly, with the highest values and best dynamic forcing concentrated over central Idaho. Convective hazards will transition from dry lightning and gusty winds to heavy rain production. These thunderstorms will create an elevated risk for flash flooding and debris flows, particularly over steep terrain and recent burn scars, including the Wapiti burn scar. A Flash Flood Watch may be needed for Friday and Saturday for burn scars in central Idaho as confidence in heavy rainfall potential increases. Increased cloud coverage and showers will also yield cooler temperatures Friday, dropping high temperatures several degrees below seasonal averages. && .LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/... Issued 219 PM MDT WED AUG 12 2026 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into Saturday as moisture remains under persistent southwest flow aloft while another shortwave rotates through the area. Precipitable water values will remain high (near the 80th to 90th percentile), so the risk for localized flash flooding over recent burn scars across central Idaho will persist through Saturday afternoon. A warming and drying trend is expected to take hold Sunday and Monday as weak upper-level ridging attempts to build into the Intermountain West. Moisture will begin to scour out from west to east, though lingering low-level moisture will maintain a slight chance (10 to 20 percent) of afternoon showers and thunderstorms over higher terrain. Temperatures will recover back toward seasonal normals for early next week. Model guidance suggests another Pacific trough approaching the northwest coast by midweek, which could reintroduce breezy conditions, a slight cooling trend, and increasing precipitation chances. && .AVIATION /00Z Thursday through Friday/... Issued 550 PM MDT WED AUG 12 2026 Generally VFR with periods of MVFR possible in wildfire smoke under mid to high clouds. A 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms south of KTWF through this evening. Showers increasing Thursday morning in south-central Idaho, with isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing across the area Thursday late afternoon and evening. Outflow gusts up to 40 kt near thunderstorms. Surface winds: SW-NW 5-15 kt, gusts up to 25 kt near KONO/KBKE this evening. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-SW 5-15 kt. KBOI...VFR with reduction in visibility due to wildfire smoke at times. Foothills obscured by smoke. A 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms by Thursday evening. Surface winds: NW 7-12 kt, becoming variable by mid evening. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Red Flag Warning from 3 PM Thursday to 6 AM MDT Friday for IDZ400>403-420-421-423-424-426. OR...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM Thursday to 5 AM PDT Friday for ORZ670>672. Air Quality Alert until 1 PM MDT /noon PDT/ Friday for ORZ061- 063-064. Red Flag Warning from 3 PM MDT /2 PM PDT/ Thursday to 9 AM MDT /8 AM PDT/ Friday for ORZ673>675. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....ST SHORT TERM...JDS LONG TERM....JDS

968 FXUS65 KLKN 121952 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1252 PM PDT Wed Aug 12 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Flood watch in effect for central NV due to excessive rainfall and possible debris flows * Monsoon weather pattern for Central and Eastern Nevada expected to persist through the week && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Tuesday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Very little change from yesterdays forecast as upper level ridging to the east and troughing to the west continue to funnel moisture into the Great Basin area. This will result in continued rounds of showers and thunderstorms, mainly in central and eastern Nevada today before expanding to the entire forecast area tomorrow. Tomorrow is also expected to be the wettest day, with widespread accumulations of 0.25 and a band of 0.5 to 0.75 shaping up just south of the US-50 corridor. This has resulted in a Slight (15%) risk of excessive rainfall for tomorrow and isolated flash flooding is expected with the strongest cells. The trough begins to lift to the north on Friday, weakening the moisture flow for the weekend and mostly cutting off storms, leaving about a 10% to 20% chance through Sunday. Models remain in disagreement after Sunday, with the biggest question being the future of the current monsoon event. The general indication is still for the monsoon to continue in central Nevada, however the strength and northern extent of the event still depend on how the upper ridge behaves over the next few days and into next week. The current forecast is reflecting the more cut off scenario, with dry conditions Monday and Tuesday and some isolated showers for Wednesday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in showers and thunderstorms through Friday, with moderate confidence in spatial extent of the heaviest accumulations. Moderate confidence in a mostly dry weekend. Low confidence in the forecast after Sunday as models continue to strongly disagree regarding the upper level pattern. No changes to NBM forecast. && .AVIATION...Showers and thunderstorms are currently beginning across the area. Significant impacts are only expected at KENV/KELY/KTPH at this time but cannot be ruled out for KBAM/KEKO (about 10% to 20% probability). As usual, any cells near a terminal have the potential for gusty erratic winds 40KT or more and lowered ceilings and visibility. Otherwise, VFR conditions and gusty afternoon winds up to 25KT will be the story through the next 24 hours. && .FIRE WEATHER...Continued moisture flow into the Great Basin will result in several more rounds of showers and thunderstorms. While this moisture will keep humidity levels elevated and prevent dry- windy threats, heavy rainfall may pose flooding and debris flow threats, particularly for the New Pass and Ward fire areas. Lightning may also be a threat to fire personnel, although associated rainfall is expected to prevent any new starts from lightning. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Flood Watch through Thursday evening NVZ035-037-040-041. && $$ DISCUSSION...94 AVIATION...94 FIRE WEATHER...94