281 FXUS66 KSEW 081849 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 1049 AM PST Thu Jan 8 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Showers continuing through Thursday with accumulating snowfall in the mountains. Drier conditions are expected Friday into Saturday. Another frontal system will move into Western Washington Sunday, with warmer temperatures and continued precipitation early next week. Dry conditions are favored to develop midweek. && .UPDATE...Showers continue across the mountains this morning and some isolated showers are moving over the lowlands. In general the impacts are mainly confined to snow in the passes. Along the coast high surf conditions are gradually improving. Focus now has shifted to the weekend system and any potential for flooding, which will be the focus of the afternoon update. -Wolcott- && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...Scattered showers continue across Western Washington early this morning, particularly in the Cascades and along the Olympic Peninsula. This trend will continue through the afternoon. Snow levels will remain lower this morning as well, ranging 800 to 1300 feet. Brief rain/snow mix may occur in heavier showers, however, no snow accumulation is expected for the lowlands. Minor snow accumulations may exist in the Cascade Valleys through the morning, especially along US-2 (due to weak convergence) and into Skagit/Whatcom Counties where hi-res guidance suggests heavier precipitation may develop by mid-morning. These areas include Index to Skykomish, and in the vicinity of Darrington. Otherwise, moderate to heavy snowfall will continue at times in the Cascades, including for the Cascade Passes. A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for the Cascades through this afternoon. Precipitation will slowly taper off this evening in the lowlands and into Friday morning for the Cascades. High surf conditions will continue through early afternoon along the Pacific Coast. Waves 18 to 24 feet are expected through the morning, before waves subside later today. This could result in dangerous conditions for beachgoers this morning. High pressure will build into Western Washington Friday into early Saturday, resulting in a period of drier weather. Another front will move onshore across the Olympic Peninsula late Saturday, and slowly progress eastwards over the weekend. Temperatures will gradually warm Friday and Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...The aforementioned front will continue to bring precipitation on Sunday, particularly over the Olympic Peninsula. Snow levels will also rise significantly on Sunday, approaching 5500 to 6500 feet by late weekend. There remains more considerable uncertainty in the QPF amounts for Monday and Tuesday. Another frontal system may stall over Western Washington, bring heavier QPF at times during this period. EPS/GEPS maintains higher QPF amounts than the GEFS, as the front slides farther southwards (heaviest from King CO northwards). This uncertainty can be seen in the 10-90th PCT spread in NBM.. for example, for Stevens Pass, the 10th-90th PCT range in QPF is 0" to 3.25" in 48 hours (ending 12z Tuesday). Snow levels will also remain high Monday and Tuesday, likely peaking between 6500 to 7500 feet. At this time, river flooding is not expected as drier conditions return on Wednesday, but rivers will be monitored if heavier QPF comes to fruition with melting snow in the mountains. Otherwise, upper ridging builds further over the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday, with drier conditions remaining the predominant theme into late week as noted by the latest CPC outlook. JD && .AVIATION... Majority of ceilings VFR this morning. Some lingering low cloud layers near the terminals may cause ceilings to go MVFR at times. The convergence zone from earlier this morning has lifted north of PAE. Light scattered showers will continue today. Guidance continues to trend more pessimistic in regards to ceilings, keeping MVFR ceilings lingering this afternoon/evening for some of the terminals. KSEA...A broken cloud layer around 2000 ft continues to linger at the terminal this morning. May see some bouncing between MVFR and VFR at times. The latest guidance seems to favor MVFR ceilings continuing into the afternoon/evening hours, and thus have trended the TAFs to reflect it. There may be some VFR ceilings at times, but may be rather brief. SW winds will increase to 8 to 12 kt this morning. Winds easing back down to 4 to 8 kt after 02Z/03Z. Felton/29 && .MARINE... High pressure will rebuild over the waters today and remain through Friday night. A weak frontal system will move across the area Saturday. Systems will move through the northern portion of the waters Sunday and Monday. High pressure will rebuild Tuesday. Small craft advisory westerly winds in the Central and Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca this morning. Winds easing midday. Winds increasing over the coastal waters Friday night with small craft advisory winds over the weekend. Seas still lingering at 18 to 20 feet this morning subsiding to 10 to 14 feet tonight and 8 to 12 feet Friday. Seas building Saturday with 12 to 16 foot seas by Sunday. Seas subsiding again Monday down to 8 to 11 feet Monday night. Felton && .HYDROLOGY...Drier conditions are expected Friday into Saturday. Another, potentially wet system is expected Sunday-Tuesday. There is still a fairly wide range out potential outcomes in regards to QPF amounts during this period. Snow levels will also rise early next week towards 6500 to 7500 feet. River flooding is not expected at this time, but rivers will need to be monitored. Dry conditions are then expected by the middle of next week which are favored to persist well into the week-2 time frame. JD/Wolcott && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Cascades of Southern King County-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties. High Surf Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for Grays Harbor County Coast-Northern Washington Coast. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM PST Friday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-Grays Harbor Bar- West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory until noon PST today for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. && $$

150 FXUS66 KPQR 081833 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATE National Weather Service Portland OR 1033 AM PST Thu Jan 8 2026 Updated Aviation discussion .SYNOPSIS...Scattered lowland rain showers and mountain snow showers continue today. Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect through this afternoon across the Cascades, with additional snow accumulations of 4 to 9 inches. Travel impacts continue through the Cascade passes today. Drier weather returns on Friday as high pressure builds. A weak front will bring chances for light rain over the weekend into early next week. Drier and relatively warmer conditions return mid next week. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night...Radar imagery as of early Thursday morning depicts scattered post-frontal showers across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington as the previous front has now exited the region. Lowland rain showers and Coast Range/Cascade snow showers will continue today as we remain in a post-frontal environment. Will note that this morning there is a 20-30% chance that a heavy shower brings snow levels down to the Valley floor, resulting in a brief rain/snow mix or wet snow. If this occurs, expect little to no snow accumulation with minimal travel impacts given the warm ground temperatures and air temperatures in the mid 30s. Once temperatures warm up this afternoon, the threat for lowland rain/snow mix goes away and snow showers across the Coast Range transitions to rain showers. There is also a 15-20% chance for thunderstorms along the coast this afternoon as instability increases due to colder air aloft. Any passing thunderstorms may bring lightning, heavy rain, gusty outflow winds, and/or small hail. Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect across the Cascades through 4 PM this afternoon, with additional snow accumulations of 4-9 inches. Travel through the Cascade passes continue to be impacted, so make sure to pack an emergency supply kit and refer to ODOT/WSDOT for the latest travel restrictions. Dry weather returns late tonight into Friday as an upper level ridge builds over the Pacific Northwest. As high pressure builds, there will be increasing cloud breaks, especially further south towards Lane County where high pressure will be stronger. Any clearing tonight will favor frost development across the central and southern Willamette Valley, as chances for Friday morning lows below 36 degrees F are around 50-70% between Corvallis and Eugene. -10 && .LONG TERM...Saturday to Wednesday...Mostly dry weather continues on Saturday as the upper level ridge axis progresses eastward over the interior northwest/Great Basin. However, by Saturday afternoon/evening, ensemble guidance is in agreement that another front over the northeast Pacific will approach the Pacific Northwest. This will return chances for light rain along the coast, however, this front struggles to move inland due to the aforementioned ridge keeping the system offshore. By the end of the weekend, ridging remains in place over the Great Basin, however most ensemble members (70-80%) suggest precipitation riding the northwestern periphery of the ridge will return more widespread chances for light rain across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington. This trend continues into early next week. It`s not until Wednesday when most ensemble members agree on more amplified ridging/500 mb heights over us which would return predominately dry conditions and warmer temperatures. -10 && .AVIATION...Northwest flow aloft today as an upper level ridge over the Pacific shifts eastward. High pressure will continue to build over the region through Friday. Expect predominately VFR conditions through early afternoon, before another round of showers moves across the area likely dropping CIGs to MVFR. Chances for MVFR remain around 40-60% through at least 08z Friday. Showers are expected to decrease after 06z Fri. Skies are more likely to clear out across southern portions of the area late tonight, which would allow for IFR to LIFR fog development near KEUG and KHIO after 10-12z Fri. Southerly winds to around 10 kt become light overnight. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR likely through 22z this afternoon before another round of showers moves across the area through this evening. Chances for MVFR CIGs persist around 40-50% after 22z through the TAF period. Southwest winds around 4-8 kt expected through this evening. /DH && .MARINE...As of 4 AM Thursday morning, seas have peaked around 22 to 25 ft at 16 seconds. Meanwhile, west-northwesterly winds are gradually decreasing and will weaken below 20 kt by this afternoon. Seas are forecast to subside slowly today, falling to 18 to 19 ft by late morning/early afternoon, and 15 to 16 ft by this evening. A Hazardous Seas Warning remains in effect through 10 PM this evening for all waters, including the Columbia River Bar. Afterwards, a Small Craft Advisory will be in effect from 10 PM Thursday to 4 PM Friday, mainly for seas of 10 to 14 ft at 14-15 sec. Seas fall below 10 ft Friday evening. Additional systems over the weekend will maintain breezy southerly winds. Chances for frequent, small craft wind gusts of 25-30 kt are around 60-80% Saturday-Sunday. Seas re-build this weekend as a west-southwesterly swell moves in. There is also a 60-80% chance for seas exceeding 13 ft beyond 20 NM offshore by Sunday. -10 && .BEACH HAZARDS...High surf conditions are expected through this afternoon as a long-period northwesterly swell arrives, bringing breakers up to 25 ft within the surf zone. A High Surf Advisory has been issued to cover this threat. Destructive waves may wash over beaches, jetties, and other structures unexpectedly. People can be swept off rocks and jetties and drown while observing high surf. Minor beach erosion may damage coastal properties and buildings. Higher than normal water run-up is expected on beaches and low-lying shoreline. Although high surf conditions ease tonight into Friday, a high threat of sneaker waves will remain a threat for several days thereafter. Waves may run further up the beach than normal. These waves can easily catch people off guard. Never turn your back to the ocean. -10 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...High Surf Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ101>103. Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ126>128. WA...High Surf Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for WAZ201. Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for WAZ211. PZ...Hazardous Seas Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for PZZ210- 251>253-271>273. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Friday for PZZ210-251>253-271>273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

538 FXUS66 KMFR 081143 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 343 AM PST Thu Jan 8 2026 .DISCUSSION (Today through Wednesday)... Key Points: * Snow Levels dropping to lowest levels of the season this morning - As low as 1700 ft this morning - Not expecting widespread impacts at lower levels - Longer commutes are possible at these lower elevations - Plan for slippery roads, especially areas below freezing * The forecast turns dry as high pressure builds in Friday - Middle parts of January expected to be relatively quiet - Biggest concerns could be valley fog and air stagnation Further Details: Northwesterly flow aloft will continue through today. Within the flow, we have PVA and moisture passing through the region. The result will be isolated to scattered showers through late this morning. Ensemble data suggests snowfall will be confined to higher elevations of the Cascades by late this morning. In the meantime, lower elevation snowfall will be possible this morning, with areas at 1700 feet possibly seeing light accumulations. This will be the lowest snow levels we have seen this season. While snow levels will be low, we will need precipitation to actually occur to get snow at these levels. The mostly isolated nature of showers may not allow for these lower elevations to see much accumulation (if any) and may be hit of miss for a lot of lower elevation areas. By 10am, we lose a majority of the energy aloft needed for precipitation, so not expecting to extend the current set of advisories/warnings through this time. With that said, we will have two areas of concern for travel this morning. One area around highway 138 near Crater Lake between Diamond Lake and highway 97, as well as areas along highway 140 near Lake of the Woods. These areas could see snowfall rates around 0.5"/hr between now (as of writing this) and through about 9am. The probability for these snowfall rates is only about 20%-40%, but worth noting given the implications on commutes through these areas. Not expecting much--if anything--on radar past 10am this morning; however, isolated showers could be possible along/near the coast. After today, a ridge of high pressure at 500mb will set in over the region, and this will result in overall quiet weather conditions through middle parts of the month. With recent precipitation, the main concern going forward will be low level saturation resulting in valley fog/freezing fog and possibly a stagnant airmass for westside valleys. Wind speeds do not look concerning beyond today with typical diurnal light wind speeds expected. Sunday into Monday we could see light rainfall amounts for areas along and near the coast, but by far and large most areas will be dry after today and likely through middle of next week. -Guerrero && .AVIATION (12Z TAFs)... Isolated showers expected to continue through this morning. Conditions are expected to general become more favorable throughout the day. High pressure will build in over the region today, and low level saturation from recent precipitation may lead to fog and possibly freezing fog tonight for westside areas which would include both KRBG and KMFR. Fog may become a common trend over the coming days as high pressure sticks around. Otherwise, generally light wind speeds expected through this cycle. -Guerrero && .MARINE...Updated 300 AM PST Thursday, January 8, 2026...Long period swell will build very steep seas today with dangerous bar and surf conditions possibly continuing through tonight. Conditions gradually improve Friday, but moderate south winds and steep seas are possible again this weekend with conditions hazardous to smaller crafts. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...High Surf Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ021-022. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for ORZ023- 024-026-029-030. Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST this morning for ORZ025-027- 028. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ350-356-370-376. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$

794 FXUS66 KEKA 080905 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 105 AM PST Thu Jan 8 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Showers will continually diminish through Thursday with light snow as low as 1000 to 2000 feet for interior areas early Thursday morning. Cooler than normal conditions will continue into Friday, but slowly warm and dry this weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Showers associated with a passing cold front will continue to diminish through Thursday afternoon. Along the coast, 0.3 to 0.6 inches of rain fell Wednesday night into early Thursday with locally higher amounts in the mountains (especially in Del Norte). Lower amounts are expected for the southern half of the area as the showers diminish Thursday. Snow levels continue to drop in the northern half of the area with some areas dropping as low as 1000 to 1500 ft by early Thursday morning. That said, the short lived nature of the system will greatly limit snow accumulation. There is generally less than a 20% chance of seeing even 3 inches of wet snow on some areas passes such as Berry Summit and Collier Tunnel, though areas in the high mountains could certainly see more. Some moderate gusty northwest winds up to about 35 mph will continue into Thursday afternoon, especially in Lake County. Cold air continues to quickly build behind the system. Areas closer to the coast will initially stay warmer due to clouds and recent rain, though windchills near 30 are still not out of the question around Humboldt Bay. With lows in the low 30s and moderate wind overnight, windchill will most likely drop into the mid 20s for many interior locations early Thursday, particularly in Lake and southern Mendocino, prompting an overnight cold weather advisory for the area. Wind will diminish Thursday into Friday. Drier and more clear conditions will prompt colder temperatures, especially along the coast, with a 70 to 80% chance of lows as low as 30 around Humboldt Bay Friday morning. Otherwise, weak ridging will slowly build into the region this weekend and into early next week. Gradual warming will occur by late this weekend and build into mid next week. Above average temperatures are forecast by Tuesday with some daytime interior highs in the low 70s by early next week. In contrast to the last couple of weeks, there is very little chance of rain with only 10% of ensemble members indicating any chance for wetting rain during the week. /JHW && .AVIATION...In the wake of a storm, post frontal showers will continue overnight. Gusty winds are expected near these rainshowers. Offshore flow will develop along the North Coast, allowing for clearing and VFR conditions through dawn. In the morning, coastal northerlies will develop with gusts up to 20kts possible for exposed terminals. Skies are expected to remain VFR with periods of MVFR through the night before clearing through the remainder of the TAF period. Inland areas will experience LLT through the night before clearing. Winds will remain elevated inland with gusts possible out of the NW. && .MARINE...NW winds of 15-25 kts this morning remain around 20-30 kts through the night and morning. A large long period swell is filling in. This swell will build to around 18 to 22 ft at 17 seconds by Thursday morning. Hazardous Seas Warnings are in effect through Thursday afternoon due to large waves from this swell. The winds and seas are expected to diminish Friday, but the swell may remain above 10 feet until Friday night. Saturday, the models are showing a weak weather system bringing some southerly winds to the area, but winds are currently forecast to remain below 20 kts. Sunday and into Monday, high pressure is expected to bring a return of northerly winds. && .BEACH HAZARDS...A long period northwest swell has started to fill into the waters, and periods of around 22 seconds are being observed. This swell is forecast to continue building overnight to around 18 to 22 ft at 17 seconds, which will produce breaking waves of 22 to 25 feet. A High Surf Advisory until 4 PM Thursday for this threat of large, powerful surf. Stay much farther back from the ocean and avoid steep beaches and jetties. Remember, never turn your back on the ocean! && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... High Surf Advisory until 4 PM PST Thursday for CAZ101-103- 104-109. Cold Weather Advisory until 8 AM PST Thursday for CAZ113- 115. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Hazardous Seas Warning until 3 PM PST Thursday for PZZ450- 455-470-475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

269 FXUS66 KMTR 081753 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 953 AM PST Thu Jan 8 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 159 AM PST Thu Jan 8 2026 - High and dry pattern with offshore flow and cold overnight conditions - Hazardous beach conditions at all Pacific Coast beaches through Friday and again early next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 159 AM PST Thu Jan 8 2026 (Today and tonight) Some rain showers associated with a cold front are quickly sweeping from northwest to southeast across the region. Accumulation has been a few hundredths at most with wind gusts in the 40-50 mph range in the higher terrain of the North Bay and East Bay. Activity is expected to be wrapped up by the afternoon which will give way to below normal temperatures and clear skies. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 159 AM PST Thu Jan 8 2026 (Friday through Wednesday) Surface high pressure will waste no time building in the cold front`s wake, initially into the California/Oregon border before ultimately into the Great Basin. Simultaneously, a coastal trough will develop off the California Coast which will facilitate offshore flow. Calm, clear, and cool conditions with long nights is a recipe for radiational cooling. The Extreme Cold Watch has been upgraded for the Thursday night period from 1 AM to 9 AM Friday. An Extreme Cold Warning is in effect for the Eastern Santa Clara Hills and Interior Monterey and San Benito Counties. In these locations, sub- freezing temperatures in the mid 20s to low 30s can be expected. Most of the rest of the Bay Area and Central Coast are under a Cold Weather Advisory during the same time. In these locations, temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 30s. As a reminder, the Extreme Cold Watch, Cold Weather Advisory, and Extreme Cold Warning have recently been adopted to address cold impacts to humans throughout the year. Friday and Saturday are expected to be the coldest mornings of the period - the Central Coast is forecast to be coldest Friday morning while the Bay Area is forecast to be coldest Saturday morning. It`s important to put all of this in context. 850 millibar temperatures can be used as a proxy for the air mass. At 12Z Friday, the 850 millibar temperature is forecast to be 8 degrees Celsius which is above the daily mean of 6.8 degrees Celsius for the date and time. This tells me that we are not dealing with a cold air mass. A lot of people have been asking if any record low temperatures will be broken and the answer is no as we simply do not have the air mass to support it and we have some very low temperatures to contend with. For example, SJC`s daily record lowest minimum temperature record is 22 degrees set all the way back in 1937 - they haven`t gotten below 30 degrees since December 2013. Suffice it to say that it`s going to be cold, but not record breaking cold. Confidence is high that an anomalously high amplitude upper-level longwave ridge will meander over the West Coast through Wednesday before retrograding west out over the Eastern Pacific Ocean. This will result in a warming trend of about 20 degrees in the next seven days. Overnight temperatures will respond accordingly, slowly beginning to warm up Sunday morning and continuing that trend through the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 944 AM PST Thu Jan 8 2026 VFR expected through the TAF period with a slight chance of reduced VIS at KSTS during the pre-dawn hours Friday. Otherwise a light offshore wind pattern keeps things very tame across the region with mostly clear skies and light to moderate E/NE winds. Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Light offshore wind setup will keep things quiet in terms of cloud cover. Most impactful thing for SFO will be the wind direction overnight tonight and Friday morning. Not anticipating winds above 08-10 kts at the moment, but direction will most likely be NE. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. High confidence in mostly clear skies with some high clouds entering the region by Friday morning. Generally light offshore flow, especially during the overnight hours when cold air drains out of the Salinas Valley. && .MARINE... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 944 AM PST Thu Jan 8 2026 Moderate to breezy winds are affecting the outer waters. A building northwesterly swell is arriving and is causing a rough sea state with shoaling near the coast, harbor entrances, and bars. Winds and seas will ease Friday into the weekend. && .BEACHES... Issued at 350 AM PST Thu Jan 8 2026 High Surf Advisory remains in effect through 10 pm Friday PST. Expect large breaking waves up to 22 feet, strong rip currents and sneaker waves from coastal Sonoma county to coastal Monterey county, excluding the northern Monterey Bay shoreline where a Beach Hazards Statement will be in effect. Large breaking waves can overpower swimmers resulting in significant physical injury and increase the risk of drowning. Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect through Friday evening for the northern Monterey Bay shoreline. Expect hazardous beach conditions with strong rip currents, sneaker waves, and breaking waves up to 15 feet. This will result in dangerous conditions along the shoreline. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...High Surf Advisory until 10 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-505-509-530. Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM PST Friday for CAZ502- 506-510-512-513-515-528>530. Extreme Cold Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM PST Friday for CAZ514- 516>518. Beach Hazards Statement through Friday evening for CAZ529. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sarment LONG TERM....Sarment AVIATION...Behringer MARINE...Murdock Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

834 FXUS66 KOTX 081749 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 949 AM PST Thu Jan 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light to moderate mountain snow Thursday, with localized light snow possible in the lowlands of far eastern Washington and Idaho. - Gusty winds Thursday. - Drier Friday into the weekend. - Light rain and high mountain snow return early next week. && .SYNOPSIS... Moderate mountain snow and gusty winds continue through Thursday afternoon, then a pattern shift brings drier conditions Friday into the weekend. Chances for rain and high mountain snow return early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Today through tonight: The band of snow brought in by the cold front has moved out of the forecast area. However, slick road conditions will continue, especially in and around Spokane due to the snow squall that passed by late yesterday. Morning commute impacts will be driven by subfreezing temperatures causing any melted snow to refreeze, so take precautions this morning while driving. Additionally, a tightening surface pressure gradient will bring breezy afternoon winds with gusts 20-25 mph across the basin. The Cascades and northern ID mountains will continue to see snowfall through this afternoon due to orographic lift. NBM 24-hour totals show an additional 9-12 inches of snow through early tomorrow morning. For Lookout Pass, snow amounts will be lower, with an additional 2-3 inches expected. To address these continued winter driving conditions, the Winter Storm Warning for the Cascades and the Winter Weather Advisory for the Central Panhandle Mountains will run through 4pm this afternoon. Friday through Sunday: Ensemble guidance continues to signal a building ridge, rising heights and bringing mostly benign weather to the area over the weekend. PWATs will drop down to 70-80% of normal, causing conditions to dry. Temperatures will rise slightly over the weekend but stay close to normals for this time of year with mid 30s to 40s as highs and mid 20s to 30s as lows. Sunday afternoon through Tuesday: By Sunday afternoon, chances of rain and snow return as a ridge flattens and a shortwave embedded within the flow moves through the forecast area. PWATs rise to nearly 200-250% of normal, and 850mb temperatures warm to above normal. This will raise snow levels to 5000-6000 feet throughout much of the area, limiting snow to the mountains. Long range models show light snow totals, with up to 6 inches at the highest elevations. Rainfall totals throughout the area will also be light. Due to these overall light precipitation amounts, the CPC`s 6-10 and 8-14 Day Outlooks still signal chances for higher than normal temperatures and lower than normal precipitation for this time. /AS && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFs: An upper trough exits east today, with lingering light snow shower chances around the Idaho Panhandle/far eastern third of WA. Limited shower chances at GEG/SFF/COE/PUW/LWS, with the LWS area perhaps seeing a rain/snow mix. However the risk is low so only COE has some PROB30 -sn in the TAF. IFR conditions are forecast improve toward MVFR, possibly lifting to VFR through the middle to later afternoon. Then additional stratus develops later tonight into Friday morning over GEG/SFF/COE/PUW/LWS/MWH, with mainly VFR lingering at EAT. Breezy winds this afternoon, then decreasing for this evening. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Some hi-res models showing a second round of showers for PUW,LWS, and COE, with confidence only highest near COE for prob30 -sn. Moderate confidence in improvement to MVFR and then briefly VFR at most TAF sites, which may be too optimistic but satellite trends suggest some clearing over the Columbia Basin may shift east. Fog lingers near MWH this morning and it is a very narrow area on satellite, but it has been persistent. Confidence is moderate that it will lift, but low in precise timing, then reducing again later tonight into early Friday but confidence is low. One-third of models show potential stratus developing at KEAT later tonight into early Friday too, but confidence is not high enough to have TAFs, but it will be something to monitor. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 35 27 38 26 39 28 / 20 10 10 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 35 26 38 26 39 27 / 50 20 30 0 0 0 Pullman 33 31 40 28 40 30 / 40 20 20 0 0 0 Lewiston 41 33 45 30 43 32 / 30 20 10 0 0 0 Colville 37 20 35 23 37 25 / 20 10 10 0 0 0 Sandpoint 33 23 34 27 37 26 / 60 10 30 10 0 10 Kellogg 31 28 36 27 41 28 / 80 50 70 0 0 0 Moses Lake 42 29 43 27 40 28 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 39 31 42 30 38 31 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Omak 36 26 38 28 37 28 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Western Chelan County. ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Central Panhandle Mountains. && $$

748 FXUS66 KPDT 081736 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 936 AM PST Thu Jan 8 2026 .Updated for Aviation... .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS...VFR conditions are generally expected through the TAF period, the only possible exception is ALW where MVFR is forecast Friday morning. Winds will be gusty in the 20 to 30 kt range through this evening, before decreasing to 10 kts or less for the remainder of the period. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 405 AM PST Thu Jan 8 2026/ DISCUSSION...Radar shows continues moderate to heavy snowfall in the Cascade region with some recent development of snow showers along the Blue Mountains. Winter Storm Warnings continue through Thursday afternoon until 4 PM with some gusty winds of up to 40 mph embedded in some of these snow bands. Recent guidance suggest we`ll see up to an additional 10 inches for the Northern Blue Mountains and up to an additional 9 inches for the Cascade Crests and Slopes (>80% confidence for all regions). Driving conditions will still be impacted greatly going through Thursday with breezy winds reducing visibility further with already accumulated snow fall. Temperatures are expected to remain near/at freezing within the warning areas but high temperatures will rise to above freezing by Sunday/Monday. An upcoming ridge will bring these temperatures in a slight warming trend along with much drier conditions going into early next week. 500-MB patterns are forecasting the first ridge to approach the area Saturday with a zonal/neutral pattern Sunday going through Monday. This will allow a brief valley rain/wintry mix in the mountains set-up to start the work week. Although it should be noted this next system is not expected to be as intense as this week with snow amounts with levels rising 5500 to 6000 feet. This will be mostly a rain dominated system with the more higher QPF values located in the Washington Cascades area, especially around the Snoqualmie region and, to a lesser extent, Cle Elum. NBM advertises up to an inch of QPF for the two-day event with up to a half inch for the Cle Elum area (50 to 70 percent confidence for both regions). Tuesday onwards currently seems to be mostly benign with the second ridge pulling through, albeit appears to be stronger and more amplified than the first ridge. This will make most precipitation processes more difficult to develop compared to the first ridge. Wind wise, it will continue to be breezy with possible local windy conditions (20 to 40 percent chance) through Thursday, especially across the lower Columbia Basin area. Pressure gradient tool did note >5 mb difference between BKE and MEH between Saturday morning and Sunday morning, so I inputed a NBM/NBM 90th percentile blend for the La Grande area and most of OR049 zone in general. Not currently expecting advisory levels at this time but the NBM only gives it a 5 to 10 percent chance of exceeding 45 mph gusts. AVIATION...12Z TAFS...For this period, VFR conditions prevail with breezy to locally windy conditions mostly concentrated in the lower Columbia Basin sites. PDT/ALW/PSC will continuously see gusts up to 20 to 25 miles per hour for the majority of the period, but not expecting to reach advisory criteria. Precipitation chances are not the greatest this period with DLS and ALW seeing only PROB30 chances with light rain as the dominant precip. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 43 33 50 29 / 20 20 0 0 ALW 43 35 48 32 / 40 30 10 0 PSC 48 34 50 28 / 10 10 0 0 YKM 45 29 45 27 / 10 10 0 0 HRI 46 34 50 28 / 10 10 0 0 ELN 38 28 41 25 / 20 10 10 0 RDM 39 23 45 24 / 20 10 0 0 LGD 37 31 43 27 / 60 50 10 0 GCD 35 26 43 26 / 40 20 0 0 DLS 45 36 48 31 / 40 20 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ502- 509. WA...Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for WAZ030- 522-523. && $$ SHORT TERM...97 LONG TERM....97 AVIATION...77

170 FXUS65 KREV 081332 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 532 AM PST Thu Jan 8 2026 .UPDATE... The back edge of the main snow band has departed the Greater Reno-Carson City-Minden Area and the Western Nevada Basin and Range. Radar and satellite imagery confirm the locus of frontogenesis shifting south and east, ending the threat for additional accumulation in the aforementioned areas. Consequently, the Winter Weather Advisory has been cancelled for the Greater Reno-Carson City-Minden Area and the Western Nevada Basin and Range. However, snow showers will persist through the morning commute hours across portions of southern Lyon and Mineral counties, where the Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect. Although the falling snow has ended for the Reno metro, the morning commute is being significantly impacted. Surface observations and road cameras indicate many thoroughfares remain snow-covered and icy. With temperatures well below freezing, existing snow and ice on roadways is unlikely to melt this morning. Commuters should continue to exercise caution, maintain high following distances, and allow for extended travel time. Brisk northerly winds are also contributing to cold and uncomfortable conditions this morning. Observations and short-term guidance indicate wind chills are generally in the -5 to 10 degree range along the midslopes and higher elevations of the Sierra, which will pose a concern for anyone recreating in the backcountry today. These conditions can lead to cold stress without proper gear, and those recreating outdoors should be prepared for significantly colder conditions than indicated by ambient temperatures alone. -Johnston && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /issued 450 AM PST Thu Jan 8 2026/ KEY MESSAGES... * Snow showers will dissipate this morning across Mineral, southern Lyon, and Mono counties. * Brisk northerly winds are expected today with cold temperatures. * After a cold Friday morning, warmer, drier weather returns through at least the end of next week. DISCUSSION... The frontal passage that has brought a band of snowfall to the I- 80/US-580 corridor overnight will continue a southeastward trend through the morning, leaving snow deposits on area roadways. This morning`s commute will be impacted, and our best advice is to leave early and travel with caution this morning, and frankly that will be decent advice all day. Afternoon highs will remain lower today, with western Nevada valleys ranging in the mid 30s and foothill communities staying below the freezing mark today. This will allow some areas to melt away snow, while others will likely end up shoveling, salting and plowing to eliminate the slippery threat. Bottom line, if you have travel plans today, be prepared for variable road conditions depending on where you may go. Mind your step as you head out the door, walkways, decks and patios will also be a slick surface to contend with. Clearing skies will allow overnight low temperatures to sink to the coldest readings yet this year. Western Nevada valleys will settle into the mid teens to low 20s, and Sierra valleys will be chilled to the single digits. Might be a good day to stay inside and bundle up and let warmer temperatures take hold before coming outdoors. As of Friday, a ridge begins to build in that will introduce warmer air, a drying trend and clear skies. Inversions will build in as light winds also are a feature of this pattern. The weekend will still pack a chill at night as it will take time for the warmth to modify the airmass. The overall pattern of high pressure will remain over the West Coast into next week. Hints of shortwaves riding the periphery of the ridge late next week may contain some weather impacts, but confidence is low on if or how this would affect our area. HRICH AVIATION... * Snow accumulations will affect all terminals, with terrain obscurations. Snow should clear past KRNO/KCXP/KMEV around 12-13z, and will be on it`s way to KMMH. KMMH should see clearing by 15-16z. KTVL may see some snow showers linger behind the front, if a lake effect or lake enhancement takes shape between 12-15z. * Northerly winds will follow the frontal passage, and once the snow declines, the ridges will again gust this afternoon into this evening. For Sierra terminals, winds will be more northeasterly, setting up ridge gusts of 40-50 kts. LLWS will develop along and west of the crest of the Sierra Nevada mountains, but not directly overhead of Sierra terminals KTRK/KTVL/KMMH. HRICH && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 AM PST this morning NVZ002. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning NVZ001. Lake Wind Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning NVZ004. CA...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 AM PST this morning CAZ072. && $$

648 FXUS66 KSTO 082113 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 113 PM PST Thu Jan 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather expected next 7 days with areas of patchy morning fog and cold overnight/morning temperatures through the weekend. - Increasing potential for a return to more widespread Valley fog/low clouds and warm/dry weather at higher elevations into next week. && .DISCUSSION... ...Rest of Today into the Weekend... As the shortwave that brought mountain snow on Wednesday departs the region today, breezy to gusty north winds will continue, gradually decreasing through this evening. This drying wind will work to mitigate most potential for fog development overnight into Friday morning, although some patchy fog may be possible in the San Joaquin Valley where winds look to dissipate sooner. Otherwise, as mostly clear weather persists elsewhere, cold overnight/morning temperatures are anticipated. By Friday AM, teens to 20s are expected above 4500 feet and low temperatures in the 30s at lower elevations, with some Valley locations nearing freezing. While north winds will be lighter on Friday, the weather pattern should remain similar with limited fog development and more widespread cold temperatures overnight Friday into Saturday. Frost development will be possible at low elevations as a result both Friday and Saturday mornings. By the weekend, the upper level pattern then looks to become primarily driven by ridging aloft, ushering in continued dry weather and an overall stagnating surface weather pattern into next week. While the ridging aloft is building over the weekend, patchy Valley fog potential is expected to become more widespread by Sunday morning, to include the southern Sacramento Valley and Delta. Temperatures will begin a gradual climb upward by the late weekend as well. ...Early to Mid Next Week... As the aforementioned building ridge aloft settles in and amplifies over the west coast by next week, a stagnating weather pattern is expected for much of next week. While some details regarding wind and surface moisture will impact the fog development potential, this arriving pattern on the surface will at least be favorable for a return to widespread Valley fog/low clouds and warm/dry weather at higher elevations. Where fog/low clouds do not develop or dissipates earlier in the day, warm, above normal temperatures will be likely given the expected amplitude of the building ridge. && .AVIATION... Generally VFR conditions expected to prevail next 24 hours at TAF sites, although some MVFR/IFR possible in patchy BR/FG at SCK and MOD after 08z Friday. Stronger north winds expected across the region throughout the day, with sustained winds 15-20 kts and gusts 25-30 kts possible much of the day, then gradually decreasing after 00z Friday. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

951 FXUS65 KMSO 082042 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 142 PM MST Thu Jan 8 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Travel Impacts Through Friday: Expect periodic snow-covered mountain passes (Lookout, Lolo, Marias) and brief periods of low visibility and a quick 1-2 inches of snow in some valleys through tonight. - Ridge Building This Weekend: Drier weather and warming temperatures aloft will move in Saturday. This pattern typically traps cold air in the valleys, leading to persistent fog and potential air stagnation by early next week. - Complex System Monday-Tuesday: A surge of elevated moisture will move into the region from the northwest. While this will bring rain and snow, the combination of warm air aloft and trapped cold air in the valleys may cause mixed precipitation, including freezing rain. A weather disturbance is moving through the region today, keeping snow showers across western Montana and north-central Idaho. The atmosphere is becoming more unstable this afternoon, which means snow showers are more convective and aligning into snow bands. These bands can be hard to track but may drop a quick inch of snow in a short amount of time, briefly lowering visibility and covering roads even in the lower valleys. Total accumulations through Friday will generally remain light (trace-2 inches for most valleys), but mountain passes could see higher totals of 4-6 inches. Temperatures will remain seasonably cool, keeping snow levels at the valley floors. The overall weather pattern shifts significantly this weekend. A strong ridge of high pressure will move over the Northern Rockies on Saturday and likely persist through the middle of next week. The most challenging part of the forecast arrives Monday into Tuesday. While high pressure usually brings dry weather, forecast models suggest a "dirty ridge" pattern, where clouds and moisture move through an area of high pressure. A stream of well-above normal moisture (200-250% of normal) is expected to move over the ridge and dive into western Montana and north-central Idaho from the northwest. As temperatures a few thousand feet above the ground warm significantly, snow levels are expected to rise to 5,000-6,000 feet. While this would normally mean rain for the valleys, there is a catch: if the layers of cold air trapped in the valleys from the weekend (inversions) remain in place, the cold air at the surface may not be pushed out easily. This creates a messy wintry mix in the valleys before eventually changing to rain. Current forecasts show light amounts. However, these "overrunning" systems, where warm, moist air flows over a layer of cold air, are notorious for producing more moisture than models initially predict. We are watching for the potential for higher precipitation totals than currently advertised. && .AVIATION... Scattered snow showers and bands will continue to impact the region through Friday morning bringing brief, periodic reductions in ceilings and visibilities. Winds will become increasingly northwesterly heading into Friday (ridgetops 30-40 knots) with the potential for any heavier showers or bands to mix these winds down to the surface as gusts. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

990 FXUS65 KBOI 082143 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 243 PM MST Thu Jan 8 2026 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night...Cool and unstable northwest flow continues through Friday. Breezy west to northwest winds this afternoon will slowly subside overnight. Enough instability remains for snow showers over the mountains this afternoon and again on Friday, with flurries possible in the valleys through this evening. Conditions dry out on Friday as a ridge builds across the Western US. Temperatures will be near normal today, moderating a few degrees each day as the ridge develops. .LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...Little update from previous forecasts, a ridge continues to build over the region through the long term. Conditions will be dry with a near zero percent chance for precipitation. The high pressure will support inversion development, keeping air stagnant and making fog and stratus likely each morning. Monday through Tuesday, the storm track north of the area just clips are area enough to bring a 10% chance of precipitation from showers to the far northern reaches of our CWA. The high pressure amplifies to a closed high on Wednesday, then shifts from northern California to the Pacific Northwest coast. This evolution of the high will not only push exacerbate dry and inverted conditions, but will also set up an omega block pattern heading into late next week. && .AVIATION...Mainly VFR with isolated MVFR-IFR snow showers lingering in SW ID and over high terrain. Patchy fog and low stratus is possible in sheltered valleys Friday morning, the same time that showers dissipate. Mountains obscured in precipitation and low clouds. Surface winds: W-NW 10-20 kt with gusts to 30 kt except NW 15-25 kt with gusts 30-40 kt in Magic Valley. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: N-NW 20-35 kt. KBOI...VFR with lower clouds near the foothills. A 10% chance of light snow showers this afternoon, unlikely to drop below VFR. Surface winds W-NW 10-15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Weekend Outlook...Mostly VFR with clear skies on Saturday and increasing clouds on Sunday. Localized LIFR-IFR conditions in patchy morning fog in sheltered valleys on Saturday. Generally variable surface winds less than 10 kt. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...KA LONG TERM....JM AVIATION.....JM

299 FXUS65 KLKN 082001 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1201 PM PST Thu Jan 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1154 AM PST Thu Jan 8 2026 * Snow showers exit the area by this evening. * Quiet weather returns as persistent high pressure builds into the area by this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Thursday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Snow showers will exit by this evening, being replaced by ridging due to a Rex Block strengthening along the southern California coast. This is shaping up to be a very persistent, stubborn pattern as the block and associated ridging are forecast to persist through at least mid next week. Local impacts will be characterized by dry conditions and warming temperatures. High temperatures across the area are expected to be around ten degrees above normal by Monday and there are some initial signs of near or record high temperatures by the end of next week. Winds are also expected to remain light while the block persists. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence in Rex Block development and persistence through next week and the associated warming temperatures and lack of precipitation. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions are forecast to be the primary flight conditions through Friday, as upper level trough exits the region. Snow showers will be possible through this evening for KTPH and KELY, with possible drops in flight conditions to MVFR or IFR levels for short period of time should a shower affect a terminal. Winds will also remain elevated out of the NW at 10KT to 20KT with gusts up to 35KT possible. High pressure builds in for Friday with clearing skies and lighter winds. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon NVZ031-034-037>039. && $$ DISCUSSION...94 AVIATION...98