287 FXUS66 KSEW 182048 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 148 PM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Weak troughing aloft is moving toward the northeast, allowing high pressure to resume for the first half of the week. This will lead to much above normal temperatures and widespread areas of Moderate to locally Major HeatRisk levels. A pattern change is possible Thursday into Friday, with the potential for another round of monsoonal moisture reaching the area. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure is actively moving off to the northeast, allowing for the ridge to build into the Northwest through the first half of the week. Temperatures tomorrow will be in the upper 70s to low 80s, climbing to the mid to upper 80s by Monday. This corresponds to widespread Moderate HeatRisk on Monday, especially from the Seattle Metro area southward into Olympia and the Chehalis Valley. Very light winds going offshore temporarily in the afternoon will lead to very dry conditions over the next several days. The coast will see marine stratus clouds tomorrow morning, with an increasingly limited eastward extent over the next several days as high pressure returns. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The pattern is consistent with the ridge remaining the dominant feature in the region through the middle of the week. Temperatures climb into the upper 80s to low 90s on Tuesday, and then remain in the low 90s on Wednesday. Major HeatRisk values will be centered on typical urban heat islands, including the Bellevue area (60-65% chance of Major HeatRisk) and portions of south King County (50-60% chance of Major HeatRisk). Moderate HeatRisk levels return by Thursday, but the weather pattern beyond Wednesday seems a bit uncertain. Models are generally divergent on the solutions where some bring another influx of monsoonal moisture into the state and others keep the high pressure in place. This will be something that is monitored as more clarity evolves as the potential for additional lightning starts is still a risk after another round of hot and dry conditions. Right now, temperatures are forecast to begin falling late in the week and into next weekend. 21 && .AVIATION... West/northwest flow continues as a trough exits southern British Columbia. VFR conditions continue across the area with scattered cumulus prevailing across most of western Washington. Cloud coverage should slowly decrease through the rest of the afternoon and into tonight with VFR conditions continuing through tonight. Low stratus will redevelop along the coast late tonight and slowly push inland early Sunday morning. Stratus will get close to the Seattle metro area; there is a 25-30% chance of seeing MVFR or lower conditions between around 13-17Z Sun. Stratus should give way to VFR conditions again late Sunday morning. Winds are currently in progress of switching from west/southwest to north and should be there by tonight. Winds become light and variable overnight before north winds resume during the day Sunday. KSEA...VFR conditions this afternoon will continue overnight. MVFR to IFR conditions expected to return around 12-13Z Sun as stratus pushes back inland. Expect ceilings to lift and scatter after 17-19Z Sun with a return to VFR conditions. West winds will become north this evening, easing below 5 kt overnight. North winds 5-10 kt expected during the day Sunday. 62 && .MARINE... The overall pattern remains steady with high pressure centered offshore with lower pressure over land. This will maintain northwesterly winds over the coastal waters. Wind speeds will pick up tonight and through much of Sunday which will bring marginal Small Craft Advisory winds to the outer waters, but this will allow seas to pick up and become steep, with 6-8 ft seas at around 8 seconds. Winds and seas ease Sunday night, and winds look to remain light and seas below 6 ft through much of the week. An onshore push is expected late this afternoon and into tonight, bringing Small Craft Advisory winds through the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Onshore gradients will ease through the early part of next week as thermally-induced low pressure develops across western Washington and Oregon. Stronger onshore flow and pushes down the Strait look to resume in the latter half of the week. 62 && .FIRE WEATHER... Another period of hot and dry weather will increase fire weather concerns throughout the first half of the week. Temperatures climbing back into the upper 80s and low 90s with relative humidity values the drop into the 20 percent range are expected through Wednesday. While wind does not look to be a considerable factor in the elevated conditions, there will be periods of weak offshore flow that can still act to dry out the environment and make fuels more receptive. Beyond Wednesday, the pattern will need to be monitored as there is a suggestion of another influx of monsoonal moisture that could lead to another round of thunderstorms late in the week. Details on this will evolve throughout the first half of the week. 21 && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM PDT Sunday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT Sunday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm. && $$

790 FXUS66 KPQR 182042 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 142 PM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026 .SYNOPSIS...A steady warming trend will continue through the weekend as high pressure strengthens across the region. Inland temperatures will rise into the 80s this weekend, then into the upper 80s to mid 90s early next week. Hot and dry weather is expected to persist through at least midweek, with increasing heat impacts possible across the interior lowlands. && .DISCUSSION...Tonight through Friday...A synoptic scale pattern shift continues through the weekend and into next week. High pressure over The Great Basin will continue to strengthen resulting in a warming and drying trend across the CWA through at least the middle of next week. While high pressure will build in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, onshore (north/northwest) flow will persist near the surface and provide some temperature mitigation, or in simpler terms: Onshore flow will help to keep the region slightly cooler. Even with onshore flow, inland temperatures will warm day by day, while coastal areas remain noticeably cooler, but still experience a warming trend even with the persistent onshore flow. Sunday, most inland locations are expected to reach the mid 80s to low 90s. Along the coast, highs will remain relatively cooler, with daytime highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Higher elevations will will see daytime highs in the upper 70s to upper Monday through Wednesday, The Great Basin ridge is expected to peak in strength. This is resulting in high confidence in Monday`s forecast, with interior lowland highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. The coast will have highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s, with higher elevations having highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s. Tuesday and Wednesday, uncertainty grows significantly. The majority of the uncertainty can be tied to two features within the eastern Pacific. The first id a low off the California coast, which could drive some monsoonal moisture into the region. The second feature is what tropical moisture remains from Tropical Storm Elida, which is currently centered near 19.45 N/-123.57 W, which places it southwest of the Baja Peninsula. TS Elida, is forecasted to weaken through the early part of next week as it continues to push northward into the central and northeastern Pacific. So, with all that in mind, even modest increases in cloud cover or moisture could easily influence afternoon temperatures and is reflected in ensemble guidance as well as WPC 500 mb clusters, which show a fairly even spread between the four different clusters through the middle of next week. Despite that uncertainty, the overall message remains the same: Tuesday and Wednesday still appear likely to be the hottest days of the period for many inland locations. Probabilistic guidance continues to support a moderate to high chance of 90-degree temperatures across much of the interior lowlands, with the higher odds on Tuesday and Wednesday. There is also a meaningful chance (20-30% chance on Monday, 30-50% chance on Tuesday and Wednesday) that some of the traditionally warmer valleys push into the mid 90s. With several consecutive hot afternoons and only limited overnight cooling, Moderate HeatRisk appears increasingly likely for portions of the interior lowlands, especially for those without effective cooling or for anyone spending extended time outdoors. There is also a lower-end chance (15-35%) for pockets of Major HeatRisk if temperatures end up on the warmer side of the forecast envelope. By Thursday and Friday, guidance still favors a slight easing of the heat as the two, aforementioned systems, combined broader upper-level low coming from the Gulf of Alaska, will help to push The Great Basin high eastward. Even with a pattern change for the latter part of next week, daytime highs look to remain a few degrees above normal for late July. /42 && .AVIATION...Southwest to westerly flow aloft continues through the TAF period as an upper low moves through British Columbia. Predominately VFR conditions across the airspace. Another marine push is expected tonight into tomorrow morning. MVFR/IFR cigs expected to form along the coast again, initially near KAST by 04-06z Sun, spreading south to KONP by 08-12z Sun. Additionally, there`s a 35-45% chance of MVFR ceilings developing between 10-14z Sun inland stretching from the Portland metro to KSLE, including KPDX and KTTD. Any lowered flight conditions are expected to improve to VFR by 18-21z Sun. Expect north to northwest winds to 8-12 kts inland, up to 15 kts along the coast with gusts up to 20-25 kts. Winds decrease less than 8 kts by 06-09z Sun. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Predominately VFR conditions through the TAF period. There is a 30-45% chance of MVFR CIGs 12-18z Sun. Northwest winds around 8-12 kt with occasional gusts up to 20 kt, decreasing after 04-06z Sun. -03 && .MARINE...A typical summertime pattern will continue through early next week with persistent north to northwest winds over the coastal waters. Winds will be strongest during the afternoon and evening hours each day, especially through weekend for the waters south of Cape Falcon. Expect wind gusts up to 25 kt over the central and southern waters this weekend, with seas becoming steep on Sunday due to a fresh northwest swell around 6-7 ft at 7-8 seconds. By Sunday afternoon, these gusty winds and steep seas will expand into the waters north of Cape Falcon. Between the increasing winds and steepening seas, conditions will become hazardous to small craft. As such, Small Craft Advisories are in effect from Saturday afternoon through late Sunday. Winds decrease below 20 kts early Monday morning, with seas becoming less steep through the day Monday as the swell decreases. Benign conditions expected Tuesday into late next week. && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 2 AM PDT Monday for PZZ251-271. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM PDT Monday for PZZ252-272-273. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Monday for PZZ253. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

114 FXUS66 KMFR 182110 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 210 PM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Fire weather conditions this afternoon and evening just shy of critical thresholds of wind and humidity in much the same portions of the area that did reach those levels yesterday. This includes the Shasta Valley, eastern Siskiyou, Modoc, southeast Klamath and southwest Lake Counties. * Hot, very dry, breezy, and unstable conditions will continue this weekend. * Smoke will persist for Jackson, Klamath, and Siskiyou counties through the weekend, with some temporary afternoon into early evening improvement expected for Klamath and Siskiyou counties. Also, an influx of smoke into Lake County from fires in central Oregon. * Thunderstorms re-enter the forecast beginning as early as Monday, mainly for the Cascades and east side. The highest risk will be on Tuesday and Wednesday, including lesser chances for areas west of the Cascades. && .DISCUSSION...The general weather pattern will continue again this afternoon with warm, dry, breezy, and unstable conditions across southern Oregon and northern California. Satellite imagery is showing some coastal stratus dissipating near Brookings. A few cumulus are being observed northeast of Crater Lake and across the Warners eastward in Modoc and Lake Counties. There is some smoke from the East Evans Creek Fire funneling into the Rogue Valley. While there may be some brief improvement this afternoon, expect smoke to return again this evening. Sunday will be generally a repeat of today with weaker winds. By Sunday night and continuing into Monday, a plume of monsoonal moisture aloft will bring high clouds into the area. This could generate a few showers, mainly over the higher terrain, but most of any showers would evaporate before reaching the ground. Weak instability on Monday afternoon is expected to generate a few thunderstorms with a focus on the Cascades into northern Klamath County. On Tuesday into Wednesday, southerly flow aloft is expected between a trough offshore tracking northward and the persistent ridge over the Great Basin. There is more uncertainty in the convective forecast. But also, more potential for a significant amount of thunderstorms as well as a potential for activity on the west side. A larger portion of the suite of ensemble members does indicate a majority of activity from the Cascades eastward and isolated rather than scattered coverage. It would be of note that the storms could be mixed wet and dry on Monday, but trend wetter over time. Precipitable Waters would be around 200% of normal, and this could cause some significant rain in thunderstorms. Model uncertainty increases another notch on Thursday, but the region of instability is likely to shift east-northeastward. This could bring another day of thunderstorm activity to the east side, or shift the activity east and northeast out of area. For Friday into Saturday, the pattern has some resemblance to the current picture. This would result in a dry forecast, but a slow moving dry front would also produce enhanced afternoon and evening winds, strongest on the east side. && .AVIATION...18/18Z TAFs...Gusty winds will develop again this afternoon, strongest along the coast, in the Shasta Valley and east of the Cascades. VFR skies will prevail across most of the area through the TAF period. One exception will be impacts from wildfire smoke that will bring periods of MVFR visibilities and/or ceilings to the Rogue Valley, Klamath Basin, and Shasta Valley including Medford, Klamath Falls, and Montague. Smoke from central Oregon fires will also impact Lake County, including Lakeview. The other exception will be marine stratus along the coast and offshore as LIFR and IFR ceilings and visibilities return this evening to coastal locations. && .MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Saturday, July 18, 2026...Gusty north winds will continue with steep seas to very steep seas through Sunday evening. Strongest winds and very steep seas are expected from Port Orford south beyond 5 nm from shore. Steep, short period seas and areas of gusty winds will linger across the waters Sunday night into Monday. Seas will transition on Monday from wave dominated to fresh swell. Conditions gradually improve late Monday and Monday night. Further improvement follows Tuesday into Wednesday. Low pressure may move up from the south late Tuesday and Wednesday but is expected to remain well offshore. && .FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM PDT Saturday, July 18, 2026... The three main aspects of the fire weather forecast for the next week are: first, the extent of hot, dry, and breezy/windy conditions today through Sunday, second, the potential risk and coverage of thunderstorms while inland temperatures remain above normal during Monday through Thursday, and lastly, a likely transition to dry and slightly cooler weather late next week that would likely be accompanied by stronger than normal east side westerly winds. The forecast through Sunday is consistent and pretty straight- forward. Hot temperatures at 5 to 10 degrees above normal will continue to trend slightly upward, humidities will remain significantly drier than normal, and breezy afternoon winds will trend just slightly weaker today than yesterday, before returning to typical strength for Sunday afternoon. The slight moistening of the air mass on Sunday will be accompanied by a late day increase of high clouds, and perhaps some east side cumulus buildups. Instability could develop as early as late Sunday night into Monday morning, with a few very light showers or virga possible over the higher terrain. A slight chance risk of thunderstorms is expected Monday afternoon, with the highest probability of thunderstorms over the Cascades. Then, on Tuesday and Wednesday, there is a greater uncertainty regarding the area of focus, but also a greater concern that both a significant amount of lightning may develop and coverage may include the west side...east of the Coast Range. For now, the NBM forecast is utilized with a slight chance of mainly east side thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday. Also to be mentioned is that there is the possibility that with the modified tropical moisture influx in addition to the monsoonal influx of moisture, these storms will become wetter over time. Late in the week (Thursday/Friday), some eastward movement in the pattern is likely, which is likely to shift the region of instability east of our area. But, a plausible, slower solution would keep instability and some slight thunderstorm risk over eastern portions of Lake and Modoc counties. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Hazardous Seas Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ356-376. && $$

372 FXUS66 KEKA 180727 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 1227 AM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026 KEY MESSAGES... * Warmer temperatures are expected this weekend bringing minor to moderate HeatRisk. * Possible showers and thunderstorms across the interior next week. && .SYNOPSIS...Above normal temperatures return to the interior this weekend. Monsoonal moisture returns Sunday into early next week, bringing chances of showers and thunderstorms early to mid next week. && .DISCUSSION...An upper level low off the Pacific Northwest coast continues to move northeast into British Columbia. High pressure rebuilds over the area as the trough moves eastward. Above normal interior temperatures return today as high pressure strengthens, with most interior valleys seeing high temperatures in the 90s to just over 100. Minor to locally moderate HeatRisk is expected. Slight northerly flow at the surface could bring some smoke from fires in southern Oregon to Trinity County, but southerly flow aloft is likely to keep most out of the area. Starting Sunday night into Monday, monsoonal moisture is anticipated to make it`s way north and west into the area. While moisture aloft will likely be plentiful, instability looks limited, at least initially. A few showers may be possible with this first pulse of moisture Monday morning, but dry low levels will prevent much of this from reaching the ground. Midweek has the best chance to see some thunderstorms with moisture from the remnants of what is currently Tropical Storm Elida possibly moving into the area. This will need to be monitored closely, as some long-range ensemble members show these remnants close to shore. /JB && .AVIATION...(6Z TAFs)...Stratus has returned over or very near the coastal terminals. IFR ceilings are likely at the coastal terminals, with visibility reductions possible near sunrise. Some lifting and brief scattering is possible, but stratus is likely to be slightly more persistent today than previous days. NBM only shows around a 50% chance of skies clearing at both ACV and CEC. Ceilings may lift to IFR to MVFR, however, by the afternoon. Interior areas are likely to remain VFR for the next 24 hours. /JB && .MARINE...Northerly winds remain elevated in the outer waters and in the lee of Cape Mendocino. Winds gradually ease, especially nearshore today and Sunday. By Monday afternoon, peak gusts of 10-20 kts are expected across all waters. Light to moderate winds are expected for much of the week. Seas remain characterized mainly by wind waves and small mid to long period northwesterly and southerly swells. Steep seas will slowly ease in the outer waters this weekend and be relatively mild by Monday. A larger southerly swell, peaking at 4-5 ft from Tropical Storm Elida arrives Monday and continues for much of the week. With relatively light northerly winds, seas could be dominated by this swell. This could create some larger breakers than usual on the southern facing beaches, especially south of Cape Mendocino. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for PZZ455. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Monday for PZZ470-475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

750 FXUS66 KMTR 182035 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 135 PM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 120 PM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026 - Near or slightly below normal temperatures and higher humidity through the first half of the upcoming week. - The marine layer and mid to upper level cloud cover will continue to help keep temperatures cooler under building high pressure. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 120 PM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026 (This evening through Sunday night) Stratus retreated back to the immediate coastline by late this morning. A few spots from Pacifica south to Monterey may only see partial clearing through mid-afternoon. A slightly stronger marine layer (~1500-2000ft) across the North Bay valleys has temperatures running 5-10 degrees cooler than this time yesterday, so have adjusted todays highs there about 3-5 degrees cooler from the NBM. The onset of a relatively normal diurnal intrusion of the marine layer this evening will occur with a similarly normal exit Sunday morning. Patchy coastal and valley fog is most likely across the North Bay with little to no impacts expected. A weak fetch of offshore flow/thermal belting at 925MB will keep overnight lows at higher elevations over the East Bay Hills and Santa Lucias well above normal with poor overnight RH recovery. Light winds will help mitigate fire weather concerns somewhat, but any ignition could spread quickly on steep slopes. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 120 PM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026 (Monday through next Friday) Temperatures will be near or below normal through the extended forecast with Tuesday being the warmest day of the week despite building high pressure. The marine layer influence, especially for the Bay Area and North Bay, will help to keep temperatures close to or below normal. Not much change to the expected push of monsoonal/tropical moisture from the south as Elida tracks north after becoming extratropical. PWATS near 2.0" and 150%-200% of normal are expected to peak Tuesday afternoon. Attm slight H50 height rises and anemic mid-level lapse rates less than 7C/km indicate a low probability of elevated convection (and dry lightning potential) developing. However, mid-level cloud cover spreading east from the remnants of Elida over the EPAC will further help to keep temperatures in check for the first half of the week, including Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1045 AM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Improving flight categories are forecast at all terminals with VFR anticipated at most terminals (except KHAF) in the next 1-2 hours. There is high confidence in this transpiring. MVFR to IFR is anticipated to return this evening and into the pre-dawn hours on Sunday. Confidence in the onset time is medium. Confidence in MVFR at SJC and LVK is relatively lower, compared to other terminals, but model consensus does favor at least a few hours of MVFR. There are chances for LIFR ceilings/visibility at SNS and APC, however, the depth of the marine layer may be sufficient to mitigate this threat. Trends will be monitored as the potential is non-zero. VFR will return late morning/early Sunday afternoon. Vicinity of SFO...VFR currently with MVFR returning this evening due to a marine layer push. East to variable winds at the start of the TAF period are anticipated to become more WNW`ly by 20Z today. Gusts as great as 25 knots are advertised with medium to high confidence. Confidence in the onset of MVFR cigs around 03Z Sunday is medium and there could be impacts to the evening push. Some model guidance advertises IFR ceilings, but confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF at this time. VFR is anticipated to return mid-morning Sunday. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR this afternoon with MVFR/IFR ceilings returning quickly, near or just after 00Z Sunday. There is some potential for IFR visibility, however, the threat seems too low to include in the TAF at this time. There`s a chance that VFR may return before the end of the current TAF period (17Z Sunday), but for now will opt for simplicity given the range in the TAF. && .MARINE... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 1045 AM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Moderate to fresh northwesterly breezes will prevail over the weekend, diminishing to become moderate by next week. Moderate seas will also prevail. Moderate southerly swell will increase from tropical cyclone activity across the eastern Pacific through next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 120 PM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Cooler than normal temperatures with assistance from onshore flow and relatively normal diurnal intrusion of the marine layer will continue through the weekend into next week. RH recovery will be excellent for coastal areas and valleys, and moderate to good farther inland. However weak offshore flow/thermal belting will result in poor RH for higher elevations, especially above 1500- 2000ft across the East Bay Hills and Santa Lucias. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...Bain MARINE...Bain Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

381 FXUS66 KOTX 181818 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1118 AM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and breezy conditions across the region today with elevated or critical fire weather. - Remaining dry into next week with a warming trend. Temperatures push toward the 90s to near 100 by Tuesday. - More unsettled mid to late week with an increased risk for lightning. && .SYNOPSIS... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions today with dry and breezy winds. Winds will subside across the region tonight and remain lighter through much of next week. Temperatures will begin to climb next week with some areas potentially seeing Major HeatRisk by Tuesday. Increasing moisture in the mid to late week timeframe may bring an elevated threat of thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Saturday through Sunday: A mid/upper level trough will slide E-NE across southern British Columbia today, reaching southern Alberta by this evening. This feature will cause a weak dry cold front through the region with breezy winds creating an elevated to marginally critical fire weather environment across the Inland NW. In this respect, concerns are greatest across the Waterville Plateau and into western portions of the Colville Reservation and Columbia Basin where gusts in the 20-30mph range are most likely to overlap with min RHs in the teens to low 20s. While it appears unlikely, short-fused expansions of the current RFW covering the Waterville Plateau and Colville Reservation into surrounding zones to the south and east remains a possibility depending on how surface conditions evolve throughout the day. Otherwise, out ahead of the front within the warm sector, some measure of convection is expected to form though currently CAMs indicate this activity remaining south and east of Shoshone County and the CWA border. Will also need to monitor this closely through the afternoon. Winds will subside across eastern WA and much of north ID after sundown this evening but remain breezy through the Cascade gaps and in the north-central valleys through early Sunday. Another shortwave trough will then pivot southward across B.C. Sunday, with models forecasting this secondary wave to be in a similar spot to where the first wave was 24 hour prior. This second wave is not expected to be as progressive as the first with winds remaining much lighter as compared to Saturday. Daytime high temps across central WA will likely warm about 5-10 degrees compared to Saturday, though be similar across eastern WA and north ID with a mix of upper 80s and low 90s. Monday through next Saturday: The strong monsoonal ridge across the Intermountain West will bring gradual height rises across the Inland Northwest Monday through at least Tuesday as troughing deepens off the Pacific Coast. Uncertainty grows with increasing forecast range in how this pattern will evolve as the troughing pattern attempts to spread inland, but LREF clusters maintain high confidence above normal temperatures through at least Thursday. Widespread Moderate HeatRisk can be expected in this timeframe with moderate chances for areas of Major HeatRisk, especially Tue/Wed. A large unknown here will be the amount of wildfire smoke present, which will be sensitive to prevailing wind directions and shifts through the week. This smoke could block some of the incoming shortwave radiation from the sun and lower overall temperatures. Will also have to keep an eye on the increasing monsoonal moisture in this timeframe as EC ensembles have PWAT anomalies climbing to 125% - 175% across SE WA and the southern ID Panhandle. If verified, this would carry an increasing threat for lightning through the end of the week. && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: VFR will prevail through the 18z TAF cycle. Breezy southwesterly winds are expected through the afternoon hours across eastern Washington and north Idaho (KGEG/KSFF/KCOE). West-northwesterly winds will be found on the leeward side of the Blue Mountains (KPUW/KLWS) and further west into the Columbia Basin and near the Cascades (KMWH/KEAT). The southwesterly winds and northwesterlies near the Blues will subside this evening while remaining elevated further west through tonight. Overall lighter wind speeds expected for Sunday. Skies will remain generally cloudy free at the TAF sites through Sunday, though wildfire smoke will likely be present in some form. Projections from the HRRR/RRFS indicate that KPUW and KLWS stand the best chance for temporary MVFR vsbys with FU through this evening, and at KGEG/KSFF/KCOE Sunday afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Moderate confidence in VFR vsbys prevailing at KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KEAT/KMWH. Low to moderate confidence in wildfire smoke impacting vsbys at KPUW/KLWS. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 89 56 89 56 92 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 89 57 88 59 93 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 86 50 85 52 89 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 96 61 94 62 96 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 88 51 91 54 93 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 87 54 86 55 91 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 86 55 84 56 89 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 91 55 92 59 95 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 89 62 92 67 94 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 92 58 93 64 96 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Air Quality Alert until 9 AM PDT Sunday for Moses Lake Area- Northeast Mountains-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin- Washington Palouse. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706). ID...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for Central Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area-Northern Panhandle. && $$

940 FXUS66 KPDT 182030 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 130 PM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Hot, dry and windy conditions today through Kittitas Valley and Lower Columbia Basin of Oregon * RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH 10 PM TODAY* 2. Dry and warm conditions will continue through Tuesday 3. Pattern shift midweek will bring monsoonal moisture back to the region with chances of thunderstorms && .DISCUSSION... Current satellite shows some cumulus clouds over the Wallowa Valley currently with no other clouds across the region. Hazy skies will persist through the day from the surrounding fires and an Air Advisory in effect for southeastern OR and Wallowa Valley through Monday. An upper level shortwave disturbance is passing over the region just to the north of the area tightening the gradients across the Cascades. Breezy to windy conditions expected through the Cascades Gaps, and along the Lower Columbia Basin of Oregon. Winds coupled with very low relative humidities, a Red Flag Warning has been issued through 10PM for Kittitas Valley and the low Columbia Basin of Oregon due to low humidities and winds of 20-25 mph gusting to 30 mph with high confidence (80-90%). Once the shortwave passes, southwest flow will return ushering dry and warm conditions. By Wednesday, models are in decent agreement and show a slight pattern shift with the upper level ridge shifting towards the Four Corners and advecting some monsoonal moisture up into the region. Clusters show the main difference to be mainly with the amplitude of the ridge. NBM raw ensembles show Wednesday to have 40% chance of thunderstorms through Deschutes and Grant counties after 2 PM. Looking at soundings show CAPE values over 350 J/kg, lapse rates 8.5- 9 C/km, effective bulk shear of 20-25 kts and LIs of -4 and PWATs of 0.05-1.0 inches. NBM QPF shows these storms to be more on the drier side with less than 10% chance of a wetting rain. Will continue to monitor as the event draws closer. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... VFR conditions currently across all sites, which will stay the course through the period. However, KPDT/KALW/KRDM/KBDN may drop briefly to MVFR due to reduced visibilities caused by smoke from nearby wildfires. KDLS/KPDT/KRDM/KBDN will also experience breezy winds this afternoon as gusts of 18-25kts are expected. 75 && .FIRE WEATHER... A Red Flag Warning has been issues for Kittitas Valley and the Lower Columbia Basin of Oregon for low relative humidities and breezy winds through 10 PM tonight. Relative humidities in Kittitas are expected to reach as low 15% with winds of 20-25 mph and gusts to 30 mph while the Lower Columbia Basin of Oregon will see relative humidities as low as 17% and winds 10-20 gusting to 30 mph. With the fires already on the ground, this can lead to elevated fire spread and any new fires will spread quickly. The next timeframe of concern is Wednesday when there is a 40% chance of thunderstorms moving into the region. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 55 91 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 61 93 64 95 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 57 93 61 95 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 57 94 63 95 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 59 94 62 94 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 54 91 59 93 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 49 93 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 54 94 59 94 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 54 96 60 94 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 59 96 65 96 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM PDT this evening for WAZ690. OR...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM PDT this evening for ORZ691. Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for ORZ050-502-503-505- 506-508. && $$ DISCUSSION...90 AVIATION...75 FIRE WEATHER...90

317 FXUS65 KREV 182123 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 223 PM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Elevated fire weather concerns linger this afternoon in northeast CA and northwest NV with breezy winds and low humidity. * Seasonably warm conditions and areas of increased cloud cover prevail through this weekend with isolated showers and thunderstorms near the Eastern Sierra each afternoon. * Periods of monsoonal moisture will keep shower and thunderstorm chances with potential for localized heavy rain next week. Best overall storm chances favor Monday afternoon through Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... A swath of thicker mid to high level cloud cover overnight through this morning brought spotty light rain showers and isolated lightning to parts of northeast CA, with streaks of virga also seen outside our windows earlier today. The subtle shortwave aloft that produced this more extensive cloud deck was not resolved very well with yesterday`s higher resolution guidance. For the rest of today, overall cloud cover from US-50 northward will decrease, with a short period of drier conditions dropping humidity to between 12-16% in northeast CA and far northwest NV. Afternoon breezes with gusts to 25 mph in these areas will produce a few hours of elevated fire weather concerns until sunset. South of US-50, a small area of instability leaves open a window for isolated showers and short-lived t-storms (up to 15% chance) mainly between 3-8 PM for parts of Mono, Mineral and Lyon counties. Overnight into Sunday morning, another stream of increased moisture returns to northeast CA, bringing another chance of light rain showers near or after daybreak through late morning. Also given the few lightning strikes that occurred earlier today in eastern Lassen County, there`s a 10% or less chance for a few strikes again around 18Z Sunday, but focusing toward the western parts of Lassen County. For the rest of Sunday through Sunday night, low to mid level S-SE flow and the southward drift of the high pressure ridge from the Rockies to the Four Corners region bring a gradual expansion of deeper monsoonal moisture. This could bring a bit more favorable setup for isolated PM showers and t-storms again across the eastern Sierra of Mono County eastward to adjacent parts of southern Lyon and Mineral counties. However, the confidence is relatively low as the higher resolution guidance scenarios are not all on board with the instability being sufficient to support storm cell growth. If the cloud cover becomes too widespread after the initial storms form, we could see a relatively quick transition to lighter rain showers for Sunday evening and night as this activity moves north and west. Overall we only have chances for measurable rain at less than 10% through Sunday night, but passing sprinkles could occur across nearly any portion of western NV/northeast CA. The monsoonal moisture push still appears to peak from Monday afternoon through Tuesday with increased risk for greater shower and t-storm coverage. For Monday the best instability and potential for showers and t-storms currently favors areas south of US-50, although isolated storms could extend farther north across western NV into Monday evening with lighter showers extending overnight. Tuesday is where the concerns increase for more widespread rainfall affecting a greater extent of eastern CA-western NV, slower storm motions, abundant moisture and pockets of instability to hold the shower/storm activity together. This could be a similar outcome as last Monday when more areas got wet, although the overdeveloping cloud scenario continues to lurk as the PW values push above 1" in much of the region. At this time, we`re giving an early heads-up notice for potential localized flash flood risks peaking on Tuesday. Later in the week and into next weekend, the monsoon push appears to be gradually shifting eastward with storm risks decreasing initially for northeast CA Wednesday and then northwest NV southward across Tahoe and far western NV including the Reno- Carson vicinity from Thursday onward. However, this has been fluctuating with each day`s guidance and the shower/storm chances could hang on longer, especially in west central NV along and east of US-95 and southward to Mono County. MJD && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected this weekend for all area terminals, with periods of increased mid-high level cloud cover through Sunday. SW-W wind gusts this afternoon and Sunday mainly 15-20 kt except 20-25 kt at KRNO starting a bit later compared to recent days (after 22Z) then winding down between 03-05Z. A few showers may develop near KMMH each afternoon today and Sunday but only 10-15% chance of lightning within 5 NM of the terminal site. For the early part of next week, shower and t-storm chances increase mainly south of US-50 Monday, with best overall chances at the main terminals on Tuesday. Impacts may include locally heavy rainfall, more frequent lightning and outflow gusts of 30+ kt. MJD && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$

381 FXUS66 KSTO 181912 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1212 PM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated fire weather concerns in the northern Sacramento Valley into the adjacent northeastern foothills this afternoon and evening. - Chances for monsoonal moisture and thunderstorms Sunday into midweek next week. && .DISCUSSION... Mostly clear skies throughout the day, with breezy conditions at times as south to southwesterly flow remains in place aloft across California. Breezy winds combined with low relative humidity values in the northern Sacramento Valley to adjacent northeastern foothills brings elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon and evening. Conditions improve after the sun sets and conditions cool off. There is a slight chance for an isolated shower or storm along the Sierra Crest south of Highway 50 this evening. However, the instability, moisture, and lift are closer toward Nevada and into areas south of the forecast region. Otherwise, expect more seasonal temperatures today, with highs in the 90s across the area. Delta winds increase this evening helping to cool off parts of the northern San Joaquin Valley and southern Sacramento Valley near sunset. Monsoonal moisture returns to the region Sunday, with PWATS increasing across parts of California. Current HIRES guidance has isolated shower and thunderstorm chances within the Sierra Sunday morning, with potential for further development in the northern Sacramento Valley towards the southern Cascades, Coastal Range, and northeastern Sierra by the afternoon. Confidence in morning activity within the Sierra is higher, due to more upper level lift and instability. During the afternoon/evening and overnight hours confidence is lower due to the lack of lift across the northern forecast area and diminished elevated instability after morning isolated storms. Guidance has struggled on the development any thunderstorm or even shower development. Chances are around 10 percent for areas in the northern Sacramento Valley toward the adjacent higher terrain Sunday afternoon/evening and overnight. Majority of the shower and thunderstorms that develop will be wet, but a few may be dry. Continued monsoonal moisture Monday through mid next week, with thunderstorm chances predominantly in the afternoon and evening hours within the Sierra. We will monitor the chance for any dry thunderstorm during this time, but right now confidence is low. Otherwise, expect more seasonable temperatures to continue through next week. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions through the TAF period, with breezy conditions in the Delta around 21z through 12z. A few gusts up to 25kts during this time frame. Sacramento sites see breezy conditions at times, with 15-20kts gusts possible this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, lingering clouds this afternoon and clearing in the evening and overnight. A FEW to SCT clouds around 10-16z tomorrow. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

798 FXUS65 KMSO 181830 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1230 PM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Strong to severe thunderstorms afternoon hours and evening, bringing the 5% threat of strong winds, large hail, and heavy rain from north-central Idaho into southwest Montana. - Elevated fire weather this weekend from hot, dry, and breezy conditions, especially in northwest Montana. - Another surge of monsoon moisture expected to arrive by Tuesday. More clouds and/or thunderstorm chances to increase. We may experience further moisture increase from remnants of East Pacific Hurricane Elida by Wednesday or Thursday. Water vapor imagery shows a nice area of monsoon moisture embedded in southwest flow over eastern Oregon into southern Idaho. This moisture interacted with the very warm air mass that was in place and triggered morning thunderstorms. Their movement has been rather fast, generally 30 to 35 MPH to the northeast which can infer that there is a decent mid-level jet streak associated with the moisture. Current and forecast effective shear depicts 40 to 50 knots could be possible over Idaho County and west- central/southwest Montana into this afternoon. Current conditions over Idaho County would suggest that there could be a couple of supercell/severe thunderstorms that could form, capable of producing large hail or damaging winds. Current boundary layer moisture levels are being underdone by the high resolution models which could be part of the reason they are not resolving that many storms. Further to the east, the RAP is showing a bulls-eye of 1000 to 1500 Joules/kg of mixed layer CAPE/instability over the Bitterroot Valley and points eastwards. This is the region where we have higher confidence for storm threats. One caveat to today`s storms is the fact that there is a dry layer found over northwest Montana towards central Idaho. This is depicted by looking at the 24-hour relative humidity change on our weather and hazards data viewer. RH`s are generally 10 to 30 percent lower from a line from Dickey Lake south and west towards Grangeville. This dry air may shift further east with time today as the westerly wind gradient tightens a bit. With that said, a few isolated showers or thunderstorms could initiate off the mountains east of this line (i.e. Blacktail Mountain, Mission Mountains and points south). If they were to develop, they could become very strong, very quickly and produce hail and gusty outflows. The stronger storms could also produce torrential rainfall. The precipitable water values(PWAT, measurement of how much moisture is in the atmosphere) are generally around 0.90" which is +2 standard deviations for this time of year. Yesterday one of the storms produced 0.54" in 15 minutes, 0.86" in 30 minutes just southwest of Clearwater Junction. For Sunday, there is a bit more drying across the region, but the southern Idaho County to southwest Montana could see showers and isolated thunderstorms develop. Working against the shower development could be modest warming occurring aloft. On Monday, the upper ridge builds more over the western U.S. As it does this, it will also continue to draw up monsoon moisture. Some of this could mainly be high-level cloud cover, while other locations towards Lemhi County could get enough heating to help bring the "Cap" or capping inversion and allow storms to fire off. On Tuesday, north to east winds may develop. The latest RRFS smoke model shows some of the Canadian smoke moving into the Glacier Region. The upper level ridge axis may be present from Colorado north and west to Spokane. Usually in this pattern, the elevated warmth will suppress or prevent showers from growing very well (more stable). But with PWATs approaching 1.00", all it could take is a weak push of mid-level monsoon moisture and associated shortwave or mountain initiation to fire off a few storms. Models depict that the remnants of Hurricane Elida may track northwards, west of California by Tuesday. This could bring even more subtropical moisture into the Northern Rockies. How this evolves on Wednesday in terms of showers or thunderstorms will depend on timing of and magnitude of cloud cover. && .AVIATION...Thunderstorms are expected again today, mainly in southwest Montana affecting terminals KBTM, KSMN, and KHRF. The HREF ensemble model has significant convective initiation starting starting between 18/19Z and 18/20Z this afternoon between terminals KSMN and KHRF, and all HREF members show storms out of the area by 19/04Z. Heavy rain and hail have been the main impacts from the storms in this air mass the last few days, and that`s what we expect again today as well as wind gusts around 40 mph. Models are trending downward on thunderstorm potential for Sunday the 19th. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

711 FXUS65 KBOI 182016 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 216 PM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers/thunderstorms across south-central Idaho and the central Idaho mountains this afternoon. - Areas of smoke in southeast Oregon, drifting into southwest Idaho through the week. - Hot temperatures through this week, hottest on Monday. - Showers/thunderstorms increase next week with heavy rainfall possible Tuesday through Friday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Monday Night/... A trough in British Columbia will flatten the prevailing ridge over the region today, creating a favorable atmosphere for thunderstorms and showers in central, south-central, and southeastern Idaho. Isolated to scattered shower and storm development in our area will be confined to the eastern portions of the Boise and West Central Mountains, and especially near the Magic Valley and ID-NV border region. Thunderstorms will be capable of 30-50 mph outflow gusts, small hail, and heavy rain. As the BC trough moves north of the region overnight, the moisture stream momentarily moves east out of the area for Sunday. Temperatures today and Sunday remain hot with valley highs in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees. Monday as the high pressure moves further west, we again begin to move into a monsoonal pattern. Before the moisture arrives, the strong southerly flow warms temperatures up even more. Monday is currently forecast to be the hottest day in the forecast, with lower elevations seeing highs 100 to 105 degrees. That afternoon and evening, storms in Utah and Nevada creep just up to the ID-NV border. They may stray as far north as the Magic Valley that evening. Outside of storms, mild breezes are expected each day with gusts 15-30 mph. Westerly and northwesterly surface winds will continue to transport smoke from Oregon fires into southeast Oregon and across southwest Idaho into early next week. && .LONG TERM /Tuesday through Saturday/... The upper-level ridge centered over the south-central U.S. will remain through the extended. On Tuesday and Wednesday, continued southerly flow aloft will transport monsoonal moisture into the area. Ensemble-mean precipitable water values increase to around 1.25 inches, or above the 95th percentile. Shower / afternoon thunderstorm chances increase to 20-50% across the higher terrain on Tuesday, then across all areas Wednesday and Thursday as deterministic models hint at shortwave impulses aiding development. The deep moisture and potential for slower storm motion will result in heavy rain and flooding concerns through much of the week. Flow aloft will be affected by an upper-level trough moving onshore into the Pacific NW during the end of the work week into the weekend. This will shift flow aloft to more southwesterly than southerly, which will begin to push the moisture to the east, with precipitation chances gradually decreasing in our western zones. The ridge will keep temperatures hot through the period, averaging a few degrees above normal. Afternoon wind gusts Friday onwards will increase with the upper-level trough increasing the pressure gradient. Smoke will likely continue to impact much of the area through the week, especially across southeast Oregon. && .AVIATION /18Z Saturday through Sunday/... Issued 1212 PM MDT SAT JUL 18 2026 Mainly VFR. Wildfire smoke reducing visibility in SE Oregon, expanding into SW Idaho tonight. Visibility will improve somewhat in the afternoon as the smoke mixes out. Isolated / scattered showers and thunderstorms over Central and S-Central Idaho this afternoon with gusty outflow winds and locally heavy rainfall. High density altitude due to heat in the afternoon. Surface winds: SW-NW 5-12 kt. Localized gusts 15-25 kt late this afternoon/evening. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 5-15 kt. KBOI...VFR with some haze due to wildfire smoke. High density altitude due to heat in the afternoon. Surface winds: NW 7-12 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon, then light and variable overnight. Sunday Outlook...High density altitude due to heat. Areas of smoke reducing visibility mostly across SE Oregon and near the OR/ID border in SW Idaho. Showers and thunderstorms south of KTWF/KJER during the PM hours. Surface winds: NW 5-15 kt, afternoon gusts 15-25 kt. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for ORZ061-062. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....CH AVIATION.....CH

037 FXUS65 KLKN 181714 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1014 AM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * There is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall in Southeastern Nevada each afternoon and evening today and Sunday * There is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall in Eastern Nevada each afternoon and evening Monday through Wednesday * A few strong thunderstorms possible in Eastern Nevada each afternoon and evening today through at least Wednesday && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through Friday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper-level area of high pressure will be centered over Northwestern Colorado this weekend. Monsoonal moisture will remain in place over Southeastern Nevada this weekend, resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms. Farther north, in Northeastern Nevada, atmospheric moisture will not be that robust, resulting in less thunderstorm coverage each afternoon and evening this weekend. Regardless of coverage, a few strong thunderstorms are possible in Eastern Nevada each afternoon and evening this weekend. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be localized flooding, small hail, wind gusts near 45 mph, and dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes. Here are thunderstorm probabilities for select locations in Eastern Nevada on Saturday, July 18th, 2026: Great Basin National Park - 44% Lund - 41% Ely - 40% Currie - 36% Jackpot - 32% Eureka - 28% Wells - 28% Ruby Lake - 27% West Wendover - 26% Elko - 18% The aforementioned anticyclone aloft will move into the South Central United States early next week. This will push monsoonal moisture northward into all of Eastern Nevada, resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening Monday through Friday. Here are thunderstorm probabilities for select locations in Eastern Nevada on Monday, July 20th, 2026: Ely - 47% Eureka - 45% Lund - 44% Great Basin National Park - 43% Currie - 42% Ruby Lake - 41% Austin - 28% Elko - 27% Wells - 25% West Wendover - 23% FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence regarding a marginal risk of excessive rainfall in Southeastern Nevada each afternoon and evening this weekend. Moderate forecast confidence in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall in Eastern Nevada each afternoon and evening Monday through Wednesday. High forecast confidence regarding a few strong thunderstorms in Eastern Nevada each afternoon and evening today through at least Wednesday. No deviations from the NBM model output. && .AVIATION... Prevailing conditions at all sites will be VFR through the next 24 hours. Thunderstorms are expected near KELY this afternoon and evening and cannot be ruled out near KENV, although probability was too low for TAF inclusion at about 15%. Thunderstorms may also result in erratic strong winds 30-40KT. && .FIRE WEATHER... A few strong thunderstorms are possible in Eastern Nevada each afternoon and evening this weekend. The primary hazards will be small hail, wind gusts near 45 mph, and cloud to ground lightning strikes. Enhanced runoff and localized flooding is possible in storms that form over areas with antecedent rainfall from earlier this week (especially portions of 470 and 425). && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...87 AVIATION...94 FIRE WEATHER...87