ZSE Aviation Forecast Discussions

338 FXUS66 KSEW 242152 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 252 PM PDT Tue Mar 24 2026 .SYNOPSIS...A strong storm will continue to bring wind, rain and high elevation snow today. Post frontal showers and a convergence zone will follow on Wednesday. Drier conditions and slightly warmer weather through the weekend. Troughing returns on Monday for rain and cooler temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A strong Pacific storm system continues to move throughout the area this afternoon, bringing gusty winds, mountain snow, and lowland rain. Recent radar imagery shows the bulk of the precipitation band sagging eastward, with most of the northwestern half of the CWA dry. Rivers may see small rises but additional flooding is not expected. Breezy southerly winds have arrived this afternoon, more notably in areas along the coast and especially up in the North Interior near Whidbey Island where we are seeing gusts up to 45 mph. Winds will generally remain breezy throughout the rest of the evening, upwards to 30 mph at times. Snow levels remain high this evening limiting snow up to the high elevations, primarily in the Cascades. Heading into Wednesday, we`ll be in a post frontal airmass with showers lingering throughout the area. Snow levels will lower down to 2500 feet, with some accumulations expected in the Cascade Passes. A convergence zone will also develop late Wednesday afternoon primarily over Snohomish County. This convergence zone may locally enhance snow accumulations further, especially at Stevens Pass where we could see a range from 8 to 12 inches. A winter weather advisory is in effect for Stevens Pass, and also the North Cascades. With the air mass being unstable as well, SPC has put most of western Washington in a general thunder risk. Could see an isolated thunderstorm or two. Lingering showers possible on Thursday, but will trend drier throughout the day. Snow levels remain low, around 1000 to 1500 feet, which could bring a very brief rain/snow mix to the Cascade foothills Thursday morning, but confidence is low. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure will build into the area starting on Friday and throughout the weekend, bringing warmer and drier conditions to western Washington. High temperatures over the weekend in the upper 50s, even possibly reaching the lower 60s at times. A trough will return early next week for cooler temps and more rain. Mazurkiewicz && .AVIATION...Strong southwest flow aloft as a frontal system affects the area today. Ceilings are a mixed bag this afternoon, ranging from IFR and MVFR at locations with lingering rain to VFR levels where the rain has moved off to the east. In general, ceilings are expected to improve, reaching 3-3.5K feet between 00-03Z this evening. Gusty southerly winds will peak late this afternoon - strongest remaining along the coast and through the interior from Whidbey Island northward. Winds will become southwesterly and ease through the evening, with gusts 15-25 kt possible. KSEA...VFR ceilings will linger overnight. Southeasterly winds 10- 12kt will become southwesterly with gusts to 25kt through the evening, easing somewhat overnight but still remaining 8-10 kt. && .MARINE...A vigorous frontal system will sweep across across the waters late this afternoon into this evening. Strong onshore flow will settle in behind the front through the strait. Gales remain in effect all waters with coastal seas building well into the double digits this afternoon and tonight and persisting into Wednesday. Surface ridging will begin to rebuild across the waters on Thursday and remain in place into Friday before another front approaches over the weekend. Seas will slowly subside to 6-8 feet Thursday and 5-7 feet toward the weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... Flows on the Cedar River at Renton remain high due to dam operations and will rise above Minor Flood Stage later this afternoon. Elsewhere, river flooding is not expected over the next 7 days. Mazurkiewicz && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Wind Advisory until 6 PM PDT this evening for Grays Harbor County Coast-Island County-Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish Counties-Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-Northern Washington Coast-Port Townsend Area-San Juan County. Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT Thursday for Cascades of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for Grays Harbor Bar. Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm- Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-Puget Sound and Hood Canal-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Admiralty Inlet- East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands. && $$

362 FXUS66 KPQR 242130 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 230 PM PDT Tue Mar 24 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Widespread rain and locally breezy to windy conditions continue this afternoon before we transition to showers for Wednesday. Mountain snowfall returns to the passes as well before all lingering precipitation tapers off early Thursday morning. High confidence in the return of dry weather accompanied by a warming trend late week into the weekend. Chances are increasing for another weather system late weekend into early next week, although the exact details of this event remain uncertain at this time. && .DISCUSSION...Now through Monday...Current satellite and radar observations this afternoon show a cold-frontal boundary swinging through the region with widespread rainfall ongoing, although this will begin to change headed into the evening hours. Winds, which recently peaked along the coast, have been breezy to locally windy (gusts generally 40-55mph) with a few of the most exposed surface observations like Cape Disappointment and Clatsop Spit having seen gusts 55-65mph range. However, inland winds have been much lighter comparatively and likely remain that way - gusts continue in the 20-35 mph range for a few more hours before ramping down this evening. Overall this frontal feature remains rather progressive, quickly pushing to our east this evening followed by a transition to a showery, cooler, and slightly unsettled post-frontal airmass overnight. For Wednesday our attention turns to a secondary upper-level shortwave feature expected to push into the Pacific Northwest during the midday and afternoon hours helping to further, albeit temporarily, enhance shower activity. Due to daytime heating and the colder airmass aloft, deterministic model soundings do indicate some weak instability (100-250j/kg MUCAPE) during the afternoon hours which if fully utilized could produce a weak thunderstorm with infrequent lightning, small hail, and locally gusty winds the main impacts. All in all, chances remain rather low for any given location (5-15%) to experience one of these weak "one-hit-wonders". Once we approach sunset and daytime heating wanes, any threat for this activity comes to an end. For all the mountain snowfall enjoyers out there, snow levels finally drop below the Cascade passes tonight into early Wednesday morning once we`ve fully transitioned to the aforementioned post-frontal airmass. Unfortunately, the sad state of our snowpack won`t receive much help as the showery nature of the precipitation from this point onward will limit our snowfall accumulation potential. The latest NBM probabilities of at least 6 inches of snow over the Cascades (both OR and SW WA) remains less than 5-15%, except for the highest peaks. Snow levels likely lower to 1500-2000 ft for a brief period Wednesday night into early Thursday morning as showers are ending, with a 5-10% chance of snow levels falling near valley floor in the southwest Washington lowlands. However, precipitation probabilities along with amounts are so low by this point that even if some wet snow does mix in, it would not accumulate or lead to any impacts, especially as road surfaces would be too warm. On Thursday the shortwave moves east of the area with upper level flow becoming more zonal behind it. Generally zonal flow with slight ridging continues Friday into Saturday, bringing dry conditions with clearing skies. Expect a warming trend with daytime temperatures in the mid to upper 50s on Thursday, low to mid 60s Friday, and mid to upper 60s on Saturday/Sunday for the interior lowlands. Over the weekend hitting and/or exceeding 70 degrees remains within the realm of possibility but probabilities have decreased a few percentage points compared to yesterday. The latest NBM indicates a 20-50% chance for high temperatures to meet or exceed 70 degrees across the Portland metro area and Willamette Valley both Saturday and Sunday, with slightly higher probabilities (40-50%) south of Salem near Eugene. Both deterministic and ensemble guidance still indicate a deep trough moving east over the Pacific and approaching the West Coast later on Sunday into Monday, bringing increasing chances of precipitation. However, there still remains much to be desired regarding the exact timing, amplitude, and thus impacts with this disturbance - model uncertainty remain high Sunday/Monday. This uncertainty continues to facilitate a significant NBM 25th-75th percentile temperature spread, showing highs ranging from the upper 50s to the mid 70s for the interior lowlands Sunday afternoon depending on how quickly the next system arrives. Should ensemble guidance trend slower with the deep trough offshore, Sunday may end up being the warmest day of the upcoming late week/weekend time period. Hopefully we`ll see forecast solutions converge in the coming days. -99/03 && .AVIATION...Strong southwest flow aloft as a front moves across the area today. Moderate rainfall associated with this front will likely reduce visibilities at times to 2-4 SM along the coast, and to 4-6 SM inland. MVFR conditions are expected at coastal terminals through 01-03z, while there is a 40-50% chance of conditions falling to IFR through 22z this afternoon. MVFR conditions at inland terminals are most likely to develop by 21z as rain spreads across the area. Breezy southerly winds are also expected with gusts up to 35-40 kt along the coast, and 25-30 kt inland. Winds are expected to peak by 22z then gradually ease through this evening. Conditions are expected to improve after the frontal passage, generally after 02-04z Wednesday, to VFR (at least an 80% chance). Another round of showers is expected Wednesday morning. KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR conditions are likely (50-70% chance) to persist as rainfall increases across the area, bringing reduced visibility to 3-5 SM and CIGs around 2500 ft. Conditions are expected to improve back to VFR around 03z Wed behind the frontal passage. Southerly winds are expected gust up to 25-30 kt as 40-50 kt SSW winds aloft (around 2000 ft) mix down to the surface. Winds should begin to ease after 22-23z. /DH && .MARINE...Southerly gales are expected to ease by 5 PM this evening as a cold front pushes inland. Breezy southwest winds will continue with gusts up to 25 kt across the coastal waters through Wednesday morning. Another low pressure system will push a weak cold front across the waters later Wed morning, followed by more westerly onshore flow easing through Wed night. As of early Tuesday afternoon, combined seas at around 13 to 14 ft continue to build in response to the strong southerly winds, producing steep and choppy seas with a period of 8 to 9 seconds. Buoy 46089 is reporting seas of around 18 ft at 11 seconds, indicating the arrival of a fresh southwesterly swell. Local guidance suggests seas should build to around 17 ft at buoy 46029 later this afternoon. Seas then are expected to gradually subside tonight through Wednesday, though will likely remain elevated above 9 to 10 ft through Wed afternoon. Will maintain the Hazardous Seas Warning for the northern coastal waters through this evening, followed by Small Craft Advisories through Wednesday. High pressure then builds over the waters on Thursday. Northerly winds return through Friday as a surface thermal trough strengthens along the coast. Seas generally remain around 7 to 8 ft. /DH && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Gale Warning until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ210-251>253- 271>273. Hazardous Seas Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ210-251-271. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ252-253-272-273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

592 FXUS66 KMFR 250115 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 615 PM PDT Tue Mar 24 2026 Updated AVIATION discussion .DISCUSSION.../Issued 1248 PM PDT Tue Mar 24 2026/ The front is arriving, with rain spreading inland to the Cascades and winds picking up across the region. A Wind Advisory has been issued for far eastern Klamath County and Lake County from late Tuesday morning into Tuesday evening, with southwest winds of 25 to 35 mph gusting up to 55 mph. As is typical in a southwest flow pattern, winds are expected to be strongest near Winter Rim, including the Summer Lake to Silver Lake vicinity. Wind speeds will also be elevated over the Warner Mountains of eastern Modoc County. Very little if any rain is expected to make it to the East Side with this front, with light rain over the West Side and western Siskiyou County, and periods of moderate rain at the coast and in the upper Umpqua Basin. Overall, precipitation is expected to continue through this evening and into tonight, and with high snow levels, no winter impacts are expected, even in the mountains. Remnants of the front will linger Wednesday into Thursday with cooler temperatures that will be closer to seasonal normals, and isolated to numerous light showers, still limited to the Cascades and West Side in Oregon and far northwest Siskiyou County. Warmer and drier afternoon conditions return late in the week through next weekend, while clear to mostly clear skies under a building ridge allow for a wider diurnal range (colder morning lows). Based on NBM minimum temperature probabilities, and depending on your specific location, there is a roughly 50 to 80 percent chance of frost and/or freezing conditions for the inland West Side valleys of Oregon Wednesday night and Thursday night. WHile this is not uncommon for March, it does follow a period of record warmth that ushered in early spring growth, and this sensitive vegetation may be damaged by the cold temperatures. Colder areas, such as the East Side, the Scott Valley, and the Shasta Valley are still well within the cold season, and are almost certain to freeze. The outlook is for a more active, but also more complex pattern of onshore flow early next week. The details of any particular fronts or periods of rain chances will depend on how and when a large blocking ridge over the northern Pacific occurs. Overall, it does look like flow will trend more from the southwest, which would result in an active, wetter pattern and cooler, more seasonable temperatures. && .AVIATION...25/00Z TAFs...A cold front is still moving onshore as of this evening. Rain is falling along the front, although some heavier showers are falling behind the front and dropping visibilities down to 1 1/2 miles along the coast. We should see MVFR ceilings along the front with visibilities still dropping down to a mile under the heavier showers. VFR conditions are more likely ahead of the front and east of the Cascades through the remainder of the TAF period. Showers will likely persist behind the front along the coast through the remainder of the TAF period with MVFR ceilings persisting overnight west of the Cascades and along portions of the coast. -Smith && .MARINE...Updated 1245 PM PDT Tuesday, March 24, 2026...A cold front will produce south gales and very steep seas north of Cape Blanco today, with steep seas south of Cape Blanco. Steep seas linger this evening while winds veer to west and diminish. Seas become swell dominated tonight while slightly and briefly diminishing into Wednesday morning. A thermal trough will develop Wednesday afternoon and evening, then strengthen on Thursday with strong winds south of Cape Blanco along with steep to very steep, wind wave dominated seas. Northwest winds in the waters south of Cape Blanco are likely to reach Small Craft Advisory strength Wednesday afternoon and evening, then gales are possible Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. For the waters north of Cape Blanco, winds and seas are likely to reach small craft advisory levels Thursday afternoon and continue into Thursday night. The thermal trough is expected to push slightly offshore late Thursday night into Friday with the strongest northerly winds becoming limited to the outer portion of the waters while fresh swell likely also continues steep seas in the inner waters. Improvement is likely late Saturday into Sunday. Conditions are likely to deteriorate again early next week as the pattern becomes more active. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ030-031. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ350-356-370-376. Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for PZZ356. Gale Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday night for PZZ376. && $$

274 FXUS66 KEKA 242032 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 132 PM PDT Tue Mar 24 2026 .SYNOPSIS...A decaying front will bring a chance of light to moderate rain to mainly Del Norte and northern Humboldt Counties tonight. Light rain chances linger into Wednesday morning and then decrease in the afternoon. Blustery to strong northerly winds are forecast to develop behind the front on Wednesday and continue into Thursday. && .DISCUSSION...Light to moderate rainfall will increase across Del Norte and northern Humboldt Counties this evening and overnight. A long southwesterly fetch of subtropical moisture (PWATS >1") associated with a decaying cold frontal boundary will intersect the coastal topography late today into tonight. High resolution mesoscale models continue to show the highest chances for hourly rates over 0.10 inches arriving late today into this evening for coastal Del Norte. HREF 90th percentile 24-hour rainfall exceeds 1 inch near the ORCA border while the 10th percentile ending 5 AM Wed is on the order of half an inch. NBM has a much larger spread with over 90 more ensemble members. Amounts from the national blend are generally around a tenth or two on the low end (10th percentile) but also near 1" in 24 hours on the high end (90th percentile). The front and moisture influx will likely weaken considerably as the boundary sags SE and rainfall amounts will be much less for Humboldt, around a tenth or two. Some places in southern Humboldt may not get any measurable rain at all. Rain chances are forecast to decrease on Wed as northerlies steadily increase offshore. Residual drizzle and low clouds may persist into the afternoon and evening hours as chilly N-NW breezes develop. Otherwise, dry and stable weather will continue for the remainder of the area through the week and into the weekend. Generally above normal high temperatures with minor heat risk is forecast as a broad flat ridge aloft dominates. There will be slight cooling on Wed in the wake of the cold front, however max temps will still be above normal. The warmest locations will continue to be in Lake, Trinity and interior Mendocino Counties where max temps will likely warm up into the lower to mid 80s toward the end of the week (Thu and Fri). Robust offshore flow, dry air and clearing skies will make for exceptional longwave cooling for wind sheltered valleys. The chance for early morning frost and subfreezing temperatures will increase for mostly the interior valleys Thu morning and again Fri morning. Coastal areas may also have frost too but winds and cloud cover may hamper the cooling. Persistent east to northeast breezes through the night will keep the exposed ridges dry and much warmer through the night and no frost is expected for locations in the thermal belt and along mountain ridge tops. Longer range models and national blend of models are trending wetter/colder next week, Monday March 30 to Friday, April 3rd. Higher end scenario (90th percentile) suggests multiple inches of rain spread out over multiple days while a lower end scenario (10th percentile) would yield only half an inch or less over multiple days. There is considerable variability and spread 7 day to 9 days out, but this is the first promising sign for significantly cooler and wetter weather I have seen in quite sometime. && .AVIATION...18Z TAFs...Southerly winds increased Tuesday afternoon. Southerly winds at CEC through 2000 ft AGL up to 30 kts will bring a low end threat for low level turbulence through 0Z Wednesday. Light rainfall will continue spreading in with the front, mostly over CEC. Light rainfall to light drizzle will also impact KACV into Wednesday morning. MFVR ceilings have a high probability of occurring at the coastal terminals (60-70%) this afternoon and overnight. There is a lower chance for IFR, but MOS and HREF do show higher chances for periods of IFR CIGS. Have included PROB30 chance for IFR CIGS in 18Z TAFS. Chances for IFR decrease after the front slowly passes by 12Z, but there will be lingering chances for IFR with possible light drizzle going into 15Z Wednesday. && .MARINE...A quick round of increased southerly winds over the northern waters will quickly ease into Tuesday evening. The quick duration of these southerly winds will not allow for much short period seas development. Northerly winds will quickly build in behind the front Wednesday morning as a strong area of high pressure strengthens in from the west over the Pacific Northwest. Winds have trended slightly lower for these northerly winds, but the strengthened pressure gradient will generate some sustained gale strength winds, with gusts currently forecast to reach over 40 kts starting Wednesday afternoon in the southern waters. The northerlies will quickly expand northward through Wednesday evening. Steep seas will reach 12 to 15 late Wednesday through late Thursday. Winds will begin to ease late Thursday. Gale conditions are forecast to reach into the inner zones, but the limited coverage and duration still warranted a Hazardous Seas Warning due to the combination of gales gusts and large, steep seas. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ450-470. Hazardous Seas Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for PZZ450. Hazardous Seas Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning for PZZ455. Gale Watch from Wednesday evening through late Thursday night for PZZ470. Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Thursday night for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

254 FXUS66 KMTR 242351 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 451 PM PDT Tue Mar 24 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1051 AM PDT Tue Mar 24 2026 - Above normal temperatures will persist into the weekend - Dry weather continues this week; increasing potential for light rain to return beginning of April - Moderate offshore winds across the North Bay Interior Mountains Thursday into Friday && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1051 AM PDT Tue Mar 24 2026 (This afternoon through Wednesday) Adjusted temperatures up slightly today given a number of daily high temperatures were set yesterday, with some more expected today. H50 height field will continue to gradually weaken the remainder of today and Wednesday. The net result of the lower heights and slight increase in cloud cover Wednesday will be around a 5 degree drop in daytime highs from todays values. The progressive trough working to flatten heights on the backside of the persistent ridge will also result in breezy to gusty winds at times Wednesday afternoon, especially near the coast and elevated interior locations. Increased coverage of marine stratus along the coast is also likely, but will struggle to penetrate too far inland with the upper ridging still holding it back mostly to the coastline. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1051 AM PDT Tue Mar 24 2026 (Wednesday night through next Monday) Not much change in the long term forecast through the weekend. Pleasant weather while temperatures mostly run 10-20 degrees above normal with generally light winds. The signal for a more significant pattern change appears to be trending upwards with ensembles and deterministic guidance coming more in line with one another. Confidence is highest for at least temperatures to be moderated closer to normal by the beginning of next week. The deeper offshore troughing beginning Monday that would be more favorable for potential rainfall also seems to be more likely than at this time yesterday. This is a trend we`ll be monitoring closely. Attm the North Bay and the coastal ranges are in the best position to get periods of wetting rain later Monday into Tuesday, which does speak to the shallow nature of the moisture source in the lower boundary layer. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 432 PM PDT Tue Mar 24 2026 Currently VFR at all terminals. Low to moderate probability for sub-VFR conditions to return to bayshore and coastal terminals tonight. If ceilings do develop, they will likely be on the cusp of IFR/MVFR. Diurnal winds will prevail with gusty winds developing tomorrow afternoon. Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with westerly flow. Moderate confidence on VFR prevailing through the TAF period with about a 40% chance for sub-VFR conditions to return to the terminal tonight. If a ceiling were to develop, it would likely be on the cusp of IFR/MVFR. Strong westerly winds will develop tomorrow, with about a 35% chance for gusts to reach or exceed 35 knots. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with westerly flow at MRY and VFR with northwesterly flow at SNS. Moderate confidence in VFR prevailing through the TAF period. There`s about a 45% probability for sub-VFR conditions to return tonight. If a ceiling were to develop, it would likely be on the cusp of IFR/MVFR. Diurnal winds will prevail, with gusty conditions developing tomorrow afternoon. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 432 PM PDT Tue Mar 24 2026 Moderate north-northwesterly breezes will persist through tonight and begin to increase further Wednesday. By late Wednesday gale force northerly winds will develop across the northern outer waters and continue into Thursday. Expect rough to very rough seas to develop by late Wednesday through Thursday, then begin to subside on Friday. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Gale Warning from 9 PM Wednesday to 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...RGass Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

681 FXUS66 KOTX 242357 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 457 PM PDT Tue Mar 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cascade Pass Snow: Wintry travel conditions develop tonight through Wednesday over the Cascades as snow levels drop to below pass levels. - Gusty Winds: Winds will ramp up this afternoon through Wednesday with southwesterly gusts 25 to 40 mph. - Hydrology: The Stehekin River at Stehekin is forecast to remain above its Action Stage (19.5 ft) for the next week. Other area rivers will stay elevated but will remain below Action Stage. && .SYNOPSIS... An incoming low pressure system is ushering in a plume of moisture off of the Pacific, bringing widespread precipitation and gusty southwesterly winds. A trailing cold front pushing through this evening will drop snow levels below mountain passes, resulting in wintry travel conditions over the Cascades tonight through Wednesday. High pressure returns Thursday through the weekend making for a drier and warmer end to the week. && .DISCUSSION... Today and Wednesday: Precipitable water values are currently between 200 and 250 percent of normal across the Inland Northwest courtesy of an incoming low pressure system directing an atmospheric river at the region. Widespread rainfall is being observed with pockets of snow in the valleys along the east slopes of the Cascades. Precipitation will continue into this evening regionwide, then heading into the overnight hours a cold front passage will drop snow levels from west to east and usher in drier, more westerly flow, putting an end to precipitation everywhere but the Cascades, northern WA mountains, and ID Panhandle mountains. Between tonight and Wednesday night, the ID Panhandle lowlands have a 50 to 80 percent chance of seeing at least 0.50 inches of liquid, while these chances jump up to near 100 percent for higher elevations. For extreme Eastern WA (east of a line from Metaline Falls to Pullman) there is a 30 to 50 percent chance for at least 0.50 inches of precip. Looking at snow accumulation, snow levels will drop to around 2000 feet behind the cold front passage tonight, transitioning precip type at mountain passes from rain to snow. Snow will continue over the passes through Wednesday and into early Thursday, resulting in wintry travel conditions at times. The 10th percentile (low end) snow amount forecast for Stevens Pass is 3 inches over the course of the event, while the 90th percentile (high end) amount is 13 inches. How much snow Stevens Pass ends up getting will depend largely on where the Puget Sound Convergence Zone sets up Wednesday afternoon. If the convergence zone sets up directly over the pass, snow amounts will likely be on the high end of that range, while if the convergence zone is slightly north or south of the pass, snow amounts will be lower. Lookout and Sherman Passes will see much lighter accumulations of around an inch. Some spots in the Cascade valleys including Mazama and Winthrop have seen a couple inches of snow fall so far today, but snow in these valleys will taper off following the cold front passage. In addition to snow, this system will bring gusty winds out of the southwest between 25-40 mph this afternoon through Wednesday. Highest gusts are forecast across the Columbia Basin and over the Spokane/Palouse areas. One last thing to keep an eye on for Wednesday afternoon will be some weak post-frontal instability. The HREF depicts 50-100 J/kg of surface CAPE Wednesday afternoon over the Cascade crest, northern mountains, and ID Panhandle which may be enough to trigger a rogue lightning strike or two. Thursday through Monday: The pattern turns drier and warmer heading into next weekend as a ridge of high pressure builds in behind the exiting low. After Thursday morning, precipitation chances drop to near zero through Sunday. Afternoon highs will climb into the 50s and 60s, though mostly clear skies will allow overnight lows to dip into the 20s and 30s. Ensembles hint at a ridge breakdown early next week, but for now, the weekend looks dry and calm. /Fewkes && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: A frontal system moves by this afternoon and evening, with areas of rain over southeast WA into ID. This will impact GEG/SFF/COE/PUW/LWS with areas of MVFR conditions becoming more predominant through evening. Some clearing is expected to gradually move in from the west, with the precipitation ending lower level moisture will keep the threat of MVFR conditions going into Wednesday morning, with higher chances near the ID/WA border including PUW/COE. Breezy winds are expected, but it has not been consistent but some stronger winds remain aloft. So some LLWS has been included for GEG/SFF/COE/PUW through about 06Z, with speeds around 40-50kts around 2000-2500 AGL. Tomorrow looks drier with largely VFR conditions at most TAF sites, especially after 15Z. Some afternoon showers are in the forecast but the risk at TAF site is limited. It will remain breezy. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for MVFR conditions after 00Z at GEG/SFF/COE/PUW with a 80% chance for ceilings below 3 kft AGL, and there is a 30% chance for IFR conditions at times with the rain through 04Z. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 38 51 28 47 28 55 / 80 10 20 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 39 51 28 47 27 56 / 100 20 40 10 0 0 Pullman 41 49 28 44 29 55 / 100 40 20 0 0 0 Lewiston 47 55 33 51 30 60 / 100 50 20 0 0 0 Colville 35 53 27 50 26 55 / 60 20 30 0 0 0 Sandpoint 38 47 28 43 27 53 / 100 40 60 30 0 0 Kellogg 41 48 29 42 29 55 / 100 40 70 20 0 0 Moses Lake 36 56 30 54 29 60 / 20 10 10 0 0 0 Wenatchee 38 51 32 51 32 55 / 10 20 10 0 0 0 Omak 35 50 28 47 30 56 / 20 20 10 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT Thursday for Western Chelan County-Western Okanogan County. ID...None. && $$

445 FXUS66 KPDT 242351 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 451 PM PDT Tue Mar 24 2026 .DISCUSSION... Clouds are overspreading the entire area as rain became anchored across the Washington Cascades this morning. For the balance of the afternoon the area can expect better than just under one tenth of an inch per hour to as much as one quarter inch per hours in the higher rainfall rates in those highest level Cascade mountain zones. Rain will also develop over the eastern mountains after around 5 pm as the rains over the Cascades crest begin to trend towards lower rates. Very high snow levels (7-9kft) this afternoon will be crashing Tonight to around 2500 ft AGL in the WA Cascades to around 3-4 kft in the Oregon Cascades and Northern Blue Mountains, creating a dusting up to a couple of inches total over Wednesday/Wednesday Evening. Other than the breezy conditions Wednesday following Today`s marginal near advisory level wind gusts in locations like the Simcoe Highlands, and Yakima Valley, no near headlines worthy weather elements pose a risk other than the ongoing high running and flooding rivers to the Yakima mainstem and its largest tributary the Naches through mid week. Look to an opportunity for elevated fire risk later in the week, pointing Friday especially (see Fire Weather section). Although some cloud cover is noted by the NBM mean the temperatures for the weekend ramp up from a broad lowland 50s and low 60s to mid an upper 60s for the low lands and into the 70s across the John Day Basin and Ochoco Highlands/Grande Ronde Valley. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... VFR conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours at all TAF sites. Will note low confidence (20-40 percent) in MVFR CIGs overnight into Wednesday morning at PDT/ALW, with very low (20 percent or less) confidence elsewhere. Periods of light rain will continue this afternoon and evening, with the highest chances (50-80 percent) at DLS/PDT/ALW with lower (20-50 percent) chances at RDM/BDN/YKM/PSC. Gusty winds will continue through this evening, with periods of gusty winds then persisting through the remainder of the period. 86 && .FIRE WEATHER... Overall its a lower risk of fire weather risk parameters through midweek. Although breezier periods over the next couple of days, relatively high afternoon relative humidity will be experienced. Following that, when the drier air develops later in the week, especially Thursday into Friday, the NBM 25th to 75th percentiles show some potential for elevated fire weather conditions. The high end of the statistical candlestick produces 20 mph gusts across areas than have an NBM mean well below 20% minimum afternoon relative humidity, particularly the Ochoco-John Day Highlands and eastern slopes of the Oregon Cascades parts of central Oregon. && .HYDROLOGY... Additional rains across the WA Cascades today will keep the Yakima River and its tributaries running high through the week. The Naches, which has been in minor flood, will remain so until Thursday afternoon, cresting below moderate stage midday Wednesday. Additionally the Yakima is forecast to remain in minor flood until falling below Thursday evening. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 43 56 30 52 / 80 40 10 0 ALW 45 56 34 52 / 90 60 20 0 PSC 43 62 33 58 / 40 10 0 0 YKM 35 56 28 54 / 20 10 0 0 HRI 43 60 32 57 / 50 20 0 0 ELN 33 49 28 49 / 20 30 10 0 RDM 37 54 21 52 / 50 10 0 0 LGD 43 53 28 49 / 100 70 30 0 GCD 47 60 26 51 / 70 40 10 0 DLS 42 57 34 58 / 70 30 10 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...71 AVIATION...86 FIRE WEATHER...71 HYDROLOGY...71

389 FXUS65 KREV 241924 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1224 PM PDT Tue Mar 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Temperatures remain well above seasonal averages for much of this week, with the more chances for daily record highs today. * Afternoon breezes will increase through Wednesday, with choppy lake waters and travel impacts possible. * A shift to a cooler and wetter pattern begins next week. && .DISCUSSION... The ridging pattern that has served up recent record-shattering heat since March 17th is still persisting, at least through the weekend. We may see yet another record set today as this ridge sticks around. The center of the ridge is migrating to the skies over the Rio Grande River, bringing a streak of hot weather to Texas, and stretching north into the Central Plains. As the ridge slides ever- so-slightly to the east, it puts our region under a tightening gradient at the periphery of the high pressure dome. What this translates to at the surface will be increasing winds today and Wednesday, with gusts to 40 mph possible over Pyramid Lake, Lahontan and Rye Patch Reservoirs. This has prompted a Lake Wind Advisory for Wednesday over the aforementioned bodies of water. Thursday will be marked by breezy north-northeast winds that will usher in cooler temperatures that will feel noticeable in contrast to the recent heat across the region. Clouds will build in across western Nevada and northeastern California skies, limiting solar heating. The same cloud cover will be in place as the sun rises on Friday, but Friday will feature a minor increase in temperatures. For the weekend we have a warmup on the horizon again. This will bring a resurgence of 80s back to the Basin and Range, with upper 70s for the leeside valleys. For the Sierra valleys, we can look forward to one more weekend of upper 60s to mid 70s. We can also plan on afternoon breezes to pick up each weekend day. Next week, a continually eastward march of the ridge will allow the progression of a system that will bring some shower chances, cooler temperatures (in some guidance, a significant difference on the way) and gusty winds. Details of these features are less obvious at this time, but in the coming days we will watch and report what we find. At this time, confidence is increasing for this pattern change to take hold over the region. HRICH && .AVIATION... * VFR conditions will continue through the weekend, although mountain wave turbulence and LLWS will continue through Wednesday. The hours of the day LLWS and turbulence will be most pronounced will be during the 18z-03z timeframe. This will feature FL100 gusts ranging 35 to 45 kts. Surface winds will range 20 to 30 kts through Wednesday. * Fog formation at KTRK will be limited by nearby cirrus clouds through the rest of the week into the weekend, although a 20% exists. HRICH && .CLIMATE... The heat keeps marching on for both Reno and South Lake Tahoe, with the streak of new or tied record highs now at 7 straight days, which is itself, a record for days in a row of records. While the monthly records set last week won`t be challenged this week, more daily record highs are within reach at both sites mainly today and also for this weekend. New daily record high temperatures and the previous daily record high temperatures for Reno and South Lake Tahoe: Date Reno NV South Lake Tahoe CA ---- ------------ ------------------- 3/17 82F (old 78F in 2007) 69F (old 65F in 2007) 3/18 86F (old 77F in 1947) 76F (old 63F in 2004) 3/19 85F (old 77F in 1997) 72F (old 65F in 2015) 3/20 88F (old 81F in 2004) 72F (old 68F in 1997) 3/21 81F (old 80F in 2004) 70F (old 68F in 1997) 3/22 77F (tied with 2004)69F (old 65F in 2004) 3/23 78F (old 77F in 2022)66F (tied with 2022) 3/24 80F - 202265F - 2022 3/25 81F - 202267F - 2022 ------------------------------------------------------- New daily record warmest low temperatures and the previous daily record warmest low temperatures for Reno and South Lake Tahoe: Date Reno NV South Lake Tahoe CA ---- ------------ ------------------- 3/18 48F - 1904 37F - 2021 3/19 46F - 2013 38F - 2013 3/20 47F - 2013 35F - 2013 3/21 50F (old 46F in 2015) 38F - 1972 3/22 50F - 2012 40F - 2012 3/23 51F (old 46F in 2000) 41F (old 40F in 1998) 3/24 45F - 2006 40F - 1986 3/25 52F - 1893 38F - 2008 ------------------------------------------------------- * New March monthly record high at Reno: - Reno, NV: New record of 88F on Friday March 20. The previous monthly record was 86F on 3/18/2026. * New March monthly record high at South Lake Tahoe: - South Lake Tahoe, CA: New record of 76F on Wednesday March 18. The previous monthly record was 71F on 3/30/2015. && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM to 11 PM PDT Wednesday NVZ004. CA...None. && $$

599 FXUS66 KSTO 241854 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1154 AM PDT Tue Mar 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures continue through the week with widespread Minor HeatRisk - Gusty and drying northerly flow mid to late week, strongest on Thursday along the I-5 corridor and in the higher elevations && .DISCUSSION... ...The Week Ahead... Upper level ridging continues to control the weather pattern around the area this Tuesday. Weak closed low is observed off SoCal`s coast as well, and will slowly move eastward through Thursday. High temperatures will be continue to be "cooler" than the previous week, however still run around 10-20 degrees above normal, with several locations likely to meet or break previous high temperature records. As the aforementioned low moves inland, periods of breezy to gusty north to northwest winds will develop Wednesday and Thursday; strongest Thursday especially along the I-5 corridor and in the northern Sierra. Probabilities of gusts greater than 40 mph on Thursday are around 30-60% along and west of I-5. High temperatures cool Thursday with the northerly winds, but will quickly climb back to similar highs from Monday and today through the weekend. As we move into Sunday and Monday, our upper level pattern will begin to change. A trough is forecast to deepen across the Gulf of Alaska and dig into the PacNW by Monday/into Tuesday. System is forecast to strengthen and tap into a plume of 150kg/m/s IVT, which will bring a shower chances, mainly in the northern Sacramento Valley, NE Foothills, and northern Sierra/southern Cascades and Coastal Range Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Cold air associated with the trough will also help introduce slight chances for mountain snow. Still too early to get exact details and accumulations down, however our confidence is increasing on a pattern change with cooler temperatures, beneficial rain and light snow moving back into the area next week. As we continue to see well-above normal temperatures for this time of year, individuals should practice heat safety. Please be sure to stay hydrated and take breaks from being in the sun during the heat of the day. Always remember to use caution and wear a life jacket near area waterways. .AVIATION... VFR conditions to prevail across NorCal next 24 hours. Light surface winds below 12 kts, gusts up to 20 kts in the higher elevations. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

659 FXUS65 KMSO 241905 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 105 PM MDT Tue Mar 24 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Atmospheric River: Widespread precipitation, high elevation snow, and gusty winds through Wednesday. - Mountain Snow: Snow accumulations will primarily impact high elevations above 6,000 feet, followed by minor travel impacts on mountain passes, mainly Wednesday night. - Wind and Fire Risk: Strong winds arrive Wednesday. Combined with low humidity, confidence is growing for critical fire weather conditions east of the divide in Southwest Montana. - Mild Weekend: A warming trend begins Friday, bringing above- normal temperatures by Saturday. Atmospheric River (Today-Tonight): A brief Atmospheric River arrives this afternoon, bringing 0.5" to 1.5" of liquid precipitation to the Idaho/Montana border and northwest Montana. Snow levels will rise sharply to near 7,000 feet tonight. While mainstem rivers should remain below action stage, creeks in Lincoln, Sanders, and Mineral counties will see further rises but overall the concern for flooding is minor. Rock and mudslides remain a possibility along terrain-adjacent roadways. Cold Front & Snow Levels (Wednesday-Thursday): A potent cold front crosses the region Wednesday morning. - Northwest Montana: Snow levels will crash to 3,500 feet by Wednesday afternoon. While Lookout and Marias Passes may see several inches of accumulation Wednesday night into Thursday morning, travel impacts appear minor. - Southwest Montana/Lemhi County: Levels will rise to 7,000 feet ahead of the front before falling region-wide Wednesday night. Wind Hazards (Tonight-Wednesday): A 40-60 kt low-level jet will produce widespread wind concerns. - Peak Gusts: 50-70% chance of gusts > 40 mph in Lemhi County and Southwest Montana; 25-50% chance of 30-40 mph gusts for most western Montana valleys (though higher probabilities in NW Montana). - High Terrain: Gusts up to 60 mph along the Continental Divide. - Impacts: Expect choppy lake conditions, the potential for localized tree damage and power outages. Critical Fire Weather (Wednesday): A Red Flag Warning is in effect for the East Beaverhead (Southwest Montana) Wednesday afternoon. The combination of peak winds and relative humidity dropping into the teens will create critical fire conditions ahead of the frontal passage. Extended Outlook: Temperatures drop below seasonal normals Thursday following the front. A drying and warming trend begins Friday as a ridge builds, with temperatures returning to above- normal levels by Saturday. Showers return as early as Sunday afternoon. Ensemble clusters are in good agreement (80-90%) on upper level troughing (widespread cooler/unsettled weather) returning to the Northern Rockies by the second half of next week. && .AVIATION... A fast-moving Atmospheric River arrives this afternoon, bringing widespread rain and terrain-obscuring clouds to north- central Idaho and northwest Montana. Ceilings and visibility reductions will become more common by mid afternoon. Ceilings/Visibility: VFR conditions will deteriorate to areas of MVFR this afternoon (approx. 21Z-00Z) across north-central Idaho and northwest Montana as widespread precipitation begins. Expect persistent mountain obscuration along the Montana/Idaho border and the Continental Divide through the period. Wind/Turbulence: Low-level wind shear and mechanical turbulence will become a hazard this evening through Wednesday. Surface gusts of 25-40 kt are expected in western Montana valleys by late Wednesday morning as a cold front passes. By Wednesday afternoon, gusts will exceed 40 kt over ridges and through wind- prone canyons in southwest Montana and Lemhi County (near KBTM and KSMN). && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Wednesday for Butte/Blackfoot Region. Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 7 PM MDT Wednesday for Kootenai/Cabinet Region. Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 7 PM MDT Wednesday for Flathead/Mission Valleys...West Glacier Region. Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for East Beaverhead. ID...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Wednesday for Eastern Lemhi County...Western Lemhi County. && $$

276 FXUS65 KBOI 250013 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 613 PM MDT Tue Mar 24 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Near record temperatures continue through Wednesday, with valley highs in the mid 70s. - Gusty winds and very dry conditions will bring elevated fire danger along with blowing dust across southeast Oregon and near the Idaho-Nevada border through Wednesday afternoon. - Mountain showers through Wednesday. Gusty winds with a cold front passage Wednesday night followed by breezy and cooler conditions on Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Thursday Night/... Issued 200 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2026 An unusually strong upper level ridge for late March remains the dominant feature across the Intermountain West into Wednesday. This ridge is drawing a very warm air mass northward, which will result in temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above seasonal normals. The primary concern through Wednesday afternoon will be the combination of gusty southerly winds and single digit to low double digit relative humidity. Winds of 25 to 45 mph are expected across the open rangelands of southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho, particularly south of the Snake River. Given the recent dry spell, these conditions will lead to heightened fire danger along the Nevada border. Brief periods of blowing dust is also a concern across the Harney and Malheur Counties restricting visibilities. A cold front will begin to push into southeast Oregon on Wednesday, bringing a 5 to 10 degree drop in temperatures compared to today. However, southwest Idaho will maintain near- record warmth for one more day before the front arrives. Precipitation associated with this system will be most prevalent across northern mountains, where a 30 to 40 percent chance of showers is forecast. Precipitation totals will be light, generally under a tenth of an inch. Snow levels will remain high, staying above 8000 feet MSL through Wednesday afternoon. The cold front moves through the remainder of the area Wednesday night. This passage will be largely dry for the valleys, but will be accompanied by gusty northwest winds up to 45 mph through Thursday, especially along the Interstate 84 corridor from Mountain Home through the Western Magic Valley. This could bring blowing dust for lower visibilities at times. Much cooler air follows for Thursday, with high temperatures falling 10 to 25 degrees from Wednesday levels. Snow levels will also drop significantly to around 4000 to 5000 feet MSL by Thursday morning. && .LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/... Issued 200 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2026 A dry, upper level ridge will build across the Intermountain West Friday, placing the ridge axis to the east of the forecast area. High temperatures will be warmed by 10-15 degrees compared to Thursday. As the ridge axis continues east, a large, elongated trough will approach the west coast over the weekend. As a result, warm southwesterly flow will strengthen across the west and boost temperatures further, approximately 15-20 degrees above normal both Saturday and Sunday. Models bring the upper trough onshore by Monday, introducing a cold front and precipitation chances (15-35%) for E Oregon and SW Idaho Monday and Tuesday. Surface winds will become gusty ahead and behind the cold front, with a notable drop in temperatures by Tuesday. && .AVIATION /00Z Wednesday through Thursday/... Issued 610 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2026 VFR conditions, with BKN-OVC mid-high clouds moving in from W-NW. Scattered rain showers near KBKE/KMYL, with areas of mountain obscuration, continuing through Wednesday. Surface winds: SW-SE 5-15 kt this evening, with gusts up to 30 kt in SE OR near KBNO, becoming under 10 kt after sunset. A cold front will approach from the W and bring W-NW winds 10-20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt Wednesday afternoon after 17Z. Winds aloft at 10 kft: W-SW 20-40 kt. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds SE 5-10 kt, occasionally light and variable, tonight through Wednesday morning. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....JY SHORT TERM...JDS LONG TERM....SH

504 FXUS65 KLKN 241950 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1250 PM PDT Tue Mar 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Record warmth is expected in most of Northern and Central Nevada thru the weekend * Strong winds over northern NV expected Wednesday and Thursday afternoon * Dry weather will persist thru the weekend && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Tuesday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The historic heat wave continues for northern and central NV this week. The dome of high pressure responsible for hot high temperatures across the southwest CONUS remains entrenched to the south of the area. This keeps NV mainly in west-southwest flow in the northwestern quadrant of the high pressure system. In response temperatures through next Monday are forecast to continue setting daily high temperature records at all climate sites in the region. A tightening zonal pressure gradient between the high to the south and an upper level trough to the north will enhance the wind profile over northern NV Wednesday and Thursday. A very subtle shortwave embedded in said flow will add some dynamical forcing to aid in wind production though the bulk of energy with the wave will remain north of the state. Southwesterly wind speeds of 15-20 knots mainly north of I-80 are forecast Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. While these speeds are currently short of advisory criteria future model runs should be scrutinized for increase to criteria level winds. Early next week long-term model guidance depicts a large upper level trough amplifying just off the west coast finally breaking the stagnant hot pattern currently plaguing the region. Both GFS and ECMWF are consistent in the potential for precipitation finally impacting the region by mid week of next week as the trough makes its way into the Great Basin. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence remains in prolonged heat wave and record breaking possibilities regarding high temperatures. Moderate confidence exists in stronger winds impacting northern NV each of the next few afternoons. No major changes to grids needed at this time. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through Wednesday afternoon under high pressure and fair conditions. Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon southwesterly winds gusts for terminals KWMC, KBAM, KEKO, and KELY will range between 20-30KTs before diminishing after sunset both evenings. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...99