706 FXUS66 KSEW 290248 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 748 PM PDT Wed Oct 28 2026 .SYNOPSIS...An upper low will continue to linger over Western Washington through Friday for periodic showers in the lowlands, light snow shows in the mountains, and cooler temperatures. Conditions will trend drier over the weekend with temperatures remaining cool, especially overnight. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...Little change in the pattern overnight and the current forecast remains on track. 33 Previous discussion...An upper level low continues to hover offshore maintaining showers around western Washington this afternoon. Cooler temperatures in the low 50s within the post frontal airmass. Additionally, there is chance (15-20%) of a thunderstorm or two late this afternoon due to the unstable environment. Thunderstorm chances greatly decrease early evening as the sun sets. Snow showers continue in the Cascades but has greatly decreased in coverage since this morning, and will continue as the Winter Weather Advisory remains out until 5PM. Most of the accumulations will be in and around Mount Rainier. The aforementioned upper level low will not move much into Thursday and Friday, keeping scattered showers around in the lowlands and light snow accumulations in the Cascades. Overall precipitation will trend downwards, but can`t rule out stray showers at times with most of the area remaining somewhat dry. Afternoon temps in the low to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...Ensembles are agreeing in the low weakening into the weekend, with conditions becoming drier over western Washington. There may be a shower or two in the Cascades, but overall most of the interior looks to be dry over the weekend with high temperatures in the mid 50s. Overnight lows look to become cooler in the low to mid 30s, with some locations even seeing mid to upper 20s, particularly in the Southwest Interior. Weak ridging will allow conditions to likely remain dry heading into midweek. Mazurkiewicz && .AVIATION...An upper level trough will remain just offshore of Western Washington into Thursday producing southwest flow aloft. The air mass is somewhat unstable. Showers will continue across the region...most numerous near the coast. With low level winds easing overnight, areas of MVFR ceilings are expected to form toward daybreak before lifting again Thursday afternoon. KSEA...A general decrease in shower activity is expected overnight with most activity south and west of the terminal. As surface winds ease somewhat overnight, an general lowering of ceilings is expected with periods of higher end MVFR 12Z-18Z before lifting back to VFR Thursday afternoon. Surface winds E/SE easing to 5 to 7 knots this evening and continuing into Thursday morning. 27 && .MARINE...Seas have peaked across the coastal waters earlier this morning, but remain quite steep with dominant periods around 8 to 9 seconds. As a result, a small craft advisory remains in effect for these areas through the evening. Expect both the seas to decrease and the dominant period to lengthen, so this should be good to expire by the end of the night. Elsewhere, conditions on the Grays Harbor bar are expected to worsen around a very strong ebb this evening as seas steepen and build, so an advisory has been issued here as well. Looking ahead, seas will likely build early next week back to around 10 ft with the arrival of a long period swell into the coastal waters. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Grays Harbor Bar. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. && $$

784 FXUS66 KPQR 290002 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATE National Weather Service Portland OR 502 PM PDT Wed Oct 28 2026 Updated Aviation discussion .SYNOPSIS...Cool and showery conditions continue through Friday as an upper-level low sits offshore. Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect across the Cascades through this evening. Clear skies and calm winds may bring frost development across interior valleys Saturday morning. Mostly dry conditions return this Halloween weekend. Slight chances for precipitation return early next week. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night...Radar imagery as of late Wednesday morning depicts scattered showers across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington as an upper-level low spins off the coast of the Vancouver Island. For elevations above 4500 feet, webcams and surface observations currently show temperatures around 32F with some accumulating snow. Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for the north Oregon and south Washington Cascades through 11 PM this afternoon, and through 5 PM for the Marion, Linn, and Lane County Cascades. High resolution guidance shows some moderate to locally heavy snow showers continuing over the north Oregon and south Washington Cascades through this evening, hence the later end time for the advisory. Showers gradually taper off this evening for the Cascades south of Clackamas County. Expect an additional trace to 3 inches of snow for elevations above 4500 feet, except 3 to 6 inches above 6000 feet. Despite advisory-level snow amounts not being met, the advisory was issued to consider any hikers or backpackers along the PCT or forest roads that may still be open above the main passes. Otherwise, expect a typically fall day west of the Cascades with chances for showers continuing through this evening and temperatures in the 50s for most locations. There is a slight chance (15-20%) for thunderstorms this afternoon across interior southwest Washington, the Portland-Vancouver Metro Area, and Columbia River Gorge as we see some cloud breaks that allows for some surface heating and increased instability. However, chances for thunderstorms decrease once the sun starts going down after 4-5 PM. Any passing thunderstorms may produce lightning, heavy rain, gusty winds, and/or small hail. Tonight into Thursday, the aforementioned upper trough moves southward but remains offshore of the Pacific Northwest. This will maintain chances for light showers across the area, with the highest chances along the coast. Some locations along the I-5 corridor, particularly from Salem southward, may remain drier given that guidance isn`t showing this low moving inland. Chances for 24 hour liquid precipitation exceeding 0.10 inch are around 50-90% along the coast, 40-60% around the Portland- Vancouver Metro Area to the Cowlitz Valley, and 10-25% from the Salem southward and across the Cascades. Friday is a similar trend but slightly drier as the upper low is kept offshore due to upper-level ridging building over the Rockies and Central U.S. Friday night into early Saturday morning, clearing skies and calm winds will favor temperatures dropping into the low to mid 30s across interior valleys, which may lead to fog or frost development. Chances for Saturday morning lows dropping below 32 degrees is 60-90% across the southern Willamette Valley, northern Clark County (Battle Ground area), and the Upper Hood River Valley. -10 && .LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday...Heading into the weekend/Halloween, the majority of ensemble members are showing the offshore upper-level low moving into the Pacific Northwest. It appears that there will be limited moisture with this low coming in, so most ensembles show either dry conditions or light precipitation amounts. However, there is still a low chance (10-20%) for higher amounts of 0.10-0.20 inch between 5 AM Saturday to 5 AM Sunday across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington. For those going out on Halloween, the weather is not looking too impactful as we are not expecting heavy rain or strong winds. Sunday to Tuesday, the majority of ensemble members (75%) are showing an upper-level ridging amplifying over the northeast Pacific and shifting over the Pacific Northwest. If this pans out, will see a trending trend across the region with a temperatures increase of a few degrees. However, 25% of ensemble members (mainly from the GFS and Canadian models) are showing troughing moving into the Pacific Northwest by Monday-Tuesday. If this pans out, then will maintain potential for cooler and wetter weather. For now, chances for precipitation on Monday and Tuesday are only around 10-25%. -10 && .AVIATION...Through 00Z Friday...Westerly flow aloft shifts southwesterly on Thursday as low pressure drifts over the NE Pacific. Rain showers this evening are expected to decrease overnight across inland terminals allowing for predominately VFR conditions through 10-12z. Winds become light tonight with cloud cover becoming scattered to broken. Probs for fog and reduced surface visby below 1 SM are generally less than 10% tonight into Thu morning, except around 20-30% near KEUG. Another round of showers is likely between 10-18z Thu across northern portions of the forecast area with around a 20-30% chance of MVFR. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Occasional rain showers continue through 03z this evening. Expect conditions to trend toward predominately VFR tonight. Chances for rain showers increase again by 10-12z Thu, with a mix of VFR/MVFR CIGs possible through 18z Thu morning. Southwest winds around 6-8 kt are expected to become light overnight, shifting to the southeast by Thu morning. /DH && .MARINE...Buoy observations from early Wednesday morning showed westerly winds around 10 to 20 kt with seas ranging between 7 and 10 ft at 8 to 10 seconds, with the highest winds and seas occurring over the northern and central outer waters. Therefore, these two marine zones have a Small Craft Advisory in effect through 5 PM PDT Wednesday. Meanwhile, the inner waters and southern waters have no headlines in effect as winds and seas have fallen below small craft advisory criteria. Winds and seas will slowly subside this evening into tonight in the wake of a low pressure system. Seas decrease further Thursday through the weekend. This will result in relatively benign conditions across the coastal waters, with an exception within the main channel of the Columbia River Bar where very strong ebb currents Wednesday evening and Thursday evening will temporarily push seas up. Seas on the bar are expected to peak near 10 ft with west winds of 10 to 15 kt during the very strong ebb current Wednesday evening. Seas should peak near 8 ft with south winds of 10 to 15 kt during the very strong ebb current Thursday evening. Seas will build across the coastal waters on Monday in response to the arrival of a long-period west-northwest swell with a dominant wave period near 15-17 seconds. Significant wave heights will most likely peak near 10 ft with the arrival of the long- period swell, however there is a 20-40% chance wave heights will peak over 10 ft. The highest probabilities for this to occur are over the northern and central outer waters. Light offshore winds are expected on Monday, suggesting seas will be primarily driven by the long-period swell rather than wind waves. -23 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ126. WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for WAZ211. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for PZZ210. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM to 10 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ210. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

316 FXUS66 KMFR 290857 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 157 AM PDT Thu Oct 29 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Cool temperatures and very slight chances for showers (limited to Coos and Douglas counties) continue through the rest of the week. * The next system arrives Saturday, with widespread precipitation chances Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Precipitation amounts will be light, with light snow accumulations possible down to around 4500 ft. * Cry conditions return under high pressure Sunday, with a warming trend through the first half of the week. Model guidance diverges beyond next Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION...A broad upper-level closed low currently sits just offshore of Vancouver Island, with west to southwest flow over southern Oregon and far northern California. The low will gradually drift south and meander just offshore of the Pacific Northwest through Saturday morning, keeping cool temperatures and periods of cloudy skies in the forecast through the rest of the week and some portion of the weekend. This system keeps enough distance from the area to limit slight shower chances (5-15%) to the coastal counties through the rest of the week. The low will stretch and elongate north to south Saturday, then push onshore along nearly the entire West Coast by Saturday night. This will produce widespread rain showers Saturday afternoon and evening as the low passes overhead, but rainfall amounts will be light as the bulk of the moisture inflow remains well to our south. Area Halloween festivities may very well see a spooky, mostly cloudy night with sporadic light showers, so be prepared. Snow levels should hover between 4500 and 5500 ft throughout this period of showers, so very light snow accumulations are possible over the mountains and across much of the East Side. The trough pushes east Sunday morning, with showers tapering off before noon, then ridging builds quickly in overhead for the first half of the week. Expect dry conditions Sunday through roughly Wednesday, with a gradual warming trend that peaks around Wednesday at near to slightly above seasonal normals. Beyond Wednesday, there`s some divergence in model behavior, but most suites point to a continued progressive pattern with the arrival of an upper-level trough and associated surface frontal system sometime during the second half of the week, and continued active weather for several days after that. && .AVIATION...29/12Z TAFs...IFR ceilings are likely around the Umpqua valley and closer to the coast this morning. Fog is also possible given the current dew point depressions in some of the valleys west of the Cascades. These lower ceilings should burn off by the late morning hours with VFR ceilings most likely by Thursday afternoon and evening. && .MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Thursday, October 29, 2026...Unsettled weather with occasional showers will continue through the week. Winds are expected to remain below advisory strength. A series of seasonably weak disturbances will produce the strongest northwest winds in the Washington and northern Oregon offshore waters, which will push fresh north-northwest swell into the southern Oregon waters. This swell, combined with a lower west-northwest swell, will persist through the week, gradually lowering Thursday into Friday. The outlook is for a long period west-northwest swell to build from 2 ft at 21 seconds Sunday afternoon to over 10 ft at 17 seconds around Monday afternoon. && .BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 200 AM PDT Thursday, October 29, 2026...Mid- range guidance is showing a long period WNW swell building in over the weekend and persisting into early next week. Early projections show the swell arriving Sunday afternoon at 2 ft 21 seconds. These high-energy waves will then have the ability to run much farther up the beaches and shorelines than normal and could produce dangerous sneaker waves. The swell will build to over 10 feet at 17 seconds by Monday afternoon, so the sneaker wave risk continues then. Periods drop below 15 seconds Monday night, and the risk well lessen. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None. && $$

313 FXUS66 KEKA 290717 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 1217 AM PDT Thu Oct 29 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry weather through Friday. Light rain chances return over the weekend. * Frost and near-freezing overnight temperatures possible for the interior valleys and possibly near the coast each night through Saturday. * Minor coastal flooding at high tide expected through Thursday around Humboldt Bay. && .SYNOPSIS...Cool and dry weather is expected through Friday with additional chances for light rain over the weekend. High tides are likely to cause areas of coastal flooding for areas around Humboldt Bay through Thursday. && .DISCUSSION...Dry and cool air continues to stream into the area as we remain under a troughing pattern. This is bringing near to slightly below normal temperatures, with most areas seeing highs in the 50s and 60s. A stray 70 is possible in the warmest valleys of Mendocino and Lake Counties. Temperatures this morning are again close to frosty conditions. That said, clouds building from the south as well as a reforming marine layer will likely inhibit any widespread frost formation by morning. The troughing pattern remains in place for the remainder of the week, but conditions remain dry through Friday. Increasing upper level clouds will likely aid in particularly cool interior highs barely reaching the 60s. Onshore flow will most likely help a weak and diurnal marine layer form through the end of the week. The only exception to a dry Friday would be in Del Norte County, where there is roughly a 20% of light rain that currently may only amount to a hundredth or two with the bulk of precipitation to the north. This low off the coast of Oregon moves southward this weekend, though there is some uncertainty on just how much moisture will arrive and how far south the low will drop. There is a widespread 30-50% chance of any measurable rain on Saturday and Sunday for all of NW California. The chance for wetting rain (over 0.1") is around 20% focused on the North Coast. This system is a cold system, and snow levels may drop to around 4500 to 5500 ft. Moisture is limited by the time snow levels drop, but a dusting of snow in the higher terrain may be possible, including along Highway 3 at Scott Mountain Pass. While over a week out, long range ensemble members are continuing to signal a shift towards a wetter pattern. Today`s model runs are less bold than yesterday`s and the highest potential for heavier rain has moved into late next week and into the weekend. Still, some models do show some rain mid next week with about a 50% chance for any measurable rain and a 20% for over a tenth of an inch. Essentially every day between November 14th and 90th currently show a 30% chance of wetting rain, suggesting high confidence in a wetter pattern but high timing uncertainty. This pattern will continue to be watched over the coming days. Stay tuned! /JB, JHW && .AVIATION...Weak onshore flow and slightly less instability has allowed for a weak and inconsistent marine layer to form overnight. This layer will bring a variable 50/50 chance of IFR ceilings to coastal terminal through sunrise. QUick clearing to VFR is expected early Thursday morning followed by a slightly stronger marine layer overnight. Otherwise VFr conditions persist for the interior aside from some patchy valley fog. /JHW && .MARINE...Strong northerly winds persist in the southern outer waters with some steep waves up to 8 feet pushing closer to shore. Winds will remain strong though more isolated to the outer waters through Thursday night. Short period seas of 8 to 10 ft are expected with these winds. North winds have remained much more moderate in the northern waters. North winds will persist until early Friday when they diminish into the weekend. Beyond short period seas, various minor mid period westerly swell will augment the sea state through the week. /JHW && .COASTAL FLOODING...Water levels Wednesday reached 9.12 ft above MLLW at the North Spit. This brought some minor flooding to low lying areas of King Salmon and the Arcata bottoms. This was with an anomaly of about 1 foot above astronomical tides. The surge models are showing a slightly higher anomaly during the high tide Thursday (at 1:59 PM), and with an astronomical tide of 7.88 ft, this would again push levels near or above 9.0 ft. A Coastal Flood Advisory will be reissued for the high tide on Thursday. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Frost Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for CAZ101>106- 109-112. Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 PM to 4 PM PDT this afternoon for CAZ103. Freeze Warning until 9 AM PDT this morning for CAZ110-111- 114. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 PM to 4 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ415. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for PZZ455. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

434 FXUS66 KMTR 290704 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1204 AM PDT Thu Oct 29 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1203 AM PDT Thu Oct 29 2026 - Moderate coastal flooding at high tide for Bayshore and Pacific Coast locations through Friday and Saturday - Seasonal to slightly below seasonal temperatures through the extended forecast - Potential for rain this weekend and again early to mid next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1203 AM PDT Thu Oct 29 2026 (Today and tonight) Satellite imagery shows high clouds across the region, the byproduct of a decaying upper level low from the west that is merging into the troughing pattern across the West Coast. Cloudy conditions will likely persist through the day today as morning lows hover in the lower to middle 40s in the inland valleys and the upper 40s to the lower 50s closer to the coasts, while highs remain in the upper 60s to the lower 70s in the inland valleys and the SF Bayshore and the lower to middle 60s along the Pacific coast. Winds will generally remain light and gentle with some breeziness in the afternoon and evening hours in favored locations. Now to address the elephant in the room. Several high-resolution models, including the HRRR and the experimental RRFS, are showing some simulated reflectivity returns coming in later this morning and continuing through the day across the region, but especially focused on the South Bay and the Central Coast. On the surface it seems like rain should be in the forecast, but other meteorological analysis comes in and says "Not so fast!". Looking at the 00Z (5 PM PDT) sounding from Oakland reveals a deep layer of very dry air stretching from the 850 mb layer to the 500 mb layer where dew points range from around -30 to -50 degrees Centigrade. That is a three-mile thick column of air that any potential precipitation will have to overcome for rain to develop, and whether we`ll get anything making it to the surface depends on whether developing cells can overcome that dry layer. The current forecast leans towards "no" with anything seen on KMUX radar today evaporating before it reaches the ground, or virga. We can`t dismiss the possibility of rain completely, but it looks to be something that at most brings a few sprinkles or hundredths of an inch of rain to the mountaintops over something that would be more impactful. A combination of high astronomical tides and surge from thermal expansion effects brings the risk of minor coastal flooding along the Bayshore at the San Pablo, San Francisco, and Monterey Bays, and the Pacific coast, at high tide today. At the San Francisco tidal gauge, high tide is expected to be 1.9 ft above normal (7.7 ft MLLW) at 01:43 PM Thursday 10/29, including around 1.2 ft of surge residual partially attributed to impacts from El Nino. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1203 AM PDT Thu Oct 29 2026 (Friday through Wednesday) High temperatures in the inland valleys will fluctuate in the middle 60s to the lower 70s through the seven day outlook. Large scale troughing remains in place through the next couple days before chances for rain come into the region later on Saturday into Sunday. As the trough starts to push its way eastwards into the West Coast, a upper level jet streak will take aim at the central and southern portions of California. This will facilitate cyclogenesis and a developing surface low takes aim at southern California and the northern portions of Baja California. Those regions will see the bulk of the rain from this system, but the fringes of the moisture will come into the Central Coast and will likely give the interior measurable rain, if not much rain. Forecast rain totals are still fluctuating, but the interior portions of Monterey and San Benito Counties should see around a tenth to a third of an inch of rain Saturday into early Sunday. Elsewhere, light showers are possible within the Monterey Bay region and even extending into the South Bay, especially if the parent system takes a more northerly track. A progressive ridge will come into the region Sunday into Monday before another system comes in towards the end of the seven-day outlook. Last time I had stated that the speed and track of that incoming system was highly uncertain. That remains the case judging from the ensemble model cluster analysis and even just looking at various model outputs heading into the middle of next week. The current forecast retains the rain chances for the end of the seven- day outlook, but by necessity they are low (10-30% probability) and the certainty in any further detail is lower still. Coastal flooding concerns continue across Bayshore locations within the San Pablo, San Francisco, and Monterey Bays through Saturday and the Pacific coastal regions through Friday. At the San Francisco tidal gauge, high tide is expected to be 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 02:39 PM Friday 10/30, and 1.1 feet above normal (6.9 ft MLLW) at 03:44 PM on Saturday 10/31, including around 1.2 ft of surge residual partially attributed to impacts from El Nino. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 839 PM PDT Wed Oct 28 2026 Winds will become light and variable then light offshore tonight and Thursday morning. Surface high pressure over far northern California and the Great Basin will weaken by later Thursday. High and mid level clouds will increase tonight and Thursday, reducing radiative cooling tonight and radiative warming Thursday. VFR is forecast in the 06z TAFs. Vicinity of SFO...VFR. West wind 5 to 10 knots decreasing to light west to northwest wind then shifting to light northeast Thursday morning. West to northwest wind 10 knots Thursday afternoon and early evening. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Light and variable winds then light east to southeast winds tonight and Thursday morning. West to northwest winds near 10 knots Thursday afternoon and early evening. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 837 PM PDT Wed Oct 28 2026 Moderate to strong northwest winds continue into the night across the outer waters with fresh to moderate breezes along coastal waters, with seas continuing to build in response and resulting in rough seas over exposed waters. Expect gradually improving conditions by Thursday and into the early part of the weekend. A long period west-northwest swell is forecast to arrive late this weekend and into early next week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM PDT Saturday for CAZ006-506- 508-529-530. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM PDT Friday for CAZ505-509. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...DialH LONG TERM....DialH AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

553 FXUS66 KOTX 290501 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1001 PM PDT Wed Oct 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Valley rain and mountain snow showers through the week. - Periods of light snow showers on the Cascade passes with minimal accumulations. - Saturday is looking dry for Central Washington. Light rain chances increase over Idaho and Eastern Washington Saturday evening and night. && .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will remain off the coast through Friday then eject inland over the weekend. Valley rain and mountain snow is forecast at times through the week with periods of light snow impacting the Cascade passes. The incoming system will bring increasing chances for light rain Saturday evening and night across Idaho and eastern third of Washington. && .DISCUSSION... Thursday through Sunday: A cool and unsettled pattern will continue the next few days as troughing lingers off the Pacific coast. Despite deep troughing, it will start to fill in, limiting the amount of precipitation that will fall. Showers will be limited to the northern mountains and Cascades with light snow above 2500-3000 feet. Accumulations in these areas will be minor, ranging from a dusting to an inch. Deepening SW flow Saturday and Sunday will bring plentiful cloud cover and chances for rain and high mountain snow, primarily to the eastern third of WA and north ID. The forecast for Saturday evening looks potentially soggy, mostly east of Ritzville, with a 2050% chance of rain. The greatest probabilities will be in southeastern Washington and the southern Idaho Panhandle. Evening temperatures will fall into the low to mid 40s, accompanied by light northeast winds around 1-4 mph. The chance of seeing 0.25 inches or more of rain from 4 AM Saturday to 4 AM Monday is less than 10% west of Ritzville, 10-20% for eastern Washington and northern Idaho north of I-90, and 20-60% for areas south of I-90. Monday through Thursday: Early next week will start off mostly dry, with high confidence in high pressure building into the region. A weak wave moving through northern BC and Alberta will bring a slight chance of sprinkles near the Canadian border on Tuesday. I am monitoring the potential for air stagnation in this pattern, as models indicate shallow boundary layers with light winds. By Tuesday, temperatures will climb 2 to 7 degrees above normal, reaching the 50s, and will remain there through at least Thursday. /DB && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected for EAT/LWS/PUW. Monitoring potential for fog develop on the west plains that builds to the west in the Upper Columbia Basin and has a 40% chance of making into KMWH by 12z. Day time heating will allow for fog to dissipate around 17-18z if it formed around KMWH. KGEG-KSFF-KCOE have around a 40-50% chance for MVFR ceilings from 12-19z. There is a small chance for rain prior to 12z at KCOE as showers continue to move through the region tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions for EAT/LWS. Moderate confidence in MVFR ceilings for GEG/SFF/COE/PUW. Sites may remain VFR with a SCT deck or cigs just above MVFR. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 34 50 36 52 33 51 / 50 0 0 0 0 30 Coeur d`Alene 35 50 34 52 33 52 / 70 10 0 0 10 20 Pullman 36 52 36 51 32 52 / 40 10 0 0 10 30 Lewiston 40 56 39 55 37 54 / 30 10 0 0 10 30 Colville 34 48 34 51 27 52 / 40 30 0 10 0 20 Sandpoint 35 47 34 48 30 51 / 100 30 0 0 0 10 Kellogg 34 48 33 51 33 53 / 80 10 0 0 10 20 Moses Lake 33 53 36 52 28 53 / 0 0 0 30 0 10 Wenatchee 35 47 37 48 34 49 / 0 0 20 50 0 10 Omak 34 48 36 49 31 49 / 10 20 10 20 0 20 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

447 FXUS66 KPDT 290521 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1021 PM PDT Wed Oct 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Intermittent light mountain snow/rain through the weekend - Breezy south to southwest winds diminishing this evening - Below normal temperatures through the week && .DISCUSSION... Satellite showed cumulus over large sections of the forecast area This Afternoon with radar returns indicating at least intermittent showers and virga across the Columbia Basin. North Central Oregon and the Gaps. The most concentrated area of radar returns and cloud cover remained across the Cascade Crest and Eastern Slopes of the Washington Cascades. Wind gusts as high as 43 mph with locally sustained winds at 30 mph were seen at the PSC airport. Elsewhere, gusts of 25 to 35 mph area were more of a common range. Breezy to windy/gusty conditions across the Columbia Basin and the foothills of the Blue Mountains, will gradually diminish late this afternoon and evening as the HRRR is showing 30 to 35 mph gusts across these zones early this afternoon weakening to around 20 mph by 5 pm. Locally gusty winds can persist in the area of the horse heaven hills southwest of the Tri-Cities. A winter weather advisory for snow accumulations remains in effect for the upper slopes of the Washington Cascades This afternoon through 5 pm. Here the HREF 50th percentile takes the snow accumulations up only about 1 more inch in the late afternoon and upwards of 2 more inches on the 75th percentile. At this time, the advisory will not be extended in time. HRRR fields show a steady drop in the snow accumulations though the evening hours. Continuously cooler than average temperatures are anticipated through the week as cyclonic flow aloft maintains cooler mid level air and clouds alongside occasional mountain showers. The next better chances for accumulating mountain snows comes Thursday Night and into Friday morning as the EC/GFS shows the upper low off the WA coast pivoting southward enough to develop more of a diffluent flow aloft over the region, and NBM amounts to very little snow, less than an inch in comparison this Today`s episode. Subfreezing overnight temperatures continue to point areas that have not seen a true growing season ending freeze, and as is typical is the Columbia River Gorge again is last. Friday night/Saturday morning`s probabilistic low temperatures near and around The Dalles isnt convincing of a freeze, as high probabilities/chances exist for lows below 36 degrees (80 percent or more), but for 32F or colder, its roughly less than 5 to 20 percent chances across the entire zone. Cloud cover will be a primary contributing factor for any freeze watches and warnings (or not) going forward. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... VFR conditions persist through the period with mid to high level cloud decks pushing through. Winds in general will be light with most sustained winds less than 12 knots. Otherwise, no CIG or VIS issues anticipated. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 33 53 32 49 / 10 0 0 0 ALW 36 55 34 50 / 20 0 0 0 PSC 30 55 32 53 / 0 0 0 10 YKM 27 52 31 53 / 0 0 10 20 HRI 31 54 31 51 / 10 0 0 0 ELN 22 46 24 47 / 10 10 20 30 RDM 21 52 22 51 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 29 57 31 58 / 20 0 0 0 GCD 28 58 31 57 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 33 54 35 54 / 50 10 10 10 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...71 AVIATION...95

206 FXUS65 KREV 290923 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 223 AM PDT Thu Oct 29 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry and mild conditions with light winds continue through much of today across the area. * Low chances of light rain and mountain snow return this evening through Friday for the Sierra. * A storm system on Saturday and Sunday brings colder temperatures along with valley rain and mountain snow above 7000 ft. && .DISCUSSION... High clouds are here to stay for the next few days as upper level low pressure systems approach the region. We are still expecting that shortwave trough to push through this evening and overnight. Therefore, expect one more mild and mostly dry day. However, light rain and light mountain snow chances return after 4 PM this afternoon. The probabilities are low for the Tahoe Basin with a 10-20% this evening, and up to 30% overnight. South of US-50 the chances of precipitation are higher at 20-50%. HREF and REFS members still show minimal spillover to the eastern slopes of the Sierra, resulting in light accumulations. The best chances for snow remain near the Sierra crest and passes, where 1-3 inches of snow are likely with a 10-40% of exceeding 3 inches above 8000 ft through Friday afternoon. Isolated higher amounts are likely above 10 kft. Liquid equivalents at the crest will be around 0.1-0.3 inches. Rainfall amounts in elevations below 6500 ft will be very light from a trace to 0.05 inches at the most. I wouldn`t be surprised if there was a light and brief snow burst below 6500 ft due to saturation of the air, in the Tahoe Basin and portions of US-395 in Mono County. As we have been advertising the past few days, the forecast continues to be very dynamic with changes every day with this complex system. Some models are hinting at another smaller shortwave embedded in the flow on Friday afternoon and evening that may lead to more lingering snow showers near the Sierra crest. Plus the merger of the split flow that was expected in central and eastern NV is now closer to western NV and the Sierra. Thus, our chances for higher accumulations of rain and snow have increased. Furthermore, the ECMWF ensemble members are slowing down the progression of this system through Sunday night. So, uncertainty for timing, and precipitation amounts persists for the weekend system. At least snow levels have held around 6500-8500 ft depending on the type of moisture dominating the scenario as we have two different airmasses (warm vs. cold) clashing over the Sierra and the Great Basin. However, thinking for snow accumulations above 8000 ft in the Sierra we could observe 1-4 inches in the Carson Range and areas north of US-50, while south of US-50 amounts of 3-6 inches are likely with 30-70% chance of exceeding 6 inches above 9-10 kft, potentially up to 9 inches in isolated areas near the crest. The main concerns will be for mountain passes - keep an eye out if you have travel plans across the Sierra this weekend. Check your road maps with CalTrans and NDOT (for Mt. Rose Highway). Snow amounts between 6500-8000 ft will be around a trace up to 2 inches. The higher amounts in this range may be mostly due to brief snow bursts in isolated locations. By Monday, most of the moisture associated to the upper level system should be east of our area. A high amplitude upper ridge will take its place through at least mid-week. Models are still hinting at another system late week into the weekend again, but we`ll wait to be done with this weekend`s system before looking closer at that one. -HC && .AVIATION... VFR conditions prevail through this afternoon at all sites. VFR conditions continue for western NV sites through Friday. Periods of MVFR conditions are likely for Sierra sites including KTRK, KTVL and KMMH due to periods of light snow resulting in reductions of CIGs and VIS. KTRK and KTVL have a 10-25% chance of snow, while KMMH has a 25-40% chance of snow. Accumulations will be very light. Mountain obscurations are expected starting this evening. Winds will be generally below 10 kts with gusts to around 15 kts in the afternoon. Periods of LLWS and turbulence begin after 00Z this afternoon. -HC && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$

563 FXUS66 KSTO 282013 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 113 PM PDT Wed Oct 28 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool and mostly dry weather through Friday - Pattern change to unsettled weather Saturday into Sunday, with rain and mountain snow above 6000-7000 feet - High pressure will promote a drying and modest warming for Sunday and Monday - Breezy north to east winds Sunday into Monday && .DISCUSSION... ...Today through Friday... Cool and mostly dry weather pattern with light winds is expected to persist across northern interior California through Friday. Although, a weak surface high pressure is promoting a modest warming today. Afternoon highs in the mid 60s into low 70s for the Valleys, 55-65 in the Foothills and 50s-60s in the mountains today. Cold morning lows are expected for the mountains and higher elevation basins the next few days, with near to below freezing temperatures. Patchy fog or haze will be possible each morning in the Valley. A larger upper-level trough is expected to deepen offshore Thursday and Friday, with a series of embedded weak shortwave moving across the area. This will bring a slight chance of isolated mountain showers over the Sierra. Elsewhere, will see mostly increasing mid to high clouds. ...Saturday through Tuesday... A system will moves across the area Saturday into Sunday bringing an increasing chance of rain and mountain snow above 6000-7000 feet. Uncertainties remain on how much moisture will arrives across the area, as well on the exact amounts. There is a near 50% chances of measurable rain (0.01") for the Valley, with higher chances across the eastern portions of the forecast area. The chance for wetting rain (0.10") is 20-45% for the Valley, with the highest chances in Stockton and Modesto counties. While the models tend to agree that the higher rain chances will occur over the Sierra Foothills and mountains. The 25th percentiles shows 0.1-0.4 inches over the Sierra mountains Saturday into Sunday, the 75th percentile range 0.75-1 inch and the 90th percentile showing 1.5-2 inches. The Sierra foothills have a 90th percentile of 0.8-1.5 inches of rain throughout Sunday. As for the Valleys, 90th percentiles between 0.1 to 0.5 inches for the Sacramento Valley and 0.7 to 1 inch for the northern San Joaquin Valley. Colder air aloft will bring an increasing instability on Saturday, capable of produce brief heavy downpours and a chance of isolated thunderstorms. Snow levels are expected to be above 7000 feet on Saturday, lowering to 6000-7000 feet Saturday night into Sunday. There is a 35 to 60% chances of snowfall exceeding 3 inches for the higher terrain over the Sierra Saturday into Sunday, especially south of the US-50. Ensemble cluster shows a ridge building in right after the trough exits on Sunday. Resulting in drying and modest warming Sunday through early next week. Breezy to east northerly winds are expected to developed across the area, with the strongest winds over the Sierra. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions prevail across interior NorCal next 24 hours. Surface wind gusts generally below 12 kts. Low probabilities of BR developing around 10z Thursday at the northern San Joaquin Valley TAF sites. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

672 FXUS65 KMSO 290850 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 250 AM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Anticipate cooler temperatures and periods of valley rain and mountain snow Saturday evening through Monday morning. Radar currently shows weak returns northwest of Missoula. Some of these returns may be producing light precipitation, especially in the mountains. Use caution during the morning commute if traveling across Lookout or Marias Passes as slick driving may be present although this is a very low probability outcome. The rest of the day trends drier and these conditions will continue into Friday. Temperatures will remain near normal for this time of year, but physically it might feel cool as cloud cover limits the warmth of sunshine, especially on Friday. The next system arrives on Saturday, snow levels which begin above 6000 feet may lower to 4500 feet on Sunday. The majority of precipitation will fall south of I-90 and a trace to 3 slushy inches may accumulate at Lost Trail Pass, most elevations of Lemhi County ID, and higher valleys of southwest MT. Sunday morning at Lost Trail Pass there may be brief periods of winter driving conditions. High pressure is forecast through at least midweek (3-5 Nov) with temperatures returning a few degrees above normal. This time of year high pressure would allow for valley inversions, which could keep valleys from full warming potential along with patchy morning fog or low stratus clouds. && .AVIATION...A weak disturbance is producing mid level clouds with no measurable precipitation at area terminals. Winds will remain light but a northeasterly gradient develops today. High pressure builds throughout the day and will keep flying conditions as VFR but cloud cover remains over the region. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

501 FXUS65 KBOI 290720 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 120 AM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry Today, with near normal temperatures. - Precipitation chances increasing across higher terrain Friday afternoon. Becoming widespread Saturday afternoon into Sunday. - A drying and warming trend will set in Monday, through at least midweek. && .SHORT TERM /Through Saturday Night/... This afternoon will feature warmer temps and increasing high- clouds in southwesterly flow aloft. Temperatures this afternoon will be around 60 degrees in lower elevations of SW-Idaho and in the 50s in the Oregon high desert and higher Idaho basins. A weak shortwave will move northeast over the area this evening. While moisture availability remains somewhat limited, sufficient moisture will advect northward to south-central Idaho to support isolated to scattered showers late Thursday night through Friday. As this shortwave departs, a brief dry period will occur Friday night, barring a continued 20-50% chance of precipitation in the far eastern portions of our CWA. Come Halloween, a closed low with an elongated southern trough will begin encroaching upon our area. Ahead of this trough, a good pull of Pacific moisture will overspread our area, allowing for precipitable water values to reach around the 90th percentile in southwest Idaho. This moisture will allow for increasing precipitation chances across the area through Saturday, peaking Saturday evening and night (60-90% chance, highest in SW-Idaho) as the greatest forcing for ascent overspreads our area. The day shift made a good argument for a Mary Poppins costume, as an umbrella would make a good addition to any costume for evening festivities. Over the course of Saturday evening through Sunday, liquid precipitation totals are generally 0.5-1 inch in northern mountains, 0.20-0.50 inches in lower elevations and southern mountains, and then 0.01 to 0.20 in eastern Oregon. The southwesterly flow aloft will keep snow-levels elevated to 6.5- 8.5 kft MSL with the bulk of the precipitation, limiting snow accumulations across the area. While they will eventually lower to 3.5-5kft MSL behind the cold front, which passes through the area Sunday, this will coincide with as precipitation tapers off behind the departing system. This will keep much of the snow above 6.5kft MSL, with totals trending down with the snow levels trending higher. Over the course of the same period above, elevations above 6.5kft MSL would see a dusting to a few inches of snow (although the highest peaks in the Sawtooths could see several). && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/... Showers will continue through Sunday, tapering off throughout the day as the system departs, with QPF details in the short-term. Snow levels Sunday will have lowered to 4.5-6.5kft MSL (increasing from west to east), allowing for a chance of snow/wintry mix down to around 4.5 kft MSL Sunday in E-Oregon, with little to no accumulation expected that low. Sunday afternoon and evening will feature gusty winds following the cold frontal passage, with west to northwest gusts of 20-40 mph (strongest in the typical windy portions of the Snake River Plain. Beginning Monday, the area will be dry with a warming trend through Thursday, although seasonable temperatures are anticipated throughout. While there will be multiple opportunities for weak shortwaves to pass over the area, moisture will be limited and the shortwaves will just result in periods of increased high clouds. && .AVIATION /06Z Thursday through Friday/... Issued 1123 PM MDT WED OCT 28 2026 Generally VFR. Localized LIFR/IFR conditions with patchy freezing fog and low stratus in high elevation valleys in southeast Oregon. Mountains obscured in fog and low stratus. Surface winds: variable less than 10 kt through morning, then NE-SE 5-15 kt by early PM. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW-S 20-30 kt. KBOI...VFR. Increasing high cloud cover through the day. Surface winds: E-SE 5-10 kt, with gusts to 20 kt by late morning. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM....NF AVIATION.....SA

949 FXUS65 KLKN 290822 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 122 AM PDT Thu Oct 29 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Increasing precipitation chances this weekend from several upper level trough systems. * Cooler temperatures reaching several degrees below normal over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Thursday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Large and complex upper level trough of low pressure is starting to make its way on shore. Models are still showing a complex upper level setup consisting of a large parent longwave trough that will stretch along the entire west coast. Making up the trough trough are up to four local maximums in vorticity, that will act as a focus for the development of showers and thunderstorms that will last through Monday morning. The first will be a weak shallow shortwave that will lead the parent trough, moving through central NV Thursday afternoon as it dissipates. Friday through Sunday, the main trough energy will push in with three remaining vorticity maximums. One off the coast of Washington, one off the southern California channel Islands, and a third in the middle off of the SF Bay area. Models have shown some consistency that this middle vorticity max will become the dominant area of lift as it moves over Nevada, as the southern low now looks to become absorbed by the dominant trough segment. Model timing has also become more consistent as the bulk of the precipitation looks to fall on Sunday, with isolated to scattered showers possible Friday and Saturday. Current multi-day precipitation amounts have risen some more given the slower movement with about a trace to 0.45 of rain for passes and valleys, with up to 0.50 to an inch plus of water for the higher passes and mountains. Snow levels will again start high at 9000 feet, dropping to about 7000 feet by Sunday. With a trace to 0.5 possible for the higher elevation passes passes, and up to 1 foot of snow for the range peaks. Monday afternoon high pressure will build in as the trough departs bringing quieter weather back into the region this ridge will be in place at least through Thursday, as models are wanting to bring another trough through Nevada for the following weekend. Temperatures will be near to, to slightly below normal for the weekend,and into next week as high will range in the upper 40s to upper 50s, with lows in the mid 20s to upper 30s. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence for the potential for several rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms starting late Thursday afternoon, and persisting on and off through early Monday morning. There is high confidence in the return of upper ridging Monday afternoon through at least Tuesday of next week which will bring quiet, dry conditions for the region. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions look to be the primary flight conditions through Friday morning. Upper level system approaching Nevada will bring a chance for VCSH and VCTS for KELY, KEKO, and KENV for the afternoon to evening, while shift winds to the S to SW at 5KT to 15KT with gusts up to 25KT possible. && .FIRE WEATHER... Fire Weather conditions will be low next several days for all zones. A large upper level storm system is expected to move across the west coast beginning this afternoon, an exiting Monday morning. Several rounds of isolated to scattered rain showers, a few thunderstorms, and mountain snowfall will be possible, even as wind remain on the breezy side out of the S to SW at similar speeds of 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH possible. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...98 AVIATION...98 FIRE WEATHER...98