352 FXUS66 KSEW 151806 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 1038 AM PDT Fri May 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS...A very cool upper level trough will move over Western Washington today and remain over the area through Saturday night. Upper level ridge building offshore Sunday with Western Washington on the backside of the ridge through the middle of next week. && .UPDATE...A broad area of precipitation is making its way across western Washington late this morning. Destabilization could lead to thunderstorm activity today with at least a 15-20% chance of thunder area wide, meanwhile the best chances (25-35%) will be along the coast and into the north interior. Lightning, small hail, and brief heavy downpours will be the primary hazards. A Winter Weather Advisory was added for the mountains of western Washington above 4000 feet. This was put out mainly as a heads up for those with outdoor recreation plans today through Saturday night. Snow showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Road travel conditions could see minor temporary impacts, but generally ground temperatures will be warm enough to limit road accumulation. Widespread chances for thunder exist through Saturday, though the focus of the convective potential will shift into the central Puget Sound south through SW Washington (peaking in the 25-35% range). -Wolcott && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy skies over Western Washington early this morning. Doppler radar has widely scattered showers mainly over the northern portion of the area. Temperatures at 2 am/09z were in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Main story for the next two days is the very cool upper level trough over Western Washington. The trough will move over the area today and remain into Saturday night. Temperatures aloft very cold for this time of year with 500 mb temperatures dropping below -30C tonight into Saturday. Even with plenty of cloud cover and little daytime heating the very cold air aloft will create unstable conditions especially this afternoon through Saturday. Lifted indexes in the plus 2 to minus 2 range, convective temperatures both this afternoon and Saturday afternoon below the predicted high temperatures, lapse rates with the very cold air aloft in the plus 7 to 8C/km. All this adds up to showers through Saturday with a chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Snow levels, already low near 4000 feet this morning, lowering to 3000 to 3500 feet tonight and Saturday. Could see a couple of inches of snow at the summit of Stevens Pass while higher up Paradise on Mount Rainier looking at 4 to 8 inches of new snow the next two days. Highs in the lower to mid 50s today and mid to upper 50s Saturday. Highs today will only be a couple of degrees warmer than record low maximums. Lows tonight in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Upper level trough weakening Saturday night and moving out of the area Sunday. Convective activity coming to an end Saturday evening. A few breaks in the clouds cover will allow temperatures to drop into the mid 30s in the colder locations Sunday morning. Lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s for the remainder of the area. Upper level ridge building offshore Sunday. Plenty of low level moisture over Western Washington combined with light flow in the lower levels will make it hard for the sun to break through especially in the morning. As the marine layer thins in the afternoon some sunshine will get highs into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Felton && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Models in good agreement with the upper level ridge remaining in place at least through Tuesday. Differences in the model solutions beginning Wednesday with some solutions moving the ridge inland over Western Washington while other solutions keep the ridge axis offshore. Either scenario keeps the weather dry over the area. The ridge axis moving overhead would result in a little warmer days. For now with the uncertainty will keep highs just a couple of degrees above normal Wednesday and Thursday, in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Highs Monday and Tuesday in the 60s. Lows in the 40s through the period. && .AVIATION... W/SW flow aloft through tonight, veering to the NW Saturday morning. At low levels, S winds for all but the coast, where winds are W. Speeds ranging 10-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts. VFR conditions with areas of MVFR conditions with showers, with some recovery after 22Z allowing more widespread low-end VFR, except for those locations with lingering precipitation. KSEA...MVFR conditions with light rain. Some improvement expected during the afternoon. Southwesterly winds throughout the TAF period with speeds 8-12 kts this morning, becoming 10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts this afternoon and early evening before easing tonight. For Saturday, HiRes ensembles consistently showing the development of a PSCZ Saturday afternoon with a 40-50% chance of northerly winds at the terminal by 3pm, and higher odds by 5-6PM. In addition, there is 15 to 20% chance of lightning with the convergence zone through the same period. && .MARINE... Onshore flow will continue over the weekend which will allow for daily pushes through the Strait of Juan De Fuca. However, given the more southwesterly flow of winds...they may not see such a strong push today...that remains on track for Saturday though. These southwesterly winds however do look to trigger advisory level winds for the Puget Sound for much of the day today before easing by this evening. As such, an SCA has gone out with the morning forecast package. Near-shore seas will steadily increase today, likely topping out at 7 to 9 ft. The outer waters however will see more significant increases, reaching 9 to 12 ft late tonight and persisting throughout much of Saturday. As such, have issued an SCA this morning to cover this high seas threat. Seas might be slow to regress, but they are expected to slowly ease back down to 7 to 9 ft Sunday morning. 18 && .HYDROLOGY... The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the start of the next rainy season; it will only be updated during this time as needed. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM PDT Sunday for Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Cascades of Southern King County- Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties-Olympics. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM PDT this evening for Puget Sound and Hood Canal. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM PDT Saturday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm. && $$

789 FXUS66 KPQR 151810 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 1110 AM PDT Fri May 15 2026 Updated aviation discussion. && .SYNOPSIS...Showers return this morning to the northern coast, spreading inland this afternoon as a weak frontal system moves across the area. Low pressure over western Washington and upper level troughing will maintain showers with seasonably cool temperatures through Saturday, as well as a 10-20% chance of afternoon thunderstorms, generally north of Salem. Cooler temps will also bring snow levels down to 3500-4000 ft, allowing for light snow along the Cascade passes tonight through Saturday night. Drier and warmer weather returns Sunday through next week as high pressure re- builds. && .DISCUSSION...Water vapor satellite imagery early this morning shows the leading edge of an upper level jet stream over the northern Pacific pushing toward the PacNW. This will push another relatively weak frontal system across the area, with the highest chances for precipitation along the coast and northern portions of the forecast area through this evening. This system will also bring breezy southwesterly winds with gusts up to 25 mph across the area later this afternoon. Broad upper level troughing dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska will slide across the region tonight cooling temperatures aloft, with ensembles suggesting 850 mb temps dropping down to around -2 C. This will allow snow levels to fall to around 3500-4000 ft (lowest across the SW Washington Cascades). Weak surface low pressure will linger near the Puget Sound tonight through Saturday while shortwave disturbances maintain shower activity overnight through at least Saturday afternoon. Orographics of the Coast Range and Cascades will likely enhance precipitation as west to northwesterly flow persists. This may lead to some accumulating snow, especially at higher elevations. Latest guidance suggests there is anywhere from a 20-60% chance of exceeding 6 inches of snow (in a 24-hr period) at Cascade passes, highest near Government Camp. If planning on traveling to the Cascades, make sure to check the latest forecast, refer to ODOT/WSDOT for the latest road conditions, and pack an emergency supply kit. Considering many of the forest roads are free of snow from the early melt-out and access to unmaintained roads is growing, the lower snow levels may catch people off guard if they are unprepared for cold, wet, and even snowy conditions. While rainfall amounts in the lowlands are expected to be light and non-impactful, there is also a 15-20% chance for short-lived thunderstorms Saturday afternoon, mainly from Lincoln City/Salem northward. Colder air aloft filtering in from the passing trough will gradually increase atmospheric instability, especially in the afternoon, though only about 100-300 J/kg of skinny CAPE. Any thunderstorms that do develop may produce lightning, brief heavy downpours, small hail, and erratic winds. After seasonably cool temperatures today and Saturday, expect a warming trend to return Sunday through early next week. As the upper level trough shifts east, expect high pressure to return back over the region. Ensemble guidance is is general agreement that upper level ridging builds into the NE Pacific. But, there remains uncertainty with how far east the ridge progresses toward the PacNW. The farther east the ridge does shift over the Pacific NW, temperatures are more likely to see higher end amounts, mid to upper 70s by the middle of next week. If the region stays under more northwesterly flow aloft, afternoon temps would be more likely to remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s. The majority of ensemble guidance does return to mostly dry conditions for next week. /DH && .AVIATION...Predominately VFR conditions continue as shower activity increases over the forecast area. Another front is on its way through northern OR with chances for MVFR CIGs increasing through the afternoon. Rain is expected to spread south and east through the day, with chances for MVFR conditions developing at KONP and KAST increasing to around 30-50% by 21z. Chances for MVFR conditions inland generally remain around 30% or less after 00z Saturday, highest near KPDX/KTTD and northward. Southwesterly winds are also expected to increase this afternoon, with gusts up to 25 kt at the coast and to around 20 kt inland. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Predominately VFR conditions are expected through the period, though chances for MVFR increase this afternoon into this evening to around 20-30% as rain showers increase across the area. Southwest winds are expected to increase to around 9-13 kt with gusts up to 20 kt later this afternoon. -19/DH && .MARINE...Onshore winds continue today into the weekend as a weak frontal passage will bring another round of elevated westerly winds with gusts up to 25 kt later this afternoon. A mid-period west-northwesterly swell will also help build seas to around 10 to 12 ft tonight into Saturday morning. Therefore, Small Craft Advisories remain in effect this afternoon through late Saturday. Additionally, very strong ebb currents across the Columbia River Bar early Friday and Saturday mornings will shorten the wave period and result in steeper seas. Northerly to northwesterly winds return Sunday into early next week while seas ease to around 4 to 8 ft as high pressure builds offshore. Strong currents during morning ebb tides will continue daily through Thursday, potentially yielding steep and hazardous seas for small craft crossing area bars through much of the week. /DH && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ210-251-271- 272. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Saturday to 2 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ252-253-273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

187 FXUS66 KMFR 152113 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 213 PM PDT Fri May 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Seasonable temperatures are expected this afternoon/evening with breezy to gusty winds. * Two disturbances, one tonight into Saturday morning and another Saturday night into Sunday will bring cooler temperatures and enhanced WNW afternoon winds along with marine pushes along the coast and into the Umpqua Basin through the weekend. * Light rain is possible along the coast and north of the Rogue- Umpqua Divide on Saturday. Snow levels down to around 4000 feet in the Cascades. * Localized frost is possible Saturday night, but more likely Sunday night in some west side valleys. Highest chances are in the Illinois and Applegate valleys Sunday night, and portions of the lower Klamath River Valley in western-central Siskiyou County. Near and below freezing temperatures are likely in the Scott/Shasta valleys and east of the Cascades. && .DISCUSSION...Last night`s marine push brought only a few hundredths of rain to the coast/coast range mountains in Coos/western Douglas counties with just some clouds across the Umpqua Basin down to around the Rogue Valley this morning. Except for a few cumulus hanging near the terrain, the lower clouds have mostly dissipated here this afternoon, though they`ve been more persistent N&W of Roseburg. Some high cirrus are moving in now ahead of another fast-moving disturbance arriving in WNW flow aloft. The main vort max with this disturbance will swing across Washington into Idaho/NW Montana on Saturday. Another cold front with a fairly deep marine push is expected with some light rain along the coast and into the Umpqua Basin into Saturday morning. The snow level Saturday morning is forecast to be around 4000 feet, so some wet snow could fall in the Cascades, especially near and north of Union Creek Saturday morning. Again though, precip amounts will be light, and generally just a couple of hundredths (maybe a tenth in some lucky spots). Some models show a slight chance of precip south of the Umpqua Divide Saturday morning (so we can`t completely rule out a few sprinkles around the valley), but, NBM probs are 10-25%. Probably no more than a trace of rain here in Medford. Saturday will be cooler with more clouds than on Friday and highs only 60-65F for the west side valleys. High temps in the 50s to low 60s can be expected over the East Side. Expect another breezy afternoon for most locations. Saturday night into Sunday, the main upper trough will dig across southern Idaho/NE Nevada and into northern Utah with back side energy swinging southward through SW Oregon and into NorCal. This could lead to some light precip again, especially near the mountains, but it`ll remain dry elsewhere with a colder continental air mass moving in on north-northeast flow. Snow levels Saturday night will be down to valley floors east of the Cascades, any precip should be snow. Even so, travel impacts are unlikely with amounts generally an inch or less. The colder air mass will remain in place Sunday into Monday, so we could be looking a temperatures dropping into the low to mid 30s for some of the typically colder west side valleys. Right now, this looks like a set up for patchy frost in portions of the Illinois and Applegate valleys, but also some of the colder spots in the Rogue Valley (outlying areas of Medford). Lows both mornings (Sun/Mon) look to be in the 33-37F range. It looks like too much cloud cover and/or wind for Sunday morning and duration of temps that low won`t be long enough. Better chance is Monday morning as the upper trough moves east, heights rise and the air mass dries out. Since upper level heights rise next week, we expect a mostly dry pattern along with a warming trend. Temperatures rise to around normal Monday, then back to above normal levels Tue-Thu. We`ll remain in WNW flow aloft during this time period with weak disturbances pushing by to the north every now and then. This means that while it will turn warmer, no huge heat waves are expected. Also, marine layer intrusions are likely to continue at the coast during the nights/mornings; any of the deeper ones could produce a little drizzle near the coast. NBM has a dry forecast through at least next Friday and perhaps even into next weekend, which would heighten fire weather concerns due to rapidly drying fuels. Lightning risk during this period though is low since moisture will be limited. Models are hinting at the potential for a long wave trough to enter the picture toward the last week of May with a potential cool down back to normal and this is in line with the 8-14 day CPC forecast at the moment. -Spilde && .AVIATION...15/18Z TAFs...VFR prevails most areas late this morning. Satellite imagery is showing some broken ceilings at or around 5000 feet over Coos and Douglas counties. Expect gusty winds (20-30 kt) this afternoon with increasing high clouds. Another disturbance with a deep marine push will move in tonight. This will cause areas of light rain/drizzle along the coast and over to the Cascades along with a mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings. Some higher terrain will become obscured. Most precip will fizzle south of the Rogue-Umpqua Divide, but there could be a little light rain or drizzle up against the terrain of the Siskiyous due to the increased depth of the marine layer. With snow levels dropping to around 4000 feet by Saturday morning, some light snow may mix in as well down to that elevation. Onshore flow will keep a mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings near and west/north of the Cascades/Siskiyous into Saturday afternoon with mainly VFR south of there. With low pressure sliding southward over the area Saturday night into Sunday morning, some cloud cover and light precip will linger, primarily around the mountains. -Spilde && .MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Friday, May 15, 2026...Gusty north to northwest winds and steep seas are expected for areas from Gold Beach southward through this evening. Steep seas expand northward to all areas by Saturday as an increasing swell builds into the waters. North winds will also strengthen late Saturday. Strongest winds and highest seas are expected from Gold Beach southward. Multiple northwest swell trains will move through area waters into early next week with persistent gusty north winds. At a minimum, this will maintain steep seas for much of the area through mid next week. However, the sustained northerly fetch Sunday through Thursday could build very steep seas south of Cape Blanco. North winds also could approach gale force at times, especially during the late afternoon/evening hours. We`ve added a hazardous seas watch south of Cape Blanco since it looks like at least a 4-5 day period of persistent northerly winds/very steep steep seas (starting Sunday afternoon). We`ve run it into Monday evening for now, but probably will need to extend it as confidence increases in the duration of the event. -Spilde && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Hazardous Seas Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for PZZ356-376. && $$

954 FXUS66 KEKA 150745 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 1245 AM PDT Fri May 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Gusty north winds each afternoon will be the highlight of the forecast through the weekend with otherwise mild and sunny conditions. Winds will weaken as warmer conditions begin early next week. && .KEY MESSAGES... -Strong north winds will build each afternoon this weekend. Strongest winds expected along shore and over higher terrain areas over interior. Peak gusts Today near 30 kts and peak Gusts Saturday and Sunday near 40 kts. -Generally clear skies and dry conditions, even along shore, through early next week. -Slightly cooler conditions into the weekend and warming through next week. && .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...A broad, weak low will swing through the Pacific Northwest. Today and through the weekend, Northwest California is projected to see an influx of moisture and cooler air with the potential for some localized areas of drizzle early each morning, mostly around coastal protected valleys of the King Range and Humboldt Bay. While the trough moves through to the north, a strong ridge of high pressure will continue to build over the Central Pacific this weekend. A pressure gradient will tighten and align along shore into the weekend as high pressure continues to build, but stall, offshore. This will bring unusually strong northwest winds this weekend along the coast and across most higher terrain areas of the interior. North winds will gust near 30 mph in exposed areas by this afternoon with 40 mph gusts by Saturday afternoon. Winds will be stubbornly consistent and widespread in the afternoon, though gusts will most likely stay below advisory criteria with limited potential for impacts or damage. The wind will pull marine influence far inland and keep low levels well mixed, generally limiting high temperatures to the mid 60s and 70s. Coastal conditions will remain cool despite winds keeping skies mostly clear. .LONG TERM...High pressure will begin to push inland Sunday and into early next week. The strongest North winds will shift towards the Sacramento Valley in response while winds will remain breezy near shore on Sunday, the strongest winds will shift to Lake County with gusts over 40 mph at high elevations and along the rim of the Sacramento Valley. At the same time, north winds on Sunday will pull more air from the interior, promoting very dry conditions, especially far from the coast. Winds will begin to weaken early next week as high pressure settles further onshore. Conditions will remain very dry with interior highs gradually approaching the 90s by mid week. Any HeatRisk currently appears minor at most. A building inversion and weaker winds will likely allow a very shallow marine layer to begin reforming onshore, though offshore flow overnight will generally limit the extent of any stratus. There remains essentially no chance of rain or thunderstorms through next week. /JHW&JLW && .AVIATION...In general, VFR conditions will prevail through Northwest California. The exception will be for more wind protected coastal areas, such as around Humboldt Bay where coastal stratus has a chance to develop. If stratus does develop along protected coastal areas, MVFR conditions are anticipated. Any coastal stratus that does develop will dissipate as north winds strengthen into the afternoon. Gusts from 20 to 30 knots can be expected for terminals in Northwest California this afternoon/evening. /JLW && .MARINE...Northerly winds continue to strengthen today across the coastal waters, with the strongest winds south of Cape Mendocino. Strong to near-gale sustained winds for the southern waters, while moderate to strong breezes for the northern waters. Winds will diminish to moderate breezes north of Cape Mendocino tonight as a progressive and dry cold front moves trough. In the wake of the front, strengthening north winds will form across all waters. Gusts up to around 40 kts are likely south of Cape Mendocino today with the tightening pressure gradient near shore. A Gale Warning remains in effect for the southern waters, but now through late Sunday night. While a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the northern waters through Saturday morning. By Saturday, northerly winds accelerate across all waters with near- gale to gale force gusts across all coastal waters and persist through the weekend. There is a moderate to high confidence (60-90%) for gale force gusts across the northern waters Saturday afternoon through late Sunday night. A Gale Watch is in effect for zones 450 and 470 from Saturday afternoon through late Sunday night. Winds are expected to remain elevated early next week due to the strong pressure gradient. Large, steep wind-driven seas will spread over all zones through the weekend and early next week./ZVS && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ450-470. Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for PZZ450-470. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for PZZ455. Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ455. Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

922 FXUS66 KMTR 151932 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1232 PM PDT Fri May 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1229 PM PDT Fri May 15 2026 - Breezy and gusty winds this afternoon into the weekend - Hazardous marine conditions expected this afternoon into the weekend - Elevated fire weather conditions continue through Monday across the interior with low humidities and strong gusts - Blustery winds for all beaches into the weekend and hazardous beach conditions for west facing beaches this afternoon through Monday morning && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1229 PM PDT Fri May 15 2026 (This evening through Monday) Skies are generally clear across the Bay Area and Central Coast as the fringes of an upper level ridge continue to impact the region. Any stratus formation tonight should be limited in extent, possibly confined to favored valley or mountaintop locations. High temperatures today range from the upper 70s to the upper 80s inland, the upper 60s to upper 70s along the bays and the upper 50s to middle 60s along the Pacific coast. Highs through the weekend will dip into the 70s to the lower 80s inland, and the upper 60s to middle 70s near the Bays. The upper level pattern features a trough axis moving parallel to the coast of British Columbia and a ridge stalled out over the eastern Pacific. As that trough axis moves into the Pacific Northwest through the day, the pressure gradient should increase and lead to a strengthening of the wind gusts across the region. Wind gusts will reach 35 to 45 mph today along the coast, through gaps and passes, and across the ridgelines today, while gusts of 20 to 30 miles per hour are expected to develop elsewhere. Notably, unlike the traditional diurnal wind patterns, winds will not diminish overnight across the coast and at the higher elevations. Indeed, at the higher elevations, the strongest winds may occur during the nighttime as a decoupled atmosphere exposes these areas to strong jets aloft. Saturday and Sunday look to be the peak of this wind event as the upper level trough continues to crawl into the northern Rockies through Sunday, further tightening the pressure gradient across the state, before dropping into the Great Basin on Sunday and setting off the inside slider pattern. This is also the time that a strong jet develops at and just off the coast south of Cape Mendocino and especially to the south of Point Arena. Wind gusts along the coastal regions inch up to around the 40 to 45 mph (locally up to 50 mph) range, with gusts around 35 to 45 mph through the San Bruno gap and the northern Salinas Valley, and 25 to 35 mph elsewhere. Winds will peak Sunday night into Monday morning for the interior mountains of the North and East Bay down into parts of the Santa Cruz Mountains, as a jet of downsloping air comes down from the Klamath Mountains and the northern Sierra Nevada and through the Sacramento Valley. Gusts of 40 to 45 mph, locally up to 50 mph, are expected along the ridgelines. With the potential mixing down of the intense winds aloft down to the surface I`ve considered issuing a Wind Advisory for the immediate coast on Saturday. The latest guidance from the NAM suggests a couple of timeframes, one on Saturday morning and another Saturday evening into the overnight period, when 925 mb winds (that is, winds around 2,500 ft above sea level) reach 40 to 55 knots across the coastal regions. Should these winds mix down to the surface, the coastal regions will reach Wind Advisory criteria easily. The main source of uncertainty then is whether the winds will mix down to the surface, and high resolution models are showing some signs that it`s possible at favored coastal locations -- think Point Reyes, or Pillar Point near Half Moon Bay. What we haven`t seen is those wind gusts over a wide enough area to warrant a Wind Advisory across the coastal zones. The night shift will re-evaluate the situation and may issue a Wind Advisory if warranted. Wind Advisory or not, the strong gusts will still result in significant impacts to those impacted by them, including loose branches, isolated downed trees resulting in potential power outages, blowing sand across beaches, and difficult driving conditions for high profile vehicles. Now is the time to bring in loose items outdoors, while the winds are still relatively calm. In addition, the strong northwest to north winds will result in large and turbulent waves across the beaches, and dry to very dry conditions in the interior which will elevate the fire weather danger through Monday. Sunday and Monday looks to be the driest days as the daytime relative humidities reach 10 to 25% across the interior and within the higher elevations of the coastal ranges. See the BEACHES and FIRE WEATHER sections for more details on these threats. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1229 PM PDT Fri May 15 2026 (Monday night through next Thursday) By Monday afternoon, the upper level low will weaken and pull away into the northern Rockies, allowing the pressure gradient to slacken and a developing upper level ridge over the eastern Pacific to begin influencing the weather pattern. With California sitting between the building ridge and the lingering trough, high temperatures across the region are still a little uncertain. Continuing to see the NBM output run a little warm for the next work week, so after collaboration with our neighbors and national centers, the high temperature forecast was tamped down by as much as 3 to 5 degrees, especially along the coastal and valley regions. The general pattern will be for highs in the 80s to the lower 90s inland, the middle 70s to the middle 80s near the bays, and the 60s to lower 70s along the Pacific coast. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1025 AM PDT Fri May 15 2026 Currently VFR at all terminals with the exception of some mist and haze being observed at HAF and SNS respectively. High confidence in VFR through the TAF period; however, haze will reduce slant range visibilities. Winds will strengthen through the morning, becoming strong and gusty this afternoon and evening with widespread gusts of 25 to 35 knots expected. Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with northwesterly flow. High confidence in VFR through the TAF period. Winds will continue to back and strengthen through the morning, becoming strong and gusty this afternoon. Gusts up to 30 knots are likely this afternoon and evening with isolated gusts up to 35 knots possible. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with northwesterly flow at MRY and MVFR with westerly flow and haze at SNS. Aside from haze, high confidence in VFR through the TAF period. Onshore winds will continue to strengthen through the morning, becoming moderate and gusty this afternoon and evening. && .MARINE... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1025 AM PDT Fri May 15 2026 Widespread hazardous marine conditions are expected today and through the weekend. Strong to near gale force northerly breezes will increase through the weekend to become near gale force to gale force with widespread severe gale force gusts. Isolated storm force gusts are expected along the coastal jet region of Big Sur. Rough to very rough seas will build as a result. Conditions will slowly begin to improve Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 511 AM PDT Fri May 15 2026 Gusty offshore winds are building and strengthen through the weekend, leading to elevated fire concerns. Peak gusts above 30 mph for most areas are expected, with around 40 to 50 mph along the coast, through gaps and passes, and across the ridgelines. Very low daytime humidities of 15-25% will prevail across the interior regions and higher peaks, with reduced overnight humidity recoveries. Strong winds persist into the early part of Monday before diminishing, but humidities will be slow to recover as a modest offshore flow continues into the work week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1229 PM PDT Fri May 15 2026 A Beach Hazards Statement will go into effect for west facing beaches along the Pacific Coast from 3 PM today through 9 AM Monday due to strong winds over the marine environment leading to hazardously strong wind waves and overall rough seas. Dangerous swimming, boating, and surfing conditions can be expected. Large breaking waves can overpower swimmers resulting in significant physical injury and increase the risk of drowning. Gusts will stay strong along the immediate coast, causing blowing and drifting sand and increased sea spray. Water rescue attempts may be hampered by reduced visibilities from the sea spray. Remember, NEVER turn your back on the ocean. RGass/DialH && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for CAZ006-505- 509-530. Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ506. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Mry Bay. Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay. Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0- 10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0- 10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0- 10 nm. Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday evening for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...DialH LONG TERM....DialH AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

321 FXUS66 KOTX 151754 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1054 AM PDT Fri May 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy winds and mostly mountain showers expected through Saturday, including isolated areas of blowing dust where precipitation is limited. - Cooler temperatures will bring a threat of morning frost starting in the sheltered northern valleys Friday and Saturday, then expanding to more of the area Sunday morning. This would be impactful to any sensitive plants or crops. && .UPDATE... A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the Stevens Pass area from 8 PM tonight through 11 AM Saturday morning. An incoming weather system will result in increasing precipitation along the Cascade crest through the day. But the warm road temperatures of mid-May will make it difficult to stick other than grassy surfaces. This is expected to change tonight with the setting sun, as well as increasing lapse rates as the cold pool associated with the upper low moves overhead combined with low level upslope westerly flow. This will result in moderate to locally heavy snow showers, with 4 to 6 inches forecast to call through Saturday morning. JW && .SYNOPSIS... Breezy winds and chances for mostly mountain showers and thunderstorms linger Thursday through Saturday. Some frost is possible toward Friday into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Friday through Sunday: The weekend will remain active as another shortwave moves through the forecast area. This will result in colder than normal temperatures, continued gusty winds, rain showers, and mountain snow. The low that moves through tomorrow will be the strongest of the multiple shortwaves that tracked through the area. This continued westerly flow will cross the Cascade gaps and spill into the rest of the basin, keeping winds elevated through Saturday. Expect wind gusts 20-25 mph each afternoon through Saturday, with stronger gusts 30-40 mph along the Cascade gaps. Though wind headlines are looking unlikely, impacts such as blowing unsecured objects and small tree limbs alongside difficult driving conditions for high profile vehicles could be seen. This low will bring precipitation to the area, but it will not be widespread due to rain shadowing in the deeper basin. Precipitation will be mostly confined to the mountains and fall Saturday morning through evening. Only mountain areas will see more than 0.10 inches of rain, with Spokane, Lewiston, Pullman, and Omak seeing a couple hundredths of an inch. This will be a colder system, with 850mb temperatures 5-10 degrees lower than normal. This will result in mountain passes seeing a return of snow and associated travel impacts. Through Sunday, Stevens Pass has a 50% chance of seeing 6 or more inches of snow. Lookout Pass will receive less, with a 60% chance of 2 inches or more of snow. Much of this snow will fall Saturday. Travelers should prepare for wintry travel conditions across mountain passes over the weekend. Overnight temperatures through Monday will be 5-10 degrees cooler than normal, falling into the mid-30s. Given that growing season has started, frost impacts look likely. Tonight, there is a Frost Advisory out for the Northeast Mountains, Okanogan Highlands, and Western Okanogan County, which have a 60% chance of seeing overnight temperatures 36 degrees or lower. Coverage of 60%+ probabilities increases tonight into Saturday and expands down into the Spokane and Palouse area Saturday evening into Sunday. Frost Advisories are likely, and these temperatures could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. There is a chance for thunderstorms each afternoon and evening through Sunday as well as the low passes through. Tonight, thunderstorms will largely be confined to the Cascades and northern mountains. Through the weekend, lowering temperatures will increase lapse rates. CAPE values of 100-200 J/kg will be seen over northeast Washington and the Idaho Panhandle, resulting in a 20-30% chance of thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday evening. Monday through Wednesday: Clusters and long term models are in decent agreement of a strengthening upper level ridge moving in as the low pressure system tracks eastward. This will usher in temperatures warming to near or slightly above normal and drying conditions. Uncertainty in the long term pattern comes from 15% of clusters showing the low over the Central US retrograding back west, bringing cooler temperatures and more chances for precip. /AS && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFs: Another incoming weather system will bring increasing showers across the region starting in the Cascades and northern mountains today before expanding tonight into Saturday morning. Most of these showers in the lowlands will be isolated to scattered in coverage with the highest focus in the Cascades, NE Washington, and ID Panhandle due to swift mid level westerly flow resulting in some rain shadowing across Central Washington. Look for increasing clouds, with predominantly VFR conditions this afternoon into the evening. Then a moistening boundary layer from showers will lead to increasing areas of MVFR conditions over NE WA/N Idaho overnight into Saturday morning. There is also a slight for thunderstorms this afternoon mainly near the Canadian border. Breezy conditions will continue with west- southwest winds over the region. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Latest HREF guidance starting around 08z-11z tonight through 18z Saturday has a 60-90% chance of MVFR conditions developing at KPUW/KCOE, near 50% for KGEG/KSFF, 10% KLWS, AND 0% KEAT/KMWH. JW ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 58 39 55 35 61 37 / 0 30 60 20 20 10 Coeur d`Alene 56 39 51 35 58 37 / 0 50 80 30 30 10 Pullman 56 39 51 34 55 34 / 0 20 70 50 20 10 Lewiston 64 44 57 40 59 39 / 0 20 50 40 30 10 Colville 60 36 57 29 66 32 / 10 30 70 50 10 10 Sandpoint 55 39 49 35 58 36 / 10 50 80 40 40 10 Kellogg 55 36 47 35 55 35 / 10 60 100 50 60 20 Moses Lake 63 42 63 36 69 39 / 0 20 10 0 0 0 Wenatchee 60 42 61 42 68 45 / 10 20 0 0 0 0 Omak 61 38 60 37 69 41 / 30 20 50 10 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM PDT Saturday for Western Chelan County. ID...None. && $$

640 FXUS66 KPDT 152133 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 233 PM PDT Fri May 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - An upper low and trough will move across the region through early Sunday. - Mountain snow tonight, with the highest amounts over the Cascades. - Mountain thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. - Dry weather from Monday onward. && .DISCUSSION... An upper level low and trough was moving into the Pacific Northwest. On Saturday, it will be over the region and then by Sunday it will be moving eastward and out of the area. After the low departs the region, high pressure and dry weather will move in for most of the upcoming week. By the end of the week, high temperatures will average about 5 degrees above normal. As the low and trough move into the area tonight through Saturday morning, snow levels will drop. By Saturday morning, snow levels will be below 4000 feet across the Cascades and below 3500 feet across the Washington Cascades. Therefore, some snow is likely, with several inches possible even at pass level, especially the higher passes like White Pass where there could be 2 to 4 inches and possibly more. At the highest elevations there could be locations that even more. During the day, there would likely be a mix or a changeover to rain or at least any snow that falls would not accumulate. Additionally on Saturday, as the upper low moves across the area, there will be enough instability for thunderstorms in the mountains, though overall chances are generally <= 20 percent. By Sunday, precip chances shift eastward mainly to eastern Oregon, with the trough, and there is still at least low thunderstorm chances. Saturday looks breezy to windy once again, mainly along the Cascade gaps, Kittitas Valley, Columbia Basin, central Oregon and Blue Mountain Foothills. Wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph wind guts with gusts to 40 mph are possible. Will have to see how things develop to see if any wind headlines are needed, but guidance overperformed today. NBM probabilities of wind gusts >=47 mph is generally < 50 percent in these areas. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Wind gusts, mainly in the 25 to 30 kt range will continue through evening, then subside to 10 kts or less. Wind gusts in the 20 to 25 kt range are expected on Saturday, and should start to increase during the morning hours. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 40 59 37 62 / 10 20 30 10 ALW 43 58 40 62 / 30 60 50 10 PSC 41 65 38 69 / 10 20 20 0 YKM 37 64 37 70 / 10 10 0 0 HRI 39 63 37 67 / 10 10 10 0 ELN 32 56 34 63 / 40 10 10 0 RDM 31 54 26 59 / 10 10 10 0 LGD 37 51 34 54 / 40 60 50 20 GCD 36 52 32 55 / 10 30 50 10 DLS 43 60 40 67 / 70 30 20 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...77 AVIATION...77

559 FXUS65 KREV 151956 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1256 PM PDT Fri May 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Warm, above-average temperatures this afternoon. Typical westerly breezes with low humidity and poor overnight RH recovery continues across W.Nevada mid-slopes. * A series of cold fronts will bring 10-20 degrees of cooling over the weekend with gusty north winds and chances for light showers along the front on Sunday. * A warming trend will bring a return of above average temperatures for the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... One more day of warm, above average temperatures is expected this afternoon before a series of cold fronts bring gusty northerly winds and a temperature drop of about 20 degrees by Sunday. For this afternoon, expect dry and warm conditions, with highs reaching the lower 80s and the low 70s in Sierra valleys. A very dry air mass remains in place, with afternoon relative humidity dropping into the lower teens and even single digits. Another night of poor overnight RH recovery is expected (below 30%), mainly along mid-slopes across the western Nevada Basin and Range. A series of cold fronts is still on track to provide significant cooling over the weekend along with gusty winds. Highs drop to near average Saturday (low 70s western Nevada, mid-60s Sierra), then fall another 10 degrees Sunday (near 60 for western Nevada, mid-50s Sierra). Sustained winds strengthen from the northwest at 15-20 mph Saturday, shifting north to northeast at 15-25 mph Sunday, with a 60-70% chance of gusts up to 40 mph for areas mainly south of US-50. Areas across S.Lyon and Mineral counties could encounter stronger sustained northwest-north winds around 25-35 mph on Sunday. As such, a wind advisory has been issued for these areas on Sunday. These winds may generate blowing dust downwind of desert sinks, which may reduce visibility along parts of US-50 in Churchill County into Mineral and southern Lyon Counties. Additional impacts include difficult crosswinds for high-profile vehicles, aviation turbulence, and hazardous boating conditions. Lake wind advisories have also been issued for area lakes for both Saturday and Sunday due to the expected winds. A band of showers (10-20% chance) may accompany the main cold front Sunday morning, with light snow showers possible above 5500-6000 ft. Conditions turn drier and warmer early next week as the trough exits and high pressure builds, with highs returning to the 70s and 80s by Wednesday. Fuentes && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail through the weekend but with increasing winds Saturday into Sunday as as series of mostly dry cold fronts push through the region. Expect afternoon westerly afternoon wind gusts around 20kts this afternoon. Winds will begin to shift northerly on Saturday with gusts to around 25 kts Saturday and up to 45 kts near KHTH on Sunday. Blowing dust may reduce surface visibilities on Sunday over KNFL, KLOL, and KHTH. Rain and snow shower chances will be greatest Sunday(10-20% chance), with the best opportunity generally east of KLOL-KNFL. HRICH/Fuentes && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 5 PM Sunday to 5 AM PDT Monday NVZ002. Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Sunday NVZ003. Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 11 AM PDT Sunday NVZ001. Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Sunday NVZ001. Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 5 PM PDT Sunday NVZ004. CA...Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 11 PM PDT Sunday CAZ071. Lake Wind Advisory from 5 PM Sunday to 5 AM PDT Monday CAZ072. Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Sunday CAZ073. && $$

744 FXUS66 KSTO 151927 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1227 PM PDT Fri May 15 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - A Red Flag Warning is in effect for the Valley and Delta below 1000 feet from 5 AM Saturday until 8 PM Monday. - Critical fire weather concerns for the Valley & Delta, with gusty north winds and low humidity. Strongest winds Saturday night through Sunday along and west of the I-5 corridor. - Above-normal temperatures continue through the forecast period with Minor HeatRisk. && .DISCUSSION... ....Today... Weak ridging and westerly flow aloft will promote above-normal temperatures and Minor HeatRisk across the area today. Highs are expected to be in the upper 80s to low 90s across the Valley, with mountain/foothill highs in the upper 70s to 60s. North winds will be breezy in the northern/central Sacramento Valley, with gusts 15 to 25 mph, increasing closer to 30 mph by this evening. Further south, the Delta Breeze will bring westerly winds into the southern Sacramento Valley and northwest winds into the northern San Joaquin Valley this afternoon, before winds shift to the north overnight. Relative humidities will begin to trend lower today into the weekend as north to northwest winds increase with daytime RH values in the low teens to mid 20s in the Valley. ...Saturday through Monday... Ensemble guidance depicts a trough digging into the Great Basin this weekend, which will increase north to northwest winds through the Valley through Monday. Winds will begin to pick up Friday night in the northern/central Sacramento Valley before strengthening Saturday night through Sunday. Daytime relative humidities are expected to fall into the single digits to low teens during this time period leading to critical fire weather conditions. As a result, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for the Valley & Delta from 5 AM Saturday until 8 PM Monday. Sustained wind gusts are forecast between 20 to 30 mph with gusts 35 to 45 mph. Gusts may approach 50 mph through the Delta and far western Sacramento Valley. Winds will begin to trend weaker on Monday, however daytime relative humidities are still expected in the single digits. Overnight maximum humidities will be slow to recover Sunday night into Monday, with values in the 30s to 50s. Over the mountains and through gaps and canyons, north to east winds will gust 35 to 50 mph Sunday and Monday as well. Probability of Valley Wind Gusts > 40 mph: - Saturday`s Chances: 20-50% - Sunday`s Chances: 65-95% - Monday`s Chances: 10-35% ...Tuesday-Thursday... Heights begin to rise as the trough exits the Great Basin which will lead to gradually warming temperatures through midweek. Minor HeatRisk will continue to be widespread, with Valley high temperatures pushing into the mid to upper 90s. Daytime minimum RHs will remain in the low teens to low 20s below 1000 ft (potentially into the single digits), additionally daytime values in the mountains and foothills will be in the 20 to 30s as well. The continued low RHs combined with the warmer temperatures may bring elevated fire weather conditions to the Valley next week. Please continue to practice fire safety and monitor your latest forecast to stay up to date at weather.gov/sacramento && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. North- northwest 8 to 15 kts and gusts 20-25 kts through Saturday 18z with increasing winds over the northern & central Sacramento Valley after 00z Saturday with gusts 20-35 kts. West winds over the Sierra until 03z Friday, weakening and turning to the east overnight. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 5 AM Saturday to 8 PM PDT Monday for Butte County Below 1000 ft-C. San Joaquin County including Stockton-C. Solano County including Fairfield-C. Stanislaus County including Modesto-C. Yolo/NE Solano including Woodland-Central Colusa County Incl. I-5-Central Glenn Co & Interstate 5-Eastern Colusa County-Eastern Glenn County-N. Sac Valley in Tehama County-NE San Joaquin Valley Below 1000 ft-SW Solano County including Vallejo-Sac Metro/W. El Dorado/Amador County-Sacramento County Delta-San Joaquin County Delta-Shasta Metro-Sutter/Yuba counties below 1000 ft-Tracy Triangle Below 1000 ft-W. Stanislaus County Above 1000 ft & I-5-W. Yolo County including Capay/I-505. && $$

881 FXUS65 KMSO 152035 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 235 PM MDT Fri May 15 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Unsettled, cool, and showery conditions persist into the weekend. - Mountain snow this weekend will create difficult conditions for backcountry recreation, especially along the Continental Divide. - Widespread frost and freezing temperatures are highly likely Sunday through Tuesday mornings. Showery conditions have developed this afternoon under modest instability and moisture ahead of an approaching trough. Showers will mainly favor the higher terrain across northwest Montana. Snow levels will continue to hover around 5,000-6,000 feet, so light snow accumulations will remain confined to the higher terrain. A more organized low pressure system will begin to drop into western Montana and north central Idaho this weekend, bringing increased chances for precipitation area wide. The system has anomalously cold air associated with it, and will drop snow levels as low as 4000 feet by Sunday morning. Accumulating snow is anticipated for the higher elevations, bringing difficult conditions for backcountry recreation due to slushy snow accumulations on unpaved roadways. Cold, wet and breezy conditions will increase the hypothermia risk for any recreationalists. The precipitation looks to intensify along the Continental Divide on Sunday as northeasterly flow enhances lift along the Continental Divide. Accumulating slushy snow even into the higher elevation valleys in southwest Montana (Butte) is possible. Winter weather advisories have been issued for the higher terrain and may need to be expanded westwards on future shifts. Unseasonably cold temperatures will be in place Sunday through early next week, bringing the threat for a frost/freeze across many valleys of western Montana and north central Idaho. Those with sensitive vegetation or early season plantings may want to take protective measures, especially on Monday morning when frost has the potential to be most widespread due to decreased cloud cover. A general warming trend is anticipated next week, though generally returning to normal for this time of year. A period of brief drying is possible but may not be long lasting. && .AVIATION... West winds of about 10 to 20 knots will be widespread this afternoon ahead of a trough of low pressure approaching from the west. Scattered showers at KMSO and KGPI may bring brief, localized reductions in visibility into this evening. More widespread showers will arrive overnight tonight or early Saturday morning, favoring KGPI, KMSO, and KHRF. Expect widespread lowered ceilings down to about 2500 feet by Saturday morning, as well as continued precipitation through about midday transitioning to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Precipitation will obscure terrain throughout the Northern Rockies airspace. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight Saturday night to midnight MDT Sunday night for Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains... Butte/Blackfoot Region...Potomac/Seeley Lake Region...West Glacier Region. ID...None. && $$

124 FXUS65 KBOI 152032 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 232 PM MDT Fri May 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool and breezy this weekend, temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below normal. - Mountain rain and snow showers Saturday night and Sunday with light snow accumulations at higher elevations. - Patchy frost possible Sunday and Monday morning mainly east of Mountain Home. && .SHORT TERM /Through Sunday Night/... A shortwave trough moving into the Pac NW this afternoon, will push a dry cold front across the region overnight. The frontal passage will be marked with an uptick in wind speed/gusts especially across open terrain of SE Oregon and the Snake Plain. Gusts will range 20-35 mph with the frontal passage and stay elevated behind the front on Saturday. Showers will develop across the mountains in Baker County and w-central Idaho on Saturday as the upper low center tracks into northern ID. The cold air aloft will support a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms in the mtns as well. Snow levels drop to between 4500-5500 feet, but any notable accumulation (up to 2") would be above 6500 feet in the Wallowas, and north of McCall/Yellow Pine. Lower and drier locations could see blowing dust Saturday and Sunday, as gusts reach 30 to 45 mph, mostly during the afternoons. A tailing shortwave trough will drop through central Oregon Saturday night and into the northern Great Basin on Sunday. This system will bring a 20-40% chance of light showers to SE Oregon and the SW Idaho highlands south of the Snake Plain. It will also reinforce the cooler air mass while keeping winds elevated. Temperatures will remain 10-15 degrees below normal through the weekend. A frost/freeze threat will be present Saturday night from the Mountain Home area to Twin/Jerome. Winds will be a foil in allowing for temperatures to reach freezing and the formation of frost. The coldest areas have forecast lows in the 33-37 degree range. && .LONG TERM /Monday through Friday/... As the trough moves east and high pressure builds in over the west coast, a gradual warming trend begins. Before the trend begins, however, Monday morning will be the coldest in the forecast, with lows below 32 degrees above 4000 ft, and between 36-32 degrees above 3000 ft. This will put some of our growing zones, including the Magic Valley and upper Snake Plain, into freeze and frost territory. Temperatures overall rise from 5-10 degrees below normal Monday, to near normal by Wednesday, and 5-10 degrees above normal by Friday. Dry conditions prevail overall as afternoon minimum relative humidities reach 10-30%. Modest breezes each afternoon, especially in traditionally windy areas, with wind gusts up to 20 mph each day. There is a chance, though low 5-10% of showers and thunderstorms next Friday afternoon. Models carry a weak trough through North Idaho that may impact our area. && .AVIATION /18Z Friday through Saturday/... Issued 1149 AM MDT FRI MAY 15 2026 VFR and mostly clear today. Tonight and tomorrow morning, a cold frontal passage brings gusty winds and rain/snow showers to KBKE/KMYL. Snow levels 5-6 kft MSL. Surface winds: W-NW 5-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in open areas. The front brings 10-20 kt winds with gusts up to 30 kt tonight. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W 15-25 kt. KBOI...VFR. Cold frontal passage just after midnight brings gusty NW winds and overcast skies. Surface winds: NW 8 to 12 kts with gusts to 20 kt this afternoon. Light and variable this evening before gusty NW winds arrive with the front. Weekend Outlook: The cold front brings scattered rain/snow showers Sat/Sun, and continued gusty W-NW winds. Snow levels drop to 3.5-5 kft MSL Saturday night. Surface winds: W-NW 10-20 kt Sat, with gusts 25-35 kt. Stronger winds Sunday at NW 15-25 kt with gusts 30-40 kt over most areas. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...DG LONG TERM....JM AVIATION.....JM

266 FXUS65 KLKN 151953 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1253 PM PDT Fri May 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Quiet weather conditions for Friday and Saturday * Temperatures continue a slow cool down that will last through the weekend * Storm system moves through NE Nevada Sunday into Monday, bringing gusty winds, and chances for valley rain and mountain snow showers. * Overnight lows are expected to drop to below freezing beginning tonight and continuing into early next week && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Thursday) Zonal flow will bring quiet weather conditions with cooling temperatures through Saturday for the Silver state. High temperatures will start in the mid 70s to mid 80s Friday afternoon, falling to the mid 60s to mid 70s for Saturday afternoon. Strong late season upper level trough will dig south from Canada through MT/ID Saturday. By Sunday this trough will push into northern NV and exit central NV Monday morning. This system looks to bring stronger winds Sunday morning lasting into Monday morning as west winds shift out of the N with speeds of 20 to 35 MPH with gusts up to 55 MPH possible. Much cooler temperatures Sunday and Monday afternoon with highs in the mid 40s to low 60s possible. The main question with this system will be for precipitation chances. Confidence is low however as models continue to be split with how much moisture will be in the atmosphere over the weekend with some models indicating precipitable water values below 0.3 inches. Given the track of the trough, much of the precipitation is expected to fall over eastern portions of Nevada in Elko and White Pine Counties. Accumulation amounts expected to be light in the valleys, but still see upwards of 50-70% of up to 0.02 inches of rain, while higher elevations and mountains above 6000 feet will start seeing snow as snow levels drop before the precipitation arrives. Overnight, rain will transition to snow with snow levels dropping around 4000 feet. Snow accumulations in the valleys not expected to be much with values ranging from a trace to 0.1 inches, while passes and summits along eastern I-80 and north of the interstate, up to 1 inch of snow. Jarbidge Wilderness Area, Ruby Mountains, and mountain ranges in White Pine County could see up to 1-3 inches of fresh snow. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence for cooling temperatures and dry conditions through Saturday. There is high confidence for gusty to strong winds across central NV and the higher elevation of northern Nevada Sunday. There is moderate confidence in the possibility of isolated to scattered showers for eastern Nevada Sunday morning through Monday morning. There is moderate confidence in the possibility of accumulating snowfall for mountain and pass elevations above 6000 feet Sunday through Monday morning. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions remain in place through Saturday afternoon under mostly sunny and clear skies with a few high level clouds overhead at times. Winds will again be generally light to breezy through Saturday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Quiet weather conditions this afternoon with some breezy winds of gusts up to 15-20 mph. Cooling temperature trend through the weekend as an upper trough to the north extends south and clips Nevada. Chances for isolated rain/mountain snow return centered over the eastern zones over the weekend. Strong gusty winds that will shift from the north by Sunday with speeds up to 20-35 mph, gusts as high as 55 mph across all fire zones. No fire weather concerns as RH levels are expected to be above critical thresholds. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Sunday NVZ030-031-035-037-040-041. && $$ DISCUSSION...98 AVIATION...98 FIRE WEATHER...