Gusty winds and low relative humidity will bring critical fire weather to the central and southern High Plains Wednesday. Two Pacific storms will continue impacting the mountains of the western U.S. into Thursday with gusty winds and heavy snow. Heavy snow and gusty winds will continue to impact the northern Plains into the central Great Lakes Wednesday. Read More >
Seattle, WA
Center Weather Service Unit
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848 FXUS66 KSEW 180353 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 753 PM PST Tue Feb 17 2026 .SYNOPSIS... A broad low pressure system over the NE Pacific will move southeastward through Thursday, keeping scattered rain and overnight snow showers in the forecast through then. Cooler temperatures follow Thursday and Friday with Fraser River outflow. A warmer pattern returns Friday into early next week, accompanied by a more significant system bringing gusty winds, as well as additional rain and mountain snow. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Scattered showers persist, mainly moving north through King County and the adjacent Cascade foothills. Precipitation is largely rain, but some snowflakes could mix in before things wind down a bit overnight. No other major changes have been made to the forecast so the previous one can be found below, with an update to the aviation sections. These ongoing showers are being supported by a vertically- stacked low pressure system currently centered over the offshore waters off Washington. This low/trough will move to the southeast tonight into Wednesday, which will allow for an increase in shower coverage once again late tonight and through much of the day Wednesday. Temperatures will be cold enough to support some snow showers across most of the area through around 9/10 AM Wednesday, in particular across the Olympic Peninsula. Specific amounts and locations are difficult to define due to the showery nature of the precipitation, but most all locations should receive less than one inch of accumulating snowfall based on the amount of QPF in the forecast and the fact that temperatures will allow for melting Wednesday afternoon. As the system continues to depart to the southeast, precipitation will begin to cease across much of the area by Wednesday evening. Thursday looks to remain mostly dry across the area, with best chances for continued light precipitation across the south, mainly south of Olympia. Low temperatures Wednesday morning will be similar to today--in the low 30s to upper 20s, mainly across the Olympic Peninsula and away from the Seattle metro. Fraser River outflow winds will begin to increase tonight, but limited to western Whatcom County, where wind chills will begin to drop to around 20 degrees. High temperatures across the area will remain similar through Wednesday and Thursday, in the low 40s, except across the Northwest Interior into the Strait of Juan de Fuca where Fraser outflow will help keep highs down into the mid to upper 30s. Low temperatures will be cooler area-wide Thursday morning, with most areas in the mid to upper 20s. Lower 20s are possible in western Whatcom County with continued windy conditions pushing wind chills into the teens. Fraser outflow winds will begin to ease Thursday evening. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Friday will mark the start of a warming trend as the cold trough gets pushed out by a weak upper level ridge that will begin to build over the Intermountain West over the weekend. Additionally, a large upper trough will dig over the NE Pacific out of the Gulf of Alaska, which will have several shortwaves rotating through it to the northeast. This trough looks to develop several stronger, but fast- moving, low pressure systems just offshore this weekend and into early next week. These systems will push snow levels up to around 2000-3000 ft. While QPF and snow amounts don`t look to be noteworthy at this point, these will be windier systems with more widespread breezy to gusty conditions. A few inches of snow will be possible at the passes will be possible each day. Temperatures will warm with highs going up into the mid to upper 40s Friday and Saturday, reaching the low 50s Sunday and onward. Lows return to the mid to upper 30s. In other words, right around climatology for this time of year. 62 && .AVIATION... Southwest flow aloft tonight will maintain scattered showers across the area, though coverage is limited. Expect predominantly VFR ceilings to continue tonight though additional shower activity will rotate through the region overnight and looks to support another round of lowering ceilings and mixed MVFR/IFR conditions in heavier showers. With temperatures cooling overnight, these showers could be mixed or even entirely snow. While snow accumulations at the terminals remain unlikely, a heavy shower could bring a quick accumulation down to the surface. Shower activity will continue through the day Wednesday, though expect a return to primarily VFR ceilings by the afternoon hours. Winds will remain generally light and variable for most terminals, through will be offshore winds at KBLI. KSEA...Showers moving into the terminal tonight have brought rain and conditions back down to MVFR this evening. Generally expect ceilings to hover between MVFR and VFR tonight, before more prolonged MVFR conditions take hold of the terminal by early Wednesday. Temperatures cooling tonight will allow some potential for showers to become snow if they get heavy enough generally between 10z-15z. Little to no snow accumulation is expected at this time, though should showers become heavy enough, brief accumulations may occur. Winds will remain generally light and out of the south tonight into Wednesday. 14 && .MARINE... Low pressure will remain offshore over the next few days. As this pushes inland, winds will shift direction but speeds will remain well below advisory thresholds. Latest observations show seas hovering between 10-15 ft over the coastal waters tonight and between 9-11 ft across the western entrance of the Strait- where Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through early Wednesday morning, when seas are expected to gradually subside again. Fraser outflow will increase on Thursday morning across the northern inland waters, where some occasional wind gusts to 20-25 kt are possible. Otherwise, the attention turns to the next frontal system late in the week with increasing winds over the waters and the return of seas into the 15-17 ft range by late in the weekend. 14 && .HYDROLOGY... No river flooding is expected in the next seven days. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM PST Wednesday for Lowlands of Western Whatcom County. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for Grays Harbor Bar. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PST Wednesday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. && $$ 516 FXUS66 KPQR 172231 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 231 PM PST Tue Feb 17 2026 .SYNOPSIS...A deep, upper level trough over the northeast Pacific will continue to maintain cooler temperatures and scattered to widespread rain/snow showers across the forecast area through at least the latter part of the week. Colder air looks to maintain daytime temperatures around 5 to 10 degrees F cooler than normal, while also lowering snow levels towards 500-1000 ft each night/morning. Given the showery nature of the precipitation, there is a 40-60% chance for snow flurries or "conversational snow" to be observed down to the valley floor through at least late Thursday morning. There is the potential (45-60% chance) for 1 to 2 inches, or more of snowfall occurring below 500-1000 ft SOMEWHERE in NW Oregon/SW Washington, Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. Shower activity is expected to wane at the end of the week as high pressure returns briefly to the region. As high pressure builds, snow levels are expected to climb back towards over 3000 ft by Sunday as a warmer frontal system develops offshore. && .DISCUSSION...Now through Monday...Current radar imagery this afternoon shows scattered showers across the forecast area. These showers are expected to continue to ease through Wednesday morning as a low pressure near the south Washington coast weakens. Any showers through tonight will have the potential to also produce some small hail/graupel. Any hail/graupel would be associated with a shower and quickly melt/dissipate after the associated shower leaves the area. Most inland locations are likely to remain dry tonight though a few light rain/snow showers will be possible through early Wednesday morning. With clearing and relatively drier conditions tonight, expect overnight lows to fall below freezing, while a few rural locations could see temperatures fall into the mid to upper 20s. This could lead to icy roads and slick surfaces as any lingering moisture would likely freeze by early Wednesday morning. As Wednesday evening approaches we move into the more active weather for the week. While there is still a lot of uncertainty as to when and where snow will fall, we have moderate confidence (45-60% chance) that somewhere along the I-5 corridor will see at least 1 to 2 inches of snowfall. The GEFS, ECMWF and Canadian models and their ensembles are maintaining 850 mb temperatures of -5 to -7 degrees C. The fact that models continue to be consistent with the 850 mb temperatures has helped to bolster our overall confidence in the fact that snow will accumulate somewhere along the I-5 corridor. However, the timing and track of the low and associated frontal boundary still remains in flux. Now, there is some good news as the potential low tracks have narrowed slightly. Still, we are looking at three options when it comes to the higher probability tracks. Track One (20% chance), looks to move inland around Astoria, OR and push southeastward towards Kelso/Longview, WA and the Portland/Vancouver area. Track two (40% chance), looks to come in around Newport to Lincoln City, OR. The path for this solution, has a "swish and flick" look as the low looks to "swish" northeastward towards Portland/Vancouver before "flicking" eastward towards Mt. Hood, OR. Track three (20% chance), looks to come onshore around Florence, OR and head southeast towards Medford, OR. Now, for those of you counting up the probabilities of each track at home, track one is 20%, track 2 is 40% and track 3 at 20%. You might be asking about the remaining 20% chance and well, that can all be gathered into an option, that covers outlier runs of the GEFS, ECMWF and Canadian models. These outlier runs have the low coming onshore anywhere from the Olympic Peninsula all the way down to California. While these outlier runs are not likely on their own, there is still a chance, albeit a small one, that they could verify. Now, onto the other variable that has somewhat come into focus: Precipitation start time. Assuming a band of snow does develop (~50% chance), snow would most likely (50% chance) start between 7PM and 9PM on Wednesday. The earliest start time would be around 5PM Wednesday (10% chance) and the latest possible start time would be around 10PM Wednesday to 12AM Thursday (10% chance). It is not clear yet exactly when the snow would end, but it appears snow would most likely end by 12PM Thursday as the low pressure system shifts eastward towards the Cascade Crest. Note, this timing is subject to change with future updates. While, we have a lot of things that we don`t know, we are very confident (85-90% chance) that freezing rain and/or very gusty winds will NOT occur with this system, no matter the track the low takes. Also, no matter the track, snow accumulations for the Cascades and Coast Ranges look to be on track as hazardous travel conditions are expected to continue through the work week. We are expecting additional snow accumulations of 2 to 7 inches through Wednesday night and another 1 to 3 inches of snow Thursday morning through Thursday night for the Foothills of the Northern and Central Oregon Cascades, North and Central Coast Range Mountains of Oregon, Willapa Hills, and South Washington Cascade Foothills. As for the South Washington Cascades and the Northern and Central Cascades of Oregon, expect additional snow accumulations of 4 to 9 inches through Wednesday night and another 3 to 6 inches of snow Thursday morning through Thursday night. As we move into Thursday, temperatures are expected to warm back into the low to mid 40s, so if any snow does fall and accumulates, it would most likely melt. Temperatures Thursday night into Friday morning will likely cool again into the upper 20s to lower 30s. But shower activity is expected to wane, and any precipitation that does fall would be very light, resulting in little to no accumulation. Looking towards Friday and into the weekend, WPC 500 mb cluster analysis shows some agreement that a weak high pressure ridge will build over the region towards the latter part of the week and into the weekend. As this ridge builds over the area, 850 mb temps are expected to warm towards -3 to 0 degrees C by Saturday and towards 2 to 4 degrees C by Sunday. This will result in snow levels rising towards 2500-3500 ft by Saturday and to 3500-4500 ft on Sunday. Sunday and Monday, in addition to the warming pattern mentioned above, models and their ensembles also bring precipitation back into the forecast. Which means that rain is likely to return for areas below 5000 ft. However, there is still high uncertainty in regards to precipitation amounts and location of the heaviest rainfall. Models bring precipitation all along the western US coast Sunday into Monday, with the highest probabilities of enhanced rainfall currently pointed at portions of southern Oregon and California. /42 && .AVIATION...Post-frontal showers continue this afternoon which are producing gusty winds, moderate to heavy rain, and even small hail. Most guidance is suggesting a continuation of these showers over the next 24-hours. CIGs have generally lifted to VFR, though there continues to be periods of MVFR conditions with these showers. Overall, an overcast day with a mixed-bag of conditions. Overnight, temperatures will lower to or just below freezing which may promote areas of mixed rain/snow showers. While snow is not expected to accumulate significantly, most areas in northwest Oregon will see around a 30% chance of snow or a rain/snow mix. Wednesday will be a day of transition day as a stronger cold frontal system nears the region. While not expected to make landfall before 00Z Thu, will likely see showers ahead of the main frontal band. For a bit more flight planning and a heads up, this system incoming does have the potential to bring even more snow to the area with increasing probabilities for accumulations of 1 inch or more in the interior lowlands. Confidence is low, but future forecasts will be able to narrow in on more details. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions with moderate to heavy showers and breezy winds. With the heaviest showers, graupel and small hail have been reported. Main concern over the next 24 hours will be precipitation type, and the inconsistency in CIG heights. Cannot rule out a rain/snow mix overnight after 10Z Wednesday and improving after 21Z. -27 && .MARINE...Surface low pressure will linger near the south Washington coast today, maintaining westerly breezes across the waters. Wind speeds expected to be 20 kt or less though gusty winds will be possible with any passing shower. Seas in general have been in the 10-14 ft at 13 second range but have slowly begun to ease within the inner waters. This will be the trend through Wednesday afternoon as they begin to subside. The overall trend is the combined seas remaining below 10 ft through Friday. Looking into the future, a stronger system is on deck for the weekend with the potential for stronger southerly winds. Easily will see Small Craft Advisory level winds on Saturday, but there is around a 40-50% chance of gales in the outer waters of PZZ273. At that time, the background swell will be weaker and combined seas will be driven by the wind waves. -27 && .BEACH HAZARDS...There is an enhanced threat of sneaker waves at the coast through this evening. This is due to an incoming mid period westerly swell. Sneaker waves can run up significantly farther on a beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. These waves can suddenly knock people off of their feet and quickly pull them into the frigid ocean which may lead to serious injury or drowning. Caution should be used when in or near the water, especially those who will be razor clamming. Keep children and pets away from the surf zone. Keep off of jetties, rocks and logs near the surf zone. If you see someone swept into the sea, do not swim in after them. Instead , call 911 and keep an eye on them until help arrives. && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for ORZ106-107- 123>128. WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for WAZ203-208-211. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for PZZ210. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for PZZ251>253. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Wednesday for PZZ271>273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland 532 FXUS66 KMFR 180025 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 425 PM PST Tue Feb 17 2026 .UPDATE...Aviation Discussion updated. && .AVIATION...18/00Z TAFS...Numerous showers continue through this evening then decrease, becoming isolated to scattered and mostly focused along the coast tonight into Wednesday. Snow levels drop to around 500 feet tonight, maybe even locally lower and to near sea level at the coast. Any showers will be capable of locally lowering ceilings and visibilities (MVFR and IFR) as well as obscuring elevated terrain. Additionally, areas of MVFR/IFR in low stratus are possible tonight into Wednesday morning for inland valleys, especially the Umpqua. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 217 PM PST Tue Feb 17 2026/ SYNOPSIS...Cold low pressure continues to impact SW Oregon and northern California through midweek. After last night`s and today`s moderate to heavy snow event, we`ll be underneath the core of the cold low tonight and shower coverage should diminish. In fact, breaks in the clouds could lead to very cold temps overnight, with the potential for wet, slushy roadways to become icy into Wednesday morning. Showers will be most numerous along the coast and over the mountains. Another period of moderate to heavy snow is expected Wednesday night into Thursday before a break in the action Thursday night and Friday. Stormy weather returns this weekend as another Pacific low approaches with rain, higher elevation snow and possible strong winds. DISCUSSION...A deep, cold upper trough and low pressure system will move in overhead tonight into Wednesday. Energy in advance of this system brought 1-4 inches of snow last night into today down to around 1000 feet in the valleys west of the Cascades (we officially had 0.5 of an inch on our snow board here at the airport). 4-8 inches fell above ~1500 feet with the higher amounts around Talent/Ashland and even a report of 11.5 inches at Greenview in the Scott Valley! Most of the ski resorts had 6-12 inches, including Mt. Ashland. And, Crater Lake NP reported 12.5 inches at ~1030 am this morning. The highest total I could find was 16 inches at Big Red Mountain SNOTEL, which now has 33 inches on the ground. While this has caused plenty of headaches for motorists on the roadways, this has been a much needed change from more than a month with barely any snow at all. It has helped to build the snow pack in the mountains where it is desperately needed. Steadier snow is still falling from Modoc County into southern Lake County this afternoon, but this should shift eastward this evening as the core of the coldest air aloft moves in tonight into Wednesday morning. While this will result in the lowest snow levels of the season, lack of strong forcing will actually lead to diminishing coverage of showers for inland areas. In fact, some breaks in the cloud cover could develop and this would lead to flash freeze potential with wet/slushy roads turning icy overnight. So, if driving/walking/riding anywhere tonight, please use extra caution. Low temperatures area wide will be near or below freezing (including the coast where a freeze warning is in effect) with teens over the East Side and in portions of NorCal. In addition to the freeze warning along the coast, we have added a winter weather advisory there too since showers will likely be most numerous over there during the night and into Wednesday morning. Most accumulation in those areas will be reserved for elevations above 500 feet, but we can`t rule out some isolated locations at sea level that get a brief dusting with temperatures near freezing. More energy diving southward from western Canada will move through the area Wednesday night into Thursday and that`s why we`re maintaining the whole suite of Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories through at least Thursday morning. We are likely to see another round of moderate to heavy snow with similar snow levels to last night. Once again, the main timing for precip is during the night and into the wee hours of Thursday morning, so paved surfaces and roadways will be colder to support snow accumulation. Amounts of 1-4 inches are likely on the valleys floors west of the Cascades with up to 6 inches in southern portions of the Illinois Valley and also the lower Klamath Valley in western Siskiyou County. Mountain areas, including the Shasta region, higher elevations of western Siskiyou County, the Kalmiopsis Wilderness and the Cascades are all likely to see another 8-16 inches of snow. Advisory amounts are expected over the East Side with 2-6 inches (maybe 8 over Winter Rim and the Warners). One we get past Thursday, the upper trough gets a kick inland and coverage of precipitation will diminish overnight, though cold temps are expected again. Short wave upper ridging should provide mostly dry weather Friday. The break will be short-lived. Model guidance is near unanimous in showing stormy weather returning to the area over the weekend, but it`s likely to be milder than this recent stretch. Another deep, closed low will break southward from the Gulf of Alaska spinning up low pressure off the PacNW coast. Multiple waves will increase winds/rain chances along the coast Saturday with the bulk of the storminess moving through the area Sunday into Monday. Models are showing strong mid-level southerly flow of 55-60kt, so this means many areas inland will get breezy to windy, especially the Shasta Valley and also the East Side. It also means we`ll have some warm advection, and snow levels will be higher, generally starting around 3000 feet, and then rising to 4000-5000 feet. Some downsloping would occur across Oregon, but upslope flow would bring winter impacts back to NorCal. The Winter Storm Severity Index is showing a high probability (60-80%) of at least moderate winter impacts across the NorCal mountains. The Mt Shasta City region and I-5 is a little iffier though with snow levels hovering 3000-3500 feet initially, then rising. An unsettled weather pattern is likely to persist into mid next week. MARINE...Updated 1000 AM PST Tuesday, February 17, 2026...Westerly winds ease through the day today but high westerly swell will support steep seas in all area waters through at least Wednesday afternoon. The swell eases Wednesday night into Thursday, but another passing low brings another round of activity with periods of gusty north to northwest winds, rain and possible steep seas Thursday afternoon. Winds and seas briefly lower into Friday. Then, a strong storm will move southward over the eastern Pacific from the Gulf of Alaska. Current forecast for this system shows a high probability (>80% chance) of southerly gales and also the potential for storm force gusts (especially over the outer waters - beyond 10 NM from shore) Saturday into Sunday. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Thursday for ORZ023-024- 026. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for ORZ021>031. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM PST Wednesday for ORZ021-022. CA...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Thursday for CAZ080-082- 083. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for CAZ081-084- 085. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST Wednesday for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$ 894 FXUS66 KEKA 172211 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 211 PM PST Tue Feb 17 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Snow, small hail and rain showers continue across the area tonight and into early Wednesday. A short break in the weather is expected Wednesday as the showers become more scattered. Rain and low elevation snow are expected to return Wednesday evening and continue through Thursday morning. A break in the precip is expected Thursday afternoon through Friday before another strong storm system moves in for the weekend bringing rain, snow and strong wind. && KEY MESSAGES: * Through tonight, heavy wet snow will result in dangerous travel conditions, downed trees and possible power outages. Heavy wet snow will impact travel on highways 199, 299, 36, 101 and 3. * Small hail accumulation expected for lower elevations along the NW California Coast with heavy showers through tonight. * After a brief break in the rain and snow, additional periods of rain with low elevation snow are expected Wednesday night through Thursday morning. * Heavy rain with higher snow levels and strong gusty winds possible next weekend. Flooding is possible in Mendocino and Lake counties. .DISCUSSION...The cold upper level trough is continuing to bring showers to the area this afternoon. Many of these contain small hail and snow levels are around 1500 feet. Tonight some of the snow levels may drop down to sea level. A few flakes are even possible at the coast, although no accumulation is expected. Late tonight into early Wednesday snow levels may drop to 500 or 1000 feet, althought lighter snowfall amounts expected. Showers are expected to taper off Wednesday morning with a general break in the weather through much of the day. Late Wednesday afternoon or evening another impulse dropping down through the northwest flow will more rain and snow. Snow levels are expected to be around 1500 to 2000 feet, lowest in the north. There is the potential for some small hail along the coast, although it looks less widespread than Tuesday morning. Thursday afternoon showers are expected to diminish and snow levels may rise slightly. Thursday night and Friday mainly dry weather is expected. The airmass will be very cold, but how much this is realized at surface will depend on cloud cover. Low temperatures may end up warmer than expected if there are more low clouds around than expected. A cold weather advisory may be needed for this time period when it gets closer. Friday through early next week models a series strong weather systems moving through the area. The first weather system is expected Friday night into Saturday. With the cold airmass in place snow levels may start off around 1500 to 2000 feet. Most areas the snow levels are expected to rise as it goes through the day on Saturday and the heavier precip moves in. However, snow levels often rise slower than predicted by the models so this will need to be watched as it gets closer. As it goes through the weekend this event looks to switch more to a rain and flooding event, especially in Mendocino and Lake counties. The ensembles are showing higher IVT`s with a 70 to 80 % chance of exceeding 250 kg/m/s, however very little chance for over 500 kg/m/s. This is not particularly strong, but it looks like there will be a quick succession of impulses that may overwhelm the rivers and streams in Mendocino and Lake counties. The exact timing of the breaks between these will be a big factor in the level of impacts. There are also expected to be strong winds. Currently the strongest southerly winds are expected to be Saturday night. The mean NBM 24 hour max gust are showing around 40 to 50 mph at the lower elevations and the higher elevation wind gusts are showing over 70 mph. && .AVIATION...Rain showers crossing the area Tuesday morning have brought brief periods of moderate to heavy rain alongside accumulating small hail. Such conditions have generated brief IFR conditions alongside gusty wind. As of early afternoon, scattered skies between showers have allowed for VFR conditions along the coast. High resolution models generally suggest weaker showers through the afternoon and hence mostly VFR conditions. A resurgence of stronger showers and small hail, prompting longer periods of IFR conditions, will spread from north to south along the coast later tonight and into early Thursday morning. That said, any IFR conditions will be inconsistent at best with VFR conditions in between. Winds may be briefly gusty alongside showers, but otherwise be mostly gentle with little wind shear. More widespread and consistent VFR conditions are then most likely during the day Wednesday before another round of stormy weather Wednesday evening. /JHW && .MARINE...A large, steep, northwest swell has built into the waters, with buoy observations of 14 to 16 ft at 12 seconds. With residual westerly wind waves of 5 to 7 ft, combined seas are forecast to reach 15 to 18 ft through later this afternoon. The swell will start to slowly subside tonight through the day Wednesday. Meanwhile, winds shift northwesterly today and tonight and could be especially breezy in the outer waters with gusts of 20 to 30 kts. Nearshore, waters south of Cape Mendocino are likely to remain breezy though this afternoon with gusts of 15 to 25 kts. Winds turn southerly again Wednesday as another front approaches the area and could be especially breezy nearshore north of Cape Mendocino. Winds quickly turn northerly behind the front Wednesday night into Thursday with gale force gusts possible in the outer waters. Steep wind waves are possible with these winds and could propagate into the inner waters. Northerly winds ease late Thursday into Friday as an additional storm system approaches the area. Strong southerly winds, possibly with gale or storm force gusts, are possible by Saturday. JB && .COASTAL FLOODING...High astronomical tides resulted in minor coastal flooding at high tide this morning, with the tide reaching 8.81 ft above MLLW with a surge around 1.5 feet. Applying the same anomaly for high tide today results in a tide of 8.6 to 8.7 ft MLLW at 11:45 AM at the North Spit tide gauge. Should the tide exceed 8.8 ft MLLW, minor coastal flooding is possible around Humboldt Bay, including the Arcata Bottoms and in King Salmon. JB && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST Wednesday for CAZ101- 103. Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM PST Thursday for CAZ102- 105>108. Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST Wednesday for CAZ104- 110-111-114-115. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST Wednesday for PZZ450. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Thursday for PZZ455-470- 475. Gale Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday evening for PZZ470-475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png 773 FXUS66 KMTR 180034 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 434 PM PST Tue Feb 17 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 327 AM PST Tue Feb 17 2026 - High elevation snow continues through the week with the highest snow accumulations over the Central Coast - The combination of cold overnight lows and damp conditions will make it feel even colder impacting people without adequate shelter - Additional storms will bring windy conditions back to the region Thursday - Active weather continues with additional chances for rain into next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 157 PM PST Tue Feb 17 2026 (This evening through Wednesday) Another active weather day around the Bay Area and Central Coast thanks to a robust cold front passing through the region. Latest surface analysis puts the cold front squarely in SF Bay/S Bay region heading to the Central Coast. The most active weather is ahead and along the front with heavy rain, gusty winds, embedded thunderstorms, and gusty winds. As such, we`re seeing reports of minor flooding, small hail, and additional landslides/rocks/mud on roads. We had a few reports of minor wind damage with gusts up to 60 mph. Widespread showers and rain persist even behind the front. Simply put, if you have to travel this afternoon/evening for a commute be heads up as weather impacts will likely linger. We`ve also received lots of question about snow this afternoon. Today has been finicky to say the least with snow level fluctuations. Lower snow levels earlier in the day have drifted higher and cams even showed a switch over at times to rain or rain/snow mix. This will eat into snow totals for sure. Regardless, still expecting accumulating snow over the highest peaks and left current Winter Weather Adv as is. For the rest of tonight: The cold front will continue to march slowly S and E. Behind the front we`ll still hold onto scattered showers and high elevation snow showers. Winds will be strongest this evening then slowly ease overnight. The bigger impact for tonight will be the temperatures. The airmass is cold and any bit of clearing will allow for the cold airmass to be realized. Given the damp conditions the cold temperatures will feel even colder, especially those without adequate shelter. As such, expanded the cold weather advisory and extreme cold warnings for the Santa Clara Hills, Santa Cruz Mts, and Santa Clara Valley. Black ice could also be an issue in the cold spots that received rain today given temps flirting around freezing. For Wednesday: a cold start to the day. A broad upper trough remains over the region with embedded shortwaves and another upper low therefore lingering showers will remain. Given the colder air aloft cannot rule out thunder. SPC has most of the forecast area in a general mention of thunder. Any developed storm could produce small hail too. Snow levels will be lower tomorrow than today, but the amount of precip will be in question. Snow levels could be as low as 1500 feet over the N Bay and 2500 feet Central Coast. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 157 PM PST Tue Feb 17 2026 (Wednesday night through next Monday) Early Wednesday night there could be a lull in precip as one upper low exits and another system quickly approaches from the W and NW. One bigger question for Wednesday night will be how cold does it get? There will be some thinning of clouds, but they quickly fill back in. That will likely limit the amount of cool. Therefore, conf wasn`t high enough to cont the Cold Weather Adv or Extreme Cold Warnings. Thursday/Friday: Another active weather day with another round of rain (moderate to heavy at times), chance for thunder/hail, gusty winds, and high elevation snow. No major change from previous rainfall projections: 0.5-1.0" most areas and up to 2-2.5" coastal mts. Wind will not be strong enough for a wind advisory, but still gusts of 20-40 mph and locally to 50 mph seems plausible. As for snow, little bit of a roller coaster with the snow levels rising ahead of the low pressure Thursday. Still thinking accumulating snow over most high peaks in the region. May need to issue additional Winter Wx Adv. Precip tapers off heading into Friday with some clearing as well. Friday morning will likely be the coldest day of the bunch with another round of cold weather products likely. Interesting longwave pattern developing over the weekend as persistent upper trough remains over the region. In the trough a series of upper lows develop and then pivot around each other off the PacNW coast. The associated cold front with this system will bring additional rain back to the region. This will be a warmer system with much higher snow levels too. Last but not least. A potential influx of high PWAT air early next week. Still far out, but some AR guidance suggests a lower end AR. This could have bigger impacts given how much precip we`ve been piling up with this week`s systems. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 434 PM PST Tue Feb 17 2026 Widespread light rain is affecting the area, but will reduce into the evening and overnight. Expect mostly mid-level clouds with inconsistent MVFR CIGS across the area. Winds stay westerly into the evening but some areas look to turn more northerly overnight as winds reduce. Shower activity increases into Wednesday morning with more of a focus along the coast. Storm chances will build over the marine environment, with slight chances for storms moving inland through the first half of Wednesday. Rain chances reduce again into Wednesday afternoon, but build again that night. Vicinity of SFO...Shower activity is reducing, but rain chances continue with mostly mid-level clouds. Gusty southeast winds turn westerly into the evening and reduce slightly. Wins turn Northwest overnight as remain breezy. Rain chances increase into early Wednesday morning as winds turn westerly again. Expect rain to reduce for Wednesday afternoon, but will increase again that evening. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Showers last into the late night with breezy to gusty west winds. Rain chances reduce into the late night as winds reduce. Moderate westerly winds remain at MRY through the night, while SNS goes Southeasterly into the late night. Widespread rains return in the early morning, but reduce into Wednesday afternoon as winds turn west to northwest across the area. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 434 PM PST Tue Feb 17 2026 Scattered showers and slight chances for storms continue to move through the waters. Strong westerly winds continue across the waters with gale force winds in the southern waters lasting through the light. Winds slacken some late Wednesday into early Thursday but quickly become strong again with gale force gusts returning. Rough to very rough seas will prevail through the week. Thunderstorm chances linger into the mid week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM PST Wednesday for CAZ504-506-512-513-516. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST Wednesday for CAZ514-517- 518. Extreme Cold Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM PST Wednesday for CAZ514-517-518. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Wednesday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Wednesday for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 9 AM PST Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM....MM AVIATION...Murdock MARINE...Murdock Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea 609 FXUS66 KOTX 172352 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 352 PM PST Tue Feb 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Bands of snow tonight into Wednesday bringing winter travel conditions to areas of Eastern WA and North Idaho. Be prepared for a slow Wednesday morning commute. - Periodic hit and miss snow showers Thursday and Friday. - A break Saturday then additional preciptiation chances Sunday into next week. && .SYNOPSIS... An active weather pattern will continue through the work week. Light to locally heavy snow accumulations in areas of North Idaho and Eastern Washington by Wednesday. Snow showers will continue on and off Thursday into Friday. Temperatures moderate over the weekend with additional chances for mountain snow and mix of rain and snow in the lowlands next week. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight-Wednesday: Cold core upper-level trough continues to wobble inland promoting steepening lapse rates and increasing potential for convective showers. As of 2PM, there were showers across a majority of the Inland NW outside the southwestern Basin. Many of these showers were driven by afternoon heating with some assistance from weak embedded waves. This activity will continue to be monitored for potential impacts heading into the evening commute and addressed with short term messaging. Impacts so far have been minor courtesy of temperatures near 40F and swift south to north movement. As we head into tonight, impact levels will be on the rise with the arrival of a strong, more organized wave coming out southern Oregon. Bands of moderate to locally heavy snow will setup with this feature delivering little to no impacts for some and moderate impacts to others. This is largely due to the small scale banding that will develop delivering 4+ inches of snow in one area and less than an inch in others. These systems moving through the cool troughs are very challenging to predict and often waver from run to run. It`s no surprise that this is what we are seeing once again with some runs of the HRRR showing amounts as high as 9 inches in spots. We are also seeing the location of these highest amounts waver from as far north as Spokane and surrounding areas to as far south as Pullman. The general consensus is for southeastern WA and the lower Idaho Panhandle generally along and south of I-90 to be the locations of greatest concern. This is supported by the highest probabilities for >2" of snow with HREF showing 40-70%, very respectable but also not to lose focus of the 10-30% chances that it does fall outside these areas as far north as Deer Park, Wellpinit, or west near Ritzville. As this system is tracking inland overnight and pulling in richer theta-e air along the surface trough from the south through the Palouse, colder, modified arctic air is being pulled in from the north through the Okanogan Valley and Purcell Trench of north Idaho. This is creating a strengthening pressure gradient and will result in gusty north winds for Oroville, Omak, and spilling into the Grand Coulee area. Northeast winds will also pick up for locations like Bonners Ferry and Sandpoint. This will assist with maintaining spinning of a surface low through the Palouse-Spokane-Cd`A which could stall for several hours before weakening. This low level convergence coupled with the steepening lapse rates (especially through the dendritic or ice growth layer), and spiraling cyclonic nature of the precipitation bands is what makes this challenging. If the northeast winds are slower to materialize, I believe that is where we start to realize some of the 10-30% chances for 2+ inches north of Spokane-Cd`A. All in all, most of E WA and N ID should be prepared for a slow commute on Wednesday and potential changes to the forecast as head into the overnight hours. Confidence is moderate that there will be little to no impacts for Central WA outside spotty light snow showers. The cold trough will be over the region Thursday and begin to migrate east on Friday. Thursday will bring a continuation of hit or miss snow showers, some which could produce moderate snow amounts over very small areas. Any showers could have impacts to travel with rapidly changing road conditions. Saturday-Tuesday: Ensembles are in good agreement of another deep low taking residence off the coast. This will allow a shortwave ridge axis to amplify along the spine of the Rockies. Temperatures will moderate some and energy ejecting from the low will continue to bring periods of mountain snow and mix or rain/snow to the lowlands. At this time, Saturday looks to carry the highest probabilities for dry conditions then look for increasing chances for precipitation Sunday into early next week. Those traveling over the passes should be prepared for winter travel conditions. Any snow for the lowlands will likely be confined to the Cascade valleys and near the Canadian border. There is a 70% for the trough to eject inland on or around Tuesday which will usher the next cold front through. We will need to keep a close eye on Monday and Tuesday as this is occurring for windy conditions. /sb && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: A cold trough is moving into the region ushering steepening lapse rates and increased risk for convective snow showers. Widely scattered snow showers will impact GEG-SFF-COE- SZT-63S (Colville) through 02-03z. MVFR stratus has been stubborn to break apart in the Cascades and around EAT. Following a break this evening, a more organized wave arrives after 05z impacting SE WA and Idaho Panhandle through 18z and likely to remain draped across far N Idaho and NE WA into 00z. Heavier bands will be on smaller scales leading to a wide range in snow accumulations over short distances. Potential amounts vary from a few tenths to 4 inches for PUW, GEG, COE and 0 to 2 inches for SFF and LWS. There is a 10% chance for more than 4 inches around GEG and PUW. MVFR to IFR conditions will accompany the snow, especially at PUW due to favorable wind patterns. Gusty north winds will develop at OMK and reach MWH at lighter intensities. NE winds will increase for SZT-COE. As this system weakens THU afternoon, there is a renewed threat for additional hit or miss convective snow showers region-wide. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CAMS are indicating the stratus breaking around EAT but this comes with low confidence given the time of day. By in large, the greatest uncertainty comes with the precise placement and intensity of the organized bands of snow overnight and how much snow falls as LWS, PUW, GEG, SFF, and COE. Moderate to high confidence for this feature to develop and track through SE WA and N Idaho but a few miles could be the difference of 1 inch vs 4+ inches. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 26 34 23 35 20 33 / 40 60 40 20 20 20 Coeur d`Alene 25 33 21 35 20 34 / 40 80 50 30 30 50 Pullman 27 32 22 34 23 33 / 70 80 30 40 40 50 Lewiston 31 40 26 39 27 39 / 60 70 20 20 20 30 Colville 22 34 19 34 14 32 / 20 40 40 20 10 20 Sandpoint 23 29 20 31 19 31 / 40 70 60 40 40 50 Kellogg 25 32 20 33 21 31 / 60 90 60 50 50 70 Moses Lake 26 40 24 38 21 37 / 10 10 10 20 0 10 Wenatchee 26 39 26 35 21 34 / 10 20 30 30 0 10 Omak 24 35 20 33 18 34 / 10 10 20 10 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Wednesday for Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Spokane Area-Washington Palouse. Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM PST Wednesday for Northeast Blue Mountains. ID...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Wednesday for Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 PM PST Wednesday for Central Panhandle Mountains. && $$ 652 FXUS66 KPDT 172318 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 318 PM PST Tue Feb 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Significant mountain snow and lowland potential overnight *Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories Active* - Additional mountain and lowland snow Thursday - Warmer weekend temperatures with mountain snow persisting && .DISCUSSION... Current radar and visible satellite imagery shows light to moderate returns along the Cascade and Northern Blue Mountains under partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies. This is in response to an upper level low pressure system dropping along the Washington/Oregon coasts as an associated cold front slowly moves across the region. A surface low pressure has developed along the frontal boundary over Central Oregon, which is expected to slowly meander along the Northern Blue Mountains through Wednesday morning. Periods of heavy snow will be possible as terrain influences the synoptic forcings associated with the present surface low to allow for substantial snow amounts of up to 15 inches across the Northern Blue Mountains through Wednesday afternoon. Snowfall is expected to peak before 7 AM, but will linger into the afternoon. Thus, the Winter Weather Advisory has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning across the Northern Blue Mountains until 3 PM as 10-15 inches of snowfall is possible. These amounts align more with the 75th percentile (1 in 4 chances) than the 50th (1 in 2 chances), but of note is that the overall mean is significantly higher than the 50th. This relates to many ensemble members hinting at much higher snow totals as evident in the 90th percentile (1 in 10 chances) of receiving 25-30 inches over the Northern Blue Mountains. These parameters were taken more into account as a number of snow squalls occurred last night across Central Oregon, including the Bend/Redmond area and John Day and training snowfall has already set up across the Northern Blue Mountains. Due to the nature and progression of the surface low pressure along the terrain, and the presence of cold air aloft mixing lower to the surface as evident with the earlier snowfall across portions of the Northern Blue Mountain foothills, Winter Weather Advisories have been issued across the Southern Blue Mountains, Wallowa County, Grande Ronde Valley, John Day Basin, and the Northern Blue Mountain foothills through 3 PM Wednesday. 3 to 6 inches of snowfall is expected across the Grande Ronde Valley, Wallowa County, and the Southern Blue Mountains, with 2 to 4 inches of snow along the Northern Blue Mountain foothills and the John Day Basin. Much like the Northern Blue Mountains, overall probabilities are low but the mean and 75th percentiles advertise advisory snow amounts. The Winter Weather Advisory across the east slopes of the Oregon Cascades continues to stay active until 11 PM tonight as an additional 2 to 5 inches will be possible. Confidence is high in these snow amounts as the NBM suggests a 70-80% chance of 2 inches or more snowfall and a 55-65% chance of 4 inches or more snowfall across Santiam Pass this evening. The upper level low currently located along the coast will open into a trough and move through the Pacific Northwest into Wednesday morning ahead of a reinforcing trough that will drop along the Washington/Oregon coasts on Thursday. This will again bring northwest flow aloft to the region and another round of mountain snowfall with a chance for light accumulations across lower elevations of Central Oregon and the Blue Mountain foothills. The timing will coincide with the overnight period into Thursday morning, with mountain snow and lower elevations precipitation tapering off through the evening. Currently, the best chance (40-60%) for reaching Winter Weather Advisory snow amounts resides along the east slopes of the Oregon Cascades. Snow amounts expected across Santiam Pass Wednesday evening through Thursday are between 8 and 9 inches - which would be a higher-end Winter Weather Advisory. However, confidence is still lacking as the overall spread (25th vs. 75th percentiles) is 4 inches, which could lead to sub-advisory snow amounts. In addition, LREF ensemble clusters suggest 3-4 inches of snowfall, which align more with a sub-or low-end advisory levels. Further analysis will be necessary to determine if an additional winter weather product will be needed later in the week across the east slopes of the Oregon Cascades. An upper level ridge begins to build across the Pacific Northwest Friday in the wake of the departing trough, effectively tapping into additional moisture and warmer temperatures Friday through the weekend. In response to the transient ridge building, only light mountain snow is likely Friday morning. Another upper level low pressure drops along the British Columbia coast over the weekend and slowly dissipates through the early part of the week. This will bring a return to mountain snow Saturday through Monday. 75 && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... A low pressure system impacting the area today will bring scattered snow showers through tonight. Sites impacted by snow showers will see reduction in vsby and CIGs to at least MVFR conditions, with moderate confidence (60-70%) of IFR or lower conditions developing with the snow. A surface low feature is expected to bring rain, then snow shower impacts to site PDT/ALW later this evening through tonight. A prob30 chance of snow showers have also been included at site PSC for the overnight period, though confidence is overall low (20-30%) in snow showers developing at this site. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through remainder of the period. Winds will be light, less than 12kts, through most of the period. Winds will increase to 12-15kts tomorrow afternoon at sites PDT/RDM/BDN. Lawhorn/82 && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 28 41 24 38 / 60 30 20 40 ALW 30 39 26 38 / 70 50 20 40 PSC 30 47 27 43 / 30 20 20 20 YKM 25 44 25 40 / 10 20 30 20 HRI 30 46 27 42 / 40 20 20 30 ELN 24 38 23 34 / 10 20 30 30 RDM 19 37 22 35 / 20 20 30 30 LGD 24 37 19 36 / 80 60 30 60 GCD 22 34 21 36 / 60 40 40 70 DLS 30 44 31 42 / 20 40 50 50 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM PST Wednesday for WAZ029. Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM PST Wednesday for WAZ030. OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM PST Wednesday for ORZ049- 050-503-505-507. Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM PST Wednesday for ORZ502. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for ORZ509. && $$ DISCUSSION...75 AVIATION...82 095 FXUS65 KREV 172150 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 150 PM PST Tue Feb 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * The most impactful part of the winter storm is ongoing and will persist through tonight. Travel is highly discouraged in the Sierra as periods of whiteout conditions are likely. * For western Nevada, snow is ongoing and will pile on several inches of snowfall creating hazardous travel for the evening commute. * Cold conditions and scattered snow showers will keep roads slick through the Wednesday morning commute, with the next round of snow on the way for Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... We`re digging into the main course of the storm right now with multiple reports of snow rates from 1"/hour across western Nevada, even in Reno, and 3-4"/hour observed near Donner Pass in the Sierra. Also, there is a risk for thunderstorms with very heavy snow and lightning from 12pm-6pm. Be aware of rapidly changing conditions, especially if you are in the backcountry during this storm. Impacts are a plenty across the Sierra and western Nevada from last night into today with plentiful road closures and incidents, chain restrictions, school/city/county closures and we`ve even seen reports of businesses closing up early to avoid the ever-worsening road conditions as of 11AM today. This snow will continue through the evening across the region with no signs of a break until well after midnight. Plan on hazardous road conditions, poor visibility due to falling and blowing snow, and even periods of white out conditions in locally heavy snow through late tonight. By Wednesday, plan on variable road conditions for the morning commute. While snow will be over for many locations, the road conditions won`t be any better than we leave them tonight. Western NV will likely have a decent break in the action, but the Sierra will still receive off/on showers during the day. Our next storm is already lining up to barrel through the region for early Thursday morning. Plan on additional snow accumulations in the Sierra with up to an additional foot possible, while another 3-8" of snow could fall in the Tahoe Basin, western Mono County and northeast CA. Western NV snow amounts will be less than with this ongoing storm, but still shovel-able with a 10-20% chance of 2+ inches for far western NV locations. For Friday and Saturday, it looks like a good day to assess any storm damage and clear areas out. We are looking at some early strong signals for another storm for early next week, with arrival as early as Sunday night. Plan on another round of gusty winds, Sierra snow, and possibly some valley rain as this is a wetter, more mild system for now. -Edan && . AVIATION... * Sierra terminals (KTVL, KTRK, KMMH): Major aviation impacts including airport closures continue through late tonight with prolonged periods of IFR/LIFR conditions, snow covered runways and gusty-strong winds producing blowing snow, widespread turbulence and shear. * Western NV terminals (KRNO, KCXP, KMEV): Widespread aviation impacts are expected until 04-06Z this evening with nearly continuous snow producing periods of IFR or LIFR conditions, and surface gusts near 35 kt. 40-60% chance for runway accumulations at least 4" at the main terminals. Conditions improve temporarily for Wednesday, but another quick storm may bring another round of snow and wind impacts on Thursday. Snow Probabilities for Thursday KMMH/KTVL/KTRK 35% chance of 4", while KRNO/CXP/KMEV 10-15% chance of 2". -Edan && .AVALANCHE... Our major, multi-day winter storm continues with impacts to all avalanche center terrain through Wednesday. * Snowfall totals and rates: Through early Wednesday morning, 1-3 feet of snow along the crest, with locally up to 4 feet along the highest peaks. Heaviest snowfall rates will be through the evening, with rates of 3-4"/hr across most avalanche center terrain (localized rates of 3+"/hr in southern Mono county). This is due to the higher SLRs. * SLRs and SWE: Expect SLRs of 14-16:1 due to colder air moving into the area. SWE of 1-3" through early Wednesday morning, with up to 3.5" along the highest peaks, mainly in southern Mono county. * Ridgetop gusts: Southwest winds of 70-90 mph through much of today with localized gusts exceeding 100+ mph through Wednesday morning. * Next storm pushes in Thursday with a quick additional bump of 0.50- 1.00 SWE and 8-16 inches of snow. Southwest wind gusts 60-80 mph with gusts 90+ mph through early Friday morning. -Giralte/Edan && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday NVZ001-004-005. Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM PST Wednesday NVZ002. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Thursday NVZ002. Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Wednesday NVZ003. CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday CAZ070. Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM PST Wednesday CAZ071>073. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Thursday CAZ071>073. && $$ 633 FXUS66 KSTO 171924 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1124 AM PST Tue Feb 17 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Brunt of cold storm system impacts the area through today with additional rounds of lighter rain and snow on Wednesday into Thursday. - Major travel impacts in the mountains and foothills continue with light snowfall accumulations possible below 1000 feet in Shasta County on Wednesday morning. - Outside of lingering light mountain showers, brief break in the action expected later Thursday into Saturday. Another wet, but slightly warmer storm system expected for early next week. && .DISCUSSION... ...Today through Thursday... Strong, cold storm system associated with deep trough continues to impact the area today. Since Sunday, widespread rainfall of 1.5 to 3 inches has fallen over the lower elevations, with upwards of 2 to 3 feet of snow above 5000 feet. As of early this afternoon, snow levels have dropped to between 2000 to 2500 feet as colder air begins to filter in on backside of trough. Accumulating snow is impacting Sierra foothill communities. Dangerous travel conditions continue across long stretches of highways with whiteout conditions as southerly winds have increased throughout the day today. Heaviest snow and strongest winds are expected through tonight. We`ll also be monitoring the potential for isolated thunderstorms this afternoon as we`re starting to see some clearing behind the front across the northern Sacramento Valley. Sounding profile indicate decent 0-6km shear and instability so will be watching for the potential for a few strong storms with hail and rotation. As well as the above mentioned impacts, we`re continuing to monitor the potential for snow levels to drop even further tonight into Wednesday morning. Latest-hi res and ensemble guidance shows the potential for snow levels to drop to around 500 feet across Shasta County and around 1000 feet in the Sierra foothills. While the risk of accumulating snow down to locations like Redding and Auburn remain low, the risk is non-zero (~20% probability of a half inch or greater). Any additional low snow would continue to exacerbate travel impacts. Action becomes more scattered in nature for Wednesday into early Thursday with showers continuing in the mountains. Another shortwave drops down from the Pac NW into NorCal on Thursday with another round of widespread rain and mountain snow as well as gusty southerly winds on Thursday as another shortwave moves across NorCal. Rain and snow totals will be less than what we saw over the past few days. ...Friday - Weekend... Ensemble guidance in agreement that longwave trough ejects off to the east by Friday with a brief break in the action for most of the area through Saturday. Should see improving travel conditions throughout the day Friday. By Sunday, ensemble guidance shows another strong trough dropping south near the West Coast from the Gulf of Alaska and eventually swinging through the area sometime Tuesday into Wednesday. Exact details remain uncertain but a pretty good likelihood of widespread rainfall and mountain snow with another period of gusty southerly winds. This one looks a bit warmer so generally snow levels around 5000 feet or above. && .AVIATION... MVFR/IFR conditions expected in areas of -RA/RA and possible TSRA at TAF sites through 04z Wednesday followed by a brief break in precipitation and a return to generally VFR conditions overnight. Highest chances for TSRA expected between 23z today and 04z Wednesday. Additional MVFR in isolated -SHRA then possible through 18z Wednesday. Gusty south to west winds expected through 00z Wednesday, gradually decreasing in the evening and overnight hours. IFR/LIFR conditions in SN/+SN expected across the mountains today followed by primarily scattered -SNSH/SNSH after 06z Wednesday. Snow levels remain around 2500-3500 feet through the forecast period, dropping as low as 1000 feet along the Sierra and below 1000 feet across southern Cascades and Shasta County mountains by Wednesday morning. West-southwest winds remain gusty through 00z Wednesday with surface wind gusts up to 65 kts at times, then gradually decreasing overnight. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST Thursday for Burney Basin / Eastern Shasta County-Motherlode-Mountains Southwestern Shasta County to Western Colusa County-Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley-Northern Sacramento Valley-Shasta Lake Area / Northern Shasta County-West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas County/Lassen Park. Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST Thursday for Central Sacramento Valley-Northern Sacramento Valley-Southern Sacramento Valley. && $$ 175 FXUS65 KMSO 172144 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 244 PM MST Tue Feb 17 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Relatively dry, westerly push of Arctic air tonight will drop wind chills to below zero along and west of the Divide. - Accumulating snow across north-central Idaho, spreading into western Montana Wednesday. - Highest probabilities for below zero temperatures exist along and west of Divide Thursday and Friday mornings. - Quiet weekend followed by unsettled pattern next week that could help to build more mountain snowpack. We`ve received several impressive snowfall reports from northwest Montana this afternoon. Up to 8 inches of snow was reported in Hungry Horse, 5 inches in Eureka, 7.5 inches on a bench south of Eureka, and around 4 inches in the Flathead Valley. We even received reports of 4 to 5 inches in the Grangeville area from this morning. The strong low pressure tracked into central Montana this afternoon and caused very strong northerly winds gusting over 50 mph east of the Divide. Supposedly the 985.2 millibar pressure that MSO measured this morning, is the lowest pressure on record for the month of February. The previous record was 985.5 millibars set back on Feb. 1, 1963. Later this evening, Arctic air will begin to move westwards across the Continental Divide and spill into the Flathead Valley, and move into the Blackfoot/Butte Region. There is a high probability(85%) that gusts could exceed 35 mph through Badrock Canyon to the Glacier Park International Airport, and also in the Helmville area tonight through noon Wednesday. You combine the wind and the low temperatures reaching the single digits in these areas, wind chill temperatures will be below zero. If you are planning to travel the US-2 corridor or the Highway 200 corridor east of Bonner, make sure you have emergency gear in your vehicle, including extra clothes, hats and gloves. The cold and wind may be stressful for newborn livestock. Thanks to the very cold temperatures aloft within the deep trough over the Pacific Northwest, the unstable conditions are already producing snow showers across Washington and Oregon and southern Idaho this afternoon. This activity is expected to shift northwards towards north-central Idaho tonight. Hence, we have hoisted winter weather advisories from Idaho into western Montana. The probabilities were not very high for the Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys, and towards the Seeley Lake region. There was a question of how much moisture will be available by Wednesday morning. The other valid question was how far west was the Arctic front going to move because if you don`t have the cold air in place, you won`t have good overrunning conditions. The latest 18z run of the NAM trended a little bit moister for these areas, so will let the evening shift reassess if those locations need advisories or not. There may be some instability for the shortwave to tap into during the day Wednesday. The models have had a difficult time pinpointing where the best forcing or where the strongest part of this wave will end up. The latest 18z HRRR depicts that the area that could get better enhancement may be across Sanders and Mineral Counties. So this means there could be an area that picks up a little bit more than other areas because of the snow showers. The probabilities for sub-zero low temperatures range from 30 to 40 percent in the Flathead Valley to Eureka, but are much higher, closer to 90 percent for Polebridge, Marias Pass, and in the high valleys west of the Divide in Powell County on Thursday morning. Other than the cold temperatures, there could be persistent light snow showers through Friday. A ridge will build over the weekend, so the chance for snow will be decreased. As for next week, the ensemble clusters depict another deep trough impacting the western U.S. early next week. The NBM is bringing in likely chance for precipitation by Monday and Tuesday across our region with higher snow levels(3500 to 4500 feet). This could mean a chance for mixed precipitation in the valleys, but mountain snowfall. && .AVIATION...A broad trough over the region and cold front this morning have brought quite a lot of moisture and snow to the boundary layer. A shortwave ridge at the 700mb level has helped to suppress further showers this afternoon. An arctic air mass east of the Continental Divide will seep through area passes late tonight, starting around 18/08Z. As the shortwave ridge fades and the cooler air pools in the valleys of western Montana, up-slope flow across the mountains of central Idaho will generate enough lift to produce light snow showers. With the broad upper level trough remaining in place, the 700mb shortwave ridge moving out of the region, and a very moist boundary layer, and some lift with the up-slope flow, we have all the ingredients for moderate to heavy snow showers across the region tomorrow. High resolution ensembles are predicting timing for showers to start up around 18/19Z. These showers will move along quickly and cause brief periods of moderate to heavy snow. Terminals KHRF, KMSO, KSMN, and KBTM are most likely to be directly impacted by showers. Watch for more snow impacts at area terminals in the next few TAFs issued. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 5 PM MST Wednesday for Kootenai/Cabinet Region. Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM MST Thursday for West Glacier Region. Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 5 PM MST Wednesday for Flathead/Mission Valleys. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 11 PM MST Wednesday for Lower Clark Fork Region. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 PM MST Wednesday for Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains. ID...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 1 PM PST Wednesday for Northern Clearwater Mountains. Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 1 PM PST Wednesday for Southern Clearwater Mountains. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Wednesday for Orofino/Grangeville Region. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 8 AM PST Thursday for Lower Hells Canyon/Salmon River Region. && $$ 703 FXUS65 KBOI 180428 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 928 PM MST Tue Feb 17 2026 .DISCUSSION...A weak shortwave will track over the area tonight, with showers along a weak front extending from McCall to the Owyhees. This will continue to track east tonight, with light snow with these showers. As the system tracks east, winds increase on Wednesday afternoon, with 30-40 mph across the Magic Valley. Snow showers will redevelop with the daytime heating, especially over the mountains on Wednesday afternoon. Snow amounts will be highly variable due to the showery nature. No updates. && .AVIATION...Generally VFR with localized LIFR-IFR in scattered heavy snow showers and patchy valley fog primarily near KBNO- KBKE-KMYL and KTWF-KJER. Clearing will occur from west to east late Wednesday morning. Surface winds: S-SE 10-20 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the Snake River Plain tonight then shifting to W-NW 10 to 20 kt by Wed/12Z. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: S-SW 30-50 kt. KBOI...VFR with a 30% chance of brief MVFR-IFR conditions in mixed rain/snow showers through Wed/18Z, clearing by early afternoon. Surface winds: SE 10-15 kt shifting to W-NW after Wed/08Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night...The main upper trough remains offshore tonight, but a weak shortwave associated with a cold front will continue to support convective showers across the region through late tonight. This shortwave will track northeast across central Oregon into northeast Oregon and north central Idaho. The greatest shower coverage will be across southeast Oregon, where instability is maximized along the southern edge of the shortwave and frontal boundary. A 10 to 15 percent chance of thunder remains with these showers. Any stronger cells will be capable of producing brief heavy snow and graupel, which could lead to rapid visibility reductions and slick travel conditions. Light to moderate snowfall will continue across the central Idaho mountains. Expect mountain valleys to see 2 to 5 inches of new snow, while locations above 5500 feet could see 5 to 10 inches through Wednesday evening. For the Snake River Plain, occasional rain, snow, or graupel showers will continue, with snow showers possible after sunset. By mid Wednesday morning, the trough begins to shift into Montana as the remaining cold front exits into eastern Idaho. This introduces northwesterly flow, which is a favorable upslope pattern for Treasure Valley snow showers Wednesday morning into the early afternoon. Accumulations will be limited, with a 90 percent chance that the Treasure Valley sees less than two tenths of an inch of snow, though localized spots could see up to half an inch. The Western Magic Valley could also see up to half an inch of snow through Wednesday morning. Snow coverage does not appear sufficient to greatly impact the morning commute, though drivers should expect to see snow off and on Wednesday morning. Expect breezy westerly winds from Mountain Home through the Western Magic Valley Wednesday afternoon with gusts up to 40 mph. By Thursday, the region remains in a cool and unstable post frontal environment. Another weak trough moving northwest to southeast, combined with daytime heating, will trigger another round of snow showers mainly across southeast Oregon. Expect light accumulations of up to 2 inches in the mountains on Thursday, with only a slight chance of light rain or snow showers in the lower valleys. Temperatures will remain several degrees below normal through the period. LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...Lingering showers over the mountains generally dissipate Friday as ridging builds in for the weekend. Precip out of these showers is likely to be snow with lower snow levels in the colder airmass behind the low pressure in the short term. As that low pressure weakens and moves east, the high pressure ridge builds in with clear skies and warm southwest flow aloft. This will warm us up quickly through the weekend into early next week, with temps starting near 5-10 degrees below normal on Friday and rising to a few degrees above normal by Monday. During this period, another strong Alaskan low amplifies as it sits off the Pacific Northwest coast. Recent model runs have taken this low further west, reducing chances of precipitation this weekend and strengthening the warming trend. However, by Monday evening and Tuesday models are consistent with this strong low rejoining the jet stream and bringing moisture through the area. A 50-80% chance of precipitation on Tuesday and snow levels near 4-5 kft MSL means many mountains will see more snow quickly following the period of warm weather. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise DISCUSSION...KA AVIATION.....SA SHORT TERM...JDS LONG TERM....JM 097 FXUS65 KLKN 162039 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1239 PM PST Mon Feb 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... 1237 PM PST Mon Feb 16 2026 * Strong southwest winds in Central Nevada today and Tuesday * A series of storm systems will impact Northern and Central Nevada this afternoon through Wednesday evening, and Thursday afternoon into Friday * Snow levels will drop to the valley floor early Tuesday morning * Winter driving conditions likely on all roads Tuesday night and Wednesday morning && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Sunday) Strong series of upper level troughs on approach to Nevada today will bring strong winds, rain, and snow across the state through Friday. Strong southwest winds have developed across central and northern Nevada ahead of the first upper trough which is currently over California. Winds of 25 MPH to 35 MPH with gusts up to 55 MPH will be possible today lasting into the morning hours with patchy areas of blowing dust possible. Because of this, a wind advisory in effect across central Nevada through Wednesday evening. Precipitation from this upper trough will begin this evening with a winter weather advisory in effect starting at 4 PM. For the valleys and passes, thanks to the warm temperatures of the last few days, precipitation will start as rain. Unfortunately, this winter models have not handled the timing of precipitation change over to well, showing a cold bias in forecast temperatures. Current projections show a change over occurring overnight between 10 PM and 2 AM, which matches the timing of the heaviest precipitation. If timing is any later the bulk of the precipitation with this first wave may well be rain/snow mix for elevation below 6000 ft. After a brief lull, wave two will push into Nevada Tuesday night into Wednesday afternoon. This wave looks to be the strongest wave, and colder than the first. Snow levels by Tuesday morning will have dropped to the valley floors and precipitation type with this wave looks to be all snow. This second wave has trended a bit south over the last few runs with central Nevada looking to pick up the most accumulations with this second wave. Overall valley snow totals have come down a bit due from previous runs due to warmer temperatures and lower overall QPF in the models. Between this evening through Wednesday, northern Nevada valleys could receive between 0.10 and 0.50 of water, of that 1 to 5 of snowfall. N NV passes could see between 2 to 6 of snow, while mountains see all snow with up to 12 to 24 of snow. Central NV Valleys could see between 0.20 to 0.60 of water of which 2 to 6 of snow could fall, US 50 Passes could see between 3 and 8 of snow with central NV mountain seeing up to 2 feet of new snow. After another brief lull a third upper trough looks to pass through Nevada Thursday evening through Friday. Current model forecast show this system to be the drier than the previous two, with overall QPF ranging between 0.05 and 0.35. Good news is this will be in the form of snow with an additional 1 to 3 for the valleys and 2 to 6 for the passes and range summits. For next weekend a shortwave ridge will serve to quiet things down, but models show the potential for a fourth upper level storm system moving in for next Monday bringing more chances for rain and snow for the west. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence in the chances for strong southwest winds with local areas of blowing dust this afternoon and evening. There is moderate confidence for lower elevation rain, mountain snow showers tonight changing over to snow across Nevada Tuesday morning There is moderate to high confidence in a second stronger system moving through Nevada Tuesday evening into Wednesday with snow accumulation in the valleys of 1 to 5, Passes seeing 2 to 8 and mountains seeing between 1 to 2 feet of snow by Wednesday evening. There is moderate confidence for a third system bringing light snow showers Thursday into Friday. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are forecast through Tuesday morning. Strong winds have developed ahead of an upper trough for KEKO, KELY, and KTPH. Expected winds of S-SW20-30G35-45KT possible through 12Z Tuesday. Other locations (KWMC, KBAM, KENV) in the north will see winds S-SW15-20G35KT this afternoon. BLDU from the strongest winds could produce reduced VSBY to one mile or less but confidence remains too low to place in TAFs. VCSH is expected after 22Z across KTPH and KWMC, and by 01Z Tuesday for KBAM, KEKO, and KELY. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PST Wednesday NVZ030-031-035>041. Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PST Wednesday NVZ034. Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST Tuesday NVZ035-037-040-041. && $$ DISCUSSION...98 AVIATION...98 |
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US Dept of Commerce
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Weather Service
Seattle, WA
3101 Auburn Way South
Auburn, WA 98092
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