154 FXUS66 KSEW 230455 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 855 PM PST Thu Jan 22 2026 .UPDATE... Clouds and even a few echoes on radar are the only clues to a weak system along the coast. However, this has not been enough to dispel fog concerns, only changing location of focus as primary development areas are the south Sound, a little further north in the Hood Canal area and in the Port Angeles/Strait area. Any locations seeing precip will see very light amounts, if any. Inherited forecast is on track. No updated needed. && .SYNOPSIS... High pressure has shifted offshore with a weak disturbance increasing cloud cover across the region today. High pressure returns on Friday and Saturday, with a return of foggy and cold mornings. Another weak system approaches, but the ridge remains strong enough to keep the region blocked through the first half of next week. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A cooler and cloudier day across the region with a weak the ridge weakening and shifting offshore, allowing an impulse to slide down. This weak system may bring a few light showers to the coastal areas. While there isn`t much moisture with it, temperatures will again drop below freezing so any moisture could freeze and create slick spots on untreated surfaces. Upper level high pressure rebounds Friday and Saturday with a slightly cooler air mass, leaving high temperatures will stay in the low to mid 50s both days. Temperatures will also cool slightly overnight, with low temperatures in the mid to upper 20s. Renewed fog development each night and early morning could bring the potential for slick conditions and reduced visibility in the freezing fog. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A highly amplified synoptic pattern will remain in place across much of North America moving into the early portion of next week. This will initially keep a mean upper ridge position along the West Coast. There are, however, signs of this pattern changing toward the middle of next week that will favor the return of more typically active, wetter weather. Model ensembles depict broad positive height anomalies extending northward into Alaska being replaced by a mean upper trough over the Gulf of Alaska toward the Wednesday and Thursday time frame. While this isn`t expected to introduce any particularly impactful weather as of yet, it will put Western Washington in closer proximity to a few frontal systems that will bring the first meaningful chances of precipitation in nearly two weeks. 27 && .AVIATION... Upper level ridging centered offshore and a broad upper trough east of the Rockies are producing northwest flow aloft over Western Washington today. A dissipating frontal system is spreading abundant high and mid level moisture across the region this afternoon with a few showers near the coast. VFR prevails across most of the interior except for a few pockets of IFR near Hood Canal. MVFR ceilings are expected to persist overnight along the coast. The weak system will exit late tonight with a recurrence of areas of IFR/LIFR ceilings in low clouds and fog expected once again on Friday morning...especially across south Puget Sound and outlying valleys. Primarily VFR is expected areawide Friday afternoon as increasing low level northerly flow acts to scour out much of the low level moisture. KSEA...Primarily VFR conditions are expected into this evening under varying degrees of high/mid clouds. Confidence in the evolution of low cloud development tonight remains low. A period of IFR ceilings is expected Friday morning, but increasing low level northerly flow should help erode it by mid to late morning. Surface winds light and variable today becoming north/northeasterly 5 to 8 knot late tonight into Friday morning. 27 && .MARINE... High pressure will then build back into the waters Friday while a thermal trough builds northward along the coast. Offshore flow returns and may be breezy at times, especially along the central and western Strait of Juan de Fuca and along the gaps in the coastal terrain. Fraser Outflow will increase early Friday morning and will also bring breezy northeasterly winds to portions of the Northern Inland Waters on Friday. While gusts to around 20 kt are the most likely scenario, there`s around a 30-40% chance of gusts to 25-30 kt and if this increases, a small craft advisory may be needed. Offshore flow will persist through the weekend, but will be weaker. A weak frontal system looks to reach the waters by early next week, allowing for winds to gradually shift back to the south across the area waters by Monday. Southerly winds look to increase Tuesday into Wednesday as another, stronger frontal system approaches the region. Seas will hold steady between 3-6 ft through the weekend, but look to build closer to 10 ft near the middle of next week as the stronger systems move back into the area. && .HYDROLOGY... No river flooding is expected during the next seven days. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...None. && $$

860 FXUS66 KPQR 222224 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 224 PM PST Thu Jan 22 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Dry weather is expected to continue through most of the weekend as high pressure stubbornly holds over the region. There is a slight chanced of showers tonight over the coast and Cascades as a weak shortwave trough moves over the forecast area. Gusty winds persist through the Columbia Gorge. Expect cold overnight lows in the in the low 30s to low 20s each night through morning hours into Monday morning. Clear skies and light winds away from the Columbia River Gorge will result in frost and/or freezing fog formation for a decent swath of the interior lowland valleys and coast range Valleys. Near/below freezing temperatures in combination with any fog/frost may lead to locally slick road conditions. Chances for precipitation return by the middle of next week, but details on the exact timing and impacts remain rather uncertain at this time. && .DISCUSSION...Tonight through Wednesday night...An upper level ridge of high pressure remains entrenched over the Pac NW and NE Pacific through the end of the week. While current satellite and radar observations are showing a shortwave trough and light precipitation impacting areas around the Astoria, OR and the Long Beach Peninsula, am not expecting any significant precipitation along the coast or inland. So, given that there has been minimal change in the overall synoptic pattern, expect another night of very cold temperatures across the CWA. Overnight lows are expected to be generally be in the low to mid 20s and while winds are expected to decrease into this evening, expect apparent/wind chill/skin feel temperatures to make it feel like temperatures are in the low 20s. It should be noted that the incoming shortwave will bring clouds into the region and they could provide some insulation, thus keeping areas slightly warmer. However, model ensembles are pointing towards clearing skies overnight. Therefore, have issued a Cold Weather Advisory for the majority of the CWA, with the exception of Coastal locations and elevations above 2000 ft within the Central Oregon Cascades. Stagnant air remains a concern with the persistent ridge and associated subsidence inversion. This is leading to air quality concerns into Friday as mixing heights will remain low and transport winds will be weak. Therefore, an Air Stagnation Advisory is in effect through at least Friday, after which there is moderate confidence on overall improvement. At this time, the Portland Metro area from the West Hills eastward were not included in this advisory due to increased winds from the Gorge maintaining a more mixed atmosphere. As the weekend approaches, ensembles are in very good agreement that the ridge rebuilds over the CWA late Friday into Sunday. This will maintain the already dry conditions and bring a return of breezy east winds through the western Gorge into the eastern Portland metro with peak gusts of 40 mph. Skies are also expected to clear by Friday evening, and with the surface inversion strengthening again, strong radiational cooling, and a colder temperatures pushed into the region behind the shortwave, Friday night into Saturday morning is looking to see the coldest conditions of the winter so far. There`s an 85-95% chance of apparent temperatures/wind chills falling towards 25 degrees or lower across the majority of the Willamette Valley, Coast Range, and SW Washington lowlands including the outskirts of the Portland/Vancouver metro area. Probabilities are a touch lower for the inner Portland/Vancouver metro area, around 60-80%. The higher elevations of the Upper Hood River Valley could also meet their Cold Weather Advisory criteria of wind chills at or below 15 degrees for at least 4 hours with a 65-90% chance. Cold overnight to morning temperatures will continue into at least Monday morning as high pressure persists, though the potential for Cold Weather Advisory criteria lowers each night as temperatures warm very slightly each night. A pattern change remains on the horizon for Sunday/Monday as the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian ensembles along with their deterministic counterparts still suggest a low pressure system moving through the NE Pacific and into the Pac NW. This system looks to briefly breaking down the strong ridge which has been anchored over the region. It should be noted that subsequent runs as well as 500mb cluster analysis are showing this system getting weaker with every new run as it gets closer to land, and around 50% of ensemble members suggest this low might not even be able to break down the ridge at all as this system could be the "sacrificial" system that could help bolster the following system next Tuesday/Wednesday. There`s now only a 10-20% chance of precipitation, mainly over the coast and terrain, with limited accumulation. As the middle of next week approaches, ensemble guidance remains in agreement that a moderate, Pacific low will finally break down the strong ridging over the region, though details with this weather system are frankly all over the place. Overall, there is a lot of uncertainty for this system. At this time, model ensemble guidance is pointing towards a moderate PoP (35-60% chance) with relatively low/moderate QPF (0.10-0.50 inches total) event. At this point, there are no major impacts expected with this weather system, and if precipitation does occur, it would be more beneficial than impactful, especially after the recent dry spell. /42/03 && .AVIATION...Increasing northwesterly flow aloft today as an upper level ridge remains offshore over the northeastern Pacific. There is also increasing mid-level moisture associated with an upper trough that will drop across the region later today which will bring broken to overcast clouds across the area through tonight. Expect conditions to remain predominately VFR, except at the northern coast, where there is at least a 60% chance for MVFR CIGs of around 1500-2500 ft through tonight. There is also a 20-30% chance for some light showers for the coast through 12z Friday. Skies clear again by Friday afternoon. East winds with gusts to around 25 kt will continue at KTTD through the period. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Conditions expected to remain VFR through the period with mid to high level clouds increasing through this evening. Southeast winds around 4-8 kt this afternoon expected to ease below 5 kt this evening. East winds remain breezy for east approaches with gusts to around 25 kt at KTTD. /DH && .MARINE...Rather benign conditions continue across the coastal waters. High pressure offshore will maintain northerly breezes over the waters today. A very weak front drops across the waters tonight, turning winds back offshore by Friday morning. East to northeasterly winds increase through Friday evening as the thermal trough along the coast expands northward and high pressure rebuilds inland. Winds generally increase to around 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, but isolated gusts to 25 kt will be possible extending from gaps in the coast range and across the far outer coastal waters. Winds ease again through the weekend as pressure gradients decrease. Weak low pressure drifting offshore will cause the winds to turn southerly by Monday. The next frontal system is likely to approach the waters by the middle of next week returning increasing chances for Small Craft Advisory conditions on Wednesday. Seas are expected to persist at around 4 to 6 ft with wave periods varying between 11-15 seconds through the weekend. Not much change to the overall sea state into early next week. /DH && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Air Stagnation Advisory until noon PST Friday for ORZ104-105-108- 109-114>118-123. Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to noon PST Friday for ORZ104>125. WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until noon PST Friday for WAZ204>206. Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to noon PST Friday for WAZ202>210. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

982 FXUS66 KMFR 230005 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 405 PM PST Thu Jan 22 2026 .DISCUSSION...Updated aviation discussion. && .AVIATION...23/00Z TAFs...A mostly dry frontal system will move southward through the area tonight through Friday. This will bring a deck of mostly VFR cloudiness with ceilings above 8kft this evening, lowering to around 3-6kft overnight into Friday morning. Precip chances remain low or non-existent in most places, but wouldn`t be surprised if a little light rain falls along the coast north of Cape Blanco or stray snow flurries occur over the higher terrain of the East Side. Meanwhile, LIFR ceilings persist in and around the notorious fog/low cloud "bowls" of Grants Pass/Roseburg. These ceilings will be difficult to break given the strength of the inversion tonight. However, the system arriving from the north could allow for just enough mixing on Friday for conditions to improve to VFR. Model guidance isn`t much help in this regard seeing as it doesn`t even acknowledge the existence of the fog/low clouds right now. But, since the overall air mass will be drying out, we`re optimistically allowing for a period of VFR conditions there late in the afternoon. Cloud cover (6-8kft) coming into the area from the north tonight could be timed well enough to preclude fog development here in Medford. Due to this likelihood, we`ve backed off on the forecast of LIFR conditions, though still hinted at some potential for fog or a low ceiling to develop around or just after sunrise at KMFR. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 305 PM PST Thu Jan 22 2026/ DISCUSSION... The ridge that has been lingering over the forecast area for the better part of two weeks will finally star to break down, or at least move farther west later tonight into Friday. Models show a shortwave and some energy pushing into southern Oregon and northern California tonight. This will result in a weaker inversion and low chance of precipitation east of the Cascades tonight and perhaps along the coast. The chance of precipitation is about 10 to 15 percent. Looking at some soundings, one can see there should be a cloud layer around 750 to 700 mb, so lows shouldn`t drop as low tonight compared to last night, especially east of the Cascades. Therefore, we dismissed the cold weather advisory for tonight. However, it will be cooler than normal later tonight. The pattern continues to change with a strong surface high building east of the Cascades and east to west wind flow developing during the day. The air will become fairly dry with some cooler air trying to settle into the valleys on Friday night and Saturday morning. This is the day of higher concern for colder overnight lows with the potential for freezing temperatures along the coast. The NBM has a 50% chance of temperatures <32 around North Bend on Friday night and Saturday morning. Therefore, we decided to issue a freeze watch for the immediate coast in Douglas and Coos Counties. The main impact is for plants and some outdoor plumbing that could freeze overnight. High pressure will rebuild by Sunday as a short wave approaches the Oregon coastline around Sunday night. This wave will come in dry, although we should see some cloud cover and perhaps a stray shower along the Oregon coastline around Monday afternoon and evening. The big change is anticipated around Wednesday as a cold front pushes into Oregon and northern California. Ensemble data is showing precipitation hitting the region with the heaviest rainfall to our south. There is still a rather large number of members that keep us dry and not much if anything falling in southern Oregon and northern California. The NBM forecast has very little snow accumulating on the mountains, so it`s not looking great for accumulating snowpack right now. Overall, the dryish trend continues, although the weather pattern will likely become more progressive by next week. -Smith AVIATION (18Z TAFs)...The main areas of concern for low ceilings and fog are in west side valleys and out to the Coquille Valley. The Rogue Valley has seen some improvements near Medford to VFR conditions, although Grants Pass will still have the lower conditions through this morning. The Umpqua Basin, including Roseburg, will not see much recovery today besides some relief in visibilities this afternoon, but the terminal is likely to stay in IFR/LIFR today as trends continue. For North Bend, it has been noted that between 06Z-12Z there could be a lower ceiling if the Coquille Valley low clouds expand west enough. However, overall expecting VFR conditions at North Bend and Klamath Falls. -Hermansen MARINE...Updated 230 PM PST Thursday, January 22, 2026... Northerly winds have been increasing today and will continue through Friday. Seas are steep and hazardous to smaller crafts south of Cape Blanco, especially beyond 10 nm from shore. Sustained winds will be 20 to 30 knots with gusts around 35 knots with wind wave dominated seas under 10 feet. Winds will weaken Saturday as they become northeasterly, with conditions continuing to improve into early next week. A more active pattern is expected to follow later next week with a couple of cold fronts possible around middle of next week. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for ORZ021. Air Stagnation Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for ORZ023-024-026- 029>031. Freezing Fog Advisory until noon PST Friday for ORZ024. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM PST Saturday for PZZ356-376. && $$

440 FXUS66 KEKA 222258 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 229 PM PST Thu Jan 22 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Clearer and more dry conditions will settle across the area this weekend with some particularly cold mornings with lows near freezing. Conditions will slightly warm and moisten next week with increasing chances of wetting rain late in the week. && .DISCUSSION...A cutoff low continues to move south along the California Coast today, helping to turn wind offshore and pull in generally drier air. Skies have gradually cleared, even along the coast, as a result. Cold air building just east of the area will continue to reinforce offshore flow into the evening. This will allow for more consistently clear skies and very dry conditions with daytime RH possibly dipping into the teens, especially at some higher elevations. Clear skies and dry air will enable cold overnight conditions, particularly Friday and Saturday nights. Highs will most likely be right around freezing. Friday night, there is a roughly 20 to 40% chance of interior valley lows below 30 degrees with a 10% chance closer to the coast. Chances increase Saturday night with interior probabilities of 40 to 70%, though near coastal probabilities remain low near 10%, likely thanks to shallow fog formation. Such temperatures could pose a risk to sensitive outdoor plants and those without housing. Conditions will slightly warm but greatly moisten early next week as a weak warm front alongside a push of southerly winds crosses the area around Tuesday. Increasing midlevel clouds will generally limit the high temperature potential. There is high model agreement that a weak and quick moving trough will cross the area behind the warm front sometime around Wednesday. This trough will bring the first real chances of wetting rain since the first week of January. Rain will most likely be relatively evenly spread across the area from North to South with only a slight focus on the North Coast. There remains very high model spread in terms of rain amounts. For low elevations, model means over 48 hours are around 0.2 to 0.5 inches, though there is a 10% chance of greater than 1.5 inches or even greater at higher elevations. At the same time, the bottom 30% of models still show no rain at all. In any case, more moist conditions are essentially certain, even should no rain occur, and even the very high end of forecast will pose little to no flood risk given the recent dry period. Long range ensembles show generally good agreement that a wetter pattern will then continue through the end of January. Again, model spread remains high with round of light to moderate rain being most likely through next weekend. /JHW && .AVIATION...Stratus has been clearing out over Humboldt bay and at KACV this afternoon. This trend to mostly VFR conditions will continue into this afternoon, but some mist and low clouds may redevelop specifically around Humboldt and in the Eel delta by mid evening. Offshore flow will likely limit the chances of widespread stratus development tonight, especially for KCEC area where offshore flow will be strongest. Around Humboldt Bay and Eel delta some stratus may linger overnight before scouring out Friday morning. Now for southern Mendocino, particularly at KUKI, guidance is suggesting a chance for IFR by early Friday morning as a southerly push develops in the wake of transient trough. Some low ceilings and vsbys for KUKI may occur (30% chance) early Friday morning. Confidence KUKI will have LIFR remains low with boundary layer humidity from some of the more reliable models no more than 80%. Otherwise, expecting VFR to prevail except for fog and low clouds in the interior river valleys late tonight and early Fri morning. Northerlies aloft increase after 23/06z and shallow low level turbulence and/or low level wind shear will become a hazard for small aircraft, primarily over Humboldt county from KACV southward, more specifically over the King Range. && .MARINE...Northerly winds have gradually increased through the day. Gusts up to 20kts have been observed int he inner waters with gusts closer to 30 kts in the outer waters. Winds will continue to increase overnight with a 60 to 70% chance of gusts over 34 kts by midnight tonight. Gale gust coverage increases after 8-10PM with very steep seas building to 9-11 ft overnight into Friday. Combined seas will build to 10 to 14 feet in the outer waters by Friday afternoon. Ocean conditions will also deteriorate Thursday night and Friday for the inner waters. Gale gusts are certainly probable around notorious wind prone locations such as Cape Mendocino and perhaps around Pt St George, but the primary hazard for the waters appears to be large steep waves arising from the strong northerlies offshore. Seas are unlikely to reach 10 feet but will still be very steep between 8 and 9 feet. Conditions look to gradually improve over the weekend as the axis of strong north wind shifts outside of NW California waters and steep wind waves gradually subside. In this mix of steep short period waves will be a long period (>16 seconds) westerly swell on Thu that will decay through Fri. A mid period swell near 14 second follow on Fri, followed by third mid period group on Sat. None of these appear to pose a risk for sneaker waves at this time. /JHW && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 3 AM PST Saturday for PZZ450. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 3 AM PST Saturday for PZZ455. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for PZZ470-475. Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 3 AM PST Saturday for PZZ470-475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

389 FXUS66 KMTR 230359 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 759 PM PST Thu Jan 22 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 213 PM PST Thu Jan 22 2026 - Morning fog across some Bay Area Valleys and around Monterey - Gusty offshore winds across higher terrain of the North Bay late Friday into Saturday - Potential weak to moderate storm system next week around Wednesday && .UPDATE... Issued at 753 PM PST Thu Jan 22 2026 The big focus tonight is fog. The high clouds have cleared, allowing for enhanced radiational cooling tonight. The surface dew points are also in the mid 40s to low 50s, plenty moist enough for radiation fog. In addition to the radiation fog forming in the valleys, advection fog is possible from both the marine layer to the west and Tule fog to the East. With this perfect storm of radiation and advection fog ingredients, high resolution models are indicating a high probability of fog and low clouds forming below 1,000 feet in elevation across the Bay Area and Central Coast, particularly along the coast and in the valleys. We will closely monitor the situation and issue dense fog advisories as needed. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 213 PM PST Thu Jan 22 2026 (This evening through Friday) The closed low that brought showers to the area last night and this morning is spinning further away to the south. An inside tracking low pressure system (inside slider) will quickly dig into Nevada late Friday. As a result, temperatures will not recover and remain around normal, some issues will continue, and north to northeast winds will start to develop. For the low clouds and fog, coverage should be fairly similar to this morning, with the north hills, southern Bay Area, and Monterey areas likely to see some. Visibilities could drop to below 1 mile in some spots. For the winds, speeds will be fairly light through mid-day Friday, then northerly winds will start to pick up. By Friday evening, gusts of 25 to 35 mph will develop mainly over the interior mountains of the North Bay area. The winds will turn northeasterly and spread by early Saturday (see long term section). && .LONG TERM... Issued at 213 PM PST Thu Jan 22 2026 (Friday night through next Wednesday) As the cold air from the insider slider settles into Idaho and Nevada on Saturday, the offshore leaning surface pressure gradients will strengthen. The winds aloft will also become offshore from the surface through and above 10,000 feet, resulting in a deep layer of 25 to 35 knot flow. The combination of this surface pattern and moderate upper level support will allow the winds at the ground to shift to north to northeasterly and expand on Saturday, then persist into Sunday. The winds will affect much of the wind prone areas, but be focused over the northern mountains and hills where wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph will be common, and isolated gusts of 45 mph are possible. The air will also get very dry, but fire weather concerns are low due to the state of the fuels. The offshore flow will shut down by Monday as weak ridging aloft will bring fairly quiet conditions into Tuesday. Some low clouds and fog will likely form over the coastal areas as the marine layer reestablishes itself. Then big question marks start to pop up after that. About half of the ensemble projections show a rain making cold front moving down the coast around Wednesday or Thursday, with some gusty south winds. The other half do not. If it does rain, the amounts will be light as none of the individual runs have anything over an inch. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 332 PM PST Thu Jan 22 2026 The big story for the aviation forecast is the potential for fog formation overnight. Current dew points are in the mid to upper 40s across the San Francisco Bay Area, and low 50s across the Monterey Bay area. This is a few degrees higher than yesterday, but the temperature are anywhere from 5-15 degrees warmer so the RH is actually lower across the board. However, the clearing skies will allow for enhanced radiational cooling in the valleys. The effect will be bolstered by the return of onshore winds and the reintroduction of a cool, moist marine influenced air mass near the coast and adjacent valleys. Vicinity of SFO...The marine layer is expected to be around 1,000 feet deep when the onshore flow returns throughout the boundary layer this evening. That`s deep enough to spill over San Bruno Mountain and impact the terminal. It`s unclear if this will be in the form of ceilings, fog, both, or neither. The most likely outcome is IFR ceilings through the morning hours, but there is still a lot of uncertainty until the winds flip to onshore and clouds start to fill the coastal waters. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Marine layer impacts are expected at both MRY and SNS Thursday night through Friday morning, with higher confidence than the northern terminals due to the higher dew points. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 113 PM PST Thu Jan 22 2026 North winds and choppy seas will steadily increase through Friday over the region, strongest over the northern outer waters. Small Craft Advisories are already posted, with a 30 percent chance of localized Gale Force winds over the outer waters off Point Arena on Friday. Seas and winds will gradually ease Saturday afternoon and remain around typical into the beginning of next week. Steep seas and gusty south winds possible around mid-week with a storm system. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...RK LONG TERM....RK AVIATION...Flynn MARINE...RK Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

683 FXUS66 KOTX 222352 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 352 PM PST Thu Jan 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low confidence in a break of the quiet weather pattern by the end of the weekend into early next week. && .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure will dominate the weather this week, with quiet weather expected for the Inland Northwest. Dry conditions will persist until at least Thursday, with the potential for a return of light precipitation over the area. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Sunday: The ridge remains in place over the PNW coast, and has brought continued dry conditions and stratus to the forecast area. This ridge will finally break down slightly as a trough noses in from the east tonight into tomorrow. While this trough will mostly impact areas east of Idaho, it will result in a push of dry air through the forecast area. PWATs drop from 70-80 percent of normal to 30-40 percent of normal. This will clear out the stratus and finally bring some sunshine to valley areas. The trough will tighten the pressure gradient slightly, leading to elevated northwest winds tonight through tomorrow morning. Sustained winds 10- 15 mph with gusts up to 20-25 mph are expected. These winds will be brief. The stratus clearing out will result in radiational cooling, bringing low temperatures through Sunday night into the teens for most areas. Bottom line: expect cold, dry conditions through the weekend with a break in overcast skies. Monday through Friday: Ensemble modeling continues to favor high heights over the area through at least Wednesday. A small shortwave embedded within the flow will pass by, but will result in minimal mountain snow and no valley precipitation. The ridge finally flattens on Thursday, which will result in light precipitation throughout the forecast area. Probabilities for 0.1 inches of precipitation are 30-40 percent and above in the Cascades and Idaho Panhandle. For the Spokane/Coeur d`Alene and Pullman/Lewiston areas, these probabilities are 20-30 percent. With a return to overcast skies as precipitation chances increase, radiational cooling will be limited and temperatures will rise. This is set to increase snow levels and lead to at least a rain/snow mix in the lowlands, if not mostly rain. There is good agreement in both cluster analysis and the CPC`s 6-10 and 8-14 Day Outlooks for continued chances of light precipitation and warmer temperatures. /AS && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFs: MVFR conditions expected at all TAF sites through around 6-12z. Dry air expected to scour out stratus and bring the return of VFR conditions into Friday morning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions to return Friday. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 19 30 17 28 17 31 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 19 30 15 29 16 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 22 31 18 28 18 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 25 33 22 32 20 37 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 17 30 13 28 14 30 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 19 27 15 27 16 29 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 17 28 15 26 14 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 23 36 18 32 18 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 24 34 22 32 20 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 23 34 18 32 18 31 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

049 FXUS66 KPDT 222249 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 249 PM PST Thu Jan 22 2026 .DISCUSSION... An area of surface high pressure remains over Eastern Washington into central Oregon Tonight as visible satellite imagery continues to show widespread stratus across all areas expect for the higher elevations of the eastern mountains. A subtle 500 mb pos vorticity moves northwest to southeast across the area after midnight and through about 00z Friday, offering a slight (localized 20% chances) adjustment to our possible sensible weather. NBM is modeling some very light snow accums (Trace 0.1) across WA694 zone, as well as across the Oregon Cascades. As this system is weak, the surface pattern/cold pool is not anticipated to change. Given this pattern of persistence is expected for another couple of days we extrapolated out probabilities for freezing fog for Tonight. Stratus is likely to remain in place until the weekend when the next approaching system can disrupt the weak pressure gradient we now have and allow the boundary layer winds to develop. Afternoon high temperatures continue to remain well below the NBM values, in the areas under stratus and area closer to NBM 10th or even 5th percentile values. Current forecast continues to reflect a blend of persistence and the 25th percentile NBM through Saturday afternoon. Air Quality Advisory was reposted/extended though Monday morning for southern Deschutes county. Ensemble 850 mb winds suggests a dominant westerly component and stronger winds speeds in excess of 15kts over a more broad area from the Columbia River Gorge through all of SE WA by Monday, which could be able to mix out some of the areas that have been seeing low stratus and fog for several days in a row. NBM warms temperatures into the upper 30s across ridges to the 40s in the lower elevations and basins. && .AVIATION... A range of impacts will persist for the terminals through at least late Friday morning. A blanket of stratus in the 1500 to 2000 ft range persists with a weak shortwave riding nw to southeast overnight, creating orographically lifted snow showers along the Cascades. The system is too weak to impact surface winds Tonight. Lowest visibility and ceilings remain most likely (80%) in the LIFR or VLIFR categories are be expected to return to BDN and RDM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 22 33 19 35 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 24 32 22 34 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 25 38 20 36 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 23 35 19 33 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 24 34 19 34 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 20 34 17 32 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 19 33 13 37 / 0 10 0 0 LGD 21 35 16 35 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 20 36 16 36 / 10 0 0 0 DLS 27 37 23 38 / 20 10 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...71 LONG TERM....71 AVIATION...71

080 FXUS65 KREV 221947 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1147 AM PST Thu Jan 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Gusty northeast to east ridge winds return late Friday through Saturday night, with chilly breezes for lower elevations. * Saturday will be the coldest day of the upcoming week, with hazardous wind chills near or below zero degrees for Sierra backcountry areas. * A slow warming trend with valley inversions resumes next week, then a weak weather system brings chances for light showers mainly near the Sierra by mid-late next week. && .DISCUSSION... Today continues a similar quiet weather pattern, although a thinning of this morning`s thick cloud cover should allow temperatures to warm up by a few degrees compared to yesterday. For the first time in about 2 weeks, much of the freezing fog around Mono Lake has diminished, with weather stations around the Lee Vining area climbing above freezing for the first time since the early January snow event. Most of the region remains between weather systems through the rest of today, except for far southern Mono County being clipped by the outer edge of a closed low off the southern CA/Baja coast. The effects will be minimal, with 10-20% chances for a few snow flurries and sprinkles from Mammoth Lakes/Mammoth Mountain southward through early this evening. This low will eventually move inland across Baja/northwest Mexico this weekend with no further weather impacts to the eastern Sierra. Meanwhile, a back-door cold front will march southward across eastern CA-western NV Friday afternoon and night. This will be accompanied by an uptick in N-NE breezes across lower elevations, followed by stronger NE-E Sierra ridge top winds overnight through Saturday night, with peak gusts near 50 mph projected during the day Saturday. When combined with the colder air mass, wind chills for higher backcountry elevations could dip to near or below zero degrees at times from Saturday morning through Saturday night. Anyone planning recreation activities in the high Sierra this weekend should have plenty of winter weather gear handy to avoid frostbite or hypothermia. For lower elevations, the main effect of this front will be on Saturday with a notable temperature drop as daytime highs only reach the lower-mid 40s, slightly below late January averages. Lows for Saturday night plunge into the teens and single digits for typically cooler valleys. N-NE winds won`t be particularly strong with gusts generally 15-20 mph, but will add some extra chill especially for the US-95 and US-6 corridors of Mineral/SE Mono counties, where these winds will be more persistent. These winds should mix out most of the haze and inversions Saturday, but this will be short-lived. From Sunday through the early next week, we`ll see a return of valley inversions as light winds prevail, although this high pressure ridge is less amplified compared to the mid-January pattern, limiting the inversion strength. Temperatures slowly rise each day starting Sunday, returning to the lower-mid 50s for western NV valleys and 40s for Sierra communities by Tuesday. The next weather system is projected to reach CA/NV around the late Wednesday-Thursday time frame, but the majority of the ensemble guidance favors a weaker system with light precip amounts. Shower chances for the eastern Sierra/Tahoe regions (leaning toward snow) and northeast CA (mainly rain) are currently around 15-25%, dropping to less than 15% for western NV. MJD && .AVIATION... VFR conditions and light winds will continue through much of Friday with valley haze reducing slantwise visibility around the western NV terminals. Dry conditions prevail except for a low 10-20% chance for -SHRA/-SHSN at KMMH thru 02Z this evening. Most of the thicker mid-high level cloud cover thins out this afternoon, but another band of clouds sweeps through tonight. This will limit freezing fog chances to about 20% around KTRK mainly between 10-15Z Friday, more of the patchy and shallower type. A cold front brings a slight increase in N-NE breezes into western NV Friday afternoon with gusts remaining below 20 kt. For Friday night, a band of lower cloud cover may bring MVFR CIGS to Sierra/Tahoe terminals and obscuration of higher terrain around the western NV terminals. Sierra ridge wind gusts increase Friday night with peak gusts to 45 kt on Saturday, producing areas of turbulence near and west of the Sierra crest. MJD && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$

313 FXUS66 KSTO 222126 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 126 PM PST Thu Jan 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Valley low clouds/fog potential through Friday morning. - Fog potential diminishes Saturday-Sunday as north to northeast winds increase Friday night into Saturday. Strongest gusts over the mountains. - Dry weather prevails this weekend, followed by renewed fog potential early next week. && .DISCUSSION... ...Today Through Friday... Current GOES-West satellite imagery shows diminishing fog and low clouds across the Valley this afternoon with scattered mid to high level clouds aloft as an upper low begins it`s path across southern California. We allowed the Dense Fog Advisory to expire at noon, although patchy areas of fog still persist across the Valley. Fog chances return tonight into tomorrow morning. Probabilities for visibilities 0.5 mile or less are 60 to 80% from the central Sacramento Valley and southward, with the highest probabilities in the southern Sacramento Valley. Remember to use low-beam headlights when driving through fog, exercise caution, and slow down. As northerly winds increase Friday afternoon, any fog present should quickly diminish. Strongest winds won`t occur until Saturday, but breezy winds will be present Friday afternoon and evening along the western side of the Sacramento Valley, and in the mountains. ...Friday - Early Next Week... The upper low will trek across southern California over the weekend, weakening the upper level ridge and initiating an offshore flow pattern. As a result, north to northeast winds continue to increase on Saturday. The strongest winds are expected over the Sierra and along the western portion of the Sacramento Valley (I-5 and westward) where probabilities of gusts greater than 30 mph are 60 to 80%. Relative humidities trend lower over the weekend as well, primarily over the mountains, foothills, and northern Sacramento Valley. No precipitation is expected with this weekend`s system. Conditions for widespread fog are less favorable through the weekend as a result of these north to northeast winds. However, as ridging builds back in early next week the potential for Valley low clouds/fog returns. && .AVIATION... Lingering patchy MVFR/IFR conditions in central/southern Sacramento Valley, Delta, and northern San Joaquin Valley through 22-23z Thursday. FG/BR expected to re-develop after 03z-06z Friday with similar aerial extent as today except coverage may extend into the northern Sacramento Valley. Surface winds will be below 12 kts. Increasing north-east winds after 03z Friday, with gusts 15-25 kts across portions of the northern Sacramento Valley and up to 30 kts over the mountains. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

634 FXUS65 KMSO 221911 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1211 PM MST Thu Jan 22 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Cold pools remain dominant across the region causing low clouds and stratus. - Some easterly flow tonight will help erode some of the cloud cover, but ultimately it will reinforce the cold pools. - The upper level ridge progresses east slowly into next week further reinforcing cold pools and stable conditions. - There is about a 20 percent chance of a freezing rain pattern mid next week. Satellite imagery shows cold pools in place over much of the region with the stratus clouds persisting even in Hamilton most of today. With some high cloud cover streaming over and weak winds in the lower atmosphere, we expect those cold pools to remain locked into place through this evening. Tonight a short wave moving south across the region will help some of the very cold air east of the Continental Divide move into the region. As this is a down-slope flow for most locations, it will help erode some of the stratus clouds in the valleys of western Montana. There isn`t enough upper level support for a full strength arctic blast into the region though, so the cold air will just really seep through the passes along the divide. This is very cold air, and ultimately it will settle in the valleys and reinforce the cold pools already there. Then the ridge slowly starts to build back into place over the weekend. There will be a few more shortwaves that move along the boundary of the ridge that may affect the valley cold pools, but it won`t be enough to wipe them out. By early next week the region will be fully under the influence of the ridge. So fog and clouds will continue to blanket much of the region. Mid to late next week, about 20% of models continue to progress the ridge axis farther east. If this happens, it will position us under some moderately moist flow into the ridge. With the established cold pools in the valleys, this is a recipe for light snow, or more likely some freezing rain. At this point though, there is only a 1 in 5 or 20% of that outcome occurring next week. && .AVIATION...Stratus will continue across the region through most of the day today. Some relief is expected tonight as a shortwave moving north-to-south across the region supports some light easterly flow across the Continental Divide. That is generally a down-slope flow direct, and could help erode some of the stratus in the valleys. It will also help to deepen the cold pools in the valley, which will ultimately result in slightly higher cloud bases in the stratus. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

181 FXUS65 KBOI 230351 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 851 PM MST Thu Jan 22 2026 .DISCUSSION...The persistent upper level ridge is beginning to flatten this evening ahead of a shortwave trough dropping out of British Columbia. However, the strong temperature inversion remains firmly in place across the lower valleys of southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho. Satellite imagery and surface observations show widespread low stratus and patchy fog in the Treasure and Magic Valleys, as well as the basins of Baker and Malheur counties. Increasing mid level clouds ahead of the approaching shortwave could help seed the lower stratus and produce occasional flurries tonight through early Friday. A dry cold front associated with the approaching trough will sweep through the region on Friday. This feature will increase surface winds from the northwest, finally providing enough mixing to scour out much of the stagnant cold pool in the valleys. Have updated the forecast to add fog and flurries. && .AVIATION...MVFR in the Snake River Valley terminals this evening in low stratus. IFR-LIFR conditions in very low stratus/fog overnight near KBNO-KBKE-KMYL and KTWF-KJER. VFR elsewhere with some clearing tomorrow afternoon with a dry cold front early afternoon. There is uncertainty in the extent of this clearing, and a 30% chance of the stratus lingering in the lower elevation valleys. Surface winds variable 8 kt or less becoming W-NW 8-12 kt with gusts up to 20 kt by the early afternoon. Winds at 10kft: NW-NE 15-25 kt. KBOI...MVFR this evening with intermittent IFR as the stratus cloud deck lowers overnight. Ceilings improving to MVFR/VFR late tomorrow morning with MVFR-IFR ceilings redeveloping tomorrow night. Surface winds: SW-W 3-5 kt becoming W-NW 8-10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt by late morning. Weekend Outlook...Areas of MVFR-LIFR low clouds and fog Saturday clearing to VFR in the afternoon, except near KTWF KJER. Low stratus and fog will linger in Magic Valley through the weekend. Surface winds NW 5-15 kt Sat afternoon. Sunday VFR with light winds. && .AIR STAGNATION...Poor mixing and stable conditions continue to trap pollutants in the lower valleys this evening. The Air Stagnation Advisory remains in effect until early Friday morning. The arrival of a cold front during the day Friday will bring increased northwest winds and improved vertical mixing depths. This pattern change is expected to ventilate the valleys and end the period of stagnation. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night...One more night of valley inversion, air stagnation, low clouds, and patchy fog before a dry cold front comes in from the north Friday morning, followed by colder air aloft that should end the inversion Friday afternoon. Hi-res models briefly develop more stratus clouds Friday evening, but continued drying from the north will clear it later Friday night. Saturday looks sunny, breezy, and cold (especially at higher elevations), except mostly cloudy in the Magic Valley where convergence from the west and east may produce flurries, then clear, calming, and quite cold everywhere Saturday night. LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...The main upper ridge will rebuild along the coast Sunday with warming again at higher elevations and the start of another inversion Sunday night through Monday. Models bring a weakening Pacific short wave trough through the ridge and inland Tuesday for a 20 to 30 percent chance of snow in northern zones Wednesday, followed by a stronger trough and 30 to 50 percent chance of snow Thursday, again in northern zones, although models have not verified well in the longer time ranges recently. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Air Stagnation Advisory until 5 AM MST Friday IDZ011>014-016-028-033. OR...Air Stagnation Advisory until 5 AM MST /4 AM PST/ Friday ORZ061>064. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise DISCUSSION...JDS AVIATION.....SA AIR STAGNATION...JDS SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....LC

393 FXUS65 KLKN 222042 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1242 PM PST Thu Jan 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1232 PM PST Thu Jan 22 2026 * A weak weather system will usher in cooler temperatures for the weekend with upper ridging building back in for next week * Temperatures will cool to at or below normal levels beginning Friday and lasting through the weekend * Temperatures are expected to warm back to above normal levels by early next week with dry weather returning && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Thursday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A large longwave upper low pressure system south of Hudson Bay still dominates the pattern while a closed shortwave trough is trying to push to the east and southeast in the eastern Pacific. A weak impulse diving south from the Pacific Northwest will be pushing through the area tomorrow and Saturday. The flow will gradually shift to the north Friday and Saturday. Winds are expected to shift to the north with isolated gusts 20 to 30 mph, especially along the high terrain. High temperatures will continue to be above normal levels with minor cooling noted in the area as readings rise to the 40s. Isolated, light showers are expected across eastern Nevada, primarily in Elko, Eureka, and White Pine counties, though amounts will be light at less than a half inch. Skies are expected to partially clear for the overnight through Saturday morning with colder temperatures expected. A few light, isolated showers are expected across central and east-central Nevada. Lows will be in the single digits and teens. Highs on Saturday will be in the 30s and 40s, which will be at or just below normal values for a change. Saturday night through Thursday, the weather is expected to go back to a more quiet pattern during this time frame with light winds. Afternoon highs will once again warm to above normal conditions by early next week with readings in the 40s and 50s. Overnight lows will be in the teens and 20s. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Forecast confidence diminishes to moderate regarding the system transiting the region Friday and Saturday. Snow shower activity is expected to remain light with respect to accumulations and no changes were made to the NBM regarding precipitation or snowfall forecasts for Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION... Look for VFR conditions continuing through the upcoming 24 hour period. Winds will switch to the north late Friday morning through the afternoon at all sites. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...99