752 FXUS66 KSEW 250953 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 253 AM PDT Sun Oct 25 2026 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal system will continue to bring widespread precipitation and breezy conditions to Western Washington today. Unsettled conditions are favored into next week. Light showers will linger early next week. Another system will arrive midweek, bringing widespread rain, mountain snow, and cooler temperatures to the region. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Rain continues to move across Western Washington early this morning as a low pressure system moves southward offshore. Latest radar imagery shows pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall moving across the region. The bulk of the precipitation will fall over the coast and the Olympic Peninsula with 1.00-1.50 inches. Other locations will see amounts ranging 0.10-0.20 inches east of I-5 and 0.25-0.50 inches west of I-5. Southerly winds are expected to become breezy along the coast, San Juan Islands, and the Olympic Peninsula this morning and ease late tonight. Latest high-res guidance suggests wind gusts up to 35 mph. High temperatures in the low to mid 50s today. Models have come to a better agreement on the projected path of the low. The center of the low will remain offshore today and move inland Monday morning near the Oregon/Washington border. This will result in light showers lingering into Monday. A weak shortwave will slide down from British Columbia on Tuesday for another chance of light precipitation. 29 && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... There is good agreement among models that a low pressure system will slide down from the British Columbia coast late Tuesday towards Western Washington, bringing another round of widespread precipitation through at least Thursday. Additionally, a colder air mass will accompany this system. Latest guidance suggests high temperatures will only peak into the upper 40s to low 50s and overnight temperatures will dip into the 30s, with upper 20s possible in the valleys by Thursday. Snow levels will also decrease below 3500 ft with this system, bringing light snow accumulations to the passes. Latest guidance suggests the passes may receive around 4 inches of snow, while the higher mountain peaks may see around 7 inches. Models start to struggle Saturday on the upper-level pattern. Some members have a weak ridge building behind the low pressure system, however the majority of members at this time favor an upper-level trough to remain over Western Washington. 29 && .AVIATION... Southwest flow aloft will become southerly later today then southeasterly overnight as an upper low offshore moves onshore over northwest Oregon. Ceilings will be a mixed bag across the region today as bands of precipitation associated with the system offshore spread into the region. MVFR ceilings will be mostly confined to the coastal areas with primarily VFR for interior terminals. Ceilings may briefly drop to MVFR thresholds for interior areas mainly south of KSEA this morning. KSEA...Mainly lower end VFR expected today with periods of light rain moving through the area into this afternoon. Precipitation should begin to decrease toward this evening. Surface winds E/NE 4 to 7 knots. 27 && .MARINE... A gradually weakening surface low will shift southward over the offshore waters today before moving onshore over the northern Oregon coast on Monday morning. Small craft advisories remain in effect for a combination of wind and seas over the coastal waters into this evening. Small craft advisories also remain in effect for easterlies in the strait. Winds and seas will be ease and subside tonight as the low offshore further weakens and moves ashore over Oregon. Another front will reach the waters on Wednesday. 27 && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for Grays Harbor Bar. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Gale Warning until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands. && $$

282 FXUS66 KPQR 251029 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 329 AM PDT Sun Oct 25 2026 .SYNOPSIS...A wetter and more active pattern is expected as a broad low moves into the region for the start of the week. A brief reprieve is expected on Tuesday, but by the middle of the week an active pattern is expected to return as multiple systems bring repeated rain chances with continued near-normal temperatures. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Saturday...A broad area of low pressure will slowly push eastward across the Pac NW for the start of the week. Rain and cooler temperatures are expected as a cold frontal boundary will spread southward along the coast early this morning, then push inland into the Willamette Valley by late this morning. Behind the initial rain band, scattered to numerous post-frontal showers this evening will linger into early Tuesday morning before trending drier. The break from rain showers may be brief as another shortwave tracks overhead late Tuesday, followed by yet another upper low from Wednesday through the remainder of the workweek. While rain is unlikely to persist through this entire period, these systems will bring repeated chances for rain at the end of what has been an unusually dry October in the Pacific Northwest. Ensemble mean 48-hour rainfall totals from 5 AM today through 5 AM Tuesday are 0.50-1.10 inches, with the reasonable high-end amounts of 1.50-2.25 inches also likely insufficient to support any flooding concerns. Temperatures through the period will remain near seasonal norms, namely afternoon highs in the low 50s to low 60s and overnight lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Increased cloud cover will help limit the threat of freeze or frost conditions until late next week when there is a chance of clearer overnight skies allowing for colder temperatures. Now, what people might want to know about is: Will this system bring any chance of snow to the Cascades? Well, snow levels are expected to fall towards 5000 ft as 850mb temperatures look to drop towards 1C to -1C through the start of this week. This will allow for light accumulations in the Cascades above pass level through Wednesday, with accumulations to lower elevations possible later in the week as 850 mb temperatures look to reach 0C to -2C by Friday. So, don`t be surprised if to look towards the peaks of Mount Hood, Mount Saint Helens and The Three Sisters and see some snow. With that in mind, now is the perfect time to check on any winter weather equipment and emergency supplies for your household and vehicles. /42-36 && .AVIATION...Through 12Z Monday...Generally VFR conditions with high clouds throughout the airspace. However, these conditions are expected to only last through around 13Z-15Z Sunday as radar and ground observations show a cold front slowly pushing inland this morning. This frontal system has already brought MVFR conditions along with rain to KAST and these conditions are expected to slowly develop for all other TAF locations. KONP should see these conditions by 11Z-13Z Sun, with inland terminals seeing them by 14Z-16Z Sun (from north to south). Through the TAF period, probabilistic guidance is suggesting a mixture of high-end VFR/low-end MVFR with a 10-20% chance of IFR conditions at any given time through the TAF period across the airspace. Expect southerly winds to develop before the frontal passage and persist through the TAF period. Gusts up to 25 kt are expected along the coast with gusts up to 20 kt for inland locations through 00Z Monday. Could see some LLWS near KPDX from 17Z-19Z Sunday as the frontal passage is expected around that time. Chances of MVFR conditions decrease toward the end of the TAF period for inland locations with predominately VFR conditions expected after 03Z Monday. Coastal locations will likely maintain predominately MVFR conditions after 03Z Monday and through the remainder of the TAF period. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Expect VFR conditions with high clouds until around 15Z Sunday as a frontal system is expected to start to impact the terminal around that time. As the frontal system arrives, expect rain and a 30-60% chance of intermittent MVFR conditions and 10-15% chance of IFR conditions at any given hour from 15Z Sunday through 03Z Monday. South/southeast winds will persist through the TAF period around 5-10 kt. Chances of MVFR conditions decrease toward the end of the TAF period with predominately VFR conditions expected after 03Z Monday. Could see some LLWS near KPDX from 17Z-19Z Sunday as the frontal passage is expected around that time. /42 && .MARINE...A slow-moving and steadily weakening area of low pressure will traverse waters through today. Expect southerly winds across all waters with gusts approaching 30 kt and seas building towards 9-12 ft. Current buoy observations at 46089 as of 0100 AM show seas around 10 ft with southerly gusts around 20-25 kt. Am expecting similar conditions to slowly spread across all waters, to include the Columbia River Bar through early this morning. Therefore am maintaining the current suite of Small Craft Advisories, with staggered onset times as hazardous conditions spread from northwest to southeast. Small Craft conditions are expected to persist across all waters through at least very early Monday morning, with winds and seas most likely starting to subside by Monday morning for our northern water zones. These sub Small Craft conditions are expected to spread from the northwest to southeast as well. Current guidance is showing a brief period of relatively calmer conditions through Tuesday. However, there is a 30% chance that another system approaching the waters mid-week that could yield in another round of Small Craft Advisory conditions. /42-36 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Monday for PZZ210-251-271. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Monday for PZZ252-272. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 5 PM PDT Monday for PZZ253-273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

872 FXUS66 KMFR 251145 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 445 AM PDT Sun Oct 25 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Mild weather continues for most areas today. * A cold front will bring coastal rainfall this afternoon, with rain moving inland through the evening and into Monday morning. Snow levels of 5000-6000 feet will keep light snowfall to area peaks and ridgelines. * Cool temperatures and precipitation chances continue through the week ahead, but with no indication of hazardous conditions. && .DISCUSSION...High clouds are moving over northern California and southern Oregon ahead of an approaching low pressure system. This system will flatten the weak ridge that was over the area, keeping forecast temperatures across the area similar today as they were on Saturday. A cold front attached to the low will bring rainfall to the coast this afternoon, then push inland. By Monday afternoon, activity should be mostly post-frontal showers so rainfall will be intermittent and light. In total, coastal cities and ranges are expected to see half an inch to over an inch of rainfall. The Umpqua and Illinois valleys are forecast to see about one-quarter on an inch of rainfall. Most other low-lying areas will see a few hundreths of an inch or stay dry. With snow levels around 5000 to 6000 feet on Monday morning, snow showers over the Cascades are expected. Expected amounts are unimpactful, with forecast amounts in the 2 to 3 inch range. Given lingering warmth on bare surfaces, road accumulation is not expected but areas of slushy wet snow may be possible. Looking past precipitation, this system looks fairly unimpactful. Southerly winds funnel into the Shasta Valley this afternoon, bringing gusty winds to much of the valley into tonight. Areas east of the Cascades will see gusty winds tonight into Monday night. These winds stay safely short of Advisory thresholds. The remnants of the low pressure system look to push eastward late Monday, but minor activity looks to keep an upper trough in place through the forecast period. This would keep temperatures at or below seasonal norms across the area. Broadly speaking, areas west of the Cascades will be in the high 50s to low 60s while areas to the east will be in the high 40s to low 50s. Overnight lows in western Siskiyou County could reach freezing temperatures on Monday night and remain there through the week. Colder overnight lows creep into the Rogue, Illinois, and Umpqua valleys through the week. To the east, overnight lows look to stay solidly in the teens to mid 20s. Medium- to long-term guidance keeps chances of precipitation in the forecast for west side areas, but there is some disagreement in timing and penetration of additional rainfall. Deterministic imagery shows a shortwave trough following the early week low and allowing another round of showers on Tuesday. Towards the end of the week, a cutoff low drops down from the north and brings coastal showers near the end of the week then moves inland to bring more widespread activity over next weekend. The motion of these features is intricate, and any difference in timing or movement could bring a very different outcome. However, there are no significant signals of hazardous conditions in current imagery and guidance. -TAD && .AVIATION...25/12Z TAFs...VFR levels persist early this morning under passing high clouds. Southerly winds will increase along the coast, with light rain and MVFR ceilings expected over North Bend and eventually over Roseburg. The front will push south and east this evening into early Monday morning with rain and chances for MVFR ceilings developing in other areas west of the Cascades, including at Medford. East side areas will generally stay at VFR levels, with isolated showers only possible towards the very end of the TAF period. -TAD && .MARINE...Updated 330 AM PDT Sunday, October 25, 2026...Seas have become below advisory levels early this morning. Southerly winds increase through the morning as a front passes over the area. A combination of winds and incoming swell will build steep seas into Tuesday morning. Conditions improve late Tuesday, but will remain somewhat unsettled through the week. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 5 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ350-370. && $$

131 FXUS66 KEKA 250706 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 1206 AM PDT Sun Oct 25 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Interior Valleys are expected to see a another chilly morning this morning with near freezing or freezing temperatures, while closer to the coast low clouds may limit the frost. * Light rain is expected Sunday evening through Monday, mainly in Humboldt and Del Norte counties. * Coastal flooding is possible Sunday, but more likely Monday through Wednesday at high tide, mainly around Humboldt Bay. && .SYNOPSIS...Dry weather will continue through today. Another chilly morning is expected this morning, as well. There is a chance for rain in Humboldt and Del Norte counties Sunday evening through Monday. A persistent upper level trough is expected Tuesday through Thursday bringing highs only in the 60s or cooler. Rain is possible with chances increasing late in the week in the north. && .DISCUSSION...Another chilly morning is anticipated for many of the valleys. A Frost Advisory remains in affect for Mendocino and much of Lake County. If the northern valleys of Mendocino County remain clear they may see freezing temperatures and this will need to be watched. The same will be true in Humboldt and Del Norte counties. Currently clouds look more likely in these areas, so frost advisories have not been issued for these locations. In Trinity County, an agricultural killing freeze has occurred. Thus, frost advisories and freeze warnings have been suspended this winter season for Trinity County. Today, high clouds are forecast to begin trekking into the area ahead of an upper level trough and associated frontal boundary. Rain is possible as early as late this afternoon in Del Norte County. However, this is more likely to start by this evening in Del Norte County and spread south overnight into Humboldt County. Total rainfall amounts in Del Norte County are expected to range from a half inch to an inch. Humboldt County may see close to a half inch near the Del Norte County line with less than a tenth of inch in southeastern Humboldt. Eventually, some showers may make it farther south and east, but only a trace to a few hundredths is expected. There is a small chance for some thunderstorms late tonight in Del Norte County, but confidence is low on this and models have been trending the upper level low farther making it less likely. Tuesday and Wednesday are generally expected to see dry weather, however it is a troughy pattern. This could bring a few showers, especially to the coastal counties. A mix of sun and clouds is likely in this pattern. This all is expected to keep temperatures in the 50s or 60s. Starting on Thursday most of the models are showing some rain, although the amounts vary on the clusters. The probability of over a half inch for any particular 24 hour period is less than 20 percent through late next week. Early November the models and the CPC forecast are starting to show the potential for a wetter pattern by November 3rd. MKK && .AVIATION...06Z...VFR conditions are anticipated very early this morning for coastal terminals. However, a thin layer of coastal stratus is trying to form along the coast potentially bringing MVFR ceilings for the coast before sunrise. Cloud cover will increase across Northwest California the rest of today. VFR conditions are anticipated for most interior terminals, but some interior valleys could experience low cloud development before sunrise. && .MARINE...Winds and waves are expected to continue to diminish early this morning. Today, winds are expected to become more southerly in the northern waters and gradually more westerly in the southern waters as a low pressure system passes by to the north. A few models show stronger winds in the northern waters and this will need to be watched as it gets closer. Southerly winds of 10 to 15 kts are expected in the northern waters late Sunday before turning northwest to north again early next week. These are expected to increase by Tuesday. These look to be slow to increase only reaching 20 kt in the southern waters by Tuesday night. These are expected to continue to increase on Wednesday before diminishing again late in the week. Winds are expected to be mainly wind driven but combining with a small northwest swell around 5 to 7 feet. MKK && .COASTAL FLOODING...High astronomical tides associated with the full moon will bring chances for coastal flooding around Humboldt Bay starting as early as Sunday with chances continuing through next week. Astronomical tides at the North Spit tide gauge reaches 7.49 ft MLLW on 11:26 AM Sunday. As the northerly winds have diminish the current tidal anomaly has increased to 1.1 feet for todays high tide. The northerly winds are expected to continue to diminish tonight and Sunday. If the anomaly increases to just 1.3 feet minor flooding may occur. Monday the astronomical tide increases to around 7.8 feet. The anomaly is expected to increase as well and this could easily bring water levels to around 9.0 feet. Tuesday the winds start to turn back to the north. This may start to diminish the anomaly or keep it steady. This will be the highest astronomical tides, and highest chances for coastal flooding, are forecast to be on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week at 8.04 ft and 8.06 ft, respectively. This will likely bring at least minor coastal flooding and possibly moderate coastal flooding. This will mainly be around Humbodlt Bay with little expected outside the bay unless there are large waves. MKK3 && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Frost Advisory until 10 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ109>114-118- 120. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

440 FXUS66 KMTR 251147 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 447 AM PDT Sun Oct 25 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1207 AM PDT Sun Oct 25 2026 - Seasonably warm conditions today - Cool conditions through the next week - Rain chances late week into the upcoming weekend - Minor coastal flooding at high tide for Bayshore locations through the week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1207 AM PDT Sun Oct 25 2026 (Today and tonight) Satellite imagery reveals mostly clear skies across the region save for a patch of stratus that has developed near Bodega Bay and Dillon Beach and a little bit eastward through the Petaluma Gap. Skies should remain mostly clear through the next day, barring any radiational stratus and fog that develops within the North Bay early in the morning, which should dissipate after sunrise. A warm period continues across the region as a shortwave ridge sandwiched between a departing low moving into the Desert Southwest and an developing one off the coast of British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest. Highs remain seasonably warm with highs in the lower to middle 70s expected across the inland valleys, highs in the upper 70s across the warmest spots of the southern Salinas Valley and the Morgan Hill-Gilroy area, the upper 60s to lower 70s close to the Bays, and the upper 50s to middle 60s along the Pacific coast. A gentle onshore breeze should develop in the afternoon, with gusts to 20 mph possible within the Salinas Valley. A combination of high astronomical tides and surge from thermal expansion effects brings the risk of minor coastal flooding across Bayshore locations within the San Pablo Bay, San Francisco Bay, and Monterey Bay at high tide today. At the San Francisco tidal gauge, high tide is expected to be 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 11:07 AM Sunday 10/25, including around 1.0 ft of surge residual partially attributed to impacts from El Nino. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1207 AM PDT Sun Oct 25 2026 (Monday through Saturday) Large-scale troughing persists across the Western US as a low moves across the Pacific Northwest, and by the middle of the week, a second developing low over British Columbia will interact with a decaying low moving in from the central Pacific to reinforce the troughing. Some light sprinkles are possible in the northern coastal waters and the adjacent areas of the North Bay on Monday morning as the low passes by, but most of the impacts will be felt along the North Coast and across Oregon. Otherwise, highs will start to dip for the work week, with highs in the inland valleys dropping to the middle to upper 60s by Monday and the lower to middle 60s for the second half of the week. The end of the week into the upcoming weekend is where things get interesting in terms of the forecast, for it is where the model outputs start to diverge and the resulting uncertainty ratchets upward. Comparing mean outputs from two of the global ensemble models reveals a remarkably different solution across the Western United States. The European ECMWF ensemble model mean suggests that the trough will continue handing on through the upcoming weekend while the American GEFS ensemble model mean depicts a slight ridge coming in and breaking up the trough`s influence by next Sunday, the first day of November. Ensemble model cluster analysis for Day 7 (Saturday) reinforces this split between a more trough-influenced solution from the European ensemble members, and a more ridge- influenced solution from the American ensemble members, with the members of the Canadian GEPS ensemble model split between the two with a slight lean towards the American ensemble solution. As a side note, this whole discussion may illuminate why model output around and beyond 200 hours is generally considered unreliable by those. The current forecast shows rain chances coming in Friday into the upcoming weekend, but with the split between the models that`s pretty much all that can be said with even a moderate degree of confidence. We will keep a close eye on the forecast, not least because it could determine whether people need to consider ponchos or umbrellas as part of their Halloween plans. Coastal flooding concerns continue across Bayshore locations within the San Pablo, San Francisco, and Monterey Bays through the next week, and will expand into the Pacific coastal regions by Monday through Friday. At the San Francisco tidal gauge, high tide is expected to be 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 11:39 AM Monday 10/26, 1.8 ft above normal (7.6 ft MLLW) at 12:15 PM Tuesday 10/27, 1.9 ft above normal (7.7 ft MLLW) at 12:56 PM Wednesday 10/28, 1.7 ft above normal (7.5 ft MLLW) at 01:43 PM Thursday 10/29, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 2:39 PM on Friday 10/30, and 1.0 feet above normal (6.8 ft MLLW) at 3:44 PM on Saturday 10/31, including around 1.0 ft of surge residual partially attributed to impacts from El Nino. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 447 AM PDT Sun Oct 25 2026 Widespread VFR conditions prevail through the TAF cycle. Light offshore winds lingered overnight which reduced the chances for fog development in the North Bay interior valleys. By late morning, onshore winds increase with high clouds dominating the skies. As the mid to upper-level low pressure approaches the Pacific Northwest Sunday evening, the marine layer will gradually reform itself. Low confidence on its exact impacts and how much it will deepen. If ceilings develop, they are likely to remain MVFR and develop after the current TAF package. Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Light and variable winds become west- northwest around 10 kt through the afternoon and gradually ease post- sunset. A deepening marine layer Sunday night may result in a few to scattered low cloud decks, though not currently expecting any impacts to flight categories within the TAF period. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR with gentle to moderate south to southeast breezes through sunrise. Onshore winds prevail through the afternoon. Low cloud decks begin to develop around sunset with stratus impacts likely around sunrise, though low confidence on the exact timing. && .MARINE... (Today through Friday) Issued at 250 AM PDT Sun Oct 25 2026 Gentle north to northwest breezes gradually become moderate to fresh early next week. Strong gusts increase across the southern coastal waters near Point Sur and Monterey Bay by Monday afternoon. Wind driven moderate (4 to 8 ft) seas persist into much of next week while remaining slight (2 to 3 ft) at the immediate coastline. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506- 508-529-530. Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM Monday to 3 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ505-509. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Monday for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Monday to 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...DialH LONG TERM....DialH AVIATION...Navarrete MARINE...Navarrete Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

692 FXUS66 KOTX 251112 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 412 AM PDT Sun Oct 25 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Active weather pattern with chances for precipitation increasing on Monday and chances continuing throughout the work week. - Snow levels lowering to between 3,000 and 4,500 feet with snow in the mountains by Tuesday night and continuing through Thursday. Winter travel over mountain passes in the Cascades to Sherman Pass in north-central WA will be possible. && .SYNOPSIS... The weather pattern turns more active next week with a pair of low pressure systems impacting the region. The first weather system moves across Sunday night through Monday night and is expected to bring light precipitation, especially across southeast WA and into the ID Panhandle. A second, colder weather system for Tuesday night through Thursday night will drop snow levels to as low as 3000 feet. Rain in the valleys and light snow in the mountains is expected with the potential for travel impacts over mountain passes. && .DISCUSSION... Sunday through Tuesday: There is good model agreement that a vertically stacked low will move to just off the Washington coast on Sunday before weakening and moving inland along the WA/OR border on Monday. As it moves in increased mid level moisture and lift will result in a band of showers moving across the Inland NW with snow levels around 5000 to 6000 feet. With the weakening nature of the low and quick movement through the area precipitation amounts are expected to be light, mainly a tenth of an inch or less. Exception is around the Blue Mountains into the Central Panhandle Mountains where stronger lift as well as surface based instability with CAPE of 200-400 J/KG has the potential to produce locally heavier downpours with rain amounts of a quarter inch. A few thunderstorms can not be ruled out but confidence remains too low to include in the forecast. Wednesday through Saturday: An upper ridge amplifies along 150W in the Eastern Pacific forcing a trough to settle into the region, with a stronger closed low dropping south along the WA coast on Wednesday and remaining in place Thursday. There is good ensemble agreement leading to high confidence of a cooler and showery pattern as snow levels fall by Thursday to 3000-4500 feet. This will allow for snow in the mountains including the passes, especially in the Cascades and Okanogan Highlands given closer proximity to the low. By 5 PM Thursday, the NBM chances for 2 inches or more of snow is 90 percent for Sherman Pass, 80% chance Stevens Pass, 70% Washington Pass, and 35% Lookout Pass. The forecast gets more uncertainty after that with some models keeping the low over the region while others begins to show it moving out. Regardless temperatures will be trending cooler for this part of the forecast with high temperatures dropping into the 40s to low 50s, and lows dropping into the mid 20s to mid 30s. With overnight lows near freezing in the valleys some snow may mix in at times but accumulations are expected to remain in the mountains. JW && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected across the region through the 24-hour period. Low pressure will approach the Washington coast today resulting in primarily northeast and easterly winds over the region. The weather system will also spread an abundance of mid and high level clouds across the region. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions at all TAF sites. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 59 37 52 38 51 38 / 0 0 60 50 40 30 Coeur d`Alene 59 36 53 38 48 37 / 0 0 50 70 70 60 Pullman 60 36 51 36 50 35 / 0 0 70 70 50 20 Lewiston 64 40 55 42 56 38 / 0 0 80 70 30 20 Colville 59 26 56 33 51 30 / 0 0 40 50 30 50 Sandpoint 54 32 52 36 44 35 / 0 0 30 70 90 90 Kellogg 57 35 53 36 43 35 / 0 0 40 90 90 80 Moses Lake 61 36 55 34 59 33 / 0 20 30 10 0 0 Wenatchee 55 40 55 40 57 38 / 10 30 60 10 0 10 Omak 59 36 56 37 56 33 / 10 10 60 50 10 10 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

821 FXUS66 KPDT 251134 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 434 AM PDT Sun Oct 25 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions continue through the overnight hours with isolated freezing temperatures in the lower elevation areas. - Pattern shifts through the week with periods of shower activity across the region. - Cooler pattern develops through the week (50-70% chance) with high temperatures dropping down the low 50s in the lower elevated areas (50-70% chance). && .DISCUSSION... Satellite advertises a low pressure system off the coast of the PacNW, bringing moderate to heavy showers west of the Cascades. Spillover is currently bringing some light returns on radar in the Cascades and we will see the line of showers continue to move east over the next 24 to 48 hours. Guidance is in good agreement the low pressure system to continue pushing to the east, bringing PoP`s up to 20-40% across the Cascades and eastern slopes of the Cascades (including Central Oregon) through today. As the system moves along, it will bring the greatest chance of precip in the short term for the entire region (20-50% PoPs) Monday. NBM advertises the heaviest rains along the Eastern Mountains and parts of the Northern Blues where it`s advertising wetting rains (>.1") through Tuesday morning (70-80% chance). Synoptic ensembles paint a story that shows another shortwave dropping down from British Colombia through the mid-week that will bring another round of wet precipitation. Guidance is somewhat evenly split with impacts with the agreement on strength and location of the trough. Clusters through Thursday night advertise 48% of members showing a stronger/wetter pattern that mostly consist of the Euro and Canadian models, while the GFS solutions brings a drier solution to the table. Guidance becomes even more split by Saturday night with almost exactly 50% of members showing either an open wave/dry set-up or a more closed-off low with a wetter solution. Still plenty of time to monitor the set-up, but for now not seeing any immediate impacts to the area at this time. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... VFR conditions currently prevail through the period. Precip develops with PROB30`s for RDM/BDN/YKM/DLS over the next 24-hours. Small chances persist (5-15%) for each site to temporary drop down to MVFR with some of the heavier showers bringing less than 3000 foot overcast skies at times. Breezy winds develop in RDM and BDN in the late morning hours through the afternoon, but guidance keeps most wind gusts less than 30 knots overall. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 61 32 55 37 / 0 10 30 30 ALW 62 38 55 42 / 0 0 40 50 PSC 58 36 58 39 / 0 10 30 0 YKM 57 37 58 35 / 10 20 20 0 HRI 59 34 58 40 / 0 20 20 10 ELN 53 31 54 31 / 10 30 50 10 RDM 64 30 50 32 / 0 40 60 20 LGD 61 37 54 36 / 0 0 80 70 GCD 64 34 53 34 / 0 0 70 30 DLS 59 40 59 42 / 10 30 50 20 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...95 AVIATION...95

032 FXUS65 KREV 250746 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1246 AM PDT Sun Oct 25 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Mostly dry and cool conditions will prevail through Wednesday, with temperatures warming to near seasonal averages this afternoon. * Strong southwest winds are expected Monday, with light rain and mountain snow chances for northeast California. * Increasing chances for unsettled weather and cooler temperatures return late week. && .DISCUSSION... As of this morning, a dry and cool airmass remains entrenched across the Sierra and western Nevada. Today, we`ll see temperatures peak as a ridge of high pressure builds eastward across the region. High temps today will reach the upper 50s to mid-60s in the Sierra and mid-60s to low 70s in western Nevada valleys. Southwest winds will remain light through this evening. The main weather impact for Monday will be increasing winds associated with the approaching low pressure system. Sierra ridgetop winds are forecast to increase this evening into Monday, with peak gusts of 70-80+ mph. Surface gusts across the Sierra and western Nevada valleys will generally reach 30-45 mph. These winds could create outdoor recreation impacts and hazardous boating conditions on larger lakes. Precipitation chances on Monday are around 30-40% for far northeast California, the Surprise Valley and far north Washoe near the Oregon border. Otherwise, we`ll be dry for the vast majority of the region on Monday. By Tuesday, the low pressure system will have moved eastward, leading to clearing skies and a return to dry conditions. Temperatures will be slightly cooler than Monday but still near seasonal averages, with highs in the mid-50s to mid-60s across the region. Winds will also begin to diminish significantly. Forecast confidence decreases slightly towards the end of the week as another upper-level trough is expected to deepen across the western U.S. by Friday and Saturday. There are some model variations on the exact handling of shortwaves and the depth/position of this trough, but the overall pattern suggests increasing chances for unsettled weather. Temperatures are expected to cool to the 40s and 50s for highs, with lows in the 20s and 30s. -Justin && .AVIATION... VFR conditions, light winds, and seasonable temperatures continue though Sunday. Then, an incoming low pressure system will likely bring mountain wave turbulence and LLWS Sunday night into Monday with terminal gusts of 25-35 kt Monday afternoon. -Justin && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$

778 FXUS66 KSTO 241846 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1146 AM PDT Sat Oct 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather continues through most of next week, chance for light showers over the Shasta County mountains on Monday - Breezy to gusty onshore winds on Monday, strongest in the mountains - Potential for unsettled weather Halloween Weekend, but details remain uncertain .DISCUSSION... ...Today through Monday... Mostly clear skies today, following the rain and cloudy weather we experienced the last couple of days. Winds will steadily decrease today, with downsloping northeast to east winds lingering in the mountains through this evening, up to 15 to 25 mph at times. Given the timing of the winds, cooler temperatures, and the recent rainfall, no widespread fire weather concerns are anticipated at this time. However, as northerly winds decrease, there is a 5 to 20% chance of fog development in the Valley overnight tonight; highest chances in the northern San Joaquin Valley. Ridging will keep the high temperatures in the high 60s to low 70s through Monday, with a slight downward trend beginning Monday as a weather system passes through the area. This system will also bring low chances for light precipitation in Shasta County, particularly over the Coast Range and southern Cascades, as well as breezy onshore southerly winds. Strongest winds expected over the Sierra and southern Cascades, generally 20 to 30 mph, but up to 40 mph over peaks. Otherwise dry weather is expected across the remainder of interior NorCal. ...Tuesday and Beyond... Dry weather continues through the majority of the work week, but potential remains for unsettled weather at the end of October and into early November. Ensemble guidance seems clear now that a low pressure system will approach the area, but details about precipitation amounts and impacts remain fairly uncertain this far out. Regardless, this week will be an ideal time to clear gutters and secure loose outdoor decorations and items in preparation for any additional precipitation and gusty winds. && .AVIATION... Predominantly VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. North to east winds decrease today, becoming less than 12 kts by 00Z Sunday. Potential for isolated FG/BR in the Valley from 11Z-16Z Sunday. Increasing mid to high level clouds ahead of a weak system tonight into Sunday. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

385 FXUS65 KMSO 251009 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 409 AM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Another nice fall day before a return to unsettled weather A weak ridge of high pressure will continue to be over the Northern Rockies today allowing for seasonal temperatures and dry conditions. A low pressure system will begin to push in to the Pacific Northwest on Monday. Precipitation associated with this low will begin to push into north central Idaho by Monday afternoon and then across the remainder of the region during the overnight hours. A secondary disturbance will dig along the coast by mid week, establishing a deep trough over the western United States. Another significant low appears to move into the Pacific Northwest, but the models diverge on the track of this low and its impacts on the Northern Rockies. The region should be prepared for temperatures running around 5 degrees below seasonal averages this coming week with periods of precipitation. Snow levels will be hovering around 4000-5000 feet throughout the week, especially during the overnight hours allowing accumulating snow in the higher terrain. && .AVIATION...A weak ridge of high pressure will remain over the region today. Clear skies last night has allowed for the development of patchy fog with KMSO having the biggest impact this morning. The fog will be diminish by late morning. High level clouds will be moving into the region as a low pressure system begins to move towards the region. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

812 FXUS65 KBOI 251054 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 454 AM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry with gradually warming temps through Monday morning. Frost and/or freezing temps in agricultural valleys this morning. - Light rain and mountain snow Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. - Cooler and unsettled again Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Tuesday Night/... Issued 1230 AM MDT SUN OCT 25 2026 Another chilly morning is in store today with minimum temperatures of 15-25 degrees in E-Oregon and higher SW-Idaho basins, and then mid-20s to mid-30s elsewhere. Southwesterly flow aloft today will bring increasing high clouds and warmer temperatures; with high temps climbing to around 5 degrees above normal (generally mid 60s in lower elevations and mid 50s in mountain valleys). Come Monday into Tuesday a closed upper level low will move inland across the Northern Rockies. Ahead of this system, breezy west- southwest winds will set in Monday afternoon, with gusts to 20-30 mph, strongest south and west of the Snake River Plain. These winds will transition to be west-northwest following a west to east moving cold front Monday afternoon into Monday night. While this system is not as wet as the previous one, showers will increase Monday afternoon into Monday night, especially over the Central Idaho Mountains. Over the course of Monday and Tuesday, precipitation amounts of 0.15-0.35 inches are forecast for the Central Idaho Mountains, with elsewhere remaining under 0.15 inches. While surface temperatures will be cool (highs across lower elevations a few degrees cooler than Monday, and higher terrain 5-10 degrees cooler), cooling aloft will support weak instability across higher terrain; this instability will lead to a slight chance of thunderstorms over terrain come Monday afternoon. Lowering snow levels will allow for a dusting to a few inches of snow for elevations above 6kft MSL. Isolated to scattered showers will continue across higher terrain north through Tuesday. Following the cold frontal passage, high temperatures on Tuesday will be back near normal if not a few degrees below, with breezy conditions tapering off. && .LONG TERM /Wednesday through Sunday/... Issued 1230 AM MDT SUN OCT 25 2026 The seasonably cool and unsettled pattern will continue through the long-term period. With zonal flow aloft offering multiple opportunity for shortwave passages. The next notable system will approach the area late this week, although uncertainty remains on exact location, magnitude, and timing. Precipitation chances will increase Late Thursday into Friday to 20-60% (highest north and east of the Snake River Plain) as the low digs down into the northwest (which there is good ensemble agreement on). The question becomes whether or not the low aloft rejoins the main flow or breaks off to the south. The former of the two would keep showers over our area through Sunday, with the later offering a brief period of drying come late Saturday before bringing more widespread precipitation Sunday. With that uncertainty, elevated precipitation chances will be carried through Sunday. && .AVIATION /12Z Sunday through Monday/... Issued 454 AM MDT SUN OCT 25 2026 VFR under increasing high clouds. Patchy fog in sheltered mtn valleys this morning. Surface winds: E to SE 5-15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt this afternoon near KBKE and KBOI-KMUO. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: S to SW 5-20 kt. KBOI...VFR under increasing high clouds. Surface winds: SE 5-12 kt with occasional gusts to 15-20 kt after 17z. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....NF SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM....NF

837 FXUS65 KLKN 250813 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 113 AM PDT Sun Oct 25 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Fair and cool weather in place for today * Slight chance of valley rain and mountain snow across Northern Nevada Monday and Monday night * Fair yet cool weather returns thru mid week && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Sunday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Weather will be fair yet cool across the forecast area today and tonight with high level clouds increasing from the west. Daytime high temperatures will be in the low 50s to low 60s with overnight lows in the low 20s to low 30s. A modest Pacific low pressure system moving into the PacNW early Monday morning will drag a weak cold front thru Northern Nevada from the west-northwest during the day Monday. This will produce isolated light valley rain showers and mountain show showers across much of northern Nevada, though the best chance for any activity will be north of the I-80 corridor. Significant accumulation is not expected under any showers with a tenth of an inch or less forecast. West-southwesterly winds will also become breezy Monday with widespread gusts 30 to 35 mph. Winds shift west-northwesterly Monday night while concurrently easing. Generally zonal flow will be present over Nevada beginning Tuesday, eventually shifting to southwesterly by Thursday as a deep upper level trof takes shape off the coast of the western U.S. Weather thru mid week will be generally fair yet cool, residing near to a few degrees cooler than seasonal. Light winds on Tuesday will gradually increase each day thru Thursday in response to the deepening upper level trof offshore. By the Thursday night/Friday time frame, numerical model solutions depict the beginning of a period of unsettled weather, including increasing probabilities of precipitation thru the weekend as well as breezes. Model solutions depict the upper level trof progressing thru Nevada from the west Sunday/Sunday night. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Moderate forecast confidence in the possibility of valley rain and mountain snow across Northern Nevada Monday thru Monday night. Low forecast confidence pertaining to active weather at the end of the week and next weekend. Utilized various model blends for PoP and weather fields. && .AVIATION...Still maintaining some concern for VCFG at KBAM, KEKO, and KELY early this morning, thru approximately 16Z. Though decreasing confidence has led to the omission of VCFG from the TAFs. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals thru tonight under increasing high level clouds from the west. && .FIRE WEATHER...Dry and fair weather under a modest warming trend continues thru today and into Monday. Light valley rain and mountain snow showers are expected across portions of northern Nevada on Monday and Monday night as a modest cold front moves thru the PacNW and northern Nevada. The best opportunity for any shower activity will be north of the I-80 corridor. Though any precipitaton that falls looks to remain less than 0.10 inches and wetting rains are not expected. Also anticipating west-southwesterly breezes along the cold front with gusts 30 to 35 mph. Winds then shift west-northwesterly Monday night while concurrently easing. Fair weather returns thru mid week with winds gradually increasing each day Tuesday thru Thursday as a robust upper level trof deepens offshore of the west coast. Unsettled weather, including increasing probabilities of precipitation thru the weekend as well as breezes, returns in the Thursday night/Friday time frame. Model solutions depict the upper level trof progressing thru Nevada from the west Sunday/Sunday night. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...92 AVIATION...92 FIRE WEATHER...92