270 FXUS66 KSEW 020303 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 803 PM PDT Sat Nov 1 2025 .UPDATE... As showers continue to move inland this evening, area rivers continue to see elevated flows. Most rivers have begun to crest this evening, including the Skokomish and Snoqualmie Rivers, and will slowly lower tonight. The Skagit River remains in action stage and continues to rise, and the river may briefly reach minor flood stage later tonight. While more showers are on track to move inland overnight, a few lightning strikes cannot be ruled out, mainly along the coast. No updates to the forecast this evening, but any potential flooding will be assessed and closely monitored. && .SYNOPSIS... Showers will continue tonight and Sunday mainly impacting the Cascades. A stronger system will bring more wet weather and gusty winds Tuesday night and Wednesday. Additional systems Friday and over the weekend will keep the weather pattern active. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... We`re in post frontal onshore flow now after a wet 24 hours across western WA. With this AR, we saw around 2-4" rainfall ranges in the mountains with 1-2" across most lowland areas. As a result, rivers saw sharp rises with minor flooding on the Skokomish River. Winds are still breezy out there with highest winds through the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Showers will mainly impact the Cascades and withing the convergence zone (presently over King/Snohomish but shifting northward tonight). Showers will linger into Sunday under strong onshore flow, mostly impacting the Cascades. Snow levels will hover around 35000-4000` with a few inches on the higher peaks and passes (like Stevens Pass). There is weak high pressure over the area on Monday with some light moisture spreading north during the day. Overall, rainfall amounts look light and mainly clipping the southern portion of the CWA. 33 && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A stronger Pacific storm system will reach the area late Tuesday into Wednesday for another round of wet and windy weather. Highest winds will be along the coast and Strait of Juan de Fuca with a 50% chance of seeing S/SE gusts to 45 MPH. Additional rainfall will keep the rivers running high but additional flooding is not anticipated. Systems following next Friday and over the weekend will keep the weather active with more rain and strong wind potential. 33 && .AVIATION... West to southwesterly flow aloft continues to weaken becoming predominantly westerly overnight and staying that way into Sunday before turning southwesterly again Sunday night. Surface winds mostly south to southwesterly although speeds vary with most terminals seeing speeds of 5-10 kts while SEA and PWT are hanging on to speeds of 10-15 kts. Widespread VFR conditions except for some locations along the coast and within the Puget Sound Convergence Zone over portions of Snohomish county...including PAE. Cigs will lower overnight with plenty of low-level moisture in play. Locations more prone to MVFR to IFR conditions will see these conditions emerge overnight such as OLM, HQM, PWT...PAE will likely be included in this group given the current PSCZ. Locations that do see these MVFR/IFR conditions should see clouds burn off in the mid to late afternoon with widespread VFR conditions returning. KSEA...VFR cigs currently with convergence zone activity remaining north of the terminal. Winds have eased from their afternoon peak, but still seeing speeds 10-15 kts. Should see them continue to slow, with speeds 5-10 kts after 06Z. Cigs will lower to low-end VFR along with a 35% chance of MVFR developing into early Sunday morning. If manifest, VFR will pick back up by Sunday afternoon. 18/McMillian && .MARINE... With the frontal system exiting the area, winds over the area waters continue to ease. Gales remain in the Central and Eastern Strait although trends in latest observations show speeds slowly creeping down. This headline will likely be allowed to expire. SCA remains in effect for the coastal waters due to seas exceeding 10 ft. Winds will transition more east on Monday with another weak system expected late Monday into Tuesday. A stronger frontal system will then move into the waters late Tuesday into Wednesday for the return of Small Craft Advisory winds and potential gales for the coast, as well as portions of the interior waters. An active pattern lies ahead for the upcoming week. Seas 15 to 20 feet tonight, before subsiding to 10 to 15 feet on Sunday. Seas will further subside to near 10 feet on Monday before building late Tuesday into Wednesday towards 15 to 20 feet again. McMillian/18 && .HYDROLOGY... The bulk of the rain has moved out of the area this evening, with a lingering convergence zone over King/Snohomish counties. Snow levels tonight will drop into the 4000 to 4500 foot range into Sunday morning. A Flood Warning remains for the Skokomish River through this evening as levels hit minor flood stage. A Flood Watch continues for King, Snohomish, and Skagit counties this evening, with most rivers in these areas cresting this evening but some rivers including the Skagit River still rising. The flood threat has largely ended with most rivers remaining just below or cresting in action stage. Precipitation looks to lull out Monday and into Tuesday, before another system midweek and through the end of the week could bring additional rises on area rivers as more rain comes this way. Mazurkiewicz/15 && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Flood Watch until 4 AM PDT Sunday for Cascades of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Cascades of Southern King County-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties-City of Seattle-Downtown Everett / Marysville Area-Eastside- Foothills and Valleys of Central King County-Foothills and Valleys of Pierce and Southern King Counties- Foothills and Valleys of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of the North Cascades- Lowlands of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish Counties- Shoreline / Lynnwood / South Everett Area. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PDT Sunday for Grays Harbor Bar. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PDT Sunday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Gale Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. && $$

485 FXUS66 KPQR 020136 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 636 PM PDT Sat Nov 1 2025 ...Updated public and beach hazards discussions, and the watches, warnings, and advisories section... .SYNOPSIS...The cold front continues to move southeast through the region this afternoon, bringing areas of rain and breezy conditions. The front is now situated roughly across the middle portion of the forecast area and will continue to shift inland and past the Cascades through the evening. Winds are gradually weakening behind the front, though occasional gusts up to 20 mph will persist across inland valleys, with stronger gusts of 25 to 35 mph through the Columbia River Gorge and 20 to 30 mph mph in the Cascades. Conditions will trend drier into Sunday as ridging builds overhead. Active weather is expected to return late Tuesday through Thursday. && ...EVENING UPDATE...The Flood Warning for the Grays River near Rosburg has been cancelled. The Grays River has crested and fallen below minor flood stage. -10 && .DISCUSSION...Now through Friday...Rain continues to taper off this afternoon as the cold front slowly progresses southeast through the region. The front is no longer stalled as the associated surface low has lifted northeast toward Vancouver Island, allowing a gradual eastward push of the boundary. Over the past 24 hours, from Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon, rainfall totals have ranged from 1.0 to 1.75 inches north of McMinnville, 0.50 to 1.00 inches between McMinnville and Albany, and less than 0.50 inches south of Albany. As for the coast, 24 hour rainfall totals range from 1.5 to 3.0 inches, with the highest amounts likely in elevated areas. Additional rainfall through early Sunday morning is expected to bring another 0.10 to 0.25 inches at the Coast, Coast Range, and Willamette Valley, and 0.50 to 1.25 inches across the Cascades and Cascade Foothills. Winds continue to ease this evening with the fronts departure. Expect occasional gusts up to 20 mph inland, while the Columbia River Gorge may still see 25 to 35 mph, and the Cascades around 20 to 30 mph through tonight. Sunday will be mostly dry as shortwave ridging builds overhead, bringing a temporary break from the recent active pattern. However, this dry period will be brief as a shortwave trough bringing moisture into the region as early as Monday afternoon. Model ensemble guidance continues to show strong agreement through midweek, depicting a broad upper trough developing over the Pacific Northwest by Wednesday. This feature, often classified as an atmospheric river, is expected to last 48-60 hours, delivering two distinct surges of moisture - one late Tuesday night into Wednesday and another early Thursday. Each period will see moderate IVT values around 500-750 kg/ms lasting less than 24 hours, separated by a 6 to 12 hour period of weak atmospheric river IVT values (less than 500 kg/ms). In short, 48-60 hours of rainfall, with 2 periods of potential heavy rain and a 6 to 12 hour period of relief from heavy rain in between. Given the prevailing southerly to southwesterly flow during this system, orographic enhancement will be modest, keeping rainfall rates limited. While no flooding concerns are currently anticipated for rivers or urban areas, there is still low to moderate confidence on forecasted rainfall rates, so continue to monitor these discussion updates. This system also brings the potential for elevated winds, with current guidance suggesting a 40-60% chance of wind gusts exceeding 35 mph on Wednesday and Thursday for the inland areas. Additionally, for notably impactful wind gusts around 45 mph for inland areas, guidance suggests a 10-20% chance for Wednesday and Thursday. Friday, there is moderate agreement between ensemble clusters that the overall pattern will turn zonal. Beyond Friday, there is little agreement between clusters regarding pattern, strength, or timing. ~12 && .AVIATION...The cold front that brought widespread rain to NW Oregon and SW Washington has moved over the Cascades as of 22z Sat with scattered showers continuing behind the front through 12-15z Sun. Conditions behind the front have improved to VFR except for some coastal locations near and south of KONP that will have lingering MVFR/IFR/LIFR cigs and visbys through 23z Sat to 00z Sun. Winds have also decreased rapidly with most locations expected to have west to southwest winds less than 10 kts through the rest of the TAF period. The only exception is breezy winds continue over the Cascades through 06z Sun as the front continues to move over them. There`s a 40-60% chance of MVFR/IFR ceilings and visbys due to low stratus forming in the Willamette Valley between 12-16z Sun. Conditions are forecast to drop first in the central and southern Willamette Valley, followed by the northern Willamette Valley and SW Washington I-5 corridor later in this time period. Conditions are expected to improve to VFR by 18-21z Sun. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Predominately VFR conditions expected. Scattered showers continue through 12z Sun. West winds less than 10 kts becoming southerly after 06z Sun. There`s a 40-60% chance of MVFR/IFR cigs and visbys after 13-15z Sun, improving to VFR by 18-21z Sun. -03 && .MARINE...Winds have decreased significantly Saturday afternoon behind the cold front. West to northwest winds are expected to remain below 15 kts. A long period westerly swell 17-19 feet at 15-17 seconds moved into the waters this morning, supporting hazardous seas conditions. The swell will slowly ease this afternoon back to the low teens by this evening. A Hazardous Seas Warnings remains in effect through 8 PM PDT this evening across all coastal waters. While brief high pressure passes overhead Sunday into Monday, winds will become more variable by midday Sunday before turning north to northeast as a thermal trough forms over the coast, which could cause a brief period of increased winds late Sunday. Seas are expected to remain around 10-12 ft at 13-14 seconds through much of the period. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for 8 PM PDT this evening through 4 PM PST Monday. The middle of next week will see the return of an active pattern as a couple of frontal systems could cause strong Gales or even Storm force winds along with increased seas. Looking at 24 hour probabilities, there`s over 90% chance of Gales (gusts > 34 kts) in the far outer waters on Tuesday then spreading over all of the coastal waters for Wednesday and Thursday. The probability for Storm Force gusts (> 55 mph) is around 25-50% chance each day Tuesday through Thursday. Looking at 3 hour probabilities, we see two waves of elevated winds with a 40-60% chance of Gales Tuesday evening into early Wednesday and again on Thursday, with these probabilities staying elevated along the inner waters in between. For Storm force gusts, the probability is around 10% for each wave. Seas are also expected to increase, with mainly wind driven seas pushing into the mid to upper teens by Wednesday. There is still plenty of uncertainty in exact details but the active pattern is expected to persist. -03 && .BEACH HAZARDS...A westerly swell of 11-14 ft at 14-15 seconds will bring a high threat of sneaker waves through Monday along the North and Central Oregon Coast, and the South Washington Coast. Caution should be used when in or near the water. Always keep an eye on the waves, and be especially watchful of children and pets. Those participating in razor clam digs should exercise caution. -10 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Hazardous Seas Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for PZZ210- 251>253-271>273. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PDT Monday for PZZ210-251>253- 271>273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

020 FXUS66 KMFR 020312 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 812 PM PDT Sat Nov 1 2025 .UPDATE...Updated Marine Discussion. && .MARINE...Updated 800 PM PDT Saturday, November 1, 2025...Steep seas will persist through at least Monday. Seas will be dominated by west- northwest swell. However, wind seas will mix with swell on Sunday afternoon and Sunday night as gusty northerly winds develop. A strong front approaches late Tuesday, then moves across the area Tuesday night and Wednesday. This is followed by another strong front on Thursday. These fronts will bring the potential for gales. Additionally, expect building west swell late Wednesday and Thursday which combined with wind seas may result in dangerous and chaotic high to very high seas. This may result in hazardous seas and dangerous bar crossings. We will be monitoring this period and updating as confidence increases in the timing and details. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 421 PM PDT Sat Nov 1 2025/ UPDATE...Aviation Discussion updated. AVIATION...02/00Z TAFs...IFR/MVFR with local LIFR conditions and light rain are occuring along the coast as a front moves inland. Conditions may lift to a mix of VFR and MVFR/IFR along the coast early this evening but expect IFR/LIFR to return to coastal areas later this evening into Sunday morning. MVFR and rain have spread into Douglas county and MVFR will spread into Jackson, Josephine and western Siskiyou counties late this afternoon and this evening, followed by lower ceilings IFR/LIFR developing in many valleys west of the Cascades early Sunday morning. East of the Cascades, areas of MVFR/IFR will develop tonight into Sunday morning. Low clouds are expected to lift and clear to VFR areawide between 17-20z Sunday. PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 221 PM PDT Sat Nov 1 2025/ DISCUSSION...An active pattern will continue through the next several days, with only a few breaks here and there all the way into next weekend. There will be several frontal passages in that time, the first weak front is passing today, then a very robust system arrives Monday into early Wednesday, followed by another front around Thursday, then finally another system arrives next weekend. Wet and windy weather will accompany nearly all of these systems, but winter weather will not be too much of a concern given the expected higher snow levels. A narrow band of precipitation has moved onshore this morning, and as of this writing is stretched along a corridor from coastal Curry County northeast to the Cascades just west of Bend. This area of rain will push eastward through the afternoon, then dissipate as it crosses the Cascades this evening and tonight. Most rain will fall along and west of the Cascades, but a few hundredths are possible to the east, with any stronger showers that make it over the mountains. Breezy winds are accompanying this front, but nothing impactful is expected. Conditions should improve by tomorrow, and although temperatures will be cooler behind the front, skies will be mostly clear after any early morning valley fog dissipates. After a rather quiet Sunday, a warm front will arrive from the south and linger in the area Monday through midday Tuesday. The overrunning of warm air over the cooler surface air will result in widespread light precipitation, but temperatures will not warm much at the surface, remaining at or just below seasonal normals. The most impactful system in the forecast is then set to arrive late Tuesday into Wednesday, with a intense front and a substantial moisture plume bringing strong winds and heavy precipitation to southern Oregon and far northern California. With surface pressure gradients ranging roughly between -6 and -8 mb across the area, and with 700mb winds of 50 to 70 kts, it is looking more and more likely that wind headlines will be necessary, especially along the coast, in the Shasta Valley, and across the East Side. Some guidance suggests that strong winds could impact portions of the West Side as well, including near Ashland, and in some ofthe other roughly south/north oriented valleys. Meanwhile, moisture transport values for this front, as measured by IVT, a function of wind and humidity, are approaching values of 1000 to 1250 (a typical front would average about 500). This would be considered a strong atmospheric river, or a rather classic "Pineapple Express." A substantial amount of rain is possible for much of the area, especially along the coast and in Siskiyou County. However, the front is a fast mover, and some locations, such as the Rogue Valley near Medford and much of the East Side, will see lesser amounts due to significant downsloping winds off the Siskiyous and Cascades. While widespread flooding is not expected at this time, we will likely see nuisance type flooding with ponding on roadways and blocked drains due to recently fallen leaves. Additionally, King Tides are expected Nov 5-7 (Wednesday through Friday) which could bring additional impacts to the coast as this system enters the region, especially with heavy rains putting additional water into area rivers and estuaries. Some localized coastal flooding is possible, particularly for low lying areas and roads around Coos Bay. Lastly, snow levels will remain high through next week, between 6000 and 8000 feet, so we are not expecting any impactful winter weather. Another robust front arrives Thursday, and although it looks weaker than the previous one, most model guidance suites are depicting somewhat similar potential for impactful winds and rain. After a brief break Friday, we are seeing the signs of another frontal system Saturday/Sunday. There is quite a bit of variation in model guidance at this time range, so confidence is low, but it does look like the active pattern shows very little sign of slowing down as we head into next week. -BPN && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$

571 FXUS66 KEKA 012228 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 328 PM PDT Sat Nov 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Light to locally moderate rain in Del Norte and northern Humboldt this afternoon and evening, while dry weather prevails elsewhere. Active weather return on Monday. Stronger storm possible Wednesday, with the potential for strong to damaging south winds, heavy rainfall and urban and small stream flooding. High than normal astronomical tides Tuesday through Saturday. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and warmer Sunday and into Monday. - Active weather returns on Monday, with light to moderate rainfall. - Confidence continue to increase with the potential of a strong Atmospheric River bringing strong to damaging south winds, heavy rainfall, and urban and small stream flooding. - Higher than normal tides next week with storm surge, promoting coastal flooding expected in Humboldt Bay-North Spit and Crescent City. && .DISCUSSION...High pressure continues to breakdown today as a series of H5 shortwave troughs move across the Pacific Northwest. Coastal stratus prevails along the coast, while mid-level moisture begins to stream in from the northwest. In addition, low clouds in many interior valleys have been stubborn to clear out again early this afternoon. Deeper saturation is forecast to occur across the Redwood Coast this afternoon and evening as a surface cold front approaches from the northwest. Light to locally moderate rainfall is expected, occurring first over Del Norte County mid- to late afternoon, followed by Humboldt County this evening. Some light rain or sprinkles are possible in northern Trinity County later this evening. Farther south, dry air will prevail across Mendocino and Lake counties, precluding any precipitation development. Quiet weather conditions is expected on Sunday, and even into at least the first half of Monday, as heights aloft rebound and a weak ridging moves into the region. Breezy northwesterly winds are forecast to develop over the coastal headlands in the afternoon. Interior high temperatures are expected to be generally in the 70`s. Any areas that do have fog develop overnight will likely be slow to clear and may be lower than forecast. For the coastal areas, after the morning stratus, mostly sunny skies expected, allowing highs to warm to the low to mid 60`s. Active weather pattern is expected on Monday as a series of upper- level trough and associated frontal system impacts the Pacific Northwest and Northern California through Thursday, along with a round of IVT flux. The first system is expected to arrive Monday evening, bringing light to locally moderate rainfall and breezy to gusty south winds. A second, stronger system will approaches the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. A potent upstream with the core of jet streak up to 150 kts aids in a deepening of a large upper-level trough, with a surface cyclogenesis occurring in response. Ensemble clusters are in a good agreement with the deep trough approaching well negatively tilted from NERN Pacific into the Pacific Northwest and Northern California. This will likely bring a brief strong atmospheric river event to northern California, with heavy rainfall and strong to damaging south winds. The surface pressure gradient tightening Tuesday night as a low level jet (925mb) up to 70 kts develops along the coast. A well- mixed boundary layer near or along the surface front will allow for higher momentum air to mix down to the surface. There is a 40-60% chance of gusts greater than 40 mph for the lowest elevations widespread. For higher elevations, NBM probability indicate 60-90% chance for wind gusts greater than 55 mph over the coastal headlands and exposed ridges in Del Norte and Humboldt counties. Regarding precipitation, substantial amount of rain is possible for much of the area Tuesday through Thursday, with the heaviest on Wednesday. The NBM probability of 6 hours precipitation greater than 1 inch is 30-60% for Del Norte and Humboldt counties from 4 AM to 10 AM Wednesday. While 25-40% for Mendocino and Trinity counties, and limited to 10-15% chance for Lake County. Much colder temperatures aloft behind the frontal passage could support greater instability with heavier rain showers and possibly thunderstorms continuing Wednesday afternoon and evening or into Thursday. There is a fairly large spread in precipitation estimates. Comparing the low end and high end amounts (25th and 75th percentile) for 48 hour precipitation (4 AM Tuesday to 4 AM Thursday). The high- end amounts from NBM (75th percentile) for 48 hr of precipitation (4 AM Tuesday to 4 AM Thursday) indicates 2.5 to 4.0 inches in Del Norte, Humboldt and Trinity counties, with locally up to 4.5 inches over exposed ridges. While 1.5 to 2.5 inches for Mendocino and Lake counties, with heaviest along the coast. The low end precipitation (25th percentile) suggest 1.0 to 2.50 inches, with locally up to 3.0 inches over the southwest windward facing terrain. Details will become clearer in the coming days. /ZVS && .AVIATION...18Z TAFs...Southerly winds with some gusts around 20 kts will remain through the afternoon at CEC ahead of a weak front. Conditions have trended VFR to MVFR Saturday afternoon for the coastal terminals. Light rainfall will continue to move in with the front this afternoon. The light rainfall and following light drizzle will present a relatively brief window for IFR to LIFR CIGS and VIZ. The highest probability is from 23Z Saturday to 05Z Sunday for the coastal terminals. Conditions are forecast to improve behind the front tonight for CEC and ACV with a deepening marine layer. IFR to LIFR conditions, with areas of fog will linger longer for the interior and areas south around Fort Bragg. Northerly winds will increase behind the FROPA tonight after after 5Z Sunday. UKI is currently forecast to remain VFR with no precipitation expected. Some soundings depict lower level moisture entering the valley. The main threat for stratus intrusion will be if the marine layer deepens enough to spill over from the west, but confidence is low at this time for this outcome. JJW Terminal Forecast/Confidence... CEC: 55% chance for IFR (00Z SUN to 03Z SUN) 45% chance for LIFR (23Z SAT to 03Z SUN) 20% chance for less than 1SM VIS (00Z SUN to 02Z SUN) ACV: 55% chance for IFR (01Z SUN to 05Z SUN) 45% chance for LIFR (01Z SUN to 05Z SUN) 25% chance for less than 1SM VIS (02Z SUN to 05Z SUN) UKI: 40% MVFR ceilings (13Z SUN to 17Z SUN) 45% chance for LIFR (14Z SUN to 17Z SUN) JJW && .MARINE...A large, long period WNW swell is peaking in size this afternoon around 13 to 16 ft at 16-18 seconds. The swell will then slowly subside this evening and into Monday when a smaller reinforcing NW swell moves in. Northerly winds will increase tonight behind a weak front. Gusts up to 30 kts are forecast by early Sunday morning for mainly the outer waters beyond 10 nm. Combined sea heights from the short period seas and fading WNW swell may near 14 ft Sunday. The northerly winds will quickly ease late Sunday. An area of low pressure will clip the waters Monday. Southerly winds will gust up to 30 kts Monday and into Tuesday for a small portion of the northern outer zone 470 as it Passes. A strong frontal system will begin moving in Tuesday when southerly winds quickly strengthen. Strong Gale conditions are likely, with Storm force gusts over 50 kts possible and forecast Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. JJW && .BEACH HAZARDS...A large, long period WNW swell is peaking in size this afternoon around 13 to 16 ft at 16-18 seconds. The swell will then slowly subside this evening. The sneaker wave risk will continue into Sunday morning as the wave energy decays. JJW && .COASTAL FLOODING...Starting on Tuesday, astronomical high tides will near of exceed 8 ft at the North Spit tide gauge. The highest tides, at around 8.5 ft will in occur in the late mornings through midday on Thursday and Friday. Moderate to strong southerly winds are forecast through this timeframe, and will further contribute to a positive tidal anomaly. Water levels may reach 10 ft at North Spit when high tides align with the strong southerly winds. Currently, the strongest southerly winds are forecast Wednesday morning. Expect Coastal Flood Advisory issuance, with the possibility of a Coastal Flood Warning if confidence increase of the southerly wind anomaly. JJW && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for CAZ101-103- 104-109. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for PZZ450-455- 470-475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

741 FXUS66 KMTR 020010 AAA AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service San Francisco CA 510 PM PDT Sat Nov 1 2025 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 309 AM PDT Sat Nov 1 2025 - Quiet and warm through the weekend with hazardous beach conditions at Pacific Coast beaches - Next storm system on tap for late Tuesday/Wednesday, widespread rainfall, highest totals North Bay - Potential for a brief hazardous wind threat Wednesday morning && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 140 PM PDT Sat Nov 1 2025 (This evening through Sunday) Outside of a few patches of clouds along the immediate coastline we have wall to wall sunshine blanketing the Bay Area and Central Coast. Not a bad way to begin November. Highs today will top out in the 60s to lower 80s, or as much as 10 degrees above normal. If you prefer cool and wet weather, just wait. You`ll have your turn, see Long Term. For tonight - shallow marine layer coupled with lighter flow will lead to some patchy dense fog again. Probabilistic guidance gives the North Bay Valleys and Monterey Bay coast about 30% chc of vis less than one mile. Location wise that is very similar to this morning. Would like higher probs before issuing Dense Fog this far out. Will need to monitor closely tonight. Sunday - almost a repeat of Saturday. Overall sensible weather will be similar. Temperatures in the 60s to 80s. A few interior spots will make a run into the mid 80s. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 240 PM PDT Sat Nov 1 2025 (Sunday night through next Friday) To kick off another work week we can expect a quiet start weather wise with seasonably mild temperatures. That will quickly change Monday night into Tuesday as we see a marked change in the longwave pattern. Let`s take a broader look at the water vapor imagery over the Northern Hemisphere this afternoon. There is a small ripple currently over Siberia. This ripple will get picked up by upper level flow. A anomalously strong 150kt jet will take the ripple, push through the Aleutians and undergo enhanced cyclogenesis. By Tuesday, latest guidance shows a notably strong 970-980mb low spinning off the PacNW coast. The fetch zone to the south of the deepening low will tap into a moisture plume tracking NE from the sub-tropics. IVT (integrated vapor transport) and IWV (integrated water vapor) values rapidly climb over OR/CA by Tuesday before moving southward into the Bay Area by early Wednesday. Pretty impressive values being seen on Atmospheric River Guidance for IVT and IWV 12z Wednesday. Later in the season this would be more of a problem with wetter soils and fuller streams/creeks/rivers. Thankfully, guidance pushes the moisture plume through the region rather quickly. That`s not to say we won`t have a period of moderate to heavy precip on Wednesday, but likelihood of stalling is less. Minor to moderate hydro concerns will be possible during this time period on Wednesday. As with may early season systems this system will fade in strength and intensity as it progresses southward Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. As such, high moisture content and resulting precip are still focused Golden Gate northward. Steadier rainfall will transition to move showers and taper off N to S during the day Thursday. Rainfall amounts have trended upward slightly with WPC placing portions of Sonoma in an Excessive Rainfall Outlook on Wednesday. Rainfall totals Tuesday through Thursday: North Bay 1-2", Bay Area 0.5-1" (some rain shadowing possible for San Jose), Central Coast a few 0.01-0.5". A secondary moisture push on Thursday night into Friday will bring a renewed chance for precip across the North Bay. Two other impacts with this system that we`ll be fine tuning will be thunderstorms and wind. Latest guidance has now shown more instability and higher chances for thunder with the front and moisture plume on Wednesday. A 15-25% chc of thunderstorms have been added to the forecast. Main threats will be gusty winds and heavy rain. As for wind, EC Extreme Forecast Index continues to advertise a solid wind threat for the Bay Area (north of Monterey Bay). Not only are there abnormally high winds being forecast there is also a higher percentage of the ensemble members saying so, esp Mendo county. In other words, higher confidence for stronger winds. Will likely need some Wind Advisory or High Wind Warning for portions of the Bay Area, coast/mts. This will be the first real wind test of the season. For those keeping score at home, some of the CAMs show absurd winds of 80-90 mph off the NorCal near Arcata. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 508 PM PDT Sat Nov 1 2025 The current expectation, albeit with low to medium confidence, is that widespread MVFR to near VLIFR will re-develop. The latest TAF set narrows the window for these flight categories based on short term model trends and the potential that the marine layer may still remain compressed to slow initial development/areal coverage. In fact KLVK is forecast to remain VFR through the valid TAF cycle. Conditions will deteriorate between 05-08Z Sun at KHAF and North Bay sites with ceilings and visibilities approaching airport minimums. IFR stratus seems most probable at KOAK, but depending on how quickly stratus re-develop, alterations to the timing are probable. The compressed marine layer should equate to a rapid erosion of stratus, mist, and fog by 17-18Z, except at KHAF where poor conditions remain through mid-afternoon. Vicinity of SFO...MVFR and intermittent IFR are forecast with low to medium confidence. At present time, MVFR cigs are anticipated to invade just prior to 11Z with intermittent IFR shortly thereafter. If short term model trends continue, it`s conceivable that IFR may not be needed given the compression of the marine layer and climatology (IFR is a little a-typical for this time of year). VFR is anticipated to return late morning with diurnal NW`ly breezes funneling through the San Bruno Gap. SFO Bridge Approach...VAPS currently, but loss of VAPS likely by the Sunday AM push. Cigs should scatter near or after 18Z Sunday. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with stratus developing over the next 2-4 hours. By 04Z, IFR is forecast to spill through the mouth of Monterey Bay. LIFR to VLIFR visibility and ceilings appear to be most likely at these terminals for a few hours on Sunday morning with VFR not returning near or after 18Z. Confidence in exact timing of stratus development is low, but there`s high confidence that by the 6Z to 9Z timeframe that LIFR/VLIFR will be in place at the terminals. && .MARINE... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 508 PM PDT Sat Nov 1 2025 Moderate to fresh northerly breezes will prevail through the weekend with strong gusts for the inner waters and outer waters. Moderate to rough seas for the inner waters and very rough seas for the outer waters will prevail through the weekend. Conditions improve Monday with winds diminishing to become moderate and seas abating to become rough in the outer waters. A frontal system will bring deteriorating conditions Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with very rough seas for the outer waters, rough seas for the inner waters, strong to near-gale southerly breezes with widespread gale force gusts, and rainfall. && .BEACHES... Issued at 416 AM PDT Sat Nov 1 2025 A long period northwesterly swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves, rip currents, and breaking waves of 12-17 feet to Pacific Coast beaches through Monday. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers. Swimmers should always swim near a lifeguard. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions and never turn your back on the ocean! && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late Monday night for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM....MM AVIATION...Bain MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

180 FXUS66 KOTX 012249 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 349 PM PDT Sat Nov 1 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty southwest winds Saturday afternoon and evening. - Weather remains active through the week. && .SYNOPSIS... Strong gusty southwest winds through the early evening. Otherwise areas of rain into the evening across far eastern Washington and north Idaho. Dry conditions return on Sunday then several storm systems will impact the region through next week, each bringing valley rain and high mountain snow. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Sunday: Light rain associated with modest low- level warm air advection will taper off this afternoon as a cold front, currently in central Washington, progresses eastward through the region this afternoon. As of 2PM, SPC Mesoanalysis shows strong 850mb southwesterly winds (~45-50 kt) for the Columbia Basin into the Spokane/CdA area, positioned over a stable boundary layer per the 18Z OTX sounding. High confidence exists for these stronger winds to mix to the surface with the cold frontal passage over the next couple hours. NBM probabilities remain high (70% or greater) for maximum wind gusts greater than 40 mph for the mountains, Columbia Basin, Spokane/Coeur dAlene area, Washington/Idaho Palouse and for the higher elevations for north Idaho. For maximum wind gusts greater than 45 mph, the highest probabilities (70% or greater) are found primarily in Lincoln/Adams counties into the West Plains of Spokane and across the mountains. Behind the front, winds will remain breezy through the evening with a strong pressure gradient in place (7-9mb from PDX-GEG), but will gradually decline through the night. On Sunday, breezy conditions persisting into the morning should limit fog potential to sheltered valleys. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler, with highs 5-10 degrees cooler than Saturday (low to mid 50s for most locations across the southern half of eastern Washington and north Idaho. The drier airmass behind the front will yield mostly clear skies with a beautiful end to the Halloweekend. Monday through Friday: An active pattern is expected through the work week with high confidence for multiple systems to pass through. For Monday into Tuesday, model guidance diverges significantly on the development of a surface low off the Oregon coast. The ECMWF ensemble suite strongly supports this low, which would advect moisture northward, supporting widespread precipitation across the Inland Northwest. Conversely, the GEFS and GEPS show minimal support, a solution that would result in a much drier scenario, confining precipitation chances primarily to far southeast Washington and the southern Idaho Panhandle. Ensemble agreement improves for Tuesday through Wednesday. An upper ridge is projected to build over the northern Rockies as a deep upper- level low approaches the coast. This pattern supports an atmospheric river event with a deep south-to- southwest flow. This would support widespread preciptiation, with the NBM showing a greater than 50% chance for 0.25 inches of precipitation on Wednesday for most of the region, with the exception of the L-C Valley due to rain shadowing off the Blue Mountains. Guidance remains in good agreement for another frontal system Thursday into Friday, likely having a more westerly trajectory. This would favor precipitation in the Cascades, far eastern Washington, and the Idaho Panhandle (60% chance of greater than 0.25 inches), with lower amounts for the lee of the Cascades (30% chance for 0.25 inches) due to rain-shadowing off the Cascades. This system will introduce the lowest snow levels of the period, bringing potential for moderate to heavy snow to the Cascades. Stronger winds are also possible, with a 30-50% probability of gusts exceeding 45 mph from the Basin into the Spokane area. Probabilistic NBM guidance for 24-hour snow accumulation Thursday into Friday: Snowfall Threshold Stevens Pass Washington Pass >2 inches 50% 90% >4 inches 30% 80% >8 inches 0% 50% >10 inches 0% 40% /vmt && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: Back end of rain band is currently located along a line from Bonners Ferry to Washtucna as a cold front moves through the Inland Northwest. Expect this line to continue progressing to the east between 00-03z. Ceilings have improved to VFR for all TAF Sites and are expected to remain VFR through the period. The exception will be for KPUW where HREF/LAMP probabilities show MVFR ceilings 02- 04Z. Strong southwest winds are expected with the cold front passage 00Z-03Z with potential for gusts of 30-40 kts at KGEG-KSFF-KCOE- KPUW. Winds will gradually decrease overnight though should be strong enough to inhibit fog from developing at TAF sites. .FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions at most TAF sites through the period. Exception is for KPUW where there is a 50% chance for MVFR ceilings between 02- 04Z. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 35 51 32 47 33 50 / 30 0 0 10 50 30 Coeur d`Alene 35 49 32 47 34 48 / 60 10 0 20 50 40 Pullman 36 49 32 46 35 51 / 70 0 0 30 60 50 Lewiston 42 56 37 50 41 54 / 80 0 0 20 60 40 Colville 24 51 23 47 23 48 / 10 0 0 10 30 30 Sandpoint 32 47 28 44 29 46 / 70 20 0 30 50 40 Kellogg 38 46 34 46 37 48 / 90 30 0 40 60 60 Moses Lake 33 55 33 51 33 51 / 0 0 0 10 40 20 Wenatchee 36 54 37 49 36 48 / 20 0 0 10 40 20 Omak 31 52 32 49 31 48 / 10 0 0 10 20 10 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse. ID...Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Central Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse- Northern Panhandle. && $$

560 FXUS66 KPDT 012346 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 446 PM PDT Sat Nov 1 2025 .AVIATION... Gusty winds are the main impacts across the area late this afternoon and through the evening. A cold front pushing through the region is promoting a broken rain band nearest to ALW/PDT/DLS as of this TAF issuance, and given the radar mosaic trend and ceilings forecast anything lower than a brief MVFR in rain is unlikely (10-15%), and near PDT/ALW if at all. Gusts will persist through about 6z before tapering off after 9z at most terminals as wind speeds also diminish by 25 to 50% overngiht. Russell/71 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 251 PM PDT Sat Nov 1 2025/ DISCUSSION...This afternoon through tonight...Satellite imagery shows a frontal boundary moving slowly eastward across central and eastern Oregon to eastern Washington this afternoon. Despite significant inland-penetrating IVT of ahead of the front, little precipitation has fallen to the lee of the Cascades due to an environment characterized by warm temperatures, breezy winds, and a dry sub-cloud layer. 12Z CAMs suggest the front will produce noteworthy precipitation -- generally 0.25-1.25" -- across the northern Blue Mountains and their immediate foothills/slopes as it traverses the region this afternoon through tonight. Elsewhere, lighter precipitation amounts of a trace to several hundredths are forecast. Of note, in areas where the morning inversion has eroded, southwest winds of 15-35 mph accompanied by gusts of 35-55 mph have mixed out the boundary layer resulting in abnormally warm temperatures of 65-80 degrees across the lower elevations. Additionally, wind advisories remain in effect through 11PM PDT this evening for the aforementioned winds for much of central to northeast Oregon and south-central to southeast Washington. Looking ahead, mostly dry conditions are forecast Sunday into Monday. Thereafter, significant uncertainty remains regarding details of the weather pattern, but active fall weather will likely (75% confidence) return later Monday through the remainder of the week. Though periods of widespread precipitation are forecast, snow levels are currently anticipated to remain high enough to preclude any concern for winter weather advisories for mountain passes; 48-hr probabilities of advisory-level snowfall from the NBM peak at 10-40% for the Cascades for Wednesday through Friday. The other item worth noting is the potential for breezy to windy conditions Tuesday night through Thursday. Clusters of ensemble NWP members all depict some form of a 500-hPa trough or closed low offshore through the period, and ensemble means and current deterministic runs show a negatively tilted shortwave swinging onshore Wednesday. This solution would result in breezy to windy southerly to southeasterly winds across much of the region, with highest probabilities (30-70%) of advisory-level wind gusts (45 mph or greater) across central to northeast Oregon with more limited coverage in Washington. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 38 55 35 49 / 50 0 0 30 ALW 42 54 38 50 / 70 0 0 30 PSC 37 58 35 52 / 20 0 0 20 YKM 33 56 35 52 / 10 0 0 20 HRI 39 57 35 51 / 30 0 0 20 ELN 31 51 30 48 / 20 0 0 20 RDM 30 53 28 54 / 40 0 0 20 LGD 36 52 30 52 / 90 0 0 30 GCD 37 53 33 55 / 60 0 0 20 DLS 43 59 40 54 / 30 0 0 40 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ044-507-508- 510-511. WA...Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for WAZ028-029-521. && $$ SHORT TERM...86 LONG TERM....86 AVIATION...71

481 FXUS65 KREV 012026 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 126 PM PDT Sat Nov 1 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry weather with warmer than normal temperatures will prevail through the weekend. * Breezy winds return Monday and Tuesday afternoons with low chances of showers near the Oregon border Tuesday morning. * Stronger winds, rain, and mountain snow is possible Wednesday into Thursday morning, but storm intensity and impacts are uncertain. && .DISCUSSION... Warm, quiescent weather continues this weekend and into early next week as broad high pressure directs the Pacific storm track well to our north. Our recent warming trend culminates in upper 60s to 70s highs today with the potential for Reno-Tahoe Int`l to set a new record daily high should temperatures exceed 77F. It`s 61F at KRNO as of 12 PM PDT, which is only 2 degrees warmer than this time yesterday when the high reached 72F -- so we do need to pick up the pace a bit. The only other notable weather item is continued morning haze in urban valleys through the weekend, but increasing winds and improved mixing should mitigate this early next week. High pressure finally shifts eastward in concert with a couple weak trough passages Sunday into Monday. Shower chances increase to 10- 30% across NE California into far N Washoe County Monday night into Tuesday AM, but any accumulation will be meager. Winds will become breezy Monday and Tuesday afternoons amid enhanced flow aloft, which may present some minor impacts to travel and recreation. Slow cooling begins after today, but daytime highs will still be in the 60s to low 70s until Wednesday. Our next storm likely arrives on Wednesday, resulting in noticeably cooler temperatures, and periods of stronger winds, rain, and mountain snow. Latest total snowfall projections aren`t very impressive as highest Sierra peaks only have up to 40% chance of exceeding 6" of snow by Thursday morning. This is likely due to storm`s faster speed and trajectory through the region, limiting duration of snowfall and keeping us on the warmer side, so snow levels are trending higher. Of greater concern is the potential for widespread strong winds on Wednesday as most areas have at least a 40% chance of gusts exceeding 45 mph. It`s probable that we`ll contend with greater wind impacts on Wednesday, but the magnitude of those impacts are still uncertain and will depend on the storm`s progression. Be sure to check back with the latest forecast as details become more clear! -Salas && .AVIATION... Morning inversions and valley haze may continue to reduce slantwise visibilities this weekend. Otherwise, VFR conditions and light winds will prevail through Sunday. -Salas && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$

973 FXUS66 KSTO 011959 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1259 PM PDT Sat Nov 1 2025 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and warm weather prevails through early next week - Active weather returns mid next week with showers, gusty southerly winds, isolated thunderstorms, mountain snow showers and slightly cooler temperatures. Low confidence on amounts. .DISCUSSION... Today...Dry and warm weather continue across interior NorCal this afternoon. Light, diurnal and terrain driven winds expected to continue as well. Sunday - Monday...Dry and warm weather continues to prevail over the weekend and into early next week. Light winds are generally expected. Patchy fog Sunday morning mainly in the northern San Joaquin Valley, with visibilities down to around 1 mile in some places. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 70s to around 80 across the Valley, foothills and mountains of interior NorCal. Tuesday - Friday...Ensemble guidance continues to indicate a pattern change for the middle of next week. There is still some uncertainty with the exact amounts and timing due to variability in the storm track. Forecast trends are beginning to settle on where the highest precipitation totals/impacts will be. A somewhat faster arrival time with showers arriving in the northern Sacramento Valley Monday night is appearing more likely, with most of the rain shower activity remaining north of I-80 Tuesday. The bulk of the rain arrives on Wednesday with widespread rain across the region. As preciously mentioned, models are beginning to hone in on Shasta County, the Northeast Foothills, the Sierra and southern Cascades, and the Coastal Range receiving the highest rain amounts. Snow levels generally above 7500 feet with this system, so the bulk of snowfall will be at Lassen NF and the peaks of the Sierra and southern Cascades. Minor impacts of wet/slick roads in the mountains Wednesday night as snow levels briefly fall to 7000 feet. We will likely begin messaging our forecast rain totals, wind gusts, and any snow totals tomorrow afternoon, when confidence should be higher, but a beneficial rain for NorCal appears the most likely scenario at this time. Other impacts include gusty southerly winds, isolated thunderstorms, slightly cooler temperatures, and mountain snow showers. Always remember to check your local weather forecast at weather.gov for updates! .AVIATION... General VFR conditions prevail across interior NorCal the next 24 hours. Some areas of BR are expected early Sunday, resulting periods of in MVFR conditions in the central/southern Sacramento Valley and northern San Joaquin Valley from 11z through 17z, with isolated patches of FG possible into the northern San Joaquin Valley. Light, variable surface winds less than 12 knots. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

436 FXUS65 KMSO 011848 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1248 PM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Windy conditions this afternoon and Sunday with the passage of a cold front. - Active weather pattern next week. Strong west winds are developing across the region currently 50 to 60 mph about 2000 feet above the highest mountains. These winds will slowly mix down to the surface. In the mountains, especially northwest MT, gusts 40 to 50 mph will be common. In the valleys gusts 35 to 45 mph will be possible with temperatures adiabatically warming into the middle 60s. Due to cloud cover and light precipitation northwest MT will only get into the 50s. Precipitation will continue to spread across the region through this evening ending on Sunday afternoon. This warm system will keep snow levels elevated until most of the precipitation has ended. While valleys are expected to be strongly downsloped and receive light amounts, mountains along the ID/ MT border may still receive an inch plus. Our next system arrives on Monday with a modest slug of moisture and lower snow levels. The focus of this system looks to be more over north-central ID and west-central MT. A couple of wet inches of snow will be possible over area mountain passes such as Lookout, Lolo, and Lost Trail. Only minor travel impacts right at the passes are expected. The weather pattern remains active and a wetter and warmer system to end the week is increasing in confidence. && .AVIATION...A cold front will be pushing through the Northern Rockies this afternoon and overnight. A plume of moisture is making its way into northwest Montana causing vicinity showers around KGPI by 01/19z with the shower activity diminish after 02/02z. The precip shower activity will impact KMSO between 01/23z to 02/12z, KHRF between 02/01z to 02/13z, KBTM and KSMN during the late overnight into early Sunday morning. Gusty west winds will be associated with the front with gusts up to 35kts. Some stronger gusts could be associated near showers as strong winds aloft get pushed to the surface. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight MDT tonight for Kootenai/Cabinet Region...Lower Clark Fork Region. Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM MDT Sunday for West Glacier Region. Lake Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 PM MDT Sunday for Flathead/Mission Valleys. ID...None. && $$

764 FXUS65 KBOI 020239 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 839 PM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025 .DISCUSSION...Current forecast is on track through the coming week beginning with a weak cold front overnight and Sunday morning. The front will bring light rain showers to the northern half of our CWA overnight and Sunday morning, but only clouds to the southern half. High temps Sunday will be about 10 degrees cooler than today`s near record highs. The supporting upper trough is very shallow and will be followed by a flat upper ridge and several degrees warming again Monday. A series of upper troughs and ridges will come in from the Pacific the rest of the week, with the strongest ridges and warmest temps Wednesday and next Sunday, and deepest troughs and best chances for pcpn (generally rain) Wednesday night and Friday. && .AVIATION...VFR this evening, with drops to MVFR due to low ceilings as a weak cold front moves through early tomorrow morning from NW to SE. Scattered light rain accompanies the front with little impact. 20-30 kt of LLWS possible as front passes. Surface winds: SW 5-15 kt becoming NW 5-15 kt behind the front. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-SW 25-45 kt. KBOI...VFR, becoming cloudy tomorrow morning with a 10% chance of light rain as a weak front passes. Surface winds SE 5-15 kt tonight becoming NW 5-15 kt after the front passes. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night...Expect warm temperatures this afternoon, with lower valleys seeing highs near 70 degrees. An area of high pressure is moving east, which will allow winds to become locally breezy this afternoon, continuing through Sunday. A Pacific storm system will pass to our north tonight, bringing light showers primarily to areas north of a line from Burns, Oregon to Boise to Atlanta, Idaho. The highest chance for rain will be in the far northern mountains near McCall and Baker City. The Treasure Valley might see a sprinkle or two, but any rain there will be minimal, likely less than one hundredth of an inch. Snow levels will be very high, holding above 9000 feet through Sunday morning before slowly lowering to around 6500 feet Sunday afternoon in the northern mountains. Total rainfall in the mountains will be light, only about .10 to .20 inch, and no snow is expected below 8000 feet. All precipitation should end by late Sunday morning. Clouds will increase Sunday night into Monday ahead of a stronger system. Showers will return Monday afternoon and evening over the higher terrain, kicking off a prolonged wet period for the mountains. Furthermore, breezy winds are expected across the higher terrain of southeast Oregon Monday afternoon. Snow levels will remain quite high Monday, between 7000 and 9000 feet, so any snowfall will be limited to the highest peaks. Rainfall amounts of one quarter to one half of an inch are expected Monday across the northern mountains as moisture deepens across the region. LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...A cloudy and wet long term period is on deck. Rounds of moisture will stream into the region over the week, as an upper-level trough meanders in the Gulf of Alaska. Embedded shortwaves troughs in the flow will provide enhanced periods of lift as the area stays under southwesterly-westerly flow aloft. In between these shortwaves troughs, brief weak upper-level shortwave ridging will exist. To begin Tuesday, moisture will be riding over a weak shortwave ridge, keeping PoPs 10-40% in lower elevations and 40-70% in higher elevations. Snow levels at that time will be near 8000 ft MSL. Wednesday will begin the first bigger push of moisture, with a preceding warm front in the morning followed by a cold front in the afternoon/ evening. Highest PoPs for lower elevations will be 40-60%, while higher elevations are 50-90%. Despite it being a "cold" front, the air mass following will keep high temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal. Snow levels will drop to 6500-8000 feet going west-to-east in the CWA, with gusty winds also being a concern during this time, particularly in SE OR. While a low chance (15-20%), it is mentionable that both the ECMWF and GFS are forecasting a small amount of instability 00z/Thu to 12z/Thu along the Boise foothills north to McCall. Was given confidence from both long range models forecasting this slight instability signal to keep chance of thunderstorms in forecast grids. Variation in model solution increases Thursday and beyond with shortwave timing and intensity. Regardless, another round of moisture with another shortwave trough will move in sometime Thursday, bringing widespread precipitation and temperatures near normal for this time of year. Moving into the weekend time frame, models agree on another round of cooler air and moisture sometime Friday, before models paint greater variation between solutions. The main point of contention appears to be the intensity of an upper-level ridge building across the Western U.S., which will determine what comes after. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.fcebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise DISCUSSION...LC AVIATION.....JM SHORT TERM...JDS LONG TERM....CH

575 FXUS65 KLKN 012044 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 144 PM PDT Sat Nov 1 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... 1252 PM PDT Sat Nov 1 2025 * High pressure will bring quiet and dry fall-like weather into early next week * A weak weather system is expected to move in during the mid- week portion with breezy to windy conditions and light precipitation && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Friday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A quiet weather pattern will continue across northern and central Nevada for the next several days. A ridge of high pressure will bring fall afternoon temperatures and cool nights. Winds will be light. Readings will be in the 60s with lows in the 20s and 30s. By the mid-week portion, models are showing better agreement of another low pressure system moving over western U.S. with chances for active weather returning over the silver state. Light rain and snow showers are expected mainly over the northern sections of the forecast area. Winds will be breezy to windy on Wednesday though several degrees of cooling is expected with highs in the 50s and 60s and lows in the 20s and 30s. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Confidence remains high for dry and fair weather to continue into next week. Increasing confidence of active weather returning next week. No changes to NBM grids at this time. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions and light winds will continue through the upcoming 24 hour period. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...86 FIRE WEATHER...86