357 FXUS66 KSEW 052116 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 216 PM PDT Mon Oct 5 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Zonal flow to weak ridging aloft and onshore flow at the surface will maintain seasonably warm conditions across western Washington through much of the week, with morning clouds and fog followed by afternoon sun breaks. Chances for rain increase towards Friday into the weekend alongside cooler temperatures as troughing develops over the Pacific Northwest. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The overall weather pattern look to remain fairly similar through Thursday as mostly zonal flow trends towards slightly higher 500 mb heights by mid-week as the ridge over the southwestern U.S. expands. What that translates to for the Pacific Northwest is a routine pattern of morning clouds and fog, giving way to sunnier afternoons with high clouds overhead. Chances for fog will be greatest today as light winds will this afternoon and tonight, and continued moisture will help promote the redevelopment of the marine layer and areas of dense fog. Slightly stronger winds Tuesday and Wednesday may help to trend things towards stratus and less fog by mid-week, but areas of patchy fog will still remain possible in the sheltered valleys. Temperatures will remain seasonably warm across the area with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s. Lows remain in the upper 40s to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Upper level ridging looks to gain its greatest influence across Washington on Thursday, therefore also forecast to be the warmest day of the week with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Most models agree on the development of an upper level trough digging into the Pacific Northwest Friday into the weekend. There will be some slight chances for showers across portions of the area but widespread rain does not look very likely with this system. There remains some uncertainty in the exact timing but Friday into Saturday have the best chances at this time. But an increase in clouds and an increase in winds is to be expected. Cooler temperatures also looks to be in store with highs dipping into the upper 50s to low 60s this weekend, with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. 62 && .AVIATION... Onshore flow will continue through the TAF period. This morning`s fog and low clouds continue to clear this afternoon, though a few pockets of MVFR ceilings remain in the south interior, the Pacific Coast, and north interior terminals. Conditions will continue to improve to VFR through the evening. Overnight: another round of fog/low stratus is likely with the next marine push, beginning as early as 06-10Z in west/central terminals, and likely lasting through 18-21Z before clearing. Winds will switch to the north/northeast at 4-6 kt for most south of the Strait of Juan de Fuca this afternoon/evening. A few gusts to 16 kt will continue in portions of the north interior through the evening. Light/calm winds are expected tonight/Tuesday morning before increasing out of the north 4-8 kt. KSEA...Conditions improving to VFR this afternoon/early tonight with high clouds. Winds will switch to the north/northeast this afternoon at around 5 kt before becoming light/calm. Fog/low LIFR stratus remains likely to reach the terminal again as early as 10Z, and likely lasting through 18-21Z before improving to VFR. HPR KSEA... && .MARINE... Onshore flow will likely continue through the week with high pressure remaining offshore. Several areas of fog will be likely next couple of mornings with ample moisture in each of the pushes. A weak push this afternoon is expected to bring wind gusts up to 15-20 kt in the central Strait of Juan de Fuca. The southwestern coastal waters will also see pockets of similar wind gusts through the first part of the week. The next organized frontal system on Friday will likely bring small craft winds to the coastal waters, and a chance for gale gusts to portions of the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Seas through Wednesday hold at 4-6 ft, and increase to 6-10 ft late this week with the late week systems passing through. HPR && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...None. && $$

152 FXUS66 KPQR 052004 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 103 PM PDT Mon Oct 5 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Unseasonably warm and dry conditions continue through Thursday with areas of early morning valley and coastal fog. Weak offshore flow will bring slightly warmer temperatures Wednesday and Thursday, before a trough brings a return to cooler temperatures with chances for light rain Friday into Saturday. Chances for morning frost increase next weekend, especially Sunday morning in rural valleys away from urban cores. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Thursday Night...Satellite imagery from early Monday afternoon depicted clear skies across nearly all of northwest Oregon and southwest Washington, aside from some scattered low clouds lingering along the coast and in the Cowlitz Valley from Kelso to Castle Rock. With high pressure remaining firmly in place between now and Thursday, expect a "wash-rinse-repeat" forecast with areas of morning fog and low stratus over the lowlands each morning giving way to sunny skies in the afternoon. The only change in the weather pattern is a slight warm-up in temperatures Wednesday and Thursday in response to the re-amplification of upper-level ridging over the West Coast ahead of a closed upper-level low centered well offshore from the central California coast. The NBM continues to suggest highs in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees on Wednesday for inland valleys, warming into the low to mid 80s on Thursday. Temperatures this warm are around 10-15 degrees above average for this time of year. Despite the abnormal warmth, daily record highs on Thursday will be out of reach for most sites, especially for northern Willamette Valley sites (Portland, Vancouver, Hillsboro, McMinnville) as highs would need to top out in the upper 80s or warmer. However, daily records at Salem (84F set in 1971 and 2022) and Eugene (83F set in 1934 and 1943) may be in jeopardy. -23 .LONG TERM...Friday through Sunday night...Late in the week and into this weekend, long-range ensemble guidance supports an upper- level trough developing over the Pacific Northwest, bringing a return to onshore flow, cooler and more seasonable temperatures, and low chances for light rain. While there continues to be uncertainty in its evolution, the majority of ensemble members from the ENS/GEPS still maintain light rain arriving along the north Oregon and south Washington coast around midday Friday, reaching inland areas by Friday afternoon. The GEFS is still trending drier than the ENS/GEPS, with 30-45% of the total ensemble space remaining dry through Saturday. Potential rainfall amounts continue to look very light, with only a 1-10% chance for rain amounts of 0.10" or higher Friday into Saturday, except for a 15-30% chance in the south WA Cascades and north Oregon Cascades. As the core of the upper trough moves overhead, much cooler air aloft will allow for sharply cooler low temperatures Saturday morning and especially Sunday morning. Chances for temperatures in the mid 30s supporting frost will reach 25-35% in the Upper Hood River Valley around Parkdale and Dee on Saturday morning, increasing to 35-70% and including lower elevations near Odell on Sunday morning, and near 10% in Hood River proper. Chances for frost Sunday morning reach 15-30% in north Oregon Coast Range valleys, the southern Willamette Valley and Cascade foothills from Cowlitz County south to Lane County, and 5-10% in the central Willamette Valley. Chances for a true freeze Sunday morning are limited to 25-35% in the Upper Hood River Valley near Parkdale and Dee, and 5-15% along OR-58 between Eugene and Oakridge. Those with agricultural interests or home growers with sensitive outdoor plants should continue to monitor the forecast this week. -36/23 && .AVIATION...Through 00z Wednesday...MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions are slowly dissipating along the coast Monday afternoon. As diurnal northwest winds continue to increase to 10-15 kt with gusts of 20-25 kt, mixing will help lift and break up low clouds, with a period of VFR conditions favored after 20-21z Mon. However, there`s a 20-35% chance that lowered conditions do not improve to VFR at all at TAF sites. Winds are expected to ease below 10 kts after 00-03z Tue, allowing the return of marine stratus and IFR/LIFR restrictions through Tuesday morning. At inland terminals, VFR conditions prevail. Fog/low stratus are likely to return at most terminals again around sunrise Tuesday, with IFR/LIFR conditions expected by 12-14z. Expect these conditions to remain through around 17-20z Tue. North to northwest winds today rise to 7-10 kt after 21z, falling below 5 kts after 00-04z Tue. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Prevailing VFR conditions. There`s high confidence that fog/low stratus returns Tuesday morning around 11-13z with IFR/LIFR conditions. Expect these conditions to remain through 18-20z Tue. North to northwest winds increase to around 6-8 kts after 21z Mon, decreasing to less than 5 kts after 02-04z Tue. -03 && .MARINE...High pressure offshore will continue to maintain diurnal northerly winds through the week with peak afternoon and evening wind gusts of 20-25 kt today through Wednesday. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect from 11 AM until 11 PM PDT today within 10 NM south of Cape Falcon and out to 60 NM south of Cape Foulweather. Expect largely wind-driven seas around 4-6 ft through midweek, with a west-northwest swell of 3-4 ft at 10-12 seconds. High pressure aloft will also support areas of dense fog developing nightly through the morning hours as cloud bases are compressed down to the surface. More active marine conditions are likely in the latter half of the week as troughing over the Gulf of Alaska generates a building northwest swell. Seas will increase to 7-10 ft Wednesday into Thursday, with the longer-period swell also supporting a moderate risk for sneaker waves to the coast. Chances for rain return to the region Friday into the weekend, though rain amounts are not expected to be very impactful. -03/36 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ252-253-273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

090 FXUS66 KMFR 052328 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 428 PM PDT Mon Oct 5 2026 .Updated AVIATION Discussion... && .AVIATION...05/12Z TAFs...LIFR conditions prevail over the marine waters and just inland north of Cape Blanco. Any additional clearing is unlikely through this evening, so expect LIFR ceilings/visibilities to become more widespread after sunset, including south of Cape Blanco. VFR conditions prevail for inland locations and will do so through the TAF period. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 258 PM PDT Mon Oct 5 2026/ KEY MESSAGES... * Hot and dry weather through the work week. * There will be a good chance we set new high temperature records Wednesday and Thursday. * A cold front will move through the region around Friday night pushing temperatures towards normal this weekend. DISCUSSION... A short wave is currently moving through northern California with some scattered cloud cover and showers south of Modoc and Siskiyou County. A few models are forecasting reflectivity over northern California as potential instability builds this afternoon. We`ll see if anything does form in our area, although the probability of any cloud to ground lightning is around 1 to 3 percent in northern California. This short wave will eventually move eastwards overnight with clouds and fog building in along the coast. Temperatures will cool into the lower 50`s in many of the valleys overnight with some lower 40`s east of the Cascades. As for the rest of the week, temperatures will push well above normal(~15 degrees) for early October with highs in the mid 90`s here in Medford and perhaps a few points hitting 100 degrees in the Klamath River Valley of Siskiyou County. We`re forecasting 103 around Somes Bar on Tuesday, which is typically the warmest point of our forecast area. Some high temperature records will fall if this thermal trough and ridge maintain the current strength. On Wednesday October 7th, we`re forecasting a high of 89 in Mt Shasta City and 92 in Montague, which would break the old records 88 and 91 both set in 2022. The hot conditions will continue into Thursday with a forecasted high of 95 in Medford potentially breaking the old record of 94 set back in 1996. In addition, Mt Shasta City`s old record of 88 set in 2022 could fall to the forecasted high of 89, and Montague`s old record of 91 could fall to the forecasted high of 93. The models want to cool things off on Friday as an upper level wave moves down from Canada. Sometimes the models can be too quick to cool things off when we`re under these thermal troughs during the summer. In any case, temperatures will likely trend cooler by Friday or Saturday when a cold front pushes through the Pacific Northwest. This cold front is leaning drier, although we did spot a few(~3/50) ensemble members putting down some lighter rain along the frontal boundary, so there is a chance. By Saturday, temperatures will be notably cooler with a 20 degree drop off between the middle of this week and by Saturday. Overall, some big chances in the weather over the next few days, although not impactful for the region. -Smith MARINE...Updated 130 PM PDT Monday, October 5, 2026...A persisting thermal trough will produce gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas during much of the week ahead. As typical in these patterns, the strongest winds and highest seas will be south of Cape Blanco, with very steep seas expected from Gold Beach southward. Winds will be strongest during the afternoons/evenings and very steep seas will return daily during the evenings and overnight periods. Fluctuations in the thermal trough could bring very steep seas northward to around Bandon late Wednesday into Thursday, but the overall pattern will change very little until late week/into the weekend. A pattern change may bring active weather towards the end of the week, with some guidance also showing incoming long period westerly swell arriving at some point over the weekend. Confidence is not high enough in theses outcomes to predict the sea state, but as this is the first sign of a possibly meaningful long-period swell this season, acknowledging it is worthwhile. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Hazardous Seas Warning from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ376. && $$

286 FXUS66 KEKA 052144 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 244 PM PDT Mon Oct 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Unseasonably hot temperatures with near record highs continue to generate Moderate HeatRisk across the interior through mid week. * A shallow marine layer will bring chances of morning coastal fog for much of the week. * Dry conditions expected through this coming work week. && .SYNOPSIS...An upper level ridge over the four corners continues to influence our area this week and will create unseasonably hot and dry conditions for the interior. && .DISCUSSION...A strong area of high pressure has built over the four corners and is bringing hot weather to the interior areas. Thicker than anticipated cloud cover on Sunday kept temperatures from warming quite as much, but this cloud cover is expected to move out of the area today bringing a mostly clear today outside of the coastal areas. Near-record high temperatures are expected with most interior areas seeing highs in the 90s to just over 100. High elevation areas above the thermal belt are likely to remain warm (mid 60s and 70s) through the night with valley lows in the 50s to the low 60s. Light terrain-driven winds are expected due to a stable atmosphere and minimal forcing. Coastal areas can expect continued overcast conditions with areas of dense fog and light drizzle in the mornings. Stratus may struggle to scatter along the Humboldt Coast this afternoon, but partial clearing is possible for a few hours in the afternoon outside of the immediate coastline. This pattern is expected to continue into most of the coming week as the upper level ridge stays firmly in place. The only sign of relief seems to be next weekend. The GFS and ECMWF ensembles show an upper level trough dipping into the area sometime late Saturday into Monday morning. There is a small chance of rain returning to the area during this time, yet any details are not clear at this moment. While it is important to remember this is the far extended forecast, the possibility remains. && .AVIATION...An attempt at optimistic TAF groups has proven to be most futile with the offshore circulation bringing stratus back into KCEC. What looked like scattering out has filled back in as of 21z for both coastal terminals with LIFR ceilings around 300ft and visibility peaking above 3sm and returning to 1sm or below. Further investigation of the vertical profile shows a very persistent and stout low level inversion, keeping warmer air aloft and the cooler denser stratus very close to the deck. Probability of improved visibility up to 5sm is around 48% for KCEC and KACV. Tempo groups will be used to buffer between hope and the ground truth. VFR at KUKI can be confidently stated as substantial clearing continues. /EYS && .MARINE...North winds build again this evening bringing widespread sustained winds of 15 to 25 kts for the outer waters. Seas steepen in response to these winds bringing combined seas of 6 to 10 ft across the waters, even in the nearshore waters where winds remain much lighter. Seas remain dominated by these wind waves through the week with only small south-southwesterly mid period swells in addition to the wind waves. Winds begin to ease Tuesday night into Wednesday, especially in the southern waters, as high pressure strengthens further. Stronger northerlies return Friday into the weekend. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ110>114- 118>120. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ470- 475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

721 FXUS66 KMTR 060012 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 512 PM PDT Mon Oct 5 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1236 PM PDT Mon Oct 5 2026 - Hazardous heat conditions inland persist through Thursday, never leave children or pets in unattended vehicles! - Elevated fire weather conditions persist in the interior through Thursday - Cooler temperatures possible late this week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1236 PM PDT Mon Oct 5 2026 (This evening through Tuesday night) Stratus clouds lurk at the immediate coast, associated with a shallow marine layer around 500-1000 feet thick, but the rest of the region remains hot through the next couple of days as ridging persists across the western United States, ridging which is helping compress the marine layer and preventing any substantial overnight relief from reaching the higher elevations. To our northeast, high level clouds and convective remnants, associated with a puff of moisture riding an embedded low in the larger scale ridging, linger over the northern Sierra Nevada range and into the northern sections of the Great Basin. This time yesterday, that puff of moisture was streaming over the Bay Area, resulting in streaming high clouds that contributed to some cooler (relatively speaking) conditions than the expectation. Today the skies remain clear, and it`s possible for today`s high temperatures to overperform yesterday`s, especially across the North Bay. High temperatures today and Tuesday range from the middle 90s to near 106 across the inland valleys, the middle 80s to the lower 90s near the Bays, and the upper 60s to the lower 70s along the Pacific coast. Mild overnight lows in the higher elevations, ranging from the upper 60s to the middle 70s, along with weak onshore flow will limit overnight recoveries. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the interior regions, excluding the coastal strip and the northern Salinas Valley, as widespread Moderate HeatRisk blankets the interior, corresponding to a moderate risk of heat-related illnesses for sensitive populations, including children, the elderly, pregnant women, people with chronic illnesses, and people who work or live outdoors without access to adequate cooling or hydration. In addition, many of the higher elevations are seeing Major HeatRisk, corresponding to a high risk for heat-related illnesses for anyone without hydration or cooling. Follow these tips to avoid heat exhaustion and heatstroke: * Stay hydrated and drink plenty of fluids. * Wear lightweight, light-colored clothing. * Reduce time spent outdoors or stay in the shade. * Never leave people or pets unattended in vehicles. * Use sunscreen if going to the coast or the pool. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1236 PM PDT Mon Oct 5 2026 (Wednesday through next Sunday) Ridging persists for the next few days and the Heat Advisory has been extended to Thursday night for the inland and Bayshore regions. Temperatures across the inland valleys remain in the middle 90s to near 105 into Thursday; despite a couple of degrees of cooling on Thursday, hazardous heat lingers across the region and widespread Moderate HeatRisk persists in the inland regions. Patches of HeatRisk linger into Friday across the interior, and the Heat Advisory may need to be extended if confidence in heat-related impacts increases. Towards the latter part of the seven day outlook, uncertainty in the forecast increases as the ridge starts to break down and a trough begins to develop along the West Coast. Ensemble model cluster analysis suggests a split between solutions that bring something akin to an inside slider to the Great Basin for the upcoming weekend and those that keep the ridging in play. The inside slider solution slightly dominates the cluster space at this time, but we will wait for the model trend to become clearer before committing to a particular solution. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 443 PM PDT Mon Oct 5 2026 Currently VFR everywhere except HAF where LIFR conditions have developed. Largely expecting a shallow 500 ft marine layer to remain in place today which will see a return of fog and IFR-LIFR conditions to the coast. Guidance suggests some potential for lower ceilings/reduced visibility to reach STS, OAK, and SFO but confidence is low that this will occur. Conditions improve by late tomorrow morning with VFR persisting through the remainder of the day. Onshore winds remain between 10 to 16 knots during the day tomorrow with lighter, variable winds overnight. Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Onshore winds will diminish overnight before increasing again during the day tomorrow. There is some potential for MVFR conditions to develop between 09-17Z but confidence is on the lower end. The shallow depth of the marine layer should keep stratus/fog confined directly to the coastline and prevent it from reaching SFO, SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Moderate onshore winds diminish this evening with light, variable winds overnight. The stratus deck is slowly expanding along the Monterey Peninsula coastline. It should reach MRY around 02Z and SNS closer to 06Z. There is the potential for it to arrive slightly earlier/later depending on how fast it is able to spread. Fog becomes more likely after 06Z with highest confidence in fog developing at MRY over SNS. Last night fog temporarily developed at MRY but it looks to be more widespread/consistent across the Monterey Peninsula tonight. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 443 PM PDT Mon Oct 5 2026 Gentle to moderate northwesterly breezes and slight to moderate wave heights persist into midweek. Winds increase and wave heights build, seas becoming rough across the outer waters, Friday into the weekend. Additionally, increase southerly swell will impact the coastal waters beginning Tuesday night and into the upcoming weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 306 AM PDT Mon Oct 5 2026 Strong ridging aloft will lead to hot and dry conditions through Thursday with elevated fire weather conditions across the higher elevations. Poor to very poor overnight humidity recoveries will continue across the thermal belts with pushes of offshore flow each morning. Hazardous heat will continue through Thursday with major to extreme risks of heat-related illnesses across most mountain ranges. A pattern change later this week will bring cooler conditions to the region. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ503-504-506-508- 510-512>518. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DialH LONG TERM....DialH AVIATION...Kennedy MARINE...RGass Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

310 FXUS66 KOTX 052343 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 443 PM PDT Mon Oct 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably warm and dry conditions continue through Thursday. - An incoming weather system on Friday will bring cooler temperatures, gusty winds, and chances for rain. && .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures will remain unseasonably warm in the 70s and low 80s through Thursday. Monday afternoon will be slightly breezy. Conditions will remain dry until Friday when a frontal passage brings cooler temperatures, gusty winds, and chances for rain. && .DISCUSSION... Monday night through Thursday: High clouds begin clearing out Monday night as a weak shortwave exits the region. Breezy westerly winds will linger into the late evening through the Cascade gaps with sustained speeds around 10 mph and gusts up to 20 mph. Elsewhere, winds will be light. Heading into Tuesday, a ridge of high pressure re- amplifies over the region, keeping mostly clear skies, light winds, and a subtle warming trend in the forecast through Thursday. Looking at temperatures, afternoon highs will generally be in the 70s and low 80s, around 10 to 15 degrees above climatological normals for early October. Despite the warm daytime temperatures, overnight/early morning lows will still be chilly as is typical during the autumn months. Strong radiational cooling under clear skies and light winds will support low temperatures dropping into the mid to upper 30s for the sheltered northern valleys. Patchy fog and frost has been observed in these valleys the past several mornings and will likely recur each morning through Thursday. For most locations outside of the sheltered northern valleys, lows will be in the 40s. Friday through Sunday: Confidence in Friday`s forecast is low, with significant spread in ensemble guidance. Around half of ensemble members depict the ridge of high pressure remaining in place over the Inland Northwest through the day on Friday, while the other half show a trough moving into the region. By Saturday, 70 percent of ensembles show a troughing pattern, though there is disagreement on the strength and track of the trough. When the trough does arrive, expect it to bring cooler temperatures, gusty winds, and chances for precipitation. We`ll continue to monitor the details on when that trough will arrive, where it will track, and how strong it will be in the coming days. /Fewkes && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: High clouds are passing through the region and are expected through the period. VFR conditions are expected across the forecast area. Winds around 10kts and above are still being sporadically seen at GEG, COE, and PUW, but are expected to relax to under 10kts by 03Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 46 75 45 76 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 46 74 45 74 46 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 47 75 44 76 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 50 79 48 79 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 40 74 38 75 40 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 42 70 40 71 41 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 47 73 47 74 46 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 44 77 44 78 45 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 54 77 52 78 54 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 46 75 45 76 47 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

951 FXUS66 KPDT 052351 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 451 PM PDT Mon Oct 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry conditions persist through the week. - Incoming system Friday brings breezy to windy conditions. - Pattern shifts to cooler and wetter over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... current radar and visible satellite imagery shows dry conditions under mostly clear skies. This is in response to an upper level ridge that will strengthen across the Eastern Pacific through much of the week. High temperatures peak today, reaching into the mid-to upper 80s across the Columbia Basin and Central Oregon. A weak upper level shortwave will dissipate as it moves into the area from the northwest, enhancing winds slightly through the Columbia Gorge and across the Kittitas Valley. Wind gusts of 33 mph have already been recorded at Ellensburg, with gusts expected to peak around 5PM up to 38 mph. Winds over the Columbia Gorge will also be on the rise, with gusts up to 35 mph possible at The Dalles. Flow aloft becomes more from the northwest in the wake of the passing shortwave on Tuesday and Wednesday. This allows high temperatures to dip into the upper 70s to low 80s both days. A slight increase in high temperatures is likely Thursday, in association with a building thermal trough along the Oregon coast. This synoptic feature will lead to winds being from the east across the Columbia Basin, dropping afternoon humidities into the low to mid-20s on Thursday. A weak thermal trough does develop on Wednesday which keeps overnight humidity recoveries into Thursday morning around 40% across areas of the John Day Highlands, Northern Blue Mountains, and Central Oregon. The upper level ridge slides west and further offshore on Friday, opening the door to a dropping upper level trough that originates in the Gulf of Alaska. This trough will approach the Washington-Canadian border early Friday morning before moving over the region and strengthening south into Northern California over the weekend. The arrival of the trough will lead to breezy winds across much of the area, as indicated by an 11-12 mb pressure gradient between Portland and Spokane via the GFS. This gradient aligns with near advisory-level values, but at this time the NBM only advertises a 15-30% chance of wind gusts reaching 45 mph or higher. The trough continues to strengthen and dig south on Saturday, interacting with the remnants of Hurricane Rachel as it turns north and becomes subtropical. This influx of moisture is still rather minimal, with 33% of ensemble members keeping the area dry on Saturday, and 67% of members bringing only 0.01-0.04" of rain to higher elevations. These differences are a result from guidance either bringing in the through (highly advertised by the ECMWF) or keeping the ridge or zonal pattern (suggested by the Canadian and GEFS). However, it is important to note that both the AI ECMWF and GEFS ensembles showcase a troughing scenario. Sunday is currently expected to be the wetter day this weekend, but rain amounts still struggle to reach wetting rain amounts. 75 && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... DLS/PDT/RDM/BDN: VFR conditions will persist throughout the period with high pressure over the area. Winds will generally remain below 10 kts throughout the period except for DLS which will have gusts in the mid 20`s for the next couple hours before beginning to decrease overnight. Garty/26 YKM/ALW/PSC: VFR conditions to prevail through the period. Winds will be light, 12kts or less, and diurnally/terrain driven. Lawhorn/82 && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 47 79 46 79 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 54 80 52 80 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 49 80 46 80 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 50 79 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 50 81 46 81 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 47 77 47 77 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 43 84 42 82 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 46 83 47 83 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 48 85 49 87 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 52 84 52 84 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...75 AVIATION...26/82

697 FXUS65 KREV 052024 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 124 PM PDT Mon Oct 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * A weak area of low pressure brings isolated light shower and thunder chances this afternoon. * Above normal temperatures are expected to persist through late week, with daily record highs possible throughout the area. * A cooling trend with increased winds arrives this weekend, but confidence is lower for precipitation chances. && .DISCUSSION... Showers with embedded lightning moved across the Truckee, Boca/Prosser/Stampede reservoir areas earlier today with light rainfall amounts to 0.10". Additional showers will continue to develop through this afternoon across parts of northeast CA, the eastern Sierra and western NV (mainly west of US-95) with similar light rain amounts or virga, and about a 10% chance of lightning. In addition, as temperatures climb and cloud bases rise, some of these showers may also produce occasional wind gusts to 35 mph through 6 PM. As this low exits and heating ends this evening, this shower activity will quickly diminish with clear skies prevailing overnight. For the remainder of this week through Friday, high pressure over the southwest US will rebuild into CA/NV, keeping our area in a dry and warm pattern. Highs will continue to run 10-15 degrees above average for this portion of October (mid 80s-near 90 for lower elevations/upper 70s-lower 80s for Sierra communities). For a list of record high maximum and minimum temperatures for the next few days at our area climate sites (Reno & South Lake Tahoe), see the Climate section below. As we head into the 3-day weekend, this warm pattern is expected to end as a broad area of a low pressure drops southward into the Pacific Northwest. This low will likely bring breezy to gusty winds starting Saturday which could continue through Sunday. Given the recent/upcoming period of very warm and dry conditions, these winds would bring increased fire weather concerns, especially Saturday when afternoon humidity is expected to be lower. Temperatures will begin to drop Saturday, but a more notable cooling arrives Sunday and Monday. The blended guidance is currently projecting highs to drop into the 60s to lower 70s by Sunday and upper 50s-mid 60s by Monday, but there`s still about 10-15 degrees of spread between the 25th and 75th percentile, due to varied tracks of this low later in the weekend. Confidence in precipitation chances is also lower, with Saturday now trending drier. Sunday and Monday present a variety of scenarios from no precip to a closed low overhead with several shower bands--for now we`ll continue with 10-20% chances across the area until a more definite trend emerges. MJD && .AVIATION... * Weak low pressure will keep isolated showers for the main terminals (except KMMH) until 00-01Z today. A few stronger showers may produce isolated lightning, brief MVFR with mountain obscurations and wind gusts 30-35 kt, especially for the western NV sites. * Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail at the main terminals through at least Friday with light winds (gusts below 20 kt). MJD && .CLIMATE... For both area climate sites (Reno at KRNO airport and South Lake Tahoe at KTVL airport): Record high temperatures for October 3 (91F) and 4 (89F) were tied at Reno over the past weekend. So far this month, South Lake Tahoe has reached any record highs, and neither site has reported any record warm lows. Near record high temperatures and warmest low temperatures remain in the forecast through Friday. Wednesday (10/7) has the highest probability (near 90%) for at least a tied record high for that date. Current record high temperatures for Reno and South Lake Tahoe: Date Reno NV South Lake Tahoe CA ---- ------------ ------------------- 10/5 89F (1979,1980) 80F (1990,1991) 10/6 88F (1942,1980,1991,1996) 78F (2014) 10/7 87F (1964,1980,1996,2014) 78F (1991,2014) 10/8 91F (1965) 77F (1996,2015) 10/9 92F (2015)* 82F (1996) * Reno`s latest 90+ degree day for any calendar year. --------------------------------------------------------------- Current record warmest low temperatures for Reno and South Lake Tahoe: Date Reno NV South Lake Tahoe CA ---- ------------ ------------------- 10/6 57F (2021) 46F (2021) 10/7 52F (1930,2021,2024) 43F (2021) 10/8 62F (1933)*46F (1969) 10/9 52F (2015,2023)44F (2003) * Reno`s warmest low temperature for any day in October. && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$

697 FXUS66 KSTO 051841 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1141 AM PDT Mon Oct 5 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat Advisory now in effect till 10 PM Friday for the Sacramento Valley, Delta, northern San Joaquin Valley, and adjacent foothills. - Widespread Moderate HeatRisk with areas of Major HeatRisk through Friday for the Delta, Valley, and Foothills. - Confidence is increasing for a cooling trend over the weekend, with some potential for unsettled weather. && .DISCUSSION... ...Today through Friday... While some mid to high level clouds are lingering this afternoon following last night`s foothills and mountain thunderstorm activity, mostly clear skies currently prevail across much of interior NorCal on GOES West satellite imagery. Slight chances remain for further isolated thunderstorm activity in the Sierra this afternoon, but chances decrease as we head into the evening, and activity that does occur is primarily expected along and east of the Sierra crest. Despite the brief dip in temperatures yesterday, highs in the Valley return to the upper 90s and low 100s today. These unseasonably hot temperatures will continue through Friday in the Valley, foothills, and Delta, along with widespread Moderate HeatRisk and areas of Major HeatRisk. Overnight lows will remain warm as well, in the mid 60s to mid 70s, with warmest lows in the foothills. This means there will be limited overnight relief from the daytime heat through the end of the week. Winds will primarily be light and variable, helping maintain these warm conditions. As such, a Heat Advisory remains in effect through 10 pm on Friday for the Valley, foothills, and Delta. Try to limit outdoor activities, check on neighbors, family, friends, and animals, and stay hydrated. ...Saturday and Sunday... A more noticeable cooling trend begins over the weekend as a trough potentially moves through the west coast, though there is a significant amount of uncertainty with how significant the cooling and troughing will be. The spread of possible temperatures between the 25th and 75th percentiles of the NBM is around 15 degrees, meaning highs over the weekend could be cooler but still well above normal, or they could cool all the way to near normal. Ensemble guidance also shows a wide spread of possible upper level patterns, with some solutions showing deep troughing over California, and others showing continued high pressure (though with less pronounced ridging than what we are currently experiencing). Solutions that do show troughing also indicate a trough progression that will bring breezy to gusty north to east winds starting late Saturday and continuing through Sunday. As model guidance comes into better agreement in the coming days, we will have a better idea of impacts, including any potential for gusty winds, significant cooling, and even possible precipitation. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions through the TAF period, with light northerly winds everywhere in the Valley, less than 12kts. Some gusts up to 20 kts in portions of the foothills and mountains through 15z Tuesday, particularly in southwest oriented canyons. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT Friday for Butte County Below 1000 ft-C. San Joaquin County including Stockton-C. Solano County including Fairfield-C. Stanislaus County including Modesto-C. Yolo/NE Solano including Woodland-Central Colusa County Incl. I- 5-Central Glenn Co & Interstate 5-Central Motherlode 1000-3000 ft-E. Diablo Range Above 1000 ft-Eastern Colusa County-Eastern Glenn County-N. Motherlode 1000-3000 ft-N. Sac Valley in Tehama County-NE San Joaquin Valley Below 1000 ft-SW Solano County including Vallejo-Sac Metro/W. El Dorado/Amador County- Sacramento County Delta-San Joaquin County Delta-Shasta County Foothills 1000-3000 ft-Shasta Metro-Sierra (Tehama-Plumas) 1000- 3000 ft- Southern Motherlode 1000-3000 ft-Sutter/Yuba counties below 1000 ft-Tracy Triangle Below 1000 ft-W Tehama Co Foothills 1000-3000 ft-W. Glenn/Colusa Foothills 1000-3000 ft-W. Shasta County 1000-3000 ft-W. Stanislaus County Above 1000 ft & I-5-W. Yolo County including Capay/I-505-Yolo / Solano County Hills. && $$

576 FXUS65 KMSO 051815 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1215 PM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Very warm start to the week, followed by mild conditions most of the week. - Change to a cooler, moister pattern this weekend. - Snow potential coming late next weekend and early next week. The weather will remain mild with temperatures about 15 degrees above average through about Friday this week. Ensembles are showing a trough move into the region this weekend and potentially a back door cold front by Sunday. Confidence is very high for a cool down for this weekend. The other impacts from this system are less confident. Ensembles are showing a very wide range of potential precipitation and snow amounts for Saturday through Monday. Precipitation amounts vary from a few hundredths to inch across a wide swath of the forecast area. Most of those details depend on the track that the low ultimately takes, which is highly uncertain at a 5-6 day lead time. The areas most at risk of significant snow accumulations are along the Continental Divide where the probability of 1 inch or more of new snow is over 80 percent. The lower elevations of western Montana have chances ranging from 0-15 percent for 1 inch of snow, and the Clearwater and Nez Perce mountains in central Idaho range from 5-55 percent chance for an inch of snow by Monday morning. && .AVIATION...High pressure and stable conditions over the region are contributing to valley fog and daytime haze across western Montana. Fog conditions tonight will be less than this morning due to a flattening of the ridge and some moderate winds in the terrain expected tonight. The afternoon haze is being caused by stable conditions along with some smoke from agricultural and prescribed fires. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

036 FXUS65 KBOI 052327 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 527 PM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Continued very warm and dry through Friday. - Isolated thunderstorms late today and this evening along the ID/NV border. - Much cooler, with showers possible, Saturday through Monday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday Night/... Issued 222 PM MDT MON OCT 5 2026 High pressure aloft will continue very warm and mostly dry weather through the period. A weak upper low passing eastward across NV will develop isolated thunderstorms late today and this evening along the ID/NV border. Gusty outflow winds to 40 mph are possible from these storms. Light terrain-driven winds elsewhere. High temps will continue near record high levels with little day-to-day change. Nights will continue cool resulting in large diurnal ranges. && .LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/... Issued 222 PM MDT MON OCT 5 2026 Upper-level ridging, warm temperatures, clear skies, and calm winds will continue Thursday and Friday. Temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above normal will be seen across the area on these days. A drastic pattern change is forecast over the weekend, with an upper-level trough moving through the Pacific Northwest. Winds will start to pick up on Friday across the higher terrain, with gusts 20 to 30 mph. The trough will push a cold front through the area on Saturday, bringing cooler temperatures and breezy conditions into the lower valleys as well. Highs are forecast to cool by 10 to 15 degrees from Friday, but ensemble variability in the timing of the front reduces confidence in the temperature forecast for Saturday. The trough is favored to deepen over the Pacific Northwest and is becoming increasingly likely to move overhead as a closed low into early next week. This will continue the cooling trend on Sunday and Monday. A chance of precipitation will develop especially east of the low with a 20-40% chance of rain and high mountain snow across central/south central Idaho, and a 10-20% chance further west. Winds will remain breezy under this pattern. && .AVIATION /00Z Tuesday through Wednesday/... Issued 527 PM MDT MON OCT 5 2026 VFR. High clouds moving overhead today, decreasing tonight. Areas of smoke and haze may reduce visibility near prescribed burns. Isolated showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening southwest of KTWF. Surface winds: variable less than 12 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW-W 5-15 kt. KBOI...VFR with high clouds. Surface winds: NW 5-10 kt becoming SE tonight. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....JM SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....CH

436 FXUS65 KLKN 052009 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 109 PM PDT Mon Oct 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Low probability for isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon as a weak storm system clips northern Nevada. * Record to near record warmth in most of northern and central Nevada returns Tuesday, lasting through Friday. * Possible pattern change bringing cooler more active weather beginning this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Sunday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: As the ridging and HPC pattern over the southwestern CONUS breaks down this week an upper level shortwave will ride zonal flow over the western CONUS through the Great Basin tonight. Boundary forcing and perhaps some diurnal instability will be enough to initiate some low probability isolated storm activity over northern NV this evening and tonight, but the moisture profile over the area doesn`t offer much in the way of support. PW values hovering around half an inch combined with elevated bases will lead to dry convection if storms do initiate. Little to no accumulating rainfall is expected with this system. The area will be under a short-lived post frontal regime on Tuesday before ridging builds back into the southwestern CONUS for much of the rest of this week. This will allow warm afternoon high temperatures to continue through Thursday ranging 10 to 15 degrees above normal in the low to mid 80s. Beyond Friday the ridging over the region gets squeezed eastward as a large longwave ULT pushes into the Pacific Northwest Friday evening. This will tighten the gradient over the area bringing the potential for gusty winds and impactful precipitation by the weekend. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Very low confidence exists in evening shower and thunderstorm activity Monday evening. That being said NBM represented even low chances very poorly so a combination of SST and SerpISC was used to increase Pops enough to generate some low chance IsoT across northern NV from 22Z to 04Z tonight. Moderate confidence exists in continued warm temperatures each afternoon through this week. Very low confidence exists in the potential for an impactful storm system through the area this weekend. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday afternoon at all terminals. Low chances for VCTS exists Monday evening into Tuesday morning at KEKO, KELY, and KWMC. Main threat with TS will be gusty, erratic winds and dangerous lightning. Otherwise westerly flow Monday evening will be light at all terminals. && .FIRE WEATHER... Low to elevated fire weather conditions possible for northern Nevada today as an upper level trough is making progress on its transit through the state today. This trough though weak, and having meager moisture to work with, will generate a low 10% to 20% chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening for zones 438, 469, and 470. Hazards from storms should they form will be strong gusty outflow winds up to 40KT, ground lightning strikes, and brief heavy rainfall. this trough will shift wast Tuesday allowing high pressure to build back in over the region. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...98 FIRE WEATHER...99