729 FXUS66 KSEW 060352 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 852 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure will bring showers and thunderstorms to portions of western Washington through Sunday, with warmer and drier conditions returning early next week. Offshore flow will lead to slightly warmer weather midweek. The next disturbance will bring a return of cooler conditions and shower chances later next week. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...Isolated showers continue to weaken this evening, with a few lingering showers tonight. The upper low continues to move over the region but begins to finally slide away on Sunday. With generally light flow aloft, this should keep showers more confined to the mountains. The chances will remain highest over the Cascades south of I-90, and there could be locally higher rainfall amounts with the slower moving storms. Expect showers to be mostly limited and generally dry conditions Monday for much of the area with the upper low finally pushing well inland and away from the region. Onshore flow increases at the low-level, bringing a steady push of marine clouds for the morning before some clearing in the late afternoon. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...Expect a shift to warmer and drier conditions toward midweek with the region remaining in between any significant weather disturbances. Light offshore flow in the lower levels will bring a slight warming back into the mid to upper 70s for mid- week, corresponding to minor (yellow) HeatRisk values. Another disturbance arrives later in the with a return of cooler temperatures and rain chances. && .AVIATION...VFR for all terminals this evening with patchy middle and high clouds overhead from what`s left of this afternoons convection. Flow is light and primarily out of the NNW. VFR conditions will remain overnight, the exception being HQM, where brief low clouds may develop Sunday morning (09z-14z) with MVFR/IFR conditions. KOLM may see brief vis reductions and mist tomorrow morning (12Z-14Z). Elsewhere, VFR continuing into Sunday. KSEA...VFR with light northerly to northeasterly flow at the terminal this evening, with similar conditions expected overnight. SCT to BKN clouds aloft expected. VFR conditions continue into Sunday, with flow becoming more northerly around 17Z and westerly after 00Z. 21 && .MARINE...Marine seas and winds are benign and remaining under any advisory criteria. Northerly winds will continue over most of the area waters through the rest of this weekend and into early next week. Onshore flow looks to increase late Sunday into Monday, which could bring a push of westerlies down the Strait of Juan De Fuca for potential headlines. Coastal seas remaining generally around 3 to 6 feet through the rest of the weekend, with some locations in the outer coastal waters increasing to 6 to 7 feet on Monday. Seas will level back down to 3 to 5 feet through midweek. Mazurkiewicz/21 && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...None. && $$

293 FXUS66 KPQR 060749 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 1249 AM PDT Sun Sep 6 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Cooler than average temperatures continue today with chances with showers and isolated thunderstorms as a closed upper level low remains in place over the region. Trending drier Monday through Wednesday with temperatures gradually warming each day as low-level offshore flow develops. The forecast becomes more uncertain Thursday into Saturday, with the potential for weather conditions to range anywhere from cool and showery to warm and dry depending on the evolution of the large scale weather pattern. && .DISCUSSION...Sunday through Saturday...Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that today will be the last day the persistent upper low pressure system churns over the PacNW before it finally moves east of the Cascades tonight into eastern Oregon, eastern Washington, and western Idaho. This low will bring continued chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms today across most of northwestern Oregon and southwestern Washington before chances decrease from west to east this evening as the low progresses eastward. Rain amounts will be noticeably higher for many inland valley locations when compared to Saturday. Although mainly dry conditions are favored at the coast, relatively wetter conditions are expected inland over the Willamette Valley, greater Portland/Vancouver metro area, Columbia River Gorge, Cascades/foothills, and Upper Hood River Valley. These areas have a 15-35% chance for 0.25 inches of rain or more through 11pm PDT Sunday, except 45-60% in the Cascade foothills and 55-85% in the Cascades. The additional rain will continue to dampen fire season and keep wildfire smoke out of the area. With the excess cloud cover and occasional rain on Sunday, temperatures will remain cooler than average for early September with highs mainly in the mid 60s to lower 70s, coolest at the coast and in the Cascade foothills. Although the aforementioned low will be well to the east of the Cascades on Monday, a shortwave trough rotating counter-clockwise around the low is set to move over Washington and possibly far northern Oregon. Model ensemble guidance suggests this feature will most likely produce very little to no rain at all, and the NBM backs this up with probabilities less than 5% for 0.01 inches or more between 5am PDT Monday and 5am PDT Tuesday except for 10-15% for the Willapa Hills. Temperatures will trend noticeably warmer Tuesday into Wednesday with high confidence for dry weather as low-level offshore flow begins to develop. On Tuesday, afternoon temperatures will warm into at least the mid to upper 70s, except lower 70s at the coast. Come Wednesday, widespread highs in the 80s are expected. Even the coast has a chance to reach 80 degrees or warmer on Wednesday if offshore winds last into the afternoon hours (5 to 15% chance, except a 20-50% chance for inland coastal communities such as Astoria and Tillamook). Come Thursday into Saturday, uncertainty increases substantially in regards to the large scale weather pattern and whether or not we will remain warm and dry or transition back to a cool and showery weather pattern. On Thursday, a cluster analysis for 500 mb heights shows around 40% of the total ensemble space from the GEFS/ENS/GEPS produces weak upper level troughing over B.C., western WA and far northwest OR. The remaining 60% of the total ensemble space depicts some degree of ridging over the area. The current deterministic forecast aligns with the latter outcome, suggesting the continuation of dry weather with highs still in the 80s for inland valleys, albeit several degrees cooler than Wednesday. For Friday into Saturday, clusters come into better agreement for upper level troughing (around 90% of the total ensemble space shows some degree of troughing over or near the area). However, there are significant differences in the exact amplitude, location, and timing of this trough, which will impact precipitation chances and temperatures. As such, the NBM 10th to 90th percentile temperature spread is very large for each day, ranging from 70-90 degrees on Thursday and 65-85 degrees on Friday. Friday and Saturday currently have a higher chance for conditions to trend cooler and wetter compared to Thursday, which the latest deterministic NBM represents with a 10-20% chance of showers Friday night into Saturday. Anyone with outdoor plans late in the week should monitor the forecast for updates over the next several days. -23/03 && .AVIATION...Through 06Z Monday...A low pressure system remains overhead, but will gradually shift east near the end of the TAF period. While rain has ended for all terminals as of 05Z Sun, rain showers remain over the Oregon Cascades. Around 10-12Z Sun, rain showers and lowered CIGs may return to the interior lowlands from the east, with guidance suggesting around a 20-30% chance of rain showers and MVFR CIGs between 12-18Z Sun. Rain showers may remain over terminals beyond 18Z Sun, but CIGs will likely improve back to VFR by then. As for the coast, rain will likely stay away from the terminals, although KONP has experience some vicinity showers in the later afternoon. In general, coastal terminals have some chances of deteriorated CIGs from 12Z Sun through the rest of the TAF period. While KAST has around a 20% chance of MVFR/IFR/LIFR CIGs until 18Z Sun, then a 20-40% chance of MVFR CIGs between 00-06Z Mon, KONP has a 60-80% chance of MVFR, 20-40% chance of IFR, and 10-20% chance of LIFR conditions through most hours after 12Z Sun. Otherwise, expect generally light and variable winds at all terminals, with the exception of winds up to 10 kt at KAST Sun afternoon. A 15-20% chance for isolated thunderstorms which could produce locally heavy rain, gusty and erratic winds, and small hail returns Sun, primarily south of KPDX and mostly inland. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions expected through the TAF period, with an exception of a 20-30% chance of rain showers and MVFR CIGs between 12-18Z Sun. Light and variable winds through the period. ~12 && .MARINE...Weak high pressure building offshore will produce light northerly winds of less than 15 kt through Monday. Rather benign conditions then continue through at least the middle of next week with surface high pressure strengthening as the stagnant upper low ejects eastward, favoring stronger north winds Tuesday into Wednesday. There`s a 60-80% chance of north wind gusts exceeding 21 kts across the waters Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. Seas continue at 3-6 ft with a dominant northwest swell at 8-10 seconds. -36/03 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

361 FXUS66 KMFR 060529 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1029 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026 .Updated AVIATION Discussion... && .AVIATION...06/06Z TAFs...VFR prevails across the region with widespread high and mid level clouds and terrain obscurations. An area of showers will persist tonight into Sunday morning, and a few of these showers will be capable of producing lightning. VFR should prevail for most areas overnight, though brief periods of MVFR conditions are possible under heavier showers/precipitation. A period of IFR/LIFR conditions is possible along the coast late this evening before showers become more widespread, with ceilings expected to lift to at least MVFR. Increased shower activity will persist into Sunday afternoon, with thunderstorm chances increasing after 18z for areas along and east of the I-5 corridor. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 446 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026/ KEY MESSAGES... * Rain shower and thunderstorms remain in the forecast for Sunday east of and along the Cascades, with lighter activity farther west. * A warming trend and dry conditions are expected from the start of the week into Wednesday or Thursday. * Substantial model variability exists for the end of the week. PRecipitation chances have trended downward but remain at 20-30%. In the absence of precipitation, gusty west winds are possible east of the Cascades. DISCUSSION...Warmer temperatures remain in the forecast today as a cutoff low within an upper trough lingering over the area weakens, although highs remain 5 to 10 degrees below seasonal norms. Flow over terrain is allowing cumulus to develop, but little activity has been noticeable on radar. Observations across the area show a few hundreths over remote areas but little of specific interest. Calmer conditions continue through the rest of the day. Clear skies tonight may allow for enough radiative cooling to bring local frost conditions (overnight lows of 33-36 degrees for at least 3 hours) for lower elevation areas east of the Cascades, but no Advisories will be issued this afternoon as meeting the duration threshold is generally questionable. Late tonight into early Sunday morning, the trough starts to swing inland. This motion will bring another 5 to 10 degrees of cooling from today`s daytime highs. Wraparound flow from the cutoff will bring the best rain shower chances along and east of the Cascades. Rainfall amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inches are possible over northern parts of Lake and Klamath counties as well as along the Cascades. Lighter amounts, mostly 0.10 inches or less, are possible for other east side areas and along the western Cascades foothills. Isolated showers are possible farther west. Afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances follow a similar pattern, with 30% chances over and north of Crater Lake. East side areas have 15-25% chances, while chances to the west are 15% or less. Shower and thunderstorm chances dissipate into Sunday night. Warm and dry conditions remain in the forecast for much of the week ahead. Increasing influence from both Pacific and continental ridges are bringing forecast temperatures up above seasonal norms for Wednesday and Thursday. For Friday and beyond, model variability is enough to keep substantial questions about any one outcome. Deterministic imagery for both the GFS and ECMWF show an upper trough helping to cool temperatures, while a sharp gradient may bring gusty westerly winds east of the Cascades. Turning to ensemble guidance, precipitation chances have trended downward but 20% (ECMWF) to 30% (GFS) chances for precipitation remain for the end of the week. -TAD MARINE...Updated 230 PM PDT Saturday, September 5, 2026...Light, northerly winds will continue this evening and later tonight. Low seas along with a few showers will persist through Sunday night. A thermal trough develops Monday and persists through Monday night, with gusty north winds and steep seas likely south of Port Orford through mid-week. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 5 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ356-376. && $$

869 FXUS66 KEKA 060029 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 529 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Periods of unsettled weather for Del Norte County and extreme NE Humboldt and Trinity counties is expected over the weekend. - Overnight temperatures for the interior will remain chilly, yet fog formation could inhibit any frost forming within inland valleys. - A building Desert Southwest ridge will sharply increase interior temperatures Monday, followed by further warming to above average temperatures into late next week. && .SYNOPSIS...A general troughing pattern will keep interior temperatures cooler than average and continue and unsettled pattern over the region bringing a chance for showers or isolated thunderstorms this weekend in Del Norte and extreme NE Humbodlt and Trinity counties. This unsettled pattern could also disrupt diurnal coastal stratus this weekend. Colder morning temperatures could occur for the coldest interior valleys this morning wherever fog does not form. A sharp warmup in temperatures will begin Monday and continue into late next week. && .DISCUSSION...An upper level trough will continue to linger over the Pacific Northwest through the weekend. This feature could aid in sporadic coastal stratus development along the coast, light rain showers for Del Norte and extreme NE Humbodlt and Trinity counties, and cooler temperatures inland. Short wave disturbances are anticipated to flow downstream over NW CA through the weekend increasing the chances for light rain showers, especially for Sunday. The interior will likely see morning cloud coverage that will dissipate through the morning leading to cooler temperatures through Monday. Low temperatures for interior valleys will be colder than average over the next few days with some of the climatologically colder valleys reaching down in the upper 30s to low 40s. However, a frost advisory has not been issued due to the likelihood of insulating cloud coverage for most major valleys. Sunday, a shortwave disturbance passing over the forecast area is increasing the rainfall chances for the Del Norte and the northern portions of Trinity and Humboldt counties. A very slight lightning chance exists for these areas well, yet NW storm motion will likely cause any storms that do form to flow into Siskiyou County quickly. Even the most extreme CAMs show very limited coverage of short lived thunderstorms over the area. Little chances for wetting rain (>0.10") exist for areas away from the high terrain inland for Sunday as well. A sharp warmup will begin Monday as a strong Desert Southwest ridge develops. Temperatures in the interior valleys may near or reach 100 mid to late next week. There are remaining questions about whether tropical moisture may stream northeast toward the region from decaying tropical systems well off the CA coast. Model guidance has a large variance in possibilities ranging from completely dry after Sunday to several chances of showers and possibly thunderstorms mid to late week. && .AVIATION...Calm winds return this evening with around a 40 percent chance of IFR or lower ceilings at ACV through the late evening/early morning. A deep marine layer set up may lead to early dissipation again Sunday morning, and improvements in ceiling heights, but southerly flow from a coastal wind eddy may lock it in longer into the afternoon. && .MARINE...A continuously evolving upper level trough over western Oregon is beginning to weaken. As a result, northerly winds are beginning to form. Waves during this time are expected to remain below small craft advisory conditions. Northerlies are likely to be between 8- 12kts with sporadic gusts up to 15kts with the strongest winds in the far northern waters downwind of Cape Blanco and in the southern waters downwind of Cape Mendocino where gusts could reach 20kts or even 25kts. The northerlies do not look to fully strengthen again until early next week. Hurricane Marie will deliver a long period southerly swell Saturday. Though small, at around 4 ft at 16 seconds, this swell is a larger than typical swell from this direction at this time of year. && .BEACH HAZARDS...Hurricane Marie is ushering in a long period southerly swell of 3-5 feet at 17 seconds for south facing beaches in Mendocino and Southern Humboldt counties, including the Lost Coast Trail today through into Sunday. Thus, there could be a risk of sneaker waves, especially if the swell comes in slightly larger. Sneaker waves are a unique hazard, with up to 30 minutes between waves. Large, unexpected waves can sweep across the beach without warning, sweeping people into the sea from rocks, jetties, and beaches. These sneaker waves can also move large objects such as logs, crushing anyone caught underneath. Even ankle to knee deep water can knock you down and drag you out when a sneaker wave hits. Pay attention and stay above the high water line and any wet sand to stay safe. If the ground is wet, waves have surged there recently. Stay safe and never turn your back on the ocean! && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ104- 109. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... None. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

826 FXUS66 KMTR 060651 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1151 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 111 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026 - Hazardous conditions at Pacific Coast beaches through Monday - Below normal temperatures through the weekend, gradual warming and drying trend kicks off Monday through Thursday - Light rain showers from remnant tropical moisture possible Tuesday through Friday && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1151 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026 (Tonight through Monday) Satellite shows a mix of patchy coastal low clouds and jet stream cirrus clouds otherwise it`s clear. Large scale mid to upper level low pressure remains over the West Coast with one more smaller scale 500 mb short wave trough ~ 400 miles west-southwest of Monterey that`ll pass by to our east on Sunday. In the wake of this short wave trough, thermal and height ridging will steadily redevelop and with the Sep sun angle it`ll result in a warming trend beginning Monday Labor Day. Reminder: A Beach Hazards Statement continues from the coastal North Bay to the Big Sur coast through Monday evening. Also, minor coastal flooding is likely within a small window of time of about 1 hour nearest high tide Sunday (Monday and Tuesday as well) for bayshore locations of Marin County. Impacts will include minor flooding of the lowest lying areas directly along the shoreline. At the San Francisco tidal gauge, high tide is expected to be 0.6 ft to 0.7 ft above normal (6.6 ft MLLW) at 7:53 PM 9/6. At this time we are messaging it here (and will include messaging in social media) vs issuing a coastal flood advisory for Sunday. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1151 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026 (Monday night through next Saturday) As mentioned a warming trend will begin Labor Day and this will continue Tuesday and peak Wednesday and Thursday. Minor to a few areas of moderate HeatRisk will return mainly Wednesday and Thursday. Then late in the week temperatures will trend cooler. Global models continue to show redevelopment of 500 mb troughing over the eastern Pacific during the upcoming week. 00z guidance continues to show retrogression (westward motion) of the upper level trough which will help steer residual tropical moisture to our west. Potential for rain this upcoming week has trended even drier. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 940 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026 Generally VFR conditions with patches of stratus developing at the coast and along favored ridgelines through the night. Lower confidence in the model output that puts stratus development at the Monterey Bay, and to a lesser extent the North Bay valleys, through the night. Stratus should mix out through Sunday morning with breezy onshore winds resuming in the afternoon and evening hours. Vicinity of SFO... Moderate to high confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period, with some MVFR clouds possible early Sunday morning. Gentle northwest winds will continue through the night before moderate westerly winds with strong gusts resume Sunday afternoon and evening. SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR at present. Model output continues to show the possibility of stratus development across the region but it hasn`t been observed as of yet and the model output is overdoing the stratus extent offshore. Thus, have elected to leave out mention of ceilings through the night. Light winds continue through the overnight period with a gentle to moderate northwest breeze developing Sunday afternoon and evening. Low confidence in some stratus developing Sunday night into Monday morning, particularly at MRY. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 940 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026 Gentle to moderate northerly to northwesterly breezes continue through the beginning of next week. Diurnal moderate to strong breezes are expected across the San Pablo, San Francisco, and Monterey Bays each afternoon and evening into the beginning of next week. Fresh to strong gusts become more widespread early next week before winds decrease by midweek. Long period southerly swell will continue to impact the coastal waters through much of the upcoming week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 538 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026 A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through Labor Day as the swell from tropical cyclones Marie and Karina reach the coast. Waves from these cyclones will travel over 1,000 miles in all directions, gradually flattening out to low amplitude, but long period swell. These waves aren`t very intimidating if you`re on a boat in the open ocean, but the long period allows them to push much farther up the beach. Long period swell always increases the chance for sneaker waves, but that`s particularly true this weekend since there are 2 different sets of southerly swell, and their energy will periodically combine. In addition to sneaker waves, expect strong rip currents and breaking waves up to 10 ft. As this is a holiday weekend and the weather is otherwise pretty nice, the exposure to the risk is high. Avoid the water if you`re not an expert swimmer. If caught in a rip current, swim parallel to shore until you stop feeling the pull. Even on the beach, be prepared for sneaker waves this weekend and never turn your back on the ocean. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Canepa LONG TERM....Canepa AVIATION...DialH MARINE...DialH Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

017 FXUS66 KOTX 060608 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1108 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool and showery weather expected through Labor Day Weekend with isolated thunderstorms. - A warming and drying trend returns around the middle of next week. && .SYNOPSIS... Active weather sticks around through Labor Day Weekend with scattered showers, isolated thunderstorms, and cooler than normal temperatures. A warming and drying trend commences around the middle of next week as higher pressure returns to the region. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Monday: The slow moving low continues to move over the region. Precipitable water amounts continue to rise to 0.8-1.0 by Monday. The increasing moisture will bring a steady stream of clouds across the region. As the low moves east, the moisture swath shifts away from the Cascades and more over the Idaho Panhandle and eastern Washington. For Sunday, precip chances start mainly over the Idaho Panhandle and expands west through the afternoon and evening hours. Precip chances rise to 60-90 percent over southeast/east-central WA and central and southern ID Panhandle from Sunday evening through Monday morning. 24-hour probabilities from 5 PM Sunday to 5 PM Monday for 0.50 inches are between 70-90 percent, 60-80 percent for 0.75 inches and 30-60 percent for 1 inch. Afternoon and evening instability will lead to weak thunderstorm chances. Cape values are in the in the 400-800 J/kg range with moderate lapse rates support weak convection. The main threat with the thunderstorms will be lightning and gusty outflow winds. Winds will generally be light outside of the thunderstorms. Monday afternoon will be breezy with gusts near 25 mph across the Basin. Highs will be in 70s to low 80s. Lows will also be mild with a range of 40s to low 50s. Tuesday through Friday: The ensembles are in decent agreement for the extended. A flat ridge pattern will set up over the region as the Low exits. It will lead to dry, warming trend through the end of the week. Precip chances will be less than 10 percent through Thursday. Another trough will drop in from BC Friday as remnants of tropical system begin to press moisture into the Pacific Northwest. It is leading to increasing precip chances going into the weekend. NBM thunderstorm potential in around 10-20 percent across the Inland Northwest with highest percents over Northeast WA and Idaho Panhandle late Friday and Saturday. It is too early to have much confidence in the upcoming weekend weather but something to keep on the radar. Highs for the latter half of the week will be in the 80s. Overnight lows will be in the upper 40s and 50s. /JDC && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: An upper-level low continues to linger over the Pacific Northwest. For the TAF sites, conditions will remain VFR through the period. Increasing precip chances over GEG/SFF/COE/KPUW/KLWS starting around 22Z and continuing through the end of the period. There is low confidence on showers impacting TAF sites. Showers could have isolated thunderstorms embedded. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low confidence on thunderstorms impacting any TAF sites. JDC ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 48 75 50 67 48 73 / 10 10 70 50 40 0 Coeur d`Alene 47 75 49 63 48 71 / 10 20 80 80 50 10 Pullman 43 71 46 64 40 71 / 20 10 70 60 10 0 Lewiston 52 76 55 70 51 77 / 10 10 80 70 20 0 Colville 43 76 44 71 40 75 / 0 0 40 40 30 0 Sandpoint 47 71 48 61 43 67 / 10 20 70 80 70 20 Kellogg 45 73 48 58 47 67 / 10 50 90 90 60 20 Moses Lake 47 75 50 75 46 78 / 0 10 20 10 0 0 Wenatchee 52 75 57 76 56 80 / 10 10 10 10 0 0 Omak 50 77 50 76 49 79 / 10 0 10 10 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

088 FXUS66 KPDT 060503 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1003 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - An upper low will bring periods of showers this weekend, mainly over the mountains...with the best chances Sunday into Monday. - Isolated thunderstorms chances (<25%) across the mountains through Monday. - Drier conditions from later Monday onward. && .DISCUSSION... An upper low over the Pacific Northwest will slowly move eastward through Sunday and by Monday will generally be east of the area. The associated trough will gradually flatten and by later Monday, the flow will become split across the region. Ridging from the south will build in by midweek, before another trough drops down for next weekend. The persistent upper low will continue to bring unsettled weather over the region, with periods of shwoers, mainly over the mountains. The best time for more widespread showers looks to be Sunday afternoon/evening into early Monday morning. There will also be chances for isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon and evenings, especially over the mountains. By Monday afternoon, precipitation chances shift generally from the Blue Mountains eastward, and by later Monday generally east of the area. QPF values have decrease a bit everywhere except along the Oregon Cascade crest this afternoon/evening, where amounts are generally >0.50 inches. Elsewhere amounts are generally less than 0.25 inches. On Sunday into Monday, amounts are highest over the Blue Mountains and pints eastward where amounts range from 0.25 to 0.50 inches. Temperatures remain 10 to 15 degrees below normal through the weekend and the ECMWF EFI puts much of the area in the 0.7 to 0.8 below normal. On Sunday, much of the southern Oregon Blue Mountains and portions of central Oregon are in the 80th to 90th percentile for precipitation as well, from the EFI. Monday looks to be a bit breezy with winds 25 to 30 mph, possibly as high as 35 mph in the Cascade Gaps, Columbia Basin, Gorge, Simcoe Highlands and Kittitas Valley. Beyond Monday, dry weather will move in as the trough moves east of the region and the flow becomes more split and zonal. By midweek, there will be some ridging moving in from the south. Most of the week looks dry with more seasonable temperatures. Another trough looks to approach toward the end of the week and will bring precipitation chances again, mainly to the mountains. This trough looks to be progressive and moves through rather than lingering in place. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... An upper cold pool and cross barrier flow will proimote showers across central Oregon overnight and early Sunday. Ocassional showers are possible with about a 10 to 30 percent chance for MVFR cigs about 3 kft or less in CB during the afternoon Sunday (BDN/RDM). Elsewhere is more likely to see VFR scenarios with intermittent showers. Lights winds expected at all terminals with the exception of locally gusty. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 45 68 48 74 / 0 30 50 10 ALW 50 70 53 74 / 10 20 60 30 PSC 48 73 50 78 / 0 10 20 10 YKM 51 71 52 77 / 0 40 10 0 HRI 49 71 49 77 / 0 40 20 10 ELN 45 71 47 71 / 0 20 20 0 RDM 40 60 36 67 / 90 80 40 0 LGD 43 72 46 70 / 20 50 80 40 GCD 45 69 46 70 / 10 70 80 10 DLS 55 69 53 74 / 50 80 10 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...77 AVIATION...71

247 FXUS65 KREV 052048 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 148 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Gusty winds will bring elevated fire concerns, and impacts to holiday travel and recreation Sunday afternoon. * A cold front will increase shower and thunderstorm chances near the Oregon border on Sunday. * Mild temperatures and breezy afternoons prevail next week with increasing shower and thunderstorm chances around midweek. && .DISCUSSION... An upper low and cold front will move through the region on Sunday. This will produce likely (50-60%) rain showers and isolated thunderstorms (25%) in northern Washoe and Lassen counties, as well as the Surprise Valley. For thunderstorms, models show meager CAPE values of only 100-300 J/kg, but decent 0-6km shear values up to 50 kts. These storms will have the capability of outflow gusts of up to 40 mph and infrequent lightning. Precipitation amounts with these showers are light, with general amounts of a trace up to 0.10 inches, with locally up to 0.25 inches. Elsewhere across the district, west to southwest winds will increase by the late morning into the evening. Winds will commonly gust upwards of 25-35 mph for most locations, and 50-60 mph along the ridges. For that reason, a Lake Wind Advisory has been issued for area lakes. Further south in Mono, Mineral, and S. Lyon counties, we will keep the strong winds, but humidity is much lower producing fire weather concerns (more details in the fire weather section below). The setup for the first half of the upcoming week features an upper low in the eastern Pacific with high pressure strengthening over the southwest US. This gives a robust southerly flow aloft, which will allow for subtropical moisture to stream into area starting late Tuesday. The potential for precipitation increases by Tuesday through Thursday, with the best chances in the Sierra from Tahoe Basin southward into Mono County. By Thursday into next weekend, the uncertainty in the upper air pattern is still high. The unknowns are the position of the upper high over the southwest US, the position of the upper low in the east Pacific, and a possible upper trough moving south into the area. For now, temperatures next week will trend warmer with light winds. -McKellar && .AVIATION... VFR conditions prevail. Winds this afternoon will be S/SW with gusts of 20-25 kts before shifting to more W/SW in the late afternoon. Winds aloft and at the surface increase on Sunday, renewing LLWS and mountain wave turbulence potential for all main terminals. Gusty winds may also produce blowing dust and reduced visibilities at KHTH- KNFL-KLOL Sunday afternoon. There are likely chances for showers and storms in northeast CA and northern Washoe County in the afternoon on Sunday, which may produce gusts to 40 mph along with reduced visibilities and lower ceilings. There are low 20% chances for patchy fog at KTRK from 09-15Z Sunday. -Salas/McKellar && .FIRE WEATHER... SW/W gusts of 30-40 mph and RH reductions to 15% or less will support 2-6 hours of critical conditions across valleys and midslope areas of Mono, S. Lyon, and Mineral counties Sunday afternoon. Winds shift to a more westerly direction following a dry frontal passage in the late afternoon and early evening. Nighttime recoveries will be moderate to good (up to 50-70%) Sunday night into Monday, with the exception of the Chalfant Valley where RH struggles to 40%. Farther north, higher humidity will mitigate fire concerns somewhat, but similar wind gusts will at least elevate fire concerns from the northern Sierra Front into the west-central Nevada Sunday afternoon. -Salas && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 11 PM PDT Monday NVZ001- 002-004. CA...Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 11 PM PDT Monday CAZ071>073. && $$

717 FXUS66 KSTO 052048 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 148 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Mainly dry this weekend, with some mountain showers and thunderstorm chance (15-20%) Sunday over northern Shasta County. - Gradual warming trend this weekend and into early next week, but highs likely remain below average for this time of the year - There is a potential for showers and isolated thunderstorms mid to late next week, especially for the Sierra. && .DISCUSSION... A broad-upper level trough centered over the Pacific Northwest will persist through this weekend, before weakens and shift northeastward early next week. A weak shortwave is bringing mid- high-level clouds across the area from the southwest today. However, dry weather conditions is expected, with isolated showers possible over the Sierra crest this afternoon. Daytime temperatures are running 5-10 degrees warmer this afternoon compared with yesterday`s reading, with highs in the 70s and 80s. Slightly warmer temperatures are forecast for Sunday, but likely remain bellow normal for this time of the year. Another embedded shortwave trough will swing through the region on Sunday bringing isolated mountain showers and a slight chance (15-20%) of thunderstorms to northern Shasta County. Generally dry is expected elsewhere. In addition, an enhanced in the onshore winds is expected. West gusts up to 25 mph in the Delta possible, with up to 35 mph over the Sierra. Dry weather with warmer daytime temperatures is forecast for Monday, Labor Day, as a surface high pressure begin to builds in across the area. Breezy north winds with gusts up to 25 mph is expected along the I-5 corridor on Monday. There is a low confidence in the forecast for mid to late next week as the models continue to have a disagreement regarding the position of the cutoff off California and the remnants of Marie. The GFS and ECMWF ensembles suggest PWAT anomaly generally about 150-200% above-normal across the area. Currently there is a potential for showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Sierra for mid-week. Meanwhile, temperatures trend warmer, with near to above normal by mid to late next week. && .AVIATION... Prevailing VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Valley winds light/VRB, becoming south to west around 5-10 kts after 22Z. Winds over the Sierra W-SW at 5-15kt, with occasional gusts at 15-25 kts. An enhanced in westerly winds is expected on Sunday. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

759 FXUS65 KMSO 052057 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 257 PM MDT Sat Sep 5 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Some stronger showers and storms possible this afternoon and again Sunday afternoon. - Significant rain event for much of the Northern Rockies Sunday through Tuesday morning. - Gradual drying trend develops mid-week alongside morning valley fog. A closed low pressure circulation is visible this afternoon on satellite imagery along the Washington/Oregon border. This low will continue to send waves of energy into western Montana and north central Idaho, increasing shower and thunderstorm activity through the afternoon. A few isolated strong storms are possible, mainly across southwest Montana. A defined area of showers with embedded thunder is anticipated to develop overnight into early Sunday morning as the low pressure system slowly wobbles eastwards. Persistent rain is anticipated generally along the Highway 93 corridor. As the upper low begins to track into the Northern Rockies Sunday, upper level forcing in the atmosphere will combine with significant moisture advecting into the region to bring another round of showers and a few strong to severe storms. These storms will be capable of very heavy rainfall rates (0.75 inches per hour or greater) along with the potential for hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph. The heavy rain in particular could cause localized flooding issues, particularly if a flood prone area or burn scar takes a direct hit. Storms will be possible across the entire region, but the stronger storms are more likely across west- central and southwest Montana. By late Sunday night into Monday, widespread moderate to heavy rainfall will develop across western Montana and north central Idaho. The probability for half an inch of rain by Tuesday morning is generally 80 to 100 percent for most locations, other than the southern end of Lemhi County. The most significant rainfall is anticipated generally from Missoula county north and east, including Lake and Flathead counties. Recent model trends show widespread amounts of 1 to 3 inches of rainfall in these areas, with up to 3 inches along the Continental Divide, including over Glacier National Park. There is even a low probability of 4 inches or more along the higher terrain near the Divide, including the Mission, Swan and Flathead Ranges. For the most part, this is expected to be a beneficial rainfall event. However, locations that receive the higher end totals may see rapid rises on small streams and creek, rock and debris slides onto roads, and minor flooding in poor drainage areas. Some model trends indicate that the low may be slower to exit the region, possibly lingering rainfall into Tuesday. It does look like a general drying trend will follow later Tuesday into mid week though a generally northwest flow aloft may allow for continued periods of afternoon showers. Warming will also occur, but it will likely only be to near normal for this time of year. Lingering boundary-layer moisture will continue to support overnight and early morning valley fog and low stratus. && .AVIATION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across western Montana this afternoon and evening and could impact KMSO and KHRF. Main threats will be brief heavy rain, wind gusts to 30 kts and possibly some small hail. Expect generally weak winds at the terminals. Persistent light to moderate rain showers are expected to develop overnight through Sunday morning impacting KGPI, KMSO KHRF and possibly KBTM. Widespread obscurations of the terrain are anticipated due to lowered ceilings. More scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible on Sunday afternoon. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Sunday for East Beaverhead. ID...None. && $$

339 FXUS65 KBOI 060802 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 202 AM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cold front with widespread showers, isolated thunderstorms, and gusty winds, coming in from the west late today and tonight. - Breezy and cooler Monday, with showers continuing in the north, but becoming sunny in the south. - Warmer and drier Tuesday through Thursday. - Windy and cooler with showers Friday. - Sunny and warmer next weekend. && .SHORT TERM /Through Tuesday Night/... An upper low is still centered on the OR coast as it has been since Thursday, and like the last two nights a band of showers and isolated thunderstorms has set up from nw MT through the Boise Mountains in ID to north-central NV. As was the case then, tonight`s band should weaken overnight with showers ending from south to north before sunrise. But unlike the past two nights, showers have increased in western and central OR, and these should continue as the upper low moves inland today. A surface cold front will take shape in eastern OR this afternoon with a band of showers and thunderstorms developing along and just west of it. The front is forecast to move across the OR/ID border around 5 PM MDT, through the Treasure Valley 5 PM to 8 PM, and Jerome and Twin Falls around 10 PM. In southwest Idaho the front and wind shift will arrive first, then the showers. Showers will decrease as the front continues eastward across the Snake Basin, but frontal winds look stronger east of BOI with gusts 40 to 50 mph and local blowing dust in the Magic Valley. On the other hand, showers will increase in central Idaho along and behind the front this evening, with isolated thunderstorms and locally heavy rain in Valley and Boise Counties. The front will exit our CWA overnight but the upper low and showers will continue in the central Idaho mountains Monday. Snow level will dip only to 8000 feet Monday so snow will not be an issue. Total rainfall today through Monday will be .25 to .50 inch in Valley County/ ID, .10 to .20 inch in other northern areas and in southern mountains, and less than .10 inch in southern valleys. These amounts are less than forecast yesterday. Southern areas will become sunny on Monday with breezy west winds, and all areas will be at least 10 degrees cooler than today. Latest models show a secondary upper low in our northern zones Monday night. This low will maintain clouds in northern zones and breezy west winds in southern zones through Monday night. Tuesday finally looks sunny and warmer in all areas as the secondary low moves out. && .LONG TERM /Wednesday through Sunday/... Warmer and drier Wednesday and Thursday as weak high pressure aloft rebuilds over the interior western US. Moisture from westward-moving hurricanes in the Pacific subtropics should stay well to our south. The next upper trough is forecast in from BC Thursday night and Friday, which is earlier than forecast yesterday. As the trough comes closer, southwesterly flow aloft may tap into tropical moisture and moisten the cold front now expected in our CWA early Friday. Then after brief cooling Friday, next weekend looks sunny and warmer again as an upper ridge builds over the western states. && .AVIATION /06Z Sunday through Monday/... Issued 1211 AM MDT SUN SEP 6 2026 Generally VFR. Patchy mountain-valley fog/low stratus in the AM. Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms moving SW to NE over southwest Idaho through morning. Then, numerous showers and thunderstorms moving into E Oregon Sunday afternoon, and into SW Idaho by evening. MVFR in local heavy rain, and gusty outflows with storms. Surface winds: variable up to 10 kt, then SW-NW 5-15 kt with gusts to 20-30 kt Sunday afternoon/eve. Except 35-45 kt around KMUO in the evening. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: S-SW 10-30 kt. KBOI...VFR with temporary light rain showers between Sun/06Z-09Z. Then, a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday evening. Surface winds: NW 5-10 kt, then variable or light SE overnight and morning.&& && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....LC AVIATION.....SH

983 FXUS65 KLKN 052117 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 217 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Breezy conditions mainly across central Nevada this afternoon and early evening * At or just below average temperatures will continue through the next several days * Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible Sunday afternoon and evening && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Friday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Nevada remains under southwesterly flow aloft as a large upper level trough over coastal Oregon tried to push against the subtropical upper level ridge over the southern plains. This upper trough will slowly push through the Pacific NW and into the inter-mountain west through Wednesday. The main impact from this trough will be from the winds as the pressure gradient helps drive breezy conditions across eastern and central Nevada as SW winds rise during the afternoons to 15 to 25 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH possible. Winds father west will be slightly lighter at 10 to 20 MPH with gust up to 30 MPH possible. The next impacts from this system will be to keep temperature on the cool side through Monday with high in the mid to upper 70s, before a quick warm-up Tuesday and Wednesday get temperatures back into the upper 80s for Late week into the start of the following weekend as the upper trough departs and the upper ridge tries to shift back west. Models which were once hopeful for precipitation thanks to moisture from Hurricane Marie which will be well of shore of the Baja Peninsula, but in line with the SW flow aloft. Have kept trending drier as any moisture from Marie looks to stay across southern Nevada this week. As for the trough, the best moisture looks to stay north into Oregon and Idaho. Overall that leave a low chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday across far northern Nevada. While another low chance for showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible for SE White Pine county with a few storms reaching as far north as the Ruby Mountains. Chances for storms and showers looks to remain between 10% and 30% mainly during the afternoon and evening hours Sunday. The next chance of showers or storms looks to be Thursday through Friday as more moisture from Marie rides along the periphery of the upper ridge which will be building back toward the southwest at this time. After Friday Model diverge significantly as the upper pattern looks to return to a typical summer type upper ridging, or the possibility of a second upper trough pushing through the Pacific NW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence cooler than normal temperatures continuing through Tuesday. There is high confidence in a quick warming trend Wednesday through Friday as the upper trough lifts NE away from Nevada. There is moderate confidence in a 10% to 30% chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening for eastern Elko and White Pine Counties. There is moderate confidence in a 10% to 30% chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms for northern Humboldt and northern Elko Counties Sunday afternoon. There is low confidence for the long range forecast as model solutions show a high degree of divergence for the upper pattern after Friday. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions look to be the primary flight conditions through Sunday evening. Upper trough to our northwest will act to tighten the pressure gradient through Monday as southwest winds for KTPH, KELY, KENV, and KEKO will be breezy at 15 to 25 KT with gust up to 35 KT possible. KWMC, and KBAM will sight slightly lighter W to SW winds at 10 to 20 KT with a few gust up to 30 KT possible. && .FIRE WEATHER... Fire weather conditions look to remain low to Elevate for the next several days as cool temperatures and higher RH values offset breezy W to SW winds. An upper level storm system will push through the Pacific NW Through Tuesday will bring stronger SW winds of 10 to 25 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH through Monday, but will keep cooler than normal temperatures and bring a low chance for showers and a few thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening for far northern and eastern Nevada. After Wednesday the upper trough lifts NE allowing for warmer temperatures to quickly reach back above normal into the upper 80s Wednesday through Friday, however another low chance for showers and storms will accompany the warm up for Thursday and Friday afternoons. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...98 AVIATION...98 FIRE WEATHER...98