836 FXUS66 KSEW 232111 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 211 PM PDT Sat May 23 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather will continue tonight through Sunday, with cool/cloudy mornings giving way to afternoon sun. A low pressure system on Monday will bring widespread rain and breezy conditions, with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Unsettled conditions continue into Tuesday, with drier and warmer weather possible by midweek. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Stratus is continuing to slowly thin out and scatter across western Washington. The coast is starting to clear, but clouds will be slower to give way through the Puget Sound interior where the layer remains the thickest. Once the afternoon sun arrive, expect highs to rise into the mid to upper 60s, with areas with earlier clearing potentially reaching near 70. A similar pattern is expected on Sunday with stratus rebuilding, giving way to afternoon sun. Highs again in the upper 60s and low 70s given a slightly earlier clearing time forecast. The weather will become active on Monday as a low pressure system approaches and moves across the area. Rain will begin to arrive at the coast early Monday morning, slowly spreading into the interior though the morning. Winds will also begin to increase, peaking late morning/early afternoon as the front moves through. Gusts for most will likely be in the 20 to 30 mph, but locations along the coast and through the north interior may see gusts up to 35 to 40 mph. These winds will not produce much in the way of widespread impacts, but unsecured/temporary items outside such as tends may be impacted. Rain will devolve into more scattered showers behind the front and persist through the afternoon and evening. With the upper level low not far to the west, that will give some upper level support for a few isolated to scattered (15-20%) thunderstorms in the afternoon. Temperatures will be much cooler, down into the upper 50s to low 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Showers and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms look to continue into Tuesday as the system continues to depart. Chances for thunder are again in the 15-20% Tuesday afternoon, through more so over the interior areas than along the coast. On the coast, however, waves will increase late Monday into Tuesday, which may bring high surf conditions with waves reaching up to 15 ft before slowly easing throughout the day. The upper level trough continues to dig into the southwestern U.S., which will allow for warmer and drier conditions to return to the area, with highs climbing back into upper 60s and low 70s. Models are showing the potential for another trough to move into the area late next week, which may bring the potential for slightly cooler weather and chances for scattered showers. Long period swell arriving to the coast on Thursday may pose a threat to beachgoers with significant wave runup possible. 62 && .AVIATION... Onshore flow will continue in the low levels through the TAF period, with northwesterly flow aloft becoming more westerly into Sunday. Latest satellite imagery shows stratus has largely scattered along the coast, but continues to linger across portions of the interior this afternoon. Conditions are primarily MVFR for terminals in stratus and VFR for terminals elsewhere. Stratus is expected to continue to lift and scatter over the next few hours for a more widespread return to VFR ceilings by mid-afternoon. Another round of stratus is likely to push into the interior between 10-12Z on Sunday. Ceilings will likely lower to MVFR for a few hours in the morning, before improving back to VFR by 18-19Z. Surface winds remain out of the west/ southwest for KBLI, KCLM, and KHQM and have been gusty at times between 15-25 kt. Surface winds may briefly become northerly for central Puget Sound terminals this evening, though will remain light at 6 kt or less, before shifting back to the south late tonight into early Sunday. KSEA...MVFR conditions with stratus slowly lifting and scattering at the terminal this afternoon for a return to VFR conditions between 22-23Z. Winds remain out of the southwest at 5-8 kt this and may briefly switch to the north this evening between 03-06Z. Winds will likely remain light at 6 kt or less, before shifting back to the south by early Sunday. Another round of stratus will likely move into the terminal between 10-12Z Sunday, with probabilistic guidance indicating a 30 percent chance of ceilings lowering to MVFR by 12Z. Expect stratus to scatter by 18Z for a return to VFR. Winds will be out of the south, increasing to 6-9 kt Sunday afternoon. 14 && .MARINE... Surface high pressure well offshore will result in continued onshore flow through the weekend. A strong westerly push is expected through the Strait of Juan de Fuca this evening, for which a Gale Warning will remain in effect for the central and eastern portions of the Strait through late tonight. This will also push into Admiralty Inlet, for which a Small Craft Advisory will continue through late tonight as well. Winds will ease Sunday as high pressure weakens. A low pressure system will approach and move through the area waters on Monday which will bring stronger southwesterly winds. Winds will increase to SCA level early Monday morning through the coastal waters, later in the morning through Puget Sound up into the East Strait and Northern Inland Waters. Winds will switch to more west/southwesterly following the frontal passage mid-day, but winds will not ease until late in the day. High pressure then rebuilds Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing back the previous regime of Small Craft Advisory winds and steep seas in the outermost coastal waters. Seas remain steep, especially through the outer coastal waters, with waves 6-10 ft with a dominant period of around 8 seconds. Seas will ease to around 5-7 ft Sunday before waves increase on Monday as the low moves through the area. Waves peak Tuesday morning at around 14 to 16 ft before slowly easing throughout the day to around 8 to 10 ft. Long period swell looks to arrive Thursday, which pushes seas up to 8 to 12 ft. 62 && .HYDROLOGY... The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the start of the next rainy season; it will only be updated during this time as needed. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Gale Warning until 5 AM PDT Sunday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Sunday for Admiralty Inlet. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Sunday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm. && $$

674 FXUS66 KPQR 232028 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 128 PM PDT Sat May 23 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry weather continues through Sunday under high pressure, with relatively cooler coastal conditions where marine clouds linger. A notable pattern change arrives late Sunday night/early Monday morning, which will bring widespread rain, breezier winds, and a notable cool-down. Showers and a few thunderstorms remain possible into Tuesday, with a warming and drying trend expected through the end of next week. && .DISCUSSION...Tonight through Friday...Marine clouds expected to return tonight as onshore flow will continue under an upper level high pressure system. Through Sunday, expect warm and dry conditions to continue as the overall synoptic setup remains rather static. Daytime highs look to be the warmest for the week on Sunday with inland valleys in the upper 70s to lower 80s, while coastal highs stay about 10-20 degrees cooler, mainly low 60s to low 70s. The Cascades and foothills should land between those two regimes, with daytime highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s. It should be noted that the expansive marine stratus this morning is not expected to be as widespread tonight. However, if the reach and persistence of marine stratus is similar or greater than today, then that could easily keep daytime highs 5-10 degrees cooler than the current forecast. Overall, precipitation remains unlikely through Sunday evening, but could see some "aggressive drizzle" along the coast at times. Late Sunday night into Monday, a significant pattern change is expected for the Pac NW as a broad, Gulf of Alaska low dives southeastward into the region. This will bring widespread rain and cloud cover across the CWA for Memorial Day. Guidance continues to support 24-hour rainfall totals (roughly 5 AM Monday to 5 AM Tuesday) generally in the 0.25 to 1.00 inch range, with the highest totals favored along the coast, Coast Range, and Cascades. Probabilities for at least 0.25 inch are 60-90%, while the chances of 0.50 inch or more drop to around 5-35% in the Willamette Valley but remain much higher around 70-90% for the coast/Coast Range/Cascades. There is also a corridor from Newport north toward Seaside where probabilities for 1.00 inch or more reach roughly 30-50%. In addition to the widespread rain, Monday looks breezy. Current probabilities favor gusts over 25 mph across much of the forecast areas (90-99%), with gusts over 30 mph more likely along the coast (70-90%) than inland (40-60%). Gusts of 35 mph or greater remain a low for inland locations (5-20%) but are more probable along the coast (35-55%). While not currently forecasting wind advisory level, these speeds could still create issues for canopies, tents, and other unsecured gear. Wind Advisory conditions for inland locations are as follows: Sustained Winds of 30-39 mph for durations of 1 hour or longer. OR Frequent Gusts of 45-57 mph for any duration. We do not issue Wind Advisories for the coast. By Tuesday, the low continues southeast with showers lingering along with a southerly flow pattern. This southerly flow pattern,is much more favorable for thunderstorm development and as such, there is a 15-20% chance for thunderstorms across the Willamette Valley and the Cascades starting late Tuesday morning/early Tuesday afternoon. For the middle of the week, the forecast trends towards warmer and drier weather as weak high pressure/zonal flow develops, though temperatures remain on the cool side compared to the weekend warm spell. /42~12 On a slightly personal note, with Monday being Memorial Day, it is time to remember those who served that are no longer with us. I want to remind everyone that if you are a fellow veteran or know a veteran that needs help, you can always call the VA Crisis Line by dialing 988 and pressing 1 or text 838255 24/7/365. We must take care of and look out those who stood besides us, who came before us and who will follow in our footsteps. Semper Fi. /42 && .AVIATION...At 2030z Sat, conditions have improved to VFR everywhere except for KAST. There`s a 25-35% chance that the marine stratus never dissipates for the entire TAF period at KAST, but if it does, it should by 21-23z Sat. Light north to northwest winds less than 8 kts across inland areas will increase to 8-12 kts through the late afternoon and evening hours for locations north of KAST. Along the coast, winds are already increasing. Expect sustained winds around 8-12 kt with gusts up to 20-25 kts. Expecting winds to decrease around 04-08z Sun. As winds decrease, they are expected to shift slightly northeast south of KAST, which guidance indicates will limit the redevelopment of marine stratus. The exception is around and north of KAST where winds will remain more northwesterly, and if stratus does dissipate this afternoon, then redevelopment is likely by 09-12z Sun. Winds remain light and northerly on Sunday, shift back northwesterly along the coast. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions expected through the 00z TAF period. Northwesterly winds less than 8 kts increase to 8-12 kts with gusts up to 18 kts around 23z Sat - 01z Sun, decreasing by 06z Sun. Winds remain light and northerly Sunday. -03 && .MARINE...North winds continue across the waters this afternoon into Sunday, breezy with gusts up to 25 kts this afternoon and evening for locations south of Cape Falcon. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through 5 AM Sunday for these locations. Seas will be around 5 to 8 feet through Sunday night. A frontal system will impact the waters Monday into Tuesday. Winds turn westerly and increase early Monday morning as the front approaches and moves through the waters. Latest guidance indicates widespread wind gusts up to 25-30 kts, strongest north of Cape Foulweather, with a 35-50% chance of gale force wind gusts, mainly isolated and right along the frontal passage from 1 AM to 11 AM Monday. Because of this, do not have confidence at this time to issue a Gale Watch. Waves are forecast to rise behind the frontal passage Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. There`s high confidence (90+% chance) of significant wave heights exceeding 13 feet. Additionally there`s around a 25% chance significant wave heights could reach 18-19 feet for locations 20 nm and beyond west of the coast, and there`s around a 10% chance they could rise to 20 feet for locations 30 nm and beyond west of the coast. Waves forecast to decrease through Tuesday afternoon to around 10-12 feet. -03 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ252-253-272- 273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

709 FXUS66 KMFR 232326 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 426 PM PDT Sat May 23 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .DISCUSSION... Key Points: * Hot and dry conditions continue through the weekend. * Thunderstorm chances (10-20%) exist near central Siskiyou County through southern Lake County. * Sunday rain/thunderstorm chances focus on central and southern Siskiyou County. * The next trough arrives Monday afternoon, bringing a chance of rain. * Monday will have strong westerly winds and 10-20% RH east of the Cascades. There are more cumulus clouds building in Northern California and east of the Cascades. A 15-25% of showers in southern and eastern Siskiyou County up through southern Lake County this afternoon. A few showers have been developing and moving east in southern Lake County near Valley Falls. In southern and eastern Siskiyou County there is a 10-20% chance for a thunderstorm to develop. Forecast rainfall totals are less than 0.05" in the aforementioned areas, with the exception of central Siskiyou County forecasting closer to 0.10". Temperatures will warm to the 60s/low 70s at the coast, 80s in the west side, and 70s/low 80s for east of the Cascades, and these will be similar tomorrow. There is a 10-20% chance for thunderstorms in central Siskiyou County tomorrow afternoon. If you`re liking the ~10-15 degree above normal temperatures, enjoy it while you can because a cooldown will start the next work week. Rain chances will also return to more of Southern Oregon and Northern California. The majority of clusters are still supporting that the upper low will move through Oregon Monday afternoon/evening. As the rain continues pushing inland, there is a 50-70% probability to see at least 0.20 inches between 11 PM Sunday- 11 PM Monday in Coos and Curry counties. Forecast CAPEs are not highlighting our area Monday, but values increase Tuesday afternoon, especially east of the Cascades. Gusty winds will begin later Monday morning and will continue through the late evening. Forecast 700 mb winds are near the 45-50 mph mark, resulting in 20-30 mph surface sustained winds in the afternoon during peak mixing. Probabilities for wind gusts to reach 45 mph Monday for portions of Lake and Modoc counties are nearing 40- 60% Monday afternoon. However, portions of southern Lake County into the Warner Mountains through Modoc County have a 60-80% probability for gusts of 45 mph, so this will be monitored in case there is a need for a Wind Advisory. In the Rogue and Shasta valleys, winds are forecast to reach 20-25 mph with gusts in the 30-40 mph range. As stated above the rain will come later Monday, but the winds will impactful for afternoon Memorial Day activities. Getting back to the temperatures, they will return to near normal by Monday before another drop brings them to 10-15 degrees below normal Tuesday (50s/low 60s). Showers remain Tuesday, and this will focus on locations west of the Cascades in Douglas and Coos counties. Although the rain will come to an end, the low will stall in the area, leaving us with cloudier skies and below normal temps. For now, the track will be to move the low south Thursday, and this will rebound temperatures to normal or warmer. -Hermansen && .AVIATION...24/00Z TAFS Cumulus build ups are expected again this afternoon and early evening, with isolated showers and thunderstorms from around the Scott and Shasta valleys in Siskiyou County east-northeastward into southern portions of Klamath and Lake counties, and also over the Warner Mountains of eastern Modoc County. Later, from around 04Z through 17Z Sunday morning, expect areas of IFR/LIFR to redevelop along the coast, mainly from Cape Blanco northward and from Gold Beach southward. Cumulus build ups and isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected again in western/central Siskiyou County Sunday afternoon. && .MARINE...Updated 115 PM PDT Saturday, May 23, 2026...A thermal trough will continue to bring gusty north winds and steep seas through Sunday morning. Winds will be strongest this afternoon and evening. Seas may briefly become very steep this afternoon and evening from Port Orford to Pistol River. But, winds near shore to the south of Brookings will be weak today and become southerly. The south winds will extend to Cape Blanco Sunday, and across the waters with improving conditions Sunday night. A cold front will move through the waters on Memorial Day bringing rain and increasing seas. Seas are likely to become steep again on Monday afternoon, with the highest probability, strongest south winds expected to occur north of Cape Blanco. Swell dominated seas are expected to reach a peak on Tuesday at around 13 to 16 ft at 14 seconds. High pressure offshore and lingering low pressure inland are likely to bring increasing north winds on Wednesday with gales possible south of Port Orford. Gusty north winds are likely to continue steep to very steep seas Wednesday night into Thursday while a long period west-northwest swell builds. && .FIRE WEATHER...Updated 215 PM PDT Saturday, May 23, 2026...Most areas in Southern Oregon and Northern California will remain dry through the weekend, and recent min RHs in the Rogue Valley, Northern California and east of the Cascades have been in the 15-25% range. There is an elevated threat for fire weather conditions in the coming days. Monday will bring the highest threat with stronger winds ahead of a cold front. Sustained southwest/west winds east of the Cascades and in the Shasta Valley will be in the 20-25 kt range. As it stands, there is a 40-60% probability to see gusts reach 45 mph and this increases to 60-80% near Summer Lake, Lakeview and south near the Warner Mountains. There is more agreement that the cold front will arrive at the coast Monday afternoon, leaving an opportunity for peak heating and gusty winds to combine in these eastern locations. However, the latest check on fuel conditions from fire agencies hold areas in the low to moderate category. Precautionary actions should continue, especially during this higher threat Monday. -Hermansen && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$

315 FXUS66 KEKA 232223 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 323 PM PDT Sat May 23 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Stratus remains over the coastal areas as eddies offshore recirculate flow back to the shoreline. More areas will clear out Sunday with similar high temperatures inland. An upper level low approaches the area Monday increasing the chances for light rain and cooler temperatures with gusty winds. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler temperatures near the coast with higher temperatures inland Sunday, similar conditions to Saturday with more scattering of stratus for the near coastal regions. - Pop up cumulus from a slightly convective set up, mostly thermally driven though moisture is present. Caution for thunder though CAPE is modest Sunday. - An approaching upper level low will bring gusty winds and light precipitation to Del Norte and northern Humboldt Monday. .DISCUSSION...Returning stratus is persistent thanks to the coastal eddies recirculating surface flow back into the lower elevation coastal areas. Stratus is retreating from the Eel river and Van Duzen areas inland as of 19z. Less coastal stratus coverage is expected Sunday with more clearing than the previous few days. Sunday evening into Monday early morning will fill in as the next low pressure system approaches. For the next few days there will be a more temperate and cooler outlook although convective potential does exist. Warmer temperatures inland with cooler environmental air to contrast could give some dynamic parcel buoyancy as terrain retains and releases heat in the late afternoons and early evenings. A few convective cells could pop up over eastern Humboldt, Trinity, and the Yolla Bolly district in western Mendocino this evening and Sunday. HREF shows CAPE values in the 800-900 j/kg east of the 124 longitude from Del Norte down to Mendocino county and especially along the mountainous areas of the CWA border with Siskiyou. In addition to the thermal differential, a deep upper level low pressure system is approaching from the northwest and will likely bare down on the northernmost areas of the CWA by Monday with light precipitation in Del Norte and Humboldt Monday evening. Gusty winds up to 40-45mph near the trinity horn seem to be converging in Siskiyou on Monday but there is hardly any CAPE. Tuesday there could be instability on the back side of the front. Stay tuned to get the latest on upcoming weather. (weather.gov/eka/) .Safety Reminder...Summertime temperatures inland can be deceptive when partaking in water activities. River water flow is too fast and too cold this time of year to risk for safety. It is advised that cold water paralysis and shock are hazardous during the early summer months for our area. /EYS && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFs)...Stratus has persisted across the coastal areas with IFR ceilings being observed. IFR to MVFR ceilings are likely this afternoon, with some brief clearing possible. Stratus will likely return again this evening and overnight. The deep marine layer and prevailing south winds in UKI will likely support stratus to return again overnight, with IFR to MVFR conditions expected. Outside the coast, stratus will likely lift and scatter by the early afternoon. JB && .MARINE...Strong northerly winds continue to ease and are mostly constrained to the outer waters, especially north of Cape Mendocino in the lee of Cape Blanco. Seas also ease as winds subside with steep seas mostly constrained to the outer waters through this evening. Winds and seas continue to ease Sunday and Monday, with generally light south winds expected. Winds and seas increase again Monday night through next week behind a weak cold front. The forecast for these winds shows more NW winds instead of the N winds that were present all last week. Expect these to build substantially through the week, especially for the southern outer waters where there is an 80-100% probability of gale force winds developing by Tuesday. A NW swell this weekend will mix with fresh NW short period seas making a relatively chaotic sea state as combined sea heights build up to 16ft through the coming week. DS/JB && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ470. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

794 FXUS66 KMTR 231740 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1040 AM PDT Sat May 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1200 AM PDT Sat May 23 2026 - Diurnally driven onshore winds during the afternoon and early evening through the early part of next week - Gradual cooling trend begins today with seasonal temperatures for the upcoming weekend and cooler temperatures early next week, followed by warming into the mid week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1028 AM PDT Sat May 23 2026 (This afternoon through Sunday) Another deep marine layer setup with plenty of cloud cover pushing inland this morning. The passing weak low pressure will keep stratus mixing around the coast, but the areas inland will see the lower clouds erode quickly in the sun. The North Bay looks to keep cloud cover longer than previous days due to this low, leading to a delayed warm up for the interior valleys and overall cooler conditions. Highs today will range from the 50 along the coast, 60s for areas more inland, 70s for the more interior areas, and into the lower 80s for the far interior. This will be coupled with a fair amount of humidity retention during the day, and great recoveries overnight. The deep marine layer and more of and inland push of the marine air will keep most of the overnight lows in the 50s, with only the far interior falling into the 40s. Sunday will offer largely similar conditions, with slightly earlier clearing times for that inland North Bay cloud cover. Overall high temperatures will be slightly cooler, but only by a few degrees. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1028 AM PDT Sat May 23 2026 (Sunday night through next Friday) The marine layer deepens into Sunday night and will push even farther inland by Memorial Day, leading to widespread cloud cover. This will also cause slower clearing for the interior, and the potential for little to no clearing along the coast. Expect cool coastal conditions under cloudy skies with highs in the 50s. Then the areas slightly inland will hover around the mid to lower 60s, and the far interior will be in the 70s. Only a few portions of the far interior look to break 80. The next pattern change looks to arrive Tuesday with a low pressure moving down the coast. Longer models have slight disagreements on the track of this low, and unfortunately those differences affect the Bay Area a good amount. If this low pushing inland to the north of the Bay Area, dry off shore flow will cause a jump up in temperatures, not to hazardous levels, but a notable increase. If the low focuses over the SF Bay, chances for drizzle along with continued cooling. The there`s a chance the low builds far inland and becomes a cut-off low, giving a uniform, yet weaker, offshore flow. The current forecast follows the first resolution listed, leading to a warmer Tuesday for the Bay Area, but continued cooling for areas to the south. This will be followed by a warming and drying trend for the rest of the work week. Luckily, after that initial jump in temperatures, the rest of the warming trend looks to be gradual. But much can change in the mid to long term forecast, so be sure to keep checking in! && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1040 AM PDT Sat May 23 2026 MVFR-VFR during the 18z TAFs, with the highest probability of VFR during the afternoon and early evening. A few night and morning patches of light coastal drizzle or sprinkles are possible. Vicinity of SFO...VFR for the remainder of today, stratus /MVFR/ returns 11z-17z Sunday. VFR late Sunday morning and afternoon. Southwest wind 7 to 14 knots SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus /MVFR/ mixing out to VFR during the afternoon. Stratus /MVFR/ returns tonight and Sunday morning. West to northwest winds 5 to 10 knots except afternoon and evening winds 10 to 20 knots in the Salinas Valley. && .MARINE... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 1028 AM PDT Sat May 23 2026 Northerly winds will gradually decrease this morning over the northern outer waters allowing rough seas to gradually subside as well. Elsewhere, west to southwesterly winds will remain light to gentle with moderate wave heights. Seas abate to moderate heights by midday today and then hold through early Tuesday morning. An incoming trough is set to approach our waters late Monday night, bringing strong northwesterly winds and building rough seas. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Murdock LONG TERM....Murdock AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

581 FXUS66 KOTX 232324 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 424 PM PDT Sat May 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry, warm, and breezy through the Cascade gaps into central Washington Saturday afternoon and evening. Elevated threat for rapid spread of grass fires for these areas through 8PM this evening. - A cold front on Monday will bring a 10 percent chance for thunderstorms in extreme eastern Washington and up to a 25 percent chance in the Idaho Panhandle for the late afternoon and evening hours. A few storms may become strong near to and south and east of Pullman/Moscow area. - There is a growing threat for thunderstorms Thursday and Friday next week with a 20-30 percent chance of being widely scattered across the region. Some thunderstorms may be strong with a risk for hail, gusty outflow winds, and heavy downpours. && .SYNOPSIS... Dry conditions with above normal temperatures will continue through the weekend. Winds will be gusty through the Cascade gaps into the western Columbia Basin Saturday. A cold front on Monday will bring breezy to windy conditions late in the day. The cold front will also bring showers with a chance for thunderstorms especially in the Idaho Panhandle. Cooler temperatures Tuesday into Wednesday. Widely scattered showers with the potential for Thunderstorms Thursday into Friday. && .DISCUSSION... This afternoon through Monday night: A tight cross Cascade gradient is setting up today due in large part to a persistent marine layer keeping low clouds in place over the western portion of the state. The clouds are keeping temperatures down while temperatures in eastern Washington are warming into the low 80s with just some high thin cirrus clouds to filter out just a small fraction of the solar radiation. The gradient from Seattle to Wenatchee stands at 10 mb at 2PM today. That is a strong gradient and we`re already seeing conditions getting breezy through the Cascade gaps early this afternoon. Momentum mixing with 850 mb winds around 20-25 mph is also resulting in a breezy day across the Columbia Basin into extreme eastern Washington including across the Palouse, Spokane Area and into more exposed valleys across the Northeast Mountains. Winds across extreme eastern Washington are expected to remain steady through the rest of the day; it`s a different story across the Wenatchee Area, on the Waterville Plateau, and into the western portion of the Columbia Basin where the westerly gradient across the Cascades is expected to strengthen further along with better mixing potential in the late afternoon transfers down higher westerly momentum air with wind gusts increasing to around 25-30 mph, and locally as strong as 30-35 mph. The concern with these winds will be if any grass fires are started as relative humidity will be low and the grasses across these areas are getting more and more receptive to fire spread. Looking further out into the Pacific Ocean, and more specifically in the north Pacific south of the Aleutian Islands, is a robust shortwave trough of lower pressure taking shape. This shortwave is being fueled by a 150 kt upstream upper level jet streak. The next 36 hours will result in this shortwave digging and deepening over the Gulf of Alaska. Winds will respond by backing in time and this will result in a decreasing westerly component. As a result, we will see less in the way of wind on Sunday, still a bit breezy, but not to the magnitude as today, especially with those Cascade gap winds. In addition, the marine layer doesn`t look to persist as long tomorrow, and our temperatures across eastern Washington actually cool a few degrees or so, which means the thermal gradient that fuels the Cascade gap winds will be less as well. Monday afternoon/evening will be a period to watch out for as the now deep shortwave trough begins to make its entrance into the Inland Northwest. A mixed bag of potential threats will accompany the cold front passage. (1) Winds will continue to back as the trough approaches and this will bring warmer more moist air into the region. High temperatures in Lewiston-Calrkston Valley for example are expected to be in the upper 80s with dew points at least in the mid 40s if not upper 40s to near 50 degrees. Warm, moist lower levels with the incoming trough increases the threat for convection and thunderstorms. The upper level trough comes in with a neutral tilt to it (i.e. neither negatively tilted nor positively tilted) and the absence of a negative tilt will limit the synoptic scale dynamics a bit. Best forcing will come as the cold front arrives around late afternoon/early evening. The timing of the front will be favorable for tapping into the peak heating of the day and the 12Z deterministic guidance suggests surface based CAPE values north of 1,000 J/kg between Pullman/Moscow to the southern Idaho Panhandle and extending northeastward into western Montana. This area will also have 40+ kts of 0-6 km bulk shear that may be enough to result in some stronger thunderstorms if ingredients line up. A stronger thunderstorm scenario would bring a threat for hail (potentially large but only a 5% chance as of now), and strong outflow winds that may be damaging at 10-15% chance for that to come to fruition. (2) Good cold air advection with the cold front along with rain cooled air with developing showers on the front will bring a burst of westerly winds that will see the potential for gusts up to 40 mph. This is in the absence of convective enhanced wind gusts with thunderstorms. There is a 40-80% chance of those wind gusts eclipsing 40 mph across the exposed areas of the Columbia Basin stretching from the Wenatchee Area to Spokane West Plains, Palouse, and Lewiston-Clarkston Valley. Probabilities decrease to around 10-40% for these same areas seeing 50+ mph wind gusts. Stronger winds will likely come just with the frontal passage within a span of 2-4 hours. These winds will be at least approaching our criteria for a wind advisory, but will consider additional update model guidance before making that decision as the event approaches. (3) Then in the very low confidence, but potentially high impact category would be seeing patchy blowing dust with the winds. I am taking into consideration that we`ve had some rain within the past 1-2 weeks. Winds will be marginal for them to blow top soil to produce blowing dust. Showers would arrive within a couple of hours as winds hit those peak intensities, so any blowing dust is expected to be short-lived. It`s not completely out of the question, my confidence is too low to mention in the forecast at this time. Other considerations with this cold front will be the rain showers. Showers are not expected to bring much impacts as they won`t be considered to be heavy. The exception will be the potential for heavy downpours with thunderstorms, but even these will be moving quickly enough not to be much of a threat for flooding impacts. Colder temperatures behind the front will make for a chilly time in the backcountry for anyone looking to be out camping, and may also see a little snow in the Cascades above 4,000 feet. Tuesday through Saturday: The upper level trough moves onshore and will form a closed low pressure circulation over Oregon that migrates into Nevada by Wednesday. We remain unsettled with showers at times, especially for the daytime hours with diurnal forced convection. Surface temperatures will be much cooler though compared to Sunday into Monday with highs Tuesday only in the 60s. Temperatures do warm up a bit more over central Washington back into the 70s. Model ensembles are coming into good agreement with the position of the low for Thursday into Friday that becomes cut off from the storm track by this time. There are subtle differences, but roughly 60% of the ensembles has the low south enough to allow substantial warming of the low levels, but close enough to draw in moisture from the east. The source of this moisture by Thursday into Friday is a bit unusual in that its source region will be from the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic. This is coming from warmer waters compared to the eastern Pacific, and this would mean a potentially juicy air mass with P-Wats near 200% of normal. Some model guidance suggests the potential for near 2,000 J/kg of surface based CAPE for Thursday and Friday. Weak steering flow may result in slow moving and very wet thunderstorms. This is the kind of set up that introduces the potential for flash flooding. Little in the way of bulk shear, but a strongly unstable atmosphere could overcome the lack of shear for short-lived strong to severe thunderstorms as well. We are still a ways out to put much stock in impacts for thunderstorms, but definitely a period for us to keep our eye on. /SVH && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFs: VFR conditions will continue through period, with some afternoon cumulus and passing higher clouds. There is a slight chance for a few showers over far northeast WA and north ID this evening, largely before sunset. Winds will remain breeze this evening with gusts near 15-30kts, decreasing after sunset. Winds will become gusty again Sunday after 18-20Z with gusts of 15-25kts. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in continued VFR conditions. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 51 77 50 80 45 63 / 0 0 0 0 50 20 Coeur d`Alene 50 75 49 79 47 61 / 0 0 0 0 50 20 Pullman 48 74 48 80 43 57 / 0 0 0 0 40 30 Lewiston 52 83 52 87 50 62 / 0 0 0 0 30 40 Colville 44 79 44 79 41 66 / 10 0 0 0 60 30 Sandpoint 48 75 47 78 46 61 / 10 0 0 0 50 20 Kellogg 49 76 48 84 46 60 / 0 0 0 0 40 40 Moses Lake 49 82 49 80 43 68 / 0 0 0 0 20 10 Wenatchee 55 80 55 76 47 67 / 0 0 0 0 20 20 Omak 52 80 52 77 45 68 / 0 0 0 10 50 50 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

776 FXUS66 KPDT 232329 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 429 PM PDT Sat May 23 2026 .Updated Aviation Discussion. .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Dry and warm conditions will persist through the weekend 2. Breezy to windy through the gaps Saturday and again Monday 3. Pattern shift Monday will bring chances mountain showers becoming more widespread Tuesday onwards && .DISCUSSION... Current satellite shows mostly clear skies over the vast majority of the region with some fair weather cumulus accumulating over the ridgelines of some of the mountains. Today will be the hottest day of the week with 80-90% of the NBM raw ensembles showing the majority of the region in the low to mid 80s with pockets of high 80s in the Basin. By Sunday temperatures will be in the upper 70s low 80s with 70-90% probabilities. In office difference calculations from climate shows temperatures to be 10-15 degrees above normal by today and Sunday. As mentioned above, the breakdown of the ridge from northwest flow to westerly flow will cause a slight increase in the winds, especially through the mountains gap areas. With the westerly or zonal flow, winds will be breezy with models showing sustained winds speeds nearing 20 mph with gusts near 30 mph with 80-90% of the NBM raw ensembles in agreement. The locations of the winds will primarily be through the mountain gaps of the Gorge and Kittitas Valley with 50-70% in agreement that the southern foothills of the Blues will see these winds as well. There will be a brief settling of the wind ahead of the next system that will be rolling through on Monday. Winds will then shift to the southwest as the upper level trough/low makes its way into the region. As the front moves inland, models and in house calculations show a tightening of the pressure gradients at the surface across the Cascades. This will bring increased winds back to the region leaning more towards windy conditions on Monday through the Gorge, Kittitas Valley and the southern Blue foothills. NBM raw ensembles are again in 60-80% agreement of sustained winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45-50 mph. Will be keeping an eye on the winds to watch for the need of a possible advisory for those areas. Mondays cold front will bring cooler temperatures and precipitation with Tuesday being the coolest day of the period. In house calculations show temperatures will drop to nearly 10-15 degrees below seasonal averages with the NBM ensembles showing temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s with a few isolated Basin locations seeing near 70s with high confidence of 70-90%. Precipitation is expected to return to the Cascades Monday afternoon with 0.05 inches of rain possible over the 24 hours with 70-80% confidence. Models show the rain to become more widespread Tuesday with precipitation expected across a vast majority of the region. Tuesdays 24 hour rain total are near 0.05 inches in the mountains with 70-80% confidence on 0.01-0.03 for some of the lower elevations. As the system steadily moves southeast, rain amounts will slightly decrease to 0.01-0.03 inches with 60-80% confidence and steadily decrease thereafter with mainly light showers expected through the remainder of the week. Models are in agreement with the system moving through. Looking at the clusters, the biggest difference between the models is where the low will go. Many models show the upper level system to cutoff and move to the south of the region. This will lead to wrap around precipitation as well as the potential for isolated thunderstorms beginning as early as Tuesday. Other models show the upper level cut off low tracking northeast only clipping the eastern portion of the region. Regardless, NBM 12 hr probabilities of thunder show 20% probabilities of thunderstorms along the OR Cascades, Cascade foothills and across central OR into the Ochco-John Day highlands Tuesday. By Wednesday the chance drop to 15% probabilities and shift mainly over the eastern mountains and portions of Wallowa. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... VFR conditions currently at all sites, which will stay the course through the period. Breezy 20-30 kt wind gusts are occurring at KDLS/KPDT/KRDM/KBDN, which will continue through the evening. 25kft ceilings will persist, clearing behind the system by mid-morning. 75 && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry and warm zonal flow through Sunday and then southwest flow Monday as an upper level trough/low moves into the region. Daytime RHs will be at their lowest over weekend with the lowest RHs will be Sunday with widespread teens and low 20%. RHs tomorrow will be in the low to mid teens through central or and the Ochco-John Day highland with pockets along the southern Blues and in the Basin. Sunday is the highest day of concern, especially in the Kittitas Valley where RHs will be in the low to mid 20% and winds will be between 15-25 mph as well as the Basin with 15-20 mph winds. This puts this area of the region in elevated fire weather concerns where the overall fire environment suggests a moderate high risk for significant fires (5-19% probabilities). && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 50 82 50 82 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 55 81 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 52 86 53 85 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 50 85 52 77 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 53 84 52 83 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 48 76 48 72 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 41 83 44 80 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 46 82 47 86 / 0 0 0 10 GCD 43 84 45 88 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 53 82 53 77 / 0 0 0 10 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...90 AVIATION...75 FIRE WEATHER...99

431 FXUS65 KREV 232154 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 254 PM PDT Sat May 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Warmer than average temperatures persist through Monday, but area waterways continue to run dangerously cold and swift. * Showers and thunderstorms expected each afternoon through the holiday weekend, posing impacts to outdoor activities. * Gusty winds will pose aviation, recreation, and fire impacts Monday and Tuesday with cooler, showery weather from mid to late week. && .DISCUSSION... Maturing showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted from Lassen County to the Oregon border, the W NV Basin and Range, and S Mono County where better moisture quality aloft resides. These areas will continue to be the focus for additional shower/t-storm development through the afternoon as continued surface heating increases instability (albeit still weak). Unlike yesterday, there does seem to be slightly better upper support as a subtle shortwave to the west and marginal speed divergence aloft promote weak synoptic ascent. While these features won`t be the main driver of showers/t- storms today, they at least won`t hinder its development. Expect the usual hazards (strong outflow winds/blowing dust, lightning, brief heavy rain) from any thunderstorms. Warm weather prevails this holiday weekend as daytime highs reach the 70s and 80s through Memorial Day. Keep in mind, mountain lakes, rivers, and creeks are still running cold and swift (water temps in the 40s and 50s) so be sure to exercise caution if near waterways. Showers and thunderstorms return to the W NV Basin and Range, and southern Mono County Sunday afternoon as a weak low pivots into southern California. Steering flow becomes more southerly on Sunday, which may direct storms northward into areas of W NV south of I-80 -- including the Greater Reno-Carson-Minden area -- as the afternoon progresses. Be prepared for additional thunderstorm impacts Sunday if planning any outdoor activities. A strong, compact Pacific low and attendant cold front will approach and pass through the region during the first half of the upcoming week. Wind impacts will be the primary concern Monday and Tuesday ahead of the cold frontal passage. Blended guidance indicates that there is a moderate to high probability (50% or greater) of 35+ mph wind gusts across NE California and far NW Nevada Monday afternoon. As such, be prepared for hazardous lake recreation due to choppy waters, bumpy flights, and blowing dust/reduced visibilities near sinks and playas in W Nevada. elevated to critical fire weather conditions are also likely Monday (more details below). Similar odds exist on Tuesday, but shift farther south and east. The core of the low moves overhead by the middle of the week, which when combined with daytime heating, will increase the potential for showers and thunderstorms/pellet showers Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Falling snow levels will also allow for light snow along Sierra passes Wednesday and Thursday with a low chance (10-20%) of 1+" along Tahoe passes, and 30-60% chance of 2+" along mountain passes south of Tahoe. Temperatures will also sharply cool around midweek with daytime highs falling from the 70s and 80s on Monday to the 50s and low 60s by Wednesday. The upper low is slow to depart the region, so the end of next week is trending on the cool and wet side. -Salas && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected for most E.Sierra and W.Nevada terminals this afternoon. KMMH and KHTH could see isolated showers this afternoon with brief light to moderate rainfall and gusty outflows. Thunderstorm chances (15-20%) will increase on Sunday at KMMH which could yield MVFR conditions from brief heavy rain, small hail, sudden/strong wind shifts, and lightning. Fuentes/Salas && .FIRE WEATHER... UPDATE: A Fire Weather Watch was issued for eastern Lassen County, the Surprise Valley, N Washoe County, and the western Humboldt Basin in anticipation of gusty winds and low RH Monday afternoon. Otherwise, the forecast below remains on track. A critical fire weather environment remains on track to unfold Monday afternoon across eastern Lassen Co, the Surprise Valley, and much of NW Nevada where gusty winds overlap low humidities. Duration of critical wind/RH is trending towards 4-8 hours in Lassen and far N Washoe County with 2-4 hours in Pershing County. Fuels are the limiting factor in this case as there is uncertainty in the continuity of receptive fuel beds, but local intel from dispatch centers/GACC suggests the cured grasses and sagebrush will be capable of carrying fire in valleys/midslopes of far NW Nevada. Farther south, elevated fire weather conditions will be possible, but fuel conditions aren`t as dry per local units. Winds remain elevated on Tuesday and will shift from southwesterly to north/northwesterly as a cold front sweeps through the region. Temperatures cool and humidity rises behind the front, with increasing chances of showers Wednesday and Thursday. -Salas && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening NVZ423-458. CA...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening CAZ270-278. && $$

439 FXUS66 KSTO 231920 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1220 PM PDT Sat May 23 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooling trend through early next week. - Gusty southwesterly winds through Monday combined with low daytime RHs, will lead to Elevated Fire Weather conditions in the Valley. - Elevated Fire Weather conditions in the Valley Tuesday- Wednesday due to gusty north winds and low humidity. - Chances for isolated showers/thunderstorms Tuesday-Thursday afternoon and evening over the Sierra and Shasta County. && .DISCUSSION... ...Today through Monday... Current satellite has clear skies across the area, with 5-15mph winds. Temperatures are expected to reach into the 80s to low 90s today, with minimum RH values in the upper teens to 20s within the Valley and portions of the Sierra. Winds will be breezy at times this afternoon out of the southwest. This combined with the low RH values bring periods of elevated fire weather conditions for the Valley where the winds are highest. Temperatures remain warm Sunday and into Monday, with the warmest conditions in the northern Sacramento Valley and into portions of the northern San Joaquin Valley. An approaching low pressure system from the eastern Pacific will help bring down temperatures in the southern Sacramento Valley and into the Delta by Monday. Highs on Monday will be in the 70s to lower 80s in portions of the southern Sacramento Valley and through the Delta thanks to onshore flow from the approaching system. Other areas will continue to see upper 80s to lower 90s. Winds remain breezy Sunday out of the SW, but as the low pressure moves closer to the region Monday winds do increase. Winds have the potential to gust 25-35 mph Monday. This combined with low RH values in the Valley bring Elevated Fire Weather conditions. Please do be mindful of any holiday weekend activities that involve fire/flame; the fuels will only continue to dry as we dive into the dry season. ...Tuesday through Friday... The upper level system moves onshore and through the region Tuesday through Thursday switching the winds from the southwest toward the north to northeast. As this happens we increase our winds, with gusts 35-45 mph possible Tuesday and Wednesday within the Valley. Drier air is filtered into the Valley helping to low daytime RH values into the teens. Localized lower RH values are possible in the northern Sacramento Valley. Right now, we are looking at Elevated Fire Weather conditions Tuesday evening through Wednesday when the winds are the highest and combined with low RH values. Confidence in the temporal resolution of RFW conditions are lower as criteria isn`t reached on a consistent basis. None the less, confidence is increasing on the Elevated Fire Weather concerns in general and we will continue to monitor the need for any products for Tuesday through Wednesday as we push through the weekend. On top of fire weather conditions, we have the chance for isolated showers and storms within the Sierra and parts of Shasta county Tuesday through Thursday. A few higher based storms are possible with 15-25 percent chances (highest in the Sierra south of Highway 50). Confidence remains low on timing, strength, and development of these storms as we have limited moisture and instability as the low pressure moves through. Temperatures will start to warm during this time and reach back into the upper 80s for the Valley by the end of the week as a high pressure builds into the region. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period. South to southwesterly winds increase through the afternoon for the Sacramento sites, with northerly winds in SCK and MOD. Winds have the potential to gust up to 20kts this afternoon and evening for the Sacramento Sites. Around 6z winds start to go light and variable, with clear skies overnight. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

287 FXUS65 KMSO 231844 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1244 PM MDT Sat May 23 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - A warming trend continues through the weekend with isolated storms in Northwest Montana this afternoon and evening. - Showers and thunderstorms chances increase region-wide by late Monday. - A large, slow-moving weather system will bring widespread rain and cooler temperatures Tuesday through much of next week, with a 50 to 70 percent chance of at least a quarter inch of rain by Wednesday morning. Scattered showers will develop this afternoon and evening, primarily across northwest Montana and along the Continental Divide. Impacts will stay largely limited to brief rain showers and localized wind gusts up to 30 mph. There is enough atmospheric energy to support an isolated thunderstorm over Glacier National Park. By tonight, showers will diminish as a ridge of high pressure builds into the Northern Rockies. This ridge will provide a dry, sunny weekend with temperatures climbing 10 to 15 degrees above normal for late May. A major pattern shift begins on Monday as a large area of low pressure drops into the Pacific Northwest. This will switch our winds to the southwest, drawing moisture and instability into the region. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop by Monday afternoon. Storms on Monday could produce gusty winds, frequent lightning, and small hail. By Monday night, a cold front will cross western Montana and north-central Idaho. As the front pushes east, wrap-around moisture will fill into the region. Tuesday is currently forecast to be the wettest and coolest day of the week, with high temperatures struggling to reach the 50s and 60s. Heading into Wednesday and Thursday, the low-pressure system is most likely to stall to our south over the Great Basin. This setup will pull unusually high levels of moisture northward from the Plains into Montana. Forecast models suggest atmospheric moisture will reach 150 percent of normal for late May. This moisture connection will introduce the threat of heavy rainfall and embedded thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION...A dry and stable airmass will maintain VFR conditions across the Northern Rockies airspace through the weekend, with one minor exception this afternoon. Sufficient instability near Glacier National Park may trigger an isolated thunderstorm or robust shower between 21Z and 03Z. This activity could result in localized MVFR conditions and erratic wind gusts up to 25 knots impacting the KGPI terminal. Otherwise, anticipate light, terrain- driven diurnal winds at KMSO, KBTM, KSMN, and KHRF through Sunday. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

753 FXUS65 KBOI 232325 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 525 PM MDT Sat May 23 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly dry with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal through Memorial Day. - Gusty winds Monday ahead of a Pacific cold front, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions in eastern Oregon. - Much cooler with gusty winds and a chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Monday Night/... Issued 203 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026 High pressure remains in control through Monday with increasing southwest flow aloft. This will pump up the temperatures both Sunday and Monday, with a 75-85 percent chance of exceeding 90 degrees in the lower valleys on Monday. Winds are expected to pick up from the southwest Monday afternoon, especially across eastern Oregon. These increasing winds in combination with low relative humidity, are expected to create an elevated risk of dangerous fire weather conditions for portions of Malheur and Harney counties. Anyone with outdoor plans on Monday across eastern Oregon should monitor the situation closely. && .LONG TERM /Tuesday through Saturday/... Issued 203 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026 Unsettled conditions are expected for much of the week as a trough of low pressure works through the region. Guidance is coming into focus on a trough path that brings the low into northern Nevada early in the week before lifting it northward through Idaho and eventually into Montana. Enough moisture is forecast that most areas will see measurable precipitation. Temperatures will drop to 10-15 degrees below normal Tuesday through Thursday, and snow levels are expected to drop below 8000 feet Wednesday. Behind the trough there is good agreement that high pressure will again build across the region into the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z Sunday through Monday/... Issued 523 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026 VFR. Virga/isolated thunderstorms near the Nevada border, capable of outflow gusts to 35 kt. Activity will decrease around sunset, then return near the ID-NV border Sunday PM. Surface winds W to N 5-15 with gusts to 15-20 kt, then variable up to 10 kt beginning around sunset. Winds aloft at 10kft: WSW 10-20 kt. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: NW-N 5-10 kt with occasional gusts around 15 kt, then SE or variable around 5 kt after 02Z this evening. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....SH SHORT TERM...MC LONG TERM....MC

499 FXUS65 KLKN 232128 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 228 PM PDT Sat May 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Thunderstorms chances 10-20% through this early evening and Sunday afternoon * Unseasonably warm through Memorial Day * Strong, gusty winds expected Tuesday * Chance of valley rain and mountain snow Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night && .FIRE WEATHER UPDATE... Strong winds and low minimum relative humidity will combine to bring critical fire weather conditions to fire weather zone 437 on Monday. Have therefore issued a fire weather watch from 12PM Monday afternoon to 11PM Monday evening. Will send updated fire weather forecast shortly. .FIRE WEATHER (previous issuance)... Isolated dry thunderstorms will continue to form during the early evening hours today. These are expected to dissipate after sunset this evening. For tomorrow, sufficient moisture and instability will be present across the central and northeastern fire zones to bring another round of isolated dry thunderstorms (probability of ten to twenty percent). Main threats continue to be cloud to ground lightning strikes and outflow wind gusts to 50 mph. By Monday, an incoming east Pacific trough will be moving into the Pacific Northwest states, aiming to dive to the southeast across northern and central Nevada on Tuesday. However, on Monday, elevated fire conditions are expected across fire zone 437 as wind speeds gust to around 30 mph with minimum relative humidity values hovering between 10 and 15 percent. The strong winds will spread south and east Tuesday, where southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph are possible across US Highway 50 in central Nevada. Afternoon highs will cool, though minimum relative humidity values will remain around 10 to 15 percent over the central fire zones. Look for increasing chances for valley rain showers and mountain snow showers over much of the area Tuesday night and Wednesday. High temperatures for the mid-week will cool into the 50s and 60s. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected through the 24 hour period. VCTS will continue into the early evening hours tonight before dissipating shortly after sunset. For Sunday, a weak trough axis will sit just west of the forecast area. Look for a fifteen to twenty percent probability for afternoon TS development across the KEKO terminal after 20Z with a ten to fifteen percent probability at KENV. Main impacts will be cloud to ground lightning strikes and outflow wind gusts to 45KT. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...86 FIRE WEATHER...86