231 FXUS66 KSEW 070333 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 833 PM PDT Tue Oct 6 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Mostly zonal flow will persist over western Washington as high pressure amplifies over the Great Basin region to the south. Warm conditions are expected throughout the week, with morning clouds and patchy fog, giving way to sunny afternoons. Rain chances increase into Friday as a front moves through. Cooler conditions arrive this weekend through early next week. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Evening update: Remaining fog/stratus in the east Strait of Juan de Fuca area is beginning to increase in coverage this evening, with a shallow fog bank moving down Puget Sound. A few areas (particularly around Mukilteo) have already dropped down to a quarter of a mile in spots. Fog development will be monitored overnight for potential headlines. The remainder of the short-term discussion below is valid for the evening update. High pressure at the surface remains offshore with lower pressure inland. A zonal flow pattern with a weak ridge overhead and a jet streak in southern Canada will continue to funnel the onshore pattern through midweek. Another round of fog and stratus will form tonight into Wednesday morning. The north/south interior and Olympics are the favored areas to see the lowest cloud decks/visibilities in the morning. and will clear by early afternoon. Probabilities for fog on Thursday morning are considerably less, but can`t rule out a few valley areas seeing development. Temperatures in this period will continue to remain mild, and slowly increase up to Thursday with a few spots even seeing highs into the low 70s. Overnight lows will range from the upper 40s to low 50s. Winds will remain out of the northwest at around 5-10 mph for most areas. HPR && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The next frontal system will sweep across the region later Friday through Saturday. While still some spread within the ensemble guidance, around 60-70% of members suggest a fairly deep upper trough moving through the region. This will bring some increased winds across the area ahead of the system on Friday, with rain continuing into Saturday. That said, rainfall amounts aren`t looking too impressive with totals around a tenth to a quarter of an inch through late Saturday. Colder air then settles into the region this weekend. Two things to consider with this for the weekend into the start of next week: 1) Any additional showers could bring some light snow accumulations above around 4,500 ft or so. 2) For the foothills and outlying locations, overnight lows could begin to dip down into the 30s. While confidence isn`t high, those with agricultural concerns should keep an close eye on the forecast for potential frost headlines for the start of next week. Cullen && .AVIATION... A flat upper ridge remains over region with westerly flow aloft. The low level flow is light northerly or weakly offshore. Stratus never fully cleared across the northern portions of Puget Sound and is expanding southward this evening. With weak surface gradients and already narrow temperature dew point spreads, the low levels are primed for widespread (albeit shallow) formation of LIFR low cloud and restricted surface visibility overnight into Wednesday morning. These conditions will persist into late morning before VFR returns across the area 18Z-20Z. KSEA...LIFR clouds are spreading southward across Puget Sound this evening and, as such, timing for LIFR conditions has been moved forward several hours. Conditions will be favorable for additional fog and low clouds to form in place as a light northerly surface gradient weakens overnight. Predominant LIFR ceilings are expected by around 08Z or 09Z with surface visibilities falling below 1SM at times. These conditions are expected to hang around through 18Z before gradually lifting and scattering out Wednesday afternoon. Surface winds light northerly becoming N/NW 6 to 8 knots Wednesday afternoon. 27 && .MARINE... High pressure over the waters will remain for the next few days. In the short term, the primary marine impact will be continued fog over portions of the waters. Improvement over the eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca and adjacent waters has been quite slow, which will likely result in widespread visibility less than 3 NM again late tonight through early tomorrow morning. Confidence remains a little lower in how widespread the dense fog will be, so will continue to evaluate the need for an advisory as it expands tonight. Otherwise, a building thermal trough along the Oregon coast will make its way north to the Washington coast, bringing northerly winds to the coastal waters. The strongest winds look to remain south of the local area, but there`s around a 20-30% chance of some gusts to 25 kt across the inner coastal waters off of Grays Harbor on Wednesday and especially Thursday afternoon. Similarly, some marginal advisory gusts through the central Strait may develop Thursday as winds return onshore. Chances remain too low for any advisories at this time, but it remains worth watching. More significant marine weather is expected Friday as the next frontal system reaches the coastal waters, pushing inland through early Saturday. This will likely (>80% chance) bring widespread advisory winds to the coastal waters and the Strait of Juan de Fuca, with seas building to at least 8-9 ft over the coastal waters. Current probabilities of reaching 10 ft remain around 60% for the end of the week. Cullen && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...None. && $$

008 FXUS66 KPQR 070441 AAB AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATE National Weather Service Portland OR 940 PM PDT Tue Oct 6 2026 Updated Aviation discussion .SYNOPSIS...Unseasonably warm and dry weather will persist through Thursday. Weak offshore flow will bring slightly warmer temperatures Wednesday and Thursday, before a trough brings a return to cooler temperatures with chances for light rain Friday into Saturday. Cool nights will bring chances for morning frost in rural valleys away from urban cores this weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Thursday Night...There has been minimal change to the short term weather forecast with this morning`s update. The region will remain under a persistent weather pattern through Thursday, with conditions staying dry and much warmer than average. A broad but low amplitude upper ridge will steadily build over the West Coast, supporting the development of weak thermal troughing at the surface along the coast and light offshore flow. With temperatures aloft warming slightly and less morning cloud cover over the next two days, expect high temperatures to trend several degrees warmer. The NBM 10th-90th percentile for high temperatures depicts very narrow spread, suggesting confidence in the temperature forecast is high. Highs are still expected to peak in the upper 70s to lower 80s on Wednesday and lower 80s on Thursday, which is 10-15 degrees above normal. Daily records on Thursday at most climate sites appear to be out of reach with a 5% chance or less of tying or surpassing existing record values, except for slightly higher chances of 15-20% at Salem and Eugene. See the Climate section below for a full list of record temperatures for October 8. The latest suite of hi-res model guidance now suggests fog and low stratus will be much less prevalent tonight into tomorrow morning and Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with most locations experiencing sunny skies from sunrise to sunset. REFS probabilities for low clouds are less than 10-20% tomorrow morning, except 30-40% in the Cowlitz Valley. Probabilities for fog are also generally under 20%, except 30-40% along the central Oregon Coast from Lincoln City to Florence. Based on the lack of widespread fog observed Tuesday morning and how quickly low clouds were able to dissipate compared to previous mornings, the trend of even less stratus and fog the next two mornings seems reasonable, especially given the return of light offshore flow and the extended duration of the ongoing dry stretch. -23 .LONG TERM...Friday through Monday...Model ensemble guidance is in better agreement on Friday and Saturday in regards to the synoptic-scale pattern and the potential for light rain. WPC`s cluster analysis for 500 mb heights and anomalies suggests a trough will move over B.C. and western WA Friday afternoon before becoming more amplified and forming a potential closed cut-off low on Saturday over the Pacific Northwest. This will bring two separate chances for rain. The first chance will be with a weak Pacific cold front associated with the incoming trough on Friday; rain chances begin Friday morning for much of southwest WA and the north OR Coast/Coast Range before spreading inland Friday afternoon/evening. Model ensemble guidance suggests eastern slopes of the Coast Range and locations to the west of the I-5 corridor within the Willamette Valley will be mostly rain-shadowed, with only a trace to a few hundredths of an inch of rain falling, if any at all. The NBM backs this up, as PoPs only peak around 10-15% in these areas. Meanwhile, PoPs and forecast rain amounts are relatively higher for the coast, Willapa Hills, Cowlitz Valley, western slopes of the Coast Range and Cascades, Cascade foothills, and locations east of the I-5 corridor within the Willamette Valley and Portland-Vancouver metro. That said, even these areas have low forecast rain amounts, with only a 15-35% chance for 0.10 inches of rain or more, except a 30-50% chance along and near the south WA/north OR coast, and in the south WA/north OR Cascades and adjacent foothills. Therefore, no impacts are expected with this frontal passage. QPF guidance suggests minimal post-frontal showery activity Friday night, except for the Cascades and foothills where orographic lift will allow showers to linger for a bit longer. Chances for rain then increase again on Saturday as the cut-off low moves over the area, especially for locations north of Florence, Eugene-Springfield, and Oakridge. Northern zones have a 20-40% chance of rain Saturday afternoon and around a 10-25% chance for 0.10 inches of rain or more. Rain chances fall below 5-10% on Sunday and Monday as dry low-level offshore flow develops, bringing breezy easterly winds to the Cascades, foothills, western Columbia River Gorge, and eastern Portland-Vancouver metro. Meanwhile, breezy north winds will develop in the Willamette Valley. The set-up this weekend will finally bring noticeably cooler temperatures, with highs in the 60s to around 70 degrees on Friday, lowering to the upper 50s to lower 60s on Saturday. Sunday and Monday trend a touch warmer as upper level heights rise again and offshore flow strengthens, however guidance is confident temperatures will be much closer to seasonal normals compared to what has been observed thus far this month. Morning lows will similarly cool, yielding increasing chances for frosty temperatures in the low to mid 30s from Friday night through Monday night. Frost may occur as early as Friday night in the Upper Hood River Valley, with 30-40% chances of falling to 36F or lower near Parkdale and Dee. Saturday and Sunday nights look to be the coldest, with nearly 10% chances for frost in Hood River proper, 50% near Odell, and 90% in Parkdale and Dee. Elsewhere, frost chances reach 15-35% in north Oregon Coast Range valleys, the central and southern Willamette Valley away from urban cores, and the Cascade foothills from Cowlitz County south to Lane County on Sunday night. Chances for a true freeze peak Sunday night at 50-60% near Parkdale and Dee and 15-20% near Odell in the Upper Hood River Valley, and at 20-35% along the OR-58 corridor between Eugene and Oakridge. Those with agricultural interests or home growers with sensitive outdoor plants should continue to monitor the forecast this week. -23/36 && .AVIATION...Through 06z Thursday...A broad ridge of high pressure remains over the region with light southwest flow aloft. Satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across the area as a marine stratus deck offshore pushes south along the central OR coast. However, there is a 40-50% chance that VIS remains reduced at KONP to LIFR due to mist or fog overnight. VFR conditions are expected inland through at least 10-12z Wed. Light offshore flow developing later tonight may mix in enough dry air to disrupt the low stratus and fog that has developed these past few nights throughout much of the interior lowlands. There remains a 20-30% chance for MVFR/IFR conditions developing at inland terminals, except for around a 30-50% chance within the southerly Willamette Valley near KEUG, between 12-18z Wed. North to northwest winds again increase along the coast with gusts to around 20 kt near KONP by 20z Wed. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions are expected to persist under mostly clear skies through at least 12z Wed. There is a low chance (20-30%) of MVFR/IFR stratus returning between 13-17z Wed. Northwest winds become light overnight. /DH && .MARINE...High pressure offshore will continue to maintain diurnal northerly winds through the week with peak afternoon and evening wind gusts of 20-25 kt today through Thursday. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect across the waters from 2 PM PDT this afternoon into tonight, and another round of Small Craft Advisories have been issued for 2 PM PDT Wednesday through Wednesday evening. Expect largely wind- driven seas around 4-6 ft through midweek, with a west- northwest swell of 3-4 ft at 10-12 seconds. High pressure aloft will also support areas of dense fog developing nightly through the morning hours as cloud bases are compressed down to the surface. More active marine conditions are likely in the latter half of the week as troughing over the Gulf of Alaska generates a building northwest swell. Seas will increase to 7-10 ft Wednesday into Thursday, with the longer-period swell also supporting a moderate risk for sneaker waves at the coast. Chances for rain return to the region Friday into the weekend, though rain amounts are not expected to be impactful. -36/03 && .CLIMATE... Daily record high temperatures for October 8 LocationValue (Year) Astoria 81 (1951, 1971) Portland Int`l87 (2022) Vancouver, WA89 (1891) Hillsboro89 (2022) McMinnville88 (2022) Salem84 (1971, 2022) Eugene83 (1934, 1943) && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ210-251>253. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 2 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ210-251>253. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ271>273. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ271>273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

246 FXUS66 KMFR 070455 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 955 PM PDT Tue Oct 6 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Warm temperatures will persist through the week with new high temperature records being set over some stations. * A cold front will move through around Friday evening with a very low chance of rain over the region. * Cooler weather will continue into the weekend with some cooler than normal overnight lows. && .DISCUSSION... A broad ridge will remain in place over the west coast this afternoon keeping temperatures well above normal for early October. The end result will be temperatures about 15 to 20 degrees above normal. Mount Shasta City`s old record of 88 is the only record that appears to be at risk this afternoon. We`re still forecasting a high of 88, although the currently hourly temperatures are tending a bit behind the forecast. In any case, Mount Shasta`s high temperature record of 88 on Wednesday is also at risk as we`re forecasting a high of 89. Not much change in the overall synoptic pattern, although the thermal trough appears more visible with inverted 850 mb heights and 1000-500 mb thickness contours along the coast and west of the Cascades. Offshore flow should also pick up a bit Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Definitely a late summer pattern on Wednesday. By Thursday, the 500 mb ridge starts to flatten, although temperatures stay in the lower 90`s west of the Cascades. Klamath Fall`s old record of 87 has a chance to fall or perhaps be tied as we`re forecasting 86. In addition, Mt Shasta City`s old record of 88 set in 2022 is at risk of falling to a new high of 89. Things finally start to change late Thursday into Friday with a deep trough falling out of Canada. This will help push temperatures 5 to 10 degrees lower. It also appears the cold front associated with this trough has sped up compared to 24 hours ago. As of now, models are bringing this cold front through Friday evening instead of Friday night as we wrote yesterday. It`s still looking like a mostly dry front, although there are ensemble members that are putting down some light rain along the cold front. The NBM currently has a 10-20% chance of rain Friday evening. Oddly enough, the PoP forecast is peaking in the southern end of the Rogue Valley where we should be under some enhanced upslope flow. We`ll see if Ashland and the Siskiyous see rain while Medford stays dry. By Saturday, the upper level trough from Canada will start to traverse the forecast area. The temperature drop will be notable and push us to `fall` like weather. Highs in Medford will fall to 66 degrees Saturday afternoon, which is almost a 30 degree drop compared to Thursday afternoon. We`ll have a 20% chance of some showers in southern Lake and Modoc Counties Saturday afternoon as the low moves through. The cooler fall like weather will continue Sunday into Monday next week. The overnight lows will be approaching freezing in areas west of the Cascades. The latest forecast has some mid to lower 30`s around the Rogue and Illinois valleys. These lows could be too low as a trough will be overhead and some cloud cover should prevent us from cooling off too much. Overall, warm and quiet weather continues through the remainder of the week before a cold front shoves us into fall. Minimal impacts anticipated over the next 7 days. -Smith && .AVIATION...07/06Z TAFs...Marine stratus will become widespread along the coast overnight, including at North Bend (KOTH) and stay in place into Wednesday morning. In the late morning and afternoon, expect clearing along the coast. However, some guidance indicates intermitent IFR possible along the coast into the afternoon. LIFR conditions then return to areas along the coast Wednesday evening, mainly north of Cape Blanco and from Brookings south. Inland, expect mainly VFR through the TAF period. However, there is a low chance (20%) for IFR/LIFR in the Umpqua Valley early Wednesday morning. && .MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Tuesday, October 6, 2026...A persisting thermal trough will produce gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas during much of the week ahead. As typical in these patterns, the strongest winds and highest seas will be south of Cape Blanco, with very steep seas expected from Gold Beach southward. Winds will be strongest during the afternoons/evenings and very steep seas will return daily during the evenings and overnight periods. Fluctuations in the thermal trough could bring very steep seas northward to around Bandon late Wednesday into Thursday, but the overall pattern will change very little until late week/into the weekend. A pattern change may bring active weather towards the end of the week. Marine rainfall is unlikely, but additional gusty northerly winds and persisting unsettled seas are possible. Guidance continues to show incoming long period westerly swell arriving at some point over the weekend, likely originating from a storm currently off the coast of Japan and the active tropics. Confidence is increasing that we will see the first long period swells of the season this weekend into early next week. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ376. && $$

800 FXUS66 KEKA 070717 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 1217 AM PDT Wed Oct 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * A couple more days of high temperatures with bring Moderate HeatRisk across the interior through the week. * A developing trough will bring much cooler conditions by Friday and the weekend. * No wetting rain forecast for the next 10 days. && .SYNOPSIS...Much warmer and drier than normal conditions will persist for a couple more days with shallow marine influence along shore. Much more seasonable cooler and moister conditions arrive by the weekend alongside strong north winds near shore. Chances for wetting rain remain near zero. && .DISCUSSION...Much warmer than normal conditions continue to linger under the influence of weakening high pressure. Many interior valleys again hit 100 on Tuesday with similar temperatures again most likely Wednesday and Thursday. Such conditions will continue to support moderate to isolated major HeatRisk across the interior but especially Mendocino and Lake Counties. Meanwhile, an especially shallow but strong marine layer will remain along shore with low marine fog and clouds and scattering out in the afternoon. By Friday, weak low pressure moving over the eastern Pacific will weaken heat and bring generally much more seasonable conditions. On Friday, highs will drop back into the lower 90s with a deeper marine layer along shore. A broad trough and associated surface cold front will further cool conditions by Saturday and into Sunday. High temperatures will drop back into the 70. Despite the front, essentially no models show any moisture associated with trough. Very light coastal drizzle will be the only precipitation potential as the marine layer gets lifted. As the trough dips south, there is strong model agreement that there is potential for unusually (EFI values of 0.75) strong north winds Saturday and Sunday. Winds could be particularly enhanced by low pressure detaching from the trough and moving south, though this scenario is uncertain. NBM shows most likely wind gusts along shore of 35 mph on Sunday. The strongest winds would be on coastal ridges and headlands. There is a 60% chance of gusts over 45 mph over the King Range and in the coastal waters, though that chance is only 10 to 20% for more populated areas like Crescent City and Humboldt Bay. Winds will most likely keep marine air scattered out along the coast, especially as winds turns slightly easterly into early next week. Ensembles remain dry throughout the extended forecast period (next 10-14 days), though much weaker high pressure will generally result in more normal temperatures. /JHW && .AVIATION...06z TAF...A very shallow marine layer is again impacting the coast, bringing a thin band of LIFR fog and ceilings to near coastal terminals. LIFR conditions will most likely persist overnight before slowly pulling back by late morning Wednesday. The pattern will most likely persist one more day with LIFR conditions resurging Wednesday evening, though ceilings are slightly started to lift with weaker high pressure. VFR conditions will continue across the interior. /JHW && .MARINE...As high pressure stalls and weakens Wednesday, moderate winds in the outer waters will generally become gentle Wednesday. That said, stronger winds just outside the waters will continue to generate some steep mid period seas up to 9 feet. These seas will mostly effect the outer waters with much calmer conditions close to shore. There continues to be be very minor, southerly longer period swells from distant tropical storms. North winds will quickly increase Friday and push closer to shore as low pressure pushes east of the areas. Gusts will most likely be near gale conditions with a 40% chance of proper gales south of Cape Mendocino by Friday evening. Of course, steep short period seas will rise in response. Winds will continue to strengthen Saturday as broad trough dips north of the area. By Saturday, there as 80% chance of gusts over 40 kts in the southern outer waters with gale conditions in the inner waters. Very windy conditions will then persist until at least next Monday. Around Sunday a long period swell around 5 feet at 22 seconds will augment the sea state. If short period seas were not so steep, such a swell would create a significant sneaker wave risk. /JHW && .FIRE WEATHER...Prolonged much hotter and drier than normal conditions have had a significant affect on observed fire danger. ERC values are currently above the 80th percentile across interior NW California. With a couple more days of warming and drying and due to the lagging nature of heavier fuels, ERC values will crest near the 90th percentile on Friday and Saturday. Such values will most likely be record breaking for October. At the same time, strong north winds gusting 30 to 40 mph will build near shore and along exposed ridges. Although by Saturday, conditions will be much more seasonably cool and moist (highs in 70s and RH around 30 percent), the lack of any rain chances and recent drying will still support near record breaking Burning Index values for October around Saturday. All that said, there is potential for much above average fire activity through the weekend. /JHW && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ110>114- 118>120. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ470- 475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

700 FXUS66 KMTR 070440 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 940 PM PDT Tue Oct 6 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1212 PM PDT Tue Oct 6 2026 - Hazardous heat inland persists through Thursday, never leave children or pets in unattended vehicles! - Elevated fire weather conditions persist in the interior through Thursday - Coastal flooding concerns due to astronomical tides and thermal expansion through the weekend - Hazardous beach conditions along Pacific coastline later this week into the weekend due to long period swell && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1212 PM PDT Tue Oct 6 2026 (This evening through Wednesday night) Patches of fog and stratus linger at the immediate coast, associated with a shallow marine layer that sits around 500 feet deep. The rest of the region remains clear as large scale ridging results in sinking air, thus suppressing cloud formation processes. The ridging is also helping to compress the marine layer, so don`t expect any overnight stratus outside of the immediate coast and favored areas adjacent to it, including the Petaluma Gap, the Golden Gate, and the coastal plain around Monterey Bay. On the flip side, for higher elevation areas above around 1000 feet, don`t expect that much relief at night. The marine layer inversion has set up right along those areas, resulting in a thermal belting effect where overnight lows remain in the upper 60s to middle 70s, limiting the ability of the body to recover from the heat of the day. As a final note, as the ridge has set up right over our area, local pressure gradients are relatively low, and the onshore flow this afternoon has likewise been neutered. Over the last couple of days, the default model blend has been running warmer than the observed temperatures across much of the region. On a broad scale, this is relatively minor (around 3 degrees warmer in the forecast across the inland valleys) so not a significant deviation to correct for. At the immediate coast, temperatures are significantly cooler than the model blend output would otherwise suggest. For example, downtown San Francisco reported a high of 71 yesterday compared to a forecast high of 80. Based off that assessment, I have lowered the high temperatures for today and Wednesday at the immediate coastal regions by around 5 degrees, into the middle 60s to lower 70s. This might still be an overshoot in some patches of the coast where the stratus continues to linger well into the afternoon. Elsewhere, high temperatures remain in the 80s to the lower 90s near the Bays, while the interior valleys should expect highs in the middle 90s to the triple digits (near 105 in the warmest spots of interior Monterey County). A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the interior regions through the end of Thursday, excluding the coastal strip and the northern Salinas Valley, as widespread Moderate HeatRisk blankets the interior, corresponding to a moderate risk of heat-related illnesses for sensitive populations, including children, the elderly, pregnant women, people with chronic illnesses, and people who work or live outdoors without access to adequate cooling or hydration. In addition, many of the higher elevations are seeing Major HeatRisk, corresponding to a high risk for heat-related illnesses for anyone without hydration or cooling. Follow these tips to avoid heat exhaustion and heatstroke: * Stay hydrated and drink plenty of fluids. * Wear lightweight, light-colored clothing. * Reduce time spent outdoors or stay in the shade. * Never leave people or pets unattended in vehicles. * Use sunscreen if going to the coast or the pool. Minor coastal flooding is expected at the Bayshore locations along the San Pablo Bay through the next few days as up to 0.9 ft of thermal expansion surge significantly impacts the tidal level. At the San Francisco tidal gauge, high tide is expected to be 0.6 ft above normal (6.48 ft MLLW) at 8:58 PM Tuesday 10/6 and 0.6 ft above normal (6.44 ft MLLW) at 10:19 AM Wednesday 10/7. Confidence in these specific values is moderate and the high tide yesterday evening ran to 0.8 ft above normal (6.64 ft MLLW) representing a surge of around 1.0 feet. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1212 PM PDT Tue Oct 6 2026 (Thursday through next Monday) Hot and dry conditions continue through Thursday with the Heat Advisory for the inland locations expiring at 10 PM that night. The first hints of a pattern change arrive on Friday, when an upper level trough forming over British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest, a decaying husk of an upper level low coming in from the Central Pacific, and a weakening Hurricane Rachel (expected to be a Tropical Storm by Friday) will interact to flatten the upper level ridge and bring troughing across the West Coast for the upcoming weekend. As a side note, with the breakdown of the ridge on Friday, confidence in the High temperatures will drop closer to, or slightly below, the seasonal averages by the weekend, with highs in the 70s across the inland valleys and the 60s at the Pacific coast and near the Bays. Ensemble model cluster analysis is coming around to some sort of trough across the region for the weekend, and continues to hold on to chances for something resembling an inside slider pattern towards the end of the weekend into the early part of next week, although confidence is not high. As the trough deepens, various clusters show the trough axis developing somewhere from central Oregon and Northern California to the Great Basin. Many of the scenarios support some form of northerly flow over the Bay Area and Central Coast, but the exact orientation of the low will determine whether the flow retains a more westerly component or pushes more from due north or the northeast. Minor coastal flooding continues along the bayshore San Pablo Bay on Thursday with high tide at San Francisco expected to be 0.8 ft above normal (6.68 ft MLLW) at 10:51 AM Thursday 10/8. With higher astronomical tides expected Friday into the weekend, a Coastal Flood Advisory may need to be issued for bayshore locations along the San Francisco and Monterey Bays closer to that time. In addition, southerly swell from Rachel will increase the risk of rip currents and sneaker waves later this week into the weekend as long period swell of 15 to 18 seconds arrives. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 940 PM PDT Tue Oct 6 2026 Stratus and fog along the coast, largely VFR across the interior. The question becomes if fog will reach STS as webcams show fog developing upstream along the Russian River. If fog does reach STS it likely won`t be until the early morning hours so have included a tempo for fog from 13-17Z. Elsewhere, not expecting fog/stratus to reach SFO or OAK tonight given the shallow marine layer. LIFR to IFR conditions are expected at HAF, MRY, and SNS with dense fog likely to develop. Guidance is indicating an early clearing of fog (15-17Z) for coastal areas. Moderate onshore winds continue during the afternoon and evening with lighter, variable winds overnight. Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. The shallow marine layer should keep fog from reaching SFO with guidance showing some potential for stratus to return late tomorrow night. Onshore winds strengthen late afternoon/evening with winds around 18 knots expected. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...LIFR to IFR conditions expected overnight as dense fog develops along the coast. Bumped up the timing of fog arrival at SNS and MRY with arrival now around 08Z. Guidance shows clearing around 15-16Z tomorrow morning with stratus likely to return tomorrow evening. LAMP guidance supports an earlier return but other models are still uncertain. Have included a SCT cloud deck for 03Z tomorrow night in the current TAFs but this is likely to be adjusted as models get a better idea of when stratus will return tomorrow night. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 940 PM PDT Tue Oct 6 2026 A gentle to moderate northerly breeze continues through Thursday due to persistent high pressure. Strong to near gale force winds develop Friday evening continuing over the weekend as an coastal level trough moves in. Strongest winds will be over the outer waters north of Point Reyes. Moderate seas prevail through Thursday, building and becoming rough to very rough Friday into Saturday. A confused sea state will develop late week due to moderate to long period westerly swell entering the coastal waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 456 AM PDT Tue Oct 6 2026 Maximum and minimum temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above normal across the interior with a compressed marine layer at the coast will persist through Thursday. Widespread poor minimum relative humidity is expected across the interior with little-to-no recovery for the higher terrain. Active thermal belting and prolonged burn periods will continue across the higher terrain. Winds remain the limiting factor, with diurnal winds prevailing except for light northerly/offshore flow overnight across the higher terrain. ERC values are forecast to reach near records during the next seven days from the hot and dry conditions. An inside slider like pattern succeeding this heat event will likely keep elevated fire weather conditions around. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ503-504-506-508- 510-512>518. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ506. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DialH LONG TERM....DialH AVIATION...Kennedy MARINE...Kennedy Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

878 FXUS66 KOTX 070702 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1202 AM PDT Wed Oct 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably warm and dry conditions continue through Thursday. - An incoming weather system on Friday will bring cooler temperatures, gusty winds, and chances for rain. && .SYNOPSIS... Conditions will remain dry and unseasonably warm in the 70s and low 80s through Thursday. An incoming weather system Friday will bring chances for rain and light mountain snow as well as cooler temperatures and gusty winds. && .DISCUSSION... Today through tomorrow: Another warm and dry fall day is ahead of us due to the upper-level ridge over the western and central US continuing to dominate the weather pattern. High temperatures today will be in the mid to high 70s, around 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Overnight lows will be closer to normal due to clear skies and light winds promoting efficient radiational cooling. Northern sheltered valleys will see temperatures in the high 30s, while temperatures in the Columbia Basin, Spokane, and Palouse areas will see lows in the mid 40s. High temperatures will warm by a degree or two each day through tomorrow as the ridge restrengthens. Enjoy these warmer fall days while they last, because a cooldown is in order for the weekend. Friday through Sunday: Cluster analysis shows roughly 80 percent of ensemble members favoring a strong trough moving through the area Friday afternoon. There is still uncertainty in the track, timing, and strength of the trough. This trough will usher in a cold front Friday afternoon, and as it does, a tight east-west surface pressure gradient will form across the state, resulting in gusty westerly to southwesterly winds. At this point, these winds appear to be the primary impact. On Friday afternoon, wind gusts in the Waterville Plateau and Columbia Basin are forecast to increase to 30 to 35 mph, with gusts 20 to 25 mph elsewhere. Given the prolonged stretch of little to no precipitation, blowing dust will be possible across the Columbia Basin where soils remain dry. These gusts will create difficult travel conditions, especially for high profile vehicles, and could blow around unsecured objects. This cold front will also result in a sharp drop in temperatures from Friday to Saturday. Highs will drop 10 or more degrees, with temperatures returning to seasonal normals in the upper 50s to low 60s. It will also bring a return of precipitation chances, but mostly to the mountain areas. On Friday and Saturday, precipitation will be confined to the Cascades and ID Panhandle mountains. Saturday night into Sunday, precipitation chances will increase across the Okanogan Valley, northern mountains, and northern Idaho Panhandle as the upper low shifts southward and precipitation wraps around the system. Precipitation chances remain highest in the mountains, though snow levels do fall to around 4500-5000 feet Saturday night into Sunday, bringing a small chance for mountain snow. Hikers and campers at these elevations and higher should be prepared for light snow and freezing temperatures. Elsewhere, precipitation chances reach 15 to 20 percent. Gusty conditions will continue Saturday and Sunday as winds from the north increase. On Saturday, gusty winds will be mostly confined to the Okanogan Valley, Waterville Plateau, and basin areas. On Sunday, gusty winds will be more widespread, again reaching 30 to 35 mph in the basin and Waterville Plateau. On Sunday, the chance for blowing dust in the Columbia Basin returns. Bottom line, expect a chilly and windy weekend in the Inland Northwest, and stay tuned as the forecast becomes clearer in the coming days. /AS && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: For the next 24 hours, VFR conditions and high clouds are forecast. Winds will be light and less than 10kts, and generally be diurnally driven. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions at airport terminals. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 75 46 77 48 71 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 75 46 75 47 70 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 20 Pullman 76 45 76 47 71 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 20 Lewiston 79 49 79 50 78 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 30 Colville 76 39 75 41 69 33 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 Sandpoint 71 43 71 44 67 37 / 0 0 0 0 10 40 Kellogg 74 46 74 47 69 40 / 0 0 0 0 0 30 Moses Lake 78 44 79 47 74 38 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 78 54 79 55 70 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 76 47 76 50 70 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

917 FXUS66 KPDT 070509 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1009 PM PDT Tue Oct 6 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and above normal temperatures through the week. - Breezy and fire weather concerns Friday. - Weekend rain chances, with mountain snowfall possible. && .DISCUSSION... Current radar and visible satellite imagery shows dry conditions under mostly clear skies. This is in response to a building upper level ridge offshore that will keep conditions dry and temperatures slightly cooling through the week as northwest flow aloft enhances. A weak, thermal trough is expected to build along the coast on Wednesday, which will allow for light east winds through the Columbia Basin and Gorge. This thermal trough will strengthen on Thursday to provide breezier winds through the Columbia Gorge, primarily west of the Hood River area. These east winds will keep overnight humidity recoveries in the 30-50% range across portions of Central Oregon, John Day Basin/Highlands, Blue Mountains, Elkhorns, and the Cascade gaps. The ridge of high pressure shifts further west and into the Eastern Pacific late Thursday to Friday, opening the door to a dropping upper level trough from the Gulf of Alaska. Due to the influence of the departing ridge and incumbent dry air from the east winds Wednesday and Thursday, limited rain is expected as winds will be the primary concern. The GFS and NAM advertise a pressure gradient of 11-12.5 mb over the Cascades, which suggests winds reaching advisory criteria. The NBM showcases a 20-40% chance of sustained winds of 30 mph or greater, with a 30-60% chance of gusts reaching 45 mph or greater across the Simcoe Highlands, Kittitas Valley, and portions of the Columbia Basin on Friday. Afternoon humidities will drop into the teens across the John Day Basin and portions of Central Oregon on Friday, which may lead to isolated fire control and spread concerns as well. These elevated winds may also provide areas of blowing dust, potentially decreasing visibilities and causing travel concerns along the Interstate 90, 84, and 82 corridors. Guidance is continuing to struggle with the overall strength of the incoming upper level trough on Friday, highlighted by a 73% ensemble member variance in system strength. 60% of ensemble members show a significant system moving through the area during peak afternoon hours on Friday, which aligns with a slight potential for advisories through portions of the Basin. 24% of members also suggest a slightly later passing of the system, alleviating some wind concerns and producing sub- advisory winds. The primary moisture supply for this system is the remnants of Hurricane Rachel as it turns north and transitions to sub-tropical status as the trough strengthens and drops south through the Pacific Northwest. The stronger trough is more efficient at bringing moisture from Rachel`s remnants north and across the area, but rain amounts are still rather low and below a wetting rain for most of the region. Currently, 89% of ensemble members show the majority of the area receiving measurable rainfall (0.01" or greater) Saturday, with more widespread measurable rain on Sunday. Regardless of outcome, 48-hour rain amounts look to stay around 0.05" or less across lower elevations, and up to 0.1-0.15" for higher terrain across the Blue Mountains Saturday through Sunday. Snow levels will also be in decline over the weekend, reaching around 3,000 feet on Sunday - so there is also potential for snowfall over higher terrain Saturday night into Sunday morning. A freeze concern is also present across Central Oregon and portions of the Columbia Basin starting Sunday. The NBM advertises a 50-70% chance of freezing temperatures Monday morning across Central Oregon and the Blue Mountain foothills, so freeze products may be warranted. Stay tuned. 75 && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... DLS/PDT/RDM/BDN: VFR conditions to prevail through the period. Winds will be light, 12kts or less, and diurnally/terrain driven. Lawhorn/82 PSC/ALW/YKM: VFR conditions will persist throughout the period. Winds will be below 12kts and will be diurnally driven. Garty/26 && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 46 79 46 81 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 51 80 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 45 80 46 82 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 49 80 50 82 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 45 80 45 82 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 46 77 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 41 82 40 83 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 46 84 45 83 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 48 89 48 87 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 52 84 53 86 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...75 AVIATION...26/82

321 FXUS65 KREV 061901 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1201 PM PDT Tue Oct 6 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Well above average temperatures will persist through Friday, with daily record highs possible throughout the area. * A potent cold front is expected to produce gusty winds with the potential for enhanced fire weather concerns Fri-Sat. * Significant cooling is expected behind the front with below averages temperatures returning, along with 10-20% chances for rain and mountain snow showers by Sunday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Strengthening high pressure will result in temperatures 10-15 degrees above average through Friday afternoon, with nearly a 90% chance of record-breaking highs in Reno on Wednesday which has softer records that day. Overall, highs will reach the upper 80s to near 90 degrees across western Nevada, eastern Lassen County, and lower elevations of Mono County, while eastern Sierra communities will see highs in the mid-70s to lower 80s through Friday. See the Climate section below for details on potential record highs and record warm lows at Reno and South Lake Tahoe. A significant change arrives this weekend as a closed low pressure system moves south from the Pacific Northwest. A potent cold front associated with this system will increase winds on Friday, with stronger winds expected Saturday with the front. Widespread gusts of 30-40 mph are possible, with a 25-35% chance of gusts exceeding 45 mph. These winds, combined with persistent dry conditions could create critical fire weather conditions across western Nevada and portions of the eastern Sierra. Temperatures are expected to drop 20-25 degrees from Friday to Sunday, with a 10-20% chance of rain and high-elevation snow showers from Sunday into early next week. Confidence in the systems track remains low, leaving the extent of cooling, precipitation chances, and snow levels uncertain. Those with outdoor recreation plans in the eastern Sierra this weekend or early next week should prepare for much colder weather and the possibility of light snow showers as low as 7,000-8,000 feet. Fuentes && .AVIATION... * VFR conditions will prevail at the main terminals through at least Friday with typical afternoon breezes below 20 kts. * A pattern change this weekend may result in an increased potential for LLWS and turbulence as a potent cold front is expected to provide increasing winds along with much cooler weather with rain and mountain snow showers. Fuentes && .CLIMATE... For both area climate sites (Reno at KRNO airport and South Lake Tahoe at KTVL airport): Record high temperatures for October 3 (91F) and 4 (89F) were tied at Reno over the past weekend. So far this month, South Lake Tahoe hasn`t reached any record highs, and neither site has reported any record warm lows. Near record high temperatures and warmest low temperatures remain in the forecast through Friday. Wednesday (10/7) has the highest probability (near 90%) for at least a tied record high for that date. Current record high temperatures for Reno and South Lake Tahoe: Date Reno NV South Lake Tahoe CA ---- ------------ ------------------- 10/6 88F (1942,1980,1991,1996) 78F (2014) 10/7 87F (1964,1980,1996,2014) 78F (1991,2014) 10/8 91F (1965) 77F (1996,2015) 10/9 92F (2015)* 82F (1996) * Reno`s latest 90+ degree day for any calendar year. --------------------------------------------------------------- Current record warmest low temperatures for Reno and South Lake Tahoe: Date Reno NV South Lake Tahoe CA ---- ------------ ------------------- 10/6 57F (2021) 46F (2021) 10/7 52F (1930,2021,2024) 43F (2021) 10/8 62F (1933)*46F (1969) 10/9 52F (2015,2023)44F (2003) * Reno`s warmest low temperature for any day in October. && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$

963 FXUS66 KSTO 061859 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1159 AM PDT Tue Oct 6 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat Advisory now in effect till 10 PM Friday for the Sacramento Valley, Delta, northern San Joaquin Valley, and adjacent foothills. - Widespread Moderate HeatRisk with areas of Major HeatRisk through Friday for the Delta, Valley, and Foothills. - Confidence is increasing for a cooling trend over the weekend/into next week, with some potential for unsettled weather, and elevated fire weather conditions. && .DISCUSSION... ...Today through Friday... Mostly clear skies with some lingering haze observed on GOES-18 this morning. Very light winds with upper level ridging aloft will help keep haze at lower levels today. High temperatures will continue to be unseasonably hot today as well, with highs in the mid to upper 90s with triple-digit readings expected. Widespread Moderate HeatRisk, with areas of Major HeatRisk will continue today through Friday, and as such the Heat Advisory will continue through Friday at 10 PM. Upper level ridging will continue to dominate the rest of the work week with light surface winds providing little relief to the hot temperatures. Ensembles are beginning to show higher confidence in a breakdown of the synoptic pattern as early as Friday afternoon, so some relief from hot temperatures will be arriving as we move into the weekend. ...Saturday - Monday... As mentioned above, upper level ridging will begin to break down as a weak offshore low develops and lowers our heights. With the offshore low developing, a slight uptick in onshore flow will help provide some nighttime relief to the warm temperatures, as well as usher in cooler highs in the mid to upper 70s/low 80s across the Valley on Saturday, with further cooling into the low to mid 70s on Sunday. Broad troughing will develop across the PacNW Sunday, with some ensembles suggesting a pseudo inside slider pattern to evolve. Disagreement still exists regarding strength and location of trough, but confidence continues to increase in the overall pattern change. Troughing may usher in some unsettled weather in the mountains on Sunday and Monday, but PWAT values associated with the trough will be highest to the south of the warning area. Biggest sensible weather changes will be more seasonable, fall- like high temperatures and a period of locally breezy north to east winds developing behind the trough Sunday into Monday. NBM advertises north to east wind gusts of 25-35 mph on Sunday and Monday, strongest along and west of the I-5 corridor and in the Burney Basin. Due to recent heat and drying of fuels, elevated fire weather conditions are likely Sunday into Monday, especially when the north to east winds will be at their strongest. Will continue to monitor conditions as we move closer to the weekend. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions prevail across interior NorCal next 24 hours, with light surface winds generally below 12 knots. East wind gusts up to 15 to 20 knots in the higher elevations through 14z Wednesday. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT Friday for Butte County Below 1000 ft-C. San Joaquin County including Stockton-C. Solano County including Fairfield-C. Stanislaus County including Modesto-C. Yolo/NE Solano including Woodland-Central Colusa County Incl. I- 5-Central Glenn Co & Interstate 5-Central Motherlode 1000-3000 ft-E. Diablo Range Above 1000 ft-Eastern Colusa County-Eastern Glenn County-N. Motherlode 1000-3000 ft-N. Sac Valley in Tehama County-NE San Joaquin Valley Below 1000 ft-SW Solano County including Vallejo-Sac Metro/W. El Dorado/Amador County- Sacramento County Delta-San Joaquin County Delta-Shasta County Foothills 1000-3000 ft-Shasta Metro-Sierra (Tehama-Plumas) 1000- 3000 ft-Southern Motherlode 1000-3000 ft-Sutter/Yuba counties below 1000 ft-Tracy Triangle Below 1000 ft-W Tehama Co Foothills 1000-3000 ft-W. Glenn/Colusa Foothills 1000-3000 ft-W. Shasta County 1000-3000 ft-W. Stanislaus County Above 1000 ft & I-5-W. Yolo County including Capay/I-505-Yolo / Solano County Hills. && $$

345 FXUS65 KMSO 070656 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1256 AM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Beautiful, mild, and unseasonably warm weather continues through Friday. - Confidence continues to grow for a sharp transition to a colder pattern with the potential of snow along the Continental Divide this weekend. Warm and dry conditions remain over our region as high temperatures continue to run 15 to 20 degrees above normal. These conditions are about to change. Friday southerly breezes increase as a trough drops south out of Canada. Gusts up to 30 mph in valleys along with gusts to 50 mph in the mountains will be common. Saturday high temperatures will be up to 20 degrees cooler than Friday. Westerly winds gusting 15 to 25 mph may swing northeasterly as a backdoor cold front is forecast. Sunday high temperatures could be an additional 10 degrees cooler. Highs on Friday of mid to upper 70s becoming mid to upper 40s by Sunday. The lowest valleys of North-central ID may remain near 60 but that will also be close to a 30 degree drop compared to upper 80s on Friday. Precipitation is still the biggest question mark. For instance, from the US-93 corridor and west the 48 hour total is 0.00 inches up to 0.50 inch. This means 25% of the models suggest precipitation will remain along the Divide, while the 25% wetter models suggest up to 0.50 inch over most of western MT. There is some confidence that along the Continental Divide and in southwest MT there could be 0.50 to 1.50 inches of precipitation by Monday morning. Couple that with snow levels lowering below 4000 feet and area mountain passes could receive multiple wet, slushy inches of snow. Add extra time to your travels if crossing the Divide on Sunday. Also if you have outdoor plans that take you above 4000 feet this weekend, especially in and around Glacier National Park, prepare for wet and raw conditions to avoid hypothermia. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions will dominate across all Northern Rockies terminals through Thursday under high pressure. Light winds and clear skies will persist, with localized morning mist/fog possible in low valleys, especially KGPI. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

421 FXUS65 KBOI 070550 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 1150 PM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Continued very warm, dry days through Friday. - Much cooler, with showers, Saturday through Tuesday. - Significant rainfall possible in Idaho Monday and Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Thursday Night/... Issued 210 PM MDT TUE OCT 6 2026 Upper level high pressure will continue warm, dry days through Thursday. Mostly clear skies and light winds will allow good radiational cooling at night and low temps in the 40s to lower 50s, except 30s in colder mountain valleys. Winds will continue light and terrain-driven. && .LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/... Issued 210 PM MDT TUE OCT 6 2026 One final day of warm and dry conditions is expected Friday before a major pattern change Saturday through Tuesday. An upper-level trough will move south from British Columbia, increasing wind speeds in higher terrain as it moves closer to the area. A cold front will move across the area on Saturday, cooling high temperatures by about 20 degrees areawide from Friday. Breezy winds will expand to lower elevations as the front moves through. The trough is favored to close off and dive south through the Pacific Northwest, moving into SE Oregon and SW Idaho Saturday into Sunday. Once late Sunday into Monday rolls around, models are split on having the system move even further south into CA/NV or staying progressive and moving east. These range of solutions greatly increase uncertainty early next week, as ensembles have consistently developed significant precipitation to the east of the low center where better moisture will exist. The current forecast is a 40-60% chance of precipitation across central Idaho Saturday night through Tuesday, with a 10-30% chance elsewhere. Temperatures are expected to decrease to 5 to 10 degrees below normal Sunday through Tuesday, which will also take many higher elevations to below freezing during overnight periods. Temperatures low enough for frost at lower elevations may also occur, but confidence in that is low currently. Cooler air will also mean lower snow levels, allowing for snow on the higher peaks. However, similar to the precipitation forecast, how much cooler depends on the exact track of the low. The most aggressive model guidance has snow levels in SE Oregon getting near 4000 feet at the lowest. Winds will remain breezy through Sunday, then start to subside early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z Wednesday through Thursday/... Issued 1150 PM MDT TUE OCT 6 2026 VFR. Clear skies. Areas of smoke and haze may reduce visibility near prescribed burns. Surface winds: variable less than 12 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W 5-15 kt. KBOI...VFR with clear skies. Surface winds: SE less than 5 kt tonight becoming NW 5-10 kt Wednesday afternoon. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....JDS SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....CH

336 FXUS65 KLKN 062042 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 142 PM PDT Tue Oct 6 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Isolated (10-15% chance) showers across the eastern half of White Pine County. * Record to near record warmth today through Friday. * Possible pattern change bringing cooler more active weather this Sunday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Monday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Weak instability of up to 250 J/kg of CAPE across eastern White Pine County will continue isolated chances for showers. A lightning strike or two cannot be ruled out, though chances remain below 10%. Hi-res guidance seems to be too quick in exiting moisture from the weak surface low that is moving into central Utah. Remnant moisture on the water vapor loop and developing cumulus on visible satellite suggest isolated showers will continue along and east of US 93 through this afternoon. Increased PoPs in these areas for mentionable showers. Otherwise, upper-level ridging builds into the Great Basin through the rest of the workweek, leading to continued warmth with record to near record high temperatures across the climate sites through Friday. Ely sees the greatest likelihood for record highs today and Thursday at around a 10 percent chance with current forecast highs within a couple degrees of the record. Friday into the weekend, another upper low will cutoff and dig southward off the California Coast, with a secondary and stronger trough quickly moving into the Pacific Northwest on its heels. This will lead to stronger southwesterly flow into Saturday with breezy to locally windy conditions with max 24-hr gusts of 30 to 40 mph across northern and central Nevada with a 35% chance for wind gusts over 40 mph in Elko and a 75% chance in Ely. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Increase PoPs in eastern White Pine County to account for localized convective activity this afternoon. High confidence in well-above normal temperatures through Friday with moderate confidence in a cooler, wetter pattern into the weekend and early next week. Long range ensemble clusters in disagreement on how the two aforementioned troughs interact with the wetter cluster scenarios that combine the troughs across the Great Basin bringing greater chances for measurable precipitation by late Sunday into Monday. Low chances for mountain snowfall if the deeper trough outcome pans out with snow levels dropping below 10k ft with increased moisture. && .AVIATION... VFR across all terminals through the next 24 hours. Greatest chances for isolated showers around 15% at KELY through the early evening. Light and variable wind below 10 kt through the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... A mix of isolated wet and dry thunderstorms over far eastern portions of zone 425 through this afternoon at 15% or less. Dry conditions through the remainder of the workweek with light winds generally below 15 mph through Thursday. Winds begin to increase Friday and especially into Saturday ahead of the next incoming weather system. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...84 AVIATION...97 FIRE WEATHER...84