ZSE Aviation Forecast Discussions

548 FXUS66 KSEW 100814 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 114 AM PDT Fri Jul 10 2026 .SYNOPSIS... A weak front will bring increasing clouds and cooler temperatures to Western Washington into Saturday along with chances for some rain. Upper ridging will build back into the Pacific Northwest for warmer, dry conditions Sunday through Tuesday. Onshore flow increases again during the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Clouds are increasing across the area early this morning ahead of a frontal system that will slide onshore across Western Washington late this afternoon. Initial precip chances are fairly meager outside of a few showers near the coast and in the North Cascades. Onshore flow is slated to increase further on Saturday ahead of an upper trough and meso models are starting to latch onto the idea of some convergence developing Saturday morning. So, areas north of the King County line might wake up to some damp ground on Saturday morning. Apart from that, Saturday will feature mostly cloudy skies with temperatures struggling to get north of 70 degrees across much of the interior. Heights begin to rise on Sunday as upper troughing lifts northward back in British Columbia. This will allow some sunshine to return to most areas by Sunday afternoon with temperatures nudging upwards closer to normal for the time of year. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A warming trend continues into Monday and Tuesday as a very strong ridge centered over the Northern Great Plains exerts a little more influence over the area. Light onshore flow continues during the period, but 500 millibar heights at or above 580 decameters will be sufficient to boost temperatures from Seattle metro southward back into the lower to mid 80s with low end chances for moderate HeatRisk. The forecast picture turns a little more uncertain toward the middle and end of next week...at least, from a temperature perspective. Confidence is high in continued dry conditions. Generally speaking, ensembles are now trending toward a declining influence in anomalous upper troughing to our west and/or northwest as strong ridging becomes firmly established over the Intermountain West. As we approach mid-July, this is typically the case in most years. So, what does this mean for Western Washington? It means that we`re quite likely looking at the return of an extended period of above average temperatures at the end of (and just beyond) the current 7 day forecast. 27 && .AVIATION... A slowly approaching front has initiated a stronger marine push which is making its way inland early Friday morning. Marine stratus has formed along the coast with MVFR/IFR cigs and is spreading into the interior with widespread MVFR cigs expected by 11-15z Fri. This layer looks to stick around through the morning hours before improving to VFR around 20z-22z Fri inland, though expect mid to high level clouds to continue into Saturday. Stratus may stick around longer along the coast and may not fully dissipate at KHQM, though cigs could fluctuate between MVFR and low-end VFR after 21z Fri. Expect mainly west to southwest winds 4 to 8 kts. KSEA...VFR conditions with mid-level stratus will likely deteriorate to MVFR cigs. Latest guidance shows confidence in more widespread MVFR cigs by 11z-14z Friday as a marine layer spreads through the interior. Additionally, there`s a 30-45% chance of IFR cigs through 17z Fri. VFR conditions are expected to return around 19-21z Fri, though expect mid to high level BKN/OVC layer to remain into Saturday. Northwesterly winds 4 to 8 kts will turn south to southwesterly by 11-14z Fri, continuing into Saturday. && .MARINE... High pressure over the waters will weaken today as a weak surface low shifts southward toward to just west of north Vancouver Island on Saturday morning. An associated weak frontal system will cross the waters Friday afternoon into Friday night with little to no impact. High pressure will rebuild Sunday into Monday and remain in place into midweek. Diurnally driven increases in westerlies can be expected in the Strait of Juan de Fuca each the next several days. 27 && .FIRE WEATHER... The current onshore pattern will continue through the weekend which will lead to continued excellent nightly RH recoveries. Light drizzle or rain chances exist Friday into Saturday, mainly for the Olympics and Cascades. Rainfall amounts during this period would generally total less than 0.10". A ridge of high pressure rebuilds into the region Monday and Tuesday. While the onshore pattern will largely remain in place, warmer daytime temperatures and clear skies will likely lead to RH values dipping into the 20-40% percent range, with the lowest values in the south interior and Cascades Valleys. This will allow fine fuels to continue to dry with elevated fire weather conditions. Some modest cooling is slated to arrive by the middle of next week, but may well be short-lived. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT early this morning for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Saturday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca- East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. && $$

123 FXUS66 KPQR 101120 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 420 AM PDT Fri Jul 10 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Persistent onshore flow will continue to yield dry and seasonable weather through this weekend. Temperatures trend warmer early next week as high pressure builds over the Plains. Beyond midweek, forecast uncertainty increases but dry and hotter weather is favored. && .DISCUSSION...Now through Thursday...Seasonable conditions are expected across the region through the weekend. An upper level trough over northern British Columbia will slip farther south today, supporting average temperatures in the uppers 70s to low 80s across the inland valleys and in the low to mid 60s along the coast each afternoon. Marine stratus expected to remain confined to the coast, coast range valleys, and along the lower Columbia River Friday. Coastal locations may see a short period of broken or scattered clouds this afternoon before stratus rebuilds eastward. Stratus is expected to be more widespread tonight into Saturday morning as the trough shifts more overhead. Saturday morning is expected to start out cloudy, eventually dissipating by the afternoon but overall keeping the temperatures cooler. Expect a shift toward warmer temperatures to start next week as an upper level ridge amplifies over the Central Plains. Temperatures expected to jump into the mid 80s to around 90 degrees on Monday and Tuesday for inland valleys and mid 60s to around 70 degrees along the coast. Tuesday looks like the warmest day next week and has the highest and most widespread probabilities for 90 degrees. Chances are 30-40% along the I-5 corridor and around the Portland metro with lower chances of 15-30% within the Cascade and Coast Range Foothills. There is also a low (5-15%) chance for some locations around the Central Willamette Valley to reach 95 or greater. The chances for Moderate HeatRisk reach 25-50%, highest in the lower Tualatin Valley (Beaverton, Tigard, Tualatin) and adjacent portions of Multnomah and Clackamas Counties (Portland, Wilsonville, Canby), while the chances of Major HeatRisk remain less than 5%. Confidence begins to drop off by the middle of next week with 500 mb clusters divided on whether the ridge remains the dominant feature or if a trough is able to move into the region. There is a 15-20 degree spread in the 10th-90th percentile high temperatures for Wednesday, ranging from the mid 70s to mid 90s. At this lead time and given the uncertainty, the chances for Major HeatRisk reach 10-25% from Salem north to the lower Cowlitz Valley and Portland east through the Columbia Gorge from next Wednesday through Friday. -19/36 && .AVIATION...A trough continues to dig southward toward the region, supporting onshore flow and marine stratus along the coast. MVFR/IFR CIGs are expected to persist along the coast into the afternoon with a chance for cloud cover to break up or clear out late this afternoon. Higher chances for VFR conditions around KONP at 70-80% after 20Z and lower chances around KAST at 40-50%. There is also a 40-50% chance for MVFR CIGs in the eastern Portland Metro between 12-18Z. Stratus quickly rebuilds along the coast this evening along with backbuilding toward the lowlands off the Cascade Foothills after 06-09Z Saturday. Expect MVFR or lower CIGs for all terminals for a period Saturday morning. Light west to northwest winds less than 5 kt through 18Z, then increasing to 6-10 kt for all terminals. Could see a few gusts to around 15-18 kt around the Portland metro after 00Z. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions with a 30-50% chance of MVFR CIGs between 12-18Z. Northwesterly winds around 5 kt, increasing to 7-9 kt after 18z and possible gusts 15-18 kt after 00z Saturday. -19 && .MARINE...A weak cold front will move across the waters on today, ultimately disrupting the high pressure and decreasing winds across the waters. High pressure rebuilds over the coastal waters through the weekend, returning northerly winds later Saturday and increasing pressure gradients on Sunday. Chances for gusts up to 25 kt return Sunday afternoon, mainly across the central and southern waters out to 30-40 nm. Seas are expected to remain around 4 to 6 ft as relatively benign conditions persist through the weekend and into the start of next week. -19/DH && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

663 FXUS66 KMFR 101143 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 443 AM PDT Fri Jul 10 2026 .Updated AVIATION Discussion... && .AVIATION...10/12Z TAFs...LIFR conditions south of Gold Beach and MVFR conditions north of north of Cape Blanco will persist through the morning with gradual lifting and clearing in the afternoon. Then, IFR will redevelop in similar places along the coast this evening around 03z. All other areas will remain VFR through the TAF period. Gusty afternoon and evening winds are expected area wide today, strongest east of the Cascades (gusts 20-30 mph). && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 324 AM PDT Fri Jul 10 2026/ KEY MESSAGES... * Trough approaching the Pacific Northwest today into the weekend resulting in tightening pressure gradients and gusty southwest winds (25-35 mph) through Sunday. Gusty winds combined with low RHs bring a Red Flag Warning for much of Modoc, southeast Klamath and southwest Lake counties (winds strongest/RHs lowest on Saturday). * A thunderstorm risk develops early next week. Best chances on Tuesday, and east of Cascades and across northern California with lesser, but not negligible chances for the West Side. * Currently no signals for sharp warm ups or heat waves. High temperatures hovering around 5 to 7 degrees above normal (mid- upper 90s for West Side Valleys and upper 80s-low 90s for the East Side) through the end of next week. DISCUSSION...Forecast confidence/model agreement is high through Monday. The upper level pattern transitions today as high pressure to the south moves eastward into the Great Basin, then amplifies on Saturday. Meanwhile, relatively strong low pressure off the northern British Columbia Coast digs southward today into Saturday, lingering offshore near Seattle through the weekend. This will turn the flow southwesterly and southwest OR/northern CA will be wedged between these two systems, resulting in tight pressure gradients. This pattern will bring multiple days of strong, gusty winds to the region today through Sunday when gusts of 25 to 35 mph are expected east of the Cascades and across northern California. The air mass in those areas will be more under the ridge influence, while areas west of the Cascades will be more under the trough influence. This will result in much drier air for areas to the east (daytime humidities in the low teens, possibly single digits), and when combined with those 25 to 35 mph gusts, critical fire weather conditions are expected east of the Cascades and across the Modoc starting today and continuing through Sunday, with the strongest winds/lowest RHs expected Saturday. The parent low pressure to the north pushes northeastward on Sunday, but a frontal boundary/energy gets left behind, maintaining tight pressure gradients. Guidance maintains another day of gusty winds (25-30 mph), and although humidities do tick upward some, it will be another day of elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Meanwhile, strong ridging gets nudged eastward with that trough and the flow will turn more south to southwest heading into the early part of next week, bringing us an increasing threat for thunderstorms. There is a potential for thunderstorms that is greater than zero, as early as Sunday afternoon. Convection is expected to be capped by warm air aloft over at least southwest Oregon. Weak instability and an influx of mid-level moisture may produce a few cells from northern California into south central Oregon. Mid and upper level moisture increases Monday, and a shortwave progged to move through the region combined with some weak instability brings the potential for thunderstorms east of the Cascades (east of Highway 97 corridor) Monday afternoon. While this is where most of the guidance agrees on thunder potential, if the shortwave tracks farther west, thunderstorm potential would also shift as well. Tuesday is looking more likely for the better/more widespread chances of thunderstorms. While models disagree on details of the upper level pattern (cut off low along 40N within the EC suite, open trough along 130W-GFS), the general picture remains the same between the two: upper level trough over northeastern Pacific, strong ridge over central CONUS = continued southerly flow over the region. Mid- level moisture will continue to increase Monday night into Tuesday and instability increases Tuesday, especially along/east of the Cascades and along/south of Siskiyous. This will bring a more widespread threat of thunderstorms, potentially reaching as far west as the Rogue Valley. Given the flow aloft should be more southwesterly, this should limit convection potential for areas north and west of Jackson County, but again, details will likely continue to fluctuate, so stay tuned for updates. This seems like a pattern where we likely won`t be confident in location details until the time frame reaches the high resolution models, which won`t capture that until at least Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Model disagreement continues for the latter half of the week. GFS remains the more progressive solution with the open trough while the EC is slower due to the cut off low. The more progressive pattern turns the flow more southwesterly/westerly and would bring more stable conditions for the latter half of the week. Meanwhile, the EC maintains southerly flow, but is less obvious with shortwaves to trigger any convection. Among the entire model suite, there`s about a 30% chance for either scenario, plus another where the cutoff low is farther south but still far enough offshore to lessen thunderstorm chances. There`s a lot of subtle details here that with any shifts in model trends could either decrease or increase thunder potential for the latter half of next week. One positive to this pattern, however, is we don`t currently see any signals for sharp warm ups/heatwaves through the end of next week. Temperatures will hover around 5 to 7 degrees above normal for this time of year, equating to mid-upper 90s for West Side Valleys and upper 80s-low 90s for the East Side. Guidance indicates around a 20% chance of reaching 100 degrees here in Medford through Thursday, increasing to around 30-40% next weekend. Stay tuned for updates regarding thunder potential next week. MARINE...Updated 1200 AM PDT Friday, July 10, 2026...Conditions have generally improved, especially north of Cape Blanco, but winds will remain gusty and seas will remain steep south of Cape Blanco through this evening. North winds will increase again early Sunday into Sunday evening, with steep seas likely returning to areas south of Cape Blanco. Improved conditions are expected to follow on Monday before the thermal trough strengthens again during the latter half of next week. FIRE WEATHER...Updated at 200 AM Friday, July 10, 2026...Elevated to critical fire weather concerns increase today and continue through the weekend, with a Red Flag Warning in place for portions of the East Side and the Modoc Plateau. Strong gusty southwest to west winds (25-35 mph) during the afternoons and evening are expected today through the weekend. Daytime humidities will be in the mid to low teens on Friday. When combined with these gusty winds, critical fire weather conditions are expected across Modoc county and southeastern portions of Fire Weather Zone (FWZ) 624 starting today and continuing through Sunday. Winds will ease overnight and recoveries will be in the good (Saturday morning) to moderate range (Sunday/Monday mornings). Critical fire weather conditions are expected to peak on Saturday when humidities trend lower (low teens/single digits possible), winds increase some (25-40 mph) and these combined conditions are more widespread across the East Side. Conditions improve slightly on Sunday with wind speeds on the lower end of the spectrum and humidities trend ever so slightly higher. Despite this, critical conditions are expected again Sunday afternoon/evening. A potential thunderstorm pattern is shaping up for the first half of next week as the flow becomes south to southwesterly which could send monsoonal moisture into the region. See the discussion above for details/recent thinking on this thunderstorm pattern. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT Sunday for ORZ624. CA...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ285. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ356-376. && $$

257 FXUS66 KEKA 100748 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 1248 AM PDT Fri Jul 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Coastal Stratus and Fog: Marine low clouds and areas of fog will affect the immediate coast, bringing cool daytime temperatures and overnight dampness. * Interior Heat: An upper-level ridge will expand westward, causing temperatures to rise above normal across inland valleys including Lake, Trinity, and interior Mendocino counties through the weekend and into early next week. .SYNOPSIS...Shallow coastal stratus and fog will persist along the immediate coast with limited afternoon clearing through Friday, with areas only slightly further inland than the beaches experiencing periodic afternoon clearing. Inland areas will remain dry and hot under a building upper level ridge. && .DISCUSSION...An upper-level ridge over the Southwest US is expanding westward over Northwest California. Subsidence aloft is compressing the marine layer, keeping it shallow and confined to the coast and adjacent lower valleys overnight to early/mid morning. Inland areas will experience warming, with afternoon high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s becoming widespread across the interior valleys of Trinity, Mendocino, and Lake counties this afternoon. Early next week, the placement of the upper ridge will determine the track of potential monsoonal moisture. Current guidance indicates a continuing warming trend for the interior, with a low probability of thunderstorm development over northeastern Trinity County. && .AVIATION...Flight categories overnight into Friday morning at the coastal terminals will be influenced by subsidence and light southerly winds, likely to reduce flight categories to LIFR. KCEC has a high probability of ceilings less than 1000 feet during the pre dawn hours and within that timeframe it looks as though GFS guidance is suggesting several hours of sub 500ft ceilings, of which there is about a 30% chance of occurrence around 12z-16z. KACV will have similar conditions with light southerly winds turning westerly by dawn. Both terminals improving to MVFR by Friday afternoon. KUKI may have a few intermittent gusts, similar to Thursday`s late afternoon push that only lasted a few hours but VFR mostly expected through Friday. /EYS && .MARINE...The surface pressure gradient between an offshore surface high pressure system and an inland surface thermal low is starting to weaken. South of Cape Mendocino, sustained northwest winds of 20 to 25 knots are generating steep, wind-driven seas. A Gale Warning for the southern outer waters is out but should expire by Friday morning due to diminishing potential gusts up to 40 knots. For the northern outer waters, winds of 20 to 25 knots combined with steep 9-foot waves at short 8-second periods satisfy advisory criteria. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Friday for PZZ415-450. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PDT Friday for PZZ455-470. Gale Warning until 8 AM PDT Friday for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

408 FXUS66 KMTR 101154 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 454 AM PDT Fri Jul 10 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1200 AM PDT Fri Jul 10 2026 - Warmer temperatures continue into next week with Moderate HeatRisk early next week - Long period southwest swell causes an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents through this evening - Coastal Flood Advisory for up to 1.7 feet of inundation above ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways - Potential for thunderstorms and elevated fire weather concerns late this weekend into early next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1200 AM PDT Fri Jul 10 2026 (Today and tonight) Stratus returns tonight with satellite imagery showing it already extending into the SF Bay shoreline and along most of the coastline/Monterey Bay region. The overall stratus footprint is more compressed tonight compared to last night. This is a result of building high pressure over southern California compressing the marine layer (and limiting stratus` inland progression). Yesterday the marine layer was closer to 1500 feet while tonight it is closer to 1000 ft. What does that mean for you? Coastal residents may see patchy drizzle and foggy conditions early this morning before conditions improve heading into the afternoon. For interior residents, stratus coverage will continue to expand overnight but it is not forecast to be as expansive in nature as it was the previous few nights. Temperatures stay fairly seasonal across the interior today with highs in the 80s to low 90s in the hottest locations. For coastal areas, temperatures continue to run cooler than normal with highs in the upper 50s to 60s and in the 70s along the SF Bay shoreline. The interior Central Coast remains the hottest portion of our CWA with highs in the upper 90s to low 100s expected. Minor HeatRisk continues across the interior with Moderate HeatRisk forecast across the higher elevations of the interior Central Coast. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1200 AM PDT Fri Jul 10 2026 (Saturday through Thursday) A warming trend continues this weekend into next week as high pressure builds across the western United States. Upper level high pressure will gradually strengthen and shift northeastward from southern California towards the Intermountain West Saturday into Sunday. Building high pressure aloft will keep the marine layer compressed to around 1000 ft for much of the extended forecast and bring a return of seasonally warm temperatures across the interior. Coastal areas, however, will stay seasonal to seasonally cool thanks to the marine layer not entirely mixing out/remaining compressed along the coastline. Interior high temperatures will be in the 80s to 90s this week with the interior Central Coast and far interior East Bay reaching the low 100s. Coastal areas will stay in the 60s to 70s. Tuesday and Wednesday look to be the warmest days of the week next week as upper level ridging strengthens over the central United States. Given the strength of the upper level ridge, temperatures may be adjusted upwards by a few degrees as we get closer in time. Moderate HeatRisk becomes more widespread Monday through Wednesday across both the higher elevations and more urban areas. Heat products may necessary for portions of the interior early next week. As temperatures heat up, remember to take breaks in the shade and stay hydrated if spending prolonged periods of time outdoors. Thunderstorms remain possible Sunday into Monday but confidence in their development continues to be low. The monsoonal moisture remains on track to arrive overnight Sunday into Monday with instability continuing to be the limiting factor for storm development. Model guidance shows the best 700-500 mb lapse rates (7- 8C/km) Sunday afternoon while the bulk of the monsoonal moisture does not arrive until Monday. Model guidance continues to show minimal MUCAPE across the Central Coast and portions of the Bay Area during this period. The lack of instability would cap storm development and keeps the likelihood of thunderstorms low. That being said, this is considered a low probability, high impact scenario where if a thunderstorm is able to develop, the fire weather threat is high. High resolution models will get within range of this event starting Friday. It will be interesting to see how they are modeling instability with this event and how that influences the thunderstorm potential. Recent ensemble guidance suggests that light rain may be possible with any storms that are able to develop. This is mainly limited to the ECMWF with the GFS ensemble members still showing almost no rainfall. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 434 AM PDT Fri Jul 10 2026 The marine layer has continued to be gradually compressed by building high pressure, so not as widespread with lower ceilings and less predictable than the past few mornings with lighter winds. Most terminals should continue to hover around their current flight category before clearing out by late morning but some amendments are likely. Vicinity of SFO...Stratus has shifted just W/NW of the terminal with clear conditions along the southern Bayshore. A TEMPO group is in the TAF through 16z for MVFR/IFR ceilings. Clearing is expected by mid morning with VFR until late tonight. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR/LIFR ceilings are expected to persist through late morning at least for both terminals and possibly into early afternoon for KMRY. Expect MVFR/IFR ceilings to return by sunset with occasionally breezy onshore winds this afternoon. && .MARINE... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 434 AM PDT Fri Jul 10 2026 Northwest seas will be rough (9-11 ft) through the weekend and begin to subside to moderate (6-8 ft) by the beginning of next week. Strong northwesterly, near gale at times, will begin to diminish tonight with fresh breezes and strong gusts returning Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 450 AM PDT Thu Jul 10 2026 Warmer and drier conditions continue through early next week. This increases fire weather concerns slightly as fuels are forecast to rapidly dry across the interior. Fire weather concerns further increase late this weekend into early next week as a surge of monsoonal moisture from the Gulf of California brings the potential for high based convection to the region. If thunderstorms are able to develop, dry lightning and gusty, erratic outflow winds would be the main hazards. The limiting factor is the lack of instability over our region those days. Thus, we will continue to closely monitor these conditions through the weekend. Given the combination of the potential for dry lightning and rapidly drying fuels, it is important to stay up to date on the forecast as it evolves. This is a low confidence, low probability but potentially high impact scenario. && .BEACHES... Issued at 450 AM PDT Thu Jul 10 2026 A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for Pacific coast beaches through this afternoon. Long period southwesterly swell will create an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents, as well as breaking waves up to 10 feet. This will be especially true for south and southwest facing beaches with moderate to steep slopes along the North Bay, San Francisco Peninsula, and Santa Cruz coasts. Sneaker waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties and beaches. Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion can be expected. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for minor high tide flooding through Thursday July 16th. The combination of a perigean spring tide (lunar perigee on 7/13 and new moon on 7/14) enhanced by 3-6 inches of additional water from thermal expansion and accumulated sea level rise since the tidal datum was established (1983-2001) will bring high tides up to 1.7 feet above normal. This will lead to minor flooding of parking lots, parks and roads with isolated closures expected. For context, in June we reached 2.0 feet above normal and in January we reached 2.5 feet above normal. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through this afternoon for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530. Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506- 508. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM Saturday to 4 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...JM MARINE...JM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

944 FXUS66 KOTX 101159 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 459 AM PDT Fri Jul 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated to critical fire weather conditions through the weekend. - Breezy west winds through the Cascade gaps Friday afternoon and evening. - Breezy south winds become more widespread Saturday afternoon with the strongest winds up the Okanogan Valley. - Warming trend early next week. && .SYNOPSIS... Strong ridging across the west-central CONUS will lead to continued dry weather, breezy winds, and low humidity. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will persist through this weekend, with warm to hot temperatures across the Inland Northwest into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Friday through Sunday: A strong ~599dm ridge building from the Rockies to the central Plains through the weekend as a mid/upper level shortwave slowly pivots and slides from coastal British Columbia to Alberta. This will place a strengthening 500mb jet streak across Washington and southern B.C. over the weekend. Primary concern for sensible weather impacts from this pattern will be the elevated to critical fire weather, with a particular focus on Saturday. The increased rapid drying from the passing shortwave and attendant dry cold front combined with breezy surface winds will lead to critical fire weather conditions across portions of central Washington, with elevated conditions most elsewhere. The Okanogan Valley will be quite susceptible in this regime, as southerly winds will likely channel into the valley and be enhanced by diurnal upvalley effects Saturday afternoon, leading to rapid spread behavior with any new or existing fires. Otherwise, there remains a low (10-15%) chance for a few stray sprinkles across the ID Panhandle and SE Washington Friday night in the front`s warm sector, with a brief increase in PWAT anomalies noted in this region. Can`t completely rule out an elevated thunderstorm here though confidence is even lower, with 12hr probabilities of lightning from the NBM around 5%. Monday through Thursday: Strong monsoonal ridging will remain locked in across the west-central CONUS through most, if not all of next week. During this timeframe several shortwaves will also slide across southern British Columbia from the Pacific. Mostly dry weather will likely continue to prevail, though EC Ensemble indicates PWAT anomalies climbing between these two features to around 125% to 175% across southeastern WA and ID Monday through Wednesday. This could promote increased shower/thunderstorm activity and also a bit more cloud cover in the region. 850mb temps will remain quite high (mid to upper 20s C) so above normal temperatures surface temps will continue, though cloud cover could moderate the overall diurnal range. && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFs: Widespread VFR will persist. With a westerly component to the winds across the region, there is a low chance for wildfire smoke to impact visibilities. Otherwise, breezy winds are expected through the Cascade gaps Friday afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions regionwide. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 91 59 87 59 85 55 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 90 60 86 61 84 58 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 Pullman 87 54 84 54 82 52 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 96 62 94 63 91 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 90 56 86 56 85 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 89 58 86 58 83 55 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 88 58 85 58 82 57 / 0 20 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 92 58 89 58 88 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 91 63 87 62 86 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 92 60 89 59 88 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706). ID...None. && $$

994 FXUS66 KPDT 101007 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 307 AM PDT Fri Jul 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer day today, slight cooling through the weekend. *Heat Advisory Active* - Dry and breezy through Saturday, lower winds next week. - Elevated fire weather concerns through Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Current radar and infrared satellite imagery shows dry conditions under clear skies. This is in response to a building upper level ridge to our southeast, keeping skies clear and conditions dry. Enhancing today`s warming will be a dropping upper level low pressure along the British Columbia coast, that will shift flow aloft from the west to the southwest during the day.These features will allow high temperatures to reach into the low to mid-90s across the Lower Columbia Basin, Blue Mountain foothills, Central Oregon, John Day Basin, and Yakima Valley. Excessive heat is expected through the Hells Canyon area as high pressure dominates from the southeast and advects a more dry, continental airmass across far Eastern Oregon. Daily high temperatures of up to 105 will be possible with widespread moderate HeatRisk (2 out of 4). These conditions have warranted the issuance of a Heat Advisory for the Hells Canyon area below 3000 feet from noon today through 7 PM Sunday. If in this area over the next 72 hours, make sure to stay hydrated and take precautions from the heat. Isolated areas of moderate HeatRisk will be present today over the Basin and foothills, primarily over the Yakima, Hanford, and Walla Walla/Milton Freewater areas. The upper level low offshore will continue to drop near Vancouver Island Saturday before moving inland on Sunday, which will bring slightly cooler conditions across the Columbia Basin coupled with a slight uptick in moisture due to the associated maritime airmass. The approaching upper level low offshore and the building upper level ridge to the southeast will tighten the pressure gradient between these two features. West-northwest winds of 20-25 mph with gusts of around 35 mph are expected across the Columbia Gorge, Southern Blue Mountain foothills, and the Kittitas Valley, with 10-20 mph winds and gusts around 25 mph over the Lower Columbia Basin, Northern Blue Mountain foothills, and the Yakima Valley. These winds are forecast to peak between 5 PM and 8 PM today, as an embedded shortwave moves through the southwest flow aloft. In the wake of its passing, upper level ridging will infiltrate from the southeast to confine these breezy conditions to the Eastern Gorge, Simcoe Highlands, and the Cascade gaps/east slopes on Saturday. The upper level low rides up and over the ridge through Central Canada on Monday to allow the ridge to strengthen across the area and lower winds Sunday onward. The continued presence of the strong high pressure to our southeast keeps conditions dry until Monday/Tuesday (15% chance) as both the ECMWF AI ensembles and GFS AI ensembles advertise a passing shortwave may bring increased moisture across Central and Eastern Oregon - as well as isolated thunderstorm chances. The more widespread winds and low afternoon humidities dropping into the mid-teens elevates fire weather concerns today, primarily between 3 PM and 7 PM across the Eastern Gorge and the Warm Springs areas. Elevated concerns return briefly Saturday across the Yakima Valley, as winds decrease Sunday onward to alleviate these concerns into next week. 75 && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... VFR conditions currently across all sites, which will stay the course through the period. Breezy winds of 10-20kts and gusts of 20-30kts will be possible for KDLS/KPDT/KRDM/KBDN through the day, with winds around 10kts elsewhere. Skies will stay clear, with 25kft few/scattered ceilings late this evening. 75 && .FIRE WEATHER... Most fire weather concern occurs today between 1500 and 1900 across fire weather zones WA691, OR691 and OR703, but stay primarily along the western borders of the WA/OR691 zones and eastern border of OR703. The NBM highlights highest chances of critical humidities and winds being met around the Arlington/Ione areas at a 40-60% chance at 1700. Even more isolated concerns are expected Saturday over the western portion of WA691 between 1700-1900 with a 40-50% chance of occurrence. Conditions will stay dry next week with moderate humidity recoveries between 35-50% across the Columbia Basin, Blue Mountains, and Central Oregon, with afternoon humidities between 15-25% each day. The limiting factor will be the lack of wind due to the upper level high to our southeast dominating the weather pattern. The incoming shortwave Monday and Tuesday may allow for isolated thunderstorms across OR693-700 and OR705 zones, but currently confidence is low (10-15%). 75 && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 90 56 87 58 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 93 62 90 62 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 95 60 92 61 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 94 57 90 58 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 93 60 89 61 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 87 54 83 53 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 89 47 88 53 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 94 55 94 58 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 96 54 96 57 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 88 60 85 59 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM PDT Sunday for ORZ050. && $$ DISCUSSION...75 AVIATION...75 FIRE WEATHER...75

471 FXUS65 KREV 100851 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 151 AM PDT Fri Jul 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Breezy winds overlap with low humidity for today, bringing critical fire weather and recreation concerns. * Increasing temperatures into the weekend will bring areas of Moderate to locally Major HeatRisk for Saturday. * A monsoonal pattern increases potential for showers and thunderstorms throughout next week and next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Our warm-hot temperatures continue this afternoon across the CWA with temperatures expected to top out in the mid-90s across lower valleys and low-80s in the Sierra. Fallon (KNFL) has a 60% chance to reach 100 degrees today, which would be their first 100 degree day this year. Similarly, Lovelock has an 80% chance to reach 100 degrees today, which would be KLOL`s second 100 degree day this year. Aloft, a trough swinging by to our northwest will help increase surface winds across western NV and northeast CA. Because of the heat and low RHs this afternoon, these gusty winds of 30-35 mph will yield 3-7 hours of critical fire weather conditions. More information on our Red Flag Warning down in the Fire Weather Section down below. The real "hot" temperatures don`t come until tomorrow when the high pressure aloft shifts to our east and advects some warmer air into western Nevada. Because of these hot and slightly above average temperatures, we have issued a Heat Advisory for the Nevada Basin and Range Lyon and Mineral county valid for Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. Our typical zephyr breeze picks back up Saturday and we continue to stay dry thanks to the high pressure. Sunday will feature more of the same; more hot and dry conditions across northeast CA and western NV. Due to the position of the high pressure to our east, it`s going to tap into some subtropical moisture and draw it up from the south starting Sunday night. This will be the start of a monsoonal pattern we usually see at least once every summer that brings our CWA around a week or so of showers and thunderstorms. Similar to previous guidance, PWAT values across western NV range from 0.7-0.9" the first half of next week, signifying the potential for heavy rain with any thunderstorms. With this upcoming multi-day event, potential lightning starts from strikes outside of rain cores, flash flooding, and strong gusty outflow winds will all be possible. As of the current time, there remains a great deal of uncertainty in the models with the location and duration of these showers and thunderstorms next week. From what we`re seeing, it looks like the highest probabilities remain south of I-80 in the Sierra and western NV. Even for this Sunday, the east-west positioning of the storms still varies from over the Sierra crest to western Nevada, so still lots to resolve as we get closer in time. -Justin && .AVIATION... VFR conditions continue today with west/southwest gusts 20-30kt. FL100 winds increase to 30-35kt over the Sierra late tonight as surface winds weaken, giving way to some pockets of LLWS and light turbulence over the Sierra. Lighter westerly winds and dry conditions are expected Saturday afternoon. -Justin && .FIRE WEATHER... * Continued dry afternoons prevail into this weekend, with minimum RH values dipping to the single digits for much of western NV (near 5% at times along & east of US-95) and eastern Lassen County, with 10-15% for the eastern Sierra/Tahoe Basin and near the OR border. Overnight humidity recovery will be poor for much of western NV and some midslope/thermal belt regions, with maximum RH values only around 20-30%. * SW-W flow increases over the Sierra this afternoon with 700 mb winds increasing to 25-30 kt. This would increase the potential for afternoon wind gusts pushing into the 30-35 mph range, producing elevated to locally critical conditions across parts of eastern Lassen/northern Washoe counties southward into the western NV Sierra Front. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for today from 2 PM to 9 PM. * The duration of the gusty winds/low RH meeting critical levels for Saturday still looks very isolated, but a few sites could see these conditions occur for more than 3 hours. HRICH/Justin && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening NVZ420-458. Heat Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 8 AM PDT Sunday NVZ001-004. CA...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening CAZ270-278. && $$

940 FXUS66 KSTO 091902 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1202 PM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Near to above-normal temperatures and areas of Moderate HeatRisk today-Monday, with continued onshore flow moderating overnight temperatures. - Breezy southerly winds and marginally low daytime humidity will bring elevated fire weather conditions on Friday. - Potential for monsoonal moisture to bring showers and thunderstorms to the Sierra early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Clear skies once again this early afternoon across interior NorCal. Warmer temperatures are being observed compared to similar times yesterday, as broad ridging has developed across portions of SoCal with zonal heights aloft for NorCal. Triple-digit heat is expected in the northern Sacramento Valley today, with Redding and Red Bluff both forecast to hit 104 this afternoon. Rest of the Valley looks to remain in the 90s. Seasonable high temperatures continue through the weekend and into next week, with mostly Minor HeatRisk and isolated Moderate HeatRisk. By Tuesday, widespread Moderate HeatRisk will develop in the Valley. Southerly wind gusts have slightly increased on Friday, with marginally low daytime humidity in the forecast. That said, elevated fire weather conditions will exist tomorrow afternoon and evening for the Valley and foothills. South wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph will be possible, strongest in the northern Sacramento Valley. Latest forecast trends are keeping a potential push of monsoonal moisture moving into the region by late Sunday night/early Monday morning. High pressure is forecast to move into the Four Corners region, while off-shore troughing develops in the eastern Pacific. Monsoonal moisture will begin moving into the region by late Sunday and introduce mountain thunderstorm chances. What remains uncertain is just how much moisture there will be and how far west will moisture will be. The EFI continues to show QPF Shift of Tails over portions of the Sacramento Valley and northern San Joaquin Valley and adjacent foothills/mountains and the EC shows modest PWAT values nosing into the Valley Sunday night. We will need to see if we will have any shortwave vorticity support from the offshore trough to help instability develop aloft. Those conditions could lead to some elevated thunderstorm potential in lower elevations, but confidence remains low on Valley/foothill t-storms developing at this time. Best chances for thunderstorms remain in the Sierra mainly south of I-80 beginning Monday afternoon continuing through at least Wednesday. We will continue to monitor the trends and hope to have better details as we move into the weekend. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions prevail across interior NorCal next 24 hours. Surface winds from south to southwest around 15 kts with occasional gusts up to 20 kts in Sacramento Valley. Surface winds around 15 kts in northern San Joaquin Valley beginning around 22z today as onshore flow builds. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

858 FXUS65 KMSO 100944 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 344 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Warmest temperatures of the summer this weekend through early next week. Elevated heat risk for those sensitive to heat, especially those without cooling/hydration. - Low relative humidity and increased west winds will result in elevated fire weather concerns on Saturday and Sunday, especially in southwest Montana. - Monsoon moisture surge will bring clouds and showers and thunderstorms by Tuesday. Temperatures will surge on Saturday and remain unseasonably hot into early next week. Valleys across western Montana can expect daytime highs in the 90s, while lower elevation areas like Hells Canyon and the lower Salmon River valleys will likely reach triple digits. Moderate heat impacts for valleys along and east of Highway 93, meaning individuals sensitive to heat may be adversely affected. In addition to the heat, strong upper-level winds combining with low daytime humidity will create near-critical fire weather conditions in southwest Montana and Lemhi County this Saturday and Sunday. For those recreating outdoors this weekend, please prioritize safety: stay consistently hydrated, take frequent breaks in the shade, avoid strenuous activities during peak afternoon heating, and practice extreme caution to prevent any sparks or fire starts in these dry, windy conditions. A surge of moisture moves into the region from the south. This will elevate the risk for showers and thunderstorms across western Montana and north-central Idaho, offering a stark contrast to the dry and windy weekend conditions. Initially, this moisture will arrive in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. Because the air near the surface will still be very dry, the first storms that develop early next week may produce very little rainfall at the ground but will be highly capable of generating strong, erratic outflow winds and lightning. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions with general westerly winds to 10 knots are expected today. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible across Lemhi County into southwest Montana, with any developing storms capable of producing strong, erratic outflow winds gusting between 35 and 45 knots. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...ID...Heat Advisory from noon MDT /11 AM PDT/ Saturday to 9 PM MDT /8 PM PDT/ Sunday for Eastern Lemhi County...Southern Clearwater Mountains...Western Lemhi County. Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Hells Canyon/Salmon River Region. && $$

301 FXUS65 KBOI 101058 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 458 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat Advisory today and Saturday for lower elevations of southwest Idaho and southeast Oregon. - Hot and dry, with breezy afternoon winds through the weekend. - Shower and thunderstorm chances return early next week with the arrival of monsoon moisture. && .SHORT TERM /Through Sunday Night/... Issued 304 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026 Strong high pressure centered over the Desert SW will expand northward today through the weekend, positioning SW Idaho and SE Oregon in southwest flow aloft. Temperatures are expected to heat up in the lower valleys to upper 90s-105 degrees today and Saturday. Relatively warm overnight lows are also anticipated, resulting in minimal relief from heat. A Heat Advisory remains in effect across Weiser Basin, the western Snake Plain, and areas south to the NV border this afternoon through Saturday due to moderate/major Heat Risk levels. Meanwhile, surface winds will become breezy today through the weekend across southeast Oregon and (mainly) the higher terrain of SW Idaho as strengthening mid-level flow mixes to the surface. Temperatures will cool by a couple of degrees Sunday with an influx of high clouds, but heat impacts are expected to continue. && .LONG TERM /Monday through Friday/... Issued 304 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026 Mid/high level moisture and precipitable water values will ramp up Monday and Tuesday as monsoon moisture makes its way north into the region. As a result, shower and thunderstorm chances increase starting Monday afternoon, favoring higher terrain. Initial convection will lean drier and outflow dominant from precedent dry low- levels, but should soon become heavier rain producers Tuesday into Wednesday as PWAT values reach 1.00"+ and low- levels moisten. Shower/thunderstorm chances will expand to most areas by Tuesday, though NBM/WPC guidance still struggles to resolve this transition despite the enhanced coverage in deterministic models. Meanwhile, a broad Pacific trough is forecast to move south along the West Coast Monday and Tuesday, but models disagree on when to bring the trough onshore and push monsoon moisture toward the east. The trough evolution will determine whether showers and thunderstorms continue through the rest of the week/next weekend, or gradually decrease around mid-week. Overall, southerly flow is expected to persist through Friday and support hot temperatures area-wide. && .AVIATION /12Z Friday through Saturday/... Issued 457 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026 VFR. Areas of reduced visibility from wildfire smoke. High density altitude due to heat. Isolated convection over central ID mountains and south-central ID this afternoon. Surface winds: light and variable. Becoming SW-W 10-15 kt with gusts to 20-30 kt over SE Oregon and higher terrain of SW Idaho in the afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 5-15 kt. KBOI...VFR. High density altitude due to heat. Visibility reduced at times by wildfire smoke in foothills NE of KBOI. Surface winds: SE-S 5-10 kt. Weekend Outlook...VFR. Areas of reduced visibility from wildfire smoke. High density altitude due to heat, especially Saturday. Surface winds: SW-NW 5-15 kt Sat/Sun. Afternoon gusts to 20-30 kt across SE Oregon and (mainly) the higher terrain of SW Idaho. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM MDT Saturday for IDZ012- 014>016-030-033. OR...Heat Advisory from noon MDT /11 AM PDT/ today to 9 PM MDT /8 PM PDT/ Saturday for ORZ064. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....SH SHORT TERM...SH LONG TERM....SH

222 FXUS65 KLKN 100706 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1206 AM PDT Fri Jul 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses each afternoon from Friday through Sunday as highs soar into the upper 90s to low 100s * Hot, dry, windy conditions possible in central NV leading to elevated fire weather conditions * Increasing monsoonal moisture will increase potential for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms next week && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Friday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Temperatures increase today to kick off what will likely be the warmest few days so far this year, with highs in the upper 90s into triple digits. Overnight lows will provide some relief, with temperatures in the upper 50s to 60s, but heat advisories have been issued across much of the forecast area this weekend. Several record highs are also at risk, with Elko, Eureka and Ely all forecast to approach or tie their current record on Saturday. The heat is also expected to increase fire weather concerns, especially when combined with elevated winds around 30 mph on Saturday. The extreme heat is generally expected to break for Monday but temperatures will continue to be above average, with highs in the mid to upper 90s through the end of the forecast period. Also starting Monday, an upper level high pressure center will facilitate a monsoonal moisture push that is expected to form scattered showers and afternoon thunderstorms. Showers are expected to continue as long as the monsoon flow continues. At this time monsoonal flow is anticipated to persist through the end of the forecast, but the high will need to be watched to see when it breaks down. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in extreme heat Friday through Sunday. High confidence in continued above average temperatures Monday and beyond. Moderate confidence on monsoon moisture and storm potential but low confidence in spatial and temporal coverage of said storms. Winds were increased by about 5 mph for Saturday to better reflect potential fire weather conditions. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions and light winds expected through the next 24 hours. Precipitation is not forecasted for any terminals through Friday afternoon. AMD NOT SKED continues for KEKO due to communications issues. && .FIRE WEATHER... Extreme heat is expected through Monday with single digit RH values. Confidence is increasing that critical thresholds will be reached in central Nevada on Saturday as winds increase to gust 30-35 mph. Monsoonal moisture flow is indicated to begin on Monday, which will need to be monitored for initial dry thunderstorm potential, as well as general thunder and potential wetting rain impacts. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Heat Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 11 PM PDT Sunday NVZ031-034-035-038-039. Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT Monday NVZ033. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday NVZ036-037-040-041. && $$ DISCUSSION...94 AVIATION...99 FIRE WEATHER...94