669 FXUS66 KSEW 012118 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 218 PM PDT Wed Oct 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS...An unstable air mass associated with an upper level low pressure off the coast will lead to showers and isolated thunderstorms today. A weakening trough over the region will keep conditions unsettled through Thursday. A trend toward drier weather will begin over the weekend as a ridge of high pressure aloft builds offshore. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...An upper level low will continue to spin offshore into Thursday with bands of showers rotating around it into Western Washington. The low will gradually weaken with time and shower coverage will wane later tonight into Thursday. The low will fill and eventually move onshore over Oregon Thursday night. Mostly dry conditions are expected on Friday with temperatures returning to around seasonal norms. High amplitude ridging starts to build well offshore around 145W on Saturday while broad upper troughing takes up residence over the Northern Rockies. A weak disturbance diving southward through British Columbia may clip the region on Saturday, but chances of any precipitation of note look minimal. .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...By the early portion of next week, the offshore mean ridge position is expected to gradually progress closer to around 135W and exert a greater influence on the region. Ensembles continue to struggle somewhat with the development of a possible Rex Block pattern over the Western US by Tuesday. Nonetheless, an upper ridge is expected to become the dominant player for Western Washington for the first half of next week with a period of offshore flow nudging temperatures closer to or a little above normal for early October. 27 && .AVIATION...Southwest flow aloft will continue into Thursday as an upper level low offshore moves towards Western Washington. VFR cigs this afternoon for the majority of the area, with lingering MVFR cigs along the coast and in heavier showers. VFR conditions will continue for most areas through this evening, with cigs lowering to MVFR tonight into Thursday morning for the coast. Showers will continue into tonight, particularly for the Olympic Peninsula overnight. In addition, there remains a 15 to 25% chance of thunderstorms through this evening embedded within any heavier shower, with thunderstorm chances mainly confined to the coast tonight into early Thursday. Southerly winds will remain breezy at times near the water through tonight, before slowly tapering Thursday afternoon. KSEA...VFR conditions this afternoon with continued mid clouds. Periodic showers will continue into this evening (primarily through 03z) before predominantly drier conditions tonight. Will need to continue to monitor any thunderstorm with a heavier shower, but confidence remains low in this occurring. Otherwise, VFR conditions with mid clouds are expected into Thursday morning. MVFR probabilities Thursday morning remain low, peaking at 15%. South winds into Thursday, with occasional gusts near 20 kts this afternoon. JD && .MARINE...Southerly winds will continue to remain elevated through tonight with a weather system situated offshore. Gales will continue at times for the Coastal Waters, as well as the eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca and northern inland waters through tonight. SCA wind gusts at times elsewhere. Winds will slowly dissipate throughout the day on Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued following the gales on Thursday for the Coast, as well as portions of the interior waters as winds slowly subside. The aforementioned frontal system will weaken later Thursday into Friday, resulting in lighter winds late in the week. Winds look to transition more northerly later in the weekend into early next week. There also remains a 15 to 25% chance of thunderstorms into Thursday, especially for the Coastal Waters. Showers and thunderstorms may be accompanied by stronger winds and small hail over the Coastal Waters. Combined seas of 15 to 20 feet will continue through this evening. Seas will slowly subside below 15 feet Thursday morning, and further subside below 10 feet by Thursday evening. Seas of 4 to 6 feet are expected Friday into the weekend. JD && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...High Surf Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for Grays Harbor County Coast-Northern Washington Coast. Wind Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for Island County. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Thursday for Grays Harbor Bar. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for Admiralty Inlet- Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Puget Sound and Hood Canal-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Gale Warning until 5 AM PDT Thursday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm- Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 2 PM PDT Thursday for East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM PDT Thursday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. && $$

345 FXUS66 KPQR 012100 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 200 PM PDT Wed Oct 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Conditions will remain cool and showery through Thursday as a low pressure system currently centered around 250 miles west of Vancouver Island slowly moves southward and weakens. Friday and Saturday will be seasonable with mainly dry conditions aside from a few stray showers. Low-level offshore flow develops Sunday and continues into early next week, bringing an extended period of dry weather with high temperatures in the 70s for most inland valley locations. && .DISCUSSION...Now through Tuesday night...Radar, satellite and surface weather observations from early Wednesday afternoon depicted a band of light to moderate rain extending across the Willamette Valley, Columbia River Gorge, and Cascades. This band of rain was occurring along an occluded front that extended from a vertically-stacked closed low pressure system centered around 250 miles west of Vancouver Island. Models are in general agreement this low will gradually shift southward over the coastal waters through Friday morning while weakening simultaneously. Until then, scattered rain showers will remain in the area. Showers will be most prevalent during the afternoon and evening hours Wednesday and Thursday, with most showers dissipating during the overnight hours. The strongest afternoon showers will have the potential to produce a flash or two of lightning with brief gusty outflow winds and/or small hail under the size of peas. That said, the probability for thunderstorms at any given location is very low at 5-15%. The vast majority of the area will not observe thunderstorms. From Friday afternoon onward, the forecast is trending mainly dry with northerly flow aloft. In addition, temperatures will become noticeably warmer Sunday through Tuesday as low-level offshore develops. Models and their ensembles depict minimal temperature spread, suggesting confidence is high the warmer temperatures will materialize. The NBM continues to suggest widespread highs in the 70s across inland valleys on all three days, warmest on Tuesday when highs are expected to rise into the mid to upper 70s. The only other thing worth mentioning is overnight lows in the Upper Hood River Valley near the Parkdale area. This area will likely see morning lows near 40 degrees Thursday morning and upper 30s Friday morning. Cannot completely rule out patchy frost Friday morning given the clear skies and light winds in place, however the probability for this to occur is at 20-40%. Probabilities drop to near 0% in Odell and Hood River. Given the marginal temperatures in place and the fact that temperatures will most likely stay above 36-37 degrees, have decided not to issue a Frost Advisory for this zone. -TK && .AVIATION...A frontal rain band extends across much of the Willamette Valley to begin the period, with largely VFR vis/cigs observed and brief reductions to MVFR levels possible before the band exits eastward by 20z Wed and is replaced by a more showery distribution of rain through this evening. Isolated thunderstorms remain possible across much of the region, but confidence in their occurrence has fallen below thresholds for PROB30 mention at all sites except KAST; amendments will be issued as necessary for any thunder that does develop. Southerly to southeasterly winds continue at 5-10 kt inland and around 15 kt gusting to 20-30 kt along the coast. Winds will ease as showers dissipate late this evening, after 03-06z Thu. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions to persist through the period as the frontal rain band transitions to scattered rain showers after 20z Wed. MVFR cigs/vis are most likely during the frontal passage, with other brief reductions possible but low confidence in showers behind the boundary. Isolated thunder also remains possible, most likely from 21z Wed through 03z Thu, but confidence is low in timing and occurrence. Southerly to southeasterly winds continue at 5-10 kt. -Picard && .MARINE...A deep area of surface low pressure will linger west of Vancouver Island, steadily weakening in place before moving inland Friday into Friday night. The pressure gradient across the waters will therefore slowly slacken through the workweek, allowing winds to ease through the period. Gale Warnings remain in effect this afternoon across the inner waters from Florence north to Cape Shoalwater, as well as the outer waters north of Cape Falcon, and will continue into this evening before wind gusts fall below gale-force. Seas also remain elevated with buoy observations of 15-18 ft across the waters. As winds ease, seas will similarly subside, finally falling below 10 ft by Thursday afternoon to evening. A Hazardous Seas Warning will therefore be in effect until Thursday morning, followed by a Small Craft Advisory until hazardous rough seas and gusty winds end Thursday afternoon. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will continue to pose an additional threat today, and less so on Thursday. Isolated storms will be capable of producing severely limited visibility, gusty and erratic winds, lightning, small hail, and even an isolated water spout in their local area. As a more seasonable pattern of offshore high pressure rebuilds late in the week and through the weekend, winds will turn back out of the north. -Picard && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Hazardous Seas Warning until 8 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ210-272- 273. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 5 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ210- 251>253-271>273. Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ251>253. Hazardous Seas Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ251>253. Gale Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for PZZ271. Hazardous Seas Warning from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ271. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

664 FXUS66 KMFR 020001 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 501 PM PDT Wed Oct 1 2025 .DISCUSSION...Updated Aviation Discussion... && .AVIATION...(02/00Z TAFs)...MVFR to IFR conditions are present along the coast with IFR/LIFR ceilings near Brookings. Afternoon breezy conditions are expected to weaken through the evening. There are still showers passing through this evening and fluctuating ceilings will continue. These showers will mostly be found in Northern California and near and east of the Cascades. Overall VFR conditions will be found inland with showers on and off through the TAF period. There is still lower confidence on how the marine stratus will act near the Coos County coast tonight, so the next TAF period will have more details on this area. -Hermansen && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 236 PM PDT Wed Oct 1 2025/ DISCUSSION (Today through Tuesday)... Overview: Rounds of isolated showers are expected through today, tomorrow, and to a lesser extent on Friday. These chances are closely tied to an upper level system that will essentially park around Vancouver Island through this stretch providing upper level support. Temperatures will generally be cooler through this stretch compared to normal values, and we may need to consider frost/freeze products for the eastside later this week. Sunday into early next week we will see temperatures trend upwards near normal, but still expecting cold nights on the eastside. A dry stretch looks to start Friday and continue through at least early next week. Further Details: Water vapor imagery depicts a strong closed low off shore from Vancouver Island. The placement of the low is ejecting PVA over the forecast area, and the combination of moisture advection and lift/energy aloft will produce isolated showers across the area as this low remains parked in this generally vicinity for the next couple of days. This will produce light rainfall under isolated showers these next two days. Not expecting much--if any--lightning but we could see very isolated strikes Thursday afternoon. By Friday, this low will start to push onshore and start to develop into a long wave trough consuming much of the CONUS by Sunday. Showers activity is expected to lessen much on Friday with chances confined to east/southeastern portions of the forecast area as dynamics shift eastward. In fact, wouldn`t be surprised if these PoPs on Friday get lowered or were removed completely from the NBM on future runs. Barring any changes, conditions are expected to turn dry Friday with precipitation chances ending. These conditions will likely continue into early to middle of next week. The one caveat is Monday when a low slides down from Canada. Models vary on the placement of this low which will have some impact across the region as to where precipitation will end up being. For example, there are stark differences between the GFS and European models on the placement and evolution of this low. That said, nearly all ensemble members are indicating dry conditions, so confidence is high we will remain dry this weekend and early next week. -Guerrero MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Wednesday, October 1, 2025...The main change was to shorten the current Small Craft Advisory to expire during Thursday evening rather than early Friday morning. Currently, south winds are diminishing, but high and steep swell dominated seas will remain near a 12 to 15 ft at 13 seconds peak through tonight. Seas then gradually diminish beginning Thursday, but remain steep through Thursday evening. Seas continue to diminish but the dominant wave period also decreases Friday into early Saturday. With the development of a thermal trough, north winds near or above advisory strength and steep seas are likely Saturday into Sunday night. -DW && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$

636 FXUS66 KEKA 012126 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 226 PM PDT Wed Oct 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS...A moderate mid period northwest swell will continue to bring a risk for hazardous conditions to area beaches through Thursday. Otherwise, isolated to scattered showers are expected tonight and Thursday before winding down on Friday. Dry weather is forecast for this weekend and early next week. && .DISCUSSION...Most of the precip today has been light and scattered across mostly interior Mendocino, Lake and Trinity. Wavy boundary noted on radar offshore may generate spotty light rain this afternoon for Del Norte and Humboldt. Otherwise, CAMS and global models are consistent with reduced precip potential tonight. South and southwesterly upslope flow into the terrain may yield a few hundredths or sprinkles through the night, however. Upper trough centered offshore NW of Washington will dig southward tonight through Thursday, eventually moving over the forecast area Thu night into early Friday. Cold air aloft, 500mb temps near -20C, will lead to steeper lapse rates. Greater and perhaps deeper shower activity is expected on Thursday compared to today. CAMS indicates the bulk of activity over the interior forced by terrain. Spotty light precip is expected to continue into Thu night with low level westerly flow into the terrain. Overall not much widespread rain is anticipated, but there are few HREF members that indicate isolated heavier amounts around the periphery of Trinity, Mendocino and Lake. Upper trough will progress into the Great Basin on Friday, leaving our forecast area under drier and more stable conditions. Some light showers in the wrap around will be possible along the eastern periphery of southern Trinity, eastern Mendo, northern Lake and perhaps over the Alps. Otherwise dry weather is expected Friday through the weekend. Gusty and potentially strong northerlies are expected for the coastal waters and coastal high terrain by Sun. Drying offshore will yield clearer skies, especially for coastal areas over the weekend. Fog and low clouds in the interior valleys remain a distinct possiblility after multiple days of rain. If skies remains clear all night, frost or freezing temperatures in the colder valleys will be possible. Much greater forecast uncertainty crops up early next week with offshore wind flow diminishing. A southerly wind reversal may develop. This would likely result in coastal stratus and fog. Otherwise dry weather expected into mid next week. && .AVIATION...(18zTAFs)...Generally, cloud cover will continue for the region through the TAF period. As the day progresses, more terminals will have VFR to MVFR ceilings. A weak front moving into the North Coast will bring IFR ceilings this afternoon/evening which are already being observed in KCEC. There still could be some light rain today along with some lingering showers. Widespread IFR to LIFR conditions are forecast for coastal terminals by late this evening with MVFR ceilings more likely for inland terminals. && .MARINE...Lingering showers and gusts over 20 kts continue to dwindle behind the cold front. A mid period swell continues to quickly build over 12 feet and return steep sea conditions to all waters. Otherwise, winds will be mostly gentle Wednesday. Just in time for the swell to decay on Thursday, moderate, northerly winds will build across the area, especially in the southern waters where near gale force conditions are most likely just downwind of Cape Mendocino. Strong northerly winds will spread northward late on Friday with steep short period seas in all waters heading into the weekend. /JHW && .BEACH HAZARDS...A steep, mid period northwest swell may bring some hazardous conditions to area beaches during the day Wednesday and Thursday. While the swell will only be around 14 feet at 14 seconds (producing a beach run up no more than about 18 feet), this will be one of the first swells of the season. This means most area beaches have a steeper grade that has formed over the summer, which may make waves especially dangerous and unexpected. Take extra care if on local beaches this week. /JHW && .FIRE WEATHER...High humidity, breezy winds with periods of rain expected into Thursday. Drier conditions with lower daytime humidity is expected to build this weekend and persist into early next week. Potential for locally gusty north and northeast winds will increase over the weekend. Much more variable conditions are probable early next week with signs of southerly wind reversal developing for coastal areas. ERC`s increase during the weekend into early next week but remain well below average. North OPS GACC significant fire potential outlook remains keeps our forecast area in the little to no risk category except along the edges with the Sacramento Valley. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday afternoon for CAZ101-103-104. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ450-455- 470-475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

294 FXUS66 KMTR 012352 AAA AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service San Francisco CA Issued by National Weather Service Eureka CA 452 PM PDT Wed Oct 1 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 115 PM PDT Wed Oct 1 2025 - Light beneficial rain at times through Thursday. - Warming and drying trend Friday and Saturday with gusty northwest winds. && .UPDATE... Issued at 440 PM PDT Wed Oct 1 2025 Aviation section update. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 115 PM PDT Wed Oct 1 2025 (This evening through Thursday) A deep low pressure system, currently centered just west of Vancouver Island will move little through Thursday, before quickly dipping southward and through northern California Friday into Saturday. A band or two of light showers will move through the region through Thursday, with minimal impacts. The one caveat being in unlikely but non-zero chance of a thunderstorm or two, especially on the back edge of either band, which could result in a brief heavy downpour or gusty winds. Cooler air behind these fronts will bring a slight cooling trend each day. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 115 PM PDT Wed Oct 1 2025 (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Northwest winds will accelerate quickly Friday and Saturday as the frontal bands move through and the core of the low approaches. A few Wind Advisories may be needed. The cooling trend will continue. Meanwhile higher surface pressure will build over the northern Rockies through the weekend. The gradient across the pressure field will support some northerly, offshore wind from Saturday - Monday. Typically these winds pose a fire weather concern. Fortunately the antecedent conditions and wind strength are mitigating factors. The PGE-WRF ensemble shows the SFO-WMC gradient bottoming out around -2 to -6 mb. Enough for offshore winds, but not a particularly strong event. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 440 PM PDT Wed Oct 1 2025 Itll be a mix of IFR/MVFR ceilings and visibilities tonight through Thursday morning. Scattered showers will continue across the forecast area with a slow moving frontal boundary. Conditions gradually improving to VFR by late Thursday morning and afternoon. Vicinity of SFO...VFR-MVFR with west to northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR-MVFR lowering to IFR conditions tonight and Thursday morning. A few showers are expected through the period. Conditions improving to MVFR-VFR by late Thursday morning and afternoon. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 115 PM PDT Wed Oct 1 2025 Small Craft Advisory level northwesterly seas around 10 feet will continue into Thursday morning. Northwest winds will increase quickly Thursday afternoon through Friday with steep seas. Local Gales are possible, especially south of Monterey. Light off and on again showers are possible into Thursday. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Thursday to 9 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Thursday to 9 AM PDT Friday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...RK LONG TERM....RK/Flynn AVIATION...RC MARINE...RK Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

281 FXUS66 KOTX 012249 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 349 PM PDT Wed Oct 1 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unsettled weather pattern through Thursday with breezy south/southwest winds and multiple chances for showers. - Dry with overnight lows falling into the 30s and low 40s Thursday onward. && .SYNOPSIS... A cooler and wetter pattern persists through the week with temperatures near seasonal normals and multiple chances for showers. Drier conditions expected over the weekend into early next week with chilly overnight lows and areas of frost. && .DISCUSSION... Today (Wednesday) and Thursday: An area of low pressure sitting west of Vancouver Island will continue to direct moisture into the region bringing intermittent chances for showers and isolated mountain thunderstorms. With CAPE values looking rather unimpressive in the 100-200 J/kg range, any thunderstorms that develop will be weak and short-lived. Breezy south/southwest winds will persist through this evening over the Columbia Basin and Okanogan Valley with gusts of 20 to 25 mph, then will subside overnight into tomorrow. Chances (30 to 50%) for showers continue through Thursday primarily over the Cascades, southeastern WA, northern mountains, and ID panhandle, then we shift into a drier northerly flow regime Friday into early next week as the offshore low moves inland over northern California and Nevada. Friday through Wednesday: A ridge of high pressure amplifying in the Gulf of Alaska will place the Inland Northwest in an area of dry northerly flow, bringing clear skies and decreased precipitable water values. Afternoon high temperatures will stay fairly consistent in the mid to upper 60s through Monday, then will warm a few degrees into the low to mid 70s Tuesday and Wednesday. Overnight low temperatures however will get noticeably colder without a blanket of cloud cover and moisture in the atmosphere to insulate the surface. Lows in the 30s and low 40s are expected across much of the region Thursday night onward. Sunday night is looking like the coldest night of the forecast period with widespread lows in the 30s and some of the sheltered northern valleys falling into the mid to upper 20s. Cooler temperatures will be beneficial for slowing down regional fires. A shortwave dropping down from the north will graze across the northeastern portion of the region Saturday briefly bringing potential for showers to north ID, then dry conditions are forecast through at least mid-next week. /RF && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through the period. Showers will continue to track across eastern WA and north ID and may impact TAF sites at times through 06Z. Showers expected to linger through the night over the southeastern portion of the region impacting PUW into early Thursday morning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of showers through the early evening come with moderate to low confidence and TAF amendments are likely. High confidence of VFR conditions through the period. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 48 64 44 67 42 67 / 50 20 10 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 48 64 45 67 42 66 / 70 30 10 0 0 10 Pullman 46 61 43 62 39 61 / 70 40 30 10 0 10 Lewiston 54 67 53 68 47 67 / 70 40 40 10 0 10 Colville 36 63 32 69 32 66 / 60 20 10 0 0 0 Sandpoint 47 62 45 66 43 64 / 80 50 20 0 0 10 Kellogg 48 62 48 64 44 61 / 80 40 30 10 10 20 Moses Lake 45 65 40 70 42 70 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 46 64 45 70 48 69 / 30 10 0 0 0 0 Omak 45 67 44 70 43 71 / 40 10 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

800 FXUS66 KPDT 020008 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 508 PM PDT Wed Oct 1 2025 Updated Aviation Discussion .AVIATION...00Z TAFs...Mostly VFR conditions to prevail through the period. A system moving through the area will continue to bring rain shower impacts to sites PDT/ALW/RDM/BDN/YKM into early this evening, with a low chance (10-15%) of thunderstorms impacting sites PDT/ALW this afternoon and evening. Low chance (<25%) of showers being strong enough to produce reductions in vsby to mvfr or lower. Dry conditions will return overnight, with chances of showers (20-50%) increasing after 17Z at sites PDT/ALW/PSC, and after 20Z at sites RDM/BDN. Winds will be light, 12kts or less, at all sites...exception will be the potential for strong, variable gusts from thunderstorms impacting sites this afternoon and evening. Lawhorn/82 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 153 PM PDT Wed Oct 1 2025/ .DISCUSSION...A line of showers embedded with isolated areas of heavy rain continues to push to the east. Shower and rain chances will increase going through the day, with highest chances in the late afternoon. Increasing lapse rates coupled with vorticity will help lift some showers to potentially produce some thunder. Guidance shows the greatest area of thunderstorm coverage in parts of the Eastern Mountains and the Foothills of the Southern Blue Mountains. Greatest chance for some wetting rains (30-50% chance) will be secluded to the Cascades/Blue Mountains. Basin areas will receive less rain going through the day. We`ll see a dry period overnight for most of the region, but will see precip emerge into the late morning/early afternoon Thursday. Looking ahead, temperatures will stay near normal for the most part. Highs will be no higher than the low 70s for much of the region, with mid to high 60s for the higher populated areas. Low temperatures over the weekend in Central OR through the Wallowa`s are forecasted to be near/at freezing. Very possible we`ll get our season ending freeze for parts of the Wallowa`s and Central OR once the weekend is over (55-65% chance). Will need to keep an eye on cloud cover and wind trends, as that will effect temperature guidance. Temperatures will be pleasant otherwise with Fall conditions starting to take effect. For precip, a the trough will continue to push east with the oncoming ridge taking more influence in the forecast. Dry pattern will resume over the weekend with small potential for fire weather concerns in the Kittitas/Ellensburg area albeit very limited. After the trough pushes off to the east, guidance is in agreement that a shortwave will extend down early next week, bringing possible mountain showers. Disagreement with the GFS/Euro stems with how far they want to extend the shortwave, with the GFS extending the shortwave that allows for greater chances of mountain showers. Some uncertainty that needs to be worked out as we head into the weekend, but plenty of time to monitor for changes in the forecast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 49 63 45 67 / 50 50 30 10 ALW 52 64 49 67 / 60 50 40 10 PSC 49 65 43 70 / 30 20 10 0 YKM 42 66 41 71 / 10 10 0 0 HRI 49 64 45 70 / 40 30 20 0 ELN 37 64 38 67 / 20 10 0 0 RDM 39 62 36 63 / 20 40 20 0 LGD 45 66 46 62 / 60 50 50 20 GCD 44 66 45 62 / 30 30 40 10 DLS 50 69 48 72 / 30 20 10 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...95 AVIATION...82

111 FXUS65 KREV 011948 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1248 PM PDT Wed Oct 1 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Temperatures remain below average through the upcoming week, with Friday being the coldest day. * The best chances for showers and thunderstorms arrive Thursday afternoon through Friday as low pressure drops into the region. * Drier and cool conditions prevail this weekend into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Periods of light showers will continue through the rest of the afternoon as we remain at the edge of the storm track. One or two stray thunderstorms may develop in the Sierra this afternoon. Breezy afternoon winds return, but then those should decrease in most valley areas, except on mountain ridges were those breezes continue. Another upper level trough descends into the region tomorrow and brings back widespread chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms. This activity will be moving relatively fast as winds in the 500 mb layer are going to be moving at 30-50 kts and around 15-30kts at the 700 mb layer. Therefore, expect mainly locally heavy rain where storms end up training. Otherwise, the storms should move fast. Anyway, there is a marginal risk (5-15% chance) of excessive rain by WPC. Other hazards with this activity will be occasional lightning, small hail and gusty outflow winds in excess of 40 mph. CAMs are indicating the convection will be mainly over the Tahoe Basin and, NV Basin and Range where multiple bands of rain/storms are expected starting tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night. By Friday, temperatures will drop as the backside of the system brings colder air behind the associated cold front. Drier conditions start by Friday afternoon, but temperatures will not improve much through the rest of the weekend. Temperatures will gradually warm up early next week, but will remain below normal. That being said there is yet another upper level low system affecting the region Monday into Tuesday. However, there is uncertainty about how deep this next trough will be and how much precipitation it will bring to the area. -HC && .AVIATION... Generally VFR conditions continue through tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon. The exceptions will be near SHRA and -TSRA where CIGS and VIS could drop to MVFR or IFR with the strongest activity. The strongest storms are likely tomorrow after 18Z. Storms appear to continue into the overnight hours. Low level cloud decks leading to mountain obscurations in the Sierra continue through tomorrow. Winds increase this afternoon, but will be lighter than the last few days at terminals. Winds decrease in the valleys overnight. However, minor turbulence and LLWS will persist through tomorrow. -HC && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$

959 FXUS66 KSTO 012020 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 120 PM PDT Wed Oct 1 2025 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .SYNOPSIS... Cooler, unsettled weather through Friday, with chances for isolated thunderstorms Thursday into Friday. Drier and warmer conditions heading into the weekend with chances for breezy northerly winds. && .KEY MESSAGES... * TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY: - Low pressure continues its trek through the area today, bringing chances this afternoon and evening for areas of wetting rain. Highest totals will still be over the mountains. - Scattered showers will linger in the northern Sacramento Valley and in the mountains through the evening and into Thursday morning, with a general drying trend elsewhere in the Valley starting this the afternoon. - Chances for isolated thunderstorms return Thursday and Friday afternoons and evenings (generally 10-25%, with highest chances in the northern and central Sacramento Valley, and along the Sierra Crest south of I-80), with non-zero chances for overnight convection in the central Sacramento Valley Thursday into Friday. * SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: - Warming trend begins on Saturday with temperatures returning to near normal through mid-next week. - Breezy north to east winds expected periodically Friday through Sunday, strongest on Sunday. Overall, wind gusts have continued to trend down in the forecast over the weekend. .AVIATION... VFR to MVFR conditions in the Sac Valley due to frontal system moving through this afternoon. Showers will continue periodically in the northern Sacramento Valley this afternoon, with ceilings returning to VFR heights around 22Z Wednesday. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected to prevail across interior NorCal over the next 24 hours. Onshore flow expected to continue, with gusts up to 25 kts in the Sacramento Valley through 01z Thursday. Elsewhere, winds remain at or below 12 kts. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

401 FXUS65 KMSO 011843 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1243 PM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Breezy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms today. - Cool and unsettled pattern persists. More precipitation, and colder, this weekend. - Significant early-season mountain snow possible late Saturday into Sunday with even colder temperatures to follow. A broad upper-level trough off the PacNW coast will maintain a cool, unstable southwest flow across western Montana and north- central Idaho into the late-week. Embedded shortwaves rotating through the trough will trigger intermittent showers and isolated thunderstorms, particularly during peak daytime heating in the afternoon and early evening. The main threats from any stronger storms this afternoon will be briefly heavy rainfall, and hail up to 3/4" in size. An approaching upper-level jet streak will increase winds aloft this afternoon and evening, resulting in breezy winds at the surface. Widespread southwesterly gusts up to 20 mph are expected, with localized gusts to 30 mph possible (60% chance) along ridgetops near the Continental Divide and across southwest Montana, the Bitterroots, and Idaho/Lemhi Counties. The upper-level pattern evolves this weekend as the broad trough begins to cut off and drop southward into the Great Basin. Recent trends in model guidance now favor a track northward out of the Great Basin and into Wyoming by the weekend as the cut off low attempts to rejoin the prevailing westerlies. This will likely coincide with a plume of maritime moisture and an uptick in persistence, and amounts, of precipitation across Southwest Montana and Lemhi County. Initially, snow levels will remain high, near 7,000ft. Confidence remains moderately high in a secondary, colder trough digging south from Canada Saturday into Sunday accompanied by a deep pool of cold air sliding southward along and east of the Continental Divide. Snow levels under this scenario would likely lower to near 5000 feet in this area by Sunday morning. Probabilistic guidance derived from the NBM indicates about a 40% chance of at least 1 inch of snow, and about a 10% chance for 6 inches or more for elevations above 6,000 ft in Glacier National Park. High-elevation and backcountry users should prepare for cold, wet, and windy conditions this weekend with increased risk for hypothermia and frostbite. Going-to-the-Sun Road, and other high-elevation forest service roads, may become snow or slush covered making travel potentially difficult/hazardous at times through the weekend. && .AVIATION...Lower mid-level broken cloud cover is expected to remain through the afternoon and evening with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms with brief heavy rain and potential for hail. Lowered ceilings and terrain obscurations becoming increasingly widespread through the rest of the day. Southwesterly winds gusting to 20 knots at times during the afternoon, especially near KSMN/KBTM, and ridgetops gusting to 30 knots. Another chance for low-stratus and fog into the overnight and early morning hours tomorrow. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

863 FXUS65 KBOI 012052 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 252 PM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night...Light rain showers are occurring over the Owyhee Mountains this afternoon, with increasing clouds thanks to moist southwest flow over the region. Temperatures will continue to cool through the rest of the week, with another push of cold air thanks to a deep upper level low off the coast of British Columbia. This low will deepen over the West Coast, sending a cold front through the Intermountain West tomorrow afternoon. This will bring widespread rainfall, with a band of particularly heavy precipitation lingering from the Owyhee Mountains up through the West Central Mountains. This band looks to persist through Friday morning as the low deepens to our south. Rainfall totals by Friday afternoon will range from 0.25 to 0.50 with showers outside of the band with up to an additional 1.5 inches of rain inside the heavier band of precipitation. This additional heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding to area burn scars and steep and rocky terrain, so we have issued a flash flood watch for the Boise Mountain and West Central Mountains. Instability remains limited over much of the area, but there is a 10-20% chance of thunderstorms with the initial cold frontal passage tomorrow afternoon. Much cooler temperatures along with breezy westerly winds will continue through the Friday evening, with clearing over southeast Oregon by Friday afternoon. Southwest Idaho will see lingering showers over high terrain through early Saturday morning. .LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday... Strong northwesterly winds will follow the trough that brought us the weather in the short-term. A notable surface pressure gradient combined with low- level flow roughly oriented with the Snake Plain, so have opted to blend in a little bit of the NBM 90th percentile winds Saturday afternoon/evening. This will allow for wind gusts of 25-35 mph throughout the Snake Plain, with isolated gusts of 40 mph. Winds will remain breezy on Sunday, although lower than Saturday. The evolution of the upper-level flow will feature a shortwave crossing over our area Late Saturday into Sunday, before breaking off in a low over California. The initial passage of the shortwave will allow for a 15-35% chance of precipitation across the Central Idaho Mountains. With snow levels to dropping to 6500-7500 ft, this will allow for some snow/wintery mix on the highest peaks (although little to no accumulation is expected). Beyond Saturday, our forecast is looking to be mostly dry as the ensemble consensus shows a Rex Block sets in with a ridge building north/northwest of the California Low. While we are not in the favorable location to receive precipitation from the California low, isolated showers can`t be ruled out. Multi-run model ensembles continue to hint at trace amounts of precipitation here and there. For now, how kept the chance of precipitation <15%. Temperatures will warm from around 5 degrees below normal on Saturday to near normal by Wednesday. && .AVIATION...Mostly cloudy skies throughout the day with low-mid levels clouds, although intermittent clearing at times. Isolated showers continuing through the day, increasing in coverage after Thu/06Z. Low confidence in fog development Thu AM. MVFR/IFR and mountain obscuration possible in precip. Surface winds: SW-SE 10-15 kt with gusts to 25 kt in E-Oregon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 15- 30 kt. KBOI...VFR and mostly cloudy. A 30% of showers after Thu/07z, Chances of showers increasing throughout the day Thu. Surface winds: S-SE 8-13 kt, decreasing to 5-10 kt after sunset. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Flash Flood Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon IDZ011-013. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...SA LONG TERM....NF AVIATION.....NF

634 FXUS65 KLKN 012006 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 106 PM PDT Wed Oct 1 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 103 PM PDT Wed Oct 1 2025 * Strong Fall trough to bring beneficial rainfall across Northeastern Nevada Thursday into Friday. * Much cooler temperatures expected Friday through the beginning of next week with highs in the 50s and 60s, and overnight lows in the 20s to 30s. * Temperature will recover back into the 60s and 70s mid week, but low chances for showers will accompany the warm-up && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Tuesday) Precipitation chance will be on the rise this evening into Thursday afternoon as a strong yet slow moving Fall upper level trough and Closed low dig south from Vancouver Island, BC into the western US. A 10% to 30%chance for isolated showers will be possible tonight through Thursday afternoon for western NV. Thursday afternoon through Saturday morning chances increase to near 90% as scattered to numerous showers, with scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the area. This trough will be accompanied by the first atmospheric river of the season and will provide very beneficial rains to Nevada with forecast 3 day rain totals of up to 1.50 for the valleys, up to 3 for the higher elevations including up to a few inches of snow for the high peaks. The other main change with this system will be for much cooler temperatures that will filtering behind a cold front that will pass through Friday. High for the weekend and into Monday with breezy northerly winds will struggle to reach the 60s and overnight lows drop into upper 20s to upper 30s. As this system departs Saturday afternoon a secondary trough will dig south into Nevada while not as strong as the first, it will keep conditions unsettled through Wednesday with low 10% to 25% chance of isolated showers, however temperatures will start to recover Tuesday and Wednesday as highs return to the mid 60s to mid 70s. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is moderate confidence in the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms across western NV Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. There is high confidence for scattered to numerous showers with scattered thunderstorms across Nevada along with much cooler temperatures, Thursday afternoon through Saturday morning. There is moderate confidence in the development of secondary troughing Tuesday and Wednesday of next week that will lead to a low 10% to 30% of isolated showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions forecast to be the primary flight conditions through Thursday. There is a low 10% chance for showers or VCTS possible for KWMC and KBAM. && .FIRE WEATHER... No fire weather concerns with this forecast. Minimum RH values will be well above critical thresholds and wind gusts will remain below thresholds. More rain is expected Thursday and Friday, with CWR values through Friday afternoon reaching at least 50% in all zones and sections of far northern Nevada approaching 90%. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...98 AVIATION...98 FIRE WEATHER...94