340 FXUS66 KSEW 061752 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 952 AM PST Fri Feb 6 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions through today as the upper ridge axis slides to the east. A frontal system moves through on Saturday for the return of lowland rain, breezy winds, and cooler conditions. A more active pattern at times expected into next week with cooler temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...Clear skies across much of Western Washington this morning, with some areas of fog from Whidbey Island northwards as well. Otherwise, mostly sunny conditions with a mix of high clouds at times today. Temperatures will reach the mid to upper 50s with mid 60s near the Cascade Valleys. The upper ridge axis overhead continues to shift east on Saturday ahead of a frontal system that will move across the region. Lowland rain returns on Saturday, with snow levels ranging 5000 to 6000 feet with this front. In addition, locally breezy winds are expected, mainly along the coast, and from Whidbey Island northwards. HREF/REFS probabilities suggest south wind gusts ranging from 25 to 35 MPH gusts in these areas Saturday morning. Another system will then track into northern Oregon and southern Washington into Sunday, which may bring another round of rainfall for southern portions of Western Washington. Otherwise, snow levels do begin to lower by later Sunday, reaching 3500 to 4000 feet by Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...Weak troughing aloft will promote continued unsettled weather on Monday, however, precipitation amounts are forecast to be rather light on Monday for most areas. Western Washington returns to a bit more of a split flow pattern Tuesday and Wednesday, with the bulk of the energy from the trough over California. This lends to a more of a drier forecast late Tuesday into midweek, with temperatures a bit cooler in the upper 40s to low 50s. Ensembles suggest another frontal system may approach the area by Thursday with more SW flow aloft, although some uncertainty remains, and have kept with NBM POPs mainly peaking 40 to 50% on Thursday. && .AVIATION... Southwest flow aloft will increase tonight as a frontal system approaches. VFR conditions will prevail into this afternoon with high and mid level moisture increasing from late this afternoon into tonight. Ceilings will lower to MVFR in rain along the coast around 12Z with said conditions spreading to interior areas 15Z-18Z Saturday morning. Gusty southeasterly surface winds will develop ahead of the front early Saturday along the coast and interior areas from around KPAE northward. KSEA...VFR with increasing high and mid clouds late today. Ceilings will gradually lower overnight and are expected to become MVFR in rain 15Z-18Z Saturday through the remainder of the day. Surface winds S/SE 7 knots or less today into tonight...then increasing to 10 to 15 knots mid-morning Saturday with a few gusts in the 20 knot range. 27 && .MARINE... High pressure at the surface and aloft will continue to weaken today and a frontal system will approach the offshore waters late tonight. The associated warm front will lift across the coastal waters overnight with a trailing cold front moving onshore Saturday evening. This system is expected to produce small craft advisory winds across all waters beginning along the coast tonight then spreading to much of the interior waters on Saturday. Gusts could be near gale force at the east entrance to the strait and across portions of the coastal waters. A surface trough will move into the Oregon coastal waters on Sunday, but is expected to have little impact for area waters. A weakening front arrives on Monday. A broad surface ridge then builds over the waters moving into midweek for relatively quiet conditions before a late week frontal system arrives. Seas look to remain in the 8-11 ft range through at least Tuesday, except up to 12-14 ft early on Saturday as the front moves through. Seas may ease below 8 ft mid-week. 27 && .HYDROLOGY...Heavier precipitation over the weekend and early next week will force rises on the Skokomish River in Mason County with the river close to minor flood stage. Flooding is not expected elsewhere over the next 7 days. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Puget Sound and Hood Canal. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Saturday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. && $$

178 FXUS66 KPQR 062026 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 1226 PM PST Fri Feb 6 2026 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure will maintain dry and sunny conditions across the area today. The next frontal system arrives Saturday, returning widespread rain through Sunday. Sunday night to Tuesday, rain transitions to post-frontal showers with cooler temperatures and sub-advisory snow showers through the Cascade passes. Relatively drier conditions return mid-week with chances for light showers before chances for rain increase by the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday night...High pressure over the Pacific Northwest will bring one more day of dry and sunny conditions. High temperatures this afternoon are forecast similar to the previous couple days, running around 10 degrees above normal. Some locations may even come close to breaking their daily record high. See the climate section below for current daily records across the region. Easterly winds through the Columbia River Gorge have now weakened as pressure gradients between Troutdale (KTTD) and The Dalles (KDLS) have eased to -3 mb. Expect light winds across the forecast area today. These light winds in combination with low mixing heights will remain favorable for stagnant air. The Air Stagnation Advisory for portions of the Willamette Valley and southwest WA lowlands remains in effect through 10 PM this evening. Stagnant air may lead to deteriorating air quality. Fortunately, it looks like this won`t last much longer since the next system will be arriving on Saturday, returning well-mixed conditions. Tonight will see increasing cloud cover as the next system approaches the Pacific Northwest, minimizing concerns for fog and frost. A cold front and associated moderate atmospheric river will bring widespread rain to the region through this weekend. Rainfall initially looks to arrive at the coast Saturday morning before pushing inland through Saturday afternoon. Mild temperatures from southwesterly flow will keep snow levels above 6000-7000 ft, meaning even Cascade passes will see all rain through at least Saturday night. As the front progresses inland, there is a potential for it to stall, supporting higher rainfall totals. At this time, this is most likely to occur over southwestern or west-central Oregon, although it cannot be ruled out that the front instead stalls to the north over northwestern Oregon or southwestern Washington. By the time rainfall diminishes Sunday night, there is high confidence (>90% chance) of rainfall amounts greater than 0.5 inches along the I-5 corridor and greater than 0.75 inches along the coast. Most likely rainfall amounts vary from 0.75-1.25 inches along the I-5 corridor and 1-2 inches along the coast. Amounts of up to 2-3 inches are most likely (50-70% chance) over the Coast Range and Cascades, however, there is a 5-10% chance the lowlands could see these higher end amounts if the front stalls over a particular location. Given dry weather observed through much of January across the region, even the longer duration rain event is unlikely to produce enough precipitation to cause flooding. Sustained heavy rain rates over a particular location may yield isolated flooding in urban or poor-drainage areas, but more widespread areal or river flooding is not anticipated. -10/36 && .LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday...Behind the front, cooler and more seasonable temperatures arrive for the workweek. Lingering post-frontal showers and snow levels dropping to 3000-4000 ft early in the week will support pass-level snow accumulations in the Cascades. By this time, precipitation amounts will be much lower with sub-advisory snow. Chances for 6 inches of snow within a 48 hour period ending 4 PM Tuesday remains only around 5-10% at the Cascade passes. By mid-week, the majority of long-range ensemble members suggest drier conditions, through some members maintain chances for light showers. Greater uncertainty in the forecast follows for the end of the week, but 80% of ensemble members are suggesting a drop in 500 mb heights as a trough approaches the Pacific Northwest. Most of the uncertainty remains in exact timing and amounts of precipitation, as well as how cool we`d get. -10/36 && .AVIATION...At 20z Friday, light winds and mostly clear skies were being observed across northwest OR and southwest WA, aside from continued easterly winds at KTTD around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. However, easterly winds should weaken even more at KTTD through Friday evening as the surface pressure gradient from KTTD to KDLS weakens. Note satellite and surface weather observations depicted lingering low stratus and patchy fog over the Willamette Valley between KSLE and KEUG, but with no impacts at the KSLE and KEUG terminals. In addition, expect this area of low stratus to scatter out completely by 21-22z Friday. High clouds will increase from west to east tonight into Saturday morning ahead of an incoming Pacific frontal system. This system will bring rain and high-end MVFR cigs to the coast, beginning between 13-17z Saturday. Conditions will deteriorate on the south WA/north OR coast first, before spreading down the central OR coast last. Rain will likely begin for inland terminals sometime between 18-20z Saturday. With light winds continuing over the Willamette Valley tonight, patchy fog and low stratus cannot be ruled out, especially if high clouds hold off until the late overnight hours. All inland terminals have a 15-35% chance for fog or low stratus between 06-16z Saturday, except KPDX and KTTD where light offshore should be enough to maintain VFR flight conditions. Confidence in fog and low stratus development is not high enough to reflect in the TAFs, except at KEUG where confidence is high enough to at least hint at potential fog development. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Expect VFR flight conditions to most likely continue through 00z Sunday with relatively light winds. High clouds will increase between 10-18z Saturday ahead of an incoming frontal system, which will bring light rain to the terminal shortly after 18z Saturday. By 00z Sunday, chances for MVFR cigs around 3000 ft increase to 45%. -23 && .MARINE...Weakening high pressure inland will support southerly winds around 10 to 20 kt over the coastal waters, strengthening to 20 to 30 kt Friday night as a frontal system nears the coast. This frontal system will bring a 60-90% chance for intermittent gale force wind gusts up to 35 kt beyond 10 NM between 6am-Noon Saturday and 50-80% chance within 10 NM. Gale force wind gusts are expected to be too brief and isolated to warrant a Gale Warning, likely impacting any given location for a few hours as the frontal boundary moves eastward towards the coast. Therefore, have decided to maintain a strongly worded Small Craft Advisory for all marine zones, including the Columbia River Bar. These advisories remain in effect through 4 AM PST Sunday, except through 1 AM PST Sunday for the Columbia River Bar. For seas, expect a persistent southwesterly to westerly swell to maintain significant wave heights within the 9-13 foot range through the weekend and into early next week. Note seas should be highest on Saturday behind the frontal passage. Note there is a 5-10% chance seas will peak as high as 14-15 ft. It appears seas will decrease to 5 to 7 ft on Wednesday with relatively light north to northeast winds. More active weather is possible late in the week, but confidence in forecast details remains low at this time. -23 && .CLIMATE... Daily record high temperatures for Friday, February 6: Site Record Temp Astoria, OR 65F (1954) Vancouver, WA61F (1907) Portland Downtown62F (1963, 1998) Portland Airport59F (1998, 2020) Hillsboro, OR63F (1998) McMinnville, OR 61F (1984) Salem, OR 67F (1998) Eugene, OR 66F (1963) && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for ORZ108- 115>118-123>125. WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for WAZ204- 205. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM PST Sunday for PZZ210. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Sunday for PZZ251>253- 271>273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

216 FXUS66 KMFR 061430 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 630 AM PST Fri Feb 6 2026 .DISCUSSION...Key Points: 1) Slight cooling today will be the start of a cooling trend. But, conditions today will largely resemble those of the past few days. This includes areas of valley fog, mainly west and north of Jackson County, that will gradually dissipate during the morning and return again late this evening into Saturday morning. 2) An honest to goodness cold front with increasing clouds at the coast Saturday morning and rain (of around 0.10 to 0.20 inches) for the coast and Coast Range during Saturday afternoon. 3) A developing shortwave along the slow-moving cold front will bring enhanced rainfall at the coast Saturday night, gradually spreading into the central Umpqua Valley, including Roseburg. Additional amounts of up to 0.75 inches for the coast, with up to 0.25 inches (mainly late) for central Douglas County. 4) Snow levels remain above 6500 feet on Sunday with precipitation spreading to the Cascades and northern Klamath County (lightest amounts in the Shasta Valley). This includes a focus for rain from the coast to the Interstate 5 corridor, with increasing rain chances for the Rogue Valley, particularly for Sunday afternoon. 5) Heaviest precipitation for the Cascades from late Sunday afternoon through the evening, producing several inches of snow. But, with the bulk of this activity in the high country, occurring above the major passes as snow levels fall from 7000 feet to around 5000 feet in southern Oregon. This will include a few inches of snow in the Mount Shasta region above 5500 to 6000 feet. 6) The focus for precipitation shifts east of the coast during Sunday evening with light rain also expected to develop east of the Cascades. A few post-frontal showers/snow showers could linger near the coast, Cascades, and Warner Mountains late Sunday night into early Monday morning. Snow levels will continue to fall Sunday night with up to an inch of snow as low as 4500 feet late Sunday night (including Lake of the Woods, northern Klamath County, and east side passes). When all is said and done, 1.50 to 2.50 inches of rain is forecast for the coast, 0.25 to 1.50 inches for west side valleys (with lowest amounts for the Rogue and Shasta valleys), around 0.50 to 1.50 inches of precipitation for the Cascades (initially/partially as rain before 3 to 8 inches of snow for the higher terrain including Crater Lake), and 0.15 to 0.75 inches for the east side. 7) A break for most (the remainder) of Monday and Monday night with areas of mainly west side valley fog developing Monday night. 8) The next trough most likely tracking eastward into northern and central California on Tuesday and Tuesday night, with close to half of ensemble members showing at least a brush of its northern edge to bring measureable precipitation to southern portions of Siskiyou and Modoc counties. The highest probability is for ridging between troughs to provide a dry break for all of our area around Wednesday into Thursday. 9) Uncertainty regarding the track and timing of a broader upper level trough over the northern Pacific late in the week. This could be a relatively weak system with a high probability of measureable precipitation around Friday, and snow levels around 4000 to 5000 feet. && .AVIATION...06/12Z TAFs...Conditions will mostly remain VFR this morning, with variable amounts of high clouds. But, LIFR valley fog has developed in the Umpqua, Coquille, Illinois, and Upper Rogue valleys. This includes Roseburg and Grants Pass. This LIFR is expected to dissipate during the morning, with VFR by the afternoon. The high clouds will then exit our area during the afternoon. A very similar scenario of mainly westside valley LIFR fog is expected late this evening into Saturday morning. Mid and high level clouds will arrive at the coast Saturday morning, ahead of lower clouds and rain on Saturday afternoon. && .MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Friday, February 6, 2026...Steep west swell will persist today, then south winds increase tonight into Saturday with the approach and arrival of a cold front. This front will linger and strengthen on Sunday, continuing to produce gusty south winds, steep seas, and low visibility conditions in rain. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through Sunday afternoon. But, steep seas may persist through Monday evening. Improving conditions are forecast to follow Tuesday into Wednesday. && .BEACH HAZARDS...An incoming west to southwest long period swell will produce a moderate risk for sneaker waves along the southern Oregon coast through this evening, with the highest risk early this morning, and secondarily with the incoming high tide this afternoon. The next high tide will occur roughly around 2 to 3 PM PST. The threat, while moderate, should be emphasized due to the pleasant and warmer than normal weather. Sneaker waves can run up significantly farther up beaches than normal, including over rocks and jetties. These waves can suddenly knock people off of their feet and sweep them into the ocean. The waves can also move logs or other objects which could crush or trap anyone caught underneath. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for ORZ021-022. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$

876 FXUS66 KEKA 062052 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 1252 PM PST Fri Feb 6 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Conditions will greatly begin to moisten and cool into the weekend. Widespread wetting rain will cross the area around Sunday into next Monday. && .DISCUSSION...Over the past few days, high pressure east of the area has promoted consistent offshore flow, generating clear and unseasonably warm conditions even right along the coast. This pattern will begin to significantly change today. Broad, weak low pressure will gradually push into California with a broad lobe of high pressure offshore. This will promote moderate onshore flow into Saturday, bringing a resurgence of marine influence, especially to the coast with some weak marine stratus likely by this evening. Marine air pushing inland will greatly cool and moisten conditions each day. There is high ensemble confidence that a deep trough a strong surface cold front will sweep across the area Sunday into Monday. This front will be focused on the northern half of the area and into Oregon. Widespread wetting rain is expected along the front, though there is still a good amount of uncertainty regarding amounts due to variability in the moisture plume strength and duration, particularly this far south. That said, ensembles consistently place the area in the range for a weak atmospheric river with only very limited high end potential. Reflecting the moisture plume uncertainty, most likely rainfall amounts vary from about 0.5 to 1.5 inches at low elevations in Humboldt and Del Norte to 1.0 to 2.0 at higher elevations. Rain amounts will be less further south with most likely ranges of 0.1 to 0.5 inches for most of Mendocino and Lake Counties. There is a 15% chance of some wind gusts over 45 mph right along the coast, but any such winds would be very isolated to just the frontal passage itself. Much colder air will move in behind the front. Snow levels will most likely drop to around 3000 feet by mid next week, but there will most likely be too little moisture at that time to support strong snowfall, with less than an inch or two at any highway passes. Any additional rainfall next week shows very little confidence in specific timing and amount. That said, there is very high ensemble agreement in a generally colder and more moist pattern through at least mid month with additional waves of rain likely over the next couple of weeks. /JHW && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFs)...Coastal stratus has returned as high pressure begins to break down. Onshore flow will bring stratus towards the coastal terminals by this evening, bringing LIFR to IFR conditions. The deepening marine layer is likely to lift ceilings some overnight, which could keep visibilities high despite IFR ceilings. Interior river valleys may see fog and stratus again, perhaps with more coverage for the coastal river valleys. UKI has less than a 20% chance to see stratus tonight, and the marine layer currently does not look deep enough to bring stratus from the south or west. JB && .MARINE...A long period westerly swell at around 10 to 12 ft at 16 seconds has built into the waters, keeping seas elevated. This will result in hazardous conditions to small craft through early Saturday. Light to gentle winds southerly winds are expected to continue today. Winds are expected to increase to moderate to fresh breezes over the weekend in advance of an approaching front, especially north of Cape Mendocino. NBM shows around a 40 to 50% chance for gale force gusts, but currently these look brief and isolated. Northerlies returns in the wake of the front Sunday night, with generally moderate to fresh breezes. Seas remain elevated as additional west swells build into early next week. /ZVS/JB && .BEACH HAZARDS...A Beach Hazard Statement remains in effect through late this evening due to a moderate risk of sneaker waves along areas beaches. A large long period west swell has arrived and has brought heights around 10 to 12 feet at 15 to 16 seconds. These high energy waves will bring a moderate risk of sneaker waves, resulting in the potential deadly waves that unexpectedly surge much farther up the beach than previous waves, overtaking unaware beachgoers. Remember to never turn your back to the ocean, and to avoid steep beaches, jetties, outcroppings, and rocks during these events./ZVS && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM PST this evening for CAZ101-103-104-109. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for PZZ450-455- 475. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Sunday for PZZ470. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

459 FXUS66 KMTR 061859 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1059 AM PST Fri Feb 6 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 115 AM PST Fri Feb 6 2026 - Hazardous beach conditions from swells through Saturday evening at Pacific Coast beaches. - 20 to 40% chance of rain in the North Bay Sunday night. - Better chances for rain middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 115 AM PST Fri Feb 6 2026 (Today through Saturday) Recent KMUX imagery shows scattered returns moving northward over the Central Coast this morning. This is in response to mid level moisture moving northward along a passing upper level low that will travel southeastward over the ocean down the Central Coast today. No measurable precipitation is expected, but given that KMUX is getting some echos between 20-30 dBz, went ahead and threw in mention of isolated sprinkles down the Big Sur coast for this morning. Regardless, the vast majority of the area will remain dry, with only an increase in cloud cover today. However, that increased cloud cover will help minimize any valley fog this morning. Temperatures are expected to still climb just slightly above seasonal norms today, but with the increased cloud cover and cooler air moving in with the low, it should feel a little cooler compared to recently. Weak ridging is expected to return tonight and into Saturday. This should help clear some of the skies out tonight which may allow for radiational fog development in valley locations. Otherwise, the cooler airmass should provide similar temperatures on Saturday with highs in the 60s and upper 50s/low 60s along the coastline. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 115 AM PST Fri Feb 6 2026 (Saturday Night through Thursday) The pattern begins to shift on Sunday. While the weak ridge will remain in place over Central California during the day on Sunday, a longwave trough in the northeast Pacific will begin to make it slow movement southward down the British Columbia coastline. This wave will eventually send a couple of shorter waves that can provide additional chances for rain through the middle of next week. The first weak short wave is expected to eject away from this parent wave and move over the Pacific northwest Sunday evening. With the majority of ensemble members continuing to highlight the higher QPF in the Pacific northwest, blended PoPs were adjusted down for Sunday evening to confine the highest chances (20 to 40 percent) to the North Bay. This left just a 15 to 20 percent chance that light rain makes it to the city of San Francisco with a less than 15 percent chance it makes it to the South Bay (and even then it probably would not reach the South Bay until around or after midnight). Regardless, the amount of rain is expected to be only a couple hundredths in the North Bay and less to the south. Models are projecting a more stout shortwave trough to descend down the coastline Tuesday through Wednesday. Cluster analysis is highlighting that models are still struggling with the depth and track of the upper level trough. However, with increased moisture and better forcing, it looks like a better chance for rain across the forecast area. Higher coastal elevations could see over a quarter of an inch of rain, but inland areas could be impacted by the rain shadow and see much less. Lastly, a cooler air mass aloft will accompany this trough, allowing for temperatures next week to return to more seasonable norms. Once that trough passes there could be a break in the precip toward the end of next week. However, models are keeping an active pattern aloft which may bring another rainy system to the area next weekend. It is still a little too early for the details, but something to certainly keep an eye on. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 942 AM PST Fri Feb 6 2026 Currently skies are a mostly SKC with a few sites seeing FEW-SCT at 9 kft or above. Winds AOB 10kts for most sites with VRB winds. Surface high pressure is just beginning to build in from the west, turning some sites NW. This trend will continue, with most terminals seeing NW winds this afternoon and evening, remaining AOB 10kts. Satellite shows some stratus off shore this afternoon. As onshore winds continue into the evening, marine stratus will eventually advect inland tonight into early Saturday morning. MVFR/IFR cigs will impact most terminals, trending more IFR after 12Z for North Bay and Bay Area terminals. Some chances for fog formation after 10Z over these terminals. Winds remain light, with directions becoming VRB during this time. Impacts will linger through the end of the period for most sites. Zooming in on North Bay Terminals; low clouds associated with the marine layer with high IFR / low MVFR ceilings move through the Petaluma Gap this evening, 01-03z Saturday. Clouds slowly progress into the North Bay Valleys through 06-08z with low to moderate confidence for patchy radiation fog to develop, generally after 11z, more likely around KSTS than KAPC, lowing visibility to 1/4-1SM locally. Visibility obscuration also expected where clouds meet terrain. Low clouds begin to retreat in the mid-morning Saturday. Vicinity of SFO...High confidence VFR will persist through 06Z with winds AOB 10kts. Onshore flow will eventually advect marine stratus inland after 06Z. Times of MVFR cigs through 10Z until skies become mostly OVC009. Some BR/FG possible from 12Z through 16Z, however vis should remain AOA 3SM. Winds remain light and VRB. Moderate confidence impacts will linger through 20Z, then skies should lift and scatter after. SFO Bridge Approach...Some lingering HZ around Bay Area is seen this afternoon and could lower slant range visibilities near sunset. Similar to SFO. Vicinity of SJC and OAK... Increasing confidence with MVFR stratus moving in with onshore flow tonight and early Saturday morning. Lower confidence in IFR impacts from cigs/vis, especially down the Santa Clara Valley. Times for HZ/BR possible after 12Z, with vis likely remaining AOA 4SM. Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR through 00z Saturday. Low clouds with IFR/MVFR ceilings develop in the Monterey Bay and push onshore over coastal Monterey County (including KMRY and KSNS) around 01-03z this evening. Clouds gradually surge into the Salinas Valley tonight with low confidence for patchy fog formation (and visibility below 1SM) in the valley locally. Visibility obscuration also expected where clouds meet terrain. Otherwise, mist from the marine layer could lower visibility to 4-6SM in coastal areas. Clouds begin to scatter out around 17z Saturday morning. && .MARINE... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 836 AM PST Fri Feb 6 2026 A light northwest wind will become more northerly this evening into tomorrow. Northerly winds will increase in the Northern Monterey Bay zone on Saturday morning, with seas then diminishing into Saturday evening. A cold front moves southeastward over the coastal waters and bays gradually during the day Sunday and Sunday night, resulting in an increase in north-northwesterly winds Monday and Tuesday. && .BEACHES... Issued at 247 AM PST Fri Feb 6 2026 A High Surf Advisory will be in effect beginning 4 AM PST today at all Pacific Coast beaches, the High Surf Advisory continues through 9 PM Saturday. Westerly swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves 17 to 22 feet. Remember to stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure, remain out of the water, and never turn your back on the ocean! && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...High Surf Advisory until 9 PM PST Saturday for CAZ006-505-509- 529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...DK LONG TERM....DK AVIATION...DeLizio/Westerink MARINE...Camden Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

139 FXUS66 KOTX 061712 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 912 AM PST Fri Feb 6 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry with areas of fog through Saturday morning. - Mountain snow and lowland rain Saturday afternoon through Sunday Night with winter travel conditions over the mountain passes. && .SYNOPSIS... The Inland Northwest will be under an upper level ridge through Friday with dry weather. A cold front will bring rain and mountain snow this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Today and Tonight: The strong upper ridge that was over the region Thursday will be pushing east of the region today as an upper trough off the coast begins to push east. This will result in a southwesterly flow, with still plenty of warm air over the region. However most of this will stay up in the mountains today as fog and stratus continue to expand across the lower elevations. All elevations below 3500 feet are expected to be stuck under a low cloud deck as the stratus layer deepens over the region as the boundary layer flow turns light out of the southwest (upslope direction for NE Washington into the ID Panhandle). The few exceptions are the Methow Valley, and locally the Central Panhandle Mountains and Kamiah area. There have been several reports of visibility near a quarter mile or less this morning around the Upper Columbia Basin, Spokane area, Palouse, and Alpowa Summit area where a Dense Fog Advisory is in place through noon. There have been local reports of dense fog in other areas as well, and will continue to be monitored through the night. The low stratus will limit temperatures rises today, with most valleys topping out in the upper 30s to low 40s. The stratus and areas of fog will continue into Friday Night as well. Saturday through Monday: Changes arrive as a moist precipitable water plume takes aim at the region from southwest to northeast this weekend. This will bring rain and mountain snow, with snow levels initially starting off high; ranging from 4500 to 6000 feet through Saturday Night. Snow levels then fall to around 4000 feet in the Cascades on Sunday, and then as low as 2500-3000 feet by Monday morning. Some of the latest deterministic model runs are showing a surface low strengthening as another wave moves in Sunday Night, tracking from Central Oregon into the Palouse with a deformation band of steady precipitation north of the low track around the Palouse/Spokane area into the Central Panhandle Mountains. If this pans out higher snow totals than forecast would occur with as much as 5-10 inches in the Central Panhandle mountains, and possibly wet snow mixing in down to the valley floors as well. Currently the NBM shows a 75% chance of 2" or more of snow at Lookout Pass, with a 20% chance of 6" or more. Similar probabilities are shown for Stevens Pass. Breezy winds are also expected with this passing system on the Palouse. Tuesday through Thursday: A short wave ridge moves over the area Tuesday and Wednesday for drier conditions and temperatures slightly above normal. On Thursday the next system approaches but the NBM is only carrying a 20-30% chance of precipitation in the form of mainly valley rain and mountain snow. JW && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: Light winds and IFR-LIFR fog and stratus will largely continue through the next 24 hours. Models continue to be overly optimistic of improving conditions. There may be slight improvements in visibility into the afternoon and evening hours Friday but confidence is low. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low confidence for improvements in the next 24 hours. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 38 33 45 41 47 34 / 0 0 20 70 70 70 Coeur d`Alene 41 33 46 41 46 35 / 0 0 20 80 70 80 Pullman 39 35 53 43 47 36 / 0 0 10 70 80 80 Lewiston 48 37 56 45 52 39 / 0 0 0 50 70 80 Colville 40 31 41 37 45 32 / 0 0 40 70 60 60 Sandpoint 40 33 41 39 44 35 / 0 0 30 90 80 80 Kellogg 50 36 49 43 45 36 / 0 0 10 80 90 90 Moses Lake 43 34 44 38 47 33 / 0 0 30 40 60 40 Wenatchee 42 36 42 38 46 34 / 0 0 40 50 60 40 Omak 41 35 40 37 45 34 / 0 0 30 30 40 40 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Dense Fog Advisory until noon PST today for Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin- Washington Palouse. ID...Dense Fog Advisory until noon PST today for Idaho Palouse. && $$

713 FXUS66 KPDT 061753 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 953 AM PST Fri Feb 6 2026 .Updated Aviation Discussion. .KEY MESSAGES... - Continued dry conditions through Friday - Pattern change will bring mountain snow and low elevation rain - Increased winds across the region will accompany pattern shift && .DISCUSSION... Current satellite shows a large swath of the region under a stratus deck. Ground observations as well as webcams show many areas through central/n. central OR and along the foothills of the Blues plagued with fog/freezing fog with a dense fog/freezing fog advisory out until 10 AM. This will remain through the late morning. Models show the ridge to be slowly moving to the east with the back edge bringing mainly south to south east flow aloft. By Friday afternoon/early evening, models show the ridge to be to the south east of the area and the leading edge of the upper level trough to be pushing onshore. Conditions will remain dry through Friday with another round of overnight fog reforming. HREF raw ensembles continue to show 60-80% of the Basin and adjacent valleys seeing fog reform with VIS of 3 miles or less Friday night and into Saturday morning. Saturday models show the upper level trough to continue to push in from the west with models showing the precipitation to begin after 10 AM. Clusters show that the main discrepancy between the models is the timing with NBM, EURO and HREF split. Regardless, precipitation is expected to begin in the Cascades in the late morning with 70-80% confidence. As the day progresses, models show the system to continue to push east increasing rain chances for the lower elevations. By Sunday, models show the entire region will see increased chances of rain with 50-70% of the NBM raw ensembles having the Basin, adjacent valleys as well as central and n. central OR seeing up to 0.1 inches of rain through Sunday. However, with the more westerly/zonal flow, cooler temperatures will also move across the region and the NBM show snow levels to decrease to 3500 ft along the Cascades, east slopes, Gorge and portions of the western lower Columbia Basin and 4000-4500 to the east. Snow is anticipated to accumulates above 3500 ft Sunday with the NBM raw ensembles with 50-60% probabilities of up to near an inch Sunday along the WA Cascades and the Northern Blues. Models show precipitation to persist through Monday with another round of high mountain snow up to 1 inch (60-80%) and low elevations rain (70-80%) of between 0.05-0.10 inch. Lastly, the upper level trough will also bring with it increased winds as it traverses the region. The region will begin to see an increase in winds Saturday morning steadily increasing through the weekend peaking Sunday. 40-60% of the NBM raw ensembles have winds between 10-15 mph sustained with gusts to 25 on Sunday. This coupled with the precipitation will assist in removing the air stagnation as well a ward off the fog. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...Variable conditions currently across all sites, with VFR at KBND, MVFR at KDLS/KRDM/KYKM/KYKM/KPSC due to reduced ceilings of 1000-2500 feet. These conditions are expected to improve through the afternoon to VFR as ceilings lift to 15-25kft. MVFR conditions are expected to return tonight and through the overnight period for the majority of terminals, but KRDM/KBDN will drop to LIFT overnight as fog develops and visibilities drop to 1/2SM. Winds will stay light at below 10 kts at all terminals due to lingering high pressure. 75 && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 34 55 43 52 / 0 10 50 80 ALW 36 54 45 52 / 0 10 60 90 PSC 35 52 42 53 / 0 10 50 80 YKM 34 48 38 49 / 0 20 50 60 HRI 34 52 42 53 / 0 10 50 80 ELN 33 44 36 44 / 0 40 60 70 RDM 31 58 40 50 / 0 0 30 70 LGD 36 58 43 50 / 0 10 50 80 GCD 34 58 42 51 / 0 0 40 80 DLS 37 51 45 52 / 0 40 80 90 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...Air Quality Alert until noon PST Saturday for ORZ506-509. Freezing Fog Advisory until noon PST today for ORZ510. && $$ DISCUSSION...90 AVIATION...75

118 FXUS65 KREV 060932 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 132 AM PST Fri Feb 6 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Warm, mostly dry conditions with light winds through the weekend. * There is a 30% chance for light precipitation on Friday mainly in Mono and Mineral Counties. * Cooler temperatures and light precipitation possible as a cold front moves through Monday-Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Clouds filtering in along the Sierra from the southeast are arriving courtesy of an upper low that has formed along the coast of southern California. Snow showers above 7000 feet will begin to rotate northward into the Sierra this morning, lifting as far north as the southern shores of Lake Tahoe later this afternoon. Overall, amounts are expected to be light, with generally 0.5-1.0 inches of fresh snowfall and isolated peaks receiving up to 2 inches. With the system being rather transient in nature, we will see this on its way shortly after nightfall tonight. The clearing skies will allow for temperatures to fall a couple degrees below last night`s lows, bringing near freezing temperatures back to western Nevada valleys for a couple nights. Overall, afternoons this weekend will keep the same warm, dry flavor that we have been under for awhile. Light winds and inversions will also be featured the majority of the weekend. By Sunday, hints of our next system will begin to materialize first for northeastern California, eventually drifting into the Sierra and even some western Nevada valleys. This may be the beginning of the pattern shift many of our snow sports enthusiasts have been seeking. Snow amounts for the early week system still look a bit light, with snow levels looking to start out around 8000 feet, tumbling to around 5000 feet for the northern Sierra and 7500 feet for the southern portion of the Sierra across Mono County. Overall, amounts look to be less than 1 inch for most areas with isolated peaks gathering up to 3 inches of fresh snow. Valleys below will see a rain/snow mix as snow levels take a sharp decline to valley floors early Wednesday and Thursday, possibly even bringing light snow for a brief period ahead of day break on Wednesday. Confidence is lower on how timing of moisture and cold air in place may affect the outcome and amounts. Another piece of information that is unclear is just how long this system will be with us. If the ensemble solutions are correct, we could be under the influence of the low pressure circulation through the rest of the work week into the weekend. Check back in future discussions to find out more about this upcoming wetter pattern. HRICH && .AVIATION... * VFR conditions throughout the forecast period, with light winds and hazy skies due to inversions in valleys. Valley terminals may experience slantwise visibility concerns due to the haze. HRICH && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$

562 FXUS66 KSTO 062103 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 103 PM PST Fri Feb 6 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather and mild conditions through Saturday with patchy AM fog Sacramento southward - Minor precipitation impacts Sunday into early next week with rain and mountain snow expected, highest over the mountains and N. Sacramento Valley && .DISCUSSION... ...Today through Saturday... Today saw our morning fog footprint reduced today with only reduced visibilities over the northern San Joaquin Valley. This will linger into the evening before another round of evening and overnight fog and mist impact a similar area again with visibilities as low as quarter-mile fog Saturday morning. As of noon today, we have weak radar echoes over the Sierra with increasing cloud cover from the southwest, south of Interstate 80. This largely will be in the form of virga and not see much accumulating precipitation reaching the ground. Latest hi-res models show isolated showers form along the Sierra crest then drift eastward out of our area. Otherwise, dry and seasonable weather continues with highs in the 60s today and Saturday in the Valley, cooler over the mountains ...Sunday onward... As the upper level ridge breaks down and shifts eastward, a glancing blow from a shortwave moves over northern CA Sunday before a larger trough passage on Tuesday into midweek, bringing along rain showers, mountain snow, breezy winds and cooler temperatures Sunday through the middle of next week. Only minor impacts are expected over this timeframe with amounts relatively holding steady compared to last night. Sunday and then on Tuesday look to have the most accumulations over a 24-hour periods with lingering showers on Monday/Wednesday. Current convective outlooks do bring a 5-10% chance of thunderstorms on Monday so we will continue to monitor the thunder threat as we get closer to Sunday. The Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day outlook then favors below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation for the February 13th through 19th timeframe, indicating that active weather will continue through at least the middle of February. [Sunday-Tuesday PM] Sierra Chances for 3" of Snow or More: 40-60% [Sunday-Tuesday PM] Shasta Co. Chances for 0.50" of Rain or More: 60-85% && .AVIATION... General VFR conditions today outside of areas of MVFR to IFR conditions across the northern San Joaquin Valley from mist and fog until 21z Fri. The northern San Joaquin Valley (KSCK/KMOD) will see conditions worse to IFR to LIFR conditions after 09z Saturday into 18z Saturday. Light winds across the area outside of east gusts up to 15 kts over the Sierra after 06z Sat. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

633 FXUS65 KMSO 062043 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 143 PM MST Fri Feb 6 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Record warm temperatures continue through Saturday. - Saturday night through Monday a cold front brings a change to a wetter and cooler pattern. A ridge of high pressure will remain over the region this afternoon and overnight. Low stratus and fog are expected to spread across the valleys of north central Idaho and northwest Montana, with the potential for fog to encompass the entire Flathead Valley by Saturday morning. The ridge will shift to the east late Saturday into Saturday night. This shift will cause the upper-level flow to turn southwesterly, directing a plume of moisture into north central Idaho and northwest Montana. Snow levels will remain quite high during this timeframe, confining snowfall to the highest terrain of the Northern Rockies. While valleys will experience rain, cold sub-surface road temperatures could lead to ice formation on paved surfaces by Sunday morning, creating hazardous travel conditions. A more vigorous weather disturbance is expected to push through the region Sunday night into Monday. A cold front associated with this system will cause snow levels to drop to around 3000 feet on Monday, particularly across northwest Montana. - Mountain Impacts: Lolo, Lookout, Lost Trail, and Marias Passes are expected to receive 2 to 6 inches of snow, with Marias Pass potentially seeing locally higher amounts. - Valley/Foothill Impacts: Pierce and Elk City, ID, as well as Olney, Georgetown Lake, and Marion, MT, have a 50-80% chance of receiving at least one inch of new snow by Tuesday morning. - Winds: This front will also bring gusty westerly winds to the region on Monday, with gusts up to 30 mph common in the higher terrain. Snow showers will diminish throughout Tuesday as the Northern Rockies settle between weather features. This quiet period is anticipated to persist through Thursday. While temperatures will be cooler compared to the previous week, readings are expected to remain approximately 5 degrees above seasonal averages. Looking ahead, over 80% of long-term models indicate that the Northern Rockies will likely be impacted by another weather disturbance by next weekend. && .AVIATION...A ridge remains over the region with valley fog being the main impact to aviation. Terminals KGPI and KMSO are the most at risk of impacts by Saturday morning. Some high level clouds will begin to make their way over the region later tonight into Saturday morning. The clouds will thicken and lower throughout Saturday. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

228 FXUS65 KBOI 061728 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 1028 AM MST Fri Feb 6 2026 .DISCUSSION...Upper level ridge will begin to weaken today with increasing high clouds aloft from a weak system in southern NV. Then the ridge temporarily rebuilds over the area on Saturday and Sunday with mild temperatures. Increasing winds aloft will allow for more warming on Saturday and Sunday with the lowest valleys approaching 60F. A cold front will move through the area on Monday morning, with rain and snow showers along the front. Snow levels start out initially around 7000-8000feet before falling to around 4000 ft behind the front. Precipitation amounts are rather unimpressive for this event, with around an inch in the mountains near McCall with around a quarter inch in the Boise Mountains and areas south. && .AVIATION...Localized MVFR/IFR this morning in the lower Snake Plain (between KONO to KEUL) and mtn valleys. Fog will continue to burn off through the morning. Otherwise VFR. Surface winds: Variable up to 10 kt, except E 10-20 kt this morning near the western Magic Valley (KGNG-KJER). Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW-SE 5-15 kt. KBOI...VFR under increasing high clouds. Surface winds: Following the diurnal cycle 2-6 kt. Weekend Outlook...Localized IFR in mist/fog in lower Snake Plain and mountain valleys Saturday. Otherwise VFR through Saturday night. Lowering ceilings and a chance of rain and snow increasing on Sunday. Periods of MVFR/IFR in the E-central OR and W-central ID valleys from precip and lower cigs. IFR/LIFR developing in the mtns, with mtns becoming obscured Sun night. Snow levels 6k-7k feet MSL Sunday, lowering to 4k-6k feet Sunday night. SW-SE surface winds increasing Sunday afternoon and evening behind cold front. LLWS possible Sunday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday night...A couple degrees cooler today but still very mild, as a Pacific upper low moves inland across southern California and slightly lowers the amplitude of the main ridge over our area. After the low moves inland, the ridge will briefly reamplify, and Saturday will be warm again. Even Sunday will still be warm in southern Idaho, but a Pacific cold front and following cold upper trough will come late Sunday in Oregon, and Sunday night/early Monday morning in Idaho, finally ending the warm weather. The front will bring .05 to .15 inch pcpn to southern areas, and .15 to .75 inch to the north, but locally up to 1.00 inch on west-facing higher slopes in Idaho. Most of this will fall as rain, with the colder air and snow not arriving until most of the pcpn has ended. LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...The progressive pattern will continue, with the upper-level shortwave fully moving through the area by late Monday. Cooler air overtakes SE Oregon after 12z/Mon and SW Idaho after 18z/Mon with the surge of the cold front subsequently lowering snow levels. Precipitation will continue into late Monday, but will considerably wane by the time snow levels fall. Snow levels will hover 4-6 kft 12z/Mon and drop to 2.5-3.5 kft 12z/Tue. For the Snake Plain, any measurable precipitation during this period is low (15-40%), with higher elevations understandably seeing higher chances. Precipitation chances drop off after Monday as split flow will direct storms to our north/south, shielding the area from any significant precipitation. There is uncertainty in the details of the storm tracks, with ensemble guidance keeping a low chance of showers (15-30%) mainly in the mountains for Tue-Fri. Cluster analysis still keeps the western CONUS in troughing, indicating the progressive pattern will remain. Temperatures next week will run slightly above normal. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Air Stagnation Advisory until 11 PM MST Sunday IDZ012-014-016-033. OR...Air Stagnation Advisory until 11 PM MST /10 PM PST/ Sunday ORZ064. Air Stagnation Advisory until 4 AM PST Monday ORZ062. Air Stagnation Advisory until 11 AM MST /10 AM PST/ Sunday ORZ063. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise DISCUSSION...KA AVIATION.....NF SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....CH

354 FXUS65 KLKN 062043 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1243 PM PST Fri Feb 6 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1229 PM PST Fri Feb 6 2026 * Continued near record warm temperatures through the weekend * Periods of precipitation Monday through Wednesday * Turning colder starting Monday && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Thursday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Stubborn blocking pattern that has held much of the west dry and warm for most of the last several weeks will begin to break down as a major pattern change looks to bring rain and snow chances back to the region. However it is still a few days away. Quiet weather pattern that has featured some version of a high over low, or REX block over the west coast, will begin to erode over the weekend as the cutoff upper low off shore of Baja shifts south and east Sunday night allowing for the upper ridge to move into the plains states. This will finally allow the northern jet to shift and allow a series of upper level troughs to dig south over the west into northern California. The first system looks to move through Sunday night into Monday. Models are trending weaker and farther north with this system and it may just serve a glancing blow to the northern mountains of Humboldt and Elko counties with light rain and higher elevation snow, but will bring in cooler air that will drop highs from the upper 50s to low 60s closer to seasonal norms in the mid to upper 40s by Tuesday. A second stronger system, will follow on the heels of the first on Tuesday evening into Wednesday. Models show this system on a more southern track that will bring lower elevation rain and mountain snow to much of the state. Snow levels are still a bit uncertain as models have been trending warmer overall. For now snow levels start at or above 7500 feet Sunday, before dropping to 5500 to 5000 feet for northern NV, Monday evening as the first system clips by. For Tuesdays system snow levels start at 5500 feet for northern Nevada, and 6500 feet for central Nevada. By Wednesday morning, depending on how much cold air verifies, snow levels could drop to valley floors across the northern half of the State with only far southern White Pine and the US-6 Corridor seeing snow levels at 5500 feet. Overall amounts are still a bit uncertain as well as overall moisture has varied quite a bit in the last few days of model runs. Current thinking as Sunday into Monday, liquid equivalent precipitation will be between a trace to 0.25, of that seeing a 1 to 4 of snow for the range peaks of mainly northern NV. For Tuesday night through Wednesday liquid values range from 0.01 to near 0.70. Valleys could see up to 0.15 of liquid with up 1-2 of that being snow. Roadway summits will see a bit more snow with 0.05 to 0.40 of water, including up to 2 to 4 of snow, while the mountains may see up to a foot of new snow. Thursday and Friday models disagree on the pattern, but agree that for the most part those days look to be dry. The EC favors a progressive shortwave ridge in the wake of Wednesdays system while the GFS favors weak troughing over the Silver state. However models do show the potential of a third trough pushing in for next weekend, just beyond the forecast window. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is moderate to high confidence in the chances for a large scale pattern change beginning Sunday. There is moderate confidence for light lower elevation rain, mountain snow showers Sunday night into Monday across northern Nevada There is moderate to high confidence in a second stronger system moving through Nevada Tuesday evening into Wednesday with lower elevation rain changing to all snow with light accumulations up to 1 for the valleys and up to a foot for the high range peaks. There is low to moderate confidence for a break in the action Thursday to Friday of next week. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are forecast to be the primary flight conditions through Saturday. An upper level low is slowly spinning across southern Nevada. This low will act to thicken cloud cover and lower CIGs for KTPH and KELY to near 7kFT for periods with VCSH for KTPH this evening. Winds will remain light over the region at 5KT to 10 KT, wind directions will vary across N NV from W to NW. While central NV will see E to SE winds at similar speeds. CIGs for KEKO, KBAM, KWMC and KENV look to remain above 15kFT. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...98 AVIATION...98