221 FXUS66 KSEW 130343 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 843 PM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026 .SYNOPSIS... A strong upper level ridge will move onshore this weekend into early next week. A heat advisory continues for much of western Washington for widespread moderate HeatRisk as highs climb into the 80s and 90s on Sunday and Monday. Fire danger will also become elevated as relative humidities dip with offshore flow. The high will weaken midweek for increasing onshore flow and cooler temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Strong upper level ridging continues to build into the region this evening. Thermally induced low pressure over Western Oregon tonight will continue to expand north and westward on Saturday with the low level flow flipping weakly offshore. NBM high temperatures in the short term, particularly around central Puget Sound, looked a bit on the low side. So, high temperatures were given a modest boost. This puts Seattle metro in the mid 80s tomorrow and a degree or two either side of 90 for Sunday/Monday with regional high temperature records in jeopardy. The rest of the forecast is unchanged at this time. Previous discussion follows with updates to marine/aviation portions. 27 It`s a dry and mostly sunny day across much of western Washington this afternoon. Satellite has a few areas of clouds over the Cascades, and Olympics, and some low stratus around Neah Bay. Quite a few places in the lowlands have climbed into the 70s this afternoon. A few locations west of Olympia/Chehalis Valley may track towards 80 this afternoon. Otherwise, only minor HeatRisk today with the temperatures, with winds out of the north around 5-10 mph. Lows tonight drop down to around 50 to 55. The main story remains warm, and dry air going into the weekend, and into Monday across western Washington. An upper level ridge building offshore will begin to move inland this weekend, with the axis overhead by Sunday evening. A thermal trough is also expected to build along the coast, which will in turn make the flow more offshore in the overnight periods. Winds will turn more out of the east, but most places will see light winds overnight (with the exception of the west Cascades and Olympic slopes where a few gusts up to 20 mph may occur). During the days, the winds will turn to the north/northwest 5 to 10 mph, with Saturday being breezy in much of Puget Sound as winds pick up to 15-20 mph in the afternoon. Now for the heat: Saturday will be the cooler of the two weekend days, but will still be quite a bit warmer to Friday, as highs approach the mid 70s into the upper 80s (with a couple low 90s in areas west of Olympia). HeatRisk increases to moderate for a large swath of the south/southwest interior, but remains minor for the remainder of the lowlands. Lows will drop into the mid and upper 50s Saturday night into Sunday. Sunday will be the warmest day of the weekend, with highs around 80 to near 100 in the southwest interior. All of the lowlands will see moderate HeatRisk impacts, with a few isolated instances of major HeatRisk (but this has decreased slightly to 20-40% with the latest forecast update due to low temperatures dropping a couple degrees to around 60). Nevertheless, the Heat Advisory will continue for the emphasis of those spending time outside (who are sensitive to extreme heat) to take breaks in the air conditioning/shade, and staying hydrated. HPR && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Surface thermal trough deepens inland with highest surface temperatures on Monday. Widespread moderate HeatRisk remains likely on Monday, with more highs likely to break 90 in the interior. Monday evening, this thermal trough will begin to weaken and disorganize. Overnight temperatures have cooled a couple degrees, but will still likely range from the upper 50s to low 60s. Tuesday will be much cooler due to this weakening of the thermal trough, bringing winds with a northwesterly component. A few gusty winds will be possible on Tuesday. The upper level ridge that had built over Western Washington shifts inland on Tuesday, causing temporary zonal/onshore flow until a upper level trough pushes in on Thursday, keeping temperatures cool through the end of the week. HPR/NW && .AVIATION... Upper level ridging centered just offshore will continue to amplify into Saturday with northwest flow aloft over Western Washington. The low level flow will be northerly or weakly offshore into Saturday afternoon. The air mass is dry and stable with clear skies and VFR conditions in place. KSEA...Clear skies. Surface winds northerly 7 to 10 knots will become northeasterly 5 to 7 knots overnight then rise again to northerly 8 to 12 knots Saturday afternoon. 27 && .MARINE... Broad surface high pressure will remain centered over the offshore waters into early next week. Thermally induced low pressure over Western Oregon will expand north and westward on Saturday for periods of light offshore flow Saturday into Sunday. The thermal trough will shift into the interior of Western Washington Sunday night with onshore flow increasing across the coastal waters. A typical summertime pattern of varying degrees of onshore flow will be in place early next week with high pressure offshore and lower pressure across the interior of the Pacific Northwest. Weak systems passing well north of the region will induce enough onshore flow for possible gales in the central and east strait Monday evening and again on Tuesday. Coastal seas will remain well under 10 feet through the weekend before building to around 9 or 10 feet on Tuesday. 27 && .FIRE WEATHER... Drying trend over the area the next few days with elevated fire weather concerns beginning Saturday and lasting into Tuesday. Upper level ridge building this weekend with the low level flow turning offshore Saturday night. Highs warming into the 80s Saturday, 80s to lower 90s Sunday and for the interior 80s to mid 90s Monday. Relative humidity values lowering in the drier locations, like the Southwest Interior, into the teens both Sunday and Monday afternoon. Even though fine fuels have not reached critical thresholds, this rapid drying will create elevated fire concerns especially for dry grassy/shrubby areas, as well as piles of dead fuels. Offshore flow Sunday into Monday will prevent good relative humidity recoveries overnight. Relative humidities will improve with the return of onshore flow Tuesday. Winds will become particularly gusty, with portions of the coast/mountains/south interior seeing west to northwest wind gusts up to 20 to 30 mph. Low level onshore flow and cooler temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will ease fire weather concerns the middle of next week. Felton/HPR && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 5 AM PDT Tuesday for City of Seattle-Downtown Everett / Marysville Area-Eastern Kitsap County-Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-Eastside- Foothills and Valleys of Central King County-Foothills and Valleys of Pierce and Southern King Counties- Foothills and Valleys of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Thurston and Lewis Counties-Foothills and Valleys of the North Cascades- Foothills of the Western and Southern Olympic Peninsula- Island County-Lake Crescent Area Including US 101-Lower Chehalis River Valley-Lowlands of Lewis and Southern Thurston Counties-Lowlands of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish Counties-Lowlands of Western Whatcom County- Middle Chehalis River Valley-Northern Hood Canal-Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Port Townsend Area-San Juan County-Shoreline / Lynnwood / South Everett Area-Southern Hood Canal-Willapa and Black Hills. PZ...None. && $$

113 FXUS66 KPQR 130527 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 1027 PM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026 ...Updated aviation discussion... .SYNOPSIS...Minimal change in the forecast overall. Upper level high pressure builds over the far northeast Pacific into western WA/OR over the next several days, ushering in a prolonged stretch of dry and hot conditions. Daytime temperatures increase significantly this weekend into early next week, peaking Sunday and Monday with interior lowlands in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees. Low temperatures will not provide much relief from the heat. Heat related impacts are anticipated for much of the region with widespread Moderate to High HeatRisk. Temperatures will trend cooler for Wednesday onward with the return of onshore flow. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Monday Night...High pressure continues to build over the region today which is setting the stage for a stretch of hot and dry conditions. Today has been fairly normal with highs in the mid to upper 70s inland, and near 60 along the coast. While temperatures were mild today, that will not be the case over next several days. On Saturday, we will see highs rise into the 80s but the big consideration is actually wind. The overall flow will transition into an offshore pattern which will add a mechanical warming mechanism to the environment. As the easterly flow comes up and over the terrain, it will not only mix down warm air aloft, but it will also compress the air at the surface and thus cause increased warming. This flow pattern will also cause winds to ramp up within the Columbia River Gorge, and within the Willamette Valley. Overall, the wind speeds are not unheard of for this time of year, but rather they are impactful to some of the industries like wildfire. More details on this below. Temperatures rise further on Sunday into Monday as the ridge axis aligns to the coastline. Daytime temperatures are expected to quickly increase into the upper 80s to low 90s on Saturday then to the mid to upper 90s for Sunday and Monday for the interior lowlands and portions of the OR Coast Range. The coast will be much warmer than normal as well, peaking in the 70s each day and near 80 degrees on Sunday. With the newest forecast, the HeatRisk for the coast has increased to Moderate and there was enough confidence in an increased heat day to issue a Heat Advisory for the coast. Probabilities for temperatures exceeding 95 degrees are around 70-90% between Salem and Vancouver and 50-70% for the rest of the interior lowlands on Sunday. There is less than a 5% chance for the Cowlitz Valley lowlands and Gorge. On Monday, those probabilities for 95 degrees F rise considerably with the NBM showing around a 85-99% chance of temperatures greater than 95 degrees F in the Valley and around 30% in the Longview area. With Monday being the hottest day in the forecast, there is around a 50% chance of temperatures of 100 degrees or more from Salem northward. Something we continue to monitor are the overnight low temperatures. Typically we will see cooling overnight that brings much needed relief. However, in this pattern we are seeing very little as overnight lows are lingering around 65 degrees F in the interior lowlands where we see the highest daytime temperatures. Low temperatures could even remain above 70 degrees in some locations with a 30-40% chance for the greater Portland-Vancouver Metro area Sunday night into Monday morning and less than a 10% chance on Monday night into Tuesday morning. As previously mentioned, there are some fire weather concerns in areas with cured grasses and finer fuels Saturday into Monday due to hot, dry, and breezy conditions. The thermal trough will bring breezy conditions within the western Columbia River Gorge/Cascades gaps and the Willamette Valley Saturday through Sunday night. As daytime highs increase, relative humidities will also decrease to near critical levels. Based on feedback from area partners, fuels are not quite cured enough to consider any Red Flag Warnings at this point, but there is uncertainty on how the fuels will be impacted by the continuous days of dry and hot conditions. Currently, there is around a 15-30% chance of relative humidity being below 25% and winds being greater than 15 mph on Saturday and Sunday. Be aware of potential ignition sources such as vehicle chains dragging on the pavement, hot vehicle components, sparks created by power tools, and cigarette butts as all of these could easily result in the ignition of cured grasses and dry, fine fuels. Live vegetation and larger fuels may not have enough time to dry out prior to the dry and breezy conditions, but this is a variable that is being closely monitored by our State and Federal Fire Partners. -27 && .LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday...Ensemble guidance indicates high pressure continues Tuesday with heights beginning to lower along with 850 mb temperatures, which would allow for lowering temperatures on Tuesday. However, there is uncertainty in the forecast spread of both of these elements, leading to uncertainty in the high temperature for Tuesday. Additionally, it is not uncommon for models to degrade highly amplified ridges such as this one too early in the extended forecast period. There is no robust weather system in the models that is causing the lowering heights, so there is the potential that the high pressure may not break down as much as ensembles indicate on Tuesday. NBM still indicates warm daytime temperatures at least in the upper 80s for the interior lowlands. Ensembles are in good agreement that the surface thermal trough over OR will break down sometime Monday into Tuesday, so Tuesday is not expected to be quite as warm for the coast and Coast Range. With the flattening ridge, we there is the potential for a more unique wind direction pattern though. We will see a transition to northwesterly winds which will usher in cooler air to the northern portions of the forecast area while the southern zones will remain warmer. Therefore, there may be a 5 degree spread between the north and south on Tuesday. But, if the ridge remains amplified, that difference will be less significant. Either way, past heat events have shown that impacts from the heat can continue despite a cool- down, especially since morning low temperatures are expected to remain very warm Tuesday morning. Ensemble guidance indicates the high pressure axis shifts west back over the E Pacific Wednesday and Thursday as a strong upper trough digs into the Midwest. However, uncertainty in the strength of the trough leads to uncertainty in the high pressure over the Western US/E Pacific. There is high confidence that temperatures will be quite cooler than Sunday and Monday, but 50-60% of ensemble members still keep just enough high pressure over the region for high temperatures to remain in the low to mid 80s for the interior lowlands. -HEC && .AVIATION...High pressure will maintain VFR conditions with clear skies through the TAF period across all terminals. Tonight, variable winds around 5 kt or less inland with light offshore winds along the coast. After 15-18z Sat, offshore pressure gradients will tighten and support northerly to northeasterly winds across the region, with gusts up to 20-25 kt at any given terminal. After 03-04z Sun, winds should gradually weaken as pressure gradients ease. In addition, temperatures between 90 to 100 degrees F are forecast across the Willamette Valley Saturday through early next week. Be aware of high density altitude which may reduce aircraft performance. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR with clear skies through the TAF period. Light northwesterly winds around 5 kt or less overnight, turning more northeasterly after 16-18z Sat with gusts up to 20 kt through the afternoon. Winds weaken in the evening after 03z Sun. -10 && .MARINE...Expect a typical summertime pattern persist into next week as high pressure builds offshore. Diurnal northerly winds will strengthen, peaking each afternoon and evening. Expect winds of 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt south of Cape Falcon on Friday, increasing to 15-25 kts with gusts up to 30 kts on Saturday. Overnight, wind gusts may fall below Small Craft Criteria for the inner water zones, but still expecting gusts up to 25 kt for the outer waters. Will maintain the current suite of Small Craft Advisories, but they could get extended through Sunday as there is minimal changes in overall conditions. Seas 4-7 ft at 9-11 seconds with a persistent westerly swell. Long-range guidance brings a more active weather pattern towards the end of next week. Which could result in seas near 10 ft as well as gusts up to 30 kt, but overall confidence in this pattern change is low at this time. && .CLIMATE... Record high temperatures and warm low temperatures for Sunday, June 14 High Temperatures: Warm Low Temperatures: Portland Int`l 89F (1988) 62F (1985) Vancouver, WA 93F (1986) 61F (1931) Hillsboro 96F (1961) 60F (1963) McMinnville 93F (1986) 59F (1936) Salem 92F (1961) 59F (1936) Eugene 92F (1914) 57F (1993) Astoria 86F (1914) 58F (1972) Record high temperatures and warm low temperatures for Monday, June 15 High Temperatures: Warm Low Temperatures: Portland Int`l 95F (1966) 60F (1969) Vancouver, WA 95F (1930, 1966) 62F (1961) Hillsboro 99F (1961) 60F (1963) McMinnville 96F (1961) 59F (1936) Salem100F (1966) 59F (1931) Eugene 96F (1966) 60F (1961) Astoria 91F (1966) 58F (1997) Record high temperatures and warm low temperatures for Tuesday, June 16 High Temperatures: Warm Low Temperatures: Portland Int`l 95F (1958) 60F (2012) Vancouver, WA 92F (1961) 67F (1966) Hillsboro100F (1961) 65F (1961) McMinnville 98F (1961) 59F (1966) Salem 97F (1961) 61F (1961) Eugene 95F (1961) 62F (1961) Astoria 87F (1958) 59F (1997) && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Sunday for ORZ101>103. Heat Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for ORZ104>108-113>119-121>125. Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for ORZ109>112-120. WA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Sunday for WAZ201. Heat Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for WAZ202>205-208-210. Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for WAZ206-207-209. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ252-253-272- 273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

229 FXUS66 KMFR 130438 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 938 PM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026 ...New Aviation Section... .AVIATION (06Z TAFs)... There continues to be a chance for a marine layer to develop, bringing a chance (35-40%) of IFR ceilings to KOTH overnight. Otherwise, this cycle will be noted by mostly VFR conditions with lots of sunshine through the afternoon hours. Breezy wind speeds will develop through the afternoon hours with speeds diminishing around sunset. -Guerrero && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 448 PM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026/ AVIATION (00Z TAFs)... A marine layer will bring a chance (40%) of IFR ceilings to KOTH overnight. Otherwise, this cycle will be noted by mostly VFR conditions. Breezy wind speeds this afternoon are expected to diminish around sunset. -Guerrero PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 200 PM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026/ KEY MESSAGES... *Warming, drying trend to close out this week and into this weekend with temperatures jumping to well above normal levels. Even some unusual warmth reaching coastal locations (potential highs in the 90s in Brookings Saturday and low 80s Coos Bay/North Bend Sunday). *Heat wave Sun-Tue with upper 90s and 100+ heat expected inland west side valleys and in the upper 80s to mid 90s over the east side. *Some cooling mid-late next week, but still above normal. *No rain chances next 7 days, though we`ll be keeping an eye out for t-storm potential at the end of the heat wave next week. DISCUSSION...Once again, sunny skies prevail over the entire forecast area this afternoon and temperatures are responding to the higher heights and warmer air aloft with most areas 2-6F warmer than 24 hours ago. The warmth has been felt all the way to Brookings, where NE winds channeling down the Chetco river sent the temperature to 88F earlier at the airport. The agrimet site closer to the ocean was holding around 70F. The upper ridge responsible for the warm up is building out around 130W and this is inducing a surface thermal trough along the NorCal coast, extending northward into SW Oregon. We expect the strongest offshore winds with the thermal trough over the Siskiyou Mtns and coast ranges of SW Oregon tonight into Saturday morning. So, this means little ocean influence down there and less cooling than recent nights. It also means that Saturday will probably be even hotter in Brookings due to the lack of onshore marine influence. Models have been about 5-10F too low with temps there the last 2 days. So, it`ll probably end up in the low to mid 90s based on current model soundings even though models only give that about a 10% chance of occurrence. A heat advisory remains in effect there through Saturday evening. Inland, temperatures will rise by 3 to 7 degrees over the previous day each afternoon Sat/Sun. The upper level ridge will weaken slightly Saturday night as a trough interrupts the flow briefly, then the ridge rebuilds quickly and remains overhead through the first part of next week. Expect the peak of heat wave Sun/Mon/Tue with daytime highs across the area of 20 to 25 degrees above normal for early to mid June. Some records will be challenged or broken. With NWS HeatRisk showing widespread moderate impacts and smaller areas of major heat impacts, we`ve issued heat advisories for the remainder of the west side (also including the Mt. Shasta region). The details can be viewed at PDXNPWMFR. Expect highs of 90-100F in many locations with some west side valleys 100-105F and up to 110F in western Siskiyou County. We haven`t added east side areas yet, but may add them too with potential advisories Mon/Tue. Recent trends in the guidance suggest that there will be some cooling from the NW Tuesday as the thermal trough shifts farther inland. As such, the advisories for Coos and Douglas counties end a bit sooner than the rest. The ridge is expected to flatten a bit at midweek. This could be delayed by as much as a day, as these patterns typically are, which will let temperatures cool slightly through the rest of next week. However, temperatures are still expected to remain above normal. Of note, we also tend to see an increased risk for thunderstorms on the back side of heat waves. Models keep the area dry at the end of this one, but there are some hints of instability starting to appear in some runs as early as Wednesday afternoon, but moreso Thursday afternoon, mainly over Modoc and Siskiyou counties. The limiting factor will be atmospheric moisture, which appears lacking as of now, and a clear trigger to set off convection. So while chances are very low (~10%) now, we can not rule out some lightning around the middle-latter half of next week. Confidence should improve as we get closer to the time period in question, and model better resolve the situation. -Spilde/BPN AVIATION...12/18Z TAFs...VFR conditions prevail across the region and will do so through the TAF period for most locations. Expect another round of breezy north to northwest winds this afternoon, strongest along the coast where gusts of 20 to 30 kt will be common. Some patchy IFR/LIFR marine stratus could return to portions of the coast north of Cape Blanco tonight, including at North Bend, but should quickly clear to VFR early Saturday morning. /BR-y MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Friday, June 12, 2026...A thermal trough pattern will maintain gusty north winds and steep to very steep wind-driven seas across the southern Oregon coastal waters through this weekend. The worst conditions are expected south of Cape Blanco, where gales and very steep seas will persist through Saturday. Winds ease below gales Saturday night, but remain above advisory criteria with steep fresh swell persisting into Monday. Additionally, as winds weaken Saturday night, a wind reversal is likely south of Gold Beach and within 30 nm of shore where marine stratus will surge northward, bringing reduced visibilities. The thermal trough pattern rebounds Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing the return of strong north winds and steep to very steep wind driven seas through much of next week. /BR-y FIRE WEATHER...Updated 100 PM PDT Friday, June 12, 2026... Rapid warming and drying is expected to continue into this weekend. This will result in an early season heat wave that will last into early next week. Temperatures will continue to increase, peaking Sunday to Tuesday with daytime highs about 20-25 degrees above normal. This will likely result in some triple digit readings for the valleys west of the Cascades, but especially western Siskiyou County, where it could get to around 110F. Minimum relative humidities will also trend lower (bottoming out in the 10-20% range for most areas) -- though RHs could even drop into single digits at times over the East Side deserts. Meanwhile, broad north through east flow will produce moderate to poor RH recoveries over upper slopes/ridges each night, especially over the Klamath mtns, Siskiyous, and Cascades. A period of gusty offshore E-NE winds is expected tonight into Saturday morning over the Siskiyou Mtns and coast ranges with peak gusts in the 25-35 mph (40 mph?) range. This could repeat Saturday night, but looks like it will be more over the inland mountains since the thermal trough will gradually shift inland. Poor ridge RH recoveries are most likely Saturday night. Also some stronger northerlies could channel through the Goose Basin near Lakeview tonight-Sunday. The typical diurnal afternoon N-E breezes could again become gusty at times Saturday. While critical conditions are not expected within the current forecast, localized conditions could get close, especially considering the low teens and potential single digit minimum humidities during the peak of the heat wave. Undoubtedly, this period of hot and dry weather will continue to move the needle toward higher fire danger as we head into next week. Also of note, once the heat begins to ease midweek, we will need to keep an eye out for possible thunderstorms. Model guidance is not currently showing any significant convection chances through Wednesday. But, there continue to be hints in the various model suites, and thunderstorms do typically accompany the breakdown of a heat wave in this area. There is at least a very slight potential (~10% chance) with some guidance showing convection near the Sierra, which could affect SE sections of our forecast area toward Thu/Fri next week. Best chance focused on far northern California and the East Side. Confidence remains low right now, but we will update the forecast as necessary over the coming days. -Spilde/BPN && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for ORZ021>026. CA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ080>082. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Monday for PZZ350-370. Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ356-376. && $$

332 FXUS66 KEKA 130754 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 1254 AM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will warm quickly with moderate to major HeatRisk expected through the weekend and into early next week. - Coastal stratus is possible early Saturday morning south of Cape Mendocino. - Potential cooling trend in the inland areas starting on Wednesday. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure continues to build into the area with hot temperatures expected into early next week. The near coastal and coastal areas may start to see more marine influence over the weekend and into early next week while Trinity county is expected to see the hottest temperatures Monday and Tuesday. Cooler temperatures are possible starting on Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION...High pressure continues to build in across the area and the interior is expected to see a few hot days of this heatwave. A southerly surge of clouds could make its way up to Ukiah but the likelihood of that depends on available moisture at low levels and advected stratus into the Russian River Valley and Anderson Valley. This will likely start to cool temperatures at the immediate coast and inland to areas as far as Boonville or so. For the weekend a weak upper level trough is expected to drop down from the north. This is expected to bring some instability, but current moisture profiles look like they remain too dry for any thunderstorms. Temperatures are expected to remain more steady fluctuating somewhere around 100 in the afternoons. The winds southerly winds along the Mendocino coast are expected to slightly increase and keep the stratus in place. The high pressure is expected to keep the marine layer fairly shallow and it may mix out each afternoon. Sunday it looks fairly certain that the marine layer will be well north of Cape Mendocino as the winds get lighter. Heat Advisories have been hoisted beginning Saturday when temperatures noticeably increaser in combination with warmer overnight low over the interior. Advisories expand in coverage southward Sunday. Monday and Tuesday high pressure continues to the strengthen over the area and is expected to some of the hottest temperatures of this heat wave. Further expansion southward or westward closer to the coast may be required. Wednesday the high pressure is expected to start to break down and cooler temperatures are expected aloft. This will cool temperatures across the area and likely deepen the marine layer. MKK/JJW && .AVIATION...Gusty winds out of the north will ease overnight. Clear skies and light winds could allow ground fog to develop into early morning Saturday at KACV. Model guidance suggests a few hours of LIFR flight categories at KACV with a probability of 25%. South of Cape Mendocino could get a light southerly push as an area of low pressure encourages low level stratus. Guidance is struggling to model much of it make it around the cape, but the subtle increase in low level moisture should allow for at least localized shallow stratus formation around Humboldt Bay. Probability for this scenario has increased to 40 to 50% after 12Z Saturday. Given the building ridge, fog visibilities will be possible. The shallow ceiling levels will also allow for quick scattering. If stratus does make it around the cape Saturday, clearing may be delayed due to light westerly flow. && .MARINE...Gale strength northerlies persist in the northern waters beyond 10 nm in Zone 470. Seas up to 14 ft are likely occurring over this zone as a result. Advisory level conditions remain elsewhere from steep wind-driven seas and northerly winds of 20 to 25 kts. Steep seas are propagating into the northern inner zone 450, but the inners south of Cape Mendocino remain more sheltered from the larger northwesterly seas. Winds and seas will diminish Sunday. A small long period southerly swell moves in Monday while northerlies and short period seas restrengthen. && .FIRE WEATHER...Temperatures are expected to remain hot and dry into early next. Over the weekend a shortwave moving down form the Pacific Northwest is expected to increase instability and this may lead to increased mixing heights. It doesn`t look like there will be enough moisture in NW California for any thunderstorms, that is expected to remain well east and south of the area. Early next week temperatures may climb slightly more and the hottest temperatures of the heat wave are expected. Wednesday into late in the week cooler temperatures are expected. This may also bring stronger winds or possibly thunderstorms depending on how the pattern evolves. MKK. && .COASTAL FLOODING...High astronomical tides are predicted from Saturday, June 13 through Tuesday June 16 for Northwest California. The combination of a high astronomical tides and long- period swells will increase the risk of minor coastal flooding around Humboldt Bay, including King Salmon and low-lying roads near Arcata Bottoms. Advisory level tidal heights of 8.8 ft at the North Spit gauge may come close to being met at the 9:53 pm high tide Friday. There is higher confidence on 8.8 to 9.1 ft tides occurring Saturday through Tuesday. /JJW && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Heat Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 10 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ102-105-116. Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM Saturday to midnight PDT Saturday night for CAZ103. Heat Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 10 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ108-111-117. Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT Saturday for CAZ113-114- 118>120. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM Saturday to midnight PDT Saturday night for PZZ415. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ450-475. Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ470. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

402 FXUS66 KMTR 130702 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1202 AM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1201 AM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026 - Continued hot and dry today for interior communities with Moderate HeatRisk. - Minor coastal flooding due to higher than normal high tides anticipated across coastal regions of the San Francisco Bay Area and Central California Coast. - Hazardous beach conditions return by Sunday with increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1201 AM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026 (Sunday night through next Friday) Overcast conditions are blanketing the entire Pacific coast along Sonoma County through Monterey County this early Saturday morning. The stratus has spilled through the Golden Gate, and is also expanding through the Salinas Valley. Nearly all airports are running cooler compared to this time 24 hours ago throughout the region, including inland terminals such as Livermore and Concord. The healthy onshore gradient of +3.4 mb from SFO to SAC will help expand the stratus as he night progresses. Upper-level ridge remains over the eastern Pacific with northwest flow aloft prevailing over the Golden State. For this afternoon, expect seasonable temperatures along the immediate Pacific coast with temperatures in the 60s and 70s, while communities away from the oceanic influence will be much warmer in the 80s to near 100 degrees for far inland locations. While there will be a few degrees of cooling realized today, HeatRisk for the interior East Bay and South Bay will remain in the Moderate category. As a result, a Heat Advisory continues for these locations through 7 PM PDT this evening. High tide flooding will continue to occur nightly along the low- lying areas of the Bayshore and the Pacific Coast through the middle of next week. The combination of an upcoming new moon and lunar perigee on Sunday, about 7 inches of additional tidal anomaly from a combination of storm surge, thermal expansion of the Eastern Pacific, and about 2 inches inches of Sea Level Rise since the vertical datums were established in the 80s and 90s will add up to bring tides up to 2.0 feet above normal through early next week. While lower than the historic tidal flooding in January (peaked at 2.6 ft) the tides this weekend could end up being the highest observed in the Summer, beating the current record of 1.7 ft from July 2022. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1201 AM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026 (Sunday night through next Friday) By Sunday and Monday, the grasp of the eastern Pacific ridge will fade as it flattens, courtesy of an Aleutian low. The end result for us will be a subtle (and welcomed) day-to-day cooling for interior communities and the usual June stratus along the Pacific Coast. The ridge will attempt to rebuild around Tuesday/Wednesday, which may mark the end of the cooling trend for inland areas. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 946 PM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026 Extensive stratus continues to blanket the coastal zones and adjacent valleys, locking these locations under a mix of LIFR ceilings. Surface visibilities have also declined with the densest pockets along the immediate coast. This marine stratus deck is projected to to hold firmly through the night before the diurnal clearing trend commences. Deep interior locations will remain decoupled from the marine influence which will maintain clear VFR conditions through the TAF period. Intermediate sites, including KSTS, KSFO, and KOAK have moderate confidence in IFR/LIFR ceilings developing overnight before clearing mid-morning. Vicinity of SFO...VFR conditions prevail late this evening with stratus entering through the Golden Gate. Moderate confidence in IFR ceilings developing early morning as low stratus expands through SF Bay. The marine layer will remain shallow, keeping ceilings low but also allowing stratus to burn off by mid morning (15-17Z). Light NW winds generally less than 10 kt will prevail overnight into the morning, increasing to 10-20 kt in the afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Vicinity of SJC and OAK...VFR conditions prevail late this evening with stratus entering through the Golden Gate. Moderate confidence in IFR ceilings arriving at KOAK 08-11Z. VFR conditions should return 15-17Z as a shallow marine layer burns off. Confidence is low that stratus will push all the way to KSJC, therefore VFR conditions are forecast through the morning. Winds will be light overnight, then pick up again in the afternoon out of the west to northwest 10-18 kt. Monterey Bay Terminals...Marine layer restrictions are firmly established across the Monterey Bay terminals with both KMRY and KSNS currently locked under IFR/LIFR ceilings. Visibilities are expected to remain wider-ranging but there is potential for visibilities to range between IFR/MVFR through the overnight hours. Diurnal warming tomorrow will mix out cloud cover through the late morning to early afternoon. Winds will follow a typical coastal regime with KMRY light and variable overnight while SNS remains better established from the northwest down the valley. MRY will range back from the northwest in the late morning and afternoon as the onshore flow becomes re-established. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 946 PM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026 A gentle southerly breeze and moderate to rough seas with a low south southwest swell persist across most of the coastal waters. However, small craft advisory conditions linger in the northern outer waters where winds remain northerly through early Saturday morning. Otherwise, the winds will remain fairly consistent through the weekend as the seas subside. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1230 PM PDT Thu Jun 12 2026 Long period southerly swell will continue through the weekend, especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. Hazardous beach conditions will expand to include Pacific coast beaches along the central coast and the Bay Area coast starting Saturday evening through Tuesday morning. Be sure check beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean! && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ006-506- 508. Beach Hazards Statement from late Saturday night through late Tuesday night for CAZ006-505-509-529-530. Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ505-509-529-530. Heat Advisory until 7 PM PDT Saturday for CAZ510-513>515. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rowe LONG TERM....Rowe AVIATION...Manion MARINE...Tangen Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

420 FXUS66 KOTX 130756 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1256 AM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warming well above normal over the weekend into early next week. Minor HeatRisk into the weekend and increasing threat for moderate HeatRisk Monday into Tuesday. - Tuesday: Very warm and dry conditions and gusty westerly winds with a dry cold front passage will bring the potential for critical fire weather conditions. && .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures will warm above normal through the weekend into next week, with the highest temperatures expected on Monday and Tuesday. Fire weather will be a concern Tuesday with warm, dry conditions and gusty westerly winds with a cold front passage. && .DISCUSSION... As an upper ridge builds off the coast, warming conditions are expected this weekend. A weak disturbance will brush northern Idaho Saturday afternoon, with enough moisture and instability to lead to a slight chance of afternoon showers over the mountains of the ID Panhandle. Dry conditions are expected elsewhere. The ridge strengthens further and moves more inland early next week, leading to continued dry and even warmer conditions across the Inland Northwest. Daytime temps are likely to peak on Monday and/or Tuesday, with values around 15 degrees above normal for many locations. A dry cold front passage is anticipated to lead to potentially critical fire weather conditions on Tuesday, primarily across the East Slopes of the Cascades and into the Columbia Basin. Unseasonably warm temperatures combined with low humidity are forecast, and winds will become quite gusty. Some extended range models indicate wind gusts of 30-40 MPH, locally up to 45 MPH along the East Slopes into the Columbia Basin, West Plains, and Palouse. The remainder of the extended forecast into the end of next week favors daytime temps cooling a bit, though remaining above normal. Continued dry conditions are also likely, but confidence in a precip-free outcome is only moderate for now. /KD && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFs: VFR conditions are expected to prevail during the TAF period. Slight chances for showers may develop north of KCOE after 18Z Saturday, but are not expected to impact area terminals. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions through the 24hr TAF period. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 76 47 77 49 83 53 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 73 47 75 49 81 54 / 40 10 0 0 0 0 Pullman 73 44 76 47 80 49 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 80 51 83 53 87 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 76 42 79 46 85 52 / 30 10 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 71 45 74 48 81 52 / 60 10 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 72 45 74 48 81 52 / 40 10 10 0 0 0 Moses Lake 83 52 85 54 90 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 81 57 84 61 89 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 80 51 85 55 90 60 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

343 FXUS66 KPDT 130526 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1026 PM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warming and drying trend extends into next week. - Breezy weekend winds will increase early next week. - Windy and dry conditions elevate fire weather concerns. && .DISCUSSION... Current radar and visible satellite imagery shows dry conditions under clear skies. This is in response to an upper level high pressure system that is strengthening offshore today before slowly moving onshore late Saturday and crossing through the Pacific Northwest on Sunday. A warming trend will ensue as the warm and dry airmass associated with the high pressure ridge moves over the area. High temperatures will reach into the low to mid-80s today, middle to upper 80s Saturday, low 90s Sunday, and into the middle to upper 90s Monday and Tuesday across lower elevations of the Columbia Basin, Blue Mountain foothills, Columbia Gorge, and Central Oregon. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday are about 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Overnight relief will be minimal as morning lows Monday and Tuesday will only dip into the lower to middle 60s across lower elevations of the Columbia Basin, Blue Mountain foothills, Columbia Gorge, and the Yakima Valley. As a result, widespread moderate (2 of 4) HeatRisk is expected Monday, with isolated areas on Sunday and Tuesday. Probabilistic HeatRisk suggests an 80-100% chance of Moderate HeatRisk being reached on Monday across these areas, with some areas along the Gorge, Tri-Cities, and Yakima included in a 40-60% chance of Major (3 of 4) HeatRisk. There are some model inconsistencies with the strength and timing of the ridge with 45% of members suggesting a weaker or later ridge progression onshore. However, these differences are rather minor, and should only result in temperature differences of 2-4 degrees. As confidence grows, so does the potential for heat products being issued as either an advisory or warning. At this time, an advisory is probable (50-70%) Monday across the Columbia Gorge, Yakima Valley, and Central Oregon, depending on the introduction of CAMs guidance over the next 24 hours. The ridge slides onshore over the weekend and suppresses on Monday due to an incoming upper level trough from the northwest. The pressure gradient will tighten between these two synoptic features late Monday and Tuesday, enhancing winds across the area. The strongest winds are expected to occur between Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning as gusts up to 65 mph will be possible through the Kittitas Valley, and up to 55 mph over the Simcoe Highlands, Columbia Gorge, north-central Oregon, and the Blue Mountain foothills. The NBM advertises a 30-50% chance of high wind warning level wind gusts (>58+ mph) through the Kittitas Valley and a 50-70% chance of advisory-level (>45+ mph) wind gusts over the remaining areas of the Columbia Gorge, Simcoe Highlands, and the Blue Mountain foothills. The uncertainties in timing and strength of the incoming trough and attendant cold front also relate to confidence in these wind values, with 25% of members highlighting higher winds than the current forecast and 30% of members swinging in the other direction of weaker winds. This will have to be analyzed further as the event nears and details from short-term guidance can be assessed. The combination of warm temperatures, dry conditions, and high winds provide elevated fire weather concerns that peak on Tuesday. Even though afternoon humidity values hover in the lower to middle teens through Monday, the lack of enhanced winds coinciding with these values suppresses fire weather concerns. However, the passing of a cold front Tuesday will bring windy conditions, moderate (30-50%) overnight humidity recoveries, and afternoon humidities in the middle to upper teens across some zones that have receptive fuels. These would include areas of Central Oregon and the Lower Columbia Basin. Timing looks to be most of the day on Tuesday after middle to late morning. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... VFR conditions are forecast at all sites for the next 24 hours. Winds will be diurnally driven, periodically breezy and/or gusty during the afternoon and evening hours with lighter winds overnight. Skies will be clear to mostly clear. && .FIRE WEATHER... As stated in the primary forecast discussion, fire weather concerns peak Tuesday across much of the Columbia Basin (WA/OR691) and Central Oregon (OR700, OR704, and OR705). These zones encompass all currently declared fire weather zones, as fuels within these zones have been found to be receptive to carry and spread fire. There are isolated pockets of fire weather concerns over the weekend and even into Monday, primarily related to areas of north-central Oregon (OR703) and southern Blue Mountains/foothills, (SW OR691) middle to late afternoon. The passing of a cold front on Tuesday will also lead to an increase in instability and shifting wind directions along the frontal boundary. This may warrant a Fire Weather Watch being issued in the next 24-48 hours related to Tuesday`s event (50-60% confidence). 75 && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 48 84 50 87 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 53 85 54 88 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 53 88 56 92 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 53 87 57 92 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 51 87 55 90 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 49 83 54 88 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 44 84 48 87 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 45 81 48 84 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 43 83 45 87 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 56 90 62 93 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...75 AVIATION...86 FIRE WEATHER...75

702 FXUS65 KREV 130739 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1239 AM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Warm weather prevails through the weekend with low chances of afternoon showers and storms from Mono County into Mineral County. * A heatwave will introduce moderate to locally major HeatRisk Monday through Wednesday. * A pattern change may bring cooler temperatures, breezy afternoon winds, and increased shower and storm chances late next week. && .DISCUSSION... Warm and generally dry conditions persist for the weekend, but there are a couple of features we are keeping an eye on. High pressure over the Eastern Pacific will help to keep temperatures warm, but a weak shortwave trough traversing southward across the Basin and Range and the Sierra will promote higher risk for thunderstorm development over the weekend. Diffluence aloft may pair with the surface instability due to solar heating to promote more storms forming or stronger storms this afternoon. It`s a bit of a messy pattern which lends to some uncertainty in the forecast, but we can plan on similar shower and thunderstorm potential (15% chances) for Mono, Mineral, and Lyon counties through the weekend. For the Sierra crest towards the Tahoe Basin, the chances are below 15% for showers and storms, but not zero. Be aware if you`re enjoying the outdoors this weekend, and when thunder roars, go indoors! Other than the storm/shower chances, the heat is the main story for the weekend into early next week. Highs will become hot by Monday into Wednesday with values well above 90F and nearing 100F. Plan on widespread moderate HeatRisk for early next week with some areas into the major HeatRisk category for the lower valley areas. Keep an eye on vulnerable populations, especially early next week, if they don`t have access to adequate cooling measures. Try to avoid the hottest parts of the day by getting out early in the day or later in the evening to prevent heat illness. Ensemble cluster analysis continues to show a signal for high pressure over the West to break down and displace eastward mid to late next week. With this pattern shift we typically monitor for breezy winds and elevated fire concerns, along with better shower/storm potential, but timing and details are too early to flesh out. For now, we can plan on it cooling down to more typical temperatures late next week after pretty hot start. -Edan && .AVIATION... The main weather concern will be the potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms near KMMH each afternoon through the weekend. Chances are low (15% or less), but gusty outflow winds, brief downpours, and isolated lightning may impact KMMH should showers/storms develop. Otherwise, widespread VFR conditions and typical afternoon breezes prevail through the weekend. Density altitude concerns arise early next week with widespread hot temperatures running 10-20 degrees above average. -Salas && .FIRE WEATHER... An extended period of very warm/hot and dry conditions is forecast through next Thursday. Monday through Wednesday features the hottest temperatures (10-20F above normal) with RH reductions to the teens and single digits. Plan on typical summertime breezes each afternoon until Tuesday, where simulations are signaling for increased breezes and possible elevated fire concerns in western Nevada. Furthermore, isolated thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon into next week, raising localized concerns for lightning ignitions and strong outflow winds. Breakdown of a western ridge is slated to occur after Wednesday, which may introduce increased breezes and greater fire concerns, as well as better thunderstorm potential late next week into next weekend. -Salas && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$

422 FXUS66 KSTO 122051 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 151 PM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... -Well above normal temps in the lower elevations, triple digit highs with widespread Moderate HeatRisk / Areas of Major HeatRisk into the weekend (outside of Delta breeze influenced areas). - The Delta breeze will bring cooling into infuenced areas over the weekend, with Minor HeatRisk and highs a little less hot, in the 90s into next week. -Significant warm-up early next week, Sunday-Tuesday with Widespread Major HeatRisk for the northern and central Sacramento Valley. Widespread Moderate HeatRisk elsewhere, -Hottest temperatures Monday for the area north of I-80, with areas of Major HeatRisk. && .DISCUSSION... Temperatures have trended even higher today (1-4 degrees at noon), and are well above normal. The big change is that winds are generally much lighter than yesterday, though there are still some northerly gusts up to 20 mph through the morning for the northern Sacramento Valley. Humidity levels this afternoon are generally 4 to 8 percent higher, 8 to 10 percent in the Delta, so along with the lighter winds fire concerns are elevated but generally not critical. Low humidity levels and periods of breezy onshore winds will continue into next week. Onshore flow, increasing humidity and cooling temperatures are expected mid to late week, further lessening fire weather concerns. Triple digit Valley highs are expected this afternoon and continue through at least the early weekend in many locations. Widespread Moderate HeatRisk is present this afternoon, with areas of Major HeatRisk, mainly for the northern Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills. Delta breeze influenced locations will see some cooling through the weekend, while the northern Sacramento Valley, mountains, and foothills are forecast to see just slightly lower highs. The Heat Advisory continues for the northern and central Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills through 11 pm Saturday, June 13th. While other areas in the Valley will benefit from the Delta breeze cooling influence, especially in the evening, it remains important for everyone in interior NorCal to practice heat safety! Stay cool and hydrated, and consider checking in on those more sensitive to heat. Early next week high temperatures have trended even higher for the northern and central Sacramento Valley, and could see even higher temperatures than for late this week, up to 110 in some northern Sacramento Valley locations. Probability of Major HeatRisk has continued to trend larger there, around 100 percent in some spots, so confidence is high. An Extreme Heat Warning has been issued for the northern Sacramento Valley, adjacent mountains and foothills, and Butte County from 11 am Sunday to 11 pm Tuesday. Temperatures are forecast to trend lower mid to late week, back to near normal Thursday. Mainly dry weather is expected into next week. Still can`t completely rule out a few stray showers or an isolated thunderstorm over the Sierra crest south of US HWY 50 over the weekend into Monday. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions with clear skies over the next 24 hours. Winds generally less than 12 kts everywhere this afternoon, except in the vicinity of the Delta, where westerly gusts up to 25 kts remain until around 12z Saturday. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Saturday for Butte County Below 1000 ft-Central Colusa County Incl. I-5-Central Glenn Co & Interstate 5-Eastern Colusa County-Eastern Glenn County-N. Sac Valley in Tehama County-Shasta Metro-Sierra (Tehama-Plumas) 1000- 3000 ft-Sutter/Yuba counties below 1000 ft-W Tehama Co Foothills 1000-3000 ft-W. Glenn/Colusa Foothills 1000-3000 ft-W. Shasta County 1000-3000 ft. Extreme Heat Warning 11 AM PDT Sunday to 11 PM Tuesday PDT for the northern Sacramento Valley, surrounding mountains and foothills, and Butte County. && $$

409 FXUS65 KMSO 121837 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1237 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - A cold front will move north to south through this evening, bringing scattered thunderstorms, localized heavy rain, and wind gusts up to 40 mph. - High pressure this weekend into early next week bringing warming trend, with 80s for western Montana and mid-upper 90s for central Idaho. - West-northwest flow pattern by middle of next week, opening the door for periodic disturbances, showers, and thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms have developed across Lincoln and Flathead County early this afternoon, with satellite imagery pointing towards convection initiate north of the I-90 corridor within the next few hours. A potent shortwave and surface cold front remain on track to move southward from Canada through this evening. High-resolution models are in good agreement for showers and thunderstorms to progress southward through this evening, arriving along the Interstate 90 corridor between 5:00 pm and 8:00 pm local time. Showers and thunderstorms will struggle to organize as vertical profiles suggest limited moisture and wind shear. The lack of shear suggests pulse convection, which radar imagery has pointed towards thus far. Given this, thunderstorm cores will primarily bring local heavy rain and gusty outflow wind concerns. The heavier rain rates will focus across northwest Montana and over the higher terrain, with rainfall rates of 0.30 to 0.50 inches per hour. High resolution models suggest erratic microburst outflow up to 40 mph, moving north to south as convection develops along the cold front. Those with outdoor recreation plans on areas lake should monitor conditions closely, especially on Flathead Lake. Convective development will decrease rapidly as the front crosses south of the I-90 corridor and the sun sets, keeping north- central Idaho and southwest Montana largely dry. Cool, breezy northerly flow establishes behind the front on Saturday. Model ensembles are in strong agreement (90% confidence in cluster analysis) for high pressure to build and shift inland along the Pacific Northwest coast this weekend. This leaves the Northern Rockies positioned under west-northwest flow aloft with strong subsidence and warming to our west. Valley temperatures will climb into the upper-70s and 80s across western Montana. Extreme low elevation river valleys of central Idaho will push into the mid-to-upper 90s by Tuesday. Forecast uncertainty begins to increase by the middle of next week. Model cluster analysis points towards differences with the upper level ridge and trough axis west and east of the Northern Rockies. Overall, ensemble means place the Northern Rockies within west-northwest flow aloft between the ridge axis to the west and trough axis to the east. Historically, our area is susceptible to disturbances dropping southeastward from Canada, opening the door for shower and thunderstorm activity. Model clusters have different ideas on the amount of moisture, instability, and forcing within these disturbances. The current official forecast has showers and thunderstorms along the divide and in northwest Montana, with other areas remaining mostly dry. Around 20% of model ensemble clusters bring showers and thunderstorms into western Montana and north-central Idaho by Wednesday through Friday. Those with outdoor plans by the middle to end of next week should monitor the forecast closely. && .AVIATION... A cold front is diving south out of Canada this afternoon. Frontal passage is causing scattered thunderstorms capable of localized MVFR visibility/ceilings in embedded heavy downpours, small hail, and erratic outflow wind gusts as high as 40 knots. Post-frontal northerly winds will remain gusty before stabilizing late overnight. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

369 FXUS65 KBOI 130601 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 1201 AM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry through Monday. - Tuesday is hot with gusty winds likely. - Remaining dry but not as hot starting Wednesday with gusty afternoon winds continuing. && .SHORT TERM /Through Monday Night/... Issued 230 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2026 A weak front will kick through the region this evening bringing gusty winds to portions of e-central Oregon and the lower Snake Plain of Idaho. Gusts of 25-35 mph will impact Baker and northern Malheur counties in Oregon and the Weiser basin and along the Snake River in Idaho through about midnight. For the weekend, an upper ridge off the West Coast will keep our area under northwest flow. Dry and stable air aloft will cap any potential for precipitation development. Will see little change in temperatures from today to Saturday. More notable warming will show up on Sunday as the ridge axis reaches the coast. && .LONG TERM /Tuesday through Saturday/... Issued 230 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2026 Guidance remains in agreement on synoptic pattern dominated by an upper-level ridge over Pacific and West Coast and broad low pressure over Canada. The boundary between these two systems is an area of drying, warming, and clear conditions with gusty afternoon winds. Monday and Tuesday climb several degrees each, with Tuesday being the warmest and driest day in the forecast. The Snake Plain and high desert of SW Idaho and SE Oregon will see afternoon high temperatures in the mid to low 90s on Tuesday. At the same time on Tuesday, a shortwave in the Canadian low skims our region and briefly strengthens the upper flow and surface wind speed. The current forecast has 30-40 mph gusts coincident with very hot temperatures and RHs in the 10s and single digits. This will lead to a potentially critical fire weather pattern, assuming the forecast holds firm. Later in the week, a close low amplifies and works into the ridge area dropping temperatures slightly from 15 degrees above normal on Tuesday to 5-10 degrees above normal Wednesday through Friday. Winds continue to gust 20-30 mph in the upper Snake Plain through this period, and as the low approaches the chance for thunderstorms along the NV border increases Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION /06Z Saturday through Sunday/... Issued 1201 AM MDT SAT JUN 13 2026 VFR, few high clouds. Surface winds: NW 10-20 kt with gusts to 20-35 kt through early AM, then variable 5-15 kt rest of Saturday AM. Becoming NW-NE 10-20 kt with gusts to 20-30 kt Saturday afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: NW-N 15-25 kt. KBOI...VFR, few high clouds. Surface winds: W-N 5-15 kt. Gusts to 20- 25 kt will return Saturday afternoon. Sunday Outlook...VFR and passing high clouds. A few afternoon mountain cumulus. Surface winds: variable 5-15 kt Sunday AM, then NW- NE 5-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt in the afternoon. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....JDS SHORT TERM...DG LONG TERM....JM

595 FXUS65 KLKN 130828 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 128 AM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Fair weather and warmer temperatures are expected through this weekend. * Confidence is increasing with respect to well above normal temperatures by early next week && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Saturday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Fair weather, warming temperatures, and light to breezy afternoon winds continue as upper ridge builds in from the west coast. westerly afternoon winds to run at 10 MPH to 20 MPH with a few gusts up to 30 MPH possible through Saturday. Sunday and Monday a quick moving trough will pass through the WNW flow over the Pacific NW. Models which have struggled with this feature, no show this trough splitting with the main energy staying within the westerly flow, and a weak cutoff low over central California. This will shift winds to the north, but models do keep speeds similar to prior afternoons. Winds shift back to the west Tuesday through Friday. Also Sunday, a small weak shortwave will be passing through Arizona, for the most part sensible weather from this system will be south of our area, but enough moisture may make it to far SW White Pine County to trigger a isolated thundershower or two for Great Basin NP. The main headline feature will be the warm-up of temperatures this week into the next. High temperatures look to warm from the low 80s to low 90s Thursday, back into the upper 80s to upper 90s by next Wednesday. Overnight lows will also warm, rising back into the upper 40s to upper 50s by Sunday morning. This will have to be watched for the potential Heat headlines for Elko county for next week. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence for quiet, dry weather conditions with warming temperatures lasting through next week. There moderate confidence in the potential for heat issues for northeastern Nevada for the middle of next week. There is low confidence in the chances for isolated wet or dry thunderstorms Sunday afternoon for SW White Pine County. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions look to be the primary flight conditions through Saturday. Winds will be WNW at 10KT to 20KT with occasional gusts up to 30KT possible. && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated fire weather concerns possible over the next few days as the upper level ridge builds east. West to NW winds of 10 to 20 MPH with a few gusts up to 30 MPH possible through Saturday. A splitting trough passing to the north will shift winds out of the north Sunday and Monday, but speeds remain similar. A small shortwave moving through Arizona along with a weak upper low from the splitting northern stream trough over California, will try to pull some moisture into southern White Pine County Sunday afternoon to trigger isolated mix of wet or dry thunderstorms. Warming temperatures will continue throughout the period with highs peeking in the upper 80s to upper 90s by Next Wednesday. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...98 AVIATION...98 FIRE WEATHER...98