613 FXUS66 KSEW 011636 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 936 AM PDT Thu Oct 1 2026 .SYNOPSIS...A weak system will bring precipitation chances across northern portions of Western Washington. Warmer and drier conditions Friday into the weekend with high pressure settling over the region. Onshore flow returns next week for a return of closer to normal temperatures but continued dry conditions into next week. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...Mid and high clouds continue across portions of Western Washington this morning. An upper-level zonal pattern will remain over the region through Friday afternoon. A weak system system moving northeast into British Columbia will clip portions of northern Western Washington and bring the chance for light showers for the North Coast, Olympic Peninsula, and Whatcom County today into Friday. Today`s high temperatures will be in the upper 50s to low 60s along the coast and mid to upper 60s. Warmer and drier conditions Friday into Saturday as surface high pressure builds over the region. High temperatures will warm into the low 60s along the coast and upper 60s to low 70s in the interior. Additionally, a thermal trough will build along the coast on Saturday, leading to surface winds to switch offshore. 29 && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...Ensemble guidance remains consistent with high pressure in place over the region with a thermal trough remaining over the area. This will bring light offshore flow to the region and maintain temperatures above normal on Sunday. With the thermal trough pushing eastward and a return to onshore flow, expect to see temperatures trend a few degrees cooler for the start of next week with increased morning clouds. Dry conditions are likely to continue through at least the middle of next week. && .AVIATION...VFR with high clouds today. BCFG has been observed across a couple of inland terminals this morning but should subside by 16-17z. While winds will be light tonight, high clouds passing through should help limit fog development. A weak weather system moving into British Columbia could bring light rain showers near northernmost terminals (CLM & BLI) today. Calm to light northerly surface winds this morning. Surface winds will transition southerly late this evening. KSEA...VFR conditions will prevail today with high clouds. Surface winds northwesterly at 5-6 kt or less. Winds will shift southerly late this evening around 07Z. 29 && .MARINE...High pressure returns to the waters this week. A passing front to the north may clip the waters, but won`t do much to increase any marine weather concerns. A building thermal trough will bring northerly or offshore breezes over the weekend. Seas become a little steeper over the coastal waters as a result, but expect conditions to remain well short of steepness criteria for an advisory. Otherwise, the breakdown of the high pressure could bring a stronger westerly push late Monday through Strait of Juan de Fuca, and represents the next potential chance for advisory conditions. && .FIRE WEATHER...Fire weather concerns remain minimal through the next few days. Developing high pressure aloft this weekend with a thermal trough building up the coastline will bring warm temperatures and light offshore flow. This could result in locations in the Cascades and adjacent valleys seeing minimum RH values approach 30% on Sunday. This will be short lived, with onshore flow returning early next week to boost humidity values and cool temperatures. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...None. && $$

248 FXUS66 KPQR 011740 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 1040 AM PDT Thu Oct 1 2026 Updated Aviation Discussion... .SYNOPSIS...Dry weather persists going forward accompanied by a warming trend into the weekend as a ridge of high pressure builds overhead - well above normal temperatures by Sat/Sun. Expect patchy morning fog at times across inland valleys as well, although offshore winds develop Saturday and Sunday may limit the coverage of fog somewhat. Otherwise, little in the way of weather impacts through at least the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION...Now through Wednesday...Our dry streak continues for at least the next week as a above normal temperatures become a common theme to start October. At least for today however, a weak weather system is expected to brush the Pacific Northwest to the north near Vancouver Island helping to keep the ridge flatter than it otherwise would be while also streaming high clouds across the region from time to time. 850 mb temperatures warm several degrees compared to yesterday (Wednesday) which will in turn allow afternoon highs to warm into the mid to upper 70s across the interior lowlands today. The NBM even gives portions of the Willamette Valley a 10-30% chance to exceed 80 degrees, the first of many increasing chances to pass this threshold as we move onward into the weekend. Expect temperatures to jump a few more degrees Friday and especially Saturday/Sunday as the upper level ridge amplifies over the Pacific NW along with mostly sunny skies each afternoon. Temperatures likely warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s on Saturday before warming a few more degrees, into the lower to mid-80s on Sunday. Most areas are not expected to reach record high temps, but the record of 84 degrees on Sunday at PDX could be in jeopardy. Offshore flow could also bring slightly warmer temperatures to the coast as well with highs into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Throughout the end of the week into the weekend the combination of overnight clearing/longer nights, locally lighter winds, and a fairly prominent temperature inversion will facilitate fog development. But, the placement of valley fog likely shifts to some of our more protected valley areas over the weekend as the previously mentioned offshore flow develops - this is a point of notable forecast uncertainty. Should the overnight offshore flow/east winds end up weaker or decoupled from the boundary layer over the Willamette valley, fog end up fairly decent in coverage. The REFS and even the ECMWF points to this foggier scenario playing out at least on Saturday morning. Wherever present, fog will greatly reduce visibility and may potentially impact travel. Underneath this upper-level ridge pattern over the next several days, ensembles indicate a near surface thermal trough develops along the coast on Friday through this weekend. This pattern is expected to cause winds to shift from the onshore (westerly) pattern the area has generally been observing over the past couple of weeks to offshore (east to northeasterly). At this time, pressure gradients do not look to be very high, peaking at a -3mb to -4mb difference between PDX and DLS, so winds aren`t expected to be strong. Instead, expect to see a typical diurnal behavior of winds becoming easterly on the west side of terrain (mainly Cascades, potentially tops of the coast range as well) during the overnight to morning hours, increasing to peak gusts up to 20-35 mph. Then, as mixing gets underway and the inversion breaks, winds decrease over the terrain during the day and increase through the valley from the north in the afternoon hours with gusts up to 20 mph. Exploring the NBM, the probability of wind gusts peaking above 30 mph is less than 10-25% everywhere except in the western Columbia River Gorge and surrounding terrain at 40-55%, which is generally the windiest location during offshore easterly flow. By Monday, the vast majority of ensemble members indicate the ridge axis shifts east of WA and OR, allowing the overall flow to turn back onshore while bringing an end to the locally breezier east winds. Temperatures lower again into the 70s to near 80 for the interior valleys Monday afternoon into the middle of the week, though we`ll remain generally 5 to 10 above normal for early October. For better or worse, ensemble guidance is adamant in the continuation of dry weather through the middle of next week, potentially longer. -99/DH && .AVIATION...Through 18Z Friday...High pressure over the region brings widespread VFR conditions with high clouds, expected to continue through at least 12Z Fri. After 12Z Friday, chances of deteriorated conditions increase throughout the airspace. Specifically, chances at KAST and KONP are around 20% for LIFR, 30% for IFR, and 40-50% for MVFR after 12Z Fri. As for inland terminals, chances are around 10-15% for LIFR, 20% for IFR, and 30% for MVFR after 12Z Fri. While such conditions will consist of CIGs and VIS, CIGs are more likely. Otherwise, light and variable winds will become north/northwesterly winds of 5-10 kt by this afternoon, strongest at KONP, KSLE, and KEUG. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR with high clouds and north-northwesterly winds 3-6 kt through the TAF period. ~12 && .MARINE...We`ll see the continuation of calmer weather today as a weak weather system brushes the waters to the north, temporarily shifting winds out of the west around Cape Falcon northward. Northerly winds then return across the entire waters Friday, likely persisting through the weekend into early next week. Wind gusts generally rise in the 10-20 knot range through this period. Otherwise, the west to northwesterly swell of ~6 ft at 9 to 11 seconds gradually subside to around 3 to 5 ft at 8 to 9 seconds by Friday into the weekend. At this time, there are no other prominent swells of note through at least the the middle of next week. -99/12 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

703 FXUS66 KMFR 011725 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1025 AM PDT Thu Oct 1 2026 .Updated AVIATION Discussion... && .AVIATION...01/18Z TAFs..VFR prevails across the region, with the exception of MVFR ceilings in the Umpqua Basin. This will improve to VFR by 20z. VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period for most areas. Expect the return of LIFR conditions along the coast north of Cape Blanco and south of Gold Beach tonight into Friday morning. Cloud cover should be less extensive in the Umpqua Basin tonight, but MVFR ceilings could impact the Roseburg terminal around sunrise again Friday morning. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 520 AM PDT Thu Oct 1 2026/ KEY MESSAGES... * Warm and dry conditions are expected across northern California and southern Oregon through the 7-day forecast period. * Temperatures peak on Saturday and Sunday at 10 to 15 degrees above normal, with chances for more seasonal temperatures towards the end of next week. DISCUSSION...An upper level ridge continues to dictate the forecast for northern California and southern Oregon for much of the week ahead. For today, daytime highs look to rise about 5 degrees from Wednesday`s for most areas. This will put most coastal areas as well as the Umpqua Valley in the mid 70s to low 80s. Oddly enough, Brookings may see some cooling as a change in wind direction prevents warm downslope flow into the city. Other west side valleys as well as Modoc County basins look to be in the high 80s to low 90s. Lake and Klamath counties will be in the high 70s to low 80s. These temperatures to be present on Friday as well, with some minor fluctuations. The ridge`s influence expands northward over the weekend. Current forecasting has Siskiyou and Modoc counties staying at the same temperatures while Oregon counties warm by another 5 degrees.This will put west side areas in the low to mid 90s, while areas east of the Cascades look to be in the mid 80s through the weekend. There`s some agreement between models that temperatures decrease slightly into next week as the ridge flattens somewhat and zonal flow aloft develops. Long term meteogram guidance keeps precipitation out of the 7-day forecast period. There are some signals that a cold front may reach the area and bring some coastal showers in the 10-day range. While agreement in precipitation chances is slight to moderate, agreement in cooler temperatures is somewhat more complete. But either way, there`s little expectation of impactful weather in the forecast period. With that said, unimpactful weather does not mean unimportant weather. Warm temperatures that stay short of summer highs make outdoor activities appealing but ongoing dry conditions have offered little change from summer fire weather concerns. Dry grasses and leaves are still present in many areas, which may make fire ignition quick if sparks are created. Please be aware of these conditions if you choose to do any camping or outdoor maintenance in the near future. -TAD MARINE...Updated 300 AM PDT Thursday, October 01, 2026...As the thermal trough expands northward, steep seas will spread north to around Coos Bay today, with very steep seas persisting south of Gold Beach through tonight. Winds ease some Friday, but steep seas will persist from Coos Bay southward. As the thermal trough moves inland over the weekend, expect conditions to improve some, especially for the inner waters, though gusty north winds and steep seas are likely to be present well into next week. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ350-370. Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376. && $$

361 FXUS66 KEKA 011814 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 1114 AM PDT Thu Oct 1 2026 .AVIATION...18Z UPDATE...Stratus continues along the coast this morning. Eddies along the coast are continuously bring lower ceilings and degraded visibilities to terminals. Conditions are bouncing between 1/2SM to P6SM for coastal terminals and this is expected to continue until around 22Z or so when a few hours of clearing is possible. Light winds (<10kt) are expected today for coastal areas. Overcast and LIFR conditions are possible tonight, yet offshore winds could push the marine layer off the coast enough to keep VFR through the bulk of the evening until around 11Z (+/- 1hr). Inland terminals are expected to have gusty, upvalley winds this afternoon with VFR through the TAF period. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 445 AM PDT Thu Oct 1 2026/ KEY MESSAGES... * Unseasonably hot temperatures will build through the end of the week, peaking around Saturday. Such temperatures will generate Moderate HeatRisk across the interior. * Shallow, diurnal marine layer persisting along the coast through the weekend. * Nearly 0% chance of wetting rain for the next 10 days. SYNOPSIS...High pressure building into the weekend will bring unseasonably hot and dry conditions to the interior. Morning fog will be most likely along the coast with quick clearing into the afternoon. Winds will generally be light. DISCUSSION...Unusually strong high pressure will build across the area today and persist through the weekend. For the interior, this will mean hot and dry conditions with weak terrain winds. Saturday will most likely be the hottest day with some interior locations likely to approach 100. Such temperatures are unusual for October. AT KUKI, for example, NBM has a 50% chance of temperatures hitting 101, which would ties the all time high for the day. Along with this, Moderate HeatRisk will cover most of the interior with isolated high Heat Risk in southern Mendocino and Lake Counties. Longer and cooler nights will generally prevent Heat Risk from climber higher. Closer to shore, a stronger marine inversion will promote a shallow but resilient marine layer aided by weak onshore flow. Looking further ahead, high pressure will very slowly weaken early next week, though above average interior temperatures will most likely linger until mid week. Most models show a weak cutoff low impacting the area. At most, this low will lift the marine layer and promote some drizzle. Just a few ensemble members (5%) indicate it may produce very weak interior thunderstorms around Monday afternoon. Other than weakening high pressure, there is no impactful weather on the horizon. There remains a near zero chance of wetting precipitation for at least the next 10 days. Long Range forecast suggest this dry pattern is most likely to persist through at least the second week of October. /JHW .AVIATION...12z TAF UPDATE...Fog has settled in along the coast Thursday morning. Morning compression is bringing areas of dense fog and 1/4SM VIS. Though the layer is shallow, light westerly to southerly winds around a coastal eddy will likely inhibit morning improvement. Some afternoon scattering is possible before the stratus quickly fills back in. The layer is expected to remain shallow with more fog VIS. MARINE...Near gale force gusts have pushed away from shore and into the outer waters Wednesday evening. These winds will gradually weaken with more moderate to strong wind gusts during the day on Thursday. Winds will remain remarkably calmer closer to shore. Steep short period seas over 10 feet will remain in the outer waters with some steeper seas around 7 feet at 9 seconds pushing into the inner waters. Beyond short period seas, a very minor southwest swell is augmenting the sea state. Winds will weaken through the weekend as high pressure pushes east of the area. Outer water gusts will most likely drop below 21 kts by Saturday afternoon with seas also dropping below 5 feet. These more subdued conditions will likely persist into early next week. /JHW FIRE WEATHER...Hotter and drier weather building through the weekend will increase fire danger. Near record high temperatures for October will aid in ERC values cresting back near the 90th percentile early next week. That said, very weak terrain winds and increasingly long nights will prevent Burning Index values from reaching above the 70th percentile. These values imply fire may be unusually easy to ignite but spread potential is only moderate. There is little chance of weather induced ignitions with only a very minimal (<5%) chance of weak and isolated interior thunderstorms late this weekend. /JHW && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Friday for PZZ470-475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

155 FXUS66 KMTR 011731 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1031 AM PDT Thu Oct 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1156 PM PDT Wed Sep 30 2026 - Elevated fire weather conditions across the higher terrain Thursday - Moderate to major HeatRisk across the interior through Wednesday - Minor coastal flooding for bayshore locations along the San Francisco Bay, San Pablo Bay, and Monterey Bay Thursday && .UPDATE... Issued at 948 AM PDT Thu Oct 1 2026 A Heat Advisory has been issued for Saturday and Sunday across the Sonoma Coastal Range, the North Bay Interior Mountains, the San Francisco Bay Shoreline, the East Bay and South Bay, the Santa Cruz Mountains, the Santa Lucia Range, the interior mountains of Monterey and San Benito Counties, and the southern Salinas Valley. High temperatures will reach the middle 90s to near 103, with mild lows in the higher elevations (upper 60s to middle 70s) limiting overnight recovery from the warm conditions. Moderate to Major HeatRisk is expected across the warned area, with impacts to anyone without adequate cooling or hydration. Follow these tips to avoid heat-related illnesses this weekend: * Stay hydrated and drink plenty of fluids. * Wear lightweight, light-colored clothing. * Reduce time spent outdoors or stay in the shade. * Never leave people or pets unattended in vehicles. * Use sunscreen if going to the coast or the pool. DialH && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1156 PM PDT Wed Sep 30 2026 (Thursday and Friday) The 00Z sounding observed an 850 mb temperature of 21.75 degrees Celsius and a 500 mb height of 5880 meters; both of these are near the 90th percentile of 20.7 degrees Celsius and 5884 meters, respectively. The anomalously warm airmass will yield temperatures 10 degrees above normal with moderate HeatRisk for the interior. An impressive compressed marine layer will keep coastal locations cool and lead to reduced visibility during the overnight periods. Another morning of offshore flow with dry conditions will bring elevated fire weather conditions to the higher terrain. Gusts of 25-35 mph are expected with gusts up to 45 mph for the highest and most exposed peaks such as Mt. St. Helena. Minor coastal flooding for bayshore locations along the San Francisco Bay, San Pablo Bay, and Monterey Bay will occur during high tide Thursday afternoon. Depending on how Thursday`s forecast verifies, the Coastal Flood Advisory may need to be extended through Friday evening, at least for San Pablo Bay if not all bays. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1156 PM PDT Wed Sep 30 2026 (Saturday through Wednesday) Anomalously high heights, 90th percentile 850 mb temperatures and 500 mb heights, and EFI values of 0.90 or greater for maximum and minimum temperatures all point to it being hot across the interior Saturday through Wednesday. Global ensemble clusters are in agreement that the heat will peak Saturday as upper-level longwave ridging drifts in from the Eastern Pacific Ocean. An upper-level shortwave trough will skirt the region Sunday; however, it`ll have little impact as it merely pauses the warming trend. Upper-level ridging will rebuild across the region from the east Monday through Wednesday. These subtle changes will have little impact on temperatures and HeatRisk with temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above normal and widespread moderate with areas of major HeatRisk expected across the interior. As is typical for heat events, the greatest uncertainty is at the coast due to the marine layer. As it stands right now, a compressed marine layer around 500 feet may be able to hang on. If it erodes or offshore flow develops in the mornings, coastal spots will be hotter than currently forecast. In terms of a Heat Advisory, it will likely be for a majority of the interior; the soonest it would be in effect would be Saturday with a chance for it to linger into early-to-mid next week. As a proxy, eastern San Francisco has a 90% probability of reaching 80 degrees on Saturday, followed by 70% on Sunday, and 50% Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures will cool off overnight; however, the weaker than normal onshore flow will bring less relief than normal. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 AM PDT Thu Oct 1 2026 Patchy LIFR conditions persist over OAK and HAF while VFR conditions have returned to other terminals. Expecting VFR conditions to persist with an increase in onshore winds by the afternoon and early evening hours. Expecting similar conditions as this morning tonight and into Friday as the marine layer looks to hold around 1,000 feet in depth. Stratus and/or fog will begin to dissipate by mid-morning on Friday with an increase in onshore winds. Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Onshore winds increase up to around 15 kt this afternoon before easing late in the evening. The greatest probability of seeing sub-MVFR will be between 12Z-17Z Friday, thus have included it in the official forecast at this time. SFO Bridge Approach...Greater probability of sub-MVFR between 12Z- 17Z Friday. Otherwise, similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Onshore winds increase this afternoon before easing after sunset. There is high confidence for sub-IFR ceilings and/or patchy fog to develop late this evening and persist into early Friday morning. Southerly winds are likely at SNS Friday morning before switching onshore by early afternoon. && .MARINE... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 948 AM PDT Thu Oct 1 2026 Northwest winds will diminish and become gentle to moderate by late this morning, allowing seas to steadily abate to moderate by Friday. Marine conditions improve Friday into the weekend. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for CAZ006- 506-508-529-530. Heat Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 10 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ503- 504-508-510-512>518. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sarment LONG TERM....Sarment AVIATION...RGass MARINE...RGass Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

814 FXUS66 KOTX 011644 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 944 AM PDT Thu Oct 1 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures gradually trend warmer heading into the weekend. Afternoon highs peak in the 70s to low 80s Saturday through Monday. - Mainly dry conditions are forecast with the exception of shower chances for the North Cascades Thursday and Friday. && .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures will trend warmer through the end of the week, rising into the 70s and low 80s by the weekend. Conditions are looking benign through the first week of October with mainly dry conditions and light winds. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Friday: Zonal westerly flow prevails across the Inland Northwest through Friday, maintaining the quiet, unimpactful weather pattern. A weak wave embedded in the zonal flow will bring passing high clouds regionwide today and low chances for showers across the North Cascades. Any showers that develop over the North Cascades will be very light with chances for measurable precipitation (greater than 0.01 inches) ranging from 20 to 30 percent. Elsewhere, conditions will remain dry. Temperatures today will peak in the mid 60s to low 70s, then will warm by around 5 degrees for Friday, rising into the upper 60s to upper 70s. While afternoon temperatures will be warm, mornings will still feel crisp and fall-like thanks to radiational cooling under mostly clear skies and light winds. Low temperatures will range from the upper 30s across the sheltered northern valleys to the low 50s for the warmest spots further south including Wenatchee and Lewiston. Saturday through Monday: An upper level ridge builds over the weekend, and as the ridge builds, high temperatures will continue to climb. Afternoon highs will peak Saturday through Monday in the mid 70s to low 80s, 10 to 15 degrees above climatological normals for early October. Tuesday and Wednesday: Ensembles generally agree on a low pressure system dropping into the Gulf of Alaska by the middle of next week, flattening the upper-level ridge across the Inland Northwest and transitioning the flow pattern back to a zonal regime. Increased moisture moving in aloft will bring some clouds over the northern mountains, but the forecast remains dry. High temperatures will cool slightly, returning to the low to upper 70s across the lower elevations. /Fewkes && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: High clouds will persist regionwide through the afternoon and evening, clearing overnight into Friday morning. Winds will be light (less than 10 kts) through the 24 hour period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions through the period. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 45 74 45 74 45 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 44 72 45 74 45 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 45 73 46 76 46 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 51 79 51 79 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 38 73 38 76 39 79 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 41 69 41 71 42 75 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 46 71 45 73 46 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 45 77 45 78 46 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 52 77 53 75 54 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 43 75 45 76 46 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

993 FXUS66 KPDT 011740 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1040 AM PDT Thu Oct 1 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Upper level high pressure building over the region through next week, with dry conditions prevailing - Temperatures begin to slowly increase today, with peak temperatures expected early next week (temperatures 5 to 15 degrees above normal) - Light, diurnally driven winds will prevail each day && .DISCUSSION... Nighttime satellite imagery tonight shows decks of cirrus moving east across the northern two-thirds of the forecast area, while mid level stratus over the Yakima/Kittitas valleys peaks through breaks in the cirrus. Through the middle of next week, ensemble and deterministic model guidance stay in great agreement of the PacNW remaining under the influence of upper level ridging or zonal flow aloft. Through Friday night, the upper level ridge will remain quite flat over the PacNW due to separate shortwave passages through southern BC Thursday and Friday (confidence 75-90%). Meanwhile, the upper level ridge will amplify over the eastern Pacific during this period, then slide inland over the weekend (confidence 70-85%). Monday the ridge axis will push east of the PacNW as an upper trough slides into northern BC, with zonal flow developing overhead and high pressure aloft to the south (confidence 65-70%). By Tuesday through Wednesday, ensemble guidance is in great agreement of upper level ridging building back over the PacNW then amplifying poleward. Through Monday, temperatures will be on a gradual increase, with peak afternoon temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s Monday (confidence 65-75%). Temperatures will drop a couple degrees into Tuesday, but expect high temperatures to remain in the upper 70s to low 80s. Conditions are expected to remain dry into middle of next week with light, diurnally driven winds each day. The exception will be Monday, where breezy winds (15-20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph) will develop through the Cascade gaps as surface pressure gradients slightly strengthen in response to the upper trough passing to the north. Lawhorn/82 && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... VFR conditions are very likely (90% chance or higher) for all TAF sites through the period; there is a very low (10%) chance of VSBY reductions overnight into Friday morning at RDM, with even lower chances elsewhere. Otherwise, predominantly FEW-BKN cirrus will overspread the Pacific Northwest for the next 24 hrs, with low confidence (30% or less) in some periodic mid- level stratus. Winds will be light and diurnally/terrain driven through the period. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 74 47 78 47 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 75 53 79 52 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 77 47 81 49 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 74 50 80 50 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 76 48 81 50 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 69 45 75 46 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 77 42 81 42 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 76 48 81 47 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 81 47 82 47 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 80 54 83 53 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...82 AVIATION...86

555 FXUS65 KREV 010725 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1225 AM PDT Thu Oct 1 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry weather prevails through Saturday with above normal temperatures lasting through next week. * Weak low pressure brings a low chance of showers and thunderstorms in the eastern Sierra and northeast CA on Sunday into Monday. * Warmer and drier than normal weather is favored through at least mid-October. && .DISCUSSION... Large scale ridge over the western U.S. will be the dominant feature through next week. The only exception to this is a weak low pressure moving through the region on Sunday into Monday. After this low pressure moves out, models and ensembles have good agreement that high pressure will once again re-strengthen across the western U.S. Weather-wise, with this ridge overhead temperatures will trend upward today through Saturday. During this time, mid 80s to low 90s will be common for western NV valleys, eastern Lassen, and the lower elevations of Mono County. Temperatures for the eastern Sierra valleys will range from the mid 70s to mid 80s, with even upper 50s to mid 60s for the higher elevations. These temperatures are upwards of 10-15 degrees above average, and more analogous to readings we see in late August. Speaking of the aforementioned weak low pressure, the most this feature will do is decrease temperatures on Sunday and Monday by around 1-3 degrees. Also, models and blended guidance have trended lower with precipitation chances for the eastern Sierra and northeast CA on Sunday and Monday, now at only 5-10%. After this weak low moves out, we remain dry with well above average temperatures all the way into next week. That`s all I have folks. Enjoy the warm weather while you can. -McKellar && .AVIATION... High pressure maintains widespread VFR conditions and light breezes into the weekend. A weak low pressure passage will deliver a low chance (5-10%) of showers and thunderstorms to KTRK-KTVL-KMMH Sunday into Monday. -McKellar && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$

152 FXUS66 KSTO 011853 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1153 AM PDT Thu Oct 1 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat Advisory will go into effect 11 AM Sat - 5 PM Mon (10/3 through 10/5) for portions of the Sacramento Valley, Delta, northern San Joaquin Valley, and adjacent foothills. - High temperatures, 10-20 degrees above normal, will lead to widespread Moderate HeatRisk in the Delta, Valley, and foothills Today - Tuesday, with areas of Major HeatRisk. && .DISCUSSION... ...Today & Friday (10/01-10/02)... High pressure aloft will be the headline for at least the next 7 days, with continued dry and hot conditions expected. For today, highs will reach the low to mid 90s across most of the Valley with upper 70s to upper 80s for the higher elevations. Weak surge of monsoonal moisture will push through portions of the area on Friday, along with weak offshore troughing, will help facilitate the development of scattered high clouds tomorrow. Resulting cloud cover will help mitigate some of the unseasonably hot temperatures, but really only lowering highs by a degree or two. Moderate HeatRisk across the Delta and portions of the Sacramento Valley (south of I-80) remain in the forecast, then mostly Minor on Friday with the cloud coverage and somewhat improved onshore flow. ...Saturday-Monday (10/03-10/05)... Latest model runs keep high pressure firmly in control of the weather pattern as we move into the weekend and early next week. High temperatures will continue to climb well-above normal (10-20 degrees) for a significant portion of the Valley, Delta, and adjacent foothills/thermal belts. Offshore flow on Saturday and Sunday will lead to areas of Major HeatRisk in the Delta and surrounding terrain, with Moderate HeatRisk for the rest of the region. With unseasonably hot temperatures, combined with limited Delta Breeze/overnight cooling, and potential societal impacts, we have issued a Heat Advisory for the aforementioned areas that will go into effect 10AM Saturday morning and continue through 5PM Monday. Several large-scale activities, along with local Fall events take place this weekend, so if you are outside remember to drink plenty of water/stay hydrated, find shade and take breaks, and check on those most sensitive to heat illness! ...Tuesday and beyond...Extended guidance keeps us under broad ridging through the middle of next week, with some slight uncertainty if mid to upper 90s will continue late next week. Cluster analysis reveals overall agreement in at least upper level ridging remaining in the region, however the strength and a slight shift to zonal heights aloft appear in some cluster members. Regardless, we expect at least slightly above normal to above normal high temperatures to continue through at least Wednesday of next week. Will continue to monitor temperature/HeatRisk trends to see if the Heat Advisory needs to be extended into Tuesday/Wednesday. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions prevail across interior NorCal next 24 hours. Surface wind gusts generally below 12 kts across the Valley, wind gusts up to 15 kts in the Delta through 06z Friday. Gusts up to 20 kts next 24 hours in the higher terrain. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 10 PM PDT Monday for C. San Joaquin County including Stockton-C. Solano County including Fairfield-C. Stanislaus County including Modesto-C. Yolo/NE Solano including Woodland-Central Colusa County Incl. I-5- Central Motherlode 1000-3000 ft-E. Diablo Range Above 1000 ft- Eastern Colusa County-N. Motherlode 1000-3000 ft-NE San Joaquin Valley Below 1000 ft-SW Solano County including Vallejo-Sac Metro/W. El Dorado/Amador County-Sacramento County Delta-San Joaquin County Delta-Southern Motherlode 1000-3000 ft- Sutter/Yuba counties below 1000 ft-Tracy Triangle Below 1000 ft- W. Stanislaus County Above 1000 ft & I-5-W. Yolo County including Capay/I-505-Yolo / Solano County Hills. && $$

623 FXUS65 KMSO 011902 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 102 PM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Warming and drying trend Friday through Sunday; cool/cold valley lows with patchy frost. - Westerly winds increase Friday afternoon and Monday with passing disturbances. Zonal flow aloft will yield to a building high-pressure ridge across the Northern Rockies Friday through Saturday. This will initiate a warming and drying trend, with daytime high temperatures rising roughly 10 to 15 degrees (or more) above seasonal averages this weekend. Strong nocturnal radiational cooling under clear skies will allow valley temperatures to drop into the 30s overnight, producing patchy frost in cold-prone locations. Isolated, shallow morning valley fog is possible in low-lying basins, though widespread impacts are unlikely. A weak upper-level shortwave tracking along the Canadian border Friday afternoon into Friday night will temporarily tighten pressure gradients, increasing westerly surface wind gusts to 20 to 25 mph across Northwest Montana and higher terrain. Upper-level high pressure will maintain dry, warm conditions on Sunday. A second weak disturbance will slide east through the region Monday into Tuesday, flattening the ridge and bringing an uptick in westerly winds. Some destabilization associated with this feature may support isolated afternoon showers and deeper mixing. High pressure will rebuild mid-to-late next week, maintaining dry and warm conditions. Long-range ensemble guidance shows a low probability (40%) of an upper-level change knocking down the ridge around October 9th to 10th, though confidence remains low this far out. && .AVIATION...Widespread VFR conditions will prevail across the Northern Rockies airspace through Friday morning under passing mid- and high-level clouds. Clear skies and light surface winds tonight will promote strong radiational cooling, leading to isolated morning valley fog in fog-prone basins between 02/1000Z and 02/1500Z, though terminal impacts will remain minimal. A weak shortwave disturbance tracking along the Canadian border Friday afternoon will increase westerly surface winds to 15 to 20 knots at all terminals through Friday evening, generating localized low- level turbulence near ridge crests. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

305 FXUS65 KBOI 011724 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 1124 AM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry with temperatures averaging 10-15 degrees above normal through next week. - Minor disturbance on Monday could bring showers to higher terrain along the NV border and south-central Idaho mountains. && .SHORT TERM /Through Saturday Night/... Issued 308 AM MDT THU OCT 1 2026 An upper ridge centered over the far Southwest U.S. will build northward today and influence the forecast area. Temperatures in southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho will climb around 10 degrees above normal, pushing low elevation temps into the low 80s this afternoon. Further warming is expected Friday and Saturday as high pressure expands, with many lower sites reaching mid 80s. A weak feature will pass to the north on Friday and bring a period of high cloud cover and west/northwest surface winds, but fair conditions are still anticipated through Saturday. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/... Issued 308 AM MDT THU OCT 1 2026 The aforementioned ridge will shift east on Sunday, opening the door for warm southerly flow to infiltrate the area. Temperatures will climb further above normal, peaking in the upper 80s to around 90 for lower sites. A weak disturbance will pass through the region late Sunday into Monday, increasing cloud cover and supporting a low chance (5-10%) of showers near the NV border and south-central Idaho mountains. Temperatures will cool by a couple of degrees Mon/Tue, before the upper ridge rebounds and warm and dry conditions prevail. && .AVIATION /18Z Thursday through Friday/... Issued 1120 AM MDT THU OCT 1 2026 VFR. Areas of thin smoke layers aloft/haze at the surface, especially north of KBNO and near KMYL. Patchy fog in sheltered mountain valleys Friday morning. Surface winds: variable up to 12 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-SW 10-20 kt. KBOI...VFR and mostly clear. Surface winds: light and variable through morning, then NW 3-8 kt in the afternoon. Transitioning to SE 3-8 kt late tonight. Weekend Outlook...VFR Friday through Sunday. Potential for thin smoke layers aloft and haze at the surface due to prescribed burns in the region. Surface winds: SW-NW 5-15 kt Friday, with afternoon gusts around 20 kt near NV border. Then, variable up to 10 kt Sat/Sun. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....CH SHORT TERM...SH LONG TERM....SH

567 FXUS65 KLKN 011852 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1152 AM PDT Thu Oct 1 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Warming trend continues today. * Unseasonably warm Friday through Sunday. * Near record warmth in most of Northern and Central Nevada Friday, Saturday, and Sunday afternoons. * Near record warmth in parts of Northern Nevada Monday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Thursday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: High pressure system continues to strengthen over the southwest which will continue to bring in warmer temperatures and keep weather conditions dry. Warming temperature trends will make most of northern central Nevada be several degrees above normal with near record temperatures on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday afternoons. Each major city in central and northern Nevada will see above 80 degrees with a 70-90% chance of reaching up to 85 degrees (with the exception of Ely and Eureka seeing a 10-50% chance of reaching above 80 degrees). Slightly cooler temperatures expected on Monday, but with highs still remaining several degrees above normal with parts of northern Nevada seeing near record temperatures. Tuesday and through the rest of the week, temperatures cool into the upper 70s for most parts with a few spots in western Nevada staying in the 80s. A weak upper trough is expected to move over northern Nevada early next week, however the system is expected to be very dry giving zero chance of any precipitation in the silver state. The system is what weakens the high pressure system slightly which will stop the gradual warming for next week and keep high temperatures in the upper 70s to 80s. Generally light winds expected throughout the forecast period. && FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in regards to unseasonably warm temperatures reaching to near record Friday and over the weekend. Moderate confidence of a weak upper level trough weakening the high pressure system yet high confidence in regards to no precipitation from this front. High confidence above normal temperatures remain through next week. No changes to grids at this time. && .AVIATION... Look for VFR conditions across all terminals over the next 24 hour period with general light winds staying below 10 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... No elevated fire weather concerns across the forecast period. High pressure system will continue to keep a warming temperature trend over Nevada with unseasonably warm temperatures today and through next week. Warmest temperatures expected tomorrow and over the weekend reaching to near record. Dry weather conditions will also persist from the high pressure, dropping min RH levels down into the single digits in the afternoons, however winds remain light. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...97 AVIATION...97 FIRE WEATHER...97