133 FXUS66 KSEW 092137 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 237 PM PDT Sun Aug 9 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Zonal flow aloft and onshore flow will lead to daytime high temperatures near seasonal normals through the first half of the week. An upper trough passing across British Columbia will lead to a threat of showers in the North Cascades midweek before warmer conditions return at the end of the week as upper ridging rebuilds over the region. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... More marine air has reached the interior of Western Washington this afternoon with temperatures running 3 to 5 degrees below this time yesterday. The synoptic pattern stays in place through Monday and Tuesday with zonal flow aloft and light low level onshore flow. This translates to Monday and Tuesday being virtual carbon copies of today with coastal stratus making a brief morning visit across the interior before burning off with high temperatures running within a couple degrees of seasonal averages. Models are reaching a better consensus with un upper level trough dipping southward across British Columbia on Wednesday. While conditions will remain mainly dry for most of the area, the threat of a few showers or thunderstorms remains in the cards for the North Cascades Wednesday afternoon and evening. This will remain a primary focus for fire weather concerns in the coming days. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Heights recover toward the end of the week as upper ridging rebuilds over the region. Probabilistic heat guidance continues to paint the Seattle-Tacoma metro core in 50-70% probability for Moderate HeatRisk on Friday and Saturday with widespread high temperatures in the mid and upper 80s. Model trends suggest that this may be a relatively short warm spell. Ensembles are hinting at some anomalous troughing just offshore early next week which suggests increasing onshore flow and cooler temperatures, but nothing to speak of in the precipitation department at this time. 27 && .AVIATION... Westerly flow aloft persists into Monday as low level flow remains onshore. Much like the previous couple of days, LIFR/IFR coastal stratus will spread partially inland late tonight into Monday morning before burning back to the coast midday. KSEA...VFR through the evening. Low clouds will likely return around the same time frame on Monday with a period of LIFR/IFR between 13Z and 17Z. Surface winds W/NW 7 knots or less this afternoon will back to S/SW tonight. 27 && .MARINE... Broad surface high pressure will remain largely centered over the offshore waters with lower pressure east of the Cascades through the week ahead. This will maintain onshore flow over the next several days and bring diurnally driven small craft advisory strength westerlies to the central and east Strait of Juan de Fuca daily. A series of weak systems passing to the north of the area this upcoming week may strengthen onshore flow at times for additional risks of gales along the central and eastern Strait. Seas across the coastal waters will primarily persist at 4 to 6 feet and may become steep at times under locally driven winds into Monday. Seas subside to 3 or 4 feet by Tuesday before increasing to 5 to 7 feet midweek. 27 && .FIRE WEATHER... A dry, onshore flow pattern with seasonable temperatures and persistent good to excellent overnight RH recoveries through Tuesday. Ensembles continue to very confidently show an upper level shortwave clipping the area Wednesday, with some variability in the strength of the shortwave. This continues to reinforce the scenario of thunderstorm potential Wednesday afternoon and evening for the far northern Cascades. The NBM has a 20-30% probability over the Whatcom, Skagit and Snohomish Cascades through late Wednesday evening. Warmer and continued dry conditions remain on track through the second half of the week, likely resulting in a return of elevated fire weather concerns for some areas. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Monday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. && $$

923 FXUS66 KPQR 092109 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 209 PM PDT Sun Aug 9 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry conditions continue through the upcoming week as temperatures gradually moderate towards August normals. Renewed onshore flow will keep smoke east of the Cascades, while precipitation chances remain very low through at least the middle of next week. Temperatures may trend warmer later next week as a ridge of high pressure looks to develop. && .DISCUSSION...Tonight through Saturday...Daytime highs this week are expected to be near normal for this time of year reaching into the lower to mid-80s for inland locations, upper 60s to mid 70s along the coast and in the Cascades. The cause of this is a shift in the upper level synoptic pattern has become more zonal and is expected to remain predominately zonal through at least the middle of the week. As a result, expect mostly sunny skies for inland locations with marine stratus developing along the coast before retreating by the late morning/early afternoon. This marine stratus will then return by the evening as this ebb and flow pattern looks to continue along the coast through at least Tuesday. This overall weather pattern generally remains in place through at least Tuesday. By Wednesday, ensembles are showing a general trend toward upper level troughing dropping out of British Columbia, though chances for rain here remain very low (below 5%). This could bring in some cooler temperatures for the latter part of the week, as indicated by growing uncertainty in the daytime high temperature spread into late next week. For example, the spread between the 10th and 90th percentiles on Thursday at PDX range between 77 and 92 degrees F, with Friday ranging between 81 to 96 degrees F. The cause for the very high uncertainty is because ensembles are split between upper level ridging possibly developing offshore, while others show some sort of troughing persisting over the area. Looking at WPC 500mb clusters has an almost even spread between the 4 cluster options for Friday. Cluster 1, with 29% of the models show very broad ridging developing over western CONUS. Cluster 2, with 27% of the models shows very weak troughing over the Pac NW. Cluster 3, with 25% of the models has a more robust troughing pattern over the Pac NW and Cluster 4, with 19% of the models shows a closed low developing just off the coast of Central California. Overall, near normal daytime highs looks to be in the forecast through the upcoming week, with no signs of precipitation. /42-DH && .AVIATION...Through 00Z Tue...Westerly flow aloft continues today with VFR conditions and mostly clear skies expected through the period for inland terminals. The only exception is between 11-18Z Mon for KPDX, KHIO, and KTTD, with guidance suggesting a 20-30% chance of marine stratus pushing up the Columbia River and bringing MVFR CIGs. All coastal terminals are now VFR, but some marine stratus lingers near KAST which may cause moments of MVFR CIGs (40-50% chance of MVFR). Chances for marine stratus redeveloping at the coast increase again by 03-06Z Mon, with chances around 70-90% for MVFR, 30-50% for IFR, and 10-15% for LIFR between 06-18Z Mon (highest chances at KAST). Otherwise, expect north to northwest winds with gusts up to 25 kt along the coast and up to 20 kt inland through this afternoon and evening, weakening overnight, then increasing again Mon afternoon. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR through the TAF period with clear skies. There is a 20-30% chance for stratus to develop between 11-18Z Mon. Northwest winds around 10-12 kt with gusts up to 20 kt will weaken heading into the evening. ~12 && .MARINE...High pressure offshore will maintain northerly winds through much of next week. Tightened surface pressure gradients continue to bring high chances for wind gusts up to 25 kt south of Cape Foulweather today and into early next week. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the inner and outer waters south of Cape Foulweather until 2 AM Monday. Additionally, a Small Craft Advisory for the inner waters south of Cape Foulweather has been issued from noon to 11 PM Monday. Similar small craft conditions may reoccur Tuesday however with much less confidence (30-40% chance of wind gusts up to 21 kt). Wind driven seas are expected to remain around 4 to 6 ft through most of next week. ~12/DH && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Monday for PZZ253-273. Small Craft Advisory from noon to 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ253. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

462 FXUS66 KMFR 092324 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 424 PM PDT Sun Aug 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Warm temperatures continue but decrease day to day until seasonable conditions are present in the middle of the week. * Dry weather and elevated afternoon breezes are behind continuing fire weather concerns. * Periods of smoke accumulation are expected over Klamath, Lake, and Modoc counties. * Thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast, but appear overall slight at this moment. && .DISCUSSION...Zonal flow with a slightly southwest orientation is present in the upper pattern, which will bring steadily decreasing temperatures until most areas see seasonal conditions by the middle of the week ahead. Atmospheric moisture remains low in this period of the forecast, which will keep inland skies generally clear. Onshore flow will keep a pattern of marine stratus buildup and erosion along the coast, which may keep daytime temperatures cooler than expected in areas where cloud layers endure into the afternoon. While there are no features that look to cause gusty inland winds, a series of weak disturbances following the upper flow will help to keep afternoon breezes slight elevated. This combination of dry conditions and elevated breezes will keep fire weather concerns elevated for the time being. In spite of those elevated breezes, smoke remains trapped in some low-lying areas. With westerly or southwesterly flow aloft and currently decreased fire activity, additional smoke reaching west side valleys is not expected. Calm overnight conditions look to allow for periods of smoke accumulation over Klamath, Lake, and Modoc counties. A somewhat intricate upper pattern develops towards the end of the week, with a cutoff low dropping to the south and building a trough near the Pacific coast. This pattern may bring some monsoonal moisture as well as periods of instability which makes thunderstorms a concern, but agreement on if, where, and when activity develops in the CWA is sparse. Deterministic imagery for Thursday through the weekend shows the main moisture plume shifted eastward compared to model data from 24 hours ago. Thunderstorm triggers are also somewhat lacking at the moment, leading to generally isolated afternoon and eventing thunderstorms east of the Cascades in model imagery. But confidence in any specific outcome remains slight, as any change to the expected conditions could result in more activity or the complete absence of any thunderstorm development through the weekend. -TAD && .AVIATION...10/00Z TAFs...Wildfire smoke at Klamath Falls will bring a potential for visibility reductions to MVFR in smoke and even some higher ceilings from the airport eastward tonight through Monday morning. Strong, gusty north winds up to 30 kt will occur at North Bend this afternoon/evening. Expect the marine layer to return this evening with more IFR stratus/fog during the overnight into Monday morning. Elsewhere, expect VFR conditions. Medford and Roseburg will be VFR for the next 24 hours with just some locally breezy winds this afternoon/evening (gusts to 20 kt). && .MARINE...Updated 230 PM PDT Sunday, August 9, 2026...Gusty north winds continue over area waters, with areas of gale force gusts and very steep seas south of Port Orford. Elsewhere, gusty winds and steep seas are expected. These conditions are expected to continue through Wednesday evening. Winds look to ease on Thursday but unsettled seas could continue into next weekend. -TAD && .FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM PDT Sunday, August 9, 2026...We`ll stay in a pattern of very warm, very dry, and occasionally breezy conditions today through mid week. This pattern includes overnight breezy east to northeast winds at ridge tops of SW Oregon and NW California (most notably the Coast Range and Kalmiopsis Wilderness) along with poor to moderate RH recovery. A channeling of winds down the Chetco could result in some drier/warmer conditions along the SW Oregon coast as well. Upper level ridging shifting back toward the Four Corners will allow westerly zonal flow aloft to bring lower heights and modest cooling to inland areas. Generally, the trend will be to lower daytime MaxTs down by a degree or two each day, and this should subsequently allow daytime MinRHs to be slightly higher. Even so, it`ll be dry and unstable, so any fires on the landscape will still have the ability to grow significantly, especially during the peak burning periods during the afternoons/evenings. Overnight RH recoveries haven`t been good the last couple of nights, generally only in the 20-35% range for some of the upper slopes and ridges. There should be slight nightly improvement in recoveries from NW to SE through the period. Things trend toward normal for mid next week, but temperatures still probably remain a few degrees above normal for most locations. Models and ensemble guidance continue to show a weakness or upper trough developing near or just off the California coast Wed/Thu and also show an increase in monsoonal moisture coming up from the south late week. Right now, models have lessened the risk a bit, but still bring isolated lightning chances up into NorCal around Thursday with the best chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms Fri/Sat from NorCal up the Cascades and over to the East Side. But, given plenty of uncertainty in strength of forcing mechanisms and overall instability, confidence has notched downward a bit in this forecast cycle. Keep checking back for updates since any lightning brings with it the risk of new fire starts. -Spilde && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ350-356- 370-376. && $$

077 FXUS66 KEKA 092009 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 109 PM PDT Sun Aug 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Moderate to major heat risk continues for much of the interior areas today. * Stronger afternoon valley winds and low relative humidity will elevate fire danger this weekend. * Temperatures diminish slightly next week, but most areas remain the upper 90s to around 100 through mid-week. * Heavy smoke is expected within the Trinity River Valley due low mixing heights at to the MP 18 fire. && .SYNOPSIS...High pressure aloft remains through the daytime before finally weakening to start the coming work week. Inland areas continue to see above normal temperatures with moderate to locally major heat risk and afternoon gusty winds near channeled terrain. Coastal areas will remain mostly overcast with brief clearing possible this afternoon and breezy northwest winds. && .DISCUSSION...The seemingly immovable upper level ridge that has dominated the weather for the past week or so will finally begin to give way to more zonal flow aloft this evening. However, through today, NW CA can expect continued warm to VERY hot temperatures for the inland areas. Most inland valleys and Lake County can expect high temperatures between at or near 100F today.The ongoing heat will be dangerous for anyone working outside. Everyone in the interior portions of all of Northern California should be drinking plenty of fluids and taking breaks in the shade to avoid heat stroke or heat exhaustion. The coast continues to offer some relief from this heat due to a strong marine layer and its associated stratus blanketing much of the Californian coastline. The aforementioned mentioned daytime interior heating will continue to tighten the surface pressure gradient each afternoon forcing stronger onshore (NW) sea breezes. In NW-SE situated river valleys (Trinity River Valley, Eel River Valley, areas near Clear Lake, etc.) these winds will have a higher chance to mix down to the surface. These increased winds in addition to hot and dry conditions will cause very localized critical fire weather conditions over the region. For more details, see the fire weather section below. Despite the increased surface winds, the smokey conditions within the Trinity River Valley will likely remain through midweek as the fire activity increase each afternoon. The HRRR smoke model shows smoke moving along upvalley flow before settling into valleys each night. This pattern is expected to remain through Wednesday at the earliest. Global ensemble models and 500mb clusters suggest that the midweek, zonal flow aloft will likely evolve into weak to moderate troughing by late next week. The troughing will force a cooling trend with inland temperatures struggling to break 90F by Friday. Troughing could also create an environment capable of supporting afternoon thunderstorms over the interior mountains. A lot of variability remains regarding this weather threat, such as moisture available, if the air will be stable vs unstable, or if there will be enough lift at the surface to create updrafts. Stay aware of forecast changes as more details become available through the week. && .AVIATION...Coastal stratus is continuing to dissipate across most of the North Coast. Terminals close to the shoreline will remain IFR/LIFR with minimal clearing expected this afternoon. Northerly winds are expected through the afternoon with gusts up to 15kts or so at KACV and up to 20-25kts are KCEC. Model probabilities show that more likely than not, IFR/LIFR conditions will return around 03Z (+/- 1hr) with low ceilings and degraded visibilities due to haze/mist. Inland areas are expected to remain VFR with gusty afternoon winds developing during the peak heating of the day. NW winds will likely dominate the interior areas of NW CA. Anomalously hot surface temperatures could lead to density altitude issues this afternoon as well, be aware. Finally, the Trinity River Valley and its surrounding areas will likely have IFR/IMC due to very heavy FU from the near by MP 18 Fire. Expect extremely degraded slant and surface visibilities as well as mountain obscuration near terrain for those areas. && .MARINE...Significant wave heights have been steadily building since Saturday with buoys recording widespread 8ft @ 8sec. Satellite imagery of the marine stratus and surface winds observations shows northerly nearshore winds of around 15-20kts with gusts p to 25kts. near the inner waters. The wind speeds are likely to increase further away from the coastline in the outer coastal waters. Most model data shows continued sustained winds near 30kts and gusts of 40kts possible through early this coming work week, especially for the northern outer waters. Very steep waves are to be expected leading to hazards such a blowing foam in addition to the very large seas. The biggest area of concern for the strongest winds is downwind of Cape Mendocino and Point St. George. WHile the winds will likely continue to be lighter in the inner waters with moderate to fresh breezes, waves will still be steep due to propagation from the large short period seas in the outer waters heading towards shore. These stronger northerly winds are likely to last through most of the coming work week. && .FIRE WEATHER...This afternoon, localized critical fire weather is expected for the Trinity River Valley, interior Mendocino County, and areas on the direct eastern shore of Clear Lake. This short lived threat will be due to low afternoon RH values in the low teens to single digits and increased afternoon winds with NW gusts up to 20mph or so. While winds and area coverage lack the official criteria for a Red Flag warning, it is important to remember that even a single spark could start a wildfire in these conditions. The aforementioned areas have the greatest risk due to the NW-SE oriented valleys and basins that will enhance winds mixing down to the surface through the channeled terrain and over Clear Lake. The hot, dry, and windy conditions will likely cause conditions that could fuel explosive fire growth from around 3pm - 7pm today. A slight cooling trend is expected through the coming work week. High pressure will move away from the area and very weak troughing is likely to fill in its place, setting up over the area. This troughing has the potential to funnel moisture into the area. The moisture, if it materializes over NW CA, could cause some afternoon thunderstorms for Friday and Saturday. Details on this set up are minimal now as the high pressure is still over the area, yet updates are expected through early week due to the dangerously dry fuels over the interior. && .COASTAL FLOODING...Sea levels continue to run approximately 0.8 ft above the predicted tide level in Humboldt Bay. Tides will become more amplified early this week following the lunar cycle. The predicted tide at the North Spit is 7.95 ft MLLW at 10:21 pm on Monday the 10th and then 7.99 ft MLLW at 11:17 pm on Tuesday the 11th. If the tide continues to run at around 0.8 ft above predicted, this could result in minor coastal flooding around Humboldt Bay with minor impacts in King Salmon and possibly a few other locations around the bay. The tide anomaly will continue to be watched this evening to warn of the possible hazard. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for CAZ108- 110>114-116>120. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ450-455. Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ470. Gale Warning until 10 AM PDT Monday for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

372 FXUS66 KMTR 092354 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 454 PM PDT Sun Aug 9 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1212 PM PDT Sun Aug 9 2026 - Widespread moderate with areas of major HeatRisk for the interior Sunday - Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions in the higher terrain through Monday - Minor coastal flooding for bayshore locations along the San Francisco Bay, San Pablo Bay, and Monterey Bay through Thursday morning && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1212 PM PDT Sun Aug 9 2026 (This evening through Monday night) A more compressed marine layer allowed for rapid clearing of stratus to the immediate coastline late this morning. As such, have left the Heat Advisory in place for much of the interior Bay Area and Central Coast through 10 PM this evening. However, locations under the around 500-800 foot marine layer may struggle to reach their afternoon maximum forecast temperatures. This is especially so around the San Jose region, yet the southern Santa Clara Valley has the potential. Minor coastal flooding is also expected around the time of the highest high tide (evening/overnight) for bayshore locations along the San Francisco Bay, San Pablo Bay, and Monterey Bay through Thursday morning. The decision not to include the Pacific Coast was made yesterday evening when the forecast fell below the predicted values, yet still high enough to maintain the aforementioned bays. Please see the CFW product we have out for additional details. Also, for more on the fire weather concerns through early in the week, please see the Fire Weather Section of the AFD below. During this weekend`s heat event, remember: * Stay hydrated and drink plenty of fluids. * Wear lightweight and light-colored clothing. * Reduce time spent outdoors or stay in the shade. * Never leave people or pets unattended in vehicles. * Use sunscreen if going to the coast or the pool. Afternoon temperatures are forecast to cool some 5-10 degrees on Monday as a weak shortwave trough develops off of the West Coast. As such, HeatRisk levels lower to minor with pockets of moderate. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1212 PM PDT Sun Aug 9 2026 (Tuesday through next Saturday) The troughing would also support coastal drizzle and/or mist each night and morning through late week. Temperatures cool to below normal (as much as 20 deg F below by Friday) as a reinforcing upper level through develops off of the Bay Area and Central Coast. As this low pressure approaches the coastline late in the week and monsoonal moisture advects northward around the high over the Four Corners, there is the potential for high-based convection. There remains a great deal of uncertainty of whether or not there will be enough instability aloft to support thunderstorms. While this is still far out in time and low confidence, any dry lightning would be problematic from a fire weather standpoint. Be sure to check back for additional details as we move closer to midweek. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 438 PM PDT Sun Aug 9 2026 VFR is expected to persist at all terminals except KHAF through sunset tonight, with North Bay and Bay Area terminals not expected to see MVFR/IFR ceilings until after midnight. Several offshore eddys will continue to make determining the exact timing difficult and may even create short windows of offshore flow locally, which may lead to unexpected clearing at times for coastal sites. Vicinity of SFO...VFR until after midnight when MVFR/IFR ceilings will develop with clearing expected by late morning and VFR through the remainder of the forecast period with breezy onshore flow in the afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus is already spilling over Monterey Bay into the Salinas Valley and will spread over the terminals around sunset. Expect IFR/LIFR conditons through the remainder of the overnight through late Monday morning, with VFR conditions for the remainder of the forecast period. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 438 PM PDT Sun Aug 9 2026 Fresh to strong northwest winds and rough seas up to 12 feet persist across the outer coastal waters and the inner waters north of Point Reyes through mid week. Occasional gale force gusts are possible across the far northern outer waters through midweek. Gusty onshore winds continue across the San Pablo/Suisun Bays and the Delta through Monday. Long period southerly swells at around 15 to 17 seconds continue across the southern waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1206 AM PDT Sun Aug 9 2026 Near-critical fire weather conditions persist today across the interior due to very hot and dry conditions. Strong thermal belting, extended burn periods, elevated PIG, and near or record BI/ERC values are expected. Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal with a compressed marine layer. Poor minimum daytime relative humidity as low as 10% in the afternoons with little-to- no recovery overnight is expected with nocturnal drying in the highest terrain. Even with critically dry conditions, wind is the limiting factor preventing this from being a Fire Weather Watch/Red Flag Warning event. Outside of the diurnal sea breeze that will bring breezy conditions in the afternoons and evenings through gaps and passes, onshore flow will be light. Additionally, critical conditions are not expected to meet coverage or duration requirements to warrant a product. Localized elevated fire weather conditions in the highest terrain can be expected Monday due to the combination of recent hot/dry conditions and the increase in onshore flow. Depending how the pattern and marine layer evolves, a headline may be warranted and this could last through Wednesday. Sarment && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506- 508-529-530. Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for CAZ503-504-510- 512>518. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....RGass AVIATION...JM MARINE...Kennedy Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

336 FXUS66 KOTX 092322 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA Issued by National Weather Service Seattle WA 422 PM PDT Sun Aug 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Fire weather conditions will remain elevated along the Cascade gaps today due to low RHs and breezy westerly winds. - Widespread smoke and haze will continue to impact the region today. Some improvement is expected, except in the vicinity of or downwind of ongoing wildfires. Temperatures may be lowered locally in areas of smoke. - Elevated fire conditions continue through the first part of the week with potential breezy winds down the Okanogan Valley. && .SYNOPSIS... Zonal flow aloft will allow for a shortwave to pass through the region tonight into Monday and will continue to promote elevated fire weather conditions along the Cascade gaps. Widespread smoke and haze will continue to impact the region over the next few days, especially in the vicinity of or downwind of regional wildfires. A quasi-zonal upper level pattern will continue through the first half of the week, bringing periods of breezy westerly winds and some slightly cooler temperatures to the region. A trough skirting by to the north may bring some precipitaiton chances to northern portions of the area by mid to late week. && .DISCUSSION... Today: Another round of breezy westerly winds look to develop this afternoon and evening as another shortwave traverses the region. This will again lead to elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions in the Wenatchee area and the Waterville Plateau with gusts around 20-35 mph and relative humidities generally between 15-25 percent. The wildcard remains smoke reducing temperatures in those areas, which would help reduce fire risk. Elsewhere, expect temperatures to cool a few degrees today under the influence of zonal flow aloft and another passing shortwave. Wildfire smoke and haze will continue to impact the region, especially in the vicinity of or downwind of ongoing wildfires. Monday and Tuesday: Zonal flow will continue through at least Tuesday, bringing near normal temperatures to the region and breezy winds to the Cascade gaps in the late afternoons and evenings. Localized smoke/haze may bring temperatures down a few degrees each day Fire conditions will remain elevated due to low RH and breezy winds, with winds increasing each afternoon and evening. Wednesday through Sunday: Confidence in the forecast decreases heading into the second half of the week as a broad shortwave trough sinks down from British Columbia. This system may bring the first chance of precipitation in a few weeks to northern areas near the Canadian border by Wednesday. While there is a 15-25% chance of showers, preciptiation continues to looks to remain rather weak with this system and may not provide any real wetting rains at this time. Additionally, there is a slight chance of (10-20%) of thunderstorms in northeast WA and northern ID both Wednesday and Thursday afternoon and evenings. Quasi- zonal flow will then briefly return on Friday as the trough to the north exits the area. Ensemble guidance remains indicative of an upper level trough developing along the coast over the weekend and bringing southwest flow aloft to the area. This could continue to raise further concerns for thunderstorms across the region by the weekend. && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFs: Smoke and haze from regional wildfires will continue to bring reduced visibilities and ceilings to the TAF sites this afternoon. The majority of the sites are seeing MVFR to localized IFR in spots with low vsbys (KGEG and KMWH). W/NW winds have started to increase this afternoon and will likely remain into the evening, with KEAT likely to see the strongest wind gusts, generally up to 20 to 25 kt. Latest guidance does seem to suggest improving smoke vsbys later this evening into the overnight, which could put some terminals into VFR during this time. Lowered conditions will likely return Monday morning due to smoke/haze. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in smoke and haze continuing to impact the area terminals on Sunday, but low confidence in extent of reduced vis/cigs. Moderate confidence in the winds. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 55 85 55 86 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 54 84 53 84 53 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 48 83 48 83 48 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 59 90 59 90 60 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 48 86 46 86 47 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 20 Sandpoint 51 82 49 83 49 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 53 81 52 81 53 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 55 89 55 89 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 63 89 62 89 62 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 59 90 58 89 59 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Air Quality Alert until 11 AM PDT Wednesday for Central Chelan County-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area- Northeast Blue Mountains-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Chelan County-Western Okanogan County. ID...Air Quality Alert until 11 AM PDT Tuesday for Central Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse- Northern Panhandle. Air Quality Alert until 3 PM PDT Monday for Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area. && $$

862 FXUS66 KPDT 092301 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 401 PM PDT Sun Aug 9 2026 .Updated Aviation Discussion. .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Dry, warm and breezy conditions will persist through the weekend and beginning of the week 2. Pattern shift mid-week could bring precipitation && .DISCUSSION... Current satellite shows mostly clear skies with smoke lingering in some areas around the wildfires. Smoke will continue to linger through the period but with the increased winds, will not settle to heavily at the surface. Dry and warm conditions will persist through the week as westerly flow aloft continues over the region. Westerly flow will continue through the weekend and beginning of next week with temperatures becoming slightly cooler. In house calculations shows much of the region to still be above seasonal average at 5 to 10 for today steadily decreasing to near 5 degrees above normal by Monday. As the temperatures begin to decrease, relative humidity will begin to increase. This will bring the area out of critical fire weather conditions but will still remain elevated. Winds are expected to remain 10 to 15 mph and gusting between 25 to 35 mph through at least Tuesday with 70-80% of the NBM raw ensembles in agreement. . Models are coming into slight agreement with a pattern change by mid- week. Models are showing an upper level trough making its way into the region with a Four Corners High set up to the south. This has the potential to bring in some monsoonal moisture as well as some instability. NBM model shows there to be chances (20-30%) for some isolated showers across central OR and the eastern mountains. There is also chances of isolated thunderstorms Friday afternoon. However, with this being day six, confidence is rather low and we will continue to monitor a the event draws near. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... VFR conditions currently across most sites, with KYKM being the only terminal experiencing MVFR conditions due to reduced visibility of 3-4SM related to smoke from the nearby wildfires. Breezy winds of 10-15kts with gusts of 15-25kts for KDLS/KRDM/KBDN/KYKM, decreasing later this evening. 75 && .FIRE WEATHER... The region will remain with elevated fire weather through the period as there is some breezy with areas of low relative humidity. This pattern will persist through mid-week before giving way to an upper level trough that will bring breezier conditions as well as the potential for mid level moisture and instability. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 89 55 88 53 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 91 61 89 60 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 92 57 91 56 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 93 59 91 58 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 91 59 90 57 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 88 56 84 56 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 90 45 88 45 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 92 53 89 52 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 93 52 90 51 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 90 60 88 59 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Air Quality Alert until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for WAZ024-026>030- 521>523. OR...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for ORZ041-044-049-050- 502-503-505>511. && $$ DISCUSSION...90 AVIATION...75 FIRE WEATHER...90

893 FXUS65 KREV 091959 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1259 PM PDT Sun Aug 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Significant heat persists today across western Nevada and lower Sierra valleys, with a gradual cooling trend expected next week. * Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and Monday, with increasing coverage and chances by mid-week. * Increased breezes elevate fire and recreation concerns today and Monday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... The prolonged period of significant heat will continue through Monday morning across the region, particularly for western Nevada and lower Sierra valleys. Temperatures cool slightly on Monday, though a more noticeable cooling trend begins Tuesday, with temperatures dipping below seasonal averages by Wednesday. A broad upper-level ridge centered over the Four Corners region continues to dominate the weather pattern today, maintaining above-normal temperatures. Daytime highs today and Monday will generally be in the upper 90s to 104F for lower valleys, with Sierra communities seeing upper 80s to low 90s. Overnight lows will continue to offer little relief due to lingering cloud cover, remaining in the mid 60s to low 70s across western Nevada valleys through Monday morning. Increased afternoon breezes are expected today and Monday afternoon, with W/SW gusts of 25-30 mph (locally 35+ mph), particularly along the Sierra Front and across far NE California/NW Nevada. This will elevate fire weather concerns today and Monday for those areas, especially due to active, ongoing wildfires across western NV. Haze and areas of smoke from regional wildfires will also persist across western NV and into NE CA today and Monday. Hi-res model soundings in the pre-convective environment show residual mid-level moisture atop a deep, well-mixed subcloud layer, supporting isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. The greatest chances (10-30%) will be confined to areas south of I-80, including Mono, S.Lyon, Mineral, and Churchill counties. DCAPE values of 1400-1800 J/kg and LCL heights 3000-4000m support the potential for strong outflow winds, which remain the primary hazard with today`s activity. Gusts of 45-55 mph and isolated severe gusts of 60+ mph possible, especially in S.Lyon, Mineral, and S. Churchill counties. A very low (5%) chance of localized flash flooding exists, mainly in higher/steeper terrain that received previous rainfall. Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to continue early this week over Mono/Mineral counties, then increase each day from mid-week through the weekend. With chances for multiple days of repeated showers and thunderstorms, flash flooding concerns will increase across portions of the eastern Sierra and Mineral County, especially over urban areas and steep terrain. While t-storms late in the week are favored to be on the wetter side with PWATs 0.6-0.9", new lightning ignitions and gusty outflow winds cannot be ruled out. Model guidance generally agrees on this overall trend of increasing moisture and convective activity, with the main uncertainties revolving around the exact timing and spatial distribution of the heaviest rainfall. -Justin && .AVIATION... Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast this afternoon for KMMH and KHTH with chances increasing to 10-30%. Strong, erratic outflow gusts of 40-50 kts, brief heavy rain, and occasional lightning are the main hazards with any thunderstorms. Chances decrease to 15% or less Monday afternoon and favor a similar area as today. Smoke filtering down into far NW NV and NE CA from wildfires in Oregon may reduce slantwise visibilities across those areas. Conditions are expected to improve in the afternoon hours due to afternoon breezes diffusing it, then smoke will settle again in the overnight hours. This will likely continue into Monday, possibly Tuesday as well. KRNO may have a higher likelihood of smoke impacts to slantwise visibility due to the Bug Fire and other fires north of Reno. Otherwise, widespread VFR conditions and typical afternoon breezes prevail this weekend with continued heat posing density altitude concerns. -Jyler && .FIRE WEATHER... Breezy W/SW winds with gusts of 25-35 mph and RH reductions to 5-15% will support 2-5 hours of elevated to marginally critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and Monday afternoon across far NE California and NW Nevada -- including the Bug, Ironwood, Fred, and Ruby fires in the Sierra Front. Nighttime recoveries remain poor each night through Tuesday AM as RH struggles to exceed 30-40%, extending burn periods into the overnight hours. There is a low 10-30% probability of thunderstorms south of I-80 today and Monday afternoon, posing a risk of new lightning ignitions and strong and erratic outflow gusts of 50+ mph. Moreover, an unstable airmass will allow for deeper vertical plume growth each afternoon, increasing the likelihood of locally stronger inflow winds near the fire, and sudden/erratic downdraft winds from collapsing plumes. A pattern change brings cooler temperatures and higher humidity from Tuesday onward, but also increasing chances of thunderstorms. Thunderstorms are favored to be wet with heavy rain/flooding impacts to operations, but new lightning starts and gusty outflow winds cannot be ruled out. -Salas && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Heat Advisory until 8 AM PDT Monday NVZ001-003-005. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 AM PDT Monday NVZ004. CA...Heat Advisory until 8 AM PDT Monday CAZ070-071. && $$

730 FXUS66 KSTO 092033 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 133 PM PDT Sun Aug 9 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread Moderate to areas of Major HeatRisk continue through today. - Gradual cooling trend Monday onward with more seasonable temperatures and periods of breezy onshore winds through the week. - Elevated Fire Weather Conditions in the northern Sacramento Valley, Burney Basin, Sierra, and adjacent Foothills through Monday due to hot temperatures, low humidities and increased breezes. - Isolated thunderstorm (15%) chances along the Sierra Crest south of Interstate 50 this afternoon and evening. - Monsoonal moisture will bring increasing chances of mountain thunderstorms Tuesday through Saturday, peaking on Thursday. && .DISCUSSION...The heat wave is expected to continue through today, with widespread triple-digit high temperatures across the Valley and foothills. There is a widespread Moderate HeatRisk and areas of Major HeatRisk across interior NorCal. The heat will impact anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 10 PM this evening for the Valley and foothills, as well as mountain locations north of Highway 50. Elevated fire weather conditions continue through Monday due to hot, dry, and breezy winds conditions in the northern Sacramento Valley, Sierra foothills, and Burney Basin. Low relative humidities in the single digits to teen`s percent are forecast today for the mentioned areas. Additional elevated fire weather concerns today for the Sierra Crest south of Highway 50 due to 10-15% isolated thunderstorm chances this afternoon and evening, with the majority of the activity remaining east of the crest. The upper-level ridge over the Four Corner will begin to breaks down on Monday, while a mid- to upper- level shortwave trough develops off the West Coast. Onshore flow is expected to increase in response, providing a broader overnight relief and increasing humidity values. Resulting in slightly cooler temperatures on Monday, with more seasonable temperatures on Tuesday. Ensembles continue to suggest the upper-level trough settles over the region by middle week, bringing more widespread cooling, with near to below normal temperatures and Minor HeatRisk area wide late in the week. Monsoonal moistures will bring increasing chances of mountain thunderstorms Tuesday through Saturday, with the highest chances (25-35%) Thursday. There is a 30-60% chance of wetting rain over the Sierra Crest south of Highway 80 on Thursday, with 15-30% chances over far northern Sierra and into the southern Cascades. Additional, there is low chances (10%) for thunderstorms over the Sierra foothill as well on Thursday. Elevated fire weather is expected Tuesday through the weekend from thunderstorm fire starts. Stay tuned for updates! && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours. Winds generally remain 12 kts or less at TAF sites. West to southwest gusts up to 20 kts in the Delta from 00Z through 12Z Monday. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for Burney Basin- Butte County Below 1000 ft-C. San Joaquin County including Stockton-C. Stanislaus County including Modesto-C. Yolo/NE Solano including Woodland-Central Colusa County Incl. I-5- Central Glenn Co & Interstate 5-Central Motherlode 1000-3000 ft- E. Diablo Range Above 1000 ft-E. Shasta /S. Cascades Above 3000 ft-Eastern Colusa County-Eastern Glenn County-Glenn/Colusa Coast Range Above 3000 ft-Lassen Volcanic NP-N. Motherlode 1000-3000 ft-N. Sac Valley in Tehama County-NE San Joaquin Valley Below 1000 ft-Sac Metro/W. El Dorado/Amador County-San Joaquin County Delta-Shasta County Foothills 1000-3000 ft-Shasta Lake Area & 1- 5 1000-3000 ft-Shasta Metro-Sierra (Cal-Tuo) 3000-5000 ft-Sierra (Sierra-Placer) Above 5000 ft-Sierra (Tehama-Plumas) 1000-3000 ft-Sierra (Tehama-Plumas) Above 3000 ft-Sierra (Yuba-Placer) 3000-5000 ft-Sierra 3000-5000 ft-Southern Motherlode 1000-3000 ft-Sutter/Yuba counties below 1000 ft-Tehama Co Coast Range Above 3000 ft-Tracy Triangle Below 1000 ft-W Tehama Co Foothills 1000-3000 ft-W. Glenn/Colusa Foothills 1000-3000 ft-W. Shasta County 1000-3000 ft-W. Shasta County Above 3000 ft-W. Stanislaus County Above 1000 ft & I-5-W. Yolo County including Capay/I-505- Yolo / Solano County Hills. && $$

380 FXUS65 KMSO 092040 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 240 PM MDT Sun Aug 9 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Widespread smoke continues to degrade air quality and visibility, with Northwest Montana currently seeing the worst impacts. - Elevated to near-critical fire weather continues across Southwest Montana through Monday. Wind gusts up to 30 mph are expected around Dillon Monday afternoon. - A gradual cooling trend arrives by the middle of next week. A disturbance late Wednesday into Thursday will bring rain and thunderstorm chances, primarily along the Continental Divide. The Northern Rockies will remain under the influence of a dry westerly flow aloft through early next week. Regional wildfire smoke has settled heavily across the area, particularly across Northwest Montana where visibility at the Kalispell airport has remained near 2 miles. Smoke is expected to remain anchored in the valleys through the afternoon, though we may see some improvement in visibility and air quality by Monday as winds begin to increase. Monday remains our primary fire weather concern. A subtle feature will move through the area, slightly increasing winds while relative humidities remain quite low. Southwest Montana will be the focal point for this concern, particularly around Dillon, where afternoon wind gusts up to 30 mph are forecast. This will create near-critical fire weather conditions across the Southwest, with a few isolated spots in the higher terrain potentially reaching Red Flag criteria. Winds are expected to diminish on Tuesday, though dry and warm conditions will persist. A gradual cooling trend will continue through the remainder of the week. By Wednesday, a disturbance will make its way into the region, bringing a noticeable wind shiftstarting out of the north in Northwest Montana before transitioning across the majority of the area by Thursday. This system will also bring widespread chances for precipitation and thunderstorms late Wednesday into Thursday. The best probabilities for beneficial moisture will be focused along the Continental Divide, with Marias Pass having the highest chances. Because this precipitation will be primarily convective, amounts will be hit-and-miss. The highest potential for measurable rain favors Northwest, West Central, and Southwest Montana, while Idaho will likely see very little. By Friday and into next weekend, the focus for thunderstorm activity will shift south into Southwest Montana as the region transitions into a southwesterly flow pattern. && .AVIATION...Widespread wildfire smoke will remain the primary hazard across the regional airspace. Surface visibility will continue to fluctuate between 2 to 6 miles. Light and variable winds through the rest of today into the overnight will transition back to gusty westerly winds for Monday afternoon, most notably at KBTM where gusts to 20 knots are expected. High density altitudes will also persist at higher elevation airfields with warm temperatures in the afternoon and early evening hours. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

044 FXUS65 KBOI 092339 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 539 PM MDT Sun Aug 9 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Continued hot, dry, and smoky into Tuesday. - Breezy afternoon winds through Tuesday. - Gradual cooling through the week. - Increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and beyond, especially on the Idaho side. && .SHORT TERM /Through Tuesday Night/... Issued 200 PM MDT SUN AUG 9 2026 Hot, dry, smoky weather will continue through Tuesday, although not as hot as previous days as high pressure aloft gradually weakens over the Great Basin. Southern Twin Falls County will remain on the northern fringe of monsoon moisture with isolated thunderstorms late today and again late Monday. Westerly winds aloft will change to southwesterly Tuesday as an upper trough deepens off the northwest coast. This change will allow monsoon moisture to move northward across the NV/ID border for a 15-20% chance of showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday, continuing in Twin Falls County Tuesday night. Smoke continues to stream across our CWA mainly from the Big Grass fire (in southern Malheur County and western Owyhee County), and from the Wright Springs fire in south-central Oregon. Latest RRFS model forecasts less smoke in our CWA by Tuesday but confidence is low. && .LONG TERM /Wednesday through Sunday/... Issued 200 PM MDT SUN AUG 9 2026 High pressure will build over the Desert Southwest as a weak trough moves into the West Coast on Wednesday. This will bring southwest flow over the region, which will cool temperatures slightly, as the high pressure center shifts further east. Monsoonal moisture will advect northward, but long range models keep the best chances of associated showers and thunderstorms to our south and east through Thursday. By Friday, models substantially increase precipitation coverage over high terrain through the weekend. The Central Idaho Mountains and high terrain along the Nevada border will see the best chance for showers and thunderstorms (20-40% chance). Warm and breezy conditions will continue through the weekend, with temperatures slightly below normal through the weekend. High temperatures in the valleys will range from the mid to upper 80s through Saturday, with high temperatures in the mountains in the mid to upper 70s. && .AVIATION /00Z Monday through Tuesday/... Issued 533 PM MDT SUN AUG 9 2026 Generally VFR with periods of MVFR conditions possible mainly near KONO-KEUL in thicker wildfire smoke this evening through Monday morning. Mountains obscured in smoke. High density altitude from heat through sunset. Surface winds: W-NW 5-10 kt, variable less than 10 kt overnight. Winds aloft at 10kft: W-SW 10-20 kt. KBOI...General improvement to VFR conditions. Foothills still obscured in smoke. High density altitude from heat continuing through sunset. Surface winds: NW 6-8 kt, becoming variable less than 6 kt overnight. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Air Quality Alert until 1 PM MDT Monday for IDZ011>015-028-029- 033. OR...Air Quality Alert until 1 PM MDT /noon PDT/ Monday for ORZ061>064. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....JY SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....LC

843 FXUS65 KLKN 092151 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 251 PM PDT Sun Aug 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Moderate to major risk for heat-related illnesses for most of Northern and Central Nevada today * A few strong thunderstorms possible in parts of Northern and Central Nevada through this evening * Monsoon weather pattern for Central and Eastern Nevada expected to continue through the next week * Slow cooling trend expected Monday through Friday && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Sunday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Current radar loop is showing a fairly active period. Convective activity began late this morning across portions of US Highway 50 and also over portions of Elko county and northern White Pine county. Storm motion with the cells across the central portion of the forecast area are clocking in at 5 to 10 knots. The cells in central Nevada are of the mix wet/dry variety but will transition to mostly wet by later this afternoon and evening. The cells further north are expected to be more on the dry side due to a warmer air mass. The main threats from these storms are cloud to ground lightning strikes possibly creating new fire starts, brief moderate rainfall, and wind gusts to 55 mph. In addition to the above threats, the heat headlines will also continue for all the area through 11pm tonight. The exception is zone 033, where the extreme heat warning will continue until 11pm Monday evening. Overnight lows will be in the 50s and 60s. The large upper level ridge over the four corners region will continue to remain in its location for the next day or two. This will keep a fairly weak southerly to southwesterly flow aloft across the forecast area. Models are hinting at a weak upper level trough developing along the western coast of the United States. A weak southwest flow is expected that will shunt some of the subtropical moisture east, especially over northern Nevada. This will bring a decrease in the convective activity across the north, though activity is expected to continue in central Nevada as evident by the decreasing precipitable water values in the north. Highs in the north will be a degree or three cooler with readings in the low to upper 90s expected over the area. Winds will be breezy especially over the north with gusts 25 to 30 mph. Isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected mainly across the US Highway 50 corridor with some activity reaching southern Elko county. Main threats will be the cloud to ground lightning strikes and wind gusts to 50 mph. Look for activity to gradually wane during the overnight hours with lows in the 50s and 60s. By Tuesday, all models show the slow strengthening of the upper trough across the western United States with the four corners ridge maintaining its position. Convective activity will again be confined to those locales along the US Highway 50 corridor. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to again cool by several degrees with readings in the low to mid 90s. Winds will be breezy during the afternoon with gusts of 20 to 25 mph. Overnight lows will be in the 50s. On Wednesday, a weak disturbance is expected to push across northern and central Nevada during afternoon and evening. This looks like it will lead to an uptick in the convective activity as guidance is showing a fifty to seventy percent chance of showers and thunderstorms during this time frame. WPC is highlighting this time with an area expansion northward of the excessive rainfall outlook. Will need to continue looking at this event as it unfolds for moderate to locally brief heavy rainfall. Storm motions at this time are forecast to be around seven to 14 knots. Highs in the afternoon will further cool with readings in the 80s and 90s. Shower activity will continue into the overnight with lows in the 50s. Thursday through Sunday, models continue to show a daily pattern of shower and thunderstorm activity with high temperatures continuing to cool. Readings are expected to drop into the 80s by next weekend with lows in the 50s. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Near term forecast modifications were required to the PoP, weather, wind speed, and wind gust grids to account for fire weather and storm development in the northeastern parts of the forecast area while bumping up PoP chances in central Nevada. In the short term, similar changes were made to the aforementioned elements. Confidence remains high on a cooling trend as afternoon and evening thunderstorms continue in central Nevada with slightly cooler air in the north. Confidence is currently moderate for Wednesday`s convective development. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected to continue across all terminals over the next 24 hour period. VCTS chances remain this evening at KELY, KEKO, and KENV. Strong gusty convective wind gust of 45KT can be expected from nearby thunderstorms, especially at the above listed terminals. Convection expected again tomorrow with VCTS at KELY with gusts to 20-25KT across the northern terminals KWMC-KBAM- KEKO-KENV. && .FIRE WEATHER...Elevated fire weather conditions will continue across portions of northern Nevada this afternoon and tomorrow due to west wind gusts near 25 mph and minimum relative humidity values as low as seven percent. Current radar is depicting scattered showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms in central Nevada (storms appearing more on the wet side), mainly across fire zones 425 and 427, with storms more isolated and slightly drier in nature across 469 and 470. Storm coverage is expected to be confined in the central zones tomorrow, including the southern portions of 470) and Tuesday, with a distinct ramping up of convection for Wednesday as southerly flow continues to push moisture north. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for NVZ031-034-035 Excessive Heat Warning until 11 PM PDT Sunday NVZ030-036>041 Excessive Heat Warning until 11 PM PDT Monday NVZ033 && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...86 FIRE WEATHER...86