Should I care about weather forecasts with a low chance of a severe event?

“If there is such a low chance, why should I care?” Our meteorologist responds to questions about low-probability events that could have a high impact, like flooding. She offers advice on how weather information that includes a range of possible outcomes can help people to be more prepared for high-impact events and to have a backup plan.

How can weather forecasts help me decide if it is safe to head out?

“Should we travel if there is a small chance of a lot of snow? Grandma wants to know if we are coming!” Our meteorologist helps us reflect on our own ‘dealbreaker’ conditions, or thresholds for safe travel, when there is a chance that the conditions will be hazardous. She reminds us that we already use probabilities in other areas of our life every day. Then, she helps us understand that forecasts that include percent chance encourage us to operate within our personal comfort zone, where we have a better chance of staying safe in bad weather.

Can I trust weather forecasts with the probability of thunderstorms?

“Why should I make a backup plan for thunderstorms when I don’t always see lightning?” Our meteorologist explains why we can’t predict the exact location where that lightning will strike. She responds to questions about trusting the forecast if previous ones have seemed “off” and points out how important backup plans can be.

Why do weather forecast maps show the probability of temperature?

“Wait – this map doesn’t show the predicted temperature – instead it shows the chance that it will freeze?” Our meteorologist clarifies the difference between maps that show the temperature forecast and those that show the percent chance of a hard freeze or excessive heat. She explains why forecasts that provide a range of possible outcomes are needed for different people across a community, and she helps us consider not only the impact that the weather might have on our own lives but also the possible impacts on others who are more vulnerable to the weather.

Example Probabilistic Graphics

We love probabilistic graphics, yes we do! Here is an example of what a general probabilistic forecast could look like. What do you think? Let us know. Click on any image to view full resolution. Note: These graphics are experimental and we welcome any feedback.

Winter Weather

Probabilistic messaging gives you information to inform you on what you can expect, plan for and prepare for; for any weather situation!

Cold Weather

Outdoor plans? Have a garden? Waiting on the school bus? Probabilistic messaging can show you when the chances are the highest for reaching a certain temperature!

Wind

Have a trampoline? Inflatable decorations? Pulling a trailer? See when the probabilities are highest for certain wind gusts!