A Sample of the WFO Tulsa Hazardous Weather Outlooks issued for Dec 9-10 Ice Storm.

Notes: First forecast on Tuesday Dec 4 with use of word significant on Thursday Dec 6 for weekend event. ECMWF far exceeded GFS in model of choice forecasting the event and was noted as such by forecasters at Tulsa.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
509 AM CST TUE DEC 4 2007

....

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY... HOWEVER LIMITED
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PRECLUDE ANY RAIN. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PASSING TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY WILL OFFER LOW CHANCES FOR
RAIN MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES
MORE ACTIVE AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THE WEEKEND. A
SHALLOW...BUT STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY.
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...A WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENT IN THE FORM OF
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SUNDAY
AND INTO MONDAY.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND DISCUSSIONS
CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.
$$

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1146 PM CST WED DEC 5 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

....

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A COLD AIRMASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND...
RESULTING IN SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES LATE SUNDAY AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SEVERAL WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION...WHICH MAY FALL PRIMARILY AS FREEZING
RAIN OR SLEET ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY AS YET ANOTHER WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND
DISCUSSIONS CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.
$$

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
508 AM CST THU DEC 6 2007

....

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
WARM ADVECTION ENSUES AND MOISTURE INCREASES. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY...AND WILL LIKELY STALL ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A STRONGER SHOT OF COLD AIR
WILL EFFECTIVELY PUSH THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY
LATE SUNDAY. A MUCH COLDER...BUT SHALLOW AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY SUNDAY. A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW. A LARGE AREA
OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION NORTH OF
THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE THERMAL PROFILE STILL
SUGGESTS THAT MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL SEE PERIODS OF
FREEZING RAIN AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SHALLOW COLD AIR
WILL BE SLOW TO MODERATE AND PIECES OF UPPER ENERGY EJECT FROM THE
UPPER LOW...WHICH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR FREEZING
RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA .

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT GROUPS AND OTHER INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND DISCUSSIONS CONCERNING WINTER
WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.
$$

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
110 PM CST THU DEC 6 2007

...SIGNIFICANT ICING EVENT POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION
BEGINNING BY SATURDAY NIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WINTER WEATHER.
ICE ACCUMULATION.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...MAINLY NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.
ONSET...AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN DEVELOPING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE COULD BRIEFLY DIP TO NEAR
FREEZING...RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT NEAR
THE KANSAS BORDER.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS SHAPING UP FOR PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIFT SLOWLY
NORTH ON SATURDAY...RESULTING IN A LARGE TEMPERATURE SPREAD ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLDER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THE BOUNDARY BACK SOUTH INTO
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
FRONT IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE COLD SHALLOW AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS MUCH OF REGION
BY SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
MOIST LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD OVERRIDE THIS COOL
AIRMASS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IMPULSES OF
ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. UPPER SYSTEM COULD RESULT
IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

AT THIS TIME...AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44 APPEAR TO HAVE
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
THERE STILL REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION...SO INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND DISCUSSIONS CONCERNING THIS
POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.
$$