November 2014 Climate and Hydrology Summary

Tulsa: November 2014 was the 11th coldest (45.1°F; since 1905), the 58th wettest (2.10"; since 1888), and the 20th snowiest (0.4"; since 1900) November on record.

Tulsa: Daily records set or tied this month include a record cold minimum temperature.

Fort Smith: November 2014 was the 11th coldest (46.6°F, tied 1993; since 1882), the 35th driest (1.58"; since 1882), and the 18th snowiest (Trace, tied several years; since 1883) November on record.

Fayetteville: November 2014 was the 6th coldest (41.9°F; since 1949), the 29th driest (2.50"; since 1949), and the 15th snowiest (Trace, tied several years; since 1949) November on record.

Using the radar-derived estimated observed precipitation from the RFCs, rainfall totals for November 2014 ranged from around 1” to around 4” across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. The majority of the area received 1.5”-3” of rain this month. The entire area, except for Okfuskee County, received below normal rainfall this month, only getting 10%-90% of the normal November rain. Much of Choctaw and Sebastian Counties, as well as portions of Pushmataha, Le Flore, and far southern Franklin Counties, only received 10%-25% of the normal rainfall this month. Okfuskee County ended the month at 100% to just over 125% of normal for November.

November 2014 was a dry, cold month across eastern OK and northwest AR, with the average monthly temperature running about 5°F below normal.

A strong cold front brought the first snow of the season to eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas on the 16th. A large portion of the area received a trace to half an inch of snow. Two bands of heavier bands of 1”-3” of snow developed, one near the Oklahoma/Kansas state line and the other along the I-40 corridor in east central Oklahoma. Liquid equivalent totals were only around 0.10” or less.

According to the Drought Monitor from December 2, 2014, Severe Drought (D2) conditions were occurring across portions of southeastern Osage, eastern Pawnee, northern Creek, and far western Tulsa Counties in eastern Oklahoma. Moderate Drought (D1) conditions were present across portions of Osage, Pawnee, eastern Kay, western Tulsa, and Creek Counties in eastern Oklahoma. Abnormally Dry (D0), but not experiencing drought, conditions existed across areas of Osage, far southern Washington, Tulsa, far southern Creek, northern Okmulgee, far southern Le Flore, Pushmataha, and Choctaw Counties in eastern Oklahoma. Drought/abnormally dry conditions were not present in northwest Arkansas.

According to the Oklahoma Climatological Survey, November 2014 was the 37th driest for northeast Oklahoma, the 44th driest for east central Oklahoma, and the 24th driest for southeast Oklahoma. Records go back to 1921. From January 1-November 30, 2014, northeast Oklahoma ranked as the 19th driest, east central Oklahoma was the 26th driest, and southeast Oklahoma was the 33rd driest year-to-date period.

Outlook

The Climate Prediction Center CPC outlook for December 2014 (issued November 30, 2014) indicates an enhanced chance for above median precipitation across all of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, with the highest chances along and south of I-40. This outlook also indicates a slightly enhanced chance for above normal temperatures across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, except along the Red River, where there is an equal chance for above, near, and below normal temperatures. This outlook is based on short-range forecasts of expected weather conditions, primarily during the first part of the month when a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) circulation is expected to be in place. A positive NAO usually causes the southern U.S. to be warmer than climatology.

The Climate Prediction Center CPC outlook for the 3-month period December-January-February 2014-15 indicates an enhanced chance for below normal temperatures across all of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. This outlook also indicates a slightly enhanced chance for above median rainfall across far southeast Oklahoma, and equal chances for above, near, and below median precipitation across the rest of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas (outlook issued November 20, 2014). This outlook is based on both statistical and dynamical forecast tools and considering weak El Niño conditions.

According to CPC, current atmospheric observations continue to indicate ENSO neutral conditions; however, the oceanic observations are suggestive of El Niño conditions. Taken together, the observations indicate ENSO-neutral conditions remain. Forecast models still indicate the development of El Niño, but the continued weak atmospheric response this late in the season suggests that a weak El Niño event is most probable. CPC is forecasting a 60% chance for El Niño development and a 40% chance for a continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions through the winter.